08/05/2017 Newsnight


Analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Emily Maitlis and Evan Davis. The French election - what now for left and right?

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Tough on Marine Le Pen, so can he now be tough


Here in France, they have a fresh start, but a lot of stale


Much hope rests on President Macron succeeding in reform where previous


It's the last bullet of the pro-globalisation forces.


If it succeeds, both anti-system voting will decrease,


the xenophobic one, Marine Le Pen, and the alter-globalisation


But if it doesn't succeed, then the question will only be


which anti-system voting will overthrow the system.


And I hear from this former Socialist candidate for president


And does that mean the centre now back in vogue?


What does Macron's success mean for political movements outside France?


In particular, what are the lessons for the British Labour Party?


And we're joined by the poet, Kate Tempest.


Carcinogenic, epileptic, post-traumatic, bipolar and


disaffected. Atomised, thinking we're engaged, staring at the screen


so we don't have to see the planet diet.


Hello, welcome back to Paris, at the end of the long 2017 French


And at the start of a new phase in modern French political history.


Emmanuel Macron is obviously a big deal for this country,


a fresh face, a reformer, he's leading a new party


But he is also now an important player in the world.


His bigger than expected win is a tonic for depressed liberal


The opposite of Trump, he's a man who didn't shy away


from his pro-European views, his desire to keep the border open,


his belief in trade, his adherence to a tolerant, open society.


Unlike some others, he beat the far right by taking on its arguments,


For the Front National, a very disappointing night indeed,


the task of detoxifying the brand, barely half complete.


This video of Marine Le Pen dancing away her disappointment last night,


was perhaps the first step towards trying to soften the image.


As for Macron, his party is his creation, a political


start-up that has reached a sky-high valuation in no time.


But he has yet to actually deliver a working product.


The election night rally, where supporters dare to dream


and their expectations are elevated, even if they're all a bit


But does Macron have a real plan to change France?


We don't know about the future or the exact plans, but I know


that this is the first election where I'm voting for a candidate


It's really good news for France and Europe.


Oh, my God, don't ask me that kind of question.


The morning after, 25 miles away from those celebrations,


this is where the work needs to get going, one of those bits


of Paris that knows what deindustrialisation is.


This park overlooks an old Peugeot factory.


What everybody says that Macron's problem is the parliament,


the National Assembly, that he has to get a majority


And that is undoubtedly true, but that's just the half of it,


because the real problem is to come up with ideas, with policies that


are actually going to work, that are going to deliver economic


life to parts of the country that have had it difficult


in the last few decades, and to do so on a timescale that


matches people's current impatience for change.


This is Aulnay-sous-Bois, where the left-wing populist


Jean-Luc Melenchon has a high level of support.


This couple seem to encapsulate the division France faces.


TRANSLATION: We don't share the same views of Macron.


It will be very tough for the poorest people.


There will be new decrees in the summer that will hurt them.


TRANSLATION: But he's aware of new technology, of the changes


He knows about young people, social networks and what all that


I think his problems will start very soon.


I know people who voted for Melenchon who will be


He voted Front National, mainly because they're


tough on crime and drugs, but also on economic grounds.


Do you think Macron can deliver change?


To change the situation, he needs 20 or 30 years.


Today, Macron met Francois Hollande at VE Day commemorations.


Hollande was one who tried to change the country,


but stalled in the face of the famous French resistance.


The guy is so determined, and our institutions


give him the opportunity to implement his agenda whatever it


takes, but it means we have a really high risk of political turmoil


You can't overestimate how important this is for the future of the EU


It's the last bullet of the pro-globalisation forces.


If it succeeds, both anti-system votes will decrease,


the xenophobic one, Marine Le Pen, and the alter-globalisation


But if it doesn't succeed, then the question will only be


which anti-system voting will overthrow the system.


The French have often had a tendency to deride


Anglo-Saxon economics, but here they are, they've


elected someone who's cut of rather Anglo-Saxon cloth.


Some would say that's just as Britain is moving


in the opposite direction, but it means that Macron talks


about labour market flexibility, reforming the European Union.


He talks about technology and start-ups, business


and enterprise, all the stuff that we've heard about.


If defeating populism is your game, that particular


combination of measures, well, it hasn't been


altogether successful in the Anglo-Saxon countries.


At least Monsieur Macron understands the task at hand,


with words for those who voted for his rival.


TRANSLATION: Don't whistle, don't heckle.


They express anger, confusion, and sometimes conviction.


But I will do all I can during the next five years to ensure


there will no longer be a need to vote for extremes.


At times, he looked nervous last night, and well he might be.


His crowd may party, but winning a battle


against Marine Le Pen is not the same as winning the war.


His task is immense, to solve the problems that draw


It's interesting to ask statistically, what proportion


of great new hopes end in disappointment.


And will Mr Macron nudge those stats one way or the other?


Whatever the outcome, for now, the French have


leapfrogged everybody else in reconfiguring their politics.


Humiliating old parties, welcoming the new.


For the left this has been a humiliating election;


so earlier today I sat down with Segolene Royal,


who was the socialist candidate for President ten years ago.


She's currently a government minister, one of the biggest figures


in French politics on the left. I asked if she was happy about the


victory of Macron. TRANSLATION: Yes, I'm very happy


firstly because he's a very young president and a sign of especially


for the young generation, and secondly because he's widened


the gap with the far right. Did you vote for him


in the first round? You voted for him


in the second round. And you didn't vote


for your Socialist No, but I didn't harm


the Socialist candidate. Some people publicly endorsed


Emmanuel Macron for the first round, but I didn't


want to because it's not for me to denigrate


the Socialist candidate. That's why I waited until the second


round to say anything. I must ask you about the left


in politics in France, in much of the world,


because we are in a state We have Melenchon,


anti-Europe left, he was more disposed to


Europe and his left. Can the left carry on functioning


with all these different views towards globalisation


and all this confusion? Yes, there is confusion


because the traditional parties are breaking apart and thing


on the right. You've got the far right,


the nationalist right, the pro-Liberal right


and the centre-right And the same thing is happening


on the left and the right, So do you think France


is in the middle now of a major The French people voted


for the centre, but the extreme parties have become more radicalised


with a very powerful So we need to be very careful


about how the country is governed, because people need to feel included


in a new economic, social and environmental model so we have


consensus around projects and ideas. You've got elections


coming up in June. What is going to happen


in those elections? Are the parties going to work


together after the election to support the new president


if he doesn't have a majority We will see next week,


when the candidates are known. Of course Emmanuel Macron wants


a majority in parliament, but other politicians


are considering the option of the Socialist Party


and En Marche!, and the Republicans We don't know whether the president


will have a majority, so we will just have to see how it


all works out. Do you think he can really make


the French fall in love The French have never


loved this, have they? Can he persuade the French


that this is for them? The British have taken


it for decades, but do you think the French


can become like that, Take the Paris climate


change conference. People finally understood


the globalised nature The French people realise that


globalisation can offer economic advantages and innovation,


but as in the United Kingdom, there are plenty of people suffering


from the effects of globalisation through immigration and low wages


because of competition, and there are silent pockets of such


people in the United Kingdom as well who are living in poverty due


to poorly implemented globalisation. So it's not so much a question


of being for or against it, but what type of globalisation


is good for a country. Look at the UK local


elections last week, and you see evidence that


Theresa May saw off Ukip in her way, by talking enough of their language


to appeal to Ukip voters. Mr Corbyn has responded


to populism too, taking on some Macron has gone about it very


differently to either Not for the first time,


whatever happens in the UK election, Britain and France will be


following different paths. Some have called Emmanuel Macron


the Accidental President, the man who emerged from the morass


of unelectable candidates from the traditional right


and the socialist left. The staunch globalist,


staunch Europhile, must address the concerns of all those who wanted


the very opposite from So how will he chose


to redefine the centre left? Joining me now Chuka Umunna,


who knows Emmaneual Macron personally, and Aditya Chakrobortty,


who writes on Jeremy Corbyn Chuka, you talked to him when he


first said he was going to run. I just want to get inside that


conversation. Did it sound like he had a chance? Well, I don't want to


betray confidences, but they have obviously got a different


constitution there. So if you are going to start something fresh like


En Marche!, it is possible under the French constitution, a presidential


system. If you were to try to do something like that here, aside from


whether that is desirable, I am not sure our constitution allows for it.


But he also tapped into something which is felt as much in France as


it is here. If you go to Prime Minister's Questions in France, it


is not so different to ours, very adversarial, very tribal. And I


think that switch is a lot of people off. Emmanuel Macron has sought to


go, I haven't got time for all this nonsense where we just oppose each


other for the sake of it. What do we need to do to get things done? And


there is something incredibly appealing about that message. Surely


every politician says we need to get things done. It is more moving


beyond the kind of Labour- Tory, left-right thing. I have spent my


entire adult life listening to politicians who keep likening


themselves to being chief executives or business people, but somehow just


get into politics by accident. I don't think we want that in Britain.


But I was asked, what is Emmanuel Macron like? I agree with you. Being


in government is not like being a CEO. But the truth is, what he has


done successfully is pretend that there was no party connected to him.


We know he was with Hollande's party for the last few years so in a funny


way, it is a con. Trump did the same thing, pretend you're not part of a


party. Is that what people need to see, a politician who seems detached


from whatever they think is a traditional party? Steady on.


Firstly, given a choice as a French voter between a fascist, Marine Le


Pen, and Macron, you would go from Macron. If you think of it in the


context of our own left, even a telegenic 39-year-old man who talks


a good talk, if you picked him even against someone of the great sexual


magnetism of Simon Danczuk, you would go from Macron, right? The


problem is that he is offering a kind of reheated centrism which has


failed. And in the context of British politics, what we have now


is Theresa May, who keeps flirting with Ukip. And you have Jeremy


Corbyn. Is right that anyone standing against Marine Le Pen in


the second round would have won? Not necessarily. But what I want to say


is, could we have a Macron situation here? Could some bright young spark,


somebody who once considered standing for the leadership, go off


and become the Macron of the British Labour Party? The context here is


very different. If you look at the basic method, married together


economic competence and social justice and a desire to just get


things done, that was very much it. If people believe centrism is


something, that is what it is seen as. In some respects, there are lots


of things he wants to do that Labour people would feel unpottable with,


like investing in infrastructure and entrepreneurship -- things that


Labour people would feel comfortable with. But the other part of the


equation, where it is different is that he wants to cut 120,000 people


from the public sector in France. Their public sector is different to


ours and we wouldn't want to do that here. He also wants to further


liberalise their employment laws. We wouldn't want to do that here,


partly because it's a different context. The point is that if you


take Jeremy Corbyn, he is asking the right questions for our time. He is


looking at the unions and the grassroots and questions of fairness


and inequality. Jeremy? Yes. I agree. Then why is there a struggle


within Labour over the way he is asking these questions? If everyone


agrees that we are in a situation where there is too much distrust of


old-fashioned policies, is the centre pretty dead here for the


left? Totally. Come June the 8th, I dare Chuka to disagree with me on


this, Labour will take an absolute pounding. On June the 9th, what you


will see across newspaper commentary and within the Labour Party is that


this is all the fault of the guy in charge. We need someone a bit more


fluent and professional, and that will make things work. Actually, go


around the Labour heartlands, I have just come back from south Wales,


which Labour used are basically run. They assumed it was theirs. If you


look at it now, Wales is perhaps on the verge of voting Conservative for


the first time in almost 100 years. And if you look at why that is, all


the mechanisms that people used to rely upon as delivering voters to


the Labour Party, the unions, the social clubs, the industries, they


have all gone. I went to Bridgend, one of the key targets for Tories.


Even the Labour social club shut down years ago. So is Jeremy Corbyn


right to say, as he did today, that if he doesn't win the election in


June, he said, I was elected leader and I will stay as leader. He still


believes he is the one who speaks for the masses and he has the right


message. Well, let's see what the vote is -- what the result is. No


vote has been cast yet. We have to think about the future of the Labour


Party. We want to get the Labour Party into government. But I take


issue here. What is the centre? I don't upset about that. I want to


get the Labour Party back into government. Has touched on something


we don't have time to talk about on your programme. The biggest


challenge the Labour Party has faced is that the thing that connected it


to its communities, which was the trade union movements, mass


organised workplaces, that has gone. Aditya, does Labour stick with the


left? Centrist politics and economics have killed off Labour


heartlands. Why would we vote Labour? If you think you can take


South Wales for granted while you go off flirting... But national minimum


wage, Sure Start, record investment, that is left. Thank you both very


much. We have run out of time. We are going to leave Labour to one


side. We know it will say strong


and we know it will say stable, but next week we finally get to see


what else is inside The big question for Theresa May


perhaps is this one, On the back of last week's Local


election results the Conservatives could be forgiven for thinking


they had a mandate to In a moment, we'll ask


about immigration. First, Chris Cook looks


at the fundamentals underlying the polling to see what they tell us


about the campaign. Pollsters aren't the British


public's most trusted source But there are some things we can say


about this election campaign The first thing you need


to know about this general The Conservative Party called it,


and they did so because they expect If you look at recent polling


averages, the Tories are on around 43 percentage points,


against Labour's 27 That's a 16 percentage point gap,


way up from the 7-point lead the Tories had


at the 2015 general election. That big Tory lead is being driven


by two sorts of movements of voter. First of all, there's been


a transfer of Ukip voters So, Ukip won around 13% of the vote


at the last general election, And the main beneficiaries of that


fall are the Tories. You could spot that at last


week's local elections. Take Norfolk, where until last week,


there were 40 Tory councillors Second, there's also been


a significant shift in people who have moved across to the Tories


from other parties. Across the UK, that's


around 4% of people. But that flow is most


striking in Scotland, where the party's moved from 15%


at the last general election A flow that largely came from Labour


unionists moving to the Tory party. That Scottish Tory surge comes just


as the SNP support has And those two things together mean


there are around a dozen Scottish seats where the Tories have


to be taken seriously. There's a real complication


in reading Scotland, though, There are, for example, two seats


where, if the Liberal Democrats can convince Conservative


and Labour Unionists to lend them a quarter of their votes,


they'll take those seats That tactical voting bloc could be


an enormous force multiplier Another voter shift that some people


have been expecting is a movement towards the Liberal Democrats,


as the only UK-wide But so far, there's not been much


evidence of much movement. There was, however, a glimmer


of hope for them in last There was some evidence that


higher educated areas were turning out more strongly


for the Liberal Democrats That's good news for


them in some places. It's possible that the Lib Dems


might hold onto Richmond Park, which they recently took


in a by-election, and perhaps take But several of their seats are also


vulnerable to that Tory surge. Norman Lamb, who ran


for Lib Dem leader, They might lose Carshalton and


Wallington, and Southport as well. And that might be this


election in a nutshell, a high Conservative tide that


doesn't spare any Well, today, as Ukip vowed to reduce


net migration to zero, Theresa May returned


to the immigration policy She repeated the Conservative pledge


of 2015 which promised, and failed, to reduce net migration


to below 100,000. I think it is important


that we continue, and we will continue to say that we do


want to bring net migration down We believe that is


the tens of thousands. And of course, once we leave


the European Union, we do And of course, once we leave


the European Union, we will have the opportunity to ensure


that we have control of our borders here in the UK,


because we will be able to establish our rules


for people coming from That's a part of the picture


we haven't been able to control before, and we will be able


to control it. Leaving the EU means


that we won't have free movement Or a brazenly political need


to talk about achieving it Shortly before coming on air,


I spoke to former Tory leader and Welfare Secretary Iain Duncan


Smith. I asked him whether getting net


migration into the tens of thousands Clearly, I don't know


what's in the manifesto. But if the report is correct,


then I believe it will be. Because the principle of having


a target is that you work towards that over a period of time,


and make sure you try You're talking about working


towards something, hang on a sec, if this goes in the manifesto,


don't the public have the right If you don't have a target,


and you don't seek to achieve that target, then what happens is,


you lose control of migration. Until we leave the European Union,


we have an open door policy with the European Union,


and most of that migration, the vast majority of migration


from the European Union was low And therefore, controlling that


will allow us to get the right balance of high skills that we need,


but controlling very much the low skilled migration that was coming


into the country unchecked before. You say that that's the real


problem, but you know it 160,000 of that is


from outside the EU. So under this target,


this maintain target, you'd still have double the number


that you want. That's from outside the EU,


that's got nothing to do Of course, but then you assume


straight away that that means In other words, that somehow


when you control the European stuff, everything on the other side


remains the same. The point about a new migration


policy based on work permits with maybe caps involved,


means that you control all of the migration


in exactly the same way, That gives the Government


greater power to be able to control that target,


to get it within a set target I believe it is achievable,


it was achievable through the '90s and there's no reason why


we shouldn't get back to it. If you want to get that


down significantly, Will you cut the student


numbers and the money Will you cut high-value migrants,


NHS staff, the people that fill Now that when we leave


the European Union will be able to control the whole of migration,


which allows you to have a work permit system that says OK,


the low number, high-value areas such as scientists, academics,


people who are working in the software industry or even


in intercompany transfers in the City, these are the people


adding massive value to the economy. The problem was, we had a huge


number of low value, low skilled These people, for the most part,


were not adding value. If you look at the figures, it shows


they claimed more in benefits than they offered up


in terms of taxation. The key difference is to get control


of the numbers of the low value, and encourage UK business to stop


just looking abroad for the easy You're suggesting pretty much


then 170,000 scroungers? 170,000 people adding no


value to the economy? No, if you look at the figures,


and these figures are clear, they were published by the HMRC


a few months ago, they showed if you collate this together,


that the low skilled end of the migration, which made up


the majority of European migration, particularly from elements


of eastern Europe, what that amounted to was that they took


more in benefits than In the other area where people


had high-level skills, they paid above-average taxation


and therefore added value. Getting the balance right


about what the UK economy needs, while controlling


the numbers, is critical. This isn't ending migration,


but controlling it. You got the numbers down


when the economy was suffering Yes, but the whole point about this


is, the growth in the economy cannot We need to change the model,


which is what the Prime Minister wants to do with regards


to an industrial policy. We need to be able to get British


companies to invest more in skilling On far too many occasions,


I would come across companies who used to say we can't get anybody


to work here. Then you'd find they hadn't even


bothered to look for people They had gone straight abroad


because they thought it was cheaper. My point is, getting companies


to value and recognise the skills in the UK and the skills that


are needed, is going to be part of a controlled migration policy


that Theresa May is talking about. Could it be that it's not just free


movement of people that could end with Brexit,


but free movement of parts? The supply chains of the UK's


manufacturers, for example, snake all over the continent,


where components are routinely sent Now there are concerns that those


supply chains could be disrupted after we leave the EU,


costing time and of course money. Naga Munchetty has been talking


to people in the manufacturing industry about how they're


preparing for Brexit. And a warning for any viewers


with alysidophobia: this For more than 40 years,


the UK has been one of the key links in the EU's supply chain,


forging relationships Brexit could be about


to break the chain. Manufacturers are wondering how best


to maintain crucial trading links So far, they've enjoyed relatively


trouble-free trading access with minimal regulation,


paperwork and of course, As it seems more and more likely


that Brexit will take the EU out of the customs union and the single


market, a common fear is that trade will become more costly when the UK


becomes the missing link. Manufacturing accounts


for 45% of UK exports, Grainger Worrall was set


up in 1946 as a family business in Bridgnorth,


Shropshire. It makes engine blocks


and prototypes for the auto industry, from Formula 1


to well-known car-makers It's established a reliable supply


chain, which could be shaken It's really important for us


that we can move parts quickly Three brothers, the third generation


of the family now at the wheel. They employ more than 600 people,


with an annual turnover of more than ?50 million,


supplying up to 100 Looking at those partners, they're


questioning what's going to happen, what could be the challenges we'll


face going forward, Making one of the company's engine


blocks typically involves it going on a whirlwind trip around


Europe as it undergoes various It starts life being cast


at the facility in Bridgnorth and after five days,


makes its first journey to Italy, where the initial machining


of the block takes another five. From there, it's sent to Germany


to spend four days being coated. Then it's back to Italy for final


machining and assembly, Once more to Germany


for three days of honing, before returning to the UK for two


days for cleaning Then the finished engine block


is delivered to the vehicle manufacturer's plant in France,


a journey of around 30 working days How could Brexit affect the supply


chain for Grainger Worrall? The cost impact and the knock-on


effect, our customers really wouldn't be very pleased if we did


delay them an extra half week. Half a week is not a long time,


but it sounds as if time If we delay a week here or a few


days here, it will start to put They would be looking to see


whether they can get those services, or develop suppliers that can do


those services within the EU family, And for us to have something


that's not going to add value in that chain,


ie sitting at border control or waiting for bureaucratic


paperwork to be completed There's no time or space for a


stop-start system in manufacturing. But businesses may not be able


to avoid being dragged If you are importing a product


and then exporting it back to the country of origin as part


of an assembly, you will need a process for dealing


with all of that to make sure that Some companies will have


that, but lots won't. Anyone who doesn't do that


who thinks that they can muddle on with business as usual,


I think will be at a disadvantage. One such company which is assessing


how it may have to restructure its business post-Brexit is Magal


Engineering. It supplies engine parts


for car-makers across the world. It has two plants in the UK,


as well as ones in France, Turkey, India, China


and an office in Germany. This factory in Reading,


Berkshire, imports and exports In order to make this part


which controls the temperature of a car and its engine,


components are brought So we've got plastic granules


filled with glass fibre. We've got a sensor that


comes from Germany. We've got copper that


comes from France. Then we completely assemble


that here, and it goes Again, going with


the flow is essential. Founder Gamil says he has


capital to spare, ideally However, he may be forced to spend


it on swapping which factories produce which goods in order


to avoid any onerous tariffs. At the moment, we're


importing things from France. But with a lot of things that go


from here to France, we will make there or Germany,


we will have to make outside of the UK and they will go


to France, where we have This is obviously not


something that I want to do, because I want to invest in growth


and not invest in capital just because I need to move


something for tax purposes. There will be pressure to localise


more and to do less cross-border transactions and so on,


simply in order to maintain cost competitiveness and to keep


the supply chain intact. I think it's going to be a headache


for a large number of manufacturers. So why not use Brexit to dump


existing supply chains and set up A lot of what you might call


vocational skills that are required in mechanical engineering


and electrical engineering, we just haven't trained


enough of those people. Without skilled workers,


it will take much longer than the next two years to build


a self-sufficient Quite honestly, the skills gap


in the UK, I don't know whether it could deliver all the requirements


that we want. More time is wanted by the body


which represents manufacturers. It says two years isn't enough


to ensure a smooth exit and at least five years of transition is needed


before we break The cliff edge, in my view,


could bring a significant risk of a serious dip in our trade


and our output, and with it our GDP. The next two years need to be used


to maintain strong relationships with the EU while reaffirming


the UK's reputation for being This motorsport culture we have


is a can-do culture. You're presented with


a problem and in motorsport, here is the problem,


the answer is yes and then you Manufacturers recognise


that the shape of the supply chain will change, although with strong


links already forged, it's hoped that the system


will remain joined up We leave you with the acclaimed poet


Kate Tempest, who's guest director at this year's Brighton Festival,


which opened its doors on Saturday. Here she is with a work


entitled Tunnel Vision. You can't face the past,


the past's a dark place Can't sleep, can't wake,


sitting in our boxes Notching up our victories


as other people's losses Another day, another chance


to turn our face away from pain Let's get a takeaway, I'll meet


you in the pub a little later, When we gonna see that


life is happening? And that every single body bleeding


on its knees is an abomination And every natural being


is making communication And we're just sparks,


tiny parts of a bigger constellation We're minuscule molecules


that make up one body You see the tragedy and pain


of a person that you've never met Is present in your nightmares,


in your pull towards despair And the sickness of the culture,


and the sickness in our hearts Is a sickness that's inflicted


by this distance that we share Now, it was our bombs


that started this war And now it rages far away so we


dismiss all its victims as strangers But they're parents and children


made dogs by the danger Existence is futile,


so we don't engage But it was our boats that sailed,


killed, stole, and made frail It was our boots that stamped


It was our courts that jailed Looked back down at our nails


and our wedding plans In the face of a full-force


gale, we said: "Well, it's not up to us to make


this place a better land It's not up to us to make this


place a better land." Justice, justice,


recompense, humility Trust is, trust is something


we will never see The myth of the individual has left


us disconnected, lost, and pitiful I'm pleading with my loved ones


to wake up and love more.


The French election - what now for left and right?; the UK election and immigration; the cost of Brexit; and poet Kate Tempest live.

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