17/01/2017 Newsnight


17/01/2017

With Evan Davis. Reaction to Theresa May's speech on Britain exiting the EU, a look at China, a peak at Donald Trump's 'to do' list and Barack Obama releases Chelsea Manning.


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Transcript


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But we are hoping to hang on to the good bits.

:00:00.:00:14.

Will Europe give us a cake and eat it deal?

:00:15.:00:17.

This club would benefit - and all th members of this club -

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would benefit from a strategic partnership

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You cannot simply pick and choose what you like and leave aside

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The idea all this is going to be efficient, clean and done and dusted

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in two years, I think, is a bit of a pipe dream.

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We'll ask if Theresa May can carry her party,

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business and the country with her Brexit vision.

:00:41.:00:45.

China's President Xi is in Davos and looking like the only world

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leader not stuck in a permanent domestic melodrama of

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When did China become the grown-up in the room?

:00:51.:00:56.

What does Conservative America want the Donald to do on day one?

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He should sit down at his desk the afternoon of January 20th

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and rescind every executive order issued by President

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Theresa May said a lot today - I think as much as everything

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She gave us the principles, the specific objectives,

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a threat and her hopes, including her hope that Britain

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will unite and put the divisions of the referendum behind it.

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Underlying her pitch was a statement that Britain is different to most

:01:35.:01:38.

of the other European countries and wants to be more global.

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It wishes Europe well, but the Prime Minister

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couldn't have been clearer - we are leaving the EU in full.

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Frankly, it's the remainer nightmare.

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But the Prime Minister also offered Europe a new relationship,

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based on free trade, a customs agreement and lots

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of co-operation on science, security and the like.

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At a first glance, many would look at it and say -

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if we get all that on trade, without paying big membership fees,

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while controlling immigration, then we have the best bits of the EU

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The question that matters of course, for us all, is whether the other EU

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Let's start with our political editor, Nick Watt, on the speech

:02:17.:02:21.

Today, we finally had a clear vision from Theresa May about how she hopes

:02:22.:02:25.

to reframe the UK's relationship with the EU.

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What I am proposing cannot mean membership of the single market.

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European leaders have said many times that membership means

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accepting the four freedoms of goods, capital,

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And being out of the EU, but a member of the single market,

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would mean complying with the EU's rules and regulations that

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implement those freedoms, without having a vote on what those

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It would mean accepting a role for the European Court of Justice

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that would see it still having direct legal authority

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It would, to all intents and purposes, mean not

:03:16.:03:20.

By announcing that she will withdraw from one of the proudest

:03:21.:03:28.

achievements of the Thatcher government, Theresa May was sending

:03:29.:03:30.

fundamental messages to two core audiences.

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To Britain she was saying - I'm fulfilling the instruction

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from voters, who said take back control of immigration and take back

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control of full lawmaking powers, and also there'll be a benefit too,

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no more vast contributions to the EU budget.

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And to Brussels, she was saying - you didn't think I would dare

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But see now, I am really serious about a clean Brexit.

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I know my emphasis on striking trade agreements with countries outside

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Europe has led to questions about whether Britain

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seeks to remain a member of the EU's customs union.

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The Prime Minister signalled that the UK will opt out of two key

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elements of the customs union - the setting of quotas,

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and of tariffs for EU trade with outside countries.

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But she wants to hold the door ajar to the customs union

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to give her options on her prize goal of the closest possible

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tariff-free trading relationship with the EU.

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I want us to have reached an agreement about our future

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partnership by the time the two-year Article 50 process has concluded.

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From that point onwards, we believed a phased

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process of implementation, in which both Britain and the EU

:04:59.:05:01.

institutions and member states prepare for the new arrangements

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that will exist between us, will be in our mutual self-interest.

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The Chancellor has led calls for a transitional deal to avoid

:05:09.:05:11.

business uncertainties if the UK fails to agree the terms

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of its future relationship with the EU during the two-year

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The Prime Minister sought to turn a weakness into a strength on this

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one today by saying that both sides would benefit from the phasing

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in of the implementation of elements on that deal, ranging

:05:33.:05:35.

from co-operation on fighting terrorism, to immigration controls.

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While I am sure a positive agreement can be reached,

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I'm equally clear that no deal for Britain is better

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There was a sharp intake of breath amongst the ambassadors assembled

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at Lancaster House when Theresa May showed she has been listening

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to David Davis, who said rule number one of negotiations is,

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your opponents will only take you seriously if you show

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One minister told me, "Theresa May has called the EU's bluff,

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we have many more cards to play than people had thought."

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And when it comes to Parliament, there is one other way

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in which I would like to provide certainty.

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I can confirm today that the Government will put

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the final deal that is agreed between the UK and the EU to a vote

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in both Houses of Parliament before it comes into force.

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The Prime Minister wanted to answer critics who've

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accused her of failing to deliver on the traditional demand

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of Eurosceptics, the restoration of full Parliamentary sovereignty.

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But she also had a message for the EU.

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Watch out, Parliament will have a chance to reject

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a flawed deal in favour of a unilateral move

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We will hear more from Nicking shortly. -- Nick shortly.

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Well, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, Damian Green,

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is one of the Cabinet's most committed europhiles,

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he's long been in the Ken Clarke wing of the party and was dispatched

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today to face the cameras and defend the hard Brexit

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I spoke to him this afternoon and asked if he had been

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persuaded to change his mind since the referendum campaign.

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I was a remainor, but I'm not a remoaner. I'm a democrat. I accept

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that the British people voted to get out of the European Union. I argued

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against that, but, as I say, I'm a democrat. Therefore, it's the job of

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the British Government to say - OK, that is what the British people

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want. How can we do the best possible deal that will set us up

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for decades to come? That's what today's speech was about. Customs

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union, I mean, as I understand it, we are leaving the customs union,

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but trying to negotiate our way back into some aspects of it, is that it?

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Do you think we are potentially still in the customs union? We are

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not in the customs union. We are leaving the EU. I'm tempted to say

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Brexit means Brexit at this point! The customs union is not binary.

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There are parts of the customs union that stop us negotiating trade deals

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with the rest of the world. One of them is the common external tariff

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and the other is the commercial co-operation policy. We will not be

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part of those. However, the EU, the customs union itself, has customs

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deals with other countries. So there is clearly a deal to be done. What

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we seek is a deal that gives us a fribgless transmission across

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borders of goods and services. Which is clearly good for a trading nation

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like Britain and other EU countries, but we won't be part of the common

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external tariff, for example. The Czech Secretary of State for EU

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affairs tweeted out after the speech, "the UK's plan seems

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ambitious, trade as free as possible, full control on

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immigration, where is the give for all the take?" Can you answer the

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question to him. What are we actually offering them that will be

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attractive? Which, if you like, offsets some of the disSATs factions

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we will have from p with us leaving the EU? We are offering them free

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access to unwith of the world's biggest - Us. They have that

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already. Presumably if they want to not have a free trade deal they

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wouldn't have that. That's why I say, free trade deal is good for

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both sides. It's not to take from us. We are not saying - we will have

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is a free trade deal, you can't. It's free trade both ways. Also,

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very importantly, there will be companies in the Czech Republic that

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are part of or perhaps the end of a supply chain which may well use

:09:55.:09:58.

companies in different European countries, including the UK. Keeping

:09:59.:10:02.

those companies prosperous allowing them to continue to create jobs in

:10:03.:10:07.

the Czech Republic is good for the people of the Czech Republic. If you

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like, we are offering that. It's - That's thin gruel given that they

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have all of that already... They are losing everything, aren't they? We

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want the scientific co-operation and the security co-operation. We are

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going to be - we want to be in the customs union for the good bits, we

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want freedom to negotiate other treaties. We are Baghdad - the only

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thing we are saying - we will give you the free deal, which you already

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have, if you don't give us this, we are going to blackmail you because

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we will become a tax haven and a place where all the multinationals

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want to go. What is wrong with that characterisation of what we are

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saying to them? What is wrong is your basic premise that lies behind

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it, it's a zero sum gain. That everything Britain gains the Czech

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Republic or the European Union, the other 27 will lose. It's not that.

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Successful negotiations of this kind give benefits to both sides. It's

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not one side taking the other side giving. Psychologically, the pitch

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we are making to them, which is - veiled blackmail at the end we will

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become the kind of tax haven if you don't give it to us. Essentially

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saying, we take away everything we don't like about the EU and, but we

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will give you the free trade bit, which is the bit we have always

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liked and always said we wanted. Is that - And other things. Is that

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really going to be attractive to them? No. It's cake and eat it,

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isn't it? It's the best deal for Britain and a good deal for the

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European Union. The Prime Minister made clear that, for example, on

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issues like money, you know, we will not contribute - We will not pay, we

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don't like paying. That is caked and eat it, again? There will be

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programmes we want to take part in that will be beneficial. The model

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we are proposing is utter, utter... Isn't it, we will do it a la carte.

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We will leave owl the bits we don't like, isn't the case they have a

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more holistic view of this. They like the idea of there being

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give-and-take. They like the idea of auto people being members of a club.

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Being in the room, discussing, negotiating, sorting things out,

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giving, like things on free movement, for example, which

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something... Or giving in the form of budget contributions, and being

:12:25.:12:27.

part of a big free trade area as a benefit to compensate for some of

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those. Even if if you are a member of a club you might want to say -

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this club will benefit, all the ebbs m of this club would benefit from a

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strategic partnership with the big people next door. What is the active

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ingredient in the Brexit process that will improve be a better deal

:12:47.:12:50.

for ordinary working people at home? How are ordinary people at home

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going to feel better off as a result of it? In that part of the speech

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the Prime Minister specifically talked about immigration. One of the

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things people have clearly been anxious about, in some cases angry

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about over the past 10, 15 years has been the feeling that

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straight-forwardly the numbers of immigration are too high. Is that

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Government policy, people have been worse off as a result of

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immigration, they would be better off when we control it? Some people

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have not benefitted. Some people feel and indeed in actual terms may

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well not have benefitted. Is it a perception thing that we are

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addressing it or a reality thing we are addressing? Worse off as a

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result of immigration or they are better off, but feel worse off? All

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the academic research I've seen, we can have a discussion about whether

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we listen to experts or not these days, shows whereas in the aggregate

:13:46.:13:49.

immigration makes the economy Iing abouter. It benefits the economy,

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there are people whose wages are depressed they may not be. There is

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a degree of reality. It's not just perception. In the campaign the

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referendum campaign, one of the things that had a certain resonance

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with people was this idea that we would spend more on the NHS if we

:14:03.:14:06.

left the EU. We would be paying less to the EU, we could put it into the

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NHS. Nit nit is it your view, we actually see if anything the NHS has

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had taken a hit in the next few weeks. Is it your view we will next

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see over the next five years, as a result of us leaving the EU,

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significantly larger amounts of money, a Brexit dividend being put

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into the National Health We will be paying less when we leave

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so that amount of money will be available to the Chancellor. But

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overall clearly the most important thing in terms of a dividend,

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whether you want to spend it on a particular public servers or

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anything else will depend on the underlying economy. People are

:14:58.:15:01.

concerned that we are picking the wrong guy, no longer quite as close

:15:02.:15:05.

to Angela Merkel and closer to Donald Trump who does not believe

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any of the stuff that you just said. You comfortable that were not

:15:12.:15:15.

mollycoddling Donald Trump to be close to him. The key is not to over

:15:16.:15:23.

personalised anything. Britain and America as countries have a lot in

:15:24.:15:27.

common with top historically. But also in our attitude to the world.

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And therefore it is sensible for the UK and America to continue to be

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close friends and that will be true lover the British Prime Minister or

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American president is. That is a sensible posture for the British

:15:45.:15:45.

Government to take. One of the main remaining fissures

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in this great Brexit debate here is membership

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of the customs union. Labour are inclined to keep

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us in it, Theresa May Chris Cook gives us a brief guide

:15:57.:15:58.

to what the implications are of one? Theresa May, in effect,

:15:59.:16:15.

announced today that Britain will not be in a so-called customs

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union with the EU after Brexit. Here was the critical segment,

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which we'll unpack. I do not want Britain to be part

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of the common commercial policy and I do not want us to be bound

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by the common external tariff. These are the elements

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of the customs union that prevent us from striking our own comprehensive

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trade agreements A customs union is an agreement

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to integrate country's customs policies, so no tariffs

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between them, good don't get stopped much at borders and it cuts down

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on onerous customs paperwork, Turkey has a customs union

:16:55.:16:57.

on goods with the EU, What if the EU were to set a tariff

:16:58.:17:01.

of 10% on imported cars, Companies could use Turkey to evade

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higher European tariffs. So the EU demands that

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Turkey has the same rules When the Prime Minister said

:17:19.:17:20.

we would be out of the common commercial policy and the common

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external tariff, she was basically So, realistically, we are out

:17:26.:17:28.

of the customs union because the Prime Minister wants

:17:29.:17:33.

to be able to cut trade deals around the world and that means being able

:17:34.:17:36.

to change tariffs and rules. This might mean tariffs,

:17:37.:17:42.

admin and EU border hassle for lots of UK goods

:17:43.:17:44.

entering the EU. For sectors that are very reliant

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on cross-border traffic, like aerospace and cars,

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we're likely to aim for an agreement which will ease their

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burden in particular. Those sectors might get

:17:55.:17:57.

particularly low tariffs, particularly few border checks

:17:58.:18:03.

and less form-filling. A much harder issue though

:18:04.:18:05.

is Northern Ireland, an open border with the Republic

:18:06.:18:08.

is regarded as important Officials have been considering

:18:09.:18:11.

the Norway-Sweden border solution - a hard border, but where clever use

:18:12.:18:16.

of technology allows goods to move back-and-forth

:18:17.:18:19.

without hitting too much red tape. Being out of the customs

:18:20.:18:25.

union lets us pursue an independent trade policy,

:18:26.:18:27.

but it doesn't come We are going to focus

:18:28.:18:29.

on reaction for a bit now. Nick Watt is with me,

:18:30.:18:37.

our political editor. A lot to focus on. What have you

:18:38.:18:50.

picked up from Brussels. Theresa May briefed EU leaders after his speech

:18:51.:18:53.

today and on the surface the response was reasonably friendly.

:18:54.:18:59.

Donald Tusk said the UK is being more realistic now although he

:19:00.:19:04.

described the Brexit process as sad. But dig deeper and there are

:19:05.:19:08.

concerns. I spoke to one well-placed EU Swiss who raise questions about

:19:09.:19:13.

what Chris Crook was talking about, the idea that you opt out of court

:19:14.:19:16.

elements of the customs union and then have some kind special status.

:19:17.:19:22.

The source said to me the UK is prioritising trade deals with

:19:23.:19:26.

countries outside the EU and that means one thing. That customs union

:19:27.:19:32.

is gone for the UK. And on the call for an implementation phase, this is

:19:33.:19:36.

the idea that you would phase in some elements of the UK future

:19:37.:19:39.

relationship with the EU if you do not get them agreed during the

:19:40.:19:44.

two-year divorce negotiations, the source said two things. One that

:19:45.:19:48.

that sounds like the UK is trying to hold onto some benefits of the EU

:19:49.:19:55.

but not others, and one red line on that, the source said, the

:19:56.:19:58.

fundamental rules of the EU would apply during that implementation

:19:59.:20:05.

phase. Theresa May, this kind of no deal is better than a bad deal, how

:20:06.:20:12.

has that gone down. I heard a simple description of that, it is seen as a

:20:13.:20:16.

threat and counter-productive threat at that. My source said in a

:20:17.:20:19.

negotiation you should never say what you do not want to happen. What

:20:20.:20:25.

they're saying is that that language does not well with the strength with

:20:26.:20:29.

which Theresa May said she wanted to secure the best possible trading

:20:30.:20:30.

relationship with the EU. Well, the key British

:20:31.:20:33.

argument in all this is that although we are exiting the EU,

:20:34.:20:35.

it is in the interests of the other members themselves to yield

:20:36.:20:39.

to our request for free It would be against their own

:20:40.:20:41.

interest to punish or refuse us. Our implicit vision of Europe

:20:42.:20:45.

is very a la carte and we assume there is no reason why a nation

:20:46.:20:48.

should not be able to pick areas of co-operation,

:20:49.:20:51.

as long as it is not free-riding on the costs or getting

:20:52.:20:53.

in the way of the others. But, those others may

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take a different view. Some may want to punish us

:20:57.:20:58.

or they may just say, you're in or out and we don't

:20:59.:21:01.

like nations picking the best bits. A little earlier, I spoke to the man

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responsible for European affairs in the Italian government,

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Sandro Gozi. I SDP was happy with what he heard

:21:08.:21:16.

today from Theresa May. I think it was very clear, and clarity was much

:21:17.:21:22.

needed from the British Government. Now we have a clear framework as a

:21:23.:21:29.

basis for negotiation. So we like the clarity. Just take an example of

:21:30.:21:35.

something, the customs union. We are going to come out of it. But we want

:21:36.:21:41.

to get back into the bits of it that we like. Not having bureaucratic

:21:42.:21:46.

controls, being able to sign our own trade agreements around the world.

:21:47.:21:51.

Is that a realistic objective. What I found rather odd from the speech

:21:52.:22:03.

is that Theresa May said the UK should not be huffing and out. The

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UK has always been half in and half out in the European Union because we

:22:09.:22:13.

have given the British people so many exceptions since you joined the

:22:14.:22:25.

economic community in 1973. Things like opting out. Talking now about

:22:26.:22:29.

the customs union today is premature, we need to start

:22:30.:22:34.

negotiations and we will see if this is the solution in actual terms

:22:35.:22:40.

which is going to be in our mutual interests. Mutual interest is key

:22:41.:22:45.

because the British are saying it is in your interests to come to a free

:22:46.:22:48.

trade deal and have lots of corporation. When you think about

:22:49.:22:55.

it, it does seem it is in your interests so how can you refuse? I

:22:56.:23:02.

am able to think of my interests are my own. The interests are to keep a

:23:03.:23:10.

solid European Union which we want to deepen. I do not need London to

:23:11.:23:16.

tell me what is in my interests, I'm very willing to open a very loyal

:23:17.:23:22.

negotiation with the British Government, with the government who

:23:23.:23:28.

is a friend of ours. Do you think the agenda that she set out today on

:23:29.:23:34.

free trade and cooperation on Security and science and other

:23:35.:23:38.

areas, do you think that list of demands is achievable? Certainly it

:23:39.:23:45.

is important to keep very close corporation with Britain on

:23:46.:23:51.

security. I think whilst the UK, once they've left the EU we have an

:23:52.:23:56.

interest in negotiating a trade agreement and even a strong trade

:23:57.:24:01.

agreement but on the model we have with other non-European member

:24:02.:24:05.

states. And on the customs union, the devil is in the detail. What do

:24:06.:24:09.

you think of the implied threat that Britain could become a tax haven? As

:24:10.:24:16.

I see it there is not a spirit of revenge anywhere, no one wants to

:24:17.:24:20.

have revenge, revenge on what. So I do not think it is necessary to

:24:21.:24:29.

evoke any kind of threats. And I think evoking a threat is totally

:24:30.:24:33.

useless and will not affect in any way the negotiation which must be

:24:34.:24:41.

based on mutual trust and loyal Corporation but not on threats of

:24:42.:24:45.

any kind. Who is going to lose more at the end of this, do you think the

:24:46.:24:49.

British will be worse off or the rest of the EU? The British will be

:24:50.:24:56.

worst off. In any case it is a damage limitation process, it is a

:24:57.:25:01.

loss for you to have the UK out, it will be a big loss for the UK to

:25:02.:25:06.

leave the EU. But we are friends and we need to handle negotiations to

:25:07.:25:12.

limit the damage. Both for us and for you but for you the damage can

:25:13.:25:18.

be big. A lot of British people if we -- say if we can stay in all the

:25:19.:25:22.

bits that we want to stay in, it sounds like a good deal. Would it

:25:23.:25:27.

not be tempting for the people of Italy or other countries in Europe?

:25:28.:25:32.

I agree with you when you say we must reform the European Union.

:25:33.:25:36.

Since I was in government with Matteo Renzi and now, we are very

:25:37.:25:43.

convinced that we must reform the European Union. But to stay in the

:25:44.:25:49.

community you cannot simply pick and choose what you like and neither

:25:50.:25:54.

aside what you do not like. If everyone thinks only of the

:25:55.:25:58.

advantages we would not have a community any more, we would not

:25:59.:26:02.

have the EU any more and that would not be an interest. Thank you for

:26:03.:26:04.

us. So much for the reaction

:26:05.:26:07.

on the continent. In a moment, we'll think

:26:08.:26:10.

about the politics of it here, but first, Jeremy Corbyn,

:26:11.:26:12.

Labour leader. What did he make of

:26:13.:26:14.

Theresa May's clarity? Well, she set out the plan,

:26:15.:26:19.

of a sort, in Lancaster house and then presumably at some point

:26:20.:26:23.

she is going to take questions in Parliament about it

:26:24.:26:29.

other than just at In the plan that she put forward,

:26:30.:26:31.

there seemed to be an implied threat, basically to say to Europe,

:26:32.:26:37.

this is the deal we want. We want access to the market,

:26:38.:26:40.

we want partial or no access to the customs union,

:26:41.:26:43.

we want to get on with you on everything and

:26:44.:26:50.

agree on everything. And by the way, if you don't,

:26:51.:26:56.

we are going to adopt a totally different economic model of a low

:26:57.:27:01.

corporate taxation haven on the shores of Europe that

:27:02.:27:03.

will undermine everything Europe It seems a very odd way

:27:04.:27:05.

of approaching a constructive relationship with the whole

:27:06.:27:09.

continent. And it's not the vision you would

:27:10.:27:10.

want as a British economic model, but you probably do need some kind

:27:11.:27:13.

of threat, don't you? You're going to be dealing

:27:14.:27:16.

with 27 other countries and you want to focus their minds

:27:17.:27:18.

on giving us all the things that we kind of want,

:27:19.:27:21.

like trade and access. As we go into these negotiations,

:27:22.:27:23.

surely we should recognise a couple of perhaps unwelcome facts,

:27:24.:27:26.

that nearly half of our trade is with the European Union,

:27:27.:27:28.

an awful lot of manufacturing industry in Britain relies directly

:27:29.:27:31.

on partial manufacturing Britain And then she threw into the middle

:27:32.:27:33.

of it, oh, by the way, Donald Trump says we are at the head

:27:34.:27:40.

of the queue for future trade deals. Well, Donald Trump's idea of trade

:27:41.:27:43.

deals seems to be to promote the power of corporations over

:27:44.:27:48.

nation states, or a tariff I think it's a bit risky to bank

:27:49.:27:51.

anything on Donald Trump. You mentioned the vote

:27:52.:27:58.

at the end of the process. One of the things that I know

:27:59.:28:01.

is confusing some of us is, what happens if Parliament

:28:02.:28:04.

at the end of the process, Do we have a second referendum,

:28:05.:28:06.

do we stay in the EU, do we ask the Prime Minister to go

:28:07.:28:12.

back and negotiate another deal? Well, we are quite a long way away

:28:13.:28:15.

from that situation, but as of now, Parliament will implement Article

:28:16.:28:22.

50, we'll put a view up on market access,

:28:23.:28:27.

the points we have always been making, we will be putting up a view

:28:28.:28:31.

on parliamentary scrutiny. And then eventually all the member

:28:32.:28:39.

states' Parliaments will get a view ahead of that of the European

:28:40.:28:42.

Parliament. The idea all this is going to be

:28:43.:28:46.

efficient, clean and done and dusted in two years,

:28:47.:28:49.

I think is a bit But what happens at the end

:28:50.:28:51.

if we don't like it, or if you don't like it,

:28:52.:28:55.

because if your MPs vote Well, our line is we want

:28:56.:28:58.

to protect jobs and living We want to ensure that our

:28:59.:29:01.

manufacturing industry We do not want to go

:29:02.:29:06.

in the direction of a race to the bottom competition

:29:07.:29:13.

where we lower corporate rates of taxation because doing

:29:14.:29:17.

that would obviously If we model ourselves

:29:18.:29:19.

on the Cayman Islands, the British Virgin islands,

:29:20.:29:31.

or tax havens around the world, where is the money going to be

:29:32.:29:33.

for education, for health, for housing, all the things that

:29:34.:29:36.

actually matter in people's lives? Are you excited by Brexit

:29:37.:29:38.

by the next two years? Do you think maybe you would

:29:39.:29:41.

advocate going back to the blue black British passports,

:29:42.:29:43.

or getting away from Just the sort of emotional feel

:29:44.:29:45.

about Brexit, is it one I do not want us to be

:29:46.:29:49.

an isolated country, I do not want us to say

:29:50.:29:59.

to our children, sorry, you will not have a chance to go

:30:00.:30:01.

and study at a European University. They will not have a

:30:02.:30:05.

chance to come here. I do not want us

:30:06.:30:12.

to cut ourselves off. Either from Europe or from

:30:13.:30:14.

the rest of the world. We have to have a foreign policy

:30:15.:30:17.

where we promote peace, justice, human rights and democracy

:30:18.:30:21.

around the world. We have to have a trade relationship

:30:22.:30:23.

with people that is fair All those things I see

:30:24.:30:26.

as a huge opportunity. It is going to be

:30:27.:30:29.

a fascinating next two years. We are very clear, our priorities

:30:30.:30:31.

are living standards, Let's discuss the Prime Minister's

:30:32.:30:34.

speech now with broadcaster and Brexit supporter,

:30:35.:30:46.

Julia Hartley-Brewer Evening. Julia were you happy with

:30:47.:30:54.

what you heard in I was. I was waiting for the "but" it did tick

:30:55.:31:04.

every box. Your side very happy. Got our cake and eating it. Nothing

:31:05.:31:08.

about compromising. People voted to leave. We are going to leave.

:31:09.:31:12.

Nothing about compromise. What about your side, Polly? I think everybody

:31:13.:31:17.

who voted remain is, basically, grieving today. People have held on

:31:18.:31:20.

for six months to this idea that there might be some kind of soft

:31:21.:31:25.

Brexit. Might have a Norwegian model or Swiss model. It's gone. Theresa

:31:26.:31:30.

May made the decision, it's about immigration at any cost. That means

:31:31.:31:33.

we can't be part of the single market or the customs union. She had

:31:34.:31:37.

a big passage on the country must unify, we are going to unify. It's

:31:38.:31:41.

OK we are a united people. We can put the referendum behind us. Do you

:31:42.:31:47.

think your side will buy into that vision? I think it's galling to be

:31:48.:31:53.

told to unify with somebody you fundamentally disagree with and get

:31:54.:31:56.

in line because, sorry, you lost. The rhetoric - What are the other

:31:57.:32:01.

options, you lost. That's true. We should say, we won't leave the EU

:32:02.:32:05.

even though more people wanted to leave the EU than wanted to stay in

:32:06.:32:10.

a binary vote. I don't understand what compromise you think there is.

:32:11.:32:14.

The soft Brexit type options. It's not Brexit. It is. The more people

:32:15.:32:19.

thought about it, when you think about the offers you are going to

:32:20.:32:23.

get, you basically stay in or virtually in or... Absolutely. Lots

:32:24.:32:27.

of people have been clinging to the hope we will stay partly in. I don't

:32:28.:32:31.

think lots of people have. Most of the remainers I know, many wanted us

:32:32.:32:35.

to get on with it. They are happy and accept the democratic vote. I

:32:36.:32:39.

wonder... You are describing your set, Polly. Is it 80% of the country

:32:40.:32:44.

will say - that is what we voted for, you know, it sounds perfectly

:32:45.:32:48.

straight-forward and Theresa May has got a clarity about it and a

:32:49.:32:52.

simplicity about it? When you look at the polling there is a big group

:32:53.:32:58.

of people who would say they prioritise single market access and

:32:59.:33:02.

economic access over immigration. People like Theresa May decided

:33:03.:33:07.

immigration comes first. A substantial part of the population,

:33:08.:33:12.

40%, will be dancing on top of the table. We all have access to the

:33:13.:33:16.

single market. With he have to stop using the term - everybody does. You

:33:17.:33:20.

will acknowledge there is a chance the deal will be less pleasant than

:33:21.:33:25.

the one? I accept that we may end up with no deal. I'm willing - I like

:33:26.:33:29.

most levers are willing to accept that. Worst-case scenario. No blame

:33:30.:33:34.

will be attached to the Europeans? Like David Cameron with his

:33:35.:33:38.

negotiations. We dediscovered before hand it was a fake negotiation. To

:33:39.:33:43.

no pretence. Had he asked for less than he said he would ask and less

:33:44.:33:49.

than theure leaders thaw thought they would ask for. If people feel

:33:50.:33:55.

that Theresa May means what she says and goes in, be confident and strong

:33:56.:33:58.

and lay it on the table I don't think they will blame her. I think

:33:59.:34:01.

they will blame the other EU laiders. If we talk about the

:34:02.:34:08.

politics. Good for the Liberal Democrats, it polarises it around if

:34:09.:34:11.

you are a grieving remainor you know where to go, basically. There is

:34:12.:34:16.

only one party that has a clear let's stay in the single market and

:34:17.:34:19.

maintain a close relationship with Europe, that is the Liberal

:34:20.:34:22.

Democrats. The SNP in Scotland. The Labour Party is falling to pieces

:34:23.:34:26.

over this. I think the person who came out of today is worst is Jeremy

:34:27.:34:31.

Corbyn. What about Ukip, Julia? Does it kill Ukip? I have to say you can

:34:32.:34:37.

see on Twitter and online Ukip were being, oh, God, she is stealing all

:34:38.:34:41.

our clothes. It depends what happens in these upcoming by-elections,

:34:42.:34:44.

particularly what happens in Stoke-on-Trent Central. If Ukip are

:34:45.:34:48.

going to win any seat, they will win Stoke. Who will vote for Ukip rather

:34:49.:34:54.

than the Tories? That is the Irish issue. Theresa May is offering what

:34:55.:34:59.

they are are offering. How much do people trust Theresa May. People do

:35:00.:35:02.

trust Theresa May. It's an opportunity for the Lib Dems. Apart

:35:03.:35:05.

from the whole - we don't believe in democratic votes thing. It might put

:35:06.:35:11.

off quite a lot of voters. Julia, Polly, thank you very much indeed.

:35:12.:35:19.

Now, the irony was not lost on anyone today.

:35:20.:35:21.

Britain is aiming to become more global -

:35:22.:35:23.

in the words of Theresa May - just as the US is arguably

:35:24.:35:26.

Donald Trump is talking about protection and, in doing so,

:35:27.:35:30.

disrupting the normal rules based system of world trade.

:35:31.:35:32.

So guess who stepped up to the plate today to defend the system

:35:33.:35:35.

It was Xi Jinping, the President of China,

:35:36.:35:38.

over at the World Economic Forum in Davos, that's the annual

:35:39.:35:41.

conference that the grown-ups of globalisation go to and where

:35:42.:35:43.

Xi's speech was a defence of that globalised order.

:35:44.:35:47.

TRANSLATION: It's true that economic globalisation has

:35:48.:35:52.

created new problems, but this is no justification to

:35:53.:35:54.

Rather we should guide and adapt to globalisation,

:35:55.:36:00.

cushion its negative impact and deliver its benefits

:36:01.:36:02.

That was in a translation, obviously.

:36:03.:36:15.

Is Xi's appearance there now some kind of global leadership bid?

:36:16.:36:17.

The author and China watcher, Isabel Hilton, thinks it might be.

:36:18.:36:21.

In February 1972, the then President of the United States,

:36:22.:36:24.

Richard Nixon, visited Beijing, the capital of a country the US

:36:25.:36:27.

didn't recognise and whose economy was smaller than Belgium's.

:36:28.:36:31.

Its leader, Mao Zedong, had left China only twice,

:36:32.:36:33.

both times to visit the Soviet Union.

:36:34.:36:37.

This morning, his successor, Xi Jinping, was the headline act

:36:38.:36:40.

We got here because the US built a global trading

:36:41.:36:50.

system and a liberal rules -based international order.

:36:51.:36:52.

China didn't buy the values, but profited from the globalisation.

:36:53.:36:54.

So as Donald Trump talks of dismantling the system,

:36:55.:37:01.

China's communist leader is now its biggest deffender.

:37:02.:37:05.

Americanism, not globalism, will be our new credo.

:37:06.:37:08.

It's the new moment in the complex relationship between two global

:37:09.:37:13.

giants, one rising and one established power.

:37:14.:37:19.

Each measures itself against the other, both argue

:37:20.:37:21.

Both have super rich elites and both leaders promote

:37:22.:37:24.

Tensions between them have rarely been higher.

:37:25.:37:33.

Two years ago, Beijing's required reading wasn't the thoughts of Mao,

:37:34.:37:38.

but the Thucydides trap, the theory that conflict

:37:39.:37:40.

between a rising and an established power is as inevitable today

:37:41.:37:45.

as it was when Athens and Sparta went to war 2,500 years ago.

:37:46.:37:52.

Donald Trump 's advisers seem to agree.

:37:53.:37:54.

He does want to rewrite the global rules in China's

:37:55.:37:58.

favour, but he argues that everybody would benefit.

:37:59.:38:00.

Donald Trump is more of a zero-sum thinker - if he wins,

:38:01.:38:09.

Making America great again doesn't seem to come with global benefits.

:38:10.:38:14.

Thucydides argued that war was inevitable because of

:38:15.:38:15.

# You can't always get what you want...

:38:16.:38:27.

#. Donald Trump's mood swings

:38:28.:38:31.

are alarmingly familiar by now and Xi Jinping stands to gain

:38:32.:38:33.

by presenting himself Until now, China's bid for global

:38:34.:38:35.

leadership has been constrained With President Trump,

:38:36.:38:38.

that may come to matter rather less. Well, I suppose the question

:38:39.:38:45.

is whether China really can be a global leader and free trade

:38:46.:38:48.

champion, or whether it just talks Isabel Hilton is with me,

:38:49.:38:51.

and from Washington, Dan Blumenthal, the director of Asian Studies

:38:52.:38:54.

at the American Do you think China is a serious

:38:55.:39:02.

grownup player with potential leadership potential? I think it's a

:39:03.:39:09.

very serious player, but I don't think it can lead or wants to lead

:39:10.:39:15.

on issues of open markets and globalisation. It lacks the rule of

:39:16.:39:21.

law. It carries a massive trade surplus, market reforms within China

:39:22.:39:28.

itself have gone away since about 2003-2004. It's highly indebted. It

:39:29.:39:37.

doesn't allow individual freedoms or freedoms that help markets work, in

:39:38.:39:43.

terms of information and access. So I think it's certainly a serious

:39:44.:39:47.

player, but it's not going to lead the world in further liberalisation.

:39:48.:39:53.

What do you think Xi was trying to go then, in the weeks of Trump

:39:54.:39:57.

inAugustation and laying out the manifesto, the Davos manifesto. What

:39:58.:40:08.

was going on there then? -- inaugration. I think he's current

:40:09.:40:15.

that President-elect Trump might take actions with respect to China

:40:16.:40:18.

that he wouldn't want to happen. He does want to avoid what people call

:40:19.:40:22.

a trade war with respect to the US and China. China is not in a good

:40:23.:40:28.

economic position. It's stagnating. It's not in a terrific political

:40:29.:40:33.

situation. Xi certainly has a lot of enemies. He cannot really afford a

:40:34.:40:38.

relationship with the United States or with anyone really that gets too

:40:39.:40:44.

contentious. So I think he's... I think that's what he is speaking to.

:40:45.:40:49.

I think he certainly does still need access to the US market. I do think

:40:50.:40:57.

he's, in some ways, trying to persuade and convince through Davos

:40:58.:41:03.

and the globalised elites of President Trump not to take tough

:41:04.:41:08.

action on traded vis-a-vis China. China is not the great global

:41:09.:41:12.

player, is it? Not such a great citizen? It's the second largest

:41:13.:41:17.

economy in the world. That's true. It achieved that within 40 years

:41:18.:41:21.

because of globalisation. China will do what it takes to defend

:41:22.:41:31.

globalisation. President-elect Trump has insulted every major ally the

:41:32.:41:35.

United States has. He said you can depend on us not to walk away from

:41:36.:41:41.

commitments, defend the systems we signed and the system that supported

:41:42.:41:45.

all of us it's extremely unclear what the United States is going to

:41:46.:41:49.

do. It's a message, coming out of a certain vulnerability. They stand to

:41:50.:41:53.

lose - Absolutely. Who isn't vulnerable. Who doesn't stand to

:41:54.:41:56.

lose if the global system descends into chaos? I can't see what the

:41:57.:42:01.

United States stands to gain either. Dan, how much disruption to the

:42:02.:42:05.

world rules-based system is Donald Trump going to be? He has said a lot

:42:06.:42:11.

of tough. I will slap tariffs on BMW cars from Mexico. That would breach

:42:12.:42:16.

the rules-based system. Is he going to go through with it? We are at a

:42:17.:42:21.

point where we have to wait and see what his Cabinet and what his

:42:22.:42:25.

economic team and what his State Department wants to do. Because just

:42:26.:42:32.

today, for example, he came out against the border adjustment

:42:33.:42:39.

tariff. He came out against labelling China currency

:42:40.:42:46.

manipulator. Certainly, his Secretary of Defence and Secretary

:42:47.:42:49.

of State talked about the importance of American leadership and the

:42:50.:42:52.

importance of human rights and democracy and free, ma. We will have

:42:53.:42:57.

to wait and see. It's something entirely new. The United States has

:42:58.:43:00.

never elected an outsider before. Certainly not one with a career

:43:01.:43:06.

outside of politics. So we are really going to have to wait and see

:43:07.:43:09.

what the team decides to do once it's in place. Is that what really

:43:10.:43:14.

hinges it for China is whether Trump turns out to be the more

:43:15.:43:19.

conventional Trump or outlandish Trump? I haven't seen the more

:43:20.:43:23.

conventional Trump, perhaps you have. China bashing in an elections

:43:24.:43:28.

campaign is standard practice in the United States. What is different

:43:29.:43:32.

here is the behaviour of the transition of the President-elect

:43:33.:43:37.

and Mr Tillerson who threatens to stop China accessing islands in the

:43:38.:43:41.

South China Sea without apparently any means of doing it. I think we

:43:42.:43:46.

are in for some interesting We certainly are times. . Thank you

:43:47.:43:47.

very much indeed. The inauguration of President Trump

:43:48.:44:08.

is on Friday. Tomorrow we have the view of blogger Andrew Sullivan. But

:44:09.:44:13.

tonight we start with Mr Kimball. Next to the election

:44:14.:44:18.

of Donald J Trump, the most remarkable thing about the US

:44:19.:44:20.

presidential election of 2016 has to be the reaction

:44:21.:44:23.

to the election of Donald J Trump. I cannot recall a greater outpouring

:44:24.:44:27.

of rage, angst, paranoia, At universities across the country,

:44:28.:44:32.

professors, deans and college presidents have circulated

:44:33.:44:44.

community wide memoranda registering their shock, confusion,

:44:45.:44:46.

and fear at the prospect Colleges are offering

:44:47.:44:48.

special safe places, replete with grief counsellors,

:44:49.:44:54.

puppies, and Play-Doh Meanwhile, Donald Trump has

:44:55.:44:58.

assembled a cabinet of astonishing General James "Mad Dog" Mattis

:44:59.:45:08.

for Secretary of Defence. Senator Jeff Sessions

:45:09.:45:16.

for Attorney General. Exxon's Rex Tillerson

:45:17.:45:19.

for Secretary of State. But given the yeasty

:45:20.:45:24.

and histrionic environment that Mr Trump is entering,

:45:25.:45:26.

he would be well advised to take a page from the Prince Machiavelli's

:45:27.:45:30.

"how to" handbook for aspiring I'm thinking in particular

:45:31.:45:35.

of Machiavelli's astute observation that if you have to do unpleasant

:45:36.:45:43.

things, do them all at one stroke so as not to have

:45:44.:45:47.

to repeat them daily. The success of Mr Trump's

:45:48.:45:51.

administration will But all will be for

:45:52.:45:54.

naught if he tarries. It's not just the first 100

:45:55.:46:04.

days that will matter. He should sit down at his desk

:46:05.:46:08.

the afternoon of January 20 and rescind every executive order

:46:09.:46:16.

issued by President Obama. On day one, Trump should also order

:46:17.:46:20.

that America's immigration He should endorse the Keystone

:46:21.:46:29.

pipeline, embrace fracking, and rescind the punitive

:46:30.:46:32.

regulation on coal. Obamacare, he said a few days back,

:46:33.:46:39.

has been a catastrophic event that must be repealed,

:46:40.:46:42.

probably sometime next week. And replaced very quickly,

:46:43.:46:45.

or simultaneously. All of this should be

:46:46.:46:49.

announced in the course of his inauguration speech,

:46:50.:46:52.

or immediately afterwards. The media will howl, the political

:46:53.:46:56.

establishment will squeal. But they will have been rendered

:46:57.:47:02.

impotent and irrelevant Now, a little over an hour ago,

:47:03.:47:06.

news came from the US that Chelsea Manning,

:47:07.:47:21.

who had been imprisoned for 35 years for leaking a cache of classified

:47:22.:47:23.

diplomatic files to Wikileaks - has had her sentence

:47:24.:47:26.

commuted by President Obama, Born Bradley Manning,

:47:27.:47:28.

she will be freed on 17 May instead The leak was one of the largest

:47:29.:47:35.

breaches of classified I'm joined via Skype

:47:36.:47:41.

now by Glenn Greenwald, the journalist and campaigner

:47:42.:47:45.

who has met Chelsea Manning What state was she in when you saw?

:47:46.:48:02.

I solve it in 2014 and her spirits were quite good. She was building a

:48:03.:48:08.

life in prison and in the process of transitioning to a woman which is

:48:09.:48:12.

what she had wanted for a long time. I was struck by how good she was but

:48:13.:48:17.

I spent probably hundreds of hours since with her on the telephone and

:48:18.:48:22.

in the past 12 or 16 months her mental state and condition had

:48:23.:48:26.

deteriorated significantly. She became depressed and tried twice to

:48:27.:48:31.

commit suicide and was punished for it by prison authorities. Clearly

:48:32.:48:35.

there was a risk to her well-being if not her life if she remained in

:48:36.:48:42.

this prison. It is a commutation and not a pardon and there is a

:48:43.:48:46.

difference. If you're pardoned the crime is written off and if you are

:48:47.:48:50.

commuted it is the sentence that is written. It bother you, that

:48:51.:48:55.

distinction and the fact that it was not a pardon. If I had my wish I

:48:56.:49:00.

would have wished she had been pardoned, I do not think she should

:49:01.:49:03.

have spent a single day in prison. But when someone you admire and has

:49:04.:49:09.

inspired millions around the world faces another 30 years in prison,

:49:10.:49:13.

and instead you find out she will be there just for four months, your is

:49:14.:49:24.

not to complain or think about how things could be better but to be

:49:25.:49:27.

happy for her that she will be liberated. Where does she stand in

:49:28.:49:29.

the pantheon of great whistle-blowers in your opinion.

:49:30.:49:32.

Well Daniel Ellsberg, widely regarded as probably the pioneer of

:49:33.:49:39.

this, a hero for showing the American people how the US

:49:40.:49:44.

Government was lying to them about the Vietnam War, he said that

:49:45.:49:48.

Chelsea Manning was who he was waiting for for 40 years. So I agree

:49:49.:49:57.

that there was a similar motive and an extreme amount of courage. Either

:49:58.:50:04.

implications for Julian Assange? I do not think so, he said on Twitter

:50:05.:50:11.

a couple of days ago that if a banner would commute the sentence of

:50:12.:50:17.

Chelsea Manning he would be willing to come to the US. -- Obama. I think

:50:18.:50:26.

it - is and reminds us that with WikiLeaks they have performed

:50:27.:50:31.

important journalistic services. But I do not think it will affect the

:50:32.:50:35.

current situation of Julian Assange. Thank you very much.

:50:36.:50:38.

Wednesday begins with a frost across much of East Anglia and south-east

:50:39.:51:01.

England, a hard frost in the countryside but some sunny spells to

:51:02.:51:09.

follow. There will be a lot of cloud around but dry across Northern

:51:10.:51:14.

Ireland. Some patchy drizzle into the West of Scotland into the

:51:15.:51:19.

With Evan Davis. Reaction to Theresa May's speech on Britain exiting the EU, a look at China, a peak at Donald Trump's 'to do' list and Barack Obama releases Chelsea Manning.


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