25/11/2016 Newsnight


In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis.

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They argued about the common market after the 1975 referendum.


Are you suggesting that from now on, you and others who feel


like you should continue a Parliamentary struggle to get


And the arguments continue after the June vote as well.


Experts and economics have continued to divide opinion


A former Chancellor and one of his former advisors


are on different sides of the debate.


As the scandal over child sex abuse within football escalates,


we ask whether football's governing body did enough to


Also tonight, Erdogan overcame the coup in Turkey months ago.


But his purge of public servants continues.


We hear from one man caught up in it.


So they accused you of being a Gulenist simply on the strength


of finding one book by him in your university office?


Yes, I mean, that's the only evidence they can talk of.


And tomorrow is the 40th birthday of this...


# We're so pretty, Oh, so pretty


Has punk gone all establishment on us?


One prediction made before June was that our Brexit referendum


It's one of the predictions that has come true.


Sir John Major and Tony Blair have both weighed into the debate,


suggesting that there may sometime be a second referendum.


Brexiteers, meanwhile, have rejoiced at good economic news


that they say defies the doom-laden predictions of experts.


Business investment grew in the months after the referendum.


The experts had expected it to shrink as companies


And on this Black Friday, it is right to point out that


consumer spending has been holding up, too.


At the end of this Autumn Statement week, is it game over?


Time for re-moaners to get back in their box?


List of the claims about Brexit, and there were many, concerned the


long-term effects. -- most of it. Sorry to say we know nothing more


about the long-term effects now than we did back then. But some of the


claims did concern the short term. Remember these two? They made some


predictions based on expert work at the Treasury. This is what happens


if Britain leaves. The economy shrinks, the value of the powder


falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, real wages are hit, as are


house prices, and as a result, government borrowing goes up...


Let's hear those again. This is what happens if Britain leaves. The


economy shrinks. This one really has failed to materialise so far. It


does look like being a slowdown next year but far from a recession. This


was the most important claim and I think we can declare it on course to


be false. But there was another important claim. The value of


sterling falls. It is currently down 11% but has been as low as 16. I


think we can now declare that one true. Inflation rises... Thanks to


the falling sterling, that does look likely... To- to now. House prices


are hit... House prices have not shown any sign of falling. Is that


where it ends? And as a result, government borrowing goes up. That


one is kind of true relative to Budget predictions, but as yet,


nothing to do with Brexit. Ignore this one and you have a draw. Oxford


Street is buzzing on a Black Friday evening. And that is a Leave win.


But it would be silly to deride the forecasters. They know better than


anyone because what they do is have an intelligent stab at what we know


about the future. They cannot give a precise and definitive guide as to


what will happen. The good news we had on business investment today...


Don't read too much into one quarter's data.


Here's the graph of business investment growth over the last few


years. In such an erratic series, would you read much into the little


bar on the far right-hand side? For some, that figure, published today,


is Brexit is working. You might as well stand on the


seashore trying to work out whether the tide is coming or going.


Excitedly commenting on each wave as it comes in! No, stop overthinking


it, get a cup of tea. We will know in time.


Let's talk now to the former Chancellor of


And in Cardiff is the Economist Professor Patrick Minford.


He was one of the so-called wise men advising Ken Clarke. Ken Clarke,


what is your appraisal of the evidence? Do you concede at least


some of the more you read fears have failed to materialise and we can


relax on those? I didn't campaign on new rich short-term fears, and the


truth is that the national media campaigning was pretty silly. Some


of the daft things were said on both sides. The other side were


concentrating on 77 million Turks coming here and that we tap -- we


would have ?350 million a week for the health service if we left. But


there is a serious debate. Your piece answered its own question. All


this silly day by day commentary on one set of figures going up and


down, another company investing or not, that is ridiculous. We haven't


even left yet. The question of the referendum was, should we leave? It


has hundreds of questions wrapped up in it and we won't really know the


economic consequences of Brexit if we do go ahead until we know whether


or not we are staying in the single market or the customs unit. This


wasn't even discussed during the referendum. Professor Patrick


Minford, have you taken heart or do you think it is of no interest at


all, because we simply don't know? The evidence since we have the


referendum result has been very clear. It is that the economy has


been strong. That's the evidence we've got. Unemployment has fallen,


employment has been strong. We have indeed had the fall in sterling,


which was universally expected, including by our side, and that has


stimulated the economy in a help you sort of way and be necessary because


we had a big balance of payments deficit. -- a healthy way. So


actually the economy has cruised along and has had a 2-3% growth. So


we haven't had all these uncertainty effects they talked about... Sorry,


quite a few economists said they would be a short-term shock. Gerard


Lyons talked about this. There was quite a bit of talk of a short-term


shock. So it wasn't just the Remain campaign who said that. So I don't


know how you can talk about that when we haven't even made the exit


yet. But the uncertainty that was not going to happen and it hasn't


happened. If anything we should be positive, because the outlook is


either through a clean Brexit, as it is called, where we go to free trade


with the rest of the world, which will be a positive, or it is the


status quo if you go with a soft Brexit. So the uncertainty effect


was always nonsense and we said that. Whereas in the short run there


would be a shock. I said it would be neutral and that's exactly what has


happened. Ken Clarke, do you think Treasury officials' analysis is


subject to what one might call political or cognitive bias that


shape the analysis they deliver? Welcome with great respect to


Patrick and the tiny number of economists who agreed with him


during the referendum, and I have genuine respect for him, as a


distinguished economist, but you will -- you must admit you are a bit


of a maverick! We get on well. We still do. But the data from the


OECD, the Bank of England, they weren't talking about headlines.


They are talking about the lasting consequences. At the moment there


are some short-term worrying things. A crash in sterling by over 15% at


one point is not sort of good news. We've devalued by almost 40% since


2006. We still have a terrible balance of trade. We have the worst


current account deficit in our history. The economy is still


buoyant but consumer debt is rising to very high levels. The background


of uncertainty is putting off some investors. You've only got to talk


to Japanese, Americans, others looking at this country, and


everything depends on what the strategy of the government is going


to be. And the key thing in the short term, we're only looking at


the economics and trade bit, not our political role in the world, which


was based in the EU in the past, but the key thing is, will we keep in


the customs union and the single market? Because it help the economy


to not have access. Your predictions and forecasts, and you do make those


as an economist, Patrick, you are predicting the stock market will be


from 6500 up to one -- 11,000 any year's time, which is an


extraordinary assessment! I'm not looking to invest! Would you say


your mindset shapes your forecast? Not at all. We did an analysis of


the long-term trade effects of going to a free market. Everybody knows


free trade with the world and a lot of countries, with agreements, and


free trade setting no tariffs if we possibly can against the EU, that is


good for the economy, so we did our basic analysis on the long-term


prospects of free trade and less regulation. Our own regulation. And


our control of unskilled immigration, which cost us a lot of


money, because of the welfare costs from the EU. Let me just say this,


Evan. You've got to listen! We did this analysis of these long-term


things and we also did the analysis of the uncertainty effect, and we


said all that stuff about the recession said by George Osborne was


nonsense. There hasn't been a recession. You are right about the


long-term. It hasn't yet happened. But things like the office the


budget responsibility said investment will be hit but it is not


being hit. And nor is consumer spending. We've got to move on but I


definitely want to talk to you in a year's time. I will be delighted to


do so! Can I not come back after the result? He's busted you out. Well,


that is Patrick! Thank you both to you.


Allegations of historical child sex abuse within football


are now being investigated by four police forces.


This comes after four former footballers gave emotional testimony


on the Victoria Derbyshire Show this morning about their experience


of being abused as children by ex-Crewe Alexandra coach Barry


Let's hear a clip of two of them, Chris Unsworth and Andy Woodward.


I don't know if I'm that strong, I don't know.


Deep down I don't think I am but I'm now...


I'm a funeral director, I see lots of horrible things,


so that's probably made me a little bit stronger than


I love Andy to bits and I'm here because of him.


Andy, you've done a quite remarkable thing, you know?


Last week I was on here, I was on my own, and I was


so scared, but I knew that they were here.


And tonight The Guardian is reporting that Crewe Alexandra


directors were warned about similar allegations against Mr Bennell


but allowed him to remain at the club for a number of years,


despite the club's chairman at the time calling


Let's talk now to Mark Palios, Chief Executive of the Football


He himself was a professional footballer for Crewe Alexandra


in the early '80s, before Barry Bennell's


A very good evening to you. So you weren't there when Bennell was


there. Did you ever hear intimations, gossip about him? Did


the grapevine ever send any signal that way to you? No. There was


absolutely no indication that this was a problem or an issue. Right


through my entire career. And I've spent 17 years with professional


football clubs. I never came across this as an issue. But as I said, in


previous interviews, I think one has two except that... I don't think


there was a cover-up but it is a very match a culture in professional


football. As a consequence, I think it was difficult for people to


surface issues, just as it has been done in the past week or so. So the


victims of this he felt they may be didn't want to say anything for all


the reasons we've known in the past. Victims have stayed quiet. Hamilton


Smith, the director in the late 80s, he has spoken to The Guardian and he


had alerted the directors. He knew reports of things that had going on


-- been going on and he sat them down and said, what are we going to


do about this? And that would imply... Well, what else would you


call it other than a cover-up if no action was taken but certainly the


man wasn't dismissed and police weren't called. What would you call


that? I can't speak for the directors and how they addressed it


at the time but it is interesting. We are looking at something that


happened about 30 years ago. And if you were looking at society today, I


think there's a different attitude and a different view and culture.


Outside of football I think it's easier to sort of surface things


like this. And what it does, it points you in a direction of looking


at, what do you do with this? And the conclusion that people may well


come to as a consequence of this is that a time whereby it becomes an


offence if you don't raise the issue, if you don't whistle blow


once you have serious concerns raising an individual. There is a


duty to report it so at least it can be investigated. Because to be quite


honest, one child being abused in this society is one child to many,


and maybe that is something society wants to say, not just in football


but across all sports and all organisations. When you went to the


FA, how much of a preoccupation and issue was this? How or where were


you of this being an issue? It wasn't, it wasn't massively on


the agenda of issues which were brought to my attention at the time.


The commission as I understand that was ongoing in the background, a


combination of both the FA, I think the Premier League and the PFA were


looking at child abuse and as a consequence of that commission later


on I think they put in place a system of comprehensive proposals


and regulations around how academies ran, for example. But it wasn't a


massive issue for me on a day-to-day basis. Hamilton Smith, again, the


Crewe Alexandra director, said in 2001 he went to the FA, the child


protection officer there and said he was worried about how much Barry


Bennell had been up to and thought there should be some investigation


and he was really given the brush off. He was told after a lapse of


time, he was told we have investigated this and there is


nothing to see. That does imply that the FA was at least complacent


doesn't it? I think society was complacent at the time. I am not


justifying, I don't know the issue, I don't know the incident but I


would suggest you have to look at it in the context of what was going on


in this country at the time and maybe there was a complacency that


wasn't warranted but that is what the situation was. I think


subsequent to that, one has to look at what has happened since and the


standards and regulations around how you deal with children have


significantly been tightened. For example, if an individual is


injured, a child is injured, you would not take him in a car on your


own as a coach back to the copper treatment, they would be at least


two you would take him in a group, if it was not serious you would take


them in a group back to the whole issue of putting yourself at risk,


of putting yourself in risk of an allegation being falsely made


against you has been address. That is something which has been


tightened since the 1990s, the 1980s et. Mark Palios, thank you for


talking to us. Thanks. Relations between Turkey


and the EU were fraught before Turkish President Erdogan today


threatened to re-allow migrants to cross over into Greece


and western Europe, knowing the trouble that would cause;


that was after the European Parliament voted to recommend that


talks on EU membership But the international position


is nothing as to what is happening Since the coup, 125,000


public employees have It is a very different


kind of country. Tim Whewell has been to the country


to see what the effects are. For one violent, chaotic night


this summer Turks defied tanks Now though the hunt


for the conspirators has cost more The government says


it is cleansing Turkey of a virus. But is it also creating


a state of fear? They are trying to


eradicate all opposition. What is the real purpose


of Turkeys cleansing and has Fethullah Gulen is a 75-year-old


Islamic preacher living in self-imposed exile


in the United States. He says his aim is simply to promote


moderate Islam and education. But the graduates of his many


schools formed a powerful But President Erdogan,


a former ally of the preacher, claims Gulen actually


masterminded the conspiracy. Now the Ministry of Education


in Ankara, where many Gulenists worked, is leading the state's


efforts to cleanse Turkey Now those alleged infiltrators


are being purged. 50,000 were sacked in just one


decree published online. On the list are teachers


and academics like this history It is profession after profession


basically, so many areas of The list just goes


on and on and on and on. Associate Professor,


Department of history. Now he is an ex-associate professor


and his life has fallen apart. Under investigation for links


to Gulen he cannot travel abroad, access his own bank account or get


any other academic job. A few days before a friend of mine


had seen that book in my office and told me, remove this book,


nowadays it's dangerous. I told him, that is ridiculous,


I am an academic. To make it even more ridiculous,


he says, he was using quotations from the book


to tweet against Gulen. You can just search my name


and Fethullah Gulen on Twitter and you can see,


they are from two years ago. He thinks Gulen is a


dangerous extremist. I have underlined his words,


apostasy in Islam is So they accused you of being


a Gulenist simply on the strength of finding one book


by him in your I mean, that's the only


evidence they can talk of. Isn't there a real atmosphere


of fear now in the country? People looking over their shoulder


all the time, saying am I about to be denounced


simply in order to settle Teachers or others who say they have


been wrongly accused can now apply to special


government complaint centres. But the state does not expect that


many people will be reinstated. Certainly not the 28,000 state


school teachers who were purged There is no such evidence


against the history lecturer, but he does not think he'll


get his job back any time soon. Nowadays everyone is afraid of one


day becoming a Gulenist, You don't need evidence and those


processes may take years. And you can watch the Our World


documentary "Cleansing Turkey" tomorrow and Sunday


on the News Channel at 9.30pm Tomorrow's the 40th


anniversary of the Sex Pistols You can all hum the words I'm sure;


"Don't know what I want, But I know how to get it,


I want to destroy the passerby" - surely as relevant as ever


to the UK experience. But since then, punk


has lost its edge - The son of pioneers Malcolm McLaren


and Vivienne Westwood, hitherto best known for his underwear shops,


is burning his memorabilia tomorrow, in protest


at the de-punking of the form. A lot has been said about the elite


this year, but it is funny to think the punks are now the insiders


and true rebels this year look more Our own post punk cultural


commentator is Stephen Smith. This is how Jeremy Vine and the new


look Crimewatch covered it. Over the last 12 months punk rock has become


almost a battle cry in British society, for many people it's a


bigger threat to our way of life than Russian communism or


hyperinflation and it certainly develops more excitement than either


of those. From Pastor John Cooper for instance who sees punk as


degenerate and evil and from city councillors in London, Glasgow,


Birmingham. We beat on, boats against the


current, born back ceaselessly into the past on a tide of the nostalgia


and spittle. # We are so pretty


# Also pretty # We are a vacant


# We are so pretty # We are so pretty


# Vacant and Warwick. Malcolm McLaren was the spend alley of punk


and Vivienne Westwood. But there son says he is setting fire to


memorabilia worse millions because Punt is dead and worse has sold out.


What would his dad think? With regards to lobbyist takeover of punk


rock by the corporate sector and the whole idea that the establishment


now owns this as part of the scene that we are going to start calling


London, I think had he been alive he would have taken this opportunity to


say something about it. Whether he would have agreed with me to burn a


lot of it or not, I think he probably would have done. And I


think you would think it was kind of hilarious. Do I buy country life but


because it's British? Perhaps he has a point. Johnny Rotten did


commercials. Was it hits bar? I can't believe it's not that spot.


# We don't want it. But an up-and-coming band who consider


themselves latter-day punks say Jon Corre has got his knickers in a


twist. Stand-by for a punky three chord graphic. What he is doing has


been done in a more profound way by the EPLF who burned ?1 million. He


is just this sort of privileged man who has come to own all these


possessions because of who his parents are. I don't think you


should just burn our history. If it's in museums it's there to


inspire and influence other people rather than just be, you don't


achieve anything by burning it. But destroying artefacts has a


certain pedigree. Artist Michael Landy put all his possessions to


mangle. So is Jon Corre's act in that situation? Punk always embraces


in some way commercials and stunts which is seen as destroying a


spectacular or maybe a hoax, we will see. But it's not the spirit of punk


because punk is very creative and was a gateway for a whole load of


people in the mid-70s to get involved in music, fashion,


journalism or any other kind of outlet of energy.


Like his old man, this former owner of a lingerie chain is a bit of a


provocative. And some believe his bonfire of punk will yet turn out to


be no more than a tease. A storm in a teacup.


That's all we have time for. I will be back on Monday. Have a good


weekend. Good night. A lot of dry weather through this


weekend, that the easy bit, a lot of variety also in the weather across


various parts of the country, thick


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