29/06/2017 Newsnight


29/06/2017

The latest on the Grenfell Tower fire, the 20th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong, and a look at whether the iPhone is good for people. With Evan Davis.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 29/06/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Grenfell residents wonder whether this man, picked to run

:00:00.:00:09.

the inquiry into the fire, is going to run away

:00:10.:00:11.

From my brief meetings with residents of the tower

:00:12.:00:18.

and local people, it's quite clear that many of them will have evidence

:00:19.:00:21.

to give that will be of great value to the inquiry.

:00:22.:00:28.

The question is whether this is to be an inquiry into the fire,

:00:29.:00:31.

or into the dysfunctions of a society that allowed

:00:32.:00:33.

We'll ask what it will take for the inquiry to earn

:00:34.:00:37.

the confidence of those affected by it.

:00:38.:00:41.

Feeling like you haven't had a pay rise in a while?

:00:42.:00:44.

Can the chief economist at the Bank of England explain

:00:45.:00:46.

20 years ago he was waving goodbye to the British colony.

:00:47.:00:51.

Today, the last Governor of Hong Kong gives us his view

:00:52.:00:54.

on Xino-British diplomatic relations, and has this to say

:00:55.:00:57.

You should feel rather sad for him because he's been here several years

:00:58.:01:05.

and he doesn't know the difference between democracy and a wet haddock.

:01:06.:01:08.

Hard to believe but the iPhone is about to be ten years old.

:01:09.:01:11.

It's undeniably useful, but how do we really feel

:01:12.:01:13.

It's like a really narcissistic, clingy girlfriend who always wants

:01:14.:01:26.

my attention! Everybody thinks we need

:01:27.:01:34.

to learn the lessons And responsibility for drawing up

:01:35.:01:37.

the right lessons rests primarily on the shoulders of one man -

:01:38.:01:42.

Sir Martin Moore-Bick, a 70-year-old former commercial

:01:43.:01:45.

lawyer and Appeal Court judge. He went to the site of the fire

:01:46.:01:47.

today and met residents, But - and it's a big one -

:01:48.:01:50.

he then downplayed expectations of what his inquiry might cover

:01:51.:01:55.

and how quickly it could report. Now, I'm well aware

:01:56.:02:02.

that the residents and the local people want a much broader

:02:03.:02:06.

investigation and I can fully Whether my inquiry is the right

:02:07.:02:09.

way in which to achieve that I'm more doubtful,

:02:10.:02:16.

and I'll give that some thought and in due course

:02:17.:02:19.

make a recommendation, but there may be other ways

:02:20.:02:22.

in which that desire for an investigation can be

:02:23.:02:25.

satisfied otherwise than through Well, after the inadequacy

:02:26.:02:28.

of the early response to the fire, and the problems in the child abuse

:02:29.:02:35.

inquiry, it is going to be pretty important for this one

:02:36.:02:38.

to have the confidence of the survivors of the fire

:02:39.:02:41.

and the families of the deceased. And they do not merely want

:02:42.:02:44.

another review of cladding. They think they were ignored

:02:45.:02:47.

when they were warning of problems. For them, this is a case

:02:48.:02:50.

of the authorities on trial. For them, those authorities

:02:51.:02:53.

give the impression To make that point, tonight

:02:54.:02:55.

a meeting of the Cabinet of the Kensington and Chelsea Council

:02:56.:03:01.

collapsed in disarray, as the leader left with his colleagues

:03:02.:03:04.

after the press were allowed in. That was after having secured an

:03:05.:03:13.

injunction to watch proceedings. That was nothing whatsoever to do

:03:14.:03:18.

with the new inquiry Chair, but has Sir Martin Moore-Bick lost

:03:19.:03:21.

the confidence of With me now are residents

:03:22.:03:23.

of the estate of the Grenfell Tower And former Lord Chancellor

:03:24.:03:27.

Charlie Falconer. Welcome. I know you were in the

:03:28.:03:41.

meeting with the judge today. Yes, he held a few. I was in the first he

:03:42.:03:48.

held at 10am. What was your first impression? He's a nice guy but he

:03:49.:03:52.

didn't inspire any confidence, to be honest. I was a bit sceptical when

:03:53.:03:58.

his name was leaked in the press, in the media, last night. I was doing

:03:59.:04:02.

some research on him. The cases he was involved in did not inspire

:04:03.:04:09.

confidence in me either. But you met him and he knew he had a job to sell

:04:10.:04:13.

himself to you to some extent, I'm sure. What did he say that gave you

:04:14.:04:20.

reservation? For a start, he seems to already be saying that the terms

:04:21.:04:24.

of the inquiry would be extremely narrow, and yet supposedly they

:04:25.:04:28.

haven't been decided or solidified yet. So that gave us a big concern.

:04:29.:04:37.

His background gave me the concern. Insurance and commercial law. That

:04:38.:04:40.

doesn't inspire confidence in me at all. What other questions you feel

:04:41.:04:46.

an inquiry needs to look at that you feel might be brushed aside? Well,

:04:47.:04:52.

it seems this judge is giving us the impression it's going to be just

:04:53.:04:56.

about what started the fire and what caused it, but we want to know what

:04:57.:05:02.

led to it as well. So, you know, the circumstances, the political things

:05:03.:05:05.

that allowed the cladding to go on. The regulations. Not just the

:05:06.:05:12.

cladding but whose job it was to get it right? Absolutely. What is the

:05:13.:05:18.

fear here? Are people worried about a cover-up? Is that your fear? It's

:05:19.:05:24.

not just my fear, it's the fear of everyone. I'm not a conspiracy

:05:25.:05:28.

theorist but the way the authorities have been behaving since the

:05:29.:05:31.

beginning of this tragedy is appalling and it has appalled my

:05:32.:05:35.

neighbours. There was absolutely no response on the ground on the first

:05:36.:05:39.

night. The fire crews couldn't get to the location, they couldn't put

:05:40.:05:42.

out the fire because they didn't have the correct equipment. Some of

:05:43.:05:48.

them then ran into the fire block without -- the tower block without

:05:49.:05:51.

gas masks or helmets on because they were so keen to get up. It's a

:05:52.:05:57.

litany of failures and it's gone back several years. The gas pipes

:05:58.:06:02.

running up the building. We do feel there has been a managed decline.

:06:03.:06:06.

There was application for demolition of the tower in 2014 so we do feel

:06:07.:06:11.

they wanted us out anyway. All of that should be in the view of the

:06:12.:06:17.

inquiry. Yes. It seems they were negligent because they didn't want

:06:18.:06:23.

us there anyway. But they had renovated it? But that is because it

:06:24.:06:26.

was an eyesore for those in the area. Charlie Falconer, there is an

:06:27.:06:33.

enormous amount of suspicion. Trust is the most important thing. What

:06:34.:06:35.

was your reaction when the judge came out and said he was going to

:06:36.:06:40.

disappoint the residents with the scope of his inquiry? I'm worried

:06:41.:06:44.

about that and what these two are saying about the scope of the

:06:45.:06:47.

inquiry seems to me to be absolutely right. It can't be, to use your

:06:48.:06:52.

language, to just be a review of the cladding. It has to go right back to

:06:53.:06:57.

explain how we ended up both with some regulations that don't appear

:06:58.:07:01.

to be effective, and also even if the regulations were effective, and

:07:02.:07:05.

I don't know if they were all weren't, how will they enforced? If

:07:06.:07:11.

the terms of reference don't allow the legitimate questions that

:07:12.:07:14.

Thomasina has raised about the build up over time of the situation and

:07:15.:07:20.

then that Joe has raised about, how did the emergency services proved to

:07:21.:07:23.

be so ill-equipped to deal with the fire, then I would agree with both

:07:24.:07:30.

of them. The terms of reference have been set. And they are right in the

:07:31.:07:34.

way they are putting it. I thought the issue was about, you know, going

:07:35.:07:39.

right back into the political system, which the judge can't deal

:07:40.:07:44.

with, but both the areas these two are dealing with the right areas to

:07:45.:07:51.

focus on. I understand what Joe is saying about the insurance and

:07:52.:07:55.

commercial background. I don't know him personally but I've worked with

:07:56.:07:59.

him over 30 years. He is a man who will be able to deal with what will

:08:00.:08:03.

inevitably be a whole range of vested interests, like national

:08:04.:08:06.

government, the local authority, trying to make it as complicated as

:08:07.:08:11.

possible. You need somebody who is both sympathetic and gets the trust

:08:12.:08:15.

of the people but also is able to cut through it. This is the problem

:08:16.:08:21.

I'm facing. We've put out a statement to Theresa May to consult

:08:22.:08:25.

us with the appointment of the judge. She hasn't consulted us or

:08:26.:08:29.

responded to us and it looks like a foregone conclusion that she's done

:08:30.:08:34.

this. That is very interesting. What is the normal procedure? Is there

:08:35.:08:37.

some legal principle that you don't talk to victims in the picking of

:08:38.:08:42.

the judge? The normal principle, and with the judge in a court case, is

:08:43.:08:50.

that you can't negotiate with the parties, and this is not a court

:08:51.:08:55.

case but it is one where it is an inquiry with a judge appointed in

:08:56.:08:59.

effect by the Lord Chief Justice. Is there is a -- if there is a problem

:09:00.:09:03.

with the judge then he should be replaced but my own view, and you've

:09:04.:09:09.

got the broad scope right, and if that is not reflected in the terms

:09:10.:09:11.

of reference it would be a problem, but give Sir Martin Moore bit a

:09:12.:09:20.

chance. -- Sir Martin Moore-Bick. He said he didn't feel that those

:09:21.:09:27.

issues could be covered. Why was that going to inspire confidence? He

:09:28.:09:32.

didn't sell us to a single one of us. There were ten of us there. The

:09:33.:09:36.

more I found out, the less I am willing and able, and the nail in

:09:37.:09:41.

his coffin was his decision in the Westminster case, where he sent that

:09:42.:09:46.

poor family to Milton Keynes. Did you go in open-minded, though? You

:09:47.:09:49.

don't know what the legalities of that case were, so did you go in

:09:50.:09:54.

open-minded? I went in in the way anyone would go in. I had questions

:09:55.:10:01.

and I expected honest answers, and the answer is, I believe they were

:10:02.:10:04.

honest, but I don't believe they were satisfactory. I understand what

:10:05.:10:08.

you are saying. I ask you to give him a bit more of a chance. I

:10:09.:10:13.

understand you are suspicious... It's not only him who is the

:10:14.:10:17.

problem. It's Theresa May. She hasn't responded and it seems she's

:10:18.:10:21.

already decided, and that makes us believe that the terms of reference

:10:22.:10:27.

have already been decided as well. Taylor inquiry. It ensured

:10:28.:10:34.

loudspeakers were loud enough to be heard everywhere, very sensible

:10:35.:10:37.

conclusions on a technical standpoint. Did it lead to any

:10:38.:10:42.

prosecutions? It didn't. What does he need to do? He's got to get your

:10:43.:10:47.

confidence and that means listen to what you're saying. What I've heard

:10:48.:10:51.

tonight is reasonable about what the terms of reference should be, and

:10:52.:10:54.

then he's got to deliver quickly a good report that explains right from

:10:55.:10:58.

the beginning how this happened. Thank you, all of you.

:10:59.:11:03.

Well, think about joining the Government.

:11:04.:11:06.

As expected, it managed to get its Queen's Speech

:11:07.:11:08.

through the Commons today, but the margin was inevitably fine.

:11:09.:11:11.

The ayes to the right, 323, the noes to the left, 309.

:11:12.:11:15.

So the ayes have it, the ayes have it.

:11:16.:11:18.

A measure of how easily business can be disrupted.

:11:19.:11:31.

And for confirmation, there was the fact that

:11:32.:11:33.

to get the Queen's Speech through unscathed, the Government

:11:34.:11:36.

had to accept a proposal from Stella Creasy offering

:11:37.:11:38.

taxpayer-funded abortions in England for women from Northern Ireland.

:11:39.:11:43.

Backbench MPs suddenly have leverage and the Government suddenly has

:11:44.:11:46.

But today was also awkward for Labour, with several shadow

:11:47.:11:50.

ministers being sacked and one resigning.

:11:51.:11:54.

We're all struggling to get used to this new normal.

:11:55.:11:56.

Nick Watt watched the day at Westminster.

:11:57.:12:04.

Let's talk about Labour first, because we all thought it was rosy

:12:05.:12:10.

in the house of Labour at the moment! Yes, we thought the focus

:12:11.:12:14.

would be solely on Theresa May and then Jeremy Corbyn ended up sacking

:12:15.:12:18.

three of his frontbenchers. The reason for that was because they had

:12:19.:12:22.

defied the Labour leadership to table an amendment put forward by

:12:23.:12:27.

Chuka Umunna, which would have committed the UK to remaining in the

:12:28.:12:31.

single market and Customs union. This was roundly defeated by 101 to

:12:32.:12:38.

322 after Labour whips instructed their MPs to abstain. I've picked up

:12:39.:12:44.

quite a lot of anger amongst pro-European Labour MPs. They say

:12:45.:12:47.

this was a vanity vote by Chuka Umunna that handed a gift to

:12:48.:12:51.

Brexiteers, who stayed look at the heavy defeat. And these pro-European

:12:52.:12:56.

Labour MPs also say, why did he have to table this amendment when the

:12:57.:13:03.

official Labour one called on the government to negotiate the exact

:13:04.:13:05.

same benefit on the customs union and single market. But they are

:13:06.:13:11.

defiant, saying their tactics today were about putting pressure on the

:13:12.:13:15.

Labour leadership to go one step further and agree with them that the

:13:16.:13:18.

UK should remain in the customs union and single market. OK.

:13:19.:13:24.

Interesting day for Labour. What about the Tories? It was a pretty

:13:25.:13:28.

fine margin to get your Queen's Speech through. As you say, the

:13:29.:13:33.

Magic number for Theresa May is 14. That's the majority she had in the

:13:34.:13:37.

final vote that established and entrenched her government. That's

:13:38.:13:41.

what she got after her deal with the DUP. I spoke to one senior Tory who

:13:42.:13:46.

said to me, that's hardly a respectable majority but it is a

:13:47.:13:49.

workable one and the government can carry on. But the rapid move and

:13:50.:13:53.

announcement by the government that it would fund abortions in England

:13:54.:13:57.

for women from Northern Ireland illustrates a crucial point about

:13:58.:14:03.

this Government. If you can muster all the opposition parties and then

:14:04.:14:08.

persuade to seven Tory MPs to join you, then Theresa May has to act,

:14:09.:14:12.

and supporters of a so-called soft Brexit, they had a setback today but

:14:13.:14:15.

they hope that that point will eventually work in their favour.

:14:16.:14:17.

Thank you. The backdrop to all this is a sense

:14:18.:14:21.

of national frustration, That's perhaps why we're in hung

:14:22.:14:24.

parliament territory at all. And when we look at what makes

:14:25.:14:28.

people frustrated, it's perhaps the fact that living

:14:29.:14:30.

standards are stagnant. In short, Britain is tired

:14:31.:14:32.

of austerity and wants a pay rise. And that's not surprising given

:14:33.:14:35.

the long squeeze on wages that we've We'll hear what the Bank of England

:14:36.:14:38.

says about that shortly, but first our business editor

:14:39.:14:41.

Helen Thomas sets out what we know - Sometimes it feels like everything

:14:42.:14:57.

in the world of work is speeding up. The mantra is two more, and more

:14:58.:15:02.

quickly. But one thing is stuck on go slow. And that unfortunately is

:15:03.:15:15.

wages. The public sector pay cap is hitting recruitment and retention

:15:16.:15:18.

right across the public sector. It has been a week of political

:15:19.:15:24.

wrangling over whether the cap on public sector pay rises should be

:15:25.:15:29.

lifted but this is not just about the public sector, it is about the

:15:30.:15:34.

whole economy. He is real wage growth, pay rises adjusted for

:15:35.:15:37.

inflation, and slumped after the financial crisis. Very low inflation

:15:38.:15:42.

meant a better time around 2015. Then the vote to leave the EU,

:15:43.:15:49.

inflation rose sharply. Living standards are again in decline. But

:15:50.:15:53.

inflation isn't really the nub of this problem. The bigger puzzle is

:15:54.:15:58.

why workers and managing to push for a pay rise, despite very low levels

:15:59.:16:03.

of unemployment. Now economic theory would tell us that low unemployment

:16:04.:16:08.

puts workers in a stronger position. Employers find it hard to fill

:16:09.:16:14.

vacancies and yet UK unemployment is up 4.6%, the lowest level since the

:16:15.:16:20.

1970s. But wage growth is sluggish. In fact worse than sluggish.

:16:21.:16:23.

Recently it has been heading in the wrong direction. So why has this

:16:24.:16:31.

relationship broken down? The crisis spooked workers and their employers.

:16:32.:16:35.

Now Brexit is churning the corporate walkers. Roger Waters. If workers

:16:36.:16:40.

are reluctant to move jobs they miss out on one way to get a hefty rise.

:16:41.:16:47.

On one side you have the employers that also have the uncertainty of

:16:48.:16:51.

demand and of uncertain increases in costs, given the exchange rate,

:16:52.:16:57.

falling, that are likely to hold on to wage demands, and be a bit more

:16:58.:17:03.

careful. Next up the economic headache. Productivity growth has

:17:04.:17:11.

been nearly as disappointing as earnings. This is one measure output

:17:12.:17:17.

per hour worked. Expansion helps living standards for decades and

:17:18.:17:21.

then it flat lined and no one is entirely sure why. Everyone agrees

:17:22.:17:29.

that dismal pay and dismal productivity are linked but which

:17:30.:17:31.

causes the other? Well it is not that simple. Productivity is

:17:32.:17:37.

obviously key in the to how much we can pay ourselves, what the wages

:17:38.:17:41.

that people receive because in the end what we produce as a country

:17:42.:17:45.

determines how much we can pay ourselves. But the relationship

:17:46.:17:49.

between pay and productivity is more complicated and is sometimes to

:17:50.:17:52.

waste so sometimes when pay increases firms respond by investing

:17:53.:17:56.

in machines, and skinning their workforce and that leads to higher

:17:57.:18:00.

productivity. It's not just that higher productivity can lead to

:18:01.:18:02.

higher pay, it is not just that higher productivity can lead to

:18:03.:18:09.

higher pay, it is perhaps the changes mean that the headline

:18:10.:18:13.

unemployment rates does not really reflect what is going on. This is

:18:14.:18:20.

co-working. In this office freelancers and entrepreneurs can

:18:21.:18:23.

join up by the month, space to work with craft beer, yoga classes and

:18:24.:18:29.

events laid on. Self-employment has risen, nearly doubling its share of

:18:30.:18:35.

the workforce since 1980. But so has part-time working, temporary work

:18:36.:18:39.

and zero hours contracts. This includes the so-called gig economy,

:18:40.:18:45.

types of jobs which offer no guaranteed hours, little career

:18:46.:18:49.

progression or job security. It means an employer could offer more

:18:50.:18:54.

hours instead of a pay rise or a better contract. So what hope is

:18:55.:19:01.

there that wages get moving again? That is the question for the British

:19:02.:19:05.

market, and actually for the British economy and British families over

:19:06.:19:08.

the next few years. But some things we know for certain, wages are at

:19:09.:19:11.

the bottom of the Labour market because of a fast rising national

:19:12.:19:15.

minimum wage, those will go up significantly over the next few

:19:16.:19:19.

years. The big unknown is what happens to the top 80% of workers

:19:20.:19:24.

not affected by the minimum wage. Those people are currently

:19:25.:19:35.

seeing big squeeze is on their pay packets, what happens to them does

:19:36.:19:39.

depend on does Brexit scare firms or do they think that a big opportunity

:19:40.:19:41.

is there and they get their confidence back and the workers get

:19:42.:19:43.

their confidence back? Wage tension hasn't vanished, of course not but

:19:44.:19:46.

the lower unemployment gets without wages rising, the more likely that

:19:47.:19:50.

longer term tougher to fix factors are standing between British workers

:19:51.:19:51.

and their pay rise. Helen Thomas. Well, earlier today I sat down

:19:52.:19:57.

at the Bank of England with the chief economist there,

:19:58.:19:59.

Andy Haldane. He has been in the news lately,

:20:00.:20:01.

having given a speech that suggested he might vote for a rate

:20:02.:20:04.

rise later this year. He didn't want to say anything

:20:05.:20:06.

more about rates today, And why he thinks it's flat lined

:20:07.:20:17.

for the better part of a decade. What have been the drivers, there is

:20:18.:20:22.

no single factor but I would say among the most important has been

:20:23.:20:29.

the fact that at the same time as real take-home pay has flat lined,

:20:30.:20:35.

so to has the measured productive capacity of the economy. Typically,

:20:36.:20:40.

we expect that as that productive capacity grows over time, that gets

:20:41.:20:48.

mirrored in pay increases. So we are looking for one of, if not the

:20:49.:20:52.

biggest contributing cause, it is the accompanying flat-lining of not

:20:53.:20:59.

just the UK's but many of the economy is's productive capacity

:21:00.:21:04.

over ten years or so. It is extraordinary because we tend to

:21:05.:21:07.

think we get a little better at everything, people will ask if we

:21:08.:21:12.

have run out of innovation. This is not about stagnating in innovation,

:21:13.:21:17.

in the main. When we talk about, the rise of the robots, the fourth

:21:18.:21:22.

industrial Revolution, it is there. It is there, but only for a subset

:21:23.:21:27.

of terms. Only for that 1% of perhaps 5% of firms who are taking

:21:28.:21:34.

the productivity high road. The root cause of the stagnation in

:21:35.:21:41.

productivity and in pay is that long, lower tail of firms, they are

:21:42.:21:50.

taking the low productivity road. This is like 95%! A sizeable chunk,

:21:51.:21:55.

at least three quarters... And they just employing more cheap Labour,

:21:56.:21:59.

squeezing them Eberhard but not equipping it in the best ways or

:22:00.:22:03.

innovating or thinking of the things to do and new products to sell.

:22:04.:22:08.

Quite so. And they can't afford to pay more because they don't have

:22:09.:22:13.

more revenue. This long tail, and to be clear, it's not a crisis

:22:14.:22:16.

phenomenon, if you look at those companies, that long tail, they have

:22:17.:22:21.

been with us back-ups for a couple of decades. Every country on the

:22:22.:22:25.

planet has long tail firms, it just appears to be somewhat longer in the

:22:26.:22:30.

UK and elsewhere. And there are companies, as you say, that perhaps

:22:31.:22:34.

not investing sufficiently in the skills of workers, perhaps not

:22:35.:22:39.

investing sufficiently in machines and automation, so it's not the

:22:40.:22:49.

champions we need to worry about. It's the mediocre. There's a natural

:22:50.:22:53.

temptation to gravitate towards the new and the shiny, let's seize the

:22:54.:23:00.

next Tesla, Google, or Apple, and say, in terms of boosting the

:23:01.:23:02.

numbers you would probably get much more purchase out of incremental

:23:03.:23:08.

improvements from that long-tail of companies. Let's talk about public

:23:09.:23:12.

sector wages, there's a huge debate over public sector pay, it's been

:23:13.:23:16.

going up at 1% a year for the last five years or so. That does factor

:23:17.:23:22.

significantly into the deliberations when figuring out how great are

:23:23.:23:29.

underlying inflationary pressures in the economy. We have been repeatedly

:23:30.:23:35.

surprised about how weak pay growth has been, not just in the public

:23:36.:23:39.

sector but in the Private sector as well. And if anything, pay growth

:23:40.:23:45.

over the past 12 months has been falling rather than picking up,

:23:46.:23:49.

which has taken us and indeed the rest of the world somewhat by

:23:50.:23:55.

surprise, given that over that same period, jobs growth has remained

:23:56.:23:59.

very buoyant and unemployment has kept on falling. So this way is with

:24:00.:24:05.

us. Of course it is a factor that has contributed to rates in the UK

:24:06.:24:10.

remaining, they are currently at very low levels, and watching

:24:11.:24:16.

closely for any signs of pay bigging up. That is one of the key

:24:17.:24:21.

indicators we look at when judging that pay picking up. To be clear,

:24:22.:24:26.

public paint matters, it's not just the Private sector. I know that you

:24:27.:24:31.

don't particularly want to step on the interest rate landmine at this

:24:32.:24:35.

point. But it would be interesting for people to think about where they

:24:36.:24:39.

might be in five or ten years' time, if they are buying a house thinking

:24:40.:24:44.

about the long-term average on the bank website which goes back 300

:24:45.:24:50.

years is 5%. Does that constitute a guide to the long-term norm? What

:24:51.:24:53.

would you advise people to plan on, to think of rates of the sort of 5%

:24:54.:25:01.

level or the .5% level? You are right in pointing out that the rate

:25:02.:25:07.

is currently, and if you believe financial markets, prospectively set

:25:08.:25:13.

to remain pretty low for a long time. Not just the lowest in the

:25:14.:25:17.

last 300 years, probably the lowest in the last several thousand years,

:25:18.:25:21.

I would say. As and when rates begin to rise in the UK, they are likely

:25:22.:25:27.

to do so in a gradual way. And to a limited extent, by which we mean the

:25:28.:25:32.

numbers that may have been in people's heads, from the past, are

:25:33.:25:38.

probably on the high side relative to what we might expect in the

:25:39.:25:43.

future. Let me not but a number on that! Squeeze you on that. But

:25:44.:25:47.

Limited and gradual is the name of the game. I would squeeze you on

:25:48.:26:00.

that. Andrew Haldane, thank you very much -- I won't squeeze you on that.

:26:01.:26:03.

20 years ago, the British top brass in Hong Kong handed the keys

:26:04.:26:06.

of the province over to the Chinese and boarded the Royal

:26:07.:26:09.

Yacht Britannia to leave the colony behind.

:26:10.:26:11.

The exact anniversary is at 5pm our time tomorrow.

:26:12.:26:13.

The handover was - and is - a big deal for China,

:26:14.:26:16.

and President Xi Jinping is in Hong Kong to

:26:17.:26:18.

It's his first visit since becoming leader in 2012.

:26:19.:26:23.

Back then, when former president Hu Jintao visited

:26:24.:26:27.

for the 15-year celebrations, he was met with hundreds

:26:28.:26:29.

of thousands of protesters, marching against what they saw

:26:30.:26:31.

And there were mass protests again in 2014.

:26:32.:26:40.

The so-called umnbrella protests, with calls for more democracy

:26:41.:26:44.

and protests at the idea of China pre-screening candidates

:26:45.:26:51.

for elections for the post of Chief Executive of Hong Kong.

:26:52.:26:54.

Hong Kong never saw itself as just another Chinese city.

:26:55.:26:59.

In a 1984 agreement between China and Britain, China committed itself

:27:00.:27:03.

to the principle of "one country, two systems", granting

:27:04.:27:11.

the city its own legal system, limited democracy with multiple

:27:12.:27:13.

political parties, and rights like freedom

:27:14.:27:14.

But has China reneged on the letter, or at least

:27:15.:27:18.

Most notorious is the case of five booksellers who had

:27:19.:27:23.

allegedly sold banned books, and then went missing, apparently

:27:24.:27:26.

You may remember that the last British Governor of Hong Kong

:27:27.:27:42.

As Governor, he tried to plant some democratic seeds

:27:43.:27:45.

in the Hong Kong garden, hoping they'd grow

:27:46.:27:47.

He has a well-timed memoir out this week, so I went

:27:48.:27:51.

to meet him this afternoon, to talk about Hong Kong, China,

:27:52.:27:54.

and because he's a former chairman of the Tory Party,

:27:55.:27:56.

First, though, has China let the people of Hong Kong down

:27:57.:28:00.

Initially it did something which was sad but predictable.

:28:01.:28:06.

It choked off the sort of democratic developments which had been taking

:28:07.:28:09.

place and which were perfectly satisfactory because people

:28:10.:28:13.

More recently, particularly under President Xi Jinping,

:28:14.:28:19.

I think it parallels his crackdown on dissidents in mainland China.

:28:20.:28:22.

There's been a growing squeeze on Hong Kong's windpipe,

:28:23.:28:26.

attacks on the judiciary, attacks on the rule of law,

:28:27.:28:29.

abduction of people on the streets and a general atmosphere

:28:30.:28:33.

in which Beijing's Office in Hong Kong tries to

:28:34.:28:37.

The Chinese ambassador to the UK was on the radio this morning

:28:38.:28:44.

and was rebutting criticisms of the sort of anti-democratic

:28:45.:28:47.

nature of Hong Kong by talking about British democracy and in fact

:28:48.:28:50.

Should we laugh, should we think, should we ponder?

:28:51.:28:54.

Yes, you should feel rather sad for him because he's been

:28:55.:28:56.

here several years and he doesn't know the difference

:28:57.:28:58.

I shouldn't say that about ambassadors but he is.

:28:59.:29:07.

And I heard him this morning saying things

:29:08.:29:10.

which, were I Boris Johnson, I might describe as porkies.

:29:11.:29:15.

And beginning by asserting that what happens in Hong Kong

:29:16.:29:19.

is entirely a matter for the government of China,

:29:20.:29:24.

as though the joint declaration, the treaty between Britain

:29:25.:29:27.

and China, was simply a single declaration by the Chinese.

:29:28.:29:31.

It is actually a treaty lodged at the UN.

:29:32.:29:36.

Looking at politics in the UK today, it's hard to think of who you would

:29:37.:29:40.

really feel is your sort of beacon of leadership, and who you would

:29:41.:29:43.

We're partly in this mess because of two catastrophic

:29:44.:29:55.

decisions taken by Conservative Prime Ministers, and we sometimes

:29:56.:30:00.

kid ourselves that we're well governed.

:30:01.:30:04.

Internationally, nationalism, which is a denial of the importance

:30:05.:30:12.

these days of international co-operation, has been

:30:13.:30:16.

In America - Make America Great Again.

:30:17.:30:21.

In Europe, happily, Macron, Angela Merkel win the elections

:30:22.:30:32.

in Germany, the Dutch have done well in seeing off Geert Wilders,

:30:33.:30:35.

so in mainland Europe, it's gone pretty well.

:30:36.:30:37.

But we're left with the residues of English nationalism.

:30:38.:30:42.

Isn't it the case that the Tory Party is one party,

:30:43.:30:45.

I think both the main parties are two parties

:30:46.:30:49.

I think there's a moderate mainstream Conservative Party

:30:50.:30:58.

and an English nationalist right-wing party.

:30:59.:31:01.

It's a sort of Ukip-lite and a sort of economically liberal party,

:31:02.:31:04.

There's a party that believes in market economics and there's

:31:05.:31:10.

a party that believes in a market society, which is an

:31:11.:31:12.

In the Labour Party, you've got the Corbynistas,

:31:13.:31:18.

who have clearly been strengthened by the dire campaign

:31:19.:31:22.

that the Conservative Party fought in the election,

:31:23.:31:25.

which suddenly turned this sort of quite amiable guy

:31:26.:31:29.

with extraordinarily old-fashioned, out-of-date views into

:31:30.:31:37.

But let's talk more about your party, because it is

:31:38.:31:42.

I mean, would you basically favour a politics where we let these

:31:43.:31:46.

parties disentangle themselves into their component

:31:47.:31:55.

parts and you had, say, electoral reform, and then the voters...

:31:56.:31:57.

Like in France, actually - remember, the French had

:31:58.:31:59.

They could vote for populist right, left, centre.

:32:00.:32:02.

I think it's very difficult to know what it is about our party system

:32:03.:32:06.

Because the number of people who are active members of parties

:32:07.:32:10.

Well, until Corbyn came along, and now it's shot up.

:32:11.:32:21.

Yes, but with a particular age group - you have to notice

:32:22.:32:24.

the number of people under 40, 45, who are voting for Corbyn.

:32:25.:32:27.

But when I was chairman of the Conservative Party in 1990-92

:32:28.:32:29.

Today I should think it's 150,000 on a good night.

:32:30.:32:34.

The parties have been hollowed out in terms of mass membership,

:32:35.:32:39.

so most of them now have fewer members than the Royal Society

:32:40.:32:41.

They've been hollowed out in that sense, and yet they have more

:32:42.:32:49.

authority electing leaders, determining policies,

:32:50.:32:51.

You mean the members have had more authority?

:32:52.:32:54.

So I don't quite know where it goes from here.

:32:55.:33:01.

What I think remains undoubtedly the case is there is a majority

:33:02.:33:04.

in this country for, as it were, wets, to borrow

:33:05.:33:09.

I think there is a majority for welfare democracy,

:33:10.:33:18.

for market forces but not too much of them,

:33:19.:33:22.

for recognising that the state isn't an enemy but you don't give

:33:23.:33:25.

the state too much to do in terms of industrial management.

:33:26.:33:31.

I bet there's a majority among people like me now for seeing

:33:32.:33:35.

an increase in taxes for people like me, because I certainly don't

:33:36.:33:39.

want to see further rounds of cuts in public spending.

:33:40.:33:44.

And yet I recognise there's a real problem with the fiscal deficit,

:33:45.:33:47.

which I don't think you can just let go hang, as Mr Corbyn would suggest.

:33:48.:33:51.

One of the things that we're sometimes told,

:33:52.:33:54.

and I think in the end this is the biggest, most important

:33:55.:33:57.

question for the country over the next year, is there's really no

:33:58.:34:00.

There's a hard Brexit or there's no Brexit, but there's

:34:01.:34:04.

That either we reverse this vote, or we go along

:34:05.:34:12.

Because I'm interested in whether you would vote

:34:13.:34:16.

for the kind of Theresa May Brexit when it comes to the Lords.

:34:17.:34:22.

Well, I think at the end of the day, as bishops say, there will have

:34:23.:34:25.

to be a vote in Parliament about whatever terms emerge.

:34:26.:34:32.

And at that point, the electorate, given that I suspect by then

:34:33.:34:37.

the economy won't be looking too good, and the electorate will be

:34:38.:34:40.

able to see that you can't have the same relationship

:34:41.:34:43.

with Europe outside the European Union as you have

:34:44.:34:47.

So I think at that point there may be a significant shift

:34:48.:34:52.

in the public atmosphere, the public views on this.

:34:53.:34:56.

But I don't think you can go into these negotiations

:34:57.:34:58.

on the assumption that they'll turn out badly.

:34:59.:35:02.

I think Philip Hammond is right that we should be aiming now

:35:03.:35:06.

for a transitional period, for staying in as much

:35:07.:35:08.

of the single market and the Customs Union as possible.

:35:09.:35:13.

Both of those things were of course anathema to those who thought

:35:14.:35:16.

the big bloody bold thing to do was to head for the precipice

:35:17.:35:20.

and if we jumped off the precipice, there would be Dunlop mattresses

:35:21.:35:23.

Who would you like to see leading the Conservative Party?

:35:24.:35:29.

Well, if I suggested that, it would damn them immediately!

:35:30.:35:34.

I think Theresa May will lead the Conservative Party

:35:35.:35:38.

until the Conservative Party thinks that it can comfortably find

:35:39.:35:44.

a successor who won't plunge it into either an election

:35:45.:35:46.

I think that dancing on her grave, particularly by people who only

:35:47.:35:55.

the other day were saying that she was if not Teresa

:35:56.:35:57.

of Avila, certainly Theresa of Maidenhead,

:35:58.:36:00.

I think dancing on her grave is particularly unseemly.

:36:01.:36:05.

But in a world you know better than me,

:36:06.:36:07.

in the stock market, I don't

:36:08.:36:10.

think you'd regard her at the moment as a strong hold.

:36:11.:36:18.

I think she's there partly because anything else people

:36:19.:36:20.

Chris Patten talking to me earlier today. His book First Confession is

:36:21.:36:34.

available now. Did you know that sales of chewing

:36:35.:36:36.

gum have plummeted since the iPhone This is apparently because people

:36:37.:36:40.

queueing in supermarkets can now pass the time looking at their phone

:36:41.:36:43.

rather by making impulse purchases. That's just one effect unleashed

:36:44.:36:46.

on the world by Apple's bestseller. Others include selfies,

:36:47.:36:49.

the gig economy, and To that list critics might add

:36:50.:36:51.

shorter attention spans There's no doubt that the iPhone

:36:52.:36:54.

is an extraordinary piece of kit - even to those of us who clung

:36:55.:37:00.

to our Blackberries for some Stephen Smith, who personally

:37:01.:37:03.

nominates the trouser-press, When you think about your iPhone, it

:37:04.:37:16.

is probably the object that you use most in your life. It's the product

:37:17.:37:22.

you have with you all the time. The adverts suggest a mindfulness

:37:23.:37:27.

workshop and devotees hang on every word from the pristine Apple bunker,

:37:28.:37:33.

as if harkening to a guru. We want to make a much better phone.

:37:34.:37:39.

We thought we would create our own immaculate thought cloud about the

:37:40.:37:45.

iPhone. I think it's one of the most marvellous things that's ever been

:37:46.:37:48.

made. There's this wonderful old line about what talent is an talent

:37:49.:37:53.

is the ability to hit a target but then genius is able to see a target

:37:54.:37:58.

no one else has identified. I'm desperately trying not to hell the

:37:59.:38:03.

thing somewhere over there and smash it into 1000 pieces! It's like

:38:04.:38:08.

having the great library of Alexandria to hand. Imagine

:38:09.:38:14.

explaining something like that to my father's generation. He would be

:38:15.:38:19.

mystified! It's like a narcissistic really clingy girlfriend who always

:38:20.:38:23.

wants my attention! The vision behind the iPhone was so

:38:24.:38:26.

ground-breaking that few could quite believe it at first. A pod, a phone

:38:27.:38:42.

and Internet communicator. You getting it? People were talking

:38:43.:38:49.

about the integration of telephone technology and computer technology

:38:50.:38:52.

but they were thinking about vast, clunky equipment, and nobody had

:38:53.:38:58.

seen you could bring these two together into something you could

:38:59.:39:02.

actually put in your pocket. We have the iPhone and its various

:39:03.:39:08.

competitors to thank for the selfie. Posting pictures, seeking likes is

:39:09.:39:14.

surprisingly atavistic behaviour, says one writer. I think the

:39:15.:39:21.

surprising thing about social media is it's such ultramodern technology

:39:22.:39:25.

but it is tapping into very primeval, ancient circuits in the

:39:26.:39:29.

brain. We are a tribal species, a tribal animal, and one of the things

:39:30.:39:33.

that means is that we are constantly preoccupied with our status in the

:39:34.:39:36.

group. Just like the chimpanzees, one of our closest relatives, the

:39:37.:39:42.

state of the humans 's human is constantly in flux and we are

:39:43.:39:49.

constantly preoccupied. -- the state of human is constantly in flux. It

:39:50.:39:53.

is all very tribal. Young people are avid users of smartphones, of

:39:54.:39:58.

course. A new study says over a third of 15-year-olds are extreme

:39:59.:40:03.

Internet users who spent six hours a day online. It also found a clear

:40:04.:40:08.

association between longer periods spent on social media and mental

:40:09.:40:13.

health problems. I think that's a development of smartphones that's

:40:14.:40:16.

really interesting, in that people are able to have their phone in

:40:17.:40:20.

their pocket, looking at it in their bedroom, so their access to the

:40:21.:40:23.

Internet is in a much more private space than it used to so potentially

:40:24.:40:28.

parents will have used the technique of wandering past the screen to see

:40:29.:40:31.

what their child is looking at and if their child is on the phone in

:40:32.:40:35.

the playground or in their own room, the parent can't use that kind of

:40:36.:40:38.

technique any more, so it gives us new challenges as to how we get

:40:39.:40:43.

young people. But it isn't just the youngsters we need to look out for.

:40:44.:40:46.

Some mature iPhone users are struggling to. It always wants to

:40:47.:40:52.

help you. It is sitting there going, look, I could do this, I could do

:40:53.:40:59.

that. Why don't you get me to help? Look, I'm all shiny! No! Silence!

:41:00.:41:05.

Silence! See, whatever happened to silence? It's really good...

:41:06.:41:17.

Steven Smith on the iPhone. We have to go but a quick look at the front

:41:18.:41:21.

page of The Times. They have specific emails on Grenfell cladding

:41:22.:41:27.

looking at cutting costs before the renovation. A specific email, so I

:41:28.:41:31.

think people will follow that up tomorrow.

:41:32.:41:32.

Just before we go, I don't know if you heard that George Osborne

:41:33.:41:35.

announced today he's got yet another new job.

:41:36.:41:37.

He's going to be Professor of Economics at Manchester University

:41:38.:41:39.

in addition to being Editor of the Evening Standard,

:41:40.:41:42.

an advisor to a venture capitalist and after-dinner speaker for hire.

:41:43.:41:44.

In total we think he's now got six jobs!

:41:45.:41:46.

And we wondered what might come next.

:41:47.:41:48.

Friday should be a bit warmer with still a lot of cloud around with

:41:49.:42:30.

outbreaks of rain and

:42:31.:42:31.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS