31/01/2018 Newsnight


31/01/2018

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines with Evan Davis.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 31/01/2018. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

He might have thought out sourcing

public services did not work for the

0:00:110:00:16

taxpayer, but another profit warning

shows it may be doesn't work for

0:00:160:00:21

private companies either.

Capita

says it needs to streamline its

0:00:210:00:23

business and get it debt down, the

latest in a spate of knocks to the

0:00:230:00:28

whole outsourcing industry. We'll

take a long hard look at when

0:00:280:00:33

outsourcing helps and when it should

be avoided.

0:00:330:00:36

After decades of horrific violence

in Afghanistan the International

0:00:360:00:40

criminal Court is considering a war

crimes investigation. But could

0:00:400:00:45

justice, much like peace, proved

elusive in this war-torn country?

0:00:450:00:51

They don't want what

is sometimes called

0:00:510:00:53

low hanging fruit, basically.

0:00:530:00:54

The foot soldiers who carry out,

most directly, the nasty activities.

0:00:540:00:57

So you've got to apprehend those

people, and that's not so

0:00:570:00:59

straightforward.

0:00:590:01:05

And should we require

explicit consent before sex?

0:01:050:01:07

A new app seems to think so.

0:01:070:01:09

We'll talk to a barrister

about what consent is,

0:01:090:01:11

and how we get it.

0:01:110:01:14

Hello there.

0:01:340:01:35

Has outsourcing had its day?

0:01:350:01:36

For decades now, it has been

a mantra within government,

0:01:360:01:38

that virtually any activity is best

put out to the market -

0:01:380:01:41

running trains, prisons,

construction projects, anything.

0:01:410:01:43

For a long time, some have

thought that the private

0:01:430:01:45

contractors coin it in,

at the expense of the workers,

0:01:450:01:48

and the taxpayers.

0:01:480:01:49

But the news that a huge

private contractor, Capita,

0:01:490:01:51

has had to make a profit warning,

and has seen its share

0:01:510:01:54

price plummet today,

weeks after Carillion went bust,

0:01:540:01:56

raises the question -

does sub-contracting

0:01:560:01:57

work for anybody at all?

0:01:570:01:58

Capita is in a different place

to Carillion, it is taking action

0:01:580:02:01

that Carillion didn't,

to prevent itself becoming another

0:02:010:02:03

sad business casualty,

but it's problems are just

0:02:030:02:05

the latest to lead to a rethink

about the activity on the border

0:02:050:02:08

of the public and private sectors.

0:02:080:02:10

These are difficult times

for believers in the private

0:02:100:02:12

delivery of public services.

0:02:120:02:15

It's not just the demise

of Carillion, other contracting

0:02:150:02:18

companies face financial challenges.

0:02:180:02:20

Train franchises

are struggling, too.

0:02:200:02:28

Virgin Stagecoach pulling out

of its east coast contract.

0:02:310:02:33

In Haringey, the Labour council has

been rocked by division over

0:02:330:02:36

a public private partnership

for redeveloping social housing

0:02:360:02:38

and other public assets.

0:02:380:02:39

Is the game up for contracting?

0:02:390:02:40

These corporations, Mr Speaker,

need to be shown the door.

0:02:400:02:42

We need our public services

provided by Public employees

0:02:420:02:45

with a public service ethos,

and a strong public oversight.

0:02:450:02:53

It is commonly framed as binary.

0:02:530:02:56

Private sector, all good or all bad.

0:02:560:03:00

But in reality, when you think

of all the things that go

0:03:000:03:03

on inside an organisation,

it's an argument about

0:03:030:03:05

where you draw a line.

0:03:050:03:07

The line between what

you buy in from outside

0:03:070:03:09

and what you keep in-house.

0:03:090:03:12

It applies as much in the private

sector as the public.

0:03:120:03:14

Some areas are relatively clear-cut.

0:03:140:03:17

Few organisations will want

to maintain their own lifts.

0:03:170:03:20

It's a specialist task,

lift servicing companies will likely

0:03:200:03:23

be better at lift maintenance.

0:03:230:03:28

Unless you're a lift company,

lift maintenance is not your thing,

0:03:280:03:30

so it's one to contract out.

0:03:300:03:33

Government should absolutely

consider outsourcing in instances

0:03:330:03:38

where the thing that it wants to buy

is already being bought

0:03:380:03:40

by lots of other people.

0:03:400:03:45

So particularly if that's

goods like, you know,

0:03:450:03:47

pencils, or even catering,

a service but lots

0:03:470:03:49

of people are buying.

0:03:490:03:51

Similarly if it's really easy

to measure the performance then

0:03:510:03:54

Government is going to be able

to have a good idea whether or not

0:03:540:03:58

the provider it is paying has

delivered that service well.

0:03:580:04:01

And similarly, is there going to be

any reputation risk for Government?

0:04:010:04:04

In those instances Government should

absolutely be looking to outsource.

0:04:040:04:07

Sometimes you need

private expertise.

0:04:070:04:11

When Ken Livingstone introduced

a congestion charge to London

0:04:110:04:13

it was a formidable logistical task.

0:04:130:04:14

Capita made it happen.

0:04:140:04:22

And another advantage

was that Capita could be

0:04:230:04:25

penalised for any screw ups,

of which there were a few.

0:04:250:04:28

Risk was transferred.

0:04:280:04:29

But what about core activities?

0:04:290:04:30

Do we expect Government to outsource

the role of Government?

0:04:300:04:38

The big questions are about

the delivery of complex services,

0:04:380:04:40

so whether it's prisons,

or probation, or adoption,

0:04:400:04:42

Government is the only organisation

buying those services.

0:04:420:04:47

And there's not a proper market,

it's really difficult

0:04:470:04:50

to measure performance,

and if they go wrong the

0:04:500:04:53

Government's likely to get blamed.

0:04:530:04:54

I think that is where

the debate needs to be

0:04:540:04:57

about whether outsourcing

is right or not.

0:04:570:05:00

One challenge is that contracts

are hard to draw up and monitor.

0:05:000:05:08

You can argue about the definition

of an egg in a catering

0:05:090:05:12

contract if you want to.

0:05:120:05:14

The second challenge

is the companies which win

0:05:140:05:16

contracts are often the ones

who bid unrealistically.

0:05:160:05:18

With awkward consequences.

0:05:180:05:19

Firstly, Government is focused

on price rather than quality,

0:05:190:05:21

or value for money.

0:05:210:05:26

And as a result these firms bid very

low, but have become quite

0:05:260:05:29

overstretched and fragile,

which means they are more

0:05:290:05:31

likely to collapse.

0:05:310:05:32

The second problem is that

Government has not put a huge amount

0:05:320:05:35

of work into overseeing and managing

these contracts well.

0:05:350:05:40

Which means that when these

organisations do collapse Government

0:05:400:05:44

is often taken unawares,

or doesn't have anything set up

0:05:440:05:46

to pick up the pieces.

0:05:460:05:48

So is it less a question

about public or private

0:05:480:05:50

being better, and more a question

of how effectively each

0:05:500:05:53

manages the other?

0:05:530:05:54

I'm now joined by Professor Mariana

Mazzucato, Director of the Institute

0:05:540:05:57

for Innovation and Public Purpose

at UCL, and Julian Glover,

0:05:570:05:59

who is Associate Editor

of the Evening Standard and formerly

0:05:590:06:02

advised David Cameron's

government on transport.

0:06:020:06:09

Good evening. We can start with

where it goes wrong. What would you

0:06:090:06:20

highlight where outsourcing goes

wrong?

We use this word partnership.

0:06:200:06:24

Where it goes wrong is we don't

define what a good partnership. If

0:06:240:06:27

you talk to a biologist they would

say ecosystems candy

0:06:270:06:36

say ecosystems candy parasitic or

bionic. We can change the contracts.

0:06:360:06:40

There has also been this

self-effacing prophecy that the more

0:06:400:06:42

we outsource the brains of

Government to the public sector,

0:06:420:06:47

there has also been a lower

tolerance on it. You make it

0:06:470:07:01

conditional in terms of increasing

the quality. You should also

0:07:010:07:05

maintain direction. You should have

a sense of what kind of system you

0:07:050:07:07

want.

You would keep the strategy

in-house?

Yes.

And you want the

0:07:070:07:14

brains to be able to buy the

services in-house?

Yes, but there is

0:07:140:07:18

also a question of profits. The

recent debate has been that these

0:07:180:07:20

companies are not profitable. Often

when they are not profitable, the

0:07:200:07:25

question is, is there a risk reward

relationship? There should be. They

0:07:250:07:31

are not taking risks. They are often

assuming that the public sector

0:07:310:07:35

continues to actually take on both

in the beginning the high-level

0:07:350:07:38

risk, but also then bails them out

when things go wrong. Often the

0:07:380:07:42

reward, even when it is there, is

not actually justified.

Julian, you

0:07:420:07:47

are in the Department for Transport.

You had all of those problems with

0:07:470:07:52

the East Coast and West Coast

franchises. Trying to write a

0:07:520:07:55

contract for something that would be

run by the public.

A lot of the

0:07:550:08:03

problems of these contracts in

different areas are linking to the

0:08:030:08:07

Government. The capability of

Government knowing what it has to be

0:08:070:08:10

to be a good customer. If you want a

hospital run in one place without

0:08:100:08:15

any changes, long period of time, it

isn't a bad idea to sign a lock in

0:08:150:08:19

contract for that period. Trouble

is, a few years and you decide to

0:08:190:08:23

shift. If you hand over a motorway

to the private sector, the public

0:08:230:08:29

sector has done a good job with the

makers, but as soon as you make a

0:08:290:08:34

choice it's an issue. The Government

doesn't know what it wants. It

0:08:340:08:37

changes its mind. Doing things with

a private contract is a good idea.

0:08:370:08:41

But you wanted diversity -- but you

want a big diversity. Government

0:08:410:08:50

centralising decisions will always

be difficult. When things were just

0:08:500:08:53

run through the centre, when it took

three months to get a telephone

0:08:530:08:56

through the post office, that wasn't

good. Direct organisations didn't

0:08:560:08:58

have a good reputation of

maintaining and building houses.

0:08:580:09:03

Outsourcing is the problem, it is

knowing what you want.

But they

0:09:030:09:10

underbid. Virgin stagecoach underbid

for the East Coast Railway and they

0:09:100:09:15

couldn't make it work.

They overbid.

They were running things well.

0:09:150:09:20

Passenger satisfaction figures came

out, 90% for virgin route on the

0:09:200:09:25

east coast. The people losing out is

the company, which is burning

0:09:250:09:29

through its bond on East Coast. They

had to pay a lot of money to win the

0:09:290:09:33

contract.

But they race to get the

contract. They win the contract.

0:09:330:09:37

They have been overgenerous. Then

they are strapped trying to make up

0:09:370:09:42

the money on the little changes to

the contract.

I fundamentally

0:09:420:09:46

disagree with the point that

Government is inevitably almost,

0:09:460:09:50

because of its DNA, a bad client, or

isn't going to be deficient. That is

0:09:500:09:54

what you are saying. That is part of

the problem. An ideological problem.

0:09:540:09:59

There are many periods in history

where Government has functioned

0:09:590:10:02

extremely well. It has been both

ambitious, bold, and efficient. And

0:10:020:10:06

other periods come in recent

history, it hasn't been. That's not

0:10:060:10:10

just because things have changed.

I

disagree.

There has been a narrative

0:10:100:10:16

which has often convinced, also

civil servants themselves, that

0:10:160:10:19

Government failures are even worse

than market failures. So, the gavel,

0:10:190:10:23

don't explore, don't take risks,

don't invest. When you start

0:10:230:10:27

investing, the machinery of

Government, it also going to be

0:10:270:10:31

quite hard...

I spent five years

working in the Department for

0:10:310:10:35

Transport. Working on projects.

Trying to get things happening. I

0:10:350:10:38

didn't find that culture. I found a

lot of investment from the Treasury,

0:10:380:10:42

not just borrowed money. Most things

happened before 2010, things like

0:10:420:10:50

the M25, signed by the Labour Party,

lots of the rail contracts, as well.

0:10:500:10:53

The enthusiasm was for the

Government to spend money and do

0:10:530:10:56

things. But you cannot...

But you

have to have the capacity. Capacity

0:10:560:11:02

is the result of investment...

I

believe in a diversity of places

0:11:020:11:06

doing interesting things. I worry

about the idea. I sat on the fourth

0:11:060:11:10

floor, very good people, I worry

about them being in charge of

0:11:100:11:14

everything and planning everything.

Would you go down the journey Corbyn

0:11:140:11:18

route? And say, what is wrong with

bringing this or in-house, we don't

0:11:180:11:24

need private sector involvement in

the NHS, we don't need private

0:11:240:11:26

people redeveloping our council

houses, let's do it differently?

No.

0:11:260:11:33

What you should be doing is thinking

about the problem at hand, which is

0:11:330:11:35

very different to the Department for

Transport. Getting the different

0:11:350:11:40

people at the table. The public

sector should be there directing the

0:11:400:11:44

show when we are talking about

public services. If the private

0:11:440:11:47

sector does want a bit of the game

it has proved capable first. It has

0:11:470:11:53

to have capacity itself. We are

often talking about public sector

0:11:530:11:57

capacity. But from the recent

examples there is a inefficiency.

0:11:570:12:01

But also what kind of risks they

will take morte kind of investments,

0:12:010:12:05

getting the contract and the deal is

right which will produce public

0:12:050:12:10

value. That is what they should be

fighting for.

There has been an

0:12:100:12:17

argument about Haringey. The

redevelopment. Do you have an

0:12:170:12:21

opinion on that?

Note.

CHUCKLES

0:12:210:12:23

Julian, would you go far with the

more ideological right-wing approach

0:12:230:12:29

that says Government is a very good,

carry on, carry on sub contracting

0:12:290:12:32

as far as we have been?

I would go

both directions. Government should

0:12:320:12:38

be involved in some areas, and more

controlling, maybe suburban transit.

0:12:380:12:42

But don't forget the overground

railway in North and East London

0:12:420:12:45

which everybody loves is a myriad of

private contracts working together.

0:12:450:12:48

But well specified contracts because

they are directed. In other areas

0:12:480:12:55

there should be more competition,

less state direction. We shouldn't

0:12:550:12:58

assume all of the activities that

the state has some guided, moral

0:12:580:13:04

principle. The danger of thinking

any private activity is somehow not

0:13:040:13:07

as well-meaning for the public good

as something...

But there is a

0:13:070:13:13

complete lack transparency...

A

group of people doing things for the

0:13:130:13:18

growing interest can enhance things

for the well-being is a good thing

0:13:180:13:24

for Government.

We have the

performance targets, the efficiency

0:13:240:13:27

gains of all of the different public

sector activities. Carillion,

0:13:270:13:34

capita, they have refused to provide

the data. We should get them to

0:13:340:13:38

provide the data.

Point made. Thank

you both.

0:13:380:13:44

BBC management took something

of a pummelling today at a hearing

0:13:440:13:46

of a committee of MPs.

0:13:460:13:48

Pay is the issue, but when

Carrie Gracie spoke to the MPs

0:13:480:13:50

about her experience -

remember she had resigned as China

0:13:500:13:53

editor as a protest at the lack

of pay equality with male

0:13:530:13:56

counterparts - the issue was not

just money but the conduct

0:13:560:13:58

of the BBC as an employer.

0:13:580:14:00

Our business editor Helen Thomas

watched the proceedings -

0:14:000:14:02

as did a lot of other people

in this building.

0:14:020:14:09

The BBC resisted publishing

the salaries of its top-paid staff.

0:14:090:14:15

Today, the corporation's management,

pay and culture was picked over

0:14:150:14:19

in the most public of settings.

0:14:190:14:23

I have said I don't

want any more money.

0:14:230:14:26

I'm not a fiscal

liability to the BBC.

0:14:260:14:29

This trying to throw money at me

to resolve the problem...

0:14:290:14:32

This will not resolve my problem.

0:14:320:14:34

My problem will be resolved

by an acknowledgement that my work

0:14:340:14:36

was of equal value to the men

who I served alongside

0:14:360:14:41

as an international editor.

0:14:410:14:43

We have a toxic work atmosphere.

0:14:430:14:44

It is going to get worse.

0:14:440:14:46

We have women leaving.

0:14:460:14:47

The credibility of management

is diminished and damaged.

0:14:470:14:51

You know, they are stumbling

towards a kind of Greek tragedy

0:14:510:14:54

where they make happen

of their own worst fears.

0:14:540:14:57

We are not in the business

of producing toothpaste

0:14:570:15:01

or tyres at the BBC.

0:15:010:15:03

Our business is truth.

0:15:030:15:04

We can't operate without the truth.

0:15:040:15:07

If we're not prepared to look

at ourselves honestly,

0:15:070:15:10

how can we be trusted to look

at anything else?

0:15:100:15:13

I need to be there alongside

the other great BBC women,

0:15:130:15:17

also belittled,

their work also marginalised,

0:15:170:15:21

helping the BBC to sort it out,

and the BBC management need to

0:15:210:15:24

stop treating us as

some kind of enemy,

0:15:240:15:27

putting up a kind of fortress

with the Emperor and his sons

0:15:270:15:29

behind the fortress wall.

0:15:290:15:31

No.

0:15:310:15:32

This is a BBC that

belongs to all of us.

0:15:320:15:37

BBC bosses stressed their commitment

to equality, and their plans

0:15:370:15:40

for an improved approach.

0:15:400:15:45

The equality, and equality

particularly with women,

0:15:450:15:50

has been something I've felt very,

very strongly about

0:15:500:15:53

and wanted to fix.

0:15:530:15:56

So, how is it possible,

when there is only five

0:15:560:15:58

international editors,

for one to be inadvertently

0:15:580:16:00

underpaid for years?

0:16:000:16:01

Well, the answer is, that's wrong.

0:16:010:16:04

Yes, but how is it possible?

0:16:040:16:05

It's not like there are hundreds

all round the world and you

0:16:050:16:08

lose track of who's doing what.

0:16:080:16:10

What we are doing, going forward,

is saying we want to make sure

0:16:100:16:13

that we keep these things regularly

under review, we're upfront

0:16:130:16:15

about it, so that we don't get

the point where the band

0:16:150:16:18

between someone who is a low pay

editor, if we are taking

0:16:180:16:21

the editor's say, and the top pay

editor is not justifiable.

0:16:210:16:24

The purpose of approvals has been

very much about controlling cost,

0:16:240:16:30

not about ensuring equality

or ensuring fairness,

0:16:300:16:34

and that's been a mistake.

0:16:340:16:38

Was there anybody, then,

responsible for looking

0:16:380:16:41

at the equity across people's pay?

0:16:410:16:47

I think that would have

been done within news.

0:16:470:16:49

So who...

0:16:490:16:50

And I think we're accepting that it

wasn't done within news.

0:16:500:16:53

Is there any differential

which is justifiable?

0:16:530:16:56

We think there is, and I think

that this is based on...

0:16:560:17:02

Obviously not based

on gender at all.

0:17:020:17:06

It's based on the status of the job,

how often it's on the air,

0:17:060:17:12

how interested the audience are.

0:17:120:17:15

Straight ahead, please.

0:17:150:17:18

BBC management spoke

about their detailed plans

0:17:180:17:21

to do things better.

0:17:210:17:24

How they intend to address

the specific grievances

0:17:240:17:27

of BBC women was less clear.

0:17:270:17:33

Helen is with me now.

0:17:330:17:40

Helen, dramatic testimony, actually.

People were absolutely gripped by

0:17:400:17:46

it. Did we have much news from

Carrie Gracie?

We did. It was

0:17:460:17:55

dramatic, emotional, passionate. She

says she's been offered nearly

0:17:550:18:00

£100,000 in back pay. She'd been

told she'd been inadvertently

0:18:000:18:05

underpaid. She had a lower salary

for her first three years... Years

0:18:050:18:10

as China editor because she was in

development. As a very experienced

0:18:100:18:18

China editor, you could see that

grated. She talked about a breakdown

0:18:180:18:23

in trust and BBC management, and she

was hinting at a collective

0:18:230:18:28

blindness or incompetence in the

management of this issue, and

0:18:280:18:33

overall how the BBC treats some of

its staff. She was saying she wants

0:18:330:18:37

to stand up and fight for some more

junior women who perhaps can't.

The

0:18:370:18:43

BBC pre-empted a lot of this, coming

out with their own report and doing

0:18:430:18:48

interviews yesterday. Did we learn

much news from the BBC's answer to

0:18:480:18:52

their questions?

I think the main

message was, yes, there may have

0:18:520:18:57

been mistakes in individual cases,

but there was no systemic gender

0:18:570:19:03

discrimination, and that the BBC's

processes and framework around pay

0:19:030:19:09

are being totally overhauled. We got

clarity on one thing. In management

0:19:090:19:15

size, the jobs of China editor and

north America editor are not

0:19:150:19:20

directly equivalent, so they should

not necessarily be paid the same,

0:19:200:19:23

but as you heard, in some cases the

disparity in these jobs had got too

0:19:230:19:29

large.

An interesting question is

how many employers, what sectors,

0:19:290:19:35

have so many people whose pay is set

by individual negotiation and

0:19:350:19:39

discretion on the part of managers,

as opposed to people on a scale

0:19:390:19:45

where the pay kind of sick is a

structure.

I think this industry is

0:19:450:19:51

kind of unusual, but a lot of

industries will be looking at this

0:19:510:19:54

and how it is handled. Certainly

other media companies, but sectors

0:19:540:20:00

where there is discretion over

bonuses, flexibility over how you

0:20:000:20:04

retain people, pay hikes or invented

job titles to justify them. I think

0:20:040:20:11

there are lessons for companies

everywhere. One is that your gender

0:20:110:20:16

pay gap, that percentage figure,

tells you very little about this

0:20:160:20:20

other issue, which is equal pay for

people in the same jobs. A lawyer

0:20:200:20:24

said to me this week that we are

moving towards a world with more pay

0:20:240:20:30

transparency, and many companies

will be thinking, how confident am I

0:20:300:20:35

that my handle on relative pay would

stand up to a bit more scrutiny?

0:20:350:20:40

Thank you.

0:20:400:20:42

What's the economic

effect of Brexit?

0:20:420:20:43

There is an official assessment -

it's made the news in the last two

0:20:430:20:47

days, as it was leaked to the online

news service Buzzfeed, and it offers

0:20:470:20:50

a Whitehall view of the economic

effects of different Brexit

0:20:500:20:52

scenarios - all negative compared

to staying in the EU.

0:20:520:20:55

An awkward conclusion.

0:20:550:20:56

The government has experimented

with different ways

0:20:560:20:57

of trying to shrug it off.

0:20:570:20:59

One response was -

"Those civil servants -

0:20:590:21:01

they get up to all sorts

of mischief".

0:21:010:21:03

Then, "It's just preliminary

and incomplete,

0:21:030:21:04

move along, nothing to see".

0:21:040:21:05

But - after saying that they

wouldn't publish the analysis,

0:21:050:21:08

today the government

said they would.

0:21:080:21:09

Let me start with

the terms of the motion.

0:21:090:21:11

We will provide the analysis

to the Select Committee

0:21:110:21:14

for exiting the European Union,

and all members, on a strictly

0:21:140:21:16

confidential basis.

0:21:160:21:17

This means we will provide a hard

copy of the analysis to the chair

0:21:170:21:21

of the EU Select Committee,

and a confidential reading room

0:21:210:21:25

will be available

to all members and peers

0:21:250:21:28

to see a copy of this analysis once

those arrangements can be made.

0:21:280:21:35

Well, that may or may not change

people's minds when it comes -

0:21:350:21:38

but without waiting,

we now have a little more

0:21:380:21:40

from the leaked document.

0:21:400:21:41

Buzzfeed have released a line

on what it says about the estimated

0:21:410:21:44

effect of reducing EU immigration.

0:21:440:21:48

Alberto Nardelli, Buzzfeed's Europe

Editor, is with us -

0:21:480:21:50

he received the leaked document.

0:21:500:21:58

So what is the line on immigration?

I think the point on immigration in

0:21:590:22:05

the analysis is that it shines the

light on one of the other conundrums

0:22:050:22:10

this government is facing. It shows

that under different potential

0:22:100:22:14

policy scenarios, on the one hand

the number of people from the EU

0:22:140:22:18

arriving in the UK would be reduced

from about 90,000 to 40,000 a year.

0:22:180:22:27

But it provides a hit on the

economy, and the problem the

0:22:270:22:33

government has is that the upsides

of Brexit, such as the trade deal

0:22:330:22:36

with the United States, the value to

GDP that this would provide, is far

0:22:360:22:41

smaller than that hit. This issue

cuts across this document.

We knew

0:22:410:22:46

the general economic effect was

negative, but specifically, the

0:22:460:22:50

benefit of going off and saying we

can trade with the US, because we're

0:22:500:22:54

not in the customs union or the

single market, is offset by the fact

0:22:540:23:01

that the immigration control you

have the freedom to impose is going

0:23:010:23:04

to more than wipe out the benefit?

Exactly. If you look at this

0:23:040:23:10

document, there is no scenario in

which nontariff barriers, even if

0:23:100:23:15

the UK were to stay in the single

market through the European Economic

0:23:150:23:21

Area, it would mitigate some of

those losses, but there is no

0:23:210:23:24

scenario in which all of those

losses would be eliminated. This

0:23:240:23:30

document doesn't aim to refight the

referendum. It says, Britain is

0:23:300:23:37

leaving be you. These are the

upsides and downsides. This is what

0:23:370:23:41

it looks like in terms of the impact

on the economy. Now, ministers,

0:23:410:23:47

decide what you want to do.

Of all

the things you have published out of

0:23:470:23:51

it, and you haven't published it

all, to protect your sources, all of

0:23:510:23:57

them, the upside affect of a trade

deal with the US is estimated at

0:23:570:24:02

approximately zero, isn't it? That

is how much bigger our economy is in

0:24:020:24:07

15 years' time, 0.2% bigger.

The

document includes trade deals with

0:24:070:24:16

China, New Zealand, the Gulf

countries, the some of those would

0:24:160:24:20

add about 0.2 to 0.4%.

It is very

little. Thank you.

0:24:200:24:27

Well, here to talk about

the implications of that report, I'm

0:24:270:24:30

joined by two of the biggest beats

from the Conservative jungle.

0:24:300:24:33

Peter Bone was a founding member

of the grassroots out!

0:24:330:24:35

campaign.

0:24:350:24:36

That wasn't affiliated

to the official leave campaign

0:24:360:24:38

and had a stronger emphasis

on the need to cut immigration.

0:24:380:24:41

And Ken Clarke.

0:24:410:24:42

He is a passionate remainer,

a former cabinet minister

0:24:420:24:44

and of course Father of the House.

0:24:440:24:46

Good evening. Peter Bone, what do

you make of specifically the

0:24:460:24:49

immigration stuff, that they are

finding immigration as a negative?

0:24:490:24:53

You knew that.

We aren't only 132

days away from withdrawing from the

0:24:530:25:01

European Union, that is the good

news. On immigration, this is

0:25:010:25:04

Project Fear Mark two. We had

Project Fear before the referendum.

0:25:040:25:13

The British public listened to all

the arguments, the economic

0:25:130:25:16

arguments, and decided to vote

Leave. It Nigel Farage says there

0:25:160:25:23

will be a cost of immigration

reduction, but what do you think? We

0:25:230:25:30

will have a fairer immigration

system and the same rules and

0:25:300:25:33

regulations across the whole world.

We're not going to discriminate in

0:25:330:25:38

favour of the European Union. An

unemployed person from Romania or

0:25:380:25:44

somewhere could come into the

country now, where as a doctor or

0:25:440:25:47

nurse from India will have to go

through all the hoops. We will have

0:25:470:25:52

a fairer immigration system, and all

the parties can calibrate it how

0:25:520:25:56

they want.

Should we take these

figures are seriously? They have

0:25:560:26:01

been dismissed by a number of

Brexiteers. They say the immediate

0:26:010:26:06

forecasts following the referendum

did not...

It helps to understand

0:26:060:26:12

what they are. The present silly

debate we are having on Brexit is

0:26:120:26:18

made silly if anybody rejects any

expert that comes up with something

0:26:180:26:21

that doesn't fit their side of the

argument.

0:26:210:26:28

argument. Very high-powered people

have made a serious assessment on

0:26:280:26:33

the impact of the economy on the

things that

0:26:330:26:39

things that might change, because we

don't know exactly what we are going

0:26:390:26:43

to do with our economic

relationships or with immigration.

0:26:430:26:47

As a Cabinet minister, this is the

kind of thing I would expect to have

0:26:470:26:51

from the officials, giving me their

best expert objective assessment.

0:26:510:26:59

They may have restrictive models

that building all the facts. I might

0:26:590:27:03

be affected by the groupthink. Most

of the economic changes, leaving the

0:27:030:27:12

single market, leaving the customs

union, is going to damage our

0:27:120:27:15

economy. We are leaving one of the

richest multinational free-trade

0:27:150:27:21

agreements in the world. This is an

expert attempt to say that it is

0:27:210:27:26

going to affect the economy by about

this amount. Everybody has always

0:27:260:27:31

known will stop immigrants from the

EU, young people coming to take jobs

0:27:310:27:42

that British people will not take

for some reason, for example in the

0:27:420:27:50

entertainment industry. This is a

fair way of assessing what the

0:27:500:27:54

impact might be, the best estimate

anybody is likely to make. It should

0:27:540:27:59

be published to the public and the

Cabinet should be allowed to see it.

0:27:590:28:04

Peter, do you agree that everybody

should be allowed to see it and make

0:28:040:28:08

their own judgment?

There are

documents that have not been

0:28:080:28:12

completed. They never made it to the

Cabinet. They didn't even look at

0:28:120:28:18

what Theresa May is trying to

achieve, it didn't even look at that

0:28:180:28:23

model. If we are going to talk about

experts, let's talk about a

0:28:230:28:28

professor who says we are going to

be vastly better off. He has been

0:28:280:28:33

proved more right than the Treasury.

No, he hasn't.

The Treasury got it

0:28:330:28:40

totally wrong before.

He is the only

economist I know who thinks that we

0:28:400:28:47

will just open our tariff...

But is

he more right than the Treasury? He

0:28:470:28:53

said there wouldn't be a disaster

after the referendum.

We are poorer

0:28:530:28:59

since the referendum. Let me answer

you. There is no doubt that large

0:28:590:29:07

sections of the population are

poorer now than they would have been

0:29:070:29:10

if we had voted to remain, because

it set off a devaluation, because it

0:29:100:29:16

damaged confidence in British

sterling assets, and that caused

0:29:160:29:20

inflation. The real wages of many

people are not keeping up with this

0:29:200:29:24

inflation.

The lowest unemployment

for 40 years!

The reason we need an

0:29:240:29:31

analysis is to stop having slogans

from Brexiteers, and all this

0:29:310:29:36

nonsense to denounce any attempt to

analyse...

I think we have

0:29:360:29:41

demonstrated that having a fewer

number is doesn't necessarily

0:29:410:29:45

resolve the argument! Thank you

both.

0:29:450:29:48

The past week has seen

horrific violence in

0:29:480:29:50

the Afghan capital Kabul.

0:29:500:29:51

Indeed the country has seen

horrific violence for much

0:29:510:29:53

of the past 40 years.

0:29:530:29:54

And during that time there's been

very little real justice

0:29:540:29:57

for any of the victims.

0:29:570:29:58

No process of criminal trial

for war crimes, nor a peace

0:29:580:30:01

and reconciliation process either.

0:30:010:30:02

But it is possible that

the International Criminal Court's

0:30:020:30:04

prosecutor could launch a formal

war crimes investigation.

0:30:040:30:06

And today is an important

one in that process -

0:30:060:30:08

because it is the last day

on which victims can

0:30:080:30:11

make their submissions

to judges at the court,

0:30:110:30:13

saying why they think

there should be an inquiry.

0:30:130:30:15

That's whether they are accusing

the Taliban, the CIA

0:30:150:30:17

or Afghan officials.

0:30:170:30:22

Secunder Kermani has

been talking to victims

0:30:220:30:23

to hear their stories,

and their feelings

0:30:230:30:25

about obtaining justice.

0:30:250:30:26

Just to warn you, some

of the testimony in the film

0:30:260:30:29

is extremely graphic.

0:30:290:30:37

Hospital CCTV cameras captured

the moment a huge Taliban bomb

0:30:390:30:42

exploded on Saturday outside

a police compound across the road.

0:30:420:30:49

It had been hidden

inside an ambulance.

0:30:490:30:53

Over 100 people died.

0:30:530:30:55

It's just one of the many potential

crimes against humanity

0:30:550:30:57

committed in Afghanistan

by many different groups.

0:30:570:30:59

Now judges at the International

Criminal Court are beginning

0:30:590:31:01

to examine submissions from victims

here in Afghanistan.

0:31:010:31:04

They are deciding whether to

authorise an official investigation

0:31:040:31:06

into war crimes that could see

charges being levelled

0:31:060:31:08

against high-ranking Taliban

members, against CIA officials,

0:31:080:31:10

and leading figures

in the Afghan government.

0:31:100:31:18

32-year-old Samara worked

as a cook in an orphanage.

0:31:270:31:29

She was killed in another suicide

bombing by the Taliban

0:31:290:31:32

in Kabul last July.

0:31:320:31:39

Now, Samara's 17-year-old

daughter, Fatima, wants

0:31:510:31:52

the International Criminal Court

to bring charges

0:31:520:31:54

against the Taliban.

0:31:540:31:58

She's lost faith in

the Afghan authorities.

0:31:580:32:05

Fatima says she's not

afraid of reprisals.

0:32:170:32:24

But to get justice for Fatima's

mother, those responsible

0:32:360:32:38

would first need to be identified,

then somehow arrested.

0:32:380:32:45

You've got to catch the Taliban -

or you've got to catch

0:32:450:32:48

the individuals.

0:32:480:32:49

You've got to bring them

to The Hague, and you've got

0:32:490:32:53

to put them on trial,

and you need evidence,

0:32:530:32:54

and that evidence comes

in the form of documents,

0:32:540:32:56

it comes in the form

of witness statements,

0:32:560:32:58

and that gathering exercise,

for an institution that doesn't

0:32:580:33:01

have its own police force,

is incredibly problematic.

0:33:010:33:06

The proposed investigation

by the ICC would look at crimes

0:33:060:33:09

committed from May 2003.

0:33:090:33:14

That would cover some

prisoners taken from

0:33:140:33:15

Afghanistan to Guantanamo Bay.

0:33:150:33:20

Many were initially held

at the Bagram detention centre,

0:33:200:33:22

just outside Kabul.

0:33:220:33:26

Campaign group Reprieve are making

submissions to the ICC

0:33:260:33:28

on behalf of three men.

0:33:280:33:31

When you look back at the kinds

of things that happened

0:33:310:33:34

to the prisoners detained

in Afghanistan, in Bagram,

0:33:340:33:36

in other secret facilities,

we're seeing all manner of abuses,

0:33:360:33:38

including Russian roulette

with guns, men held in stress

0:33:380:33:40

positions for days, doused

with freezing water,

0:33:400:33:43

attacks on their genitals...

0:33:430:33:51

Abuses that really destroy the men

both physically and psychologically,

0:33:510:33:55

and what's important to remember

here is that these abuses

0:33:550:33:57

were perpetrated at the behest

of the top commanders.

0:33:570:34:05

American officials have

described the proposed

0:34:070:34:09

investigation in Afghanistan

as "unwarranted and unjustified".

0:34:090:34:16

The United States isn't signed up

to the International Criminal Court,

0:34:160:34:18

and that's not all.

0:34:180:34:22

A Bush-era law passed by Congress

says that if any American personnel

0:34:220:34:26

are ever sent for trial at the ICC,

US authorities are allowed to use

0:34:260:34:29

all means necessary to free them.

0:34:290:34:32

That could, in theory,

mean military action.

0:34:320:34:40

The ICC prosecutor is also asking

to investigate allegations of abuse

0:34:430:34:48

by Afghan officials.

0:34:480:34:54

Perhaps the most high-ranking

alleged offender was

0:34:540:34:57

General Abdul Rashid Dostum.

0:34:570:34:59

The current Vice President has been

dogged by claims of human

0:34:590:35:01

rights abuses for decades.

0:35:010:35:03

He is currently in Turkey in de

facto exile after one

0:35:030:35:06

particularly grim allegation.

0:35:060:35:12

In late 2016, Ahmad Ishchi,

a political rival of Dostum's,

0:35:120:35:15

says he was beaten and sodomised

on his orders.

0:35:150:35:22

Dostum refused to appear

in court in Afghanistan.

0:35:480:35:50

Ishchi believes the ICC

should now step in.

0:35:500:35:57

Dostum denies any wrongdoing.

0:36:180:36:22

His spokesman says

Ishchi was never raped.

0:36:220:36:24

The judges of the International

Criminal Court still need to decide

0:36:240:36:26

whether to authorise a formal

investigation, let

0:36:260:36:28

alone level charges.

0:36:280:36:32

But this is a country where people

are desperate for some

0:36:320:36:35

kind of accountability

after years of violence.

0:36:350:36:43

It's not a modern problem,

establishing that a potential sexual

0:36:470:36:49

partner is happy to become

an actual one.

0:36:490:36:51

Fumbling a way through the flirting,

the come-ons or the rejections

0:36:510:36:54

is part of growing up.

0:36:540:36:55

But the issue of sexual

consent has never been

0:36:550:36:58

as charged as it is today.

0:36:580:36:59

In fact, an app has come along

to help would-be partners make

0:36:590:37:02

explicit their permission to proceed

in a contract.

0:37:020:37:07

The fact that it describes itself

as secured in the blockchain

0:37:070:37:10

will either inspire

confidence or scepticism.

0:37:100:37:13

But whether the app takes off,

is this kind of formal contracting

0:37:130:37:16

process seriously the answer

to the many cases of disputed

0:37:160:37:18

consent, or confused intentions?

0:37:180:37:25

What kind of consent should people

be comfortable with?

0:37:250:37:27

I'm joined by Kate Parker,

a barrister,

0:37:270:37:29

who has set up a charity called

The Schools Consent Project,

0:37:290:37:32

which sends lawyers into schools

to discuss issues relating

0:37:320:37:34

to consent and key sexual offences.

0:37:340:37:41

Good evening. Some of this is

motivated by what is happening in

0:37:420:37:48

Sweden. Maybe you can tell us. They

have passed a law which says

0:37:480:37:52

explicit consent is required.

It's

exactly that. I'm not a Swedish

0:37:520:37:56

lawyer. Their law has done a U-turn.

Originally it was that for a rape

0:37:560:38:07

prosecution or conviction it had to

be threats of violence. Obviously

0:38:070:38:10

there were lots of permutations to

that. That has now moved to a

0:38:100:38:17

position where there has to be

explicit, verbalised consent.

0:38:170:38:22

Failing that, a conviction will be

overturned.

What do you think of the

0:38:220:38:29

idea of a nap where you literally, I

think it involves a photo, you can

0:38:290:38:35

take various boxes. -- the idea of

an app.

I think that is problematic

0:38:350:38:43

in a number of ways. Anything that

purports to externalise and modify

0:38:430:38:50

consent, some hours possibly before

any sexual interaction takes place,

0:38:500:38:54

is a worry. Consent is a live thing.

It involves two human beings

0:38:540:38:59

checking in with each other.

It's a

process.

Exactly. You might give a

0:38:590:39:05

licence for one thing, and in actual

fact what happens in the bedroom

0:39:050:39:09

turns out to be something completely

different.

Exactly.

I think it is

0:39:090:39:15

unworkable. But trying to open up

conversations about consent, as my

0:39:150:39:17

charity does, is important.

You are

sceptical about explicit, requiring

0:39:170:39:25

explicit verbal consent, or not.

Because everybody just thinks of

0:39:250:39:28

conversations where people fumble

through very awkwardly, really.

From

0:39:280:39:33

a legal perspective, going back to

Sweden's law, it almost reverses the

0:39:330:39:37

standard of proof. There are

scenarios where you read somebody's

0:39:370:39:43

nonverbal cues and you are able to

understand that they are consenting.

0:39:430:39:46

The example, a couple who might have

been together 20 years is unlikely

0:39:460:39:50

to check in with one another that

explicitly and say, due consent to

0:39:500:39:53

this, that? -- do you consent. There

might be situations that do not

0:39:530:40:02

require verbalised consent.

You run

this schools project. What is your

0:40:020:40:05

advice to young people about how to

engage in this? It can just be so

0:40:050:40:12

awkward and embarrassing. There are

so many other things you are trying

0:40:120:40:16

to overcome.

Absolutely. There might

be alcohol involved, nervousness,

0:40:160:40:20

whatever it might be.

Exactly.

Communication, we say, is the

0:40:200:40:25

answer. That doesn't mean saying, do

you consent to this?

Exactly, we do

0:40:250:40:31

not want a turn-off, what is the

communication?

Something like does

0:40:310:40:36

this feel good to you? What do you

like? Opening up the channels of

0:40:360:40:41

communication is really important

with young people. Even just

0:40:410:40:44

discussing it in a classroom, so

they have some kind of pre-thinking

0:40:440:40:49

before they find themselves in these

scenarios. We think it's very

0:40:490:40:52

important.

Just put the other side,

99.9% of cases will be dealt with

0:40:520:40:59

perfectly finally on that kind of

basis. There will be .1% where there

0:40:590:41:04

will disputed consent. Maybe you do

just have to go the Swedish way,

0:41:040:41:11

because those ones are so awful that

you have to say, look, everybody

0:41:110:41:14

else has to go with explicit

consent, so we can deal with the

0:41:140:41:19

point 1% that are not.

Turning to

our law on consent, our law says a

0:41:190:41:25

person consent if she or he agrees

by Joyce and has the capacity to

0:41:250:41:30

make that choice. As I understand,

there is no agreement that it should

0:41:300:41:36

change. -- by choice and has the

capacity. Your own personal standard

0:41:360:41:40

might have to be higher than the

law.

Good etiquette.

Enthusiasm

0:41:400:41:45

rather than capacity, for example.

Thanks very much. That is all we

0:41:450:41:49

have time for this evening. Kirsty

will be back in this chair tomorrow.

0:41:490:41:53

Have a very good night.

0:41:530:42:01

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS