Browse content similar to 07/06/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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The last few days of this strange election have been | :00:00. | :00:08. | |
But 50 long days ago, a very different campaign began. | :00:09. | :00:14. | |
It is a choice between me and Jeremy Corbyn. | :00:15. | :00:16. | |
I'll give you the figure in a moment. | :00:17. | :00:22. | |
# I'm going to shoot you right down #. | :00:23. | :00:25. | |
What's the naughtiest thing you ever did? | :00:26. | :00:26. | |
Me and my friends sort of used to run through the fields of wheat. | :00:27. | :00:31. | |
The farmers weren't too pleased about that. | :00:32. | :00:33. | |
He will find himself alone and naked in the negotiating chamber. | :00:34. | :00:44. | |
I think it's a shame the Prime Minister hasn't | :00:45. | :00:51. | |
And I don't think seven politicians just arguing amongst themselves | :00:52. | :00:54. | |
Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn... | :00:55. | :01:16. | |
Hello. The talking is over. | :01:17. | :01:18. | |
The election is imminent, you get your say at last. | :01:19. | :01:21. | |
And, for our final pre-election campaign reflections, | :01:22. | :01:23. | |
we are at the Octagon Theatre in Bolton this evening. | :01:24. | :01:25. | |
This is the town where it all started. | :01:26. | :01:27. | |
Theresa May came to this relatively marginal seat | :01:28. | :01:29. | |
of Bolton North East to start her campaign | :01:30. | :01:31. | |
And boy, in doing so, she kicked off yet another | :01:32. | :01:34. | |
event in the series of turbulent national votes of recent years. | :01:35. | :01:38. | |
This has been an unpredictable, rule-busting campaign | :01:39. | :01:40. | |
and one in which many voters appear to have reaffirmed | :01:41. | :01:42. | |
a desire for change, and have shown a willingness to | :01:43. | :01:45. | |
By coming here, Theresa May put northern English towns | :01:46. | :01:53. | |
at the centre of the battle, showering attention on the voters | :01:54. | :01:55. | |
who it seemed were fed up, who had voted Brexit and had flirted | :01:56. | :01:59. | |
It seems an age ago, but Theresa May came here just after Easter. Back | :02:00. | :02:10. | |
then, you'd have guessed that people want a bit of calm anded that her | :02:11. | :02:16. | |
favourite phrase would be a winner. At the time, in places like this | :02:17. | :02:20. | |
Bolton, it seemed Labour support could ebb away. But, after a slow | :02:21. | :02:26. | |
start things began to change more in this campaign than anyone could have | :02:27. | :02:30. | |
imagined. The Labour recovery began. The volatile voter phenomenon was | :02:31. | :02:35. | |
back. After a dull first half, the fight became interesting. Perhaps | :02:36. | :02:43. | |
most remarkable has been the apparent reemergence of two party | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
politics. The old beasts the Tory and Labour Party have have each in | :02:48. | :02:52. | |
their own way adapted to life in the era of populism and discontent. | :02:53. | :02:55. | |
Theresa May wanted to kill Ukip and has yielded some ground to it. | :02:56. | :03:00. | |
Jeremy Corbyn has populous elements in his programme. Neither party | :03:01. | :03:07. | |
bears much resemblance to their 2015 incarnation. Both parties realise | :03:08. | :03:12. | |
something is afoot and our clumsy old system has somehow managed to | :03:13. | :03:17. | |
evolve. So how do the voters of Bolton see things now? Today, I | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
visited a factory that makes disposable chamber pots for the NHS | :03:24. | :03:29. | |
and export. I think it's unfair to finish university with so much | :03:30. | :03:32. | |
prosperity, things you want to do with your life. You have massive | :03:33. | :03:36. | |
debt hanging over you. Have trouble to get on property ladder. Have you | :03:37. | :03:40. | |
been surprised there is so much, kind of, pick up to the Corbyn | :03:41. | :03:44. | |
message during this campaign? I'm very surprised. Particularly, given | :03:45. | :03:47. | |
the circumstances the country is in now and the things that are | :03:48. | :03:50. | |
happening that Corbyn is doing so well. Is something afoot, do you | :03:51. | :03:55. | |
think? Yes. The same with Brexit. People voted for change. You have to | :03:56. | :03:58. | |
be careful. You can't just vote for change. You have to look at the | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
policies and how they are going to move forward. You can't just vote | :04:03. | :04:06. | |
for change. Are you optimistic? I'm probably more optimistic that Corbyn | :04:07. | :04:10. | |
is making a late race only in that the fact that somebody who was so | :04:11. | :04:15. | |
unfancied can now be closing in the polls, shakes up the political | :04:16. | :04:17. | |
establishment. Shakes up the establishment? Yes. People can no | :04:18. | :04:22. | |
longer think I can go with the policies. If Theresa May gets in she | :04:23. | :04:26. | |
will have to think about how she structures her Government to ensure | :04:27. | :04:28. | |
they she captures some of that unrest that has been seen. OK. You | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
might not be surprised that many young workers in manufacturing end | :04:34. | :04:37. | |
up supporting Labour. You won't find the same from older members of the | :04:38. | :04:43. | |
local golf club. However, the surprising thing at this club is | :04:44. | :04:47. | |
that while they won't vote for Mr Corbyn, they think he has a point or | :04:48. | :04:53. | |
two. I think we all admire the principles that Jeremy Corbyn is | :04:54. | :04:57. | |
putting across. Of course. You admire the principles Jeremy Corbyn | :04:58. | :05:01. | |
put across? Exactly. You are all voting Tories you admire The | :05:02. | :05:04. | |
principles. Some. We are senior people. We look back at on our life | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
and look at what we had and how the community functioned. If you are | :05:10. | :05:12. | |
from London there are plenty of opportunities. If you are from | :05:13. | :05:16. | |
anywhere in the north of England, not just the north-west, you would | :05:17. | :05:20. | |
fall back on, say, manufacturing. There is no manufacturing. So to | :05:21. | :05:25. | |
reintroduce manufacturing back into the country post-Brexit would be an | :05:26. | :05:28. | |
excellent things thing. It opens up the door for lots of opportunities. | :05:29. | :05:32. | |
You look at his principles, yeah, you can't argue with them. Do you | :05:33. | :05:37. | |
agree with that, Lorraine? I do. He has basically Labour principles, | :05:38. | :05:43. | |
used to be, but he's too far - I don't agree with how he's so | :05:44. | :05:48. | |
passive. We've got to stick up for yourself in this world. You can't | :05:49. | :05:52. | |
let people ride rough shot over you. His views are the views of what | :05:53. | :05:59. | |
everybody irrespective of what your political allegiance is, I think the | :06:00. | :06:03. | |
views are what we all want. We all want them. But I don't think he can | :06:04. | :06:10. | |
deliver them. It is a time when the country seems unusually divided and, | :06:11. | :06:15. | |
yet, there does still seem to be a widely shared desire for some | :06:16. | :06:18. | |
changing of the economic rules. It I ma be that the election contest is | :06:19. | :06:21. | |
about who can best rise to the challenge. | :06:22. | :06:24. | |
Well, two politicians from this area are with me at the Octagon Theatre. | :06:25. | :06:27. | |
Yasmin Qureshi for Labour, was Shadow Justice Secretary | :06:28. | :06:32. | |
And Nigel Evans for the Conservatives, and who has been | :06:33. | :06:36. | |
Good evening to you both. Thank you. Now then, do you find in this area | :06:37. | :06:48. | |
people are desperate for change or do they want stability? Your | :06:49. | :06:51. | |
campaign was all about stability. Yours is more about change. What is | :06:52. | :06:55. | |
it they want the thirst for change, we will start with you, Yasmin? Yes | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
there is. For too long people feel they are not getting anything out of | :07:01. | :07:03. | |
society. So, for example, you know, owning a home is difficult. Young | :07:04. | :07:07. | |
people are leaving with mass i debts. Not being able to get on to | :07:08. | :07:11. | |
the property ladder. Older people are are worried about what is | :07:12. | :07:14. | |
happening to them. Also parents or people with children who are worried | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
about classroom sizes, education. I sents sense there is a need for | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
change. Right. Nigel, people voted for change in the Brexit referendum. | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
You supported them in that. I certainly did to. The same thirst | :07:28. | :07:32. | |
for change. Maybe saying we want more radical people than Theresa | :07:33. | :07:34. | |
May? It depends what the change is. Brexit was the change in the | :07:35. | :07:38. | |
north-west of England. What is the change here? Well, there's 11 seats | :07:39. | :07:43. | |
in the north-west we are looking at with majorities of fewer than 5,000. | :07:44. | :07:48. | |
Theresa May has been up here several times in the north-east and the | :07:49. | :07:52. | |
north-west of England and she's come up here, not just for health, there | :07:53. | :07:56. | |
are target seats here. Is it going to change? I mean, is she going to | :07:57. | :08:01. | |
take loads of seats? Nigel first and Yasmin? All I can tell you, I | :08:02. | :08:04. | |
visited seven seats during the general election campaign. It may be | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
a snap election, it's been a long campaign, hasn't it. We are all | :08:09. | :08:12. | |
grateful it's the eve of poll. I've heard the same thing time and time | :08:13. | :08:15. | |
again, which is this - I voted Labour in the past, I've been Labour | :08:16. | :08:19. | |
all my life, I'm not voting Labour this time. The one reason - Jeremy | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
Corbyn. It's because they don't think that he is a proper Leader of | :08:24. | :08:27. | |
the Labour Party. Theresa May's goal was to redraw the map of politics in | :08:28. | :08:32. | |
England. Is she going to, Yasmin? No, she's going to. He had a false | :08:33. | :08:36. | |
premise to start the election on the basis she needs more people to help | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
her do Brexit. When the Labour Party, the official opposition, | :08:42. | :08:44. | |
supported triggering Article 50 TB, it was a ruse she saw herself in | :08:45. | :08:48. | |
opinion polls going ahead. I can walk this election. She is not going | :08:49. | :08:52. | |
to. I will tell you why. When she came to Bolton she came in a | :08:53. | :08:55. | |
helicopter answered and went to a private meeting. That does not | :08:56. | :08:59. | |
impress people in the north. In this campaign - Isn't that true. Yeah, | :09:00. | :09:03. | |
for ease of travel. You know why people do what they do. Jeremy and | :09:04. | :09:06. | |
has been using buses. He has been using trains. Today, for example, he | :09:07. | :09:11. | |
travelled from Glasgow down to London, 500 mile journey shechl was | :09:12. | :09:16. | |
in a private jet. I hope it's a private jet made in the north-west | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
of England. I will pose this one question to you. I thought Evan | :09:21. | :09:25. | |
posed them. I'm interested in this. I've looked at a number of Labour | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
leaflets in the north-west of England over the past six weeks, if | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
Jeremy was such an amazing leader, one that I have to say your own MP | :09:34. | :09:42. | |
colleagues have tried to get rid of, why have so many Labour candidates | :09:43. | :09:50. | |
not mentioned Jeremy Corbyn on the leaflets Mrs May hasn't mentioned | :09:51. | :09:53. | |
the conservation it's all about me, strong and stable. I will put a | :09:54. | :09:58. | |
curse on both your houses. Large parts of the north of England, | :09:59. | :10:01. | |
sections of Bolton neglected that have been left to run down. Both | :10:02. | :10:05. | |
your parties have failed the north of England to some extent, haven't | :10:06. | :10:08. | |
they? What you have seen, through the Brexit vote, through other forms | :10:09. | :10:13. | |
of protest vote, you have seen people say - we want to be listened | :10:14. | :10:17. | |
to in parts of the country like this. A protest against you both? | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
With the manifesto we produced in the Labour Party, it's a fantastic | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
manifesto, we talk about investment. We talk about banks. I asked about | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
your record though. Will you concede you had made a mistake and have let | :10:30. | :10:32. | |
things drift too much in parts of the country? In the Labour Party,, | :10:33. | :10:38. | |
when it was in Government, we had real expenditure, invested in the | :10:39. | :10:41. | |
country. Invested in our hospitals, education and our schools. We | :10:42. | :10:45. | |
created jobs. OK. I don't think that we left the north-west behind. You | :10:46. | :10:50. | |
don't. It was all fine until the Tories got in in 2010? No, I'm not | :10:51. | :10:54. | |
saying that. There is a big change taking place. The current Labour | :10:55. | :10:58. | |
Party manifesto taps into that and recognises the fact that there needs | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
to be a change. I will concede there are pockets of def prevagus | :11:03. | :11:05. | |
throughout the whole of the north-west of England. There are | :11:06. | :11:08. | |
people there who feel nobody has been listening to them they are the | :11:09. | :11:12. | |
just managing people and those who are hardly managing at all. They are | :11:13. | :11:15. | |
the ones who I think are looking - they voted Brexit. They are the ones | :11:16. | :11:19. | |
looking to the opportunities that leaving the European Union is going | :11:20. | :11:23. | |
to give to areas like the north-west of England. That's why I'm really | :11:24. | :11:28. | |
pleased we will have a trade commissioner for the north-west | :11:29. | :11:31. | |
going out there to win contracts and creating jobs in the north-west. You | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
managed to make a bit of your own party pitches at the end there. | :11:36. | :11:36. | |
Thank you both very much indeed. I wonder if the last day | :11:37. | :11:40. | |
of a campaign makes much difference? You'd think most minds have been | :11:41. | :11:42. | |
made up but there is also the small matter of exciting the voters enough | :11:43. | :11:46. | |
to make them turn out tomorrow, so certainly the candidates behave | :11:47. | :11:49. | |
as if the last day matters. Theresa May was in London, Norwich, | :11:50. | :11:52. | |
Southampton and the West Midlands. Tim Farron was in Solihull, | :11:53. | :11:54. | |
St Albans and Twickenham. And Jeremy Corbyn was leading | :11:55. | :11:58. | |
multiple rallies across the country. Our political editor, Nick Watt, | :11:59. | :12:04. | |
spent his last day of the campaign, With the clock ticking down | :12:05. | :12:07. | |
to that brief moment voters take charge, | :12:08. | :12:21. | |
Jeremy Corbyn is in his element. A ripple of Corbynmania could be | :12:22. | :12:25. | |
heard across the country today. As the Labour leader visited | :12:26. | :12:35. | |
Scotland, England and here in Wales. As a train buff, Jeremy Corbyn | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
naturally travelled I think some people go | :12:41. | :12:42. | |
around in private jets, On his train travels over the past | :12:43. | :12:47. | |
month-and-a-half, Jeremy Corbyn has At the start, he occasionally | :12:48. | :12:52. | |
struggled to enthuse voters. who sometimes had other matters | :12:53. | :13:02. | |
on their minds as Theresa May enjoyed sky high ratings, | :13:03. | :13:04. | |
and then the Tories had The Tory party thought it was going | :13:05. | :13:06. | |
to be a walk in the park, in the park, they just thought - | :13:07. | :13:19. | |
we're in a lovely park They just thought a walk | :13:20. | :13:22. | |
in the park, what have We've got something very | :13:23. | :13:26. | |
important to offer here. And so the crowds have turned out | :13:27. | :13:29. | |
with similar chants and "I love JC" Just like this rally | :13:30. | :13:33. | |
on the North Wales coast So another great reception | :13:34. | :13:36. | |
for Jeremy Corbyn. Here in Colwyn Bay he's | :13:37. | :13:47. | |
at the halfway point of his tour Most of the seats he's visiting | :13:48. | :13:50. | |
are not held by Labour. The signal he's trying to send | :13:51. | :13:54. | |
is that he's reaching across. We know he can attract | :13:55. | :13:56. | |
these sorts of crowds, the big challenge is - | :13:57. | :13:59. | |
can he translate them into The tetchy Corbyn of old has | :14:00. | :14:01. | |
mellowed and as he laps Friends say Jeremy Corbyn has | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
relaxed into this election campaign. They talk of how he's | :14:07. | :14:19. | |
rekindled the spirit If he wins this general election, | :14:20. | :14:21. | |
which he would do comfortably if he won seats like this one here, | :14:22. | :14:29. | |
it would be the most remarkable journey from a fringe figure | :14:30. | :14:33. | |
in the Labour Party to Number Ten Even if he loses though, | :14:34. | :14:35. | |
this general election campaign will have transformed his fortunes | :14:36. | :14:38. | |
in the Labour Party and make it much more difficult | :14:39. | :14:43. | |
for his opponents to dislodge him. In fact, this campaign has | :14:44. | :14:46. | |
fired up his loyal guard. I was never into politicses | :14:47. | :14:55. | |
because I never thought politicians were like normal | :14:56. | :14:59. | |
people, until now. And Labour supporters, | :15:00. | :15:10. | |
who originally had doubts I actually backed Andy Burnham | :15:11. | :15:11. | |
in the leadership election. However, for me, the idealism | :15:12. | :15:15. | |
of Corbyn is not just We can put these | :15:16. | :15:17. | |
policies into practice. At the end of a gruelling day, | :15:18. | :15:20. | |
hopping on and off trains, Jeremy Corbyn ended his campaign | :15:21. | :15:28. | |
this evening close to his backyard, Whatever the result tomorrow, | :15:29. | :15:31. | |
he believes he has changed the face Well, Nick is now at the site | :15:32. | :15:34. | |
of the last Corbyn event, that rally in Islington, | :15:35. | :15:40. | |
in North London. Nick, we should try to get the mood | :15:41. | :15:51. | |
of both camps, let's start with Labour, what are they feeling this | :15:52. | :15:55. | |
evening. It isn't every day that you've your poetry at a political | :15:56. | :16:02. | |
campaign event but Jeremy Corbyn brought the Labour campaign to an | :16:03. | :16:05. | |
end at the union Chapel in Islington by quoting Shelley, Ye are many, | :16:06. | :16:13. | |
they feel so we know where he got his slogan from, I sense this ends | :16:14. | :16:19. | |
the Labour camp in contented mood after Jeremy Corbyn exceeded | :16:20. | :16:23. | |
expectations in his campaign. But they can read the polls like | :16:24. | :16:27. | |
everyone else and the point to a clear Conservative win in this | :16:28. | :16:32. | |
election. So I sense a mood in the Labour camp that whatever the result | :16:33. | :16:36. | |
they believe Jeremy Corbyn will have changed the face of British politics | :16:37. | :16:41. | |
in this campaign. His aides talk about how they have shifted the | :16:42. | :16:46. | |
centre ground, that Labour manifesto with serious spending commitments, | :16:47. | :16:50. | |
they say that went down very well so Labour can be a much bolder. If | :16:51. | :16:54. | |
Jeremy Corbyn pulls this off he will have changed the face of British | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
politics. If he doesn't, I think it is fair to say he may well have | :16:59. | :17:02. | |
cemented his position within the party. And what are the | :17:03. | :17:12. | |
conservatives feeling, presumably they have looked at the polls. Sends | :17:13. | :17:17. | |
a much calmer mood among Conservative ministers after a | :17:18. | :17:21. | |
fretful few weeks. They acknowledge the campaign has not been a glorious | :17:22. | :17:25. | |
success but say that in recent weeks the mood and a reception on the | :17:26. | :17:30. | |
doorstep has been much better than recent polls suggest. But there our | :17:31. | :17:35. | |
nerves. Their heads say, all should be fine but in their hearts, they | :17:36. | :17:41. | |
say, whose Brexit, who saw Donald Trump? One minister said to me, | :17:42. | :17:46. | |
look, Jeremy Corbyn has been the dominant figure in this campaign | :17:47. | :17:50. | |
which will help Labour in some aspects. But those ministers believe | :17:51. | :17:54. | |
ultimately it will benefit them. This is what one nervous minister | :17:55. | :17:59. | |
told me this evening. Whatever evidence piles up in our favour, it | :18:00. | :18:04. | |
is still going to be a heart stopping moment at 10pm tomorrow | :18:05. | :18:11. | |
night when the exit poll comes out. Nick, thank you very much. | :18:12. | :18:15. | |
It's been quite a year for Theresa May. | :18:16. | :18:17. | |
She seemed to exude a quiet authority in the aftermath | :18:18. | :18:19. | |
of the referendum - in contrast to the bickering boys | :18:20. | :18:21. | |
in her party who were scrapping it out for the top job. | :18:22. | :18:24. | |
There was a lot of goodwill, as she embarked on a mission | :18:25. | :18:27. | |
to recast her party away from the posh, to the ordinary. | :18:28. | :18:30. | |
To rebuild Tory Britain in a post Brexit environment. | :18:31. | :18:32. | |
But while she deftly positioned the party in a place that looked | :18:33. | :18:35. | |
like it might own 80% of the political spectrum, | :18:36. | :18:39. | |
she has not proved as deft at communicating. | :18:40. | :18:41. | |
The election has evidently exposed a certain brittleness | :18:42. | :18:44. | |
I suppose we'll find out which matters more - | :18:45. | :18:48. | |
the strategy, or the ability to inspire in words. | :18:49. | :18:52. | |
But we asked The Times writer Matthew Parris, | :18:53. | :18:56. | |
an independent-minded Conservative supporter, to make a film, | :18:57. | :18:58. | |
offering his view of Theresa May and her politics. | :18:59. | :19:06. | |
Theresa May will not be the first Conservative Prime Minister to have | :19:07. | :19:11. | |
travelled from a comfortable childhood in leafy rural | :19:12. | :19:15. | |
England to the sooty brick hell of Downing Street. | :19:16. | :19:19. | |
But the speed with which this has happened leaves an electorate | :19:20. | :19:23. | |
still trying to colour in an almost blank picture of the character, | :19:24. | :19:27. | |
I've met her, I've dined with her, I've discussed politics with her, | :19:28. | :19:37. | |
but I still don't feel I know who Theresa May really | :19:38. | :19:40. | |
In this film, we've set out to talk to people who've known her or worked | :19:41. | :19:51. | |
with her at different times in her life, in search of what lies | :19:52. | :19:55. | |
behind the steely gaze of the Sphinx of Maidenhead. | :19:56. | :19:59. | |
At Oxford, she didn't join the posh set. | :20:00. | :20:03. | |
As a friend she still keeps up with, Pat Frankland, explains. | :20:04. | :20:05. | |
I think we were a little bit of a gang. | :20:06. | :20:08. | |
One of my friends described it as a group she joined | :20:09. | :20:16. | |
because we were all very normal and we didn't, sort of, stand out, | :20:17. | :20:24. | |
Pat says the ultimate ambition had already dawned. | :20:25. | :20:29. | |
She was very interested in politics even then, | :20:30. | :20:33. | |
and she wanted to be an MP and she seems not to remember it, | :20:34. | :20:38. | |
but I'm sure she told us she wanted to be Prime Minister. | :20:39. | :20:42. | |
Her systematic approach to getting things done seems | :20:43. | :20:44. | |
Well, she had a string of boyfriends and if they... | :20:45. | :21:03. | |
well, they seemed to be more on trial I'd say than most things, | :21:04. | :21:07. | |
She sometimes seemed to have them overlapping because we'd get kicked | :21:08. | :21:11. | |
under the table if we started talking about the wrong film, | :21:12. | :21:14. | |
and if it's one she'd seen with another boyfriend, | :21:15. | :21:17. | |
she didn't want to go and see it again, when we were | :21:18. | :21:20. | |
unfortunate enough to inspire the new boyfriend with it. | :21:21. | :21:24. | |
Once Philip came on the scene, that was it, the others all disappeared. | :21:25. | :21:30. | |
So it was very, very fast that that was the one. | :21:31. | :21:34. | |
And he was very nice, but he seemed quite young. | :21:35. | :21:42. | |
Those early dreams of breaking through as a woman in politics | :21:43. | :21:46. | |
Baroness Jenkin, who co-founded with Theresa May | :21:47. | :21:50. | |
an organisation called Women2Win, a Conservative Party project | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
to increase the number of female Tory MPs, told me she carries | :21:55. | :22:00. | |
on helping, pitching in with energy, but a kind | :22:01. | :22:02. | |
One or two people have said that she has quite a kind | :22:03. | :22:06. | |
But at the same time, very professionally. | :22:07. | :22:14. | |
She wouldn't get emotionally involved with them. | :22:15. | :22:16. | |
But I was struck earlier this year, when I was talking | :22:17. | :22:19. | |
about her on something, and a woman came, wrote to me, | :22:20. | :22:24. | |
and said, I've still got the letter, framed letter, that she wrote me | :22:25. | :22:27. | |
So I think she was very well aware that for a lot of women, you know, | :22:28. | :22:34. | |
the resilience that she has needs to be encouraged in others | :22:35. | :22:36. | |
and I think that she was, you know, very much trying to give some | :22:37. | :22:40. | |
of these women, not exactly backbone, but the kind | :22:41. | :22:42. | |
Both colleagues and journalists seem to agree that she's generally | :22:43. | :22:47. | |
content to let her work speak for itself. | :22:48. | :22:52. | |
Well, my first impression of her was as a journalist and I've | :22:53. | :22:55. | |
always rather admired the fact that Theresa May never wanted | :22:56. | :22:57. | |
Actually, a lot of journalists found it very difficult | :22:58. | :23:02. | |
because they could never get a story out of her. | :23:03. | :23:07. | |
And I came to believe she's a very rare politician | :23:08. | :23:09. | |
And I think that's quite an advantage. | :23:10. | :23:13. | |
Well, I'm by nature a bit of a gossip and a bit of a, | :23:14. | :23:16. | |
you know, I like a chat at the end of the day. | :23:17. | :23:19. | |
I mean, she was, as I say, highly professional, | :23:20. | :23:24. | |
but there was no - OK, let's kick our shoes off and, | :23:25. | :23:27. | |
Is she personally, socially an easy colleague? | :23:28. | :23:41. | |
She's funnier than her public image, sort of, suggests. | :23:42. | :23:46. | |
On a car journey she's very good company, | :23:47. | :23:49. | |
Nick Clegg, as Deputy Prime Minister, when Theresa May | :23:50. | :23:58. | |
was Home Secretary, was never personally close, but he | :23:59. | :24:00. | |
Unlike Sir Eric, he believes he spotted an early insecurity. | :24:01. | :24:09. | |
My recollection is of someone who felt slightly overwhelmed | :24:10. | :24:11. | |
by what she was being asked to do in the Home Office. | :24:12. | :24:14. | |
When we announced all these highly controversial savings, | :24:15. | :24:16. | |
there was something, sort of, especially meticulous, | :24:17. | :24:20. | |
but slightly unsure as well about the way that she, | :24:21. | :24:26. | |
sort of, pored over all the numbers in Number Ten. | :24:27. | :24:32. | |
How about her emerging political philosophy, had Thatcher | :24:33. | :24:34. | |
I don't know why not, though she was quite irritated | :24:35. | :24:43. | |
Pipped to the post, I'm sure I remember that. | :24:44. | :25:00. | |
I think Margaret always seemed quite harsh towards the common | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
people, and I don't think Theresa would like that. | :25:06. | :25:11. | |
But if she wasn't exactly a Thatcherite, what was she? | :25:12. | :25:13. | |
She was meticulous about the trees, but how about the wood? | :25:14. | :25:25. | |
Nick Clegg thinks she took refuge in detail and found her | :25:26. | :25:29. | |
reluctant to talk alone without special advisers. | :25:30. | :25:33. | |
I asked her not to bring the special advisers | :25:34. | :25:43. | |
with her into the meetings that I used to have | :25:44. | :25:45. | |
found it all rather disrupt, but I did find that, | :25:46. | :25:49. | |
as a result, I could never get a decision out of her | :25:50. | :25:52. | |
in the meetings because she'd have to go back and sort of, | :25:53. | :25:55. | |
I assume, test her ideas and test my suggestions | :25:56. | :25:57. | |
The most striking thing of all is how little she said or how | :25:58. | :26:03. | |
little she displayed much interest in wider political issues. | :26:04. | :26:07. | |
I don't think, I don't think I can recall a single instance, | :26:08. | :26:12. | |
either in private meetings with her or in private conversations | :26:13. | :26:14. | |
with her or around the Cabinet table, where she ever said anything | :26:15. | :26:18. | |
interesting about or of interest in our economy. | :26:19. | :26:22. | |
I think she has a major weakness, which is she's not very interested | :26:23. | :26:30. | |
in business and she doesn't understand business terribly well, | :26:31. | :26:32. | |
I suspect and I think neither does her inner circle. | :26:33. | :26:36. | |
I think this, as we head into Brexit, will be a major issue. | :26:37. | :26:41. | |
She needs to get an awful lot more sophisticated about giving | :26:42. | :26:44. | |
I think in terms of, sort of, an organising vision for society, | :26:45. | :26:55. | |
I'm not really persuaded there is much there. | :26:56. | :26:57. | |
I offer myself as your Prime Minister. | :26:58. | :27:06. | |
And if they are right and she lacks an organising vision, does she | :27:07. | :27:11. | |
I asked Camilla Cavendish about those recent | :27:12. | :27:14. | |
The manifesto promise on social policy for instance. | :27:15. | :27:20. | |
I imagine that what will have happened is yes, she will have been | :27:21. | :27:23. | |
pretty nervous about the reaction, that Lynton Crosby will have told | :27:24. | :27:26. | |
her to get the barnacles off the boat, because it was becoming a | :27:27. | :27:29. | |
distraction in the campaign, and she has backed down. | :27:30. | :27:31. | |
That suggests to me that she may not have been as | :27:32. | :27:34. | |
committed to the policy in the first place as I had assumed. | :27:35. | :27:37. | |
Because to push a policy like that through you | :27:38. | :27:39. | |
Intelligence comes in so many forms and perhaps general phrases about | :27:40. | :27:53. | |
intellect are meaningless but I asked Anne Jenkin anyway. | :27:54. | :27:55. | |
I mean, she's not obviously brilliant | :27:56. | :28:01. | |
but she has a good enough mind to have got to Oxford at a time when it | :28:02. | :28:06. | |
wasn't very easy, but she has an organised mind and | :28:07. | :28:08. | |
I don't think it's a brilliant mind but does that matter? | :28:09. | :28:13. | |
And even if Lady Jenkin is right, is it really more | :28:14. | :28:24. | |
On the doorstep myself I found that the | :28:25. | :28:26. | |
people among whom Theresa May's name really does help a Tory canvasser | :28:27. | :28:31. | |
are precisely the kind of people she is always talking about. | :28:32. | :28:37. | |
The middle middle classes, the lower middle classes, people who have a | :28:38. | :28:40. | |
bit of a struggle, have to look for the next penny | :28:41. | :28:43. | |
The people whose problems she thinks she understands better | :28:44. | :28:47. | |
Nor should we overlook her moments of | :28:48. | :28:59. | |
intellectual daring, too frequent to dismiss as untypical. | :29:00. | :29:08. | |
That famous "nasty party" speech for instance, her | :29:09. | :29:10. | |
fierce expression of sympathy for black youth. | :29:11. | :29:12. | |
If you're black you're treated more harshly by the criminal | :29:13. | :29:14. | |
justice system, then if you're white. | :29:15. | :29:16. | |
Her visible outrage at what she sees as injustice, like when she | :29:17. | :29:19. | |
refused to extradite the hacker Gary McKinnon to the United States. | :29:20. | :29:21. | |
Or her astonishing speech laying into the Police | :29:22. | :29:24. | |
If the federation does not start to turn itself around, you | :29:25. | :29:31. | |
must not be under the impression that the government will let things | :29:32. | :29:33. | |
I think if she's not treated with respect, but that | :29:34. | :29:43. | |
And I suspect it would annoy you as well. | :29:44. | :29:48. | |
Whether Theresa May is respected by those on | :29:49. | :29:53. | |
the other side of the table may depend not so much on a majority, | :29:54. | :29:56. | |
were she to get it, but her abilities. | :29:57. | :29:58. | |
Does she have those negotiating skills? | :29:59. | :30:09. | |
I think she has great control in the sense that if she | :30:10. | :30:11. | |
doesn't get her way, she won't necessarily always | :30:12. | :30:13. | |
reveal her inner fury but she clearly will not | :30:14. | :30:15. | |
And again that's a strength but it also can be a bit of | :30:16. | :30:23. | |
a weakness if you are having to deploy quicksilver | :30:24. | :30:26. | |
charm and persuade people to do what you want. | :30:27. | :30:42. | |
Eric Pickles made a surprising, possibly unintended | :30:43. | :30:43. | |
I always found her very straightforward to deal with, | :30:44. | :30:53. | |
providing you told her what you wanted to do | :30:54. | :30:55. | |
and you didn't try to get yourself into a negotiation. | :30:56. | :30:58. | |
Most people in politics are transactional. | :30:59. | :31:00. | |
She is the worst person in the world to do a deal because she'll do | :31:01. | :31:09. | |
But if you come to her, in a reasonable way, | :31:10. | :31:14. | |
with a reasonable case, nine times out of ten she'll back you. | :31:15. | :31:17. | |
Her unwillingness to horse trade was a | :31:18. | :31:19. | |
close relative of another Theresa May tactic in meetings and | :31:20. | :31:22. | |
Um, what she does do, and she does it with journalists | :31:23. | :31:36. | |
as well, is that she uses silence to enormous effect. | :31:37. | :31:44. | |
She doesn't always, she is not always | :31:45. | :31:45. | |
Now what that means is that other people will fill the gap, | :31:46. | :31:49. | |
and that, I think, is quite a useful strategy because she gets an awful | :31:50. | :31:53. | |
One technique that I admired was, she did have the ability, which I | :31:54. | :32:02. | |
remember sort of making a mental note that I must try to emulate | :32:03. | :32:05. | |
myself, of just sort of saying no and sitting there and saying | :32:06. | :32:08. | |
It's like, what's the point of having a meeting if you're not | :32:09. | :32:13. | |
If her silence was a strength, I wanted to know her | :32:14. | :32:19. | |
While she's lost her air of invincibility in this general | :32:20. | :32:23. | |
election campaign, I wanted to know what people | :32:24. | :32:25. | |
who knew her thought if | :32:26. | :32:28. | |
she were to fall, what would bring her down. | :32:29. | :32:30. | |
I was surprised by their near-unanimity. | :32:31. | :32:32. | |
If she was to fail, it might be sometimes the ability to | :32:33. | :32:35. | |
build a coalition inside the party to support. | :32:36. | :32:41. | |
Perhaps it would be about not listening to a wide | :32:42. | :32:43. | |
variety of voices, that would be my instinct. | :32:44. | :32:48. | |
Even one of her oldest friends agrees. | :32:49. | :32:50. | |
Do you see any character traits that might trip | :32:51. | :32:52. | |
Ahem, possibly her lack of ability to form a gang. | :32:53. | :33:10. | |
I don't know how that works with making her Cabinet | :33:11. | :33:15. | |
into a team, though I'm told she's quite good to work for in the civil | :33:16. | :33:19. | |
service sense, so she may be able to do that well. | :33:20. | :33:22. | |
It gets worse as you get older, from my experience anyway! | :33:23. | :33:28. | |
Is it her early life that holds the key or do reflections of | :33:29. | :33:37. | |
She keeps her personality, her identity almost, | :33:38. | :33:42. | |
Whether it's in the silences that act like a moat | :33:43. | :33:55. | |
or close advisers, who act like archers firing from the walls, | :33:56. | :33:57. | |
the urge to keep the world out needs explaining. | :33:58. | :34:00. | |
You might behave as she does if you absolutely knew what to | :34:01. | :34:02. | |
You might behave as she does, if you didn't have a clue. | :34:03. | :34:09. | |
We have been out and about in this campaign - | :34:10. | :34:24. | |
not quite as intended, as it happens, as a result of | :34:25. | :34:26. | |
But it is fair to say that every town and city has a perspective | :34:27. | :34:31. | |
and every visit away from home provides an insight. | :34:32. | :34:36. | |
So we have brought two members of our election panel | :34:37. | :34:39. | |
to Bolton to help us analyse the campaign. | :34:40. | :34:41. | |
Polly Mackenzie, former advisor to Nick Clegg and writer | :34:42. | :34:44. | |
and columnist and Corbyn supporter, Paul Mason. | :34:45. | :34:45. | |
In London is Iain Dale, Tory-supporting LBC presenter. | :34:46. | :34:47. | |
We thought we would keep him there away from Paul. Good evening to you | :34:48. | :34:51. | |
all. Let us talk about Theresa May. We have had a Theresa May profile | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
there. Iain, I want to start with you. When the manifesto came out, on | :34:56. | :34:59. | |
this programme, said you didn't think much of the manifesto. I | :35:00. | :35:02. | |
wonder what now, as you look back on this campaign, what you think went | :35:03. | :35:06. | |
wrong with the campaign? Well, I think that film from Matthew Parris | :35:07. | :35:11. | |
was absolutely outstanding. It told me things about Theresa May I didn't | :35:12. | :35:14. | |
know. I thought it was really insightful. The problem with the | :35:15. | :35:18. | |
manifesto was that it didn't compete with Labour's in terms of its | :35:19. | :35:22. | |
vision, in terms of its eye-catching policies, in terms of its layout, | :35:23. | :35:27. | |
indeed. There was nothing for Tory canvassers, I said at the time, to | :35:28. | :35:30. | |
go out and sell on the doorstep. Because the social care policy | :35:31. | :35:34. | |
unravelled within a few days, that always left them on the back foot. | :35:35. | :35:38. | |
People are still mentioning that even today. To try to pretend that | :35:39. | :35:44. | |
not having a cap and then having a cap wasn't a U-turn was just | :35:45. | :35:48. | |
completely unsustainable. They were always on the back foot from that | :35:49. | :35:51. | |
moment on. I think in the last week, since the Question Time debate, I | :35:52. | :35:56. | |
think Theresa May has recovered her mojo somewhat and has come across in | :35:57. | :35:58. | |
a different way to the previous couple of weeks. Polly, what do you | :35:59. | :36:03. | |
think? What do you think about the Theresa May campaign? It clearly | :36:04. | :36:08. | |
hasn't been what they wanted? No, it hasn't been. I think when Theresa | :36:09. | :36:12. | |
May's really good is when she's absolutely on top of her brief. When | :36:13. | :36:18. | |
she knows every in and out of. It on police reform, on gender equality | :36:19. | :36:22. | |
she was really forensic on that. The problem with pulling together a | :36:23. | :36:26. | |
manifesto for an entirety of Government in a few short weeks is | :36:27. | :36:30. | |
that it require as lot more nip bellness and the ability to be | :36:31. | :36:34. | |
flexible and get to grips with thing. They threw things in there at | :36:35. | :36:38. | |
the last-minute, let's say something about fox-hunting and social care | :36:39. | :36:41. | |
that looks brave. In the end it became a mish mash. When she's not | :36:42. | :36:46. | |
fully briefed. When she's not in the detail, that is when the mistakes | :36:47. | :36:54. | |
have been made. A fair point. Mr Crosby is supposed to know how to | :36:55. | :36:58. | |
run a campaign? It didn't work in one or two other ones. I have been | :36:59. | :37:02. | |
in the doorstep in constituencies in the north-west today. One thing | :37:03. | :37:06. | |
nobody talks about is Theresa May. It's really interesting. As a Labour | :37:07. | :37:11. | |
canvasser you get - I might not vote, I won't foe vote for you | :37:12. | :37:15. | |
because of corp bin or a policy or people's circumstances change. There | :37:16. | :37:19. | |
is no enthusiasm for her. I think... It's a strategic mistake. I know for | :37:20. | :37:27. | |
a fact she's not - she walked into studios like this where I've been | :37:28. | :37:34. | |
reporting, you have been presented, he she has won't meet a single | :37:35. | :37:39. | |
ordinary person. We could count them on a couple of hands how many - she | :37:40. | :37:45. | |
hasn't exposed herself to that amazing rocky rided that you go - | :37:46. | :37:50. | |
that people like Corbyn go through where you meet real people. I want | :37:51. | :37:54. | |
to ask an important question. This is the most important question for | :37:55. | :38:00. | |
the country, perhaps. Is Theresa May better than the campaign has given | :38:01. | :38:03. | |
the impression of her being? Many are saying, she hasn't looked good | :38:04. | :38:07. | |
in this campaign. Is that because she isn't good or because the | :38:08. | :38:10. | |
campaign has been rather badly handled, what do you think? She came | :38:11. | :38:14. | |
into office as Prime Minister as a surprise. She wasn't expecting it to | :38:15. | :38:17. | |
happen. It happened. We have nine months to judge her on as Prime | :38:18. | :38:21. | |
Minister. I think she actually did really well in those nine months as | :38:22. | :38:24. | |
Prime Minister. She proved she could doo-doo the job. She didn't come | :38:25. | :38:29. | |
into TV studios every five minutes. Whiches her redcressor did quite a | :38:30. | :38:33. | |
lot. A Prime Ministerial interview had a sense of occasion about that. | :38:34. | :38:36. | |
I think that's probably right. I'm going to take Paul up on what he | :38:37. | :38:40. | |
said, to say she hasn't met normal people during this campaign, of | :38:41. | :38:43. | |
course what the TV cameras don't show is when she goes to factories | :38:44. | :38:47. | |
she takes like 20 or 30 questions from the people in the audience. | :38:48. | :38:50. | |
They are not always Conservative supporters. They are the people who | :38:51. | :38:53. | |
work in the factories. Jeremy Corbyn in this campaign has been brilliant | :38:54. | :38:58. | |
at attracting massive crowds of enthusiastic supporters. I haven't | :38:59. | :39:02. | |
seen many occasions when he's interacted with normal people. He's | :39:03. | :39:09. | |
done no phone-ins, for example. Paul, answer that point. The factory | :39:10. | :39:16. | |
meetings are prevetted, they should be for security reasons. Let us | :39:17. | :39:20. | |
leave that aside. If the Tories want to go into tomorrow believing | :39:21. | :39:24. | |
Theresa May's invisibility because Jeremy Corbyn hasn't met any real | :39:25. | :39:27. | |
people. Please, carry on, we will be happy for you to take the actions on | :39:28. | :39:32. | |
that belief. Do you think Theresa May, Iain thinks she proved herself | :39:33. | :39:38. | |
over nine months shechl may not be as confident in the campaign as | :39:39. | :39:41. | |
Prime Minister, she's not as good on her feet and campaigning. What do | :39:42. | :39:44. | |
you think it is though, do you think the campaign has been, sort of, | :39:45. | :39:48. | |
unfairly... The problem with campaigns is they do require you to | :39:49. | :39:51. | |
be a bit more human and relaxed and much more flexible. On your feet. | :39:52. | :39:56. | |
Thinking very quickly? Exactly. I don't think that's your natural kind | :39:57. | :40:01. | |
of... Does it matter for a Prime Minister. Do you needed to think on | :40:02. | :40:05. | |
your feet or take a bit of time. What we expect you to do when | :40:06. | :40:09. | |
campaigning but... Donald Trump's travel ban, for example, she was | :40:10. | :40:13. | |
criticised for not being able to respond quickly. It took her hours | :40:14. | :40:18. | |
and hours she needed a briefing from every department. That's her | :40:19. | :40:22. | |
weakness. On the flip side of that, her strength is she does take a | :40:23. | :40:26. | |
brief well. She thinks about things before she makes decisions. She's a | :40:27. | :40:30. | |
Bert Prime Minister than she is campaigner. But the question is | :40:31. | :40:34. | |
whether it's going - whether it damaged her leadership and that | :40:35. | :40:38. | |
invisibility. Thank you very much. He we will come back for a longer | :40:39. | :40:41. | |
discussion later. Chris Cook complains where the | :40:42. | :40:53. | |
campaign has been fought and what that tells us. It's fitting that we | :40:54. | :40:55. | |
give Chris one last outing. Can we learn something | :40:56. | :41:01. | |
about what the parties are expecting tomorrow from where their leaders | :41:02. | :41:03. | |
have been campaigning? If there is, the BBC | :41:04. | :41:07. | |
Newsnight campaign tracker So to start, let's return be | :41:08. | :41:09. | |
to a familiar graph. Each dot here represents | :41:10. | :41:14. | |
a constituency where The furthest left seats | :41:15. | :41:19. | |
are the safest Labour seats in 2015, the furthest right ones | :41:20. | :41:24. | |
are the safest Tory seats from 2015. The most marginial ones | :41:25. | :41:33. | |
are the ones in the middle. Looking vertically, the higher up | :41:34. | :41:36. | |
seats are ones where Ukip got Now, these rings mark out | :41:37. | :41:39. | |
where Theresa May has held the campaign visits since the Tory | :41:40. | :41:42. | |
manifesto launch a month ago. more ambitious in her | :41:43. | :41:52. | |
campaigning in areas She goes much further left | :41:53. | :41:55. | |
in the higher Ukip areas, at the top of the chart, | :41:56. | :41:59. | |
than she goes in in the low Ukip areas, at the bottom of the chart am | :42:00. | :42:02. | |
can you use this chart to mark out the edges of what the Tories seem | :42:03. | :42:06. | |
to think is possible. I suggest they imply the zone | :42:07. | :42:09. | |
of gains is something like this. They seem to be targeting | :42:10. | :42:11. | |
between around 30 and 50 extra seats Now, Ms May has only been | :42:12. | :42:14. | |
to Scotland a few times, but trips by Ruth Davidson, | :42:15. | :42:18. | |
the Scottish Tory leader, imply they're going for around | :42:19. | :42:20. | |
ten seats up there. So it looks like the Tories | :42:21. | :42:23. | |
are aiming for around Jeremy Corbyn's campaign though | :42:24. | :42:25. | |
suggests something rather different. First, he's going to a lot | :42:26. | :42:31. | |
of very safe Labour seats But that zone where Theresa May's | :42:32. | :42:34. | |
been fighting, not so much. So we can't really easily draw | :42:35. | :42:54. | |
in a similar sort of guesstimate about where he thinks | :42:55. | :42:57. | |
the campaign is. It might be worth joining | :42:58. | :42:59. | |
up a few dots here. So the first thing to note is, | :43:00. | :43:01. | |
local TV news bulletins actually get bigger audiences and are more | :43:02. | :43:05. | |
trusted than the national Secondly, it's worth noting that | :43:06. | :43:07. | |
Mr Corbyn's rallies look Finally, while Mr Corbyn | :43:08. | :43:10. | |
isn't going directly into those Tory target seats, | :43:11. | :43:13. | |
he is going to lots of seats that So that means that images of his | :43:14. | :43:17. | |
energetic, well attended rallies, will be broadcast into the marginals | :43:18. | :43:25. | |
on the local news. This strategy also means he meets | :43:26. | :43:28. | |
lots of party members, as he did tonight which, | :43:29. | :43:32. | |
cynics note, will be a benefit Labour's events are certainly | :43:33. | :43:34. | |
quite hard to read. The Tory intention of making big | :43:35. | :43:37. | |
gains tomorrow though Let's carry on thinking about the | :43:38. | :43:40. | |
campaign. One of the questions that leaps out | :43:41. | :43:56. | |
as you observe the campaign is how politicians should engage | :43:57. | :43:59. | |
with the public. You might have thought | :44:00. | :44:01. | |
we were in for an era of less controlled messaging - | :44:02. | :44:04. | |
hasn't Trump shown that a less buttoned up style | :44:05. | :44:05. | |
of campaigning can appeal? You might have thought | :44:06. | :44:07. | |
that, but this election was often very controlled - | :44:08. | :44:09. | |
security has perhaps made John Sweeney looks at how | :44:10. | :44:12. | |
things have changed. That's to say, if you are a little | :44:13. | :44:19. | |
boy, I'm not a little girl! The art of political theatre, | :44:20. | :44:30. | |
of how to handle hostile heckling Look at these performances | :44:31. | :44:33. | |
by the masters. Within our tightly-controlled | :44:34. | :44:41. | |
and rigidly expended Government expenditure programme | :44:42. | :44:43. | |
for the next five years. We have no plans for | :44:44. | :44:46. | |
expenditure in Vietnam. I saw you at the beginning | :44:47. | :44:53. | |
of the week, you've been What the hell are you using | :44:54. | :45:02. | |
for transport, helicopters? APPLAUSE Half a century on, | :45:03. | :45:15. | |
things are rather different. Back in the day Robert Harris, | :45:16. | :45:24. | |
formerly of Newsnight, reported on how control freakery | :45:25. | :45:29. | |
was ruining British politics. Well, these allegations | :45:30. | :45:33. | |
of a Prime Minister, female Prime Minister, | :45:34. | :45:35. | |
avoiding all contact with journalists and with | :45:36. | :45:36. | |
the public are not new. I mean, terrifyingly, | :45:37. | :45:40. | |
a third of a century ago, as a much younger man, | :45:41. | :45:42. | |
I came at the wrong end of an encounter with | :45:43. | :45:45. | |
Margaret Thatcher who was touring This is what it is like being on the | :45:46. | :45:55. | |
campaign trail with the Prime Minister... Voters everywhere and | :45:56. | :46:01. | |
the work is not interested, it was just to get pictures of her in a | :46:02. | :46:04. | |
factory with new technology. There are hundreds of members of the media | :46:05. | :46:08. | |
who swarm around the Prime Minister, follow their every move and the idea | :46:09. | :46:12. | |
from the Conservatives's point of view is to get the best possible | :46:13. | :46:16. | |
exposure on the TV news that evening. That I think was a | :46:17. | :46:21. | |
break-out, a new kind of election, American-style, copied from Ronald | :46:22. | :46:24. | |
Reagan, where you did not do the monster rally. You didn't go out on | :46:25. | :46:30. | |
the hustings, you just got good pictures of evening news. Back then | :46:31. | :46:37. | |
politics was raw and brutal and much more fun. Mainly I find it helpful | :46:38. | :46:44. | |
to invite them, say, I couldn't hear, say it again, and then they | :46:45. | :46:49. | |
will come back. Even your Conservative leader described were | :46:50. | :46:54. | |
dizzy as a police state. You would not last long there, my friend. -- | :46:55. | :47:08. | |
road easier. My friend, we do not support Savages, we just allow them | :47:09. | :47:15. | |
to come to our meetings, that's all! There he goes, Neil Kinnock. By the | :47:16. | :47:20. | |
early 1990s political control of recovery was the new normal. Don't | :47:21. | :47:25. | |
let the people who take to the streets take your country. But then | :47:26. | :47:31. | |
underdog John major dug out his soapbox from the attic. I caught up | :47:32. | :47:36. | |
with him on the Tory campaign. Mr Major, could you video me for my | :47:37. | :47:41. | |
video diary? You put the left hand through there. I think this isn't | :47:42. | :47:47. | |
true. No, it's working. You can see me. This is a piece to camera. Would | :47:48. | :47:53. | |
you mind putting your ties straight, you looks lovely! John Major's | :47:54. | :48:01. | |
relative openness is all but gone. Jeremy Corbyn relishes campaigning | :48:02. | :48:05. | |
but it would take a brave soul to hackle him. History tells us but | :48:06. | :48:12. | |
just because your side loves you does not mean you will win. It was | :48:13. | :48:18. | |
noticeable, the difference between Margaret Thatcher's campaign and | :48:19. | :48:22. | |
Michael foot's campaign which was huge rallies, once he had 30,000 | :48:23. | :48:27. | |
people, much good it did him. Just how controlled is the Theresa May | :48:28. | :48:33. | |
campaign? It is the flavour of an evangelical meeting, everyone here | :48:34. | :48:37. | |
agrees with Saint Theresa but the problem is where is the argument, | :48:38. | :48:43. | |
where is the challenge. To be fair reporters say she has been taking | :48:44. | :48:48. | |
more questions in the past week but the Sage is not convinced. Something | :48:49. | :48:52. | |
is wrong with this election. I think a lot of people feel it, no matter | :48:53. | :48:56. | |
what the party is, that is that the Prime Minister in particular is not | :48:57. | :49:00. | |
engaging with people and that is an offence to the electorate, it seems | :49:01. | :49:08. | |
to me. Control may feel right for the political parties but one cannot | :49:09. | :49:12. | |
but wonder whether our democracy is losing out. | :49:13. | :49:16. | |
John Sweeney on the art of campaigning with the people. We are | :49:17. | :49:24. | |
back with our panel, Iain Dale, Polly McKenzie, and Paul Mason. We | :49:25. | :49:28. | |
will start this last section of the programme with getting their | :49:29. | :49:31. | |
predictions for the election. I will ask them who they think will be the | :49:32. | :49:34. | |
biggest party and what the size of the majority will be. Will it be a | :49:35. | :49:37. | |
Tory majority of ten, 20, 30, 40, 200 or more? Iain Dale, will be the | :49:38. | :49:49. | |
biggest party? You might not be surprised me to say Conservative. | :49:50. | :49:54. | |
OK, so I have picked of the blue rosette. What are you suggesting, a | :49:55. | :49:59. | |
majority? Have you got more than one was that because I want two goes. My | :50:00. | :50:04. | |
gut feeling at the beginning of the campaign was a majority of 74 and | :50:05. | :50:08. | |
part of me still believes that but I have done seat by set predictions | :50:09. | :50:11. | |
and revised them over the weekend and it still comes up with a | :50:12. | :50:16. | |
Conservative majority of 122. Shall we take the average and just call it | :50:17. | :50:22. | |
a hundred? You do what you like, Evan! I will put them on 100. Polly, | :50:23. | :50:29. | |
I have a yellow Lib Dem rosette for you if you wanted. Biggar they will | :50:30. | :50:35. | |
not win this election with a majority, I'm pretty confident on | :50:36. | :50:39. | |
that one. The Conservatives will be the biggest party. I am a bit more | :50:40. | :50:45. | |
cautious than Iain because there has been such noise about social care in | :50:46. | :50:48. | |
particular, and when you mess with people's houses, I think it affects | :50:49. | :50:56. | |
turnout. So I would go 60. Majority of 60. YouGov, their model, they are | :50:57. | :51:01. | |
getting a hung parliament. But you are going to 60 and Iain is going | :51:02. | :51:07. | |
for 100. I'm not going to let you change. If you look seat by seat in | :51:08. | :51:12. | |
the YouGov model it doesn't make sense, it is nonsense. Know, Paul. I | :51:13. | :51:16. | |
think it was the day that the election was announced we had you on | :51:17. | :51:19. | |
and you said you thought Labour would win. Could win! I think it was | :51:20. | :51:27. | |
stronger than could win. What are you saying now. Heart and head | :51:28. | :51:33. | |
prediction. My head tells me between 20 and 30 majority of the Tories. | :51:34. | :51:37. | |
They will be the largest party because I think Labour will not claw | :51:38. | :51:40. | |
back although we might get three seats in Scotland. The Tories the | :51:41. | :51:45. | |
largest party, hung parliament, Progressive Alliance, bring it on. | :51:46. | :51:51. | |
So perfectly possible hung parliament... My head says the deep | :51:52. | :51:55. | |
but I will go with my heart, hung parliament, progressive alliance -- | :51:56. | :52:02. | |
my head says 30. Bring it on. It's like a sort of Vladimir Putin the | :52:03. | :52:08. | |
style, is and has decided. We want to put a Jeremy Corbyn rosette. We | :52:09. | :52:14. | |
want be anything like the biggest party. Will put in there. Paul, | :52:15. | :52:22. | |
seriously -- we will not be anything like the biggest party. Ball, at the | :52:23. | :52:26. | |
start of the campaign when the Tories had a big lead what we're | :52:27. | :52:28. | |
thinking about predictions that Labour could win? I was pretty | :52:29. | :52:36. | |
confident. You are always trying to assess Day by Day but I said on this | :52:37. | :52:40. | |
programme that because of Theresa May's May three speech where she | :52:41. | :52:46. | |
declared furball war, the Ukip vote collapsed in the polls. I said we | :52:47. | :52:51. | |
must do something equally dramatic but I knew we would. I thought, | :52:52. | :52:57. | |
?9,000 a year for students, ?9 a week for school dinner money is | :52:58. | :53:00. | |
quite dramatic if you are earning about ?8 50 an hour, and on zero | :53:01. | :53:06. | |
hours contract. The manifesto was the game changer. I knew it would. | :53:07. | :53:14. | |
Let me ask you all. Theresa May, her ratings have gone down, is it | :53:15. | :53:18. | |
because she is not good because her campaign is bad. Corbyn's ratings | :53:19. | :53:24. | |
have gone up. Is it because he is a good campaign, Iain, or a good | :53:25. | :53:30. | |
leader? He has run a much better campaign than even Paul thought he | :53:31. | :53:33. | |
would, certainly better than I thought. He has relaxed into it, | :53:34. | :53:37. | |
always a good thing for a politician to do. I think that Paul is | :53:38. | :53:42. | |
clutching a few opinion poll straws in his prediction because it is only | :53:43. | :53:47. | |
YouGov and one other polls showing these narrow Tory leads, there was | :53:48. | :53:50. | |
one poll yesterday showing a one point Tory lead. And that was based | :53:51. | :53:55. | |
on the premise that younger voters aged 18-24 would have a 90% turnout. | :53:56. | :54:01. | |
Now YouGov have had similar modelling in their polls, Polly was | :54:02. | :54:05. | |
right, their constituency predictions, they have Canterbury | :54:06. | :54:10. | |
with a majority of 10,000 going to Labour, presumably because the whole | :54:11. | :54:14. | |
of the University of Kent will vote Labour. They've got Anna Soubry | :54:15. | :54:20. | |
losing his seat. Type in any constituency, it's lunacy. These | :54:21. | :54:22. | |
pollsters will have a lot of egg on their face on Friday morning. But if | :54:23. | :54:31. | |
they don't, I will! YouGov have been hedging their bets, adding in the | :54:32. | :54:34. | |
people who don't know and widening the Tory lead. I think they are | :54:35. | :54:41. | |
right because for Labour strategists not everything depends on the youth | :54:42. | :54:45. | |
vote turning out but a lot does. The variables do. And there's another | :54:46. | :54:52. | |
group. The mums and dads, mums and mums, parents with kids in primary | :54:53. | :54:57. | |
school. Those are the people that I have found the most energised on the | :54:58. | :55:02. | |
doorstep but it only takes for someone to fall over in the | :55:03. | :55:05. | |
playground and you don't have time to vote. Turnout is a big thing for | :55:06. | :55:11. | |
Labour. It will be big if it is pouring with rain. You are in the | :55:12. | :55:16. | |
north-west of England! One interesting thing about this | :55:17. | :55:20. | |
election is, normally you say, if you are ahead on the economy and the | :55:21. | :55:24. | |
leader, that is worth more than being ahead in the polls and we | :55:25. | :55:29. | |
should have done that last time, and David Cameron was had leadership | :55:30. | :55:33. | |
over Ed Miliband and the Tories were ahead on the economy this election, | :55:34. | :55:37. | |
it seems to have broken that rule. No one has talked about the economy | :55:38. | :55:43. | |
really. We don't know because tomorrow it might be the fact that | :55:44. | :55:47. | |
Theresa May is holding up on leader, still ahead in most of the testing, | :55:48. | :55:53. | |
and also the Tories are still the most tested on the economy so it | :55:54. | :55:57. | |
might be that that iron rule has not been broken. Iain, has been broken? | :55:58. | :56:05. | |
The economy is the dog that hasn't barked, we haven't seen the | :56:06. | :56:08. | |
Chancellor during this entire campaign, he is the scarlet | :56:09. | :56:12. | |
Pimpernel of the campaign. Whether it is because Theresa May is keeping | :56:13. | :56:15. | |
him locked in a box because she's going to sack him after the election | :56:16. | :56:19. | |
depending on the size of the majority who knows. But I think the | :56:20. | :56:23. | |
electorate should hear from the Chancellor of the Exchequer during | :56:24. | :56:27. | |
the campaign, can you remember one single interview he's done in this | :56:28. | :56:30. | |
campaign because I'm darned if I can. He did in early one on the | :56:31. | :56:38. | |
Today programme. And there was that joint interview whether Labour sons | :56:39. | :56:41. | |
did not add up and she would not endorse. All bets are off because of | :56:42. | :56:47. | |
Brexit. It's like a bomb going off in the general world of politics | :56:48. | :56:54. | |
that blows everything apart. And you've had all of the other events. | :56:55. | :57:02. | |
You've got to take into account that people are feeling jangly and | :57:03. | :57:08. | |
disorientated. It was the Brexit election and it has barely come up! | :57:09. | :57:13. | |
Go on, Iain. You are right, and I said to my Tory friends, why are you | :57:14. | :57:17. | |
not getting Brexit back on the agenda. That is where you can score | :57:18. | :57:21. | |
a big majority in this election. They tried but they don't have | :57:22. | :57:25. | |
anything new to say that they haven't said before. I think they | :57:26. | :57:30. | |
help for Jean-Claude Juncker to say something controversial but he's | :57:31. | :57:34. | |
kept remarkably silent in the last couple of days. But given what | :57:35. | :57:38. | |
happened in London over the weekend and in Manchester I detect that | :57:39. | :57:41. | |
there are a lot of people thinking about security in the last couple of | :57:42. | :57:45. | |
days and you might think that if they did they would automatically be | :57:46. | :57:48. | |
more inclined to vote Conservative. I am not sure that is entirely | :57:49. | :57:53. | |
happening, certainly on my radio phone ins I find this huge | :57:54. | :57:57. | |
enthusiasm among floating voters now for Jeremy Corbyn. Some say they | :57:58. | :58:01. | |
will vote Tory because of the security issue, they feel safer with | :58:02. | :58:05. | |
Theresa May. But it's not the overwhelming majority that you might | :58:06. | :58:11. | |
expect. Yes, it has been a messy election. Theresa May's high point | :58:12. | :58:16. | |
was that fight with Jean-Claude Juncker and his statement about, go | :58:17. | :58:20. | |
away, you horrible Europeans which took to that great local election | :58:21. | :58:25. | |
result. Since the manifestos, and I don't endorse that view Paul Howes | :58:26. | :58:29. | |
of the Labour manifesto being magnificent, a smorgasbord of money | :58:30. | :58:34. | |
and promises. We lurched about talking about this policy and that | :58:35. | :58:37. | |
policy and then as Iain says moved on to the security issue towards the | :58:38. | :58:43. | |
end where police cuts comes up again which is unfortunate because Diane | :58:44. | :58:48. | |
Abbott messed up... Paul, quickly. And is not just the security | :58:49. | :58:53. | |
problem, we feel under attack and very bruised and I think that Mass | :58:54. | :58:57. | |
psychology of sadness and concern will never play into point scoring | :58:58. | :59:00. | |
beyond what is reasonably acceptable. And | :59:01. | :59:12. | |
we have got to that. It has made it an exceptional campaign, and it has | :59:13. | :59:15. | |
been exceptional in other ways. Thank you all, next time we meet we | :59:16. | :59:16. | |
will know the result. Well, that is it for this evening - | :59:17. | :59:22. | |
and for this campaign. Now there is no Newsnight tomorrow - | :59:23. | :59:25. | |
we're not missing much - just the day of the James Comey | :59:26. | :59:30. | |
testimony to Congress But we know that in 24 hours | :59:31. | :59:32. | |
from now, the only thing to do will be to speculate | :59:33. | :59:36. | |
about the accuracy of the exit poll and you will be in good | :59:37. | :59:39. | |
hands on that front. So in the meantime we leave | :59:40. | :59:41. | |
you with a reminder that this isn't Let's leave the last word | :59:42. | :59:45. | |
to the others, and we'll see | :59:46. | :59:50. |