Browse content similar to 18/01/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Was Theresa May's upbeat speech about a mutually beneficial EU | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
Judging by the reaction of EU leaders today, | :00:00. | :00:13. | |
The French boss of the IMF told Newsnight has this warning. | :00:14. | :00:19. | |
When you belong to a club, whatever that is, either sports or | :00:20. | :00:27. | |
intellectual, whatever, the members of the club have a degree of | :00:28. | :00:30. | |
affinity and particular terms under by they operate. Somebody outside | :00:31. | :00:36. | |
the club sport or intellectual or whatever have a different access. | :00:37. | :00:41. | |
is was both the EU Trade Commissioner | :00:42. | :00:41. | |
and the head of the World Post election chaos | :00:42. | :00:45. | |
in Gambia tonight - the defeated President refuses | :00:46. | :00:50. | |
to go, thousands flee fearing bloodshed, as Nigerian and Sengalese | :00:51. | :00:52. | |
military forces prepare What's it like to watch | :00:53. | :00:54. | |
on as your country is under threat? And could Trump be | :00:55. | :01:01. | |
a tyrant in the making. Eventually he stands alone, | :01:02. | :01:03. | |
offering the addled, distracted and self-indulgent | :01:04. | :01:13. | |
citizens a kind of relief from democracy's endless | :01:14. | :01:15. | |
choices and insecurities. Now that the Prime Minister had laid | :01:16. | :01:30. | |
out her vision for Brexit, skills in diplomacy and negotiation, | :01:31. | :01:34. | |
both from British politicians and civil servants, | :01:35. | :01:36. | |
are at a premium. Obviously someone forgot to tell | :01:37. | :01:39. | |
that to the Foreign Secretary, who, in comments made in India, | :01:40. | :01:44. | |
appeared to throw shade Boris Johnson compared | :01:45. | :01:47. | |
the French President to a character in a WWII movie administering | :01:48. | :01:50. | |
"punishment beatings" after, apparently, an aide to Hollande said | :01:51. | :01:55. | |
that Britain shouldn't expect a better trading relationship | :01:56. | :01:58. | |
with the EU after Brexit. Maybe it's a good thing | :01:59. | :02:01. | |
that the Foreign Secratry isn't in Davos where all the talk | :02:02. | :02:03. | |
is about the manner of Brexit. Our economics editor Kamal Ahmed | :02:04. | :02:06. | |
is in the swiss resort this evening. Lots of reaction to Theresa May's | :02:07. | :02:19. | |
speech, but what is the news in Davos about it? Well, I think | :02:20. | :02:26. | |
Kirstie, today here in Davos we had the sort of day after the party. I | :02:27. | :02:31. | |
think the speech itself, while not made here by Theresa May, went down | :02:32. | :02:36. | |
pretty well. There is this idea at least we had some certainty all the | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
nods and winks about being in or out of the single market were over. | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
Theresa May made it clear Britain was coming out of the European | :02:44. | :02:49. | |
Union, but today, a bit of the hand over, the day after. We have had | :02:50. | :02:56. | |
news today from banks here, HSBC based in London and the Swiss bank | :02:57. | :03:00. | |
UBS they will be moving jobs or are looking at moving them from London, | :03:01. | :03:04. | |
on to the European continent, because Britain would be out of the | :03:05. | :03:07. | |
single market and that would mean that some of their service, they | :03:08. | :03:12. | |
provide from London, would have to be provided from within the European | :03:13. | :03:17. | |
Union, and as you say, Kirstie, noises off from the Foreign | :03:18. | :03:22. | |
Secretary, some negative reactions from France, to the comments by | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
Boris Johnson and really a negative thought today, from Davos. Don't | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
forget here, most businesses supported Britain remaining in the | :03:32. | :03:34. | |
European Union. So it is a particular type of cohort you get in | :03:35. | :03:38. | |
Britain, which doesn't mean they speak for the whole of British | :03:39. | :03:43. | |
business. Earlier today I interviewed the head of the | :03:44. | :03:46. | |
international monetary fund, Christine Lagarde who has been | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
negative about Brexit in the past, and I started by asking her if the | :03:52. | :03:58. | |
yuck leaving the single market -- UK leaving the single market would be | :03:59. | :04:00. | |
You have to look at all the parameters. | :04:01. | :04:03. | |
You have to look at the monetary policy, the exchange rate, | :04:04. | :04:05. | |
You have to look at the engines for growth, whether that very | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
solid UK consumption which has held the economy together, | :04:11. | :04:12. | |
and better than we had thought, will last. | :04:13. | :04:19. | |
Whether investment, both domestic and from the rest | :04:20. | :04:21. | |
of the world, will persist, or whether there will be | :04:22. | :04:23. | |
a significant reduction, and under what terms the exports | :04:24. | :04:25. | |
will eventually take place between the UK | :04:26. | :04:27. | |
What I know for sure is that there's a lot of work to be done | :04:28. | :04:32. | |
in the coming weeks, months and possibly years. | :04:33. | :04:38. | |
Risks to economic growth, then, for Britain and | :04:39. | :04:40. | |
for the European Union through this process? | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
Uncertainty is always a risk, and we know where | :04:45. | :04:46. | |
As you pointed out, the UK is still in the European Union, | :04:47. | :04:50. | |
and trade and movement of capitals and operations of banks | :04:51. | :04:53. | |
are still being conducted under the same pattern | :04:54. | :04:55. | |
What it is two years after the trigger has been pulled - | :04:56. | :04:59. | |
Before the referendum, the IMF was very clear | :05:00. | :05:08. | |
that the results of a Brexit vote, you said yourself, would go | :05:09. | :05:11. | |
The UK economy has defied expectations, | :05:12. | :05:14. | |
Were you wrong when you said that before the referendum? | :05:15. | :05:27. | |
I think what has been extraordinary is firstly the action | :05:28. | :05:29. | |
of the Bank of England, which has sort of instantly taken | :05:30. | :05:32. | |
hold of the situation, decided remedies, | :05:33. | :05:33. | |
and supported the economy in a very, very vigorous and efficient way. | :05:34. | :05:36. | |
What has also been quite remarkable is the behaviour | :05:37. | :05:39. | |
The way in which, with confidence, they've continued to consume | :05:40. | :05:50. | |
Now, we are still of the view that, particularly on the investment | :05:51. | :05:54. | |
front, and on the export or trade front, there is still yet to come. | :05:55. | :05:57. | |
And by that I mean, once uncertainty clears, and if people feel | :05:58. | :06:00. | |
that their ability to set up shop in the UK and operate throughout | :06:01. | :06:03. | |
the geographical area that is the European Union | :06:04. | :06:05. | |
is not working as well as it did, their investment | :06:06. | :06:08. | |
In the same vein, if exports are subject to significant tariffs, | :06:09. | :06:38. | |
restrictions and so on, the ability of the UK | :06:39. | :06:40. | |
to activate that trade engine is going to be reduced. | :06:41. | :06:43. | |
So while we have upgraded our forecast for 2017, | :06:44. | :06:44. | |
We are still of the view that it will not be positive | :06:45. | :06:55. | |
Can I just put a quote to you by the Maltese Prime Minister, | :06:56. | :07:02. | |
Joseph Muscat, who said that any UK-EU deal necessarily needs to be | :07:03. | :07:05. | |
inferior to membership of the European Union. | :07:06. | :07:07. | |
You know, when you belong to a club, whatever that is, | :07:08. | :07:14. | |
either sports or intellectual, whatever, the members of the club | :07:15. | :07:17. | |
have a degree of affinity, and particular terms | :07:18. | :07:19. | |
Somebody outside the club, sports or intellectual or whatever, | :07:20. | :07:27. | |
have a different access, and I think he's referring to that. | :07:28. | :07:32. | |
So it would be a less good deal for Britain? | :07:33. | :07:35. | |
It would certainly be different, and if being part of a club | :07:36. | :07:38. | |
is optimising and leveraging your membership, | :07:39. | :07:39. | |
We're here at Davos, a big debate that you've been very | :07:40. | :07:50. | |
closely involved in for many years about equality, about elite, | :07:51. | :07:52. | |
about the way the world operates and economies operate, | :07:53. | :07:56. | |
does it give you a sense that it's all a little bit ridiculous? | :07:57. | :07:59. | |
That we are speaking here in this resort, | :08:00. | :08:01. | |
where you can look out there at business people | :08:02. | :08:03. | |
This is just totally out of touch, is it not, with the real world? | :08:04. | :08:15. | |
Everyone is talking here about inequality, but actually, | :08:16. | :08:17. | |
it's just completely out of touch, and it's slightly ridiculous. | :08:18. | :08:19. | |
The world looks at this and thinks, you just don't get it. | :08:20. | :08:22. | |
I think it was your former Prime Minister, Winston Churchill, | :08:23. | :08:25. | |
who said that it is better to chat-chat than to war-war, | :08:26. | :08:28. | |
and whether you talk economics or whether you talk military, | :08:29. | :08:30. | |
people have a tendency to confront, to have adversarial debates, | :08:31. | :08:33. | |
and if they are here to talk, to have a dialogue, | :08:34. | :08:38. | |
to confront their views to other people's views, | :08:39. | :08:44. | |
who don't necessarily look like them. | :08:45. | :08:45. | |
You have a lot of NGOs present here, you have a lot of young leaders, | :08:46. | :08:48. | |
a lot of global shapers, who are not the ones that | :08:49. | :08:51. | |
you've just portrayed, and there is huge value in that. | :08:52. | :08:53. | |
So, easy to criticise, and value to be had from people | :08:54. | :08:56. | |
actually confronting their views and trying to make sense | :08:57. | :08:58. | |
of the negative and positive narratives | :08:59. | :09:00. | |
Our Prime Minister, Theresa May, has criticised what she calls | :09:01. | :09:07. | |
Do you think of yourself as a citizen of nowhere? | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
You know, what defines your citizenship is your language, | :09:13. | :09:20. | |
your culture, your background, your education, your family roots, | :09:21. | :09:22. | |
the smell of the trees in the morning. | :09:23. | :09:25. | |
But can you see the critics might say, for someone like you, the head | :09:26. | :09:39. | |
of the International Monetary Fund, you live a different life, | :09:40. | :09:42. | |
I have to care for far more people than my community, | :09:43. | :09:50. | |
and what I'm trying to do is to help the entire community, | :09:51. | :09:53. | |
Some of them have rock bottom GDP per capita. | :09:54. | :10:04. | |
Others are 50 times better off, but we have to care for all of them, | :10:05. | :10:07. | |
because our mission is stability, and without stability, | :10:08. | :10:09. | |
whether it's in defence terms or economic terms, | :10:10. | :10:11. | |
But what if all the diplomacy and negotiating skills the UK can | :10:12. | :10:20. | |
muster don't get us a trade deal with the EU, and we have | :10:21. | :10:23. | |
to fall back on membership of the World Trade organisation? | :10:24. | :10:25. | |
In a moment, I'll be talking to Pascal Lamy, | :10:26. | :10:28. | |
But first here's our policy editor Chris Cook. | :10:29. | :10:38. | |
This week there has been renewed talk of the prospect that Britain | :10:39. | :10:44. | |
will end up relying on its membership of the World Trade | :10:45. | :10:47. | |
Organisation and no other special deals as the basis of its trading | :10:48. | :10:51. | |
relationships with the world. Theresa May's speech yesterday | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
contained one very big strategic decision, she wants a comprehensive | :10:56. | :11:01. | |
free trade deal between the EU and the UK unlike anything like anyone | :11:02. | :11:05. | |
else has. She don't want a an off the shelf model. That means that | :11:06. | :11:09. | |
puts more pressure on that two-year negotiation process, it is more | :11:10. | :11:13. | |
likely we won't reach a deal, or in her term, we will take no deal | :11:14. | :11:19. | |
rather than a bad deal. And no deal means operating on WTO terms. | :11:20. | :11:23. | |
That is usually presented pretty bleakly. The WTO would for example | :11:24. | :11:32. | |
force the EU to place 4% tariffs on British car importser customs checks | :11:33. | :11:38. | |
on sales to the EU and difficulty for British far many companies | :11:39. | :11:41. | |
selling drusing into Europe. Why? To understand it may help to know where | :11:42. | :11:45. | |
the WTO came from. It was a body that was only set up in the 1990s, | :11:46. | :11:51. | |
but, its roots are in talks that took place in the 1940s. And those | :11:52. | :11:56. | |
talks were themselves aimed at preventing repetition of problems | :11:57. | :12:05. | |
that occurred in the 1930s. Before the Second World War, there | :12:06. | :12:10. | |
was a trade war, in 1930 the US passed the tariffs named after the | :12:11. | :12:15. | |
legislators who proposed them and other countries replied in kind. The | :12:16. | :12:21. | |
WTO's predecessor emerged from talks aiming to stop that from happening | :12:22. | :12:26. | |
again. Why then, would a body whose founding purpose is to reduce | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
tariffs force the EU to raise them against the UK? The EU is a member | :12:31. | :12:35. | |
of the deal and it has no real special deal with the UK at the | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
moment. Then what the WTO will force the EU to do is treat the UK like it | :12:40. | :12:45. | |
treats any trade partner hand would mean increasing tariffs to the UK. | :12:46. | :12:52. | |
The idea is to stop tit-for-tat 1930s style trade war, unless we cut | :12:53. | :12:57. | |
a proper deal, the EU has to treat us like stranger, and so will places | :12:58. | :13:02. | |
like South Korea, countries with whom we had trade o deals by via EU | :13:03. | :13:09. | |
membership. . That might seem odd but it has worked. Average tariffs | :13:10. | :13:14. | |
round the world from falling from 22% in 1937 to 5% now. The problem | :13:15. | :13:20. | |
is, these days, modern trade barriers are less likely to be | :13:21. | :13:23. | |
tariff, it just isn't the '30s any more. The modern WTO took its | :13:24. | :13:32. | |
current shape at talks in 1944 in Marrakech but while its achieved in | :13:33. | :13:36. | |
reducing tariffs is important and helpful, it hasn't been so good as | :13:37. | :13:40. | |
preventing other sorts of rules and regulations from getting in the way | :13:41. | :13:46. | |
of trade. These so-called non-tariff and technical barriers are much more | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
important than tariffs In we went the rules there is no provision for | :13:51. | :13:56. | |
cooperation between regulatory agencies which is important, if you | :13:57. | :14:01. | |
look at the pharmaceutical sec store where we are continually producing | :14:02. | :14:05. | |
new drugs you need to make sure they are being accepted and approved by | :14:06. | :14:08. | |
agencies, particularly at the EU level to be able to put on the | :14:09. | :14:12. | |
market. The WTO in short isn't good at | :14:13. | :14:17. | |
reducing the admin hassle of selling is across the border or stopping | :14:18. | :14:21. | |
local laws or approval processes that might hobble foreign companies. | :14:22. | :14:25. | |
That is why countries strike free trade agreements. | :14:26. | :14:28. | |
Pascal Lamy is a former EU trade commissioner, | :14:29. | :14:30. | |
and was director-general of the World Trade Organisation. | :14:31. | :14:36. | |
He joins us now from Davos. Good evening. We will come on to talk | :14:37. | :14:46. | |
about the WTO possibilities in a moment, but first, in July last | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
chair, as far as Brexit negotiations were concerned, you said it would be | :14:52. | :14:56. | |
complex and nasty. Do you still hold that view? Yes. It's going to be | :14:57. | :15:07. | |
complex, bumpy and nasty, like any trade negotiation. We know that by | :15:08. | :15:12. | |
experience, unless we invent the first ever trade negotiation in | :15:13. | :15:17. | |
history which would be a love affair. I don't really believe it | :15:18. | :15:24. | |
can happen. Except Theresa May is determined to invent something. She | :15:25. | :15:28. | |
doesn't want an off-the-shelf deal like Norway. She wants a bold and | :15:29. | :15:32. | |
ambitious free trade agreement with the EU. How would that work? I think | :15:33. | :15:39. | |
that's what we have to do now, now that the UK has decided to leave the | :15:40. | :15:47. | |
internal market, as you just said in your excellent summary. The UK will | :15:48. | :15:53. | |
be a third country, like Mexico, Korea or Japan. So UK has to | :15:54. | :15:59. | |
negotiate the terms of access to the EU market, and the EU has to | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
negotiate the terms of access to the UK market. Its seven for the size of | :16:04. | :16:12. | |
the EU market to one, which is the size of the UK market. It's going to | :16:13. | :16:20. | |
be complex, long, it's probably a good thing, a better thing than | :16:21. | :16:27. | |
going to the WTO tariffs, but it will take time, and inevitably, | :16:28. | :16:32. | |
trade will be less open than when the UK was a member of the internal | :16:33. | :16:38. | |
market. It may have to go back to the WTO. What Christine Lagarde was | :16:39. | :16:43. | |
saying was, if you are outside the club, you are not going to get as | :16:44. | :16:47. | |
good a deal as if you were inside the club. No one wants to give | :16:48. | :16:52. | |
Britain such a good deal. I wonder what you think about the idea of | :16:53. | :16:58. | |
some companies like UBS shifting to Paris and beyond. Certain different | :16:59. | :17:04. | |
areas, such as financial services and the car industry, might strike | :17:05. | :17:09. | |
separate deals within the EU. What do you think of that? There will be | :17:10. | :17:15. | |
no separate deal. It is a single undertaking. You have to to agree on | :17:16. | :17:20. | |
everything before you agree on anything. There's no deal that would | :17:21. | :17:26. | |
be a sector deal. This would be toughly negotiated on both sides. As | :17:27. | :17:33. | |
you just said in your programme, the main difficulty for the British | :17:34. | :17:37. | |
exporter to the EU continent, whether goods or services, like | :17:38. | :17:42. | |
financial services or accounting, will be that the UK will have to | :17:43. | :17:48. | |
match EU regulations and standards, without having any say on the | :17:49. | :17:52. | |
regulations and standards. That's a big problem for the future. On the | :17:53. | :17:58. | |
question of how all this operates, because we have to true God Article | :17:59. | :18:05. | |
50 and negotiate their way out. -- trigger article 50. And then, the | :18:06. | :18:10. | |
idea would be that simultaneously you do your fresh deal. Is that | :18:11. | :18:20. | |
possible? Know. I don't think it's doable simultaneously. It can start | :18:21. | :18:25. | |
simultaneously, but any trade negotiation of this kind is very | :18:26. | :18:31. | |
complex and will take a long time. I am convinced this is not doable in | :18:32. | :18:38. | |
two years. And yet David Davis, our chief negotiator, says it will be | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
done by the end of 2018. Do you think, knowing the complexity of all | :18:44. | :18:51. | |
this, that the UK has a sufficiently high octane negotiating team? Very | :18:52. | :19:01. | |
difficult to say. What I know is that, like any other EU member, the | :19:02. | :19:08. | |
UK disbanded its trade expertise when it was transferred to the | :19:09. | :19:13. | |
European Union, so they have to reconstitute a whole body of trade | :19:14. | :19:19. | |
experts and trade negotiators. This will inevitably take time, and by | :19:20. | :19:24. | |
the way, be pretty costly. At least, that's what I'm told by my friends | :19:25. | :19:29. | |
in the consulting and the legal business. So how long do you think | :19:30. | :19:36. | |
it would take to strike a new deal with the EU? I don't know of any | :19:37. | :19:43. | |
trade negotiation that lasted less than five to seven years, which | :19:44. | :19:49. | |
means that there will need to be a sort of interim arrangement which | :19:50. | :19:55. | |
will have to be negotiated before we move to the new trade regime. So | :19:56. | :20:02. | |
Theresa May is a saying, I don't want a bad deal. What if there is no | :20:03. | :20:08. | |
deal, and then we fall back on WTO rules? With this tariff of, for | :20:09. | :20:18. | |
example, 10% on car imports to the EU, will it apply to Britain | :20:19. | :20:25. | |
automatically? That's a possibility if there is no deal, as you rightly | :20:26. | :20:33. | |
say. You go back to the WTO rules, but those rules are worse for the | :20:34. | :20:39. | |
UK, and for the EU into the UK, than a good deal. So that's ad? This | :20:40. | :20:50. | |
notion that no deal rather than a bad deal is something all trade | :20:51. | :20:53. | |
negotiators have been saying all the time. If you have an option between | :20:54. | :21:08. | |
going back to the WTO rules, or the ideal, which is full of pain, you | :21:09. | :21:12. | |
will choose the full of pain. You know Boris Johnson. Do you think you | :21:13. | :21:21. | |
should be one of the lead people in negotiations, given what he said | :21:22. | :21:24. | |
today that so offended so many French? Look, what Boris Johnson | :21:25. | :21:33. | |
said today leads me to wonder whether it's Donald Johnson or Boris | :21:34. | :21:40. | |
Trump! It is a clear embarrassment for all of these high-flying | :21:41. | :21:45. | |
diplomats in the Foreign Office, and they deserve all of our compassion. | :21:46. | :21:50. | |
Thank you very much indeed, Pascal Lambie. | :21:51. | :21:53. | |
Is the military about to be deployed to enforce the election | :21:54. | :21:56. | |
Tonight, the Nigerian Air Force and Senegalese troops are on standby | :21:57. | :22:00. | |
because of the outgoing president Yahya Jammeh's refusal to relinquish | :22:01. | :22:02. | |
Today, the UN said at least 26,000 people, mainly women and children, | :22:03. | :22:07. | |
have fled the country across the border into Senegal. | :22:08. | :22:13. | |
The Gambia, a small state in west Africa sandwiched by Senegal, | :22:14. | :22:16. | |
normally calls itself the "Smiling Coast" - | :22:17. | :22:19. | |
its sunny beaches making it a popular tourist destination. | :22:20. | :22:22. | |
But the fear of violence and military strikes is now hanging | :22:23. | :22:26. | |
As locals are fleeing over the border, China has | :22:27. | :22:31. | |
evacuated its citizens, and tourists are being | :22:32. | :22:33. | |
It's basically that we are going to evacuate everyone back home tonight. | :22:34. | :22:41. | |
President Yahya Jammeh seized power in 1994 at the age of 29. | :22:42. | :22:46. | |
He's survived several coup attempts to rule for the past 22 years. | :22:47. | :22:54. | |
Last December, he lost the presidential election | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
to a candidate backed by a strong opposition coalition. | :22:59. | :23:00. | |
Despite initially conceding the result and appearing to hand | :23:01. | :23:04. | |
We hereby declare a state of public emergency, | :23:05. | :23:12. | |
throughout the Islamic Republic of the Gambia. | :23:13. | :23:16. | |
The President-Elect, Adama Barrow, is due to be sworn in tomorrow. | :23:17. | :23:23. | |
The regional bloc of West African States, Ecowas, | :23:24. | :23:27. | |
has repeatedly warned it would launch military action | :23:28. | :23:29. | |
if Jammeh refuses to step down before the ceremony. | :23:30. | :23:34. | |
Jammeh once said he would rule for a billion years if Allah willed it. | :23:35. | :23:38. | |
We are about to see if his faith in himself will be trumped | :23:39. | :23:41. | |
Steve Cockburn is from Amnesty International and is in Senegal. | :23:42. | :23:51. | |
Today is the deadline given by the international community | :23:52. | :23:57. | |
for President Jammeh to step down from power and pass | :23:58. | :24:00. | |
So far he has refused and mediation efforts have failed. | :24:01. | :24:03. | |
This evening, the President of Mauritania has flown | :24:04. | :24:05. | |
into the country as a last ditch effort to try and find a peaceful | :24:06. | :24:09. | |
solution to the crisis, and at the same time forces | :24:10. | :24:12. | |
led by Senegal and Nigeria have been preparing to launch a military | :24:13. | :24:17. | |
intervention in the country if that peaceful process doesn't succeed. | :24:18. | :24:26. | |
He's -- she's an interventional development writer based in the UK. | :24:27. | :24:43. | |
-- International. Are your family all OK? Yes, they are all treating | :24:44. | :24:51. | |
the crisis from different points of view. How are they treating it? What | :24:52. | :24:59. | |
are they doing? Today, my mother decided she needs to stock up on | :25:00. | :25:04. | |
rice and gas. They've been to work and come home early, and got various | :25:05. | :25:10. | |
groceries ready to sit it out. Are they fearful? I would say they are | :25:11. | :25:16. | |
uncomfortable, but not fearful. We've been through this before. It's | :25:17. | :25:25. | |
tense. It's not entirely in 81? Yes. It's not entirely clear what will | :25:26. | :25:31. | |
happen, but they have confidence that the Senegalese will come in and | :25:32. | :25:37. | |
sort it out. You've been living with this president for a very long time. | :25:38. | :25:44. | |
What has it been like? It's an odd mix, because basically, loads of | :25:45. | :25:48. | |
things have been happening under the radar that have been terrible, like | :25:49. | :25:52. | |
people who have had plastic melted on their genitals. You've heard of | :25:53. | :25:57. | |
people disappearing, and journalists just not turning up for work the | :25:58. | :26:02. | |
next day. So there's all this against a backdrop of a president | :26:03. | :26:10. | |
who has also done things like spread water, so there's been renewed wells | :26:11. | :26:12. | |
for portable water across the country. So this mix of absolute | :26:13. | :26:16. | |
control for doing things for development, but not enough to make | :26:17. | :26:24. | |
people become independent of view. He is clearly digging his heels in. | :26:25. | :26:30. | |
What will shift him? The Nigerians or the Sangha Lee's? Loads of things | :26:31. | :26:35. | |
are happening. His ministers are deserting him, so his support is | :26:36. | :26:39. | |
draining away. What will shift him now is military force. We heard this | :26:40. | :26:45. | |
morning that the top brass in the army were supporting him, but you | :26:46. | :26:49. | |
think they are not? It's not entirely true. This is according to | :26:50. | :26:56. | |
my family, but there's basically two factions in the Army. There's the | :26:57. | :27:04. | |
soldiers, who rejoiced to the election, and there's some who are | :27:05. | :27:08. | |
staying loyal. There are some who are ditching their uniform in the | :27:09. | :27:14. | |
streets. The Gambia is a small place, so everybody is related to | :27:15. | :27:19. | |
everybody else. It comes through to you that you have a personal choice, | :27:20. | :27:23. | |
and some of the soldiers are making the choice that they would rather | :27:24. | :27:29. | |
not continue to support him. Ecowas have acted very quickly. Why is it | :27:30. | :27:34. | |
so critical for them to get a hold in the Gambia? The Gambia is a test | :27:35. | :27:47. | |
case. We have had a coups and countercoups in the West Africa for | :27:48. | :27:50. | |
a long time. Since the war in Cote d'Ivoire, we have had elections in | :27:51. | :27:55. | |
Nigeria, and Ghana, successful and peaceful elections and changes of | :27:56. | :28:01. | |
power. In the Gambia, there's not been one single successful peaceful | :28:02. | :28:04. | |
change of power since I was born, so it's time to make that happen. Thank | :28:05. | :28:07. | |
you very much indeed. President Obama gave his final press | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
conference from The White House this evening, and ranged over subjects | :28:12. | :28:14. | |
from Chelsea Manning to the Israeli Palestinian conflict, | :28:15. | :28:16. | |
warning his successor over any Emily is in Washington, | :28:17. | :28:19. | |
watching the final chapter of the Obama Presidency, | :28:20. | :28:22. | |
and preparing to report on the next. In his last press conference, | :28:23. | :28:33. | |
President Obama conceded that Donald Trump was unlikely to take his | :28:34. | :28:40. | |
advice, given that he had won his election on an anti-Obama platform, | :28:41. | :28:44. | |
but he warned the new, that perhaps he would be hit by the complexities | :28:45. | :28:49. | |
of the role once in office, and his thinking might shift on issues like | :28:50. | :28:53. | |
health care and jobs. He described phone calls between the two men as | :28:54. | :28:58. | |
constructive and lengthy, and said that the best advice he could give | :28:59. | :29:02. | |
was to try and rely on those around him. He said it was not a job for | :29:03. | :29:11. | |
one man alone. Perhaps the most memorable moment was his rebuff to | :29:12. | :29:13. | |
Trump. Trump has already hinted that he might move the press corps | :29:14. | :29:20. | |
outside the White House, and he insisted that the reporters covering | :29:21. | :29:24. | |
his administration were an essential facet of a functioning democracy. | :29:25. | :29:25. | |
Have a listen. You're not supposed | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
to be sycophants, you're You're supposed to ask | :29:30. | :29:31. | |
me tough questions. You're not supposed to be | :29:32. | :29:33. | |
complimentary, but you're supposed to cast a critical eye on folks | :29:34. | :29:36. | |
who hold enormous power, and make sure that we are accountable | :29:37. | :29:39. | |
to the people who sent us here, And you have done it | :29:40. | :29:42. | |
for the most part, in ways that I could appreciate for fairness, | :29:43. | :29:48. | |
even if I didn't always agree It will be understood as a rebuke to | :29:49. | :30:03. | |
Trump who has picked those very public, personal fights with | :30:04. | :30:08. | |
individual reporters and their news organisations, he Haslam Bassited in | :30:09. | :30:15. | |
the past, for fake new, a term has almost weaponised for anything he | :30:16. | :30:17. | |
doesn't like very much. This was the last time that Obama will speak in | :30:18. | :30:23. | |
public as President. He leaves office with near record approval | :30:24. | :30:27. | |
ratings and a flurry of last minute activity which might suggest an | :30:28. | :30:31. | |
awareness of the many things he still leaves undone, so what will | :30:32. | :30:35. | |
his legacy be like? We look back at the last eight years. | :30:36. | :30:46. | |
We will go out and remake America and then we will change the world. | :30:47. | :30:57. | |
When you study anyone and understand why they do it, you become more | :30:58. | :31:02. | |
sympathetic, when you study Obama you try not to -- it is hard not to | :31:03. | :31:12. | |
become a fan. The description he left from behind | :31:13. | :31:17. | |
was true, you can't say that he didn't do anything, they certainly | :31:18. | :31:21. | |
did a lot, but the actions they took, it wasn't enough to make a | :31:22. | :31:22. | |
difference. Think we got more change than a lot | :31:23. | :31:40. | |
of people thought possible. There were 28 million more people insured | :31:41. | :31:44. | |
in this Cundy than there were in 2008. We are fighting to keep that | :31:45. | :31:48. | |
right now, today as I talk to you, trying to make sure that people can | :31:49. | :31:53. | |
keep their health care, there has been change in that, in marriage | :31:54. | :31:57. | |
equality, there has been change all over this country when we think how | :31:58. | :32:01. | |
marginalised people have been. There is more change that needs to happen. | :32:02. | :32:14. | |
You cannot underestimate how bad the cards he inherited in terms of the | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
economy, and nobody gets credit. No politician in history has got credit | :32:21. | :32:27. | |
for averting a disaster, but, Obama the technocrat, the hard nosed | :32:28. | :32:32. | |
technocrat, who passed the largest stimulus in US history. People talk | :32:33. | :32:37. | |
about him unwilling to bend, but he did get Republicans to vote for that | :32:38. | :32:42. | |
which is why it passed which is why there wasn't a second great | :32:43. | :32:46. | |
depression. And his first two years in office he passed more legislation | :32:47. | :32:51. | |
and did more major things really than any other progressive President | :32:52. | :32:56. | |
has done, in living memory, and part of the problem that that caused was | :32:57. | :33:00. | |
that there was a counter attack. We're not going to give up. We are | :33:01. | :33:05. | |
going to fight. We are going to get rid of him in 2012. | :33:06. | :33:18. | |
But that coalition of lejs Kated, rural people who are kind of losers | :33:19. | :33:25. | |
in the globalisation game, is exactly the same coalition that put | :33:26. | :33:28. | |
Donald Trump into the White House. It is just a straight line, you can | :33:29. | :33:32. | |
see it. The Democratic Party at the grass | :33:33. | :33:36. | |
roots has really been decimated under Obama, they have lost most of | :33:37. | :33:42. | |
state house, the legislature, the party under Obama in some sense has | :33:43. | :33:46. | |
hollowed out and it is going to be very hard for them to come back from | :33:47. | :33:52. | |
that. On January 20th, I will become the first President of the United | :33:53. | :33:56. | |
States to serve two full terms during a time of war. I wouldn't | :33:57. | :34:02. | |
give him a great score on foreign policy, he has two successes, Cuba | :34:03. | :34:07. | |
and Iran, they will survive. The Trump presidency, but the rest, I, | :34:08. | :34:13. | |
you know I worked on a lot of other issue, on Isil. Syria, and Ukraine, | :34:14. | :34:18. | |
and he wasn't as strong as he could have been. | :34:19. | :34:30. | |
I would give Obama poor marks on Syria, I worked on Syria in the | :34:31. | :34:36. | |
State Department for several years and I think there were several | :34:37. | :34:41. | |
points when he had Obama done much more than he did, things really | :34:42. | :34:46. | |
could have changed. He had legitimate reasons for avoiding | :34:47. | :34:50. | |
getting more involved but unfortunately you ignore unpleasant | :34:51. | :34:53. | |
parts of the world as your peril. You can't contain a conflict like | :34:54. | :34:58. | |
Syria. We have Isil as a result of Syria and Isil by the way not just | :34:59. | :35:02. | |
in that region but we have seen attacks in many other country, in | :35:03. | :35:05. | |
Europe as well. We had the migration crisis. We went into rack, and it | :35:06. | :35:13. | |
didn't work. We tried persuasion, in Egypt and it didn't work, we tried | :35:14. | :35:18. | |
limited intervention in Libya and it didn't work, we didn't intervene in | :35:19. | :35:23. | |
Syria and it didn't work. I mean, really, the person who said the | :35:24. | :35:26. | |
thing you have to be is lucky, is probably got the answer. | :35:27. | :35:38. | |
If we could recognise ourselves in one another. Bring everybody | :35:39. | :35:46. | |
together. Democrat, Republican, ints, Latino Asian and native | :35:47. | :35:49. | |
American. Black and white. Gay and straight. Disabled and not. The | :35:50. | :35:57. | |
first time I went into the White House, when Barack Obama lived | :35:58. | :36:01. | |
there, that was the first thing that came to mind, my ancestors, built | :36:02. | :36:05. | |
that house, that house that for so long we had to enter the back door | :36:06. | :36:10. | |
of for so long we were not allowed in the dining rooms of, let alone in | :36:11. | :36:15. | |
the Oval office, so for a lot of us having a black man in the White | :36:16. | :36:27. | |
House represented hope. That is not a great legacy on race | :36:28. | :36:32. | |
but that is not Obama's legacy, that is an American legacy on race, if | :36:33. | :36:36. | |
people are tired about hearing racism I guarantee we are far more | :36:37. | :36:40. | |
tired of dealing with it. At the end of the day people confuse | :36:41. | :36:43. | |
identifying racism with actual racism. That doesn't mean race | :36:44. | :36:48. | |
relations have got worse it means people have become more aware. | :36:49. | :37:00. | |
I am asking you to believe, not in my ability to bring about change but | :37:01. | :37:08. | |
in yours. Yes, we can. Yes, we did. Yes we can. Thank you, God bless | :37:09. | :37:13. | |
you. May God continue to bless the United | :37:14. | :37:15. | |
May God continue to bless the United States. | :37:16. | :37:27. | |
Ahead of the inauguration, feelings about Donald Trump are running high, | :37:28. | :37:30. | |
and tonight we bring you the second of our two polarised | :37:31. | :37:32. | |
"animated" perspectives on the incoming President. | :37:33. | :37:34. | |
Last night, Roger Kimball, editor of the US literary | :37:35. | :37:37. | |
magazine, The New Criterion, exhorted Trump to bring it on. | :37:38. | :37:39. | |
Tonight, the former editor of the New Republic, | :37:40. | :37:41. | |
the British American author and blogger Andrew Sullivan, who has | :37:42. | :37:44. | |
As Donald Trump began his march through American democracy | :37:45. | :37:56. | |
toward the White House earlier this year, my mind kept drifting | :37:57. | :37:59. | |
to a passage I read years before as a graduate student, | :38:00. | :38:01. | |
from the first book on politics ever written. | :38:02. | :38:03. | |
The passage is from the dialogue where Socrates and his friends | :38:04. | :38:12. | |
are talking about the nature of different political systems. | :38:13. | :38:14. | |
How they change over time, and how one can slowly | :38:15. | :38:16. | |
Socrates says something pretty shocking - tyranny is probably | :38:17. | :38:23. | |
established out of no other regime than democracy. | :38:24. | :38:32. | |
Democracy was defined as a political system which maximises two things - | :38:33. | :38:34. | |
Everyone is equal, and everyone can do whatever he or she likes. | :38:35. | :38:38. | |
And the longer a democracy lasts, Socrates says, the more | :38:39. | :38:41. | |
Its freedoms multiply until it becomes a many coloured cloak, | :38:42. | :38:57. | |
Man are interchangeable with women, and all their natural | :38:58. | :39:00. | |
Foreigners can come and work just like citizens, children | :39:01. | :39:11. | |
Teachers are afraid of their students, the rich | :39:12. | :39:14. | |
Soon, every kind of inequality is despised. | :39:15. | :39:22. | |
The wealthy are particularly loathed. | :39:23. | :39:23. | |
And elites in general are treated as suspect, | :39:24. | :39:25. | |
perpetuating inequality and representing injustice. | :39:26. | :39:35. | |
It's when a democracy is evolved into this, Plato argues, | :39:36. | :39:37. | |
that a would-be tyrant will often seize his moment. | :39:38. | :39:41. | |
He is usually of the elite, but is in tune with the times, | :39:42. | :39:45. | |
given over to random pleasures and whims, feasting on food, | :39:46. | :39:47. | |
He makes his move by taking over a particularly obedient mob | :39:48. | :39:55. | |
and attacking his wealthy peers as corrupt. | :39:56. | :40:04. | |
He is a traitor to his class, and soon his elite enemies find | :40:05. | :40:07. | |
a way to appease him or are forced to flee. | :40:08. | :40:09. | |
Eventually, he stands alone, offering the addled, | :40:10. | :40:11. | |
distracted and self-indulgent citizens a kind of relief | :40:12. | :40:13. | |
from democracy's endless choices and insecurities. | :40:14. | :40:19. | |
Too much freedom seems to change into nothing but too much slavery. | :40:20. | :40:26. | |
And offers himself as the personified answer to all problems. | :40:27. | :40:28. | |
To replace the elites and rule along on behalf of the masses. | :40:29. | :40:31. | |
And as the people thrill to him, as a kind of solution, | :40:32. | :40:34. | |
a democracy willingly impetuosly repeals itself. | :40:35. | :40:48. | |
But the music world is today mourning the death of the Nigerian | :40:49. | :40:56. | |
If you've never heard of him, that's because he never | :40:57. | :41:00. | |
performed on screen, and he quit the music business years | :41:01. | :41:03. | |
before he even found fame to become a born again Christian, | :41:04. | :41:05. | |
and pretty much ignored his subsequent feting by the legion | :41:06. | :41:08. | |
of western musicians who he profoundly influenced. | :41:09. | :41:12. | |
So we'll leave you instead with Talking Head's David Byrne | :41:13. | :41:14. | |
and the Atomic Bomb band, performing Onyeabor's song | :41:15. | :41:16. | |
Fantastic Man on the Jimmy Fallon Show in 2015. | :41:17. | :41:18. | |
# I want you try to tell me how you feel about me, girl | :41:19. | :41:27. | |
# Tell me, tell me, tell me, tell me, tell me | :41:28. | :41:37. | |
Good evening. With high pressure sitting across the country any | :41:38. | :42:06. | |
changes in the weather for the next few days will be slow. So we start | :42:07. | :42:11. | |
with a frost again, in clearer areas than the south. Some fog and frost | :42:12. | :42:15. | |
and fog where we see the breaks further north. But, the breaks will | :42:16. | :42:21. | |
be limited we think across Northern Ireland and Scotland, mostly dry, | :42:22. | :42:25. | |
east of the Grampians that is the best chance of drier, brighter | :42:26. | :42:31. | |
weather or sunshine once the fog clears, perhaps fog. There could be | :42:32. | :42:36. | |
low level fog as you can see in Lincolnshire, East Anglia and the | :42:37. | :42:39. | |
Midland. There is no strength in the sunshine or in fact no wind as well, | :42:40. | :42:43. | |
to move it on. But in the south, after a hard frost, should be | :42:44. | :42:49. | |
sparkling sunshine again. But a nice day, we may see that extend into | :42:50. | :42:52. | |
parts of Wales as well, through the course of Thursday, that is in | :42:53. | :42:57. | |
contrast to Wednesday. But, as I say, there will be be a lot of | :42:58. | :43:01. | |
cloudy, but dry weather. Friday, perhaps a few more breaks in | :43:02. | :43:06. | |
the cloud, indicated in Inverness, temperatures not so high and as we | :43:07. | :43:08. | |
head further south | :43:09. | :43:10. |