25/04/2017 Newsnight


25/04/2017

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis.


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Transcript


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So, with Labour setting out their approach today,

:00:00.:00:10.

do we finally have clarity on the difference between the two

:00:11.:00:13.

Not on hypothetical trade deals with other countries,

:00:14.:00:26.

but on strong trading arrangements with the EU.

:00:27.:00:28.

What we've seen today from Labour is, I think,

:00:29.:00:31.

It's yet another nonsensical Jeremy Corbyn plan.

:00:32.:00:37.

It all seems to come down to the customs union.

:00:38.:00:40.

But it won't say so quite that clearly.

:00:41.:00:44.

And could Labour's "fortress Wales" turn blue?

:00:45.:00:52.

What's her name, Theresa May, don't mind her.

:00:53.:00:57.

Oh, I don't like him, don't like him, no.

:00:58.:01:09.

Also tonight, is Ivanka Trump the most powerful woman here?

:01:10.:01:12.

We ask the Vanity Fair correspondent who has followed her career.

:01:13.:01:15.

Absolutely, from my reporting, people who are close to Donald Trump

:01:16.:01:19.

say there's only one person in the White House who is not

:01:20.:01:22.

# Happy birthday, dear President #

:01:23.:01:36.

Is South Africa's governing party on the brink of

:01:37.:01:38.

Well, there are certainly thousands of people out

:01:39.:01:41.

on the streets of Pretoria calling on President Zuma to stand down

:01:42.:01:44.

but the question is whether people power alone is enough,

:01:45.:01:47.

There are processes within the African National Congress

:01:48.:01:50.

that will decide whether or not President Zuma's days in power...

:01:51.:02:01.

# And so say all of us #

:02:02.:02:09.

Hello, Labour have long been critical of Theresa May's plans

:02:10.:02:13.

for Brexit, but they've not quite spelled out an alternative.

:02:14.:02:16.

The shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer gave a speech saying

:02:17.:02:21.

what his pitch to our EU counterparts would be.

:02:22.:02:24.

Two, there would be a unilateral clarification of the rights

:02:25.:02:36.

Three, under Labour, Britain would aim to remain in a number

:02:37.:02:42.

Erasmus, Euratom, the European Medicines

:02:43.:02:44.

to remain in the single market and the customs union.

:02:45.:02:57.

Labour's white paper will have a strong emphasis

:02:58.:02:59.

on retaining the benefits of the single market and customs

:03:00.:03:02.

union, vital as they are to protecting our economy.

:03:03.:03:07.

Our paper will make crystal clear that jobs and the economy

:03:08.:03:11.

Now does what he said really add up to a different approach to Mrs May?

:03:12.:03:28.

On the single market, barely, as Labour concedes

:03:29.:03:30.

So single market membership is unlikely to be on offer.

:03:31.:03:33.

But staying in the customs union is a possibility.

:03:34.:03:36.

It's one that might solve a pending problem of congestion

:03:37.:03:38.

at the port of Dover, and reduce pressure

:03:39.:03:40.

for a border between the north and south in Ireland.

:03:41.:03:43.

Or is there still an element of fudge?

:03:44.:03:46.

We'll ask the shadow Brexit minister shortly.

:03:47.:03:49.

But first, some political background.

:03:50.:03:51.

Labour's problem is that its supporters are divided on the EU.

:03:52.:03:54.

Chris Cook's being looking at new data from the

:03:55.:03:57.

British Election Study, a huge reliable survey

:03:58.:04:00.

He's found hints of what Brexit means for votes.

:04:01.:04:08.

Labour's problem with losing supporters who backed Brexit has

:04:09.:04:13.

But there's a few important bits of arithmetic worth bearing in mind.

:04:14.:04:19.

Let's start, as most of these discussions do,

:04:20.:04:22.

It is true that across the North most people voted Leave.

:04:23.:04:30.

It is also true that this is a place where Labour is the biggest party.

:04:31.:04:37.

But it doesn't follow that most Labour voters in the North

:04:38.:04:40.

In fact, for example, in the north-east, where only 42%

:04:41.:04:47.

of the public at large voted Remain, 61% of 2015 Labour voters did so.

:04:48.:04:52.

Nationally, two of every three voters who backed Labour

:04:53.:04:55.

That's not to say Labour doesn't have a problem in the North, though.

:04:56.:05:03.

Particularly with that minority of its supporters

:05:04.:05:05.

Let's look at voters who backed Ed Miliband in 2015

:05:06.:05:10.

Newly-released British Election Study data from the tail end of last

:05:11.:05:19.

year shows that only 46% of this group were still backing the party.

:05:20.:05:23.

10% planned to vote for the Tories, 11% said they were heading for Ukip.

:05:24.:05:27.

Other parties and nonvoting took the rest.

:05:28.:05:38.

That is very worrisome for Labour because more recent polling moves

:05:39.:05:41.

have shown Ukip dropping while the Tories rise.

:05:42.:05:44.

Now, here are the constituencies currently held by Labour.

:05:45.:05:51.

Of these there are 67 where the Labour lead is smaller

:05:52.:05:54.

Not all of them are plausible Tory targets, but a Tory squeeze on those

:05:55.:05:59.

Ukip voters could be gruesome for Labour.

:06:00.:06:01.

And direct transfers from Labour Brexiters

:06:02.:06:05.

to the Tories will make that much, much worse.

:06:06.:06:12.

What then of those voters who backed Ed Miliband and then voted Remain?

:06:13.:06:15.

At the end of last year, Labour was doing better with them,

:06:16.:06:18.

Remember, though, that twice as many of Labour's 2015 supporters

:06:19.:06:23.

So while Labour lost a larger share of its Leave voters,

:06:24.:06:28.

overall it has lost more Labour Remainers.

:06:29.:06:32.

So it is worth paying attention to them.

:06:33.:06:36.

Especially the 10% of Labour Remainers who last year had

:06:37.:06:39.

deserted Labour for the Liberal Democrats.

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The issue here isn't so much that the Lib Dems

:06:43.:06:48.

This shift would only flip Cambridge.

:06:49.:06:51.

But that movement would be very significant in other races.

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On its own it would be enough to move 13 Labour

:06:54.:06:56.

Jeremy Corbyn phrases a uniquely difficult challenge, holding his

:06:57.:07:07.

party together but remember even in the Brexit friendly North, losing

:07:08.:07:15.

Remainers will hurt all stop Chris Cook with some of the political

:07:16.:07:17.

angle. With me now is Paul Blomfield,

:07:18.:07:19.

shadow minister for Brexit. I'm saying I think that what we got

:07:20.:07:30.

today is clarity that you would like us to be in the customs union. Am I

:07:31.:07:36.

over interpreting your position? I don't think you are, what Keir set

:07:37.:07:42.

out was the desire for the best possible settlement and setting up a

:07:43.:07:45.

deal within the framework of the customs union is a part of that.

:07:46.:07:50.

Crucially he said he would put a good deal with the EU above

:07:51.:07:54.

hypothetical deals with the US, India and these other countries

:07:55.:08:00.

which implies he would be in for customs union membership because you

:08:01.:08:06.

would not have any tariffs. That is the logic of what he's saying. It

:08:07.:08:13.

would be because the EU accounts for about 40% of our exports. It's

:08:14.:08:16.

interesting how the Tories have focused on the United states,

:08:17.:08:25.

trumpeting that deal whereas the new administration would like to talk to

:08:26.:08:29.

the EU first. Liam Fox will tell you that even his scouting around and

:08:30.:08:36.

they are perhaps thinking about trade deals with lots of countries.

:08:37.:08:41.

You would say, forget that, it's the EU that's most important? The EU

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first and foremost is what is most important to our economy. Why was it

:08:47.:08:51.

not put more clearly? Why didn't Keir Starmer... Healing it with the

:08:52.:08:58.

Single Market, why didn't he say that the substantive difference

:08:59.:09:01.

between the Labour and Conservative approaches to this is that Labour

:09:02.:09:03.

would like to be in the customs union? Why didn't he say that?

:09:04.:09:14.

Always this sense of fudging it and not spelling it out. I'm sorry you

:09:15.:09:18.

say that because I think we've been clear all along. We've said,

:09:19.:09:23.

differently from the Tories, that what comes first is jobs and the

:09:24.:09:28.

economy and people's livelihoods. In the earliest stages of the debates

:09:29.:09:32.

we've had in the house we have talked about membership of the

:09:33.:09:35.

customs union. But it felt like today we got clarity, Keir Starmer

:09:36.:09:41.

gave the impression that he was giving us something new today and I

:09:42.:09:46.

think he was, wasn't he? He was, putting our message together in a

:09:47.:09:49.

way that reaches out more effectively. A lot of people haven't

:09:50.:09:57.

understood it. Little of the write-up is, Labour is for the

:09:58.:10:00.

customs union, we're going to be in it if we vote Labour and yet that is

:10:01.:10:06.

a serious deference to the Conservatives. It is, but I think we

:10:07.:10:12.

should be focusing on the outputs and not the mechanisms come in a

:10:13.:10:18.

sense, and that's what we've said: -- what we've said all along,

:10:19.:10:21.

getting the best deal for the Tories. You may say that the Tories

:10:22.:10:25.

are saying that also but we think it comes first in the negotiations. If

:10:26.:10:29.

the way to achieve that is membership of the customs union, as

:10:30.:10:34.

a prose to the cavalier way in which the Conservatives have brushed it

:10:35.:10:39.

off the table... -- as opposed to the cavalier way. You have said that

:10:40.:10:49.

free movement will end, correct? Yes, because... A tiny bit hesitant!

:10:50.:10:55.

So many of these complex issues are seen in binary terms. When we leave

:10:56.:11:00.

the European Union, our whole migration policy will have to be

:11:01.:11:04.

revisited and that means darting afresh, not only in terms of EU

:11:05.:11:09.

migration but non-EU migration as well because if we don't, the

:11:10.:11:13.

economy will crash. Do you have an immigration policy in mind with

:11:14.:11:18.

respect to EU citizens, or is that something to worry about that later

:11:19.:11:22.

on? That's something for further down the road. The Single Market,

:11:23.:11:29.

what's the point in saying you would keep the option of the Single Market

:11:30.:11:35.

open? You know that it won't be on offer if you come back from free

:11:36.:11:40.

movement, as you said today. We want the best possible relationship with

:11:41.:11:43.

the Single Market because it's so important to our economy. What

:11:44.:11:47.

distinguishes our position is that not only come as you said earlier,

:11:48.:11:53.

it is seeking a more collaborative relationship with the EU, but we

:11:54.:11:58.

aren't getting into painting ourselves into corners by taking

:11:59.:12:02.

things off the table, which is what the Tories are doing, a big mistake.

:12:03.:12:08.

Lastly, the European Court of Justice, one of Theresa May's red

:12:09.:12:11.

line, she doesn't want anything that leaves us in it, you are happy with

:12:12.:12:15.

the European Court of Justice, in certain respects ,, having a say?

:12:16.:12:23.

For instance: membership of Euratom, we would be subject to the European

:12:24.:12:30.

Court of Justice? What must be understood, and the Tories are being

:12:31.:12:33.

very dishonest with the British people, there is no international

:12:34.:12:35.

trade deal you can do with any country in the world that does not

:12:36.:12:40.

have a dispute resolution system and the nature of those systems in every

:12:41.:12:44.

treaty is that they will sit above British courts and the British

:12:45.:12:47.

Parliament. If you want no trade deals with anybody, you have

:12:48.:12:51.

sovereignty, otherwise you are going to lose and when you have

:12:52.:12:54.

international agreements. Thank you for joining us.

:12:55.:12:56.

We're not going to bang on about polls too much in this campaign.

:12:57.:12:59.

But the YouGov one putting the Tories ten points ahead

:13:00.:13:03.

of Labour in Wales - if truly reflecting public opinion -

:13:04.:13:05.

marks quite a shift in Conservative fortunes.

:13:06.:13:08.

And Theresa May was campaigning in Bridgend and Newport today,

:13:09.:13:10.

obviously believing Wales is fertile ground.

:13:11.:13:12.

David Grossman went to the Labour seat of Wrexham today, to find out.

:13:13.:13:22.

The empty shops of Hope Street in Wrexham tell their own story.

:13:23.:13:27.

It is, though, a little more than a decade ago

:13:28.:13:40.

that the Conservatives' stall was bare.

:13:41.:13:42.

And yet hope now abounds in the hearts of Welsh Conservatives.

:13:43.:13:48.

Apart from the briefest dalliance with the SDP back in 1981,

:13:49.:13:51.

Wrexham has been solidly Labour all the way back to 1935.

:13:52.:13:54.

And before that was never Conservative.

:13:55.:13:55.

The fact that it is even considered in play now

:13:56.:13:57.

for Theresa May and her party hints at a political earthquake.

:13:58.:14:00.

This would once have been unthinkable.

:14:01.:14:02.

The idea of the Conservatives defeating the Labour Party in Wales.

:14:03.:14:04.

Labour have been in some long-term decline, but what seems to be

:14:05.:14:07.

happening particularly is that Theresa May's cold, calculated,

:14:08.:14:11.

clinical decision to call an election, focused on Brexit,

:14:12.:14:16.

is having a particularly strong impact in a nation, Wales,

:14:17.:14:19.

Within hours of the seismic polling being published,

:14:20.:14:24.

Theresa May was on her way to South Wales.

:14:25.:14:29.

A photo opportunity at a galvanising plant first,

:14:30.:14:32.

insert your own Iron Lady related headline here...

:14:33.:14:34.

The Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

:14:35.:14:36.

Before it was onto a rally in Bridgend to hammer

:14:37.:14:39.

Every single vote for me and the local Conservative candidate

:14:40.:14:47.

will be a vote for a stronger Wales, for a stronger United Kingdom.

:14:48.:14:52.

And as I say, will strengthen my hand in those important

:14:53.:14:54.

And in Wrexham at least there are voters who will tell

:14:55.:15:01.

you they're willing to consider voting Conservative

:15:02.:15:03.

I have been Labour, yeah, but I don't know.

:15:04.:15:09.

I don't mind what's her name, Theresa May.

:15:10.:15:11.

There's a lot of unemployment in the area, there's

:15:12.:15:27.

And I think hopefully the Conservatives could

:15:28.:15:31.

You don't feel there's an obvious choice?

:15:32.:15:40.

I do have a choice, I've always been for Labour.

:15:41.:15:42.

But now, how do you feel about Labour?

:15:43.:15:44.

Well, I'm not very happy with Jeremy Corbyn.

:15:45.:15:49.

On Friday, the Labour First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones,

:15:50.:15:52.

whose administration was re-elected last year, was introducing

:15:53.:15:55.

Look, we never take anything for granted.

:15:56.:16:03.

We knew we had to work hard and listen to people.

:16:04.:16:08.

Hugely important now that Jeremy and his team produces a manifesto

:16:09.:16:10.

that is going to appeal to the widest number

:16:11.:16:13.

of people and presents a programme for government.

:16:14.:16:20.

That says this is what we would do if we were in government.

:16:21.:16:23.

That is what we did last year and of course it needs to be

:16:24.:16:26.

Some of the new stores that have opened in Wrexham hint

:16:27.:16:30.

at the population change this area has seen.

:16:31.:16:32.

But at this election Ukip's once strong vote in Wales

:16:33.:16:36.

They have actually done very well in Wales in recent years,

:16:37.:16:39.

almost winning the European election a couple of years ago.

:16:40.:16:42.

They now have seven elected members of the Welsh Assembly.

:16:43.:16:44.

But a lot of their support now seems to be going

:16:45.:16:47.

Where now they bowl, men once dug coal.

:16:48.:16:54.

The club and the old pithead wheel are all that survives

:16:55.:16:57.

What also remains here, though, is a sense of party loyalty.

:16:58.:17:05.

What do you think at the moment of how the Labour Party is going?

:17:06.:17:08.

Well, they're in a shambles, aren't they?

:17:09.:17:12.

Jeremy Corbyn won the leadership, I blame the top Labour

:17:13.:17:14.

politicians for not getting behind him wholeheartedly.

:17:15.:17:16.

My dad was a miner and things happened years ago against

:17:17.:17:23.

When David Miliband went, that is when I think Labour went down.

:17:24.:17:31.

It wouldn't be enough to get you to change your vote?

:17:32.:17:39.

Labour, you know, through and through.

:17:40.:17:43.

Our political editor Nick Watt joins me now.

:17:44.:18:04.

The writing of the manifesto, you have some news on that. I'm hearing

:18:05.:18:11.

the sounds of piece between the warring factions of the Labour

:18:12.:18:15.

Party. I'm told the so-called senior moderates who do not accept the

:18:16.:18:19.

leadership of Jeremy Corbyn are saying he should largely have his

:18:20.:18:23.

way on the Labour manifesto and when Labour holds a meeting to agree the

:18:24.:18:27.

manifesto on the 11th of May they're saying they will table just one red

:18:28.:18:32.

line which is the Labour Party needs to stand by its official commitment

:18:33.:18:36.

to support the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent. Beyond

:18:37.:18:41.

that they are saying there should be some strong Jeremy Corbyn language

:18:42.:18:46.

on the need for defence diversification, redeploying jobs

:18:47.:18:50.

away from the nuclear weapons industry if there are successful

:18:51.:18:55.

disarmament talks. And then they're saying in every other area, Jeremy

:18:56.:18:58.

Corbyn should be allowed to paint his vision for the UK in primary

:18:59.:19:04.

colours. These moderates would deny this, this sounds very much to me

:19:05.:19:08.

that they are jolly keen that Jeremy Corbyn should own the Labour Party

:19:09.:19:14.

results on Friday the 9th of June. What about the Conservatives?

:19:15.:19:18.

They're planning to launch the manifesto in the week beginning the

:19:19.:19:22.

8th of May the week before the Labour Party does so. Their

:19:23.:19:26.

manifesto is going to be broadbrush, a bit like that of Margaret Thatcher

:19:27.:19:32.

from 1979. But specific commitments on Brexit so Theresa May can uphold

:19:33.:19:37.

her mandate if she gets it. But interestingly it is the Labour Party

:19:38.:19:40.

that has put into its general election planning grid are rumoured

:19:41.:19:45.

Tory offensive. They believe that in the final phase of the campaign the

:19:46.:19:50.

Tories under Lynton Crosby will launch an aggressive campaign

:19:51.:19:54.

reminding the British people of Jeremy Corbyn and his support for

:19:55.:19:58.

Sinn Fein, crucially before the Northern Ireland piece process

:19:59.:20:01.

began. It is interesting that some senior Tories are expecting this to

:20:02.:20:04.

happen but others are saying why bother.

:20:05.:20:06.

We'll return to domestic politics later in the programme -

:20:07.:20:12.

but first, South Africa is starting to get fed up with

:20:13.:20:15.

Hundreds of corruption charges could be reinstated against him,

:20:16.:20:18.

the constitutional court has censured him for breaking his oath

:20:19.:20:21.

of office over lavish spending of taxpayers' money on his private

:20:22.:20:24.

home, and now another vote of no confidence is coming.

:20:25.:20:27.

He's been accused of many things, but what brought the people out

:20:28.:20:30.

on the streets was the sacking of his well-respected

:20:31.:20:32.

finance minister - a decision which pushed

:20:33.:20:35.

the country's investment grade into junk status.

:20:36.:20:39.

BBC Africa correspondent Alastair Leithead reports

:20:40.:20:41.

on whether this could be a turning point for South Africa -

:20:42.:20:44.

The African National Congress seems neither in tune

:20:45.:21:02.

Those celebrating Jacob Zuma's 75th birthday in Soweto were at least

:21:03.:21:11.

One of unwavering loyalty despite discordant times in South Africa.

:21:12.:21:25.

Thank you, Comrade President, for the dignity you have shown

:21:26.:21:27.

in the face of many, many years of being insulted for

:21:28.:21:30.

And what President Zuma stands for is what's in question.

:21:31.:21:43.

It's either the poor and unemployed masses, or himself

:21:44.:21:46.

But he's danced it all off before and he may well

:21:47.:21:54.

dance it all off again, despite what others think.

:21:55.:22:01.

A different birthday message in Pretoria as his political rivals

:22:02.:22:04.

took to the streets, unusually united in opposition.

:22:05.:22:09.

He has somehow formed a scheme to loot from the country.

:22:10.:22:13.

We are sick and tired of his corruption,

:22:14.:22:16.

I don't know about the other protesters, but we are tired of him.

:22:17.:22:21.

The path to mass protest has been paved by scandal.

:22:22.:22:26.

They are invigorated by the possible reinstatement of more than 780

:22:27.:22:29.

There is anger over lavish taxpayer funded improvements

:22:30.:22:36.

And there is frustration at what is known here as state

:22:37.:22:42.

capture, the undue political influence of the wealthy

:22:43.:22:44.

But it was the sacking of the much respected finance minister that

:22:45.:22:51.

brought these crowds out onto the streets.

:22:52.:22:58.

I think it was an act of economic and political self-destruction

:22:59.:23:02.

and it has shown that Zuma is intent on taking hold of the country,

:23:03.:23:06.

taking hold of the Treasury, and using it as his private press.

:23:07.:23:17.

Well there are certainly thousands of people out

:23:18.:23:19.

on the streets of Pretoria calling on President Zuma to stand down.

:23:20.:23:21.

But the question is whether people power alone is enough,

:23:22.:23:24.

There are processes within the African National Congress

:23:25.:23:27.

that will decide whether or not President Zuma stays in power.

:23:28.:23:29.

They appear to be closing ranks and protecting him.

:23:30.:23:32.

No more so than out in rural KwaZulu-Natal, where you don't hear

:23:33.:23:35.

complaints about the party, or any demands for its executive

:23:36.:23:38.

He's from here, built strong patronage networks here,

:23:39.:23:47.

Those who said he must step down, no.

:23:48.:23:52.

What about all the corruption scandals, the way the value

:23:53.:23:55.

of the currency has dropped since he came to government?

:23:56.:23:59.

This area is a big constituency of the ANC, a stronghold of the ANC.

:24:00.:24:15.

To us he's an innocent man, he is a champion for economic

:24:16.:24:18.

President Zuma represents the majority of the people of this

:24:19.:24:22.

country who remain in poverty, we believe he is our champion

:24:23.:24:24.

is going to be able to uplift us from property.

:24:25.:24:26.

You could argue corruption all you want.

:24:27.:24:28.

But these people know that this government

:24:29.:24:30.

has given them houses, there are roads, there is water.

:24:31.:24:32.

Something that the apartheid government did not do for them.

:24:33.:24:35.

Let's deal with the economy and take it back to the hands of the people.

:24:36.:24:38.

Let's take back the land and give it back to its rightful owners.

:24:39.:24:41.

But as it was in Zimbabwe, it is also a populist narrative,

:24:42.:24:48.

adopted by President Zuma along with blaming white racism.

:24:49.:24:52.

It is clear that some of our white compatriots regard black people

:24:53.:24:55.

The reason that Zuma is playing the race card and also talking

:24:56.:25:10.

about land reform and radical economic transformation

:25:11.:25:12.

Jonathan Shapiro is South Africa's most famous cartoonist.

:25:13.:25:19.

He recently portrayed the country about to be raped by one

:25:20.:25:26.

of the Gupta brothers, who are resented for

:25:27.:25:28.

Encouraged by Jacob Zuma and his cronies.

:25:29.:25:32.

The fact that I can sit and do this kind of thing and be this critical,

:25:33.:25:35.

even if I've got lawsuits from the president, if he can try

:25:36.:25:38.

and smear me and I can still come through that and do this,

:25:39.:25:41.

I feel much luckier than a lot of people,

:25:42.:25:45.

not only in other parts of Africa, but in other parts of the world.

:25:46.:25:50.

This cartoon shows former president Kgalema Motlanthe giving a voice

:25:51.:25:53.

from beyond the grave to one of the great anti-apartheid heroes.

:25:54.:25:57.

It's exactly what happened at Ahmed Kathrada's funeral.

:25:58.:26:01.

The great and the good were there, but not Jacob Zuma.

:26:02.:26:05.

That was the last request of the man whose letter calling

:26:06.:26:08.

on the president to resign was read out.

:26:09.:26:11.

You will choose the correct way that is gaining momentum

:26:12.:26:13.

Not everyone was cheering, but many were.

:26:14.:26:20.

This was the defining moment as the old guard

:26:21.:26:22.

The gracious thing for him to do right now is to be asked to be

:26:23.:26:28.

As anti-apartheid hero Walter Sisulu's daughter-in-law,

:26:29.:26:35.

she is one of the ANC struggle stalwarts.

:26:36.:26:37.

Is Jacob Zuma corrupt, and/or has he corrupted the country?

:26:38.:26:40.

Whether it is the authority of the government at national level,

:26:41.:26:52.

in the provinces, in local government, it has become endemic.

:26:53.:26:56.

Its senior members again backing President Zuma for the sake

:26:57.:27:03.

Jacob Zuma will be replaced as ANC leader in December

:27:04.:27:14.

and as president in 2019, unless another vote

:27:15.:27:16.

of no-confidence passage through Parliament next month.

:27:17.:27:21.

So may say all of them, but the voices of support are wavering.

:27:22.:27:36.

The ANC is losing its share of the vote.

:27:37.:27:38.

The currency and the economy are suffering.

:27:39.:27:40.

As are the very people the ANC fought apartheid to try and help.

:27:41.:27:44.

Ivanka Trump shared a platform in Berlin today with some

:27:45.:28:01.

It was an empowering women conference, and Ivanka herself

:28:02.:28:08.

She is Assistant to the President of the United States,

:28:09.:28:12.

Her husband is also a senior advisor.

:28:13.:28:17.

Inevitably, at the conference today, she had to talk about her father,

:28:18.:28:21.

who's not always seen as an empowerer of women.

:28:22.:28:25.

I've certainly heard the criticism from the media and that's been

:28:26.:28:29.

perpetuated but I know from personal experience and I think the thousands

:28:30.:28:35.

of women who have worked with and for my father for decades

:28:36.:28:41.

when he was in the private sector are testament to his belief

:28:42.:28:44.

and solid conviction in the potential of women

:28:45.:28:49.

and their ability to do the job as well as any man.

:28:50.:28:54.

I think in my personal experience, you're asking me about my role

:28:55.:28:58.

As a daughter I can also speak on a very personal level,

:28:59.:29:03.

knowing that he encouraged me and enabled me to thrive.

:29:04.:29:13.

But how significant a figure is she within the administration -

:29:14.:29:16.

and what more can we expect from her?

:29:17.:29:18.

I spoke a little earlier to Vanity Fair journalist

:29:19.:29:20.

Sarah Ellison in New York - she is one of America's best-known

:29:21.:29:23.

Ivanka-watchers and has spent the last two years

:29:24.:29:25.

I started by asking her what she thought of Ivanka's

:29:26.:29:28.

I think Ivanka is very poised, she always looks great and prevents

:29:29.:29:41.

herself in a very together way that people find impressive. She carries

:29:42.:29:44.

herself well in terms of the optics of the stage and the people she was

:29:45.:29:50.

surrounded with. Does she find it difficult to defend her father?

:29:51.:29:55.

Wherever she goes, people must say things about her dad. I think she's

:29:56.:30:01.

very effective at deflecting criticism of her father and changing

:30:02.:30:06.

the conversation. She did, as she often does, target the media, saying

:30:07.:30:11.

she had heard those criticisms about her father. She remained calm,

:30:12.:30:15.

talking about her personal experience with her father, which

:30:16.:30:20.

she does frequently, she did on the campaign trail and continues to do.

:30:21.:30:25.

She talks about how her father was good for the women that he worked

:30:26.:30:31.

with in the private sector and how politics is politics. She didn't

:30:32.:30:36.

explicitly say it but she said that politics is a difficult game and the

:30:37.:30:41.

rules are different. She has become hardened to these criticisms of her

:30:42.:30:44.

father and she has become effective at deflecting them. Tell us about

:30:45.:30:49.

her role in the White House. A lot of people would like to think of a

:30:50.:30:54.

picture of her politics being at odds with her father's. She has

:30:55.:30:58.

flirted with the Democrats in the past. Do you think she is a

:30:59.:31:04.

tempering influence on him? How is it working? Her father has also

:31:05.:31:10.

flirted with the Democrats so his politics are not as clear as some

:31:11.:31:15.

may think. In some quarters in the US people love the idea of Ivanka

:31:16.:31:18.

getting in his ear because he doesn't have a very well-defined

:31:19.:31:26.

political ideology so they think of Ivanka, who is identified with many

:31:27.:31:30.

courses that are close to the Democrats, that she can influence

:31:31.:31:34.

him. Of course no one knows what goes on behind closed doors. What we

:31:35.:31:39.

know about Ivanka is that she has been expert at speaking out on the

:31:40.:31:44.

issues that she says she cares about: women in families, women in

:31:45.:31:49.

the workplace. She has a lot to say about that. She has nothing to say

:31:50.:31:55.

on the border wall with Mexico, nothing to say on the more explosive

:31:56.:31:59.

issues that her father has brought forward. What she's doing I think is

:32:00.:32:06.

distancing herself silently in that she doesn't want to be embroiled in

:32:07.:32:10.

these debates. What you're describing, though, her role in the

:32:11.:32:16.

White House, is how we may think of the first lady, the wife of the

:32:17.:32:21.

president rather than the daughter. What is the relationship of her with

:32:22.:32:24.

Melania Trump and do you think she sees herself and Donald Trump sees

:32:25.:32:30.

her basically as serving the first Lady role? None of them would say

:32:31.:32:37.

that and in fact Ivanka has been asked that specifically and she's

:32:38.:32:40.

said there's only one first lady and that she is a daughter. She says

:32:41.:32:47.

those things. Now, in reality, Melania Trump still lives in York,

:32:48.:32:51.

we've seen reports that she will move to Washington but that hasn't

:32:52.:32:57.

happened. Ivanka is more present in Washington at events with her father

:32:58.:33:03.

than Melania has-been. The relationship is interesting, Melania

:33:04.:33:08.

is about 13 years older than Ivanka and Ivanka is about 13 years older

:33:09.:33:13.

than her half sister Tiffany so she occupies this place in the family

:33:14.:33:18.

where she is the favourite child, even her brothers admit that. In

:33:19.:33:22.

interviews they've talked about that. She's laughed it off. From my

:33:23.:33:27.

reporting, people close to Donald Trump say that there's only one

:33:28.:33:31.

person in the White House who isn't expandable and its Ivanka Trump.

:33:32.:33:35.

She's been with him all of her professional life so this is a very

:33:36.:33:41.

natural relationship, they work together well, he trusts her. He

:33:42.:33:46.

doesn't trust people easily. The challenge is for her to translate

:33:47.:33:50.

that relationship to the international audience and national

:33:51.:33:52.

audience in a way that makes sense to the rest of us. Thank you for

:33:53.:33:54.

joining us. You too, thank you. Time for Viewsnight now -

:33:55.:34:00.

and in the run up to the election we are going to do things

:34:01.:34:03.

a little differently. We want to stir the policy pot

:34:04.:34:05.

a little during the campaign, so the Views in Viewsnight will be

:34:06.:34:08.

in the form of specific ideas for the political

:34:09.:34:11.

parties to take or leave. First up is David Cameron's

:34:12.:34:13.

former policy chief Only last year, she was

:34:14.:34:18.

working in Downing Street. And she has clearly come to the view

:34:19.:36:05.

that something needs to be done - even if it is not very instinctively

:36:06.:36:09.

Conservative. I'm joined to discuss

:36:10.:36:18.

this by Lord Warner, former Labour health minister

:36:19.:36:21.

and now an independent peer, and Niall Dickson -

:36:22.:36:24.

the chief executive of the NHS Do you like the enteric since tax

:36:25.:36:30.

idea? It's not a bad idea, getting money after death for care, but it

:36:31.:36:33.

isn't delivering the bacon in terms of funding for social care. 500,000

:36:34.:36:39.

deaths per year and under 5% of them will pay inheritance tax so

:36:40.:36:44.

something dramatic would have to be done, way beyond what Camilla is

:36:45.:36:48.

talking about. 2 billion has been cut, I think. We need 2.5, 3 billion

:36:49.:36:57.

up to 2020, to plug the gap that's been created. If you look at what

:36:58.:37:01.

goes on, the demography up until 2035, you need 2.5% new money each

:37:02.:37:09.

year, all the way for 15 years. Inheritance tax, a death tax, good

:37:10.:37:14.

idea? We need something to bring the money in and I almost think that

:37:15.:37:19.

Camilla underestimated what we are facing. At the moment we are talking

:37:20.:37:23.

about one in eight elderly people in England not getting the services

:37:24.:37:29.

that they need. These individuals are suffering. We have a health care

:37:30.:37:32.

system that is under enormous pressure. There has to be something

:37:33.:37:38.

done in terms of, as Norman says, the immediate but the longer term

:37:39.:37:41.

issue is that we will see a doubling of the over 85s. Politicians must

:37:42.:37:48.

face up to this, it is a moment to reflect on something serious that

:37:49.:37:52.

must be dealt with. But you talk to them, as chief lobbyist for the NHS.

:37:53.:37:59.

Are they taking it seriously? The next two weeks is the best chance

:38:00.:38:03.

we've got, Wendy two parties are going to be writing their

:38:04.:38:10.

manifestos. -- when the two parties. Will there be something in it? We

:38:11.:38:17.

will wait and see. Fed to say that the Prime Minister has nailed her

:38:18.:38:20.

colours to the mast by saying she will deal with social care, a

:38:21.:38:25.

promise that has been made by previous administrations but I'm

:38:26.:38:29.

told she is deadly serious. It is going to cost money now, and the

:38:30.:38:32.

government put more money in the budget and it will cost a lot more

:38:33.:38:38.

going forward. Some can be raised with taxation from individuals but

:38:39.:38:41.

over a period of time we should be linking it to the GDP level, we

:38:42.:38:46.

should be putting health and care together because care tends to lag

:38:47.:38:51.

behind health. Health suffers because care is not properly funded.

:38:52.:38:56.

Do you like the idea of a hype of the K to tax, a tax that will go to

:38:57.:39:06.

social care? We look at this on the select committee on NHS

:39:07.:39:09.

sustainability. It's clear that people don't trust politicians any

:39:10.:39:14.

more in terms of taxation so I think you're going to have to look at a

:39:15.:39:19.

stream of revenue for social care, at the least, which is clearly

:39:20.:39:22.

defined and that's what they've done in Japan and Germany. They haven't

:39:23.:39:26.

ditched general taxation but they have top it up by having effectively

:39:27.:39:33.

this kind of tax for long-term care. I think we've got to start thinking

:39:34.:39:37.

in those terms if we want the stream of revenue to be adequate. What

:39:38.:39:42.

about nontax solutions? What about the of insurance that would take you

:39:43.:39:50.

to a cap in state pay? The German and Japanese systems are a real

:39:51.:39:57.

fund, is different to a tax where the government says it is for a

:39:58.:40:00.

particular thing. This is building up over time, something we haven't

:40:01.:40:05.

done. What about private savings, insurance? Could you ask me at age

:40:06.:40:09.

40 to start putting money into a savings plan? That's what the

:40:10.:40:15.

Japanese are doing. People may prefer that if they have their name

:40:16.:40:20.

on it rather than taxing someone. I don't think we should just copy the

:40:21.:40:23.

Japanese but we should learn from other countries. They started to get

:40:24.:40:30.

people... They haven't ditched general taxation, they've top it up

:40:31.:40:33.

and that's where we've got to be more creative. You can't go on using

:40:34.:40:39.

general taxation, I don't think, because you must raise it to

:40:40.:40:41.

unacceptable levels. Thank you for joining us.

:40:42.:40:43.

That's all we have time for - I'll be back in this seat tomorrow.

:40:44.:40:47.

A lot going on in the election campaign, Boris Johnson giving a

:40:48.:40:53.

speech on foreign policy in the evening.

:40:54.:40:54.

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