18/01/2017 Newsnight


18/01/2017

Did Europe like Theresa May's message? Could there be war in the Gambia? Might Trump the populist become Trump the tyrant? With Emily Maitlis and Kirsty Wark.


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Was Theresa May's upbeat speech about a mutually beneficial EU

:00:00.:00:00.

Judging by the reaction of EU leaders today,

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The French boss of the IMF told Newsnight has this warning.

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When you belong to a club, whatever that is, either sports or

:00:20.:00:27.

intellectual, whatever, the members of the club have a degree of

:00:28.:00:30.

affinity and particular terms under by they operate. Somebody outside

:00:31.:00:36.

the club sport or intellectual or whatever have a different access.

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is was both the EU Trade Commissioner

:00:42.:00:41.

and the head of the World Post election chaos

:00:42.:00:45.

in Gambia tonight - the defeated President refuses

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to go, thousands flee fearing bloodshed, as Nigerian and Sengalese

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military forces prepare What's it like to watch

:00:53.:00:54.

on as your country is under threat? And could Trump be

:00:55.:01:01.

a tyrant in the making. Eventually he stands alone,

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offering the addled, distracted and self-indulgent

:01:04.:01:13.

citizens a kind of relief from democracy's endless

:01:14.:01:15.

choices and insecurities. Now that the Prime Minister had laid

:01:16.:01:30.

out her vision for Brexit, skills in diplomacy and negotiation,

:01:31.:01:34.

both from British politicians and civil servants,

:01:35.:01:36.

are at a premium. Obviously someone forgot to tell

:01:37.:01:39.

that to the Foreign Secretary, who, in comments made in India,

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appeared to throw shade Boris Johnson compared

:01:45.:01:47.

the French President to a character in a WWII movie administering

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"punishment beatings" after, apparently, an aide to Hollande said

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that Britain shouldn't expect a better trading relationship

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with the EU after Brexit. Maybe it's a good thing

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that the Foreign Secratry isn't in Davos where all the talk

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is about the manner of Brexit. Our economics editor Kamal Ahmed

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is in the swiss resort this evening. Lots of reaction to Theresa May's

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speech, but what is the news in Davos about it? Well, I think

:02:20.:02:26.

Kirstie, today here in Davos we had the sort of day after the party. I

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think the speech itself, while not made here by Theresa May, went down

:02:32.:02:36.

pretty well. There is this idea at least we had some certainty all the

:02:37.:02:40.

nods and winks about being in or out of the single market were over.

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Theresa May made it clear Britain was coming out of the European

:02:44.:02:49.

Union, but today, a bit of the hand over, the day after. We have had

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news today from banks here, HSBC based in London and the Swiss bank

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UBS they will be moving jobs or are looking at moving them from London,

:03:01.:03:04.

on to the European continent, because Britain would be out of the

:03:05.:03:07.

single market and that would mean that some of their service, they

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provide from London, would have to be provided from within the European

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Union, and as you say, Kirstie, noises off from the Foreign

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Secretary, some negative reactions from France, to the comments by

:03:23.:03:27.

Boris Johnson and really a negative thought today, from Davos. Don't

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forget here, most businesses supported Britain remaining in the

:03:32.:03:34.

European Union. So it is a particular type of cohort you get in

:03:35.:03:38.

Britain, which doesn't mean they speak for the whole of British

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business. Earlier today I interviewed the head of the

:03:44.:03:46.

international monetary fund, Christine Lagarde who has been

:03:47.:03:51.

negative about Brexit in the past, and I started by asking her if the

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yuck leaving the single market -- UK leaving the single market would be

:03:59.:04:00.

You have to look at all the parameters.

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You have to look at the monetary policy, the exchange rate,

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You have to look at the engines for growth, whether that very

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solid UK consumption which has held the economy together,

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and better than we had thought, will last.

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Whether investment, both domestic and from the rest

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of the world, will persist, or whether there will be

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a significant reduction, and under what terms the exports

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will eventually take place between the UK

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What I know for sure is that there's a lot of work to be done

:04:28.:04:32.

in the coming weeks, months and possibly years.

:04:33.:04:38.

Risks to economic growth, then, for Britain and

:04:39.:04:40.

for the European Union through this process?

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Uncertainty is always a risk, and we know where

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As you pointed out, the UK is still in the European Union,

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and trade and movement of capitals and operations of banks

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are still being conducted under the same pattern

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What it is two years after the trigger has been pulled -

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Before the referendum, the IMF was very clear

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that the results of a Brexit vote, you said yourself, would go

:05:09.:05:11.

The UK economy has defied expectations,

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Were you wrong when you said that before the referendum?

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I think what has been extraordinary is firstly the action

:05:28.:05:29.

of the Bank of England, which has sort of instantly taken

:05:30.:05:32.

hold of the situation, decided remedies,

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and supported the economy in a very, very vigorous and efficient way.

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What has also been quite remarkable is the behaviour

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The way in which, with confidence, they've continued to consume

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Now, we are still of the view that, particularly on the investment

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front, and on the export or trade front, there is still yet to come.

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And by that I mean, once uncertainty clears, and if people feel

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that their ability to set up shop in the UK and operate throughout

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the geographical area that is the European Union

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is not working as well as it did, their investment

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In the same vein, if exports are subject to significant tariffs,

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restrictions and so on, the ability of the UK

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to activate that trade engine is going to be reduced.

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So while we have upgraded our forecast for 2017,

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We are still of the view that it will not be positive

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Can I just put a quote to you by the Maltese Prime Minister,

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Joseph Muscat, who said that any UK-EU deal necessarily needs to be

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inferior to membership of the European Union.

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You know, when you belong to a club, whatever that is,

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either sports or intellectual, whatever, the members of the club

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have a degree of affinity, and particular terms

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Somebody outside the club, sports or intellectual or whatever,

:07:20.:07:27.

have a different access, and I think he's referring to that.

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So it would be a less good deal for Britain?

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It would certainly be different, and if being part of a club

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is optimising and leveraging your membership,

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We're here at Davos, a big debate that you've been very

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closely involved in for many years about equality, about elite,

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about the way the world operates and economies operate,

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does it give you a sense that it's all a little bit ridiculous?

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That we are speaking here in this resort,

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where you can look out there at business people

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This is just totally out of touch, is it not, with the real world?

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Everyone is talking here about inequality, but actually,

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it's just completely out of touch, and it's slightly ridiculous.

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The world looks at this and thinks, you just don't get it.

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I think it was your former Prime Minister, Winston Churchill,

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who said that it is better to chat-chat than to war-war,

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and whether you talk economics or whether you talk military,

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people have a tendency to confront, to have adversarial debates,

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and if they are here to talk, to have a dialogue,

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to confront their views to other people's views,

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who don't necessarily look like them.

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You have a lot of NGOs present here, you have a lot of young leaders,

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a lot of global shapers, who are not the ones that

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you've just portrayed, and there is huge value in that.

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So, easy to criticise, and value to be had from people

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actually confronting their views and trying to make sense

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of the negative and positive narratives

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Our Prime Minister, Theresa May, has criticised what she calls

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Do you think of yourself as a citizen of nowhere?

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You know, what defines your citizenship is your language,

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your culture, your background, your education, your family roots,

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the smell of the trees in the morning.

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But can you see the critics might say, for someone like you, the head

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of the International Monetary Fund, you live a different life,

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I have to care for far more people than my community,

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and what I'm trying to do is to help the entire community,

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Some of them have rock bottom GDP per capita.

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Others are 50 times better off, but we have to care for all of them,

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because our mission is stability, and without stability,

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whether it's in defence terms or economic terms,

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But what if all the diplomacy and negotiating skills the UK can

:10:12.:10:20.

muster don't get us a trade deal with the EU, and we have

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to fall back on membership of the World Trade organisation?

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In a moment, I'll be talking to Pascal Lamy,

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But first here's our policy editor Chris Cook.

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This week there has been renewed talk of the prospect that Britain

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will end up relying on its membership of the World Trade

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Organisation and no other special deals as the basis of its trading

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relationships with the world. Theresa May's speech yesterday

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contained one very big strategic decision, she wants a comprehensive

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free trade deal between the EU and the UK unlike anything like anyone

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else has. She don't want a an off the shelf model. That means that

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puts more pressure on that two-year negotiation process, it is more

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likely we won't reach a deal, or in her term, we will take no deal

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rather than a bad deal. And no deal means operating on WTO terms.

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That is usually presented pretty bleakly. The WTO would for example

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force the EU to place 4% tariffs on British car importser customs checks

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on sales to the EU and difficulty for British far many companies

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selling drusing into Europe. Why? To understand it may help to know where

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the WTO came from. It was a body that was only set up in the 1990s,

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but, its roots are in talks that took place in the 1940s. And those

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talks were themselves aimed at preventing repetition of problems

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that occurred in the 1930s. Before the Second World War, there

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was a trade war, in 1930 the US passed the tariffs named after the

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legislators who proposed them and other countries replied in kind. The

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WTO's predecessor emerged from talks aiming to stop that from happening

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again. Why then, would a body whose founding purpose is to reduce

:12:27.:12:30.

tariffs force the EU to raise them against the UK? The EU is a member

:12:31.:12:35.

of the deal and it has no real special deal with the UK at the

:12:36.:12:39.

moment. Then what the WTO will force the EU to do is treat the UK like it

:12:40.:12:45.

treats any trade partner hand would mean increasing tariffs to the UK.

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The idea is to stop tit-for-tat 1930s style trade war, unless we cut

:12:53.:12:57.

a proper deal, the EU has to treat us like stranger, and so will places

:12:58.:13:02.

like South Korea, countries with whom we had trade o deals by via EU

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membership. . That might seem odd but it has worked. Average tariffs

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round the world from falling from 22% in 1937 to 5% now. The problem

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is, these days, modern trade barriers are less likely to be

:13:21.:13:23.

tariff, it just isn't the '30s any more. The modern WTO took its

:13:24.:13:32.

current shape at talks in 1944 in Marrakech but while its achieved in

:13:33.:13:36.

reducing tariffs is important and helpful, it hasn't been so good as

:13:37.:13:40.

preventing other sorts of rules and regulations from getting in the way

:13:41.:13:46.

of trade. These so-called non-tariff and technical barriers are much more

:13:47.:13:50.

important than tariffs In we went the rules there is no provision for

:13:51.:13:56.

cooperation between regulatory agencies which is important, if you

:13:57.:14:01.

look at the pharmaceutical sec store where we are continually producing

:14:02.:14:05.

new drugs you need to make sure they are being accepted and approved by

:14:06.:14:08.

agencies, particularly at the EU level to be able to put on the

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market. The WTO in short isn't good at

:14:13.:14:17.

reducing the admin hassle of selling is across the border or stopping

:14:18.:14:21.

local laws or approval processes that might hobble foreign companies.

:14:22.:14:25.

That is why countries strike free trade agreements.

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Pascal Lamy is a former EU trade commissioner,

:14:29.:14:30.

and was director-general of the World Trade Organisation.

:14:31.:14:36.

He joins us now from Davos. Good evening. We will come on to talk

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about the WTO possibilities in a moment, but first, in July last

:14:47.:14:51.

chair, as far as Brexit negotiations were concerned, you said it would be

:14:52.:14:56.

complex and nasty. Do you still hold that view? Yes. It's going to be

:14:57.:15:07.

complex, bumpy and nasty, like any trade negotiation. We know that by

:15:08.:15:12.

experience, unless we invent the first ever trade negotiation in

:15:13.:15:17.

history which would be a love affair. I don't really believe it

:15:18.:15:24.

can happen. Except Theresa May is determined to invent something. She

:15:25.:15:28.

doesn't want an off-the-shelf deal like Norway. She wants a bold and

:15:29.:15:32.

ambitious free trade agreement with the EU. How would that work? I think

:15:33.:15:39.

that's what we have to do now, now that the UK has decided to leave the

:15:40.:15:47.

internal market, as you just said in your excellent summary. The UK will

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be a third country, like Mexico, Korea or Japan. So UK has to

:15:54.:15:59.

negotiate the terms of access to the EU market, and the EU has to

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negotiate the terms of access to the UK market. Its seven for the size of

:16:04.:16:12.

the EU market to one, which is the size of the UK market. It's going to

:16:13.:16:20.

be complex, long, it's probably a good thing, a better thing than

:16:21.:16:27.

going to the WTO tariffs, but it will take time, and inevitably,

:16:28.:16:32.

trade will be less open than when the UK was a member of the internal

:16:33.:16:38.

market. It may have to go back to the WTO. What Christine Lagarde was

:16:39.:16:43.

saying was, if you are outside the club, you are not going to get as

:16:44.:16:47.

good a deal as if you were inside the club. No one wants to give

:16:48.:16:52.

Britain such a good deal. I wonder what you think about the idea of

:16:53.:16:58.

some companies like UBS shifting to Paris and beyond. Certain different

:16:59.:17:04.

areas, such as financial services and the car industry, might strike

:17:05.:17:09.

separate deals within the EU. What do you think of that? There will be

:17:10.:17:15.

no separate deal. It is a single undertaking. You have to to agree on

:17:16.:17:20.

everything before you agree on anything. There's no deal that would

:17:21.:17:26.

be a sector deal. This would be toughly negotiated on both sides. As

:17:27.:17:33.

you just said in your programme, the main difficulty for the British

:17:34.:17:37.

exporter to the EU continent, whether goods or services, like

:17:38.:17:42.

financial services or accounting, will be that the UK will have to

:17:43.:17:48.

match EU regulations and standards, without having any say on the

:17:49.:17:52.

regulations and standards. That's a big problem for the future. On the

:17:53.:17:58.

question of how all this operates, because we have to true God Article

:17:59.:18:05.

50 and negotiate their way out. -- trigger article 50. And then, the

:18:06.:18:10.

idea would be that simultaneously you do your fresh deal. Is that

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possible? Know. I don't think it's doable simultaneously. It can start

:18:21.:18:25.

simultaneously, but any trade negotiation of this kind is very

:18:26.:18:31.

complex and will take a long time. I am convinced this is not doable in

:18:32.:18:38.

two years. And yet David Davis, our chief negotiator, says it will be

:18:39.:18:43.

done by the end of 2018. Do you think, knowing the complexity of all

:18:44.:18:51.

this, that the UK has a sufficiently high octane negotiating team? Very

:18:52.:19:01.

difficult to say. What I know is that, like any other EU member, the

:19:02.:19:08.

UK disbanded its trade expertise when it was transferred to the

:19:09.:19:13.

European Union, so they have to reconstitute a whole body of trade

:19:14.:19:19.

experts and trade negotiators. This will inevitably take time, and by

:19:20.:19:24.

the way, be pretty costly. At least, that's what I'm told by my friends

:19:25.:19:29.

in the consulting and the legal business. So how long do you think

:19:30.:19:36.

it would take to strike a new deal with the EU? I don't know of any

:19:37.:19:43.

trade negotiation that lasted less than five to seven years, which

:19:44.:19:49.

means that there will need to be a sort of interim arrangement which

:19:50.:19:55.

will have to be negotiated before we move to the new trade regime. So

:19:56.:20:02.

Theresa May is a saying, I don't want a bad deal. What if there is no

:20:03.:20:08.

deal, and then we fall back on WTO rules? With this tariff of, for

:20:09.:20:18.

example, 10% on car imports to the EU, will it apply to Britain

:20:19.:20:25.

automatically? That's a possibility if there is no deal, as you rightly

:20:26.:20:33.

say. You go back to the WTO rules, but those rules are worse for the

:20:34.:20:39.

UK, and for the EU into the UK, than a good deal. So that's ad? This

:20:40.:20:50.

notion that no deal rather than a bad deal is something all trade

:20:51.:20:53.

negotiators have been saying all the time. If you have an option between

:20:54.:21:08.

going back to the WTO rules, or the ideal, which is full of pain, you

:21:09.:21:12.

will choose the full of pain. You know Boris Johnson. Do you think you

:21:13.:21:21.

should be one of the lead people in negotiations, given what he said

:21:22.:21:24.

today that so offended so many French? Look, what Boris Johnson

:21:25.:21:33.

said today leads me to wonder whether it's Donald Johnson or Boris

:21:34.:21:40.

Trump! It is a clear embarrassment for all of these high-flying

:21:41.:21:45.

diplomats in the Foreign Office, and they deserve all of our compassion.

:21:46.:21:50.

Thank you very much indeed, Pascal Lambie.

:21:51.:21:53.

Is the military about to be deployed to enforce the election

:21:54.:21:56.

Tonight, the Nigerian Air Force and Senegalese troops are on standby

:21:57.:22:00.

because of the outgoing president Yahya Jammeh's refusal to relinquish

:22:01.:22:02.

Today, the UN said at least 26,000 people, mainly women and children,

:22:03.:22:07.

have fled the country across the border into Senegal.

:22:08.:22:13.

The Gambia, a small state in west Africa sandwiched by Senegal,

:22:14.:22:16.

normally calls itself the "Smiling Coast" -

:22:17.:22:19.

its sunny beaches making it a popular tourist destination.

:22:20.:22:22.

But the fear of violence and military strikes is now hanging

:22:23.:22:26.

As locals are fleeing over the border, China has

:22:27.:22:31.

evacuated its citizens, and tourists are being

:22:32.:22:33.

It's basically that we are going to evacuate everyone back home tonight.

:22:34.:22:41.

President Yahya Jammeh seized power in 1994 at the age of 29.

:22:42.:22:46.

He's survived several coup attempts to rule for the past 22 years.

:22:47.:22:54.

Last December, he lost the presidential election

:22:55.:22:58.

to a candidate backed by a strong opposition coalition.

:22:59.:23:00.

Despite initially conceding the result and appearing to hand

:23:01.:23:04.

We hereby declare a state of public emergency,

:23:05.:23:12.

throughout the Islamic Republic of the Gambia.

:23:13.:23:16.

The President-Elect, Adama Barrow, is due to be sworn in tomorrow.

:23:17.:23:23.

The regional bloc of West African States, Ecowas,

:23:24.:23:27.

has repeatedly warned it would launch military action

:23:28.:23:29.

if Jammeh refuses to step down before the ceremony.

:23:30.:23:34.

Jammeh once said he would rule for a billion years if Allah willed it.

:23:35.:23:38.

We are about to see if his faith in himself will be trumped

:23:39.:23:41.

Steve Cockburn is from Amnesty International and is in Senegal.

:23:42.:23:51.

Today is the deadline given by the international community

:23:52.:23:57.

for President Jammeh to step down from power and pass

:23:58.:24:00.

So far he has refused and mediation efforts have failed.

:24:01.:24:03.

This evening, the President of Mauritania has flown

:24:04.:24:05.

into the country as a last ditch effort to try and find a peaceful

:24:06.:24:09.

solution to the crisis, and at the same time forces

:24:10.:24:12.

led by Senegal and Nigeria have been preparing to launch a military

:24:13.:24:17.

intervention in the country if that peaceful process doesn't succeed.

:24:18.:24:26.

He's -- she's an interventional development writer based in the UK.

:24:27.:24:43.

-- International. Are your family all OK? Yes, they are all treating

:24:44.:24:51.

the crisis from different points of view. How are they treating it? What

:24:52.:24:59.

are they doing? Today, my mother decided she needs to stock up on

:25:00.:25:04.

rice and gas. They've been to work and come home early, and got various

:25:05.:25:10.

groceries ready to sit it out. Are they fearful? I would say they are

:25:11.:25:16.

uncomfortable, but not fearful. We've been through this before. It's

:25:17.:25:25.

tense. It's not entirely in 81? Yes. It's not entirely clear what will

:25:26.:25:31.

happen, but they have confidence that the Senegalese will come in and

:25:32.:25:37.

sort it out. You've been living with this president for a very long time.

:25:38.:25:44.

What has it been like? It's an odd mix, because basically, loads of

:25:45.:25:48.

things have been happening under the radar that have been terrible, like

:25:49.:25:52.

people who have had plastic melted on their genitals. You've heard of

:25:53.:25:57.

people disappearing, and journalists just not turning up for work the

:25:58.:26:02.

next day. So there's all this against a backdrop of a president

:26:03.:26:10.

who has also done things like spread water, so there's been renewed wells

:26:11.:26:12.

for portable water across the country. So this mix of absolute

:26:13.:26:16.

control for doing things for development, but not enough to make

:26:17.:26:24.

people become independent of view. He is clearly digging his heels in.

:26:25.:26:30.

What will shift him? The Nigerians or the Sangha Lee's? Loads of things

:26:31.:26:35.

are happening. His ministers are deserting him, so his support is

:26:36.:26:39.

draining away. What will shift him now is military force. We heard this

:26:40.:26:45.

morning that the top brass in the army were supporting him, but you

:26:46.:26:49.

think they are not? It's not entirely true. This is according to

:26:50.:26:56.

my family, but there's basically two factions in the Army. There's the

:26:57.:27:04.

soldiers, who rejoiced to the election, and there's some who are

:27:05.:27:08.

staying loyal. There are some who are ditching their uniform in the

:27:09.:27:14.

streets. The Gambia is a small place, so everybody is related to

:27:15.:27:19.

everybody else. It comes through to you that you have a personal choice,

:27:20.:27:23.

and some of the soldiers are making the choice that they would rather

:27:24.:27:29.

not continue to support him. Ecowas have acted very quickly. Why is it

:27:30.:27:34.

so critical for them to get a hold in the Gambia? The Gambia is a test

:27:35.:27:47.

case. We have had a coups and countercoups in the West Africa for

:27:48.:27:50.

a long time. Since the war in Cote d'Ivoire, we have had elections in

:27:51.:27:55.

Nigeria, and Ghana, successful and peaceful elections and changes of

:27:56.:28:01.

power. In the Gambia, there's not been one single successful peaceful

:28:02.:28:04.

change of power since I was born, so it's time to make that happen. Thank

:28:05.:28:07.

you very much indeed. President Obama gave his final press

:28:08.:28:11.

conference from The White House this evening, and ranged over subjects

:28:12.:28:14.

from Chelsea Manning to the Israeli Palestinian conflict,

:28:15.:28:16.

warning his successor over any Emily is in Washington,

:28:17.:28:19.

watching the final chapter of the Obama Presidency,

:28:20.:28:22.

and preparing to report on the next. In his last press conference,

:28:23.:28:33.

President Obama conceded that Donald Trump was unlikely to take his

:28:34.:28:40.

advice, given that he had won his election on an anti-Obama platform,

:28:41.:28:44.

but he warned the new, that perhaps he would be hit by the complexities

:28:45.:28:49.

of the role once in office, and his thinking might shift on issues like

:28:50.:28:53.

health care and jobs. He described phone calls between the two men as

:28:54.:28:58.

constructive and lengthy, and said that the best advice he could give

:28:59.:29:02.

was to try and rely on those around him. He said it was not a job for

:29:03.:29:11.

one man alone. Perhaps the most memorable moment was his rebuff to

:29:12.:29:13.

Trump. Trump has already hinted that he might move the press corps

:29:14.:29:20.

outside the White House, and he insisted that the reporters covering

:29:21.:29:24.

his administration were an essential facet of a functioning democracy.

:29:25.:29:25.

Have a listen. You're not supposed

:29:26.:29:29.

to be sycophants, you're You're supposed to ask

:29:30.:29:31.

me tough questions. You're not supposed to be

:29:32.:29:33.

complimentary, but you're supposed to cast a critical eye on folks

:29:34.:29:36.

who hold enormous power, and make sure that we are accountable

:29:37.:29:39.

to the people who sent us here, And you have done it

:29:40.:29:42.

for the most part, in ways that I could appreciate for fairness,

:29:43.:29:48.

even if I didn't always agree It will be understood as a rebuke to

:29:49.:30:03.

Trump who has picked those very public, personal fights with

:30:04.:30:08.

individual reporters and their news organisations, he Haslam Bassited in

:30:09.:30:15.

the past, for fake new, a term has almost weaponised for anything he

:30:16.:30:17.

doesn't like very much. This was the last time that Obama will speak in

:30:18.:30:23.

public as President. He leaves office with near record approval

:30:24.:30:27.

ratings and a flurry of last minute activity which might suggest an

:30:28.:30:31.

awareness of the many things he still leaves undone, so what will

:30:32.:30:35.

his legacy be like? We look back at the last eight years.

:30:36.:30:46.

We will go out and remake America and then we will change the world.

:30:47.:30:57.

When you study anyone and understand why they do it, you become more

:30:58.:31:02.

sympathetic, when you study Obama you try not to -- it is hard not to

:31:03.:31:12.

become a fan. The description he left from behind

:31:13.:31:17.

was true, you can't say that he didn't do anything, they certainly

:31:18.:31:21.

did a lot, but the actions they took, it wasn't enough to make a

:31:22.:31:22.

difference. Think we got more change than a lot

:31:23.:31:40.

of people thought possible. There were 28 million more people insured

:31:41.:31:44.

in this Cundy than there were in 2008. We are fighting to keep that

:31:45.:31:48.

right now, today as I talk to you, trying to make sure that people can

:31:49.:31:53.

keep their health care, there has been change in that, in marriage

:31:54.:31:57.

equality, there has been change all over this country when we think how

:31:58.:32:01.

marginalised people have been. There is more change that needs to happen.

:32:02.:32:14.

You cannot underestimate how bad the cards he inherited in terms of the

:32:15.:32:20.

economy, and nobody gets credit. No politician in history has got credit

:32:21.:32:27.

for averting a disaster, but, Obama the technocrat, the hard nosed

:32:28.:32:32.

technocrat, who passed the largest stimulus in US history. People talk

:32:33.:32:37.

about him unwilling to bend, but he did get Republicans to vote for that

:32:38.:32:42.

which is why it passed which is why there wasn't a second great

:32:43.:32:46.

depression. And his first two years in office he passed more legislation

:32:47.:32:51.

and did more major things really than any other progressive President

:32:52.:32:56.

has done, in living memory, and part of the problem that that caused was

:32:57.:33:00.

that there was a counter attack. We're not going to give up. We are

:33:01.:33:05.

going to fight. We are going to get rid of him in 2012.

:33:06.:33:18.

But that coalition of lejs Kated, rural people who are kind of losers

:33:19.:33:25.

in the globalisation game, is exactly the same coalition that put

:33:26.:33:28.

Donald Trump into the White House. It is just a straight line, you can

:33:29.:33:32.

see it. The Democratic Party at the grass

:33:33.:33:36.

roots has really been decimated under Obama, they have lost most of

:33:37.:33:42.

state house, the legislature, the party under Obama in some sense has

:33:43.:33:46.

hollowed out and it is going to be very hard for them to come back from

:33:47.:33:52.

that. On January 20th, I will become the first President of the United

:33:53.:33:56.

States to serve two full terms during a time of war. I wouldn't

:33:57.:34:02.

give him a great score on foreign policy, he has two successes, Cuba

:34:03.:34:07.

and Iran, they will survive. The Trump presidency, but the rest, I,

:34:08.:34:13.

you know I worked on a lot of other issue, on Isil. Syria, and Ukraine,

:34:14.:34:18.

and he wasn't as strong as he could have been.

:34:19.:34:30.

I would give Obama poor marks on Syria, I worked on Syria in the

:34:31.:34:36.

State Department for several years and I think there were several

:34:37.:34:41.

points when he had Obama done much more than he did, things really

:34:42.:34:46.

could have changed. He had legitimate reasons for avoiding

:34:47.:34:50.

getting more involved but unfortunately you ignore unpleasant

:34:51.:34:53.

parts of the world as your peril. You can't contain a conflict like

:34:54.:34:58.

Syria. We have Isil as a result of Syria and Isil by the way not just

:34:59.:35:02.

in that region but we have seen attacks in many other country, in

:35:03.:35:05.

Europe as well. We had the migration crisis. We went into rack, and it

:35:06.:35:13.

didn't work. We tried persuasion, in Egypt and it didn't work, we tried

:35:14.:35:18.

limited intervention in Libya and it didn't work, we didn't intervene in

:35:19.:35:23.

Syria and it didn't work. I mean, really, the person who said the

:35:24.:35:26.

thing you have to be is lucky, is probably got the answer.

:35:27.:35:38.

If we could recognise ourselves in one another. Bring everybody

:35:39.:35:46.

together. Democrat, Republican, ints, Latino Asian and native

:35:47.:35:49.

American. Black and white. Gay and straight. Disabled and not. The

:35:50.:35:57.

first time I went into the White House, when Barack Obama lived

:35:58.:36:01.

there, that was the first thing that came to mind, my ancestors, built

:36:02.:36:05.

that house, that house that for so long we had to enter the back door

:36:06.:36:10.

of for so long we were not allowed in the dining rooms of, let alone in

:36:11.:36:15.

the Oval office, so for a lot of us having a black man in the White

:36:16.:36:27.

House represented hope. That is not a great legacy on race

:36:28.:36:32.

but that is not Obama's legacy, that is an American legacy on race, if

:36:33.:36:36.

people are tired about hearing racism I guarantee we are far more

:36:37.:36:40.

tired of dealing with it. At the end of the day people confuse

:36:41.:36:43.

identifying racism with actual racism. That doesn't mean race

:36:44.:36:48.

relations have got worse it means people have become more aware.

:36:49.:37:00.

I am asking you to believe, not in my ability to bring about change but

:37:01.:37:08.

in yours. Yes, we can. Yes, we did. Yes we can. Thank you, God bless

:37:09.:37:13.

you. May God continue to bless the United

:37:14.:37:15.

May God continue to bless the United States.

:37:16.:37:27.

Ahead of the inauguration, feelings about Donald Trump are running high,

:37:28.:37:30.

and tonight we bring you the second of our two polarised

:37:31.:37:32.

"animated" perspectives on the incoming President.

:37:33.:37:34.

Last night, Roger Kimball, editor of the US literary

:37:35.:37:37.

magazine, The New Criterion, exhorted Trump to bring it on.

:37:38.:37:39.

Tonight, the former editor of the New Republic,

:37:40.:37:41.

the British American author and blogger Andrew Sullivan, who has

:37:42.:37:44.

As Donald Trump began his march through American democracy

:37:45.:37:56.

toward the White House earlier this year, my mind kept drifting

:37:57.:37:59.

to a passage I read years before as a graduate student,

:38:00.:38:01.

from the first book on politics ever written.

:38:02.:38:03.

The passage is from the dialogue where Socrates and his friends

:38:04.:38:12.

are talking about the nature of different political systems.

:38:13.:38:14.

How they change over time, and how one can slowly

:38:15.:38:16.

Socrates says something pretty shocking - tyranny is probably

:38:17.:38:23.

established out of no other regime than democracy.

:38:24.:38:32.

Democracy was defined as a political system which maximises two things -

:38:33.:38:34.

Everyone is equal, and everyone can do whatever he or she likes.

:38:35.:38:38.

And the longer a democracy lasts, Socrates says, the more

:38:39.:38:41.

Its freedoms multiply until it becomes a many coloured cloak,

:38:42.:38:57.

Man are interchangeable with women, and all their natural

:38:58.:39:00.

Foreigners can come and work just like citizens, children

:39:01.:39:11.

Teachers are afraid of their students, the rich

:39:12.:39:14.

Soon, every kind of inequality is despised.

:39:15.:39:22.

The wealthy are particularly loathed.

:39:23.:39:23.

And elites in general are treated as suspect,

:39:24.:39:25.

perpetuating inequality and representing injustice.

:39:26.:39:35.

It's when a democracy is evolved into this, Plato argues,

:39:36.:39:37.

that a would-be tyrant will often seize his moment.

:39:38.:39:41.

He is usually of the elite, but is in tune with the times,

:39:42.:39:45.

given over to random pleasures and whims, feasting on food,

:39:46.:39:47.

He makes his move by taking over a particularly obedient mob

:39:48.:39:55.

and attacking his wealthy peers as corrupt.

:39:56.:40:04.

He is a traitor to his class, and soon his elite enemies find

:40:05.:40:07.

a way to appease him or are forced to flee.

:40:08.:40:09.

Eventually, he stands alone, offering the addled,

:40:10.:40:11.

distracted and self-indulgent citizens a kind of relief

:40:12.:40:13.

from democracy's endless choices and insecurities.

:40:14.:40:19.

Too much freedom seems to change into nothing but too much slavery.

:40:20.:40:26.

And offers himself as the personified answer to all problems.

:40:27.:40:28.

To replace the elites and rule along on behalf of the masses.

:40:29.:40:31.

And as the people thrill to him, as a kind of solution,

:40:32.:40:34.

a democracy willingly impetuosly repeals itself.

:40:35.:40:48.

But the music world is today mourning the death of the Nigerian

:40:49.:40:56.

If you've never heard of him, that's because he never

:40:57.:41:00.

performed on screen, and he quit the music business years

:41:01.:41:03.

before he even found fame to become a born again Christian,

:41:04.:41:05.

and pretty much ignored his subsequent feting by the legion

:41:06.:41:08.

of western musicians who he profoundly influenced.

:41:09.:41:12.

So we'll leave you instead with Talking Head's David Byrne

:41:13.:41:14.

and the Atomic Bomb band, performing Onyeabor's song

:41:15.:41:16.

Fantastic Man on the Jimmy Fallon Show in 2015.

:41:17.:41:18.

# I want you try to tell me how you feel about me, girl

:41:19.:41:27.

# Tell me, tell me, tell me, tell me, tell me

:41:28.:41:37.

Good evening. With high pressure sitting across the country any

:41:38.:42:06.

changes in the weather for the next few days will be slow. So we start

:42:07.:42:11.

with a frost again, in clearer areas than the south. Some fog and frost

:42:12.:42:15.

and fog where we see the breaks further north. But, the breaks will

:42:16.:42:21.

be limited we think across Northern Ireland and Scotland, mostly dry,

:42:22.:42:25.

east of the Grampians that is the best chance of drier, brighter

:42:26.:42:31.

weather or sunshine once the fog clears, perhaps fog. There could be

:42:32.:42:36.

low level fog as you can see in Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the

:42:37.:42:39.

Midland. There is no strength in the sunshine or in fact no wind as well,

:42:40.:42:43.

to move it on. But in the south, after a hard frost, should be

:42:44.:42:49.

sparkling sunshine again. But a nice day, we may see that extend into

:42:50.:42:52.

parts of Wales as well, through the course of Thursday, that is in

:42:53.:42:57.

contrast to Wednesday. But, as I say, there will be be a lot of

:42:58.:43:01.

cloudy, but dry weather. Friday, perhaps a few more breaks in

:43:02.:43:06.

the cloud, indicated in Inverness, temperatures not so high and as we

:43:07.:43:08.

head further south

:43:09.:43:10.