26/10/2017 Newsnight


26/10/2017

Catalonia on the brink. Is Saudi Arabia reforming? Companies prepare for no Brexit deal. Are universities a Remainer bastion?


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Transcript


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The scene this evening outside the

Catalonian parliament in Barcelona.

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Supporters of independence brace

themselves for battle.

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Without quite knowing

when, where or what form

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the battle will take.

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TRANSLATION:

At this moment, Mr

Puigdemont, you are putting a

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generation in jeopardy. Tomorrow

rests on your shoulders.

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Tomorrow come two crunch votes,

the Spanish will decide

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whether to take control of

Catalonia, Catalonia will decide

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whether to declare itself

independent.

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The country stands

on the brink of a showdown.

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We'll ask if there's a way back

from constitutional conflict.

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Something's up in Saudi Arabia.

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Is it really possible

that we'll be holidaying there,

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on the Red Sea coast

by the end of the next decade?

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The Saudi crown prince has outlined

big plans to beat back the forces

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of conservatism and to take the

kingdom into a new era of normality.

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We'll ask if the Saudi prince's plan

is ever likely to succeed.

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And are our universities

a bastion of left wing remoaners,

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and if so, does it matter?

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The Daily Mail's

Stephen Glover takes it up

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with a professor of philosophy.

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Hello. After a day of some confusion

in Catalonia, Spain this evening

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stands on the brink of a serious

clash between region and nation.

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After some dithering,

the Catalan president

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Carles Puigdemont decided

not to call an election.

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Instead, he said the Catalan

parliament will decide

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on whether independence

should be declared.

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The vote is expected

to happen tomorrow.

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Meanwhile in Madrid,

the Spanish senate will also vote

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on whether to invoke Article 155,

allowing the national government

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to take control of Catalonia.

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A test of strength may follow,

who will the Police

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in Catalonia obey?

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Can a government run

a region against its will?

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And will the pro-independence

politicians in Catalonia remain

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united in their determination?

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Well, it's a volatile situation,

and our diplomatic editor Mark Urban

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is outside the parliament.

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Is that a City in turmoil this

evening?

It's not, and in fact, the

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demonstrations we saw earlier in the

day from militant separatists not

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really more than a few thousand,

even those have dissipated now and

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the streets are largely quiet. But

everyone you talk to hear is full of

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a sense of anticipation about

tomorrow. Now, if there are people

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that don't believe in quitting

Spain, its anticipation tinged with

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trepidation. The separatists, it is

tinged with possibility. People in

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the centre ground of politics here,

a parallel with Brexit, they believe

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if the parliament vote tomorrow is

one of separation, somehow things

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will be sorted out, and life will

not change in a major way. But

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still, all sorts of tensions on the

two flanks of this question.

Can

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either side back down now, that is

the crucial question this evening?

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You are right. It is absolutely a

crucial question, given that both of

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committed to certain courses of

action tomorrow. It seems the

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Spanish Prime Minister has talked

about using the nuclear option,

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so-called article 155 of the

Constitution. Some people are

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saying, there is a certain amount of

wriggle room. But he seemed to be

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committed to going forward on that

route, regardless of what is said or

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decided in Catalonia. For their

part, the Catalans are also

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committed to this vote on

independence, and most people think,

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even though there are splits within

the President's party, they will

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boat to go that way. How can it be

resolved? It is really, really

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unclear whether it can be, hence the

strong sense of people almost

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trembling with the possibilities of

what tomorrow will bring. Hence

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also, a meandering around

politically dumb by the President

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throughout the day in Parliament.

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Nothing happened quite as expected

today in the Catalan parliament.

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Elections were going to be called,

then they want, and as one timed

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event or another slipped and

vanished, the press pack were

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suitably laid-back. Instead, he

promised a parliamentary vote on

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independence, separatist deputies

were jubilant.

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TRANSLATION:

I was prepared to call

these elections on the sole

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condition that we were given

guarantees that they would be held

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in an absolutely normal manner. But

there are no such guarantees that

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would justify calling these regional

elections today.

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Pro independence deputies who

thought he'd lost his nerve were

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jubilant. The president has said he

won't call elections, and he'll give

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the whole matter to Parliament to

decide. And these people are happy,

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because they favour independence,

and they think parliament will, too.

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But if he leaves it to a

parliamentary vote, having a slim

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majority of assent within his own

party, will there be majority for

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independence?

TRANSLATION:

It's come to the moment

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of truth, and we feel the nerves

appropriate to such a man. We think

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tomorrow, in the parliament, the

favour for independence will end up

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declaring independence.

As this played out, the government

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in Madrid mulls the position of

emergency rule on Catalonia,

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something that could also happen to

one. Each side apparently determined

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the other should make the bigger

error.

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TRANSLATION:

In order to come back

within the law, where you are, where

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we are, where the government is, and

since Saturday, nothing relevant has

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happened. But we have heard nothing

but noise.

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Tonight, the parliament is debating

a motion for independence with

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predictions, if anything is still

predictable here, that it will come

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tomorrow morning at 10:30.

Outside, separatists scenting

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victory in joy a carnival

atmosphere.

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I think the real battles darts from

the declaration of Independence. And

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for that, we need the support of our

president. Which we are not sure we

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have.

What is the Catalonian government

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doing quiz on what is the Spanish

are doing? It has been tense. The

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people here are ready to speak for

what they passionately believe in,

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which I think its independence.

Mark Urban reporting from Barcelona.

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I'm joined from Barcelona

by the pro-independence

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activist Anna Arque Solsona,

and via Skype from Madrid

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by Alfredo Pastor, he's the former

Spanish Economic Minister.

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Good evening to you, Alfredo Pastor.

What is the best way out of this

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situation as we stand here now?

Easiest one seems to be for the

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president of of the Catalan

government to call an election. That

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is the easiest one.

Right. Now talk

me through what happens if he

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doesn't do that. Talk me through

what happens if they do vote through

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this declaration of Independence.

The motion can be carried, it may be

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carried or it may not. A majority is

a very weak one. It would be for

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five independence for it to be

declared. No one is going to

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recognise. Then, of course, article

155 would be set in motion.

Right.

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Does Carles Puigdemont, does he get

arrested and sent to jail?

I have no

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idea, but I wouldn't be surprised.

You wouldn't be surprised if he was

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sent to jail?

I wouldn't be

surprised, no. Justice is when slow

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in Spain, but sooner or later, the

clearing independence like that is

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not something... It is not allowed.

Do you think the Spanish government

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can keep hold of it as the federal

government can hold Catalonia by

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force? Do you think that is a very

good idea? If Catalonia doesn't want

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to be part of Spain, you can hold it

there, and you can force the police,

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sent in the Army, keep it and occupy

it?

Catalonia does not have one

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single voice. There is a large

number in Catalonia who would prefer

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not to be in Spain. I'm not sure

that all of them have weighed up the

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costs and benefits of that

carefully. But the fact that many of

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them, many more than the Spanish

government thought, are in favour of

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independence. But they are by no

means a majority. Even the

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government tried to hold even this

large group of people by force, that

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cannot continue indefinitely.

Let me

go over to Anna Arque Solsona. You

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are in favour of independence, what

is the right thing now, to hold an

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election in Catalonia? This is what

the president of Catalonia pulled

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away from today. With the right

thing to delay the election and

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withhold the crisis that is

impending tomorrow?

Well, I think

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that tomorrow is a perfect day to

lift up the suspension of the

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declaration of Independence. That is

the mandate of the people, that was

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the result of the referendum, to

which 43% of the population voted,

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even though the violence that we

suffered that day from the Spanish

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police against unarmed people, even

though we do have a mandate, and

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that is in favour.

Sorry to

interrupt, but if you are so

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confident of this strong

independence, then great, have an

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election. You will obviously have

the independent forces win with a

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thumping majority, and you can go

ahead because you have more

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legitimacy than that referendum.

Well, but there's really no point

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for an election. We had elections,

that's why we have an absolute

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majority of members of the

parliament in favour of the

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independence, and that's why we've

been able to pass through two laws.

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One of them, the referendum, the law

for the referendum, for soft

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determination. We have achieved that

because we already had elections,

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and we have already won the absolute

majority. That's why we did the

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referendum. And now, people have

spoken, the same way as Brexit

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referendum people spoke.

OK...

That

is democracy, that is what it is all

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about.

When Carles Puigdemont is

sent to jail on Monday because the

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Spanish novelties don't agree with

your assessment, when that happens,

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who runs Catalonia, and what is

going to have an? What do you

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actually expect to happen on Monday

if you declare independence and

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banish pass article 155? -- the

Spanish pass Article 100 55.

It is

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important to remember, in Spain at

the moment, there are two people in

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Spain just to organise a peaceful

demonstration. They do have two get

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to arrest President Puigdemont, and

maybe it is not that easy, because

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he is the person of this country,

elected democratically and legally.

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Who is good to run in case the

Spanish state goes once again way

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beyond the democratic framework that

we have given, all of us, in the

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European Union? Nothing, another

person will be in charge of...

Will

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there be violence?

Article 155 is

not going to be able to be

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reapplied...

Is...

You need the

people to obey.

We have little

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time... Sorry to interrupt. We have

little time, do you think there will

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be violence if Spain tries to take

control of Catalonia, or partial

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control Catalonia?

Not from the

Catalan side. All the violence that

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we have experienced has been from

the Spanish state.

Thank you...

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Sorry, I had to cut you off. I want

to put that point to Alfredo Pastor,

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do you think there will be violence?

If the Spanish state, if it sees it

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can't control Catalonia peacefully,

will it use tanks on Monday?

No,

0:14:110:14:16

there will be no tanks. There will

first be demonstration by peaceful

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people, who will probably start

breaking things after a while, then

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the police will have to come and

things are about. That kind of

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street violence will happen, but

there will be no tanks. It will be

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an pleasant, the problem in the long

run, the wounds will take time to

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heal.

We need to leave it there. We

don't have any more time. But we

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will be watching obviously

everything that happens over the

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next few days. Thank you, both, very

much indeed.

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A boring old conference

for investors held in the Saudi

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capital Riyadh would not normally

move the news dial here.

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But a bland-sounding

gathering this week,

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the Future Investment Initiative,

has really put on show,

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a Saudi ambition for a momentous

change of direction.

0:15:040:15:07

A transformation of the world's

strangest, and least liberal

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countries and one of our most

problematic allies could be

0:15:090:15:12

transformative of the region.

0:15:120:15:17

A tie-up with Richard Branson

announced this week,

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and his company called Virgin,

is but one sign of the culture

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change apparently underway.

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The Crown Prince, Mohammed bin

Salman, heir to the throne,

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looks like one of those Gorbachev

types that come along

0:15:280:15:30

from time to time.

0:15:300:15:33

An insider who thinks the regime

in which he operates

0:15:330:15:35

is dysfunctional, and needs to be

reformed.

0:15:350:15:45

One concrete ambition

is an investment of half

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of $1 trillion in a new futuristic

city on the red Sea

0:15:530:15:56

coast called NEOM.

0:15:560:15:57

A place where pioneers and thinkers

and doers can exchange ideas

0:15:570:16:00

and get things done.

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The promotional video shows just how

different they intend it to be

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from the stultifying,

repressed images we

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normally see from Saudi.

0:16:050:16:10

TRANSLATION:

Stunning nature,

mountains, plains, valleys, coast,

0:16:100:16:15

coral reefs, islands,

mountains that are covered

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with snow in winter,

mild weather in summer,

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10 degrees less than the other gulf

cities and capitals.

0:16:200:16:29

The political will is strong.

0:16:290:16:33

The popular will and

desire is strong.

0:16:330:16:34

All the elements of success exist

to create something great

0:16:340:16:37

within the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

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That's the Crown Prince bin Salman.

0:16:380:16:40

He's only 32.

0:16:400:16:41

And the recently appointed heir

to the Saudi throne,

0:16:410:16:43

replacing his cousin in the role.

0:16:430:16:45

He's already impressed

President Trump.

0:16:450:16:49

With energy that flows

from the sun and wind.

0:16:490:16:53

One objective is economic,

preparing the country

0:16:530:16:55

for when the world weans

itself off oil.

0:16:550:16:58

It also needs jobs to occupy

its youthful population.

0:16:580:17:02

More than two thirds

of the population is under 30.

0:17:020:17:07

But another objective is cultural,

the country has become a beacon

0:17:070:17:10

of ultraconservative Sunni thinking.

0:17:100:17:14

The Crown Prince made an astonishing

admission to the Guardian this week.

0:17:140:17:18

What happened in the region

in the last 30 years

0:17:180:17:21

is not the Middle East,

after the Iranian Revolution in 1979

0:17:210:17:25

people wanted to copy this model

in different countries.

0:17:250:17:31

One of them is Saudi Arabia.

0:17:310:17:32

We didn't know how to deal

with it and the problems

0:17:320:17:35

spread all over the world.

0:17:350:17:36

Now is the time to get rid of it.

0:17:360:17:38

Change has already been evident.

0:17:380:17:41

Women being given licence to drive.

0:17:410:17:47

An obvious step to us,

but a huge change in Saudi Arabia.

0:17:470:17:51

The vicious war in Yemen might be

seen as just one sign

0:17:510:17:54

that the country is not close

to a humane presence in the region.

0:17:540:18:00

And then, of course,

there is the problem

0:18:000:18:02

of resistance within.

0:18:020:18:03

Will a Crown Prince beat the forces

whose status and power has

0:18:030:18:06

derived from the old order?

0:18:060:18:11

Saudi Arabia as a new Dubai?

0:18:110:18:13

Well, Dubai has its issues, but

nothing compared to those of Saudi.

0:18:130:18:16

So is reform for real?

0:18:160:18:17

I'm joined by the Saudi

journalist Abeer Mishkhas,

0:18:170:18:19

who returned just this week

from Riyadh, and by Nesrine Malik

0:18:190:18:22

another journalist who herself used

to live in Saudi Arabia.

0:18:220:18:24

But let's start with the BBC's

Frank Gardner who knows

0:18:240:18:27

the country extremely well.

0:18:270:18:29

Let's start

0:18:290:18:30

Frank, tell us about this Crown

Prince.

It's impossible to overstate

0:18:360:18:42

the changes this man is making. By

Saudi standards it is moving at a

0:18:420:18:48

lightning pace. These are changes

nobody could imagine possible

0:18:480:18:53

happening so quickly. The man who

runs the economy, the defence, the

0:18:530:18:56

Royal Court, just about everything,

has turned around and told the

0:18:560:19:01

people of Saudi we have been getting

it wrong, it is time to stop

0:19:010:19:04

extremism.

And he has the support of

the King, presumably, because he was

0:19:040:19:08

promoted by him a few months back.

He does. I met them both in 2013 in

0:19:080:19:15

the king 's palace. I didn't even

know who he was. I said what you do

0:19:150:19:20

for a living, he said he was a

lawyer. At the time he was

0:19:200:19:24

relatively obscure. But he has risen

to prominence. He has made some

0:19:240:19:29

mistakes. He started this

catastrophic war with the Yemen.

0:19:290:19:33

Nobody is winning it. The Yemenis

are losing it by the thousands. Is

0:19:330:19:36

also involved in a spat with Qatar.

But this is a bold step that many

0:19:360:19:43

people of Saudi belief should be

done. They need to find an

0:19:430:19:45

alternative to oil and they need to

join the rest of the 21st-century.

0:19:450:19:50

Let me turn to my two guests. Do you

think this is for real? Often people

0:19:500:19:56

talk about reform but it isn't

there.

I think it is for real. There

0:19:560:20:00

is a huge wave of feminism in the

country. Something nobody talked

0:20:000:20:06

about before. Talked about how we

had a problem with... With the

0:20:060:20:11

religious establishment, with the

ideology. And to say that we had all

0:20:110:20:16

of that time, we wasted 30 years, we

won't waste another 30 years, and we

0:20:160:20:23

have to do something about it. I

think this is something somebody was

0:20:230:20:26

so happy to hear.

Presumably you

welcome this?

Absolutely.

Were other

0:20:260:20:33

people talking about it?

Yes, they

well, at least the people I have

0:20:330:20:38

seen and talked to, they are very

optimistic. They are thinking about

0:20:380:20:42

what is going to happen in the

country.

Do you feel this is real?

0:20:420:20:48

One thing you could do is liberate

it now, say we will take people out

0:20:480:20:55

of jail...

I believe it's real. One

issue is that in the short term a

0:20:550:21:01

shifting of tectonic plates, is a

completely revolutionary, is

0:21:010:21:05

something we did not expect to see

in our lifetime? Absolutely yes. My

0:21:050:21:09

concern is in the application and

the suggestive mistakes that he has

0:21:090:21:13

made, which you have mentioned, and

in the past few weeks, since he has

0:21:130:21:20

started to confront the religious

establishment, people have been

0:21:200:21:22

thrown in jail, banned from

travelling, and every high-profile

0:21:220:21:27

youth religious scholar and TV

presenter was banned from

0:21:270:21:29

travelling. That was just a day. My

concern is, is the application going

0:21:290:21:36

to be as smooth, and is the support

for him confined to Cosmopolitan,

0:21:360:21:43

elites, but in the hinterlands which

one of the senior royals referred

0:21:430:21:47

to, the people in the small towns

that haven't really, you know, come

0:21:470:21:50

with The Times, are they going to be

supportive?

You support the guy

0:21:500:22:01

obviously. Why is there still such

repression today? You could start

0:22:010:22:06

liberating more quickly for this

programme, you don't have to

0:22:060:22:08

envision 2030.

It's very hard. You

are talking about a country that has

0:22:080:22:14

been kept behind everyone else for

years and years. Now he is wanting

0:22:140:22:20

all of these changes. You cannot

imagine how much resistance there

0:22:200:22:24

was for the driving of women. There

still is. If you listen to people

0:22:240:22:29

talking about it, people are still

complaining, some people are not

0:22:290:22:32

happy with what the crown prince is

talking about. He has to fight all

0:22:320:22:36

that. But he is supported by all of

the young people of the country, who

0:22:360:22:41

have been travelling abroad, who

have studied abroad, you want to

0:22:410:22:44

find new jobs, who want to stop

travelling to other countries to

0:22:440:22:47

feel free. They want everything in

the country.

Should people worry

0:22:470:22:53

that the Crown Prince may mean it,

but the forces of conservatism are

0:22:530:22:57

just too strong postmark

assassination, you could imagine a

0:22:570:23:03

number of things, couldn't you? --

are just too strong?

I do worry. The

0:23:030:23:13

current generation has been on the

Internet, on social media for the

0:23:130:23:16

past 15 years. It is a very

different bedrock to people who have

0:23:160:23:23

tried reform before him. I'm not

concerned about the tailwind behind

0:23:230:23:28

him. I don't think there will be

that much resistance from the

0:23:280:23:33

establishment. I'm concerned about

the lessons that are learnt from the

0:23:330:23:38

last 30 years, as he refers to it, I

am afraid that those lessons will

0:23:380:23:45

not be learnt, in that there was

complicity on the half of the Royal

0:23:450:23:48

family to inject extremism and

radical language into the public

0:23:480:23:55

address of the country.

Religious

language?

Yes. This wasn't something

0:23:550:23:58

that was imposed by some disembodied

rich establishment, it was with the

0:23:580:24:04

full sanction and complicity of the

Royal family. To deny that was

0:24:040:24:09

something that they did and they

need to undo will be one of the big

0:24:090:24:12

tests.

We are not talking about

democracy in 2030, are we, or is

0:24:120:24:20

that the ultimate vision?

No. Let's

not get starry eyed. He is a

0:24:200:24:27

Democrat. Lots of people are getting

locked up for things they have said

0:24:270:24:31

on social media. It's not a

Western-style democracy, his aim, he

0:24:310:24:35

is aiming to liberate the economic

power of Saudi Arabia. To find jobs

0:24:350:24:41

for these millions of people pouring

out of schools and universities. The

0:24:410:24:45

risk is that there will be dark

forces gathering, people who don't

0:24:450:24:49

like what he is doing, and they will

remember what happened to the 1960s

0:24:490:24:56

moderniser. The Conservatives

opposed women's education,

0:24:560:25:00

television, he overruled them,

ultimately he was assassinated in

0:25:000:25:04

1975. God willing that isn't going

to happen.

Yemen is a blot on the

0:25:040:25:08

Saudi copybook of a serious kind.

Should we trust a guy who is behind

0:25:080:25:13

that to be the reformer?

You cannot

get everything you want from the

0:25:130:25:19

same person. You said Gorbachev.

Gorbachev did help in that way. At

0:25:190:25:25

the time it was not seem that way by

those in the soviet Union. You

0:25:250:25:29

always have to see everything.

It's

going to be a mixed bag. OK. An

0:25:290:25:37

interesting one to watch. Thank you

all very much.

0:25:370:25:39

The government means business

when it comes to Brexit,

0:25:390:25:41

even if we are not quite clear

what exact line of business that is.

0:25:410:25:45

Yet, it's real businesses that

will be on the front line of dealing

0:25:450:25:48

with any consequences.

0:25:480:25:49

In as far as a community can be said

to have a view on Brexit,

0:25:490:25:52

the business one has been

against it, or in favour

0:25:520:25:55

of the softer variants of it,

with a decent transitional period.

0:25:550:25:58

And above all, there's no enthusiasm

for a no-deal outcome.

0:25:580:26:02

In fact, real concern at it.

0:26:020:26:04

But while they might want it,

businesses have to be ready for it.

0:26:040:26:12

-- But while they might not want it,

businesses have to be ready for it.

0:26:120:26:16

Helen Thomas has been finding

out what that entails.

0:26:160:26:18

Before any big adventure,

it's wise to plan ahead.

0:26:180:26:21

Avoid getting left out in the cold,

go equipped for unexpected hazards.

0:26:210:26:25

Preparation can be the key

to a successful trip.

0:26:250:26:32

The government can't quite

get its story straight on whether

0:26:320:26:35

no deal is a negotiating tactic,

or a real possibility.

0:26:350:26:38

We are seeking to get a deal.

0:26:380:26:41

That is by far and away

the best option.

0:26:410:26:47

The maintenance of the option of no

deal is for both the negotiating

0:26:470:26:50

reasons and sensible security.

0:26:500:26:51

But with 17 months

to go, businesses are

0:26:510:26:53

starting to get ready.

0:26:530:26:56

I think firms are preparing

for the possibility of no deal,

0:26:560:26:58

because it's a logical possibility.

0:26:580:27:03

I think they are still optimistic

that we will strike a deal,

0:27:030:27:06

because it's in everyone's interest

to do that.

0:27:060:27:09

Particularly the larger firms, I'm

hearing more and more that they have

0:27:090:27:12

prepared contingency plans.

0:27:120:27:13

Some of them have

pressed a few buttons.

0:27:130:27:15

But what a number of them say to me

is, it's not one button,

0:27:150:27:20

a button every few weeks

as they adjust to new

0:27:200:27:22

assessment of the risk.

0:27:220:27:25

This isn't really about whether

Brexit is good or bad for Britain,

0:27:250:27:29

it's about being ready for anything,

being prepared for a no deal Brexit.

0:27:290:27:34

Broadly, that means leaving

the EU in March, 2019,

0:27:340:27:36

without the kind of comprehensive

free trade agreement

0:27:360:27:38

the government says it wants.

0:27:380:27:42

But even that isn't clear-cut.

0:27:420:27:47

People happy for us to leave

without a deal concede we might need

0:27:470:27:50

some basic agreements to keep planes

flying, say, or to stop a meltdown

0:27:500:27:54

in financial contracts.

0:27:540:28:00

In finance, no deal means no access

to European markets.

0:28:000:28:05

That risks cutting off

an industry that accounts

0:28:050:28:08

for 12% of UK tax receipts,

but regulators have forced banks to

0:28:080:28:11

get on with their no deal planning.

0:28:110:28:13

What they've done is they've

looked at the various

0:28:130:28:15

locations across Europe,

decided which one is the best one

0:28:150:28:17

for them, so maybe a place

where they have existing operations,

0:28:170:28:20

maybe that there are

competitors there.

0:28:200:28:22

They have started to acquire

a premises, so they've

0:28:220:28:27

got their offices,

they've started thinking

0:28:270:28:28

about the people they need

to move to those locations.

0:28:280:28:31

But crucially, they've started

to get the authorisations they need

0:28:310:28:35

to enable them to do

business in April, 2019.

0:28:350:28:41

Ingredients for Eisai's cancer

and epilepsy drugs crisscross

0:28:410:28:45

several borders before being made

in the UK for sale worldwide.

0:28:450:28:47

The rules say drugs

for sale in Europe must be

0:28:470:28:50

tested in an EU country.

0:28:500:28:53

So with no deal, Eisai,

a Japanese company,

0:28:530:28:55

needs a new facility.

0:28:550:28:58

We can't afford to wait any longer.

0:28:580:29:01

We're having to go out for tenders,

we're having to look to move that

0:29:010:29:07

part of the testing operation,

not the manufacturing,

0:29:070:29:09

but the testing to an EU member

state, and put things in place.

0:29:090:29:12

Ensuring no disruption

to drug supply in 2019

0:29:120:29:14

means spending money now.

0:29:140:29:17

We're talking many millions

of pounds to do this.

0:29:170:29:20

This is something

which will have no gain.

0:29:200:29:26

Literally, it will mean

we are doing in April, 2019,

0:29:260:29:28

what we would have been doing,

shall we say, in February, 2019,

0:29:280:29:31

so there is no gain.

0:29:310:29:33

Money that could have been spent

for developing new medicines,

0:29:330:29:40

bringing new cures to patients.

0:29:400:29:42

Other industries are planning, too.

0:29:420:29:45

One car maker told us

their manufacturing setup might not

0:29:450:29:47

work in a no deal outcome.

0:29:470:29:51

It could need more parts on site,

and new storage facilities.

0:29:510:29:53

It might not be terribly

complicated, but rather

0:29:530:29:55

like the negotiations,

it all takes time and money.

0:29:550:30:02

There is another

source of uncertainty.

0:30:020:30:05

A transition period is meant to make

life easier for businesses,

0:30:050:30:08

giving them time to adapt,

but will it be agreed early

0:30:080:30:10

enough to be useful?

0:30:100:30:15

And even then, will it be certain

enough for businesses to hang

0:30:150:30:18

investment or hiring decisions on?

0:30:180:30:28

The longer it takes,

we will have lost time,

0:30:360:30:38

jobs and investment in the UK.

0:30:380:30:40

A drip-drip, if you like.

0:30:400:30:41

Our view is that the end

of the year is a key moment,

0:30:410:30:44

that if a transition agreement

on status quo terms could be secured

0:30:440:30:47

by then, we will keep jobs

and investment in the UK.

0:30:470:30:50

But the real prize here

is the shape of the final deal.

0:30:500:30:53

They don't want an extension

of the cliff edge.

0:30:530:30:55

So the next thing that

would have to happen is,

0:30:550:30:57

the first half of next year,

all eyes on that final deal.

0:30:570:31:00

This week, the Prime Minister

suggested a transition agreement

0:31:000:31:02

could only come late next year.

0:31:020:31:04

A bit of government backtracking

later, and don't panic,

0:31:040:31:06

it might land much only.

0:31:060:31:07

I wonder, is there anything here

that can unscramble mixed messages?

0:31:070:31:12

Helen Thomas there.

0:31:130:31:16

We did ask the department for

exiting the EU and the department

0:31:160:31:19

for international trade to join us

on the programme but

0:31:190:31:21

nobody was available.

0:31:210:31:25

Our political editor

Nick Watt is here, though,

0:31:250:31:27

Nick, you have some more details

tonight on how the government

0:31:270:31:29

is getting on with Brexit?

0:31:290:31:33

The government confirmed that the

committee stage will begin on the

0:31:330:31:37

14th of November, the joke doing the

rounds with the backbenches is the

0:31:370:31:42

government will put out a slew of

amendments to its own Bill to avoid

0:31:420:31:45

a Tory rebellion. Interesting, I was

talking to somebody close to the

0:31:450:31:51

whips, the feeling is they need to

reach out to Dominic grieve, the

0:31:510:31:55

former Attorney General, who is one

of the main potential rebels. It

0:31:550:31:58

looks like we may have a committee

of both houses to look at the

0:31:580:32:04

so-called Henry VIII clauses. He is

worried the changes could be made

0:32:040:32:08

without the government having a say.

It will be a committee.

A traffic

0:32:080:32:14

light system. Another idea he has is

that it would bring back the

0:32:140:32:18

European Charter of fundamental

rights, that looks more difficult.

0:32:180:32:21

So, friendly messages there, but the

word from the land of the whips is,

0:32:210:32:26

we're being nice to you, but we

don't have too, because we don't

0:32:260:32:30

believe the rebels have the numbers.

The rebels are saying they mean it,

0:32:300:32:35

they are serious.

0:32:350:32:38

Universities are feeling a bit

picked upon this week.

0:32:380:32:40

One Tory whip appeared to be

inquiring about pro-Brexit

0:32:400:32:43

sympathies among the lecturers.

0:32:430:32:44

He denied it was an attack on free

thinking at colleges; but then

0:32:440:32:47

the Daily Mail today went in hard

on the idea that our universities

0:32:470:32:50

are a bastion of remainer resistance

to the popular will.

0:32:500:32:52

A kind of fifth column.

0:32:520:32:54

But would it matter anyway?

0:32:540:32:55

Do we need our academics to be

politically representative

0:32:550:32:57

of a population at large?

0:32:570:33:00

Possibly, you might say,

if academics are unaware

0:33:000:33:02

of their own biases.

0:33:020:33:05

We'll argue about whether it

matters, but first a little

0:33:050:33:07

evidence on the subject,

from our policy editor Chris Cook.

0:33:070:33:11

It feels like a culture war is

underway in Britain. The Daily Mail

0:33:130:33:18

is clearly on one side, universities

are on the other.

0:33:180:33:22

You can see why the Mail is grumpy,

it's a phenomenon observed around

0:33:220:33:25

the world that, well,

students like dissent,

0:33:250:33:29

and more educated people

tend to skew more liberal.

0:33:290:33:33

You can see that

in the referendum results.

0:33:330:33:36

68% of graduates went for Remain,

but people with the most GCSE level

0:33:360:33:40

qualifications backed Leave

by similar margins.

0:33:400:33:48

There are a few threats to consider.

First, socialisation.

0:33:480:33:50

Students spent time with other

students, whose views are

0:33:500:33:53

to the left of the country at large.

So are those of their lecturers.

0:33:530:33:58

Here's a result of a poll from

around the 2015 election, showing

0:33:580:34:01

the relative support at that moment

of the four biggest parties.

0:34:010:34:04

And here's what things look like

just for higher education staff.

0:34:040:34:08

A lot more Labour and Lib Dem voters

are working on campus.

0:34:080:34:12

Second, universities are not

as a homogenous as they once were.

0:34:120:34:19

15% of academics are from

elsewhere in Europe, 16% of

0:34:190:34:22

research funding is from the EU,

the very internationalist bodies.

0:34:220:34:25

Third, the consensus

in economics or Brexit

0:34:250:34:27

is that it will leave us poorer.

0:34:270:34:29

Now, the academics may be wrong,

and consensus can be afflicted

0:34:290:34:31

by groupthink and bias.

0:34:310:34:35

But, by and large, academics

will only teach things

0:34:350:34:37

they genuinely believe to be true.

0:34:370:34:45

Well, with me is Steven Glover,

who wrote a column about this

0:34:450:34:48

for the Mail today,

and Professor Barry Smith

0:34:480:34:50

who lectures in philosophy

at the University of London.

0:34:500:34:54

Welcome, both of you. What was your

point today, Steven, the point of

0:34:540:34:59

the headline, our Remainer

universities, what was the fear

0:34:590:35:05

underlying?

I don't write the

headlines, but the point was, there

0:35:050:35:09

are a lot of Remainers teaching at

our universities. And some of them

0:35:090:35:16

are probably putting pressure on

students to think...

It is the

0:35:160:35:21

pressure on the students?

There are

plenty of examples in today's Daily

0:35:210:35:26

Mail, universities sending e-mails

to students, exhortation is to

0:35:260:35:36

students to vote in a certain way.

And afterwards, other examples,

0:35:360:35:41

which at the worst involve bullying.

So I think it... It blew up because

0:35:410:35:47

a Tory MP wandered naively into a

new letter, that's how it blew up.

0:35:470:35:55

But it is a matter of public

interest that universities, which

0:35:550:35:58

are very good in this country, they

do tend to be very, very pro-remain.

0:35:580:36:05

Is it right that the fesses should

tell students how to vote? Is that

0:36:050:36:11

good practice, or advising them how

to vote?

They should be putting the

0:36:110:36:16

arguments before them. When we hear

now from the Daily Mail that there

0:36:160:36:22

is a worry about so many university

professors being anti-Brexit, it

0:36:220:36:27

would be irresponsible not to be, if

they think they have arguments and

0:36:270:36:30

evidence to suggest it might be a

bad thing for this country.

Is it

0:36:300:36:34

not that there may be biases and

prejudices of their own, which they

0:36:340:36:42

are teaching students? You might

lecture students and give them both

0:36:420:36:47

sides of the argument, or teach them

in a Broadway, but not profit

0:36:470:36:51

arising to students.

We will have

two C. We have heard an act is ace

0:36:510:36:59

and there is anti-Brexit bias. We

have two wonder whether they are

0:36:590:37:07

hearing inconvenient truths. When I

hear people say, anti-Brexit bias, I

0:37:070:37:11

don't hear a lot of bottle of the

ordinance put forward in

0:37:110:37:15

universities. I hear argument is to

close down the discussion.

The big

0:37:150:37:18

picture is, though, you are worried

because universities are more

0:37:180:37:22

left-wing than the population at

large. A lot of the copy in your

0:37:220:37:25

column was about left-wing voting,

rather than Remainers. If they are

0:37:250:37:34

pointed in a competitive way, does

it matter if they end up in quite a

0:37:340:37:38

different place from the population

who are less educated? Is that a

0:37:380:37:42

problem?

It is true that

intellectuals probably, if you pick

0:37:420:37:47

100, 70-80 will be on the left.

This

turns out to be true everywhere.

0:37:470:37:56

Students go to university to be

told, to be taught how to think.

0:37:560:38:00

That's the point of university.

They

don't need a newspaper to be told

0:38:000:38:07

what happens. But your newspaper

goes further than that!

The Daily

0:38:070:38:11

Mail, lots of newspapers say

different things, it is just a tiny

0:38:110:38:15

part of the media.

But the average

professor, of course, has just one

0:38:150:38:19

voice, and there are lots of other

voices that affect students.

Of

0:38:190:38:26

course, we don't know. I don't think

professors should be coerces and

0:38:260:38:33

should tell students how to vote, or

how they should think.

Barry, I am

0:38:330:38:39

interested in the issue of biases.

Do you accent that group thinking,

0:38:390:38:45

confirmation bias, where you look

for information that supports your

0:38:450:38:49

view. Do you think these afflict

university teachers?

They may do. We

0:38:490:38:56

teach it, we talk about it, we

expose it. Groupthink and the

0:38:560:39:01

consequences of that, and how it

might be set up are taught and

0:39:010:39:04

discussed in psychology. I think we

are aware of it some copies are, or

0:39:040:39:11

even government parties. The thing

we must be careful with is the idea

0:39:110:39:17

that our younger people, students at

university, are so impressionable,

0:39:170:39:20

so easily led, that if a university

professor has a view and expresses

0:39:200:39:24

it, they take it on immediately.

If

you do accept that you have these

0:39:240:39:29

biases, it is quite interesting to

be told by a newspaper or a

0:39:290:39:32

government minister what kind of

prevailing views are. It may not be

0:39:320:39:40

McCarthy, let's just be aware, these

are the values you are starting

0:39:400:39:44

with, and there may be confirmation

biases.

We need to ask that and look

0:39:440:39:48

at it. But look, most of the Cabinet

and most of the previous cabinet in

0:39:480:39:53

the Conservative government were

educated at universities. If they

0:39:530:39:57

are so left wing, I can't see the

effect of it seeping in. This may be

0:39:570:40:04

interesting, because people talk

about becoming more right wing and

0:40:040:40:07

Conservative as you get older. This

may be a phase they pass through.

0:40:070:40:12

Are you proud of Britain's

universities?

Yes. Yes, I am.

You

0:40:120:40:17

wrote about them this morning as

hysterical, patronising, elitist.

0:40:170:40:22

You don't sound very proud.

What I

said was, the reaction was

0:40:220:40:28

hysterical. He has been called

Leninist, accused of censoring

0:40:280:40:39

universities, it was a

straightforward letter, completely

0:40:390:40:41

open, not perhaps very intelligent.

And the reaction...

The official

0:40:410:40:45

point is, you are proud of our

universities.

They're not perfect.

0:40:450:40:51

But if you look at the University

international league tables, Al

0:40:510:40:54

universities are good.

Thank you,

both, very much.

0:40:540:40:58

That's about it for this evening.

0:40:580:40:59

But to leave you, Canadian artist

Stan Douglas has spent much

0:40:590:41:02

of his career exploring moments

that, in his words,

0:41:020:41:04

rupture the status quo.

0:41:040:41:05

In his latest exhibition,

on at the Victoria Miro gallery

0:41:050:41:11

Douglas has re-created

the London riots of 2011.

0:41:110:41:13

He chose images from the news,

flew a helicopter over the exact

0:41:130:41:16

locations and spent four months

digitally rendering the pictures.

0:41:160:41:18

The resulting large-format images

are incredibly detailed.

0:41:180:41:20

The idea is to get the viewer

to pause, and consider

0:41:200:41:23

how the people, the police

and objects are interacting.

0:41:230:41:25

Take a look. Goodnight.

0:41:250:41:35

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