17/07/2017 Newsnight


17/07/2017

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Is this Government in the UK right now hanging on, needing time,

:00:15.:00:17.

With big announcements on schools and transport today,

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the Conservatives are projecting themselves as full of purpose,

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But tomorrow Theresa May will read the riot act to the Cabinet,

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telling them to stop the Brexit backbiting and leaks over

:00:34.:00:36.

Yes, we've had some changes in and around Downing Street,

:00:37.:00:43.

and changes to some of the way in which government operates

:00:44.:00:46.

to reflect an understanding of some of the things that went wrong a few

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months ago, but I see someone who's in control of her brief.

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Meanwhile, those who failed to predict the last election

:00:55.:00:57.

I nearly swerved off the road. I was driving at the time.

:00:58.:01:10.

I have to say, no, I think it's possible you end up

:01:11.:01:15.

with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.

:01:16.:01:17.

So you accept that he could possibly win?

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I think that you can't rule anything out in today's politics.

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And the American four-star admiral, who masterminded the hunting down

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and killing of Osama Bin Laden, joins us with his reflections

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There are a lot of sharks in the world.

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If you hope to complete the swim, you will have to deal with them.

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So if you want to change the world, don't back down from the sharks.

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MPs break up for summer this week, but things have already

:01:49.:01:54.

Try as it might to show us that there is a Government

:01:55.:02:01.

getting on with business, the frame is always the same:

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Cabinet debate out in the open, and a leadership campaign

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So, for example, today, the Education Secretary promised

:02:07.:02:10.

extra funding for schools in England, but she could not

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It had to come out of her own department's plans,

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which invites us to think she's been in a battle with the

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After a weekend of briefing - at the Chancellor's expense -

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we learned today that the Prime Minister was poised to tell

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But she does not have the authority that she once did.

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Right now, the Brexiteers in the party are willing her to stay

:02:35.:02:37.

in place, believing that a new leadership election might lead

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Nick, what is Theresa May going to say to them tomorrow? As you were

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saying, the Prime Minister will open the Cabinet meeting with a stern

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warning to ministerial colleagues that what happens in Cabinet stays

:02:55.:03:01.

in Cabinet. Now, on one level that shows she's in agreement of Philip

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Hammond, the Chancellor. He believes this has come from within the

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Cabinet. He's very unamused by it. At that point, the Prime Minister

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and the Chancellor then part company. In Downing Street, the view

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is that the leaks were not prompted by a Brexit plot, but by frustration

:03:18.:03:22.

at the Chancellor's rather dismissive attitude occasionally

:03:23.:03:27.

towards colleagues. But the Chancellor actually does believe

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that a Brexit colleague or colleagues were behind the leaks. He

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believes that his talk of a reasonable transitional period after

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we leave the EU has upset colleagues. He was talking over the

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weekend about how it could be two years, possibly it could even be

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five years and I'm told, he would like to have agreement within

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Government on this by September. On the transitional arrangements?

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That's right, within Government on that by September. Of course, the

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longer the transitional period it is, the more difficult it is for the

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UK to negotiate its own trade deals with countries outside the EU. Many

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of the hard Brexiteers don't want it to drag on that long. All this

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bickering, how's it going down? This afternoon I spoke to Sir Nicholas

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Soames, the grandee, he reflected the frustration of many Tory MPs

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when he told me, "I feel deeply ashamed that there are elements of

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my party who are behaving in a way that is beyond contempt at a time

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when the country is facing the most difficult negotiations since 1940."

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Important to say, he was a Remainor. But 1940 is the year that his

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grandfather, Sir Winston Churchill became Prime Minister. There are

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many Tories saying all this sniping is explained by the Prime Minister's

:04:45.:04:48.

weak authority after the election and they wonder whether she will

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make it through the Autumn. But other figures are saying, Theresa

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May is slowly recovering her authority and one senior figure said

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to me, "I hope the Prime Minister comes back rejuvenated with lots of

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authority after the summer holiday and gets rid of, sacks the trouble

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makers." Why is it the Brexiteers who are keen on keeping her? What do

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they fear would happen? Probably the Conservative Party would vote

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another Brexiteer to lead them if it wasn't Theresa May. There are those

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who say that when the Prime Minister said, after that vote, that Brexit

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means Brexit and she talked about the UK coming out of the single

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market, coming out of the customs union, because she believed that the

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vote showed that the British people no longer accepted free movement and

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no longer accepted the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice,

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the feeling was that was what the so-called hard Brexiteers wanted.

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But there are big Remainers on her side, who's the effective Deputy

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Prime Minister, Damian Green, big Remainor.

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One of the big announcements today, concerned High Speed 2.

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Details of the northern section of the route

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and some contractors for the first southern phase were published.

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HS2 is not a new policy, but it was a perfect way

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of changing the subject from the Government's troubles.

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Yet even here, there are questions about money,

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and there are divisions in the Cabinet.

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Liam Fox, for example, campaigned against it

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before he was appointed International Trade Secretary.

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Earlier today, I sat down with the Transport Secretary,

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Chris Grayling, to talk about HS2, and the Government's predicament.

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And I asked him whether he was 100% sure that HS2 was going to happen.

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Yes, because the work has started already. On the first phase from

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London to Birmingham, the enabling works are being done. The contracts

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we've let today are for the first full part of the work. This is going

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to happen. But it has to happen. People tend to misunderstand what

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HS2 is about, it's a capacity project more than anything else.

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Look at the West Coast main line, one of the busiest railways in

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Europe, congested with commuter trains, freight trains, if it can

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cope with the demand of the future we have to move the express trains

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to a different line, get more freight off the roads onto the

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railways, create more commuter space and do so by building a

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state-of-the-art new high speed route we can be proud of. You don't

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know the final cost and there are reports that the cost may be way

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higher than is currently being talked about. So in a way, by saying

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it's definitely going to happen, without knowing the cost, you are

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saying - we will pay whatever it takes. We know what it's going to

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cost. It's going to cost 55. ?55.7 million. Billion. Billion. You don't

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know that until you've got builders to say they will build it and

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guarantee that price. We've got a pretty good track record in recent

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years. Look at cross-rail, it's going well. It's on time. It's on

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budget. It proves that we in this country can deliver things. The

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reports in the last few days, utterly spurrious. The argument this

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is going to cost five times as much as HS 1, coming from people who have

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no involvement in the project, I don't take that seriously at all.

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You are saying, on this issue, there is complete clarity at the heart of

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Government, Treasury, Cabinet, policy makers, civil servants - this

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is going to happen, it must happen and everybody is on board. Not only

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that, it is happening now. Is it your contention in other areas, the

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Government is as decisive and clear about the direction it's going to

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take. My answer to that is yes. What people look at is - does the Cabinet

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ever have discussions and debates. Of course we do. We're not clones.

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We have different views. We argue the case. We put forward our views.

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We reach consensus and move ahead with it. That's the way Government

:08:38.:08:41.

should work. I have been confused on quite a few areas as to what the

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policy is. Let's start with one of yours, not rail - third runway at

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Heathrow. Is that definitely going to happen? Yes, we are in the middle

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of what is a 12-month process that leads to what is effectively

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outlying planning permission. It's set out in statute. Set out in the

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2008 planning act. It involves a period of public consultation, we're

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going through that at the moment. We just completed that. There's a

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period of Parliamentary scrutiny, slightly delayed because of the

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general election. We will bring this to a vote in the first part of next

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year. We'll table those proposals formally for Parliament to approve

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in the first part of next year and as long as Parliament approves it, I

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believe it will, the project will go ahead. No back tracking on that. No

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back tracking. You've sorted out my confusion on that one. Public sector

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pay - the policy as expressed was a 1% cap through to the year 2019/20.

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Does that remain the Government's policy? As of today, that is the

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case. I know that we've had debates and discussions in the public arena

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politically about this. We have to find the right balance. One of the

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things I'm proudest of, that our economic policy in the last seven

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years has led to the lowest unemployment since the 1970s. Youth

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unemployment has pretty much halved. I don't want to lose that progress

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by letting go of the policies that have delivered it. But at the same

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time, all of us want to spend more money on public services. All of us

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want to spend more on public sector pay. Government is about getting the

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balance between the two right. As to what we do - we've had a number of

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messages from different circles in the last few weeks, as to what we

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do, we will see when the budget comes. As of today beare determined

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to see through the policy which brings down the deficit. We will

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carry on with that focus of bringing down the deficit. Not quite the

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clarity on that one as HS2 and the third runway, what is the policy,

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the aspiration or the expectation on a transitional arrangement with the

:10:45.:10:47.

EU? We've had Liam Fox saying well, it might have to be a few months.

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The Chancellor saying it's not going to be a couple of months, we're

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talking about something more like a couple of years or more. What is the

:10:54.:11:00.

policy on transitional arrangement? Well, the exact detail of the

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transition from in to out will come out of the negotiations. I can tell

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you clearly what the Government's policy is on Brexit. Just the policy

:11:09.:11:13.

on the transitional arrangement. Are you saying we basically don't know

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whether we are seeking a transitional arrangement of two

:11:18.:11:21.

months or two years? Is that - we don't even know what our starting

:11:22.:11:26.

point is? All of this will depend on the position of the European Union

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and how the negotiations go. It is perfectly plausible that we could

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leave without a transitional arrangement, if the agreements were

:11:36.:11:39.

in place for future trade, if the agreements were in place for the art

:11:40.:11:42.

partnerships in the future. You can't really answer the question.

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Nobody is expecting for there not to be a transitional arrangement. We

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don't know what it's going to look like. We have a Philip Hammond verse

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and Liam Fox version, they're completely different to each other.

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It's quite possible we will end up with a transitional arrangement. So

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there's a third position, that we won't have an arrangement. This is a

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negotiation. Can you see why the world feels the Government is,

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perhaps, less clear about its policies than you are about HS2?

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That in all these areas, there has been a confusion on the part of

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public and business as well. I don't accept the principle of confusion.

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We have a clear objective - to leave the European Union but to leave it

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on good terms, with good friends and neighbours, with as close as we can

:12:30.:12:35.

possibly secure the current trading arrangements. Let me ask you one

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last one, how is Theresa May - I know she's a friend of yours, you

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were an early supporter in the leadership campaign last year - how

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is she faring through all this? Is she coping with the stresses of

:12:47.:12:51.

being buffeted around by so many different pressures? If you sat

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around the Cabinet table before the general election, and you sat around

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the Cabinet table after, you would see the same person sitting there

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and the same exposed personality sitting there. Yes, we've had some

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changes around Downing Street and changes to some of the ways in which

:13:08.:13:11.

Government operates to reflect an understanding of some of the things

:13:12.:13:14.

that went wrong a few months ago. I see someone who's in control of her

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brief, who is very much doing the job of Prime Minister and will get

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on with that and deliver a successful outcome to Brexit as well

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as the other things we need to do as a nation. Thank you very much.

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There was an announcement on schools funding today. An extra 1. ?1.3

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billion a year paid for in some arcane ways of taking money out of

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the capital budget of the Education Department and the budget for free

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schools. Now this should ensure there's no real terms reduction in

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per pupil spending on schools. With me now is Angela Rayner,

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the Shadow Education Secretary. Very good evening. Thanks for coming

:13:50.:13:56.

in. It seems like the Government is listening and is responding to what

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it has probably correctly perceived as a dissatisfaction with funding

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for schools. Well, there was an amazing campaign led, extraordinary

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campaign led by the parents of pupils concerned about the school

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funding cuts and the head teachers, which was unprecedented in the way

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that they've writ ton parents and said we can't afford to provide

:14:16.:14:21.

school books and carry out the curriculum. They led the campaign.

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The Government have took heed of that. Of course, they've cut school

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budgets by 2. 8 billion. Those cuts are happening now. These are cuts

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that were further planned in future years. They're putting money in.

:14:34.:14:36.

It's churlish to complain, particularly, you didn't like the

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free schools budget, did you? Well, I felt that some of the money that

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was spent, if you look at the National Audit Office and the Public

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Accounts Committee that have said about the money wasted on free

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schools that weren't in the places we required them. I can't understand

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why you don't see this as a good news day and say Theresa May,

:14:54.:14:57.

Justine Greening, thank you very much. Unfortunately it's not new

:14:58.:15:03.

money. 2. 8 million is still missing from that. The teachers have written

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to parents saying we haven't got the money this year, they aren't getting

:15:07.:15:09.

extra money this year. Come September, that money will still be

:15:10.:15:13.

gone from their budgets, those teaching assistants will not be in

:15:14.:15:17.

their jobs. Right. But they are on course to be by 2022, spending 4

:15:18.:15:23.

billion extra on schools. They're saying they're not going to cut

:15:24.:15:26.

budgets any further. We have to look at the detail. There's no new money.

:15:27.:15:30.

That's the important thing. They've taken it out of one hand - And put

:15:31.:15:34.

it into another. They're not clear about where the money is coming

:15:35.:15:37.

from. That's a concern. We know that we need school places. We know that

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there's a crisis in terms of our class sizes are increasing. If

:15:42.:15:44.

they're not creating free schools, which I prefer actually local

:15:45.:15:47.

authority schools, then they need to be putting the money in there.

:15:48.:15:51.

What's interesting and people have argued this against your party's

:15:52.:15:56.

policies, if schools are in need of so much money, why would you have a

:15:57.:16:00.

policy of spending twice as much than you were planning to spend on

:16:01.:16:07.

schools on wealthier university graduates by aboll Loans, but

:16:08.:16:13.

abolishing fees. That was the most expensive thing in your manifesto.

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It was going to do nothing for schools. Over 50% of the money that

:16:17.:16:20.

we raised in the manifesto went on our national education service. You

:16:21.:16:23.

put 6 billion on schools, including school meals. We put 6 billion - The

:16:24.:16:30.

Government are putting 4 billion. But 11 billion on university

:16:31.:16:33.

students. Yes, because we didn't feel they should carry that burden.

:16:34.:16:36.

We put money into early years. That's important. Saving the Sure

:16:37.:16:40.

Start centres - Was that part of the 6 billion? No, it wasn't. It was

:16:41.:16:45.

half a billion on top of that, which was to protect Sure Start centres,

:16:46.:16:48.

we've lost 1200 of them. They've been lost since the coalition came

:16:49.:16:53.

to power. I've been clear, if we had an extra ?1 it should go into early

:16:54.:16:58.

years. I think the early years stuff - Just to come back to the point of

:16:59.:17:02.

tuition fees, we've got a crisis in our country of skilled workers.

:17:03.:17:05.

We're coming out of Europe and we need skilled workers. If we don't

:17:06.:17:09.

start investing in young people and giving them those opportunities and

:17:10.:17:12.

saddling with that debt is not the way to do it. We have to start

:17:13.:17:17.

tackling that crisis. You broadly speaking accept the analysis of the

:17:18.:17:20.

Office for Budget Responsibility which last week gave a warning on

:17:21.:17:24.

fiscal risks basically. It came out with some interesting lines, in many

:17:25.:17:30.

recent fiscal events giveaways today have been financed by takeaways

:17:31.:17:33.

tomorrow. The risk is tomorrow never comes. New unfunded giveaways would

:17:34.:17:40.

take the Government away from fiscal targets. Do you accept that or not?

:17:41.:17:44.

Our manifesto was funded. We talked about investment in our future and

:17:45.:17:48.

in our regions, the regional banking structure, about skills that our

:17:49.:17:51.

regions require. Businesses tell me, when I go round to business Is, they

:17:52.:17:55.

say to me, Angela, we don't have the skilled workforce that we require.

:17:56.:17:58.

That's why they go to Europe and other places. One thing in your

:17:59.:18:02.

manifesto, in the election that was not costed was the promise to

:18:03.:18:07.

students who have already graduated and paid ?9,000 - Retrospective

:18:08.:18:13.

debt. Yes, presumably that has gone then?

:18:14.:18:19.

No, it was an aspiration Jeremy said, that he would want to look at,

:18:20.:18:23.

but it was never in the manifesto. So don't bank on that happening if

:18:24.:18:27.

you're one of those people? It is not a case of banking on it. That

:18:28.:18:32.

?100 billion of debt is what this Government have saddled current

:18:33.:18:35.

students with. If we were in government we would abolish tuition

:18:36.:18:38.

fees, and we would look at that as an aspiration. We have not made any

:18:39.:18:46.

promises on the ?100 billion of debt this Government has created on these

:18:47.:18:49.

students of today. We have said if we get into power we would abolish

:18:50.:18:51.

them from that day forth, and we would look at what we could do but

:18:52.:18:54.

not make uncosted promises. Angela Rayner, thanks ever so much. Thanks.

:18:55.:18:56.

Well, we've discussed today's politics, but how we got

:18:57.:18:58.

here is, of course, the result of one of a spectacular

:18:59.:19:01.

Theresa May wrongly thought she'd win big and called an election.

:19:02.:19:05.

But in her defence, she was not alone.

:19:06.:19:09.

The mainstream media thought the same, as did

:19:10.:19:11.

most of the pollsters, the psephologists, most Tory

:19:12.:19:13.

and Labour MPs, the bookies, Uncle Tom Cobley and all.

:19:14.:19:15.

A second election in a row with a result we didn't call right.

:19:16.:19:18.

You can add Brexit and Trump if you like too.

:19:19.:19:22.

So the question for the political class is:

:19:23.:19:24.

Does anybody understand the new rules of our

:19:25.:19:26.

We are all pondering on this at the moment, none more

:19:27.:19:37.

than Newsnight's editor, Ian Katz, who has been spending some

:19:38.:19:40.

time trying to find out what went wrong with the forecasts.

:19:41.:19:42.

A warning - there is a little bit of late night bad language.

:19:43.:19:56.

These are disorienting times for those of us

:19:57.:19:58.

in the business of covering, and practising, politics.

:19:59.:20:00.

The old indicators don't seem to work any more.

:20:01.:20:02.

Every election seems to bring another surprise.

:20:03.:20:04.

It feels a bit like the instruments, the instincts we've used for decades

:20:05.:20:21.

to navigate the political landscape, are broken or obsolete.

:20:22.:20:24.

Has politics changed in some profound way many of us

:20:25.:20:26.

Or have we just been through a series of freak political

:20:27.:20:44.

For me, the challenge facing the media and political

:20:45.:20:48.

establishments was brought home rather brutally, and quite

:20:49.:20:50.

literally, by my 18-year-old daughter the morning

:20:51.:20:51.

Remind me what you told me the day after the election.

:20:52.:20:55.

That I'm not going to believe anything you say about politics ever

:20:56.:20:58.

again because you've got everything wrong.

:20:59.:21:00.

Fortunately, I wasn't the only one feeling a little sheepish

:21:01.:21:02.

when Big Ben struck 10pm on June 8th.

:21:03.:21:17.

DAVID DIMBLEBY: And what we're saying is the Conservatives

:21:18.:21:19.

are the largest party - note, they don't have an overall

:21:20.:21:22.

There was a little cry of despair, and my head hit the table.

:21:23.:21:30.

You can't rule anything out in today's politics.

:21:31.:21:36.

When you've been wrong about something, it's always a good

:21:37.:21:39.

idea to go looking for someone who's been, well, wronger.

:21:40.:21:41.

When it comes to the 2017 election, the highly respected

:21:42.:21:43.

pollster Marten Boon got it spectacularly wrong.

:21:44.:21:51.

In its election poll, his company ICM predicted

:21:52.:21:53.

That's ten points more than they achieved.

:21:54.:21:57.

We were bamboozled by the turnout, which we predicted wouldn't

:21:58.:21:59.

And I have to hold up my hands and say that -

:22:00.:22:05.

you know, I made a call and it was the wrong

:22:06.:22:08.

call, and the result was a poor poll performance.

:22:09.:22:10.

Why would anyone take the polls seriously again?

:22:11.:22:12.

It's a very good question, and we have to move things on.

:22:13.:22:19.

The problem for me is that the techniques

:22:20.:22:27.

which didn't work in 2015 - ie we undershot the Labour score,

:22:28.:22:30.

as historically we've done as pollsters going back almost

:22:31.:22:46.

And indeed the techniques which the likes of myself applied

:22:47.:22:50.

in 2017 wouldn't have worked retrospectively in 2015.

:22:51.:22:52.

If you were in the schedule and you are a politician or a CEO

:22:53.:22:55.

of a company which had failed in this way, we'd be saying,

:22:56.:22:58.

I thought about resigning publicly, after 2015 actually -

:22:59.:23:02.

I openly considered whether it was worthwhile

:23:03.:23:04.

subjecting my company ICM to the brickbats of misfortune

:23:05.:23:06.

We in ICM and we in industry do need to think seriously

:23:07.:23:16.

about whether classical orthodox polling techniques are something

:23:17.:23:18.

Another person on the long list of those admitting,

:23:19.:23:27.

through somewhat gritted teeth, that they underestimated Corbyn

:23:28.:23:29.

Back in April she said Corbyn staying on as party leader would be

:23:30.:23:34.

And do I have to re-evaluate the way that I am about politics?

:23:35.:23:40.

After shock election results, news organisations like the BBC tend

:23:41.:23:56.

to say, "If only we'd listened more carefully to what was

:23:57.:23:59.

The trouble is, says Jess, what she was hearing was very

:24:00.:24:02.

What we potentially missed in classic campaigning

:24:03.:24:06.

and classic polling - I imagine this is how

:24:07.:24:12.

they do the polling - is the people we're talking to.

:24:13.:24:15.

And still I'm driving around my constituency thinking,

:24:16.:24:17.

Like, I want to find those people and know exactly why they went

:24:18.:24:23.

out and voted Labour, because there are definitely

:24:24.:24:25.

people who'd never voted before, younger people -

:24:26.:24:26.

we just weren't talking to the right people.

:24:27.:24:29.

We always go back and talk to the Labour promise,

:24:30.:24:31.

You wouldn't waste your time in an election campaign bothering

:24:32.:24:38.

with people who have no voting record.

:24:39.:24:39.

Someone who isn't reaching for the sackcloth and ashes just yet

:24:40.:24:42.

if ITV's political editor Robert Peston.

:24:43.:24:47.

He may not have seen the election result coming,

:24:48.:24:49.

but he can claim to have been more upbeat about Corbyn's

:24:50.:24:52.

The old rules have gone, and we've got to try and make sense

:24:53.:24:57.

And the truthful answer is that, you know, we are all

:24:58.:25:00.

Millions and millions of people in rich countries are saying

:25:01.:25:06.

that the way things worked in the past cannot go on.

:25:07.:25:09.

Their interests are not being served by the establishment.

:25:10.:25:11.

Now, that doesn't mean that Jeremy Corbyn definitely

:25:12.:25:13.

becomes Prime Minister, but it absolutely means

:25:14.:25:14.

that the old rules are useless in making an assessment

:25:15.:25:17.

about whether he's going to be Prime Minister.

:25:18.:25:19.

Where were you when you heard the exit poll for last month's election?

:25:20.:25:30.

I was at home, watching the election.

:25:31.:25:38.

Did you shed a little tear like Theresa May?

:25:39.:25:40.

The man who, perhaps more than any other,

:25:41.:25:49.

could claim to have divined the rules of modern

:25:50.:25:51.

His Tory successors David Cameron and George Osborne revered his

:25:52.:25:55.

political judgment so much they called him the master.

:25:56.:25:58.

You've obviously reflected quite a lot over the last month

:25:59.:26:00.

Was there anything about it which made you question what you thought

:26:01.:26:17.

In the sense that, and not just this election result, but Brexit,

:26:18.:26:23.

the Trump victory in the US, what's happening all over Europe.

:26:24.:26:29.

Did you see any of the other two coming, by the way?

:26:30.:26:31.

For most of my political life, I've been saying, I think this

:26:32.:26:39.

is the right way to go, and what's more it's the only

:26:40.:26:42.

I have to say, no, I think it's possible you end up

:26:43.:26:47.

with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.

:26:48.:26:49.

So you except that he could possibly win on the platform he is on?

:26:50.:26:52.

I think you can't rule anything out in today's politics.

:26:53.:26:54.

But it doesn't stop me believing that if we deliver Brexit

:26:55.:26:57.

and at the same time are delivering the programme that he has

:26:58.:27:00.

at the moment, unreconstructed, unchanged, we will be in for a very

:27:01.:27:03.

I still believe the surest route is through the centre.

:27:04.:27:13.

But I think you can't say in today's politics,

:27:14.:27:17.

particularly if you've gone through three things -

:27:18.:27:19.

the election of Donald Trump, Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn doing so well

:27:20.:27:22.

- and if you're in my position and you haven't got those

:27:23.:27:28.

things right, you've got to accept it's possible that

:27:29.:27:30.

But, no, I haven't changed my basic view, and why should I?

:27:31.:27:34.

But that's a really interesting thing, because the events

:27:35.:27:38.

of the last years haven't challenged any of your beliefs.

:27:39.:27:41.

I mean, I find myself looking at some of these things, thinking,

:27:42.:27:44.

I don't know what I thought I knew about politics.

:27:45.:27:47.

No, no, you've got to distinguish between two separate things.

:27:48.:27:53.

One is accepting that there is something going on in politics

:27:54.:27:55.

that you didn't get and don't fully understand.

:27:56.:27:58.

We are completely on the same line with that - I agree.

:27:59.:28:01.

That's why I'm studying it, very hard.

:28:02.:28:03.

The other thing is to work out what you believe in.

:28:04.:28:06.

Does the fact that the British people voted for Brexit mean that

:28:07.:28:08.

No, I think it's a disastrous mistake for the country.

:28:09.:28:12.

Not everyone is flagellating themselves are getting yet another

:28:13.:28:14.

A few, like the Cole missed Rod Liddle, are feeling quite smug. --

:28:15.:28:37.

like the columnist Rod Liddle. The suggested before the election that

:28:38.:28:42.

it would leave us probably where we are. Don't think because you believe

:28:43.:28:49.

Jeremy Corbyn is our jackass that everyone else in the country

:28:50.:28:53.

believes Jeremy Corbyn is a jackass. It starts with not following the

:28:54.:28:56.

herd, but even he admits his record is not entirely unblemished. I got

:28:57.:29:03.

Brexit wrong. Much as I voted to leave, I thought that probably in

:29:04.:29:06.

the end we would vote to remain, and I think most people thought that.

:29:07.:29:11.

You got your own patch wrong intent as well? Yes. Middlesbrough, South,

:29:12.:29:21.

because it was marginal ball, and -- marginal and we knew Canterbury was

:29:22.:29:26.

a safe seat for the Tories, so we got that one wrong. Bloody students.

:29:27.:29:34.

Ah, yes, those pesky students, assuming they would stay in and

:29:35.:29:39.

watch Love Island rather than going out to vote is another reason we got

:29:40.:29:43.

it wrong on June eight. Matt Turner was to run Evolve Politics, one of

:29:44.:29:49.

the handful of Corbyn supporting website that claims to have their

:29:50.:29:52.

fingers closer to the national polls than the mainstream media. He has

:29:53.:29:56.

ventured into the heart of the beast to explain what he could see that we

:29:57.:30:03.

couldn't. We had our ear to the ground. We give a more accurate

:30:04.:30:06.

reflection of what people were actually feeling. The same could

:30:07.:30:11.

probably be said of the new up-and-coming right-wing press

:30:12.:30:14.

sites. People accused us of being in a bubble when we accurately

:30:15.:30:17.

predicted a hung parliament. If anything, the rules have changed.

:30:18.:30:20.

Perhaps two years ago when we started we were living in a Labour

:30:21.:30:24.

supporting bubbles, but certainly not now. The week before the

:30:25.:30:28.

election we reached 70 million people on Facebook. Over a million

:30:29.:30:33.

unique hits to our site. -- 17 million people. If anyone I think it

:30:34.:30:36.

is the Westminster media who are now in that bubble. I never knew an

:30:37.:30:43.

election where I saw such a gap between what was in the newspapers

:30:44.:30:45.

and what people were talking about. I mean, you know I spend way too

:30:46.:30:48.

much time on social media, but what people were talking about on social

:30:49.:30:54.

media... The whole debate was going on, on social media, different forms

:30:55.:30:57.

of people interacting with each other, particularly young people,

:30:58.:31:00.

that really does not hit the mainstream media at all, so that is

:31:01.:31:04.

a lesson learned. So how should we navigate our way through this new

:31:05.:31:09.

political landscape? Acknowledging that we did not see Jeremy Corbyn's

:31:10.:31:13.

success coming is not the same as saying our coverage was not much

:31:14.:31:17.

good. In fact, there were lots of indications in Newsnight's reporting

:31:18.:31:20.

that he was doing much better than the polls suggested. The trouble is

:31:21.:31:25.

when so many voices are saying the opposite, it is hard not to doubt

:31:26.:31:30.

the evidence in front of you. For example, getting these enormous

:31:31.:31:33.

crowd of enthusiastic people coming to listen to him and,, you know, you

:31:34.:31:38.

would routinely be told, well, of course, that is not a representative

:31:39.:31:42.

sample. It is stage-managed, you know. There are millions of voters

:31:43.:31:46.

and these are best a couple of thousand. The enthusiasm he was

:31:47.:31:51.

generating was real. Right? And yet almost nobody believed it. So we

:31:52.:31:55.

have just got to get better at having slightly open minds and

:31:56.:31:58.

saying, I am seeing something quite extraordinary here and it is

:31:59.:32:01.

different from what we saw in previous elections. It means

:32:02.:32:06.

something. All those journalists and pollsters left feeling disorientated

:32:07.:32:09.

after last month's result can comfort themselves with one thing.

:32:10.:32:13.

Most politicians, including those around Jeremy Corbyn, were just as

:32:14.:32:19.

surprised by it. In fact, one source told me that until minutes before

:32:20.:32:24.

the exit poll, senior Labour figures had been telling him they expected

:32:25.:32:28.

an increased Tory majority of as many as 60 seats. In the two weeks

:32:29.:32:34.

before the actual day of the poll I was saying Labour were going to do a

:32:35.:32:37.

hell of a lot better than most people thought, but did I think

:32:38.:32:40.

there was going to be a hung parliament? No! Because in the way

:32:41.:32:46.

that I do as a normal journalist, I spoke to senior Tories, spoke to

:32:47.:32:52.

senior Labour, half an hour before I got, you know, the exit poll. Labour

:32:53.:32:57.

was expecting a reasonable majority for Theresa May and the Tories were

:32:58.:33:02.

expecting a reasonable majority for Theresa May, and the big mistake I

:33:03.:33:07.

made was costing them! Do you think there has been a structural forever

:33:08.:33:12.

change that we haven't quite got in our heads and? -- the big mistake I

:33:13.:33:17.

made was trusting them. Or do you think the normal rules will apply

:33:18.:33:22.

again? I think it is a really difficult question and I am not sure

:33:23.:33:25.

what the answer is, so what I am saying is sort of... It is a work in

:33:26.:33:32.

progress in terms of my thinking. Firstly, I think that social media,

:33:33.:33:40.

its interaction with a polarised fragmented partisan conventional

:33:41.:33:45.

media is creating a very divided politics, in which populism of left

:33:46.:33:48.

and right can gain a foothold very easily. That is one change.

:33:49.:33:53.

Secondly, I think after the financial crisis, there is a real

:33:54.:33:59.

feeling with people that globalisation just forces things on

:34:00.:34:03.

and many people feel powerless and left behind, and that has got to be

:34:04.:34:07.

addressed. So those two things have changed. What in my view has not

:34:08.:34:10.

changed is that the only things that will actually work, I mean, whether

:34:11.:34:15.

people vote for them or not by the way is another matter, but only

:34:16.:34:19.

things that will actually work as a modern policy agenda that will be

:34:20.:34:20.

from a centre prone position. The fact that a man famously

:34:21.:34:29.

unencumbered by self-doubt is struggling make sense of the

:34:30.:34:34.

political landscape is a measure of the uncharted territory we have

:34:35.:34:36.

found ourselves in. Whether the terrain of politics has changed for

:34:37.:34:41.

good or whether we've been on an eventful detour, may be the most

:34:42.:34:44.

pressing political question of our time. Whatever the answer, you'd be

:34:45.:34:49.

sensible to ignore political predictions for the foreseeable

:34:50.:34:51.

future. And I, for one, won't be making any.

:34:52.:34:55.

And you can see a longer version of that interview

:34:56.:34:59.

Ian did with Tony Blair on the Newsnight Youtube channel.

:35:00.:35:01.

Three years ago, an American admiral gave a commencement address

:35:02.:35:09.

to the graduating students of the University

:35:10.:35:10.

It was ten tips for a better life, picked up from his training

:35:11.:35:16.

This was part of the first tip - make your bed when you get up

:35:17.:35:25.

and start the day with a task completed.

:35:26.:35:28.

If you make your bed every morning, you will have accomplished

:35:29.:35:31.

It will give you a small sense of pride and it will encourage

:35:32.:35:37.

you to do another task, and another, and another.

:35:38.:35:41.

And by the end of the day that one task completed will have turned

:35:42.:35:45.

Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that the little

:35:46.:35:50.

If you can't do the little things right, you'll never be able to do

:35:51.:35:55.

The speech - which was full of stories of the brutal training

:35:56.:36:00.

of the Navy SEALS special forces - became something of

:36:01.:36:03.

So much so, that it is now a book, called Make Your Bed.

:36:04.:36:09.

And I'm joined by the man who gave that speech Admiral William McRaven,

:36:10.:36:13.

who is not only a retired admiral but was the man in overall charge

:36:14.:36:17.

of American special operations forces when they took out

:36:18.:36:19.

Very good evening to you. Thanks. Osama bin Laden, one of the most

:36:20.:36:36.

important points in your career, any regrets? No, I think the mission

:36:37.:36:40.

went as we planned it, with one exception. We lost a helicopter on

:36:41.:36:44.

the compound. But having said that, you always plan for worst case

:36:45.:36:50.

scenarios. We had a Plan A, B, C and D. Plan A went askew. We immediately

:36:51.:36:56.

jumped into Plan B. We got our man. Was there ever any chance that he

:36:57.:37:00.

would have come back alive, captured as opposed to killed? Absolutely. A

:37:01.:37:03.

lot of people feel this was a kill-only mission. That was not the

:37:04.:37:07.

case. The strict rules of engagement said that if he is clearly not a

:37:08.:37:12.

threat, then you have to capture him, you can't just kill him. But

:37:13.:37:16.

conversely, I made sure the guys understood if they felt that there

:37:17.:37:20.

was at all a threat, that they had to make the right decision and they

:37:21.:37:23.

have to do that in a split second. So you know, you're coming up onto

:37:24.:37:27.

the third floor, people are moving around, you're on night vision

:37:28.:37:30.

goggles, a lot of things are happening. They made the right

:37:31.:37:33.

decision. You give them that license because they have to take the risk.

:37:34.:37:36.

They protect themselves first. Quite a few Special Forces. After 9/11,

:37:37.:37:41.

the Americans were accused of lawless, reckless behaviour. There

:37:42.:37:45.

have been cases here where there have been charge that's they have

:37:46.:37:49.

killed people, maybe in cold blood, rather than capturing them for

:37:50.:37:52.

various reasons. I believe the Australians have had some issues as

:37:53.:37:56.

well. Is there a culture, of course you give these people discretion,

:37:57.:38:00.

can that turn into a problem where they abuse the power that you have

:38:01.:38:05.

given them? Well, I think in any wartime scenario you have that

:38:06.:38:08.

potential for the soldiers on the ground to abuse the flexibility and

:38:09.:38:12.

latitude you give them. What I used to do, I routinely went out on

:38:13.:38:16.

missions with my forces, so I understood exactly what they were

:38:17.:38:19.

doing and so that they knew that I was kind of keeping a watchful eye

:38:20.:38:23.

over them. I travelled around on a weekly basis to meet with my units.

:38:24.:38:27.

I kept my ear to the ground. Whenever we thought that there might

:38:28.:38:30.

be the potential for some sort of abuse, we investigated it quickly to

:38:31.:38:34.

make sure that there was no bad behaviour. And punished - And held

:38:35.:38:39.

people responsible, absolutely. Let's speak more about general

:38:40.:38:42.

things. You were watching that film with Tony Blair in with me, what was

:38:43.:38:47.

your impression as you watched that, you could probably have run that in

:38:48.:38:51.

the United States. We had the same situation with our past election as

:38:52.:38:54.

there were concerns about the polls. Clearly I think most of the polls

:38:55.:38:58.

suggested that Hillary Clinton would win. Then we have Donald Trump as

:38:59.:39:03.

the president. But I don't think that there was anything necessity

:39:04.:39:13.

fairious amongst -- nefarious amongst the pollsters. They weren't

:39:14.:39:19.

watching the meetings below the surface and got it wrong. Commander

:39:20.:39:21.

in chief is Donald Trump. America, in fact like the United Kingdom, is

:39:22.:39:26.

pretty divided. Does that make it harder for the armed forces, do you

:39:27.:39:29.

think, to serve the country? Not at all. I served for both President

:39:30.:39:37.

Bush and President Obama and I didn't agree with them on a lot of

:39:38.:39:41.

things. But you have a responsibility as a man or woman in

:39:42.:39:43.

uniform to support the Commander in Chief. The Commander in Chief

:39:44.:39:47.

represents the people of the United States and so, I don't think the

:39:48.:39:51.

soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines have any concern about

:39:52.:39:54.

supporting this president or any president. I mean, he's been quite

:39:55.:39:59.

negative about certain things. You know, he mocked McCane's war record.

:40:00.:40:05.

He picked on the Khan family, whose child was, boy was killed in action.

:40:06.:40:11.

Right. What is the Army feeling about serving this man? I think the

:40:12.:40:16.

bigger issue for the soldiers on the ground, in the fox hole, if you

:40:17.:40:19.

will, are they going to get the resources they need to do their job.

:40:20.:40:24.

What the difference between President Trump and candidate Trump,

:40:25.:40:29.

he has said he is going to increase the military budget, so your viewers

:40:30.:40:33.

may not be aware, for seven years we've been under sequestration. The

:40:34.:40:41.

president has said he will open that up and give the military the

:40:42.:40:45.

resources they need. The other thing that gives the soldiers great trust

:40:46.:40:50.

and confidence is that we have, as the Secretary of Defence, former

:40:51.:40:54.

marine general Jim Matis, a wonderful officer. Most of the

:40:55.:40:56.

day-to-day decisions come to the Secretary of Defence. I need very

:40:57.:41:03.

finally to ask you about why, it is basically a-help book, why so happen

:41:04.:41:08.

-- self-help book, why so popular? The ten lessons I talked about when

:41:09.:41:15.

I was trained, are universal lessons. Start the day with a task

:41:16.:41:19.

is important. Don't quit just because times get tough is

:41:20.:41:22.

important. Making sure that you understand that we all go through

:41:23.:41:26.

this. Did t doesn't matter whether you've spent a day in uniform,

:41:27.:41:30.

doesn't matter if you're a guy or a Goole, they are important -- gal,

:41:31.:41:33.

they are important lessons. Thank you very much.

:41:34.:41:37.

Just a quick look at the Times' front page: We were talking about

:41:38.:41:42.

back biting in the Cabinet. May urged to sack her donkey ministers.

:41:43.:41:46.

Squabbling Cabinet must unite PM will say. Meanwhile some of the back

:41:47.:41:51.

biting is continuing. The Guardian leading on the schools there.

:41:52.:41:55.

Getting a little bit extra money. That is all we have time for today.

:41:56.:41:58.

I'm back tomorrow. Until then, good night.

:41:59.:42:11.

Good evening, temperatures will continue to climb during tomorrow.

:42:12.:42:15.

With the

:42:16.:42:16.

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