Browse content similar to 17/07/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Is this Government in the UK right now hanging on, needing time, | :00:15. | :00:17. | |
With big announcements on schools and transport today, | :00:18. | :00:23. | |
the Conservatives are projecting themselves as full of purpose, | :00:24. | :00:27. | |
But tomorrow Theresa May will read the riot act to the Cabinet, | :00:28. | :00:33. | |
telling them to stop the Brexit backbiting and leaks over | :00:34. | :00:36. | |
Yes, we've had some changes in and around Downing Street, | :00:37. | :00:43. | |
and changes to some of the way in which government operates | :00:44. | :00:46. | |
to reflect an understanding of some of the things that went wrong a few | :00:47. | :00:49. | |
months ago, but I see someone who's in control of her brief. | :00:50. | :00:54. | |
Meanwhile, those who failed to predict the last election | :00:55. | :00:57. | |
I nearly swerved off the road. I was driving at the time. | :00:58. | :01:10. | |
I have to say, no, I think it's possible you end up | :01:11. | :01:15. | |
with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. | :01:16. | :01:17. | |
So you accept that he could possibly win? | :01:18. | :01:19. | |
I think that you can't rule anything out in today's politics. | :01:20. | :01:21. | |
And the American four-star admiral, who masterminded the hunting down | :01:22. | :01:24. | |
and killing of Osama Bin Laden, joins us with his reflections | :01:25. | :01:27. | |
There are a lot of sharks in the world. | :01:28. | :01:31. | |
If you hope to complete the swim, you will have to deal with them. | :01:32. | :01:35. | |
So if you want to change the world, don't back down from the sharks. | :01:36. | :01:48. | |
MPs break up for summer this week, but things have already | :01:49. | :01:54. | |
Try as it might to show us that there is a Government | :01:55. | :02:01. | |
getting on with business, the frame is always the same: | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
Cabinet debate out in the open, and a leadership campaign | :02:05. | :02:06. | |
So, for example, today, the Education Secretary promised | :02:07. | :02:10. | |
extra funding for schools in England, but she could not | :02:11. | :02:14. | |
It had to come out of her own department's plans, | :02:15. | :02:19. | |
which invites us to think she's been in a battle with the | :02:20. | :02:21. | |
After a weekend of briefing - at the Chancellor's expense - | :02:22. | :02:26. | |
we learned today that the Prime Minister was poised to tell | :02:27. | :02:29. | |
But she does not have the authority that she once did. | :02:30. | :02:34. | |
Right now, the Brexiteers in the party are willing her to stay | :02:35. | :02:37. | |
in place, believing that a new leadership election might lead | :02:38. | :02:41. | |
Nick, what is Theresa May going to say to them tomorrow? As you were | :02:42. | :02:52. | |
saying, the Prime Minister will open the Cabinet meeting with a stern | :02:53. | :02:54. | |
warning to ministerial colleagues that what happens in Cabinet stays | :02:55. | :03:01. | |
in Cabinet. Now, on one level that shows she's in agreement of Philip | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
Hammond, the Chancellor. He believes this has come from within the | :03:07. | :03:09. | |
Cabinet. He's very unamused by it. At that point, the Prime Minister | :03:10. | :03:13. | |
and the Chancellor then part company. In Downing Street, the view | :03:14. | :03:17. | |
is that the leaks were not prompted by a Brexit plot, but by frustration | :03:18. | :03:22. | |
at the Chancellor's rather dismissive attitude occasionally | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
towards colleagues. But the Chancellor actually does believe | :03:28. | :03:30. | |
that a Brexit colleague or colleagues were behind the leaks. He | :03:31. | :03:34. | |
believes that his talk of a reasonable transitional period after | :03:35. | :03:37. | |
we leave the EU has upset colleagues. He was talking over the | :03:38. | :03:41. | |
weekend about how it could be two years, possibly it could even be | :03:42. | :03:44. | |
five years and I'm told, he would like to have agreement within | :03:45. | :03:49. | |
Government on this by September. On the transitional arrangements? | :03:50. | :03:52. | |
That's right, within Government on that by September. Of course, the | :03:53. | :03:56. | |
longer the transitional period it is, the more difficult it is for the | :03:57. | :04:00. | |
UK to negotiate its own trade deals with countries outside the EU. Many | :04:01. | :04:05. | |
of the hard Brexiteers don't want it to drag on that long. All this | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
bickering, how's it going down? This afternoon I spoke to Sir Nicholas | :04:11. | :04:16. | |
Soames, the grandee, he reflected the frustration of many Tory MPs | :04:17. | :04:20. | |
when he told me, "I feel deeply ashamed that there are elements of | :04:21. | :04:25. | |
my party who are behaving in a way that is beyond contempt at a time | :04:26. | :04:32. | |
when the country is facing the most difficult negotiations since 1940." | :04:33. | :04:36. | |
Important to say, he was a Remainor. But 1940 is the year that his | :04:37. | :04:40. | |
grandfather, Sir Winston Churchill became Prime Minister. There are | :04:41. | :04:44. | |
many Tories saying all this sniping is explained by the Prime Minister's | :04:45. | :04:48. | |
weak authority after the election and they wonder whether she will | :04:49. | :04:52. | |
make it through the Autumn. But other figures are saying, Theresa | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
May is slowly recovering her authority and one senior figure said | :04:58. | :05:01. | |
to me, "I hope the Prime Minister comes back rejuvenated with lots of | :05:02. | :05:05. | |
authority after the summer holiday and gets rid of, sacks the trouble | :05:06. | :05:09. | |
makers." Why is it the Brexiteers who are keen on keeping her? What do | :05:10. | :05:13. | |
they fear would happen? Probably the Conservative Party would vote | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
another Brexiteer to lead them if it wasn't Theresa May. There are those | :05:18. | :05:22. | |
who say that when the Prime Minister said, after that vote, that Brexit | :05:23. | :05:25. | |
means Brexit and she talked about the UK coming out of the single | :05:26. | :05:29. | |
market, coming out of the customs union, because she believed that the | :05:30. | :05:32. | |
vote showed that the British people no longer accepted free movement and | :05:33. | :05:36. | |
no longer accepted the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, | :05:37. | :05:41. | |
the feeling was that was what the so-called hard Brexiteers wanted. | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
But there are big Remainers on her side, who's the effective Deputy | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
Prime Minister, Damian Green, big Remainor. | :05:52. | :05:53. | |
One of the big announcements today, concerned High Speed 2. | :05:54. | :05:55. | |
Details of the northern section of the route | :05:56. | :05:58. | |
and some contractors for the first southern phase were published. | :05:59. | :06:00. | |
HS2 is not a new policy, but it was a perfect way | :06:01. | :06:03. | |
of changing the subject from the Government's troubles. | :06:04. | :06:05. | |
Yet even here, there are questions about money, | :06:06. | :06:08. | |
and there are divisions in the Cabinet. | :06:09. | :06:11. | |
Liam Fox, for example, campaigned against it | :06:12. | :06:13. | |
before he was appointed International Trade Secretary. | :06:14. | :06:15. | |
Earlier today, I sat down with the Transport Secretary, | :06:16. | :06:18. | |
Chris Grayling, to talk about HS2, and the Government's predicament. | :06:19. | :06:21. | |
And I asked him whether he was 100% sure that HS2 was going to happen. | :06:22. | :06:28. | |
Yes, because the work has started already. On the first phase from | :06:29. | :06:33. | |
London to Birmingham, the enabling works are being done. The contracts | :06:34. | :06:37. | |
we've let today are for the first full part of the work. This is going | :06:38. | :06:41. | |
to happen. But it has to happen. People tend to misunderstand what | :06:42. | :06:45. | |
HS2 is about, it's a capacity project more than anything else. | :06:46. | :06:48. | |
Look at the West Coast main line, one of the busiest railways in | :06:49. | :06:54. | |
Europe, congested with commuter trains, freight trains, if it can | :06:55. | :06:58. | |
cope with the demand of the future we have to move the express trains | :06:59. | :07:01. | |
to a different line, get more freight off the roads onto the | :07:02. | :07:05. | |
railways, create more commuter space and do so by building a | :07:06. | :07:07. | |
state-of-the-art new high speed route we can be proud of. You don't | :07:08. | :07:12. | |
know the final cost and there are reports that the cost may be way | :07:13. | :07:15. | |
higher than is currently being talked about. So in a way, by saying | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
it's definitely going to happen, without knowing the cost, you are | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
saying - we will pay whatever it takes. We know what it's going to | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
cost. It's going to cost 55. ?55.7 million. Billion. Billion. You don't | :07:28. | :07:34. | |
know that until you've got builders to say they will build it and | :07:35. | :07:38. | |
guarantee that price. We've got a pretty good track record in recent | :07:39. | :07:42. | |
years. Look at cross-rail, it's going well. It's on time. It's on | :07:43. | :07:46. | |
budget. It proves that we in this country can deliver things. The | :07:47. | :07:50. | |
reports in the last few days, utterly spurrious. The argument this | :07:51. | :07:53. | |
is going to cost five times as much as HS 1, coming from people who have | :07:54. | :07:58. | |
no involvement in the project, I don't take that seriously at all. | :07:59. | :08:03. | |
You are saying, on this issue, there is complete clarity at the heart of | :08:04. | :08:09. | |
Government, Treasury, Cabinet, policy makers, civil servants - this | :08:10. | :08:12. | |
is going to happen, it must happen and everybody is on board. Not only | :08:13. | :08:15. | |
that, it is happening now. Is it your contention in other areas, the | :08:16. | :08:22. | |
Government is as decisive and clear about the direction it's going to | :08:23. | :08:26. | |
take. My answer to that is yes. What people look at is - does the Cabinet | :08:27. | :08:30. | |
ever have discussions and debates. Of course we do. We're not clones. | :08:31. | :08:33. | |
We have different views. We argue the case. We put forward our views. | :08:34. | :08:37. | |
We reach consensus and move ahead with it. That's the way Government | :08:38. | :08:41. | |
should work. I have been confused on quite a few areas as to what the | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
policy is. Let's start with one of yours, not rail - third runway at | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
Heathrow. Is that definitely going to happen? Yes, we are in the middle | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
of what is a 12-month process that leads to what is effectively | :08:55. | :08:58. | |
outlying planning permission. It's set out in statute. Set out in the | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
2008 planning act. It involves a period of public consultation, we're | :09:04. | :09:06. | |
going through that at the moment. We just completed that. There's a | :09:07. | :09:10. | |
period of Parliamentary scrutiny, slightly delayed because of the | :09:11. | :09:12. | |
general election. We will bring this to a vote in the first part of next | :09:13. | :09:16. | |
year. We'll table those proposals formally for Parliament to approve | :09:17. | :09:20. | |
in the first part of next year and as long as Parliament approves it, I | :09:21. | :09:23. | |
believe it will, the project will go ahead. No back tracking on that. No | :09:24. | :09:29. | |
back tracking. You've sorted out my confusion on that one. Public sector | :09:30. | :09:34. | |
pay - the policy as expressed was a 1% cap through to the year 2019/20. | :09:35. | :09:41. | |
Does that remain the Government's policy? As of today, that is the | :09:42. | :09:46. | |
case. I know that we've had debates and discussions in the public arena | :09:47. | :09:50. | |
politically about this. We have to find the right balance. One of the | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
things I'm proudest of, that our economic policy in the last seven | :09:55. | :09:58. | |
years has led to the lowest unemployment since the 1970s. Youth | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
unemployment has pretty much halved. I don't want to lose that progress | :10:03. | :10:05. | |
by letting go of the policies that have delivered it. But at the same | :10:06. | :10:10. | |
time, all of us want to spend more money on public services. All of us | :10:11. | :10:14. | |
want to spend more on public sector pay. Government is about getting the | :10:15. | :10:17. | |
balance between the two right. As to what we do - we've had a number of | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
messages from different circles in the last few weeks, as to what we | :10:23. | :10:25. | |
do, we will see when the budget comes. As of today beare determined | :10:26. | :10:30. | |
to see through the policy which brings down the deficit. We will | :10:31. | :10:35. | |
carry on with that focus of bringing down the deficit. Not quite the | :10:36. | :10:40. | |
clarity on that one as HS2 and the third runway, what is the policy, | :10:41. | :10:44. | |
the aspiration or the expectation on a transitional arrangement with the | :10:45. | :10:47. | |
EU? We've had Liam Fox saying well, it might have to be a few months. | :10:48. | :10:50. | |
The Chancellor saying it's not going to be a couple of months, we're | :10:51. | :10:53. | |
talking about something more like a couple of years or more. What is the | :10:54. | :11:00. | |
policy on transitional arrangement? Well, the exact detail of the | :11:01. | :11:05. | |
transition from in to out will come out of the negotiations. I can tell | :11:06. | :11:08. | |
you clearly what the Government's policy is on Brexit. Just the policy | :11:09. | :11:13. | |
on the transitional arrangement. Are you saying we basically don't know | :11:14. | :11:17. | |
whether we are seeking a transitional arrangement of two | :11:18. | :11:21. | |
months or two years? Is that - we don't even know what our starting | :11:22. | :11:26. | |
point is? All of this will depend on the position of the European Union | :11:27. | :11:31. | |
and how the negotiations go. It is perfectly plausible that we could | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
leave without a transitional arrangement, if the agreements were | :11:36. | :11:39. | |
in place for future trade, if the agreements were in place for the art | :11:40. | :11:42. | |
partnerships in the future. You can't really answer the question. | :11:43. | :11:46. | |
Nobody is expecting for there not to be a transitional arrangement. We | :11:47. | :11:49. | |
don't know what it's going to look like. We have a Philip Hammond verse | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
and Liam Fox version, they're completely different to each other. | :11:55. | :11:59. | |
It's quite possible we will end up with a transitional arrangement. So | :12:00. | :12:03. | |
there's a third position, that we won't have an arrangement. This is a | :12:04. | :12:09. | |
negotiation. Can you see why the world feels the Government is, | :12:10. | :12:12. | |
perhaps, less clear about its policies than you are about HS2? | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
That in all these areas, there has been a confusion on the part of | :12:19. | :12:22. | |
public and business as well. I don't accept the principle of confusion. | :12:23. | :12:25. | |
We have a clear objective - to leave the European Union but to leave it | :12:26. | :12:29. | |
on good terms, with good friends and neighbours, with as close as we can | :12:30. | :12:35. | |
possibly secure the current trading arrangements. Let me ask you one | :12:36. | :12:38. | |
last one, how is Theresa May - I know she's a friend of yours, you | :12:39. | :12:42. | |
were an early supporter in the leadership campaign last year - how | :12:43. | :12:46. | |
is she faring through all this? Is she coping with the stresses of | :12:47. | :12:51. | |
being buffeted around by so many different pressures? If you sat | :12:52. | :12:54. | |
around the Cabinet table before the general election, and you sat around | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
the Cabinet table after, you would see the same person sitting there | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
and the same exposed personality sitting there. Yes, we've had some | :13:04. | :13:07. | |
changes around Downing Street and changes to some of the ways in which | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
Government operates to reflect an understanding of some of the things | :13:12. | :13:14. | |
that went wrong a few months ago. I see someone who's in control of her | :13:15. | :13:18. | |
brief, who is very much doing the job of Prime Minister and will get | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
on with that and deliver a successful outcome to Brexit as well | :13:23. | :13:25. | |
as the other things we need to do as a nation. Thank you very much. | :13:26. | :13:31. | |
There was an announcement on schools funding today. An extra 1. ?1.3 | :13:32. | :13:36. | |
billion a year paid for in some arcane ways of taking money out of | :13:37. | :13:40. | |
the capital budget of the Education Department and the budget for free | :13:41. | :13:43. | |
schools. Now this should ensure there's no real terms reduction in | :13:44. | :13:46. | |
per pupil spending on schools. With me now is Angela Rayner, | :13:47. | :13:49. | |
the Shadow Education Secretary. Very good evening. Thanks for coming | :13:50. | :13:56. | |
in. It seems like the Government is listening and is responding to what | :13:57. | :14:01. | |
it has probably correctly perceived as a dissatisfaction with funding | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
for schools. Well, there was an amazing campaign led, extraordinary | :14:07. | :14:09. | |
campaign led by the parents of pupils concerned about the school | :14:10. | :14:12. | |
funding cuts and the head teachers, which was unprecedented in the way | :14:13. | :14:15. | |
that they've writ ton parents and said we can't afford to provide | :14:16. | :14:21. | |
school books and carry out the curriculum. They led the campaign. | :14:22. | :14:25. | |
The Government have took heed of that. Of course, they've cut school | :14:26. | :14:29. | |
budgets by 2. 8 billion. Those cuts are happening now. These are cuts | :14:30. | :14:33. | |
that were further planned in future years. They're putting money in. | :14:34. | :14:36. | |
It's churlish to complain, particularly, you didn't like the | :14:37. | :14:39. | |
free schools budget, did you? Well, I felt that some of the money that | :14:40. | :14:43. | |
was spent, if you look at the National Audit Office and the Public | :14:44. | :14:46. | |
Accounts Committee that have said about the money wasted on free | :14:47. | :14:49. | |
schools that weren't in the places we required them. I can't understand | :14:50. | :14:53. | |
why you don't see this as a good news day and say Theresa May, | :14:54. | :14:57. | |
Justine Greening, thank you very much. Unfortunately it's not new | :14:58. | :15:03. | |
money. 2. 8 million is still missing from that. The teachers have written | :15:04. | :15:06. | |
to parents saying we haven't got the money this year, they aren't getting | :15:07. | :15:09. | |
extra money this year. Come September, that money will still be | :15:10. | :15:13. | |
gone from their budgets, those teaching assistants will not be in | :15:14. | :15:17. | |
their jobs. Right. But they are on course to be by 2022, spending 4 | :15:18. | :15:23. | |
billion extra on schools. They're saying they're not going to cut | :15:24. | :15:26. | |
budgets any further. We have to look at the detail. There's no new money. | :15:27. | :15:30. | |
That's the important thing. They've taken it out of one hand - And put | :15:31. | :15:34. | |
it into another. They're not clear about where the money is coming | :15:35. | :15:37. | |
from. That's a concern. We know that we need school places. We know that | :15:38. | :15:41. | |
there's a crisis in terms of our class sizes are increasing. If | :15:42. | :15:44. | |
they're not creating free schools, which I prefer actually local | :15:45. | :15:47. | |
authority schools, then they need to be putting the money in there. | :15:48. | :15:51. | |
What's interesting and people have argued this against your party's | :15:52. | :15:56. | |
policies, if schools are in need of so much money, why would you have a | :15:57. | :16:00. | |
policy of spending twice as much than you were planning to spend on | :16:01. | :16:07. | |
schools on wealthier university graduates by aboll Loans, but | :16:08. | :16:13. | |
abolishing fees. That was the most expensive thing in your manifesto. | :16:14. | :16:16. | |
It was going to do nothing for schools. Over 50% of the money that | :16:17. | :16:20. | |
we raised in the manifesto went on our national education service. You | :16:21. | :16:23. | |
put 6 billion on schools, including school meals. We put 6 billion - The | :16:24. | :16:30. | |
Government are putting 4 billion. But 11 billion on university | :16:31. | :16:33. | |
students. Yes, because we didn't feel they should carry that burden. | :16:34. | :16:36. | |
We put money into early years. That's important. Saving the Sure | :16:37. | :16:40. | |
Start centres - Was that part of the 6 billion? No, it wasn't. It was | :16:41. | :16:45. | |
half a billion on top of that, which was to protect Sure Start centres, | :16:46. | :16:48. | |
we've lost 1200 of them. They've been lost since the coalition came | :16:49. | :16:53. | |
to power. I've been clear, if we had an extra ?1 it should go into early | :16:54. | :16:58. | |
years. I think the early years stuff - Just to come back to the point of | :16:59. | :17:02. | |
tuition fees, we've got a crisis in our country of skilled workers. | :17:03. | :17:05. | |
We're coming out of Europe and we need skilled workers. If we don't | :17:06. | :17:09. | |
start investing in young people and giving them those opportunities and | :17:10. | :17:12. | |
saddling with that debt is not the way to do it. We have to start | :17:13. | :17:17. | |
tackling that crisis. You broadly speaking accept the analysis of the | :17:18. | :17:20. | |
Office for Budget Responsibility which last week gave a warning on | :17:21. | :17:24. | |
fiscal risks basically. It came out with some interesting lines, in many | :17:25. | :17:30. | |
recent fiscal events giveaways today have been financed by takeaways | :17:31. | :17:33. | |
tomorrow. The risk is tomorrow never comes. New unfunded giveaways would | :17:34. | :17:40. | |
take the Government away from fiscal targets. Do you accept that or not? | :17:41. | :17:44. | |
Our manifesto was funded. We talked about investment in our future and | :17:45. | :17:48. | |
in our regions, the regional banking structure, about skills that our | :17:49. | :17:51. | |
regions require. Businesses tell me, when I go round to business Is, they | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
say to me, Angela, we don't have the skilled workforce that we require. | :17:56. | :17:58. | |
That's why they go to Europe and other places. One thing in your | :17:59. | :18:02. | |
manifesto, in the election that was not costed was the promise to | :18:03. | :18:07. | |
students who have already graduated and paid ?9,000 - Retrospective | :18:08. | :18:13. | |
debt. Yes, presumably that has gone then? | :18:14. | :18:19. | |
No, it was an aspiration Jeremy said, that he would want to look at, | :18:20. | :18:23. | |
but it was never in the manifesto. So don't bank on that happening if | :18:24. | :18:27. | |
you're one of those people? It is not a case of banking on it. That | :18:28. | :18:32. | |
?100 billion of debt is what this Government have saddled current | :18:33. | :18:35. | |
students with. If we were in government we would abolish tuition | :18:36. | :18:38. | |
fees, and we would look at that as an aspiration. We have not made any | :18:39. | :18:46. | |
promises on the ?100 billion of debt this Government has created on these | :18:47. | :18:49. | |
students of today. We have said if we get into power we would abolish | :18:50. | :18:51. | |
them from that day forth, and we would look at what we could do but | :18:52. | :18:54. | |
not make uncosted promises. Angela Rayner, thanks ever so much. Thanks. | :18:55. | :18:56. | |
Well, we've discussed today's politics, but how we got | :18:57. | :18:58. | |
here is, of course, the result of one of a spectacular | :18:59. | :19:01. | |
Theresa May wrongly thought she'd win big and called an election. | :19:02. | :19:05. | |
But in her defence, she was not alone. | :19:06. | :19:09. | |
The mainstream media thought the same, as did | :19:10. | :19:11. | |
most of the pollsters, the psephologists, most Tory | :19:12. | :19:13. | |
and Labour MPs, the bookies, Uncle Tom Cobley and all. | :19:14. | :19:15. | |
A second election in a row with a result we didn't call right. | :19:16. | :19:18. | |
You can add Brexit and Trump if you like too. | :19:19. | :19:22. | |
So the question for the political class is: | :19:23. | :19:24. | |
Does anybody understand the new rules of our | :19:25. | :19:26. | |
We are all pondering on this at the moment, none more | :19:27. | :19:37. | |
than Newsnight's editor, Ian Katz, who has been spending some | :19:38. | :19:40. | |
time trying to find out what went wrong with the forecasts. | :19:41. | :19:42. | |
A warning - there is a little bit of late night bad language. | :19:43. | :19:56. | |
These are disorienting times for those of us | :19:57. | :19:58. | |
in the business of covering, and practising, politics. | :19:59. | :20:00. | |
The old indicators don't seem to work any more. | :20:01. | :20:02. | |
Every election seems to bring another surprise. | :20:03. | :20:04. | |
It feels a bit like the instruments, the instincts we've used for decades | :20:05. | :20:21. | |
to navigate the political landscape, are broken or obsolete. | :20:22. | :20:24. | |
Has politics changed in some profound way many of us | :20:25. | :20:26. | |
Or have we just been through a series of freak political | :20:27. | :20:44. | |
For me, the challenge facing the media and political | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
establishments was brought home rather brutally, and quite | :20:49. | :20:50. | |
literally, by my 18-year-old daughter the morning | :20:51. | :20:51. | |
Remind me what you told me the day after the election. | :20:52. | :20:55. | |
That I'm not going to believe anything you say about politics ever | :20:56. | :20:58. | |
again because you've got everything wrong. | :20:59. | :21:00. | |
Fortunately, I wasn't the only one feeling a little sheepish | :21:01. | :21:02. | |
when Big Ben struck 10pm on June 8th. | :21:03. | :21:17. | |
DAVID DIMBLEBY: And what we're saying is the Conservatives | :21:18. | :21:19. | |
are the largest party - note, they don't have an overall | :21:20. | :21:22. | |
There was a little cry of despair, and my head hit the table. | :21:23. | :21:30. | |
You can't rule anything out in today's politics. | :21:31. | :21:36. | |
When you've been wrong about something, it's always a good | :21:37. | :21:39. | |
idea to go looking for someone who's been, well, wronger. | :21:40. | :21:41. | |
When it comes to the 2017 election, the highly respected | :21:42. | :21:43. | |
pollster Marten Boon got it spectacularly wrong. | :21:44. | :21:51. | |
In its election poll, his company ICM predicted | :21:52. | :21:53. | |
That's ten points more than they achieved. | :21:54. | :21:57. | |
We were bamboozled by the turnout, which we predicted wouldn't | :21:58. | :21:59. | |
And I have to hold up my hands and say that - | :22:00. | :22:05. | |
you know, I made a call and it was the wrong | :22:06. | :22:08. | |
call, and the result was a poor poll performance. | :22:09. | :22:10. | |
Why would anyone take the polls seriously again? | :22:11. | :22:12. | |
It's a very good question, and we have to move things on. | :22:13. | :22:19. | |
The problem for me is that the techniques | :22:20. | :22:27. | |
which didn't work in 2015 - ie we undershot the Labour score, | :22:28. | :22:30. | |
as historically we've done as pollsters going back almost | :22:31. | :22:46. | |
And indeed the techniques which the likes of myself applied | :22:47. | :22:50. | |
in 2017 wouldn't have worked retrospectively in 2015. | :22:51. | :22:52. | |
If you were in the schedule and you are a politician or a CEO | :22:53. | :22:55. | |
of a company which had failed in this way, we'd be saying, | :22:56. | :22:58. | |
I thought about resigning publicly, after 2015 actually - | :22:59. | :23:02. | |
I openly considered whether it was worthwhile | :23:03. | :23:04. | |
subjecting my company ICM to the brickbats of misfortune | :23:05. | :23:06. | |
We in ICM and we in industry do need to think seriously | :23:07. | :23:16. | |
about whether classical orthodox polling techniques are something | :23:17. | :23:18. | |
Another person on the long list of those admitting, | :23:19. | :23:27. | |
through somewhat gritted teeth, that they underestimated Corbyn | :23:28. | :23:29. | |
Back in April she said Corbyn staying on as party leader would be | :23:30. | :23:34. | |
And do I have to re-evaluate the way that I am about politics? | :23:35. | :23:40. | |
After shock election results, news organisations like the BBC tend | :23:41. | :23:56. | |
to say, "If only we'd listened more carefully to what was | :23:57. | :23:59. | |
The trouble is, says Jess, what she was hearing was very | :24:00. | :24:02. | |
What we potentially missed in classic campaigning | :24:03. | :24:06. | |
and classic polling - I imagine this is how | :24:07. | :24:12. | |
they do the polling - is the people we're talking to. | :24:13. | :24:15. | |
And still I'm driving around my constituency thinking, | :24:16. | :24:17. | |
Like, I want to find those people and know exactly why they went | :24:18. | :24:23. | |
out and voted Labour, because there are definitely | :24:24. | :24:25. | |
people who'd never voted before, younger people - | :24:26. | :24:26. | |
we just weren't talking to the right people. | :24:27. | :24:29. | |
We always go back and talk to the Labour promise, | :24:30. | :24:31. | |
You wouldn't waste your time in an election campaign bothering | :24:32. | :24:38. | |
with people who have no voting record. | :24:39. | :24:39. | |
Someone who isn't reaching for the sackcloth and ashes just yet | :24:40. | :24:42. | |
if ITV's political editor Robert Peston. | :24:43. | :24:47. | |
He may not have seen the election result coming, | :24:48. | :24:49. | |
but he can claim to have been more upbeat about Corbyn's | :24:50. | :24:52. | |
The old rules have gone, and we've got to try and make sense | :24:53. | :24:57. | |
And the truthful answer is that, you know, we are all | :24:58. | :25:00. | |
Millions and millions of people in rich countries are saying | :25:01. | :25:06. | |
that the way things worked in the past cannot go on. | :25:07. | :25:09. | |
Their interests are not being served by the establishment. | :25:10. | :25:11. | |
Now, that doesn't mean that Jeremy Corbyn definitely | :25:12. | :25:13. | |
becomes Prime Minister, but it absolutely means | :25:14. | :25:14. | |
that the old rules are useless in making an assessment | :25:15. | :25:17. | |
about whether he's going to be Prime Minister. | :25:18. | :25:19. | |
Where were you when you heard the exit poll for last month's election? | :25:20. | :25:30. | |
I was at home, watching the election. | :25:31. | :25:38. | |
Did you shed a little tear like Theresa May? | :25:39. | :25:40. | |
The man who, perhaps more than any other, | :25:41. | :25:49. | |
could claim to have divined the rules of modern | :25:50. | :25:51. | |
His Tory successors David Cameron and George Osborne revered his | :25:52. | :25:55. | |
political judgment so much they called him the master. | :25:56. | :25:58. | |
You've obviously reflected quite a lot over the last month | :25:59. | :26:00. | |
Was there anything about it which made you question what you thought | :26:01. | :26:17. | |
In the sense that, and not just this election result, but Brexit, | :26:18. | :26:23. | |
the Trump victory in the US, what's happening all over Europe. | :26:24. | :26:29. | |
Did you see any of the other two coming, by the way? | :26:30. | :26:31. | |
For most of my political life, I've been saying, I think this | :26:32. | :26:39. | |
is the right way to go, and what's more it's the only | :26:40. | :26:42. | |
I have to say, no, I think it's possible you end up | :26:43. | :26:47. | |
with Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. | :26:48. | :26:49. | |
So you except that he could possibly win on the platform he is on? | :26:50. | :26:52. | |
I think you can't rule anything out in today's politics. | :26:53. | :26:54. | |
But it doesn't stop me believing that if we deliver Brexit | :26:55. | :26:57. | |
and at the same time are delivering the programme that he has | :26:58. | :27:00. | |
at the moment, unreconstructed, unchanged, we will be in for a very | :27:01. | :27:03. | |
I still believe the surest route is through the centre. | :27:04. | :27:13. | |
But I think you can't say in today's politics, | :27:14. | :27:17. | |
particularly if you've gone through three things - | :27:18. | :27:19. | |
the election of Donald Trump, Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn doing so well | :27:20. | :27:22. | |
- and if you're in my position and you haven't got those | :27:23. | :27:28. | |
things right, you've got to accept it's possible that | :27:29. | :27:30. | |
But, no, I haven't changed my basic view, and why should I? | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
But that's a really interesting thing, because the events | :27:35. | :27:38. | |
of the last years haven't challenged any of your beliefs. | :27:39. | :27:41. | |
I mean, I find myself looking at some of these things, thinking, | :27:42. | :27:44. | |
I don't know what I thought I knew about politics. | :27:45. | :27:47. | |
No, no, you've got to distinguish between two separate things. | :27:48. | :27:53. | |
One is accepting that there is something going on in politics | :27:54. | :27:55. | |
that you didn't get and don't fully understand. | :27:56. | :27:58. | |
We are completely on the same line with that - I agree. | :27:59. | :28:01. | |
That's why I'm studying it, very hard. | :28:02. | :28:03. | |
The other thing is to work out what you believe in. | :28:04. | :28:06. | |
Does the fact that the British people voted for Brexit mean that | :28:07. | :28:08. | |
No, I think it's a disastrous mistake for the country. | :28:09. | :28:12. | |
Not everyone is flagellating themselves are getting yet another | :28:13. | :28:14. | |
A few, like the Cole missed Rod Liddle, are feeling quite smug. -- | :28:15. | :28:37. | |
like the columnist Rod Liddle. The suggested before the election that | :28:38. | :28:42. | |
it would leave us probably where we are. Don't think because you believe | :28:43. | :28:49. | |
Jeremy Corbyn is our jackass that everyone else in the country | :28:50. | :28:53. | |
believes Jeremy Corbyn is a jackass. It starts with not following the | :28:54. | :28:56. | |
herd, but even he admits his record is not entirely unblemished. I got | :28:57. | :29:03. | |
Brexit wrong. Much as I voted to leave, I thought that probably in | :29:04. | :29:06. | |
the end we would vote to remain, and I think most people thought that. | :29:07. | :29:11. | |
You got your own patch wrong intent as well? Yes. Middlesbrough, South, | :29:12. | :29:21. | |
because it was marginal ball, and -- marginal and we knew Canterbury was | :29:22. | :29:26. | |
a safe seat for the Tories, so we got that one wrong. Bloody students. | :29:27. | :29:34. | |
Ah, yes, those pesky students, assuming they would stay in and | :29:35. | :29:39. | |
watch Love Island rather than going out to vote is another reason we got | :29:40. | :29:43. | |
it wrong on June eight. Matt Turner was to run Evolve Politics, one of | :29:44. | :29:49. | |
the handful of Corbyn supporting website that claims to have their | :29:50. | :29:52. | |
fingers closer to the national polls than the mainstream media. He has | :29:53. | :29:56. | |
ventured into the heart of the beast to explain what he could see that we | :29:57. | :30:03. | |
couldn't. We had our ear to the ground. We give a more accurate | :30:04. | :30:06. | |
reflection of what people were actually feeling. The same could | :30:07. | :30:11. | |
probably be said of the new up-and-coming right-wing press | :30:12. | :30:14. | |
sites. People accused us of being in a bubble when we accurately | :30:15. | :30:17. | |
predicted a hung parliament. If anything, the rules have changed. | :30:18. | :30:20. | |
Perhaps two years ago when we started we were living in a Labour | :30:21. | :30:24. | |
supporting bubbles, but certainly not now. The week before the | :30:25. | :30:28. | |
election we reached 70 million people on Facebook. Over a million | :30:29. | :30:33. | |
unique hits to our site. -- 17 million people. If anyone I think it | :30:34. | :30:36. | |
is the Westminster media who are now in that bubble. I never knew an | :30:37. | :30:43. | |
election where I saw such a gap between what was in the newspapers | :30:44. | :30:45. | |
and what people were talking about. I mean, you know I spend way too | :30:46. | :30:48. | |
much time on social media, but what people were talking about on social | :30:49. | :30:54. | |
media... The whole debate was going on, on social media, different forms | :30:55. | :30:57. | |
of people interacting with each other, particularly young people, | :30:58. | :31:00. | |
that really does not hit the mainstream media at all, so that is | :31:01. | :31:04. | |
a lesson learned. So how should we navigate our way through this new | :31:05. | :31:09. | |
political landscape? Acknowledging that we did not see Jeremy Corbyn's | :31:10. | :31:13. | |
success coming is not the same as saying our coverage was not much | :31:14. | :31:17. | |
good. In fact, there were lots of indications in Newsnight's reporting | :31:18. | :31:20. | |
that he was doing much better than the polls suggested. The trouble is | :31:21. | :31:25. | |
when so many voices are saying the opposite, it is hard not to doubt | :31:26. | :31:30. | |
the evidence in front of you. For example, getting these enormous | :31:31. | :31:33. | |
crowd of enthusiastic people coming to listen to him and,, you know, you | :31:34. | :31:38. | |
would routinely be told, well, of course, that is not a representative | :31:39. | :31:42. | |
sample. It is stage-managed, you know. There are millions of voters | :31:43. | :31:46. | |
and these are best a couple of thousand. The enthusiasm he was | :31:47. | :31:51. | |
generating was real. Right? And yet almost nobody believed it. So we | :31:52. | :31:55. | |
have just got to get better at having slightly open minds and | :31:56. | :31:58. | |
saying, I am seeing something quite extraordinary here and it is | :31:59. | :32:01. | |
different from what we saw in previous elections. It means | :32:02. | :32:06. | |
something. All those journalists and pollsters left feeling disorientated | :32:07. | :32:09. | |
after last month's result can comfort themselves with one thing. | :32:10. | :32:13. | |
Most politicians, including those around Jeremy Corbyn, were just as | :32:14. | :32:19. | |
surprised by it. In fact, one source told me that until minutes before | :32:20. | :32:24. | |
the exit poll, senior Labour figures had been telling him they expected | :32:25. | :32:28. | |
an increased Tory majority of as many as 60 seats. In the two weeks | :32:29. | :32:34. | |
before the actual day of the poll I was saying Labour were going to do a | :32:35. | :32:37. | |
hell of a lot better than most people thought, but did I think | :32:38. | :32:40. | |
there was going to be a hung parliament? No! Because in the way | :32:41. | :32:46. | |
that I do as a normal journalist, I spoke to senior Tories, spoke to | :32:47. | :32:52. | |
senior Labour, half an hour before I got, you know, the exit poll. Labour | :32:53. | :32:57. | |
was expecting a reasonable majority for Theresa May and the Tories were | :32:58. | :33:02. | |
expecting a reasonable majority for Theresa May, and the big mistake I | :33:03. | :33:07. | |
made was costing them! Do you think there has been a structural forever | :33:08. | :33:12. | |
change that we haven't quite got in our heads and? -- the big mistake I | :33:13. | :33:17. | |
made was trusting them. Or do you think the normal rules will apply | :33:18. | :33:22. | |
again? I think it is a really difficult question and I am not sure | :33:23. | :33:25. | |
what the answer is, so what I am saying is sort of... It is a work in | :33:26. | :33:32. | |
progress in terms of my thinking. Firstly, I think that social media, | :33:33. | :33:40. | |
its interaction with a polarised fragmented partisan conventional | :33:41. | :33:45. | |
media is creating a very divided politics, in which populism of left | :33:46. | :33:48. | |
and right can gain a foothold very easily. That is one change. | :33:49. | :33:53. | |
Secondly, I think after the financial crisis, there is a real | :33:54. | :33:59. | |
feeling with people that globalisation just forces things on | :34:00. | :34:03. | |
and many people feel powerless and left behind, and that has got to be | :34:04. | :34:07. | |
addressed. So those two things have changed. What in my view has not | :34:08. | :34:10. | |
changed is that the only things that will actually work, I mean, whether | :34:11. | :34:15. | |
people vote for them or not by the way is another matter, but only | :34:16. | :34:19. | |
things that will actually work as a modern policy agenda that will be | :34:20. | :34:20. | |
from a centre prone position. The fact that a man famously | :34:21. | :34:29. | |
unencumbered by self-doubt is struggling make sense of the | :34:30. | :34:34. | |
political landscape is a measure of the uncharted territory we have | :34:35. | :34:36. | |
found ourselves in. Whether the terrain of politics has changed for | :34:37. | :34:41. | |
good or whether we've been on an eventful detour, may be the most | :34:42. | :34:44. | |
pressing political question of our time. Whatever the answer, you'd be | :34:45. | :34:49. | |
sensible to ignore political predictions for the foreseeable | :34:50. | :34:51. | |
future. And I, for one, won't be making any. | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
And you can see a longer version of that interview | :34:56. | :34:59. | |
Ian did with Tony Blair on the Newsnight Youtube channel. | :35:00. | :35:01. | |
Three years ago, an American admiral gave a commencement address | :35:02. | :35:09. | |
to the graduating students of the University | :35:10. | :35:10. | |
It was ten tips for a better life, picked up from his training | :35:11. | :35:16. | |
This was part of the first tip - make your bed when you get up | :35:17. | :35:25. | |
and start the day with a task completed. | :35:26. | :35:28. | |
If you make your bed every morning, you will have accomplished | :35:29. | :35:31. | |
It will give you a small sense of pride and it will encourage | :35:32. | :35:37. | |
you to do another task, and another, and another. | :35:38. | :35:41. | |
And by the end of the day that one task completed will have turned | :35:42. | :35:45. | |
Making your bed will also reinforce the fact that the little | :35:46. | :35:50. | |
If you can't do the little things right, you'll never be able to do | :35:51. | :35:55. | |
The speech - which was full of stories of the brutal training | :35:56. | :36:00. | |
of the Navy SEALS special forces - became something of | :36:01. | :36:03. | |
So much so, that it is now a book, called Make Your Bed. | :36:04. | :36:09. | |
And I'm joined by the man who gave that speech Admiral William McRaven, | :36:10. | :36:13. | |
who is not only a retired admiral but was the man in overall charge | :36:14. | :36:17. | |
of American special operations forces when they took out | :36:18. | :36:19. | |
Very good evening to you. Thanks. Osama bin Laden, one of the most | :36:20. | :36:36. | |
important points in your career, any regrets? No, I think the mission | :36:37. | :36:40. | |
went as we planned it, with one exception. We lost a helicopter on | :36:41. | :36:44. | |
the compound. But having said that, you always plan for worst case | :36:45. | :36:50. | |
scenarios. We had a Plan A, B, C and D. Plan A went askew. We immediately | :36:51. | :36:56. | |
jumped into Plan B. We got our man. Was there ever any chance that he | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
would have come back alive, captured as opposed to killed? Absolutely. A | :37:01. | :37:03. | |
lot of people feel this was a kill-only mission. That was not the | :37:04. | :37:07. | |
case. The strict rules of engagement said that if he is clearly not a | :37:08. | :37:12. | |
threat, then you have to capture him, you can't just kill him. But | :37:13. | :37:16. | |
conversely, I made sure the guys understood if they felt that there | :37:17. | :37:20. | |
was at all a threat, that they had to make the right decision and they | :37:21. | :37:23. | |
have to do that in a split second. So you know, you're coming up onto | :37:24. | :37:27. | |
the third floor, people are moving around, you're on night vision | :37:28. | :37:30. | |
goggles, a lot of things are happening. They made the right | :37:31. | :37:33. | |
decision. You give them that license because they have to take the risk. | :37:34. | :37:36. | |
They protect themselves first. Quite a few Special Forces. After 9/11, | :37:37. | :37:41. | |
the Americans were accused of lawless, reckless behaviour. There | :37:42. | :37:45. | |
have been cases here where there have been charge that's they have | :37:46. | :37:49. | |
killed people, maybe in cold blood, rather than capturing them for | :37:50. | :37:52. | |
various reasons. I believe the Australians have had some issues as | :37:53. | :37:56. | |
well. Is there a culture, of course you give these people discretion, | :37:57. | :38:00. | |
can that turn into a problem where they abuse the power that you have | :38:01. | :38:05. | |
given them? Well, I think in any wartime scenario you have that | :38:06. | :38:08. | |
potential for the soldiers on the ground to abuse the flexibility and | :38:09. | :38:12. | |
latitude you give them. What I used to do, I routinely went out on | :38:13. | :38:16. | |
missions with my forces, so I understood exactly what they were | :38:17. | :38:19. | |
doing and so that they knew that I was kind of keeping a watchful eye | :38:20. | :38:23. | |
over them. I travelled around on a weekly basis to meet with my units. | :38:24. | :38:27. | |
I kept my ear to the ground. Whenever we thought that there might | :38:28. | :38:30. | |
be the potential for some sort of abuse, we investigated it quickly to | :38:31. | :38:34. | |
make sure that there was no bad behaviour. And punished - And held | :38:35. | :38:39. | |
people responsible, absolutely. Let's speak more about general | :38:40. | :38:42. | |
things. You were watching that film with Tony Blair in with me, what was | :38:43. | :38:47. | |
your impression as you watched that, you could probably have run that in | :38:48. | :38:51. | |
the United States. We had the same situation with our past election as | :38:52. | :38:54. | |
there were concerns about the polls. Clearly I think most of the polls | :38:55. | :38:58. | |
suggested that Hillary Clinton would win. Then we have Donald Trump as | :38:59. | :39:03. | |
the president. But I don't think that there was anything necessity | :39:04. | :39:13. | |
fairious amongst -- nefarious amongst the pollsters. They weren't | :39:14. | :39:19. | |
watching the meetings below the surface and got it wrong. Commander | :39:20. | :39:21. | |
in chief is Donald Trump. America, in fact like the United Kingdom, is | :39:22. | :39:26. | |
pretty divided. Does that make it harder for the armed forces, do you | :39:27. | :39:29. | |
think, to serve the country? Not at all. I served for both President | :39:30. | :39:37. | |
Bush and President Obama and I didn't agree with them on a lot of | :39:38. | :39:41. | |
things. But you have a responsibility as a man or woman in | :39:42. | :39:43. | |
uniform to support the Commander in Chief. The Commander in Chief | :39:44. | :39:47. | |
represents the people of the United States and so, I don't think the | :39:48. | :39:51. | |
soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines have any concern about | :39:52. | :39:54. | |
supporting this president or any president. I mean, he's been quite | :39:55. | :39:59. | |
negative about certain things. You know, he mocked McCane's war record. | :40:00. | :40:05. | |
He picked on the Khan family, whose child was, boy was killed in action. | :40:06. | :40:11. | |
Right. What is the Army feeling about serving this man? I think the | :40:12. | :40:16. | |
bigger issue for the soldiers on the ground, in the fox hole, if you | :40:17. | :40:19. | |
will, are they going to get the resources they need to do their job. | :40:20. | :40:24. | |
What the difference between President Trump and candidate Trump, | :40:25. | :40:29. | |
he has said he is going to increase the military budget, so your viewers | :40:30. | :40:33. | |
may not be aware, for seven years we've been under sequestration. The | :40:34. | :40:41. | |
president has said he will open that up and give the military the | :40:42. | :40:45. | |
resources they need. The other thing that gives the soldiers great trust | :40:46. | :40:50. | |
and confidence is that we have, as the Secretary of Defence, former | :40:51. | :40:54. | |
marine general Jim Matis, a wonderful officer. Most of the | :40:55. | :40:56. | |
day-to-day decisions come to the Secretary of Defence. I need very | :40:57. | :41:03. | |
finally to ask you about why, it is basically a-help book, why so happen | :41:04. | :41:08. | |
-- self-help book, why so popular? The ten lessons I talked about when | :41:09. | :41:15. | |
I was trained, are universal lessons. Start the day with a task | :41:16. | :41:19. | |
is important. Don't quit just because times get tough is | :41:20. | :41:22. | |
important. Making sure that you understand that we all go through | :41:23. | :41:26. | |
this. Did t doesn't matter whether you've spent a day in uniform, | :41:27. | :41:30. | |
doesn't matter if you're a guy or a Goole, they are important -- gal, | :41:31. | :41:33. | |
they are important lessons. Thank you very much. | :41:34. | :41:37. | |
Just a quick look at the Times' front page: We were talking about | :41:38. | :41:42. | |
back biting in the Cabinet. May urged to sack her donkey ministers. | :41:43. | :41:46. | |
Squabbling Cabinet must unite PM will say. Meanwhile some of the back | :41:47. | :41:51. | |
biting is continuing. The Guardian leading on the schools there. | :41:52. | :41:55. | |
Getting a little bit extra money. That is all we have time for today. | :41:56. | :41:58. | |
I'm back tomorrow. Until then, good night. | :41:59. | :42:11. | |
Good evening, temperatures will continue to climb during tomorrow. | :42:12. | :42:15. | |
With the | :42:16. | :42:16. |