05/05/2017 Newsnight


05/05/2017

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines.


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Transcript


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For us it's been tough, you know, let's admit it.

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It's been disappointing, but there's been mixed results.

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Obviously, we need to gain support and, I tell you,

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compared to two years ago, we're doing our best, doing well.

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I'm disappointed we've lost seats because our candidates

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and our councillors have worked so hard.

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We came within 5,000 votes of winning the west of England,

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Yeah, it's been a tough night, but it's mixed results and it's

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all to play for in terms of the general election.

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As far as the general election is concerned,

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We will see what happens when the whistle is blown for full-time.

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It's not unusual to try and put a brave face on bad news.

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But some days, it's harder than others.

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With just over a month to go before a general election,

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Britain's main opposition party, Labour, is moving backwards.

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They've lost seats and mayoralty contests,

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They lost to the SNP in Glasgow, they lost to the Tories

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in the North of England, they lost to nameless

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independents in South Wales - all former heartlands.

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For a party whose proud activists calls themselves 'Momentum',

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Here - in other words - is a party slipping further away

:01:16.:01:18.

Some solace for Labour, Ukip had a worse time

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The party that clambered aboard a wrecking ball and drove it

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through the British political system, emerged with just

:01:30.:01:31.

one councillor today - a lone soul in Burnley.

:01:32.:01:33.

Sober faces masking an extraordinary set of results.

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Tonight, we analyse the new political landscape

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and ask what it could spell for the election in June.

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Our political editor, Nick Watt, is in Birmingham.

:01:47.:01:48.

Let us start with the Tories. Theresa May really doing what she

:01:49.:01:53.

set out to do, Nick? Yes, that's right. Here I am in Birmingham where

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the Conservative Party have ventured into Labour heartlands by capturing

:02:00.:02:05.

that West Midlands mayoralty. If you take that result and combine it with

:02:06.:02:09.

the results across Great Britain the Conservative Party is healing for a

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decisive victory in next mornt's general election. They are moving

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back into parts of Great Britain where they really haven't had much

:02:18.:02:23.

of an impact for the last 25 years. And, the Conservatives have an 11

:02:24.:02:27.

point lead in the projected national share. That is higher than Margaret

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Thatcher had this time in 1983 and 1987 and that was fold in both those

:02:34.:02:39.

cases by landslide general election victories. Conservative ministers

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they are saying - there is no complacency you can always make a

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mistake in the next five weeks. I spoke to a Cabinet Minister this

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afternoon who said to me - interestingly, Theresa May's gamble

:02:53.:02:55.

on that early election was the right one. Your thoughts on Labour

:02:56.:02:59.

tonight, Nick? The Labour Party are saying that they are still in the

:03:00.:03:04.

game. They are saying that 11 point Tory lead is narrower than the

:03:05.:03:09.

opinion poll lead. They are saying - look, they won the Manchester,

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George Michael mayoralt and Liverpool decriesively. Senior

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Labour figures in private are in despair. They think the party is

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heading to a heavy defeat next month. Jeremy Corbyn headed to

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Manchester this afternoon to celebrate Andy Burnham victory, but

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the new Mayor, well, he was otherwise engaged. On this historic

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day we decided to take a look at the five lessons we've learnt from

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today. The people of Britain have spoken.

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The political ground has shifted and Britain is on course for a

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realignment in next month's general election. But just what have we

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learnt from the multitude of elections across Great Britain?

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Crowing by ministers has been banned by Number Ten. They have little

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doubt that Theresa May's decision to call an early general election will

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pay off. Strange to think that just a few weeks ago some ministers were

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wondering whether her gamble was really that wise. Now, ministers are

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drawing parallels with Margaret Thatcher's landslide victories in

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1983 and 1987. She triggered those contests a few days after success in

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the local elections. Theresa May had no such luxury. She had to go

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earlier because ministers felt there was a short window before the Brexit

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negotiations are properly under way. Theresa May's two core messages at

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the launch of her campaign for the Tory leadership, here in Birmingham

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last July, are paying dividends. Her pledge that, yes, Brexit would mean

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Brexit has won over Ukip voters. And her insistence that the referendum

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result was a cry from people who feel left behind by globalisation

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has won over blue collar voters from Ukip and Labour.

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In the home of the pay rant saint of Mayism the Tories achieved their

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best win of these elections. Street, Andy, the Conservative Party

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candidate is duly elected as Mayor for the West Midlands. His success

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in the West Midlands Mayoral contest shows that the Conservatives are on

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the march in Labour heartlands. The giants of the Labour movement would

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be stunned as bastians fell. Glasgow and the land of Michael Foot. They

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won Greater Manchester and Liverpool, giving the party some

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hope that urban areas may save it from meltdown on the 8th June.

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Ukip changed the country by laying the ground for the Brexit vote. But

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in their success, they may very well have put themselves out of business.

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On the other side there was little sign of a bounce from aggrieved K

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Remain supporters, for Britain's two most ro-European parties, the

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Liberal Democrats and the SNP, who both earn'ts experienced mixed

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results. Is You end with Nicola Sturgeon. Talk us through the SNP's

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fortunes today? Do you agree we've reached Peak Nat in the words of

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Ruth Davidson? We possible have. You heard in my report that Labour has

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lost control of Glasgow. What is interesting. They might be talking

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about it in a few decades time today, is the return of the

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Conservative Party. 20 years ago they were wiped out in Scotland,

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today they are back and back in unexpected places. There is a

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Conservative councillor now in the Paisley, one of the most deprived

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areas of Scotland. Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish

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Conservatives she says that her party is now unquestionably the main

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party of the Union in Scotland. She is hoping that in next month's

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general election she will pick up tactical votes from people across

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the spectrum who do not want to have a second independence referendum.

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Nick, thanks very much indeed. Nick Watt there in Birmingham.

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West Midlands, Tees Valley, Derbyshire, Lancashire,

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These were the places they used to weigh the labour vote,

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so certain were they of their heartland support.

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Today, they saw them slip out of their grip.

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This map, from the Guardian, shows the Labour gains.

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And this one shows the Tory gains - they are everywhere.

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So where does Labour think they'll win the general election?

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Campaign manager, Andrew Gwynne, joins me now from Salford.

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Nice of you to join us, Andrew Gwynne. Based on what you have seen

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today, do you still believe you can win the general election? Well, of

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course we fight elections to win because we are in this game to

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change Britain for the better. So, before a single vote has been cast

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for the general election, of course we are fighting for every single

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Labour vote in every part of the United Kingdom that we will be

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contesting. Do you believe you can win it on this result? Of course,

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you have to believe in politics that you can win. I do believe that we

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can win if we get our message across, our policies across. If

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Labour candidates, if Labour Party members hit the ground. Dust

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ourselves down, we have taken a bruising today in parts of the

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country. I play tribute to Labour candidates and councillors who have

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stood for the party and sadly not been elected. You are the head of

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campaigns now. You recognise, presumably, you are going to have a

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pretty radical shift, in terms ofs how you get that message out now,

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what's going to happen? We have five weeks to change the course of the

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next five years. That's a massive challenge. It's one I'm up to and

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it's one that I know many of my colleagues are up to. What we've got

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to do, going forward, is we have to, obviously, launch our manifesto and

:10:11.:10:14.

get our policies there. We have a transformational vision for the

:10:15.:10:17.

Britain which is different to the society we live in now. A fairer,

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more equal and just society. I'm confident that if we can get that

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message out - Those policies are out, aren't they? We have heard a

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lot of you campaigning on the issues, police numbers, talked

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schools, talked NHS and the crisis. These are presumably what you want

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to be talking about that message still hasn't got through to voters

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today? That's just the start. I urge you to wait until the 16th May when

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we will launch our manifesto. You will see that there are some pretty

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radical and forward thinking policies in there. I don't doubt

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that we have got a challenge on our hands. It's our duty to make sure

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that we Ied fight for every single Labour vote. That we fight to make

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sure that as many Labour MPs are returned to parliament on the 8th

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June. The trouble is, for Labour, you haven't got - Fight to win. You

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haven't got certain members of your party, many members of your party,

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behind you, as us know. The MP for Red car wrote this morning, "we've a

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lot to learn. The Tories have decimated Teesside, but people still

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didn't want to trust us." Sion Simon lost the West Midlands "traditional

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working-class votes want a simpler, stronger message they want

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patriotism, hard work, law and order." Do you concede that simple

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message - whatever the message is from Labour - isn't getting through?

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I absolutely know that candidates like Ana Turlly will be fighting for

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a Labour victory in red car. I support Anna in that. We need her to

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be returned to parliament. We need many more Labour MPs back in

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parliament. Absolutely we have to get - We know what you need. What

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I'm not hearing from you is the sense of how that could happen now?

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This is presumably a wake-up call. You have got a month to go. We know

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that you want to return MPs to parliament, we don't know how you're

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going to do it. We don't know what is going to be radical enough for

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you to get a message across, through Jeremy Corbyn, through John

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McDonnell, which hasn't worked so far? Firstly, be patient. Let's see

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what's in that manifesto. Secondly, of course we have lessons to learn.

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We've also got lessons to learn from the areas where we did well in the

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local elections. Places like Greater Manchester where the Tories were

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defeated in their own areas. For example - Where your candidate

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didn't wait around to see his leader turn-up? The Conservative candidate

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in greater man chest, the Greater Manchester. We have lessons to

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learn, both bad and good from these elections. I'm not complacent. I'm

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looking very carefully at how we build on those issues and we get our

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message across. You have to be more than not complacent, don't you? Step

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back from this for a second. You are trying to replace a Government that

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has imposed seven years of austerity. It's failed to meet

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immigration targets. It's failed to reach its deficit targets. It failed

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to solve a crisis in the NHS. You are moving backwards. You are losing

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your Labour heartlands. You can't begin to make gains in a situation

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like that. What's gone wrong? We are making gains in parts of the

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country. We increased our majority in Swansea we had a landslide in

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Greater Manchester and Merseyside. By a candidate who doesn't believe

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in Jeremy Corbyn? Including city regions who do not traditionally

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vote for the Labour Party. There are lessons to learn both from the poor

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results in parts of the country, but also from some of the good results

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in part of the country. Now, we've got a job to do in the next five

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weeks and I'm fully focused on the other hand making sure that we get

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that Labour message across - that we want to build a Britain for the

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many, not the few, and I'm confident that my colleagues, in the Labour

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Party, will be doing their bit to make sure that we return as many

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Labour MPs and, hopefully, on the 8th June, a Labour Government.

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Andrew Gwynne, thank you. Thank you. Whilst the results have been

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coming in across the UK, the two candidates vying to be

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the President of France have been pitching for votes

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on their last day of campaigning. Despite the best efforts

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of the far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, Centrist Emmanuel

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Macron has a substantial lead in opinion polls

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ahead of Sunday's poll. Gabriel Gatehouse is in

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Paris for us tonight. Take us through what you are seeing

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and feeling there? Turnout will be key on Sunday. Emmanuel Macron's

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vote is broad, but soft. That is to say that in a recent poll, 60% of

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people who said they were planning to vote for him said they were

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planning to do so because they didn't like the other option on

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offer. Marine Le Pen's vote is narrower, but firmer. Her supporters

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are energised. A low turnout could work in her favour. Who trusts the

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polls these days I hear you ask after Brexit, after Trump? We had a

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dry run here in France. In the first round the opinion polls turned out

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to be pretty accurate. We are not in the predicting

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business, but the fact remains that one candidate is 20 points ahead in

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the opinion polls of the other. We have been taking a deep look at

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Emmanuel Macron and asking what his candidacy might tell us about

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politics today. The Whirlpool factory makes washing machinings,

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not for much longer. The work remembers fighting to save their

:16:14.:16:18.

jobs. They know it's a lost cost. Next year production will move to

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Poland where labour is cheaper and labour laws more liberal. The battle

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for this factory really encapsulates what this whole campaign is about.

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It's a straight fight between the globalalists and the nationalists.

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Emmanuel Macron is is on the side of globalisation.

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This is Emanuel's hometown. He could not promise to save their jobs. It

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did not go down well. Unemployment in France remain stubbornly at 10%.

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Pro testing is done in a certain style, there is beer and pork chops.

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Emmanuel Macron is not popular. In an era of rising populism,

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Emmanuel Macron is that most despised of creatures, a former

:17:45.:17:51.

banker turned technocrat, a pro-EU, pro-immigration liberal and yet, he

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is the favourite to win on Sunday. So who is he really? This is a

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senior adviser to President all on when Emmanuel Macron appeared as if

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out of nowhere to take the second most powerful job at the leaves

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palace. He was seductive, charming and clever.

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France is divided. Emmanuel Macron is running on a programme of

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economic liberalisation, reform of the Labour law, string given the

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state. Marine Le Pen wants tariff and increased welfare spending,

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these are the battle lines in an election in which neither of the two

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traditional parties has a candidate. Emmanuel Macron owes his rise to

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Francois Hollande who adopted him as his political son. Over the past

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five years, this man chronicles his presidency, interviewing him more

:19:12.:19:15.

than 60 times. When Emmanuel Macron left the Socialist Party to run for

:19:16.:19:20.

President, President Hollande soared as a betrayal. He has the face of an

:19:21.:19:27.

angel, but in, he is not an angel, in he is very ambitious and he wants

:19:28.:19:34.

to succeed. If he had to kill the father, he could do it, he did it.

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He is like my curve LE. Emmanuel Macron of course is not the first

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successful politician to exhibit a ruthless streak. What bothers some

:19:48.:19:51.

people about him is precisely the speed of his success. The fact that

:19:52.:19:55.

he appears to have come from nowhere. In a provincial town north

:19:56.:20:05.

of Paris where he grew up, we visited the place where he met his

:20:06.:20:09.

future wife, his drama teacher, 24 years his senior. This man and the

:20:10.:20:17.

young Emmanuel Macron word drama students together. He was friendly,

:20:18.:20:26.

easy to talk to, but he was also in a way secretive. They shared a

:20:27.:20:30.

passion for the theatre but on the subject of his secret love, Macron

:20:31.:20:35.

never confided in his friend. In fact, we never spoke about it. And I

:20:36.:20:42.

think, maybe we were good friends because I was not the type of guy to

:20:43.:20:47.

ask about those kind of things. Like everyone we spoke to, he speaks

:20:48.:20:53.

about the charm of Macron, but is it genuine or is he still acting? Both,

:20:54.:21:01.

really deeply both. His desire to help people, to serve his country,

:21:02.:21:08.

is bound up with his desire to be centre stage. In the town centre,

:21:09.:21:14.

Emmanuel Macron has his supporters, but if he wins the presidency, he

:21:15.:21:19.

will do so outside of the party system and without a Parliamentary

:21:20.:21:23.

base and that is likely to be a problem. Recent attempts to reform

:21:24.:21:30.

the Labour law have been both ineffective and unpopular. If Macron

:21:31.:21:35.

becomes President, expect more protests but if he does no one will

:21:36.:21:36.

be able to say they were not warned. Across Europe, the old duopoly of

:21:37.:22:10.

centre left and centre right is looking vulnerable. In France, it

:22:11.:22:14.

may have had its day, the new battle between the globalists and the

:22:15.:22:17.

Nationalists will not be concluded with the selection, whoever wins on

:22:18.:22:19.

Sunday. Gabriel Gatehouse reporting. The noisy boy band that is Ukip

:22:20.:22:26.

fielded 146 councillors So are they suffering

:22:27.:22:30.

second album syndrome? Is there anything left

:22:31.:22:34.

for them to do now? Or should they quietly

:22:35.:22:36.

disband and go home? David Grossman has

:22:37.:22:38.

been looking at them. Is Ukip a political force that has

:22:39.:22:55.

run its course? Like the abolitionists, the charters, the

:22:56.:22:59.

anti-Cornwall league and the suffragettes. All of them faded away

:23:00.:23:04.

when their principal aims had been secured. Indeed, it is hard to read

:23:05.:23:08.

last nights results in any other way, just months after the party

:23:09.:23:13.

secured its single-minded objective and almost complete wipe-out. All

:23:14.:23:19.

the seats it was defending laws, a single council seat games.

:23:20.:23:23.

Disappointing that I did not get back in, but unfortunately people

:23:24.:23:29.

are voting Conservative or Labour, because they think Brexit is

:23:30.:23:34.

finished. Has the music stopped for a Ukip? This is Boston in

:23:35.:23:37.

Lincolnshire, the Moors breads at supporting part of the UK. The

:23:38.:23:43.

county started the night with 13 Ukip councillors but not one dodge

:23:44.:23:49.

the draft. Ukip voters seem to stampede to the Conservatives. I

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always voted Labour and my family were all Labour, I have never voted

:23:53.:23:56.

for the Tories. We started voting for Ukip and now they have done

:23:57.:24:03.

their job. I like but the Tory party has to say, much better than Labour

:24:04.:24:07.

now. It will be Tory for me from now on. Their job is done now. I like

:24:08.:24:15.

Theresa reason Meynell and I think he is better and you can believe

:24:16.:24:21.

what she is saying. Membership of the European Union has been a

:24:22.:24:26.

disaster for us. Ukip was founded by this man as a pushback against

:24:27.:24:31.

European federalism. Popular support group from its campaign to stop

:24:32.:24:36.

Britain joining the euro, still remembered in its badge, but it only

:24:37.:24:41.

really took off after the huge wave of Easton European immigration hit

:24:42.:24:47.

the UK after 2004. The breakthrough came through in 2009 and they came

:24:48.:24:51.

second in the European elections and their estimated vote share in the

:24:52.:24:56.

council elections held on the same day was 9%. Fast forward to 2013 and

:24:57.:25:02.

Ukip turned in its best domestic performance with 23% of the vote.

:25:03.:25:07.

They slipped the following year, but came first in the European

:25:08.:25:11.

Parliament elections. In the general election of 2015, they got 13% and

:25:12.:25:18.

3.8 million votes. But yesterday, post the Brexit referendum, their

:25:19.:25:21.

projected vote share has plummeted to just 5%. I think it is over for

:25:22.:25:28.

Ukip, job done, we were instrumental in making sure we got the referendum

:25:29.:25:32.

and we played a part in making sure we won the referendum and now what

:25:33.:25:36.

we need to make sure we do is that Theresa May has a big mandate on

:25:37.:25:39.

June the 8th to make sure she gets on with it. So might the party that

:25:40.:25:44.

Nigel Farage helped found go the same way as the anti-slavery

:25:45.:25:49.

movement, commemorated in this Westminster memorial? If, in two

:25:50.:25:54.

years' time, we have not got back our territorial fishing waters and

:25:55.:25:57.

immigration is not under control and we are still paying billions of

:25:58.:26:01.

pounds to the European club, then having raised expectations to this

:26:02.:26:04.

level, and having not delivered, you could see a Ukip stronger than it

:26:05.:26:10.

has ever been. The current Ukip leader has declined all requests for

:26:11.:26:13.

interviews today, but in a statement said that the party had been the

:26:14.:26:22.

victim of its own success. It is hard to believe that in two decades,

:26:23.:26:27.

Ukip went from this to alter in the cause of the nation's history. Few

:26:28.:26:31.

would argue that we would have had the EU referendum without it and

:26:32.:26:35.

yet, there is no gratitude in politics and of Ukip want an encore,

:26:36.:26:39.

it will have to continually renew its relevance. David Grossman there.

:26:40.:26:43.

Gerard Batten is the Ukip MEP for London and Brexit spokesman.

:26:44.:26:46.

Very nice of you to come in. We heard from Theresa May today and

:26:47.:26:56.

from other party leaders, but we did not see Paul Nuttall at all. I don't

:26:57.:27:01.

know where he is. I have sent him messages but I do not know where he

:27:02.:27:05.

was. The rumour was that he was hiding in his house. He has done

:27:06.:27:08.

that before, he goes into hiding when he does not want to face

:27:09.:27:13.

people. He has been busy and he is entitled to a rest. This is why I am

:27:14.:27:17.

speaking to you. He is the leader of your party and he cannot be

:27:18.:27:22.

connecting well with voters. I am the Brexit spokesperson and what I

:27:23.:27:25.

think will be relevant is what has been discussed there. We are a

:27:26.:27:30.

victim of her own success. Politics is a funny business. The

:27:31.:27:36.

Conservative Party have got a surge of votes partly on the back of 25

:27:37.:27:40.

years of hard work by Ukip and the fact that we got the referendum and

:27:41.:27:45.

the fact that we won it and this is probably the most undeserved

:27:46.:27:48.

political victory in British political history. We had Mrs May

:27:49.:27:52.

who was a Remainer, a Conservative government that can pay to remain

:27:53.:27:55.

and now they have the task of taking us out and were Ukip will be

:27:56.:27:59.

relevant is because soon it will become apparent that Mrs May is not

:28:00.:28:01.

going to deliver the they voted for. Nigel

:28:02.:28:26.

Farage said if in two years' time, it is hard to write a manifesto

:28:27.:28:29.

around that, clearly people like the track she is on because she has had

:28:30.:28:31.

an extraordinary electoral day-to-day. They are not coming back

:28:32.:28:34.

to you for that. I think it will be quicker. If you read the White Paper

:28:35.:28:37.

on what the government plans to do, they plan to take us out of the EU

:28:38.:28:40.

in name but in substance we will be members. The election is in one

:28:41.:28:43.

month, how many candidates will you field? You have lost one of your key

:28:44.:28:46.

donors, you do not seem to have the voter base. He has not been a key

:28:47.:28:49.

donor for a long time. We always come up with the money. We do not

:28:50.:28:52.

have that take business or the unions but we always come up for the

:28:53.:28:55.

money. I do not know how many candidates there will be. I am not

:28:56.:28:57.

at the centre of the planning. We fielded about 600 last time and we

:28:58.:29:01.

will do as many as we can. We are suffering from the problem that

:29:02.:29:03.

people think Theresa May will deliver Brexit. You could just say,

:29:04.:29:11.

are job is done. Pack up, go home. Our job is to get Britain out of the

:29:12.:29:14.

European Union and what has happened since last year is nothing except

:29:15.:29:18.

they triggered Article 50, the wrong way to go about it, nothing has

:29:19.:29:21.

happened and nothing will happen for two years and not a single lot of

:29:22.:29:29.

peeled,. That does not look like leaving to me. Is it right to go on

:29:30.:29:38.

fairly odd minority issues, will that be helpful? Personally, that

:29:39.:29:41.

was a press conference that was planned a long time ago.

:29:42.:29:44.

Unfortunately it looked like we were leading the campaign on the burqa,

:29:45.:29:49.

but that was just an issue. You do not want to run as an anti-Islamic

:29:50.:29:56.

party? There are elements, it is a bad cultural integration. It is

:29:57.:29:59.

about defending rights under our laws and customs. That is what that

:30:00.:30:04.

is about and that is a part of a bigger package and made a mistake it

:30:05.:30:08.

was making it appear we were leading on it which we are not. One month

:30:09.:30:13.

ago you were writing that we should stop calling it Islam, we should

:30:14.:30:19.

return to what the West used to call it, it is a death cult, steeped in

:30:20.:30:24.

violence and bloodshed, perfectly rational fear of Islam. What part of

:30:25.:30:29.

those factual statements would people argue with? I guess voters

:30:30.:30:33.

are arguing with it, they heard you say that and you have only got one

:30:34.:30:38.

re-elected counsellor at night. I do not think, they did not vote for our

:30:39.:30:44.

councillors because of that. I think the reason we lost is because so

:30:45.:30:47.

many people actually do think that our job is done and think that

:30:48.:30:51.

Theresa May will deliver. Our job is not done and Theresa May will not

:30:52.:30:52.

deliver. You said he probably needs a rest? I

:30:53.:31:02.

didn't say he was locked up in his house. You said that. He has run a

:31:03.:31:11.

campaign. The hard one is yet to come? More reason for him to have a

:31:12.:31:15.

rest on Friday night then. Is you don't have a problem with that? No,

:31:16.:31:19.

I don't. Paul works very hard. I see him work very hard all the time. I'm

:31:20.:31:23.

happy to do this and talk about where we're going on Brexit. It's

:31:24.:31:28.

not whether we see him, it's whether the public sees him. From today's

:31:29.:31:35.

result you would suggest there has been a failure to connect somewhere

:31:36.:31:38.

with the voters? You have seen people on there tonight saying that

:31:39.:31:42.

they think, you Ukip's job is done. That is because we were so

:31:43.:31:46.

successful in doing what we did in getting the referendum and winning

:31:47.:31:49.

the referendum. So many people who actually think that Theresa May is

:31:50.:31:54.

going to deliver this Brexit. She is not. If you look at what they plan

:31:55.:32:02.

to do, at the end of three years, after the referendum nothing will

:32:03.:32:08.

have changed. We have seen stories of 100 billion euros. Which I think

:32:09.:32:14.

was cooked up between Juncker and Mrs May. You are not sure who the

:32:15.:32:22.

voters trust? I'm not sure they trust anybody. They can trust Ukip

:32:23.:32:27.

because we have done what we said over the last 20 years. Thank you.

:32:28.:32:33.

Well, we have assembled a new political panel

:32:34.:32:35.

Paul Mason, Guardian columnist, is here, as is Ian Dale, LBC Radio

:32:36.:32:38.

presenter and Polly McKenzie, special advisor to

:32:39.:32:40.

Great to have you all here. Paul, this was an overwhelmingly good day

:32:41.:32:45.

for the Tories, wasn't it, you presumably concede it?

:32:46.:32:49.

Overwhelmingly good day for hard Brexit. We have seen dramatic events

:32:50.:32:55.

of substance. It's not been a week of flimflam. Theresa May picked a

:32:56.:33:00.

real fight with the European Union. Walked away dramatically - she did

:33:01.:33:05.

her own bit. Walked away and created a diplomatic situation which I think

:33:06.:33:09.

has drama advertised in the minds of former Ukip voters the whole

:33:10.:33:14.

situation. We have an alliance of Tories and Ukip. That is new. That

:33:15.:33:19.

can win any election it wants to. Aggressive alliance isn't going to

:33:20.:33:23.

work? It he redoubles the need for that half of British politics that

:33:24.:33:32.

believes in progressive politician, globalalism, we need to stop

:33:33.:33:35.

fighting each other. We need to work out, it's entirely possible, how we

:33:36.:33:40.

can stop that Tory Ukip alliance taking Britain off the cliff edge

:33:41.:33:47.

into an economic catastrophe. Into WTO rules which isn't a cliff edge.

:33:48.:33:51.

Let's see the Tory manifesto calling for it. That's the - into nobody is

:33:52.:33:55.

saying that they want to go down that direction. It's not the

:33:56.:33:59.

disaster that people try to present it as. It's the way we trade with

:34:00.:34:02.

the rest of the world, as you well know. Ian, if you are right and if

:34:03.:34:08.

this is going to direct towards a big majority in a month's time. This

:34:09.:34:13.

is the chance for her to do a radical manifesto, isn't it? She can

:34:14.:34:17.

push through anything she wanted. Will she? I don't think she will.

:34:18.:34:24.

She has been a cautious politicians. Over the past few weeks she proved

:34:25.:34:28.

to be anything but a cautious politicians. First of all by calling

:34:29.:34:32.

the election. Second of all, doing the speech on Tuesday and Wednesday

:34:33.:34:36.

in Downing Street where she took the fight to the European Commission.

:34:37.:34:40.

Paul is right. I think it did have quite an effect. There is talk of a

:34:41.:34:45.

Tory Ukip alliance. I understand why Paul says that that. It's the

:34:46.:34:48.

Conservatives trying to win back the Ukip votes they have lost over the

:34:49.:34:56.

last 25 years? It's not an alliance Doctor Who alien they absorbed Ukip

:34:57.:35:02.

voters. That's what parties do. The Labour Party sometimes, sounds like,

:35:03.:35:05.

it doesn't want anybody who ever voted Tory to vote for it because

:35:06.:35:10.

they are toxic. Where is the remain vote then? It's not going to the Lib

:35:11.:35:14.

Dems. There hasn't been the resurgence that you were expecting.

:35:15.:35:18.

Where are the remainers in this? It's been, no question, disaint

:35:19.:35:22.

poking night for the Lib Dems and who would have hoped to do better.

:35:23.:35:26.

Specially in the leave areas it's proved it's not possible to just,

:35:27.:35:30.

sort of, win back areas that the Lib Dems had once before. In remain

:35:31.:35:35.

areas where the Lib Dems have a presence there have been points of

:35:36.:35:39.

light, good results for the Lib Dems. Paul is basically right. I

:35:40.:35:43.

don't think I've ever said that before. We need to find a way. None

:35:44.:35:49.

of the parties of the left have anything to challenge Theresa May

:35:50.:35:53.

her popularity, her poise. Something about her people like. Something

:35:54.:35:58.

needs to change. If she's ever going to stop being Prime I have staunch

:35:59.:36:02.

Minister. Labour voters ringing in saying - I voted Labour every

:36:03.:36:05.

election I could do. There's something about Theresa May I like.

:36:06.:36:09.

When I asked them what it is, they can't explain what it is. I think

:36:10.:36:14.

that's a very interesting phenomenon. List of foreign workers

:36:15.:36:18.

who we are going to expel from the British workforce. Please. That

:36:19.:36:27.

played well among racist voters. Amber Rudd, Theresa May the Tory

:36:28.:36:32.

Conference was a racist horse and pony show. This is why Labour can't

:36:33.:36:37.

make progress. We can stop it. Labour has to change one thing. In

:36:38.:36:41.

four weeks? Absolutely. It needs to talk about Brexit. The one thing

:36:42.:36:47.

Labour is doing wrong, YouGov showed all party voters the number one

:36:48.:36:50.

issue for them is Brexit. For most of them the number two issues is

:36:51.:36:58.

immigration. You are saying Corbyn and McDonnell should stop talk of

:36:59.:37:05.

NHS - They should reframe it what Britain you want after Brexit. When

:37:06.:37:11.

Theresa May maded that speech the instinct of the Labour machine was,

:37:12.:37:15.

don't talk about it, don't respond. It's about something we haven't

:37:16.:37:19.

really - an issue we don't own. They needed to own that issue. Labour are

:37:20.:37:23.

deeply split on whether we should be leaving at all and exactly what kind

:37:24.:37:27.

of approach you should have. Whether it's a free market or socialist

:37:28.:37:32.

approach? Let me answer. Today proves that any attempt to win back

:37:33.:37:37.

that part of the electorate that is pro-Brexit is a fool's errand for

:37:38.:37:43.

Labour. Manchester, Andy Burnham won in almost every ward. Manchester is

:37:44.:37:48.

full of Tories. Plenty of Tories, skilled workers and middle-class

:37:49.:37:52.

people. Appealing to the inner soul of progress i politics Burnham did

:37:53.:37:56.

well. He walked away from Jeremy Corbyn tonight. They want a

:37:57.:38:02.

traditional, simple message. That that is what Sion Simon said.

:38:03.:38:06.

Patriotism, hard work, law and order. Is that where the Labour vote

:38:07.:38:11.

is? No. I don't buy that. You called part of the Tory vote Rayses. I'm

:38:12.:38:17.

sorry. Amber Rudd and Theresa May at their conference wanted us to make

:38:18.:38:21.

list of foreign workers. They were your voters before they went to Ukip

:38:22.:38:26.

and the Tories. The Labour movement. , the Labour Party is a line drawn

:38:27.:38:31.

through working-class communities, between people who support globalism

:38:32.:38:36.

and internationalism and anti-racism and people who don't. It always

:38:37.:38:41.

existed. We will fight this battle in favour of our principles. The

:38:42.:38:48.

problem is - The challenge - And the Greens and the SNP should be on the

:38:49.:38:52.

same side. If you have got these blue collar workers, people who

:38:53.:38:56.

voted Brexit, who were left behind, who saw wages stagnant she has to

:38:57.:39:00.

deliver for thoem them, not just about Brexit, it may not Sol all the

:39:01.:39:03.

problems, about everything pels their life? Of course. Everyone

:39:04.:39:07.

wants politicians to deliver. The reason Jeremy Corbyn isn't

:39:08.:39:09.

delivering at the moment is because he's not actually - he hasn't got a

:39:10.:39:15.

positive vision. We hear doom and gloom about poverty and the rest of

:39:16.:39:18.

it. There are problems in society, I get that. If you are a politician

:39:19.:39:23.

that can't do what Tony Blair did in 1997 offer a positive vision, the

:39:24.:39:28.

sunny uplands, to the aspirational middle-classes you are not going to

:39:29.:39:31.

win you can't just win appealing to people who have massive problems in

:39:32.:39:39.

their lives. Is Tim Farron the aspirational, sunny uplands

:39:40.:39:42.

candidate from the progressive alliance then? Tim is - has got a

:39:43.:39:49.

clear and coherent vision and a party unified behind it. Could you

:39:50.:39:54.

have an alliance with anyone else? The challenge for anyone wanting to

:39:55.:39:58.

form a political alliance is not wanting to draw lines and tell other

:39:59.:40:03.

people they are racist or patriotic or not patriotic. That is the

:40:04.:40:06.

challenge for anyone involved in politics who is naturally very

:40:07.:40:10.

tribal and wants to point out the differences. To be honest, I don't

:40:11.:40:15.

think there is anyone outside of the Conservative Party, doing a

:40:16.:40:18.

brilliant job of unionifying people who disagree with them, who isening

:40:19.:40:22.

maing to do that, looking beyond themselves and trying to

:40:23.:40:27.

collaborate. Back in history, all successful parties are coalitions.

:40:28.:40:32.

They build coalitions between people who believe in 60%, 70% of their

:40:33.:40:36.

platforms. Theresa May won't believe in 100% of the policy platform she

:40:37.:40:41.

puts forward. No-one does in their party. Reagan and Clinton appealed

:40:42.:40:46.

to people outside their own parties as did Thatcher and Blair. Jeremy

:40:47.:40:49.

Corbyn isn't doing that at the moment. Theresa May is the most

:40:50.:40:53.

successful politician at doing this. There is no aspiration when you look

:40:54.:41:01.

at Jeremy Corbyn? Absolutely not. A Labour spokesman said wait for the

:41:02.:41:05.

manifesto. We have to get the manifesto passed by a committee.

:41:06.:41:08.

That manifesto will be exactly what you want, aspirational, not just for

:41:09.:41:11.

poor people, for middle-class people. We heard no policies so far.

:41:12.:41:16.

All the policies - I would agree there's been a - 20 point plan

:41:17.:41:20.

earlier this week. What will come will be a four or five point plan

:41:21.:41:27.

that has to out drama the drama queen of Downing Street. I think it

:41:28.:41:31.

will. That's why I'm hoping hopeful we can stop a Tory Government. We

:41:32.:41:35.

have run out of time. Thank you all very much. Thank you for coming in.

:41:36.:41:39.

Well, what a pretty exciting day in politics, wasn't it?

:41:40.:41:41.

We wouldn't want you to take that adrenaline with you to bed.

:41:42.:41:44.

So we thought we'd send you off with a reading of something

:41:45.:41:47.

from the Boring Conference, being held tomorrow.

:41:48.:41:48.

A list of every sneeze one man has made since 2007.

:41:49.:41:51.

Birmingham, moderate - cropping an image with

:41:52.:42:00.

Birmingham, moderate - checking credit card

:42:01.:42:08.

Moderate to strong - detonating an Angry Bird.

:42:09.:42:22.

Moderate - reading Amazon reviews by, not about, James Ward.

:42:23.:42:34.

Moderate - vegetarian hotdog-style sandwich is prepared.

:42:35.:42:39.

There is going to be a lot more clouded sky in England and Wales for

:42:40.:43:03.

the first part of the weekend, the odd early shower

:43:04.:43:04.

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