Results Part 3 Northern Ireland Elections

Results Part 3

Mark Carruthers and Tara Mills present live coverage and analysis of the Westminster election results as they come in from the 18 constituencies across Northern Ireland.

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Ireland and experts on hand to analyse the latest assembly results.


We can go to them to get up to speed. People have picked up on this


as one of the lines of the day, because it sums up the brutal nature


of politics. Danny Kennedy, not expected to lose his seat, but he


has gone. He feared he was going to lose it. That is why he was so quick


out of the traps to say that Mike Nesbitt should not have said what he


said about transferrin. It was clear that he had been given


transfers before, but I should say, I got something wrong earlier when I


said she had worked in his office. That was not so. I don't know how my


source got that wrong. But I got that wrong. Hopefully a minor point.


One of those things you pick up. Thanks to our viewers who have


joined us from the BBC News Channel, this is our continued coverage of


the Northern Ireland assembly elections. Thanks for being with us.


What have you made of what has been happening in the last couple of


hours? Keeping a very close eye on developments. How is the picture


filling out? I genuinely did not see the Lord Morrow elimination coming.


And if you considered the three Sinn Fein seats there now, that is really


quite a big statement. By the Sinn Fein party. Their gonna leaders of


unionism who were a bit shocked. Mike Nesbitt looked very weary of it


all. It looked like he was relieved to be resigning, and I think


possibly because of the Lord Morrow elimination and possibly because the


election was more brutal than even she thought it would be, Arlene


Foster looked a bit in shock when she was giving her accept and


speech. There wasn't a single mention of Sinn Fein anywhere in it


-- acceptance. She has declined to be interviewed by the BBC so far,


but we're hoping she will talk to us tomorrow. She has opted to go home


without giving a detailed interview to the BBC. Uncharacteristic. I do


find it strange. She gave an interview to the TV in Ireland. The


DUP are hurting tonight and they will regroup. If Mike Nesbitt had


not resigned we would be talking more about her position, but


politics is a rough trade. It is a dirty and rough business and we saw


today how rough it can get. The DUP were surprised by how rough it has


got. What about Mike Nesbitt's decision to go? I mentioned the


political editor 15 years ago, you work with Mike Nesbitt in this


building, as to die, over many years. Were you surprised that he


launched that pre-emptive strike and fell on his sword? -- as did I.


Earlier than maybe he had to, because people were surprised he did


it so quickly. The results are not good but not as bad as it might have


been. At this stage. There is a view that it is very bad, he did a bad


election the last time and here he is facing the DUP under pressure.


Arlene Foster is the goalkeeper and he has the penalty kick and he


misses the door. You think he had to go? Yes. When he realised himself he


was going to go, is Basic instinct were as a journalist and he wanted


to get to the punch line first bash his basic instinct.


But then maybe you could get all 18 counts finished and then make an


announcement tomorrow, or Sunday. But to do it when people are still


fighting for seats within his party, that seemed a little bit previous.


Yes, it looks like that, but I think the devastation that he probably was


feeling having made no headway against the DUP under such pressure,


and watching the Alliance party, it will not be making headway in terms


of seats, but they have the same number of seats as they had before


it all started. I think the nature of Mike, I've known him 30 years and


he just wanted to be rid of this. He will be staying on until they decide


what they want to do, and that is a huge moment for the Ulster Unionist


Party and I don't think they will take that decision quickly. I want


to talk to Peter Wear who is the former education minister.


Congratulations to you. You had a bit of a gamble. You did not think


you could hold onto your seat, but you moved to where you thought you


could win a seat and the gamble has paid off. Facing a fresh challenge,


moving from a different number of seats created problems for all


parties, but I'm delighted that the people here have placed their trust


in me and I hope to repay them. Everybody thought it was a tall


order for the DUP to have three outgoing ministers in the battle for


seats and to hold them, but you have done that, that's a very good result


for the DUP in Strangford. You have got one and so have the Alliance


party and the Ulster Unionist Party. You are pleased with our


performance. How did you do overall? Sometimes, this is the group of


death, you might refer to it, like in the football World Cup. It was a


mixed picture, we succeeded in some areas but we are disappointed to


lose some great colleagues. And I commiserate with anyone who has lost


a seat, it is very tough. Politics can be very brutal, but there is


great talent which has been lost to the assembly through the election.


That is quite sad. I want to talk about Mike Nesbitt and his decision


to resign. Mike has got to make his own


decision, think about what happens in the internal mechanism. I wish


him well for the future. I wish him well but I don't know what he sees


as his future. Maybe this is an opportunity for unionism to come


together. We have seen a brutal and action, and one of the


disappointments many Unionists will see is that we did not maximise our


seats. That is something that we do need to tackle. And also see how


best we can move things forward in Northern Ireland. Do you feel Mike


Nesbitt's pain this evening? He has been leader five years and he made


the claims in this election but he didn't deliver on them and he has


now fallen on his sword. There is a personal price in these


circumstances. To be fair, we can look at politicians and I know


sometimes people can castigate them, but there is a personal life behind


that. Family life. It can take a toll on families. I've great


personal sympathy for Mike and in whatever avenue he pursues,


remaining as a Strangford LMA, I wishing well, and there have been


disagreements, areas where myself and colleagues have not agreed with


Mike Nesbitt, but it has not been personal. And therefore I wishing


well. Congratulations to you. We can go to West Tyrone and talk to Daniel


McCrossan. He has held his seat. Congratulations, are you relieved?


I'm happy and relieved and looking forward to a rest for a few days


before I go back to the assembly on Monday. What about the tussle for


the fourth set, the fifth seat. How did it pad out? -- pan. You manage


to get home, was it a tight fight? We always had a seat in West Tyrone


and I'm very happy to retain it. This is my third election in three


years and we have most to increase the mandate of the party here.


People came out in force and they offered their support to me, to


represent them going forward. Are you confident, briefly, that the


assembly will get up and running again sooner rather than later? DUP


at one end of the spectrum and Sinn Fein at the other, they seem to have


boxed themselves into corners and it is not entirely straightforward to


see Stormont reconvening in the way that we might expect it to do. I


live in hope. If they can get together before the election, there


was no call for the election, but we are faced with it and the same


result. My fear and the fit of the public, is direct rule. -- the fear


of the public. I hope that Sinn Fein and the DUP don't want that to


happen and I hope that they put their differences aside and put the


interests of the people on the ground first in terms of health and


education. And put aside the them and us, because this is about


everybody in Northern Ireland and people are very angry and this


election shows it. There has been a big increase in the nationalist


turnout. Thanks for joining us. Congratulations again. We are going


to go back to the panel and a moment, but first we are going to go


to the Titanic exhibition centre in Belfast where the four Belfast


counts have been taking place. Thank you. I'm joined by Paul Bradshaw,


successfully elected. -- Paula. You must be pleased. To have retained


their seats across the board. It is a nice team, people from different


backgrounds with different strengths, different constituencies,


and it would be nice to get back at Stormont and do what we have to do


to get the place up and running again. Do you think that this


possible? I think that is why they need the smaller parties, to be in


those talks, because it is so divided and I think the middle


ground, the progressives, who are coming through, they need to get a


voice in there, to make sure that we have a strong mandate. A lot of


constituents have put their faith in us to negotiate on there but half to


get devolution back up and running -- on their behalf. It depends...


The Ulster Unionist Party lost ground, and we have picked up from


other parties, as well. 2000 votes ahead. They had to come from


somewhere. Some from Unionists but also from the DUP. What about Mike


Nesbitt, surprised he resign? No, I wasn't. We have seen so many


casualties and a big names like Danny Kennedy. His position was


untenable and he gambled so much. It was very ambitious, what he said,


but he did not have the party with him. It is very much unfortunate


that his political career in terms of leadership has ended. I don't


know who is going to fill the void. On a personal level, what about the


other casualties? People like Joanne Dobson. You work closely with her.


Surprised she lost her sick? Very surprised. -- she lost her seat. We


worked on the health committee and we did joint campaigning over things


like cancer drugs, and that will be a big loss to them. Robbie on the


health committee, as well. There will be big shoes to fill and this


is a sad day for them. Thank you very much. We can now go to North


Antrim, Ballymena, and hear from our correspondent. The result is


completed. Both counts are over in Ballymena in the leisure centre. Mid


Auster, looking at both constituencies, if you are looking


for any unfamiliar faces you will not find them, but there are


unfamiliar faces who have gone. Three Sinn Fein leaders have


retained their sick, as did the one DUP member. -- their seat. One SDLP


member has claimed a suit. North Antrim, -- has claimed a seat. They


are left with Robin is one of the Ulster Unionist Party and Mervyn


Storey of the DUP. Stuart McGregor has retained the


seat he was co-opted into after the resignation. So many unfamiliar


faces and familiar faces gone from Ballymena.


We can now hear more about the numbers, crunching them on our


behalf, our political editor Mark Davenport. We have to consider two


constituencies, not just any constituencies, constituencies which


we think might turn out to be crucial in terms of the end game.


They are numbers we have had in the back of our mind. One number was the


number 30 because that is what any party needs to wield a petition of


concern, the veto mechanism on its own. We think potentially South


Belfast and Langer Valley could play a role in that. We can have a look


at that. South Belfast first of all. Three MLAs elected here. Let's have


a look. He is clearly there. The other two came in for the two DUP


and a green close behind. This is the battle for the numbers for the


DUP. There are less than two unionist quotas but there are also


floating votes. It seemed at the beginning quite probable that Clare


Bayley would pick up enough transfers from the others to


overtake one of the others, but we are not sure which at this stage. We


are leaping through a few stages. Clare Bayley has left above


Christopher Stortford. The question is where some of the transfers might


go and whether they will deliver their Bayley home and whether the


DUP will be able to get their couple of seats which they had previously.


Paula Rachel and Claire Hammond have been elected -- Paula Bradshaw. That


will leave 2000 surplus Foakes which I think will go to Clare Bayley


rather than the DUP -- votes. Will the transfer be enough for the DUP


candidate. That's one way they could get to 30.


If they got those two and every thing else was even. There is


another place where the DUP is under threat. These three candidates. This


was how they stacked up. Previously the DUP had three seats here, so if


they retained those three seats and the two seats, they get to the 30


mark. There you can see the SDLP are some way behind. They haven't had a


sit there in recent times. If we zoom forward to stage seven it is


proven that Pat Catney is proving quite transfer friendly. Yes. You


can see that Pat Catney got more transfers ban on the DUP candidates


did. The decisive phase will be the transfer of that 3500 surplus from


Butler. It could be that enough of them go to Pat Catney, not enough go


to Brenda Hale, to give the SDLP a surprise victory. We think these


constituencies could be crucial in determining the overall balance. If


the DUP lost out in both places they could be down 28 seats, which would


be about -- better heat. Under the current rules Sinn Fein would still


be entitled to nominate the First Minister? Behind me we have


potentially some late drama in Lisbon. We've only been waiting ten


hours for an upset and the SDLP are claiming that one potentially is on


the cards. As you were saying, Pat Catney and Brenda Hale look like


they will flood it out for the fifth and final seat. Currently Pat Catney


of the SDLP is 130 votes ahead. They are now in the process of


transferring surplus votes from Robbie Butler, the only elected


Ulster unionist. The SDLP says that Pat Catney ease transfer friendly to


the Olveston in the nest on the basis of what happened previously.


They are growing in confidence and saying lots of pacing back and


forwards between Brenda Hale is, and Pat Catney. Both to-ing and fro-ing.


It has been a while since I spoke to the DUP about this. They were


confident at the start of play that they would have three returned. That


confidence has waned in the course of the day but pick up a little with


the elimination of Jenny Palmer of the Ulster unionists. But coming up


is Pat Catney. We are told that they intend to finish this this evening.


It could be another hour or so, who knows, but this is some late drama


tonight at Lisburn. That is a fascinating situation


developing for the final seat. It will be interesting to see if Pat


Catney takes that seat and if it does, that is putting emotion


arguably what Mike Nesbitt said, that Ulster unionists should think


seriously about transferring to the SDLP. In the meantime Mike Nesbitt


has resigned. I will pick that up in a moment with a panel. First, your


catchphrase is always keep are lit. So you did? -- keep her lit. Yes,


but it seems in this election keep her lit didn't seem entirely


appropriate. In the first count we had a great day. Sinn Fein has had a


great day at the leisure centre because out of the ten we emerged


with six of the ten, three in each constituency. If I could just thank


people who voted for us. It is very humbling to be in people's houses,


to be sitting in their kitchen. We've had custard and fresh cream!


Sometimes we've had the old bake together at the canteen. I know you


like your apple pie and custard, so that doesn't surprise me! I swear to


god I had the happiest election experience, bowing to the people up


and down around Tyrone. I think it is the warmest election we ever got.


In West Tyrone we got the highest ever vote. We got a cumulative total


of 21,000. Previous to that a high watermark would have been around


19,000. So we had such success. So much for the folksy stuff, all


politics is local. But what about the serious business of the


politics? What does the mandate for Barry Michael Gough and for your


party, what does that give you a mandate to do over the next few


weeks and months? There will be talks and Sinn Fein is arriving at


those talks with an enhanced mandate. What is their agenda? Our


gender is a quality and respect. I would like to see both governments


involved, the Irish government and British government, because they are


co- guarantors of the Good Friday agreement, which is very much


relevant and needs to be implementing full, not least the


bill of Rights, all of things need to be implemented. And I think my


message to the DUP, who will be at the table as well, is that we are


equal and toe-to-toe. The nationalists and republicans, even


with a progressive agenda, have given us a mandate to say to the


DUP, we are not less than equal, we are your equal, and that message


needs to get home. You've got that mandate and nobody questions that.


You also accept that people who voted for the DUP give Arlene Foster


and her team coming back a very strong mandate as well? I do. I do


accept that and I do respect that very much. But in recent weeks we've


heard conciliatory tone and words from the likes of Ian Paisley Jr. I


think the DUP need to reflect on their tone and language and their


attitude to equality and respect. The society can only go forward on a


platform of equality and respect. There are serious allegations of


financial impropriety and they need to be dealt with absolutely. There


will be a public enquiry which will be reported on later this year. That


will happen. Absolutely. Credit to taking the lead and making that


happen. Let's bring the two governments in as well. The British


Prime Minister should be directly involved in the talks up ahead,


because they are co- guarantors of the Good Friday peace agreement and


until that is implemented in full, the rights agenda they are contained


in as well. Thanks very much and we hope we will see you again before


too long. Look forward to it. Right, let's


talk about that. Quick word about where we are in terms of Sinn Fein's


mandate. What will Sinn Fein do with a mandate? Who knows? I wonder if


they know. The question for them was if they bought people out what would


the people say? Were people going to blame them. And in bed too long and


propping up the DUP, or were they going to row at them? What do they


really want? Do they want Stormont back, even supposedly improved in


some way, or do they want to go into lengthy negotiations with possibly a


different outcome? I wonder how much stomach there is for devolution in


the wider national scheme? I wonder how much appetite there is for


Stormont among Sinn Fein's wider supporters? Do you think republicans


more generally would prefer direct rule? They would prefer it in a


positive way, but it had become so sickening to a lot of people and


they had been turned off so much by the law and progressive picture of


Sinn Fein rolling over in Stormont, which is what a lot of people,


including their own supporters, were beginning to say. I think there was


a bit of that. I also think Sinn Fein could tolerate a longer period


of Stormont being down and out than the DUP could, both because this is


in their favour, whether they see it like that or not I don't know. On


the grounds that they didn't invest as much personally in each case as


the DUP members and they also have their project which is going at the


moment quite well for them, their votes going up. The polls are


looking better. How much of a stomach they have the negotiation I


don't know. How much skill they have for negotiation I don't know.


Because they certainly didn't distinguish themselves all that well


at many points over the last couple of years. A quick word from other


members of the panel. Good news for him and his party leader, they keep


their seats. What about the Pat Catney situation? There is the


possibility that the best DUP will sneak a seat because of the union


transfers. You could say it goes back to what Mike Nesbitt said, that


of stee in voters should think of transferring to be SDLP. It seems


they may have followed his advice? Yes, and Jenny Palmer's supporters


have every reason to want to see the DUP suffer at the hands, given what


Jenny Palmer suffered. But there is that issue that Mike Nesbitt jumped


out, arguably too soon. You think so? I really do. I think both as a


matter of common courtesy, and he is a courteous man, and as a matter of


judgement, it was not the day to do it. There were those bad scenes of


you asking and pushing, properly, of asking these flummoxed guys as to


whether they were ready to pick up the mantle and they barely knew that


the mantle had been cast. That's no way to leave the party. But there


was a sense that it wasn't just the election results that through Mike


Nesbitt. I think a lot of us watching the leader's debate were


struck by how nervous he seemed, how shaky his voice was. You know as a


presenter, and I do, that if you are in front of a microphone your voice


gives you away quite quickly. You're tyred and switched off, whatever.


His voice was shaking in that debate. I think he was already


shaken, whether because he got such bad feedback from within the party


and cause he was nervous about the result, it was as if he had semi-


decided before the result that he did it too soon. Let's just hear


about an Ofsted success. Our correspondent is down at the Titanic


Exhibition Centre. We have a bit of a ray of sunshine? I have. First of


all, the final declaration is about to be made in north Belfast and


that's going to be Exhibition -- two DUP seats, two Sinn Fein


seats. We are just waiting for the announcement in a couple of minutes.


As you say, good news in east Belfast for the DUP. What we have


left are three DUP candidates. We expect Bunting to be returned. It is


a tossup between Robert Newton and David Douglas. The DUP themselves


not calling which of those two will be eliminated at this point. But


after that point I got reaction. We are delighted. We have increased our


vote significantly. We've been working hard since we returned in


May. I hope we can get back and get the institutions back. I am


committed and that's why I came into politics, to work for ordinary


people and deliver for them, whether that be health, infrastructure,


education. We will always do right for Northern Ireland. Are you


confident you will be able to return to the assembly and make those


changes? It will be a long road ahead of us. Let's not take anything


for granted. We will go into the negotiations and see what happens.


INAUDIBLE. I am delighted we've increased our vote and I look


forward to continued to work with the other partners in all four


constituents. I've lost good friends, people who I built up


relationships with since 2015. I am gutted for Cassandra and Danny. A


message? I commend the party under Mike Nesbitt's leadership. He has


guided me and he has been strong for me. He has been there and I wish him


well. I consider him a colleague and friend. Do you fancy throwing your


hat in the ring for the leadership? No. It seems clear that a DUP seat


will go in. Your reflections on that? It is disappointing that


naturally there will be seats lost right across Northern Ireland.


That's disappointing. I spoke in the chamber on the production numbers


and although we have to remember that good MLAs have lost seats


across all parties. The people of Northern Ireland have been affected


and I estimate the cost at ?5 million. An impact on key frontline


services. We have to remember that. People were asked to come out to the


polls again and they were deeply frustrated and angry. They wanted to


get this thing working to get it delivered for the people.


Thank you. Yes, Mark, as I said, during the interview, the official


results were made for north Belfast, they joining Paul Bradley from the


DUP and William Humphrey. North Belfast is complete, we have had the


west Belfast count, we expect the east to be completed, and then


in the next, I don't know the next in the next, I don't know the next


couple of hours. The next couple of hours would be good, I am sure they


would be happy with that, thank you. I wanted to pick up on those points.


We have covered an awful lot of ground. A couple of things he wanted


to pick up on. Two things and I am not sure the body politic in the


north has understood this yet. First, Brexit has changed forever.


The vote on Brexit, and the fact that a majority of people in the


north, in this part of the island, want to remain. In the European


Union, with all of its faults. And for the benefit of everyone, for


viewers across the UK, who will be thinking, yes, the majority voted to


remain in Northern Ireland, but of course it was UK wide and the


majority across the UK decided I narrow margin to leave, and that has


consequences for Northern Ireland. For people throughout England,


Scotland and Wales, and the Scots and Welsh get it, they need to


understand this is an island and the partition of the island economically


and a European border on this island has had a huge impact on the


selection, a huge impact. I live in a border community. I was working in


the north. My husband was working in the south. One daughter is in


college in Dublin and another is in college in Belfast. That is the


first contact. I don't think we can overstate the impact of Brexit on


this election. And the fear that people have right across border


communities, from the Catholic- Protestant and ethnic...


CROSSTALK Has it brought out the vote for Sinn


Fein, not just a reaction to the DUP, it was Brexit? Brexit is


underlying it. The other thing I saw was the ethnic minority communities


coming out and they were coming out and many were voting for Sinn Fein.


But the second context, and people will be reflecting tonight, and we


talked a little bit about it earlier, there is now 1100 votes,


roughly, between Sinn Fein and the DUP. We may have 20, I don't want to


speculate on seats, it is looking at 28, whatever... You will be within


one or two of each other. The north has changed forever. I know that we


have heard the words to the point ad nauseam, respect, quality and


integrity. There needs to be a psychological shift in relation to


respect for what was the minority in the past.


CROSSTALK Just hear me out. There has not been


respect for me as an Irish leader, for my grandchild as an Irish


speaker. As a six-year-old, he was up in Stormont protesting. I would


have preferred if he wasn't. If he didn't need to do it. He was


shouting up in Stormont with six -year-olds, red with anger. He said


to me, why is Stormont cutting the money to my school? I don't think


people get the message of what you're doing to the next generation


when decisions like that I made. I don't want my grandson doing that.


What needs to happen in society is a psychological shift. Listen, we


don't have a DUP representative, we don't have a unionist in the studio


but if we had someone from the DUP, I suspect... We don't have an active


Unionist politician. Let me make this point. If there was someone


from the DUP they would say that you are selective in what you talk about


when you discuss the quality and they might think, and Jeffrey


Donaldson made the point earlier today, there are examples he could


throw at you where you respect things that don't matter to


Unionists. In terms of equality, there is legislative framework and


there are nine grounds on which you cannot discriminate, and Sinn Fein


is clear that you cannot discriminate on political opinion or


religious belief, but you also can't, and the DUP has signed up to


this, on sexual orientation. But my final point on this... Very quickly.


My final point is this is not just about going back to Stormont, this


is about the assembly, north- south, rakish -- British - Irish. You are a


Unionist but you're not a serving Unionist politician, which is what I


think I was getting too. I want to break off before that and bring in


our reporter. Confirmation of success and here is the man of the


moment. Good evening. It is a double celebration. Not only is he


re-elected, it is his 39th birthday. Birthday cake tonight? It won't be


my birthday by the time I get out of here, unfortunately, but double


cause for celebration, delighted to be re-elected by the people of Foyle


and determined to return it to them in terms of the work I do on the


issues which matter to them. You predicted that you would win two


seats and you have retained them but is there a disappointment for the


on first preferences by Sinn Fein, on first preferences by Sinn Fein,


that is a worry for the SDLP? There it is a wee bit of disappointment,


however we have to look at the result, we have increased 3000


votes, and we have managed the vote extremely well, got both candidates,


and that is something to be cheerful about. Sinn Fein have increased


their vote by even more. We have to look at how they did that. We have


to learn from how they did that and we have to see it how we are going


to increase hours in the next election. Your uncle, Mark Durkan,


will he be worried about the Sinn Fein performance, it has been


impressive, and he has a 6000 majority, but he is bound to be


worried towards the next Westminster action? I don't think he will be


particularly worried, I mean, Sinn Fein has been tremendously


impressive, and well done to them for that. We will focus on our


performance and I think we can improve further. We are 35% of the


electorate -- we have 35% of the electorate who didn't come out to


vote and we have to get them to vote SDLP. We are the strongest party


against Brexit. We have been the strongest party on the day to day


issues but sadly the election has become about more than the


day-to-day issues. I think it is important that we look at how to


move this place forward. We will be coming back with a strong team to


Stormont and we determined to play our part in making Stormont for the


people here in terms of delivering better healthcare, stronger welfare,


better education system, these are the issues which really matter to


people and these are the issues which matter to us. Do you think it


can all be put together again on Monday morning when the dust


settles, or have they been too many insults traded amongst the parties,


with the political ramifications tonight with Mike Nesbitt going, can


it be put back together? I sincerely hope that it can. I think the people


want it to happen. The people need that to happen for all of the


reasons I have outlined already. The SDLP will be determined to play a


part in making that happen. Let's just hope that it does. Ultimately


it will come down to the bigger parties. I will let you go and enjoy


your birthday cake. Happy birthday. It is back to you. Thank you. Let's


hear from members of the panel. John, for the benefit of people who


don't know your background, you were a member of the Ulster Unionist


Party, then the deputy leader of NI21, you were an independent, you


lost your seat in May, so you are not an active unionist politician,


but you are steeped in unionist politics, how can you respond to the


talk about the equality agenda and the respect agenda? On a couple of


points, the one thing I would disagree with is that this election


was about Brexit. It wasn't on my sense of it, it was the old issues


of what have bedevilled with us, dealing with the past, Irish


language. People are concerned about Brexit. It wouldn't explain why the


SDLP was under pressure given they are very strong against Brexit and


campaigned on that. I think this was an election about getting into the


sectarian trenches almost... What about the other issues mentioned,


LGBT writes, the Irish language? You mentioned my involvement in NI21. --


rights. When we had the conference I started my lines in Irish, very


badly, bad pronunciation, and the fact that, bizarrely, one of the


guys who does translation for Irish in the assembly is a Portadown


Orangemen. Unionism as a collective almost tens to say this belongs to


something else instead of recognising we need to keep


ownership. Here is the reality, there are a lot of unionistplumac-


Protestants who have no problem with the Irish language...


CROSSTALK It has to be said that there are


unionists who have a problem with the Irish language. And you see the


thing about putting legislation through the assembly, especially


when the DUP have 38 members, anything that they wanted to strike


out other legislation that they thought was going to cost too much,


instead of getting in and doing it, I mean, I accept things around the


respect agenda, and comments made earlier today which Naomi talked


about, about one of the biggest recruiters for Sinn Fein, Ireland


has mobilised a vote for Sinn Fein, yes, a significant vote for the DUP,


but she has mobilised a vote for Sinn Fein, particularly in Kent


Stephenson -- consistencies to the west, that is a tremendous result.


Can I just bring Stephen in, you are in a unique position to give insight


into how this might work, because for the last decade he worked as the


head of Kim indications for the executive, so you have been in their


working alongside successive DUP and Sinn Fein leaders and trying to help


them put forward their partnership agenda. Now, we are where we are, we


have had an election, we don't know quite what happens next. Both of


those parties go back with renewed mandate. The difficulty seems to be


that they seem to think that their mandates are mutually Lousi of, so


how can we move on from here? The difficulty has always been that


while they could agree on a high level on the sort of things you


would expect them to agree on in terms of, we need to pay attention


to infrastructure, the health service, education and schools, once


you get down into the detail, it all tended to fall apart -- mutually


exclusive. And the problem in the politics of all of this is that when


the pressure comes on, as it did in the last few weeks running up around


Christmas and into the New Year, those parties tend to withdraw into


themselves, don't talk to officials particularly, if you are not part of


the Sinn Fein and the DUP cognoscenti, you are not part of the


argument, and that sense of ourselves alone on both their parts


doesn't help, because there is little light getting into this


situation, so if you look at the takeaways for the DUP, well, you


know, we are still there. We are the biggest unionist party, the biggest


party still up for grabs a little bit, but somewhere along the line,


you know, there has to be a sense of, well, let's just back this down


a little bit. One other thing is, believe it or not, Peter Robinson


was good at, was being incredibly magmatic when he had to be and there


was a degree of pragmatism required...


CROSSTALK The first to deliver pragmatism? She


will have to be she is going to continue to be the leader. A quick


word? It follows this point, that is why you need to move, and I give


Katrina this, if you have respect you move to a genuine power-sharing,


we have too many ministers acting as king in their own five -- fiefdoms


and that is not good. I need to break in it as we have interesting


details, Lisbon, we were talking about the battle for the final seat,


we thought Pat Cagney was out of the mix, now we hear that he is back in


again, can you confirm those five seats are being declared? Pat Catney


will take the fifth and final seat in Lagan Valley. I am still awaiting


on the official figure but I am told he beat the DUP's render hail --


render hail. He will be thankful for all of the star -- of the -- Ulster


you transfers. Earlier the DUP were confident of holding all of their


seats and at the end of the night they are down to two. The DUP are


represented by Paul given and Edwin Poots. The fifth and final seat,


about to be declared, Pat Catney. That is a fascinating development.


Thanks very much. Just to clarify, that has happened. It happened


because of Ulster Union is transfers. Pat Catney has now won


the fifth seat. It is a sweet one for the SDLP. For a long while it


was very lonely in Lisburn. I hope Jenny Palmer doesn't get bad


treatment of the ground after this from disgruntled DUP supporters, who


will say they took Sarah to man across the line. Lisburn is one of


the most bitter places behind a semi- civilised facade that I can


think of. Jenny Palmer has no control of the


voters. You know how such things pan out. We


are just looking at pictures of the formal declaration. There is the


deputy returning officer. Actually,... Buries Pat Catney as


well on the left. Another little ironic thing is that Pat Catney was


brought into the party by Ulster McDonald. His period as leader was


pretty unhappy and ended on a pretty sad note. It must be ironic for him,


watching this. And Pat Catney is a bit off a character. He owns the


kitchen bar in Belfast. This could be a significant impact on the DUP


Sinn Fein balance. It isn't clear who is coming out. This picture


might not become clear tonight, but it will become clear tomorrow


morning and that the fascinating thing. Which is really nailbiting


four Arlene Foster. And could that be a defining issue for Arlene


Foster? Mike Nesbitt's resignation has taken the heat off tonight. But


the pressure could be on her again? Enormously. What a parting gift from


Mike Nesbitt if Pat Catney gets the seat, the last seat. All bets are


off. We get to that position. A fascinating situation. Let's just


hear from Mark Devonport who has some more numbers for us. It is very


interesting and also especially interesting for those of us who have


misspent some of our youth in the kitchen. I owe Pat Catney for quite


a lot of plates of mash and needs. We will have to be dealing with it


in completely different circumstances. Our current thinking


at the moment is that this is quite significant because it deprives DUP


of the commission concerned, but we were speaking south Belfast might be


the one. Lagan Valley has now nipped in and done that. Absolutely. We are


now looking for the DUP finishing on 28 seats, roughly the same as Sinn


Fein, although there 28th is not quite certain yet. It is possible


Sinn Fein might not get as many as the DUP. One of the whole issues


that led to Mike Nesbitt stepping down were those controversial


comments he made, that he would give his number, as many of his


candidates disagree. Let's look at some of his constituencies, where


the whole business of the opposition parties transferring between each


other did make a big difference. Here we have the situation where


Rosemary started in sixth place and not a brilliant sixth place when


there were only five seats to be elected. We have to watch Ritchie


McPhillips. Rosemary said she didn't agree with the leader on this and


she felt her supporters should transfer in a prounion way, but look


what happens. If we raced through, Arlene Foster gets elected. Ritchie


McPhillips at this point is down at the bottom. Where do his votes go?


Rosemary Barton is still out of the running at this point. Then at the


next stage Rosemary Barton says thank you for 1004 to -- 1471


transfers. It might seem extraordinary but let's not forget


that Ritchie McPhillips took his seat last year because he got over


90 transfers from the Ulster unionist. That allows him to


leapfrog Morris and Rosemary Barton is elected and Sean Lynch comes


through for Sinn Fein. We are looking at someone else where they


might also play a role. East Londonderry. Here we have a good


performance by Archibald. Clare Sugden doing well. I think we did


say Jerry was standing at an independent. As ever you can never


predict the fortunes of the single transferable voting system. We have


Clare Sugden elected. And John is begin to pick up transfers. What's


happened since then is the campus of votes have been redistributed. We


are now seeing that the votes from Clare Sugden are heading... They


came from the Ulster unionists but may head by a Clare Sugden with


John. And Sinn Fein has it in his sights. Yes. Clare Sugden now has a


surplus of 600 votes. There is a gap of 81 between John and Catriona. I


would have thought enough of those would drift towards the SDLP and


keep them on level pegging after the election, in a situation where we


have lost six of the assembly seats. The SDLP have done very well in


transferring their votes to seats. They fell slightly in the share of


the votes but think of the retaining their seats. On that note let's go


over to the Titanic Centre.. Thank you. Joining me here are two


guests. You must be delighted? Not only delighted, not only have our


present it is gone up but if you compared it to last May there is a


difference of 3000 additional votes. -- percentages gone up. That's a


substantial. One of the main reasons for that is especially a around


attitude. That was felt quite a lot on the doors. And also this desire


to get the institutions working and to physically give us all a mandate


to get in and get things sorted. The DUP have done well as well? But I am


not standing for the DUP, I'm standing for Sinn Fein and we are


saying that our party leader has said that if we win we win for all.


That's the attitude I've had and that's the attitude we will go into


the institutions with. But it has been a good election for Sinn Fein.


That's the position. Some of the numbercrunching that Nicholas and


Mark were doing, do you think is a possibility you will end up with the


same of seats as the DUP? I'm not sure, actually. We were looking at


some of the figures on the screen and we are getting some late results


coming in from East Londonderry, so I don't know. But we have had a


really good election and the DUP have had a good election for in the


middle of an election. Some of the predictions, possibly not from them,


but certainly from pundits and that, have put them at a higher level. But


the fact is that we have shown very positive, progressive leadership,


energetic leadership, console at a -- consolidating leadership and that


something the DUP have to bring back to these institutions. Lots to talk


about. Let's condense it and talk about the DUP's election and the 30


feet you for the partition of concern is looking guaranteed. I


think the DUP would have been looking to get over 30 and they were


always going to lose certain seats. They accept that that in certain


places by only running two candidates, when previously they ran


three. If we step out from the party politics and look at it in broader


terms it's a very good election for that centre block of alliance with


the Greens and non- aligning parties. It is an outstanding


election for nationalism. A complete reversal of the result the


Nationalists had ten months ago when Sinn Fein was the biggest loser in


terms of the percentage share of the vote. That's reversed this time and


it is nothing short of a disaster for unionism. Every unionist party


is looking... Mike Nesbitt has quickly accepted what would have


been the ultimate outcome of that result for him and Arlene Foster


certainly doesn't give any indication that she is planning to


follow that at this stage, that I think there will be a lot of


pressure on her because to be just one or two seats, if that's where we


end up, I head of Sinn Fein, having been ten seats ahead, that's a very


bad result for the DUP. When it comes to Mike Nesbitt, do you think


he was premature and he should have resigned? I think it pre-empted what


was an inevitable decision. By the party and by him. I think it was a


clever thing to do in terms of not only not leaving the issue to fester


within the party, which it would have done. People were already


unhappy at his comments. That was always going to come to a head if


they didn't make significant gains, let alone losses, but I think it


also puts a focus really back on Arlene Foster. Mike Nesbitt has now


gone. The DUP result isn't as bad in many ways, after a bad result. They


are still the largest party and a much bigger player. But it is very


bad when you look at it across. Losing the chief whip, the party


chairman and very significant figures will stop that's not a good


election result. What about RHI, was that factor? It is difficult to


tell. I think clearly that has reinvigorated nationalism. People in


the SDLP say not only that but also Arlene Foster's crocodile remark,


from that point there was a hardening of attitude where people


who might have voted SDLP said, though, we want to send a message to


her. So there were a mixture of factors. I think Arlene Foster's


tactic of constantly drawing up the spectre of Sinn Fein being the


biggest party possibly brought our voters that wanted to stop that. But


I think we also see the opposite effect of that. Nationalism really


drove Nationalists towards Sinn Fein to fulfil what Arlene Foster said


might happen, if indeed they voted in that way. A final word from you.


Did the DUP make it easy for you? Did you make gains with some of the


comments they made around the crocodile narrative? I think


initially it did. But I think some of the offensiveness from Arlene


Foster has prompted people to come out across the board. I think she


does need to reflect on what she has done as a leader. I think Mike


Nesbitt jumped before he was pushed. But I think it was a collaborative


decision. I think Arlene Foster needs to reflect on her own position


and I am sure she will do that in the coming days. Thanks very much.


We are going to have a good chat with members of my panel in a moment


but before that, let's look at the overall state of the parties and


bits and bobs to look at with Mark Simpson.


It is shaping up to be the closest assembly election in history. More


than 80 of 90 seats have been filled, including quite a few in the


last couple of minutes. I don't even know what will pop up but we will


give it a go. What I know for sure is the biggest party is still Sinn


Fein with 26, only two fewer than the party got last time even though


it is a small assembly. How close are the DUP? How many seats have a?


25. Only one seat behind. It is a long way from the 38 they got last


time and it is also short of the magic 30 mark but the DUP are


creeping up on Sinn Fein. Who is in third place at the moment? It is on


the nationalist side, the SDLP, with 11 seats. I suppose, no big deal in


terms of gains for the SDLP, but Colin Eastwood will be relatively


happy with that. Who is next, all is the unionist Mike Nesbitt, not


happy, hasn't made any real inroads into the DUP. Look at the number of


seats, ten. If you want to know why Mike Nesbitt has quit, there is the


reason. No big gains for the Alliance party, they have held on


with eight seats, and they will be delighted under their leader, Naomi


Long. Let's have a look at the scores on the doors to see how the


smaller parties and independents have done, here they are, you can


see Jim Allister, the leader of the TUV, back at the back of the chamber


making plenty of noise, and all eyes will be here on the front of the


chamber. There is a big battle going on between the DUP and Sinn Fein,


only one seat in it at the moment, to see who is going to win the most


seats, it could even be a 28- 28 draw, all we know, Mark, it is going


to be a close finish. Looks like it indeed, thank you,


Mark. Fascinating situation. I am coming to you first, Stephen,


because you are an expert on the numbers, and just to pick up on what


Sam McBride, political editor said, he described it as, I think I heard


it correctly, a disaster for unionism, is what he said, it is not


a good election for Mike Nesbitt and he is gone, but it is not good


either for the DUP. They may end up one or two seats ahead but they have


lost the Chief Whip and the party chairman, they have lost significant


figures like Nelson McAusland, Philip Logan. How much pressure is


Arlene Foster likely to come under in the next 24 to 48 hours? I am not


sure it will be the next 24 to 48 hours but pressure will be there at


eventually. This has been a bad election. Matt McKay she started out


the day as leader, 57,000 votes at the last election head of Sinn Fein.


She may hold on to the First Minister by the 1200 votes ahead of


Sinn Fein if it is a 28- 28 tie. That will send shockwaves through


unionism. It absolutely is. And it will be, owning, people have been


saying this, but given where she was when she took over, and the


honeymoon period with the media, she seemed in vulnerable, and look at


what has happened just a few months down the line. Quick word, John?


Looking at the numbers, it looks like in people designating unionists


and nationals, it will almost be a dead heat, you know, and then the


big parties, people talked before the election if the DUP went below


30, Arlene would be under real pressure, it is looking very


unlikely. If it ends up as a dead heat, 28 apiece, let's speculate,


the DUP would still be able to appoint the First Minister rather


than the deputy First Minister because there is a margin of 1200


between the DUP and Sinn Fein. That is right, isn't it? Yes. It would be


enough to claim the First Minister's position, though, of course, as we


know, they are equal positions. That is why I want to name them. Which


was part of your move. Which is the point I was making earlier. I think


people should not be getting hung up on first and Deputy First Minister.


Well, the unionists R. Well, there are a lot who don't -- are. This is


what I am saying. We need a psychological shift now. It is


50-50. Our society in the north is moving and changing and shifting.


And also, earlier, John, we were debating Brexit, I am not saying


Brexit was... What I am saying is it was one of the key issues and one of


the reasons people came out to vote. So many people on the door said to


me we don't want to be left here on our own in this little, in the six


counties. I don't want to go back to that, because I want to try to look


ahead. The reason they support us is not growth in the north but also in


the south. Your thoughts as we enter the last minutes? I think for both


political communities, it is time for a rethink. I hear what Sinn Fein


say about equality and respect and it does resonate very widely in the


Catholic community. And in what used to be a minority which is definitely


no longer a minority. But they have to carry it a little further than


that. They have to watch it on their language always. They need to go


easy on things like commemorating, as Michelle did, which of course she


had to do, as the first clean skin leader, but they have to watch it


because it doesn't look like respect, and for unionism it is a


bigger question, they lost the majority in any real sense, that is


a big psychological blow right through unionism, and it really


ought to call for a rethink not just from Arlene Foster, it has been


personalised around her, but she isn't a single voice inside the DUP,


she speaks, she spoke for DUP, in her arrogance, that has to be


harbouring today. I think viewers on BBC Northern Ireland will be Dell --


will be with us. We think that some results are about to come in. They


could shake things. It would be otherwise to head to bed when some


of the critical announcements might be just about to be made Stephen,


Katrina made the point unionists shouldn't get hung up about some


other things they get hung up on. You know these people well. You work


with them. You have worked with lots of people and you made the point, I


don't know if people caught it, you set people are hung up on it and it


matters to them. It does matter. It was part of the DUP narrative for


the election, front and centre. Just as a side issue for some but an


important issue for others. If the DUP get to save 28, I think that


their views on same-sex marriage, it will not be as easily come by and I


think it would be an amazing and there will be a enormous pressure to


making us like the rest of the UK in relation to that. What you think the


executive McAllister, if it is running up again, might look like,


presumably the DUP and Sinn Fein, but might it include the Alliance


party? Do you assume the Also unionists would be in some sort of


position? I think the alliance will qualify for the seventh ministry.


And whether there is pressure from Sinn Fein to bring justice into it.


I don't know. I think Alliance, if... They will stick with their


demands on as Naomi said earlier, the things they wanted to look at,


that might somehow have naturally... That people might have answered how


to change the petition of concern because it is not going to be easy


to come by. Unionism, and I do this, I nearly gave up my political career


by telling union sometimes you are going down the wrong road on things


like Irish language, instead of reflecting the Presbyterians save


the language after the famine, that, you know, after the early days of


home rule, the Irish and English were on the welcome sight, or when


Queen Victoria visited Belfast, somehow someone came along and said


this doesn't belong to you, Mark, you know, and we all took a role and


went home. Instead of actually just saying this is part of my heritage


just as much as yours, I am as Irish as Katrina, but identity shifts, and


the fight over the First Minister stuff has worked well for the DUP in


the elections I was involved in in '07 and '11 and '16, and it hasn't


worked as well this time, but creating these men of straw and then


wondering why nobody response, instead of actually, we need to get


back to what is it we want to do, we want to be First Minister and


minister, unique purpose, you want to deal with that power and


responsibility, well, the waiting list is going, rising at a rate of


knots, what are we doing on health, and instead of fighting over things


that we don't need to, so we turned it into... Sam McBride said there


has been an awful day for unionism. And unionism has to reflect. And


that's why I have always said moving to one big party isn't a good idea.


It is why I was against unionists. You need to give choice and change.


And I hope the all star unionist party and DUP stay in the opposition


-- all star unionist party. There is a lot of food for thought. There are


80 seats which come in would just be Newport up. The DUP and Sinn Fein


are closed on this -- on it and tuck. We will be here for the next


half-hour on BBC One Northern Ireland but at this stage we say


goodbye to viewers on the News Tamil who have been with us for the


election coverage. Thank you for your coverage. Goodbye. -- news


channel. Good evening. If you're heading to bed wondering what is in


An election programme special presented by Mark Carruthers and Tara Mills, with reporters at every count centre across Northern Ireland and experts on hand to analyse the latest assembly election results.