08/05/2017 Newsnight

Tough on Marine Le Pen, so can he now be tough

Here in France, they have a fresh start, but a lot of stale

Much hope rests on President Macron succeeding in reform where previous

It's the last bullet of the pro-globalisation forces.

If it succeeds, both anti-system voting will decrease,

the xenophobic one, Marine Le Pen, and the alter-globalisation

But if it doesn't succeed, then the question will only be

which anti-system voting will overthrow the system.

And I hear from this former Socialist candidate for president

And does that mean the centre now back in vogue?

What does Macron's success mean for political movements outside France?

In particular, what are the lessons for the British Labour Party?

And we're joined by the poet, Kate Tempest.

Carcinogenic, epileptic, post-traumatic, bipolar and

disaffected. Atomised, thinking we're engaged, staring at the screen

so we don't have to see the planet diet.

Hello, welcome back to Paris, at the end of the long 2017 French

And at the start of a new phase in modern French political history.

Emmanuel Macron is obviously a big deal for this country,

a fresh face, a reformer, he's leading a new party

But he is also now an important player in the world.

His bigger than expected win is a tonic for depressed liberal

The opposite of Trump, he's a man who didn't shy away

from his pro-European views, his desire to keep the border open,

his belief in trade, his adherence to a tolerant, open society.

Unlike some others, he beat the far right by taking on its arguments,

For the Front National, a very disappointing night indeed,

the task of detoxifying the brand, barely half complete.

This video of Marine Le Pen dancing away her disappointment last night,

was perhaps the first step towards trying to soften the image.

As for Macron, his party is his creation, a political

start-up that has reached a sky-high valuation in no time.

But he has yet to actually deliver a working product.

The election night rally, where supporters dare to dream

and their expectations are elevated, even if they're all a bit

But does Macron have a real plan to change France?

We don't know about the future or the exact plans, but I know

that this is the first election where I'm voting for a candidate

It's really good news for France and Europe.

Oh, my God, don't ask me that kind of question.

The morning after, 25 miles away from those celebrations,

this is where the work needs to get going, one of those bits

of Paris that knows what deindustrialisation is.

This park overlooks an old Peugeot factory.

What everybody says that Macron's problem is the parliament,

the National Assembly, that he has to get a majority

And that is undoubtedly true, but that's just the half of it,

because the real problem is to come up with ideas, with policies that

are actually going to work, that are going to deliver economic

life to parts of the country that have had it difficult

in the last few decades, and to do so on a timescale that

matches people's current impatience for change.

This is Aulnay-sous-Bois, where the left-wing populist

Jean-Luc Melenchon has a high level of support.

This couple seem to encapsulate the division France faces.

TRANSLATION: We don't share the same views of Macron.

It will be very tough for the poorest people.

There will be new decrees in the summer that will hurt them.

TRANSLATION: But he's aware of new technology, of the changes

He knows about young people, social networks and what all that

I think his problems will start very soon.

I know people who voted for Melenchon who will be

He voted Front National, mainly because they're

tough on crime and drugs, but also on economic grounds.

Do you think Macron can deliver change?

To change the situation, he needs 20 or 30 years.

Today, Macron met Francois Hollande at VE Day commemorations.

Hollande was one who tried to change the country,

but stalled in the face of the famous French resistance.

The guy is so determined, and our institutions

give him the opportunity to implement his agenda whatever it

takes, but it means we have a really high risk of political turmoil

You can't overestimate how important this is for the future of the EU

It's the last bullet of the pro-globalisation forces.

If it succeeds, both anti-system votes will decrease,

the xenophobic one, Marine Le Pen, and the alter-globalisation

But if it doesn't succeed, then the question will only be

which anti-system voting will overthrow the system.

The French have often had a tendency to deride

Anglo-Saxon economics, but here they are, they've

elected someone who's cut of rather Anglo-Saxon cloth.

Some would say that's just as Britain is moving

in the opposite direction, but it means that Macron talks

about labour market flexibility, reforming the European Union.

He talks about technology and start-ups, business

and enterprise, all the stuff that we've heard about.

If defeating populism is your game, that particular

combination of measures, well, it hasn't been

altogether successful in the Anglo-Saxon countries.

At least Monsieur Macron understands the task at hand,

with words for those who voted for his rival.

TRANSLATION: Don't whistle, don't heckle.

They express anger, confusion, and sometimes conviction.

But I will do all I can during the next five years to ensure

there will no longer be a need to vote for extremes.

At times, he looked nervous last night, and well he might be.

His crowd may party, but winning a battle

against Marine Le Pen is not the same as winning the war.

His task is immense, to solve the problems that draw

It's interesting to ask statistically, what proportion

of great new hopes end in disappointment.

And will Mr Macron nudge those stats one way or the other?

Whatever the outcome, for now, the French have

leapfrogged everybody else in reconfiguring their politics.

Humiliating old parties, welcoming the new.

For the left this has been a humiliating election;

so earlier today I sat down with Segolene Royal,

who was the socialist candidate for President ten years ago.

She's currently a government minister, one of the biggest figures

in French politics on the left. I asked if she was happy about the

victory of Macron. TRANSLATION: Yes, I'm very happy

firstly because he's a very young president and a sign of especially

for the young generation, and secondly because he's widened

the gap with the far right. Did you vote for him

in the first round? You voted for him

in the second round. And you didn't vote

for your Socialist No, but I didn't harm

the Socialist candidate. Some people publicly endorsed

Emmanuel Macron for the first round, but I didn't

want to because it's not for me to denigrate

the Socialist candidate. That's why I waited until the second

round to say anything. I must ask you about the left

in politics in France, in much of the world,

because we are in a state We have Melenchon,

anti-Europe left, he was more disposed to

Europe and his left. Can the left carry on functioning

with all these different views towards globalisation

and all this confusion? Yes, there is confusion

because the traditional parties are breaking apart and thing

on the right. You've got the far right,

the nationalist right, the pro-Liberal right

and the centre-right And the same thing is happening

on the left and the right, So do you think France

is in the middle now of a major The French people voted

for the centre, but the extreme parties have become more radicalised

with a very powerful So we need to be very careful

about how the country is governed, because people need to feel included

in a new economic, social and environmental model so we have

consensus around projects and ideas. You've got elections

coming up in June. What is going to happen

in those elections? Are the parties going to work

together after the election to support the new president

if he doesn't have a majority We will see next week,

when the candidates are known. Of course Emmanuel Macron wants

a majority in parliament, but other politicians

are considering the option of the Socialist Party

and En Marche!, and the Republicans We don't know whether the president

will have a majority, so we will just have to see how it

all works out. Do you think he can really make

the French fall in love The French have never

loved this, have they? Can he persuade the French

that this is for them? The British have taken

it for decades, but do you think the French

can become like that, Take the Paris climate

change conference. People finally understood

the globalised nature The French people realise that

globalisation can offer economic advantages and innovation,

but as in the United Kingdom, there are plenty of people suffering

from the effects of globalisation through immigration and low wages

because of competition, and there are silent pockets of such

people in the United Kingdom as well who are living in poverty due

to poorly implemented globalisation. So it's not so much a question

of being for or against it, but what type of globalisation

is good for a country. Look at the UK local

elections last week, and you see evidence that

Theresa May saw off Ukip in her way, by talking enough of their language

to appeal to Ukip voters. Mr Corbyn has responded

to populism too, taking on some Macron has gone about it very

differently to either Not for the first time,

whatever happens in the UK election, Britain and France will be

following different paths. Some have called Emmanuel Macron

the Accidental President, the man who emerged from the morass

of unelectable candidates from the traditional right

and the socialist left. The staunch globalist,

staunch Europhile, must address the concerns of all those who wanted

the very opposite from So how will he chose

to redefine the centre left? Joining me now Chuka Umunna,

who knows Emmaneual Macron personally, and Aditya Chakrobortty,

who writes on Jeremy Corbyn Chuka, you talked to him when he

first said he was going to run. I just want to get inside that

conversation. Did it sound like he had a chance? Well, I don't want to

betray confidences, but they have obviously got a different

constitution there. So if you are going to start something fresh like

En Marche!, it is possible under the French constitution, a presidential

system. If you were to try to do something like that here, aside from

whether that is desirable, I am not sure our constitution allows for it.

But he also tapped into something which is felt as much in France as

it is here. If you go to Prime Minister's Questions in France, it

is not so different to ours, very adversarial, very tribal. And I

think that switch is a lot of people off. Emmanuel Macron has sought to

go, I haven't got time for all this nonsense where we just oppose each

other for the sake of it. What do we need to do to get things done? And

there is something incredibly appealing about that message. Surely

every politician says we need to get things done. It is more moving

beyond the kind of Labour- Tory, left-right thing. I have spent my

entire adult life listening to politicians who keep likening

themselves to being chief executives or business people, but somehow just

get into politics by accident. I don't think we want that in Britain.

But I was asked, what is Emmanuel Macron like? I agree with you. Being

in government is not like being a CEO. But the truth is, what he has

done successfully is pretend that there was no party connected to him.

We know he was with Hollande's party for the last few years so in a funny

way, it is a con. Trump did the same thing, pretend you're not part of a

party. Is that what people need to see, a politician who seems detached

from whatever they think is a traditional party? Steady on.

Firstly, given a choice as a French voter between a fascist, Marine Le

Pen, and Macron, you would go from Macron. If you think of it in the

context of our own left, even a telegenic 39-year-old man who talks

a good talk, if you picked him even against someone of the great sexual

magnetism of Simon Danczuk, you would go from Macron, right? The

problem is that he is offering a kind of reheated centrism which has

failed. And in the context of British politics, what we have now

is Theresa May, who keeps flirting with Ukip. And you have Jeremy

Corbyn. Is right that anyone standing against Marine Le Pen in

the second round would have won? Not necessarily. But what I want to say

is, could we have a Macron situation here? Could some bright young spark,

somebody who once considered standing for the leadership, go off

and become the Macron of the British Labour Party? The context here is

very different. If you look at the basic method, married together

economic competence and social justice and a desire to just get

things done, that was very much it. If people believe centrism is

something, that is what it is seen as. In some respects, there are lots

of things he wants to do that Labour people would feel unpottable with,

like investing in infrastructure and entrepreneurship -- things that

Labour people would feel comfortable with. But the other part of the

equation, where it is different is that he wants to cut 120,000 people

from the public sector in France. Their public sector is different to

ours and we wouldn't want to do that here. He also wants to further

liberalise their employment laws. We wouldn't want to do that here,

partly because it's a different context. The point is that if you

take Jeremy Corbyn, he is asking the right questions for our time. He is

looking at the unions and the grassroots and questions of fairness

and inequality. Jeremy? Yes. I agree. Then why is there a struggle

within Labour over the way he is asking these questions? If everyone

agrees that we are in a situation where there is too much distrust of

old-fashioned policies, is the centre pretty dead here for the

left? Totally. Come June the 8th, I dare Chuka to disagree with me on

this, Labour will take an absolute pounding. On June the 9th, what you

will see across newspaper commentary and within the Labour Party is that

this is all the fault of the guy in charge. We need someone a bit more

fluent and professional, and that will make things work. Actually, go

around the Labour heartlands, I have just come back from south Wales,

which Labour used are basically run. They assumed it was theirs. If you

look at it now, Wales is perhaps on the verge of voting Conservative for

the first time in almost 100 years. And if you look at why that is, all

the mechanisms that people used to rely upon as delivering voters to

the Labour Party, the unions, the social clubs, the industries, they

have all gone. I went to Bridgend, one of the key targets for Tories.

Even the Labour social club shut down years ago. So is Jeremy Corbyn

right to say, as he did today, that if he doesn't win the election in

June, he said, I was elected leader and I will stay as leader. He still

believes he is the one who speaks for the masses and he has the right

message. Well, let's see what the vote is -- what the result is. No

vote has been cast yet. We have to think about the future of the Labour

Party. We want to get the Labour Party into government. But I take

issue here. What is the centre? I don't upset about that. I want to

get the Labour Party back into government. Has touched on something

we don't have time to talk about on your programme. The biggest

challenge the Labour Party has faced is that the thing that connected it

to its communities, which was the trade union movements, mass

organised workplaces, that has gone. Aditya, does Labour stick with the

left? Centrist politics and economics have killed off Labour

heartlands. Why would we vote Labour? If you think you can take

South Wales for granted while you go off flirting... But national minimum

wage, Sure Start, record investment, that is left. Thank you both very

much. We have run out of time. We are going to leave Labour to one

side. We know it will say strong

and we know it will say stable, but next week we finally get to see

what else is inside The big question for Theresa May

perhaps is this one, On the back of last week's Local

election results the Conservatives could be forgiven for thinking

they had a mandate to In a moment, we'll ask

about immigration. First, Chris Cook looks

at the fundamentals underlying the polling to see what they tell us

about the campaign. Pollsters aren't the British

public's most trusted source But there are some things we can say

about this election campaign The first thing you need

to know about this general The Conservative Party called it,

and they did so because they expect If you look at recent polling

averages, the Tories are on around 43 percentage points,

against Labour's 27 That's a 16 percentage point gap,

way up from the 7-point lead the Tories had

at the 2015 general election. That big Tory lead is being driven

by two sorts of movements of voter. First of all, there's been

a transfer of Ukip voters So, Ukip won around 13% of the vote

at the last general election, And the main beneficiaries of that

fall are the Tories. You could spot that at last

week's local elections. Take Norfolk, where until last week,

there were 40 Tory councillors Second, there's also been

a significant shift in people who have moved across to the Tories

from other parties. Across the UK, that's

around 4% of people. But that flow is most

striking in Scotland, where the party's moved from 15%

at the last general election A flow that largely came from Labour

unionists moving to the Tory party. That Scottish Tory surge comes just

as the SNP support has And those two things together mean

there are around a dozen Scottish seats where the Tories have

to be taken seriously. There's a real complication

in reading Scotland, though, There are, for example, two seats

where, if the Liberal Democrats can convince Conservative

and Labour Unionists to lend them a quarter of their votes,

they'll take those seats That tactical voting bloc could be

an enormous force multiplier Another voter shift that some people

have been expecting is a movement towards the Liberal Democrats,

as the only UK-wide But so far, there's not been much

evidence of much movement. There was, however, a glimmer

of hope for them in last There was some evidence that

higher educated areas were turning out more strongly

for the Liberal Democrats That's good news for

them in some places. It's possible that the Lib Dems

might hold onto Richmond Park, which they recently took

in a by-election, and perhaps take But several of their seats are also

vulnerable to that Tory surge. Norman Lamb, who ran

for Lib Dem leader, They might lose Carshalton and

Wallington, and Southport as well. And that might be this

election in a nutshell, a high Conservative tide that

doesn't spare any Well, today, as Ukip vowed to reduce

net migration to zero, Theresa May returned

to the immigration policy She repeated the Conservative pledge

of 2015 which promised, and failed, to reduce net migration

to below 100,000. I think it is important

that we continue, and we will continue to say that we do

want to bring net migration down We believe that is

the tens of thousands. And of course, once we leave

the European Union, we do And of course, once we leave

the European Union, we will have the opportunity to ensure

that we have control of our borders here in the UK,

because we will be able to establish our rules

for people coming from That's a part of the picture

we haven't been able to control before, and we will be able

to control it. Leaving the EU means

that we won't have free movement Or a brazenly political need

to talk about achieving it Shortly before coming on air,

I spoke to former Tory leader and Welfare Secretary Iain Duncan

Smith. I asked him whether getting net

migration into the tens of thousands Clearly, I don't know

what's in the manifesto. But if the report is correct,

then I believe it will be. Because the principle of having

a target is that you work towards that over a period of time,

and make sure you try You're talking about working

towards something, hang on a sec, if this goes in the manifesto,

don't the public have the right If you don't have a target,

and you don't seek to achieve that target, then what happens is,

you lose control of migration. Until we leave the European Union,

we have an open door policy with the European Union,

and most of that migration, the vast majority of migration

from the European Union was low And therefore, controlling that

will allow us to get the right balance of high skills that we need,

but controlling very much the low skilled migration that was coming

into the country unchecked before. You say that that's the real

problem, but you know it 160,000 of that is

from outside the EU. So under this target,

this maintain target, you'd still have double the number

that you want. That's from outside the EU,

that's got nothing to do Of course, but then you assume

straight away that that means In other words, that somehow

when you control the European stuff, everything on the other side

remains the same. The point about a new migration

policy based on work permits with maybe caps involved,

means that you control all of the migration

in exactly the same way, That gives the Government

greater power to be able to control that target,

to get it within a set target I believe it is achievable,

it was achievable through the '90s and there's no reason why

we shouldn't get back to it. If you want to get that

down significantly, Will you cut the student

numbers and the money Will you cut high-value migrants,

NHS staff, the people that fill Now that when we leave

the European Union will be able to control the whole of migration,

which allows you to have a work permit system that says OK,

the low number, high-value areas such as scientists, academics,

people who are working in the software industry or even

in intercompany transfers in the City, these are the people

adding massive value to the economy. The problem was, we had a huge

number of low value, low skilled These people, for the most part,

were not adding value. If you look at the figures, it shows

they claimed more in benefits than they offered up

in terms of taxation. The key difference is to get control

of the numbers of the low value, and encourage UK business to stop

just looking abroad for the easy You're suggesting pretty much

then 170,000 scroungers? 170,000 people adding no

value to the economy? No, if you look at the figures,

and these figures are clear, they were published by the HMRC

a few months ago, they showed if you collate this together,

that the low skilled end of the migration, which made up

the majority of European migration, particularly from elements

of eastern Europe, what that amounted to was that they took

more in benefits than In the other area where people

had high-level skills, they paid above-average taxation

and therefore added value. Getting the balance right

about what the UK economy needs, while controlling

the numbers, is critical. This isn't ending migration,

but controlling it. You got the numbers down

when the economy was suffering Yes, but the whole point about this

is, the growth in the economy cannot We need to change the model,

which is what the Prime Minister wants to do with regards

to an industrial policy. We need to be able to get British

companies to invest more in skilling On far too many occasions,

I would come across companies who used to say we can't get anybody

to work here. Then you'd find they hadn't even

bothered to look for people They had gone straight abroad

because they thought it was cheaper. My point is, getting companies

to value and recognise the skills in the UK and the skills that

are needed, is going to be part of a controlled migration policy

that Theresa May is talking about. Could it be that it's not just free

movement of people that could end with Brexit,

but free movement of parts? The supply chains of the UK's

manufacturers, for example, snake all over the continent,

where components are routinely sent Now there are concerns that those

supply chains could be disrupted after we leave the EU,

costing time and of course money. Naga Munchetty has been talking

to people in the manufacturing industry about how they're

preparing for Brexit. And a warning for any viewers

with alysidophobia: this For more than 40 years,

the UK has been one of the key links in the EU's supply chain,

forging relationships Brexit could be about

to break the chain. Manufacturers are wondering how best

to maintain crucial trading links So far, they've enjoyed relatively

trouble-free trading access with minimal regulation,

paperwork and of course, As it seems more and more likely

that Brexit will take the EU out of the customs union and the single

market, a common fear is that trade will become more costly when the UK

becomes the missing link. Manufacturing accounts

for 45% of UK exports, Grainger Worrall was set

up in 1946 as a family business in Bridgnorth,

Shropshire. It makes engine blocks

and prototypes for the auto industry, from Formula 1

to well-known car-makers It's established a reliable supply

chain, which could be shaken It's really important for us

that we can move parts quickly Three brothers, the third generation

of the family now at the wheel. They employ more than 600 people,

with an annual turnover of more than ?50 million,

supplying up to 100 Looking at those partners, they're

questioning what's going to happen, what could be the challenges we'll

face going forward, Making one of the company's engine

blocks typically involves it going on a whirlwind trip around

Europe as it undergoes various It starts life being cast

at the facility in Bridgnorth and after five days,

makes its first journey to Italy, where the initial machining

of the block takes another five. From there, it's sent to Germany

to spend four days being coated. Then it's back to Italy for final

machining and assembly, Once more to Germany

for three days of honing, before returning to the UK for two

days for cleaning Then the finished engine block

is delivered to the vehicle manufacturer's plant in France,

a journey of around 30 working days How could Brexit affect the supply

chain for Grainger Worrall? The cost impact and the knock-on

effect, our customers really wouldn't be very pleased if we did

delay them an extra half week. Half a week is not a long time,

but it sounds as if time If we delay a week here or a few

days here, it will start to put They would be looking to see

whether they can get those services, or develop suppliers that can do

those services within the EU family, And for us to have something

that's not going to add value in that chain,

ie sitting at border control or waiting for bureaucratic

paperwork to be completed There's no time or space for a

stop-start system in manufacturing. But businesses may not be able

to avoid being dragged If you are importing a product

and then exporting it back to the country of origin as part

of an assembly, you will need a process for dealing

with all of that to make sure that Some companies will have

that, but lots won't. Anyone who doesn't do that

who thinks that they can muddle on with business as usual,

I think will be at a disadvantage. One such company which is assessing

how it may have to restructure its business post-Brexit is Magal

Engineering. It supplies engine parts

for car-makers across the world. It has two plants in the UK,

as well as ones in France, Turkey, India, China

and an office in Germany. This factory in Reading,

Berkshire, imports and exports In order to make this part

which controls the temperature of a car and its engine,

components are brought So we've got plastic granules

filled with glass fibre. We've got a sensor that

comes from Germany. We've got copper that

comes from France. Then we completely assemble

that here, and it goes Again, going with

the flow is essential. Founder Gamil says he has

capital to spare, ideally However, he may be forced to spend

it on swapping which factories produce which goods in order

to avoid any onerous tariffs. At the moment, we're

importing things from France. But with a lot of things that go

from here to France, we will make there or Germany,

we will have to make outside of the UK and they will go

to France, where we have This is obviously not

something that I want to do, because I want to invest in growth

and not invest in capital just because I need to move

something for tax purposes. There will be pressure to localise

more and to do less cross-border transactions and so on,

simply in order to maintain cost competitiveness and to keep

the supply chain intact. I think it's going to be a headache

for a large number of manufacturers. So why not use Brexit to dump

existing supply chains and set up A lot of what you might call

vocational skills that are required in mechanical engineering

and electrical engineering, we just haven't trained

enough of those people. Without skilled workers,

it will take much longer than the next two years to build

a self-sufficient Quite honestly, the skills gap

in the UK, I don't know whether it could deliver all the requirements

that we want. More time is wanted by the body

which represents manufacturers. It says two years isn't enough

to ensure a smooth exit and at least five years of transition is needed

before we break The cliff edge, in my view,

could bring a significant risk of a serious dip in our trade

and our output, and with it our GDP. The next two years need to be used

to maintain strong relationships with the EU while reaffirming

the UK's reputation for being This motorsport culture we have

is a can-do culture. You're presented with

a problem and in motorsport, here is the problem,

the answer is yes and then you Manufacturers recognise

that the shape of the supply chain will change, although with strong

links already forged, it's hoped that the system

will remain joined up We leave you with the acclaimed poet

Kate Tempest, who's guest director at this year's Brighton Festival,

which opened its doors on Saturday. Here she is with a work

entitled Tunnel Vision. You can't face the past,

the past's a dark place Can't sleep, can't wake,

sitting in our boxes Notching up our victories

as other people's losses Another day, another chance

to turn our face away from pain Let's get a takeaway, I'll meet

you in the pub a little later, When we gonna see that

life is happening? And that every single body bleeding

on its knees is an abomination And every natural being

is making communication And we're just sparks,

tiny parts of a bigger constellation We're minuscule molecules

that make up one body You see the tragedy and pain

of a person that you've never met Is present in your nightmares,

in your pull towards despair And the sickness of the culture,

and the sickness in our hearts Is a sickness that's inflicted

by this distance that we share Now, it was our bombs

that started this war And now it rages far away so we

dismiss all its victims as strangers But they're parents and children

made dogs by the danger Existence is futile,

so we don't engage But it was our boats that sailed,

killed, stole, and made frail It was our boots that stamped

It was our courts that jailed Looked back down at our nails

and our wedding plans In the face of a full-force

gale, we said: "Well, it's not up to us to make

this place a better land It's not up to us to make this

place a better land." Justice, justice,

recompense, humility Trust is, trust is something

we will never see The myth of the individual has left

us disconnected, lost, and pitiful I'm pleading with my loved ones

to wake up and love more.