11/12/2017 Newsnight


11/12/2017

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You got through series one -

the divorce deal.

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Now get ready to enjoy

the full boxed set.

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The Brexit trade talks that'll be

preoccupying us through 2018.

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He asked about the trade deal,

about Ceta plus, plus, plus.

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We've always said that we're not

looking for a deal that's Norway

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and we're not looking

for a deal that's Ceta.

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If you're struggling with Ceta,

Efta, and Norway minus,

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fear not, we're on top of it.

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With both expert and political

views, we'll look ahead

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to where the talks will go,

and ask if the EU will give

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us a choice anyway.

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Also tonight, we visit

the Essex town of Tilbury.

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A port built on the back of trade -

what does it tell us

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about where we are now

and where Britain is heading?

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It does annoy me the fact that how

much wealth the port has actually

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brought into the country, how has

that wealth trickled down into the

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town?

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And is Britain suffering

an epidemic of loneliness?

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We'll hear how it feels

and ask how we might help.

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Hello.

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If you thought voting

for Brexit meant you'd hear

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no more about Europe,

look away now, because there

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is still lots to talk about.

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First, this morning,

we still didn't know

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whether we had really resolved

phase one of the talks -

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the divorce terms.

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It looked sorted on Friday,

then there were conflicting

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interpretations of what

we'd all signed up to.

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That storm has been been calmed.

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But then secondly, there

is what to expect from phase two,

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the trade part of the talks.

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We know Britain wants a deep

and special relationship

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with the EU, but quite what that

looks like we don't yet know.

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This afternoon, the Prime Minister

was in the Commons to show she can

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carve a path on phases one and two,

that will reconcile

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all competing views.

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Did she succeed?

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Nick Watt reports.

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It's that chilly time of year when

we are reminded of some eternal

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human truths, it's freezing out

there, but in that blanket of snow,

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you can see uniformity or on closer

inspection, the endless variety of

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nature. In the new world of

seemingly permanent protests, Tory

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MPs have been voicing widely

divergent views on Brexit, but

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today, they spoke almost as one.

May

I first of all, congratulate the

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Prime Minister on her triumph last

Friday...

Here, here.

Can I join my

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right honourable and learned friend

in congratulating my right

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honourable friend in driving through

an improved agreement on Friday

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against what many thought could not

have been feasible.

Today really was

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an illustration about old Harold

Wilson cliche that a week is a long

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time in politics. So how did Theresa

May go from humiliation in Brussels

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to widespread praise on her own

benches. Well, the vast majority of

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Tory MPs want to give her space

ahead of the EU summit in Brussels

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this week. I am also told that the

crucial change in mood came over the

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weekend when Downing Street offered

assurances to Euro-sceptics on one

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of their main concerns from last

week's deal with the EU - this was

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that the offer on Northern Ireland

could be used to smuggle the UK back

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into the single market. They were

told this was not possible for one

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very simple reason: If the UK

crashes out of the EU, with no deal

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at all, then the specific

commitments on the Irish border will

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no longary ply. -- no longer apply.

The text of this agreement now makes

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clear that in the event a deal

Northern Ireland will not be

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separated politically, economically

or by any regulatory requirements

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from the rest of the UK, along with

the aim of no hard border on the

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island of Ireland. In the event of

no deal, no overall deal, nothing is

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agreed.

In Dublin, there was weary

acceptance.

The reality is that at

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any point in this process, events

could very well intervened and

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could, you know, make the agreement

politically impossible to deliver

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on. I think that's the big risk with

all of this. You know, genuinely,

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all parties entered into an

agreement that is considered to be

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absolutely, you know, iron clad, but

in reality, political events in

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these uncertain times mean that

nothing is really cast iron. It

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can't be.

This week's mid-winter

chill shows no signs of letting up.

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But Theresa May is benefitting from

a thaw in relations within her own

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party, until the next Brexit

challenge arises.

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Nick is here.

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Nick, this point that she managed to

pacify this year on the part of the

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Brexiteers that Ireland was going to

put us into the single market by the

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back door, what argument did she

actually use?

There was this hiccup

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yesterday when David Davis said that

offer on the border with a statement

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of intent, he said that was much

more than a legally enforceable

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thing. Dublin took fright at that.

David Davis went on LBC today

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saying, yes, of course, I was saying

it's a statement of intent and

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that's much bigger than the law

because we're good friends. He said,

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of course it's elly enforceable. But

crucially legally enforceable within

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the withdrawal agreement, Article

50. What that means, we were saying

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last week, is that the offer of full

regulatory compliance with the UK

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with those elements related to the

Northern Ireland-Irish Republic

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border, that third element is

covered. Within Article 50 that is.

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If there's absolutely no deal, if we

crash out with no deal -

All bets

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are off.

Those arrangements do not

apply. At that point, are you down

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to a bilateral undertaking between

the UK and the Irish Republic.

We

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start again on that one. OK, that's

phase one. Storm over, everything's

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calm. That means we look forward to

phase two. The whole thing moves on

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now.

We have the European Council

this Thursday and Friday and we

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have, so far, the draft summit

conclusions. That looks forward in

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two areas: First on transition. The

Council suggests the UK says it

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wants to be for two years and the

whole body of EU law would apply for

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two years. The UK view is that it

should be an implementation period.

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Yes that body of law would apply

from the beginning but eventually

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you move away from it and the

beginnings of the hints of the

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restrictions that the UK will seek

to apply to the UK for the future

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trade arrangements because the UK

has decided to leave the customs

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union and the single market.

The

council is the big thing this week.

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Thanks a lot.

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Well, let's assume the big European

council meeting this week goes well,

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that we move on to phase

two of the talks.

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It can't be stressed enough

that this is the issue

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which will define 2018.

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So far, the British Government

has held its different

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factions together,

by them all adhering to the goal

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of building a deep and special

partnership - a bespoke deal

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specially for Britain.

Not hard, not soft.

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Something different.

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It was set out in the Florence

speech by Theresa May.

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Let us not seek merely

to adopt a model already

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enjoyed by other countries -

instead, let us be creative

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as well as practical,

in designing an ambitious

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economic partnership

that respects the freedoms and

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principles of the EU and the wishes

of the British people.

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Everyone in the UK Government

can sign up to that.

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But, if you listen carefully

to what the EU says,

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they think it's more binary.

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For our partners there,

the basic choice is you are either

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inside the EU single

market, like Norway.

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Or you are just a so-called

third country like Canada.

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You can have a trade deal,

like Canada, but that's a long

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way from where we are.

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Those two existing

models keep coming up -

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phrases from Michel Barnier,

on the single market,

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such as, "Either you're

in or you're out."

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Or, "Its integrity

is non-negotiable",

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have been making this point.

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Or this:

TRANSLATION:

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It will not be possible

to combine the benefits

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of the Norway model with the weak

constraints of the Canada model."

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Well, let's for a moment,

imagine the EU means that.

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What do these two options imply?

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You can think of them as two ends

of a spectrum in which you choose

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access to the EU market,

or automony to set your own

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rules and regulations.

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Norway has lots of access to the EU

market, but the condition

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for that is compliance with EU

rules, including free movement.

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And paying in to the EU budget.

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For these reasons, Brexiteers -

and our government -

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have ruled it out.

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It would mean paying the European

Union billions of pounds every year

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in perpetuity. It would mean

following EU rules with no say over

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them. It would mean no divergence

from EU rules in the future

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whatsoever. It would mean zero

control of immigration. I have to

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say to the right honourable

gentleman that wouldn't make a

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success of Brexit, that would be no

Brexit at all.

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So, if you don't like that,

what about Canada?

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Now here is the Canada deal

with the EU - CETA it is called.

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The EU Canada Comprehensive Economic

and Trade Agreement.

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So it has quite a bit of detail.

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If you look, for example, I take a

page 155, article 20. 12, this is

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about parties may make laws against

cam cording of movies in cinemas.

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That's the kind of detail it has.

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Because it has so much detail,

no-one thinks you can negotiate one

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like this in a year,

but you could kind of take

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this as the template,

tipex out the word 'Canada',

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and replace it with the word UK.

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The advantage is we'd

have more autonomy.

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This is the full-English

proper Brexit.

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But on access to the EU market,

it's not great for some

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of our key industries.

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And there is fact that you may

still need a physical border -

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and we've pledged not to have

one in Ireland.

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This Norway vs Canada choice is how

the EU want us to look at this -

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they say we simply have to decide.

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But is it just possible we can

get something better?

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That is what the government wants.

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Here's how David Davis described

the trade deal the government

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is after.

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An overarching free trade deal, but

including services, which Canada

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doesn't. With individual, specific

arrangements for aviation, for

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nuclear, for data, a series of

strands which we've worked out. Most

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of them based on where we start now.

If the basic deal, I'm being crude

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about this, is Canada plus the city

or something like that?

Canada plus,

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plus, plus. We want a bespoke

outcome. We will probably start with

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the best of can dark and the best of

Japan -- Canada and the best of the

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Japan and South Korea and then add

the services.

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He wants more trade

than the Canadians have got -

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but does he want to align with EU

rules to get it?

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And will the EU listen?

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Certainly they have offered

special deals to other

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countries when they want to.

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To Ukraine, for example.

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And to Liechtenstein.

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With me now are two

experts on all this.

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Charles Grant, director

of the Centre for European Reform.

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And Allie Renison, head

of Europe and Trade Policy

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at the Institute of Directors.

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Which sectors, British sectors, if

we went straight to the Canada deal,

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which British sectors would really

suffer from that?

I think when you

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look across the piece, the point

about Canada is that it's

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effectively starting from a very

different vantage point. The market

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access is nowhere near. They still

have tariffs. They're not

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eliminated. Agriculture would be

particularly hit. Financial services

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and services, professional services

sectors whereby you would have under

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the Canadian deal have a local

office in a European capital to

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access those markets.

In access

terms, I thought the goods makers,

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on the goods, I thought that was

mostly sorted out on that, it was

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just the services that were a hold.

The difference is if you are in the

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automotive sector you tend to rely

on your ability, the vehicle

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certificate agency can issue

approval for a car to be sold an

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marketed throughout the entirety of

the EU. They have an agreement on

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what we call conformity assessment.

You don't have that. That's the

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differentiator between Canada and

Norway, you're not automatically

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downloading EU rules.

But it's not

acknowledged that their things are

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compliant either. In terms of a

border, what's the system? I mean

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the Canadians have borders

presumably, it's just more or less

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like at the at the moment?

When

goods leave Canada and come into the

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EU, they have to go through the

customs controls on the edge of the

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customs union, yes.

So, it doesn't

help you at all on that. A lot of

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people are saying the Canada option

will allow us to remove the physical

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border in Ireland?

No, that's not

right at all. There is a border

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between Canada and the US, although

they're both in nafrta, have a Free

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Trade Agreement, they have a border.

That's the gist of the difference.

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Canada plus, plus, plus. What would

be the plus, plus, plus?

I think

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even though we're not talking about

completely replicated passporting

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for financial services, it is

something along those lines. Very

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off the anyone trade agreements

between different countries they

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don't tend to include anything

substantial on financial services.

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You don't tend to have agriculture

for example, included. In the Norway

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option the EEA doesn't really cover

agriculture. That's something that's

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going to be critical to the Irish

border. This is going to be

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different.

Charles, can we, do you

think they will offer us something

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in the middle? They keep saying it's

Norway or Canada.

They say it's

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Norway or Canada. The British will

probably ask for something that is

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neither. We would almost be in the

single market. We'd be aligned with

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EU rules. If we changed our rules

we'd allow us to punish us a bit.

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Barnier will say no to that. I think

we will get Canada plus, which means

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Canada as you describe, with

services added in, not single

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market, but some access in aviation,

financial services, data flows, well

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will have to -- we will have to pay

a price. That will be taking the

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rules from the EU, paying money into

the budget and taking something like

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the court of justice to tell us what

to do.

Do you agree with that?

When

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you look at what the Swiss model, is

I think there is some wriggle room.

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The Swiss aren't formal members of

the single market, but they have

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pretty good access in terms of

goods. What we're talking about to

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achieve that bespoke option is deep,

unprecedented cooperation between

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the UK and EU.

It is right to say

you can have your autonomy or your

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access, as far as you take a bit

more of one, but you lose another.

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We can have Canada plus if we pay a

price for it.

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Let's turned to the politicians.

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With me in the studio is the former

Tory MP, Peter Lilley,

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Conservative Brexiteer and a former

president of the Board of Trade.

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He knows his way around these

negotiations.

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And from Westminster,

Labour's Chuka Umunna,

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who is chair of the All Party

Parliamentary Group on EU Relations,

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and would really like us to remain

within both the single market

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and the Customs Union.

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Good evening to you both. Peter

Lilley, you would prefer Canada plus

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plus to Canada plus?

I would prefer

as few barriers as possible. It is

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in our interest, it is in Europe's

interest. I don't think we will get

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maximum, optimum, because the

European Union has made it clear

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they want us to appear at least to

be worse off than we are at present.

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I find it difficult because actually

are exporters have got a 15%

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advantage because of the exchange

rate. They will have to pay 4%

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tariff if there is no deal at all.

15% outweighs 4% for most.

You would

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prefer Canada to nothing, but you

would prefer Canada plus. But you

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don't think they will give it to us.

The British government position is

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they will give it to us.

Maybe they

know something I don't know. I

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merely listen to the European Union

and take the at their word. We

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should be prepared for the

probability that they want get

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nearly as much as they are seeking,

and that quite possibly will end up

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trading on WTO terms, which is a

good second best.

Chuka Umunna, how

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much of a disaster, do you think,

Canada would be? If we went

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something straight -- if you went

straight to something like Canada.

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How bad would that be from your

perspective?

I think it would be

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pretty disastrous. It may be

appropriate for a Canada, but we are

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the sixth biggest economy in the

world and they are our biggest

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trading partner. My preference would

be the Norway option. A fully to

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leave the European Union, which

means we are -- we stay in the

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single market of the least. I would

like to stay in the Customs Union as

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well. But the government has chosen

to do away with that, which is the

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best option. The problem with

Canada, first of all it took a long

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time to negotiate, up to seven

years. Secondly, it doesn't cover

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services really. That is 80% of our

economy. Thirdly, potentially you

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could have foreign investors and

large multinationals suing the

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British government if they felt we

were not opening up the public

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sector, the NHS in particular, to

further marketisation. And I don't

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think any that is particularly

attractive to the British people.

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It's just not appropriate. And us

having an FTA Canada style FTA...

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Sorry, free trade agreement. That

would preclude us from staying in

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the Customs Union. One of the parts

of the agreement that was reached on

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Friday was that we should have a

backstop position of being able to

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observe customs union and single

market rules as a solution to the

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Northern Irish border.

You said so

much. I want to let Peter Lilley

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respond.

Can I just knock on the

head of this idea that because the

0:18:500:18:56

Canadian agreement took eight years

to negotiate, it would take a long

0:18:560:19:00

time for us to negotiate something

similar. The Canadians had ten

0:19:000:19:05

different -- 10,000 different tariff

lines. The EU have 15,000. They have

0:19:050:19:10

to decide how rapidly they can be

traded off against each other. They

0:19:100:19:15

start off with 20,000 specifications

for goods and services. They had to

0:19:150:19:18

decide which to align. We start with

zero tariffs. We want to end up with

0:19:180:19:25

zero tariffs. Ten minutes. All we

have to negotiate is a diversion is

0:19:250:19:31

mechanism.

Chuka Umunna, do you

think there is any possibility of a

0:19:310:19:37

Norway option that would allow any

restriction are any kind of change

0:19:370:19:41

to the free movement rules? Because

that in many respects is seen as the

0:19:410:19:46

true red line of the British voters.

That is where your Norway option

0:19:460:19:50

forms. They won't give you Norway

but without free movement.

Let's not

0:19:500:19:58

forget free movement is a bit of a

misleading phrase. It suggests that

0:19:580:20:03

it's unconditional. Free movement is

conditional. There are things we can

0:20:030:20:07

do within the existing free movement

framework to better restrict

0:20:070:20:11

immigration. So, for example, the

Belgians require people to register

0:20:110:20:15

when they come to their country.

They have been there for more than

0:20:150:20:20

three months. We don't require

people to do that. We could require

0:20:200:20:23

people, if they have been here for

three months, haven't been able to

0:20:230:20:26

get work and don't have the prospect

of work, we can require them to

0:20:260:20:30

leave but we don't do that.

Lichtenstein, which as the Norway

0:20:300:20:34

option, as it were, it is part of

the European free trade Association,

0:20:340:20:38

they actually have called has

applied to the numbers of EU

0:20:380:20:41

immigrants they have come to their

country. You can restrict it, yes.

0:20:410:20:46

Charles Grant, do you think there is

a possibility, if we are confronted

0:20:460:20:51

with the stored -- stark choice,

that they would say, you can have a

0:20:510:20:55

Norway option but with a little bit

of concession on free movement?

One

0:20:550:21:00

can fiddle with the margins of these

details but the broad principle is

0:21:000:21:03

we would have to accept free

movement. EU believes these are

0:21:030:21:11

insoluble in length and you can't

have one without the other. That is

0:21:110:21:15

an ideology for them.

Peter Lilley,

for the last year the government has

0:21:150:21:22

hung the coalition of the

Conservative Party together with

0:21:220:21:24

this promise of a deep and special

partnership. One wonders if as you

0:21:240:21:28

suspect if it isn't going to be on

offer, is that going to be difficult

0:21:280:21:33

for the Conservative Party, or will

we just comfortably Sablon Canada or

0:21:330:21:39

WTO?

It is not about the

Conservative Party. It is about

0:21:390:21:43

Britain. It would be better for

Britain and Europe if we end up with

0:21:430:21:47

what the government are aiming for.

If we don't, it will be because the

0:21:470:21:51

EU don't want it. The way the

engineer that is by saying you can

0:21:510:21:55

have free trade but on conditions

you will be able to accept being

0:21:550:22:02

Sub-Organist to the European Court

of Justice or pay money. It would be

0:22:020:22:05

some, nation of those three. And the

British people voted against that.

0:22:050:22:10

So we would be going back. It would

be going back on Brexit.

We are

0:22:100:22:16

going to leave it there. I guess we

will return to it in the future.

0:22:160:22:20

Thank you all.

0:22:200:22:21

Because as 2017 draws to a close,

many pundits and commentators find

0:22:210:22:24

themselves reflecting on how -

yet again - they've been caught

0:22:240:22:29

out by more political

shocks and surprises.

0:22:290:22:33

Keeping up with shifting public

sentiments has not been easy.

0:22:330:22:37

But Jack Shenker, a journalist

and author, is currently working

0:22:370:22:41

on a book which attempts to map out

how the political terrain has

0:22:410:22:46

shifted so dramatically,

and he believes that part

0:22:460:22:49

of the problem is that analysts look

in the wrong places for answers.

0:22:490:22:52

He spent several months

in Tilbury in Essex,

0:22:520:22:54

which sits within one of the most

marginal parliamentary

0:22:540:22:56

seats in the country.

0:22:560:22:57

He thinks that if you understand

Tilbury, you probably

0:22:570:23:00

understand Britain.

0:23:000:23:01

So we asked him to make

a film about it, for us.

0:23:010:23:10

Come on.

It's much excitement of

seeing the pigeons home. -- come

0:23:100:23:22

home. Pigeons first. More football!

As my wife said, pigeons or football

0:23:220:23:29

first. The kids, grandchildren.

Anything else?

No! Charlie Lawrence

0:23:290:23:38

is always gone back to Tilbury, a

small dog town in Essex on the banks

0:23:380:23:43

of the River Thames, 20 miles east

of central London. He has lived here

0:23:430:23:46

in the same council house for 50

years.

I have lived in Tilbury my

0:23:460:23:51

life. I love Tilbury. I walk out of

here, go down this road, don't go

0:23:510:23:57

down that street and everybody would

be like, hello Charlie. A real

0:23:570:24:00

community.

Charlie knows Tilbury

better than anyone. He takes me on a

0:24:000:24:12

tour of the -- but the town he grew

up in is now almost unrecognisable.

0:24:120:24:17

That there is the fire station in

front of you.

And that has closed

0:24:170:24:23

down?

That has been shut a few

years. On the left as you go round

0:24:230:24:27

here, the blue and grey building,

that is the police station. That is

0:24:270:24:31

now shut. The railway pub used to

have good entertainment every night.

0:24:310:24:38

Now it is completely shut. Waiting

to be bombed out.

Most of the spaces

0:24:380:24:48

that once glued this community

together have disappeared. Today, a

0:24:480:24:54

private martial arts Academy is one

of the few places young people can

0:24:540:24:58

gather indoors. Although this too

could be earmarked for closure.

It's

0:24:580:25:03

the social life really. They are not

a lot of the pubs down. That was a

0:25:030:25:07

big part of Tilbury. I think that is

what caused everybody to be so

0:25:070:25:12

close-knit, being able to socialise

in your own town.

David Gold is

0:25:120:25:17

ranked 15th in the country for a

kick boxing. And he is intensely

0:25:170:25:22

proud of his hometown.

I was a Jack

the Lad, to be honest. I used to be

0:25:220:25:27

wheeling and dealing. Tilbury has

got quite a bad name for itself. In

0:25:270:25:33

terms of theft and crime and stuff

like that. But unless you are

0:25:330:25:36

actually from here, you don't know

this. It is all hearsay.

Tilbury has

0:25:360:25:44

a chequered reputation. In 1980, the

sun newspaper ran an inflammatory

0:25:440:25:50

spread headlined aggro Britain,

which describes the town has a

0:25:500:25:53

great, desolate place, where local

skinheads roam the dark land like

0:25:530:25:57

Kruppke rats. More recently, the

Economist magazine introduced

0:25:570:26:01

residents as a polyp of hard of

mostly white people with a deep and

0:26:010:26:08

justified sense of inferiority.

David feels his town has been

0:26:080:26:12

misrepresented and he is determined

to show a different face of Tilbury

0:26:120:26:15

to the world.

Next year I am hoping

to hit the top and take my team with

0:26:150:26:20

me and put this town on the map,

big-time.

0:26:200:26:26

But Tilbury was once on the map,

known far and wide as one of the

0:26:260:26:31

country's most important connection

points to the rest of the planet.

0:26:310:26:36

Some of Britain's greatest historic

milestones unfolded here, including

0:26:360:26:40

the landing of the Ampara Windrush.

Why have you come touring and?

To

0:26:400:26:46

seek a job. Any type so long as I

get good pay. -- why if you come to

0:26:460:26:53

England?

I first started reporting from

0:26:530:26:58

Tilbury in the autumn of 2016,

against a backdrop of President

0:26:580:27:03

Trump's election and the UK decision

to leave the EU. It was clear then

0:27:030:27:07

that the political landscape was

changing fast beneath our feet.

0:27:070:27:12

Tilbury, where the pro-Brexit vote

was among the highest in the

0:27:120:27:16

country, helped tell the story of

that transformation.

This is called

0:27:160:27:23

the gateway to the world, Tilbury?

So it is important, although it is a

0:27:230:27:28

little bit downtrodden. And it does

annoy me, the fact that how much

0:27:280:27:32

wealth the port has actually brought

into the country, how that wealth

0:27:320:27:38

has trickled down into the town.

This system of packing goods for a

0:27:380:27:42

shipment into boxes is hugely

efficient.

I think it started in the

0:27:420:27:48

60s. You had the electrification of

the railway line. Once the line was

0:27:480:27:54

electrified, you didn't need so many

workers. The port became

0:27:540:28:00

containerised. Therefore you didn't

need so many dock workers. That is

0:28:000:28:06

when it has been downhill ever

since. Probably the same sort of

0:28:060:28:11

feeling in mining villages.

And yet

Tilbury is not in northern mining

0:28:110:28:18

village. It's the backstage of the

capital and its port today is busier

0:28:180:28:22

than ever. On paper at least this

time should be a poster child for a

0:28:220:28:27

certain model of global frictionless

capitalism, sandwiched between the

0:28:270:28:32

docks and the largest Amazon

distribution centre in Europe. But

0:28:320:28:37

in the past wealth has passed

through Tilbury all too quickly,

0:28:370:28:42

leaving resentment in its wake.

I

was born in Nigeria. Before I ever

0:28:420:28:51

arrived in Tilbury, because I knew

about the Empire Windrush Landing

0:28:510:28:57

here, I feel like me being here, I

feel privileged to be honest with

0:28:570:29:02

you, to be a councillor in Tilbury.

She is fiercely positive about her

0:29:020:29:06

town. The Tilbury's two council

wards are some of the most deprived

0:29:060:29:12

in the region. She has faced white

nationalist opposition at every

0:29:120:29:16

election, even serving alongside the

BMP.

-- BMP. I think the BNP was the

0:29:160:29:24

party of division. I am here because

a majority of people in Tilbury

0:29:240:29:32

don't think that way.

Although the

BMP appears to have been seen off

0:29:320:29:39

here, more mainstream expressions of

the popular strike continued to win

0:29:390:29:42

support. Tilbury's Parliamentary

constituency of Thurrock remains

0:29:420:29:48

Ukip's top target seats nationwide.

And the appeal of radical

0:29:480:29:52

alternatives is not limited to one

end of the political spectrum. With

0:29:520:29:58

successive governments prioritising

markets over communities, voters

0:29:580:30:01

like Charlie have been searching for

something, anything different.

0:30:010:30:08

I would love him and Corbyn to run

this country. They are straight

0:30:080:30:12

down-the-line. There ain't no

telling lies with them. They tell it

0:30:120:30:16

how it is.

Charlie's concerns at how

Britain has changed economically are

0:30:160:30:23

written onto the landscape here. As

a young man, he helped build the

0:30:230:30:27

stacks of the old power station.

Recently, he watched them being torn

0:30:270:30:32

down.

Oh, look at that. Ah, look.

Look at that. Well, well, well.

0:30:320:30:43

Corr, look at that. Hardly any dust,

look. My good God. Mate, that's it,

0:30:430:30:50

end of an era.

I worked there for 16

years. Met lots and lots of friends.

0:30:500:30:57

Honestly, it was like one big

family. It wasn't like going to

0:30:570:31:00

work.

Charlie is now helping to

train agency workers to drive fork

0:31:000:31:05

lift trucks at the new Amazon plant

at the other side of town.

Amazon

0:31:050:31:09

won't be like a big family. It will

be people will be working, leaving,

0:31:090:31:14

working, leaving. I don't think

you'll ever get people that will be

0:31:140:31:17

working there for years, like we had

here. Not just Amazon. That's

0:31:170:31:21

everywhere. I don't really think

youngsters deserve what they're

0:31:210:31:25

getting now, you know. How can you

have security? One minute you've got

0:31:250:31:30

a job, the next minute, because it's

all through agencies, you're there

0:31:300:31:34

one minute, there another minute.

Your 6-2 one day. 2-10 the next day,

0:31:340:31:41

nights the next day. That's no good

for people.

For Dave, this sort of

0:31:410:31:49

precarious existence is a reality

which is already all too familiar.

0:31:490:31:53

Yeah, I went for a few jobs, yeah. I

couldn't find my comfort zone. They

0:31:530:31:59

weren't permanent. They were zero

hour contracts, because they just

0:31:590:32:04

drop you in as and when they need

you. There's no guarantee you're

0:32:040:32:08

going to get the work. Sometimes you

could be working three days out of

0:32:080:32:10

the week. Sometimes you might not

get work for a couple of weeks. I

0:32:100:32:14

wanted something with a bit of

meaning to it and actually have a

0:32:140:32:18

purpose of being there, you know?

As

well as working and training, Dave

0:32:180:32:23

has moved back into his childhood

home to care for his father, who has

0:32:230:32:29

parkin sons and is bed bound after a

fall.

It was hard to accept at

0:32:290:32:32

first. I mean, my dad's always been

fully independent. He's done all his

0:32:320:32:37

own stuff his whole life. He's never

really been one to ask for help or

0:32:370:32:41

anything like that. I sit and look

at him and see what he went from to

0:32:410:32:45

where he's gone to now and it's

really disheartening. It would have

0:32:450:32:49

been nice to have an actual solid

job, you know, whilst I had the

0:32:490:32:55

rough times with my family, having

the consistency, money constantly

0:32:550:32:59

coming in and being able to take

compassionate leave and stuff like

0:32:590:33:02

that, it would have been nice. But

I've dealt with it. I mean, I just

0:33:020:33:09

take life as it throws it at me, you

know.

With the arrival of Amazon,

0:33:090:33:17

Tilbury is clearly on the cusp of

another economic leap forward. The

0:33:170:33:21

question is whether the work on

offer is here to stay. Up to 15

0:33:210:33:27

million jobs in Britain are

vulnerable to automation over the

0:33:270:33:30

next two decades. Charlie's

generation has already lived through

0:33:300:33:35

one great era of mechanisation,

which transformed the town

0:33:350:33:40

completely. As another dawns,

optimism here is tinged with fear

0:33:400:33:45

that without a concerted effort to

ensure its fruits are shared, life

0:33:450:33:49

may only become more insecure. A

certain vision of liberal modernity

0:33:490:33:58

have transformed our political

landscape in the process. Here,

0:33:580:34:01

where the contradictions of that

vision have been exposed most

0:34:010:34:05

starkly, it's obvious that the old

world is not coming back. What's

0:34:050:34:08

less clear is in whose interests the

new one is being built. Tilbury was

0:34:080:34:13

once dismissed as a relic of the

past. In reality, it's a window onto

0:34:130:34:19

the future, one that will affect us

all.

0:34:190:34:27

We end up talking a lot

about Brexit and the economy,

0:34:290:34:32

as we've just demonstrated.

0:34:320:34:33

Arguably, we should

spend more time talking

0:34:330:34:34

about things that really

matter - like loneliness.

0:34:340:34:36

The Labour MP, Rachel Reeves,

co-chairwoman of the Jo Cox

0:34:360:34:39

Loneliness Commission,

has raised the issue, arguing that

0:34:390:34:41

"in the last few decades,

it has escalated from personal

0:34:410:34:48

misfortune into a social epidemic".

0:34:480:34:51

Something like half a million older

people go at least five or six days

0:34:510:34:54

a week without seeing or speaking

to anyone at all.

0:34:540:34:57

Here's a brief clip of a video

made by the Campaign to

0:34:570:35:00

End Loneliness, in which they

asked a younger person

0:35:000:35:10

Now, we might think it's

not the sort of thing

0:35:100:35:12

the government can do much about,

but let us to talk to two people

0:35:120:35:16

with different experiences

of isolation or loneliness.

0:35:160:35:17

I am joined by Sue Symth,

who experienced loneliness

0:35:170:35:20

following the death of her husband.

0:35:200:35:21

And Becca Maberly, who started

A Mother Place, a community

0:35:210:35:23

which helps mothers

like her prepare and cope

0:35:230:35:25

with feelings of loneliness.

0:35:250:35:26

Very good evening to you both. So

Sue, your husband's death goes back

0:35:260:35:29

a very long way. Take us through

your experience.

My husband died 27

0:35:290:35:32

years ago. So it's been a long

journey, yes. I didn't really know

0:35:320:35:34

anything about depression until

then.

You link the depression and

0:35:340:35:38

the loneliness, the two are -

Yeah,

I think it's a combined thing.

0:35:380:35:43

Isolation, loneliness and depression

is a threesome.

You've had, you

0:35:430:35:48

would say you've experienced that

pretty well all the way since you

0:35:480:35:50

lost your husband? Yes, yes. It's

been a difficult journey, lots of

0:35:500:35:54

things, yeah.

You were working?

Yes, up to three

0:35:540:35:57

years ago, yeah. I lived in the

States for a few years after my

0:35:570:36:02

husband's death because I had a law

suit going against him. Against his

0:36:020:36:06

death. I had to stay in the country.

So you came back here. You were

0:36:060:36:11

working

Oh, yeah.

And now you're

not.

No.

And how do you fill your

0:36:110:36:18

day?

Well, at the moment, it's

getting better because I'm starting

0:36:180:36:25

to get more mobile. A couple of

years I was house bound with

0:36:250:36:28

illnesses. And different things, I

was waiting for a big operation,

0:36:280:36:34

fighting with the hospitals to get

that sorted out and everything. My

0:36:340:36:38

health went down. I have a history

of leg ulcers and things. Spiralled,

0:36:380:36:43

I was house bound for 18 months, two

years. That's when the isolation and

0:36:430:36:48

loneliness and depression starts.

Your experience is very different,

0:36:480:36:54

when you had young children.

Yes,

mine was a temporary experience.

0:36:540:36:59

Mine was the result of becoming a

new mother and perhaps having

0:36:590:37:03

unrealistic expectations about what

it's like to go from having a busy

0:37:030:37:08

professional life, a social life, to

suddenly being at home all day,

0:37:080:37:11

every day.

Your life has meaning and

it has a kind of focus.

Yes, it

0:37:110:37:15

does. But when the focus is a really

cute baby that doesn't do much apart

0:37:150:37:22

from dribble and to, it doesn't give

a lot back. It's -- and poo.

And

0:37:220:37:33

you've set up this group, you're

speaking to people.

It's an online

0:37:330:37:38

community which is helping to

support and educate women who are -

0:37:380:37:43

and fathers - who are starting with

parenthood and just being honest and

0:37:430:37:50

saying, you know, it's not like the

picture post card. It's not as

0:37:500:37:55

romantic as it might look.

Be

prepared for what you're about to

0:37:550:37:58

get into, because you'll be...

Yeah

it's about realistic expectations.

0:37:580:38:02

One thinks of it as a busy time,

you're not out and about meeting

0:38:020:38:06

other mothers in the park?

Yeah,

definitely. But you can't be out and

0:38:060:38:10

about Monday to Friday, 6am when the

baby wakes until, you know, your

0:38:100:38:15

partner gets home on a Friday night

at 8pm. So you can't schedule

0:38:150:38:20

something every minute of every day.

The daily drudgery associated with

0:38:200:38:27

just being at home with a baby on

your own, without - Sue and I were

0:38:270:38:32

talking about, the lack of mental

stimulation. If you're used to

0:38:320:38:36

having adult company.

You were

saying how much you noticed the

0:38:360:38:39

noises in your house?

Yes. When

you're on your own you do. When

0:38:390:38:43

you've got a family or kids or a

dog, when you're on your own

0:38:430:38:47

completely, a house makes its own

noises. You pick it up when you're

0:38:470:38:51

on your own. You do. You worry about

things. You take things on board

0:38:510:38:55

more.

What's Christmas for you this

year?

I'm going to a church that

0:38:550:39:00

I've been to for about three years

that does a lunch. Then I'm hoping

0:39:000:39:04

to go to some very good friends for

tea, afterwards. They've got two

0:39:040:39:09

lovely little girls. They make me

feel very much a part of their

0:39:090:39:12

family, which is lovely.

Good. Is

this getting worse? Because

0:39:120:39:18

obviously we have busy lives. We

have perhaps socially disconnected

0:39:180:39:21

lives. Maybe we don't know the

neighbours as well as we used. To I

0:39:210:39:25

don't know.

We're not living in the

same family units that we used to.

0:39:250:39:28

People don't live so close to their

families any more. You've got lots

0:39:280:39:33

of couples living in a small flat,

within a building, on a busy street.

0:39:330:39:38

They don't know their neighbours.

Also so many working mums who

0:39:380:39:43

perhaps, I don't want to say they're

too proud to ask for help, but it's

0:39:430:39:47

not in their nature to.

There's a

bit of a stigma, one might feel.

0:39:470:39:51

Yeah.

I wonder whether technology

helps. Because you have a

0:39:510:39:56

smartphone, I think, don't you?

I

do, yeah.

You've got a Gmail

0:39:560:39:59

account.

I do.

You're laughing

though.

Doesn't get used very much.

0:39:590:40:06

But I do have the account.

Is that a

way of connecting people more?

I

0:40:060:40:13

still think we should reach out to

each other more. I really do. I

0:40:130:40:17

really do. I think technology is

great in one way, but it's the human

0:40:170:40:21

touch. I feel with the isolation and

loneliness and depression, you've

0:40:210:40:26

got to reach out to people, in the

local community. If somebody you

0:40:260:40:31

know of is perhaps isolated or on

their own or people -

Go and visit.

0:40:310:40:37

People don't do that, perhaps people

are frightened if they don't do it,

0:40:370:40:41

they'll get involved or something.

It's something we've got to do hands

0:40:410:40:44

on. I think technology is wonderful,

but it's not the answer. It's not

0:40:440:40:50

the same as reaching out one to one.

Good luck both of you with it and we

0:40:500:40:56

need to leave it there. Thanks very

much indeed for coming in.

0:40:560:40:59

That's almost all from us.

0:40:590:41:01

Emily is here tomorrow.

0:41:010:41:03

But before we go, in case you hadn't

noticed, there's been a bit of snow

0:41:030:41:07

falling around the country recently,

bringing with it the usual mix

0:41:070:41:10

of delighted children

and grumpy commuters.

0:41:100:41:11

It may have created childcare

headaches and nightmare journeys -

0:41:110:41:13

but it doesn't half make

the country look pretty.

0:41:130:41:16

Goodnight.

0:41:160:41:18

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