08/05/2017 Newsnight


08/05/2017

Analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Emily Maitlis and Evan Davis. The French election - what now for left and right?


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Tough on Marine Le Pen, so can he now be tough

:00:00.:00:08.

Here in France, they have a fresh start, but a lot of stale

:00:09.:00:17.

Much hope rests on President Macron succeeding in reform where previous

:00:18.:00:22.

It's the last bullet of the pro-globalisation forces.

:00:23.:00:29.

If it succeeds, both anti-system voting will decrease,

:00:30.:00:31.

the xenophobic one, Marine Le Pen, and the alter-globalisation

:00:32.:00:34.

But if it doesn't succeed, then the question will only be

:00:35.:00:41.

which anti-system voting will overthrow the system.

:00:42.:00:45.

And I hear from this former Socialist candidate for president

:00:46.:00:48.

And does that mean the centre now back in vogue?

:00:49.:00:56.

What does Macron's success mean for political movements outside France?

:00:57.:00:59.

In particular, what are the lessons for the British Labour Party?

:01:00.:01:03.

And we're joined by the poet, Kate Tempest.

:01:04.:01:13.

Carcinogenic, epileptic, post-traumatic, bipolar and

:01:14.:01:20.

disaffected. Atomised, thinking we're engaged, staring at the screen

:01:21.:01:26.

so we don't have to see the planet diet.

:01:27.:01:36.

Hello, welcome back to Paris, at the end of the long 2017 French

:01:37.:01:39.

And at the start of a new phase in modern French political history.

:01:40.:01:43.

Emmanuel Macron is obviously a big deal for this country,

:01:44.:01:46.

a fresh face, a reformer, he's leading a new party

:01:47.:01:48.

But he is also now an important player in the world.

:01:49.:01:53.

His bigger than expected win is a tonic for depressed liberal

:01:54.:01:56.

The opposite of Trump, he's a man who didn't shy away

:01:57.:02:04.

from his pro-European views, his desire to keep the border open,

:02:05.:02:06.

his belief in trade, his adherence to a tolerant, open society.

:02:07.:02:09.

Unlike some others, he beat the far right by taking on its arguments,

:02:10.:02:12.

For the Front National, a very disappointing night indeed,

:02:13.:02:25.

the task of detoxifying the brand, barely half complete.

:02:26.:02:27.

This video of Marine Le Pen dancing away her disappointment last night,

:02:28.:02:29.

was perhaps the first step towards trying to soften the image.

:02:30.:02:34.

As for Macron, his party is his creation, a political

:02:35.:02:38.

start-up that has reached a sky-high valuation in no time.

:02:39.:02:41.

But he has yet to actually deliver a working product.

:02:42.:02:45.

The election night rally, where supporters dare to dream

:02:46.:02:59.

and their expectations are elevated, even if they're all a bit

:03:00.:03:03.

But does Macron have a real plan to change France?

:03:04.:03:12.

We don't know about the future or the exact plans, but I know

:03:13.:03:15.

that this is the first election where I'm voting for a candidate

:03:16.:03:18.

It's really good news for France and Europe.

:03:19.:03:23.

Oh, my God, don't ask me that kind of question.

:03:24.:03:32.

The morning after, 25 miles away from those celebrations,

:03:33.:03:35.

this is where the work needs to get going, one of those bits

:03:36.:03:38.

of Paris that knows what deindustrialisation is.

:03:39.:03:42.

This park overlooks an old Peugeot factory.

:03:43.:03:46.

What everybody says that Macron's problem is the parliament,

:03:47.:03:51.

the National Assembly, that he has to get a majority

:03:52.:03:55.

And that is undoubtedly true, but that's just the half of it,

:03:56.:04:01.

because the real problem is to come up with ideas, with policies that

:04:02.:04:04.

are actually going to work, that are going to deliver economic

:04:05.:04:08.

life to parts of the country that have had it difficult

:04:09.:04:11.

in the last few decades, and to do so on a timescale that

:04:12.:04:14.

matches people's current impatience for change.

:04:15.:04:20.

This is Aulnay-sous-Bois, where the left-wing populist

:04:21.:04:22.

Jean-Luc Melenchon has a high level of support.

:04:23.:04:27.

This couple seem to encapsulate the division France faces.

:04:28.:04:34.

TRANSLATION: We don't share the same views of Macron.

:04:35.:04:37.

It will be very tough for the poorest people.

:04:38.:04:41.

There will be new decrees in the summer that will hurt them.

:04:42.:04:46.

TRANSLATION: But he's aware of new technology, of the changes

:04:47.:04:48.

He knows about young people, social networks and what all that

:04:49.:04:52.

I think his problems will start very soon.

:04:53.:04:59.

I know people who voted for Melenchon who will be

:05:00.:05:02.

He voted Front National, mainly because they're

:05:03.:05:08.

tough on crime and drugs, but also on economic grounds.

:05:09.:05:14.

Do you think Macron can deliver change?

:05:15.:05:18.

To change the situation, he needs 20 or 30 years.

:05:19.:05:25.

Today, Macron met Francois Hollande at VE Day commemorations.

:05:26.:05:33.

Hollande was one who tried to change the country,

:05:34.:05:35.

but stalled in the face of the famous French resistance.

:05:36.:05:41.

The guy is so determined, and our institutions

:05:42.:05:44.

give him the opportunity to implement his agenda whatever it

:05:45.:05:46.

takes, but it means we have a really high risk of political turmoil

:05:47.:05:50.

You can't overestimate how important this is for the future of the EU

:05:51.:05:57.

It's the last bullet of the pro-globalisation forces.

:05:58.:06:03.

If it succeeds, both anti-system votes will decrease,

:06:04.:06:07.

the xenophobic one, Marine Le Pen, and the alter-globalisation

:06:08.:06:10.

But if it doesn't succeed, then the question will only be

:06:11.:06:16.

which anti-system voting will overthrow the system.

:06:17.:06:20.

The French have often had a tendency to deride

:06:21.:06:22.

Anglo-Saxon economics, but here they are, they've

:06:23.:06:25.

elected someone who's cut of rather Anglo-Saxon cloth.

:06:26.:06:29.

Some would say that's just as Britain is moving

:06:30.:06:32.

in the opposite direction, but it means that Macron talks

:06:33.:06:34.

about labour market flexibility, reforming the European Union.

:06:35.:06:39.

He talks about technology and start-ups, business

:06:40.:06:41.

and enterprise, all the stuff that we've heard about.

:06:42.:06:45.

If defeating populism is your game, that particular

:06:46.:06:50.

combination of measures, well, it hasn't been

:06:51.:06:54.

altogether successful in the Anglo-Saxon countries.

:06:55.:06:59.

At least Monsieur Macron understands the task at hand,

:07:00.:07:02.

with words for those who voted for his rival.

:07:03.:07:05.

TRANSLATION: Don't whistle, don't heckle.

:07:06.:07:12.

They express anger, confusion, and sometimes conviction.

:07:13.:07:20.

But I will do all I can during the next five years to ensure

:07:21.:07:23.

there will no longer be a need to vote for extremes.

:07:24.:07:28.

At times, he looked nervous last night, and well he might be.

:07:29.:07:32.

His crowd may party, but winning a battle

:07:33.:07:35.

against Marine Le Pen is not the same as winning the war.

:07:36.:07:38.

His task is immense, to solve the problems that draw

:07:39.:07:41.

It's interesting to ask statistically, what proportion

:07:42.:07:51.

of great new hopes end in disappointment.

:07:52.:07:54.

And will Mr Macron nudge those stats one way or the other?

:07:55.:07:57.

Whatever the outcome, for now, the French have

:07:58.:08:04.

leapfrogged everybody else in reconfiguring their politics.

:08:05.:08:06.

Humiliating old parties, welcoming the new.

:08:07.:08:07.

For the left this has been a humiliating election;

:08:08.:08:10.

so earlier today I sat down with Segolene Royal,

:08:11.:08:12.

who was the socialist candidate for President ten years ago.

:08:13.:08:21.

She's currently a government minister, one of the biggest figures

:08:22.:08:26.

in French politics on the left. I asked if she was happy about the

:08:27.:08:28.

victory of Macron. TRANSLATION: Yes, I'm very happy

:08:29.:08:31.

firstly because he's a very young president and a sign of especially

:08:32.:08:33.

for the young generation, and secondly because he's widened

:08:34.:08:36.

the gap with the far right. Did you vote for him

:08:37.:08:43.

in the first round? You voted for him

:08:44.:08:45.

in the second round. And you didn't vote

:08:46.:08:47.

for your Socialist No, but I didn't harm

:08:48.:08:50.

the Socialist candidate. Some people publicly endorsed

:08:51.:08:54.

Emmanuel Macron for the first round, but I didn't

:08:55.:09:01.

want to because it's not for me to denigrate

:09:02.:09:04.

the Socialist candidate. That's why I waited until the second

:09:05.:09:10.

round to say anything. I must ask you about the left

:09:11.:09:14.

in politics in France, in much of the world,

:09:15.:09:17.

because we are in a state We have Melenchon,

:09:18.:09:19.

anti-Europe left, he was more disposed to

:09:20.:09:40.

Europe and his left. Can the left carry on functioning

:09:41.:09:42.

with all these different views towards globalisation

:09:43.:09:45.

and all this confusion? Yes, there is confusion

:09:46.:09:46.

because the traditional parties are breaking apart and thing

:09:47.:09:48.

on the right. You've got the far right,

:09:49.:09:55.

the nationalist right, the pro-Liberal right

:09:56.:09:57.

and the centre-right And the same thing is happening

:09:58.:09:58.

on the left and the right, So do you think France

:09:59.:10:07.

is in the middle now of a major The French people voted

:10:08.:10:13.

for the centre, but the extreme parties have become more radicalised

:10:14.:10:20.

with a very powerful So we need to be very careful

:10:21.:10:22.

about how the country is governed, because people need to feel included

:10:23.:10:30.

in a new economic, social and environmental model so we have

:10:31.:10:34.

consensus around projects and ideas. You've got elections

:10:35.:10:44.

coming up in June. What is going to happen

:10:45.:10:46.

in those elections? Are the parties going to work

:10:47.:10:48.

together after the election to support the new president

:10:49.:10:52.

if he doesn't have a majority We will see next week,

:10:53.:10:56.

when the candidates are known. Of course Emmanuel Macron wants

:10:57.:11:06.

a majority in parliament, but other politicians

:11:07.:11:08.

are considering the option of the Socialist Party

:11:09.:11:12.

and En Marche!, and the Republicans We don't know whether the president

:11:13.:11:15.

will have a majority, so we will just have to see how it

:11:16.:11:28.

all works out. Do you think he can really make

:11:29.:11:31.

the French fall in love The French have never

:11:32.:11:34.

loved this, have they? Can he persuade the French

:11:35.:11:37.

that this is for them? The British have taken

:11:38.:11:39.

it for decades, but do you think the French

:11:40.:11:43.

can become like that, Take the Paris climate

:11:44.:11:45.

change conference. People finally understood

:11:46.:11:49.

the globalised nature The French people realise that

:11:50.:11:51.

globalisation can offer economic advantages and innovation,

:11:52.:11:59.

but as in the United Kingdom, there are plenty of people suffering

:12:00.:12:01.

from the effects of globalisation through immigration and low wages

:12:02.:12:04.

because of competition, and there are silent pockets of such

:12:05.:12:09.

people in the United Kingdom as well who are living in poverty due

:12:10.:12:12.

to poorly implemented globalisation. So it's not so much a question

:12:13.:12:19.

of being for or against it, but what type of globalisation

:12:20.:12:22.

is good for a country. Look at the UK local

:12:23.:12:24.

elections last week, and you see evidence that

:12:25.:12:35.

Theresa May saw off Ukip in her way, by talking enough of their language

:12:36.:12:38.

to appeal to Ukip voters. Mr Corbyn has responded

:12:39.:12:41.

to populism too, taking on some Macron has gone about it very

:12:42.:12:43.

differently to either Not for the first time,

:12:44.:12:49.

whatever happens in the UK election, Britain and France will be

:12:50.:12:55.

following different paths. Some have called Emmanuel Macron

:12:56.:12:57.

the Accidental President, the man who emerged from the morass

:12:58.:13:06.

of unelectable candidates from the traditional right

:13:07.:13:09.

and the socialist left. The staunch globalist,

:13:10.:13:12.

staunch Europhile, must address the concerns of all those who wanted

:13:13.:13:15.

the very opposite from So how will he chose

:13:16.:13:18.

to redefine the centre left? Joining me now Chuka Umunna,

:13:19.:13:23.

who knows Emmaneual Macron personally, and Aditya Chakrobortty,

:13:24.:13:27.

who writes on Jeremy Corbyn Chuka, you talked to him when he

:13:28.:13:45.

first said he was going to run. I just want to get inside that

:13:46.:13:50.

conversation. Did it sound like he had a chance? Well, I don't want to

:13:51.:13:53.

betray confidences, but they have obviously got a different

:13:54.:13:56.

constitution there. So if you are going to start something fresh like

:13:57.:14:01.

En Marche!, it is possible under the French constitution, a presidential

:14:02.:14:04.

system. If you were to try to do something like that here, aside from

:14:05.:14:08.

whether that is desirable, I am not sure our constitution allows for it.

:14:09.:14:11.

But he also tapped into something which is felt as much in France as

:14:12.:14:16.

it is here. If you go to Prime Minister's Questions in France, it

:14:17.:14:19.

is not so different to ours, very adversarial, very tribal. And I

:14:20.:14:24.

think that switch is a lot of people off. Emmanuel Macron has sought to

:14:25.:14:30.

go, I haven't got time for all this nonsense where we just oppose each

:14:31.:14:34.

other for the sake of it. What do we need to do to get things done? And

:14:35.:14:38.

there is something incredibly appealing about that message. Surely

:14:39.:14:45.

every politician says we need to get things done. It is more moving

:14:46.:14:52.

beyond the kind of Labour- Tory, left-right thing. I have spent my

:14:53.:15:00.

entire adult life listening to politicians who keep likening

:15:01.:15:02.

themselves to being chief executives or business people, but somehow just

:15:03.:15:07.

get into politics by accident. I don't think we want that in Britain.

:15:08.:15:13.

But I was asked, what is Emmanuel Macron like? I agree with you. Being

:15:14.:15:16.

in government is not like being a CEO. But the truth is, what he has

:15:17.:15:22.

done successfully is pretend that there was no party connected to him.

:15:23.:15:26.

We know he was with Hollande's party for the last few years so in a funny

:15:27.:15:31.

way, it is a con. Trump did the same thing, pretend you're not part of a

:15:32.:15:35.

party. Is that what people need to see, a politician who seems detached

:15:36.:15:39.

from whatever they think is a traditional party? Steady on.

:15:40.:15:45.

Firstly, given a choice as a French voter between a fascist, Marine Le

:15:46.:15:50.

Pen, and Macron, you would go from Macron. If you think of it in the

:15:51.:15:54.

context of our own left, even a telegenic 39-year-old man who talks

:15:55.:15:59.

a good talk, if you picked him even against someone of the great sexual

:16:00.:16:04.

magnetism of Simon Danczuk, you would go from Macron, right? The

:16:05.:16:08.

problem is that he is offering a kind of reheated centrism which has

:16:09.:16:13.

failed. And in the context of British politics, what we have now

:16:14.:16:21.

is Theresa May, who keeps flirting with Ukip. And you have Jeremy

:16:22.:16:28.

Corbyn. Is right that anyone standing against Marine Le Pen in

:16:29.:16:37.

the second round would have won? Not necessarily. But what I want to say

:16:38.:16:41.

is, could we have a Macron situation here? Could some bright young spark,

:16:42.:16:47.

somebody who once considered standing for the leadership, go off

:16:48.:16:50.

and become the Macron of the British Labour Party? The context here is

:16:51.:16:55.

very different. If you look at the basic method, married together

:16:56.:17:00.

economic competence and social justice and a desire to just get

:17:01.:17:05.

things done, that was very much it. If people believe centrism is

:17:06.:17:08.

something, that is what it is seen as. In some respects, there are lots

:17:09.:17:12.

of things he wants to do that Labour people would feel unpottable with,

:17:13.:17:19.

like investing in infrastructure and entrepreneurship -- things that

:17:20.:17:22.

Labour people would feel comfortable with. But the other part of the

:17:23.:17:27.

equation, where it is different is that he wants to cut 120,000 people

:17:28.:17:31.

from the public sector in France. Their public sector is different to

:17:32.:17:35.

ours and we wouldn't want to do that here. He also wants to further

:17:36.:17:38.

liberalise their employment laws. We wouldn't want to do that here,

:17:39.:17:42.

partly because it's a different context. The point is that if you

:17:43.:17:47.

take Jeremy Corbyn, he is asking the right questions for our time. He is

:17:48.:17:53.

looking at the unions and the grassroots and questions of fairness

:17:54.:17:58.

and inequality. Jeremy? Yes. I agree. Then why is there a struggle

:17:59.:18:06.

within Labour over the way he is asking these questions? If everyone

:18:07.:18:09.

agrees that we are in a situation where there is too much distrust of

:18:10.:18:14.

old-fashioned policies, is the centre pretty dead here for the

:18:15.:18:22.

left? Totally. Come June the 8th, I dare Chuka to disagree with me on

:18:23.:18:27.

this, Labour will take an absolute pounding. On June the 9th, what you

:18:28.:18:30.

will see across newspaper commentary and within the Labour Party is that

:18:31.:18:34.

this is all the fault of the guy in charge. We need someone a bit more

:18:35.:18:37.

fluent and professional, and that will make things work. Actually, go

:18:38.:18:42.

around the Labour heartlands, I have just come back from south Wales,

:18:43.:18:45.

which Labour used are basically run. They assumed it was theirs. If you

:18:46.:18:50.

look at it now, Wales is perhaps on the verge of voting Conservative for

:18:51.:18:54.

the first time in almost 100 years. And if you look at why that is, all

:18:55.:19:00.

the mechanisms that people used to rely upon as delivering voters to

:19:01.:19:04.

the Labour Party, the unions, the social clubs, the industries, they

:19:05.:19:08.

have all gone. I went to Bridgend, one of the key targets for Tories.

:19:09.:19:13.

Even the Labour social club shut down years ago. So is Jeremy Corbyn

:19:14.:19:19.

right to say, as he did today, that if he doesn't win the election in

:19:20.:19:23.

June, he said, I was elected leader and I will stay as leader. He still

:19:24.:19:28.

believes he is the one who speaks for the masses and he has the right

:19:29.:19:35.

message. Well, let's see what the vote is -- what the result is. No

:19:36.:19:40.

vote has been cast yet. We have to think about the future of the Labour

:19:41.:19:44.

Party. We want to get the Labour Party into government. But I take

:19:45.:19:48.

issue here. What is the centre? I don't upset about that. I want to

:19:49.:19:52.

get the Labour Party back into government. Has touched on something

:19:53.:19:56.

we don't have time to talk about on your programme. The biggest

:19:57.:19:59.

challenge the Labour Party has faced is that the thing that connected it

:20:00.:20:04.

to its communities, which was the trade union movements, mass

:20:05.:20:09.

organised workplaces, that has gone. Aditya, does Labour stick with the

:20:10.:20:15.

left? Centrist politics and economics have killed off Labour

:20:16.:20:21.

heartlands. Why would we vote Labour? If you think you can take

:20:22.:20:27.

South Wales for granted while you go off flirting... But national minimum

:20:28.:20:34.

wage, Sure Start, record investment, that is left. Thank you both very

:20:35.:20:43.

much. We have run out of time. We are going to leave Labour to one

:20:44.:20:45.

side. We know it will say strong

:20:46.:20:46.

and we know it will say stable, but next week we finally get to see

:20:47.:20:49.

what else is inside The big question for Theresa May

:20:50.:20:52.

perhaps is this one, On the back of last week's Local

:20:53.:20:56.

election results the Conservatives could be forgiven for thinking

:20:57.:21:01.

they had a mandate to In a moment, we'll ask

:21:02.:21:04.

about immigration. First, Chris Cook looks

:21:05.:21:08.

at the fundamentals underlying the polling to see what they tell us

:21:09.:21:10.

about the campaign. Pollsters aren't the British

:21:11.:21:14.

public's most trusted source But there are some things we can say

:21:15.:21:17.

about this election campaign The first thing you need

:21:18.:21:23.

to know about this general The Conservative Party called it,

:21:24.:21:33.

and they did so because they expect If you look at recent polling

:21:34.:21:39.

averages, the Tories are on around 43 percentage points,

:21:40.:21:44.

against Labour's 27 That's a 16 percentage point gap,

:21:45.:21:46.

way up from the 7-point lead the Tories had

:21:47.:21:54.

at the 2015 general election. That big Tory lead is being driven

:21:55.:22:01.

by two sorts of movements of voter. First of all, there's been

:22:02.:22:04.

a transfer of Ukip voters So, Ukip won around 13% of the vote

:22:05.:22:07.

at the last general election, And the main beneficiaries of that

:22:08.:22:13.

fall are the Tories. You could spot that at last

:22:14.:22:19.

week's local elections. Take Norfolk, where until last week,

:22:20.:22:22.

there were 40 Tory councillors Second, there's also been

:22:23.:22:27.

a significant shift in people who have moved across to the Tories

:22:28.:22:42.

from other parties. Across the UK, that's

:22:43.:22:44.

around 4% of people. But that flow is most

:22:45.:22:52.

striking in Scotland, where the party's moved from 15%

:22:53.:22:54.

at the last general election A flow that largely came from Labour

:22:55.:22:57.

unionists moving to the Tory party. That Scottish Tory surge comes just

:22:58.:23:02.

as the SNP support has And those two things together mean

:23:03.:23:05.

there are around a dozen Scottish seats where the Tories have

:23:06.:23:16.

to be taken seriously. There's a real complication

:23:17.:23:18.

in reading Scotland, though, There are, for example, two seats

:23:19.:23:23.

where, if the Liberal Democrats can convince Conservative

:23:24.:23:28.

and Labour Unionists to lend them a quarter of their votes,

:23:29.:23:30.

they'll take those seats That tactical voting bloc could be

:23:31.:23:33.

an enormous force multiplier Another voter shift that some people

:23:34.:23:38.

have been expecting is a movement towards the Liberal Democrats,

:23:39.:23:47.

as the only UK-wide But so far, there's not been much

:23:48.:23:52.

evidence of much movement. There was, however, a glimmer

:23:53.:23:58.

of hope for them in last There was some evidence that

:23:59.:24:00.

higher educated areas were turning out more strongly

:24:01.:24:06.

for the Liberal Democrats That's good news for

:24:07.:24:08.

them in some places. It's possible that the Lib Dems

:24:09.:24:16.

might hold onto Richmond Park, which they recently took

:24:17.:24:19.

in a by-election, and perhaps take But several of their seats are also

:24:20.:24:21.

vulnerable to that Tory surge. Norman Lamb, who ran

:24:22.:24:25.

for Lib Dem leader, They might lose Carshalton and

:24:26.:24:29.

Wallington, and Southport as well. And that might be this

:24:30.:24:36.

election in a nutshell, a high Conservative tide that

:24:37.:24:39.

doesn't spare any Well, today, as Ukip vowed to reduce

:24:40.:24:41.

net migration to zero, Theresa May returned

:24:42.:24:51.

to the immigration policy She repeated the Conservative pledge

:24:52.:24:53.

of 2015 which promised, and failed, to reduce net migration

:24:54.:24:56.

to below 100,000. I think it is important

:24:57.:25:00.

that we continue, and we will continue to say that we do

:25:01.:25:03.

want to bring net migration down We believe that is

:25:04.:25:06.

the tens of thousands. And of course, once we leave

:25:07.:25:09.

the European Union, we do And of course, once we leave

:25:10.:25:23.

the European Union, we will have the opportunity to ensure

:25:24.:25:26.

that we have control of our borders here in the UK,

:25:27.:25:28.

because we will be able to establish our rules

:25:29.:25:31.

for people coming from That's a part of the picture

:25:32.:25:33.

we haven't been able to control before, and we will be able

:25:34.:25:37.

to control it. Leaving the EU means

:25:38.:25:40.

that we won't have free movement Or a brazenly political need

:25:41.:25:42.

to talk about achieving it Shortly before coming on air,

:25:43.:25:49.

I spoke to former Tory leader and Welfare Secretary Iain Duncan

:25:50.:25:52.

Smith. I asked him whether getting net

:25:53.:25:54.

migration into the tens of thousands Clearly, I don't know

:25:55.:25:57.

what's in the manifesto. But if the report is correct,

:25:58.:26:02.

then I believe it will be. Because the principle of having

:26:03.:26:07.

a target is that you work towards that over a period of time,

:26:08.:26:10.

and make sure you try You're talking about working

:26:11.:26:13.

towards something, hang on a sec, if this goes in the manifesto,

:26:14.:26:20.

don't the public have the right If you don't have a target,

:26:21.:26:23.

and you don't seek to achieve that target, then what happens is,

:26:24.:26:29.

you lose control of migration. Until we leave the European Union,

:26:30.:26:32.

we have an open door policy with the European Union,

:26:33.:26:34.

and most of that migration, the vast majority of migration

:26:35.:26:37.

from the European Union was low And therefore, controlling that

:26:38.:26:39.

will allow us to get the right balance of high skills that we need,

:26:40.:26:44.

but controlling very much the low skilled migration that was coming

:26:45.:26:47.

into the country unchecked before. You say that that's the real

:26:48.:26:49.

problem, but you know it 160,000 of that is

:26:50.:26:52.

from outside the EU. So under this target,

:26:53.:27:01.

this maintain target, you'd still have double the number

:27:02.:27:03.

that you want. That's from outside the EU,

:27:04.:27:05.

that's got nothing to do Of course, but then you assume

:27:06.:27:07.

straight away that that means In other words, that somehow

:27:08.:27:11.

when you control the European stuff, everything on the other side

:27:12.:27:17.

remains the same. The point about a new migration

:27:18.:27:19.

policy based on work permits with maybe caps involved,

:27:20.:27:22.

means that you control all of the migration

:27:23.:27:24.

in exactly the same way, That gives the Government

:27:25.:27:26.

greater power to be able to control that target,

:27:27.:27:30.

to get it within a set target I believe it is achievable,

:27:31.:27:33.

it was achievable through the '90s and there's no reason why

:27:34.:27:42.

we shouldn't get back to it. If you want to get that

:27:43.:27:44.

down significantly, Will you cut the student

:27:45.:27:48.

numbers and the money Will you cut high-value migrants,

:27:49.:27:52.

NHS staff, the people that fill Now that when we leave

:27:53.:28:00.

the European Union will be able to control the whole of migration,

:28:01.:28:12.

which allows you to have a work permit system that says OK,

:28:13.:28:15.

the low number, high-value areas such as scientists, academics,

:28:16.:28:17.

people who are working in the software industry or even

:28:18.:28:19.

in intercompany transfers in the City, these are the people

:28:20.:28:21.

adding massive value to the economy. The problem was, we had a huge

:28:22.:28:25.

number of low value, low skilled These people, for the most part,

:28:26.:28:28.

were not adding value. If you look at the figures, it shows

:28:29.:28:31.

they claimed more in benefits than they offered up

:28:32.:28:35.

in terms of taxation. The key difference is to get control

:28:36.:28:38.

of the numbers of the low value, and encourage UK business to stop

:28:39.:28:41.

just looking abroad for the easy You're suggesting pretty much

:28:42.:28:44.

then 170,000 scroungers? 170,000 people adding no

:28:45.:28:52.

value to the economy? No, if you look at the figures,

:28:53.:28:56.

and these figures are clear, they were published by the HMRC

:28:57.:28:58.

a few months ago, they showed if you collate this together,

:28:59.:29:05.

that the low skilled end of the migration, which made up

:29:06.:29:07.

the majority of European migration, particularly from elements

:29:08.:29:13.

of eastern Europe, what that amounted to was that they took

:29:14.:29:15.

more in benefits than In the other area where people

:29:16.:29:17.

had high-level skills, they paid above-average taxation

:29:18.:29:22.

and therefore added value. Getting the balance right

:29:23.:29:28.

about what the UK economy needs, while controlling

:29:29.:29:30.

the numbers, is critical. This isn't ending migration,

:29:31.:29:33.

but controlling it. You got the numbers down

:29:34.:29:35.

when the economy was suffering Yes, but the whole point about this

:29:36.:29:37.

is, the growth in the economy cannot We need to change the model,

:29:38.:29:46.

which is what the Prime Minister wants to do with regards

:29:47.:29:54.

to an industrial policy. We need to be able to get British

:29:55.:29:56.

companies to invest more in skilling On far too many occasions,

:29:57.:30:00.

I would come across companies who used to say we can't get anybody

:30:01.:30:07.

to work here. Then you'd find they hadn't even

:30:08.:30:09.

bothered to look for people They had gone straight abroad

:30:10.:30:14.

because they thought it was cheaper. My point is, getting companies

:30:15.:30:18.

to value and recognise the skills in the UK and the skills that

:30:19.:30:21.

are needed, is going to be part of a controlled migration policy

:30:22.:30:25.

that Theresa May is talking about. Could it be that it's not just free

:30:26.:30:28.

movement of people that could end with Brexit,

:30:29.:30:36.

but free movement of parts? The supply chains of the UK's

:30:37.:30:38.

manufacturers, for example, snake all over the continent,

:30:39.:30:40.

where components are routinely sent Now there are concerns that those

:30:41.:30:43.

supply chains could be disrupted after we leave the EU,

:30:44.:30:48.

costing time and of course money. Naga Munchetty has been talking

:30:49.:30:52.

to people in the manufacturing industry about how they're

:30:53.:30:54.

preparing for Brexit. And a warning for any viewers

:30:55.:30:58.

with alysidophobia: this For more than 40 years,

:30:59.:31:00.

the UK has been one of the key links in the EU's supply chain,

:31:01.:31:18.

forging relationships Brexit could be about

:31:19.:31:20.

to break the chain. Manufacturers are wondering how best

:31:21.:31:28.

to maintain crucial trading links So far, they've enjoyed relatively

:31:29.:31:30.

trouble-free trading access with minimal regulation,

:31:31.:31:36.

paperwork and of course, As it seems more and more likely

:31:37.:31:38.

that Brexit will take the EU out of the customs union and the single

:31:39.:31:44.

market, a common fear is that trade will become more costly when the UK

:31:45.:31:48.

becomes the missing link. Manufacturing accounts

:31:49.:31:57.

for 45% of UK exports, Grainger Worrall was set

:31:58.:31:59.

up in 1946 as a family business in Bridgnorth,

:32:00.:32:11.

Shropshire. It makes engine blocks

:32:12.:32:15.

and prototypes for the auto industry, from Formula 1

:32:16.:32:17.

to well-known car-makers It's established a reliable supply

:32:18.:32:19.

chain, which could be shaken It's really important for us

:32:20.:32:23.

that we can move parts quickly Three brothers, the third generation

:32:24.:32:32.

of the family now at the wheel. They employ more than 600 people,

:32:33.:32:42.

with an annual turnover of more than ?50 million,

:32:43.:32:45.

supplying up to 100 Looking at those partners, they're

:32:46.:32:47.

questioning what's going to happen, what could be the challenges we'll

:32:48.:32:53.

face going forward, Making one of the company's engine

:32:54.:32:56.

blocks typically involves it going on a whirlwind trip around

:32:57.:33:00.

Europe as it undergoes various It starts life being cast

:33:01.:33:03.

at the facility in Bridgnorth and after five days,

:33:04.:33:11.

makes its first journey to Italy, where the initial machining

:33:12.:33:13.

of the block takes another five. From there, it's sent to Germany

:33:14.:33:19.

to spend four days being coated. Then it's back to Italy for final

:33:20.:33:23.

machining and assembly, Once more to Germany

:33:24.:33:25.

for three days of honing, before returning to the UK for two

:33:26.:33:31.

days for cleaning Then the finished engine block

:33:32.:33:33.

is delivered to the vehicle manufacturer's plant in France,

:33:34.:33:38.

a journey of around 30 working days How could Brexit affect the supply

:33:39.:33:40.

chain for Grainger Worrall? The cost impact and the knock-on

:33:41.:33:52.

effect, our customers really wouldn't be very pleased if we did

:33:53.:33:54.

delay them an extra half week. Half a week is not a long time,

:33:55.:33:59.

but it sounds as if time If we delay a week here or a few

:34:00.:34:02.

days here, it will start to put They would be looking to see

:34:03.:34:08.

whether they can get those services, or develop suppliers that can do

:34:09.:34:15.

those services within the EU family, And for us to have something

:34:16.:34:21.

that's not going to add value in that chain,

:34:22.:34:32.

ie sitting at border control or waiting for bureaucratic

:34:33.:34:34.

paperwork to be completed There's no time or space for a

:34:35.:34:36.

stop-start system in manufacturing. But businesses may not be able

:34:37.:34:48.

to avoid being dragged If you are importing a product

:34:49.:34:51.

and then exporting it back to the country of origin as part

:34:52.:34:58.

of an assembly, you will need a process for dealing

:34:59.:35:02.

with all of that to make sure that Some companies will have

:35:03.:35:05.

that, but lots won't. Anyone who doesn't do that

:35:06.:35:11.

who thinks that they can muddle on with business as usual,

:35:12.:35:14.

I think will be at a disadvantage. One such company which is assessing

:35:15.:35:19.

how it may have to restructure its business post-Brexit is Magal

:35:20.:35:23.

Engineering. It supplies engine parts

:35:24.:35:27.

for car-makers across the world. It has two plants in the UK,

:35:28.:35:29.

as well as ones in France, Turkey, India, China

:35:30.:35:32.

and an office in Germany. This factory in Reading,

:35:33.:35:38.

Berkshire, imports and exports In order to make this part

:35:39.:35:40.

which controls the temperature of a car and its engine,

:35:41.:35:46.

components are brought So we've got plastic granules

:35:47.:35:48.

filled with glass fibre. We've got a sensor that

:35:49.:35:55.

comes from Germany. We've got copper that

:35:56.:36:00.

comes from France. Then we completely assemble

:36:01.:36:03.

that here, and it goes Again, going with

:36:04.:36:06.

the flow is essential. Founder Gamil says he has

:36:07.:36:12.

capital to spare, ideally However, he may be forced to spend

:36:13.:36:14.

it on swapping which factories produce which goods in order

:36:15.:36:20.

to avoid any onerous tariffs. At the moment, we're

:36:21.:36:26.

importing things from France. But with a lot of things that go

:36:27.:36:28.

from here to France, we will make there or Germany,

:36:29.:36:33.

we will have to make outside of the UK and they will go

:36:34.:36:36.

to France, where we have This is obviously not

:36:37.:36:39.

something that I want to do, because I want to invest in growth

:36:40.:36:42.

and not invest in capital just because I need to move

:36:43.:36:46.

something for tax purposes. There will be pressure to localise

:36:47.:36:50.

more and to do less cross-border transactions and so on,

:36:51.:36:54.

simply in order to maintain cost competitiveness and to keep

:36:55.:36:56.

the supply chain intact. I think it's going to be a headache

:36:57.:37:02.

for a large number of manufacturers. So why not use Brexit to dump

:37:03.:37:07.

existing supply chains and set up A lot of what you might call

:37:08.:37:10.

vocational skills that are required in mechanical engineering

:37:11.:37:17.

and electrical engineering, we just haven't trained

:37:18.:37:19.

enough of those people. Without skilled workers,

:37:20.:37:21.

it will take much longer than the next two years to build

:37:22.:37:25.

a self-sufficient Quite honestly, the skills gap

:37:26.:37:27.

in the UK, I don't know whether it could deliver all the requirements

:37:28.:37:35.

that we want. More time is wanted by the body

:37:36.:37:38.

which represents manufacturers. It says two years isn't enough

:37:39.:37:47.

to ensure a smooth exit and at least five years of transition is needed

:37:48.:37:50.

before we break The cliff edge, in my view,

:37:51.:37:53.

could bring a significant risk of a serious dip in our trade

:37:54.:38:00.

and our output, and with it our GDP. The next two years need to be used

:38:01.:38:09.

to maintain strong relationships with the EU while reaffirming

:38:10.:38:12.

the UK's reputation for being This motorsport culture we have

:38:13.:38:15.

is a can-do culture. You're presented with

:38:16.:38:25.

a problem and in motorsport, here is the problem,

:38:26.:38:27.

the answer is yes and then you Manufacturers recognise

:38:28.:38:30.

that the shape of the supply chain will change, although with strong

:38:31.:38:39.

links already forged, it's hoped that the system

:38:40.:38:42.

will remain joined up We leave you with the acclaimed poet

:38:43.:38:44.

Kate Tempest, who's guest director at this year's Brighton Festival,

:38:45.:38:58.

which opened its doors on Saturday. Here she is with a work

:38:59.:39:01.

entitled Tunnel Vision. You can't face the past,

:39:02.:39:03.

the past's a dark place Can't sleep, can't wake,

:39:04.:39:13.

sitting in our boxes Notching up our victories

:39:14.:39:17.

as other people's losses Another day, another chance

:39:18.:39:21.

to turn our face away from pain Let's get a takeaway, I'll meet

:39:22.:39:25.

you in the pub a little later, When we gonna see that

:39:26.:39:28.

life is happening? And that every single body bleeding

:39:29.:39:36.

on its knees is an abomination And every natural being

:39:37.:39:40.

is making communication And we're just sparks,

:39:41.:39:43.

tiny parts of a bigger constellation We're minuscule molecules

:39:44.:39:49.

that make up one body You see the tragedy and pain

:39:50.:39:54.

of a person that you've never met Is present in your nightmares,

:39:55.:39:58.

in your pull towards despair And the sickness of the culture,

:39:59.:40:02.

and the sickness in our hearts Is a sickness that's inflicted

:40:03.:40:07.

by this distance that we share Now, it was our bombs

:40:08.:40:12.

that started this war And now it rages far away so we

:40:13.:40:15.

dismiss all its victims as strangers But they're parents and children

:40:16.:40:19.

made dogs by the danger Existence is futile,

:40:20.:40:24.

so we don't engage But it was our boats that sailed,

:40:25.:40:28.

killed, stole, and made frail It was our boots that stamped

:40:29.:40:34.

It was our courts that jailed Looked back down at our nails

:40:35.:40:38.

and our wedding plans In the face of a full-force

:40:39.:40:48.

gale, we said: "Well, it's not up to us to make

:40:49.:40:50.

this place a better land It's not up to us to make this

:40:51.:40:53.

place a better land." Justice, justice,

:40:54.:40:56.

recompense, humility Trust is, trust is something

:40:57.:41:00.

we will never see The myth of the individual has left

:41:01.:41:04.

us disconnected, lost, and pitiful I'm pleading with my loved ones

:41:05.:41:13.

to wake up and love more.

:41:14.:41:34.

The French election - what now for left and right?; the UK election and immigration; the cost of Brexit; and poet Kate Tempest live.


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