08/12/2017 Newsnight


08/12/2017

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Getting to this point has required

give and take on both sides.

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The deal we've struck will guarantee

the rights of more than 3 million EU

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citizens living in the UK

and of a million UK

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citizens living in the EU.

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After some tough conversations,

we've now agreed a settlement that

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is fair to the British taxpayer.

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It means that in future we'll

be able to invest more

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in our priorities at home.

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In Northern Ireland,

we will guarantee there will be no

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hard border and we will uphold

the Belfast Agreement.

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And in doing so, we will continue

to observe the constitutional

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and economic integrity

of the United Kingdom.

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Theresa pulls it off!

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In the early hours of this morning,

the Prime Minister made a dash

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to Brussels and sealed a deal

on phase one.

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But was there a lot

more give than take?

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And has she just parked

the Northern Ireland problem

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in the long-stay car park?

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We ask one keen Brexiteer.

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We've opened up the negotiations

to talk about that future

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partnership deal, and the win-win

of that deal on trade and security

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cooperation and all those other

things is within sight.

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So I think it vindicates

the Prime Minister's approach.

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And another...

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I listened to Michael Gove and Boris

Johnson today, and thought,

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were we on the same side?!

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I simply couldn't believe it.

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I will say this to you -

I think within the next 48 hours,

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you will hear a lot more

Conservative voices who perhaps kept

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quiet this morning saying,

actually, they're not happy

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with what's happened today.

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But does the hard work start here?

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The battle lines have been drawn

for phase two, then.

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The EU's demand for a level playing

field, and the trend

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towards a softer Brexit anyway,

will leave many Brexiteers asking,

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what was the point of this?

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We'll be discussing with our panel

whether this is all just,

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as David Davis says,

"constructive ambiguity",

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and does it bode ill or well

for thrashing out a trade deal?

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Good evening.

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If the Government wanted to inject

some drama and excitement

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into the Brexit story,

which some might argue

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was badly needed, then

they certainly managed it -

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with Theresa May making a pre-dawn

flight from RAF Northolt

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across the Channel this morning

with the latest version

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of the UK's position.

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It would only have been

bettered if she'd actually

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piloted the plane herself.

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But as to the actual substance?

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A deal on EU citizens' rights,

a divorce settlement

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of 35-40 billion euros,

a date for the end

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of the jurisdiction

of the European Court of Justice,

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and a bit of finagling

over Northern Ireland -

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but the actual promise

there would not be a hard

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border between Northern

Ireland and the Republic.

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Enough to get phase one

of the negotiations over the line,

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and, assuming it gets the nod

from the European Council next week,

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to start talks about a trade

agreement, rested and refreshed.

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Here's our Political

Editor, Nick Watt.

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MUSIC.

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When everyone else is having fun,

breaking up can be so hard,

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as Theresa May discovered at an EU

summit last year.

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Or maybe we do have

friends after all?

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At the end of a week of heartache,

Theresa May finally pulled off

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a deal with the EU on stage one

of the Brexit negotiations.

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Sufficient progress has now been

made on the three terms

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of the divorce.

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I very much welcome the prospect

of moving ahead to the

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next phase, to talk about trade

and security, and to discuss the

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positive and ambitious

future relationship.

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But after Monday's humiliation,

how did it happen?

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Shortly after 11pm in Downing Street

last night, Theresa May finally

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achieved a breakthrough when she

sort of won over the DUP in a

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telephone call with Arlene Foster.

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At around midnight, she left

Downing Street, skipping the office

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Christmas party, to catch two hours

sleep at her constituency

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home in Maidenhead.

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Then, at 3:45am, she was picked up

for an RAF flight to

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Brussels.

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The deal covered the three

main separation areas.

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Theresa May has resisted pressure

to keep Northern Ireland in the EU's

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Single Market and Customs Union.

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But the EU has secured

an alignment of roles in

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areas related to cross-border

cooperation in the event of no deal.

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The UK cut an initial EU demand

for a Brexit payment of up to £65

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billion by around a half.

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But the UK will still pay

between 36 and £39 million.

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European Court of Justice

will have a limited role, overseeing

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the rights of EU citizens the UK

for eight years rather than 15.

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But EU citizens lawfully

resident in the UK

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on Brexit day will have

the rights guaranteed.

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We've heard a lot about the Tory

civil war and Europe.

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Well, today, the tribe

appeared to embrace

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the spirit of Christmas goodwill.

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This agreement is a significant

political achievement

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for the Prime Minister.

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Theresa May has absolutely

put her mark on this.

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She has stood up and she has not

been found to be wanting.

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Others weren't quite

buying into the accord.

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I listened to Michael

Gove and Boris Johnson

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today and thought,

are we on the same side?!

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I simply couldn't believe it.

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I will say this to you,

I think within the next 48 hours we

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will hear a lot more

Conservative voices

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who perhaps kept quiet

this

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morning saying, actually,

they're not happy with

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what's happened today.

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At the heart of this deal lies

a Cabinet truce on Brexit.

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The Leave side are so concerned to

preserve the actual goal of leaving

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that they are willing to give

ground on the details.

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The Remain side have accepted

the UK is leaving, but

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they've been pushing

for a gentle Brexit.

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The Prime Minister's challenge

is to preserve that truce

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going into the next

round of negotiations.

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One minister who supported

Remain hopes the UK will

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hug the EU close.

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This talk of ongoing

alignment, I think there

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will be some key strategic sectors,

looking at the financial services -

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it applies to professional services,

biotech, life sciences, a number of

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sectors like that were actually

a fragmentation of the European

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offering in global terms

would be bad news not just

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for us, but the EU 27.

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I think in those sort

of areas I suspect that

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in the years to come

we will want to mirror

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many of the regulations

and directives that

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come out of Europe.

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But, the overwhelming bits

of the economy, both in goods

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and services, I think we may well

want to move ahead positively with

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free trade deals as

quickly as possible.

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Labour believes this has been a less

than glorious week for

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the Government.

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Look, Theresa May should have hit

the first deadline in October.

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She failed.

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She looks as if she's

going to hit this deadline.

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That is progress, it

would be churlish of me not

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to recognise it as progress.

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But what we can't have

going forward is the absolutely

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chaotic scenes that

we've seen this week.

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But in Whitehall, they

are likening the deal

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to Churchill and El Alamein.

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The word is, it is the end

of the beginning.

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Nick's with me now.

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Nick, what's the mood

in Downing Street tonight?

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It is absolute delight. I think it

is stunned relief. We have done it

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and this Prime Minister has at last

achieved success. When the Prime

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Minister left for Brussels, she did

not know how this was going to go

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down politically with her back

benches and with the DUP. Arlene

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Foster had not wholly signed up to

this. But talking to the Brexiteers

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who have been critical of this deal,

they said this evening they are not

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planning to rock the boat. But they

do have what is described as,

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residual anxieties in two areas.

One, these very limited

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circumstances the Supreme Court will

refer to the European Court of

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Justice over citizens and this

regulatory alignment is related to

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Northern Ireland.

Whatever that

proves to be. What happens now?

Adam

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Fleming in Brussels has got a leak

of the draft conclusions for the

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European Council meeting in Brussels

on Thursday and Friday. Good news

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and bad news. The good news is the

European Council is suggesting yes

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to a transition deal for two years.

The bad news is the entire body of

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EU law would apply to the UK in that

period and any new laws and

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regulations introduced in that

period would apply to the UK, which

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would have no votes. That crosses

one Boris Johnson's red lines, which

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might explain why the Chief Whip

sent out a photo of him two-day

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meeting the Prime Minister in the

early hours because the Prime

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Minister will have a cabinet meeting

and discussion on the future.

Thank

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you very much indeed.

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Well, Government ministers today

were so pleased with the outcome,

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and the lack of incoming -

so far - from the right

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of the party, it was

as if Christmas had come early.

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Certainly the Justice Minister,

Dominic Raab, was in a chipper

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mood when I spoke to him

earlier at Westminister.

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I asked him whether today's deal

was proof the Government had

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caved to EU demands.

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We are a third of the way

through a two-year negotiation

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period, and today was a really

important step forward -

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on EU nationals and their rights

here in the UK, expats.

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We've opened the door to trade

talks, very important

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for business confidence.

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We've narrowed the bones

of contention, but not

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settled all the issues

on Northern Ireland and money.

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So, yes, there is...

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You haven't settled any

of the issues on Northern Ireland

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except there will be no hard border.

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Well, a very important

issue to settle.

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But you're right.

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There's going to be

some hard yards left.

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It's going to go

down to brass tacks.

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But we're only a third of the way

through the negotiations.

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And as a result of taking this step,

we've opened up the negotiations

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to talk about that future

partnership deal and the win-win

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of that deal on trade and security

cooperation and all of those other

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things is within sight.

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So I think it indicates

the Prime Minister's approach.

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Full alignment is essentially part

of the Single Market,

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beside the Single Market,

beside the Customs Union on these

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issues - agriculture,

education, transport,

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environment, waterways,

Social Security, tourism,

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inland fisheries, health,

urban and rural development...

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You have no power on

these going forward.

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You will be takers, not rule-makers.

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The EU will keep you in-line

in all these things.

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Kirsty, Kirsty, you can't

have it both ways.

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You can't say we've done nothing

on Northern Ireland and then say

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we've given all the game away.

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The reality is, what we've said

today on alignment is the default

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position if none of the options

are agreed but we still want

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and have a package within sight

is that we would have alignment.

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And what alignment means

is on the principles,

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the goals, the policy goals...

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For example, if it was on a certain

area like, I don't know,

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agricultural standards,

but you retain the regulatory means

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to delivering them at home.

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Let's just take agriculture.

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And there will be a European law

on the movement of animals that

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you will have to adhere

to if there is full alignment.

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Indeed, if there are new laws

designed by the 27 on the movement

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of animals, you will have to adhere

to them on full alignment.

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No, you're wrong on both counts.

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This is the default position

on those areas of North-South

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cooperation in the context

of Northern Ireland if nothing

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else can be agreed.

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But we want to proceed

with the whole package.

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The detail, the options

are still to be chosen.

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This is all still a matter

for negotiations.

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You can call it strategic

ambiguity, you can call it

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constructive ambiguity...

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You can call it that.

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That's very interesting, you're

calling it strategic ambiguity?!

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No, what I'm admitting to you,

very openly and honestly,

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is that we've agreed principles

but the details still need to be

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ironed out on this very bespoke set

of issues around Northern Ireland,

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which can't be dealt with properly

and responsibly outside

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of the context of the broader

negotiation on customs and trade

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and all those other things

which we've said all along.

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If you don't get an acceptable deal

on Northern Ireland, full alignment

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could continue forever.

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Well, Kirsty, ifs and buts

and pots and pans.

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What I can tell you now is that

we've got what we wanted,

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which was to move forward to talk

about trade talks.

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We've settled the issue of EU

nationals and UK nationals, and,

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you know, we can open up to those

trade talks which we said should

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have happened at the beginning.

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Nicola Sturgeon said in a tweet

today that the UK Government

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promising that there will be no hard

border in Northern Ireland means

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that the Government can never again

say that an independent Scotland

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will mean a hard border.

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She's right, isn't she?

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No, she's not, but I would of course

expect the SNP to view

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anything within the prism

of their obsession

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with independents.

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with independence.

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I'm sure that's not the way

the Scottish people think of it.

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One last try on full alignment.

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Go for it.

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You're in the transition period,

you don't have a deal

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on Northern Ireland,

and the EU proposes a new law

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on agriculture you don't like.

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You have to adhere to

the principle of it?

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No, we don't.

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I'm sorry, that is not

what we've agreed today.

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What we've agreed, as a default

position, I'll go over

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it again if you like,

is that if nothing else is agreed

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and we're confident that we can,

then actually what we would have

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is some form of alignment which

means that we agree the policy...

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Full alignment is not

some form of alignment!

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The alignment is in relation

to the goals you retain

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the regulatory means of achieving.

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We're now entering phase two.

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And in phase two, the draft EU

Council guidelines say that in phase

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two what will be decided is that

during the transition

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period there will be four

freedoms guaranteed,

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and Britain will still be

in the Single Market

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and the Customs Union.

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Theresa May on the 9th of October

said that in March 2019

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when we enter transition,

the four freedoms will end,

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and we will not be in

the Single Market and we will not be

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in the Customs Union.

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These are diametrically

opposed statements.

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That is the EU's negotiation

position for phase two.

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Well, that's going

to be a very big row.

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It is, but we've always said,

let's get on and talk

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about trade and the transition.

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We can't talk about the transition

until we're in those trade talks.

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And I'm delighted that the EU

is now restless to get

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on and talk about that too.

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But of course, as you've just

pointed out, there's

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going to be some creases that

will need ironing out.

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We're only a third of the way

through these negotiations.

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But it's a major...

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At least recognise...

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Come on, Kirsty!

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But it's a major, major crease.

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Against all the pessimism, we made

a really important step forward.

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It's a major crease.

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Go on, give us that!

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Theresa May did not say on the 9th

of October, "On March 2019,

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I kind of hope that I'll be

in a position when I enter

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the transition that actually I might

be able to end the four freedoms

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and I might be able to get

the Single Market and I might be

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able to get the Customs Union".

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She said on the 9th of October,

these things will happen.

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These are not entirely in her gift.

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So, first of all, you started

by saying that EU communication

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was what we've agreed

for the transition -

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it isn't, it's the position.

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it isn't, it's their position.

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But you're absolutely right,

it's not entirely within our gift

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what we negotiate in phase two.

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We're not there yet.

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I wouldn't want to get the

tambourine out quite yet, Kirsty.

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But we're a third of the way

through the negotiations,

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and today was a step forward

and an indication of the approach

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that the PM has taken.

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"Nothing is agreed until

everything is agreed".

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The phrase at the top of the joint

EU-UK document today that

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if phase two founders -

if no trade deal can be struck -

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then potentially what's been decided

today could be dumped in the bin.

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So, the stakes are very high.

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As Dominic Raab said, he hasn't got

the tambourine out yet.

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Our Diplomatic Editor,

Mark Urban, guides us

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through the next round of chess.

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There can be no turning back.

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Britain is leaving

the European Union.

0:16:220:16:24

From the outset, the EU wanted

to direct this movie.

0:16:240:16:27

Its script, one of phased

negotiations starting

0:16:270:16:31

with the three separation issues -

citizens' rights, budget liabilities

0:16:310:16:34

and the Irish border.

0:16:340:16:37

There never really was any chance

of the UK picking off member

0:16:370:16:40

states on these questions.

0:16:400:16:43

Their position was solid.

0:16:430:16:46

It has been interesting how

effective the EU has been in keeping

0:16:460:16:50

the 27 together on the three major

issues of the first phase.

0:16:500:16:57

And they had a clear idea

of what they needed the UK to do

0:16:570:17:01

in that first phase.

0:17:010:17:04

And actually, step-by-step,

the UK has fallen in line

0:17:040:17:07

with that approach.

0:17:070:17:12

Among the 27, the narrative played

to us again and again was that

0:17:120:17:16

Theresa May was negotiating first

and foremost with her own Cabinet.

0:17:160:17:21

But for veterans of

the European Commission,

0:17:210:17:25

every big negotiation involves both

sides arguing among themselves.

0:17:250:17:28

It's not strange if you look

at the bigger picture

0:17:280:17:34

of the trade negotiations.

0:17:340:17:36

I mean, the European Union

is losing time, but also our

0:17:360:17:39

counterparts are losing time.

0:17:390:17:40

For example, the reason that TTIP

stalled was because the American

0:17:400:17:43

side could not come

to a common position.

0:17:430:17:45

So that's not so extraordinary.

0:17:450:17:48

Number Ten had hoped

today's milestone would be

0:17:480:17:51

reached back in October,

after Theresa May's

0:17:510:17:52

offer in Florence.

0:17:520:17:55

But the EU held firm.

0:17:550:17:58

Downing Street blamed

October's failure on French

0:17:580:18:00

and German intransigence.

0:18:000:18:04

But it may have helped

educate the Brexit

0:18:040:18:07

hardliners in the Cabinet.

0:18:070:18:10

And in the aftermath of that

setback, Theresa May

0:18:100:18:18

leveraged her weakness,

leading Europeans have

0:18:180:18:22

told me, telling them -

"if you don't give me something

0:18:220:18:25

here, you're going to end up talking

to Boris Johnson".

0:18:250:18:27

The Prime Minister has always

known that the leverage

0:18:270:18:29

would be distinctly limited,

and talks might take the form

0:18:290:18:32

of a fighting withdrawal.

0:18:320:18:33

How do we know?

0:18:330:18:34

Because she said it before

she became Prime Minister.

0:18:340:18:38

In a stand-off between Britain

and the EU, 44% of our exports

0:18:380:18:42

is more important to us than 8%

of the EU's exports is to them.

0:18:420:18:49

The reality is that we do not know

on what terms we would have access

0:18:490:18:52

to the Single Market.

0:18:520:18:56

We do know that in a negotiation,

we would need to make concessions

0:18:560:18:59

in order to access it.

0:18:590:19:03

And the UK has indeed been

making many concessions.

0:19:030:19:06

Among them, agreeing to the EU's

negotiating that it will pay

0:19:060:19:11

substantial budget liabilities,

and accepting it cannot start

0:19:110:19:13

negotiating its own trade

agreements any time soon.

0:19:130:19:23

But on citizens' rights

and even the budget issue,

0:19:230:19:28

the EU has given ground also.

0:19:280:19:30

So, what about the phase two

negotiation, setting out the broad

0:19:300:19:33

framework for trade,

security and so much else?

0:19:330:19:37

The EU suggests that must be

a choice between Single Market

0:19:370:19:39

membership like Norway,

or a trade deal like

0:19:390:19:46

the one done by Canada.

0:19:460:19:47

Theresa May, it's clear,

wants something much closer

0:19:470:19:49

than that Canadian deal.

0:19:490:19:51

Compared with what exists

between Britain and the EU today,

0:19:510:19:56

it would nevertheless represent such

a restriction on our mutual market

0:19:560:20:00

access that it would benefit

neither of our economies.

0:20:000:20:04

Not only that, it would start

from the false premise

0:20:040:20:07

that there is no pre-existing

regulatory relationship between us,

0:20:070:20:11

and precedent suggests that it

could take years to negotiate.

0:20:110:20:14

We can do so much better than this.

0:20:140:20:19

And that expression

of Prime Ministerial aspiration,

0:20:190:20:24

coupled with the concept

of regulatory alignment to deal

0:20:240:20:26

with the Irish border,

tell us a great deal.

0:20:260:20:29

It suggests changing as little

as possible, a softer Brexit.

0:20:290:20:35

If it was a forerunner of a decision

that the whole of the UK would stay

0:20:350:20:40

in regulatory alignment with the EU,

in other words, in the Single

0:20:400:20:49

in the Single Market,

in the Customs Union,

0:20:490:20:51

or very close to them,

0:20:510:20:52

then that's a very significant

policy statement, and one

0:20:520:20:55

that we haven't had before.

0:20:550:20:56

And of course, it would make a lot

of other things easier.

0:20:560:20:59

As for the EU side, it seems to have

glimpsed the direction of travel

0:20:590:21:02

and is already signalling

they are closely aligned.

0:21:020:21:09

The UK must abandon the vision

of some Brexiteers for a

0:21:090:21:11

Singapore-style deregulated economy.

0:21:110:21:12

The battle lines have been drawn

for phase two, then.

0:21:120:21:15

The EU's demand for a level playing

field, and the trend

0:21:150:21:18

towards a softer Brexit anyway,

will leave many Brexiteers asking,

0:21:180:21:25

what was the point of this?

0:21:250:21:28

Critically, the UK will have

to carve out some sort of exemptions

0:21:280:21:33

to allow them to restrict freedom

of movement and sufficient latitude

0:21:330:21:36

to create their own trade deals.

0:21:360:21:44

If you look at the mandate

for the second round negotiating

0:21:440:21:52

of our trade deal, there is a clause

in it on the level playing fields,

0:21:520:21:56

and that's the first

time ever that this

0:21:560:21:59

is in a negotiating mandate.

0:21:590:22:01

What it means is that they say,

look, you can have the trading deal

0:22:010:22:06

with Europe provided that

you are not dumping,

0:22:060:22:08

that you live up to

the competition rules, etc, etc.

0:22:080:22:12

The level playing field

for the first time has been defined.

0:22:120:22:19

That will demonstrate to be a very

hard one for Great Britain.

0:22:190:22:22

The clock starts now on a phase

two negotiation that

0:22:220:22:25

will test both sides.

0:22:250:22:28

It's clear now that the UK

will align closely with the EU,

0:22:280:22:31

and that could make it far harder

for the Brexit the vision

0:22:310:22:36

of a freewheeling trading

superpower to be fulfilled.

0:22:360:22:46

-- for the Brexiteer vision.

0:22:460:22:48

Mark Urban there.

0:22:480:22:49

And to discuss this further now I'm

joined by Dia Chakravarty,

0:22:490:22:52

the Brexit Editor for The Daily

Telegraph.

0:22:520:22:53

Jonathan Freedland of The Guardian.

0:22:530:22:54

LBC presenter Iain Dale.

0:22:540:22:56

And Stephanie Bolzen

the London Correspondent,

0:22:560:22:57

for the German newspaper Die Welt.

0:22:570:22:59

And, before we actually say hello to

you, let's have a look at the front

0:22:590:23:04

pages, starting with the Mail.

Rejoice! We are on our way. The

0:23:040:23:10

price of freedom, the Daily

Telegraph goes on to list all of the

0:23:100:23:14

cost of the deal so far. And on to

the Guardian. The deal is done, the

0:23:140:23:20

EU warns of more delays. Stephanie,

we don't have Die Welt, but what's

0:23:200:23:25

it saying tomorrow morning?

Headline

is a bit similar to the Guardian,

0:23:250:23:29

saying, happy Britain, but Europe

remained sceptical. The comment on

0:23:290:23:34

page one also says, well, there is

maybe a bit of light at the end of

0:23:340:23:38

the tunnel. The pragmatism that we

are used to buy the Brits, the

0:23:380:23:42

smart, magmatic Brits, it has

returned maybe a little bit, but

0:23:420:23:46

watch this space.

That smart

pragmatism, interestingly, Dia, do

0:23:460:23:51

you think Theresa May, she is a much

stronger figure now than she was 24

0:23:510:23:55

hours?

Definitely, but you have to

see where she was coming from. On

0:23:550:24:00

Monday, things were looking pretty

bad. It felt that she was trying to

0:24:000:24:06

unite the country and bring the

Remainer and Brexiteer colleagues

0:24:060:24:10

together, and taking both the lot

together. Today than when she

0:24:100:24:14

actually managed to make some sort

of a progression in the process, it

0:24:140:24:18

looks very good for her. Certainly

it has bought her some time if

0:24:180:24:22

nothing else.

So far she seems to be

in command of her Cabinet if nothing

0:24:220:24:26

else.

She was working from a very

low base, she couldn't have been

0:24:260:24:30

weaker than two was, but to have got

through a deal and got over this

0:24:300:24:34

hurdle makes her stronger. Before

that, her job was hanging by a

0:24:340:24:42

thread on the basis of where she was

on Monday.

Iain Dale, what do you

0:24:420:24:45

make of the idea in Mark's fill that

the Europeans were saying that what

0:24:450:24:48

she was saying to Junker and the

others, leveraging her weakness, if

0:24:480:24:51

you don't deal with her you will

have two end up dealing with Boris

0:24:510:24:54

Johnson?

Jean-Claude Junker was

quite anxious that her government

0:24:540:24:57

might fall. This time yesterday, a

lot of us would have thought that

0:24:570:25:01

was quite near, but it is remarkable

what a difference 24 hours makes.

0:25:010:25:06

She is certainly in a very strong

position. It was a diplomatic

0:25:060:25:09

triumph of a Prime Minister. As Dia

says, to have got from Monday to

0:25:090:25:22

hear, got the DUP and the Irish

government on site, and I also

0:25:220:25:25

think, and something that I haven't

heard it said, I think a lot of EU

0:25:250:25:28

governments were putting pressure on

the European Commission saying, come

0:25:280:25:30

on, do this deal.

Wonder from a

German perspective if you think

0:25:300:25:32

that's correct, that individual

governments were saying to Junker,

0:25:320:25:34

look, is off, do this more

diplomatically, we have to get a

0:25:340:25:38

deal. Junker was taking an

incredibly negative attitude prior

0:25:380:25:41

to this week.

Yes, that might be the

case. But if you think back,

0:25:410:25:45

especially talking about the money,

it was the French and Germans that

0:25:450:25:48

were far more strict on this than

the commission was, actually. We

0:25:480:25:52

will see who was this. What is clear

is that of course as we leave,

0:25:520:26:04

especially in Berlin, there is

enough things in Europe happening.

0:26:040:26:06

So let's sort this out.

I think

that's exactly right, once the money

0:26:060:26:09

is sorted out, the position in Paris

and Berlin shifted to, we just want

0:26:090:26:12

this now dealt with. They have a

huge agenda in Europe that they want

0:26:120:26:15

to get on with, including closer

integration and defence. Having the

0:26:150:26:17

Brexit had a crumbling bun, they

just wanted it over. It helps by the

0:26:170:26:21

way of the other side, in this case

Britain, as more or less conceded in

0:26:210:26:25

all of the key demands.

Who do you

think came out of that on this,

0:26:250:26:30

Europe or Theresa May?

Obviously

Europe did, they've got the money

0:26:300:26:40

that they wanted.

No, they haven't.

This is where all of the pundits

0:26:400:26:42

said, it's going to be 60 billion or

100 billion. It's not, it's

0:26:420:26:45

35-39,000,000,000.

Boris Johnson was

one of the ones talking...

He said

0:26:450:26:49

they can go whistle if it is

exorbitant.

And David Davis said it

0:26:490:26:55

was nonsense and other going to

happen.

We can argue that 35 billion

0:26:550:26:59

is exorbitant, but it is a long way

from 60.

You talk about the French

0:26:590:27:03

and Germans wanted to get their

money. But on the principle of

0:27:030:27:07

Ireland they had to say strong on no

solid border. Do you think it was

0:27:070:27:11

better that she pulled this off at

the last minute, or... What Arlene

0:27:110:27:16

Foster was saying today, time ran

out. As in, we're not very happy

0:27:160:27:20

about this.

She blinked.

Who do you

think blinked, Iain, sorry?

Arlene

0:27:200:27:25

Foster, clearly.

It's probably not a

popular idea on this panel, but it

0:27:250:27:32

seems to me a bit like the EU

blinked as well. On Monday, when

0:27:320:27:36

Theresa May said, this is not going

to happen, the EU could have said,

0:27:360:27:39

right, see you next year then. They

didn't, something did happen there,

0:27:390:27:43

they did come back to talk with her

again and they worked something out.

0:27:430:27:49

This note of full alignment, you

know, originally we are talking

0:27:490:27:54

regulatory alignment, now it's

follow my mid-.

No, before that it

0:27:540:27:58

was regulatory convergence.

This

could not be more important because

0:27:580:28:03

the soft Brexiteers and the fact

Remainers are seeing in this the

0:28:030:28:07

potential to in some ways for what

Brexit and keep Britain in the

0:28:070:28:11

Single Market and the Customs Union

in the names of alignment -- what

0:28:110:28:15

Brexit. They are assuming that

sacred is the aversion to having a

0:28:150:28:19

hard broader. When it really comes

to it, there is the choice between

0:28:190:28:23

staying in the Single Market and the

Customs Union, and palatable to

0:28:230:28:27

Brexiteers, and giving away and

actually allowing the border in the

0:28:270:28:30

end, that is what the Europeans

expects quite how long do you think

0:28:300:28:34

people might Jacob Rees-Mogg will

keep quiet about this in phase two?

0:28:340:28:38

All of the people and the so-called

hard Brexit site have been very

0:28:380:28:42

quiet. I don't think Nigel Farage

was right, I don't inspect them to

0:28:420:28:46

cause them trouble. There will be

people on the fringes who might. But

0:28:460:28:50

Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan are

fully supporting the Prime Minister.

0:28:500:28:53

Most of the Brexiteers have been

doing that. It is a triumph.

Let's

0:28:530:28:58

say, Stephanie, we are coming to

phase two, it. In the New Year, and

0:28:580:29:04

actually -- it. In the New Year, and

Junker... It's going to get very

0:29:040:29:08

tough against.

It will be messy,

there will be now a lot of different

0:29:080:29:14

fronts, because there will be

national member states' interest

0:29:140:29:18

coming in, there's the European

Parliament now gearing up, there's a

0:29:180:29:22

lot of different interests.

Let's

talk on this very subject. One key

0:29:220:29:26

thing was in this phase one, what

became very clear, you know, it was

0:29:260:29:31

one for all and all for one. The 20

27 states together didn't flinch and

0:29:310:29:36

they were powerful for it. So what

the 27 states. But when it comes to

0:29:360:29:47

trade, the car industry and

everything else, how much do you

0:29:470:29:49

think the 27 will stay together?

I

wouldn't put too much money on

0:29:490:29:52

fractions between the Europeans. The

Europeans wanted the same, they

0:29:520:29:54

wanted the money, but the second

phase now is of course, you can get

0:29:540:29:57

what? At the end of the day, there

is no cherry picking. This will

0:29:570:30:00

unify the Europeans, no cherry

picking for the Brits.

I think it

0:30:000:30:04

will be very difficult to get a

bespoke deal, but we've got to try.

0:30:040:30:08

I think Ian Duncan Smith has written

a piece for us into Morra's

0:30:080:30:11

Telegraph. That is saying, as a

Brexiteer, he is not jubilant but he

0:30:110:30:23

doesn't feel betrayed either. That

captures the mood of most Brexiteers

0:30:230:30:25

very well. They are hanging onto

this line that nothing is agreed

0:30:250:30:28

until everything is agreed. So

everything can actually...

Will Iain

0:30:280:30:30

Duncan Smith go for a Norway style

deal, really?

What he's saying,

0:30:300:30:33

again, sorry to repeat it, but

nothing is agreed...

No, they won't,

0:30:330:30:38

this is the point. They can't

stomach staying in the Single Market

0:30:380:30:43

and Customs Union, even though the

logic is that they must.

I don't

0:30:430:30:47

think so, I don't think that's

right.

Let me explain why, because

0:30:470:30:51

if you leave the Single Market and

the Customs Union, the EU has the

0:30:510:30:55

pleased the border on its external

frontier, and that means a hard

0:30:550:30:58

border in Ireland.

Is there an

alternative?

All four parties,

0:30:580:31:06

Ireland, Britain, the Northern

Ireland Assembly and the EU or want

0:31:060:31:09

a frictionless border. If they all

have the same game they will get

0:31:090:31:12

there in the end. They will come out

of the Customs Union, because if

0:31:120:31:18

they don't, Liam Fox doesn't have a

job. We can't negotiate our own

0:31:180:31:23

trade deals. We've got this

agreement today between the EU and

0:31:230:31:27

Japan. Does anyone seriously think

that we're not more convergent than

0:31:270:31:31

the Japanese economy? I mean,

please!

I'm afraid we have to end

0:31:310:31:35

it. There will be a lot more

conversation in the next few weeks.

0:31:350:31:41

That's all we have time for.

0:31:410:31:45

Have lovely weekend from all of us

here at Newsnight, good night.

0:31:450:31:50

Have lovely weekend from all of us

here at Newsnight, good night.

0:31:500:31:53

Well, there is more snow on the way,

but there is a bit of a long also on

0:31:530:31:58

the way for Saturday.

0:31:580:31:59

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