04/05/2017 Newsnight

Millions of votes have been cast for local councillors

in England Wales and Scotland and a clutch of metro mayors,

but what was in the minds of the voters?

Was this the big rehearsal for the general election?

I've learned that Labour are preparing for a bloody night.

the Elysee on Monday, and what will that mean for Brexit?

That's the place where mass executions took place.

I could see the lines and lines and rows and

I knew it was the end, really, at that moment.

One of the few survivors of the Srebrenica massacre returns

The Duke of Edinburgh is hanging up his hat at 96 after

The ballot boxes were sealed half an hour ago after 35 local elections

in England, in all Scottish and Welsh Councils,

The results will be interpreted as a bellwether

for the general election five weeks away, today.

It's a key test for Jeremy Corbyn's leadership

and although big Labour names like Andy Burnham may get

the job he desperately wants, Mayor of Greater Manchester,

Nick Watt here to tell us what to look out for.

I think Labour braced for heavy losses across Britain. Polling

experts suggest they could lose up to hundred and 20 seats. Opposition

parties should not be losing seats in local council elections. I think

we might be hearing that the loss will be even more dramatic, 300 to

400. There are two explanations for that. The reason is last time the

seats were fought Labour war on a high after the omnishambles budget

and the project as we have had in recent weeks were focused on England

and have not taken into account that we have elections in Scotland and

Wales. Let me sound a note of caution. Parties do tend to embark

on expectation management. They say things will be really dreadful so

when they are merely dreadful it is a slightly rosier picture. Give me

some examples. I think Labour are braced for the loss of the iconic

Glasgow City Council to the SNP. That will capture headlines. But the

sense, it is a line in Glasgow City Council with the Holyrood and

Westminster elections. In itself very symbolic? Yes. The West

Midlands mayoral contest is a Labour heartland but the feeling is that is

on a knife edge and turnout is really low which will be very bad

for Labour. But there is the odd ray of sunshine. Andy Burnham should win

in Greater Manchester. His mate Steve Rotherham should win in

Liverpool and tomorrow night when we get the projected national share

from the local elections, I think what Labour will hope is that will

show a narrow gap between them and the Tories then we have seen

in the opinion polls. What have we been hearing from the Tories? I

think they're expecting gains of 50 to 80 in the local elections. If it

is more than that, they will be happy. If it is any more than that

they will be jumping for joy. They will be saying they did better than

expected when the seats were contested last round so little room

for improvement they will say. Thank you.

At the last election, pundits were caught out by the polls,

but there were clues that we could have caught.

A look at the seats where top Tories were campaigning might have

So, in an effort to learn from our mistakes, our policy editor

Chris Cook has been mapping the campaign so far.

Here is his unique analysis of what they will show.

The critical fight at this election remains, as it has done, for a

century, the battle between the Conservatives and Labour.

The parties have already started a flurry of campaigning

with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn crisscrossing Britain

to get their faces in local media.

So, what can we tell about the two parties from what they're up to?

We used to talking about swings, so a simple 5% swing from Labour to

the Tories would mean 43 more Conservative seats.

And a 4% swing from the Tories to Labour would mean

29 more Labour seats, making Labour the largest party

Because it's voters keep moving to the Tories.

So, we probably need something a bit more

On this graph, we've plotted all the Labour-Tory battle grounds.

Each dot is a constituency and we've arranged them

The furthest left dots are the safest Labour seats

from 2015 and the furthest right dots are the safest Tory seats.

The most marginal ones are the ones in the middle.

Now, looking vertically, the higher up dots are seats

It's got a 7,000 vote Labour lead over the Tories, which is safe.

But it's a place with 13,000 Ukip voters and that's a lot.

It's one of the seats where Ukip voters breaking Tory could break

In fact, let's draw a line in here on this graph.

All of the seats above this line, more than 60 of them,

are ones where, if the Ukip votes goes Tory, it would be

enough, to flip the seat to the Conservatives on their own.

So, you can see why it is strategically

helpful for Theresa May to take a very hard line on the EU.

Threats against Britain have been issued by

All of these acts have been deliberately timed to affect the

result of the general election that will take place on the 8th of June.

There's a huge reward for hoovering up Ukip votes.

Remember that when you look at these rosettes.

They mark constituencies where Theresa May has campaigned.

Now, a few stops in Tory seats, but most are deep

Note, though, she's chosen Labour seats where attracting

former Ukip voters can do most or all of the work of winning.

Jeremy Corbyn's campaign style is certainly very different.

These red rosettes marking Mr Corbyn's

recent stops are mostly in seats with relatively slender Tory leads.

It is possible Labour simply plans to do that in a few weeks' time.

Let's wait. The Tory campaign stops they were more revealing. They show

the plans to ride a wave of ex-Ukip is right into Labour's heartland.

Emmanuel Macron was widely regarded as having bested Marine Le Pen

in last night's vicious television Presidential debate

in which she called him a spoilt, cold-eyed smirking banker

and he branded her a hate-filled liar.

But after the venomous battle that lasted almost three hours,

a billet doux for Macron from the last American President,

whose flagship policy has taken a battering tonight.

a billet doux for Macron from the last American President.

I have admired the campaign that Emmanuel Macron has run.

He put forward a vision for the important role that

France plays in Europe and around the world.

And he is committed to a better future for the French people.

He appeals to people's hopes and not their fears.

Because of how important this election is, I also want you to know

that I am supporting Emmanuel Macron to lead you forward.

But does the fact that Barack Obama is rooting for him,

only reinforce the "elitist" tag, and demonstrate that this renegade

presidential candidate is really the Establishment man?

I'm joined from Paris Jean Pisoni Ferry who is co-ordinating Macron's

economic programme and whose political and personal heritage

is entwined with the development of the European Union and who has

been described as Macron's eminence grise.

Good evening. First of all, on that point, when Barack Obama intervened

in Brexit, it was counter-productive. Is the Obama

video not risky, because it looks like Macron, who claims not to be an

establishment candidate, very much is? Well, I would not regret

President Obama's short video, what he said is really genuine. He says

what Macron stands for. He stands for hope and not for fear, it is

exactly that, and President Obama have a strong image with the French

public overall. So definitely I would not regret.

I wonder what voters it might sway because how to explain that many

Melenchon or Fillon supporters would rather not vote than vote for

Macron? We are going through a realignment in French politics. This

is extremely impressive what we are seeing. We see that about 25% of the

voters chose candidates from established parties and 75% chose

candidates from his party were barely represented in Parliament. So

we are seeing something really new. We still have to understand what it

means. Definitely, there is a divide across, within the electorate,

between those who stand for more openness, who have hopes, who see

opportunities, and those who are more fearful of the revolution. That

is something we have seen elsewhere but we do hope it will turn

differently in the French case. You are such a key part of a Emmanuel

Macron's campaign and his plans for government, and I wonder if you

yourself are saying the divide is so huge, what can Macron do to bring

onside to 40% of French voters who are so far to the right? Macron is

going to, if he wins, he is going to win on the basis of those who in the

first round voted for him, plus those from the left and the right

who do not want at all Marine Le Pen to be the next president. Now, he

will have to implement an agenda of significant change, because the

underlying situation we are living is deeply unsatisfactory and this

election is an expression of the deep dissatisfaction of the fears of

a significant fraction of the French voters. What will happen? If he

wins, one of his first big jobs is having to deal with Brexit. He is

reported as saying Brexit is a crime, it is a crime for the UK to

leave and they will be facing servitude. A lot of heat has been in

this divorce bill now and I wonder what does Emmanuel Macron think the

UK should pay in that divorce? He is going to side with the 27. There

will be a gauche nation about Brexit, about its implications, the

terms -- there will be a negotiation. I just want to ask you,

do you think Emmanuel Macron's position is near the 60 billion or

the 100 billion we were hearing about last week? Annual Macron, I do

think he will defer significantly from the French position, and I

don't want to enter the detail at this stage. You were asking me about

the significance of the French vote and the agenda Emmanuel Macron will

put forward in France and I think he will start from there, because

primarily he will be elected to change the French situation and the

French economy and the social situation we are seeing. So I think

that will be his domestic focus. Now, he is relieved pro-European,

Europe is part of his agenda. He wants Europe to be part of the

solution and that is really something also quite different from

what we have seen in the UK, but also quite different from what we

have seen in France in the past, where the French government were

lukewarm about Europe. Thank you. The Screbrinica massacre in July

1995 was one of the most dreadful More than 8,000 Muslim

Bosniak boys and men were murdered by units

of the Bosnian Serb Army under Ratko Mladic who captured

the designated safe area supposedly under UN protection

and commited genocide. Only six men survived

the massacre and escaped. One of them continues to fight

for justice and a decade ago actually returned to live

in the town most associated Katie Razzall went to Srebrinica

for this special report into one man's battle to take on the Serb

deniers who say genocide We should warn you that

Katie Razall's film includes graphic scenes from the time, which some

viewers may find distressing. We didn't believe that we would be

killed because there are so many people and I couldn't believe

that they could kill all of us. In July 1995, Bosnian Serb soldiers

shot dead thousands of unarmed It was Europe's worst atrocity

since the Second World War. I had nightmares that

I didn't ever get rid of. But today, the genocide verdicts

of the International Court are being questioned by politicians

and the town's new mayor, even here, where the

massacres took place. Nejad Addic returned

to Srebrenica five years ago. -- Nejad Addic returned

to Srebrenica ten years ago. He and his wife Elvisa are bringing

up their three daughters in what became the Republic

of Srpska, the Bosnian Serb entity Nejad is one of it is believed only

six survivors of around 8,000 I had a deep need inside me to come

here, to show them that I survived. His return after the war

was a gesture of defiance against those who wanted

Muslims erased. But he says life is becoming

increasingly difficult. I worry, because of discourse

and the rhetoric I hear in Bosnia, We have a new indoctrinated

generation of children. Everywhere you have propaganda,

and because of that, my wife, During the war, Srebrenica

became a UN safe haven, packed with fleeing Muslim Bosnian

refugees, including Elvisa But the UN abandoned them in 1995

when Bosnian Serb forces The leader of the Bosnian Serb

forces, General Ratko Mladic, now on trial for genocide

in The Hague, Women and children like

Elvisa were bussed out. Nejad took us on the journey he made

back in 1995, then as a prisoner, crammed into a truck with dozens

of others, This is the place where the mass

execution took place. I could see the lines and lines,

rows and rows of dead bodies. I knew it was the end

really, that moment. They ordered us to lay down

and I just thought my mother would never know where I ended up,

how I finished, and... Then they started

fire and I was dying. I just could hear moans, moans

of other people who were wounded. It was so painful, I just

prayed to God to die. Then I noticed someone

was moving in front of me The pair escaped when the soldiers

went to collect more men to kill. Nejad was badly wounded

and in terrible pain. As day broke and they crawled

through the forest, the full scale and planning behind

the massacre became apparent. After the war, the international

effort to find and identify In amongst them, Nejad's

father and uncle. I'm know that my uncle,

his remains were found They wanted to hide it and rebury

them again and because of that The current president

of Republic of Srpska, doesn't accept the international

court verdicts Here, they celebrate

convicted war criminals, like the former president

Radovan Karadzic as heroes. The wartime general Ratko Mladic

is still on trial, but so far, six senior figures have been found

guilty of genocide When Radovan Karadzic's

second-in-command was released from prison a few years ago,

he was feted. No longer a predominantly

Muslim town, the scars of war are still visible

in Srebrenica today. Last year, the town elected

in new mayor who has promised It is the first time a Bosnian Serb

has filled the role since the war, but his views on the Srebrenica

massacre have caused alarm among some of the people

who have returned. Do you believe Radovan

Karadzic is a hero? Do you accept the judgment

of the International Court that Some argue the Balkan War

is a frozen conflict. That Republic of Srpska's ruling

politicians still want to set up the entirely separate Bosnian Serb

state they did not With international eyes focused

elsewhere, the president really With international eyes focused

elsewhere, the president regularly threatens a referendum on the entity

seceding from Bosnia-Herzegovina. His mayor in Srebrenica is not

averse to that idea. With the mood changing,

Nejad and Elvisa tell me they already know Bosnians who have

packed up and left. If you leave, who

will be the winner? In that case, the genocide

would pay off. Those who committed such horror,

they would be the winner. Every year, on the anniversary,

more men are buried in the vast memorial to the genocide

victims of Srebrenica. Sometimes, a bone fragment

is all that has been found. For 22 years, Nejad has carried

the burden of being one survivor Amongst the dead, the father

to whom he never got to say goodbye. This reminds me of the last

moment, when I last saw my

father in his house. I wondered, based on his

experiences, whether Nejad has a warning about where unchecked

nationalism can lead. Hatred, nationalistic

conversation can take us to war, Very often I, ask myself

where we are going now, because I fear very bad

things in Europe. And what of true reconciliation

here, where genocide is denied in the very place where

it is judged to have happened? Those who had their hands bloody,

if they come one day and ask for forgiveness,

I think it wouldn't be a problem For now though, the divisions

in a country apparently still so split along ethnic lines,

look almost as wide as ever. You can see a longer version of that

film on "Our World" on the BBC News Channel at 9:30 on Saturday

and Sunday night and, Now the part of the programme that

delivers a verbal punch. Viewsnight is designed

to get your blood up. Tonight, that task falls to writer

Afua Hirsh who has strong words Abolish faith schools,

they harm children. -- Abolish faith schools,

they harm integration. Britain has a problem

with integration. But instead of any serious,

long-term policies, The response has been confined to

contrived and patronising measures. The Duke of Edinburgh,

whose retirement from public duties was announced today,

had a traumatic early life. He was evacuated from Greece

in an orange box for a cot Perhaps that early resilience has

fuelled him through his eventful 96 years during which,

as consort, he has carried approximately 23,000 solo public

duties and courted a measure So what do we expect from brand

"monarchy" by way of duty and public service and has Prince Philip

genuinely delivered it? Roya Nikkhah is royal correspondent

at The Sunday Times and Shon Faye is a

writer and activist. First of all, do you think the

Royals are the kind of essence of what you think is public duty and

service? I think Prince Philip certainly is. This is a man for 70

years has dedicated his life to supporting a one in which is frankly

extraordinary service to the country. He has done it with

forthright humour but he has achieved an enormous amount in

public life for his charities which he has done quietly and not banged

the drum about. I think his steadfastness and commitment to the

monarchy is pretty extraordinary over 70 years. That point about

charities, he is patron of something like 780 charities. Those charities

clearly thought it was a benefit to them having his support? Yes, and I

think that is an important part of what the monarchy does in public

life. I suppose my query of that is we have come to accept the presence

of the monarchy as it depoliticised mascot for the nation and the

charitable sector. That allows us to depoliticised other issues like

austerity and some of the social issues. It can be very good to have

a royal attached to a cause but not to look at the underlying political

causes. But there are some courses that they -- to which he was

attached which are for the greater benefit of the nation? Yes, but

equally, his position in respect of that, when we talk about his

service, it is important to remember that his service, it is discussed on

the news as if it was given fully willingly, but there is a huge

amount of privilege which he received in return for that service.

The point about privilege is obviously that the Queen was born

into it but he wasn't, he had to come into it and I suppose in that

sense, he inherited by way of marriage that sense of privilege?

Yes, he inherited a sense of privilege but he also inherited

having to give up his career. This was a man in the 1950s, it was

generally assumed and believed he would have gone right to the top of

the Navy. How many men in the 1950s were willing to give that up for a

woman? He was actually born into privilege, but I do think we should

look at the Duke of Edinburgh and think of

him as an incredibly privileged man, he has led a privileged life but he

has also done an enormous amount of work. Things like the Duke of

Edinburgh's scheme which has helped young people right across the social

strata. Yes, I never got my bronze! You did not get your bronze, but the

fact that you know about it, was it something that was worth getting?

Yes, certainly and there are plenty of examples of that. The younger

royals speaking out about mental health recently. It should give us

pause for thought saying Prince Philip is a privileged man and has

worked hard all his life, there are plenty of people who have worked

hard at their entire lives and do sacrifice and work hard. For the

Royals, those sacrifices are elevated into a unique way in the

way we discuss them. That you could also say that lots of celebrities,

because they are good at football or modelling or whatever, you get a lot

of money and they are in a huge position of privilege, and they

didn't necessarily give back in the same way that you might regard

someone who has been doing it for 70 years has given back? I would say

the monarchy is a pretty unique institution that in this country it

is the product of a class system and has been falling over hundreds of

years, and it is also enriched by colonial spoils. We had a huge

empire and we are still in its final days. We do, but the issue with that

is, the public if they wanted to could probably get rid of the

monarchy but every year when the nation is polled they are

overwhelmingly in favour of keeping a monarchy. One also assumes that he

will be working behind the scenes with the Queen? There is no doubt he

will be working with every single day and supporting her still thank

you. What's it like to be the Labour

candidate in the general election when you think your leader

is a disaster, in a seat which has a proud history of building

nuclear powered submarines, when your leader is ambivalent

at best to nuclear? Barrow-in-Furness in Cumbria

was solidly Labour after the war until 1983, when Labour under

Michael Foot campaigned for unilateral nuclear

disarmament and lost the seat When Labour changed its policy,

it took the seat back, but what now for Barrow-in-Furness,

high up on the Tory target list? Filmmaker Nick Blakemore spent

the first week of the campaign A vote for Labour

is a vote for Corbyn I don't think he would be fit

to be Prime Minister. Even if it were possible

that it was going to happen. I want to be Labour candidate,

but I'm not prepared to accept even the theoretical possibility

that he will be Prime Minister. Because, one, it's not

going to happen, but, two, it wouldn't be right,

even if he did. I'm just really asking how

you're planning to vote in the general election,

how you're feeling I used to support Labour

but I don't know at the moment. My daughter's a single

parent and that. She doesn't get the support

that she should. So, I mean, she's working as well,

so it's really hard for her. How do we get people to vote

for you, when you are ..the elected leader,

forgive me, of the party, which I believe you represent

or have you gone independent? I don't want to be

against my party leader. He's got a reputation

of marching for CND, he's got a proud reputation

of being for peace and against war. The policies that have come

to the fore, under Corbyn are what, And, I feel, motivate

a lot of people. A business-as-usual election where

the candidate goes in and they, sort of, either say nice things

about the leader or they just try desperately not to mention him

on the doorstep and hope that other people don't bring him up

was just doomed to fail. I thought that was a good meeting,

actually, because lots And they were...

And party members in particular. There were people who weren't

happy about what I said There were actually also party

members who robustly agreed with it. But all of them in that meeting,

at the end, said, yes, they were going to vote for me

to vote Labour. So, actually, that is showing

a level of coming together. Theresa May has been very

smart and where she's been particularly smart,

she's letting people believe that she's going to deliver some big

Brexit iceberg I think she's going to

deliver an ice cube. Brexit will still mean Brexit,

but it'll be small enough to put They were nice enough,

polite enough, but pretty adamant, Alan, where are we going right

now, what's going on? As I understand it, a hotel

in Barrow has rather shamefully, pitifully closed a venue

because we were about to meet and hear from a lady

called Anne-Marie Walters. And, for whatever reason,

they've decided to pull it. So, we're going to see

if we can change their minds. She's a lady who has

a bit of a thing about... What do you call it?

Colin will know. I was just wondering if the event

has been cancelled this afternoon? The conference and events manager's

cancelled that for us. I don't know the

circumstances, I'm afraid. Can they legally do

that, do you think? Somebody's come a long way

to talk to us about stuff, I'm very sorry about that, gents,

but the event won't be taking place. That's a very good example

of what we're up against. So, I'm the candidate

for the Conservatives Can I ask, have you been

a Conservative voter all your life? I believe in, more than anything

else, a small state, people being able to get

on with their own lives without the burden of government

telling them what to do. I was just wondering, you know,

have you made your mind up I've just have deep-rooted

socialist background. I'm afraid I won't be voting

for the Conservatives. Everyone's in a tough position

because of the economic mess But actually, you can't get

into a decent position unless you've got a strong

and stable economy. How do you deliver efficiency

when ?200 million worth Well, I think you have

to look at where services You have to look at where

services can be shared. Let's make no bones about it,

we are still in a difficult financial situation across the UK,

but in Cumbria, as well. You know, if FGM stood

for Female Gob Manipulation I could probably be talked into it,

but it doesn't. That was a little joke,

then, you missed it! Firstly, I'd just like to thank

the Lisdoonie Hotel for saving I'd also like to congratulate

Mr Alan Piper for being selected unanimously to stand for Ukip

for the very first time... I've been called every far right

fascist, racist under the sun, If we don't really do something

about FGM now, we never will. I don't think that Muslims' opinions

on things are the only Now, we're not going to cure Sharia

in seven weeks, I don't disagree at all with what you're

saying about it. Because we've got to convince

the electorate in this And if you've got somebody

who is not solid Brexit, There's lots of claims about "We're

all in it together" and "we're all citizens" and "we're all working

together", but some of us are in And that's how people

feel in Barrow. My name's Loraine Birchall, I'm

the Liberal Democrat candidate... I don't feel this area

should be forgotten. That's someone we would hope to work

with literature and convince him I feel that we need to put up

a candidate to give people in this This is the worst period

for so many people. The number of people

using food banks, the number Barrow, in particular, is dependent

on BAE as a source of employment. And people are saying they wouldn't

vote green, because the greens We see the potential for something

amazing to happen at the shipyard, we just don't happen to believe that

building weapons The thing is, if Labour get in,

can you stop Trident? That is why I've decided

to be honest about this. What I think is not in the interest

of areas like here and areas right across the North of England

and beyond, is to have this sort of Tory whitewash,

where there are no Labour voices So that is the message we're trying

to get across on the doorstep. I don't know if it's

going to work yet. We will have all the big political

results tomorrow night. Until then, good night.

Hello. There will be a bit of a frost first thing in rural parts of