07/09/2017 Newsnight


07/09/2017

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After Antigua and Barbuda, in one hour Hurricane Irma will do

:00:07.:00:09.

Wooden homes versus 180 mph winds and 20-foot waves.

:00:10.:00:17.

Everyone who can has moved to the highest ground,

:00:18.:00:21.

as one of the strongest Atlantic storms in history causes havoc.

:00:22.:00:25.

We'll ask the islands' governor what he can do in the face

:00:26.:00:28.

The Eurocrats are ganging up on David Davis again,

:00:29.:00:32.

suggesting he's not very good at negotiating with them.

:00:33.:00:35.

Meanwhile the Eurosceptics are suggesting it doesn't matter,

:00:36.:00:37.

because Angela Merkel will be the one to cut the deal.

:00:38.:00:43.

It is down to Mutti to then actually leave the process.

:00:44.:00:48.

Now, she'll say, oh, I'm not leading this, and

:00:49.:00:50.

officially she'll be behind the scenes.

:00:51.:00:51.

But we all know that what Germany wants here, Germany will

:00:52.:00:54.

One of Labour's most prominent Remainers and a Tory leaver

:00:55.:01:01.

are here to pick the bones out of that one.

:01:02.:01:05.

Also tonight, is devout religion and political

:01:06.:01:06.

We'll ask the House of Commons chaplin, Rose Hudson Wilkin.

:01:07.:01:14.

And he's one of the most famous photographers in the world.

:01:15.:01:17.

Mario Testino tells us his most embarrassing secret.

:01:18.:01:19.

Useless in the kitchen, useless with cameras.

:01:20.:01:23.

I a very short time, the full force of Hurricane Irma

:01:24.:01:52.

is due to batter across the British Overseas Territory

:01:53.:01:54.

The little group of Caribbean islands' 35,000 residents have

:01:55.:01:57.

already seen the devastation wrought by the Category 5 storm

:01:58.:02:00.

in St Martin, Antigua, the BVI and Barbuda,

:02:01.:02:02.

where it flattened 90% of the territories' buildings.

:02:03.:02:03.

We'll be hearing shortly from some of those who are waiting nervously

:02:04.:02:06.

But first, what - if anything - does the intensity of this year's

:02:07.:02:11.

hurricane season tell us about the occurrence

:02:12.:02:13.

Irma is the strongest Atlantic storm in a decade,

:02:14.:02:18.

and comes hot on the heels of Hurricane Harvey, which wreaked

:02:19.:02:21.

Some have asked whether climate change might be having an impact.

:02:22.:02:25.

Or does extreme weather sometimes just happen?

:02:26.:02:27.

Seen from space, you could almost say Irma looks beautiful.

:02:28.:02:39.

From ground level, though, she has a very different face.

:02:40.:02:41.

The Caribbean island of St Martin, hit by 185mph winds,

:02:42.:02:44.

and Irma is still going, heading perhaps for the US mainland.

:02:45.:02:48.

It is what we sometimes rather helplessly refer

:02:49.:02:51.

to as an act of God - no-one to blame, nothing to be done

:02:52.:02:54.

but pick through the wreckage, mourn the dead and count the cost.

:02:55.:02:59.

But with two major hurricanes one after another, is this

:03:00.:03:01.

perhaps something else, an act of man, or at least

:03:02.:03:04.

The Greek president today was categoric -

:03:05.:03:09.

this WAS climate change, and President Trump must act.

:03:10.:03:16.

"I speak directly to the United States," he said,

:03:17.:03:18.

"because they the victims of climate change for the second

:03:19.:03:20.

But are the scientists as certain as the politicians?

:03:21.:03:29.

From observations alone, we will never be able to say

:03:30.:03:32.

that this is the event which would only have happened

:03:33.:03:34.

in a changing climate, because if you drill down

:03:35.:03:36.

to the individual storm, all extreme events are unique.

:03:37.:03:43.

However, we can say, and we need observations and climate

:03:44.:03:48.

models to do these studies, but we have climate models nowadays

:03:49.:03:52.

that CAN do this kind of job, we can say that the likelihood

:03:53.:03:55.

of certain events occurring has changed due

:03:56.:03:57.

And definitely the very extreme rainfall is one of the things

:03:58.:04:03.

where the likelihood has increased due to climate change.

:04:04.:04:09.

This year in the North Atlantic, there have so far been 11 named

:04:10.:04:12.

storms, of which six have been hurricanes.

:04:13.:04:14.

The average between 1981 and 2010 was six named storms,

:04:15.:04:17.

and 2.6 hurricanes - so we appear to be well up.

:04:18.:04:24.

In terms of wind speed, Irma is the joint second-strongest

:04:25.:04:27.

on record, at 185mph, eclipsed only by Hurricane Alan

:04:28.:04:29.

in 1980, with a maximum wind speed of 190mph.

:04:30.:04:37.

And with two and a quarter days at Category 5 intensity so far,

:04:38.:04:40.

Irma is the fourth longest duration hurricane on record,

:04:41.:04:44.

but still a whole day behind Hurricane Cuba,

:04:45.:04:46.

which in 1932 blew for three and a quarter days.

:04:47.:04:51.

The mechanism by which a warming climate might cause more hurricanes

:04:52.:04:54.

The fuel that drives hurricanes is water vapour,

:04:55.:05:02.

and the water vapour is evaporated off the sea surface and the warmer

:05:03.:05:05.

the sea surface, the more water vapour is evaporated

:05:06.:05:07.

and there's more energy to drive the storms.

:05:08.:05:10.

So, with global warming, the sea is warmer and there's more water

:05:11.:05:13.

being evaporated and there's more of the fuel to drive the big storms.

:05:14.:05:16.

And if we look at this graph produced by the US

:05:17.:05:20.

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric

:05:21.:05:21.

year, it does show a steady uptake of average sea temperatures.

:05:22.:05:30.

However, there are many other factors at play

:05:31.:05:32.

in the formation of a storm, some of which actually become LESS

:05:33.:05:34.

There is a competing effect, which is that if we also see higher

:05:35.:05:40.

temperatures higher up in the atmosphere, that

:05:41.:05:42.

And so we cannot say that we will see more intense

:05:43.:05:51.

hurricanes full-stop in a changing climate.

:05:52.:05:53.

But with the hurricanes that have been analysed so far,

:05:54.:05:58.

there have been a number that have intensified due to higher

:05:59.:06:00.

temperatures, but there is also a number that have weakened due

:06:01.:06:03.

But certainly, what we can definitely say is that

:06:04.:06:09.

the associated rainfall in them, there we see the effects of climate

:06:10.:06:12.

It's true that with 49.32 inches of rain, Hurricane Harvey is the US

:06:13.:06:21.

Tropical Storm Amelia in 1978 dumped 48 inches and Hurricane Easy

:06:22.:06:33.

And Tropical Storm Claudette in 1979 dropped 45 inches of rain.

:06:34.:06:39.

And none of these would presumably be blamed on climate change.

:06:40.:06:44.

So, we can't say a specific storm now is due to climate change,

:06:45.:06:47.

but we can say, if we look over decades, we'll be able

:06:48.:06:50.

to see that the intensity of the storms is going up.

:06:51.:06:54.

What has caused the storm that brought them so much misery

:06:55.:06:56.

is probably not of much interest to the people in the Caribbean,

:06:57.:06:59.

having to rebuild their homes and lives.

:07:00.:07:01.

In the genesis of storms, science can't offer certainty -

:07:02.:07:04.

just probabilities and trends over time.

:07:05.:07:12.

So how are people in the path of Irma preparing for her arrival?

:07:13.:07:20.

John Freeman is the governor of Turcs and Caicos.

:07:21.:07:22.

Before we came on air I spoke to him via Skype.

:07:23.:07:25.

I started by asking him about his concerns following the devastation

:07:26.:07:28.

suffered by the islands nearby. Absolutely, Kirsty, I mean we've

:07:29.:07:32.

seen what's happened to the British Overseas Territories

:07:33.:07:34.

further to the south, But it's also a cause for making

:07:35.:07:36.

the best preparations we can. As I speak, the winds

:07:37.:07:41.

are getting up pretty strongly. The outer tentacles of Irma reaching

:07:42.:07:43.

us, the palm trees are bending over. What preparations have

:07:44.:07:47.

people been making? Well, we've been preparing

:07:48.:07:55.

for some little while now. But the main things

:07:56.:07:58.

is that we wanted to make sure we did not have people on the island

:07:59.:08:01.

who didn't need to be here, so we've been rushing forward

:08:02.:08:04.

with working with the airlines to get particularly

:08:05.:08:07.

tourists off the island. We have our shelters open

:08:08.:08:09.

and operating for people to go into, particularly those from vulnerable

:08:10.:08:20.

areas, some of whom have also been in any case encouraged to move away

:08:21.:08:23.

from areas where there's going to be flooding, because the sea surge

:08:24.:08:26.

is notably high as it approaches us, We've also ordered the evacuation

:08:27.:08:29.

and secured the evacuation, apart from a few people who didn't

:08:30.:08:32.

want to move, of two islands And you're all moving

:08:33.:08:36.

to higher ground? I understand the storm surge

:08:37.:08:38.

could be as much as 20 feet, and as you say,

:08:39.:08:41.

you're very low-lying. The point is, however it comes in,

:08:42.:08:43.

it's going to flood over quite significant areas,

:08:44.:08:50.

and people will move Our shelters obviously have moved

:08:51.:08:52.

up into higher ground. And some people don't

:08:53.:08:58.

always want to move, but we are encouraging

:08:59.:09:00.

them to do so. We've been chasing around this

:09:01.:09:03.

morning trying still to get people in and effectively,

:09:04.:09:05.

we are beginning to close down now on the islands, saying to everyone,

:09:06.:09:08.

get off the streets, don't drive around any more,

:09:09.:09:10.

prepare yourselves So finally, tell me,

:09:11.:09:12.

what is the atmosphere I think people genuinely

:09:13.:09:16.

are very nervous. There is a strong sense

:09:17.:09:21.

of pulling together, but there People here know what

:09:22.:09:25.

hurricanes can do. They have seen what's been happening

:09:26.:09:32.

in the Leeward Islands. So of course people are rightly

:09:33.:09:35.

and understandably frightened. But we have to be

:09:36.:09:39.

frightened but purposeful. Dr Freeman, thank

:09:40.:09:42.

you very much indeed. David Davis, the UK's Brexit

:09:43.:09:44.

negotiator, has been taking As the second reading

:09:45.:09:50.

of the EU Withdrawal Bill began in Westminster,

:09:51.:09:56.

it emerged that Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European

:09:57.:09:58.

Parliament, had questioned both his stability and his

:09:59.:10:00.

accountability at a meeting For good measure, Mr Juncker today

:10:01.:10:02.

added that he believed the Brexit Mr Davis' counterpart,

:10:03.:10:10.

Michel Barnier, also expressed his frustration,

:10:11.:10:13.

warning he thinks the talks over the UK's exit bill

:10:14.:10:15.

are going backwards and branding Britain's proposals on the Irish

:10:16.:10:17.

border as unacceptable. Some believe such language

:10:18.:10:24.

from Europe's top two is more than boisterous positioning,

:10:25.:10:28.

and a sign that Brussels is genuinely losing patience -

:10:29.:10:32.

boding badly, you might think, Here's our political

:10:33.:10:34.

editor Nick Watt. The seasons, they are

:10:35.:10:50.

a-changing, and changing at a faster pace than our

:10:51.:10:52.

politics. As autumn descends on us, the first

:10:53.:10:56.

deadline in the Brexit talks hoves into view at the end of next

:10:57.:10:59.

month, and Brussels is beginning to TRANSLATION: I've been very

:11:00.:11:02.

disappointed by the UK position, as expressed last week,

:11:03.:11:09.

because it seems to be backtracking on the original commitment of the UK

:11:10.:11:20.

to honour its international commitments, including

:11:21.:11:23.

the commitments post-Brexit. His boss is none too

:11:24.:11:25.

happy, either, as these minutes from a meeting

:11:26.:11:27.

in July make clear. Mr Juncker expresses concern

:11:28.:11:33.

about the question of the stability and accountability of the UK

:11:34.:11:36.

negotiator and his apparent lack of involvement, which risks

:11:37.:11:39.

jeopardising the success of the Those barbed remarks were met

:11:40.:11:41.

with short shrift in It sounds to me like a kind

:11:42.:11:48.

of bar-room annoyance, a few drinks and away you go,

:11:49.:11:57.

you get a bit annoyed. Over here at the Brexiter

:11:58.:12:02.

department, they're brushing off the fuselage

:12:03.:12:04.

from Brussels. One senior figure told me that

:12:05.:12:11.

David Davis would only be worried if he were being

:12:12.:12:13.

portrayed as a pussycat. Across the Channel,

:12:14.:12:20.

Michel Barnier is in a different mood -

:12:21.:12:22.

is so frustrated with the Brexit secretary that EU's chief negotiator

:12:23.:12:31.

is prepared to put a question mark over the entire talks

:12:32.:12:36.

by feeling next month that insufficient progress has been made.

:12:37.:12:39.

Some people in Britain believe still we can

:12:40.:12:41.

never set every thing at the

:12:42.:12:42.

same time together and make a conclusion until March 2019.

:12:43.:12:45.

But in the negotiations about a free-trade

:12:46.:12:46.

We literally have to settle if it should be a very good, constructive

:12:47.:12:53.

relationship in the future, it needs much more

:12:54.:12:55.

time, as we know come of another trade negotiations.

:12:56.:12:58.

So what exactly is David Davis's game?

:12:59.:12:59.

I've just tendered my resignation from Parliament to the

:13:00.:13:03.

That will trigger a process which will lead to a by-election.

:13:04.:13:10.

The Brexit Secretary has always been something of a

:13:11.:13:12.

subversive figure who has made a career out of challenging

:13:13.:13:15.

authority, and that's exactly what he's doing now.

:13:16.:13:19.

David Davis believes he is successfully undermining the central

:13:20.:13:22.

tenet of Michel Barnier's negotiating strategy, which is that

:13:23.:13:28.

the UK cannot discuss its future trading relationship with the EU

:13:29.:13:31.

until it has cleared up the terms of its departure.

:13:32.:13:36.

David has managed to drop back into the ring, play

:13:37.:13:40.

them at their own game, which is, "But you keep asking about Ireland

:13:41.:13:43.

and the borders and the trade arrangements - we can't settle any

:13:44.:13:46.

of that until we settle the trade arrangements.

:13:47.:13:50.

"So we can't discuss anything - let's get to the trade

:13:51.:13:53.

arrangements and then we will know what we can

:13:54.:13:55.

do about the border in Northern Ireland."

:13:56.:13:56.

And that final bit in the last week has been the big

:13:57.:13:59.

expose to the nonsense of we can settle this come about all

:14:00.:14:02.

And then there is the question of Germany's role after its

:14:03.:14:11.

David Davis dismisses Michel Barnier's October

:14:12.:14:17.

deadline for an assessment of the talks, on the grounds that just one

:14:18.:14:20.

date matters - the formation of the new German government, probably

:14:21.:14:23.

Once she has got her domestics in order,

:14:24.:14:31.

she re-enters the ring, and it is down

:14:32.:14:33.

She will say, I'm not leading this, but we all know that

:14:34.:14:39.

what Germany wants here, Germany

:14:40.:14:41.

will get, in the European Union context.

:14:42.:14:46.

Angela Merkel I know very well is very much for this strategy

:14:47.:14:53.

and she was one of the people behind this strategy.

:14:54.:14:59.

She will stay Chancellor and will not change her

:15:00.:15:01.

When autumn turns to winter, Britain hopes

:15:02.:15:11.

for a change of heart, but the current message from Berlin

:15:12.:15:13.

never compromise on fundamental rules of the EU.

:15:14.:15:22.

I should, of course, just say that Jean-Claude Juncker is the President

:15:23.:15:36.

of the commission. Nick, the Brexit secretary

:15:37.:15:37.

was in the Commons today for the second reading

:15:38.:15:39.

of the EU Withdrawal Bill, but the Government has been facing

:15:40.:15:42.

another challenge on Brexit That's right. Pressure also from

:15:43.:15:47.

Eurosceptic MPs who began circulating a letter saying that the

:15:48.:15:52.

transition period, immediately after we leave the EU, should not be used

:15:53.:15:59.

to create a soft Brexit. This comes as there is a debate in the cabinet

:16:00.:16:02.

about how to go about that transition. David Davis said in the

:16:03.:16:06.

Commons today that that should be close to EU membership, but the

:16:07.:16:09.

details and the timing of that transition have not been worked out

:16:10.:16:15.

in Cabinet, and there are Cabinet minister allies who fear that the

:16:16.:16:18.

Prime Minister is listening very carefully to those Eurosceptic MPs

:16:19.:16:23.

who want that transition not to look like EU membership but to be as far

:16:24.:16:28.

away from EU membership as possible. But I spoke to a Remain member of

:16:29.:16:32.

the Cabinet who said that the Prime Minister has agreed to their

:16:33.:16:36.

phrasing - there should be no cliff edge Brexit which means when we

:16:37.:16:39.

leave, we barely noticed. We noticed it when we come out of the

:16:40.:16:44.

transition. And this was before they went into the Commons today? Yes,

:16:45.:16:51.

David Davis, whilst he was taking the questions, he said all but. And

:16:52.:16:56.

of course, it's not necessarily just trouble from the right, it is from

:16:57.:17:00.

the left is well? We have a big moment with Keir Starmer Stena

:17:01.:17:04.

Shadow Brexit secretary a few weeks ago, who said that the UK should be

:17:05.:17:09.

within the single market. And then in an interview in the Financial

:17:10.:17:13.

Times today, he talked about how that relationship with a customs

:17:14.:17:16.

union could continue after the transition period. Trustingly,

:17:17.:17:22.

silence from Jeremy Corbyn and a number of Brexit Labour MPs are

:17:23.:17:27.

saying that they will not go along with its. What is interesting is

:17:28.:17:31.

that the Labour position is very similar to the EU view on how a

:17:32.:17:35.

transition should be, which is basically membership minus the

:17:36.:17:41.

votes. And as you saw, I interviewed that Bertrand CDU MEP from Germany,

:17:42.:17:48.

close to Angela Merkel, and he said to me, he describes the Labour

:17:49.:17:51.

approach as a good paper. Interesting to see how that goes

:17:52.:17:59.

down. Indeed. Hilary Benn is a Labour MP, former Shadow Foreign

:18:00.:18:05.

Secretary and chair of the Brexit select committee. He campaigned for

:18:06.:18:08.

Remain. Charlie Elphicke voted Remain but has since come a member

:18:09.:18:15.

of the Tory European Research Group, which is believed to have been

:18:16.:18:22.

behind today's letter. Charlie Elphicke, did you put your name to

:18:23.:18:26.

that letter? It was not for me to decide but I thought the most

:18:27.:18:30.

important thing about it, it was not aimed at the Government public was

:18:31.:18:33.

aimed at the Labour Party, who have shifted their position dramatically

:18:34.:18:37.

since the election. They stood on a manifesto of leaving the single

:18:38.:18:40.

market and the customs union and now they're talking about a transition

:18:41.:18:45.

period. But the European Research Group, behind the latter, suggested

:18:46.:18:49.

you for tonight's programme, and they are in favour of a hard Brexit.

:18:50.:18:55.

It is not to do with Labour, it is to do with your concerns about

:18:56.:18:59.

people like Philip Hammond? I don't accept that at all. Any fermentation

:19:00.:19:05.

period needs to be over by the time of the next general election, and

:19:06.:19:11.

then we can move on as a country. -- any implementation period. That is

:19:12.:19:15.

different from the Labour position, which is a transition without any

:19:16.:19:20.

end date at all. So it would be a defined transition period beyond

:19:21.:19:25.

which there is no customs union? We have a clear instruction from the

:19:26.:19:30.

British people to end uncontrolled immigration from the European Union.

:19:31.:19:33.

That means leaving the single market. We want to be able to strike

:19:34.:19:37.

trade deals around the world, and our membership of the customs union

:19:38.:19:43.

is clearly not compatible with that. Let's just bring Hilary Benn. This

:19:44.:19:47.

letter was directed at you? Well, the Conservative Party is having its

:19:48.:19:51.

own arguments and difficulties. I think the real problem the

:19:52.:19:55.

Government has got, apart from the very strong criticism of the EU

:19:56.:20:03.

Withdrawal Bill which we saw today, is, they are having to bring their

:20:04.:20:07.

Brexiteers along and make them realise a fundamental truth - it

:20:08.:20:12.

will not be possible to negotiate this all singing, all dancing

:20:13.:20:17.

bespoke trade and market access agreement in the 10.5 months that

:20:18.:20:22.

we've got left. Therefore we will HAVE to have transitional

:20:23.:20:24.

arrangements. Nobody is suggesting that there won't be. Well, there's

:20:25.:20:31.

been a long argument within the Conservative Party about whether

:20:32.:20:36.

there should be, and we've wasted so much time over the 15 months since

:20:37.:20:40.

the referendum result getting to the point where what is absolutely

:20:41.:20:45.

obvious, namely, there WILL have to be transitional arrangements, is

:20:46.:20:49.

finally being recognised, but it's a difficult message for some

:20:50.:20:52.

conservatives to swallow. Is it not Labour which is actually undermining

:20:53.:20:59.

Brexit, listening to Keir Starmer? Absolutely not. We say very clearly

:21:00.:21:04.

in our manifesto, we accept the outcome of the referendum, we voted

:21:05.:21:08.

in favour of the Article 50 legislation, Tanya will leave the

:21:09.:21:11.

European Union at the end of March 2019. The question now is not

:21:12.:21:16.

whether we are leaving, the question is, what kind of relationship we're

:21:17.:21:19.

going to have with the European Union after we've left? Tonight the

:21:20.:21:25.

boss of Jaguar Land Rover said that any prospect of leaving without a

:21:26.:21:28.

transition would be a disaster. And that is the view expressed in many,

:21:29.:21:33.

many people in business. And during that time, if we can see minimal

:21:34.:21:39.

change after March 2019, it is going to mean staying in the customs union

:21:40.:21:43.

and the single market until the final deal is negotiated. Keir

:21:44.:21:48.

Starmer is saying, remain in a customs union within the single

:21:49.:21:51.

market without that is what he said in his article for the transition.

:21:52.:21:55.

Out of the question? What you're hearing is the sound of Labour

:21:56.:21:59.

figures who want to remain in the European Union by stealth - this is

:22:00.:22:03.

hotel California, you can check out but you can never leave. We are

:22:04.:22:08.

saying we should get on and have a clear sense of direction that we're

:22:09.:22:11.

going to leave the European Union by the time of the next general

:22:12.:22:16.

election. So, what we had over the last 48 hours is, we've had sight of

:22:17.:22:22.

one of the plans the Government has for immigration, and the thing about

:22:23.:22:25.

that is, Hilary Benn, there's been a deafening silence from Labour on

:22:26.:22:31.

those plans, which, of course, the Government says is just one of a

:22:32.:22:34.

number of solutions, and people in the hospitality industry are up in

:22:35.:22:40.

arms - Labour has not been up in arms, Labour has not been vocal? I

:22:41.:22:45.

accept that one of the messages from the referendum result was that

:22:46.:22:47.

people were concerned about free movement, and when we leave the

:22:48.:22:51.

European Union, free movement will come to an end and we will have to

:22:52.:22:54.

agree what our immigration policy is going to... Hang on... The point

:22:55.:23:05.

which Yvette Cooper made was this - if the Government wants to have a

:23:06.:23:08.

conversation about what future immigration policy is going to be

:23:09.:23:14.

like a, don't have leaked drafts of papers appearing, start the debate

:23:15.:23:17.

about how we're going to get the people that we need to keep the

:23:18.:23:23.

British economy strong. And that's why we need to have a reasonable

:23:24.:23:30.

transition. The very basic point is, you have to have something to

:23:31.:23:34.

implement in order to have an in ferment patient period. At the

:23:35.:23:37.

moment you're not going to conclude the negotiations in the time. Jeremy

:23:38.:23:46.

Corbyn has said absolutely nothing, he's being completely absent from

:23:47.:23:51.

this conversation. It's a case, isn't it, that his hero, your

:23:52.:23:59.

father, who abhorred Europe as a capitalist plot, is exactly what

:24:00.:24:06.

Jeremy Corbyn thinks - you don't disagree with that? Well, the

:24:07.:24:11.

referendum results show that the nation is split down the middle. The

:24:12.:24:17.

challenge for us is, we are leaving. Isn't challenge for Jeremy Corbyn to

:24:18.:24:21.

step up to the plate? We have to decide what kind of future

:24:22.:24:23.

immigration policy we are going to have and what it is possible to

:24:24.:24:27.

negotiate with the European Union so that we don't end up damaging our

:24:28.:24:31.

economic prospects, because a lot rests on this. As your report

:24:32.:24:36.

demonstrated, we are six months into the negotiation, there hasn't been

:24:37.:24:40.

agreement reached. But if there hasn't been agreement reached, you

:24:41.:24:46.

with the the Labour leader, he has been absolutely nowhere in this

:24:47.:24:48.

conversation, because his heart is not in it. No, because Keir Starmer

:24:49.:24:55.

set out on behalf of the shadow cabinet, including Jeremy Corbyn,

:24:56.:25:01.

what our policy is and what transitional arrangements should

:25:02.:25:04.

look like. And that is where the Government is going to have to end

:25:05.:25:07.

up, whether Brexiteers like it or not.

:25:08.:25:15.

"A thoroughly modern bigot" - that was just one epithet used today

:25:16.:25:18.

to describe Tory backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg after he told

:25:19.:25:20.

Good Morning Britain yesterday that he was opposed to abortion

:25:21.:25:22.

in all circumstances, including rape and incest.

:25:23.:25:24.

The MP, who was this week named by activists as the favourite

:25:25.:25:27.

to take over from Theresa May in a straw poll by Conservative

:25:28.:25:30.

Home, said life begins at the point of conception.

:25:31.:25:32.

He also says that, as a Catholic, he disagrees

:25:33.:25:34.

Life is sacrosanct and begins at the point of conception.

:25:35.:25:38.

Say you were Prime Minister, and a woman is raped

:25:39.:25:44.

by a family member, right, you would say she had absolutely no

:25:45.:25:49.

No, she would have a right under UK law.

:25:50.:25:59.

But you wouldn't agree with that right?

:26:00.:26:00.

No, but what's your personal opinion?

:26:01.:26:04.

My personal opinion is that life begins at the point

:26:05.:26:06.

of conception, and abortion is morally indefensible.

:26:07.:26:08.

Well, I wouldn't, because that wouldn't be the law of the land.

:26:09.:26:12.

So, if someone's deeply-held religious views conflict

:26:13.:26:15.

with secular values, should that be a barrier

:26:16.:26:17.

And might that depend on the importance of religion

:26:18.:26:20.

This week, in a survey for the National Centre

:26:21.:26:28.

for Social Research, for almost the first time, more

:26:29.:26:30.

53% - describe themselves as having no religion.

:26:31.:26:34.

I'm joined by the DUP MP Iain Paisley Junior,

:26:35.:26:36.

Rose Hudson-Wilkin, who is Chaplain to the Speaker of the House

:26:37.:26:38.

of Commons, and by the Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee.

:26:39.:26:42.

First of all, Rose Hudson-Wilkin, do you think that Jacob Rees-Mogg, as a

:26:43.:26:56.

religious man, was in than to say what he said he should not be barred

:26:57.:26:59.

from high office? We live in a liberal democracy. Freedom of

:27:00.:27:04.

speech, freedom of conscience, and so it is important for anyone in any

:27:05.:27:07.

particular role to be able to express that this is what they feel

:27:08.:27:11.

or this is what they believe. I do not believe that it should bar them

:27:12.:27:18.

from leadership of any kind. But what about if the consensus goes the

:27:19.:27:22.

other way, does that make a difference? What do you mean. If the

:27:23.:27:31.

consensus, for example, is views about incest and rape, that

:27:32.:27:36.

particular position, is a view which is not necessarily held by the

:27:37.:27:40.

majority of the population - does that matter? Well, the population

:27:41.:27:43.

will soon do something about that. They will say, I'm sorry, we don't

:27:44.:27:49.

want to have this person, but I'm talking specifically about religious

:27:50.:27:53.

views, which should not be apart from leadership, any kind of

:27:54.:28:00.

leadership. It is a form of discrimination, isn't it, to say

:28:01.:28:04.

that somebody who holds deep religious views is not suitable to

:28:05.:28:12.

hold high office? Yes, he wouldn't make windows into men's souls, what

:28:13.:28:16.

people believe is their own business - what matters is there policies and

:28:17.:28:21.

their politics. And often those two get in the way. If you wanted to

:28:22.:28:25.

advocate restoring the kind of abortion restrictions that he wants,

:28:26.:28:31.

you probably would not get elected. There is nothing to stop him

:28:32.:28:34.

standing for office. The Conservative Party might well be mad

:28:35.:28:37.

enough to select him. He has made it clear of course that that would not

:28:38.:28:41.

be a platform on which he would stand, he's made that clear. It's a

:28:42.:28:45.

personal, deeply held view. In this day and age, is that acceptable or

:28:46.:28:49.

not? We live in a democracy, presumably all views, whatever their

:28:50.:28:54.

stripe or religion, should be acceptable as long as they are not

:28:55.:28:58.

hate speak or violence or whatever? I think gay people might take it is

:28:59.:29:03.

hate speak to say that they should not be allowed to get married and do

:29:04.:29:07.

various things. But I agree with Rose, it's up to the electric to

:29:08.:29:11.

decide who they would want to vote for. I think he wouldn't have a hope

:29:12.:29:16.

in hell, I hope not, partly because those views are part of a much wider

:29:17.:29:20.

package of where he stands. He is on the very, very far right. People

:29:21.:29:24.

think he's a rather charming, facetious man who is full of jokes

:29:25.:29:29.

and... But in fact he's very far right, he's a climate change denier,

:29:30.:29:33.

he has written an article in the Telegraph the other day...

:29:34.:29:40.

We know what happened to Tim Farron after the election. He said he felt

:29:41.:29:47.

that to be a committed Christian and leader of the party was impossible.

:29:48.:29:51.

I'm sorry he came to that conclusion, and I'm sorry about the

:29:52.:29:57.

pressure that was placed upon him, but the reality is that one's face

:29:58.:30:03.

is not a coat that we occasionally put on depending on what the weather

:30:04.:30:09.

is like. It is who you are. So to ask someone to leave their faith at

:30:10.:30:14.

the door, it is just not right. And we need to guard against a level of

:30:15.:30:18.

intolerance that we are beginning to see in this country in relation to

:30:19.:30:24.

people's face. That is interesting, isn't it? About Tim Farron, it is he

:30:25.:30:39.

was the leader of the party, and he was very out of kilter with the

:30:40.:30:42.

sentiment of his own party and the people he was trying to appeal to

:30:43.:30:49.

buy being anti-gay. I think if you are in the Conservative Party, a lot

:30:50.:30:53.

of Conservative Party members who are elder and more socially

:30:54.:30:57.

conservative might well support you... He doesn't believe in gay

:30:58.:31:01.

marriage. That is different from being anti-gay. I think a lot of gay

:31:02.:31:05.

people would say there is no difference, there is a route

:31:06.:31:08.

prejudice expressing itself in one particular way. Is there something

:31:09.:31:14.

about Christianity that we feel we can take a pop at people with deep

:31:15.:31:17.

religious faith? That at the moment is what we are seeing in this

:31:18.:31:21.

country. I'm not saying you are doing that. But we are seeing a

:31:22.:31:26.

level of intolerance that says Christianity, let's kick them into

:31:27.:31:29.

touch, or kick them out of the public space, and actually, I

:31:30.:31:35.

applied for this role as chaplain to the Speaker of the House of Commons

:31:36.:31:39.

because I actually believe that faith ought to be in the public

:31:40.:31:44.

square. It is who we are. And if you look at our history and where we are

:31:45.:31:48.

coming from in this country, the Christian faith contributed lots of

:31:49.:31:55.

positives. And I think for us to throw it away because there are some

:31:56.:32:02.

raving secularists, I think we are barking up the wrong tree. And you

:32:03.:32:09.

have to be a raving secularist to say that there are bishops sitting

:32:10.:32:16.

in the House of Lords... I have to stop you there. We were expecting to

:32:17.:32:21.

have been joined by the DUP MP Ian Paisley Junior, but while we have

:32:22.:32:24.

been on air, he has pulled out following a story about him on the

:32:25.:32:28.

front of tomorrow's Daily Telegraph which alleges that he accepted

:32:29.:32:33.

holidays worth ?100,000 from a country years now attempting to

:32:34.:32:38.

secure a post Brexit trade deal with.

:32:39.:32:40.

He's everybody's favourite Peruvian, if you don't

:32:41.:32:41.

Mario Testino is the fashion photographer who's as well known

:32:42.:32:45.

He's commanded the covers of the glossies as surely

:32:46.:32:48.

as the women he's immortalised - fashion royalty including Kate Moss,

:32:49.:32:51.

and real royalty, most notably the late Diana,

:32:52.:32:53.

But Testino's new passion is a museum he's created in Lima

:32:54.:32:58.

to showcase artistic talent from his homeland.

:32:59.:32:59.

To help pay for it, he's selling his private art collection,

:33:00.:33:02.

including works by Cindy Sherman and Wolfgang Tilmans,

:33:03.:33:04.

He's been giving our culture editor Stephen Smith

:33:05.:33:09.

an exclusive tour of his favourite things.

:33:10.:33:21.

A view of the maestro photographer as you've never seen him before.

:33:22.:33:26.

And I lived with this above my bed for a long time.

:33:27.:33:31.

Of course, I am a decorator at heart, hence the

:33:32.:33:36.

But the interesting thing of these photographs is that this

:33:37.:33:41.

material comes from Morocco, this comes from Los Angeles,

:33:42.:33:43.

this comes from Naples, this comes from Berlin,

:33:44.:33:45.

And this comes from Croydon, of course.

:33:46.:33:57.

I mean, we mustn't forget that Kate belongs to a new time

:33:58.:34:03.

of this country as well, because I remember back

:34:04.:34:05.

when I arrived, people didn't mix that much.

:34:06.:34:07.

And Kate belongs to the generation of the New England.

:34:08.:34:16.

Mario Testino is parting with the artworks he's collected.

:34:17.:34:19.

They're going under the hammer at Sotheby's to raise money

:34:20.:34:22.

for his own museum back home in Lima, which promotes

:34:23.:34:24.

But in a funny way, I'm enjoying much more the museum and what I can

:34:25.:34:35.

do to help my community and participate, because I'm getting

:34:36.:34:37.

older, and staying with the youth is important, it's exciting.

:34:38.:34:40.

And through the museum, we can expose younger

:34:41.:34:42.

And I want to expand, and I want to expand

:34:43.:34:51.

the education programme, I want to expand the

:34:52.:34:53.

I almost want to expand it to the world.

:34:54.:35:00.

Mario Testino is in demand at least as much as the supermodels

:35:01.:35:03.

She looks as though she has a square meal now and again.

:35:04.:35:11.

But what does Testino say about super skinny

:35:12.:35:13.

We would have to change the age of the girls,

:35:14.:35:19.

which I think that our business has become much more

:35:20.:35:22.

I photograph women, girls last so long, you know?

:35:23.:35:28.

Kate Moss, I'm still photographing her, I'm

:35:29.:35:30.

The diet, the exercise, the way we are doing it has changed.

:35:31.:35:34.

But then designers also would have to probably change a little bit how

:35:35.:35:37.

they make their clothes, because often, you can't put them

:35:38.:35:40.

It's like they don't fit if you're not of a certain size.

:35:41.:35:49.

Having learned his trade and made his name in Britain,

:35:50.:35:51.

Testino says he's been astonished to photograph its royal family.

:35:52.:35:54.

Perhaps nobody made Harry's mother look more relaxed,

:35:55.:35:58.

vivacious, then Testino, whose images of Diana

:35:59.:35:59.

And I think that the love came back with those photographs,

:36:00.:36:14.

because then the British people knew me, and they are, you know,

:36:15.:36:17.

And the good thing is that they can never take them away.

:36:18.:36:26.

I mean, I almost want to cry when I talk about it,

:36:27.:36:29.

because it's emotional, you know, and I don't like to talk

:36:30.:36:32.

about these things because I think I am a photographer.

:36:33.:36:35.

I get asked to come and do an assignment.

:36:36.:36:42.

You know, she has her children, her children have to decide everything.

:36:43.:36:47.

I like to be respectful, but of course it's an amazing person

:36:48.:36:50.

that I've been given to have been the one to have documented and made

:36:51.:36:53.

it like the way that people remember her.

:36:54.:37:00.

If you fancy yourself a budding Testino, but you can't use

:37:01.:37:02.

He can't use a camera either, it turns out.

:37:03.:37:08.

Useless in the kitchen, useless with cameras.

:37:09.:37:12.

Even with the autofocus camera, my assistants sometimes have to take

:37:13.:37:25.

the thing so that it doesn't move around from out of focus.

:37:26.:37:29.

I mean, I'm like, I'm just incapable.

:37:30.:37:31.

But I know when something looks good or not, and how

:37:32.:37:34.

Have you tried to do quite outrageous things with your shoots

:37:35.:37:49.

and have the client say, no, it's too much?

:37:50.:37:51.

They're all naked, they're all on fire.

:37:52.:37:55.

We're selling clothes, it's something I've heard a lot.

:37:56.:37:59.

I'm often taking people's clothes off.

:38:00.:38:03.

Not everybody's made well, you know, and when they are,

:38:04.:38:09.

Well, we are, luckily, but not everyone is.

:38:10.:38:12.

Mario Testino. Just before we go, tomorrow morning's front pages. The

:38:13.:38:34.

Telegraph, the story about Ian Paisley Junior, the MP, the 100,000

:38:35.:38:40.

gift and the Brexit radio, that is Sri Lanka, Prattley, that is the

:38:41.:38:45.

allegation. The Financial Times, may's Brexit strategy hit by

:38:46.:38:52.

Juncker. And a picture of Prince George looking nervous before his

:38:53.:38:55.

first day at school in the Times, Minister in firing line over MPs'

:38:56.:39:03.

Brexit letter. And in the Daily Mail, as Huw insults the British

:39:04.:39:05.

people yet again, don't treat us with contempt.

:39:06.:39:08.

We leave you with good news for fans of Jurgen Otto,

:39:09.:39:11.

Mr Otto's mission in life is to capture the mating dance

:39:12.:39:15.

of obscure species of Australian peacock spider on film

:39:16.:39:17.

Of course it's not quite as good as his masterpiece,

:39:18.:39:24.

which we leave you with - the legendary Maratus Speciosus.

:39:25.:39:26.

Hello. Low pressure is firmly in charge of our weather for Friday,

:39:27.:40:22.

meaning a windy day for the UK competitor Thursday, and plenty of

:40:23.:40:26.

showers around for parts of southern England, Wales and into East Anglia.

:40:27.:40:29.

Spells of rain,

:40:30.:40:30.

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