04/05/2017 Newsnight


With Kirsty Wark. Includes analysis of the local elections, an adviser to Emmanuel Macron on the French election, and a Srebrenica survivor returns to the city.

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Millions of votes have been cast for local councillors


in England Wales and Scotland and a clutch of metro mayors,


but what was in the minds of the voters?


Was this the big rehearsal for the general election?


I've learned that Labour are preparing for a bloody night.


the Elysee on Monday, and what will that mean for Brexit?


That's the place where mass executions took place.


I could see the lines and lines and rows and


I knew it was the end, really, at that moment.


One of the few survivors of the Srebrenica massacre returns


The Duke of Edinburgh is hanging up his hat at 96 after


The ballot boxes were sealed half an hour ago after 35 local elections


in England, in all Scottish and Welsh Councils,


The results will be interpreted as a bellwether


for the general election five weeks away, today.


It's a key test for Jeremy Corbyn's leadership


and although big Labour names like Andy Burnham may get


the job he desperately wants, Mayor of Greater Manchester,


Nick Watt here to tell us what to look out for.


I think Labour braced for heavy losses across Britain. Polling


experts suggest they could lose up to hundred and 20 seats. Opposition


parties should not be losing seats in local council elections. I think


we might be hearing that the loss will be even more dramatic, 300 to


400. There are two explanations for that. The reason is last time the


seats were fought Labour war on a high after the omnishambles budget


and the project as we have had in recent weeks were focused on England


and have not taken into account that we have elections in Scotland and


Wales. Let me sound a note of caution. Parties do tend to embark


on expectation management. They say things will be really dreadful so


when they are merely dreadful it is a slightly rosier picture. Give me


some examples. I think Labour are braced for the loss of the iconic


Glasgow City Council to the SNP. That will capture headlines. But the


sense, it is a line in Glasgow City Council with the Holyrood and


Westminster elections. In itself very symbolic? Yes. The West


Midlands mayoral contest is a Labour heartland but the feeling is that is


on a knife edge and turnout is really low which will be very bad


for Labour. But there is the odd ray of sunshine. Andy Burnham should win


in Greater Manchester. His mate Steve Rotherham should win in


Liverpool and tomorrow night when we get the projected national share


from the local elections, I think what Labour will hope is that will


show a narrow gap between them and the Tories then we have seen


in the opinion polls. What have we been hearing from the Tories? I


think they're expecting gains of 50 to 80 in the local elections. If it


is more than that, they will be happy. If it is any more than that


they will be jumping for joy. They will be saying they did better than


expected when the seats were contested last round so little room


for improvement they will say. Thank you.


At the last election, pundits were caught out by the polls,


but there were clues that we could have caught.


A look at the seats where top Tories were campaigning might have


So, in an effort to learn from our mistakes, our policy editor


Chris Cook has been mapping the campaign so far.


Here is his unique analysis of what they will show.


The critical fight at this election remains, as it has done, for a


century, the battle between the Conservatives and Labour.


The parties have already started a flurry of campaigning


with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn crisscrossing Britain


to get their faces in local media.


So, what can we tell about the two parties from what they're up to?


We used to talking about swings, so a simple 5% swing from Labour to


the Tories would mean 43 more Conservative seats.


And a 4% swing from the Tories to Labour would mean


29 more Labour seats, making Labour the largest party


Because it's voters keep moving to the Tories.


So, we probably need something a bit more


On this graph, we've plotted all the Labour-Tory battle grounds.


Each dot is a constituency and we've arranged them


The furthest left dots are the safest Labour seats


from 2015 and the furthest right dots are the safest Tory seats.


The most marginal ones are the ones in the middle.


Now, looking vertically, the higher up dots are seats


It's got a 7,000 vote Labour lead over the Tories, which is safe.


But it's a place with 13,000 Ukip voters and that's a lot.


It's one of the seats where Ukip voters breaking Tory could break


In fact, let's draw a line in here on this graph.


All of the seats above this line, more than 60 of them,


are ones where, if the Ukip votes goes Tory, it would be


enough, to flip the seat to the Conservatives on their own.


So, you can see why it is strategically


helpful for Theresa May to take a very hard line on the EU.


Threats against Britain have been issued by


All of these acts have been deliberately timed to affect the


result of the general election that will take place on the 8th of June.


There's a huge reward for hoovering up Ukip votes.


Remember that when you look at these rosettes.


They mark constituencies where Theresa May has campaigned.


Now, a few stops in Tory seats, but most are deep


Note, though, she's chosen Labour seats where attracting


former Ukip voters can do most or all of the work of winning.


Jeremy Corbyn's campaign style is certainly very different.


These red rosettes marking Mr Corbyn's


recent stops are mostly in seats with relatively slender Tory leads.


It is possible Labour simply plans to do that in a few weeks' time.


Let's wait. The Tory campaign stops they were more revealing. They show


the plans to ride a wave of ex-Ukip is right into Labour's heartland.


Emmanuel Macron was widely regarded as having bested Marine Le Pen


in last night's vicious television Presidential debate


in which she called him a spoilt, cold-eyed smirking banker


and he branded her a hate-filled liar.


But after the venomous battle that lasted almost three hours,


a billet doux for Macron from the last American President,


whose flagship policy has taken a battering tonight.


a billet doux for Macron from the last American President.


I have admired the campaign that Emmanuel Macron has run.


He put forward a vision for the important role that


France plays in Europe and around the world.


And he is committed to a better future for the French people.


He appeals to people's hopes and not their fears.


Because of how important this election is, I also want you to know


that I am supporting Emmanuel Macron to lead you forward.


But does the fact that Barack Obama is rooting for him,


only reinforce the "elitist" tag, and demonstrate that this renegade


presidential candidate is really the Establishment man?


I'm joined from Paris Jean Pisoni Ferry who is co-ordinating Macron's


economic programme and whose political and personal heritage


is entwined with the development of the European Union and who has


been described as Macron's eminence grise.


Good evening. First of all, on that point, when Barack Obama intervened


in Brexit, it was counter-productive. Is the Obama


video not risky, because it looks like Macron, who claims not to be an


establishment candidate, very much is? Well, I would not regret


President Obama's short video, what he said is really genuine. He says


what Macron stands for. He stands for hope and not for fear, it is


exactly that, and President Obama have a strong image with the French


public overall. So definitely I would not regret.


I wonder what voters it might sway because how to explain that many


Melenchon or Fillon supporters would rather not vote than vote for


Macron? We are going through a realignment in French politics. This


is extremely impressive what we are seeing. We see that about 25% of the


voters chose candidates from established parties and 75% chose


candidates from his party were barely represented in Parliament. So


we are seeing something really new. We still have to understand what it


means. Definitely, there is a divide across, within the electorate,


between those who stand for more openness, who have hopes, who see


opportunities, and those who are more fearful of the revolution. That


is something we have seen elsewhere but we do hope it will turn


differently in the French case. You are such a key part of a Emmanuel


Macron's campaign and his plans for government, and I wonder if you


yourself are saying the divide is so huge, what can Macron do to bring


onside to 40% of French voters who are so far to the right? Macron is


going to, if he wins, he is going to win on the basis of those who in the


first round voted for him, plus those from the left and the right


who do not want at all Marine Le Pen to be the next president. Now, he


will have to implement an agenda of significant change, because the


underlying situation we are living is deeply unsatisfactory and this


election is an expression of the deep dissatisfaction of the fears of


a significant fraction of the French voters. What will happen? If he


wins, one of his first big jobs is having to deal with Brexit. He is


reported as saying Brexit is a crime, it is a crime for the UK to


leave and they will be facing servitude. A lot of heat has been in


this divorce bill now and I wonder what does Emmanuel Macron think the


UK should pay in that divorce? He is going to side with the 27. There


will be a gauche nation about Brexit, about its implications, the


terms -- there will be a negotiation. I just want to ask you,


do you think Emmanuel Macron's position is near the 60 billion or


the 100 billion we were hearing about last week? Annual Macron, I do


think he will defer significantly from the French position, and I


don't want to enter the detail at this stage. You were asking me about


the significance of the French vote and the agenda Emmanuel Macron will


put forward in France and I think he will start from there, because


primarily he will be elected to change the French situation and the


French economy and the social situation we are seeing. So I think


that will be his domestic focus. Now, he is relieved pro-European,


Europe is part of his agenda. He wants Europe to be part of the


solution and that is really something also quite different from


what we have seen in the UK, but also quite different from what we


have seen in France in the past, where the French government were


lukewarm about Europe. Thank you. The Screbrinica massacre in July


1995 was one of the most dreadful More than 8,000 Muslim


Bosniak boys and men were murdered by units


of the Bosnian Serb Army under Ratko Mladic who captured


the designated safe area supposedly under UN protection


and commited genocide. Only six men survived


the massacre and escaped. One of them continues to fight


for justice and a decade ago actually returned to live


in the town most associated Katie Razzall went to Srebrinica


for this special report into one man's battle to take on the Serb


deniers who say genocide We should warn you that


Katie Razall's film includes graphic scenes from the time, which some


viewers may find distressing. We didn't believe that we would be


killed because there are so many people and I couldn't believe


that they could kill all of us. In July 1995, Bosnian Serb soldiers


shot dead thousands of unarmed It was Europe's worst atrocity


since the Second World War. I had nightmares that


I didn't ever get rid of. But today, the genocide verdicts


of the International Court are being questioned by politicians


and the town's new mayor, even here, where the


massacres took place. Nejad Addic returned


to Srebrenica five years ago. -- Nejad Addic returned


to Srebrenica ten years ago. He and his wife Elvisa are bringing


up their three daughters in what became the Republic


of Srpska, the Bosnian Serb entity Nejad is one of it is believed only


six survivors of around 8,000 I had a deep need inside me to come


here, to show them that I survived. His return after the war


was a gesture of defiance against those who wanted


Muslims erased. But he says life is becoming


increasingly difficult. I worry, because of discourse


and the rhetoric I hear in Bosnia, We have a new indoctrinated


generation of children. Everywhere you have propaganda,


and because of that, my wife, During the war, Srebrenica


became a UN safe haven, packed with fleeing Muslim Bosnian


refugees, including Elvisa But the UN abandoned them in 1995


when Bosnian Serb forces The leader of the Bosnian Serb


forces, General Ratko Mladic, now on trial for genocide


in The Hague, Women and children like


Elvisa were bussed out. Nejad took us on the journey he made


back in 1995, then as a prisoner, crammed into a truck with dozens


of others, This is the place where the mass


execution took place. I could see the lines and lines,


rows and rows of dead bodies. I knew it was the end


really, that moment. They ordered us to lay down


and I just thought my mother would never know where I ended up,


how I finished, and... Then they started


fire and I was dying. I just could hear moans, moans


of other people who were wounded. It was so painful, I just


prayed to God to die. Then I noticed someone


was moving in front of me The pair escaped when the soldiers


went to collect more men to kill. Nejad was badly wounded


and in terrible pain. As day broke and they crawled


through the forest, the full scale and planning behind


the massacre became apparent. After the war, the international


effort to find and identify In amongst them, Nejad's


father and uncle. I'm know that my uncle,


his remains were found They wanted to hide it and rebury


them again and because of that The current president


of Republic of Srpska, doesn't accept the international


court verdicts Here, they celebrate


convicted war criminals, like the former president


Radovan Karadzic as heroes. The wartime general Ratko Mladic


is still on trial, but so far, six senior figures have been found


guilty of genocide When Radovan Karadzic's


second-in-command was released from prison a few years ago,


he was feted. No longer a predominantly


Muslim town, the scars of war are still visible


in Srebrenica today. Last year, the town elected


in new mayor who has promised It is the first time a Bosnian Serb


has filled the role since the war, but his views on the Srebrenica


massacre have caused alarm among some of the people


who have returned. Do you believe Radovan


Karadzic is a hero? Do you accept the judgment


of the International Court that Some argue the Balkan War


is a frozen conflict. That Republic of Srpska's ruling


politicians still want to set up the entirely separate Bosnian Serb


state they did not With international eyes focused


elsewhere, the president really With international eyes focused


elsewhere, the president regularly threatens a referendum on the entity


seceding from Bosnia-Herzegovina. His mayor in Srebrenica is not


averse to that idea. With the mood changing,


Nejad and Elvisa tell me they already know Bosnians who have


packed up and left. If you leave, who


will be the winner? In that case, the genocide


would pay off. Those who committed such horror,


they would be the winner. Every year, on the anniversary,


more men are buried in the vast memorial to the genocide


victims of Srebrenica. Sometimes, a bone fragment


is all that has been found. For 22 years, Nejad has carried


the burden of being one survivor Amongst the dead, the father


to whom he never got to say goodbye. This reminds me of the last


moment, when I last saw my


father in his house. I wondered, based on his


experiences, whether Nejad has a warning about where unchecked


nationalism can lead. Hatred, nationalistic


conversation can take us to war, Very often I, ask myself


where we are going now, because I fear very bad


things in Europe. And what of true reconciliation


here, where genocide is denied in the very place where


it is judged to have happened? Those who had their hands bloody,


if they come one day and ask for forgiveness,


I think it wouldn't be a problem For now though, the divisions


in a country apparently still so split along ethnic lines,


look almost as wide as ever. You can see a longer version of that


film on "Our World" on the BBC News Channel at 9:30 on Saturday


and Sunday night and, Now the part of the programme that


delivers a verbal punch. Viewsnight is designed


to get your blood up. Tonight, that task falls to writer


Afua Hirsh who has strong words Abolish faith schools,


they harm children. -- Abolish faith schools,


they harm integration. Britain has a problem


with integration. But instead of any serious,


long-term policies, The response has been confined to


contrived and patronising measures. The Duke of Edinburgh,


whose retirement from public duties was announced today,


had a traumatic early life. He was evacuated from Greece


in an orange box for a cot Perhaps that early resilience has


fuelled him through his eventful 96 years during which,


as consort, he has carried approximately 23,000 solo public


duties and courted a measure So what do we expect from brand


"monarchy" by way of duty and public service and has Prince Philip


genuinely delivered it? Roya Nikkhah is royal correspondent


at The Sunday Times and Shon Faye is a


writer and activist. First of all, do you think the


Royals are the kind of essence of what you think is public duty and


service? I think Prince Philip certainly is. This is a man for 70


years has dedicated his life to supporting a one in which is frankly


extraordinary service to the country. He has done it with


forthright humour but he has achieved an enormous amount in


public life for his charities which he has done quietly and not banged


the drum about. I think his steadfastness and commitment to the


monarchy is pretty extraordinary over 70 years. That point about


charities, he is patron of something like 780 charities. Those charities


clearly thought it was a benefit to them having his support? Yes, and I


think that is an important part of what the monarchy does in public


life. I suppose my query of that is we have come to accept the presence


of the monarchy as it depoliticised mascot for the nation and the


charitable sector. That allows us to depoliticised other issues like


austerity and some of the social issues. It can be very good to have


a royal attached to a cause but not to look at the underlying political


causes. But there are some courses that they -- to which he was


attached which are for the greater benefit of the nation? Yes, but


equally, his position in respect of that, when we talk about his


service, it is important to remember that his service, it is discussed on


the news as if it was given fully willingly, but there is a huge


amount of privilege which he received in return for that service.


The point about privilege is obviously that the Queen was born


into it but he wasn't, he had to come into it and I suppose in that


sense, he inherited by way of marriage that sense of privilege?


Yes, he inherited a sense of privilege but he also inherited


having to give up his career. This was a man in the 1950s, it was


generally assumed and believed he would have gone right to the top of


the Navy. How many men in the 1950s were willing to give that up for a


woman? He was actually born into privilege, but I do think we should


look at the Duke of Edinburgh and think of


him as an incredibly privileged man, he has led a privileged life but he


has also done an enormous amount of work. Things like the Duke of


Edinburgh's scheme which has helped young people right across the social


strata. Yes, I never got my bronze! You did not get your bronze, but the


fact that you know about it, was it something that was worth getting?


Yes, certainly and there are plenty of examples of that. The younger


royals speaking out about mental health recently. It should give us


pause for thought saying Prince Philip is a privileged man and has


worked hard all his life, there are plenty of people who have worked


hard at their entire lives and do sacrifice and work hard. For the


Royals, those sacrifices are elevated into a unique way in the


way we discuss them. That you could also say that lots of celebrities,


because they are good at football or modelling or whatever, you get a lot


of money and they are in a huge position of privilege, and they


didn't necessarily give back in the same way that you might regard


someone who has been doing it for 70 years has given back? I would say


the monarchy is a pretty unique institution that in this country it


is the product of a class system and has been falling over hundreds of


years, and it is also enriched by colonial spoils. We had a huge


empire and we are still in its final days. We do, but the issue with that


is, the public if they wanted to could probably get rid of the


monarchy but every year when the nation is polled they are


overwhelmingly in favour of keeping a monarchy. One also assumes that he


will be working behind the scenes with the Queen? There is no doubt he


will be working with every single day and supporting her still thank


you. What's it like to be the Labour


candidate in the general election when you think your leader


is a disaster, in a seat which has a proud history of building


nuclear powered submarines, when your leader is ambivalent


at best to nuclear? Barrow-in-Furness in Cumbria


was solidly Labour after the war until 1983, when Labour under


Michael Foot campaigned for unilateral nuclear


disarmament and lost the seat When Labour changed its policy,


it took the seat back, but what now for Barrow-in-Furness,


high up on the Tory target list? Filmmaker Nick Blakemore spent


the first week of the campaign A vote for Labour


is a vote for Corbyn I don't think he would be fit


to be Prime Minister. Even if it were possible


that it was going to happen. I want to be Labour candidate,


but I'm not prepared to accept even the theoretical possibility


that he will be Prime Minister. Because, one, it's not


going to happen, but, two, it wouldn't be right,


even if he did. I'm just really asking how


you're planning to vote in the general election,


how you're feeling I used to support Labour


but I don't know at the moment. My daughter's a single


parent and that. She doesn't get the support


that she should. So, I mean, she's working as well,


so it's really hard for her. How do we get people to vote


for you, when you are ..the elected leader,


forgive me, of the party, which I believe you represent


or have you gone independent? I don't want to be


against my party leader. He's got a reputation


of marching for CND, he's got a proud reputation


of being for peace and against war. The policies that have come


to the fore, under Corbyn are what, And, I feel, motivate


a lot of people. A business-as-usual election where


the candidate goes in and they, sort of, either say nice things


about the leader or they just try desperately not to mention him


on the doorstep and hope that other people don't bring him up


was just doomed to fail. I thought that was a good meeting,


actually, because lots And they were...


And party members in particular. There were people who weren't


happy about what I said There were actually also party


members who robustly agreed with it. But all of them in that meeting,


at the end, said, yes, they were going to vote for me


to vote Labour. So, actually, that is showing


a level of coming together. Theresa May has been very


smart and where she's been particularly smart,


she's letting people believe that she's going to deliver some big


Brexit iceberg I think she's going to


deliver an ice cube. Brexit will still mean Brexit,


but it'll be small enough to put They were nice enough,


polite enough, but pretty adamant, Alan, where are we going right


now, what's going on? As I understand it, a hotel


in Barrow has rather shamefully, pitifully closed a venue


because we were about to meet and hear from a lady


called Anne-Marie Walters. And, for whatever reason,


they've decided to pull it. So, we're going to see


if we can change their minds. She's a lady who has


a bit of a thing about... What do you call it?


Colin will know. I was just wondering if the event


has been cancelled this afternoon? The conference and events manager's


cancelled that for us. I don't know the


circumstances, I'm afraid. Can they legally do


that, do you think? Somebody's come a long way


to talk to us about stuff, I'm very sorry about that, gents,


but the event won't be taking place. That's a very good example


of what we're up against. So, I'm the candidate


for the Conservatives Can I ask, have you been


a Conservative voter all your life? I believe in, more than anything


else, a small state, people being able to get


on with their own lives without the burden of government


telling them what to do. I was just wondering, you know,


have you made your mind up I've just have deep-rooted


socialist background. I'm afraid I won't be voting


for the Conservatives. Everyone's in a tough position


because of the economic mess But actually, you can't get


into a decent position unless you've got a strong


and stable economy. How do you deliver efficiency


when ?200 million worth Well, I think you have


to look at where services You have to look at where


services can be shared. Let's make no bones about it,


we are still in a difficult financial situation across the UK,


but in Cumbria, as well. You know, if FGM stood


for Female Gob Manipulation I could probably be talked into it,


but it doesn't. That was a little joke,


then, you missed it! Firstly, I'd just like to thank


the Lisdoonie Hotel for saving I'd also like to congratulate


Mr Alan Piper for being selected unanimously to stand for Ukip


for the very first time... I've been called every far right


fascist, racist under the sun, If we don't really do something


about FGM now, we never will. I don't think that Muslims' opinions


on things are the only Now, we're not going to cure Sharia


in seven weeks, I don't disagree at all with what you're


saying about it. Because we've got to convince


the electorate in this And if you've got somebody


who is not solid Brexit, There's lots of claims about "We're


all in it together" and "we're all citizens" and "we're all working


together", but some of us are in And that's how people


feel in Barrow. My name's Loraine Birchall, I'm


the Liberal Democrat candidate... I don't feel this area


should be forgotten. That's someone we would hope to work


with literature and convince him I feel that we need to put up


a candidate to give people in this This is the worst period


for so many people. The number of people


using food banks, the number Barrow, in particular, is dependent


on BAE as a source of employment. And people are saying they wouldn't


vote green, because the greens We see the potential for something


amazing to happen at the shipyard, we just don't happen to believe that


building weapons The thing is, if Labour get in,


can you stop Trident? That is why I've decided


to be honest about this. What I think is not in the interest


of areas like here and areas right across the North of England


and beyond, is to have this sort of Tory whitewash,


where there are no Labour voices So that is the message we're trying


to get across on the doorstep. I don't know if it's


going to work yet. We will have all the big political


results tomorrow night. Until then, good night.


Hello. There will be a bit of a frost first thing in rural parts of


In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Kirsty Wark.

Includes analysis of the local elections, an adviser to Emmanuel Macron on the French election, a Srebrenica survivor returns to the city, a profile of Barrow voters, and Prince Philip's retirement.

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