21/11/2017 Newsnight


21/11/2017

With Emily Maitlis. The first interview with Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai since Robert Mugabe's resignation. Plus what can be expected in tomorrow's Budget?


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Transcript


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A country in ecstasy,

as Robert Mugabe steps down.

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He resigns, after

nearly four decades

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at Zimbabwe's helm.

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But will it be more

of the same in Zimbabwe?

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We speak to Morgan Tsvangirai,

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the opposition leader and one-time

Prime Minister,

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who battled Mugabe

at the ballot box.

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So, like in any new birth, I think

the celebration represents a new...

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A new feeling.

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And I think it will go

down like in 1980,

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when we got our independence,

as a very memorable occasion.

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Also tonight...

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Ahead of the budget,

the Chancellor will be dotting

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the Is and crossing the Ts.

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But do we really need something

far, far more radical?

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We report from Middlesborough.

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At the moment, struggling.

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When the food runs out,

I'll start crying, and...

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And I'll...ask my daughter -

hopefully she'll have

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something for me.

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Or my son, my eldest son.

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And... But I ain't spending any time

on it because in the meantime, every

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three months, a person is torn to

pieces by a crocodile in Queensland.

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Good evening.

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When it happened, it almost

happened too quickly.

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A letter read out in parliament that

would herald the biggest

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political change the country

has known for decades.

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And then, gently, like a ripple,

word spread until it hit

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the streets, stopping conversations

in mid flow, starting tears -

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unbidden, unhidden

and unembarrassed.

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Robert Mugabe no

longer rules Zimbabwe.

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That much still needs to sink in.

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Tonight we ask how this very

peaceful coup has managed to do

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what it set out to do,

and whether Zimbabwe's next leader

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will truly be a break

with what has gone before.

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We also get the world's first

interview after the news broke

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with Zimbabwe's opposition leader

and one-time prime minister

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Morgan Tsvingirai.

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All that to come, but we start,

where else, but Harare.

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Our correspondent

Shingai Nyoka is there.

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Tell us what kind of David has been

for you.

It's been the most

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extraordinary day that I can

remember since independence in 1980.

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I was a young girl then but I

remember the celebration and the

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euphoria, the sense that this was a

new beginning. And the scenes that I

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have witnessed a few hours ago today

really brought back that sense, that

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glimmer of hope, and I saw that in

the eyes of Zimbabweans who now

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believe that after 37 years, they

now have a real sense of change.

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What do you think happens tomorrow?

Is anyone talking about that, or is

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it just an endless party?

It is an

endless party at the moment. Those

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questions are being asked now that

President Robert Mugabe has stepped

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down, who will take over? Everybody

knows that this stage that his

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sacked vice president and long-time

ally Emmerson Mnangagwa will be

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sworn in as president and that will

happen tomorrow or the day after.

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But at this stage Zimbabweans are

saying that they want to savour the

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moment and they don't want to think

about what will happen tomorrow.

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As you've seen, Zimbabwe

is in party mode tonight.

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What can it be

like for a leader to watch these

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scenes of jubilation

and reflect on how happy you've

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made your own people by going?

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Mike Thompson looks at what Zimbabwe

feels like tonight,

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and what the future may now hold.

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The crowds had waited a long,

long time for the news.

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And when it came, it was met

by an outpouring of joy

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not seen in decades.

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After impeachment proceedings got

underway, President Robert Mugabe's

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resignation letter was

finally read to the House.

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CHEERING

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Outside, some found it

all too much to take in.

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I'm very happy.

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I don't have anything

to say, but I'm

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happy with this.

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Mugabe has...

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I don't have any words to say now.

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37 years with one

president, is doesn't

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make any sense.

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So this time it is a new era

for us as a nation.

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We were tired of this

man, we are so glad he

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has gone.

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We don't want him any more.

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And yes, today it is victory.

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It is victory in our hearts.

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It is victory for our children.

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But how long will this euphoria

continuing coverage will the man

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expected to replace Mugabe, his

former henchmen and vice president

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Emmerson Mnangagwa, sweep away

oppression? Is the nation simply

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swapping one tyrant for another?

He

has some skeletons in his cupboard

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as a former henchmen of Mugabe. But

we know he is more open to change

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double Mugabe. He's also more open

for Western involvement.

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Independence in 1980 promised much

under a man who seemed to value

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democracy and human rights. As the

years went by, repression through

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and Zimbabwe evolved into a virtual

1-party state. Only Mugabe's party,

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Zanu-PF, is allowed to win

elections.

There is no room for

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opposition at the heart of

government. Zanu-PF, but it, there

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is no Prime Minister from anywhere

else. The first thing we will see is

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whether there will be constitutional

amendments to allow for that.

Given

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that the figure likely to be

president initially at least has a

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reputation as a hard man, on used to

compromise, such amendments might be

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hard to get. But some take the view

that having finally got rid of

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Mugabe after 37 long years, the

momentum for change is now

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unstoppable.

Politicians, they all

focus on power. But we will focus on

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them delivering on the issues that

they promised, we will focus on

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delivering our rights. So, it's not

going to be easy but right now, the

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people of Zimbabwe have the

confidence to stand up for their

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rights and to demand the right to be

respected.

Few will be looking too

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far into the future just now. In the

coming days, it is more likely to be

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celebrations of the dawn of a new

era which many thought might never

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come.

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The Mugabe resignation came

by letter, in mid-afternoon.

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Just a few minutes later,

I spoke to the opposition leader,

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Morgan Tsvangirai himself.

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The MDC leader contested Mugabe

in 2008, winning more votes

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than Mugabe in the first round.

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But when he tried to claim

the presidency, he encountered

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widepsread violence and intimidation

by government supporters,

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and withdrew, offering instead

to power-share with Mugabe,

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which he eventually did,

with limited success.

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I began by asking Tsvangirai if it

would open the door to real

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democracy in the country.

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One would hope that

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it opens a new trajectory

where people are respected and that

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the rule of law is restored.

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Does that mean, then,

that you will sit quietly

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by until August 2018?

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You won't press for free

and fair elections before

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that date of August?

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Absolutely not.

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My role is to ensure

that the MDC has a role to play

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during these eight

months that are there.

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The fact that this transition

happened internally,

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Zanu-PF passing from one leader

to the next, suggests

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the opposition, your party, the MDC,

had no role to play at all?

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Well, remember that this was not...

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Yes, there was an internal

Zanu-PF factionalism.

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But remember that it is

the military which intervened

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in that faction war.

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Does that mean that

Zanu PF is united?

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Far from it.

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What about MDC?

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You are the opposition party

and yet you have seen this

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happen as bystanders?

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Well, we're not the military.

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It is only the military which has

taken an interventionist role.

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So, as far as we are concerned,

our role will always be democratic.

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Do you think it was a mistake

for you to agree to support

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the Mugabe government in 2008

after those elections?

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You wanted to go in and be part

of that - looking back,

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was that a mistake?

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Well, it was a strategic

intervention.

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Our people were suffering

and we needed to rescue the country.

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So, it was not a mistake.

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I don't regret it at all.

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If you ask Zimbabweans, 85% of them

did not care about Mugabe,

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they cared about their welfare.

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And because of our intervention,

we were able to rescue

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Zimbabweans from a very dire

situation that existed.

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And will you stand in the elections

in August of 2018, do you want to be

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Zimbabwe's next president?

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Well, it's too early to tell.

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But definitely my party will decide

and my alliance partners

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will decide whether I will be

a candidate or not.

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What should happen to Robert Mugabe

now, would you like to see him

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indicted for war crimes?

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No, I don't think so.

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I think to pursue the old man

would be a futile exercise.

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I think let him go

and rest his last days.

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So, you bear him no ill will?

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No, I don't.

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I don't have any ill will at all.

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In fact, my call for him has

always been, why don't

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you find a dignified exit?

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That is why Zimbabweans have

been pressurising him.

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And you have claimed that this

is a victory for the Army.

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Zanu-PF has said it is not a coup.

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Do you see it as a coup?

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No, but I've never said

it is a victory for the army.

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I said the army intervened.

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But the people supported them.

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I don't want to get into arguments

about was it a coup,

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was it not a coup.

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As far as the people are concerned,

it's something that was desirable

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and maybe the means

justifies the end.

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People will look back

in years to come on this

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day in November 2017.

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Tell them what this day means

in history, the day that

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Robert Mugabe resigned?

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Well, I'm sure that the people

of Zimbabwe will look back

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to this day with a hearty

degree of nostalgia.

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Because it's something

that they have been wishing

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for for the last five years.

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But it's been very difficult

to achieve because of the machinery

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that has been put to prevent it.

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So, like in any new birth,

I think the celebration

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represents a new feeling.

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And I think it will go

down like in 1980,

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when we got our independence,

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as a very memorable occasion.

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The opposition leader there saying

Mugabe should not be

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indicted for war crimes,

and that he didn't know

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if he would ever stand

again for President.

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So, where will the country wake up

with its collective hangover?

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Will Zimbabwe seem like

a new place tomorrow?

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Joining me now are Xavier Zavare

from Robert Mugabe's party, Zanu-PF,

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the Zimbabwean journalist

Georgina Godwin, and Miles Tendi,

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a Zimbabwean writer and academic,

who lectures at Oxford University -

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but first our diplomatic

editor Mark Urban.

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It does all seem incredibly peaceful

and happy, this whole transition was

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ultimately smooth. But was it a

takeover essentially Bardiani?

Well,

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it's undoubtedly anything which

sends shudders through many of the

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established powers that be

throughout Africa. We saw that in

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the African Union statement that

greeted the initial move by the

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military, very much against this

idea of the military taking power.

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Many people in the region worry

about it, many people speculate

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about Jacob Zuma in South Africa,

how much he worries about it and the

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extent to which he tries to

influence this transition, worrying

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about how it was going. I suppose

all you can say from the point of

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view of somebody like Jacob Zuma is

that the very things which are

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concerning to the opposition about

the way this is happening, in other

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words, the crocodile Emmerson

Mnangagwa is a creature of Zanu-PF

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and the apparatus which has

engineered that, are things which

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will give him comfort in this

situation.

Do you think this is easy

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for the international community, is

there one clear line in terms of how

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they respond to this now?

Well, a

fair bit of emphasis being put by

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foreign ministries around the world

on the need for a move towards free

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and fair elections, that type of

thing, the sort of thing you would

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expect them to say just what I have

to say that in a situation like

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this, where you've had so long under

somebody in charge who is considered

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so undesirable and so difficult to

get along with by the international

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community, everyone will want to

take advantage of this reset, even

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if he doesn't prove in the long run

to be so different to President

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Mugabe, they will want to deal with

somebody that gives them a fresh

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chance to reset on trade, on tourism

and to take advantage of this

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moment.

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Let's join our guests now. Georgina,

what does that mean for your life

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now?

It is extraordinary, this is

the one goal I have been working

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towards professionally all my life.

I hardly remember a time without

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Robert Mugabe, he has influenced

every sphere of my life and it is

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too big for words almost.

Have you

spoken to family or friends back

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home?

I have and they are absolutely

elated as are my butt with a note of

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caution and I think that is

something we all must be aware. It

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is important for us to celebrate and

God knows we have had this coming

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for a long time but I do think this

is our moment and we have to seize

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the opportunity. I also think it is

incredibly important to honour the

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people that got us to this point and

perhaps even need a second wave of

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war veterans, to honour people in

some way because so many people have

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suffered and the people in Zimbabwe

who did not eat today will not

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necessarily eat tomorrow.

So when

you said note of caution, what is

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that referring to?

Everyone involved

with Zanu PF in any way is somehow

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associated with everything Robert

Mugabe did and can a leopard change

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its spots, we do not know but there

is this window of opportunity. You

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have the international community

watching and you have, you cannot

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put the genie back in the box, you

have the people now who have tasted

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freedom and the army who for once

did not have too oppressed people.

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Why should anyone in Zimbabwe now

believe that Emmerson Mnangagwa will

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be any different to the man who he

governed alongside as vice president

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for all those years, Xavier Zavare?

I think there is a reason to believe

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in Emmerson Mnangagwa in the sense

that for the first time he will be

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able to come out of the shell and be

himself. The Emmerson Mnangagwa we

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know is very pragmatic in terms of

situations. He is also a good

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listener in terms of everyone he

works around with.

You worked, he

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worked alongside Mugabe with the

massacres, the corruption, why would

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he not back that government now?

Well he needs to have his own legacy

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away from Robert Mugabe and he will

have to work very hard for that. And

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that is a source of comfort for me

and source of belief that he will

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want to do very well and do things

differently. Even one of the

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challenges why he ran for his life

was this argument behind the scenes

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that he was having with Mugabe.

And

Miles, do you think that Emmerson

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Mnangagwa then becomes in charge of

Zimbabwe or is that the army pulling

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the strings question mark that is a

good question and I would like to

0:18:120:18:17

move beyond personalities, this was

done by the army.

I call them deep

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state, they will not go away and the

important question to ask as well,

0:18:230:18:29

when Emmerson Mnangagwa becomes

president is is he really in charge

0:18:290:18:32

or is it the Army behind the scenes.

That are running the show. You do

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not think he called on the Army but

the Army called on him, a decision

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that came from the military?

He may

have called on the Army but the

0:18:420:18:48

military did the work. And in that

sense he owes them. While he was

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away from the country the Army did

this. So they have a significant

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hold of him.

Is that how Zanu PF

likes to see it now, that the Army

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can bring him in, replacing, they

may be calling the shots?

I do not

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think our defence forces would like

to operate that way. The evidence of

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what we've seen is that they have

tried as much as they can with this

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intervention to let the government

function, to make sure that the

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world understands it is not a cool.

They're just helping out in a

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difficult situation. I do not think

they would want to be seen

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continuing being involved, they will

just go back to their barracks and

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remain as professional as they have

always been.

Do you sit back and

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think this is a change for Zimbabwe,

using the Army in a very peaceful

0:19:400:19:46

way?

It is not a coup? That language

had to be used in order not to

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stimulate regional fight back. But I

think the Army themselves, the rank

0:19:550:19:59

and file where out there having

selfies done with citizens, those

0:19:590:20:03

are their brothers and sisters and I

think the Army now have had that

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taste of being part of the crowd, of

all that joy and I think that cannot

0:20:070:20:13

be stopped. I also think it is

wonderful for us to be here together

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tonight because as Morgan said in a

speech earlier today we must go

0:20:180:20:23

forward in hope and joy. And I think

the only way forward is to say some

0:20:230:20:29

terrible things happened, we

acknowledge that and we have to move

0:20:290:20:32

on and have some kind of unity.

It

is interesting how little

0:20:320:20:38

recrimination is, I was amazed

speaking to Morgan Tsvangirai that

0:20:380:20:40

he did not want to talk about

indictment or imprisonment. What

0:20:400:20:44

happens now to Mugabe?

I do not

think much will happen to him

0:20:440:20:51

because the people who replaced him

with the people...

Essentially he

0:20:510:20:55

will be left to die an old man?

Because the people who replaced him

0:20:550:21:00

did his dirty work and if you bring

him down that would bring them down

0:21:000:21:03

as well.

Are there any Mugabe

supporters left in the country

0:21:030:21:10

tonight, how does a man who has been

held in power for 37 years suddenly

0:21:100:21:14

have no wonder they're on the ground

who supports him question what it is

0:21:140:21:19

not necessary that he does not have

supporters any more because many

0:21:190:21:23

people still appreciate former

President Mugabe for what he did.

Of

0:21:230:21:31

course we must accept that he also

made mistakes in his later years but

0:21:310:21:36

for what he did in the early years

of independence, the education he

0:21:360:21:42

introduced, and everything that he

did for the black majority will

0:21:420:21:47

always be remembered.

But it

happened quickly, not a telling off,

0:21:470:21:53

was this a fear of Grace Mugabe?

Know I think what happened, Mugabe

0:21:530:21:58

did retain significant support on

the ground but because the process

0:21:580:22:01

of his removal has been militarised,

many of the MPs who went out to cast

0:22:010:22:09

the impeachment vote were told to do

so by the Army.

They were worried

0:22:090:22:13

that the wife would take over? All

these quotes like democracy is not

0:22:130:22:19

sexually transmitted and all these

placards people held up in the

0:22:190:22:22

streets. Is this a misogyny, what

kind of people can put up with a

0:22:220:22:28

dictator who commits God knows what

kind of atrocities for 30 years and

0:22:280:22:32

more and then says no to the wife?

Zanu PF is an institution and it has

0:22:320:22:43

a way of doing things and the way

the wife was now doing things is

0:22:430:22:49

contrary to what Zanu PF has always

been. Everything that the wife was

0:22:490:22:54

doing is against the principles that

we believe in as Zanu PF, against

0:22:540:23:01

the constitution of the PF itself.

And you can get away with it if you

0:23:010:23:08

are asked someone who has liberated

the country but she did not and that

0:23:080:23:11

was part of it.

Thank you all very

much.

0:23:110:23:13

Well, tomorrow it's

Phillip Hammond's turn to use

0:23:130:23:15

long, economicky words.

0:23:150:23:17

He may choose, however,

to keep tomorrow's budget simple.

0:23:170:23:19

His task is to ease austerity

with what little money

0:23:190:23:21

he has at his disposal.

0:23:210:23:23

And to sound less gloomy

about Brexit than he may be feeling.

0:23:230:23:27

The chancellor will announce

an education package of around

0:23:270:23:29

£177 million to promote maths skills

- part of a drive towards

0:23:290:23:32

productivity and learning -

as well as a little bit more

0:23:320:23:35

for teacher training.

0:23:350:23:36

Perhaps the hardest challenge

for the government right now

0:23:360:23:39

is working out how to bring young

people, voting in their droves

0:23:390:23:42

for Corbyn at the last election,

into the Conservative fold.

0:23:420:23:44

Here's Chris Cook.

0:23:440:23:51

As we've got closer and closer

to finding out what's

0:23:510:23:54

in the Chancellor's red box,

it's become clearer and clearer

0:23:540:23:56

that the space he has to wield it

has shrunk and shrunk.

0:23:560:24:03

His last budget in March was hardly

a giveaway to begin with.

0:24:030:24:06

Since then, though,

his options haven't improved.

0:24:060:24:09

Economists worry in particular

about something that they refer

0:24:090:24:11

to as "head rooom".

0:24:110:24:14

That's the term they give

to the amount of money

0:24:140:24:16

that the Chancellor has on hand

without needing to raise taxes that

0:24:160:24:19

can be put towards spending

increases or tax cuts or coping

0:24:190:24:23

with unforeseen events.

0:24:230:24:28

The problem that Philip Hammond has

going into this budget

0:24:280:24:31

is that the amount of head room

he thought he has has been

0:24:310:24:34

massively decreased.

0:24:340:24:38

This former OBR economist

explains what's happened.

0:24:380:24:43

The single biggest problem

that the Chancellor is facing

0:24:430:24:45

is that productivity is not growing

as fast as it once did.

0:24:450:24:51

We're not getting more efficient

at producing things and this means

0:24:510:24:54

the economy is going to grow more

slowly in the future

0:24:540:24:56

than it has in the past.

0:24:560:24:58

And this means there will be less

money to spend because tax revenue

0:24:580:25:01

will be slower as well.

0:25:010:25:02

Productivity is a long-term problem.

0:25:020:25:05

Back in 2010 the OBR had to forecast

what they thought would happen to it

0:25:050:25:09

and so they assumed it

would just rise.

0:25:090:25:12

But it didn't.

0:25:120:25:15

This is where we were by late 2013.

0:25:150:25:18

Productivity growth had stalled.

0:25:180:25:20

And what did the OBR

forecast say then?

0:25:200:25:23

Well, it predicted productivity

growth was just around the corner.

0:25:230:25:26

But it wasn't.

0:25:260:25:29

This is where we thought

we were at this last March budget.

0:25:290:25:38

The forecast once again was,

it's just about to take off.

0:25:380:25:41

And guess what, that was wrong, too.

0:25:410:25:42

With big consequences

for the Chancellor.

0:25:420:25:44

The Chancellor has a target.

0:25:440:25:47

And last time at the budget he had

about £26 billion of head room

0:25:470:25:51

against that target in the year

2020 - 2021.

0:25:510:25:54

Now because growth is slower,

this means he has much less head

0:25:540:25:57

room against that target,

probably only around £13 billion.

0:25:570:26:04

£13 billion of head room is a lot

of money, but it could easily be

0:26:040:26:07

eaten by future downgrades.

0:26:070:26:10

And a large slug of it

could go into one public

0:26:100:26:15

spending line in particular.

0:26:150:26:17

The government has already pencilled

in 2.5 billion extra cash

0:26:170:26:19

for the NHS next year.

0:26:190:26:21

But that really is just to keep

in line with inflation.

0:26:210:26:24

We estimate that on top

of that the NHS will

0:26:240:26:26

need another 4 billion.

0:26:260:26:28

And that is to keep up

with the demand for NHS services,

0:26:280:26:31

so effectively the increasing level

of patients coming in to the system.

0:26:310:26:38

Last week Simon Stephens,

the NHS England chief executive,

0:26:380:26:40

called for Vote Leave's promises

of extra NHS cash to be honoured.

0:26:400:26:46

By the end of the next financial

year for the NHS, March 2019,

0:26:460:26:50

the United Kingdom will have left

the European Union.

0:26:500:26:55

Trust in democratic politics

will not be strengthened

0:26:550:26:59

if anyone now tries to argue,

you voted Brexit partly for a better

0:26:590:27:02

funded health service,

but precisely because of Brexit,

0:27:020:27:04

you now can't have one.

0:27:040:27:09

Without extra money,

the health and social care system

0:27:090:27:11

faces further degradation in care

quality and waiting times.

0:27:110:27:18

But the Chancellor's slim room

for manoeuvre means it will be hard

0:27:180:27:24

for him to find very much NHS cash

without tax rises.

0:27:240:27:30

Nick Watt has had his nose

to the ground much of the week.

0:27:300:27:36

What are you sniffing out? This is

one of the key moment since the

0:27:360:27:40

general election and Philip Hammond

tomorrow must reach out to those

0:27:400:27:43

under the age of 50 who preferred

label -- preferred Labour. But it

0:27:430:27:50

got off to a scrappy start, one of

the dullest press releases ever

0:27:500:27:55

previewing the budget, talking about

was all to embrace change was a

0:27:550:28:00

vastly less exciting than the quite

interesting interviews Philip

0:28:000:28:02

Hammond did at the weekend on BBC

and the Sunday Times and then two

0:28:020:28:07

hours later a more interesting press

release, talking about a £42 million

0:28:070:28:13

investment in teacher training in

deprived areas and £177 million

0:28:130:28:17

investment in the maths teaching for

the Treasury sources said that there

0:28:170:28:22

will be plums tomorrow and you heard

from Chris Cook about how the

0:28:220:28:25

Chancellor has little room for

manoeuvre. There is a feeling that

0:28:250:28:29

things have looked a bit better in

the last month or so, the Eurozone

0:28:290:28:33

bouncing up which is good for the UK

and that will help tax revenues and

0:28:330:28:37

productivity which was looking

dreadful now ticking up a little

0:28:370:28:40

bit.

More broadly where is he going

on spending?

The key thing is this

0:28:400:28:48

head room. He had £26 billion in

March and now just below £10

0:28:480:28:53

billion. What is interesting is that

because this is the first fiscal

0:28:530:28:57

event since the general election,

this will make in what was a change

0:28:570:29:02

at the general election so in the

general election the Tories said

0:29:020:29:05

they would balance the budget with

no deficit by the middle of the next

0:29:050:29:10

decade. Before that at the time of

the Autumn Statement it was 21, 22

0:29:100:29:15

so what that does is give the

Chancellor another three or four

0:29:150:29:20

years to spend the difference

between what is the borrowing target

0:29:200:29:24

of 2% of national income by the end

of the decade and the balance of the

0:29:240:29:29

budget, spending the difference

between 2% and 0% for three or four

0:29:290:29:33

years.

0:29:330:29:36

Budgets by their very

nature tweak and tease -

0:29:360:29:38

one constituency of people feel

a little better,

0:29:380:29:40

another a little worse.

0:29:400:29:41

But what if we need to radically

reshape our economy into something

0:29:410:29:44

that picks up the disenfranchised

in our society?

0:29:440:29:49

Those who, bluntly put,

sometimes barely have enough to eat.

0:29:490:29:51

We report tonight

from Middlesbrough,

0:29:510:29:53

and from a part of that town

0:29:530:29:54

where house prices are amongst

the lowest in the country -

0:29:540:29:57

£49,000 on average in 2017,

having fallen by 47% since 2007.

0:29:570:30:07

I've lived here for 15 years.

0:30:150:30:18

The area's just gone down.

0:30:180:30:19

Loads of gangs round here,

and just the community,

0:30:190:30:22

it's not how it used to be.

0:30:220:30:26

The house prices are, like,

going down in this area.

0:30:260:30:31

There's not that much

increase in wages.

0:30:310:30:37

So, people, like the general

public's buying power has gone down.

0:30:370:30:42

You run out of cash,

you run out of food.

0:30:420:30:44

And that's the end of it.

0:30:440:30:54

It makes me feel a bit

sad, because I know

0:31:020:31:05

I'm leaving in a week.

0:31:050:31:10

And it's been my home

for, like, 14 years.

0:31:100:31:12

So, I do feel like a bit

of an ending is coming, really.

0:31:120:31:15

So, I've had my house up for sale

for a while, I'm wanting to move

0:31:150:31:19

because the area has gone really

downhill and is quite deprived now.

0:31:190:31:22

And property, houses,

are dropping quite rapidly.

0:31:220:31:23

Well, you don't need that.

0:31:230:31:25

All right, bin that.

0:31:250:31:27

We've got people who are dealing

drugs on the street,

0:31:270:31:30

there's a lot more different

cultured people and with different

0:31:300:31:33

morals, different...

0:31:330:31:36

Erm, nobody working,

people up all night play music loud.

0:31:360:31:40

And my house has been burgled

and I don't particularly feel safe

0:31:400:31:43

any more when I live by myself

on this street.

0:31:430:31:45

You don't need sun lotion.

0:31:450:31:47

No, but it's brand-new that,

I don't want to bin it.

0:31:470:31:50

Keep it for next year.

0:31:500:31:51

It's just when she rings me at night

time and says there's

0:31:510:31:54

a fight outside the door.

0:31:540:31:55

She's scared and I just say stay

in and lock the door.

0:31:550:31:58

I can't even say come

to my house because she

0:31:580:32:01

wouldn't dare go outside.

0:32:010:32:02

I have a good wage, I make a lot

of extra money that either

0:32:020:32:05

gets took off me in tax.

0:32:050:32:07

I also have then that increase

that the government takes

0:32:070:32:10

more off me in pension.

0:32:100:32:11

More off me in student loan.

0:32:110:32:13

And all my other bills leave me

with not very much money.

0:32:130:32:16

I do like to have a good life

and to do nice things

0:32:160:32:20

with my friends, to travel,

to go out for meals.

0:32:200:32:22

But I can't always keep up

with everyone because I

0:32:220:32:24

just can't afford it.

0:32:240:32:29

The business, it's quite

a few reasons, the corner

0:32:290:32:32

shops are going down

and down every year.

0:32:320:32:35

Everybody is asking

like cheaper, cheaper stuff,

0:32:350:32:37

do you sell cheap bread?

0:32:370:32:44

If somebody comes in,

do you sell any cheap cigarettes?

0:32:440:32:47

When are you moving, then?

0:32:470:32:48

So, I'm moving next Wednesday.

0:32:480:32:49

Have you sold the house?

0:32:490:32:50

I've nearly sold it, it's under

offer, but I'm just hoping,

0:32:500:32:53

because if it falls through then

I don't know what I'm going to do.

0:32:530:32:56

It's very hard to sell

the properties over here.

0:32:560:32:58

I've got the house over the road

and I put the lodgers in,

0:32:580:33:02

I haven't received the rent

since last four months.

0:33:020:33:04

That's terrible.

0:33:040:33:05

And I'm struggling now.

0:33:050:33:06

You can't afford it, can you?

0:33:060:33:07

No.

0:33:070:33:08

Four months I haven't

received anything yet.

0:33:080:33:10

I work seven days.

0:33:100:33:14

And about 13 to 14 hours a day.

0:33:140:33:20

And if you count the hours

over the week or month,

0:33:200:33:23

I don't have any break.

0:33:230:33:24

For years and years.

0:33:240:33:28

At the end of the day I don't

even get minimum wage.

0:33:280:33:33

How long can you work for 14

hours a day and all week?

0:33:330:33:37

I think nobody does.

0:33:370:33:39

You can't.

0:33:390:33:40

No.

0:33:400:33:42

And it's only me.

0:33:420:33:46

I'm constantly thinking about money,

I'm constantly doing

0:33:460:33:50

spreadsheets to work out how I'm

going to pay my bills.

0:33:500:33:52

I'm always on the phone

setting up payment plans,

0:33:520:33:54

asking for help with stuff.

0:33:540:33:56

And I'm quite a proud person,

and I don't like that.

0:33:560:34:05

The community has

gone down, hasn't it?

0:34:120:34:14

It's not the same any more.

0:34:140:34:15

I'm just hanging my coat up.

0:34:150:34:17

I would never let him out at all.

0:34:170:34:19

What happened the other week?

0:34:190:34:20

You said you got robbed?

0:34:200:34:25

Well, there was two bikes outside.

0:34:250:34:35

And the thieves must

have pushed the gate.

0:34:350:34:37

Right.

0:34:370:34:39

Does it feel safe

round here at night?

0:34:390:34:42

No.

0:34:420:34:52

When the food runs out,

I'll start crying and then

0:34:520:34:56

I'll ask my daughter,

hopefully she'll have something

0:34:560:34:58

for me, or my son.

0:34:580:35:02

My eldest son.

0:35:020:35:05

At the moment, struggling a lot.

0:35:050:35:11

With being on universal

credit, erm, and the way

0:35:110:35:14

they actually deal with you.

0:35:140:35:18

It's all over the phone

or online, job coaches.

0:35:180:35:26

Since 2008, I lost a lot

of my family through bereavement,

0:35:260:35:31

and that's what caused my

depression and anxiety.

0:35:310:35:36

And I've been on a downward spiral

ever since, basically.

0:35:360:35:45

I am struggling, to be fair.

0:35:470:35:49

Just love to work.

0:35:490:35:52

To...

0:35:520:35:55

Just to get a better life for him.

0:35:550:35:58

Erm...

0:35:580:36:01

You know, better schooling,

better whatever.

0:36:010:36:05

But at the moment with me, I can't

because I have to care for him.

0:36:050:36:08

I'm his carer - as well as his

parent, I'm his carer.

0:36:080:36:12

So, it's very difficult.

0:36:120:36:15

Just want a nicer life

for my son round here.

0:36:150:36:19

Well, not round here per se,

but somewhere nice.

0:36:190:36:21

Nic-ER.

0:36:210:36:26

Nicer environment, nicer area.

0:36:260:36:30

I never ask for help,

I never have done, never will.

0:36:300:36:34

But now I think it's coming to that

stage where I do need help.

0:36:340:36:37

So...

0:36:370:36:38

And I need to ask for it, really.

0:36:380:36:43

I worked all my life

since the age of 16.

0:36:510:36:53

Erm...

0:36:530:36:55

To not work now is...

0:36:550:36:59

Basically I feel it's

the end of my life now.

0:36:590:37:01

I feel like it's over.

0:37:010:37:06

A lot of the time I just want to lie

down, I prefer not to wake up

0:37:060:37:10

when I go to sleep on a night.

0:37:100:37:12

But I do.

0:37:120:37:13

And I'm a survivor

and I keep fighting.

0:37:130:37:15

And keep going.

0:37:150:37:17

But it's not nice, it's not.

0:37:170:37:21

I haven't got the motivation.

0:37:210:37:22

I want to go back to work.

0:37:220:37:26

I really do, because I

can't live like this.

0:37:260:37:31

I don't know how people have done it

for years, I really don't.

0:37:310:37:34

It's really bad.

0:37:340:37:41

Let's pick up some of those

concerns with Torsten Bell,

0:37:410:37:44

from the Resolution

Foundation, a think-tank.

0:37:440:37:52

And when you look at that kind of

struggle, weather it's a woman

0:37:520:37:56

talking about food running out or

someone saying they have never had

0:37:560:37:59

to ask for help but then again I

have to now. The shopkeeper talking

0:37:590:38:03

about those 14 hour days on less

than the minimum wage - is there

0:38:030:38:07

anything the Chancellor can start to

do tomorrow that addresses trouble

0:38:070:38:10

is on that scale?

Obviously, hearing

the stories brings to life some of

0:38:100:38:16

the statistics you see about the

cost of living crisis and how people

0:38:160:38:19

feel in Britain today. But the big

picture over quite some years is

0:38:190:38:25

that Britain's population as a

whole, not just the extreme end of

0:38:250:38:29

this, are in a serious living

standards squeeze the likes of which

0:38:290:38:32

none of us have seen in living

memory. And at the lower end of the

0:38:320:38:37

income distribution that is felt

very severely, people being squeezed

0:38:370:38:41

who already have very little income

and people being pushed into the

0:38:410:38:45

summer the situations we heard about

there. That is when some people say

0:38:450:38:49

this is an unprecedented period in

British history for people at the

0:38:490:38:52

heart end of that it is really

severe.

Because there's so much

0:38:520:38:57

emphasis on the house-building side

of things, on Theresa May wanting to

0:38:570:39:04

be remembered as the builder and yet

if you take many parts of the

0:39:040:39:07

country, not just Middlesbrough,

house prices declining there, there

0:39:070:39:12

is even marry oversupply there. The

problem of the lack of housing is

0:39:120:39:15

very much in the south of England?

We need to be careful about that.

0:39:150:39:21

What is technically true is that we

are focusing on what will raise

0:39:210:39:24

living standards in different parts

of the country. So in Birmingham

0:39:240:39:28

it's about unemployment and a labour

market disaster. In Sheffield it's

0:39:280:39:31

low pay. In London it is acutely

housing. But let's be clear, housing

0:39:310:39:36

is a problem right across the

country. If we look at how much of

0:39:360:39:40

our income as a population we are

spending on housing, it has troubled

0:39:400:39:43

over the last 50 years. Housing is a

problem everywhere, homeownership is

0:39:430:39:49

falling in the north-east, not as

fast as it is in parts of London but

0:39:490:39:53

it is falling. And housing costs

have risen very significantly, even

0:39:530:39:56

in the north-east as a whole.

What

about the whole idea of right to

0:39:560:40:01

buy, in that case?

On housing the

problem has been building at least

0:40:010:40:05

since the 19th 80s and it is a

disgrace that we haven't focused on

0:40:050:40:08

that. We put up with it because

house prices were rising and we put

0:40:080:40:16

up with it because homeownership was

still high and incomes were growing.

0:40:160:40:19

Now, we've got falling homeownership

and incomes being squeezed.

This is

0:40:190:40:22

where the government has pledged to

put their attention and their money

0:40:220:40:27

now. But the problem politically, if

you will allow, for the Chancellor

0:40:270:40:32

tomorrow, is how to pull in all

these young people that don't find

0:40:320:40:36

the Conservatives a very sexy brand

any more, if they did. And how does

0:40:360:40:42

he do that? It's not going to be

through rail cards, is it? It's not

0:40:420:40:47

going to be through...

The rail

cards are no use either politically

0:40:470:40:52

or substantively. They may be a nice

thing to have. The bigger picture

0:40:520:40:56

with young people today,

substantively, is not just that they

0:40:560:40:59

can't get a house, the problem is

that their wages ask wheat in a way

0:40:590:41:04

that we've not seen, they had a 9%

pay squeeze during the financial

0:41:040:41:09

crisis, more than any other age

group. We've seen the fastest rising

0:41:090:41:13

housing costs and is now getting

less for that. Addressing that is

0:41:130:41:17

what substantively the Chancellor

needs to do, and actually that will

0:41:170:41:20

matter politically. It will show

young people that he is focusing on

0:41:200:41:24

their concerns and secondly weather

you are young or not you know that

0:41:240:41:27

this intergenerational question is a

big question facing the country.

0:41:270:41:32

Grandparents and parents want these

problems are addressed for the sake

0:41:320:41:34

of the country not just for the sake

of the young people.

These are not

0:41:340:41:38

normal times. Is there anything

you're expecting the Chancellor to

0:41:380:41:42

do tomorrow? Will it be rolling back

Universal Credit, will it be

0:41:420:41:46

something dramatic, pushing that

whole idea away, which will...?

What

0:41:460:41:49

the Chancellor should do is get on

with building houses. He should

0:41:490:41:54

reverse the cuts to benefits which

are coming over the next few years

0:41:540:41:57

which will hit young people in their

30s just as they are entering the

0:41:570:42:02

expensive early childcare phase of

their lives. That might start

0:42:020:42:05

looking like we're focusing on real

problems.

Thank you very much for

0:42:050:42:08

coming in.

0:42:080:42:11

That's all we've got time for this

evening, but before we go,

0:42:110:42:14

seasoned Newsnight viewers will know

that some of the most effective

0:42:140:42:16

politicians are able to pivot,

seamlessly, from the topic you ask

0:42:160:42:19

them about to the topic

they really want to talk about.

0:42:190:42:22

Thatcher, Mandelson,

Clegg, they all did it.

0:42:220:42:23

But we think Australian MP

Bob Katter might have taken it a bit

0:42:230:42:27

far when asked about the country's

recent referendum on equal marriage.

0:42:270:42:29

Good night.

0:42:290:42:30

Final, final observation

on the same-sex marriage

0:42:300:42:33

debate from Bob Katter.

0:42:330:42:36

I mean, you know, people

are entitled to their sexual

0:42:360:42:42

proclivities, you know!

0:42:420:42:43

I mean, let there be

a thousand blossoms bloom,

0:42:430:42:45

as far as I'm concerned!

0:42:450:42:48

But I ain't spending any time on it,

because in the meantime,

0:42:480:42:51

every three months, a person is torn

to pieces by a crocodile

0:42:510:42:54

in North Queensland.

0:42:540:42:57

in North Queensland.

0:42:570:42:57

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Emily Maitlis.

The first interview with Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai since Robert Mugabe's resignation.

Plus what can be expected in tomorrow's Budget?


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