02/02/2017 Newsnight


02/02/2017

The stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis. Is there method to Trump's foreign diplomacy, or madness? Plus the Brexit white paper and Viewsnight.


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Transcript


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We knew he'd annoyed the Chinese over Taiwan.

:00:07.:00:08.

And then the Australian prime minister, not

:00:09.:00:14.

Is there method in the President's apparent madness?

:00:15.:00:20.

He's famously a deal maker, and likes to get his way.

:00:21.:00:23.

But the President is not a happy deal taker.

:00:24.:00:26.

He's not keen on the commitments of his predecessors,

:00:27.:00:29.

particularly one to take refugees from Australia.

:00:30.:00:35.

When you sure about the tough phone calls I am having, don't worry about

:00:36.:00:43.

it. Just don't worry. They are tough, we have to be tough, it's

:00:44.:00:48.

time to be a little tough folks, we are taken advantage of by every

:00:49.:00:51.

nation in the world, virtually. It's not going to happen any more.

:00:52.:00:56.

We'll ask the President's recent adviser on climate

:00:57.:00:59.

Also tonight, our official policy on Brexit now runs to 75

:01:00.:01:04.

Britain wants to free itself from much of the EU Customs Union to

:01:05.:01:09.

allow it to negotiate new free trade deals across the globe.

:01:10.:01:12.

But it does want to hold on to one benefit,

:01:13.:01:14.

tariff-free trade with the rest of the EU.

:01:15.:01:19.

Italy's deputy foreign minister will tell us why

:01:20.:01:21.

And on Viewsnight, Pankaj Mishra explains why we live

:01:22.:01:24.

For the last two tumultuous centuries we've been designed to

:01:25.:01:40.

pursue ideals designed for the benefit of a homogenous few.

:01:41.:01:47.

Billions of people are now chasing these ideals with ever increasing

:01:48.:01:50.

frustration. Another day, one in

:01:51.:01:53.

which the unconventions of the new US diplomacy have

:01:54.:01:57.

been in evidence. Item one - the President seems

:01:58.:01:59.

to have had an argument with the Australian prime minister,

:02:00.:02:02.

and curtailed a phone Two - the National Security

:02:03.:02:04.

Advisor Michael Flynn has put Iran on notice,

:02:05.:02:07.

although no specification And three - it emerged that some

:02:08.:02:09.

days ago, Donald Trump had suggested that he might send US troops

:02:10.:02:15.

into Mexico, telling the Mexican President that he needed

:02:16.:02:17.

to deal with the "bad But at the same time, this evening

:02:18.:02:20.

in the UN, the Americans have strongly condemned

:02:21.:02:26.

the Russians' actions in Ukraine, and sounded very

:02:27.:02:29.

like they traditionally have. We do want to better our relations

:02:30.:02:45.

with Russia, however the dire situation in eastern Ukraine is one

:02:46.:02:49.

that demands clear and strong condemnation of Russian actions. The

:02:50.:02:53.

United States continues to condemn and call for an immediate end to the

:02:54.:02:58.

Russian occupation of Crimea. Crimea is a part of Ukraine. Our Crimea-

:02:59.:03:05.

related sanctions will stay in place until Russia returns control over

:03:06.:03:09.

the peninsula to Ukraine. There is a clear path to restoring peace in

:03:10.:03:15.

eastern Ukraine. A full and immediate implementation of the

:03:16.:03:18.

agreements which the United States continues to support. The UN

:03:19.:03:26.

ambassador to the United Nations, -- the US ambassador, sounding just as

:03:27.:03:27.

an ambassador traditionally does. Now, it's confusing -

:03:28.:03:31.

to Mr Trump's opponents, I suspect that for his supporters,

:03:32.:03:33.

there is craft in the chaos - the new President is unpredictable

:03:34.:03:37.

and going to have Here's our diplomatic

:03:38.:03:39.

editor, Mark Urban. The national prayer breakfast is a

:03:40.:03:49.

Washington institution. A chance for politicians, movers and Shakers to

:03:50.:03:54.

commune with the Almighty. A chance also for President Trump to exhort

:03:55.:03:58.

them to keep the faith. When you hear about the tough phone calls I'm

:03:59.:04:02.

having, don't worry about it. Just don't worry. They are tough, we have

:04:03.:04:07.

to be tough, it's time we have to be a little tough, folks, we are taken

:04:08.:04:12.

advantage of by every nation in the world, virtually. It is not going to

:04:13.:04:20.

happen any more. Tough calls. Like the one to Australia's Prime

:04:21.:04:24.

Minister at the weekend. They later tweet suggested the Australians

:04:25.:04:28.

needed to be pressured over a deal to resettle refugees. So is the

:04:29.:04:34.

Twitter bully pulpit part of irrational strategy? In the old days

:04:35.:04:38.

the old international regime was very careful about any tweet that

:04:39.:04:44.

would degenerate into tensions. Now the entire planet is on Twitter and

:04:45.:04:48.

Facebook and social media, I think it is a good thing for the president

:04:49.:04:53.

of the United States to also be on social media. But if this is the new

:04:54.:04:57.

liturgy of Washington what to make the sentence that could undermine

:04:58.:05:02.

the message? Yesterday at National Security adviser Michael Flynn gave

:05:03.:05:08.

around this warning. Trump has criticised the agreements reached

:05:09.:05:11.

between Iran and the Obama administration and the United

:05:12.:05:14.

Nations as being weak and ineffective. Instead of being

:05:15.:05:19.

thankful to the US, Iran is feeling emboldened. As of today we are

:05:20.:05:23.

officially putting Iran on notice, thank you. Yet Pentagon people

:05:24.:05:28.

undermined that almost as soon as it went out, saying there was no change

:05:29.:05:33.

to their posture with regard to Iran. It is very hard for outsiders

:05:34.:05:39.

to read. With respect to Iran or North Korea, these are countries

:05:40.:05:46.

where honour matters a lot. And humiliating the leadership of

:05:47.:05:49.

countries like this in order to show that you have won a better deal is

:05:50.:05:56.

also a very good way to escalate into quite a dangerous tensions.

:05:57.:06:01.

Another feature of the Trump approach seen with Pacific trade or

:06:02.:06:06.

the EU is to emphasise the bilateral state to state approach rather than

:06:07.:06:10.

dealing with them in a group in the hub of leveraging America's

:06:11.:06:15.

strength. He's not going to dismantle historic alliance is

:06:16.:06:20.

coming is trying to reform them, and to do so, his method is to sit down

:06:21.:06:24.

with each one of these countries that form these alliances, see what

:06:25.:06:29.

the bilateral situation is between the two countries is on a variety of

:06:30.:06:33.

levels and then talk about the forthcoming reform of these

:06:34.:06:38.

alliances. There's been a great deal of disquiet within the State

:06:39.:06:41.

Department and some people have leaked there as well. Today, Rex

:06:42.:06:47.

Tillerson taking up his position as Secretary of State put the emphasis

:06:48.:06:52.

on pulling together. Each of us is entitled to the expression of our

:06:53.:06:56.

political beliefs. But we cannot allow our personal convictions to

:06:57.:07:04.

impede our working as a team. Let's be honest with each other about the

:07:05.:07:09.

times we living as we focus our images on our departmental goals.

:07:10.:07:14.

Those in earnest supplication for a more doctrine from people like Rex

:07:15.:07:18.

Tillerson may be deluding themselves. In Midas we have a

:07:19.:07:25.

career military officer who's been trained up in the art of executing,

:07:26.:07:30.

right. Someone who has lived his life in the military is not a very

:07:31.:07:38.

familiar with how to counter orders coming down from above. We had

:07:39.:07:42.

tremendous success on the Apprentice. Contradicting any

:07:43.:07:53.

attempt to separate policy, Trump 's remarks. And they hired a big movie

:07:54.:07:58.

star, and to take my place and we know how that turned out. At the

:07:59.:08:02.

prayer breakfast this morning he took a swipe at Arnold

:08:03.:08:08.

Schwarzenegger and his ratings on On The Apprentice. From this

:08:09.:08:12.

administration we have already learned to expect the unexpected.

:08:13.:08:16.

Let's just pray for Arnold and those ratings.

:08:17.:08:18.

Well, the new diplomacy is unpredictable, but it is also

:08:19.:08:23.

very much about the US taking on global affairs,

:08:24.:08:25.

President Trump is not keen on the big international bodies

:08:26.:08:28.

The US prefers bilaterals to multilaterals now.

:08:29.:08:31.

One area where the existing global arrangements are being reviewed

:08:32.:08:33.

President Trump wants to exit the Paris Agreement.

:08:34.:08:37.

So who better to speak to about his approach

:08:38.:08:39.

to international affairs and climate change than Myron Ebell,

:08:40.:08:42.

who was in the transition team, in an environment role?

:08:43.:08:46.

Thank you for joining us. Good to talk to you. There is a huge weight

:08:47.:08:55.

in trying to understand the rules of the game under President Trump. In

:08:56.:09:01.

your view, what looks like chaos, is that strategic, planned, or just

:09:02.:09:06.

ordinary chaos? It seems to me that President Trump is trying to get an

:09:07.:09:11.

awful lot done very quickly, so I think the chaos is the result of

:09:12.:09:15.

that but I think he is moving rapidly on some major issues. What

:09:16.:09:21.

do you think of that line, we will talk about climate change but the

:09:22.:09:27.

line he used about "Every country in the world is taking advantage of the

:09:28.:09:32.

United States"? Do you agree? Clearly the US is one of the richest

:09:33.:09:36.

countries in the world so you might not think it was the most obvious

:09:37.:09:41.

feature. Do you accept that every country virtually is taking

:09:42.:09:46.

advantage of the US? I think President Trump is sometimes prone

:09:47.:09:49.

to speak broadly. We would have to go through each iteration of that

:09:50.:09:56.

although there have been long-term problems with Nato for example, most

:09:57.:10:02.

countries are not keeping their commitments for defence spending. So

:10:03.:10:07.

there are examples with the US is more than baring its own fair share,

:10:08.:10:14.

I suppose. -- where it is baring its own fair share. The multilateral,

:10:15.:10:18.

bilateral think he doesn't like multilateral deals, he is fine with

:10:19.:10:23.

bilateral deals, could you articulate for us what is wrong with

:10:24.:10:27.

multilateral and what is better about bilateral? I think we would

:10:28.:10:32.

have to again look at this on a case-by-case basis. I think the

:10:33.:10:36.

world trade organisation, the problem with it was that it hasn't

:10:37.:10:43.

been able to finish any of the big agreements on services for now well

:10:44.:10:48.

over a decade, more like 15 years. The multilateral process has sort of

:10:49.:10:57.

come to aid... It has frozen up. So maybe the bilateral deals will be

:10:58.:11:02.

more successful then. Let's move to another important multilateral area,

:11:03.:11:05.

climate change, international agreements. You are not a fan. You

:11:06.:11:12.

are in the transition team as the transitional head of the

:11:13.:11:16.

Environmental Protection Agency. Do you think President Trump will pull

:11:17.:11:20.

the United States at the Paris agreement and basically say, guys we

:11:21.:11:27.

are no longer in it? -- pull them out of the agreement? President

:11:28.:11:30.

Trump said in the campaign in several speeches, not in

:11:31.:11:33.

off-the-cuff remarks that he intended to withdraw the United

:11:34.:11:37.

States from the Paris agreement and D fund the programmes. The principal

:11:38.:11:47.

expenditure is the huge $100 billion a year green climate fund expected

:11:48.:11:52.

to go into effect in 2020. The share that the US places $3 billion. He's

:11:53.:11:56.

not alone in this. The Congress will never appropriate that money. So it

:11:57.:12:02.

seems that this is going to happen. Most of the rest of the world has a

:12:03.:12:06.

different view about the appropriate action to take on climate change,

:12:07.:12:11.

different to that of the US. Is the rest of the world entitled to sake

:12:12.:12:16.

you can put America first and do what you want, we will stick to

:12:17.:12:20.

Paris and put a small tariff on American exports because they are

:12:21.:12:23.

not burdened by the climate change taxes that we are all baring. I

:12:24.:12:27.

think the rest of the world can't talk about that but it should be

:12:28.:12:32.

recognised that the United States, because of the Shell oil and gas

:12:33.:12:37.

revolution, has done more to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions than

:12:38.:12:44.

any other country. Right. If the US, I supposed what I am really getting

:12:45.:12:51.

at here, is, the US is adopting a policy on, we are not going to take

:12:52.:12:55.

it any more. What happens if the rest of the world says OK, we will

:12:56.:13:00.

not take it any more as well because everyone else feels a bit hard done

:13:01.:13:04.

by and as if everyone is ripping them off. If that's dynamic plays

:13:05.:13:09.

out, where do you, a free-market libertarian type, where do you think

:13:10.:13:13.

that ends for the world and president Trump and for all his

:13:14.:13:19.

ambition? My underlying belief is that the United States, by

:13:20.:13:24.

withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement and removing funding from

:13:25.:13:26.

environmental programmes will be turning the world back in the right

:13:27.:13:31.

direction. Another part of the President Trump agenda is to make

:13:32.:13:34.

the United States is the largest energy producer in the world, which

:13:35.:13:39.

will free Europe from the threats from Russian gas and also reduce the

:13:40.:13:46.

influence of Opec. Yes. When do you expect President Trump to make an

:13:47.:13:51.

announcement on Paris and how he is progressing on that? Every time I

:13:52.:13:55.

say something I get misquoted. And it could happen at any time, it

:13:56.:14:01.

could happen tomorrow, or one month from now or later this spring. I

:14:02.:14:04.

don't think it's going to take forever, I have no idea when it

:14:05.:14:09.

might happen. I want to ask you because you have worked for a

:14:10.:14:13.

free-market think tank, you must disagree with the approach that the

:14:14.:14:17.

president is taking to trade. You don't believe in slapping a 20% tax

:14:18.:14:22.

on the border for Mexican goods, do you? Do you not believe that we have

:14:23.:14:28.

all been enhanced by free trade, are am not completely outdoors with the

:14:29.:14:31.

man you are serving in that transition team? The Institute is

:14:32.:14:37.

proudly and relentlessly free trade. That is why I was not asked to work

:14:38.:14:41.

on his trade policy. Are you going to be asked to get a permanent job

:14:42.:14:48.

in the administration? No. I agreed to work on the transition as a

:14:49.:14:51.

volunteer for four and a half months on condition I did not want a job in

:14:52.:14:57.

the federal government. Myron Ebell, thank you. Thank you.

:14:58.:15:02.

The government's Brexit White Paper came out today, adding more detail

:15:03.:15:05.

Actually, the White Paper had a few mistakes and typos,

:15:06.:15:09.

and if you look at the metadata on the electronic version,

:15:10.:15:11.

as the BBC's George Greenwood did, it appears to have been finished

:15:12.:15:14.

Just right-click on the pdf in Adobe, and look for

:15:15.:15:18.

A late draft is normal, but it suggests that a lot

:15:19.:15:22.

The document raises multiple issues, from civil nuclear regulation

:15:23.:15:25.

to data protection, just to say they'll be resolved

:15:26.:15:27.

Other specifics, such as the Erasmus higher education exchange programme

:15:28.:15:33.

or the pet passport scheme get no mention.

:15:34.:15:37.

Yes, the future travel status of millions of dogs

:15:38.:15:39.

Now this White Paper is just the British view -

:15:40.:15:50.

we may get our way, or we may be about to be hit by a

:15:51.:15:54.

Our political editor Nick Watt is with me.

:15:55.:15:57.

Nick, the Prime Minister will be heading to an EU gathering tomorrow.

:15:58.:16:03.

Tomorrow, Theresa May will attend what may well be one of the last

:16:04.:16:08.

European Council meetings before C trick is the Article 50 Brexit

:16:09.:16:12.

negotiations. She wants to do that early next month. -- before she

:16:13.:16:17.

triggers. That will take place in the Maltese capital of the letter

:16:18.:16:21.

and the main focus will be on the Mediterranean migration crisis.

:16:22.:16:24.

Theresa May will use that issue and that summit to tell the remainder of

:16:25.:16:29.

the EU that the UK wants to be a reliable partner when we have left

:16:30.:16:38.

and when Brexit has taken place. To will say that the UK will like to

:16:39.:16:41.

continue to tribute to the EU task force in the Mediterranean. She will

:16:42.:16:47.

cite naval aspects on border a cut is taking place. As the Brexit

:16:48.:16:53.

negotiations approach, there is a growing feeling in the Cabinet that

:16:54.:16:59.

the UK is facing a daunting task of historic proportions. So the key

:17:00.:17:05.

thing that the UK has got to do, is it has to show it will not be a

:17:06.:17:09.

supplicant in the talks. How do you do that? You start to play some of

:17:10.:17:15.

your key cards. We will help in a migration crisis. An interesting

:17:16.:17:19.

chapter in the White Paper, chapter 11, talking about how the UK plays a

:17:20.:17:24.

pivotal role in helping other EU countries tackle terrorism. I spoke

:17:25.:17:28.

to one member of the Cabinet who said, we are not saying we will

:17:29.:17:32.

withdraw cooperation on terrorism if the talks don't go our way, but it's

:17:33.:17:38.

probably a good idea to provide a reminder of the UK's significant

:17:39.:17:43.

role on that front. So on the day of the publication of that White Paper,

:17:44.:17:47.

we thought we would take a look at some of the main challenges that

:17:48.:17:51.

will face the UK in those Brexit negotiations.

:17:52.:18:02.

Well, it's 75 pages long and it provides the most detailed

:18:03.:18:05.

explanation of the government's approach to the Brexit negotiations,

:18:06.:18:09.

but there's not a single word about the first item on the EU

:18:10.:18:15.

The multi-billion pound divorce settlement the UK

:18:16.:18:20.

Instead, there is one short paragraph about

:18:21.:18:26.

and they are a long way down the line.

:18:27.:18:38.

Item number two on the EU list will be a demand for the UK

:18:39.:18:41.

to guarantee the rights of the 2.8 million EU

:18:42.:18:44.

Theresa May is holding back on this one because she wants to secure

:18:45.:18:52.

reciprocal rights for the 1 million Brits living in the rest of the EU.

:18:53.:18:55.

This issue could be resolved next week if an alliance of Tory

:18:56.:18:58.

backbenchers working quietly with senior Cabinet

:18:59.:19:00.

ministers manages to force the Prime Minister's hand.

:19:01.:19:14.

Theresa May wants to reach agreement on the UK's future partnership

:19:15.:19:17.

with the EU during the two-year Brexit talks, but the EU is only

:19:18.:19:20.

obliged to take account of the final settlement at this stage,

:19:21.:19:25.

prompting the UK to accept the need for an implementation period.

:19:26.:19:28.

The White Paper is silent on the EU's view on this period.

:19:29.:19:33.

Theresa May's decision to leave the single market means the UK

:19:34.:19:51.

will no longer be able to rely on so-called passporting rights

:19:52.:19:54.

to sell financial services across the EU.

:19:55.:19:58.

So the White Paper doesn't really talk about rules in this area.

:19:59.:20:01.

Instead, it has a very simple message for the rest of the EU.

:20:02.:20:06.

75% of your capital market business is conducted through the UK.

:20:07.:20:09.

Do you really want to put barriers in the way of that?

:20:10.:20:21.

Britain wants to free itself from much of the EU Customs Union

:20:22.:20:25.

to allow it to negotiate new free trade deals across the globe.

:20:26.:20:30.

But it does want to hold onto one benefit, tariff free trade

:20:31.:20:33.

Once again, the White Paper doesn't really talk about rules.

:20:34.:20:38.

Instead, it makes a simple plea to the EU.

:20:39.:20:43.

Surely you want to have a close relationship with one of the world's

:20:44.:20:46.

Joining me now to discuss this is the Italian Deputy Foreign

:20:47.:21:00.

Thank you for talking to us. When you sit down as the 27, without us,

:21:01.:21:11.

what do you talk about, what is the mood in the room, what do you think?

:21:12.:21:16.

Do they say it will be easy or difficult? Will we be a pushover? I

:21:17.:21:21.

think it's a daunting task. For both. Of course, it's a divorce.

:21:22.:21:31.

Divorce is always painful. And it's a failure. We are all responsible.

:21:32.:21:40.

And we have to act quickly and with fairness. Quickly also, because I

:21:41.:21:48.

know it's very complicated and we don't know exactly how to handle it.

:21:49.:21:53.

It's the first time. There is the example of Greenland,, but years and

:21:54.:21:56.

years ago, that was a little thing. The UK is a big thing. I say that we

:21:57.:22:05.

need to be quick because the financial markets left us no time.

:22:06.:22:13.

It's in everybody's interest that it is quick and smooth. You've had a

:22:14.:22:17.

quick glance at the White Paper. You heard Theresa May's speech and you

:22:18.:22:21.

know the British position. What do you think is not going to be

:22:22.:22:24.

deliverable, or will it all be deliverable? Everything is

:22:25.:22:31.

negotiable and deliverable. Everything. On one side, the White

:22:32.:22:42.

Paper is a wish list. How to handle it, the main thing is what we want.

:22:43.:22:49.

What the UK wants in this negotiation. But on the other side,

:22:50.:22:53.

the tone of the White Paper is a good one. In general, there is no

:22:54.:23:02.

supplicants in this story. Of course, it's a failure, we have to

:23:03.:23:06.

divide, but we have to be fair. The White Paper says, more or less, what

:23:07.:23:12.

are the best results for both? Pushing you want to specifics, what

:23:13.:23:15.

do you think will be the hardest of the issues you have seen laid out,

:23:16.:23:22.

the customs union? The rights of residents in different countries?

:23:23.:23:26.

What's the hardest issue? Probably the commercial things. Commercial

:23:27.:23:34.

things, because trade in general. Because the common market is very

:23:35.:23:38.

important for us. It's the building block of the EU. We need to speak a

:23:39.:23:46.

lot about that. It's very complicated. And also the idea to

:23:47.:23:54.

have on one side, bilateral trade agreements, it's a long job. It's a

:23:55.:24:01.

long story, you know? To do that. On the other side, the UK... We cannot

:24:02.:24:10.

accept that the UK will become a tax haven near to Europe. That's the

:24:11.:24:15.

back-up option. The Brits have said they don't want to do that, but

:24:16.:24:18.

that's what they would do if it was a bad deal. The British position is

:24:19.:24:23.

that when we all sit down together, you guys are bluffing. You will say

:24:24.:24:27.

this and that is difficult, but most of what we want is trade, you all

:24:28.:24:32.

want trade, we all benefit from trade, so you are bluffing and will

:24:33.:24:35.

give us what we want. Or as Boris Johnson will put it, it's all about

:24:36.:24:43.

Rossetto. You want to sell Prosser go and you will push it in the end.

:24:44.:24:50.

-- prosecco. There is a time question. Everybody wants a free

:24:51.:24:56.

market, of course. All the trade facilities. And of course it's in

:24:57.:25:03.

the ideals of everybody. On the other side, we worked a lot for the

:25:04.:25:12.

key is to have this common market. And to have another system in

:25:13.:25:16.

globalisation. Also, globalisation is weak now, but will not end, so to

:25:17.:25:25.

have plenty of bilateral agreements. You were speaking about multilateral

:25:26.:25:31.

and bilateral about the United States before. This is not

:25:32.:25:38.

multilateral. It is more than that, it is one common market. You cannot

:25:39.:25:44.

oppose that with dozens of bilateral agreements. First of all, to achieve

:25:45.:25:50.

this goal, you need time. Then we have to find something new, we have

:25:51.:25:54.

to be creative on this. A quick last one. One of the things the British

:25:55.:26:00.

have too offered the rest of the EU, we share security cooperation,

:26:01.:26:06.

advice on terrorism. And we also have a navy helping out in the

:26:07.:26:09.

Mediterranean in terms of the migrant crisis. Are those things,

:26:10.:26:16.

things that you hope are not part of the bargain or the negotiation, or

:26:17.:26:20.

do you think Britain will be rewarded, if you like, for offering

:26:21.:26:23.

those in keeping cooperation going on those? Look, I cannot imagine a

:26:24.:26:33.

Europe... And I don't say EU, I say Europe, without the UK, of course.

:26:34.:26:41.

And the main subject is defence. There is not any kind of European

:26:42.:26:50.

defence without the United Kingdom. That means defence, anti-terrorism,

:26:51.:26:54.

security, intelligence. On this field, and also in the other field

:26:55.:26:58.

of research, we need to be very cooperative among us. Mario Giro I

:26:59.:27:05.

thank you for talking to us. At one point he was the front

:27:06.:27:07.

runner, but Francois Fillon can now see his bid

:27:08.:27:10.

for the French presidency imploding. to pay her as a member of staff

:27:11.:27:12.

for many years, but the Telegraph unearthed a bit of a video interview

:27:13.:27:21.

they did with her some years back, when she said she

:27:22.:27:24.

didn't work for him. I've never been actually his

:27:25.:27:28.

assistant or anything like that. No, I don't deal

:27:29.:27:31.

with his communication. For many French voters,

:27:32.:27:37.

that video is the proof that the Fillons' intra-family

:27:38.:27:39.

payments were a rip-off Let's talk about the ramifications

:27:40.:27:42.

of this with two people keenly Pierre Haski, from the French news

:27:43.:27:46.

site Rue 89, is in Paris. Do you think Fillon's bid for the

:27:47.:28:09.

presidency is over? My feeling is that it's over. He's trying to

:28:10.:28:14.

resist. But he's an embattled candidate. He's trying to fight back

:28:15.:28:20.

but his credibility in shatters. Do you agree that it's over for Fillon?

:28:21.:28:26.

Yes, he's probably toast. Let's remember the allegations and also

:28:27.:28:30.

point out that it's not illegal, on the contrary, it's totally legal to

:28:31.:28:34.

employ a member of your family to be a parliamentary assistant. What is

:28:35.:28:39.

illegal is to get the taxpayer to pay for it. And for the member of

:28:40.:28:43.

the family not to do the work. What is worse is that we should remember

:28:44.:28:50.

that there is a history of doing good investigative work. The people

:28:51.:28:58.

who expose this particular story. It wasn't just this, there have been a

:28:59.:29:03.

sequence, a drip, drip, drip. She was getting paid by a billionaire's

:29:04.:29:08.

literary publication. That's right. And the staff had never seen her.

:29:09.:29:14.

Police raided Parliament the other day. This is not a surprise to

:29:15.:29:24.

French people that Mrs Fillon. It kicked off nine days ago. She has

:29:25.:29:30.

always been very reluctant and says she's a wife first and a mother to

:29:31.:29:34.

their children and is there to support her husband. That's never

:29:35.:29:38.

been a problem. What has surprised and stunned everybody, not just in

:29:39.:29:41.

their own party but across France is to discover that she had a full-time

:29:42.:29:45.

job as a parliamentary assistant and was then paid very handsomely and

:29:46.:29:51.

even by Francois Fillon's replacement. This is stunning, very

:29:52.:29:58.

bad news for him, bad news for the French conservatives, who don't have

:29:59.:30:04.

a alternative. It's very bad news for them. We have lost the line to

:30:05.:30:08.

Paris. Take us through what's happened. The way they have been

:30:09.:30:13.

doing it, appointing eight candidate through primaries like the United

:30:14.:30:16.

States. That is relatively new in France. What happens if you lose the

:30:17.:30:19.

candidate between the primary and the presidential election?

:30:20.:30:26.

That is the big question, there are a few scenarios. The most improbable

:30:27.:30:33.

is to go through the process again. Number one, it would be denying,

:30:34.:30:39.

this would be the second time for the Socialists, let's remember also,

:30:40.:30:50.

Juppe, he was another... We are in unpredictable territory, he beat him

:30:51.:30:55.

easily and beat Nicolas Sarkozy, so there are people, who, if the

:30:56.:30:59.

process is not respected, are discovering that their candidate who

:31:00.:31:02.

they thought would be the next French president in that second

:31:03.:31:07.

round on May seven is completely embattled. We have to say that the

:31:08.:31:12.

allegations are one thing but the way he has mishandled it, he said it

:31:13.:31:17.

was misogyny, he accused the media of being totally unfair, says it is

:31:18.:31:22.

a coup by the left, and institutional coup. He's making all

:31:23.:31:28.

kinds of accusations. I want to Bush, who will benefit, you could

:31:29.:31:33.

say it is Marine Le Pen, will say that the establishment are all in it

:31:34.:31:37.

for themselves and they must choose an anti-establishment candidate, or

:31:38.:31:43.

is it the bright younger guy coming through now, who picks up the votes?

:31:44.:31:50.

I think they will both pick up some. Notice how silent Marine Le Pen is

:31:51.:31:55.

being on this. She has her own problems. She had until January 31

:31:56.:32:00.

to repay to the European Parliament 300,000 euros, she did not do so.

:32:01.:32:10.

The accusation stands that she abused European funds, she abused

:32:11.:32:16.

them for her assistance in France and not Brussels. We find out more

:32:17.:32:22.

about Mr Macron. I've just found out that he's coming to London, we've

:32:23.:32:27.

got to get that in there, he's coming on February 21. It will be

:32:28.:32:33.

fascinating to see. Not elected, ex-banker but he is connecting,

:32:34.:32:38.

resonating. So all bets are off, if you want to place bets, do so. It is

:32:39.:32:43.

a serious business, we don't know who will be the next president.

:32:44.:32:48.

That's politics. I am sorry that we lost here.

:32:49.:32:50.

Our regular - or irregular - spot for ideas and views.

:32:51.:32:55.

Tonight, it's Pankaj Mishra, essayist, writer and author

:32:56.:32:57.

of the recent book, the Age of Anger,

:32:58.:32:59.

Blame modernity for our Age of Anger.

:33:00.:33:10.

Why do racism and misogyny flourish on social media?

:33:11.:33:14.

What is the appeal of lying demagogues?

:33:15.:33:19.

Since 9/11 we have blamed the Other, mostly Muslims,

:33:20.:33:21.

for political disorder, but the enemy now is more intimate,

:33:22.:33:23.

as we can see in the rise of Trump and the far right across Europe.

:33:24.:33:28.

The modern world's cherished ideals of liberty, equality and prosperity

:33:29.:33:33.

The problem is that it is difficult for the vast majority of the human

:33:34.:33:41.

These ideals were formulated by a tiny minority of ambitious

:33:42.:33:45.

Slave owners in America and networked intellectuals in Europe.

:33:46.:33:53.

Their projects of self-empowerment were never meant for the masses,

:33:54.:33:55.

Since 1789, many peoples who were deliberately excluded,

:33:56.:34:02.

whether women, enslaved or colonised peoples, or the working classes,

:34:03.:34:05.

have struggled for liberty and equality through either

:34:06.:34:07.

In recent decades, we have stopped talking about revolution

:34:08.:34:12.

We have transferred our expectations to the markets.

:34:13.:34:22.

We hoped that global capitalism would create general prosperity

:34:23.:34:28.

Instead, as more and more people around the world have sought wealth,

:34:29.:34:33.

at increasing costs to the environment, we have seen

:34:34.:34:35.

The result is a toxic politics of resentment

:34:36.:34:40.

This militant disaffection incited by unequal societies is nothing new.

:34:41.:34:46.

For the last two tumultuous centuries we have been encouraged

:34:47.:34:48.

to pursue ideals that were designed for the benefit of a homogenous few.

:34:49.:34:52.

Billions of people are now chasing a very fragile illusion with ever

:34:53.:34:54.

To understand our Age of Anger, we must not only look

:34:55.:35:02.

at the symptoms, such as Isis, economic disparity, or the far

:35:03.:35:05.

right, but also at the root cause, the ideals that underpin modernity.

:35:06.:35:08.

Only then can we make the ideals of liberty and equality

:35:09.:35:12.

work for our diverse and environmentally

:35:13.:35:15.

You are quite down on the way the world has been running itself. You

:35:16.:35:45.

would not think, listening to your Viewsnight that over the last two

:35:46.:35:49.

decades 1 billion people have been taken out of acute poverty in the

:35:50.:35:55.

world, has it been that bad? They have been taken out of poverty but

:35:56.:35:59.

have you thought about where they will go next? What will happen,

:36:00.:36:06.

these are just 1 billion people taken out of poverty, there are more

:36:07.:36:11.

people waiting. Another billion waiting... And they have been

:36:12.:36:15.

promised that they will share in the prosperity that has been created by

:36:16.:36:21.

a global capitalist economy worldwide, and we know that they

:36:22.:36:25.

will not attain that particular utopia. The world, the planet itself

:36:26.:36:30.

does not have the resources to cater to that kind of fantasy. Is it that

:36:31.:36:37.

the planet itself is limited? It's not just at the environmental level,

:36:38.:36:42.

it's also political, we are seeing the politically toxic consequences

:36:43.:36:46.

of feeding people forced promises. Something which, this kind of

:36:47.:36:50.

discourse, that billions of people are being lifted out of... Progress

:36:51.:36:55.

is happening, irreversible, inevitable, this discourse which the

:36:56.:36:58.

media has been disseminating since the end of the Cold War is very much

:36:59.:37:04.

complicit in this. You go back to 1789 anti-work right critical of the

:37:05.:37:11.

Enlightenment -- and you were quite critical of the way people had come

:37:12.:37:14.

allies to themselves, it trickled down quite a bit, didn't it, to the

:37:15.:37:21.

societies, where, not the whole world... But you look at where

:37:22.:37:26.

people were between say, year zero and the industrial revolution, they

:37:27.:37:29.

were checking along on two or $3 a day on average, and now we are all

:37:30.:37:35.

just sitting around, basically, the poverty line in the United States is

:37:36.:37:41.

$63 a day for a family of four. Let's call that a $16 a day per

:37:42.:37:47.

person. Incomparably better than 200 years ago. Yes, but the problem is,

:37:48.:37:51.

this is where we are all going wrong when you are computing, talking

:37:52.:37:56.

about such massive changes, talking about people being lifted out of

:37:57.:38:00.

poverty, what you are failing to consider is that people, making

:38:01.:38:06.

these massive changes in their lives, they are also experiencing

:38:07.:38:10.

loss, disillusionment, frustration. This is what the book is partly

:38:11.:38:14.

about, these ideas that we have lived with, I am not saying they are

:38:15.:38:19.

not admirable or worthy of pursuit, I am saying that they have caused

:38:20.:38:24.

terrible disillusionment and disaffection for a long time and

:38:25.:38:28.

many times that disaffection has become politically toxic... I do

:38:29.:38:32.

see, one reason that there might be some edge disillusionment in the

:38:33.:38:37.

world is that technology have shown people what they are missing in a

:38:38.:38:42.

way that it did not. They are much better off but they know how much

:38:43.:38:46.

worse off they were. This is the paradox. When things improve,

:38:47.:38:52.

people's expectations go through the roof. Why say it is about white men,

:38:53.:38:58.

the system they invented works in China... A statement is too often

:38:59.:39:04.

ignored, Barack Obama ignored it, saying that protesting African

:39:05.:39:07.

Americans are demanding the equality promised to them by the founding

:39:08.:39:12.

fathers. This is not history, this is fantasy. First we must

:39:13.:39:15.

acknowledge that these ideas were created by a small group of

:39:16.:39:20.

self-serving people who wanted liberty from certain specific

:39:21.:39:23.

authorities of their time. They were not thinking of liberty for

:39:24.:39:27.

everyone. They were not even thinking about who was human and who

:39:28.:39:34.

was not. And they extended their realm... Who is they? The people you

:39:35.:39:40.

are talking about. People fought for those liberties. They were not given

:39:41.:39:45.

to them. Segregation existed until the late 20th century. What is your

:39:46.:39:55.

counter hypothesis? What is the system you would like to see? A

:39:56.:40:00.

system that is environmentally sustainable. An economy, basically,

:40:01.:40:09.

this is why I say, you have to think about our place in the world and the

:40:10.:40:17.

transformation of the world. The system has been demonstrably better.

:40:18.:40:20.

We are in the middle of a lot of at least in the West. We are now in the

:40:21.:40:24.

modern world, there is no way back, that is for sure. Capitalist western

:40:25.:40:32.

democracy, is that the best system, basically? Have we tried other

:40:33.:40:37.

systems? From time to time, and they have done pretty badly. What we are

:40:38.:40:44.

dealing with is modern economics, what we are witnessing, is people

:40:45.:40:47.

thinking that one system works for the entire world. And we know that

:40:48.:40:53.

the one size fits all solution is light in tatters today. Pankaj,

:40:54.:40:55.

thank you very much. And we'll be continuing our

:40:56.:41:00.

discussion with Pankaj Mishra on Facebook right after

:41:01.:41:02.

we come off air. That's on the BBC

:41:03.:41:04.

Newsnight Facebook page. You can see that on the screen. We

:41:05.:41:12.

are going to go and do that. We leave you with that

:41:13.:41:17.

Trump-Schwarzenegger feud you may have heard about earlier

:41:18.:41:20.

in the programme. Both men have had something to say

:41:21.:41:22.

in the last 24 hours. See if you can spot which one works

:41:23.:41:25.

on Celebrity Apprentice and which one is the President

:41:26.:41:27.

of the United States. ...Had tremendous success

:41:28.:41:30.

on The Apprentice. I know the American people are not

:41:31.:41:32.

people that sit just in front of the television set

:41:33.:41:35.

and always complain... And they hired a big,

:41:36.:41:39.

big movie star, Arnold Because they know democracy

:41:40.:41:41.

is not a spectator sport. If you don't like

:41:42.:41:46.

something, you get up. The ratings went

:41:47.:41:50.

right down the tubes. And you go and do

:41:51.:41:56.

something about it. I think the American people

:41:57.:41:58.

are going to get up. And I want to just

:41:59.:42:01.

pray for Arnold, if we And that I think is the bottom line,

:42:02.:42:04.

this is why I think we Still a very windy end to the

:42:05.:42:22.

evening but as we head to Friday and more windy and wet weather to come,

:42:23.:42:25.

the potential for more disruption because of the strength of the wind,

:42:26.:42:30.

and the rain looks persistent and may

:42:31.:42:31.

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis. Is there method to Trump's foreign diplomacy, or madness? Plus the Brexit white paper, the implosion of the French presidential front-runner, and Viewsnight - why is the world so angry?


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