06/01/2017 Newsnight


06/01/2017

With Emily Maitlis. Donald Trump appears to be at odds with his intelligence services. Plus the latest on the mass shooting in Florida and the failings of economists.


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Transcript


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The US eLection was influenced by Vladimiri Putin -

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the claim by US intelligence chiefs as they release their full report.

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There's no sign that Donald Trump will accept that.

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This world expert in cyber crime tells us this CIA

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report is the most import one in the agency's history.

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We'll hear the reaction to that from the former

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A gunman opens fire inside Fort Lauderdale airport in Florida.

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We'll bring you the latest on the casualties.

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They call it the Michael Fish moment: the Bank of England heaps

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scorn on the economists who missed failed to see coming

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How does a weatherman get blamed for what some

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In the last hour US intelligence chiefs have

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released their report on what they believe to be

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Russian interference in the American Presidential Election.

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It is as conclusive as it is damning - pointing the finger

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directly at Vladimir Putin - and saying he ordered

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an "influence campaign" aimed at undermining public faith

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It states their understanding that the Russian Government

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developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump

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over Hillary Clinton - and backed what private cyberspace

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companies have long concluded, that a Russian group known as Fancy

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Bear was behind the leaked emails of top Democrats.

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The report emerged shortly after a meeting between Trump

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Donald Trump called the meeting "constructive" and appeared to admit

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foreign spies could be behind the hacking.

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But he refused once more to believe the outcome of the election had

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This is where it all started so publicly, the Democratic National

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Convention in July, a chance for a presidential candidate to shine in

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front of adoring party conference, but Hillary Clinton's Coronation was

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mired by scandal, the chair of the DNC had to resign on the eve of the

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party convention after a league of internal e-mails showed officials

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favouring Clinton over Bernie Sanders. Forward six months, the

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leaks get worse and Donald Trump wins the election, and Barack Obama

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announces expulsions of Russian diplomats after what America

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believed is a cyber attack from Russia. It is not exactly in the

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interest of Donald Trump to acknowledge that he may be benefited

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from state-sponsored hacking, made all the more awkward after those

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comments back in July. Russia, if you are listening, I hope you are

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able to find the 30,000 e-mails that are missing. The last 24 hours has

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shown the capricious nature of the debate, first Syriza tweets saying

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he was a big of intelligence agencies, -- a series of tweets. And

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then a follow-up, asking why they had not investigated Democratic

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computers. He has now conceded the leaks might have come from foreign

:03:23.:03:25.

enemies but insists there was no effect on the outcome of the

:03:26.:03:30.

election. Perhaps he's right, we might never know for sure, but this

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is no longer about the part Russia may be played in America's domestic

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affairs, it's about the Laois and ship the President of the United

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States will have with the agencies tasked with keeping America safe --

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the relationship. If Trump doesn't trust his own spies, the Kremlin's

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work is done. I'm joined now by Thomas Rid,

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Professor of Security Studies at Kings College -

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he's been looking through It is unflinching. In the way it

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points the finger directly at Russia and Russian hackers, and that the

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Russian government and at Vladimir Putin. It is important to keep this

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in a his topical context, a lot of the threat intelligence and digital

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forensic amenity have studied Russian hacking campaigns for many

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years, two decades, and the one thing that is crucial, they make

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mistakes. Again and again, and when they make mistakes we can look at

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these mistakes and learn from them and link attacks to each other. And

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to the perpetrator. You have read the report you don't think it is

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oversold, this understanding of Russian influence? The US

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intelligence committee have been tracking Russian operations, not

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just in computers, network operations, but Russian influence

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operation for many decades they have coverage through human sources as

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well as technical sources and we can tell from their very strong

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intelligence language in the report that their sources including their

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human sources seem to be very strong. This is a significant

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observation. Standing back you could say that President Obama ordered the

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report a month ago and it comes as Donald Trump is about to be

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inaugurated and it seems to favour Hillary Clinton by appointing the

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figure at Vladimir Putin's support for the knot on, so why would you

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not be sceptical? -- support for Donald Trump. Let's keep this in

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perspective, President Obama was very reluctant in the campaign to

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use the intelligence community and to point fingers at what was going

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on, because he, like many others, thought that Clinton would win,

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anyway, so it wouldn't matter in the end, but clearly that did not

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happen. You have traced the way... You were looking at e-mails to John

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Podesta and how the spam filter failed. And how the e-mails

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essentially leaked, but what makes you link John Podesta at one end to

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Vladimir Putin at the other? In that particular case, the Russian

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operators made the mistake and left part of the infrastructure that they

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used in order to breach thousands of targets, hundreds of thousands of

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targets and only one of them was John Podesta. Because they made that

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mistake with a link shortening a cat, and this is only one mistake of

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many, we can piece together highly detailed full resolution picture of

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their targeting over many months and it looks exactly like the targets

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set of a military intelligence agency would look like. A military

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intelligence agency means Vladimir Putin himself? The operation was

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most likely started as a bottom-up initiative and then Vladimir Putin

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signed off on it at some point in the middle of last year which is

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also part of the intelligence estimate. How do you think Donald

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Trump himself has handled the leaks? We know from history, and this is a

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very long history, Cold War history, the Russian intelligence community

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have honed their skills in driving wedges into the political systems of

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their adversary 's to multiply divisions, and first they wanted to

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divide Clinton and Bernie Sanders which they set seeded in doing, and

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now it seems they are daring Trump to deepen the division between his

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Administration and his own foreign policy and intelligence

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establishment. So by tweeting at these are unhinged statements, he is

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indeed doing exactly what the Russians and probably Vladimir Putin

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want him to do. Thomas, thanks for joining us.

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Former Director of the CIA James Woolsey joins me now.

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He quit the Trump transition team this week - as - he explained -

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he didn't want to fly under false colours as a senior

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Thank you very much for joining us. Have you read the report before it

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was released? Do you agree with what it says? I had not read it before it

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was released, and it seems to me that it sounds like a Saudi done

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report. -- soundly done report. It makes several ports, several points,

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the Russian effort is wide reaching, the Russians call it disinformation,

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otherwise known as lying, and they target institutions in the West, any

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institutions in countries they are concerned about or interested in,

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they have been doing this since the 1940s, maybe the 1930s. And they

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have done it of course until very recently without using cyber but

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using other devices, forged documents, doctored photographs,

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except you. Hundreds and hundreds of people, thousands of people,

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according to defectors who had gone into this in some detail. That is

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apparently confirmed by the report. And I think it is good and sound for

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Americans and the rest of us to understand that the Russians operate

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this way and they have operated this way for many years and they are not

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going to change under Vladimir Putin. It also seems, the report

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seems to say, that whatever the Russians did, it does not seem to

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have influenced the outcome of the election, that is not just something

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Trump is saying, that is something the report says. And something Jim

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Clark has said, as well. They would have needed to do that, they would

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have needed to have got them into the voting machine and the counting

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process, which we have got to upgrade in the United States. Can I

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just come in, you have said this is good and sound, and we know Donald

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Trump has refused to believe that it had any effect on the election

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outcome, what do you read into that? No one else I know has charged that

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it has had an effect on the outcome. I don't believe the intelligence

:10:57.:11:02.

organisations or the FBI or anything I've read, suggests there was any

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effect. It is something which one needs to fix because if it is not

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fixed and the voting machines are not perfect, there could be an

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effect Sunday, but I don't know of any authoritative statement which

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says it affected the counting and the models, the counting of the

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ballots. What is your message to Democrats tonight who hear this

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report which points the finger at Vladimir Putin leading a campaign of

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influence over the election and must be feeling outraged? Well, I would

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think that all Americans, Democrats and Republicans, ought, if not to be

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outrage, to be somewhere between outraged and highly concerned, that

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the Russians, by continuing to do what they have done for many

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decades, and doing it with advanced technology, could have an effect the

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next time, a real effect, not just a theoretical one, be out, of

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elections. Britain's elections, our elections, other elections. We need

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to get in control of our own systems and counter what the Russians are

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doing. Can I journey suggest that some might here that is rather

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naive, we understand there are reports of senior Russian official

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celebrating a Trump victory and we know that Trump himself seems to be

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very friendly with Russia and he has refused to point the finger at the

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state himself or stop what more evidence do we need that this is

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Russian influence working on American politics? If the Russians

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had real elections and there was one between Vladimir Putin and

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Gorbachev, there would be celebrations in the United States

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and Britain, that Gorbachev had won, even if we had not gotten involved

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in doing the kind of things that the Russians do, with respect to

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interfering with voting and so forth. One of the things we are

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seeing here, Americans comes slowly as a nation, taking effect, posing

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and fighting something which are challenging and we are still at the

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beginning stages of this was Churchill said the Americans always

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do the right thing, but unfortunately only after they have

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exhausted all the other possibilities. You have to realise

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we are exhausting possibilities now, give us time, and I think we will

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organise things in such a way that we protect our ballot and help

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others protect theirs. Take us inside the mindset which you know so

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well of senior intelligence chiefs, the CIA, who have heard their

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commander-in-chief reject the explanation that they have offered,

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what kind of relationship lies in store for Donald Trump and the CIA

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now? They are big boys and girls and they take a lot of criticism, it is

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very popular in the United States politically, if anything comes up

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that remotely deals with intelligence, to find some reason to

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criticise the CIA... Publicly? Often, often. I have seen that

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coming at me when I was director of Central intelligence, demanding that

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I do impossible things, such as fire people who were already retired.

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LAUGHTER We are not always at our best in the

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initial stages of something, it took three years to get into World War I

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and two and a half years to get into World War II while Britain held

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Germany at bay, and sometimes we don't respond as quickly as we

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should. Thanks for joining us. A gunman opened fire

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in the baggage claim area at the Fort Lauderdale airport

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in Florida, killing five people and wounding at least eight before

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being taken into custody. The attack sent panicked passengers

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running out of the terminal One man, believed to be

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the shooter, is now in custody. Our correspondent

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Barbara Plett Ussher There was a lot of confusion around

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what was taken onto the plane, whether the shooter was a passenger,

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whether he had carried a gun, what more can you tell us? Police have

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not clarify the question, whether he came into the baggage claim area

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from outside or whether he arrived as a passenger but the county

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commissioner has said that he had been told that he came on a plane,

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that he had checked his gun in the luggage and that he picked it up on

:15:51.:15:56.

the baggage carousel and took it to the bathroom, where he loaded it and

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came out shooting. It is legal to check a gun, to put it into checked

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luggage, in the United States, under certain precautions and those

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precautions were taken. The County Commissioner initially said that he

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had come on my flight from Canada, that is something Air Canada and the

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Canadian embassy have looked into and they have said, there was no

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evidence that he had any connection to Canada and since then, reports

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that he flew in from Anchorage, which is also the place where he was

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last known to have lived, Anchorage, Alaska. Has there been much reaction

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from political figures in America this evening so far? You have that

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statements of condolence from the president, and something similar

:16:40.:16:42.

from the President-elect, who takes the opportunity to comment on public

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events through his Twitter account. He did that as well. One thing that

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people will be asking, how could this happen so easily in an airport,

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where you are supposed to have tight security. He seems to have brought

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his gun in with him but the fact is that it took place in an arrivals

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area, in domestic flights, in the United States, these areas are not

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terribly secure, people can walk in, picked up family members, drivers

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can pick people up at the baggage claim. It is possible there may be

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some discussion about whether these areas need to be further secured

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just like the areas where you go into departures for aeroplanes.

:17:23.:17:25.

Thank you very much. There is a certain irony that

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even when economists are attempting to take the blame,

:17:30.:17:32.

they end up using poor old weather forecaster Michael Fish

:17:33.:17:35.

as their whipping boy, and headline synonym

:17:36.:17:36.

for a forecast gone wrong. The Bank of England admitted that

:17:37.:17:38.

economists were facing after their dire predictions

:17:39.:17:40.

of a post-Brexit downturn proved unfounded in

:17:41.:17:45.

the first six months. The Bank of England's

:17:46.:17:48.

chief economist Andy Haldane said his team were now

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facing having to predict how despite unknowable outcomes

:17:52.:17:54.

of the Brexit negotiations. So can economists tell us anything

:17:55.:17:57.

more than Paul the Octopus, Earlier on today a woman rang the

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BBC and said that she heard there was a hurricane on the way, if you

:18:14.:18:18.

are watching, don't worry, there isn't. VOICEOVER: As economics had

:18:19.:18:22.

its own Michael Fish moment, that is what the chief economist at the Bank

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of England said this week. Very similar to the sort of reports

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central banks, naming no names, issued precrisis," there's no

:18:33.:18:38.

hurricane coming, it might be very windy in the sub-prime sector...".

:18:39.:18:44.

It was a huge shock to economists, in 2009, 49 countries had

:18:45.:18:48.

year-on-year falls, in economic activity, but as late as September

:18:49.:18:57.

2008, no major forecasters foresaw that. We failed to appreciate the

:18:58.:19:02.

damage that a relatively sub-prime bass malt sub-prime mortgage market

:19:03.:19:06.

in the United States, loans to fairly poor people who cannot afford

:19:07.:19:09.

the houses they are trying to buy, would do to our financial sector

:19:10.:19:14.

because we did not realise just how interdependent the whole sector had

:19:15.:19:18.

become. There were views that the financial sector was able to manage

:19:19.:19:21.

risk much more effectively, than all this all sort of -- with all this

:19:22.:19:26.

computerisation and self reporting and it turned out not to be true.

:19:27.:19:30.

The financial crisis was not the only bad weather that the economists

:19:31.:19:34.

missed, ever since then, the British economy has consistently

:19:35.:19:37.

underperformed what the economic consensus has suggested. There is a

:19:38.:19:42.

storm that they predicted that never came, the "Brexit" referendum did

:19:43.:19:46.

not lead to an immediate contraction. Those two misses were

:19:47.:19:56.

not the result of complex mass mistakes but relatively simple

:19:57.:19:58.

judgment call that went wrong, on how the economy would respond to two

:19:59.:20:05.

historically unprecedented events. Economists have struggled with

:20:06.:20:11.

forecasting recently because the economy is very weak, after a very

:20:12.:20:15.

unusual event, the financial crisis, we do not have many of those to go

:20:16.:20:20.

by. Most economists are still glum about Brexit but lots got the timing

:20:21.:20:26.

of any trouble wrong, all the evidence suggests that the

:20:27.:20:29.

withdrawing of the suggestion that we withdraw from the European Union

:20:30.:20:33.

will be bad for long-term growth in the UK. But what went wrong,

:20:34.:20:40.

perhaps, was suggesting that those effects would be brought forward,

:20:41.:20:44.

and lead to more savings and less demand in the economy in the very

:20:45.:20:50.

short run. It's worth remembering that as bad as things have been in

:20:51.:20:55.

spotting crises coming, economic policy has got better at responding

:20:56.:21:00.

to crises, we may not have very good forecasts yet but we have much

:21:01.:21:06.

better umbrellas. You can see that most clearly in what happened after

:21:07.:21:09.

the financial crisis. The lessons that had been taken from the great

:21:10.:21:13.

depression were put into action with all policy leaders in many countries

:21:14.:21:17.

around the world being put to the purpose of preventing another great

:21:18.:21:21.

depression from taking place. That is how economics contribute, we

:21:22.:21:26.

learn from our mistakes in the past, we learn from economic history, and

:21:27.:21:31.

we make the best use of the evidence available. Most of the strong winds

:21:32.:21:35.

will be down over Spain and across into France. Since the financial

:21:36.:21:41.

crisis, economics has been a victim of the unprecedented financial and

:21:42.:21:42.

political climate. STUDIO: Joining me now is Guardian

:21:43.:21:50.

columnist, Simon Jenkins, and Vicky Pryce from the Centre

:21:51.:21:52.

for Economics and Business Research. I'm going to leave the umbrella

:21:53.:21:57.

aside for one moment and look at just the rain, is it useless, trying

:21:58.:22:01.

to predict what is going to happen, if they cannot see a financial crash

:22:02.:22:05.

which turns into the worst one for 80 years and then they go on to make

:22:06.:22:09.

further mistakes five years later, what is the point? The first thing

:22:10.:22:13.

to say is that it is not true that nobody was forecasting at the time

:22:14.:22:17.

that things were likely to turn really nasty, the fact that it was

:22:18.:22:23.

not put strongly through the media and people were not necessarily

:22:24.:22:25.

listening is something that we should not forget. People were not

:22:26.:22:33.

particularly, they were not indicating it strongly. The

:22:34.:22:38.

overwhelming view was that we could probably carry on because we had

:22:39.:22:42.

settled macro. People said we had settled it out, we no longer have

:22:43.:22:48.

boom and bust, Gordon Brown was saying that particularly, and we are

:22:49.:22:51.

really safe and many think that would happen. What people forgot,

:22:52.:22:56.

just as we have been hearing, interconnectivity across various

:22:57.:23:00.

countries particularly one of the national sectors and globalisation

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has been an important part, making it quite difficult for an individual

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country to isolate itself and forecast exact to what is going to

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happen. INAUDIBLE I thought the whole point of

:23:11.:23:14.

economics was you can predict these things, otherwise don't make

:23:15.:23:17.

predictions, you assume that when you can... Is that for you what the

:23:18.:23:21.

study of economics is, predictions? No, it is about studying human

:23:22.:23:26.

behaviour, it went all wrong, when it went the up the backside of

:23:27.:23:30.

mathematics, using models that were fallacious, they got two huge things

:23:31.:23:35.

wrong, crash and now "Brexit", and I say people employed by the

:23:36.:23:37.

government to get these things right, they don't pretend, they say,

:23:38.:23:42.

we think this is going to happen, they say might, possibly might, but

:23:43.:23:45.

the fact is, they are making predictions. They were massively on

:23:46.:23:52.

one side and wrong. What is suspicious about it, they are people

:23:53.:23:55.

hired by the government and the suspicion is that this is not an

:23:56.:23:58.

independent profession, as we would like to think it is, it is them

:23:59.:24:04.

saying what governments wants them to hear. We should say, on "Brexit"

:24:05.:24:08.

so far they have proven wrong, we are in early stages... You can

:24:09.:24:12.

always say that, it is like saying there will be a war one day, you

:24:13.:24:16.

want to know when, the point about expertise is that they should tell

:24:17.:24:20.

you when. -- the point about experts is. There should be an enquiry, if

:24:21.:24:25.

this was a professional mistake in engineering or medicine there would

:24:26.:24:29.

be a public enquiry. Economists... This is a Michael Fish moment...

:24:30.:24:33.

This is what is going on right now, the experts have been ridiculed by

:24:34.:24:40.

some members of Parliament. As you know. And yet, if you had heard what

:24:41.:24:46.

Simon was saying, this was all coming from people who work for the

:24:47.:24:50.

government and therefore, they are not independent, it has been the

:24:51.:24:54.

overwhelming majority of economists, independent economists, working for

:24:55.:24:58.

banks and think tanks, and have nothing to do with politics, who

:24:59.:25:05.

were all believing that leaving the EU would be bad news for the UK, not

:25:06.:25:09.

all agreeing that the shorter in fact would be bad but that the

:25:10.:25:13.

medium and long-term impact would be resulting in lower growth in the UK

:25:14.:25:17.

economy. They said something quite specific, there would be an

:25:18.:25:21.

immediate crash. They are not pretending they didn't, they are

:25:22.:25:24.

trying to say that it was a weather forecast which went wrong. These

:25:25.:25:28.

things really do matter. It is not a weather forecast that went wrong, is

:25:29.:25:32.

something had been that there would be the triggering of Article 50

:25:33.:25:35.

immediately, basically what people had been told to expect if there was

:25:36.:25:41.

a vote. Therefore, the impact would be quite substantial, and there was

:25:42.:25:45.

a huge impact on the markets. A full in the pound and a crash in shares.

:25:46.:25:53.

-- fall in the pound. I remember, waking up in the morning. What about

:25:54.:25:58.

this Tom this victim of unprecedented times, do you allow

:25:59.:26:07.

some leeway? This -- this, this phrase victim of unprecedented

:26:08.:26:10.

times. They come up with phrases and then they say, this might happen. In

:26:11.:26:14.

terms of forecast you would have thought they might say, on one hand,

:26:15.:26:17.

on the other hand, but there was a universe analogy of this, they were

:26:18.:26:22.

saying, and I have to say, I cannot believe that it was... -- there was

:26:23.:26:27.

a universe yellow tea of this. If we never asks economists, then is it

:26:28.:26:34.

still a useful tool, does it still give us something? They look at what

:26:35.:26:38.

has been happening in the past, history, what does it tell us, does

:26:39.:26:42.

it give us an understanding of how people behave, that is the most

:26:43.:26:47.

important thing, so... You could say the same thing with politics and

:26:48.:26:50.

clearly it does not. You can run your models in a good

:26:51.:26:57.

way when things are normal, and we have good predicting records but

:26:58.:27:01.

what is much more difficult to do is if there is a shock, political

:27:02.:27:07.

shock, the economy will go into all sorts of... Spasms. Of this sword,

:27:08.:27:15.

yes. This is the dodgy dossier, they're ready should be an enquiry

:27:16.:27:16.

into it. -- spasms, of a sort, yes. If you havent met Alexa

:27:17.:27:24.

you probably will soon. Standing, quietly like a wallflower

:27:25.:27:27.

in the corner of a room. Or perhaps, in the early days

:27:28.:27:29.

of courtship, centre stage She's a sleek robot,

:27:30.:27:32.

the brainchild of Amazon, and she responds only when you start

:27:33.:27:35.

each of your questions She can turn your music up,

:27:36.:27:38.

turn your heating down, and answer questions on just

:27:39.:27:41.

about anything she understands. But are you quite ready

:27:42.:27:44.

to welcome her into your home? David Grossman reports on the advent

:27:45.:27:46.

of the automated house guest. VOICEOVER: It is only because we

:27:47.:27:56.

have always done it this way that we consider typing the natural way of

:27:57.:27:59.

communicating with computers but it is not, it is far more natural to

:28:00.:28:05.

speak to them. Alexa, tell hive to put the heating on. All right, what

:28:06.:28:11.

temperature would you like. Alexa 20 degrees. Sure, your heating is now

:28:12.:28:19.

set to 20 degrees. Voice control technology is seen as the next

:28:20.:28:22.

frontier in personal computer in, it might not be that we are sitting

:28:23.:28:27.

around typing on keyboards as much in the future or using input devices

:28:28.:28:32.

but we use our voices to control a lot of the stuff we need to get done

:28:33.:28:36.

on computers. In a sense, the future has arrived, but as ever, concerns

:28:37.:28:43.

about privacy and security abound. So, in my Christmas stocking I

:28:44.:28:53.

received the Echo, and I was reluctant to turn it on. I have not

:28:54.:28:57.

used the product yet, because I do not know what will happen to the

:28:58.:29:02.

data, and it is Big Brother to think that Alexa or anyone is collecting

:29:03.:29:09.

information about my household activities that can be used for

:29:10.:29:13.

personalising my shopping experience, to be sure, but also

:29:14.:29:18.

means that someone has knowledge of what is going on in my home. The

:29:19.:29:24.

Internet of things, the big data movement, it is one which I think

:29:25.:29:28.

consumers should give more thought to, do we really want to have

:29:29.:29:32.

unknown third parties with access to personal information? For a start,

:29:33.:29:36.

unless you disable the microphone, it is always on, always listening

:29:37.:29:39.

and always recording what is being said in a room. However, Amazon say

:29:40.:29:44.

that nothing leaves the premises, nothing is sent to the clout, for

:29:45.:29:48.

processing, unless you use the wake word, " "Alexa"... Law is still

:29:49.:29:57.

emerging in this area, police in Arkansas full-back recording from a

:29:58.:30:01.

device may be able to shed light on a murder. Amazon have declined to

:30:02.:30:09.

hand them over. -- cloud. United States, the courts could Sabine

:30:10.:30:13.

almost any thing of a soul, people should not be comfortable with the

:30:14.:30:16.

thought that Amazon can protect me from having the government access my

:30:17.:30:21.

information. -- in the United States, the courts can

:30:22.:30:32.

subpoena almost any thing of a sort. You need butter to make the

:30:33.:30:42.

pancakes, milk, and egg. It is eight trade-off, we allow in the

:30:43.:30:45.

microphones for the convenience. Are you my friend? Of course we can be

:30:46.:30:52.

friends, you seem very nice. But, however amiable R friend sounds,

:30:53.:30:59.

it is not clear who is side she is on. -- amiable our new friend

:31:00.:31:07.

sounds. They want to control everything that we listen to and

:31:08.:31:12.

what we buy, and that is extremely valuable information. Alexa, are you

:31:13.:31:17.

the beginning of the end of Western Seville is Asian? No, you're... --

:31:18.:31:28.

are you the beginning of the end of Western Seville is Asian. --

:31:29.:31:36.

civilisation.

:31:37.:31:40.