Battleground Britain Special Newsnight


Battleground Britain Special

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It's not true of course, but sure as hell a lot of it is,

:00:00.:00:11.

and in this election the outcome will be determined in different

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So tonight we are out and about in battleground Britain.

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Three constituencies each chosen for a special reason,

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This is Bishop Auckland, the beautiful market

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town in County Durham, in the election battleground

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I'm 200 miles south in the Conservative seat

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The heart of a town lies in its people.

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We're taking that to heart, and we'll be speaking

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Scotland is a very different battle ground indeed.

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We'll hear why this seat of Berwickshire is important,

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I'm standing outside the town hall, with 30 days

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It's easy to watch our programme, or any other, and to get

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the impression that an election is just a contest fought

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between party leaders on a national stage.

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Certainly it felt like that today with Theresa May and husband Philip

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on the One Show sofa and Jeremy Corbyn

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But we are going to ignore both of those stories tonight -

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because for good or ill, we have a voting system that

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also makes our election 650 local contests.

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Each seat has its own candidates, its own local parties,

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And with national party loyalties in an elasticated

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state at the moment, local action is often where it's at.

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So tonight we've ditched the studio and have come out

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We are in three ordinary constituencies, chosen

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because the way their voters turn on June the 8th could help deliver

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three very different futures for Britain.

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A little later in the programme, we'll be off to the Conservative

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The seat is number 50 on Labour's target list,

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and we're dropping in to look at the Labour in power scenario.

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If Labour can win Stevenage, they are probably the largest

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It's a London commuter belt town, but it's a long way

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And the Tories were 5000 votes ahead last time.

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But the constituency voted Labour throughout the Blair heydays.

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We'll also visit the Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk constituency

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This is an SNP seat, but is number three on the Tories' UK target list.

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A comfortable Tory victory there takes us to the Conservative

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consolidation outcome, a modest increase in

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A rural seat, it spans a large portion of south-east of Scotland.

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Most voters here backed unionist parties last time.

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Will that help the Tories take it, and signify a resurgence

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But our first stop is here in Bishop Auckland.

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A Labour seat now, this is number 46 on the Tory target list,

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and a win would suggest we're looking at the Tory landslide

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scenario, with a majority of around 100.

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This has a long history, but its economy has been shaped

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by the rise and fall of the coal mines here.

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Today, the Conservatives need a 4.5% swing from Labour to clinch it.

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They came within 328 votes of winning it last time.

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Well, with me here is our political editor, Nick Watt.

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Nick, we're here because if the Conservatives can win

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in seats like this then we'd expect them to be on course

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for a landslide majority, and they would have stolen

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significant ground from Labour on their home turf.

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The polling experts have said that if the Conservatives win this seat,

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they would have a majority of 100, and that is as you say landslide

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territory. Some recent opinion polls have suggested we are heading that

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way, the guardian ICM poll yesterday gave the Conservatives a 22 point

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lead all the others say it is more narrow. But our pollsters were

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cautious and suggested local election results last week implied a

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swing from Labour to the Conservatives of 2.5%, and that

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wouldn't really get you into a landslide, it would be a Tory

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majority of 60, not bad, who would complain? But that is only ten above

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the figures that ministers are saying would we make this early

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election worthwhile. If we're talking about this scenario today,

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what would the impact of that B? It is something that our age group

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would refer to as a Basildon moment, that moment in 1982 where it came

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obvious that the Tories would get a fourth election victory. It has been

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Labour since 1935 when Hugh Dalton recaptured it from the Liberals. He

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was the Labour Chancellor who inadvertently leaked his budget in

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1947, but after spending two Dacia, I would say the Tories have quite a

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big hurdle to climb, which is entrenched Labour support even from

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Labour voters who have doubts about Jeremy Corbyn, but there is a

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reasonable Ukip vote here, and if that splits is the way opinion polls

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show they will, maybe the Tories will get across the line. Thank you,

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Nic. And Nick has spent the last couple

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of days here in Bishop Auckland, testing the temperature of those

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who live here and asking whether this town will stay Labour

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or help give the Conservatives Medieval castles and grand houses

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pepper the western half of the Bishop Auckland constituency. But

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this is a parliamentary seat of two halves. As you head east into former

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coal-mining areas, you see tell-tale signs of post-industrial decline.

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There is real rapport poverty as well as urban poverty. Lots of

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people struggling to make ends meet in their lives. So there is a lot of

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the just about managing people do get talked about, and there are

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those who go from one job to another, they are worried about

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permanent and stability. Theresa May would dearly love to win this seat,

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which has been in labour hands since 1935. The Prime Minister should have

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little difficulty in picking up votes in the more prosperous parts

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of the constituency. The hope will be that her central message about

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championing ordinary working families will win over Labour and

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Ukip voters in the more deprived areas. Success for the Tories,

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buoyed by their victory in the nearby Tees Valley mayoral contest,

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may depend in large part whether Labour voters are prepared to

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support their leader. One lifelong supporter will be casting his ballot

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the labour, but with little enthusiasm. He is too idle to shave,

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and he's not right, he's not a Labour top man, I would say. He's

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got to get himself sorted, because if not, we are going down the

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Suwanee. His friend Danny isn't going to vote at all. Labour? No

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backbone whatsoever. I would vote for Labour now. Labour will get it

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around here no problem at all. But there is no leadership. So there are

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strong doubts about Jeremy Corbyn in the Bishop Auckland Labour

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heartlands, but head over to the leafy aside whether Tories can count

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on strong support, and you can see signs of that Corbyn Fanclub. I

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think the media are saying that Jeremy Corbyn is in very good. I

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think he's a very good leader, and I think he stands his ground. I joined

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the Labour Party to get him in. The contrasting views show that nothing

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is straightforward about this seat, where the picture on the ground is

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more nuanced than polling numbers would suggest. Apathy may be a

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strong factor, and Bishop Auckland is no longer a straight Labour/ Tory

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fight. Theresa May will only prevail if she can eat into 7000 Ukip votes.

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Tell me why you wrote Ukip. Because immigration in this country is out

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of control. Some people say that Ukip in a sense of done their job,

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we are out of the EU. No, I don't agree. It's not job done, is it?

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Half a job. Tories tend not to put their heads above the parapet in

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Bishop Auckland. One mum of an aspiring ping-pong champion is full

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of praise for Theresa May. I do like her, and coming from the feminist

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point of view, I like that we've got a woman again. I think she's a

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strong character, I like what she said about Brexit, and I think

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probably a lot of people are thinking like that, they think she

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is a strong leader and that helps the shift from Labour to Tory. I

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don't think Labour have got a lot going for them at the moment. And

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there are even Labour voters who praised the Prime Minister. I think

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she's very strong. I think she won't take anything, she'll be a good

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candidate and stand strong in terms of Brexit. But I don't believe in

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the Conservative policies, really. If the Tories do win this seat, it

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could well be remembered as a seismic moment in British politics.

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It would be significant because it would say something about what was

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happening across the nation as a whole, which might surprise people,

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if this seat particularly went Conservative. In this overlooked

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corner of north-east England, visitors would barely know an

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election is under way. Many people told us they are simply

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uninterested, and the greatest noise issue is not from election's

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loud-hailers, but from one of England's most spectacular

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waterfalls. Nic Watt there.

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Arguably, the grand divide in England, exposed

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by the referendum last year, was between big cities

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like Manchester and London and secondary towns and cities that

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tended to vote more enthusiastically for Brexit.

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It's that factor that might or might not be reshaping the party

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loyalties of seats we think of as naturally Labour or Tory.

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Well, let's reflect on what's changing.

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I am joined here in Bishop Auckland by James Wharton, former

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He has been Conservative MP for Stockton South since May 2010.

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And Chi Onwurah, Labour MP for Newcastle upon Tyne Central

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since 2010 and a shadow Business Minister.

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Good evening to you both. Chi first of all, what you think is happening

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here among traditional Labour voters? Is there some sense of them

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switching away? I think what we are seeing is we have Brexit divided the

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country and divided northern voters as well, 58% of northern voters

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voted to leave. The Conservative Party have taken on Ukip's language

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and mantle is attracting them, but what I find on the doorstep, and we

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have many fantastic candidates taking our message into the

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communities, is that the Labour vote, the memory of the Tory

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government and the cuts to public services combined with the fact that

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people do not feel better off, people know that we are 10% on

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average worse than when the Conservative first came into power,

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that is still the message. Are you expecting to lose seats in the

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north-east, though? We are fighting for every vote. That isn't what I

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asked. The polls suggest that we may experience losses, but on the day

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itself, I think people will remember what a Tory government means. What

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is your experience, James Wharton? I would be surprised if we don't take

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seat in the north-east, what is underlying that is where and when.

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What do you think it is? I think a long time people voting in the

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north-east were removed from those who represented them. Brexit is one

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big reason, it highlighted that. Nearly all of the Labour MPs in this

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region supported remain, and a lot of the Labour voters supported

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leave, and there wasn't a voice for them, and they looked elsewhere.

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What do you say, Chi, to Labour voters when they say, I might not

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vote Labour or I don't like Jeremy Corbyn. What do you say? I say to

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them, Labour voters who are thinking of switching to Tory, I say that if

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in two years' time you will be lying at a -- lying awake at night out of

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guilt will the Tories are doing to our schools, NHS and economy, and

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your responsibility for that. And for James to say that our

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candidates, our MPs, have not been rooted in their communities, when

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the Tory party is full of people who can't even imagine what it is like

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to take a bus, never mind to go to a food bank... Let James answer. I

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have lived the north-east all my life. I have seen the complacency of

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many of the Labour politicians and the reason. The big thing we face in

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this country going forward, and people know this, is going to be

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Brexit, getting the deal are going to that process, and there is a

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choice in this election between Theresa May and her strong and

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stable leadership... LAUGHTER

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. Lets just ask about the pitch of the

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north-east to your parties. It was the Tories who came up with this

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Northern Powerhouse slogan, who seem to have a vision or ambition for the

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North. You must feel terrible that Labour didn't talk about it in that

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way for so long? Labour has always been rooted in the

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industrial heartlands. Labour is for a resurgent industry and we know

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what industry means, jobs, good quality jobs, making and building

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things. The industrial strategy, you are Shadow Minister for industrial

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strategy. What is it? Industrial strategy is to invest in our

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transport, in innovation infrastructure, to invest in

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communities and skills, for lifelong learning so we have the skilled

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people to deliver the skilled jobs which mean higher wages and mean we

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can compete internationally and globally. You were the Northern

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Powerhouse minister until last summer. What has happened to that,

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what is going on? Just last week we had the first mayor elected in the

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north-east region. There are more in the north than anywhere else. And

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with that comes significant devolution and new powers. Three

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years ago George Osborne talked about high speed three. It was going

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to be an east West think that would make northern cities more than the

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sum of their parts. When is that going to be finished? You do not

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finish a project on economic growth. When is it going to start? We have

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seen devolution delivered in the Tees Valley. On every single train,

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they will be replaced by 2022. These are big investment that had been

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needed by -- nearly four years. Our economy can have workers moving

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around thanks to our investment and we will set up the bank of the North

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which will attract investment here and control that investment. Is it

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your contention that the Northern Powerhouse is on track and being

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delivered to the people of the North? I think it is. When you say

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Northern Powerhouse... You cannot change something that dramatically

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overnight. You are going to see new trains and devolution deal, the

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shape of politics is changing across the north of England and people are

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doing that. We that in the vote. Investment is going to follow. In

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seven years we have doubled the debt under the Tories. We have to leave

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it there. Well, that's it from

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Bishop Auckland for now. We shall return later,

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but the next leg on this UK Thanks, Evan - and good evening

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from Abbotsford in the heart of the Scottish Borders,

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the home of Sir Walter Scott, who did more than his fair share

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to forge both Scottish identity and the idea of a Scotland's place

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in the United Kingdom. We are here because constituencies

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like this are the kind the Conservatives need to win

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if they are to consolidate But more than that -

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this election serves to emphasise how much Scotland

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is "another country". For many here, this is a return

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to the arguments of the 2014 Nicola Sturgeon says it's a chance

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to put Scotland in Scotland's hands. Ruth Davidson, after a Tory surge

:18:25.:18:29.

at last week's local elections, says it's an opportunity

:18:30.:18:32.

for unionists to prevail. For Labour, who took a drubbing

:18:33.:18:35.

in the locals and even managed to lose Glasgow council,

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the question is whether this election brings

:18:39.:18:40.

a fightback or wipeout. The resurgence of the Tories appears

:18:41.:18:44.

to be a direct result In power in Scotland

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for more than a decade, the last general election

:18:48.:18:51.

was a triumph when they took So this election is for the heart

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and soul of Scotland, but if the Conservatives gain even

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a handful of seats, it would contribute to the idea

:18:59.:19:01.

that they are the only party who can Scotland has been at the heart

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of seismic shifts in politics In 1997 Labour in Scotland

:19:05.:19:19.

was the backbone of Tony Blair's The Conservatives were all

:19:20.:19:24.

but dead in the water Ten years later, the Scottish

:19:25.:19:29.

National Party formed a minority administration in Hollywood and have

:19:30.:19:36.

been in power ever since. Now they command the heights

:19:37.:19:40.

of Scotland at Westminster. But people are beginning to ask

:19:41.:19:44.

whether they have reached peak nat and how that would play

:19:45.:19:48.

into a second independence When Nicola Sturgeon announced

:19:49.:19:50.

there would be a second referendum, did that galvanise unionism

:19:51.:19:57.

in the Scotland? So we've got this odd paradox

:19:58.:20:00.

going on in Scottish politics now where the Unionist parties

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want to talk about independence because they know they have this 55%

:20:04.:20:06.

majority against it. And the SNP want to talk about other

:20:07.:20:10.

things because they know that they actually are more in tune

:20:11.:20:13.

with the views of the Scottish people on social policy,

:20:14.:20:16.

on Europe, on social justice, There has always been

:20:17.:20:18.

tactical voting here. But this time it may

:20:19.:20:27.

have a radically different effect Labour is in a terrible,

:20:28.:20:29.

terrible position. The weakest I have

:20:30.:20:34.

ever seen the party. I think what is happening is that

:20:35.:20:39.

people are saying, well, another independence referendum,

:20:40.:20:41.

you know, we don't want that. We don't want to wrangle

:20:42.:20:44.

over this question, And so what is happening

:20:45.:20:47.

is they are voting Conservative because they have positioned

:20:48.:20:52.

themselves clearly, clearly as the party that will fight

:20:53.:20:54.

against another referendum. If the Conservatives

:20:55.:20:59.

are going to take any seats from the Nationalists,

:21:00.:21:01.

this one, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk,

:21:02.:21:03.

is first on the hit list. I am in Hawick though,

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and here is the conundrum. This was once the centre

:21:08.:21:12.

of the textile industry, but a combination of automation

:21:13.:21:16.

and globalisation has decimated Hawico is a family firm founded

:21:17.:21:18.

in the town in 1874. It makes luxury cashmere

:21:19.:21:28.

clothing which is exported Brexit is by far and

:21:29.:21:30.

away the biggest issue Scottish independence,

:21:31.:21:39.

all the uncertainty that we have with all that are our

:21:40.:21:47.

single biggest issues. While the view of the management

:21:48.:21:49.

might be clear, there are some I have never voted Tory

:21:50.:21:52.

in my life and I have But this time I'm going to vote Tory

:21:53.:22:00.

because I voted to come out, I voted to stay together,

:22:01.:22:04.

so I have to vote Tory. They say that Ruth Davidson has

:22:05.:22:08.

detoxified the Tories. But I'm not really wanting another

:22:09.:22:10.

referendum because we have had the result already and I think

:22:11.:22:17.

they're just sort Alistair Moffat farms just

:22:18.:22:20.

a few miles from here. He feels the apparent conundrum

:22:21.:22:28.

of this election particularly Because we are a frontier people

:22:29.:22:30.

and have been for a thousand years, we do not see the frontier people

:22:31.:22:36.

on the other side of the Tweed People want to stay

:22:37.:22:40.

in the British union, To avoid another unnecessary

:22:41.:22:45.

referendum, as they see it. But also the Conservatives are

:22:46.:22:50.

apparently embracing hard Brexit. And many people here do not want out

:22:51.:22:55.

of the European Union. In rural England a seat like this

:22:56.:23:03.

would have been safe Tory territory. But for years even before

:23:04.:23:07.

the rise of the SNP, this was a liberal rather

:23:08.:23:10.

than a Conservative stronghold. It will be here where we discover

:23:11.:23:13.

whether Ruth Davidson has done enough to detoxify the Tories north

:23:14.:23:16.

of the border. What would a Conservative land

:23:17.:23:24.

grab in Scotland mean Nicola Sturgeon surprised many

:23:25.:23:27.

by using the backdrop of Brexit to call for a second referendum

:23:28.:23:31.

earlier this year. But could May have outmanoeurvered

:23:32.:23:36.

her with her snap election? And if so, what would

:23:37.:23:38.

the SNP do next? Well, I caught up earlier this

:23:39.:23:41.

evening with the party's former I asked him what he would

:23:42.:23:44.

regard as a mandate This election will not

:23:45.:23:47.

decide independence. Independence will be

:23:48.:23:52.

decided in a referendum. That is the established policy

:23:53.:23:54.

of the Scottish National Party. This election will decide

:23:55.:23:59.

whether the decisions about Scotland's future should

:24:00.:24:01.

remain in Scotland's hands. These are decisions to be made

:24:02.:24:05.

by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish people,

:24:06.:24:07.

not to be dictated And that is what an SNP victory

:24:08.:24:09.

in this election will reinforce. You asked me what would

:24:10.:24:14.

happen if the SNP... Can I just say that

:24:15.:24:20.

unlike the rather presumptuous vainglorious announcements

:24:21.:24:24.

from the Conservative Party about what they're going to win,

:24:25.:24:27.

the SNP have never taken a single So we will let

:24:28.:24:30.

the electorate decide. You talk about Ruth Davidson saying

:24:31.:24:35.

it is a vainglorious boast to take Gordon,

:24:36.:24:41.

your own seat. But you have said things like,

:24:42.:24:43.

independence is inevitable, Well, to say that independence,

:24:44.:24:45.

there is a movement of Scottish politics towards independence,

:24:46.:24:51.

that is as certain as anything can That is not the same thing as saying

:24:52.:24:54.

I'm going to overturn a 20,000 No, but you got a 6500 majority

:24:55.:24:58.

in the last general election. I had a 20,000 majority over

:24:59.:25:06.

the Conservative Party. I mean, the Tories have this always

:25:07.:25:09.

extending list of seats I'm merely saying that

:25:10.:25:13.

in the north-east of Scotland and in the borders of Scotland,

:25:14.:25:17.

and in any common-sense area of Scotland, the people who make

:25:18.:25:19.

vainglorious boasts before an election can often be brought

:25:20.:25:27.

down to earth with a large bump. You could say that you would be

:25:28.:25:30.

making a vainglorious boast between a second independence

:25:31.:25:33.

referendum because you have said, independence is inevitable,

:25:34.:25:35.

it is just generational. My belief has always been that once

:25:36.:25:37.

the key decision was to establish the Scottish Parliament,

:25:38.:25:43.

once the Scottish Parliament was established, then it would

:25:44.:25:45.

increase and enhance its powers over That was a process which was as near

:25:46.:25:48.

inevitable as anything I have always said the exact timing

:25:49.:25:52.

of when that happens and how that happens,

:25:53.:25:58.

that is for political debate and for I may say the destination

:25:59.:26:00.

is what is set. The route and the number of stops

:26:01.:26:06.

you have on the way, But that is interesting,

:26:07.:26:09.

you say the destination is set. So what you are essentially saying

:26:10.:26:13.

is the Scottish people could deliver no message at this general election

:26:14.:26:16.

which would indicate that they do not want a second

:26:17.:26:20.

independence referendum, No, the Scottish people,

:26:21.:26:22.

my whole basis and being in politics What I am saying is once we

:26:23.:26:28.

established the Scottish Parliament, and we are sitting here not far

:26:29.:26:34.

from Linlithgow and the late Tam Dalyell stayed in the Binns

:26:35.:26:38.

a few minutes from here. And Tam and I disagreed on many,

:26:39.:26:41.

many things in politics, about the establishment

:26:42.:26:45.

of a Scottish Parliament. But the one thing we agreed

:26:46.:26:47.

on is once you have established a national parliament of Scotland,

:26:48.:26:50.

it would over a period of time accrue the powers and become

:26:51.:26:53.

an independent parliament. The people decide the timetable,

:26:54.:26:56.

they decide when that happens. Two years ago the SNP got half

:26:57.:27:00.

the vote in the general election. If that figure is significantly

:27:01.:27:08.

lower in this election, are you saying that irrespective

:27:09.:27:12.

of how they voted on Brexit, No, what I'm saying is the SNP

:27:13.:27:17.

will go into this election looking for every vote and every possible

:27:18.:27:23.

constituency, striving hard And you judge the winning

:27:24.:27:25.

of an election by the party that gets the most seats

:27:26.:27:31.

and the most votes. And you do not take

:27:32.:27:33.

anything for granted. But if the direction of travel,

:27:34.:27:35.

can I just ask, is the direction of travel in this election,

:27:36.:27:43.

if Ruth Davidson moves and takes a number of seats including perhaps,

:27:44.:27:45.

first of all, Berwickshire, which is a very, very

:27:46.:27:48.

slender majority. Or Gordon, yes, because in fact

:27:49.:27:49.

if they tactically voted against you on the same turnout,

:27:50.:27:55.

on the same percent Why would they not

:27:56.:27:57.

tactically vote against I saw an interesting figure

:27:58.:28:01.

in the polls a couple of weeks ago. It did not ask how people

:28:02.:28:05.

were voting, it looked at the parties and said,

:28:06.:28:07.

do you like this party? 53% of people in

:28:08.:28:10.

Scotland like the SNP. The figure for the

:28:11.:28:12.

Conservative Party was 24%. But you have not got over

:28:13.:28:15.

the 50% hurdle for a second I'm interested in the fact that

:28:16.:28:18.

you will go for a second independence referendum no matter

:28:19.:28:22.

what the result of this election is. No, the mandate for the second

:28:23.:28:26.

referendum was last year. The decision on what happens at this

:28:27.:28:29.

election is a matter But you judge whether you win

:28:30.:28:32.

or lose an election by winning And on that criteria

:28:33.:28:36.

the Scottish National Party have won every major election

:28:37.:28:40.

in Scotland since 2010. I'm joined here by the fireside

:28:41.:28:42.

by elections supremo and psephologist John Curtice,

:28:43.:28:53.

who crunches the numbers at the University of Strathclyde,

:28:54.:28:55.

and by Alex Massie, Scotland editor Alex Salmond is right that they have

:28:56.:29:10.

the mandate for a second referendum. But is there anything that could

:29:11.:29:16.

alter the thinking of that? Not for the SNP. In a technical sense or

:29:17.:29:22.

factual sense if you prefer the SNP already have their mandate for a

:29:23.:29:29.

second referendum, authorising the Scottish Government, that vote was

:29:30.:29:32.

passed a few weeks ago. But politics is not just about facts and

:29:33.:29:37.

technicalities and hitherto the SNP have done well covered lies in on a

:29:38.:29:41.

sense of inevitability and the momentum is with them that the are

:29:42.:29:45.

of national aberration if you like is at hand. If they were to lose

:29:46.:29:50.

seats in this election that would check that momentum. It will remain

:29:51.:29:56.

the largest party, but they will see a setback, which will embolden

:29:57.:30:02.

conservatives who think we can push this further down the line.

:30:03.:30:07.

The suits Ruth Davidson makes this about unionism? Ever since the

:30:08.:30:17.

referendum of 2014, the constitutional question has been the

:30:18.:30:22.

seat of Scottish politics, and this election is simply a continuation of

:30:23.:30:27.

that process. The truth is, what has happened is not so much SNP support

:30:28.:30:32.

has gone down that heavily, but rather that the Conservative Party

:30:33.:30:35.

has become much more successful at bringing the Unionist vote in, and

:30:36.:30:40.

essentially it is taking votes from the Labour Party. The other thing

:30:41.:30:46.

which is true is the SNP is defending a quite remarkable base.

:30:47.:30:51.

50% of the vote, 56 out of 59 seats, difficult to beat, and the

:30:52.:30:56.

difficulty for the SNP in particular is you can see what happened in last

:30:57.:31:03.

year's Scottish parliament election. Here on the border with England, up

:31:04.:31:08.

in the north-east, and so on. The Liberal Democrat equally picking off

:31:09.:31:10.

places like Fife north-east and Edinburgh West. And therefore the

:31:11.:31:17.

SNP are finding that the anti-SNP vote is congregating against

:31:18.:31:22.

particular parties. And of course there is this idea that we have

:31:23.:31:28.

always had tactical voting but there are particular areas where it looks

:31:29.:31:34.

as if the best candidate, the Unionist candidate, will be the one

:31:35.:31:40.

in certain areas for example Edinburgh. Yes, I think we can

:31:41.:31:46.

expect to see a nonaggression pact between Unionist parties in

:31:47.:31:48.

Edinburgh which could if everything fell their way leave Edinburgh like

:31:49.:31:53.

Berlin, divided into four zones. You would have the Liberal Democrats in

:31:54.:31:56.

Edinburgh West, Tories in the south-west, Labour in Edinburgh

:31:57.:32:02.

South and the SNP would be the largest group. Whether that actually

:32:03.:32:06.

happens, a lot needs to go right for the Unionist parties for that

:32:07.:32:10.

transpire, but it is possible, and we see a breakdown in tribalism,

:32:11.:32:13.

particularly amongst Conservative voters who are happy to endorse a

:32:14.:32:17.

Labour Liberal Democrat candidate if that's candidate is the person best

:32:18.:32:22.

place to defeat the SNP, because you are either on team SNP, or team

:32:23.:32:29.

anti-SNP in Scotland. But one of the big Scottish stories may well be

:32:30.:32:32.

that what happens to Labour after this election, we don't know the

:32:33.:32:36.

result is yet but there are certainly questions about whether

:32:37.:32:38.

Corbyn should even be in the election literature. That party is

:32:39.:32:46.

only defending one seat, and above South, and it is vulnerable. The

:32:47.:32:49.

Labour Party fell to third yet again as they did further south, but my

:32:50.:32:56.

reading of where we are at, is although the Labour Party is down in

:32:57.:32:59.

Scotland, it is not quite out. It still managed to get a fifth of the

:33:00.:33:04.

vote here, and the gap between them and the Conservatives is still

:33:05.:33:07.

sufficiently narrow that actually the battle for who is going to be

:33:08.:33:11.

the principal party of unionism in Scotland has not yet been won and

:33:12.:33:15.

lost. Ten seconds, does Theresa May have to tread carefully in tone in

:33:16.:33:21.

Scotland? In the long-term, yes. Whitehall, Westminster, Downing

:33:22.:33:24.

Street are very good at next week, next month, but the battle of

:33:25.:33:27.

Scotland will not be decided this year or even next year. This is a

:33:28.:33:31.

matter for five years, ten year down the line. Thank you both very much

:33:32.:33:33.

indeed. Let's hand over now

:33:34.:33:34.

to David Grossman in Stevenage. Welcome to the Cromwell Hotel

:33:35.:33:38.

in old Stevenage, a coaching in since the 16th century and once

:33:39.:33:46.

the home of Oliver Cromwell's One secret nobody knows yet

:33:47.:33:49.

is where this seat is heading It's currently Conservative,

:33:50.:33:56.

but If Jeremy Corbyn can take it back, history suggests

:33:57.:34:04.

he should be on course to win the election,

:34:05.:34:06.

it's around 50 on any ARCHIVE NEWSREEL: Where better

:34:07.:34:08.

to recapture the spirit of these ventures than at Stevenage,

:34:09.:34:12.

Hertfordshire, where in the town centre, known as phase one

:34:13.:34:14.

of the overall plan... A new town to help solve Britain's

:34:15.:34:16.

post-war housing problems. The new A1 motorway and aerospace

:34:17.:34:24.

jobs gave it a futuristic feel. It was the sort of place

:34:25.:34:30.

Harold Wilson had high hopes for. The Britain that is going to be

:34:31.:34:35.

forged in the white heat The answer to that is rather rude

:34:36.:34:37.

to a minority of people... In 1964, a young hopeful

:34:38.:34:41.

Shirley Williams became MP for the area, although boundary

:34:42.:34:47.

changes mean it is a Since the seat of Stevenage

:34:48.:34:49.

was created, whichever party has won here has gone

:34:50.:34:54.

on to win the country. The victory of millionaire

:34:55.:34:58.

Blairite Barbara Follett in 1997 was emblematic

:34:59.:35:05.

of New Labour's triumph. At the last general election,

:35:06.:35:11.

the Conservatives got 44.5% of the vote, with Labour

:35:12.:35:13.

ten points behind. The Conservative majority of a shade

:35:14.:35:20.

under 5000 votes may seem like a big enough mountain for Labour to scale

:35:21.:35:23.

on its own, but consider this. At the last general election,

:35:24.:35:28.

Ukip polled 6,800 votes here, and many of them could now

:35:29.:35:30.

be in play. And according to the most

:35:31.:35:37.

authoritative academic analysis, this area, Stevenage,

:35:38.:35:40.

voted strongly to leave the EU. Another straw in the wind that

:35:41.:35:45.

will make Labour sweat, as last week's local elections

:35:46.:35:47.

Labour start of the night with five of the six Stevenage seats

:35:48.:35:52.

on Hertfordshire County Council. By morning they had lost three

:35:53.:35:54.

to the Conservatives. Now although Stevenage is home

:35:55.:36:04.

to plenty of London commuters - it's just 25 minutes on the train

:36:05.:36:07.

to Kings Cross - it's certainly not Lots of companies and

:36:08.:36:10.

organisations do business here. Among them is the wine society,

:36:11.:36:15.

a cooperative that's been making its members happy

:36:16.:36:18.

by the bottle or Where better to assemble a group

:36:19.:36:20.

of politically-engaged residents who have all at one time to voted

:36:21.:36:29.

labour to taste test the current The wine society provided us

:36:30.:36:33.

with some politically themed wines. The first item on our

:36:34.:36:40.

agenda was to pick one That is going to be

:36:41.:36:42.

hard to beat, I think. I'm very glad to say it

:36:43.:36:54.

has got a screw top. I suppose if you were to put me

:36:55.:36:57.

on the line I would probably be I would be fairly central

:36:58.:37:01.

and you could argue may be leaning slightly to the right,

:37:02.:37:06.

but I'm open to listening And seeing as to whether that is

:37:07.:37:08.

the man I want to vote for. In the past I have mainly voted

:37:09.:37:14.

either Liberal Democrat or green. Probably as I have got

:37:15.:37:17.

older I have changed. I have been a Labour voter, I have

:37:18.:37:23.

been a Liberal Democrat voter. I have probably veered a lot more

:37:24.:37:26.

towards the Liberal Democrats. How do you view the Labour Party

:37:27.:37:32.

at the moment, do you see them as someone you might be

:37:33.:37:36.

giving your vote I view the Labour Party as a lot

:37:37.:37:39.

of very different people who have I do not think we should

:37:40.:37:45.

see the Labour Party We are a large group who have come

:37:46.:37:48.

together and band together with the common aim to achieve

:37:49.:37:52.

what we want. I am suspending my decision

:37:53.:37:58.

until I know a bit more But at the moment for me it is very

:37:59.:38:01.

much a leadership election. To be absolutely honest with you,

:38:02.:38:05.

for the longest time I did not, I was one of these people

:38:06.:38:08.

who did not pay much It is only within the past few years

:38:09.:38:11.

where I have noticed how it is affecting the people around me

:38:12.:38:15.

that I have taken And I'm now a fully paid-up

:38:16.:38:18.

member of the Labour Party because Jeremy Corbyn actually

:38:19.:38:23.

grabbed hold of me, as it And those things that

:38:24.:38:26.

I was unhappy about, How do you feel about

:38:27.:38:32.

the Labour Party at this election, are they somebody you might end

:38:33.:38:37.

up voting for? I would not dream whatsoever

:38:38.:38:39.

of voting for the Labour Party as it He may well have, you know,

:38:40.:38:42.

great qualities in Jeremy Corbyn, I think the country need somebody

:38:43.:38:47.

that has gravitas. I think the country needs

:38:48.:38:49.

somebody that can actually I think the Shadow Cabinet

:38:50.:38:52.

is something at the moment that I could not entertain voting for,

:38:53.:39:00.

whether it is John McDonnell, all I think of the front bench team

:39:01.:39:08.

do not have anything that gives me any belief that what

:39:09.:39:12.

they say, I can believe. I think we would be a laughing

:39:13.:39:14.

stock on the world stage. What is going to inform your

:39:15.:39:18.

vote at this election? The focus on our services

:39:19.:39:21.

within the country. I know there is a whole big talk

:39:22.:39:24.

about Brexit and it seems to be an election about Brexit

:39:25.:39:28.

at the minute. You have got the Conservatives

:39:29.:39:32.

saying they are the ones that are going to push for it

:39:33.:39:35.

were the other parties would not. But I feel we are losing track

:39:36.:39:38.

of the services around our local towns and the country and the NHS

:39:39.:39:41.

and things like that. So that is going to be

:39:42.:39:44.

what is important for me. I voted to leave because I

:39:45.:39:46.

think Europe is a con. I didn't vote because there

:39:47.:39:51.

are too many people coming It is a bosses club and I'm

:39:52.:39:54.

not a boss so I didn't If you go into negotiation you need

:39:55.:39:59.

to have a clear idea of what you want and what you're

:40:00.:40:06.

trying to achieve. And what you do not want is being

:40:07.:40:08.

undermined by your own party And I have not seen much evidence

:40:09.:40:11.

of that up until now. I would like to pick up something

:40:12.:40:17.

that Charlie said earlier on, that's actually the general election

:40:18.:40:20.

is not all about Brexit. Brexit is important,

:40:21.:40:23.

but if we are not careful we will lose sight of all the other

:40:24.:40:25.

things that we actually need But Brexit, we have a job to do,

:40:26.:40:28.

we need somebody that's And somebody that actually has a job

:40:29.:40:34.

and gets on and does it. And Theresa May, do you think

:40:35.:40:42.

she has leadership qualities? I think you certainly know

:40:43.:40:44.

what she wants to achieve and I think she certainly has more

:40:45.:40:47.

of the support of party than for Again this five or six weeks I think

:40:48.:40:50.

is the chance to show what they're trying to achieve and how they're

:40:51.:40:57.

going to do it. That was our own, I should say

:40:58.:41:00.

unscientific gathering of voters. There is another month until polling

:41:01.:41:09.

day so everything remains in play even if the polls suggest

:41:10.:41:11.

it's all over. That's it from here,

:41:12.:41:16.

let's go 200 miles back up the A1 While we have been on air, it has

:41:17.:41:34.

emerged that President Trump has sacked James Komi, the director of

:41:35.:41:38.

the FBI, apparently on the advice of Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Mark

:41:39.:41:42.

Urban is back in the studio in London and joins us now. How did

:41:43.:41:47.

this newsbreak? Remarkably, about half an hour go from the White House

:41:48.:41:52.

press secretary Sean Spicer. The correspondence was then released.

:41:53.:41:57.

President Trump sending a letter to director Komi saying he had been

:41:58.:42:01.

terminated, and in a typical Trump fashion, thanking him for saying he

:42:02.:42:06.

wasn't a subject of the investigation into his campaigns

:42:07.:42:12.

Russia ties, and putting the onus on his Attorney General. That put the

:42:13.:42:17.

onus on the deputy Attorney General, who actually said the director of

:42:18.:42:22.

the FBI was being fired because he had declared Hillary Clinton to be

:42:23.:42:27.

in the clear last summer on the e-mail saga, and that shouldn't have

:42:28.:42:35.

been done by an FBI director, said the deputy Attorney General. Where

:42:36.:42:44.

does this leave the FBI? Locked, as you can see, in this battle with the

:42:45.:42:48.

Justice Department, whoever succeeds, there is this trial going

:42:49.:42:53.

on, it is a bureaucratic trough of dominance, the Justice Department

:42:54.:42:59.

plays that role of the Director of Public Prosecutions, in this country

:43:00.:43:03.

they decide these things. At this incredibly sensitive time when the

:43:04.:43:07.

FBI is investigating allegations of ties between President Trump's

:43:08.:43:11.

campaign and Russian intelligence, and there is also the whole

:43:12.:43:15.

political background to this. People on all sides of this has been

:43:16.:43:18.

blaming James Comey. Hillary Clinton blamed him for flip-flopping on the

:43:19.:43:23.

e-mails issued just before the election. An extraordinary crisis

:43:24.:43:28.

really leaving big questions for whoever takes the helm at the FBI

:43:29.:43:32.

about how they keep the Russia investigation credible. Mark, thank

:43:33.:43:39.

you. I dare say we will have more on that tomorrow, but that is it for

:43:40.:43:41.

tonight. In case you didn't know,

:43:42.:43:44.

today was the first day of nominations if you want to stand

:43:45.:43:46.

as a candidate in You have till Thursday at 4pm

:43:47.:43:49.

to make your intentions known We dug up a little guide to how

:43:50.:43:54.

in the Pathe library which we feel hasn't dated

:43:55.:44:00.

at all since it was made in 1950. Any potential candidate must be

:44:01.:44:03.

a British subject over 21 and sponsored by ten voters

:44:04.:44:08.

in the district. He must deliver his nomination

:44:09.:44:11.

papers to the returning officer and deposit ?150 in cash as proof

:44:12.:44:13.

of his serious intention. This is a precaution against

:44:14.:44:20.

the waste of public time and money. Freak candidates are dissuaded

:44:21.:44:24.

by this deposit, because the money is forfeited if the candidate fails

:44:25.:44:26.

to poll more than one eighth Let us think before we vote,

:44:27.:44:29.

and if you can't think, But in fact, few independent

:44:30.:44:36.

candidates are freaks. Often they are well

:44:37.:44:46.

known public figures. For example, Commander

:44:47.:44:47.

Stephen King-Hall. Good evening. The skies are clear,

:44:48.:45:05.

it is turning chilly. The good news is that Wednesday is looking

:45:06.:45:08.

beautiful across most of the UK, but it will be a chilly start. These are

:45:09.:45:13.

the temperatures first thing on Wednesday in city centres. These

:45:14.:45:19.

temperatures just outside of town, enough for some grass frost in rural

:45:20.:45:26.

areas. Mind the sunshine, it is strong this time of year, just as

:45:27.:45:30.

strong as it is in July, so you might burn if you are out for a

:45:31.:45:35.

lengthy period of time. There will be cloud around in northern parts of

:45:36.:45:38.

Scotland, but other than that it is looking like a stunning afternoon,

:45:39.:45:42.

and a fine evening on the way as well, Wednesday night into Thursday.

:45:43.:45:47.

Then it is all change from Thursday onwards, we are anticipating thicker

:45:48.:45:52.

cloud drifting in from the south-west and we will start to see

:45:53.:45:56.

the cloud building, showers affecting southern counties, some of

:45:57.:45:58.

them moving into Wales and the Midlands, but most of them should be

:45:59.:46:05.

light, many of us with a dry and sunny day again on Thursday, with

:46:06.:46:09.

humidity rising, and you will notice that certainly by the time we get to

:46:10.:46:13.

Friday, it will feel close, and there is a risk of some

:46:14.:46:15.

thunderstorms developing almost anywhere across England and Wales.

:46:16.:46:20.

Temperatures despite the cloud and rain will get up to 90 degrees in

:46:21.:46:23.

the south, teams in the North, but

:46:24.:46:24.

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