22/01/2018 Newsnight


22/01/2018

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This programme contains scenes

of Repetitive Flashing Images.

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For three decades, we've persuaded

ourselves we don't need

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to fight other countries -

that war had changed,

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it was all about insurgents.

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Well, is it time

to change our minds?

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Russia, I think, could initiate

hostilities sooner than we expect.

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And a lot earlier than we would

in similar circumstances.

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I don't think it will start

with little green men.

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It will start with

something we don't expect.

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Britain is set to have a new

Strategic Defence Review this year.

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The Generals are making

the case for more money.

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So tonight, we'll take a good look

at what our defence is for.

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And we'll hear a view

from the US, too.

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What do they think our

money should be buying?

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Also tonight: They say attack

is the best form of defence,

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which explains why the Ukip leader

is out to fight his

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rebellious colleagues.

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I shall respect the next steps

in the constitutional process,

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and will therefore not be resigning

as party leader.

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We tried the men in grey suits,

perhaps it's now time

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for the men in white coats.

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I don't know, he seems to me to have

lost all touch with reality.

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We'll ask Ukip old-timer Suzanne

Evans whether the party is now over.

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And, forget David Davis -

this is the man running Brexit

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for Britain: Civil servant Olly

Robbins.

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But Brexiteers worry that Whitehall

are not all with the programme.

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The officials will do their best

to frustrate this process,

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because as I say, it goes

against the grain so fundamentally.

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And, should the tradition of African

women kneeling be scrapped?

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Is it part of a proud heritage,

or an obstacle to social progress?

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Hello.

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What is our defence budget for?

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It's about 2% of our national

income, going up to about £40

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billion a year by the end

of the decade.

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Unfortunately, £40 billion doesn't

buy you as much is it used to.

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And the Head of the Army,

General Sir Nick Carter,

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set out the arguments for spending

more today - mostly by reference

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to the threat of a stronger Russia.

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Former Defence Secretary Sir Michael

Fallon said tonight we should aim

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to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence.

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But, you can't decide

what the right level of spending

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is until you know what it's for.

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You have to give the military a big

budget or narrow priorities -

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you can't expect them to do

everything with nothing.

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So, is fighting Russia what we think

British defence is about these days?

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Or any country?

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Britain is set to have a major

review of priorities this year -

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which actually explains why

Sir Nick Carter made his pitch

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today, so we'll look at some

of the central questions.

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First, here's our Defence

Editor, Mark Urban.

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So, the defence review that dare not

speak its name is dead,

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long live the Strategic Defence

and Security Review.

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It's not a pretty story

from the Government's point of view.

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Faced with higher costs for buying

equipment from abroad

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and an overset programme,

the Cabinet Office started looking

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for cuts late last summer.

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People in Whitehall told me it

couldn't be called a review

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because the then Defence Secretary,

Michael Fallon, had conducted one

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of those in 2015 and didn't

like the optics of having to do one

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again so soon.

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But it went deeper than that.

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As the Cabinet Office

conducted its capability refresh,

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as some people called it,

it started to look at possible deep

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cuts to Britain's Armed Forces.

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Details then leaked,

and MPs became outraged.

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Newsnight's learned

that the Royal Navy would lose its

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ability to assault

enemy-held beaches.

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Critically, when Newsnight broke

the news that there were plans

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to get rid of the amphibious landing

fleet, it touched off angry scenes

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in Parliament.

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Why should thousands of soldiers,

sailors and airmen be

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lost, elite units be merged,

or aircraft, frigates and vital

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amphibious vessels be scrapped long

before their out of service

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dates?

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When Michael Fallon resigned

in November, his successor, Gavin

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Williamson, got the Prime Minister's

backing to stop the original

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cost-cutting exercise.

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Now we can expect a full

Strategic Defence and

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Security Review in

the spring and summer.

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And today, the Army Chief

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set the stage, warning that Britain

must do more to counter Russia's

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enhanced military capabilities, and

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willingness to use them.

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I believe our ability

to pre-empt or respond

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to these threats will be eroded

if we don't match up to them now.

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They represent a clear

and present danger.

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Critical to the exercise now is not

just an attempt to balance

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the books, but to define the purpose

of the British Armed Forces

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post-Brexit.

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What hard power role does global

Britain expects to play,

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and how much will that cost?

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If Britain keeps on cutting.

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An army of 60,000 was mooted

in the last exercise.

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But what role can it

really play in helping

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its friends, or making

any

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realistic preparations for war

against another state?

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And Mark Urban is with me now.

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Ye used the word cutting, Mark. An

existing policy, is spending going

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up?

Cutting of capability is what

was in visit in this exercise in the

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last few months. The Gus MacPherson,

we are spending more and more. --

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the Government says. It is more and

more each year, a guarantee to spend

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more of the information on

equipment. It's not enough, though.

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Critically, the appreciation of

sterling on big programmes like the

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F-35 fighter, Trident replacement,

has bitten in far more deeply than

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those rises can cope with. The

forces have done what they've been

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doing constantly since the war,

they've overstepped the programme.

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They've put into many things, they

cannot afford all of their

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ambitions.

We are going to have the

Strategic Defence Review this year.

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Let's suppose we are going to do one

now in our guests with what the

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priorities are. What is the question

and white with you the most critical

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question is, the average member of

the public

thinks the Armed Forces

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are here to fight other countries if

that really has to happen. But the

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truth is, since the end of the Cold

War, Britain simply doesn't have

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that ability any more. And you can

park Russia and China. I mean, they

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really mega- once, for a bit. Any

country or non-state actor, and

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there are some, that can attack

warships with fast at supersonic and

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shipping missiles, people with

submarines, that could be Iran,

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North Korea, people with

sophisticated air defence networks,

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all of these countries have

capabilities that the UK, really

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either match, resist or take on.

Even the air defences of a country

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like Syria were causing

consternation in the MoD when they

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were asked seriously to look at 2013

at whether or not the UK could do

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strikes. It is really about any

other country with sophisticated

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weapons, fast jets, missiles,

submarines, and, critically, once it

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starts, the stocks of things like

torpedoes, anti-aircraft missiles,

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artillery shells, are so low that

Britain couldn't fight literally for

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more than a day or two.

Mark, that's

a good question, thank you very

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much. Let's raise that.

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Joining me now is Conservative MP

and former British Army

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Captain Johnny Mercer.

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I'm also joined

by military historian

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and commentator Max Hastings.

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And Kishwer Falkner,

Liberal Democrat peer and former

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National Security Strategy Committee

member.

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Former Assistant US Secretary

of Defense, Graham Allison -

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he's now Douglas Dillon Professor

of Government at the

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Harvard Kennedy School.

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He joins us from the US.

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I will start with you if I may,

Graham Allison, thank you for

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joining us. I want an American

perspective on a medium power,

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medium-sized power, just off Europe,

across the Atlantic, watch it we be

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spending on defence and what do you

think of our role is being so what

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should we be spending?

It is a tough

set of questions and I know people

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will struggle with it. But I think

Britain historically has played a

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crucial role of leadership in

Europe. Britain will not be able to

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defend its off against Russia. But

Britain as part of an alliance can

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hope to create a stable Europe,

which in fact we've actually done

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and seen in the period since World

War II, including after the Cold

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War. So, Britain's military forces

are most of all about getting it a

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seat at the table and a voice in

trying to shape sensible policy in

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Europe.

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Europe. And indeed in the

relationship with the US.

That's a

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really clear answer. Let me put this

to you, I think we get a seat at the

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table if we spent 2% of our national

income on defence, that is the

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native target. Most other Nato

countries are not even spending

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that. Should that be our aspiration,

or should we go further to attain

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that medium power role for

ourselves?

I believe the 2% is

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important symbolically, because

persuading Americans that we should

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spend more of our taxpayers' money

to defend Europe than Europeans do

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is not a long-term winning

proposition. Trump expresses the

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scepticism, it has a widespread view

in the US. I don't agree with that,

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but certainly the majority would do

so. I think that having, that

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keeping the US significantly in the

game and having Europeans play their

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part is very important. Secondly,

more important than how much money

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is spent, I think it's crucial to

meet the 2% criteria, but more

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important is what to buy. And I

think unfortunately, both in the

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American defence budget and in the

British defence budget, we are way

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too far in the legacy systems that

are hugely expensive, and too short

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on new technologies that could make

a more significant difference.

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That's the place where I would drill

down if I were part of the British

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strategic review.

Graham Allison,

thank you so much, that's a really

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clear start to this does the

Goschen. Let me turn to my other

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guests. Max Hastings, I want you to

paint for me a scenario that we

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couldn't deal with now but you think

we should be able to deal with,

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because you

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because you think we should be

spending more.

The Russians our

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overtime trying to push the

frontiers, especially in the Baltic

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states. We have a small contingent

in the Baltic states up in the

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moment. What Nick Carter was saying,

this is intended as a wake-up call.

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In recent years, we have been

looking overwhelmingly at a

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terrorist threat to Britain and we

have been worrying most about what

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terrorists can do on the streets.

Nick Carter says we are living in a

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new World...

It is an old world,

isn't it?!

Not quite. The old idea

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that you have a state of peace and a

state of war is off the agenda. What

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Graham Allison among other people

have written a very vivid account of

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in the last year or two is that we

have moved into a new world in which

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we are never going to have,

hopefully, we may not have a big war

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but we are very unlikely to have

absolute peace. And we are going to

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be having to cope with all sorts of

threats of different levels.

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Electronic threats, cyber threats,

and also perhaps low-level military

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threats in places like the Baltic

states. Nick Carter said today, you

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said one platoon of boots on the

ground is worth more than a squadron

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of aircraft. At the moment, last

summer, an American general said to

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me, very frankly and bluntly, he

said the British Armed Forces have

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now become so small that they are

not taken seriously by either your

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friends or your enemies. And I said,

I hope the next time that you see

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our Prime Minister, you say that to

her. Americans are often too polite

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to us, they don't tell us what they

are really thinking.

That's the

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scenario, a Russian incursion into

Estonia or something like that where

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we want to be players. Do you agree

we should be able to make a real

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contribution on an occasion like

that was not absolutely. We are

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committed to it through Nato

membership

apart from anything else.

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But it also comes back to a

situation where we can't... The

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public have got to use the wars of

choice. Was in far-away places where

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we have informed debate, we have

debates in Parliament and then we

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decide whether we want to intervene

or not. Wrongly, in my opinion, in

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2013 on Syria, when we should have

intervened. But I don't think the

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public understands that there is

such a thing as a potential European

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theatre. And there is such a thing

as state to state warfare in a way

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that they haven't seen in new

generations.

Quickly, Johnny Mercer,

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do you agree that we need to be able

to deal with that kind of situation.

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I just want to see if you all agree?

The only thing that should define

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the size and strength of the Armed

Forces is the Afri Sarries we are

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against. You could talk about 2%...

You could say, Estonia, we don't

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have to care about it?

That is a

line on the ground, it's the whole

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process of Russian aggression and

what they have done in Ukraine and

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how it has

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how it has manifested itself in

different types of what.

What I want

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to get is how much extra we have to

spend in order to deliver that. We

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are at 2% of GDP. 2.5%, 3%, what is

it?

The chap from America had it

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spot on. That is a signal of intent.

The real question is, what is the

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future of the British Armed Forces?

What do we want from them, what is

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the threat we are up against?

If we

want to go into Estonia and make a

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contribution...

It should be

welcomed that Nick Carter has come

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forward with a light in point of

view that the character of conflict

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has changed, we have to have a

national discussion, because

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taxpayers pay for it ultimately.

I

will come back to you. What do you

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think we need extra to spend?

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The right way round to look at this

is not to say, should it be 1%, 2%,

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we should be saying what can we do

in the New World. We have had

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defence review after defence review,

and they are always a joke. We have

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so many ring fenced areas. I believe

that the Trident nuclear deterrent

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is no longer relevant to the

particular situation we are in. But

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no British political party is

willing to talk about that. Nobody

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is willing to talk about

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is willing to talk about scrapping

the Gurkhas. Until we have a

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realistic defence review in which we

look realistically at the threats

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out there and what we want to

achieve, until we stop playing

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political games, we are not going to

have credible Armed Forces.

Do you

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have an idea? I buy everything USA

in, you need to work out what you're

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going to do. And the Chancellor, you

are the Defence Secretary, how much

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actually do you need, 2 billion, 20

billion?

You need a fairly

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significant chunk extra. It is

impossible to put a figure, but

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there are a couple of things you

could do. You could remove cyber

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from the budget and have a corporate

levy or something like that, because

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our cyber defence capabilities are

used across the board by public

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institutions and things like that,

you could look at the defence review

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and the capabilities that you need,

and then very carefully see where

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you can get the maximum value added.

We have got two aircraft carriers.

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We know that we will never be able

to have task force groups for both

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of them, so we need to think how we

ended up having two. It is done for

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political reasons.

The most

important point in this whole debate

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is this is an attempt, rather brave

attempt, backed by the Defence

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Secretary, to try to get the British

public to look at what is going on

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out there in the world.

He is the

elected MP and has voted to deal

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with. Extra money for the NHS

defence?

The NHS in some ways is

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similar because the challenge

throughout the NHS is changing all

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the time. With defence, it is the

same. The threat is changing. And as

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politicians, we have to meet that.

There is no use having your...

You

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want more money... You want more

money on defence, more money on the

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NHS, you're not going to have extra

borrowing. You need taxes to go up.

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It is not a grown-up question to say

it is got to be the NHS or defence.

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In a grown-up world we have to look

at the whole range of issues facing

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government, and it is what happening

at the moment is that government has

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to become so fixated with the NHS

and social spending that we are not

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thinking nearly hard enough about

security.

But if taxes have to go

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up, they have to go up.

Thank you

all very much indeed.

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Well, having talked about defence,

we can turn to war now -

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as that is where Ukip

finds itself at.

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The leader, Henry Bolton,

is not resigning.

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He came out just after 4pm this

afternoon to tell us that.

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But 14 or 15 of his

senior colleagues -

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we've literally lost count -

have quit their roles

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because they want him to go.

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The party's National Executive

Committee had already voted

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no confidence in him,

but Mr Bolton chose not

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to bow to the pressure,

and instead promised to take

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on the party apparatchiks.

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He said he'd "drain the swamp".

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John Sweeney has been

following today's Ukip developments.

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This happy breed of men, this little

world, this precious stone, is now

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banned in with shame, with inky

blocks and rotten parchment. That

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Ukip, that was want to conquer

others,

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others, hath made a shameful

conquest of itself. Four years ago,

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Ukip won more votes than any other

party in the European elections.

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Eventually forcing David Cameron's

hand to call the Brexit referendum.

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I will go to Parliament and propose

that the British people decide our

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future in Europe through and in/ out

referendum on Thursday the 23rd of

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June.

That one, then Nigel Farage

quit, Diane James was queen of Ukip

0:19:020:19:09

to 18 days, then came Paul Nuttall,

who fell after the party got a

0:19:090:19:14

drubbing in the general election.

Next, Henry Bolton. The former Army

0:19:140:19:19

trooper made a splash when he said

he could kill a badger with his own

0:19:190:19:24

hands. When it came out that he had

left his Russian wife from model

0:19:240:19:27

half his age, that was bad. When she

was found to have tweeted racist

0:19:270:19:32

claptrap about Prince Harry's bride

to be, Meghan Markle, that was bad

0:19:320:19:38

bad. Today Mr Bolton put his foot

down.

I shall respect the next steps

0:19:380:19:46

in the constitutional process, and

will therefore not be resigning as

0:19:460:19:49

party leader. I shall repeat, I will

not be resigning as party leader. It

0:19:490:19:54

is now time to put an end to the

infighting that has been going on

0:19:540:19:58

within the party for some time. And

to remove those who have been part

0:19:580:20:02

of that. In a single phrase, it is

time to drain the swamp.

This swamp

0:20:020:20:09

dwelling disagrees.

I think it is a

foolish decision. I have no reason

0:20:090:20:14

to believe that the party will

support him. In fact, I think he

0:20:140:20:17

will go down to an overwhelming

defeat, which will add further

0:20:170:20:23

humiliation to his recent

experiences. I think it is all very

0:20:230:20:26

sad. We tried the men in grey suits,

perhaps now it is time for the men

0:20:260:20:31

in white coats. He seems to me to

have lost all touch with reality.

0:20:310:20:35

The troubled leader, when looking

for a shoulder to cry on, and

0:20:350:20:39

tonight found anything but.

You have

turned this into a soap opera, and

0:20:390:20:45

in doing so have brought the party

into disrepute.

I wouldn't agree

0:20:450:20:49

with that, Nigel. At the meeting

yesterday, there wasn't one charge

0:20:490:20:53

laid against me apart from that I

had left my wife.

What is Henry

0:20:530:20:58

Bolton do if it all goes wrong next

month?

I'll cross that bridge when I

0:20:580:21:02

come to it. I am still going to be

campaigning solidly. I am not going

0:21:020:21:07

to go away in that respect, no way.

Henry Bolton can't last long, so

0:21:070:21:12

focus returns to the party's once

and perhaps future king. Someone

0:21:120:21:18

once said of Nigel Farage he doesn't

just want to be the bride at the

0:21:180:21:21

wedding but also the corpse at the

funeral. With Ukip going the way it

0:21:210:21:26

is, he may well get his wish.

0:21:260:21:32

Now I'll speak to Suzanne Evans,

former Deputy Chairwoman of Ukip

0:21:320:21:34

and a former leadership candidate

for the party.

0:21:340:21:37

Good evening to you. What happens if

Henry Bolton doesn't go, do you

0:21:370:21:43

think?

I really wish he would, as I

think do the majority of members in

0:21:430:21:52

Ukip. He really has brought the

party into disrepute, and it's not

0:21:520:21:56

just about the fact he left his wife

and very young children, the fact

0:21:560:22:01

that he's taken up with a woman who

is younger than his eldest daughter.

0:22:010:22:06

There is actually a little bit more

to it than that. The membership

0:22:060:22:10

feels very strongly that they've

been misled from the start about the

0:22:100:22:14

nature of this relationship, and NEC

members, too, have pointed out that

0:22:140:22:17

it wasn't just about his personal

life and the chaos that is brought

0:22:170:22:21

to the party, but it is about other

things as well. One NEC member today

0:22:210:22:26

saying it was about his mishandling

of events, his political naivete,

0:22:260:22:31

negligence in his role, Mr deadlines

and political ineptitude. So I

0:22:310:22:37

really do wish he would go, as do

most other people, I think. This

0:22:370:22:40

whole farce that we are now going to

have an emergency general meeting

0:22:400:22:44

which is going to cost time and

money, at which I fear he is going

0:22:440:22:48

to be humiliated, just seems like a

pointless attempt to cling on to

0:22:480:22:53

what, really? He has lost the

support of a robbery.

Why don't you

0:22:530:22:57

leave Ukip has joined the

Conservatives, active interest?

I

0:22:570:23:02

think there is very much a role for

Ukip in public life. I think people

0:23:020:23:06

today have been very keen to try and

say that Ukip's finished, but this

0:23:060:23:11

is its 25th year, and there hasn't

been a single year in which someone

0:23:110:23:15

somewhere hasn't said, Ukip is

finished, it's all over, probably.

0:23:150:23:21

We are still polling above the Green

party. Just last week we had triple

0:23:210:23:25

the Lib Dem vote in a local election

by-election in Bolton. I don't think

0:23:250:23:31

anyone's talking about the demise of

the Lib Dems all the greens.

But you

0:23:310:23:39

don't seem to get on with each

other. I can't find any policy

0:23:390:23:43

difference between you all. It seems

to be totally personal. What is it

0:23:430:23:47

about Ukip people that has made this

party so dysfunctional over the last

0:23:470:23:51

couple of years, do you think?

My

first years in Ukip were actually,

0:23:510:23:57

it was a honeymoon period I suppose

if you like, and I really do trace

0:23:570:24:02

this back to 2015 when Nigel Farage

failed to get elected in Thanet

0:24:020:24:06

South as he desperately wanted to

do, seemed to throw all his toys out

0:24:060:24:10

of the pram. There was this

disastrous

0:24:100:24:19

disastrous resignation and

unresignation which again seemed to

0:24:190:24:25

bring disrepute to the party, and I

think from there it has been

0:24:250:24:28

downhill all the way. And I think it

is a bit rich of Henry to talk about

0:24:280:24:35

kicking and people who have been

involved in infighting, he could

0:24:350:24:38

probably be kicking out quite a few

people including Nigel Farage and

0:24:380:24:42

himself.

It will make a great

episode in the reunion one-day!

0:24:420:24:47

Suzanne, thank you very much indeed.

0:24:470:24:50

There is someone you really

need to know more about.

0:24:500:24:52

He is Olly Robbins, the Prime

Minister's Chief European Advisor.

0:24:520:24:54

Her sherpa, to use

the European language.

0:24:540:24:56

He is a public servant,

and his job is basically

0:24:560:24:59

to help deliver Brexit.

0:24:590:25:00

As far as that's concerned,

you might say he's the second most

0:25:000:25:02

important person in this country

after Theresa May -

0:25:020:25:05

although David Davis

and Boris Johnson might

0:25:050:25:06

beg to differ.

0:25:060:25:07

I suspect if you don't know

Olly Robbins' name already,

0:25:070:25:10

you'll get to hear it this year.

0:25:100:25:11

But don't wait.

0:25:110:25:12

Our Political Editor, Nick Watt,

has been scouting around looking

0:25:120:25:15

at what Mr Robbins is up to.

0:25:150:25:22

Brexit is the most radical change

of direction for this country.

0:25:220:25:28

The idea that any bureaucrat

could be in favour of radical

0:25:280:25:30

change is a nonsense.

0:25:300:25:34

The civil service may well

have its own agenda.

0:25:340:25:36

But ultimately, with

a strong government,

0:25:360:25:38

it should be the Goverment's

will that the civil

0:25:380:25:40

service implements.

0:25:400:25:45

I don't think that, watching him

with three Prime Ministers,

0:25:450:25:47

there'd ever be a moment

that he would be in any way be

0:25:470:25:50

patronising about the fact that he,

you know, has more information

0:25:500:25:53

at his fingertips.

0:25:530:25:55

He's one of the tallest men

in the British Establishment,

0:25:550:25:59

with one of the lowest profiles.

0:25:590:26:03

Yet he wields some of

the greatest powers.

0:26:030:26:05

He's never at the

centre of attention.

0:26:050:26:08

But he's always in the room,

by the Prime Minister's side.

0:26:080:26:12

Olly Robbins, Theresa May's

Chief Adviser on Europe,

0:26:120:26:15

is being dubbed 'the real Brexit

Secretary'.

0:26:150:26:19

Possibly eclipsing David Davis.

0:26:190:26:24

Beyond the world of Whitehall,

most people have no idea

0:26:240:26:26

who Olly Robbins is.

0:26:260:26:31

But, day by day, he is shaping

the nature of Britain's departure

0:26:310:26:34

from the European Union.

0:26:340:26:35

He has the Prime Minister's

ear in Downing Street,

0:26:350:26:38

and he's in the engine room

for the nitty-gritty of the Brexit

0:26:380:26:41

negotiations in Brussels.

0:26:410:26:48

Well, every European Prime Minister

or President has an Olly Robbins.

0:26:530:27:00

Has someone who works closely

with them, whom they trust,

0:27:000:27:02

who is in permanent contact

with all the others.

0:27:020:27:04

These are people who telephone

each other, e-mail each

0:27:040:27:06

other, text each other.

0:27:060:27:11

The actual formal meeting

where we all see people sitting

0:27:110:27:13

around a table for a split second,

that's the tip of the iceberg.

0:27:130:27:21

A recent adviser to Theresa May says

Olly Robbins has a knack of winning

0:27:220:27:25

the confidence of Prime Ministers

and senior mandarins.

0:27:250:27:33

Olly was somebody who really had

the full trust of that team.

0:27:330:27:36

Had the full trust

of the Prime Minister,

0:27:360:27:38

had the full trust of Jeremy Heywood

as well, and was able to really sort

0:27:380:27:41

of on meetings and run meetings

in a way that made the process very

0:27:410:27:45

smooth and very effective,

and probably one of just a few

0:27:450:27:47

officials who actually had that

level of trust and access, I think.

0:27:470:27:55

So, what are the instincts

of the man shepherding us

0:27:570:28:01

through this defining moment

in British history?

0:28:010:28:04

A good starting point

is the place where his worldview

0:28:040:28:06

began to take shape.

0:28:060:28:14

Olly Robbins embarked on the first

steps of what must have looked

0:28:140:28:17

like a classic journey

through the Establishment

0:28:170:28:19

when he studied politics,

philosophy and economics

0:28:190:28:20

here at Oxford in the 1990s.

0:28:200:28:26

But there's a twist.

0:28:260:28:28

He chose Hertford College, which,

despite the wooden panelling,

0:28:280:28:30

has pioneered a much more

inclusive admissions policy.

0:28:300:28:37

An Oxford contemporary who later

worked with Olly Robbins

0:28:370:28:39

in Downing Street had an inkling

he would go far.

0:28:390:28:45

Even at university, it was already

clear that this was a guy

0:28:450:28:48

who was going to make a success

of whatever he did.

0:28:480:28:51

I think it was fair to say he's

the sort of person you'd be more

0:28:510:28:55

likely to see in tweed

than in a football kit.

0:28:550:28:59

You know, but that phenomenal brain

was very much there.

0:28:590:29:01

But also that sense of humour.

0:29:010:29:09

The intellectual clout of this

modern college in an ancient setting

0:29:100:29:13

was shown when Olly Robbins

and three other graduates

0:29:130:29:15

of Hertford controlled intelligence

at the heart of Whitehall.

0:29:150:29:17

The Hertford Gang say it was

a conspiracy that never existed.

0:29:170:29:20

I've spoken to one Tory Brexiteer

who went to a grander Oxford

0:29:200:29:25

college, and is wary of Olly

Robbins.

0:29:250:29:33

"They're all commie geographers",

this Tory told me of

0:29:350:29:37

the Hertford College alumni.

0:29:370:29:40

Brexiteers were delighted when it

emerged that at Oxford,

0:29:400:29:43

the young Olly Robbins had written

that the Soviet Union

0:29:430:29:45

wasn't all bad.

0:29:450:29:53

I understand that David Davis,

the actual Brexit Secretary,

0:29:530:29:56

who has something of a prickly

relationship with Olly Robbins,

0:29:560:30:01

has a habit of opening meetings

with him by welcoming colleagues

0:30:010:30:04

to the Olly Robbins People's Soviet.

0:30:040:30:08

Everyone reportedly has a chuckle.

0:30:080:30:12

But some Leave ministers

are suspicious of him,

0:30:120:30:14

and regard him as a classic civil

servant who sees Brexit is a crisis

0:30:140:30:17

to be managed rather

than an opportunity to be seized.

0:30:170:30:23

I was, as you know, a member

of the Thatcher government.

0:30:230:30:26

We came in and introduced a radical

change in economic policy.

0:30:260:30:29

And all the officials were aghast.

0:30:290:30:30

They thought it would be a disaster.

0:30:300:30:34

But at that time we had a strong

Cabinet, led by an outstanding

0:30:340:30:37

Prime Minister, and they accepted

the leadership, the

0:30:370:30:39

political leadership,

as is constitutional duty.

0:30:390:30:47

If a soft Brexit is being

negotiated, it must be

0:30:490:30:52

the will of the Prime Minister

and her Cabinet.

0:30:520:30:54

How can we possibly be

in a position where the Cabinet

0:30:540:30:57

and the Prime Minister has a certain

direction and the Civil Service

0:30:570:30:59

is taking it a different way?

0:30:590:31:02

That surely is a sign

of a weak government.

0:31:020:31:10

Olly Robbins fears that

the Cabinet Brexiteers,

0:31:130:31:16

notably Michael Gove

and Boris Johnson, are on his case.

0:31:160:31:20

He worked hard to win

them over in the run-up

0:31:200:31:22

to the Prime Minister's EU speech

in Florence last September,

0:31:220:31:25

making changes on the way.

0:31:250:31:30

But in the tense week in December

when the phase one Brexit

0:31:300:31:33

negotiation deal appeared to be

on the verge of collapse,

0:31:330:31:35

there was some frustration

in the Cabinet Office that those

0:31:350:31:38

ministers were less supportive.

0:31:380:31:43

Well, I think, inevitably,

because of the role that Boris

0:31:430:31:46

and Michael played during the Leave

campaign, clearly they are big

0:31:460:31:48

figures who need to be part of this

process and brought into it.

0:31:480:31:51

And from what I've seen,

I think Olly deals with them

0:31:510:31:54

and their offices very effectively.

0:31:540:31:55

And again, brings a level

of diplomacy to the whole thing.

0:31:550:32:03

Deep in the basement of the Guardian

newspaper lies one final clue

0:32:080:32:11

to the character of Olly Robbins.

0:32:110:32:13

Ruthlessness tinged

with impeccable manners.

0:32:130:32:14

Angle grinders and drills

were wielded by senior Guardian

0:32:140:32:22

editors to destroy files which had

been leaked to them

0:32:240:32:27

by Edward Snowden.

0:32:270:32:30

Olly Robbins had issued a stern

warning to the Guardian

0:32:300:32:32

that its continued possession

of the files marked a threat

0:32:320:32:35

to national security.

0:32:350:32:40

He brokered a deal where the files

were sawn to bits in an operation

0:32:400:32:43

supervised by Government agents.

0:32:430:32:46

"Punctiliously polite"

was the Guardian verdict

0:32:460:32:48

on their Whitehall adversary.

0:32:480:32:54

So, a consummate Whitehall operator

with experience in the smoke

0:32:540:32:56

and mirrors world of intelligence

is guiding the Brexit process.

0:32:560:32:59

But in his mind, the painful

business of cutting deals and making

0:32:590:33:02

compromises lies in the hands

of his political controller.

0:33:020:33:10

Nick Wood what is with me. It was

interesting to hear Lord Lawson --

0:33:220:33:28

Nick Watt. He is so wary of the

civil service's role, their mindset

0:33:280:33:34

and ability to thwart all of this.

Civil servants were frustrated

0:33:340:33:37

because it goes against the grain,

but those remarks have clearly

0:33:370:33:42

struck a raw nerve in Whitehall,

because the Cabinet Secretary Sir

0:33:420:33:46

Jeremy Heywood has this evening

rally to the defence of the civil

0:33:460:33:49

service. He doesn't speak out that

much, but he issued a statement the

0:33:490:33:54

Newsnight after the comments by Lord

Lawson about the civil service in

0:33:540:33:59

general. Sir Jeremy says the civil

service take great pride in

0:33:590:34:04

supporting the elected government of

the day, and the mission is to

0:34:040:34:08

deliver Brexit. He says the civil

service is putting enormous effort,

0:34:080:34:12

and many of its very best people

into making a success of the

0:34:120:34:16

project, that is Brexit. He says,

interestingly, it is being tested on

0:34:160:34:21

a daily basis and I'm very proud of

what we have so far delivered.

OK,

0:34:210:34:27

it is a sensitive point, but the

civil service strikes back. Nick,

0:34:270:34:31

thank you very much.

0:34:310:34:33

Now, have a look at these images.

0:34:330:34:34

These show something pretty everyday

in parts of Africa: a woman kneeling

0:34:340:34:37

at the feet of an elder.

0:34:370:34:40

It is a traditional way in some

cultures of a woman showing respect.

0:34:400:34:43

In some, you might find men doing

the same, but it's not as common.

0:34:430:34:46

Now, of course, for years this kind

of greeting has been taken

0:34:460:34:49

for granted in certain African

cultures, just as curtseying

0:34:490:34:51

to the Queen is here.

But we now live in a globalised era,

0:34:510:34:54

where news, culture

and people travel.

0:34:540:34:56

And clearly, from a Western

perspective, kneeling can be seen

0:34:560:34:58

as an undignified reminder

of women's low social status imposed

0:34:580:35:03

by a male-run society.

0:35:030:35:05

So, it was just a matter

of time before the practice

0:35:050:35:08

came to be challenged.

0:35:080:35:08

And it was the Head

of Oxfam International,

0:35:080:35:10

Winnie Byanyima, who was born

in Uganda but lives in Britain,

0:35:100:35:14

who sparked a row about it,

tweeting, "How do we stop

0:35:140:35:17

this humiliating practice?"

0:35:170:35:20

Well, this may sound like just

another debate about gender

0:35:200:35:22

and identity politics,

but it cuts across the usual lines.

0:35:220:35:25

For some, Byanyima is

speaking up for women.

0:35:250:35:29

For others, she's disrespectful

of the cultural heritage

0:35:290:35:32

of the African societies

that practice kneeling.

0:35:320:35:34

I'm joined by Dami Olonisakin

and Nicky Olatubosun.

0:35:340:35:39

I am joined by two women from

cultures where kneeling is common.

0:35:390:35:44

Dami, tell us about the kneeling,

when do you kneel, or what form does

0:35:440:35:49

the kneeling cakes, why do you

kneel?

Kneeling is a form of

0:35:490:35:53

respect. When you greet someone who

is older than you, you do this to a

0:35:530:35:58

family, you do this to relatives. It

is a very popular part of Yoruba

0:35:580:36:04

culture within Nigeria. It is

something that both men and women

0:36:040:36:07

do. It is not just one-sided. It's

something that everybody does.

It is

0:36:070:36:15

actually your need touching the

ground, it is not just bending down.

0:36:150:36:19

It can be, depending on how old the

person is, the last time you saw

0:36:190:36:24

them, if it was someone quite close

to you.

The further down you go, the

0:36:240:36:28

more respect?

You could definitely

say that, yes.

I understand, Nicky,

0:36:280:36:34

that of course men and women do do

it. But it is a gender element or

0:36:340:36:39

not?

Personally I feel like it is to

do with both genders. Men are

0:36:390:36:44

supposed to prostrate, my done on

the ground, and women are supposed

0:36:440:36:48

in Neil Stubley but the men don't

always prostrate themselves. No,

0:36:480:36:53

they don't.

It is no different to

how women gently bend down

0:36:530:36:57

sometimes. I feel like as long as

you are signalling that type of

0:36:570:37:02

respect, you are still acknowledging

that somebody is older than you and

0:37:020:37:05

your store greeting them. Nobody is

asking you to plank on the floor!

0:37:050:37:10

The traditional serving your

husband's meal, how does that go,

0:37:100:37:13

Nicky?

You are meant to hold it out

to him like he is a king.

That

0:37:130:37:22

sounds like quite a gender thing.

Most definitely, especially within

0:37:220:37:27

Nigeria and culture, we believe that

the man is the head of the house,

0:37:270:37:30

but it is not necessarily something

that all cultures do.

It is

0:37:300:37:38

interesting and complicated. Nicky,

you are not keen on it and think it

0:37:380:37:41

is past its sell by date.

Well,

basically... I feel like I shouldn't

0:37:410:37:46

have the kneel down, like, I

understand, OK, it's about the

0:37:460:37:50

respect part of it. I'm respecting

my elders. I feel like you can be

0:37:500:37:55

verbally respectful. I can do a new

balance, a Coetzee, I shouldn't have

0:37:550:37:59

the kneel on the ground to greet

you. Especially when my parents

0:37:590:38:03

don't

0:38:030:38:10

don't require it. -- a curtsy. I

shouldn't have to kneel down to

0:38:100:38:12

someone else.

You know, I feel like

in different cultures all over the

0:38:120:38:15

world there are different ways that

we use nonverbal actions to display

0:38:150:38:17

a form of greeting, I don't feel it

should be scrapped. It has been done

0:38:170:38:20

for centuries. Just being able to

greet someone who is older than you.

0:38:200:38:24

In my culture...

I feel like it

should be more of a formal thing

0:38:240:38:28

rather than informal as well. Every

time you see someone, you are meant

0:38:280:38:32

to greet them that we.

You would

reserve it for state occasions,

0:38:320:38:37

weddings, things like that.

If you

came to a traditional wedding, if I

0:38:370:38:42

was marrying a you read the man, I

would kneel down for his parents as

0:38:420:38:46

required. -- eight you read the man.

We have changed lots of things in

0:38:460:38:50

the world...

That's the thing, you

can really compare other things the

0:38:500:38:56

kneeling down, that is problematic.

Tribal marking is automatic, and we

0:38:560:39:01

acknowledge that. Showing respect by

kneeling down to someone is showing

0:39:010:39:05

that you come from a good

background, when you are doing it,

0:39:050:39:09

we are thinking, your parents have

raised you write. It is a reflection

0:39:090:39:13

of your upbringing. That is how

Yoruba people see it.

If you don't

0:39:130:39:21

do it, do people think you are being

disrespectful?

I have never come

0:39:210:39:24

across that. I don't believe in

kneeling down, I honestly don't, my

0:39:240:39:29

mum doesn't require it of my friends

and people she meets, therefore I

0:39:290:39:32

don't feel that I should have two.

Thanks for giving us an insight into

0:39:320:39:36

the debate about it.

0:39:360:39:37

That's it for tonight.

0:39:370:39:38

We end with proof that Germans

are not after all a nation

0:39:380:39:41

of humourless engineers.

0:39:410:39:42

They are, it seems, a nation

of very silly engineers.

0:39:420:39:45

So we leave with the alleged

creation of Johannes

0:39:450:39:47

and Phillip Mickenbecker

- the bathcopter.

0:39:470:39:48

Goodnight.

0:39:480:39:51

WHIRRING SOUND.

0:39:510:39:58

MUSIC: Mars Theme by Nick Cave.

0:40:000:40:03

# We're coming in too fast and.

0:40:030:40:06

# Everyone is burning bright

0:40:060:40:09

# 182 seconds, baby

0:40:160:40:18

# And heaven is a trick of the light

0:40:180:40:21

# We're coming in too fast,

and

0:40:300:40:33

# Heaven is a trance unknown #.

0:40:330:40:36

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