Browse content similar to 27/02/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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John Major hits out at the Brexiteers, accusing them | :00:00. | :00:07. | |
of attempting to silence the 48% who voted Remain. | :00:08. | :00:13. | |
Freedom of speech is absolute in our country. It's not arrogant or brazen | :00:14. | :00:25. | |
or elitist or remotely delusional to express concern about our future | :00:26. | :00:26. | |
after Brexit. First amongst cheerleaders, | :00:27. | :00:28. | |
Ian Duncan Smith tells me the former Prime Minister sounds angry | :00:29. | :00:31. | |
and strangely bitter. Also tonight: The experts are | :00:32. | :00:41. | |
terrible. I think the people in this country have had enough of experts. | :00:42. | :00:47. | |
We kept hearing winning politicians say they've had | :00:48. | :00:49. | |
What does Michael Gove think of experts now? | :00:50. | :00:54. | |
Many of those making assertions on the Remain side were relying on | :00:55. | :01:01. | |
people meekly submitting to authority as though we were still in | :01:02. | :01:08. | |
the prereformation Catholic Church rather than making proper arguments. | :01:09. | :01:11. | |
We'll speak to those who think Mr Gove was putting his | :01:12. | :01:14. | |
finger on something. And, of course, the Oscars. | :01:15. | :01:16. | |
I'm sorry. There's a mistake. Moonlight you won Best Picture. No, | :01:17. | :01:20. | |
not that, this... The Oscar winner Best Documentary | :01:21. | :01:34. | |
is about the civilian We'll speak to one | :01:35. | :01:36. | |
of the White Helmets. For the first time since the UK | :01:37. | :01:39. | |
voted to leave the European Union, former Prime Minister, | :01:40. | :01:43. | |
John Major, has spoken out of his He warned of a real risk that | :01:44. | :01:45. | |
Government would not achieve all that it had | :01:46. | :01:50. | |
promised from Brexit. He said a comprehensive deal | :01:51. | :01:52. | |
was unlikely by 2019 and that a failure to deliver would result | :01:53. | :01:55. | |
in further distrust He launched an excoriating attack | :01:56. | :01:57. | |
on the cheerleaders for Brexit. He accused of shouting down | :01:58. | :02:05. | |
the legitimate comment We'll hear response to this | :02:06. | :02:07. | |
carefully-timed interjection from Iain Duncan Smith in a moment, | :02:08. | :02:13. | |
first let's go to our Nick, as I was saying, you don't | :02:14. | :02:23. | |
hear from John Major that often, what did you make of it? This is a | :02:24. | :02:28. | |
significant speech. John Major is normally very careful to ration his | :02:29. | :02:32. | |
interventions. He's sensitive to the charge he would be criticising his | :02:33. | :02:38. | |
successors in Number Ten. Don't forget, he's deeply scarred by his | :02:39. | :02:41. | |
experience, after becoming Prime Minister. Margaret Thatcher famously | :02:42. | :02:45. | |
said she would make a great back seat driver. When David Cameron | :02:46. | :02:49. | |
became Prime Minister, he had an informal understanding with David | :02:50. | :02:51. | |
Cameron, who had worked for him in Number Ten in the early 1990s. The | :02:52. | :02:56. | |
agreement was that John Major would only make intervention that's were | :02:57. | :03:00. | |
helpful to him. Clearly he feels different about Theresa May, elected | :03:01. | :03:05. | |
to Parliament in 1997, the year that he lost that election and ceased to | :03:06. | :03:08. | |
be Prime Minister. He obviously feels there is a danger that she is | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
presiding over potentially a damaging Brexit. So he's decided to | :03:13. | :03:17. | |
speak out. This was his central message. | :03:18. | :03:21. | |
I have two objectives this evening, to offer a reality check on our | :03:22. | :03:29. | |
national prospects and to warn against an over optimism, that, if | :03:30. | :03:37. | |
it is unachieved, will so further dis-- sow further distrust between | :03:38. | :03:40. | |
politics and. Unlick at a time when trust needs to be rebuilt. It would | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
be better to underplay rather than overplay expectations. The | :03:46. | :03:54. | |
post-referendum debate has been deeply disspiriting. After decades | :03:55. | :03:59. | |
of campaigning the anti-Europeans won their battle to take Britain out | :04:00. | :04:07. | |
of Europe. But in the afterglow of victory, their cheerleaders have | :04:08. | :04:12. | |
shown a disregard that amounts to contempt for the 48% who believed | :04:13. | :04:15. | |
our future was more secure within the European Union. | :04:16. | :04:17. | |
It's clearly heart felt, but what do you think more than that is driving | :04:18. | :04:24. | |
it in terms of the timing? John Major profoundly believe that's the | :04:25. | :04:26. | |
UK should have voted to stay in the EU. One of the first trips he made | :04:27. | :04:36. | |
as Prime Minister was to the then capital of Germany Bonn and said | :04:37. | :04:39. | |
Britain should remain at the heart of Europe. Some, though by no means | :04:40. | :04:44. | |
all of the message in this speech, echos some of the concerns raised by | :04:45. | :04:47. | |
Tony Blair, who unseated him in 1997. There's a faint echo of Tony | :04:48. | :04:51. | |
Blair when he was saying that Theresa May is not driving the | :04:52. | :04:56. | |
Brexit bus. It is being driven by those hard line Euro-sceptics who | :04:57. | :05:01. | |
want a clean break from Europe and John Major obviously is haunted by | :05:02. | :05:07. | |
those Euro-sceptics who gave him such grief on the Maastricht Treaty | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
25 years ago. He warned Theresa May to face down those who favour total | :05:13. | :05:16. | |
disengagement from the European Union. You've been gauging a bit of | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
reaction to this as it came out Yes, a terse statement from Number Ten, | :05:23. | :05:26. | |
challenging John Major who praised the Remainers and criticise the | :05:27. | :05:30. | |
Leavers. Number Ten says, we're moving beyond the language of Leave | :05:31. | :05:34. | |
and Remain because we want to unite the country. I spoke to some Remain | :05:35. | :05:38. | |
ministers who privately welcome this. Interestingly, quite senior | :05:39. | :05:42. | |
figures in the Government, who are fans of John Major are saying, this | :05:43. | :05:46. | |
doesn't sound quite right. This is not in the spirit of what I was | :05:47. | :05:49. | |
talking about earlier, where he tries to make constructive | :05:50. | :05:53. | |
interventions. What these fans are saying are by all means raise your | :05:54. | :05:57. | |
concerns about Brexit, but if you are seen to undermine the Prime | :05:58. | :06:01. | |
Minister, then I'm afraid to say, you are only going to undermine your | :06:02. | :06:05. | |
own position within the Conservative Party. Thanks very much. John Major | :06:06. | :06:10. | |
talked about the Brexit cheerleaders. | :06:11. | :06:12. | |
Earlier, I spoke to the former Cabinet Minister and stalwart | :06:13. | :06:14. | |
of the Leave Campaign, Iain Duncan Smith. | :06:15. | :06:16. | |
I asked him if John Major's speech made him think twice | :06:17. | :06:18. | |
about what Brexit promised and what it is actually delivering. | :06:19. | :06:24. | |
What I thought when I looked at this speech was that this was a peculiar | :06:25. | :06:30. | |
speech in the sense that it looked backwards the whole time. It was | :06:31. | :06:34. | |
almost like a refight of the referendum all the same threats and | :06:35. | :06:37. | |
issues that came up during project fear were all in here. Strangely | :06:38. | :06:41. | |
bitter, really. And almost really the speech of someone who simply | :06:42. | :06:45. | |
refuses to accept that the British people should have made a decision | :06:46. | :06:48. | |
such as they did and wants them almost to rerun it again until they | :06:49. | :06:52. | |
get it right, which is rather sad. He doesn't seem to question the | :06:53. | :06:55. | |
result. He says there's a growing concern the British public have been | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
led to expect a future that's unreal and over optimistic, that obstacles | :07:01. | :07:04. | |
have been brushed aside. He's asking Brexiteers to be more honest with | :07:05. | :07:08. | |
the British public instead of pretending it's a walk in the park. | :07:09. | :07:11. | |
I don't think anyone's pretending it's a walk in the park. Theresa May | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
least of all. She's going to do the negotiations. I think she's taken | :07:16. | :07:20. | |
this on in a very realistic way. What she's saying is the British | :07:21. | :07:23. | |
people voted to leave. We must now deliver that. At the end of it all, | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
we want a decent relationship with Europe. We're leaving the European | :07:28. | :07:30. | |
Union, we're not leaving Europe. The speech was full of unrealistic | :07:31. | :07:37. | |
rather angry threats. I can't see the point of that now. 69% of the | :07:38. | :07:42. | |
public voted in a poll to get on it. They're not looking back. What do | :07:43. | :07:47. | |
you thist threats? They're a rerun of - you know, oh, it's going to be | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
a disaster, you're being too optimistic. What's the alternative? | :07:52. | :07:54. | |
You go into the European Union saying this is all going to be | :07:55. | :07:59. | |
terrible, help us out, it's a disaster, it's miserable. That's not | :08:00. | :08:02. | |
the way to run a negotiation. When you look at the rhetoric used, John | :08:03. | :08:06. | |
Redwood saying there will be no economic damage. Boris saying | :08:07. | :08:09. | |
countries will be queueing up to be our trade partners. Michael Gove | :08:10. | :08:14. | |
saying our best days are ahead. He's saying don't promise otherwise you | :08:15. | :08:17. | |
create a distrust all over again between the public and politicians. | :08:18. | :08:21. | |
I don't think the public expects this to be a complete walk in the | :08:22. | :08:25. | |
park. The way it's sold, they would. I'm not so certain about that. If | :08:26. | :08:29. | |
you look carefully at what's being said, what people are saying are | :08:30. | :08:32. | |
that it's in the hands of the British people to do the best out of | :08:33. | :08:35. | |
this and actually do well. It's in our hands. It's not in somebody | :08:36. | :08:39. | |
else's hands now. That's the point. You can be optimistic going forward | :08:40. | :08:43. | |
because you believe that the British people are capable of remarkable | :08:44. | :08:46. | |
things. But to be pessimistic about them is the wrong attitude. I got | :08:47. | :08:50. | |
from this speech a deep pessimism about the idea of the UK outside the | :08:51. | :08:55. | |
European Union. But we've had that debate. We've had that vote. The | :08:56. | :08:59. | |
point I'd simply make is, and I'm really sorry that he's chosen to | :09:00. | :09:03. | |
couch this in really what I consider to be quite bitter terms about the | :09:04. | :09:07. | |
process, and such a depressing forecast about the future, it would | :09:08. | :09:11. | |
be far better that he should actually say, like the British | :09:12. | :09:14. | |
people have made their minds up, let's get on with this. Let's make | :09:15. | :09:22. | |
of most of this. Let's do the best. A former Prime Minister should have | :09:23. | :09:25. | |
more faith in the British people. He points his finger at the Brexiteers | :09:26. | :09:30. | |
who shout down disagreement, who claim to want Parliament to have | :09:31. | :09:33. | |
sovereignty and have taken issue with anyone that has asked about | :09:34. | :09:37. | |
amendments, questioned how Brexit will happen. That's crazy, isn't it? | :09:38. | :09:41. | |
That's the nature of debate. That's what he says. He says you have shut | :09:42. | :09:46. | |
it down. You talk about frustrating the will of the British people, or | :09:47. | :09:50. | |
calling it a slap in the face if the Lords frustrate it. He says you have | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
shut down debate. With a bit of respect to John Major, I was here 25 | :09:55. | :09:59. | |
years ago when the Maastricht Treaty was being pushed through. I seem to | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
recall he and many of his Cabinet shouted down those concerned about | :10:04. | :10:08. | |
Maastricht, which has turned out to be an unmitigated disaster. A bit of | :10:09. | :10:12. | |
humility in this might not be a bad thing. The reality is that is the | :10:13. | :10:16. | |
nature of robust debate. We're going to have this huge reform bill coming | :10:17. | :10:20. | |
through. Everything will be debated ad nauseum. Then people will get a | :10:21. | :10:24. | |
vote at the end of it on whether or not they agree with the agreement | :10:25. | :10:27. | |
that Theresa May brings forward. When he says Brexit cheerleaders | :10:28. | :10:30. | |
have shown a disregard that amounts to contempt for the 48% of those who | :10:31. | :10:36. | |
voted Remain, you don't call that a disregard for what they're saying. | :10:37. | :10:39. | |
You're encouraging them to do that, are you? I encourage everybody to | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
debate. I'm happy with debate. Why do you call it a slap in the face, | :10:44. | :10:50. | |
why call it shenanigans? Those who voted Leave will have their opinion | :10:51. | :10:53. | |
on where we go in the future. I relish that. And amending if you | :10:54. | :10:58. | |
need to after the debate? What are you going to amend? The difference | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
is are you going to amend this short bill that says we want to trigger | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
Article 50? There's no point in debate then. You can have a go at | :11:07. | :11:12. | |
amending the other bill ad nauseum. Why do you think John Major entered | :11:13. | :11:15. | |
the debate now? I don't know why he chose to speak. I would have hoped | :11:16. | :11:19. | |
had John Major spoken he might have been a lot more positive. He might | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
have actually said, there are going to be difficulties rgs thction what | :11:25. | :11:28. | |
-- difficulties, this is what I would do, this is what we can | :11:29. | :11:32. | |
achieve. I felt today's speech was a lost opportunity for someone who was | :11:33. | :11:35. | |
the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, rather like Tony Blair, not | :11:36. | :11:39. | |
harking back to what happened, not sounding bitter and angry, not | :11:40. | :11:42. | |
looking like you don't have a lot rove inspect for what the British | :11:43. | :11:45. | |
people are capable of doing and making the wrong decision. Instead | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
of which saying, look, we can do these things. We have faith in the | :11:50. | :11:53. | |
British people. After all, when we were elected in 1992 and John Major | :11:54. | :11:56. | |
became the Prime Minister, I don't recall he turned around and said I | :11:57. | :11:59. | |
really don't have a lot of time for the British voters. They seem to | :12:00. | :12:03. | |
have made the wrong decision. He accepted their decision. Thank you | :12:04. | :12:05. | |
very much. Michael Gove's claim that "people | :12:06. | :12:08. | |
in this country have had enough of experts" was one of the most | :12:09. | :12:11. | |
memorable lines of the EU But was it just a throwaway | :12:12. | :12:13. | |
soundbite or did Mr Gove Are we really less willing to trust | :12:14. | :12:17. | |
the people who were once And have we come to distrust | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
all experts or just the kind who claim to know how | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
the economy will behave? Our editor Ian Katz went | :12:27. | :12:28. | |
in search of some answers. June 24th was a grim day | :12:29. | :12:35. | |
in Britain's ivory towers. The Brexit vote a punch | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
on the nose for an intellectual elite who had lined up | :12:40. | :12:42. | |
in favour of staying in the EU. This will be affected | :12:43. | :12:46. | |
for ordinary people. But did the referendum reveal, | :12:47. | :12:49. | |
perhaps even cause, lasting change in our relationship | :12:50. | :12:56. | |
with the people we once The Bank of England, | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
the IFS, the IMF, the CBI and most of the leaders | :13:01. | :13:13. | |
of the trade unions The working people of this country | :13:14. | :13:15. | |
at last get a fair deal. I think the people in | :13:16. | :13:19. | |
this country have had enough of experts with organisations | :13:20. | :13:21. | |
and acronyms saying that they know what is best and getting | :13:22. | :13:24. | |
it consistently wrong. Michael Gove may have trotted | :13:25. | :13:26. | |
out a glib sound bite to deflect an awkward question, | :13:27. | :13:28. | |
but it was one with potentially Have we ceased to believe | :13:29. | :13:31. | |
that men and women with An assault on the very idea | :13:32. | :13:37. | |
that society is built Those who are expert, | :13:38. | :13:45. | |
who have the knowledge, who have the intellectual ability | :13:46. | :13:51. | |
to dissect these difficult problems In recent years politicians | :13:52. | :13:54. | |
have increasingly pushed experts to the fore, | :13:55. | :14:00. | |
to justify their decisions. But in a world where experts lose | :14:01. | :14:04. | |
trust, how can politicians tackle climate change or convince us that | :14:05. | :14:08. | |
vaccinations are safe? Some even see in the anti-expert | :14:09. | :14:14. | |
rhetoric a slippery slope that leads to the post fact morass of Trump's | :14:15. | :14:22. | |
America. I've always wanted to say this, | :14:23. | :14:25. | |
I've never said this before, all the talking we all do, | :14:26. | :14:28. | |
all of these experts, we need an expert here, | :14:29. | :14:31. | |
the experts are terrible. The assault on experts has | :14:32. | :14:35. | |
implications for fields But it's economists who find | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
themselves on the front line. We are right to question experts, | :14:40. | :14:46. | |
particularly after what happened When experts said that consumer | :14:47. | :14:50. | |
confidence would fall, the stock markets would fall, | :14:51. | :14:55. | |
growth would cease, house prices would go up immediately, | :14:56. | :14:58. | |
as a result of the vote, Do you think it's time we gave up | :14:59. | :15:00. | |
listening to economists? I think we should pay a lot | :15:01. | :15:06. | |
of attention to economists except when they're talking | :15:07. | :15:09. | |
about the future. In 1949 a young economist | :15:10. | :15:13. | |
from New Zealand built this He used bits of old Lancaster | :15:14. | :15:23. | |
bombers and DIY skills picked up Phillips's machine, now | :15:24. | :15:28. | |
at Cambridge University, uses flows of water to model | :15:29. | :15:34. | |
the behaviour of the British economy, literally | :15:35. | :15:37. | |
trickle-down economics. The economy comes out through here, | :15:38. | :15:46. | |
around the pump at the back, Some of which goes off to savings, | :15:47. | :15:49. | |
so this is the banking sector. It could be a perfect metaphor | :15:50. | :15:53. | |
for what's wrong with economics. The embodiment of a mechanistic view | :15:54. | :15:57. | |
that assumes people will behave Social science | :15:58. | :15:59. | |
masquerading as science. It is telling us when you move | :16:00. | :16:06. | |
the levers in the economy how It's a model of the economy | :16:07. | :16:09. | |
as a machine isn't it? Is it reasonable to see | :16:10. | :16:15. | |
the economy as a machine? I don't know, that's a deeply | :16:16. | :16:18. | |
philosophical question. Economic forecasting has always | :16:19. | :16:21. | |
been a bit hit and miss. It's early function, | :16:22. | :16:33. | |
said JK Galbraith, was to make Economists flag up the uncertainty | :16:34. | :16:35. | |
and assumptions behind their But that nuance is often | :16:36. | :16:39. | |
stripped away by politicians In defence of economists I would say | :16:40. | :16:45. | |
that short-term forecasting We are talking about trying | :16:46. | :16:51. | |
to predict the actions of millions of different consumers | :16:52. | :16:55. | |
across the economy and trying to impose some order on all of that, | :16:56. | :16:59. | |
those millions of decisions, is inevitably going to | :17:00. | :17:04. | |
be really difficult. Victoria Bateman is | :17:05. | :17:06. | |
an economic historian. She thinks the attack on experts has | :17:07. | :17:09. | |
implications far beyond economics. I also think it was dangerous, | :17:10. | :17:12. | |
when we looked through out history, when we look at attempts to attack | :17:13. | :17:18. | |
intellectuals and those go back to the period | :17:19. | :17:29. | |
before the Enlightenment. I think it's particularly dangerous | :17:30. | :17:31. | |
for a western politician in a western democracy to be playing | :17:32. | :17:33. | |
this game of anti-intellectualising. I think the people in this country | :17:34. | :17:37. | |
have had enough of experts, It's perhaps ironic that | :17:38. | :17:40. | |
a man regarded as one figures in British politics is now | :17:41. | :17:47. | |
famous for one of its most Gove insists he was | :17:48. | :17:51. | |
quoted out of context. He didn't mean to | :17:52. | :17:54. | |
impugn all experts. I was particularly thinking | :17:55. | :17:57. | |
about organisations like the IMF, who I thought had called the Euro | :17:58. | :18:01. | |
wrong and were calling And I felt, at the very least, | :18:02. | :18:04. | |
we should challenge their arguments rather than simply saying, | :18:05. | :18:08. | |
oh well, because you are a tenured academic, or because you work | :18:09. | :18:10. | |
for the IMF, you must be right. You are famous for your linguistic | :18:11. | :18:14. | |
rigour, why didn't you say something more like what you've just | :18:15. | :18:18. | |
said to me? It was a high-profile, | :18:19. | :18:21. | |
high intensity, high tension, There is a difference | :18:22. | :18:26. | |
between the considered use of language in a conversation | :18:27. | :18:32. | |
like this and having Do you regret having used the word | :18:33. | :18:35. | |
experts in that context? No, I think, life is | :18:36. | :18:42. | |
too short for regrets. I think one of the things | :18:43. | :18:44. | |
that is occasionally irritating is that people assume that | :18:45. | :18:48. | |
what I was saying was a blanket rejection | :18:49. | :18:52. | |
of facts, evidence, rigour. Or the Chancellor or | :18:53. | :19:00. | |
the Prime Minister? They don't know any more | :19:01. | :19:03. | |
than we do, do they, really? Before the referendum, | :19:04. | :19:09. | |
Newsnight came to Bognor where Joan and some friends told us why | :19:10. | :19:13. | |
they would ignore warnings from experts like the governor | :19:14. | :19:15. | |
of the Bank of England. Does he know what it's like to go | :19:16. | :19:18. | |
around Sainsbury's, shopping? That line seemed to reveal something | :19:19. | :19:20. | |
profound about our changing relationship with experts, | :19:21. | :19:25. | |
so we've come back. Joan is away but over a cup of tea | :19:26. | :19:30. | |
I asked a few of the locals how It's too much scaremongering | :19:31. | :19:34. | |
from so-called experts. Too many organisations | :19:35. | :19:43. | |
and businesses that all they do is study graphs and take polls | :19:44. | :19:47. | |
and they just seem to make And I don't believe that they can, | :19:48. | :19:50. | |
that they know best. How on earth do we decide what to | :19:51. | :19:56. | |
listen to and what not to listen to? A lot of people have | :19:57. | :20:03. | |
got good common sense. You are not impressed | :20:04. | :20:09. | |
by the expertise of academics, why are you sceptical about people | :20:10. | :20:14. | |
who have spent often years They are just ordinary people | :20:15. | :20:17. | |
but unfortunately they get stuck in this little bubble | :20:18. | :20:22. | |
of what they are doing. So you will make all your judgment | :20:23. | :20:25. | |
based on what you hear, not It depends on what | :20:26. | :20:28. | |
they actually say. It sounds like what you're saying | :20:29. | :20:35. | |
is we should just pick Well there's plenty | :20:36. | :20:38. | |
of them out there. Perhaps not everywhere in Britain | :20:39. | :20:47. | |
is as allergic to boffins as Bognor. But it does seem we are far less | :20:48. | :20:51. | |
willing to take the pronouncements At least part of the answer must lie | :20:52. | :20:54. | |
with the Internet and the way it handed all of us the keys | :20:55. | :21:03. | |
to the kind of specialist knowledge Which of us hasn't diagnosed | :21:04. | :21:06. | |
an ailment with a little help from Doctor Google long before | :21:07. | :21:11. | |
arriving in the doctor's If the Internet has chipped away | :21:12. | :21:13. | |
at the respect commanded by many experts, it's done the opposite | :21:14. | :21:21. | |
for one man. Polls, if they still count | :21:22. | :21:25. | |
for anything consistently found that Martin Lewis was the figure trusted | :21:26. | :21:27. | |
most on Brexit. He thinks the trouble | :21:28. | :21:32. | |
starts when experts start Because you can't | :21:33. | :21:34. | |
make that prediction. This is a world about probability | :21:35. | :21:41. | |
and chance but what we had in the EU referendum was people giving us | :21:42. | :21:45. | |
black and white Lewis thinks that part | :21:46. | :21:46. | |
of the problem is that many experts appear to take sides | :21:47. | :21:52. | |
in the referendum argument. It was a problem we wrestled | :21:53. | :21:55. | |
with on Newsnight. In the eyes of the two campaigns, | :21:56. | :22:01. | |
no expert was sufficiently I think some experts made | :22:02. | :22:04. | |
the mistake of campaigning and therefore presenting their views | :22:05. | :22:07. | |
as part of a campaign which immediately says that | :22:08. | :22:11. | |
you are biased one way or the other. The public will perceive | :22:12. | :22:14. | |
it and not trust you. And even those who didn't then | :22:15. | :22:18. | |
allowed their information to be If the Enlightenment | :22:19. | :22:20. | |
has its sacred texts, one of them is Isaac Newton's Principia | :22:21. | :22:27. | |
Mathematica. Newton's own annotated copy | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
is the prized possession A temple to knowledge so chilly, | :22:32. | :22:33. | |
the librarians wear anoraks. So this is a Newton's own copy | :22:34. | :22:42. | |
of the Principia Mathematica? This is indeed, it's | :22:43. | :22:45. | |
one of the great works It's the book that inflicted | :22:46. | :22:52. | |
calculus on centuries Newton helped put science | :22:53. | :22:57. | |
at the centre of our modern world. Yet some worry that the assault | :22:58. | :23:03. | |
on experts has spread beyond economics and the social | :23:04. | :23:09. | |
sciences and now challenges Unfortunately, Mr Gove's remarks | :23:10. | :23:11. | |
spilled over into all sorts of other areas where experts have an enormous | :23:12. | :23:17. | |
contribution to make to the proper running of society | :23:18. | :23:22. | |
and for good policy development. Science is absolutely | :23:23. | :23:24. | |
there because science is based on reason and evidence and the fact | :23:25. | :23:27. | |
that experts have been derided in this way does have an effect | :23:28. | :23:34. | |
in undermining science We've come to another | :23:35. | :23:36. | |
temple to knowledge, London's gleaming Francis Crick | :23:37. | :23:43. | |
Institute. Noble prize-winning geneticist | :23:44. | :23:48. | |
Paul Nurse believes Michael Gove probably was thinking of economists | :23:49. | :23:51. | |
in his infamous comment, but it was irresponsible not | :23:52. | :23:54. | |
to clarify his remarks. Opinions on the front foot, | :23:55. | :24:02. | |
and those who are expert, who have the knowledge, | :24:03. | :24:05. | |
who have the intellectual ability to dissect these difficult problems | :24:06. | :24:09. | |
are being derided and pushed back. My view about this is that it cannot | :24:10. | :24:16. | |
last very long because opinion And it rapidly falls apart, | :24:17. | :24:19. | |
and I think we are seeing that The expert bashers believe | :24:20. | :24:23. | |
they were vindicated by the fact that most economists got | :24:24. | :24:33. | |
the short-term consequences But have they started | :24:34. | :24:35. | |
something more dangerous? Has Gove emboldened people | :24:36. | :24:42. | |
to dismiss all kind of expert Worry that you've actually let | :24:43. | :24:45. | |
something bigger get rolling that I entirely understand that, | :24:46. | :24:52. | |
yes, and I think that, I'm sure there are people who have | :24:53. | :24:57. | |
latched on that word, either those who fear that rise of, | :24:58. | :25:03. | |
a superstitious approach towards knowledge, who think that | :25:04. | :25:06. | |
I may have legitimised it and it may be that there are some people out | :25:07. | :25:11. | |
there that think that I am giving All I would say is that that phrase | :25:12. | :25:15. | |
apart, during my political lifetime, both when I was Education Secretary | :25:16. | :25:21. | |
and when I was Justice Secretary, I wanted people to know more, | :25:22. | :25:25. | |
to have more information and knowledge and a greater capacity | :25:26. | :25:29. | |
for critical thinking. You were out campaigning every day | :25:30. | :25:33. | |
after that interview, you could at any point in the days | :25:34. | :25:37. | |
after when I am sure it came up countless times, you could have | :25:38. | :25:41. | |
qualified that remark. Funnily enough it did | :25:42. | :25:47. | |
not come up that often I think it was used particularly | :25:48. | :25:50. | |
afterwards because people felt that the Brexit vote had somehow | :25:51. | :25:57. | |
been a triumph of know My argument is that actually | :25:58. | :25:59. | |
many of those who were making assertions during the campaign | :26:00. | :26:06. | |
on the Remain side where relying on people meekly submitting | :26:07. | :26:08. | |
to authority as though we were still operating in the age | :26:09. | :26:10. | |
of the pre-Reformation Catholic Church, rather | :26:11. | :26:12. | |
than actually making Science writer Matt Ridley believes | :26:13. | :26:14. | |
this greater public scepticism about experts is healthy, | :26:15. | :26:24. | |
the very opposite in fact of the challenge to Enlightenment | :26:25. | :26:27. | |
values others fear. One has to remember | :26:28. | :26:29. | |
about the Enlightenment did consist of challenging the experts, | :26:30. | :26:32. | |
particularly challenging priests and saying you do not | :26:33. | :26:35. | |
have all the answers. People can work out | :26:36. | :26:39. | |
the answers for themselves. It's hard to argue that a more | :26:40. | :26:43. | |
questioning public is a bad thing. But here's the problem, | :26:44. | :26:46. | |
where do we stop? All these people have had experts, | :26:47. | :26:50. | |
oh, we need an expert. Can any layman decide | :26:51. | :26:52. | |
that if the evidence on climate change stacks up, | :26:53. | :27:01. | |
or if vaccines are safe, or whether After seeing their Brexit advice | :27:02. | :27:04. | |
ignored, at least one expert decided to express herself more forcefully | :27:05. | :27:12. | |
in the days after the referendum. Yeah, so I made the decision | :27:13. | :27:15. | |
to spend the day at the University naked, as both an expression | :27:16. | :27:18. | |
of my feelings about the referendum, which is that it's a rather dramatic | :27:19. | :27:27. | |
event and will have dramatic long-term consequences, | :27:28. | :27:31. | |
but at the human level more Victoria attended the monthly | :27:32. | :27:32. | |
faculty meeting wearing only the words "Brexit leaves us naked" | :27:33. | :27:44. | |
scrawled across her torso. For some, the scene might have been | :27:45. | :27:49. | |
a perfect metaphor for our changing The emperor revealed to have | :27:50. | :27:52. | |
been naked all along. So did Michael Gove put his finger | :27:53. | :27:57. | |
on something no one had yet noticed? If only there was an | :27:58. | :28:00. | |
expert we could ask. Well, we have three right here - | :28:01. | :28:13. | |
although maybe they won't Tracey Brown is the Director | :28:14. | :28:15. | |
of Sense and Science - Because Evidence Matters, | :28:16. | :28:19. | |
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the author of Black Swan and Swati Dhingra | :28:20. | :28:22. | |
is an Economist LSE. Nice to have all of you here, I will | :28:23. | :28:38. | |
start with you Nicholas, did JK Galbraith get it right when he said | :28:39. | :28:42. | |
economic forecasting makes astrology look respectable, should it all be | :28:43. | :28:50. | |
left well alone? Well, it's right that in a similar system you should | :28:51. | :28:56. | |
let the system decide for itself, but, let me put some precision here | :28:57. | :29:00. | |
because I've done some work since, the first time I was in your studio | :29:01. | :29:06. | |
was nine years ago where I had to explain that economists were not | :29:07. | :29:10. | |
experts. Since then I have had to refine some of my work, so there are | :29:11. | :29:21. | |
domains where we have experts, we need experts, 99% of the people you | :29:22. | :29:26. | |
will run into tomorrow through evening will be experts, the driver | :29:27. | :29:31. | |
will be an expert at driving, the baker and expert at making bread. | :29:32. | :29:38. | |
And so on. And now technicians, I am in New York, the technology is who | :29:39. | :29:41. | |
are able to make that connection are experts however they are domains | :29:42. | :29:47. | |
where they are not experts and where is the boundary? The boundary | :29:48. | :29:50. | |
appears to be micro versus Micro. There are three boundaries, micro | :29:51. | :29:57. | |
versus macro, in other words someone who deals with smaller fierce, it's | :29:58. | :30:02. | |
much easier to do micro because you're not going to be held to | :30:03. | :30:11. | |
account... Soap economics basically fits as macro? It's too big to get | :30:12. | :30:20. | |
right? That is not true, there are many facts we do know from | :30:21. | :30:25. | |
economics, how does trade work across countries from example and | :30:26. | :30:27. | |
that is what we know from hundreds of data and those are the facts we | :30:28. | :30:32. | |
are bringing to the public and I want to point out two issues in the | :30:33. | :30:36. | |
film, one is that experts and academics are being put in the same | :30:37. | :30:39. | |
category even though we know there are not many THEY TALK OVER EACH | :30:40. | :30:51. | |
OTHER I am talking about academic... Sorry, I don't see you guys here, so | :30:52. | :30:58. | |
I don't know, let me say a couple of things, I was a trader for 20 some | :30:59. | :31:04. | |
years and then I saw, I am not of course in an economic 's department, | :31:05. | :31:09. | |
I do applied maths, then we saw the rigour and economics, it makes me | :31:10. | :31:13. | |
cry, the statistical rigour because you use Gal C and distributions and | :31:14. | :31:19. | |
calcium metrics for things which are repeatedly not them. It's too | :31:20. | :31:24. | |
technical for the audience. I don't know what that means but broadly, is | :31:25. | :31:29. | |
economic forecasting something we should leave alone? | :31:30. | :31:34. | |
Joo economic forecasting, predicting the future, is taking the definition | :31:35. | :31:40. | |
of expertise to its outside edges. Most people in your film and people | :31:41. | :31:43. | |
in the business of looking at the economy recognise that. I really | :31:44. | :31:48. | |
feel we need to say something about this interpretation of what happened | :31:49. | :31:51. | |
in that debate because the referendum has become the reference | :31:52. | :31:54. | |
point for this discussion about expertise. It's a bit a false | :31:55. | :31:59. | |
situation for us to be drawing big conclusions about what people think | :32:00. | :32:05. | |
about experts based on that. I'm deeply suspicious when people make | :32:06. | :32:10. | |
sweeping retorical newerish of an anti-intellectual nature. They | :32:11. | :32:14. | |
usually don't mean let's equip the public with critical thinking. They | :32:15. | :32:18. | |
usually mean believe me don't believe them. That's an interesting | :32:19. | :32:23. | |
point. To go back to you Nicholas, when people reject experts what | :32:24. | :32:26. | |
they're saying is don't believe them, take it from me or another | :32:27. | :32:29. | |
source that I trust. Do you buy that? I definitely buy that. I buy | :32:30. | :32:39. | |
that people in at a microlevel trust some people for their opinion. To | :32:40. | :32:43. | |
build a pyramid at the bottom most people are experts at what they're | :32:44. | :32:47. | |
doing. Awes go up layers, the scaling, as you go higher and higher | :32:48. | :32:51. | |
then you lose in expertise because you can't check the person's | :32:52. | :32:57. | |
results. Eeconomists live in their own little bubble when they're not | :32:58. | :33:02. | |
judged by reality, they're judged by other economists. They can keep | :33:03. | :33:10. | |
being incompetent forever. I mean... Let me tell you... Just let me bring | :33:11. | :33:15. | |
you to one point, is it irresponsible when you hear | :33:16. | :33:19. | |
positions in great, politicians in great positions of power, be it | :33:20. | :33:22. | |
Donald Trump or Michael Gove at the time saying we've had enough of | :33:23. | :33:26. | |
experts or experts are wrong, do you agree that is irresponsible? I mean, | :33:27. | :33:31. | |
the word "expert" can mean a lot of things. Some classes of experts we | :33:32. | :33:34. | |
should dispence with because they've been very dangerous. When I was in | :33:35. | :33:39. | |
your studio nine years ago, talking about economics, it was an expert | :33:40. | :33:42. | |
problem. There is something we call an expert problem. There is an | :33:43. | :33:47. | |
expert problem we just have to train society to distinguish. It's | :33:48. | :33:50. | |
society's fault that we don't explain properly who is an expert. | :33:51. | :33:54. | |
It's not just about explanation. No, it's not. This is about how the | :33:55. | :34:00. | |
debate was portrayed. The same kind of people like Michael Gove was | :34:01. | :34:03. | |
letting their information being misused. They were saying ?350 | :34:04. | :34:07. | |
million per week coming back to the NHS, we haven't seen that happen. | :34:08. | :34:10. | |
Why are only those particular experts who made - It happened on | :34:11. | :34:15. | |
the other side, we all remember them showing, on the Remain side it would | :34:16. | :34:21. | |
cost ?4,300 per family. These specific numbers. Those short-term | :34:22. | :34:27. | |
officials were made by public officials not independent experts. | :34:28. | :34:31. | |
Independent experts made only long-term positions. This wasn't all | :34:32. | :34:36. | |
about you. People were posing all kinds of questions in the | :34:37. | :34:39. | |
referendum. Like I live in Swansea, and my hope for my kids getting a | :34:40. | :34:42. | |
job or going on holiday in the next five years is zero any way. So your | :34:43. | :34:48. | |
national discussion and your national figures and projections are | :34:49. | :34:51. | |
not talking to me. People were posing questions that were political | :34:52. | :34:54. | |
questions. They weren't getting political answers. So, what we've | :34:55. | :34:59. | |
seen is a politicisation of expertise over the recent | :35:00. | :35:02. | |
discussion. Let's not draw grand conclusions. Last year, you could | :35:03. | :35:05. | |
say 2016 was not the year of post-truth. 2016 was the year in | :35:06. | :35:10. | |
which, for example, the Hillsborough families use a mass of expertise and | :35:11. | :35:14. | |
fact finding to hunt for the truth. You don't think it's eroded | :35:15. | :35:19. | |
confidence in experts then? I think there's a bigger question, there is | :35:20. | :35:22. | |
a fracture between the discussion we're having about our national well | :35:23. | :35:27. | |
being, at a national level, with economic contributions and what | :35:28. | :35:31. | |
people's lived lives are like that don't relate to that. There are | :35:32. | :35:35. | |
assumptions there and this has laid them bare. The point about this | :35:36. | :35:40. | |
question was when you talk about not believing experts and when people | :35:41. | :35:45. | |
start to gree with it, does it have a knock-on effect in different | :35:46. | :35:49. | |
fields, whether it's science, climate change, inoculations, all | :35:50. | :35:54. | |
those sorts of things? The biggest danger is the knock-on effect in | :35:55. | :35:57. | |
politics. If we have the belief starting to take hold among our | :35:58. | :36:01. | |
politician that's truthfulness is no longer a public value that people | :36:02. | :36:05. | |
don't expect things to make sense - It doesn't matter what the content | :36:06. | :36:08. | |
or the subject is, it's about the approach to trust? Yeah, it almost | :36:09. | :36:13. | |
becomes subversive. It's like the 50s when it was subversive to talk | :36:14. | :36:17. | |
about homosexuality or abortion rates. It becomes subversive to talk | :36:18. | :36:21. | |
about the facts about something if people think it's not going to play | :36:22. | :36:24. | |
well in one of the national newspapers. Except it's good to | :36:25. | :36:29. | |
question, isn't it? It's good to use common sense and everything we | :36:30. | :36:32. | |
heard. Experts have a great history of helping the public to pose | :36:33. | :36:36. | |
questions about their lives. In the run up to the referendum there was a | :36:37. | :36:40. | |
survey done which showed that people do trust academics. Our ratings were | :36:41. | :36:47. | |
at the level of 57 to 60% and that they trust organisations like the | :36:48. | :36:50. | |
ONS because it gives them fact. It's not as though people don't want the | :36:51. | :36:54. | |
facts. They want the facts. Nicholas, I know you're very | :36:55. | :36:58. | |
respected by Steve Bannon in the Trump administration. Have they come | :36:59. | :37:02. | |
to you with the offer of a job? I will not comment on that. But - Go | :37:03. | :37:09. | |
on, let us entice you gently on Newsnight. OK, let me tell you the | :37:10. | :37:16. | |
one thing that people seem to miss about all this thing that the point | :37:17. | :37:19. | |
isn't so much trusting experts and not trusting experts. The idea is to | :37:20. | :37:25. | |
build systems that are error proof and microsystems are pretty mush | :37:26. | :37:28. | |
error proof because the error doesn't generalise. When you have a | :37:29. | :37:31. | |
concentrated system, as in Brussels, one error can lead to very large | :37:32. | :37:37. | |
conclusions. Maybe the experts were not error free. This is where the | :37:38. | :37:44. | |
discussion should be is how can we build systems that can with stand an | :37:45. | :37:51. | |
expert problem. These systems have one atery bute, they need to be | :37:52. | :37:55. | |
decentralised. Thank you all very much indeed. | :37:56. | :37:57. | |
You'd be excused for thinking that the Oscars this year | :37:58. | :37:59. | |
essentially consisted of one big envelope-related cock-up. | :38:00. | :38:03. | |
Tonight, another missing piece of the jigsaw, as reports surface | :38:04. | :38:05. | |
in the Wall Street Journal that Price Waterhouse Coopers managing | :38:06. | :38:08. | |
partner, Brian Cullinan, was tweeting a backstage picture | :38:09. | :38:12. | |
of Emma Stone moments before that critical moment. | :38:13. | :38:17. | |
A tweet, incidentally, that has now been deleted. | :38:18. | :38:19. | |
But beyond the La La Land/Moonlight fracas, another rather different | :38:20. | :38:23. | |
The White Helmets are a group of civilian rescue workers in Syria. | :38:24. | :38:29. | |
You may even recognise their name from Newsnights over the past | :38:30. | :38:32. | |
few years and a film following their work in Syria, | :38:33. | :38:36. | |
simply titled The White Helmets, won Best Documentary. | :38:37. | :38:40. | |
We spoke to a member of the organisation, Majd Khalaf, | :38:41. | :38:42. | |
This piece contains images from the documentary which some viewers might | :38:43. | :38:50. | |
find upsetting. TRANSLATION: At the moment we | :38:51. | :39:12. | |
receive the news of winning the Oscar, one of our volunteers was | :39:13. | :39:16. | |
pulling a child from underneath the rubble in the city of Idlib. Other | :39:17. | :39:20. | |
volunteers were helping in the suburbs of Damascus. When we started | :39:21. | :39:29. | |
our work with the Civil Defence team, the white helmets, we pledged | :39:30. | :39:32. | |
to help as many civilians as possible. | :39:33. | :39:40. | |
It is an indescribable feeling when we get the call to help, although | :39:41. | :39:46. | |
our job poses a lot of threat on our lives. | :39:47. | :39:52. | |
TRANSLATION: Until now, we have saved 80,000 civilians, but we have | :39:53. | :39:57. | |
also lost 162 of our colleagues because of air strikes. | :39:58. | :40:03. | |
Although we are happy to save lives, we are also living the suffering of | :40:04. | :40:06. | |
the civilians every day. The film was shot in Aleppo, which was | :40:07. | :40:10. | |
considered one of the most dangerous cities in the world. Our colleagues | :40:11. | :40:15. | |
have put their lives on the line to get the message across. | :40:16. | :40:24. | |
The Oscar has shed a light on the suffering of people inside Syria and | :40:25. | :40:31. | |
made their voices heard. It introduced the work of the Civil | :40:32. | :40:35. | |
Defence teams and the difficulties and dangers they face when they | :40:36. | :40:40. | |
respond to calls. It also showed there is a humanitarian work taking | :40:41. | :40:43. | |
place in Syria and not just a Civil War happening. It's true there are | :40:44. | :40:49. | |
people dying and air strikes bombarding civilians, but there are | :40:50. | :40:54. | |
also volunteers who are working to make the people's voices heard. | :40:55. | :41:03. | |
We didn't think we would get to the Oscars or win it. Our message is | :41:04. | :41:15. | |
clear: To stop the air strikes on civilians. | :41:16. | :41:24. | |
We leave you with the The Sony World Photography awards, | :41:25. | :41:28. | |
whose 2017 shortlist will be on show at Somerset House in | :41:29. | :41:30. | |
The actual nominees can only be revealed at midnight tonight, | :41:31. | :41:35. | |
so obviously I'm not allowed to open the envelope and tell | :41:36. | :41:38. | |
After the disaster at the Oscars last night, | :41:39. | :41:42. | |
But here's a peak at a few strong contenders. | :41:43. | :41:46. | |
# I hurt myself today. # To see if I still feel. | :41:47. | :42:18. | |
# I focus on the pain # The only thing that's real | :42:19. | :42:29. | |
# The needle tears a hole # The old familiar sting | :42:30. | :42:40. | |
# Try to kill it all away # But I remember everything. | :42:41. | :42:50. | |
By some definition spring starts this week. It feels wintry at the | :42:51. | :42:55. | |
moment. A cold start to the day. Bright and crisp for some. Showers | :42:56. | :43:00. | |
for others, especially across western areas, snow over high | :43:01. | :43:03. | |
ground. This band of showers moving eastwards across the UK, followed by | :43:04. | :43:06. | |
something brighter for Northern Ireland and certainly plenty of | :43:07. | :43:10. | |
sunshine across central and northern Scotland through the afternoon. | :43:11. | :43:11. | |
Chilly, | :43:12. | :43:13. |