18/07/2017 Newsnight


18/07/2017

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines. With Evan Davis.


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Transcript


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Against the odds and against the experts,

:00:07.:00:07.

And this week, he passes the six-month mark.

:00:08.:00:21.

We look back to ask - is he as bad as his critics feared,

:00:22.:00:24.

Has he settled into the job as a more conventional president,

:00:25.:00:29.

We'll examine the record so far on domestic and foreign

:00:30.:00:36.

policy, and look at how the White House has been working.

:00:37.:00:40.

Also tonight, banks beware - is consumer borrowing

:00:41.:00:43.

It is an amber warning light for us. Our job is to make sure the lenders

:00:44.:00:55.

are safe and the main risk to the wider economy comes through the

:00:56.:00:57.

lenders rather than the borrowers. in the past by stories

:00:58.:00:59.

of underage sex. Now he's accused of running some

:01:00.:01:11.

kind of abusive cult. We'll hear from the reporter

:01:12.:01:13.

making the claims. Some never thought he'd make it this

:01:14.:01:21.

far, but Donald Trump is still president and this week,

:01:22.:01:27.

he can say he is six months in. Torrid months, with lots

:01:28.:01:30.

questioning his competence, his legitimacy and his

:01:31.:01:32.

conflicts of interest. But he's still standing

:01:33.:01:36.

and contrary to some How is he doing by the standards

:01:37.:01:38.

of those who never wanted him? And by the standards

:01:39.:01:46.

of those who did? From this day forward,

:01:47.:01:49.

it's going to be only America The Secretary of Homeland Security,

:01:50.:01:53.

working with myself and my staff, will begin immediate construction

:01:54.:02:11.

of a border wall. Michael Flynn, General Flynn,

:02:12.:02:23.

is a wonderful man. I think he's been treated very,

:02:24.:02:27.

very unfairly by the media. Because he wasn't doing

:02:28.:02:31.

a good job, very simply. No politician in history,

:02:32.:02:41.

and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse

:02:42.:02:56.

or more unfairly. I got elected to serve the forgotten

:02:57.:03:05.

men and women of our country, To really prosper, we must lower

:03:06.:03:27.

the tax on business. No-one can look back on the election

:03:28.:03:50.

campaign and see anything other than a Trump victory

:03:51.:03:53.

that was remarkable, often a result of sewing anger

:03:54.:03:57.

and discontent and by setting up His was a victory by the ultimate

:03:58.:04:01.

populist playbook; but it is one thing to win an election with that

:04:02.:04:08.

kind of campaign, quite At times, he's seemed more

:04:09.:04:10.

comfortable in election-type rallies with crowds of adoring supporters

:04:11.:04:16.

in front of him, than he has His administration is an extreme

:04:17.:04:18.

experiment in populist policy making, and it has met challenges

:04:19.:04:24.

such as in the reform Just this afternoon,

:04:25.:04:28.

the idea of repealing The idea now is to let it fail,

:04:29.:04:32.

and then return to it. Let's start by thinking

:04:33.:04:39.

a bit about the conduct Joshua Green is the author

:04:40.:04:41.

of "Devil's Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump and the Storming

:04:42.:04:45.

of the Presidency". I spoke to him

:04:46.:04:47.

a little earlier from New York. Is it right to say that

:04:48.:04:51.

there are two Trumps - or at least that the one Trump

:04:52.:04:54.

is pulled in different directions In the White House he's really

:04:55.:04:57.

split between two groups, the nationalist camp

:04:58.:05:02.

led by Steve Bannon, who have very hard right,

:05:03.:05:05.

aggressive, populist impulses. That is the Donald Trump that ran

:05:06.:05:08.

and won the presidency. But then on the other hand

:05:09.:05:13.

there is a Trump who comes out of the world of New York real

:05:14.:05:17.

estate, is very insecure, has always longed for the approval

:05:18.:05:21.

of the great power brokers on Wall Street and

:05:22.:05:23.

American government. Trump has stocked his administration

:05:24.:05:27.

with many of these people, who generally fall under

:05:28.:05:29.

the rubric of globalists. So this would include his National

:05:30.:05:33.

Economic Council chairman Gary Cohn, His Treasury Secretary,

:05:34.:05:36.

Steven Mnuchin, also The war within the White House

:05:37.:05:40.

during Donald Trump's first six months has been a pitched battle

:05:41.:05:46.

between nationalists and globalists. Well, nobody is really

:05:47.:05:49.

winning is the problem. Trump's legislative agenda has

:05:50.:05:58.

all but collapsed with the death So while there have been some

:05:59.:06:01.

victories for Bannon's nationalists, primarily cracking down

:06:02.:06:07.

on illegal immigration, taking a much harder line

:06:08.:06:09.

against immigrants generally, there haven't been a lot

:06:10.:06:12.

of victories for either camp and that's a subject of great

:06:13.:06:19.

concern to everybody Because when things don't go well,

:06:20.:06:21.

President Trump reacts very badly. One of the concerns was there

:06:22.:06:26.

was a sort of fruitcake fringe In fact, Bannon was sometimes

:06:27.:06:29.

attached to that and in your book you talk about Robert Mercer,

:06:30.:06:37.

the hedge fund guy who financed Bannon and Breitbart,

:06:38.:06:41.

who certainly had some wacky people, let's say, who he was

:06:42.:06:44.

supporting beforehand. Have the "grown-ups"

:06:45.:06:50.

mostly got a grip in No, I don't think that anybody,

:06:51.:06:53.

any of Trump's camps of advisers ever have a solid grip on Trump

:06:54.:07:01.

for very long. The cycle we've seen again

:07:02.:07:07.

and again, we saw this during the campaign,

:07:08.:07:09.

we've certainly seen it in the White House,

:07:10.:07:13.

is that for a time, advisers will be able to contain Trump,

:07:14.:07:16.

to stop him from tweeting or saying or doing outrageous

:07:17.:07:18.

things but invariably, Trump

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loses his patience and will go off director James Comey,

:07:21.:07:22.

that plunges his administration

:07:23.:07:29.

back into chaos. And chaos has been pretty

:07:30.:07:37.

much the natural state of Trump's White House these

:07:38.:07:40.

first six months. Are there any forces there who think

:07:41.:07:41.

chaos is kind of a good It wants to kick things around,

:07:42.:07:45.

it wants to change everything, Bannon, Steve Bannon

:07:46.:07:48.

has always been a big believer that chaos is good,

:07:49.:07:51.

it helps Trump. It was during the campaign

:07:52.:07:55.

where Trump unleashed The problem is that when you're

:07:56.:07:56.

in the White House, when you're the president,

:07:57.:08:03.

chaos doesn't actually What Trump needs to do

:08:04.:08:05.

and what he has so far been unable to do is organise a congressional

:08:06.:08:12.

coalition of his own party members Tell us a little about egos

:08:13.:08:14.

in the White House. It was said that Bannon and Trump

:08:15.:08:21.

fell out when Bannon made Donald Trump is and always has been

:08:22.:08:24.

deeply insecure, especially And after he was elected

:08:25.:08:31.

and Steve Bannon entered the popular imagination as this kind of dark

:08:32.:08:38.

Rasputin, pulling Trump's strings, Saturday Night Live referring to him

:08:39.:08:45.

as "President Bannon," kind of a running joke, Trump

:08:46.:08:49.

himself took great offence at that, The only thing that's brought him

:08:50.:08:52.

back in is the Russia scandal. The fact that has entangled

:08:53.:09:00.

so many of Trump's senior advisers. Do you think that by the end of four

:09:01.:09:04.

years there will be something which we will identify,

:09:05.:09:14.

be able to call Trumpism that will be the Trump doctrine

:09:15.:09:16.

or the Trump way? I think Trump would like there to be

:09:17.:09:19.

but it isn't exactly I think Steve Bannon and Trump

:09:20.:09:21.

the candidate had a pretty clear idea of what Trumpism would be,

:09:22.:09:26.

and it would be a different third A populism that was less harsh,

:09:27.:09:29.

more geared towards working-class ordinary American voters

:09:30.:09:32.

than the typical Republican The problem is as soon as Trump got

:09:33.:09:34.

into the White House, he took up the same conservative

:09:35.:09:40.

agenda of the politicians who he'd just vanquished

:09:41.:09:45.

in the GOP nomination fight, and he has wound up in a cul-de-sac

:09:46.:09:49.

where he can't pass the legislation that's not popular and so it's not

:09:50.:09:53.

clear that Trump knows Joshua Green, thank

:09:54.:09:56.

you very much indeed. Many of those who voted

:09:57.:09:59.

for Trump, voted for change. We sent a camera out to Alexandria

:10:00.:10:06.

in Virginia to see what Trump supporters themselves cite

:10:07.:10:15.

as his biggest achievement to date - The best thing, I think he's

:10:16.:10:17.

really trying to like, tighten the borders and focus

:10:18.:10:26.

on security a little bit more. I'm a Trump guy but I'm not

:10:27.:10:29.

a Trump behaviour guy. But he's doing what he said

:10:30.:10:31.

he was going to do and the Republican Congress is not

:10:32.:10:35.

allowing him to do, But other than that,

:10:36.:10:37.

he's doing what no-one thought he could do and no-one

:10:38.:10:44.

expected him to do. We just like all of his stands

:10:45.:10:46.

in the Middle East, all his opinions and sides

:10:47.:10:50.

and, you know. We stand by him not

:10:51.:10:56.

doing the France Accord. Because we don't really

:10:57.:10:59.

believe in climate change. I don't know, starting work

:11:00.:11:05.

on the immigration thing and the tax, getting

:11:06.:11:11.

a new tax law started. I think health-care needs

:11:12.:11:13.

to change drastically. Of course foreign relations

:11:14.:11:23.

I think need to improve. And jobs, I'm happy

:11:24.:11:25.

that the stock market I think that might be one

:11:26.:11:27.

of the best things he's done Voices from Trump

:11:28.:11:35.

supporters in Virginia. Well, Anne Applebaum

:11:36.:11:42.

is a visiting professor at the London School

:11:43.:11:43.

of Economics Institute of Global Affairs and

:11:44.:11:45.

a Washington Post columnist. Elisabeth Bumiller writes

:11:46.:11:47.

on politics for the New York Times. Elisabeth, you're going to be our

:11:48.:11:57.

domestic affairs policy and -- person. You were something of a

:11:58.:12:02.

critic, you were not a fan in the election campaign. As he settled

:12:03.:12:05.

into something more conventional than you expected? No, the trouble

:12:06.:12:11.

with Trump, as your previous interview alluded, is that he hasn't

:12:12.:12:15.

settled into anything at all. Almost every statement he makes on foreign

:12:16.:12:19.

policy can be heard in two ways, he contradicts himself. On Europe, if

:12:20.:12:24.

you listen to the speech he made in Warsaw ten days ago, you can hear

:12:25.:12:28.

the different strands of his administration in the speech. There

:12:29.:12:34.

was a nationalist almost apocalyptic stance, against dark forces, and

:12:35.:12:41.

something that sounded like an ordinary Republican talking about

:12:42.:12:45.

Nato. You can choose which of those strands you would like to hear. Does

:12:46.:12:53.

that implied there is a state of paralysis? It sounds like a child in

:12:54.:12:58.

a car who can turn on the windscreen wipers and so one but doesn't know

:12:59.:13:05.

how to make the cargo, it has been said. -- make the car go. But he

:13:06.:13:11.

hasn't crashed the car. We don't have people to do the foreign

:13:12.:13:15.

policy, he hasn't selected people to work for him and we don't have any

:13:16.:13:19.

clear direction. He has withdrawn from a few things, he isn't leading

:13:20.:13:24.

anywhere. His policy in Syria is no different to Obama's. Europe, he has

:13:25.:13:30.

said different things at different times and in China he appears to be

:13:31.:13:38.

directed by President Xi. Elizabeth, domestic policy, there has been this

:13:39.:13:41.

huge setback for his agenda today on health care reform. What do you

:13:42.:13:47.

think his supporters will feel about the domestic agenda and how far it's

:13:48.:13:52.

gone? I think they would say that he hasn't done much of what he promised

:13:53.:13:56.

to do and that they would blame Congress for it, the Democrats. He

:13:57.:14:03.

has, he's big domestic policies were immigration, building a wall,

:14:04.:14:10.

repealing health care, and he has, you know, he has not improved the

:14:11.:14:18.

economy. On health care it has been a big disappointment to him today

:14:19.:14:22.

because the Senate bill failed and really there is no way forward. It

:14:23.:14:28.

failed in large part because there were deep divisions within the

:14:29.:14:32.

Republican party, a number of moderate Republicans couldn't vote

:14:33.:14:35.

for it because of the deep cuts in Medicaid in their states. At the

:14:36.:14:40.

same time, some Conservative Republicans were opposed because it

:14:41.:14:48.

did not cut Medicaid enough. He's been a victim of the divisions

:14:49.:14:52.

within his own party as well as the fact that the Democrats oppose him.

:14:53.:14:58.

But why hasn't he just built a semblance of war, a piece of the

:14:59.:15:04.

war? It can't take somebody that long to go in and just show them...

:15:05.:15:11.

Because we have a system where there is Congress and the White House and

:15:12.:15:15.

the Supreme Court, and Congress appropriates the money for such

:15:16.:15:18.

things and Congress did not give him the money in the Budget. They gave

:15:19.:15:24.

him just enough to repair about 70 miles of the wall, which is

:15:25.:15:31.

repairing a fence on the border. The border is over 2000 miles long. So

:15:32.:15:36.

he keeps saying he wants the wall. In fact it's going to be very

:15:37.:15:42.

difficult financially to build it. Right. Is it the situation,

:15:43.:15:47.

Elizabeth, that populism meets the complexities of government, and is

:15:48.:15:51.

that the way of characterising this experiment in populist

:15:52.:15:56.

policy-making? Well, I think that all so what happened is Trump had no

:15:57.:16:00.

experience in government before. He ran a company and it was a family

:16:01.:16:04.

business and that kind of situation with the chief executives, he has

:16:05.:16:13.

discovered, and he said this publicly, is how difficult it is to

:16:14.:16:17.

get things done, because you have to bring along Congress, you have an

:16:18.:16:20.

opposition party and you also have courts that go against you. That was

:16:21.:16:26.

the way our system was set up and he is finding that there are checks and

:16:27.:16:31.

balances in the American government. OK, one of the Sears was that

:16:32.:16:35.

somehow this guy with this rather chaotic way of doing things, very

:16:36.:16:39.

capricious, would undermine institutions, the great institutions

:16:40.:16:43.

of the world or the United States. Do you see any of that going on? --

:16:44.:16:49.

one of the fears. Yes. There are some things he hasn't been able to

:16:50.:16:54.

undermine but we have ethics laws in the United States. This was a very

:16:55.:16:57.

small story but the head of the office of ethics in the US resigned

:16:58.:17:01.

this week because he said it was pointless to try to enforce the

:17:02.:17:04.

rules any more. A lot of these things were norms and rules and

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regulations rather than actual laws, but people conform to them and Trump

:17:10.:17:14.

doesn't and his family doesn't conform to them. But in terms of

:17:15.:17:22.

leadership, was it...? We could almost say it was angular Merkel

:17:23.:17:30.

that leads the West, but... He has made various different kinds of

:17:31.:17:34.

statements about Nato and we have to assume... You know, we can take

:17:35.:17:39.

which ever one we want to believe. But the idea that the US was the

:17:40.:17:43.

leader in trade and was the country that believed in more economic

:17:44.:17:48.

interaction with the world, that doesn't exist any more. The idea

:17:49.:17:53.

that the US was a convener of other nations and could reach mutual

:17:54.:17:58.

agreements, that doesn't work any more. So the idea that the United

:17:59.:18:04.

States was a power in the Pacific, that could fall under question as

:18:05.:18:08.

well. So a lot of the assumptions made about American power have been

:18:09.:18:12.

undermined. It has only been six months and he's been very lucky in a

:18:13.:18:15.

way because there hasn't been a major crisis. Well, North Korea...

:18:16.:18:23.

Well, that hasn't happened yet and nobody has invaded a country,

:18:24.:18:27.

nothing for him to respond to, so we haven't seen how an administration

:18:28.:18:31.

that doesn't have any foreign policy staff will react to a foreign policy

:18:32.:18:37.

crisis yet. Let's go back to the domestic agenda. This issue of

:18:38.:18:40.

undermining institutions and integrity and the things that have

:18:41.:18:44.

built up over hundreds of years in the US - tube eye that there's been

:18:45.:18:50.

some of that going on or not? Sure, but in many ways I am more positive

:18:51.:19:01.

and I feel that this is a lesson in how the government is supposed to

:19:02.:19:05.

work. She's right about the ethics violations but look at what happened

:19:06.:19:08.

to health care. It did not get through Congress. Look at his two

:19:09.:19:14.

travel bans. They were struck down by a court and he had to come back.

:19:15.:19:19.

There was then a new one but the Supreme Court allowed a part of the

:19:20.:19:23.

travel ban but the courts were reacting the way they were supposed

:19:24.:19:28.

to. And then I would argue the press as well. Obviously he's been very

:19:29.:19:31.

tough on the press but I also think this has been a good run for the

:19:32.:19:38.

press because we have healthy administration accountable and we've

:19:39.:19:44.

written a lot of stories and exposed a lot of stories. There have been a

:19:45.:19:48.

lot of investigations and we've been on the Russia story quite a bit, so

:19:49.:19:52.

I think that's working as well. I'm looking at it in a more positive

:19:53.:19:56.

way. A different perspective but an interesting one. Thank you both very

:19:57.:19:58.

much indeed. The Grenfell Tower fire has

:19:59.:20:01.

naturally got everyone looking very hard at building design,

:20:02.:20:03.

not least local authorities worried about the stock of renovated

:20:04.:20:06.

towers on their estates. It's clear we need an audit

:20:07.:20:08.

of what we've got, with what materials bolted

:20:09.:20:10.

on the outside. And this is where it

:20:11.:20:13.

gets interesting working There are three ways to get

:20:14.:20:15.

a building signed off. The key words are "limited

:20:16.:20:19.

combustibility". One, you can clad a building

:20:20.:20:24.

in material that is all of limited combustibility, as that

:20:25.:20:27.

won't burn badly. Two, you can use elements

:20:28.:20:30.

of combustible material, but it has to have been fire-tested

:20:31.:20:34.

to see that in its particular combination, it is of

:20:35.:20:41.

limited combustibility. And three, if the combination hasn't

:20:42.:20:44.

been fire-tested then you have to have a desktop study that shows

:20:45.:20:48.

it is materially the same as stuff So if the material isn't

:20:49.:20:51.

all resistant to fire then it needs to have been tested one

:20:52.:20:58.

way or another. But guess what - councils cannot get

:20:59.:20:59.

the the test results. I'm joined by Lord Porter,

:21:00.:21:02.

Gary Porter, who is the chairman A very good evening to you. I hope

:21:03.:21:11.

I've summarised the position adequately. But, look, you want to

:21:12.:21:17.

know the results of different combinations of materials and how

:21:18.:21:21.

they have got through fire tests. Yes, we've been arguing since just

:21:22.:21:25.

after the day of the fire that the whole thing should be tested and not

:21:26.:21:28.

just the core of the panels, and those tests need to be properly

:21:29.:21:33.

tested, and we are pleased the Government has agreed they will do

:21:34.:21:38.

that, or the experts have, at least. Once those tests have been done,

:21:39.:21:42.

they need to be made public, and more importantly, the result is done

:21:43.:21:46.

by the private sector, which are subject intellectual property

:21:47.:21:49.

rights, also need to be done. But they've done those tests before,

:21:50.:21:54.

haven't they? To be able to say, yes, we can use that combination

:21:55.:21:59.

because we've tested it. They have been done but we are yet to see the

:22:00.:22:02.

results. Those companies are under no obligation to share the results

:22:03.:22:07.

with the wider public. Had you asked them? We have asked them and we've

:22:08.:22:12.

asked members of the public require that the contractual basis means

:22:13.:22:18.

that is shared. So the testing companies or the cladding companies?

:22:19.:22:25.

The BR East says they cannot share the results. They have said they

:22:26.:22:28.

can't share those results because they are subject intellectual

:22:29.:22:34.

property. So quite seriously, you want to know which cladding

:22:35.:22:39.

combinations are safe and stack up in systems, and they simply say, we

:22:40.:22:44.

cannot tell you. Because the tests they've done belong to the companies

:22:45.:22:49.

they've done the tests for. So you ask the company, then? That's what

:22:50.:22:56.

we're doing now. With putting pressure through councils, housing

:22:57.:22:59.

associations... But do they not just send you the results? Will they? I'm

:23:00.:23:05.

happy -- I'm acting on the basis of this new story tonight and I expect

:23:06.:23:10.

companies will be rushing to tell the Government, here, have access to

:23:11.:23:15.

all our data! But you find it slow and a bit lethargic. Try to find

:23:16.:23:24.

somebody who has had access to them. There is a worry that the testing

:23:25.:23:28.

system, rather than as a way of stopping unsafe things, has become a

:23:29.:23:34.

system for, well, let's see if there's a way we can get this to

:23:35.:23:39.

pass. Is that your one? My worry is that the public will never have

:23:40.:23:44.

faith in what is done unless it is done in a transparent way. If we

:23:45.:23:47.

want people to feel safe in a tower block we have to convince them that

:23:48.:23:51.

all the information is out of the public domain, and for me as a

:23:52.:23:55.

council leader and representative of a council, that's what's important.

:23:56.:23:58.

I'm not looking for somebody to blame. I'm looking for somebody to

:23:59.:24:02.

reassure the public that it is safe to be in those buildings. Presumably

:24:03.:24:06.

the Government could instruct the lads, you will tell us what the

:24:07.:24:10.

results are of the tests you have had done. -- the laboratories. But

:24:11.:24:21.

they are not part of the Government. Well, emergency law... You would

:24:22.:24:24.

need to talk to a lawyer! I don't know what would be needed. It is not

:24:25.:24:31.

just the cladding, it is the installation. We argued from the

:24:32.:24:35.

start that the installation is almost certainly going to be a

:24:36.:24:39.

contributory factor in some instances. Not at all, because there

:24:40.:24:42.

are some Willie could types out there, but there are some that like

:24:43.:24:46.

fire. -- there are some very good types. It needs to cover the whole

:24:47.:24:52.

of that system. I used to be a bricklayer and I think all buildings

:24:53.:24:57.

should be clad in bricks and not any other material, but that is just a

:24:58.:25:00.

personal interest! Thank you very much.

:25:01.:25:04.

If you weren't worried about enough things already,

:25:05.:25:06.

here's another one - consumer credit.

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For all the lessons of the financial crash that started ten

:25:09.:25:10.

years ago this summer, the Western world has

:25:11.:25:12.

not really found a way to stimulate spending,

:25:13.:25:14.

activity and growth without letting debt grow.

:25:15.:25:16.

In the 2000s, it was US sub-prime mortgages that

:25:17.:25:18.

kicked off the crisis, but it is unmortaged

:25:19.:25:20.

credit here that is now the immediate concern.

:25:21.:25:22.

They've supported spending and perhaps given a rather

:25:23.:25:27.

flattering impression of our economic performance.

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Unfortunately, consumer credit has been growing much faster

:25:32.:25:33.

than consumer incomes, and that can't go on forever.

:25:34.:25:36.

Our business editor Helen Thomas has been looking at the data.

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# Oh, the credit card blues sure will get you down

:25:45.:25:48.

Loans, leases, leverage - call it what you want,

:25:49.:25:57.

the UK is amassing more of it, and that raises questions

:25:58.:25:59.

The Bank of England is keeping an eye on lending to Britain's

:26:00.:26:07.

What seems to be happening is that lenders are willing to make credit

:26:08.:26:15.

cheaper and expand the supply of it into new areas, and that's why it's

:26:16.:26:19.

an amber warning light for us, because our job is to make sure that

:26:20.:26:25.

lenders are safe and the main risk to the wider economy here actually

:26:26.:26:28.

come through the lenders rather than the borrowers.

:26:29.:26:31.

The regulator has told banks to hold more capital,

:26:32.:26:34.

It will also stress-test potential losses.

:26:35.:26:42.

This is British households' debt relative to their income.

:26:43.:26:49.

It rose before the financial crisis, fell sharply, and now it's

:26:50.:26:52.

That includes mortgages, though, which have been pretty steady.

:26:53.:27:00.

The problem is consumer lending, here in red.

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That rose by about 10% over the last year, much faster

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Credit card debt is growing quickly, here in yellow,

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but the real eye-catcher, this blue line, car finance,

:27:17.:27:20.

has been growing at over 15% a year since 2013.

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The reason for that is a fundamental change in how we are

:27:28.:27:30.

Well, we're not really buying them at all.

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It's boosted business here, a busy showroom owned by Pendragon,

:27:38.:27:39.

A whole generation of people has been brought up with a different

:27:40.:27:47.

mentality, and so if you look at a device like that, you know,

:27:48.:27:59.

my kids would think it very strange that you would go

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What they're looking forward to is the end of the contract

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and when they can refresh it with the latest model.

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Well, why would it be any different in cars?

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Four out of five new cars are now financed with something called

:28:11.:28:13.

That means a monthly payment for two or four years,

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then you upgrade to the latest model or pay a pre-agreed lump

:28:17.:28:19.

Making a decision to buy a car is now a smaller decision

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psychologically because people are committing to make smaller

:28:28.:28:30.

payments for a shorter term, and whereas historically somebody

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would think about spending ?15,000, now they're probably thinking

:28:35.:28:40.

about making payments of ?240, ?250, and then doing the same thing

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again potentially two or three years later but getting a fresh car

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But people actually tend to keep paying their car loans.

:28:49.:29:04.

They need their cars to get to work or to get the kids to school.

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A slump in used-car values could mean losses for lenders.

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But the Central Bank thinks even a 30% drop would only mean

:29:12.:29:14.

But cars aren't all we've been shopping for.

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With longer and longer interest-free periods,

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personal loans have been getting cheaper and cheaper.

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Overall, credit has been more easily available as companies

:29:27.:29:37.

What does this build-up mean for the banking system,

:29:38.:29:42.

the financial stability, and what about the UK economy?

:29:43.:29:49.

Would a slowdown in debt-fuelled spending mean hazards ahead?

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Jim Ballantyne used credit cards to start a business but his debts

:29:52.:29:54.

mounted after a serious accident left him unable to work.

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He's now tackling that with the help of the money advice service.

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I wish I could explain better what I haven't dealt with it sooner.

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When I contacted the debt change charity,

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they went through a budget for me and told me what I already knew,

:30:18.:30:20.

which was that it was unsustainable and there was absolutely no way

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I could pay these debts, and that I should write to these people,

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and gave me a form letter to do so, and yet it's taken me three or four

:30:27.:30:30.

months actually to get around to doing that.

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I think burying your head in the sand is very common.

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More consumers are only paying the minimum balances on their credit

:30:41.:30:44.

cards and the Bank of England last week reported to signs that default

:30:45.:30:49.

If you look back over the last few years, it's very typical for lottery

:30:50.:30:57.

If you look back over the last few years, it's very

:30:58.:31:00.

on consumer debt to be more than ten times those

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on mortgage lending, and that's why banks

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and their exposure to consumer debt generally are a key driver

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of how strong they are, how resilient they are.

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As we've seen so many times in the past, lending standards

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in this market can go from the seemingly fairly

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responsible to pretty reckless fairly quickly,

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and that's why after a period of rapid growth, we're taking action

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to make sure this market evolves in a sustainable and prudent way.

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Is this house of cards already teetering?

:31:34.:31:35.

Losses on consumer credit mount when unemployment rises.

:31:36.:31:39.

It still at multi-decade lows for now.

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But tighter credit is only one pressure on households.

:31:42.:31:43.

Real wages are falling, saving rates are at record lows.

:31:44.:31:46.

Consumer spending, the powerhouse of the economy,

:31:47.:31:47.

They'll keep sending them cards till you get into so much

:31:48.:31:59.

Robert Kelly, better known as R Kelly, is undisputed as one

:32:00.:32:05.

of the most important R singers ever.

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He's sold tens of millions of albums, he's been at the top

:32:08.:32:15.

of the music industry for three decades.

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His most pop-y and familiar track, I Believe I Can Fly,

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# I believe I can touch the sky... #

:32:22.:32:34.

He's written for Michael Jackson, collaborated with Jay-Z,

:32:35.:32:36.

played professional basketball and been a hero to many fans.

:32:37.:32:38.

# I see me running through that open door.

:32:39.:32:45.

But his image has been more than a little tainted by persistent

:32:46.:32:48.

allegations of sexual predation of underage girls.

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The weird story of his annulled marriage in the '90s

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to the singer Aaliyah - she was 14; the lawsuits

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against him by women who say they had underage sex.

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In the 2000s, he was charged with videotaping sexual acts

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And then yesterday, Buzzfeed's Jim DeRogatis alleged

:33:05.:33:10.

that he is keeping six women in a kind of abusive cult,

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He denies he has abused women, or had underage sex.

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Whatever the truth of the allegations, it's perhaps

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remarkable that his career has progressed as

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I'm joined by Jim DeRogatis and freelance journalist

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Jim, let me start with you. Take us through these allegations. One of

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the women today said she is fine and isn't being held against her will,

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nothing to worry about. Yes, her parents say she is brainwashed, that

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is their work, and the victim of a cult, our world, and Buzzfeed's

:34:00.:34:04.

report, which I worked on for nine months, has two sets of parents and

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three women who bravely spoke on the record, two who were involved in

:34:08.:34:12.

sexual relationships with Kelly and one of whom worked as his personal

:34:13.:34:17.

assistant and saw this behaviour for a long time. They say that these

:34:18.:34:21.

women are mentally and physically abused. They are told when they can

:34:22.:34:26.

eat, went to sleep, when two bays, that they must not before entering

:34:27.:34:33.

or leaving any room, and to turn and face the wall if any male friends

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are present and how to sexually pleasure him in encounters that he

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records and their cellphones are taken away, they are separated from

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friends and family and given a new cellphone that is only used to

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communicate with him or with his permission. Extraordinary situation

:34:51.:34:55.

you are describing. Take us through the allegations. There is a lot of

:34:56.:34:59.

history here. Take us through some of the allegations because you have

:35:00.:35:03.

worked on them in the past as well. I broke the story in 2000 of him

:35:04.:35:09.

consistently abusing his position of wealth and fame to pursue illegal

:35:10.:35:17.

sexual Asian ships with -- illegal sexual relationships with underage

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girls. In a video prosecutors alleged showed him having sex with

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and you're in aiding in the mouth of a 14-year-old girl, it came to me at

:35:27.:35:33.

Chicago Sun Times and he was indicted for making child

:35:34.:35:38.

pornography, it took six and a half years to go to trial and he was

:35:39.:35:41.

acquitted by a jury of his peers. I believe this is classic rape

:35:42.:35:46.

culture. The victim, the young girl on the tape, her mother and father

:35:47.:35:52.

never testified. The jury heard from 36 other witnesses, friends,

:35:53.:35:58.

basketball coach, teachers, who testified that it was the girl and

:35:59.:36:03.

that was her age, and she was acquitted. There have been numerous

:36:04.:36:10.

civil law suit filed that said that either Kelly had illegal sexual

:36:11.:36:16.

relations with them when they were underage or he video taped

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encounters without their knowledge. Important to say that he has denied

:36:23.:36:27.

the allegations. He has paid large cash settlements to the women who

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have sued him. You went to his school, Jamie, and you saw the cult

:36:34.:36:37.

of personality that at least gave a kind of power that he had over

:36:38.:36:44.

people. I did. I was a freshman at the academy when I first saw R

:36:45.:36:49.

Kelly. He would come to visit teachers, the music department's

:36:50.:36:55.

various teachers and we would always see him leaving with a girl. And I

:36:56.:37:02.

think it was one of the worst kept secrets. We didn't think much of it.

:37:03.:37:08.

While ready knew that he had a fondness for young girls. I don't

:37:09.:37:14.

want to presume his guilt here but obviously girls have said that they

:37:15.:37:18.

had underage sex with him. What reaction is there when people come

:37:19.:37:23.

forward and say that? Do people blame the girls or the man? There is

:37:24.:37:29.

a tendency to blame the girls. When I read about this in 2013, we were

:37:30.:37:38.

taught that it is usually on the young girl to steer clear of the

:37:39.:37:44.

predator. If she puts herself in the line of danger then it is on her, if

:37:45.:37:52.

horrible consequences befall. It's so ingrained in us that we don't

:37:53.:37:57.

really, we don't really interrogate it. So when the story broke in 2000,

:37:58.:38:04.

you know, a lot of us were reading the Times back then thinking,

:38:05.:38:08.

finally, someone is bringing this to light because no one ever talks

:38:09.:38:12.

about it. Some would say that there is a race elements to this, that

:38:13.:38:16.

society asks fewer questions about the welfare of black girls than

:38:17.:38:20.

white girls. Is there anything in that or is it pure celebrity

:38:21.:38:26.

culture, people think that celebrities are celebrities? There

:38:27.:38:30.

are a lot of things, including the fact that these girls are

:38:31.:38:35.

African-American. I think there is a Georgetown... There is like, it was

:38:36.:38:45.

recently found that black girls are seen as older compared to white

:38:46.:38:49.

girls and are less vulnerable. That, coupled with R Kelly's hometown hero

:38:50.:38:59.

status sort of made it easier for him may be to take advantage of

:39:00.:39:04.

these girls. Jim, can I ask, in some ways, I don't want to presume guilt,

:39:05.:39:08.

I want to be open-minded, but some would say that it is amazing that

:39:09.:39:13.

someone with so much said about him doesn't have a tiny brand. -- a

:39:14.:39:21.

tarnished brand. In the UK there is a lot of concern about these issues

:39:22.:39:25.

right now. And I think there is in the US as well, with someone like

:39:26.:39:31.

Bill Cosby and you have spoken about Jimmy Savile. I'm mystified about

:39:32.:39:38.

this. It is hard to walk far in the music amenities in Chicago on the

:39:39.:39:42.

west and south sides and now in Atlanta and not find young women who

:39:43.:39:45.

have been damaged by their associations with Kelly, allegedly.

:39:46.:39:53.

There is a 25 year Trail of lawsuits, the Aaliyah marriage, the

:39:54.:40:01.

trial for child pawn and the video tape is a horrifying documentary of

:40:02.:40:05.

a rape, I believe, and now these parents want their daughters home.

:40:06.:40:07.

Thank you both very much indeed. We will leave you with the work of

:40:08.:40:21.

National Geographic, capturing a hummingbird drinking in a wind

:40:22.:40:25.

tunnel, the work of Anand Varma. # Oh my hopeless wonder music Mac

:40:26.:40:47.

you can't come in # You can't come in

:40:48.:41:07.

# You don't live here any more # Creepy conjurer...

:41:08.:41:30.

That evening, some southern areas have seen quite a few thunderstorms

:41:31.:41:35.

going through this evening and they will continue tonight and into

:41:36.:41:40.

tomorrow, drifting erratically over northern England, Scotland and some

:41:41.:41:41.

in Northern

:41:42.:41:42.

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