02/01/2018 Newsnight


02/01/2018

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LineFromTo

She thinks she'll still be in charge

at the end of the year...

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Because in the United Kingdom

in 2018, everyone deserves

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the chance to succeed.

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He thinks he could Prime

Minister before long...

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Backing the things which most people

want,

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but are blocked

by vested interests.

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We are a government in waiting.

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So how will 2018 pan out?

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A new year, but old

politics is dead.

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Everything changed in 2017

and the parties are playing

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by new rules, so it's a fine time

to ask where we are going.

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Who better than the members

of our prestigious panel of pundits

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and pollsters to provide a map

of the route ahead?

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Also tonight, there's been six

days of unrest in Iran,

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is it theocracy vs democracy?

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And what does it mean

for the reformist President Rouhani,

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that his reforms have evidently not

won over the people?

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Cherie Blair offers

a new year suggestion on how

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to promote economic growth.

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That there is a vast opportunity

that is being underused in every

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single country across the world.

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That opportunity is women.

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And in the last year, almost 1,000

bank branches have shut.

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Three of those were in

Holywell in Flintshire.

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We see why it hurts,

and what traders can do about it.

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They all say that they are for

the businesses and that and yet

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they're is not helping us at all.

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They're making it harder

for us to get to them.

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Because if we run out of change

or need to do a bank for cash

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and that, you can't just nip

to the bank any more.

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You've got to physically go

to a town somewhere else.

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Hello, happy new year.

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Hopefully.

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But who will it be

a happy new year for?

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That's where we start tonight

as we take advantage of the fact

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that 2018 is still in its warm-up

phase to look at politics here,

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and how it might evolve.

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As always, the big battle is the one

between the Conservatives and Labour

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and rarely has the choice

between them been as stark.

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So how a minority Conservative

government gets on,

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and whether Labour can threaten

it is an obvious issue

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for the year ahead.

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But in some ways, a lot

of the action in politics these days

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is within the two main parties.

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They both have huge great cracks

down the middle of them,

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and yet both have survived 2017

in one piece.

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Can they really survive the storms

of Brexit and 2018 without at least

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one of them suffering a big rupture?

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Well, we'll reflect on that shortly,

but first, Chris Cook has been

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looking at the queue of storms

heading the way of the

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government in 2018.

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The government is facing an Olympiad

of challenges this year. Here are

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five events that will probably

define whether 2018 is remembered as

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a success.

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The most important one,

of course, is Brexit.

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We are heading to leave the EU

in the spring of next year,

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but the initial deal,

whatever it is, needs to be

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agreed by this autumn.

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So we have time to get it

through the various parliaments.

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Ireland remains a big

issue for a deal.

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A lot of Brexiteers wanted

to diverge from the EU's rule

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books and want the UK,

including Northern Ireland,

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to move as a single block.

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But our government has already

agreed there may need to be full

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alignment with those rules

with the internal market

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and the Customs Union,

which relate to cooperation

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on the island of Ireland.

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That seems irreconcilable.

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There may also be difficulties

managing expectations.

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The EU has said our current...

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Negotiating position means we will

only get a deal like that granted to

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Canada. And we won't get details of

that signed off in the coming year.

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Only outline principles.

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Anaemic growth was the norm

before the referendum,

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that's all we've had since,

and it remains the expectation

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for the coming years.

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That will mean a continued

squeeze on wages.

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One of the most painful facts

of life about post-crisis Britain

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looks likely to continue.

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Weak growth will also mean weak tax

revenue growth and that complicates

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tasks like the introduction

of Universal Credit.

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It would always be hard and fiddly,

but doing this on a budget

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makes everything harder.

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The benefit being much less generous

than it had been planned to be adds

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a lot of pain into the mixture.

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The NHS and social care are another

troublesome problem.

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The care services are

desperate for money,

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and we are well off our

target at the moment.

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So far, the public has seemed quite

relaxed about longer waits,

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but the clinical problems it creates

are mounting and public

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indifference may soon turn.

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Finally, keep an eye

on universities.

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While well shielded from austerity,

they are perhaps the most pro-Remain

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sector in the country and they're

having their funding reviewed.

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And a new regulator's coming in.

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Which has already caused

some consternation.

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If you were trying to foment

a culture war, it's harder to think

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a better way to get going.

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It's not all doom and gloom.

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Precisely because polls

suggest the British

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public aren't optimistic.

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So a middling finish might be

greeted quite warmly.

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But it's certainly a gruesome

set of obstacles ahead

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for a minority government.

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Chris Cook's guide to

the government's challenges.

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In terms of the Labour opposition,

2017 was quite a year.

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One in which old rules were broken,

particularly the rules of thumb

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by which political experts manage

to look like experts.

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Here's a quick look back

at our new year programme

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this time last year,

and what our panel had to say

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about Jeremy Corbyn.

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Ignore the fact the guests

are sitting at school desks, no-one

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can remember what we were thinking,

but it seemed like a good

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idea at the time.

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The question I put was,

can Labour recover?

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It is very difficult

to see how Labour can move

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on from its current situation.

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Actually, when the polls

get it wrong they tend

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to understate Labour,

not overstate Labour,

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so if they're wrong,

they're quite likely to be wrong

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the other way round.

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Obviously, Corbyn's no

good, but he may go.

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Imagine that Ed Balls came

back into Parliament,

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imagine Ed Balls was leading

the Labour Party.

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Imagine that Theresa May stumbles.

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Actually, I think it's worse

than you're saying though for Corbyn

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because what I get in focus groups

is not that people don't like him.

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He's literally irrelevant.

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That was last year. You're going to

see some of those faces again.

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We're joined by the LBC

presenter Iain Dale,

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the founder of Britain Thinks,

Deborah Mattinson,

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who you heard there, Faiza Shaheen,

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the director of the Centre

for Labour and Social Studies,

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and by the Times columnist Matthew

Parris.

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We should start with last year and

you weren't the only one who said it

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last year. You got a lot right.

You

didn't show it!

What happened last

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year, that the pundits got Jeremy

Corbyn wrong?

The central thing that

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happened was that younger voters

turned out to vote. When you are

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predicting what is going to have an

election, the best tools you have

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are how people have behaved last

time. What we all did, this is why

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it wasn't just pollsters that

politicians, canvassers, everybody

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read it wrong. Everybody was

assuming that young people, as they

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have done in the past, said they

were going to vote and yes, they

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were going to support labour and

they did not turn out. This time the

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experts were confounded because they

did turn out, that made a big

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difference.

Matthew, have a go at

this interesting question, will the

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young people turn up next time? What

would be the working assumption now?

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I don't know why you are asking us,

we got it so wrong last time. Get

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some new pundits! You should never

underestimate the Conservative

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Party's capacity to fail to infuse

the population. It wasn't just

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Jeremy Corbyn's success but the

Conservative Party just didn't fizz.

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Young people want a bit of fizz and

we underestimated the hunger for

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that.

How do you think these new

rules that prevailed last year will

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last? Will it go back to the old

style of business?

We make a mistake

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when we make this about individuals

or specifics of rules. What has

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happened is that a number of

conservative ideologies, about the

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way we run the economy, whether it's

about the way in which posterity has

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spectacularly failed and cost people

in society, or whether it be the

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setup on Brexit. A lot of people can

see that these ideas are not

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delivering any more. Things have

changed. How do we expect young

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people to support market

fundamentalism when they themselves

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don't have any capital? You can't be

capitalist when you don't have any

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capital. We look at this issue of

young people, we talk it up to

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individuals but there is something

much deeper here. It's about the way

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in which the plates of society and

the economy are shifting.

For the

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time. Things have changed and people

have changed their views

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accordingly. There are three battles

in politics. Within Tories, Labour

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and Tories and Labour. Let's go back

to the Tories. We didn't play your

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election predictions. Iain. The

Tories have held it together in the

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last year, will they get through

2018 together as a party?

Theresa

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May's objective was to make it to

Christmas and quite unbelievably.

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The chance to get rid of her was on

June the 9th and they didn't get rid

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of her. There hasn't been a king or

queen over the water, no wonder they

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can unite around and replace Theresa

May with. That's still the case now.

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That will probably be the case this

time next year. We will still be in

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that position. She is an ever

stronger a position than people

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think. Strong enough to carry out

quite a wide-ranging reshuffle. She

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will say, I date you to get rid of

me.

Including Boris?

-- I dare you.

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Including Boris and the Chancellor.

She can certainly move one of them.

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I might regret saying this but the

big battles over Brexit have already

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been had in 2017. The big battle

this year will be in the House of

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Lords. That could be trickier for

Theresa May than anybody realises.

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We have a two-year parliament, they

can't invoke the Parliament act

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until after we have left the EU.

Because the deal would have been

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done. The only way out is if the

House of Lords cut up rough. The

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only way out of that is a general

election.

I rather question your

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confidence in her longevity. She is

like a ping-pong ball, balanced on a

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fountain.

She is like a weevil, she

wobbles but never falls down.

She

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has no weight of her own, one

stumble and accident, and accidents

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happen in politics.

There have been

so many since the election. She

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stumbled over Graham fell, the

machinations over Brexit. She has

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got through those -- over Grenfell

Tower.

What do you mean that Brexit

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is sorted out now?

We haven't said

that.

We will be confronted with

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Norway or Canada. What is going to

happen?

The conversation about

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Brexit this year will throw up so

much. Yes, in the House of Lords,

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but also in terms of trade. Trade

isn't just about the movement of

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goods any more. It will also be

about the issue of movement of

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people. So much will have to be an

done and redone this year. When we

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have a Conservative Party that isn't

united, that doesn't have a vision

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for Brexit...

And Labour does?

Really? Really? Really? They offer

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something different. What is easy

movement because no one can define

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it crossed my -- what does easy

movement mean.

Is Brexit holding the

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party together?

No. To be fair,

though, I don't think there is one

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that holds the Labour Party

together, either. That's the

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problem. There are three groups of

people, one, the diehards,

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passionate about Brexit, the

devastated pessimists, they have

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their heads on their desks and are

beside themselves with sorrow. About

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one third each, there is a third in

the middle who are swing voters.

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They are a bit more relaxed either

way. It's very hard to envisage any

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kind of solution.

I can.

I think

there is a Brexit that can more or

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less look inside the Conservative

Party. Iain, this issue may never

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explode. The Brexit that will

satisfy the Conservative Party is

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that we formally leave the European

Union but to all intents and

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purposes stay within the European

Union.

That won't satisfy everybody!

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That might satisfy you but not me.

Or many others.

That's the problem.

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We have to real people like you in

like a fish, very gradually.

That is

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not possible.

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Is another area again where the

Conservatives are not going to

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deliver. They have built up these

promises and they will fail. People

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will be angry.

Let's come to Labour.

Labour have held it together. By not

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saying anything on anything. That

might be the right tactic. To stay

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quiet.

Of course, there are

political tactics. And what is clear

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about what Labour offered in the

last election and what word is that

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when the manifesto came out and they

talked about bringing the rail

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services back into public ownership,

the talked about housing, they

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talked about what they would do with

homelessness and the NHS. They offer

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something different to young people.

Bribes?

Unfunded bribes. I different

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way to fund the economy.

More want

-- more money for everyone.

There

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was a poll yesterday which suggested

more people feel that Labour's

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values are closely matched to their

own values. Many more than the

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Conservatives. If that is the case,

how come the Conservatives are

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polling so much further ahead of

their own values?

Why is it

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basically level pegging?

Theresa May

still outranks Jeremy Corbyn as best

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Prime Minister by a mile.

Can you

envisage Labour pulling ahead

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significantly?

Yes I can. I can't

underestimate the Conservative

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Party's ability to discuss the

electorate. We will see in the

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London elections in May what happens

to the Tories in London. British

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people may want to vote for a mangy

aardvark rather than vote for the

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President Conservative Party --

present Conservative Party. That is

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what worries me.

Is this the year we

get off Brexit as a conversation? Is

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it possible to talk about

something... The headlines of the

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newspapers tomorrow, NHS tells

hospital to cancel routine

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operations. Winter crisis cripples

the NHS. The guardian on the same

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topic.

It is the issue that most

people are concerned about. 51%. At

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the NHS is now 45%, the highest it

has been for 16 years. It is rising

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up. People are getting more and more

concerned. It relates to Brexit,

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people link the two together.

Just

give the HS a few billion more as an

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emergency and the immediate crisis

subsides -- the NHS. It doesn't

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solve the problem but it takes it

out of the headlines, that is what

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they will do.

It is what they always

do.

But people are using the NHS.

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This is what people get wrong, the

public are constantly using these

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services, they have seen a change.

There is a time lag.

They are

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frustrated. They won't just be upset

about Brexit but about seeing more

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homeless people on the street, but

how difficult it is to get

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appointments. 2018 will be a year

where these trends and these

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mistakes and butter from Di

Dougherty at the Conservatives and

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their policies are going to lay out.

-- and the defunct ideology.

Housing

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is the highest level of concern

since the 70s. The economy is

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something that is not being talked

about.

That is a real challenge for

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Theresa May. A lot depends on who

she points as her deputy if she does

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that. She needs to effectively own

the Brexit agenda. A bit like the

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Second World War, there needs to be

a church or in charge. I can't

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compare Theresa May to Winston

Churchill. -- Billy needs to be a

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Churchill in charge. There needs to

be a figure a Atlee bit like who can

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run domestic politics. -- a bit like

Atlee.

Where does this end this

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year? Do any of you expect a general

election. You also know last year.

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No.

Only if the House of Lords does

play up. I can't foresee other

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circumstances.

And political parties

intact at the end of this year?

Sort

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of. We stumble on.

Muddle through

scenario?

With no new leaders?

It is

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a shame. We will be treading water

at such a crucial time for this

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country.

Less of a shame.

What about

third parties? Do any of you think

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another party, third party...

No.

Labour has changed and Corbyn offers

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something different. A new Labour.

There is something very different

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here on offer. It speaks to people's

concerns and their needs and their

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worries.

Exactly. I think that as

well.

That is a good question on

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which we will finish. Muddle through

and finished the year where we

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start. Thank you and happy New Year.

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In Iran, six days of riots,

spreading to around 50 cities

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and towns with over 20 people dead.

0:18:120:18:13

Something is up, but what exactly?

0:18:130:18:16

Unlike the protests a decade ago,

when educated urban youths protested

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against a disputed election result

that gave power to a hardline

0:18:200:18:23

president, today it seems that many

poorer or unemployed Iranians

0:18:230:18:26

are on the streets.

0:18:260:18:28

And in power now is not a hard

liner, but a moderate,

0:18:280:18:30

President Hassan Rouhani.

0:18:300:18:35

He's the one the West has bet on,

signing a nuclear deal with him

0:18:350:18:38

in the hope he'd soften the regime.

0:18:380:18:40

Well, Iran's supreme leader,

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is blaming

0:18:400:18:42

enemies of the country.

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The US has condemned the regime

and said all freedom-loving people

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must stand with the cause

of the Iranian people.

0:18:460:18:50

John Sweeney has been looking at how

the unrest has evolved.

0:18:500:18:57

Welcome to a small town in Iran.

0:18:570:18:59

It was burning last night.

0:18:590:19:06

The numbers of protesters are small,

but uprising in the likes of this

0:19:060:19:08

town could be big trouble

for the regime.

0:19:080:19:11

They are shouting, "Death

to the dictator"

0:19:140:19:18

and that's not good news

for the supreme leader,

0:19:180:19:23

Ali Khamenei and his iron fist,

the Revolutionary Guards.

0:19:230:19:25

We want freedom!

0:19:250:19:27

We want freedom!

0:19:270:19:31

In 2009, millions took

to the streets of Teheran to protest

0:19:310:19:33

against vote rigging.

0:19:330:19:36

Why should much smaller numbers

in 2018 pose a problem?

0:19:360:19:44

What they thought was a controlled

burn has essentially spread

0:19:440:19:49

into a wildfire that you're seeing

in cities and provincial towns,

0:19:490:19:52

places we haven't seen protests

since the 1979 revolution.

0:19:520:19:54

I think that's interesting,

especially when you

0:19:540:19:56

look at the numbers.

0:19:560:20:00

You had millions of people taking

to the streets of Teheran,

0:20:000:20:03

you're finding that hundreds at most

a few thousand people are taking

0:20:030:20:06

to the streets right now.

0:20:060:20:07

I think that's interesting.

0:20:070:20:14

The numbers aren't big

but the geography is.

0:20:140:20:17

This map, produced by opponents

of the regime, points to how

0:20:170:20:19

widespread the protests are.

0:20:190:20:21

This is an uprising

from across the country, but even

0:20:210:20:24

more toxic to the powers

that be in Teheran,

0:20:240:20:27

it's coming from below.

0:20:270:20:32

Many of these cities, even Iranians

don't know where they are.

0:20:320:20:35

They are small towns.

0:20:350:20:36

What we know about these

demonstrators is that they are poor,

0:20:360:20:39

many of them voted for Rouhani

a few months ago.

0:20:390:20:42

They are disappointed in him,

in President Rouhani.

0:20:420:20:44

Many of them did not vote,

they don't have a leader

0:20:440:20:47

but they are frustrated,

they are angry and they want change.

0:20:470:20:54

But the regime does not.

0:20:540:21:02

These are its motorbike warriors,

on the streets of Teheran to keep

0:21:020:21:05

things the way they are.

0:21:050:21:13

Their master, Supreme

Leader Ali Khamenei,

0:21:130:21:15

blaming amongst others

Western spies.

0:21:150:21:16

TRANSLATION:

Following recent

events, the enemies have united

0:21:160:21:18

and are using all their means,

money, weapons, policies

0:21:180:21:20

and security services to create

problems for the Islamic Republic.

0:21:200:21:29

His president, Hassan Rouhani,

took a more sober tone,

0:21:290:21:32

calling the protests

and opportunity, not a threat.

0:21:320:21:37

Donald Trump has been banging

the drum for regime change.

0:21:370:21:41

So has he once again identified

an angry working-class space?

0:21:410:21:47

Whether we want it or not,

Donald Trump is the president

0:21:470:21:50

of the United States.

0:21:500:21:52

And as such, many

Iranian protesters,

0:21:520:21:55

they want to hear from him.

0:21:550:21:58

They want the support

of the American president.

0:21:580:22:01

Whether it's Barack Obama,

George Bush or Donald Trump,

0:22:010:22:06

they want the American President,

British Prime Minister,

0:22:060:22:09

leaders of different countries

supporting their movement.

0:22:090:22:19

This was the scene

outside the Iranian

0:22:210:22:22

Embassy today.

0:22:220:22:23

The people making the noise

here are quite different to

0:22:230:22:26

the demonstrators back

in Iran, the people driving

0:22:260:22:28

the latest uprising.

0:22:280:22:29

Historically, it's been the well

travelled, people with passports,

0:22:290:22:31

the wealthy, who try and overturn

the regime in Teheran.

0:22:310:22:34

This time it's the poor

are, this time it's

0:22:340:22:41

the base and that is what makes it

so dangerous for the regime and also

0:22:410:22:45

so difficult to call.

0:22:450:22:49

But how deep is the hunger

for actual revolution?

0:22:490:22:53

You don't really have to look far

to understand what could potentially

0:22:530:22:56

happen here.

0:22:560:23:01

The Arab uprisings in 2011

are a perfect example, Egypt, Libya

0:23:010:23:05

and Syria, which the Iranian

government has a hand in, a perfect

0:23:050:23:09

example of a situation they don't

want Iran to turn out to be.

0:23:090:23:12

The new year hasn't

started so well for the

0:23:120:23:16

supreme leader and his iron fist.

0:23:160:23:21

Too much force and blood spilt

will drive the uprising.

0:23:210:23:23

Too little and the regime

could lose control.

0:23:230:23:28

Azadeh Moaveni is a journalist

and academic who has been

0:23:280:23:30

covering the Middle East

for nearly two decades.

0:23:300:23:35

We're also joined from New York

by Ian Bremmer who's the president

0:23:350:23:37

of the Eurasia Group,

a political risk research

0:23:370:23:39

and consulting firm,

which published its annual report

0:23:390:23:41

on the world's geopolitical

challenges today.

0:23:410:23:50

Just take me through what the fault

line is, what is the divide? Is it

0:23:500:23:58

secular and clerical, rich and poor,

economic? What is the divide.

I

0:23:580:24:03

think what we're seeing in terms of

what is unfolding on the streets is

0:24:030:24:07

a very young, very radical, very

disenfranchised command of the

0:24:070:24:11

population that feels frustrated

with economic conditions it is under

0:24:110:24:19

-- segment of the population. You

can see from the radical nature of

0:24:190:24:24

the slogans, they have little stake

in the system, so frustrated that

0:24:240:24:28

they can't imagine reform, they just

want their difficulties to end. Some

0:24:280:24:32

of them are very traditional, some

of them are religious, some of them

0:24:320:24:36

may believe in the system but find

it very corrupt in many aspects.

0:24:360:24:42

It's complicated, in a way!

Exactly.

It isn't theocracy versus democracy

0:24:420:24:49

like a Philip Pullman novel where it

is the Conservative clerics against

0:24:490:24:53

the forces of progression? No, we

have to remember that six months ago

0:24:530:24:59

there was an election and Rouhani

won on a landslide, 70 million

0:24:590:25:03

Iranians voted, it turned out, voted

for his platform of economic change

0:25:030:25:07

with hope, wanting to integrate into

the world. But the government of

0:25:070:25:14

Rouhani has had a challenge. These

are the people who are not seeing

0:25:140:25:17

anything trickle-down.

Are the

protesters calling for him to be

0:25:170:25:21

pulled down or for the ayatollah?

I

think that the protesters are crying

0:25:210:25:29

in rage. I think they don't have

clear demands, they aren't

0:25:290:25:34

articulating -- they are

articulating their rage at not

0:25:340:25:36

having their grievances met or

considered.

I think you put Iran at

0:25:360:25:42

number five on the global risks in

terms of your Iran US relations

0:25:420:25:48

today. It is ironic because Rouhani

is the guy that the West has been

0:25:480:25:53

backing over the last few years,

investing a lot of hope in him. Is

0:25:530:25:58

this the end of that strategy? Does

it work now?

Well, it is the end of

0:25:580:26:05

the West, right, in a sense that you

have the Europeans still supporting

0:26:050:26:11

reformists in Iran and the Iranian

nuclear deal but not the United

0:26:110:26:14

States, not the club administration.

To the extent that these

0:26:140:26:20

demonstrations showed the viability

of Rouhani, they potentially lead to

0:26:200:26:27

a hardline backlash which plays into

Trump's anti-Iran, anti-work with

0:26:270:26:34

these people narrative and leads to

more conflict. I think that the US

0:26:340:26:41

Iranian fight is likely to become

considerably more challenging over

0:26:410:26:44

the course of this year. And I also

agree that the people who are

0:26:440:26:49

demonstrating right now come from a

lot of different walks of life. They

0:26:490:26:52

are very courageous because the

dangers they face from this regime,

0:26:520:26:57

for them and their families, is the

ultimate. It reminds me of what we

0:26:570:27:01

saw in Syria in the early days of

the anti-President Assad protests.

0:27:010:27:06

But they did not go well, they were

severely repressed and Assad is

0:27:060:27:13

firmly in charge. Your guest

mentioned about Egypt. Sure, what

0:27:130:27:17

happened? The military still in

charge, a new president brought in

0:27:170:27:20

who never really had power and Egypt

feels like how it used to. Small

0:27:200:27:26

demonstrations in rusher around the

country, severely disenfranchised

0:27:260:27:30

people who have no voice and not

going to get one. Despite what we're

0:27:300:27:35

seeing, the likelihood that we are

on the brink of regime change,

0:27:350:27:40

something that can't be repressed,

remains very low.

Do you think that

0:27:400:27:46

the outcome of this is repression or

accommodation of grievances?

It

0:27:460:27:50

could be both. You had Rouhani and

members of Parliament and

0:27:500:27:55

significant figures within the

government acknowledged these

0:27:550:28:00

grievances and the importance of

having space for them to articulate

0:28:000:28:03

them, but lawfully, not through

vandalism and hooliganism. That's

0:28:030:28:08

why speaking to people in Teheran

varies and villains -- there is

0:28:080:28:14

ambivalence about what is happening.

There is a recognition of the

0:28:140:28:17

grievance but it will be quickly

criminalised because it is

0:28:170:28:22

destructive.

Do you think it's

helpful when President Trump

0:28:220:28:27

blusters into the debate and

supports people? Obama was famously

0:28:270:28:31

much more cautious about supporting

protests in 2009. Does it help to

0:28:310:28:38

bolster the administration in Iran

if Trump comes in or not?

It

0:28:380:28:43

certainly helps Trump domestically,

there is no pro-Iran regime

0:28:430:28:50

sentiment in the US, there is no

lobby for it. Trump made his first

0:28:500:28:54

visit outside the US to Riyadh,

which is very unusual. He doubles

0:28:540:29:00

down on that by going after the

Iranian. The Israelis are planning a

0:29:000:29:06

naming of a railway station after

him. All the constituents that Trump

0:29:060:29:12

cares about, it's great. In terms of

whether it's going to help those who

0:29:120:29:16

are demonstrating on the Trump

providing support, no, it's probably

0:29:160:29:21

useless and marginal. First of all

because the US isn't making the

0:29:210:29:26

moves and does not have influence on

the ground in Iran today. They are

0:29:260:29:30

going to a gauge in backlash against

these demonstrators anyway and they

0:29:300:29:36

are going to blame foreign actors

irrespective of what Trump says so I

0:29:360:29:40

don't think it plays out on the

ground in Iran one bit.

We are going

0:29:400:29:44

to talk about this more. Thank you

for joining us.

0:29:440:29:49

More projecting ahead now.

0:29:490:29:50

Because it's time for one

of our Viewsnight spots,

0:29:500:29:52

and each day this week we'll be

running one of these,

0:29:520:29:54

and each offering a view on a big

idea that will be preoccupying

0:29:540:29:58

us in 2018.

0:29:580:29:59

Tonight, it's the human rights

lawyer Cherie Blair,

0:29:590:30:01

on a suggestion to boost

global economic growth.

0:30:010:30:04

Women's rights, what's the point?

0:30:050:30:08

Now, you've enjoyed a few bank

holidays over the last couple

0:32:260:32:29

of weeks, but that phrase

is becoming increasingly archaic

0:32:290:32:32

and irrelevant in a world

where banks don't have branches,

0:32:320:32:35

that can take holidays.

0:32:350:32:38

Here is an astonishing fact

that our technology editor has

0:32:380:32:41

uncovered: since the beginning

of last year, the four big British

0:32:410:32:43

banks have closed or announced plans

to close 18% of their branches.

0:32:430:32:46

About 1,000.

0:32:460:32:48

That's 18% in about a year.

0:32:480:32:54

Now you might say who needs cash

in the age of contactless payments?

0:32:540:32:57

But it's not altogether that simple.

0:32:570:32:59

As long as some people use cash,

small retail businesses

0:32:590:33:01

need physical banks.

0:33:010:33:02

Well, David Grossman

is our technology editor and he has

0:33:020:33:05

been to a town with a population

of about 9,000 people

0:33:050:33:08

to see how departing banks

affect commercial life,

0:33:080:33:09

and how shops might themselves

respond, by moving to alternatives

0:33:090:33:12

to old-school banking services.

0:33:120:33:13

All is not well in Holywell.

0:33:130:33:17

The only bank that's guaranteed

to stand by this part of Flintshire

0:33:170:33:20

is the one that separates it

from the River Dee.

0:33:200:33:24

Until last year, there were four

banks on the high street.

0:33:240:33:29

One after another,

three of them closed.

0:33:290:33:36

Each hole in the wall became

just a hole in a wall.

0:33:400:33:44

The cash points of the one remaining

bank now has a permanent queue.

0:33:440:33:49

For a lot of people, they only came

into town for the banks.

0:33:490:33:54

So, because the banks had gone,

it was easier to go somewhere

0:33:540:34:00

in the town where there is a bank

so they can do their shopping

0:34:000:34:04

and banking at the same time.

0:34:040:34:05

Karen Lloyd runs a flower

shop in Holywell.

0:34:050:34:07

She says the banks' departure has

been devastating for small

0:34:070:34:10

businesses like hers who need

branches to deposit

0:34:100:34:12

their cash takings.

0:34:120:34:18

They all say that they are for

businesses and that and yet they're

0:34:180:34:21

not helping us at all and making it

harder for us to get to them.

0:34:210:34:25

Because if we run out

of change or you need to do

0:34:250:34:28

a bank for cash and that,

you can't just nip

0:34:280:34:30

to the bank any more.

0:34:300:34:31

You've got to physically go

to another town somewhere else.

0:34:310:34:35

Of course, this isn't just

happening in this town,

0:34:350:34:37

it's happening all over the UK.

0:34:370:34:38

The government has opened up

banking to competition

0:34:380:34:40

and many of the newcomers

into the market are online only.

0:34:400:34:43

Clicks don't need many bricks.

0:34:430:34:47

In an effort to stay competitive,

the traditional banks are dropping

0:34:470:34:52

branches faster than a dead tree

in a storm.

0:34:520:34:56

All over the UK, the scars

of missing bank signs.

0:34:560:34:59

At the start of 2017 the big

four UK banks had 5354

0:34:590:35:03

branches between them.

0:35:030:35:06

Since then, Barclays

has closed 98 branches.

0:35:060:35:09

HSBC, 129.

0:35:110:35:13

Lloyds, which includes Halifax

and Bank of Scotland,

0:35:140:35:16

have closed or announced

they will close 250 and RBS,

0:35:160:35:18

including NatWest, have closed

or announced they will close 471.

0:35:200:35:24

That's a total of 948 branches gone

or going in a little over a year.

0:35:260:35:31

For most towns, the story would end

there, with empty buildings

0:35:350:35:38

and a sense of decline.

0:35:380:35:39

And so it might have done

for Holywell had it not been

0:35:390:35:42

for a chance conversation

between the local MP

0:35:420:35:44

and a tech executive.

0:35:440:35:48

I met David Hanson, the MP

for the Yeovil constituency

0:35:500:35:52

and we were talking about the issues

that Holywell was facing

0:35:520:35:59

and as Square is a relatively

new business to the UK,

0:35:590:36:02

we only launched in March of this

year, we were really keen to get

0:36:020:36:07

close to a town like Holywell

to understand the problems that

0:36:070:36:10

small businesses have there and see

if there was anything

0:36:100:36:12

we could do to help.

0:36:120:36:13

I have a three metre one,

which is a bit on the long side.

0:36:130:36:17

Square is already big in the US,

it allows small businesses

0:36:170:36:19

like Phil Jones' computer store

in Holywell to take card

0:36:190:36:22

payments with a smartphone.

0:36:220:36:23

There's no contract

and there is a fixed fee.

0:36:230:36:27

In partnership with the town

council, Square has given free card

0:36:270:36:30

readers to any business

that wanted one.

0:36:300:36:32

Over 90% have signed up.

0:36:320:36:38

I took cards up until 2014 and then

I stopped taking cards.

0:36:380:36:45

Why?

0:36:450:36:46

The payment terminal I had

was costing me a lot of money

0:36:460:36:51

as rental and I had minimum

processing fees every month

0:36:510:36:54

and there were different

variable costs with different

0:36:540:36:55

types of transactions.

0:36:550:36:57

Some lower than Square,

some higher than Square.

0:36:570:36:58

So in average, even if I wasn't

using it, it was costing over 40

0:36:580:37:02

odd pounds a month just

to have a machine here.

0:37:020:37:04

For many businesses in Holywell,

that outlay just didn't make sense

0:37:040:37:10

so they were locked in a world

of cash but now, without

0:37:100:37:13

the physical banks,

they and their customers needed

0:37:130:37:15

to process their cash.

0:37:150:37:17

Sweeny Ted Palmer has cut hair

in Holywell for decades.

0:37:170:37:20

He is typical of a cash

locked business.

0:37:200:37:22

His haircuts cost £6.

0:37:220:37:26

Having a card reader made no sense.

0:37:260:37:28

Initially, he was resistant

to Square's help.

0:37:280:37:30

£6, please.

0:37:300:37:32

But now he says he wouldn't go back.

0:37:320:37:39

People do ask me, do I take card

and I've lost custom over it.

0:37:390:37:43

On a couple of occasions, I've cut

people's hair and they said,

0:37:430:37:47

do you take card and I said no

and they said they would get

0:37:470:37:50

the cash from the machine and I've

watched them out of the window go

0:37:500:37:54

and carry on.

0:37:540:37:55

Free haircut?

0:37:550:37:56

Yeah, just not bother coming back.

0:37:560:37:57

So to me it was

a no-brainer, really.

0:37:570:37:59

As long as it was viable,

you know, it's another

0:37:590:38:02

service that I can offer.

0:38:020:38:04

And people are carrying

less and less cash.

0:38:040:38:09

The banks still visit Holywell,

this NatWest mobile banking

0:38:090:38:14

van sets up once a week

in the council car park.

0:38:140:38:18

Whilst it's true many

can now bank online,

0:38:180:38:22

once you get out of town,

internet connection isn't

0:38:220:38:24

always good enough.

0:38:240:38:25

Free card payment readers aren't

going to solve those challenges.

0:38:250:38:29

The town council says the project's

main benefit is to restore some

0:38:290:38:32

self belief in Holywell.

0:38:320:38:36

Yeah, I can happily see a turnaround

from the dismay of the original

0:38:360:38:41

banks shutting to people

being positive about the town.

0:38:410:38:47

We need to make a lot of changes.

0:38:470:38:51

It's not a silver bullet that

can solve everything,

0:38:510:38:53

but it certainly helps.

0:38:530:39:01

First, technology came

for the record shops

0:39:010:39:04

and the toy shops and book

shops and travel agents.

0:39:040:39:06

The fact that it's now come

for the bank branches

0:39:060:39:09

may feel inevitable.

0:39:090:39:12

Viewed from a busy City,

even a reasonable evolution.

0:39:120:39:14

But viewed from many rural towns,

the departure of the banks can feel

0:39:140:39:17

more like a dire threat

to their economic life.

0:39:170:39:21

Good luck to the last bank in

Holywell.

0:39:280:39:30

That's all for this evening.

0:39:300:39:32

But before we go, remember when acid

house was the seen as the most

0:39:320:39:35

corrupting force facing society?

0:39:350:39:36

Ruining the minds of our youth...

0:39:360:39:37

How things change -

rave culture is now at home

0:39:370:39:41

on the BBC's children's channel

Cbeebies - perhaps some

0:39:410:39:43

of the people Mrs Thatcher

were worried about are now

0:39:430:39:46

running the channel..?

0:39:460:39:48

Hey Dougie's songs are getting

so many young people moving

0:39:480:39:51

that its soundtrack has even

made its way on to

0:39:510:39:53

BBC Radio 6 music.

0:39:530:39:55

Even if you weren't in a gravel pit

with a big speaker in 1989 we're

0:39:550:39:59

sure you'll enjoy this....

0:39:590:40:00

Goodnight.

0:40:000:40:01

MUSIC: Hey Duggee "Stick Song"

0:40:010:40:03

# Stick, stick, stick, stick

0:40:030:40:08

# Sticky, sticky, stick, stick.#

0:40:080:40:10

# Stick, stick, stick, stick

0:40:100:40:14

# Sticky, sticky, stick, stick.#

0:40:140:40:16

# Stick, stick, stick, stick

0:40:160:40:20

# Sticky, sticky, stick, stick.#

0:40:200:40:25

# Sticky, sticky, stick, stick.#

0:40:270:40:33

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