25/04/2017 Newsnight

So, with Labour setting out their approach today,

do we finally have clarity on the difference between the two

Not on hypothetical trade deals with other countries,

but on strong trading arrangements with the EU.

What we've seen today from Labour is, I think,

It's yet another nonsensical Jeremy Corbyn plan.

It all seems to come down to the customs union.

But it won't say so quite that clearly.

And could Labour's "fortress Wales" turn blue?

What's her name, Theresa May, don't mind her.

Oh, I don't like him, don't like him, no.

Also tonight, is Ivanka Trump the most powerful woman here?

We ask the Vanity Fair correspondent who has followed her career.

Absolutely, from my reporting, people who are close to Donald Trump

say there's only one person in the White House who is not

# Happy birthday, dear President #

Is South Africa's governing party on the brink of

Well, there are certainly thousands of people out

on the streets of Pretoria calling on President Zuma to stand down

but the question is whether people power alone is enough,

There are processes within the African National Congress

that will decide whether or not President Zuma's days in power...

# And so say all of us #

Hello, Labour have long been critical of Theresa May's plans

for Brexit, but they've not quite spelled out an alternative.

The shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer gave a speech saying

what his pitch to our EU counterparts would be.

Two, there would be a unilateral clarification of the rights

Three, under Labour, Britain would aim to remain in a number

Erasmus, Euratom, the European Medicines

to remain in the single market and the customs union.

Labour's white paper will have a strong emphasis

on retaining the benefits of the single market and customs

union, vital as they are to protecting our economy.

Our paper will make crystal clear that jobs and the economy

Now does what he said really add up to a different approach to Mrs May?

On the single market, barely, as Labour concedes

So single market membership is unlikely to be on offer.

But staying in the customs union is a possibility.

It's one that might solve a pending problem of congestion

at the port of Dover, and reduce pressure

for a border between the north and south in Ireland.

Or is there still an element of fudge?

We'll ask the shadow Brexit minister shortly.

But first, some political background.

Labour's problem is that its supporters are divided on the EU.

Chris Cook's being looking at new data from the

British Election Study, a huge reliable survey

He's found hints of what Brexit means for votes.

Labour's problem with losing supporters who backed Brexit has

But there's a few important bits of arithmetic worth bearing in mind.

Let's start, as most of these discussions do,

It is true that across the North most people voted Leave.

It is also true that this is a place where Labour is the biggest party.

But it doesn't follow that most Labour voters in the North

In fact, for example, in the north-east, where only 42%

of the public at large voted Remain, 61% of 2015 Labour voters did so.

Nationally, two of every three voters who backed Labour

That's not to say Labour doesn't have a problem in the North, though.

Particularly with that minority of its supporters

Let's look at voters who backed Ed Miliband in 2015

Newly-released British Election Study data from the tail end of last

year shows that only 46% of this group were still backing the party.

10% planned to vote for the Tories, 11% said they were heading for Ukip.

Other parties and nonvoting took the rest.

That is very worrisome for Labour because more recent polling moves

have shown Ukip dropping while the Tories rise.

Now, here are the constituencies currently held by Labour.

Of these there are 67 where the Labour lead is smaller

Not all of them are plausible Tory targets, but a Tory squeeze on those

Ukip voters could be gruesome for Labour.

And direct transfers from Labour Brexiters

to the Tories will make that much, much worse.

What then of those voters who backed Ed Miliband and then voted Remain?

At the end of last year, Labour was doing better with them,

Remember, though, that twice as many of Labour's 2015 supporters

So while Labour lost a larger share of its Leave voters,

overall it has lost more Labour Remainers.

So it is worth paying attention to them.

Especially the 10% of Labour Remainers who last year had

deserted Labour for the Liberal Democrats.

The issue here isn't so much that the Lib Dems

This shift would only flip Cambridge.

But that movement would be very significant in other races.

On its own it would be enough to move 13 Labour

Jeremy Corbyn phrases a uniquely difficult challenge, holding his

party together but remember even in the Brexit friendly North, losing

Remainers will hurt all stop Chris Cook with some of the political

angle. With me now is Paul Blomfield,

shadow minister for Brexit. I'm saying I think that what we got

today is clarity that you would like us to be in the customs union. Am I

over interpreting your position? I don't think you are, what Keir set

out was the desire for the best possible settlement and setting up a

deal within the framework of the customs union is a part of that.

Crucially he said he would put a good deal with the EU above

hypothetical deals with the US, India and these other countries

which implies he would be in for customs union membership because you

would not have any tariffs. That is the logic of what he's saying. It

would be because the EU accounts for about 40% of our exports. It's

interesting how the Tories have focused on the United states,

trumpeting that deal whereas the new administration would like to talk to

the EU first. Liam Fox will tell you that even his scouting around and

they are perhaps thinking about trade deals with lots of countries.

You would say, forget that, it's the EU that's most important? The EU

first and foremost is what is most important to our economy. Why was it

not put more clearly? Why didn't Keir Starmer... Healing it with the

Single Market, why didn't he say that the substantive difference

between the Labour and Conservative approaches to this is that Labour

would like to be in the customs union? Why didn't he say that?

Always this sense of fudging it and not spelling it out. I'm sorry you

say that because I think we've been clear all along. We've said,

differently from the Tories, that what comes first is jobs and the

economy and people's livelihoods. In the earliest stages of the debates

we've had in the house we have talked about membership of the

customs union. But it felt like today we got clarity, Keir Starmer

gave the impression that he was giving us something new today and I

think he was, wasn't he? He was, putting our message together in a

way that reaches out more effectively. A lot of people haven't

understood it. Little of the write-up is, Labour is for the

customs union, we're going to be in it if we vote Labour and yet that is

a serious deference to the Conservatives. It is, but I think we

should be focusing on the outputs and not the mechanisms come in a

sense, and that's what we've said: -- what we've said all along,

getting the best deal for the Tories. You may say that the Tories

are saying that also but we think it comes first in the negotiations. If

the way to achieve that is membership of the customs union, as

a prose to the cavalier way in which the Conservatives have brushed it

off the table... -- as opposed to the cavalier way. You have said that

free movement will end, correct? Yes, because... A tiny bit hesitant!

So many of these complex issues are seen in binary terms. When we leave

the European Union, our whole migration policy will have to be

revisited and that means darting afresh, not only in terms of EU

migration but non-EU migration as well because if we don't, the

economy will crash. Do you have an immigration policy in mind with

respect to EU citizens, or is that something to worry about that later

on? That's something for further down the road. The Single Market,

what's the point in saying you would keep the option of the Single Market

open? You know that it won't be on offer if you come back from free

movement, as you said today. We want the best possible relationship with

the Single Market because it's so important to our economy. What

distinguishes our position is that not only come as you said earlier,

it is seeking a more collaborative relationship with the EU, but we

aren't getting into painting ourselves into corners by taking

things off the table, which is what the Tories are doing, a big mistake.

Lastly, the European Court of Justice, one of Theresa May's red

line, she doesn't want anything that leaves us in it, you are happy with

the European Court of Justice, in certain respects ,, having a say?

For instance: membership of Euratom, we would be subject to the European

Court of Justice? What must be understood, and the Tories are being

very dishonest with the British people, there is no international

trade deal you can do with any country in the world that does not

have a dispute resolution system and the nature of those systems in every

treaty is that they will sit above British courts and the British

Parliament. If you want no trade deals with anybody, you have

sovereignty, otherwise you are going to lose and when you have

international agreements. Thank you for joining us.

We're not going to bang on about polls too much in this campaign.

But the YouGov one putting the Tories ten points ahead

of Labour in Wales - if truly reflecting public opinion -

marks quite a shift in Conservative fortunes.

And Theresa May was campaigning in Bridgend and Newport today,

obviously believing Wales is fertile ground.

David Grossman went to the Labour seat of Wrexham today, to find out.

The empty shops of Hope Street in Wrexham tell their own story.

It is, though, a little more than a decade ago

that the Conservatives' stall was bare.

And yet hope now abounds in the hearts of Welsh Conservatives.

Apart from the briefest dalliance with the SDP back in 1981,

Wrexham has been solidly Labour all the way back to 1935.

And before that was never Conservative.

The fact that it is even considered in play now

for Theresa May and her party hints at a political earthquake.

This would once have been unthinkable.

The idea of the Conservatives defeating the Labour Party in Wales.

Labour have been in some long-term decline, but what seems to be

happening particularly is that Theresa May's cold, calculated,

clinical decision to call an election, focused on Brexit,

is having a particularly strong impact in a nation, Wales,

Within hours of the seismic polling being published,

Theresa May was on her way to South Wales.

A photo opportunity at a galvanising plant first,

insert your own Iron Lady related headline here...

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

Before it was onto a rally in Bridgend to hammer

Every single vote for me and the local Conservative candidate

will be a vote for a stronger Wales, for a stronger United Kingdom.

And as I say, will strengthen my hand in those important

And in Wrexham at least there are voters who will tell

you they're willing to consider voting Conservative

I have been Labour, yeah, but I don't know.

I don't mind what's her name, Theresa May.

There's a lot of unemployment in the area, there's

And I think hopefully the Conservatives could

You don't feel there's an obvious choice?

I do have a choice, I've always been for Labour.

But now, how do you feel about Labour?

Well, I'm not very happy with Jeremy Corbyn.

On Friday, the Labour First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones,

whose administration was re-elected last year, was introducing

Look, we never take anything for granted.

We knew we had to work hard and listen to people.

Hugely important now that Jeremy and his team produces a manifesto

that is going to appeal to the widest number

of people and presents a programme for government.

That says this is what we would do if we were in government.

That is what we did last year and of course it needs to be

Some of the new stores that have opened in Wrexham hint

at the population change this area has seen.

But at this election Ukip's once strong vote in Wales

They have actually done very well in Wales in recent years,

almost winning the European election a couple of years ago.

They now have seven elected members of the Welsh Assembly.

But a lot of their support now seems to be going

Where now they bowl, men once dug coal.

The club and the old pithead wheel are all that survives

What also remains here, though, is a sense of party loyalty.

What do you think at the moment of how the Labour Party is going?

Well, they're in a shambles, aren't they?

Jeremy Corbyn won the leadership, I blame the top Labour

politicians for not getting behind him wholeheartedly.

My dad was a miner and things happened years ago against

When David Miliband went, that is when I think Labour went down.

It wouldn't be enough to get you to change your vote?

Labour, you know, through and through.

Our political editor Nick Watt joins me now.

The writing of the manifesto, you have some news on that. I'm hearing

the sounds of piece between the warring factions of the Labour

Party. I'm told the so-called senior moderates who do not accept the

leadership of Jeremy Corbyn are saying he should largely have his

way on the Labour manifesto and when Labour holds a meeting to agree the

manifesto on the 11th of May they're saying they will table just one red

line which is the Labour Party needs to stand by its official commitment

to support the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent. Beyond

that they are saying there should be some strong Jeremy Corbyn language

on the need for defence diversification, redeploying jobs

away from the nuclear weapons industry if there are successful

disarmament talks. And then they're saying in every other area, Jeremy

Corbyn should be allowed to paint his vision for the UK in primary

colours. These moderates would deny this, this sounds very much to me

that they are jolly keen that Jeremy Corbyn should own the Labour Party

results on Friday the 9th of June. What about the Conservatives?

They're planning to launch the manifesto in the week beginning the

8th of May the week before the Labour Party does so. Their

manifesto is going to be broadbrush, a bit like that of Margaret Thatcher

from 1979. But specific commitments on Brexit so Theresa May can uphold

her mandate if she gets it. But interestingly it is the Labour Party

that has put into its general election planning grid are rumoured

Tory offensive. They believe that in the final phase of the campaign the

Tories under Lynton Crosby will launch an aggressive campaign

reminding the British people of Jeremy Corbyn and his support for

Sinn Fein, crucially before the Northern Ireland piece process

began. It is interesting that some senior Tories are expecting this to

happen but others are saying why bother.

We'll return to domestic politics later in the programme -

but first, South Africa is starting to get fed up with

Hundreds of corruption charges could be reinstated against him,

the constitutional court has censured him for breaking his oath

of office over lavish spending of taxpayers' money on his private

home, and now another vote of no confidence is coming.

He's been accused of many things, but what brought the people out

on the streets was the sacking of his well-respected

finance minister - a decision which pushed

the country's investment grade into junk status.

BBC Africa correspondent Alastair Leithead reports

on whether this could be a turning point for South Africa -

The African National Congress seems neither in tune

Those celebrating Jacob Zuma's 75th birthday in Soweto were at least

One of unwavering loyalty despite discordant times in South Africa.

Thank you, Comrade President, for the dignity you have shown

in the face of many, many years of being insulted for

And what President Zuma stands for is what's in question.

It's either the poor and unemployed masses, or himself

But he's danced it all off before and he may well

dance it all off again, despite what others think.

A different birthday message in Pretoria as his political rivals

took to the streets, unusually united in opposition.

He has somehow formed a scheme to loot from the country.

We are sick and tired of his corruption,

I don't know about the other protesters, but we are tired of him.

The path to mass protest has been paved by scandal.

They are invigorated by the possible reinstatement of more than 780

There is anger over lavish taxpayer funded improvements

And there is frustration at what is known here as state

capture, the undue political influence of the wealthy

But it was the sacking of the much respected finance minister that

brought these crowds out onto the streets.

I think it was an act of economic and political self-destruction

and it has shown that Zuma is intent on taking hold of the country,

taking hold of the Treasury, and using it as his private press.

Well there are certainly thousands of people out

on the streets of Pretoria calling on President Zuma to stand down.

But the question is whether people power alone is enough,

There are processes within the African National Congress

that will decide whether or not President Zuma stays in power.

They appear to be closing ranks and protecting him.

No more so than out in rural KwaZulu-Natal, where you don't hear

complaints about the party, or any demands for its executive

He's from here, built strong patronage networks here,

Those who said he must step down, no.

What about all the corruption scandals, the way the value

of the currency has dropped since he came to government?

This area is a big constituency of the ANC, a stronghold of the ANC.

To us he's an innocent man, he is a champion for economic

President Zuma represents the majority of the people of this

country who remain in poverty, we believe he is our champion

is going to be able to uplift us from property.

You could argue corruption all you want.

But these people know that this government

has given them houses, there are roads, there is water.

Something that the apartheid government did not do for them.

Let's deal with the economy and take it back to the hands of the people.

Let's take back the land and give it back to its rightful owners.

But as it was in Zimbabwe, it is also a populist narrative,

adopted by President Zuma along with blaming white racism.

It is clear that some of our white compatriots regard black people

The reason that Zuma is playing the race card and also talking

about land reform and radical economic transformation

Jonathan Shapiro is South Africa's most famous cartoonist.

He recently portrayed the country about to be raped by one

of the Gupta brothers, who are resented for

Encouraged by Jacob Zuma and his cronies.

The fact that I can sit and do this kind of thing and be this critical,

even if I've got lawsuits from the president, if he can try

and smear me and I can still come through that and do this,

I feel much luckier than a lot of people,

not only in other parts of Africa, but in other parts of the world.

This cartoon shows former president Kgalema Motlanthe giving a voice

from beyond the grave to one of the great anti-apartheid heroes.

It's exactly what happened at Ahmed Kathrada's funeral.

The great and the good were there, but not Jacob Zuma.

That was the last request of the man whose letter calling

on the president to resign was read out.

You will choose the correct way that is gaining momentum

Not everyone was cheering, but many were.

This was the defining moment as the old guard

The gracious thing for him to do right now is to be asked to be

As anti-apartheid hero Walter Sisulu's daughter-in-law,

she is one of the ANC struggle stalwarts.

Is Jacob Zuma corrupt, and/or has he corrupted the country?

Whether it is the authority of the government at national level,

in the provinces, in local government, it has become endemic.

Its senior members again backing President Zuma for the sake

Jacob Zuma will be replaced as ANC leader in December

and as president in 2019, unless another vote

of no-confidence passage through Parliament next month.

So may say all of them, but the voices of support are wavering.

The ANC is losing its share of the vote.

The currency and the economy are suffering.

As are the very people the ANC fought apartheid to try and help.

Ivanka Trump shared a platform in Berlin today with some

It was an empowering women conference, and Ivanka herself

She is Assistant to the President of the United States,

Her husband is also a senior advisor.

Inevitably, at the conference today, she had to talk about her father,

who's not always seen as an empowerer of women.

I've certainly heard the criticism from the media and that's been

perpetuated but I know from personal experience and I think the thousands

of women who have worked with and for my father for decades

when he was in the private sector are testament to his belief

and solid conviction in the potential of women

and their ability to do the job as well as any man.

I think in my personal experience, you're asking me about my role

As a daughter I can also speak on a very personal level,

knowing that he encouraged me and enabled me to thrive.

But how significant a figure is she within the administration -

and what more can we expect from her?

I spoke a little earlier to Vanity Fair journalist

Sarah Ellison in New York - she is one of America's best-known

Ivanka-watchers and has spent the last two years

I started by asking her what she thought of Ivanka's

I think Ivanka is very poised, she always looks great and prevents

herself in a very together way that people find impressive. She carries

herself well in terms of the optics of the stage and the people she was

surrounded with. Does she find it difficult to defend her father?

Wherever she goes, people must say things about her dad. I think she's

very effective at deflecting criticism of her father and changing

the conversation. She did, as she often does, target the media, saying

she had heard those criticisms about her father. She remained calm,

talking about her personal experience with her father, which

she does frequently, she did on the campaign trail and continues to do.

She talks about how her father was good for the women that he worked

with in the private sector and how politics is politics. She didn't

explicitly say it but she said that politics is a difficult game and the

rules are different. She has become hardened to these criticisms of her

father and she has become effective at deflecting them. Tell us about

her role in the White House. A lot of people would like to think of a

picture of her politics being at odds with her father's. She has

flirted with the Democrats in the past. Do you think she is a

tempering influence on him? How is it working? Her father has also

flirted with the Democrats so his politics are not as clear as some

may think. In some quarters in the US people love the idea of Ivanka

getting in his ear because he doesn't have a very well-defined

political ideology so they think of Ivanka, who is identified with many

courses that are close to the Democrats, that she can influence

him. Of course no one knows what goes on behind closed doors. What we

know about Ivanka is that she has been expert at speaking out on the

issues that she says she cares about: women in families, women in

the workplace. She has a lot to say about that. She has nothing to say

on the border wall with Mexico, nothing to say on the more explosive

issues that her father has brought forward. What she's doing I think is

distancing herself silently in that she doesn't want to be embroiled in

these debates. What you're describing, though, her role in the

White House, is how we may think of the first lady, the wife of the

president rather than the daughter. What is the relationship of her with

Melania Trump and do you think she sees herself and Donald Trump sees

her basically as serving the first Lady role? None of them would say

that and in fact Ivanka has been asked that specifically and she's

said there's only one first lady and that she is a daughter. She says

those things. Now, in reality, Melania Trump still lives in York,

we've seen reports that she will move to Washington but that hasn't

happened. Ivanka is more present in Washington at events with her father

than Melania has-been. The relationship is interesting, Melania

is about 13 years older than Ivanka and Ivanka is about 13 years older

than her half sister Tiffany so she occupies this place in the family

where she is the favourite child, even her brothers admit that. In

interviews they've talked about that. She's laughed it off. From my

reporting, people close to Donald Trump say that there's only one

person in the White House who isn't expandable and its Ivanka Trump.

She's been with him all of her professional life so this is a very

natural relationship, they work together well, he trusts her. He

doesn't trust people easily. The challenge is for her to translate

that relationship to the international audience and national

audience in a way that makes sense to the rest of us. Thank you for

joining us. You too, thank you. Time for Viewsnight now -

and in the run up to the election we are going to do things

a little differently. We want to stir the policy pot

a little during the campaign, so the Views in Viewsnight will be

in the form of specific ideas for the political

parties to take or leave. First up is David Cameron's

former policy chief Only last year, she was

working in Downing Street. And she has clearly come to the view

that something needs to be done - even if it is not very instinctively

Conservative. I'm joined to discuss

this by Lord Warner, former Labour health minister

and now an independent peer, and Niall Dickson -

the chief executive of the NHS Do you like the enteric since tax

idea? It's not a bad idea, getting money after death for care, but it

isn't delivering the bacon in terms of funding for social care. 500,000

deaths per year and under 5% of them will pay inheritance tax so

something dramatic would have to be done, way beyond what Camilla is

talking about. 2 billion has been cut, I think. We need 2.5, 3 billion

up to 2020, to plug the gap that's been created. If you look at what

goes on, the demography up until 2035, you need 2.5% new money each

year, all the way for 15 years. Inheritance tax, a death tax, good

idea? We need something to bring the money in and I almost think that

Camilla underestimated what we are facing. At the moment we are talking

about one in eight elderly people in England not getting the services

that they need. These individuals are suffering. We have a health care

system that is under enormous pressure. There has to be something

done in terms of, as Norman says, the immediate but the longer term

issue is that we will see a doubling of the over 85s. Politicians must

face up to this, it is a moment to reflect on something serious that

must be dealt with. But you talk to them, as chief lobbyist for the NHS.

Are they taking it seriously? The next two weeks is the best chance

we've got, Wendy two parties are going to be writing their

manifestos. -- when the two parties. Will there be something in it? We

will wait and see. Fed to say that the Prime Minister has nailed her

colours to the mast by saying she will deal with social care, a

promise that has been made by previous administrations but I'm

told she is deadly serious. It is going to cost money now, and the

government put more money in the budget and it will cost a lot more

going forward. Some can be raised with taxation from individuals but

over a period of time we should be linking it to the GDP level, we

should be putting health and care together because care tends to lag

behind health. Health suffers because care is not properly funded.

Do you like the idea of a hype of the K to tax, a tax that will go to

social care? We look at this on the select committee on NHS

sustainability. It's clear that people don't trust politicians any

more in terms of taxation so I think you're going to have to look at a

stream of revenue for social care, at the least, which is clearly

defined and that's what they've done in Japan and Germany. They haven't

ditched general taxation but they have top it up by having effectively

this kind of tax for long-term care. I think we've got to start thinking

in those terms if we want the stream of revenue to be adequate. What

about nontax solutions? What about the of insurance that would take you

to a cap in state pay? The German and Japanese systems are a real

fund, is different to a tax where the government says it is for a

particular thing. This is building up over time, something we haven't

done. What about private savings, insurance? Could you ask me at age

40 to start putting money into a savings plan? That's what the

Japanese are doing. People may prefer that if they have their name

on it rather than taxing someone. I don't think we should just copy the

Japanese but we should learn from other countries. They started to get

people... They haven't ditched general taxation, they've top it up

and that's where we've got to be more creative. You can't go on using

general taxation, I don't think, because you must raise it to

unacceptable levels. Thank you for joining us.

That's all we have time for - I'll be back in this seat tomorrow.

A lot going on in the election campaign, Boris Johnson giving a

speech on foreign policy in the evening.