11/05/2017 Newsnight


11/05/2017

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Emily Maitlis.


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Transcript


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Our manifesto will be an offer and we believe the policies

:00:00.:00:14.

So what will voters make of this offer from Jeremy Corbyn?

:00:15.:00:19.

Tonight, we analyse in full the politics, the policy

:00:20.:00:27.

and the reaction to the leaked manifesto, as we

:00:28.:00:29.

It has major spending implications for the country.

:00:30.:00:36.

The voters want to see a bigger state.

:00:37.:00:40.

It's not as if - from what we've seen, at any rate -

:00:41.:00:43.

that they've come up with things that people don't want.

:00:44.:00:45.

The problem is, they've come up with everything

:00:46.:00:47.

Many of the ideas have a popular ring on the doorstep.

:00:48.:00:51.

Will voters trust those bearing the message?

:00:52.:00:53.

David Grossman has been gauging reaction.

:00:54.:00:55.

But I'm loathe to say what I really think at the minute.

:00:56.:01:03.

And where does this manifesto fit into the political firmament?

:01:04.:01:09.

Our panel is raring to go, with our left-right blackboard.

:01:10.:01:21.

It was not so long ago we moaned about all political parties looking

:01:22.:01:26.

Failure to offer proper choice to the voter,

:01:27.:01:31.

failure to bring anything new to the table.

:01:32.:01:32.

Well, no-one looking at Labour's manifesto -

:01:33.:01:34.

in whatever form it finally emerges - can parrot that line now.

:01:35.:01:38.

If the leaked draft remains true to character, then this

:01:39.:01:41.

is a bold political treatise, and one we're exploring

:01:42.:01:43.

It offers a role for the state, perhaps not seen since the post-war

:01:44.:01:48.

It seeks bigger national services for both health and education,

:01:49.:01:57.

on top of the renationalisation of some rail and energy firms.

:01:58.:02:00.

You can call it backward looking, if the talk of unions

:02:01.:02:02.

and a new "Department for Labour" makes you think of the 1970s.

:02:03.:02:05.

You can call it forward looking, if you think it speaks

:02:06.:02:08.

to a generation emerging from Britain's worst

:02:09.:02:10.

It is - in Jeremy Corbyn's words - 'a promise to transform

:02:11.:02:14.

And it involves huge quantities of new spending, not yet costed.

:02:15.:02:18.

Tonight, we will analyse the politics, the policies

:02:19.:02:20.

Nick Watt, our political editor, is here now.

:02:21.:02:26.

We know that we have not got the costings in what we know today, but

:02:27.:02:34.

did this Satan more in a meeting about whether leagues came from?

:02:35.:02:38.

Jeremy Corbyn is furious with the leak and he has commissioned an

:02:39.:02:41.

independent Commission to find out what happened and his allies believe

:02:42.:02:47.

the moderates, the people in the labour movement to tried and failed

:02:48.:02:50.

to dislodge him last year, that they were behind the leak. They regard

:02:51.:02:56.

this as a deeply hostile act to ensure that the manifesto was

:02:57.:03:00.

betrayed as it was on the front page of the Daily Telegraph today as a

:03:01.:03:05.

throwback to the 1970s. What these allies of Corbyn are saying, they

:03:06.:03:09.

think the moderates want this to be seen as a new version of the 1983

:03:10.:03:13.

manifesto, so that would ensure a heavy defeat for Labour and they

:03:14.:03:16.

would be able to come after him again. One Corbyn allies said they

:03:17.:03:23.

are utterly confident the manifesto is not like 1983 and it is a punter

:03:24.:03:28.

friendly. There are compromises but I was told if a socialist campaign

:03:29.:03:33.

group of Labour MPs have persuaded the Ed Miliband to do this last

:03:34.:03:37.

time, they would have been ecstatic. Any word from the moderates tonight?

:03:38.:03:41.

Perish the thought they would have reached this manifesto, of course!

:03:42.:03:46.

Some believe this manifesto is about turning out to the core Labour vote

:03:47.:03:50.

on June 8th so Jeremy Corbyn does not suffer a heavy defeat and he can

:03:51.:03:56.

stay on as Labour leader. I was told by one senior figure on the

:03:57.:04:01.

so-called moderate side today that John McDonnell faced questioning

:04:02.:04:05.

today over what was described as the vast spending commitments in this

:04:06.:04:10.

manifesto, and he did say, it is fully costed and that will be

:04:11.:04:14.

published next week. But then a senior Labour figure said this to

:04:15.:04:19.

me, this manifesto, will never be implemented, so it is all rather

:04:20.:04:24.

academic. So in a way, today really ended up being the unofficial launch

:04:25.:04:26.

of the Labour manifesto. Prime Minister Corbyn? It has been a

:04:27.:04:45.

bruising journey... For a manifesto he believes should provide the route

:04:46.:04:52.

into Number 10. Today was meant to be a relatively low-key event. But

:04:53.:04:57.

the traditional pre-election clause five meeting to approve the Labour

:04:58.:05:01.

manifesto turned into a bit of a media circus after draft versions

:05:02.:05:08.

will eat. If Jeremy Corbyn could wave a magic wand, he would not be

:05:09.:05:12.

producing this exact document, it commits a future Labour government

:05:13.:05:16.

to renewing Trident nuclear deterrent after he failed to change

:05:17.:05:20.

party policy, but the leaked versions do encapsulate his key

:05:21.:05:25.

beliefs about the need for a massive programme of public investment, the

:05:26.:05:28.

gradual nationalisation of Hezbollah but railways and other state

:05:29.:05:34.

intervention. -- Hezbollah but railways. Labour were forced to

:05:35.:05:39.

finalise the manifesto at short notice but this did not have the

:05:40.:05:44.

feel of something scribble out on the back of a packet. The details

:05:45.:05:48.

will be set out to you including the costings for the pledges and

:05:49.:05:54.

promises that we make. Chief strategist have been working on the

:05:55.:05:58.

document since Jeremy Corbyn's election last year, after becoming

:05:59.:06:01.

convinced the Prime Minister would go to the polls. One early

:06:02.:06:07.

supporter, he became disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn, was impressed. I

:06:08.:06:12.

do think the manifesto in terms of its key policies and the vision,

:06:13.:06:16.

because people generally do not vote on individual policies, a vision

:06:17.:06:22.

about realising this country's great potential, not being held back

:06:23.:06:26.

because of vested interests and investing in public services and the

:06:27.:06:29.

economy, if that cuts through, Labour had a chance to turn this

:06:30.:06:34.

around. One veteran of the Labour elections agrees this will appeal on

:06:35.:06:38.

the doorsteps, but there is a weakness. It is an extraordinary

:06:39.:06:42.

document from what we have seen, it has got everything in it. A

:06:43.:06:46.

cornucopia of ideas, everything everybody said the focus group they

:06:47.:06:49.

would like the Government to do for them. The problem is, that is kind

:06:50.:06:54.

of not how it works with election pledges, that does not give you

:06:55.:06:58.

credibility. Take the and energy prices, Ed Miliband introduced it

:06:59.:07:02.

and promised it and they looked at him and did not believe he would

:07:03.:07:05.

deliver. The so-called Labour moderates had feared the Corbyn team

:07:06.:07:11.

would produce a 21st-century version of the party's 1983 manifesto,

:07:12.:07:17.

famously dubbed the longest suicide note in history. One veteran of

:07:18.:07:21.

Labour's most recent election loss believes this comparison is only

:07:22.:07:26.

partially fair. You see quite a lot of material in this manifesto

:07:27.:07:31.

familiar to people from the 2015 manifesto. I see quite a lot in this

:07:32.:07:36.

manifesto which will be familiar for people who watched the 1983 general

:07:37.:07:41.

election as we were heading to disaster. I think the truth the

:07:42.:07:45.

manifesto and for a general election campaign is we never know what it

:07:46.:07:50.

means until afterwards. The country will soon be sizing up the choice

:07:51.:07:53.

between Labour and its vision of public investment and Theresa May

:07:54.:07:58.

and have gained strong and stable leadership. Corbyn supporters

:07:59.:08:03.

believe they are on stronger ground. David Cameron promised in the 2015

:08:04.:08:09.

election stability against the chaos of Ed Miliband, we have not had a

:08:10.:08:12.

more chaotic period since World War II in British history so they have

:08:13.:08:19.

not quite delivered on that. In four weeks' time, Britain could have a

:08:20.:08:23.

Prime Minister who for 30 years was shunned by his own party as a

:08:24.:08:27.

marginal figure on the left. We now have a chance to decide whether

:08:28.:08:32.

Jeremy Corbyn's vision, with the odd revision, should entitle him to take

:08:33.:08:33.

his place in Number 10. Barry Gardiner, who was in that

:08:34.:08:38.

meeting, joins me now. The IFS says this manifesto

:08:39.:08:41.

is about the state getting deeply involved in much more of the private

:08:42.:08:48.

sector than it has been since 1970s, No, I don't think so at all. What we

:08:49.:09:04.

are doing, we are trying to free people of from the things that are

:09:05.:09:08.

holding them back. If you look at a young couple today, they cannot get

:09:09.:09:13.

even a deposit for a rented accommodation, they cannot get a

:09:14.:09:16.

mortgage, they cannot start a family. And they are saying, why? We

:09:17.:09:22.

both have jobs, we both work, and we cannot do the things our parents

:09:23.:09:26.

easily could have done at that age. Teachers feel they are not able to

:09:27.:09:30.

be doing in schools and teaching children the way they would want.

:09:31.:09:35.

But you would not be against the state getting bigger to help? It is

:09:36.:09:40.

not about the state, it is bringing people up and letting them do the

:09:41.:09:43.

things they can do and they should be doing, innovation. It was so

:09:44.:09:50.

funny when you had the peace at the very beginning. The woman was almost

:09:51.:09:55.

criticising this manifesto. The trouble is, this offers people

:09:56.:10:01.

everything. This is IFS reading your manifesto it so far, the state

:10:02.:10:05.

getting deeply involved in much more of the private sector in a way it

:10:06.:10:09.

has not since the 1970s and perhaps the 1940s, that is wrong, we will

:10:10.:10:13.

see a smaller state? Where will we be? What we are trying to do is

:10:14.:10:19.

trying to enable people to get on with their lives and feel that they

:10:20.:10:24.

are properly rewarded for doing the things that they just simply wants

:10:25.:10:31.

to do. So is the state going to be bigger, smaller, the same? Very

:10:32.:10:35.

simple question. The state will regulate in terms of taxation and

:10:36.:10:38.

you have seen what the Conservatives have said, they will not give a

:10:39.:10:43.

promised on VAT. We talk about nationalisation and intervention,

:10:44.:10:47.

lots of ways he will spend more on infrastructure, you talk about a

:10:48.:10:51.

national education service and National Health Service, so tell us

:10:52.:10:55.

the state will get bigger and we are proud of it! Is it not wonderful we

:10:56.:10:59.

are talking about putting half eight trillion pounds... White do you seem

:11:00.:11:06.

to be embarrassed to be backing... I am not embarrassed, you are trying

:11:07.:11:10.

to put me into a form of words and I do not want the form of words, we

:11:11.:11:15.

should talk about the substance. You are talking semantics, and want to

:11:16.:11:18.

talk about the substance. The substance that says we are going to

:11:19.:11:23.

do it across three, not just eight second Crossrail in London, from the

:11:24.:11:27.

West Coast to the East coast of the North of England. That is big ideas.

:11:28.:11:32.

Is this a socialist manifesto and of the country votes for your Labour

:11:33.:11:38.

government, do we become a socialist country, a Social Democrat country?

:11:39.:11:42.

You are obsessed with labels, let's talk about the issue. There is a

:11:43.:11:46.

philosophy here from a man that has believed the same things for three

:11:47.:11:52.

decades. It is not just from a man, it is from today, there were 60

:11:53.:11:56.

people in that room. Ed Miliband said he was a socialist and proud,

:11:57.:12:01.

are you a socialist, is this a socialist manifesto? The Labour

:12:02.:12:04.

Party has always been a socialist Democratic party and that is where I

:12:05.:12:08.

will always stand, but it is not about me and names, it is ensuring

:12:09.:12:13.

the people who feel they are held back in this country... Shall start

:12:14.:12:19.

centres are closing, they have taken ?4.6 million out of social care

:12:20.:12:21.

because the health service, the figures today, 2.5 million people

:12:22.:12:27.

now waiting more than four hours to get into an Accident and Emergency.

:12:28.:12:32.

These are the issues. We are saying we have solutions to this and the

:12:33.:12:36.

lady said it is what everybody wants. You are right, big efforts to

:12:37.:12:40.

increase spending on social care and the NHS and education we heard from

:12:41.:12:45.

Jeremy Corbyn yesterday. Taking back the franchises on the railways. One

:12:46.:12:51.

area that will appeal to voters is immigration. Their rules and

:12:52.:12:53.

reasonable management of immigration. There is not an awful

:12:54.:12:59.

lot in the pages we have seen so far about the immigration policy. We

:13:00.:13:02.

know you do not like the Theresa May idea of tens of thousands as a, is

:13:03.:13:09.

there any? Theresa May does not like the tens of thousands idea because

:13:10.:13:12.

she tried to get down to tens of thousands and she promised to when

:13:13.:13:17.

she was Home Secretary and it is now 270,000. She did not do very well

:13:18.:13:21.

here. That was when she was Home Secretary. You have said do not

:13:22.:13:28.

bother with the cap? No, let me be clear, we will put our economic

:13:29.:13:31.

policy before our immigration policy, and we will make sure we

:13:32.:13:35.

have immigration into this country that is beneficial to our economy,

:13:36.:13:40.

that creates jobs analysis ID, that allows us to be a prosperous and

:13:41.:13:44.

innovative society where we are growing our economy. That is the

:13:45.:13:50.

right way to do it. She is subordinating the economic policy to

:13:51.:13:53.

immigration control. Am a Labour voter, I care about immigration and

:13:54.:13:59.

I want to know, what that means in concrete terms and you say it is

:14:00.:14:03.

270,000, would you be happy to see that go up? Let me be very clear, at

:14:04.:14:07.

the moment for the rest of the world, we have immigration controls.

:14:08.:14:16.

Different types of user. That is what we have. They have those

:14:17.:14:20.

controls in place. And talk to me broadly, would you be happy if it

:14:21.:14:26.

went up? Immigration numbers will always go both down and up according

:14:27.:14:30.

to the needs of the economy. If they go up to half a million, you are

:14:31.:14:35.

relaxed? If it is beneficial to our economy and it provides jobs and

:14:36.:14:38.

growth in this country, and if that jobs and growth is distributed

:14:39.:14:44.

fairly through the system, because that has been a problem with the way

:14:45.:14:49.

society is run, it has not been distributed fairly through the

:14:50.:14:49.

system. It could go up to one million and

:14:50.:14:57.

you would say, that's fine, we are relaxed because it is benefiting the

:14:58.:15:01.

economy? It is silly trying to trap me into a number. It is not a trap.

:15:02.:15:06.

You are talking to voters for whom immigration is literally the central

:15:07.:15:11.

issue, it is what drove many people to vote for Brexit... Is it? Do you

:15:12.:15:15.

not think their job is the central issue, they are not in a zero hour

:15:16.:15:19.

contract and they can't afford to even set up a home or start a

:15:20.:15:26.

family, is that not the central issue. Labour's message is that

:15:27.:15:31.

immigration is not a priority. Again, you are trying to trap me

:15:32.:15:35.

into a form of words. It is not about it not being a priority or not

:15:36.:15:39.

the number one priority, we are saying the key thing in our society

:15:40.:15:44.

is to have a fair society, that is why we are talking about their

:15:45.:15:47.

management and control about immigration. There is nothing in

:15:48.:15:51.

here about free movement. Of course not. Free movement, when we leave

:15:52.:15:55.

the European Union, and we accept we are leaving the EU, the free

:15:56.:16:03.

movement of people goes. The free movement only exists within the

:16:04.:16:05.

internal market and we are not going to be in the internal market. And

:16:06.:16:08.

you are accepting that if a Labour government is in power free movement

:16:09.:16:13.

world of? We have already said that! You are behind the times. -- free

:16:14.:16:19.

movement of people would go. That is not in your manifesto, why don't you

:16:20.:16:23.

say it? Forgive me, you have seen a leaked draft of a manifesto, you

:16:24.:16:29.

haven't seen before manifesto. Is it in the 41? You will see on Tuesday.

:16:30.:16:34.

Keir Starmer has been saying for weeks that the Labour Party accepts

:16:35.:16:38.

that we are leaving the EU, and as we are leaving we are no longer

:16:39.:16:42.

going to be a member of the EU, and therefore free movement of peoples

:16:43.:16:46.

to because it is free movement within the internal market. That is

:16:47.:16:52.

not actually in the draft. Let's go to be exciting things about this

:16:53.:16:57.

manifesto, let's talk about the way we have a vision for society about

:16:58.:17:02.

innovation, a vision for society creating a low carbon economy, low

:17:03.:17:06.

carbon future, doing all of the things for the environment, making

:17:07.:17:09.

sure that we protect the environment in the way that this Government

:17:10.:17:13.

wants to deregulate it. This is a wonderful list of policies, there is

:17:14.:17:18.

a something of everyone, it is a catalogue of delightful things, and

:17:19.:17:22.

yet we have this Mirror poll of people you are pursue Mowgli quite

:17:23.:17:25.

friendly towards. On the back of this they are saying that

:17:26.:17:29.

fundamentally -- people you are presumably quite friendly towards.

:17:30.:17:32.

They are saying there is no confidence in the capability of the

:17:33.:17:37.

leadership to deliver this. Let me be absolutely clear, on Tuesday next

:17:38.:17:41.

week when we launched this manifesto, every single element of

:17:42.:17:46.

this manifesto will be costed, absolutely clearly, how much it's

:17:47.:17:57.

going to cost and where that money is coming from. So we are absolutely

:17:58.:18:00.

clear that we can deliver all the things that we are promising to do.

:18:01.:18:03.

Even though a week ago today you were losing 500 councillors in the

:18:04.:18:05.

local actions, you were losing in the south valleys of Wales. What has

:18:06.:18:08.

that got to do with money? I don't talk about money, I talked about

:18:09.:18:12.

credibility in your party to deliver this. Surely you have already been

:18:13.:18:15.

to the electorate wants this month and they don't team to believe that

:18:16.:18:20.

you are the party that is capable of delivering? You think we have lost

:18:21.:18:25.

this election before the vote has counted, I don't. I believe this is

:18:26.:18:29.

a transformative manifesto, I believe what your introduction said,

:18:30.:18:32.

this is telling people that Labour will deliver all of the things that

:18:33.:18:38.

they genuinely want, or they -- all the things that have been holding

:18:39.:18:43.

them back will be taken away, there will be a redress of the

:18:44.:18:45.

inequalities in this country, that is the way that people can move from

:18:46.:18:50.

what they thought about local elections in rural areas to what's

:18:51.:18:55.

going to happen Won Jun Lee eight. Because we have policies. -- on June

:18:56.:19:00.

88. The Conservative Party will not give you a single policy. They have

:19:01.:19:04.

kept their minister is quiet the whole time. Will areas like Glasgow

:19:05.:19:09.

decide? We have the policies to take Britain forward, they don't. Thank

:19:10.:19:10.

you, Barry Gardiner. So, will this emerge

:19:11.:19:15.

as the manifesto Jeremy Corbyn has How radical will it

:19:16.:19:18.

look in practice? Perhaps the standout statement

:19:19.:19:21.

is the unashamed commitment to some higher taxes

:19:22.:19:23.

and greater public spending - of politicians on all sides have

:19:24.:19:25.

shied away from saying out loud. We know little of the costing

:19:26.:19:29.

details of the commitment - We have been told it has already

:19:30.:19:32.

been sorted out. But what would Corbyn's

:19:33.:19:36.

Britain look like? Here's our policy

:19:37.:19:38.

editor, Chris Cook. The leaked Labour manifesto has

:19:39.:19:39.

certainly proved to be distinctive. Each newspaper has

:19:40.:19:42.

found something to say. Not least because the

:19:43.:19:43.

document promises a lot From what we can tell,

:19:44.:19:45.

Labour are planning a substantial increase in tax, possibly an even

:19:46.:20:07.

bigger increase in spending. But they do have a rule on debt -

:20:08.:20:10.

it says it has to fall as a share of national income over

:20:11.:20:20.

the parliament, and it's possible that even with their additional

:20:21.:20:22.

borrowing, they'd be on course will try to make the case,

:20:23.:20:26.

as they always do, that What Labour's political opponents

:20:27.:20:34.

will be doing is going through it, looking for expensive things,

:20:35.:20:37.

and trying to kind of come up with a grand total for how much

:20:38.:20:40.

the Labour platform costs, to try to undermine its credibility,

:20:41.:20:43.

so that people can't go, actually, I quite like that idea,

:20:44.:20:47.

because the truth is But manifestos aren't

:20:48.:20:49.

bean-counting exercises, And this one focuses on a large

:20:50.:20:54.

part on the gig economy. Labour wants to raise

:20:55.:20:57.

employment standards through higher minimum wages

:20:58.:20:59.

and so-called sectoral bargaining. Sectoral bargaining would really

:21:00.:21:06.

help workers in low-paid industries like care,

:21:07.:21:09.

hospitality and logistics. But it would help good

:21:10.:21:11.

employers too, and stop them And it's very simple -

:21:12.:21:14.

it's about setting a framework a framework agreement -

:21:15.:21:19.

employers and unions and setting minimum

:21:20.:21:21.

standards for pay, skills It's still the case, even today,

:21:22.:21:24.

that your public services are by and large run

:21:25.:21:28.

by public sector workers. But it's also true that in recent

:21:29.:21:30.

decades policymakers have got more relaxed about the idea that,

:21:31.:21:33.

if the public sector can't offer the service they want

:21:34.:21:36.

at a price they like, they'll go to the private

:21:37.:21:38.

sector instead. And this draft manifesto proposes

:21:39.:21:42.

changing direction on that front. Specifically, it suggests ending

:21:43.:21:46.

the franchising of rail services, and proposes reversing

:21:47.:21:54.

the involvement of the private The manifesto also proposes

:21:55.:21:56.

changes for companies And proposes extensions

:21:57.:21:59.

of the role of the state. I'll tell you this, I wouldn't be

:22:00.:22:17.

sorry if it was a 60% tax... But this is all a long way

:22:18.:22:22.

to the right of where Mr Corbyn used There's no wider

:22:23.:22:26.

nationalisation plan. How, then, have some of Mr Corbyn's

:22:27.:22:28.

old friends taken it? Back in 1993 I was a young

:22:29.:22:48.

Bennite foot soldier, very taken on the idea

:22:49.:22:52.

of a fundamental reverse shift in the balance of power

:22:53.:22:54.

towards working people We were talking about

:22:55.:22:56.

policies such as a planned nationalisation of one key company

:22:57.:23:03.

in every economic sector. Clearly what we've got today

:23:04.:23:09.

is nothing like that. But Britain is a very

:23:10.:23:11.

different country. This is very much the right package

:23:12.:23:13.

for Britain in 2017. For left stalwarts, it's a step

:23:14.:23:16.

in the right direction. And some of their ambitions

:23:17.:23:18.

about the role of the state have As when Margaret Thatcher

:23:19.:23:21.

said they would. 3.5 years ago, defenders

:23:22.:23:24.

of the status quo tried to brand How absurd it will seem in a few

:23:25.:23:27.

years' time that the state ran Pickfords removals

:23:28.:23:35.

and Gleneagles hotels. So it's not a 1970s Labour left

:23:36.:23:45.

prospectus - this isn't 1983. But you probably won't be able

:23:46.:23:48.

to tell that from the attacks So, does this manifesto tell us

:23:49.:23:51.

the age of austerity is dead Joining us now - Ann Pettifer,

:23:52.:23:55.

Keynesian economist. And John Peet, Political Editor

:23:56.:23:59.

at The Economist. It does seem interesting this time

:24:00.:24:07.

around, it is not just Labour, nobody is really talking about

:24:08.:24:11.

posterity, debt or the deficit. Have we just sort of shelf that now --

:24:12.:24:17.

austerity. Yes, it didn't work. Economists told politicians but all

:24:18.:24:20.

they had to do was cut spending and the public debt would fall. The

:24:21.:24:25.

public debt has doubled we stayed high. The politicians are now both

:24:26.:24:31.

confused and embarrassed. -- has stubbornly stayed high. We are in

:24:32.:24:34.

limbo, not knowing which way to turn. I hope people have finally

:24:35.:24:39.

realised that actually you don't pay for public services from taxation,

:24:40.:24:44.

and governments have never paid for public services from taxation, they

:24:45.:24:48.

loan finance. You loan finance to pay the public service. There was a

:24:49.:24:52.

certain moral high ground but all people were saying, don't pass that

:24:53.:24:56.

on to your grandchildren, don't saddle the Next Generation, but now

:24:57.:24:59.

we have? We have saddled future generations with a lot of debt. It

:25:00.:25:09.

has quietly gone out of the window, there two reasons. Brexit will be

:25:10.:25:11.

the overwhelming issue of the next Government, whoever it is. The

:25:12.:25:13.

deficit has come down quite substantially. Even in this

:25:14.:25:16.

manifesto, John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor, is insisting that

:25:17.:25:19.

everything is carefully costed and there is a promise they will try to

:25:20.:25:22.

balance the current budget within five years. They are at least in

:25:23.:25:26.

their language still talking about reducing the budget deficit and not

:25:27.:25:32.

adding to the public debt. In this sense, it is an extraordinarily

:25:33.:25:35.

conventional politician, you know, he is. And the Labour Party, the

:25:36.:25:40.

Labour governments have been far more fiscally Conservative than the

:25:41.:25:44.

Conservative governments. I'm not sure I agree with that. Neither

:25:45.:25:48.

party seems nearly as scared of nationalisation this time around,

:25:49.:25:52.

whether it is talk of the railways, Royal Mail, or in Theresa May's

:25:53.:25:56.

case, a cap on energy fees. There is intervention either side now, right?

:25:57.:26:01.

We have had the wrist massive state intervention in our economy in our

:26:02.:26:05.

history. We found 1000 billion pounds to bailout the banking system

:26:06.:26:09.

overnight. That was a state intervention. The state is currently

:26:10.:26:18.

backing all of the world's big banks, with government guarantees,

:26:19.:26:20.

with easy money at low interest rates. I wonder if Labour has read

:26:21.:26:23.

the mood of the nation right. Actually we are prepared for more

:26:24.:26:25.

state intervention, certainly the new generation want more. Write

:26:26.:26:30.

there are certainly areas where nobody can object to the principle,

:26:31.:26:35.

the state-owned railway. This has come up before. I do think the

:26:36.:26:39.

general direction of this manifesto, and sometimes I have to say the

:26:40.:26:42.

general direction of the Tory government and the Mrs May, has been

:26:43.:26:47.

one in which they talk up an industrial strategy and more

:26:48.:26:50.

intervention in the labour market, this manifesto is replacing 20 new

:26:51.:26:55.

workers' rights, it is suggesting we move British labour Lord Ahmad give

:26:56.:26:58.

more by continental European law, in which it is harder to fire people --

:26:59.:27:04.

British labour law more like Continental. Individual parts of

:27:05.:27:11.

this will be very popular, the rail will be popular, it sounds popular

:27:12.:27:16.

to say, let's get rid of zero hours contracts. But the lesson that we

:27:17.:27:21.

did learn in the 60s, 70s and 80s is that excessive state ownership can

:27:22.:27:25.

be bad for the economy and excessive regulation of the labour market,

:27:26.:27:29.

which we have seen in continental Europe, can ride up unemployment.

:27:30.:27:33.

This is not a state market issue. If the economy were thriving and the

:27:34.:27:38.

banks were servants of the economy and not masters of the economy, if

:27:39.:27:42.

the finance sector hadn't wrecked the economy, the private sector

:27:43.:27:45.

would be very much bigger than a share of the whole economy. What

:27:46.:27:48.

happens when the private sector shrinks, as it has done over the

:27:49.:27:52.

last ten years, not recovered, is that the state becomes a bigger part

:27:53.:27:55.

of the cake. The point that all politicians should take on board is

:27:56.:27:59.

that to make the cake bigger should be the key aim. Because of how thick

:28:00.:28:05.

the IFS is, the fixation on this part of the economy,... When you are

:28:06.:28:14.

talking about rising Corporation Tax levels, you know, the implication

:28:15.:28:17.

blog determines you are going to make it possibly less attractive at

:28:18.:28:21.

a time of Brexit for people to come in. There is no correlation between

:28:22.:28:25.

rising Corporation Tax and increased or lower investment. In fact, we

:28:26.:28:31.

have a really big problem with very low investment by our... I wouldn't

:28:32.:28:36.

necessarily agree. The reason why many countries have cut Corporation

:28:37.:28:41.

Tax rate is because it is a good way of attracting foreign investment,

:28:42.:28:43.

and it has worked in this country, we have had high foreign investment.

:28:44.:28:47.

It is a more general thing, if you are going to use a system where you

:28:48.:28:52.

say, we are going to regulate the amount of pay that companies

:28:53.:28:55.

campaign and we are going to introduce requirements in companies,

:28:56.:28:59.

you are interfering in the marketplace. Mrs May is trying to do

:29:00.:29:04.

that, like all politicians you realise the public are very unhappy

:29:05.:29:07.

with the 1% running away with all of the gains from this crisis and the

:29:08.:29:10.

rest of us having to carry the burden, and that is the political

:29:11.:29:14.

reality. A bigger role for the state is not going to produce a better

:29:15.:29:19.

economy. But it saved the banks. I'll see you in the Green room later

:29:20.:29:21.

and we can on! Thank you. Jeremy Corbyn promised today

:29:22.:29:24.

the manifesto contained policies And perhaps it's hard

:29:25.:29:26.

to argue with the sound Extra funding for the NHS,

:29:27.:29:30.

financial provision for social care, equal rights for all workers

:29:31.:29:33.

and free childcare. But of course, there's

:29:34.:29:35.

a cost to all this first, and an implementation

:29:36.:29:38.

of it all after. So what do voters make of what's

:29:39.:29:39.

on offer, and do they believe Jereym Corbyn is the man they trust

:29:40.:29:42.

to deliver it? Although Jeremy Corbyn didn't

:29:43.:29:45.

officially set out his stall today, we got some pretty strong

:29:46.:29:52.

indications of what he and his Renationalising rail

:29:53.:29:55.

and Royal Mail services, Increasing the minimum wage,

:29:56.:29:57.

as well as abolishing tuition fees. More cash for the NHS and more

:29:58.:30:11.

cash for social care, According to polling,

:30:12.:30:14.

all of them get pretty strong It's places like this, Watford,

:30:15.:30:19.

that Jeremy Corbyn and Labour need their manifesto

:30:20.:30:25.

to have maximum impact. It was Labour until 2010, when it

:30:26.:30:26.

went over to the Conservatives. But if Jeremy Corbyn wants

:30:27.:30:35.

to be Prime Minister, he more or less has to retake

:30:36.:30:37.

seats like this. Do those sorts of policies

:30:38.:30:40.

sound attractive to you? I mean, I've got an 18-year-old

:30:41.:30:42.

who's thinking of going to university, so the fee

:30:43.:30:50.

element is brilliant. Utilities, as a parent as well,

:30:51.:30:52.

we have to look at bills and stuff. I mean, I used to travel to London

:30:53.:30:56.

as well and it's a nightmare. If they had those policies,

:30:57.:31:00.

I would vote for them. And that would be enough

:31:01.:31:02.

to change your mind? At the moment, you know,

:31:03.:31:06.

who do I vote for? I worked for the railway for 32

:31:07.:31:11.

years, so I'd definitely like to see Would you vote for a party that

:31:12.:31:15.

gave you those policies, But I'm loathe to say what I really

:31:16.:31:19.

think at the minute. Theresa May has got some charisma,

:31:20.:31:27.

where you feel like if she says she's going to do something,

:31:28.:31:32.

that she will do it. Although I'm a great

:31:33.:31:35.

believer in Labour policy, Although by no means

:31:36.:31:40.

a scientific survey, the attitudes we found in Watford

:31:41.:31:49.

are backed up by polling, about how people decide

:31:50.:31:52.

who to vote for. For a lot of people,

:31:53.:31:54.

it's not about specific policies. So a lot of people want education

:31:55.:31:59.

in this country to improve, but they won't really be interested

:32:00.:32:03.

in how the parties go about that. A lot of people want the health

:32:04.:32:08.

service to get better, but the minutiae of the detail

:32:09.:32:12.

about health service policy And they want a strong

:32:13.:32:15.

economy that is growing, but they are not really interested

:32:16.:32:19.

in how the parties go about that. And so it comes down

:32:20.:32:22.

to who they trust, who they think can be effective, and who they think

:32:23.:32:25.

can be a strong leader, and that is where Labour is behind

:32:26.:32:28.

at the moment and needs to improve. Although of course important,

:32:29.:32:31.

manifestos on their own, it seems, The temptation is always to find

:32:32.:32:34.

a name for a political philosophy. Are we looking at a Bennite vision,

:32:35.:32:38.

the ghost of Kinnock, It is irrepressible -

:32:39.:32:40.

the urge to box something up, place it, describe it

:32:41.:32:44.

with what you know? So instead of fighting

:32:45.:32:45.

it, we gave in to it. We've come up with this - our grid -

:32:46.:32:50.

to describe where our pundits think. Where Corbyn sits amongst

:32:51.:32:53.

other Labour leaders. On the left, we have Michael Foot -

:32:54.:32:57.

1983's manifesto. In the middle, we have Ed Miliband

:32:58.:33:08.

from 2015. And we have style at the top and

:33:09.:33:15.

substance here. Stephen Bush is Special

:33:16.:33:26.

Correspondent for the New Statesman. And Faiza Shaheen, Director

:33:27.:33:30.

of the Thinktank Class. I am going to give you a rosette

:33:31.:33:39.

each. Magnetic. This has Jeremy Corbyn on it. Can you give a sense

:33:40.:33:43.

and you can shift these around, where you place Jeremy Corbyn?

:33:44.:33:49.

Substance and style and left and right, in terms of the manifesto

:33:50.:33:53.

draft we have seen so far. This is really tricky because it is about

:33:54.:33:57.

context, the context in which we have seen this manifesto today and

:33:58.:34:02.

we know that we have nurses going to food bags and young people in debt,

:34:03.:34:07.

consumer debt is rising. A bunch of problems. A lot of stuff in the

:34:08.:34:14.

manifesto looks sensible. So I have a problem with this. I am really

:34:15.:34:20.

struggling. You can shift the middle if that is what you are saying.

:34:21.:34:25.

Sorry, yes. I'm going to put it here. Maybe I can move it around in

:34:26.:34:30.

the end. It has substance and style and it is to the left, but each of

:34:31.:34:35.

these leaders, you have to understand in the context of the

:34:36.:34:38.

situation. To the left of Ed Miliband but not as far left as some

:34:39.:34:42.

people have said, in between Michael Foot and Ed Miliband? Yes, fair

:34:43.:34:46.

enough, he goes further on some things. Congratulations on the money

:34:47.:34:52.

that you have spent on this! Saving the licence fee payer money. Michael

:34:53.:34:58.

Foot, I think, should be a little bit further down and to the right

:34:59.:35:03.

because I think Jeremy Corbyn is intrinsically to the left of Michael

:35:04.:35:06.

Foot. He was in the Labour government for many years. You have

:35:07.:35:14.

got your own rosette, is yours. Ed Miliband deserves to be squeezed in

:35:15.:35:20.

the middle. He was a bit more to the left. And Tony Blair, you have put

:35:21.:35:26.

on the extreme right. He was not if you look at a lot of the things he

:35:27.:35:30.

did, people on the left should be proud of them but they are not for

:35:31.:35:33.

some reason. So a bit further to the left. Everyone has moved to the

:35:34.:35:39.

left? I am tempted but Jeremy Corbyn here. It will not stick. Overdue. I

:35:40.:35:50.

am also going to move at and Tony around. I am going to move Ed a bit.

:35:51.:35:57.

Imagine for a moment Jeremy Corbyn was saying, I am going to declare

:35:58.:36:01.

everyone in the Metropolitan Police is racist. We would go, is he a

:36:02.:36:06.

Communist? But Tony Blair did that. If he would increase the statutory

:36:07.:36:11.

form for how much people are paid by 100%, we would say that is radical,

:36:12.:36:15.

but Tony Blair did that. Jeremy Corbyn said, I am going to make

:36:16.:36:19.

every museum and art gallery free, we would say, who is this man? But

:36:20.:36:25.

Tony Blair did that. In many ways, the style axis is the most

:36:26.:36:29.

important. So Jeremy is out to the left in terms of style and Ed in

:36:30.:36:36.

between. Style to substance, so he has less substance? They are all

:36:37.:36:41.

substantial documents, but Jeremy Corbyn is running on a posture of

:36:42.:36:47.

left-wing politics whereas Tony Blair's priority was to reassure the

:36:48.:36:51.

middle classes, aspirational working-class people, who did not

:36:52.:36:54.

usually vote Labour. And if you look at the tone of all former

:36:55.:37:01.

manifestos, they are a lot closer together -- four manifestos. That is

:37:02.:37:06.

where Jeremy Corbyn fails, Tony Blair got people voting Labour that

:37:07.:37:10.

had never voted Labour in the past. In the manifesto today, it does not

:37:11.:37:17.

appeal. Even though there is a poll from the Daily Mirror tonight that

:37:18.:37:22.

these different policies people quite like individually, adding them

:37:23.:37:25.

together, they do not. And that is where Jeremy Corbyn should not be

:37:26.:37:29.

there, he should be much further to the left and may be less substance.

:37:30.:37:34.

I do not think that is to do with the policies. That is to do with

:37:35.:37:40.

other things. One of the things in the discussion before was about the

:37:41.:37:43.

credibility of those policies and whether they have the money to back

:37:44.:37:48.

it up. That complicates this. Ed Miliband probably would have wanted

:37:49.:37:52.

to go this left but did not because they bought into, you can only spend

:37:53.:37:58.

as much as you have and they would not admit to any borrowing. There

:37:59.:38:03.

has been a brake on that in the late manifesto today. A bit of a break!

:38:04.:38:10.

We have not seen... If what they are saying is right and it goes down to

:38:11.:38:14.

leadership and capability in terms of who the leader is, none of the

:38:15.:38:19.

policies even matter. We're not at that point? No, people see things

:38:20.:38:25.

through the policies and Jeremy Corbyn is against somebody who's

:38:26.:38:29.

manifesto is, trust me, it will be OK. This could break the narrative

:38:30.:38:33.

of the election, do you think? What matters is if they can turn people

:38:34.:38:38.

around and if you put trust Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street, and people

:38:39.:38:41.

see the policies through the Prism of the leader. That is what this

:38:42.:38:46.

chart reveals. If we had a focus group, it would put Tony Blair in

:38:47.:38:51.

the middle, Ed to the left a little bit and most people would not know

:38:52.:38:54.

who Michael Foot was, and they would say Jeremy Corbyn is a bit to my

:38:55.:39:00.

left as well. But really, it is about whether the leader is

:39:01.:39:03.

reassuring people. Is there anything Theresa May has taken from today

:39:04.:39:08.

last night's manifesto she will take? If you had but Theresa May in

:39:09.:39:12.

front of a computer and said, would you like to write the Labour

:39:13.:39:17.

manifesto to your maximum benefit, she would have written 90% of this.

:39:18.:39:21.

It plays into her playbook. She also took a policy of Ed Miliband two

:39:22.:39:28.

years ago. In a manifesto of this month, there will be things that

:39:29.:39:32.

sound quite good, I have read all 45 pages and there were things that

:39:33.:39:37.

sound OK. Adding the policies together, it plays into Conservative

:39:38.:39:40.

hands. She is framing the selection on two things, Brexit, with three

:39:41.:39:46.

pages on that which says nothing, and the presidential contest between

:39:47.:39:50.

her and Jeremy Corbyn. In the last week of campaign, I will tell you

:39:51.:39:54.

right now, it will be pitching herself again Jeremy Corbyn to say,

:39:55.:39:58.

who do you think will negotiate best in Brussels? They have gone off that

:39:59.:40:03.

a bit but they will return to that. I am glad you brought Theresa May,

:40:04.:40:06.

it is strange to do this exercise just comparing Labour with Labour,

:40:07.:40:11.

we should compare Labour with what the Conservatives want to do. We

:40:12.:40:15.

have not heard much about what they will do on schools and the NHS, lots

:40:16.:40:21.

of these issues that Corbyn has listed in these documents. It is

:40:22.:40:25.

about comparing what it is, you are right they want to focus on Brexit

:40:26.:40:30.

and leadership. You want us to come back next week! The reason why we

:40:31.:40:36.

are comparing Labour in 2015, Labour got 9 million votes and the Tories

:40:37.:40:41.

11 million. There is nothing any of these rosettes of that those two

:40:42.:40:44.

million people they need to move over to suggest they are any better

:40:45.:40:47.

than Ed. Thank you very much indeed. But before we go, we were wondering

:40:48.:40:50.

whether you could give us a hand? We've noticed that there are certain

:40:51.:40:55.

politicians that appear to be being kept off the

:40:56.:40:58.

airwaves at the moment. Newsnight has sent John Sweeney

:40:59.:41:00.

in pursuit of one of them - the Environment Secretary,

:41:01.:41:04.

Andrea Leadsom. She's evaded him so far,

:41:05.:41:05.

apart from this cryptic tweet. If anyone knows where these woods

:41:06.:41:07.

are, do let us know. Thing is turning more unsettled from

:41:08.:41:32.

the South through the day today and it will turn

:41:33.:41:33.