Browse content similar to 06/07/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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I take pride in the words ich bin eine Berliner. The fundamental | :00:15. | :00:29. | |
question of our time is whether the West has the will to survive. | :00:30. | :00:32. | |
The President says the West may not survive. | :00:33. | :00:34. | |
Is he right, or is he part of the problem? | :00:35. | :00:38. | |
I think the large English speaking democracies, Britain, | :00:39. | :00:40. | |
and the United States, are really moving rapidly | :00:41. | :00:42. | |
We'll discuss how the Alliance can weather these storms. | :00:43. | :00:48. | |
Also tonight, for some Remainers, the cause endures, | :00:49. | :00:50. | |
the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die. | :00:51. | :00:52. | |
The head of the CBI will make the case for a Brexit so soft, | :00:53. | :00:56. | |
And just how close is artificial intelligence? | :00:57. | :01:09. | |
It's literally in the past year we went from a place where it | :01:10. | :01:12. | |
would get it right about 80% of the time to a point where now | :01:13. | :01:15. | |
it's actually achieved human parody and speech recognition. | :01:16. | :01:26. | |
Something may have been lost in translation but Donald Trump | :01:27. | :01:32. | |
spent much of his Presidential campaign proudly proclaiming | :01:33. | :01:34. | |
that Vladimir Putin had described him as a genius. | :01:35. | :01:45. | |
This lofty regard was apparently mutual - | :01:46. | :01:47. | |
with Trump regularly expressing his admiration | :01:48. | :01:48. | |
Today, however, the American President seemed to place his | :01:49. | :01:51. | |
Russian counterpart on the other side of a purported war | :01:52. | :01:54. | |
During a speech in the Polish capital, Warsaw, he called on Russia | :01:55. | :02:00. | |
to stop destabilising Ukraine and other countries and to end | :02:01. | :02:04. | |
support for hostile regimes such as those in Syria and Iran. | :02:05. | :02:08. | |
With the pair due to meet tomorrow at the G20 summit in Hamburg, | :02:09. | :02:11. | |
Newsnight's Diplomatic Editor Mark Urban has been exploring | :02:12. | :02:13. | |
the American President's apocalyptic warning. | :02:14. | :02:25. | |
It's the President's second visit to Europe and today's | :02:26. | :02:28. | |
speech was billed as a big foreign policy moment. | :02:29. | :02:34. | |
Given in Warsaw's Krasinski Square in front of a memorial to the 1944 | :02:35. | :02:38. | |
uprising against the Nazis, an appreciative audience had been | :02:39. | :02:40. | |
It fell to the First Lady to do the warm up. | :02:41. | :02:54. | |
The president of the United States, Donald J Trump. | :02:55. | :03:00. | |
And with that, Trump set out his stall of a West | :03:01. | :03:03. | |
in existential crisis and his formula for success | :03:04. | :03:05. | |
While we will always welcome new citizens who share our values | :03:06. | :03:09. | |
and love our people, our borders will always | :03:10. | :03:11. | |
be closed to terrorism and extremism of any kind. | :03:12. | :03:24. | |
Today, the West is also confronted by the powers that | :03:25. | :03:26. | |
seek to test our will, undermine our confidence | :03:27. | :03:28. | |
To meet new forms of aggression, including propaganda, | :03:29. | :03:38. | |
financial crimes and cyber warfare, we must adapt our alliance | :03:39. | :03:42. | |
to compete effectively in new ways and on all new battlefields. | :03:43. | :03:51. | |
And here, having alluded to the Russian and Chinese threats, | :03:52. | :03:54. | |
he did at last state his commitment to Nato's mutual defence | :03:55. | :03:56. | |
But it was a distinctly Trumpian formula that shed little light | :03:57. | :04:05. | |
on the issue of how the West revives its fortunes economically. | :04:06. | :04:08. | |
A large part of the answer to that question depends on whether Macron | :04:09. | :04:22. | |
and Merkel can reignite the Franco-German motor, | :04:23. | :04:25. | |
rewrite Europe's fiscal rules and really generate growth again | :04:26. | :04:27. | |
That is where the hope lies and, if you like, the glass of champagne | :04:28. | :04:34. | |
is half full at the moment in Paris and in Berlin. | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
Today's speech owes much to White House strategy boss Steve Bannon. | :04:39. | :04:44. | |
You have an expansionist Islam and an expansionist China, right? | :04:45. | :04:47. | |
They are motivated, they are arrogant, | :04:48. | :04:49. | |
they are on the march and they think the Judaeo-Christian West | :04:50. | :04:51. | |
His view of the world revolves around hard power and the need | :04:52. | :04:58. | |
Even so, many more mainstream conservatives | :04:59. | :05:06. | |
I think the president struck the right tone on Polish soil today, | :05:07. | :05:12. | |
a strong reiteration, I think, of the importance | :05:13. | :05:17. | |
of the transatlantic alliance and a reminder of the values that | :05:18. | :05:19. | |
The illiberality of this message and emphasis on religious faith | :05:20. | :05:29. | |
worked well for this Polish audience, but it's out of kilter | :05:30. | :05:31. | |
It was very significant, not only that he chose Poland, | :05:32. | :05:39. | |
you know, which has got that law and justice government, | :05:40. | :05:43. | |
a right-wing government, a very Christian government that | :05:44. | :05:45. | |
refuses to take refugees from the Middle East | :05:46. | :05:47. | |
and is being sued by the EU over that, but it's very significant | :05:48. | :05:50. | |
that he, in his speech in Warsaw, did not use the word democracy once. | :05:51. | :05:55. | |
The President today claimed that billions and billions of extra | :05:56. | :05:58. | |
defence spending was now pouring into Nato as a result | :05:59. | :06:00. | |
So typical transactional Trump, having got what he wanted, | :06:01. | :06:10. | |
he gave the Europeans what he thought they were after. | :06:11. | :06:13. | |
That's all very well, but it hardly builds Western unity. | :06:14. | :06:25. | |
After today's Warsaw event, Hamburg looked very different this | :06:26. | :06:27. | |
evening as the President arrived for a G20 meeting. | :06:28. | :06:32. | |
Violent protests happened pre-Trump, of course, | :06:33. | :06:39. | |
but in tone and substance, the President's message is hardly | :06:40. | :06:41. | |
I'm joined now by Pulitzer prize winning historian, | :06:42. | :06:46. | |
Eric Foner and Susan Glasser - former Foreign Policy editor | :06:47. | :06:48. | |
in chief and the first editor of Politico magazine. | :06:49. | :06:58. | |
Susan, was it significant, D-Link, or how significant was it that the | :06:59. | :07:05. | |
word democracy did not appear at all in that speech? -- do you think. | :07:06. | :07:10. | |
Significant but not a surprise. Me doesn't use the word democracy | :07:11. | :07:14. | |
often. Some people here were likening his speech to a European | :07:15. | :07:22. | |
version of his American carnage and inauguration speech. -- Trump | :07:23. | :07:23. | |
doesn't you do a clash of civilisations, harking | :07:24. | :07:39. | |
back to Samuel Huntington's 1993 work where is spam replaces Russia | :07:40. | :07:44. | |
as the enemy of Western domination in the world. Does that tally with | :07:45. | :07:51. | |
what you heard today? What was interesting was Trump was laying out | :07:52. | :07:55. | |
this apocalyptic vision of the world divided into the forces of light, | :07:56. | :08:01. | |
darkness, and it gives you an insight into what you might call the | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
intellectual origins of Trump's outlook. It may seem absurd to put | :08:06. | :08:11. | |
intellectual and Trump in the same sentence, because he doesn't read | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
books, he has no literature curiosity. But with people like | :08:17. | :08:19. | |
Steve Bannon around him, this is their view of the world, that it has | :08:20. | :08:23. | |
always been these clashes of civilisations. That our whole | :08:24. | :08:29. | |
civilisation is under assault from either Isis or radical Islam, as | :08:30. | :08:32. | |
they call it, maybe the Chinese in the future rising. This is a view | :08:33. | :08:43. | |
which isn't particularly conducive to compromise, to negotiation. Steve | :08:44. | :08:46. | |
Bannon steams to think we are living back in the age of the Crusades | :08:47. | :08:51. | |
where Christianity and Islam are at war. -- seems to think. And for the | :08:52. | :08:56. | |
future of the world. If you look at Isis, it is ridiculous, it is a | :08:57. | :08:59. | |
small group of violent criminal people but they don't pose a threat | :09:00. | :09:06. | |
to the US or the UK. I mean, the Cold War, the existence of these | :09:07. | :09:09. | |
countries was under threat, you know? From nuclear warfare. But, you | :09:10. | :09:17. | |
know, this apocalyptic vision is not really an accurate representation of | :09:18. | :09:23. | |
the way the world is today. Yet the rhetoric, Susan, of an assault on | :09:24. | :09:28. | |
Western values, it puts bums on seats, doesn't it? What value is | :09:29. | :09:32. | |
mighty realistically be able to persuade Americans are being | :09:33. | :09:36. | |
threatened by a resurgent China, or and expansionist Islam? It is murky. | :09:37. | :09:48. | |
What exactly is the clash of civilisations here? That is why | :09:49. | :09:51. | |
Trump's speech today is probably really unlikely to amount to much in | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
terms of policy. I was struck by the fact that you know who it reminds me | :09:57. | :10:02. | |
of? Vladimir Putin's rhetoric. You captured earlier in the programme | :10:03. | :10:06. | |
the tension of this on the one hand critical language towards Russia you | :10:07. | :10:12. | |
haven't always seen Trump used. He suggested that they stopped shoring | :10:13. | :10:20. | |
Assad. But that is different to the full throated, bombastic even common | :10:21. | :10:25. | |
rhetorical nature of this speech. It is actually Vladimir Putin who often | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
talks in terms very much like this. He says the number one threat Russia | :10:30. | :10:34. | |
and Europe faces is from terrorism. He said that from the beginning of | :10:35. | :10:39. | |
his tenure as Russia's leader. And he talks about restoring | :10:40. | :10:42. | |
conservative values in a vague way. I think Trump was unclear exactly | :10:43. | :10:47. | |
what the existential threat is right now. Do you think he knows himself | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
what the existential threat is? Or are you casting him in the role of | :10:53. | :10:58. | |
Steve Bannon's glove puppet? It's Steve Bannon, what we call the | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
alternative right in the US. There is another forebear of Trump. You | :11:03. | :11:07. | |
didn't mention this. But in his speech he started denouncing | :11:08. | :11:12. | |
bureaucracy. Nobody likes to defend bureaucracy, but this goes back to | :11:13. | :11:18. | |
an obscure radical, James Burnham, who wrote a book in the early 1940s, | :11:19. | :11:22. | |
which has been picked up again in these obscure right-wing website to | :11:23. | :11:29. | |
argue that the threat today is not from a standard from the | :11:30. | :11:32. | |
administrative state. Trump attacks what they call regulation, or that | :11:33. | :11:41. | |
kind of thing. That is a trope extreme writers are fond of using, | :11:42. | :11:44. | |
that it is the state itself which is the danger to Western freedoms. | :11:45. | :11:51. | |
Burnham contended that communism and capitalism were essentially two | :11:52. | :11:58. | |
sides of the same undesirable coin. What word would you employ to | :11:59. | :12:04. | |
describe whatever alternative it is that they want to replace the old | :12:05. | :12:13. | |
world order with? Would you did not mention is that beneath this is an | :12:14. | :12:17. | |
exclusive vision of what American civilisation or Western civilisation | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
is. It is fundamentally Christian. It is fundamentally white. Other | :12:23. | :12:25. | |
peoples don't have a role in it according to them. You could call it | :12:26. | :12:30. | |
a white nationalism. That is what we often call it in the US. It is | :12:31. | :12:35. | |
explicit now. Not in this speech but in the right-wing website and | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
call-in radio. The racial element here. And the religious element is | :12:40. | :12:46. | |
very strong. That goes all the way against the traditions of American | :12:47. | :12:49. | |
values of separation of church and state and pluralism, and tolerance. | :12:50. | :12:54. | |
Those are threats to our civilisation right now. They are | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
coming from within. Susan, the meeting with Vladimir Putin | :13:00. | :13:02. | |
tomorrow, do you speculate on what a positive outcome might be? I would | :13:03. | :13:08. | |
caution people against thinking this is a definitive moment of | :13:09. | :13:10. | |
confrontation when we will find out once and for all just what is the | :13:11. | :13:15. | |
deal between Trump and Putin, or even find out what our policy is. | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
We've just heard there is only going to be Donald Trump and Rex Tillerson | :13:21. | :13:25. | |
and their translators in the meeting with Sergei Lavrov, the Foreign | :13:26. | :13:29. | |
Minister, and President Putin himself. It is going to be an hour | :13:30. | :13:34. | |
or less. Once you add the translation in, it amounts to a | :13:35. | :13:38. | |
short chat between two countries. Even if they are talking, has been | :13:39. | :13:44. | |
reported, and I terrorism moves, can you imagine any major significant | :13:45. | :13:50. | |
arrangement being agreed to in half an hour? -- anti-terrorism moves. | :13:51. | :13:59. | |
Forgive me, I need to move on. Thank you both so much for your time this | :14:00. | :14:00. | |
evening. Staying with Trump, Russia - | :14:01. | :14:02. | |
and, indeed, Ukraine - the Hungarian foreign | :14:03. | :14:04. | |
minister, Peter Sijarto, about being positioned both | :14:05. | :14:08. | |
politically and geographically right in the middle of the changing | :14:09. | :14:10. | |
political landscape. We also discussed Brexit, of course, | :14:11. | :14:12. | |
but I began by asking him about his government's perceived | :14:13. | :14:15. | |
proximity to the Kremlin and possible problems this poses | :14:16. | :14:17. | |
for Hungarian citizens in Ukraine. I don't like this kind | :14:18. | :14:25. | |
of stigmatisation. And I don't like this kind | :14:26. | :14:29. | |
of simplification of things. It was fair to say it is | :14:30. | :14:33. | |
a friendly relationship. And if you live in Central Europe | :14:34. | :14:36. | |
you know that you can't afford Because it's not just | :14:37. | :14:44. | |
European countries that I'd love to know, where do | :14:45. | :14:47. | |
you think, from what he said since becoming President, | :14:48. | :14:54. | |
Donald Trump sits on that scale? Well, you know, actually, | :14:55. | :14:56. | |
we cross fingers for And we cross fingers for him to be | :14:57. | :14:58. | |
able to build a balanced relationship with Russia | :14:59. | :15:03. | |
because you know, as I told you, we are living in Central Europe | :15:04. | :15:05. | |
and we have a very clear Which says that whenever | :15:06. | :15:08. | |
there was a conflict between East and West, | :15:09. | :15:11. | |
Central Europe always lost. And we don't want to | :15:12. | :15:14. | |
be losers any more. So, when we argue, or when we hope | :15:15. | :15:18. | |
for a better relationship between the US and Russia, | :15:19. | :15:23. | |
it's not because we are pro-Russia or pro-US, | :15:24. | :15:25. | |
it's because we are pro-Hungarian. Did you agree with him | :15:26. | :15:31. | |
when he said earlier today I totally agree with the position | :15:32. | :15:33. | |
that the civilised world The better the relationship between | :15:34. | :15:37. | |
the US and Russia is better for us. The worst relationship between US | :15:38. | :15:42. | |
and Russia is the worst for us. You know, we are living | :15:43. | :15:47. | |
in central Europe, OK? Is it fair to describe | :15:48. | :15:49. | |
Viktor Orban's government as being one of the more Eurosceptic | :15:50. | :15:55. | |
in the European Union? No, Hungarian people, | :15:56. | :15:57. | |
including the Hungarian government, But what I can tell | :15:58. | :16:01. | |
you is the following, that we are absolutely pro-European, | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
we want strong European Union because Hungary can be really strong | :16:06. | :16:11. | |
in a strong European Union. 80% of our trade goes | :16:12. | :16:14. | |
on with the EU countries. So we are interested | :16:15. | :16:16. | |
in a strong European Union. But we have a serious | :16:17. | :16:18. | |
debate with Brussels, with some other member states, | :16:19. | :16:21. | |
about how to get there. So we say that the federalist | :16:22. | :16:24. | |
approach will not work out. So we are rather on a sovereignty | :16:25. | :16:29. | |
path, saying that strong European Union must be based | :16:30. | :16:32. | |
on strong member states. You know, to be very honest, | :16:33. | :16:35. | |
we regretted the decision. Because it's a big | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
political and economic loss for the European Union, | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
because you had a very strong voice in the debate | :16:46. | :16:47. | |
about the future of Europe. So this debate will now be | :16:48. | :16:51. | |
unbalanced because the leader of one camp, or the strongest voice of one | :16:52. | :17:00. | |
camp, falls out. In the meantime, here | :17:01. | :17:03. | |
we have a nightmare scenario, If there is no deal, | :17:04. | :17:05. | |
if there is no comprehensive economic trade and investment | :17:06. | :17:10. | |
agreement, then we will be in big trouble in Europe, | :17:11. | :17:17. | |
because the last time we were able to implement a free trade | :17:18. | :17:21. | |
agreement was in 2011. So the problem is that the EU is | :17:22. | :17:24. | |
very slow on free trade agreements. And if Britain gets free hands, | :17:25. | :17:31. | |
then you will be able to sign free trade agreements with India, | :17:32. | :17:34. | |
with Turkey, with the US, with Australia, with | :17:35. | :17:39. | |
which we do not have. I mean, the European Union doesn't | :17:40. | :17:41. | |
have free trade agreements. So if this is the case, then it | :17:42. | :17:44. | |
will harm our competitiveness, harm the competitiveness | :17:45. | :17:47. | |
of European Union furthermore. So that's why we are pushing | :17:48. | :17:52. | |
for a fair, I don't like this Do you understand the | :17:53. | :17:55. | |
categorisation, because I don't. You don't understand, OK, | :17:56. | :18:02. | |
so that's a common point. We want fair Brexit, | :18:03. | :18:06. | |
that's for sure. Balanced, fair Brexit, | :18:07. | :18:08. | |
which will end up in mutual benefits But we want the most comprehensive | :18:09. | :18:11. | |
economic trade and investment partnership with the UK | :18:12. | :18:18. | |
in the future. But I think that we are | :18:19. | :18:20. | |
on the right track. I hope European institutions | :18:21. | :18:23. | |
are ready to negotiate in a, Because what we don't | :18:24. | :18:26. | |
want is the following, that you look back to the time | :18:27. | :18:32. | |
of your referendum. Then some of the reactions come | :18:33. | :18:34. | |
on behalf of European institutions, where, | :18:35. | :18:37. | |
like, as those people took it And we don't want any | :18:38. | :18:41. | |
European institutions to sit at the negotiating table as a group | :18:42. | :18:47. | |
of insulted people. And we don't want the European | :18:48. | :18:51. | |
negotiators or EU negotiators What we want is to have a good | :18:52. | :18:54. | |
deal at the end, a fair deal, Earlier this evening, | :18:55. | :19:01. | |
the director-general of the CBI Carolyn Fairbairn warned | :19:02. | :19:08. | |
in a lecture at the LSE that Brexit uncertainty is starting | :19:09. | :19:12. | |
to damage the UK economy. She cited companies changing plans | :19:13. | :19:19. | |
and slowing investment in anticipation of what she called | :19:20. | :19:24. | |
the "serious disruption" that would ensue if the UK were to leave | :19:25. | :19:26. | |
the EU without a deal. Her comments came as International | :19:27. | :19:29. | |
Trade Minister Liam Fox appeared to add his weight to his Cabinet | :19:30. | :19:32. | |
colleague Andrea Leadsom's recent contention that reporting unwelcome | :19:33. | :19:36. | |
statistics about Brexit He claimed in the Commons that some | :19:37. | :19:39. | |
elements of the media would rather see Britain fail | :19:40. | :19:45. | |
than Brexit succeed. It speaks perhaps too difficult | :19:46. | :20:06. | |
truth to you, which is when you describe an environment you consider | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
less than conducive to business, you run the risk of making that | :20:10. | :20:12. | |
environment even less conducive to business, talking the country down, | :20:13. | :20:16. | |
if you like? One of the things that is really important to have now is a | :20:17. | :20:22. | |
realistic debate. When we hear from firms across the country large and | :20:23. | :20:27. | |
small about the way uncertainty is beginning to affect investment | :20:28. | :20:29. | |
decisions, I think it is very important that we say that but also | :20:30. | :20:32. | |
that we put ideas on the table so what were doing today is putting an | :20:33. | :20:36. | |
idea on the table which is not about the weather of Brexit, is about the | :20:37. | :20:47. | |
how. Whether with an H. It is about a Brexit that protects jobs and | :20:48. | :20:52. | |
investment, that is what we are tabling and a proposal that means | :20:53. | :20:57. | |
the UK would stay in the customs union and the single market as a | :20:58. | :21:01. | |
bridge to a future deal, it has the added advantage that there will be | :21:02. | :21:06. | |
only one transition. How long is the bridge? As short as is possible. It | :21:07. | :21:11. | |
is very difficult to tell. It depends on the final point is, the | :21:12. | :21:15. | |
final point is very different from today. Win over Canada free trade | :21:16. | :21:18. | |
deal took seven years, we hope it would be very much shorter than | :21:19. | :21:24. | |
that. It is very important to say this has no interest in anything | :21:25. | :21:28. | |
that is open-ended and more uncertainty, so a short as | :21:29. | :21:30. | |
practically possible but something that gives businesses the time to | :21:31. | :21:34. | |
adapt. You say it is important to have the debate now, why now and not | :21:35. | :21:41. | |
a year ago after the Lancaster house speech? There is something very | :21:42. | :21:44. | |
important about that because we are heading into the time when companies | :21:45. | :21:47. | |
plan their investment and every sector, every company, has a | :21:48. | :21:50. | |
different point at which they start planning things. So a bakery in | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
Northern Ireland, we know it would take them 20 months if they wanted | :21:55. | :21:57. | |
to relocate to the Republic because of tariffs, so they are starting to | :21:58. | :22:03. | |
think now about what they are having to do. Airlines, it is a year before | :22:04. | :22:06. | |
because they are thinking about passenger reservations. So every | :22:07. | :22:10. | |
company has a tipping point and we are heading into that period and | :22:11. | :22:14. | |
that is why we are beginning to hear more concern from our members about | :22:15. | :22:18. | |
those cliff edges. You did mention the election but you wouldn't be | :22:19. | :22:23. | |
making the speech of Theresa May had secured a three figure majority. I | :22:24. | :22:28. | |
think we would have done. Word for word? I think so because we have an | :22:29. | :22:31. | |
important role to play at the moment, talking about what grassroot | :22:32. | :22:35. | |
businesses, large and small, across the country are saying and they are | :22:36. | :22:39. | |
saying it is beginning to bite and it is important that we are able to | :22:40. | :22:42. | |
say that but also that we have a simple solution on the table. But it | :22:43. | :22:46. | |
is not a solution in the strictest sense of the word, it is holding | :22:47. | :22:49. | |
tactic, a postponement of either pain the unknown. I think the | :22:50. | :22:54. | |
questionnaire dancers is how you give more confidence to business now | :22:55. | :22:59. | |
to invest for the future -- I think the question it and so. The economy | :23:00. | :23:03. | |
is a flywheel, so investment today is jobs in the future and I think | :23:04. | :23:08. | |
our priority today is that, it is so important for growth in the future | :23:09. | :23:11. | |
so let's deal with that problem first. The almost irresistible | :23:12. | :23:14. | |
subtext of all of this is when we reached the end of the bridge, | :23:15. | :23:18. | |
things at that end can't be as good as they were at this end. I think | :23:19. | :23:23. | |
that is an area where we should be optimistic. I think we can still say | :23:24. | :23:27. | |
that we need to get to an in principle agreement by March 2019. | :23:28. | :23:32. | |
One of the important benefits of the proposal we put on the table today | :23:33. | :23:36. | |
is that you can focus all the effort on that final deal, you are not | :23:37. | :23:39. | |
talking about some interim other transitional arrangement which would | :23:40. | :23:44. | |
take up a lot of time, so we think it would make it more likely to get | :23:45. | :23:50. | |
to that outline deal by March 20 19. Except of course March 2019 is the | :23:51. | :23:54. | |
date on which an awful lot of people would be expecting freedom of | :23:55. | :23:57. | |
movement to end immediately and your proposal would well, continue at | :23:58. | :24:03. | |
indefinitely. Not indefinitely. Indefinitely as in you can't tell me | :24:04. | :24:08. | |
how long your bridge is. Firms accept that freedom of movement well | :24:09. | :24:12. | |
and and again, this is about trade-offs and about timing. Firms | :24:13. | :24:15. | |
are committed to, we know we are going to need to increase training | :24:16. | :24:18. | |
and we are going to need to scale up to fill the gaps that are created. | :24:19. | :24:23. | |
That is going to take time, so the other thing that the bridge to the | :24:24. | :24:26. | |
future will give us is the chance to prepare, the chance to get ready, so | :24:27. | :24:30. | |
I think that is a transition as well. I think a lot of people | :24:31. | :24:33. | |
watching may be thinking that you would quite like to stay on the | :24:34. | :24:37. | |
bridge for ever, and see you as one of these on crushed saboteurs. | :24:38. | :24:44. | |
Really clear that that is not the case. I will go back to the point | :24:45. | :24:48. | |
that business is one certainty, not some open-ended period of | :24:49. | :24:51. | |
uncertainty, so as short as practically possible but long enough | :24:52. | :24:56. | |
for the Government, for firms, for people to adapt. Businesses do think | :24:57. | :25:00. | |
in years and they will need time to get ready, so it is a practical | :25:01. | :25:03. | |
proposal that gives the certainty now and that bridge to the future. | :25:04. | :25:08. | |
It is practical but it is almost completely unpolitical. Is that the | :25:09. | :25:16. | |
definition of your role, you represent the interests of your | :25:17. | :25:18. | |
members and don't worry about the difficulty that a Prime Minister may | :25:19. | :25:20. | |
have in delivering the plan you describe? Well, I think everybody | :25:21. | :25:23. | |
has an interest in the success of the economy and jobs and prosperity | :25:24. | :25:26. | |
and I think one of the things we have seen since the election that is | :25:27. | :25:30. | |
very welcome is the economy back centrestage, people are talking | :25:31. | :25:34. | |
about it and how we will pay the public services, about the way we | :25:35. | :25:37. | |
have jobs for our children, so I think that is where this comes | :25:38. | :25:41. | |
together. That is why I do think we have a responsibility as businesses | :25:42. | :25:45. | |
to talk about investment today, jobs in the future. So I'm hoping | :25:46. | :25:48. | |
politics and economics can come together in this. Fingers crossed. | :25:49. | :25:52. | |
Carolyn Fairbairn, many thanks indeed. | :25:53. | :25:56. | |
There is always an element of chance in predicting the future, obviously, | :25:57. | :26:01. | |
but the broad consensus among tech watchers is the biggest of all next | :26:02. | :26:06. | |
big things will be AI, or artificial intelligence. Machines will be able | :26:07. | :26:10. | |
to do things that for millennia, we have blithely presumed would always | :26:11. | :26:16. | |
be the exclusive domain of humanity. Reasoning, recognising speech, text, | :26:17. | :26:17. | |
images, collaboration. The impact from jobs to healthcare , | :26:18. | :26:20. | |
from transport to education is likely to be as profound | :26:21. | :26:24. | |
as the industrial and information Our technology editor David Grossman | :26:25. | :26:27. | |
has been given exclusive access to Microsoft's AI labs in Seattle | :26:28. | :26:36. | |
to see how this There's nothing perhaps that | :26:37. | :26:38. | |
looks quite so dated Seattle's salute to science | :26:39. | :26:49. | |
in the century to come. See how man will live and work | :26:50. | :26:58. | |
and play in the year 2000. Seattle's Space Needle and monorail, | :26:59. | :27:03. | |
built for the '62 World's Fair, probably tell us more | :27:04. | :27:06. | |
about the assumptions of that time Most often, predictions miss | :27:07. | :27:09. | |
the really profound shifts. What Eve will look like in A.D. | :27:10. | :27:18. | |
2000. Like this pre-war assumption | :27:19. | :27:21. | |
that the 21st century woman of fashion would still have a lady's | :27:22. | :27:24. | |
maid to help her dress. Shoes will have cantilever heels | :27:25. | :27:29. | |
and an electric belt will adapt Pity then the people that work here, | :27:30. | :27:32. | |
this is Building 99 In here, the predictions | :27:33. | :27:40. | |
that they make determine the future of the company and perhaps, | :27:41. | :27:47. | |
if they are right, We are betting the company | :27:48. | :27:50. | |
on advances in AI. I've been given exclusive access | :27:51. | :27:57. | |
to meet the people and see the projects that Microsoft believe | :27:58. | :28:04. | |
will shape the future. It reached the point now | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
where people can have, you know, very natural conversations | :28:09. | :28:11. | |
with software and software can I look at how they were | :28:12. | :28:13. | |
actually walking... Eric Horvitz is head | :28:14. | :28:22. | |
of Microsoft's AI programme. Even the lifts here run | :28:23. | :28:28. | |
on this new technology. So much of our civilisation, | :28:29. | :28:34. | |
what we think is special about humans, is based | :28:35. | :28:37. | |
on our intellects, on our ability to see and understand reason, | :28:38. | :28:39. | |
inverse and collaborate to see and understand reason, | :28:40. | :28:44. | |
converse and collaborate and for the first time in history, | :28:45. | :28:46. | |
we are getting close to building machines that have some | :28:47. | :28:49. | |
of that intellect. We went from a place | :28:50. | :28:50. | |
where we would get it right about 80% of the time to a point | :28:51. | :28:53. | |
where, now, it's actually achieved human parity in speech recognition | :28:54. | :28:58. | |
and that's something that just You could probably make sense | :28:59. | :29:00. | |
of the jumble of colours and shapes in this photograph almost instantly, | :29:01. | :29:08. | |
even though chances are you've But consider what it would take | :29:09. | :29:11. | |
for a machine to do that. We've taken natural language | :29:12. | :29:17. | |
processing research, computer vision research and had | :29:18. | :29:25. | |
people from those to field work computer vision research and had | :29:26. | :29:32. | |
people from those two fields work together to be able to generate | :29:33. | :29:34. | |
sentences about pictures. Here, the sentence that we generated | :29:35. | :29:36. | |
with no context other than the contents | :29:37. | :29:40. | |
of the image here is "A man swimming | :29:41. | :29:42. | |
in a pool of water." You know, it used to be the case | :29:43. | :29:44. | |
that it took thousands and thousands of images and hours | :29:45. | :29:47. | |
and hours to train. Now we are down to dozens | :29:48. | :29:49. | |
and minutes and seconds So the building blocks for an AI | :29:50. | :29:52. | |
world are almost complete. Computers can now not only recognise | :29:53. | :30:00. | |
pictures and objects, but gestures and video and speech | :30:01. | :30:02. | |
and text, faces and even emotion. All of these skills can be used | :30:03. | :30:06. | |
by developers in an almost infinite variety of combinations | :30:07. | :30:09. | |
to create new applications. There's been research that | :30:10. | :30:17. | |
Microsoft's been doing Only recently are we seeing these | :30:18. | :30:24. | |
services at the level of quality at a developer can actually build | :30:25. | :30:30. | |
on and have reliable experiences from, because, | :30:31. | :30:33. | |
you know, prior to that, the amount of data required to truly | :30:34. | :30:35. | |
make high, confident predictions from artificial intelligence wasn't | :30:36. | :30:37. | |
there and the computing But a world of super intelligent | :30:38. | :30:39. | |
computers understanding everything isn't everyone's idea | :30:40. | :30:52. | |
of technological perfection. Does any part of this | :30:53. | :30:53. | |
future terrify you at all? I'm concerned with potential | :30:54. | :31:02. | |
misuse of this technology by malevolent forces, | :31:03. | :31:06. | |
by people with ill will. By state and non-state actors | :31:07. | :31:11. | |
who can gain strong powers I haven't also think that the answer | :31:12. | :31:14. | |
to some of that is the AI itself, because there is no better defence | :31:15. | :31:20. | |
and no better detector of And very soon, we might forget | :31:21. | :31:26. | |
we are talking to computers at all. AI systems can have human facing | :31:27. | :31:38. | |
front ends known as bots For example, Xiaoice has been | :31:39. | :31:41. | |
developed by Microsoft to interact with people on Chinese social media | :31:42. | :31:49. | |
and with every conversation, Xiaoice learns both | :31:50. | :31:52. | |
about the individual and humanity. Absolutely, that is what they | :31:53. | :31:57. | |
call me around here. More efficiently, Dan Driscoll | :31:58. | :32:03. | |
is Development Manager and Principal Architect | :32:04. | :32:05. | |
of the Microsoft bot framework. They form emotional connections | :32:06. | :32:06. | |
with some of these chatbots and have I think the average for Xiaoice | :32:07. | :32:14. | |
is 23 turns per conversation, so people will chat, will say, | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
"Hey, how are you doing?" "I am having a good day, | :32:21. | :32:22. | |
how are you doing?" They form a kind of emotional | :32:23. | :32:26. | |
relationship and that is one So many bots have both | :32:27. | :32:29. | |
a sort of like a factual, an IQ component and an emotional | :32:30. | :32:33. | |
or personality EQ component. AI will not only be able | :32:34. | :32:41. | |
to know and recognise everything and everyone, | :32:42. | :32:43. | |
it will know how to charm us, It will know how to reassure us | :32:44. | :32:46. | |
and how to frighten us. Instead of us operating | :32:47. | :32:49. | |
the computers, the computers will be Whoever controls the AI probably | :32:50. | :32:52. | |
controls the future. There's already disquiet about using | :32:53. | :32:55. | |
Big Data to target voters. Well, imagine what an all seeing, | :32:56. | :33:02. | |
all knowing AI could do. Are you concerned at all, | :33:03. | :33:22. | |
for example, about AI elections, AI systems can be designed | :33:23. | :33:24. | |
to persuade, to... In an algorithmic view to optimise | :33:25. | :33:28. | |
goals of changing someone's believes or enhancing the beliefs about one | :33:29. | :33:30. | |
thing or another. The prospect that some day, | :33:31. | :33:36. | |
data mining, data analysis, very close targeting a particular | :33:37. | :33:40. | |
demographics can be used in elections to influence | :33:41. | :33:42. | |
elections is a very, On the one hand, we can see | :33:43. | :33:44. | |
and we can imagine how authoritarian regimes can use these technologies | :33:45. | :33:51. | |
through tracking, surveillance, persuasion, that would | :33:52. | :33:53. | |
strengthen this authoritarian On the other hand, these | :33:54. | :33:54. | |
techniques of AI also open up the world for pluralism, | :33:55. | :34:08. | |
for discussion and collaboration, understanding and tracking, | :34:09. | :34:10. | |
you know, understanding the sources of persuasion and signalling | :34:11. | :34:12. | |
coming into one's life. So we see this prospect of who is | :34:13. | :34:14. | |
going in different directions. So we shouldn't ignore | :34:15. | :34:27. | |
the huge potential benefits. About 30 miles outside Seattle, | :34:28. | :34:29. | |
I saw Microsoft's AI form. Data driven farming | :34:30. | :34:31. | |
could revolutionise how However, measuring precise moisture | :34:32. | :34:33. | |
and nutrient levels for each part of the field would require thousands | :34:34. | :34:41. | |
of sensors and the Instead, an AI model of the farm can | :34:42. | :34:44. | |
be built with just a few sensors in the ground and a few photographs | :34:45. | :34:50. | |
from the air. This is going to help | :34:51. | :34:56. | |
the farmers reduce costs, use much less water, | :34:57. | :34:58. | |
use much less lime, use less fertiliser, | :34:59. | :35:00. | |
use less nutrients and stuff. So this is definitely | :35:01. | :35:04. | |
going to have an impact on reducing the cost as well as less harm | :35:05. | :35:07. | |
on the environment. And the early indications | :35:08. | :35:16. | |
are that yields will rise Using cheap cameras | :35:17. | :35:18. | |
and tethered helium balloons, AI could revolutionise subsistence | :35:19. | :35:22. | |
farming in the developing world. Artificial intelligence is growing | :35:23. | :35:27. | |
fast, getting smarter all the time. While some fear it could end | :35:28. | :35:33. | |
of our species, others believe it Very soon, AI will take off | :35:34. | :35:36. | |
and we will find out if we control It's a mighty tome but when you | :35:37. | :35:41. | |
consider that its author Ibram X Kendi aspires to provide | :35:42. | :35:53. | |
the definitive history of racist ideas in America, | :35:54. | :35:55. | |
it's perhaps surprising that Stamped From The Beginning only runs | :35:56. | :35:57. | |
to just north of 500 pages. The title comes from a speech | :35:58. | :36:05. | |
given to Congress in 1860 by Jefferson Davis, the Mississipi | :36:06. | :36:07. | |
senator who went on to serve as president of the Confederate | :36:08. | :36:10. | |
states of America. He argued that so-called 'black | :36:11. | :36:15. | |
inferiority' had been stamped from the beginning on the bodies | :36:16. | :36:17. | |
of Africans at the Ibram X Kendi joins me down | :36:18. | :36:20. | |
the line from Florida. It is a history book obviously, but | :36:21. | :36:38. | |
it's motivation seems very of the moment. It is because I think I | :36:39. | :36:45. | |
wanted to show readers that we have been engaged in a racial debate, the | :36:46. | :36:51. | |
same racial debate we are engaged in right now, really for hundreds of | :36:52. | :36:57. | |
years. That racial debate seeks to answer the question, why does racial | :36:58. | :37:02. | |
inequality exist? Why do racial disparities exist in our societies? | :37:03. | :37:06. | |
This book really takes the reader through hundreds of years of | :37:07. | :37:09. | |
different people answering that question. And those that have | :37:10. | :37:15. | |
expressed racist ideas have stated racial inequalities, because black | :37:16. | :37:19. | |
people are inferior, and those have expressed anti-racist ideas have | :37:20. | :37:24. | |
been suffering as a result of racial discrimination. Many people would | :37:25. | :37:29. | |
point to the double election of Barack Obama as perhaps the | :37:30. | :37:32. | |
beginning of the end of the history of racism. The one you describe. Yet | :37:33. | :37:37. | |
you describe him as a following in the racist footsteps of every | :37:38. | :37:42. | |
president since Richard Nixon. One of the things I wanted to do is | :37:43. | :37:48. | |
state a very clear definition of a racist idea. And then apply that | :37:49. | :37:52. | |
definition to many different thinkers. And I ended up before | :37:53. | :37:57. | |
applying it to anyone. I ended up applying it to myself and realising | :37:58. | :38:01. | |
that I had even expressed racist ideas. And people I admire like | :38:02. | :38:07. | |
Frederick Douglass, and even Barack Obama, expressed racist ideas, | :38:08. | :38:10. | |
suggesting there was something wrong and inferior about black people. I | :38:11. | :38:16. | |
think that's how powerful and how widespread and how believable these | :38:17. | :38:19. | |
ideas have been throughout American history. You also address the issue | :38:20. | :38:25. | |
of why people in power choose to invoke the fear of a black man, of | :38:26. | :38:31. | |
the black person, in the minds of white people, what answers did you | :38:32. | :38:38. | |
arrive at? I think the underlying, sort of, thesis of the text is | :38:39. | :38:44. | |
showing the ways of which racist ideas are merging and people are | :38:45. | :38:48. | |
consuming those ideas and becoming fearful, becoming hateful, becoming | :38:49. | :38:54. | |
ignorant, that these people are creating and producing these racist | :38:55. | :38:59. | |
ideas to justify racist policies. I think people can understand if you | :39:00. | :39:03. | |
are a slave owner and you make money from owning slaves, black slaves, | :39:04. | :39:06. | |
you are going to create racist ideas to convince others that black people | :39:07. | :39:11. | |
should be enslaved. That black people are so barbaric that if they | :39:12. | :39:13. | |
are not enslaved they will just ravage society. Then you have people | :39:14. | :39:18. | |
who consume those and then begin believing those ideas. That anecdote | :39:19. | :39:22. | |
is indicative of the way racist ideas have function throughout | :39:23. | :39:27. | |
American history. Do you worry you may have unwittingly created a | :39:28. | :39:32. | |
compendium of inspirational racists? You site so much verbatim evidence | :39:33. | :39:38. | |
from historical American political giants, from Abraham Lincoln to even | :39:39. | :39:41. | |
Theodore Roosevelt, expressing, well, an explicit fear so that | :39:42. | :39:51. | |
people on the right can say, we are right, even Abraham Lincoln agrees. | :39:52. | :39:58. | |
Unfortunately, as a scholar, I didn't have the opportunity to think | :39:59. | :40:03. | |
of the effect of this definition. I wanted to create a definition of a | :40:04. | :40:06. | |
racist idea which is very simple, any idea that suggests a racial | :40:07. | :40:11. | |
group is superior or inferior to another racial group in anyway. That | :40:12. | :40:16. | |
definition ended up becoming applied to people I didn't realise it was | :40:17. | :40:21. | |
going to be. But again I think that has been one of the problems. That | :40:22. | :40:28. | |
we... So many people have tried to define their ideas outside of | :40:29. | :40:32. | |
racism. And it has left us with a nearer -- and it has left us with an | :40:33. | :40:43. | |
inaccurate idea of it. INAUDIBLE | :40:44. | :40:46. | |
If we actually look at American history. During the enslavement era, | :40:47. | :40:55. | |
by the time of the end of slavery, 4 million, 5 million poor whites, | :40:56. | :40:58. | |
largely kept in poverty due to the riches of slave holders. Then you | :40:59. | :41:02. | |
have the Reconstruction era which was a boon for many working class | :41:03. | :41:07. | |
and poor whites, as it was for pre-blacks. But then that era was of | :41:08. | :41:12. | |
course undermined by the rise of Jim Crow. Ben White poverty rose just as | :41:13. | :41:21. | |
black poverty rose. The civil rights movement was great for black people | :41:22. | :41:24. | |
and also great for many Americans. -- then white poverty rose just as | :41:25. | :41:32. | |
black poverty rose. In this order to this spiralling inequality in white | :41:33. | :41:36. | |
America. Ultimately you see this history of not only racism being bad | :41:37. | :41:41. | |
for black people, but bad for almost everyone. Many thanks for your time | :41:42. | :41:42. | |
this evening. Before we go, it has | :41:43. | :41:44. | |
been ordained that today Yet by whom, and for what purpose, | :41:45. | :41:47. | |
other than to assist news producers in their quest to fill the gaping | :41:48. | :41:51. | |
void marked "content", Marking International Kissing Day | :41:52. | :41:54. | |
will no doubt become Remember to tune in tomorrow, | :41:55. | :42:00. | |
when Evan will be in the chair. That's what's wrong with you - | :42:01. | :42:07. | |
you should be kissed and often. # Woah Baby | :42:08. | :42:12. | |
# (Kiss me Baby) # Woah Baby | :42:13. | :42:15. | |
# (Love to hold you) # Woah Baby | :42:16. | :42:18. | |
#(Kiss me baby) # Woah Baby | :42:19. | :42:22. | |
# (Love to hold you) # Woah Baby | :42:23. | :42:28. | |
# (Kiss me Baby) # Woah Baby | :42:29. | :42:33. | |
# (Love to hold you) # Woah Baby | :42:34. | :42:35. | |
# (Kiss me baby) # Woah Baby | :42:36. | :42:37. | |
# (Love to hold you) Maybe we should kiss just | :42:38. | :42:41. | |
to break the tension? Friday promises to be a quieter day. | :42:42. | :43:01. | |
A damp start with the weather front drifting across Scotland, dragging | :43:02. | :43:02. | |
its | :43:03. | :43:03. |