18/04/2017 Outside Source


18/04/2017

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Hello, I'm Ros Atkins, this is Outside Source.

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Let's look through some of the main stories here in the BBC newsroom.

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The UK is heading to the polls for the third times in three years.

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I have just chaired a meeting of the Cabinet and we're greedy Government

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should call a general election. -- and we agreed the Government should

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call a general election. Her opponents are ready.

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I welcome the chance to put the case to the people of Britain. Reaction

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from across the UK, our correspondents have all sent

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reports. Here, in the UK financial markets

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have responded positively to news of an early election -

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we'll find out why. Christian is in Westminster for us -

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if you've got any questions, send them to #BBCOS, and he or I

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will answer them for you. from the perspective of Scotland,

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Wales and Northern Ireland. Scotland's First Minister,

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Nicola Sturgeon, of all of her previous comments

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on the idea of an early election. All statements that Theresa May must

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surely now be regretting. Well, the Prime Minister says she is not

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regretting that, she has taken the decision reluctantly, recently, and

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she says in the national interest. Here, though, is more

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of Nicola Sturgeon's The question of what kind of country

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we want to be is at stake in this election campaign, and whether we

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want that to be a country the future of which is steered and directed by

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a Tory party moving ever more to the right, or whether we want the people

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of Scotland to be in charge. This is an opportunity to make Scotland's

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voice heard and make sure we have MPs from Scotland who will be

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fighting Scotland's corner. The Scottish National Party

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did very well This shows the vote

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after the 2010 election. Orange represents

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the Liberal Democrats. Red is Labour.

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Yellow for the SNP. The SNP won 56 out of

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59 seats in Scotland. One of the issues likely to dominate

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as the SNP campaigns this time round is its demand for a second

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referendum on Scottish independence. Remember, Nicola Sturgeon

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wants it to happen before the two-year

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Brexit process is over. This is the analysis of the BBC's

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Scotland editor, Sarah Smith. Nicola Stur has said she thinks it

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is very opportunist of the Prime Minister to call this election, but

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that will not stop her campaigning as hard as she can, saying that

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every vote for the SNP is a vote for another independence referendum. You

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will remember that although Nicola Stur says she wants another vote,

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and the Scottish Parliament has agreed, the Prime Minister has says

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there cannot be one until after the UK has left the EU. The issue of

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whether Scotland should get to vote on independence sooner than that,

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that will absolutely dominate the election in Scotland. If the SNP do

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well, they can use it to bolster their argument as to why they should

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have a referendum. But they did so well at the last election, they

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cannot do better, and it is difficult to see how they can do

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just as well next time. If they lose any seats, their opponents will

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suggest this means people do not want another referendum, so it is

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fraught with difficulties on both sides. BBC Wales political editor

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Nick Servini is in Cardiff. A number of political leaders in Wales have

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given the impression that they want to get stuck into this general

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election campaign. The calculation from the Tories will be that there

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will be many people in Wales who will want to give Theresa May a

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mandate to take the UK out of the EU. Elsewhere, for wildly differing

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reasons, the Lib Dems and Ukip will also both feel there are

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opportunities, so no shortage of enthusiasm from political leaders, I

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guess the question is whether it is shared among the wider Welsh public.

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And from Wales to Northern Ireland. This election comes at the most

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politically delicate of times. There's currently

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no government in Belfast. That's because the two main

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parties failed to agree a new power-sharing arrangement

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after an election last month. Despite this, the new election

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has been welcomed. Sinn Fein's leader, Gerry Adams,

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took to Twitter to say that he was up for it.

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His opponent, Arlene Foster, who leads the Democratic Unionist Party,

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She said this was a chance for voters to vote for the Union.

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Here's our Northern Ireland correspondent Chris Buckler.

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Stormont's parties had already Mr Deadlines to try to form

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governments, and those talks were meant to continue in the days ahead,

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but calling this vote probably leaves them with no chance of

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success and adds to the sense of political instability here. That is

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because campaigns here tend to be divisive, they tend to push the

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parties apart. Some commentators even called the last one nakedly

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sectarian. This one is unlikely to be very different. Unionists are

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calling this an opportunity to vote for the Union, while Republicans are

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emphasising the negative impact of Brexit and calling for a referendum

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on a united Ireland. Meanwhile, with the UK Parliament looking like it

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will dissolve very soon, there are still the very real problem of no

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government at Stormont. Westminster as two choices, one of which are to

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take over the running of Northern Ireland, and the other is a assembly

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election going alongside the general election. In recent years, general

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elections have meant live TV debates featuring the leaders, but perhaps

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not this time, or perhaps not all the leaders.

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This is from the Guardian's political reporter.

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"Tories confirm Theresa May won't take part

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And here's the Spectator Magazine's political correspondent.

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"Next question: Will May be empty-chaired in the debates

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We will have to wait and see how the broadcasters approach that, but Katy

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is here, obviously a calculation by the Prime Minister that she can

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afford to be the chaired. She is obviously decide that it is not

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worth their while to be in this debate, she has got very little to

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gain from this, whereas Jeremy Corbyn, standing next to them might

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give them a statesman like respectability that they do not

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actually have. Interesting to see the other leaders lining up saying,

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how are you not going to show up? We had this in the 2015 election, David

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Cameron said he did not want to be in a seven person debates, and all

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the broadcasters threatened to empty-chair him, but it didn't

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happen. I am sure the other parties would trade Theresa May's polling

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for what they have, the Tories performing very well, but being a

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frontrunner is not always easy in an election, is it? You can become too

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defensive in your campaigning. The pressure really is an May, calling

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this election against a previous promises, so if she only raises a

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majority is likely, people might ask if it was worth it. All the polls

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are suggesting a landslide, and it is impossible to see how many, if

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she only raises it by about ten of these, people would ask whether it

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was worth the gamble. What will her target be? What sort of majority

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would make the gamble worth it? I think 50 MPs is the minimum, she

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needs a working majority of 50, and I think, to be honest, a lot of MPs

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are hoping it will be more, around 90. In terms of credibility, she

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said time and again that she would not do this, and now she has - do

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you think are explanation hung together, as she put that issue to

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bed? She has tried to explain that she was reluctant, and it is down to

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the opposition parties frustrating Brexit. I think time will tell, but

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the first icy on pole, we had a snap poll today, suggested that voters

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did understand, so that continues to be the case, she might not have

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problems with the gamble. In terms of practicality is, does everything

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stopped and all the parties going to campaign mode? Well, we have got

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until the beginning of May, but Brexit has been dominating

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everything for months now, and I can't see the election really

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changing that. Thanks for joining us, Katy.

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Still to come - we'll have reaction from across the UK

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to the announcement that there will be a general election on June 8th.

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Well, the Prime Minister hopes the country will go to the polls

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Theresa May will want to build on her majority of 17.

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Our political correspondent Vicki Young looks at the numbers

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and where the key battle grounds for seats are likely to be.

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Theresa May says she wants certainty and stability for the UK,

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and for her that means a clear Conservative election victory.

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that she can improve on her party's performance two years ago.

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showing the results of the 2015 general election.

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Most striking are the swathes of blue across England,

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The Conservatives picked up 331, Labour won 232, the SNP 56,

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the Lib Dems and DUP eight seats each.

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it left the Tories with a very slim majority of just 12.

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So where will the Tories try to boost their numbers?

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The North West and the Midlands are crucial battle grounds,

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here there are numerous marginal constituencies where very few votes

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At the last election, Labour made little headway here,

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Certainly, Theresa May is calling this election against a backdrop

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where she is very, very much the favourite to win and, in truth,

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against the backdrop where no opposition party has ever gone

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into an election in such a weak position in the opinion polls.

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Now, Labour desperately need a revival in Scotland if they're

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to form the next government, but the Tories and Lib Dems

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will also be hoping to prise some seats away from the SNP.

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Fascinating too will be the South West of England,

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They were wiped out here at the last election

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and are hoping for a comeback, but how will their pro-EU

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message go down in a region that voted for Brexit?

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The Prime Minister seems to be trying

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If you look at last year's referendum result,

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you can see why - Remain in yellow, Leave in blue.

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could have a big impact on the result in June -

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will areas that voted Remain deliver a bruising message to Theresa May?

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General-election campaigns can be unpredictable,

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and just two years after the last one,

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voters must decide again whether there will be

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dramatic changes to the electoral map of Britain.

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Hello, I am Ros Atkins with BBC Outside Source. Theresa May has

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announced that she will ask parliament to vote one holding a

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snap general election on June the 8th.

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Let's take a few more minutes to get through some of the questions you

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have been sending in, with the help of Christian Fraser live from

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Westminster. Before he was based in London, he was our correspondent in

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Paris. The first question we have got is from a viewer who wants to

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say, will the French election result have any impact on the UK election?

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Well, a lot of people will be watching that French election,

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because it is highly unpredictable at the moment, four candidates at

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the top of the polls, and you can throw a tea towel over all four. We

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will be watching the first-round very closely and waiting to see

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whether Marine Le Pen and perhaps even Jean-Luc Melenchon of the far

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left get into the second round. People will try to draw a pattern

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from that. The thing is that the earthquake in British political

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terms as already happened with Brexit, and when you look at the

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polls, it would have to be some reversal for Theresa May not to get

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that majority, because I think, reading today, there is no sitting

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Conservative prime Minster who are sad a majority as she has had in the

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polls, or a lead in the polls at the moment, since the early 1980s. It

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would have to be some turnaround for her not to get that majority.

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Another question, and we have people calling from all over the world,

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does the second most popular party even matter? Where will they fit

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into the new governance? The thing to say about that is that in

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democracies, the winner takes all, and that will be the case for

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Theresa May. If you get a thumping big majority, she doesn't even have

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to think about her own backbenchers. Having said that, obviously, it is

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advantageous to have a good opposition, and the Government has

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said along the way, and David Davis, the Brexit minister, has said along

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the way, that he wants to involve parliament in the process, so there

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will be consultation with the opposition, but it would be, if the

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Conservatives win, it will be them dictating the terms. Question from a

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viewer in the Netherlands, can we consider this election as a new

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referendum on Brexit? Well, that is an interesting one, because I think

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there is going to be some tactical voting along the way. I was talking

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to Caroline Lucas, the co-chair, the co-leader of the Green Party

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tonight, and she was saying she would be happy to sit down with the

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Liberal Democrats in some constituencies, and maybe they would

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stand aside to give a pro Remain party a clear run. You might get

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voters thinking the same way, so down in the south-west of the

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country, where the Lib Dems lost seats in a big way in 2015, they

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will be looking to reverse that against the Conservatives this time

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around, so you might get some Labour voters saying Gabo we will vote for

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the Lib Dems to force the Conservatives out. It might not be a

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rerun of the referendum, but there will be tactical voting along Brexit

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lines. A number of you are asking whether the new constituency changes

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in the UK will be put in place for this election, Christian said he was

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pretty sure they wouldn't be. We have checked, they definitely will

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not be, we are on the old constituencies, nothing has changed.

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And a question from Jim in Essex in the UK, any chance of other parties

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being upfront about a coalition to win floating voters? Let's talk

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about that, because a little bit earlier I saw you talking to

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Caroline Lucas, discussing just this issue. As I say, she is quite open

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to that idea. They are not just necessarily talking about working

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strategically together in certain constituencies, and they did that at

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the by-election in Richmond Park, in south-west London. There were

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reports that the Green Party locally said, we don't have a chance of

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winning, and they stood aside, and the Lib Dems overturned a whopping

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23,000 majority that the Conservative candidate who became an

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independent, Zac Goldsmith, that he had, and the Lib Dems won. So it can

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work, that strategic sort of alliance between certain parties,

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but really I think the Lib Dems would like to be working closely

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with Labour, and they are going to have to work closely together if

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indeed Theresa May gets that majority. One more question from Ben

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in London, do you think people will vote along traditional party lines

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or specifically on Brexit? I am a northerner, so I come from the

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north-west of the country, and in my neck of the woods, I am originally

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from Burnley, a town that voted overwhelmingly from Brexit, and I'm

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interested to see what happens, because I know Brexit is important

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to people there, but it is a die-hard Labour area. Look at North

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Wales, the north-west and the north-east, and there are lots of

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constituencies in those areas where people really want Brexit to work,

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and yet they are torn, because they are die-hard Labour voters. Some

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voters will have a real quandary this time around, and we have said

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before, some Labour voters just don't want Jeremy Corbyn, and some

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really do. There are all sorts of different things people will be

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considering when they go to the polls, but it is more difficult for

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Labour voters than the vast majority of Conservative voters, who are

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behind Theresa May and want Brexit to work. Thanks very much,

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Christian, you have been very useful, let's do it again tomorrow!

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This is a story we will be doing a lot of detail over the coming weeks.

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Let's talk about the pound. This is what happened when we knew that

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Theresa May was going to be giving an important statement but we didn't

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know what it was about, the pound went down. Once we knew, it rallied.

:18:59.:19:02.

Deutsche Bank has been sharing its analysis of what the election may

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mean for the economy. It says... "It will dilute the influence of MPs

:19:05.:19:08.

pushing for hard Brexit, strengthening the Government's

:19:09.:19:11.

domestic political position over key EU demands for a

:19:12.:19:12.

transitional arrangement." "Dangerous gamble which may

:19:13.:19:16.

backfire, adds to economic and political

:19:17.:19:28.

uncertainties for Europe." But the FTSE was down

:19:29.:19:30.

by more than 2%. Here's Rachel Horne

:19:31.:19:39.

from BBC Business FTSE was down before the

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announcement, lots of geopolitical announcements, the French elections,

:19:56.:20:00.

and now this added into the mix. Because sterling rose, that brings

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the FTSE down as well, because lots of companies bank their profits in

:20:06.:20:09.

dollars or Euros, because they are global companies, so any rise in the

:20:10.:20:12.

strength of sterling brings down the values of those profits. That has

:20:13.:20:17.

also been pulling the FTSE down ever so slightly. Overall, traders are

:20:18.:20:20.

saying that apart from that initial knee-jerk reaction in Stirling,

:20:21.:20:24.

reaction in the market is fairly muted, they do not expect a big

:20:25.:20:28.

reaction until the results of the election come through, unless

:20:29.:20:30.

polestar to show that the Conservatives won't win a majority.

:20:31.:20:40.

I'm going to begin the next segment with a video that has been shared

:20:41.:20:45.

thousands of times, you may well have seen it. This is Jon Kay in

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Bristol breaking the news of the new election to a woman called Brenda.

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Oh, for God's sake, I can't honestly...

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There's too much politics going on at the moment,

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It gets things out in the open, sorts things out.

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I thought she said that initially when she took over.

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I disagree with this entirely. Are you excited about another election?

:21:12.:21:25.

No, not another one! It's too much. It's great, isn't it? It means that

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we can get her out. Let's go further west from Bristol,

:21:27.:21:41.

Truro, where Cornwall voted for Brexit and swung heavily towards the

:21:42.:21:44.

Conservatives in the last election, and here are some voters there

:21:45.:21:45.

giving their reaction. She has pulled the rubbered from the

:21:46.:21:55.

bag this time around. It all depends, quite a shrewd move, we

:21:56.:22:00.

will see. I found Brexit so disheartening, and the whole process

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so disheartening, and yeah, anything that will reverse it would be really

:22:05.:22:08.

good, but I can't see that a general election would do that. Hopefully it

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will be stronger, yes, but I wish she would get on with it, just get

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us out and finish with it. I don't understand all this negotiation. It

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is a complicated business. Let's shift to the Prime Minister's very

:22:25.:22:28.

safe Conservative seat of Maidenhead. Theresa May has been the

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MP for nearly 20 years, big majority, it is unthinkable that she

:22:33.:22:34.

will not win again. What do I think?

:22:35.:22:37.

It's a bit soon, isn't it? She's only just got in, hasn't she?

:22:38.:22:39.

I don't know what to make of it. I just heard it on the news.

:22:40.:22:43.

I was absolutely staggered. That she has called one,

:22:44.:22:46.

I can't really see the reason why. I think it's a good thing, really.

:22:47.:22:53.

I do. I think after the Brexit-type thing,

:22:54.:22:55.

and she went straight into power, I think the people didn't

:22:56.:22:58.

have a chance to have their say. They'll get in again,

:22:59.:23:02.

unfortunately, because Labour,

:23:03.:23:06.

who really do fight for the poor... Finally, further north, Dewsbury, a

:23:07.:23:22.

large South Asian community, 80 battle ground for Labour and the

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Conservatives. Danny Savage has spent the day there.

:23:26.:23:30.

Nothing's changed since the last general election for you?

:23:31.:23:32.

I do think hopefully it's needed to have a clearer mandate in order

:23:33.:23:44.

It's a very brave and bold assistant to go for a general election. Do

:23:45.:23:55.

think it will work, or could it backfire? Here, not such a big

:23:56.:23:59.

gamble, but across the country it is more of a gamble.

:24:00.:24:05.

It's the first general election since I've turned 18,

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and a lot of my friends are really excited to vote, but I've got no

:24:09.:24:11.

idea which way I'm going to vote so I'm going to have

:24:12.:24:14.

Before we wrap up the programme, a question from a lot of you, is there

:24:15.:24:19.

a possibility that Brexit will be cancelled depending on how this

:24:20.:24:23.

election result goes? We can never say never, especially after the last

:24:24.:24:28.

couple of years, but I must say that is very, very unlikely. Labour and

:24:29.:24:33.

the Conservatives have dominated UK politics for a long time. Assuming

:24:34.:24:37.

they become the two biggest parties, well, we know Theresa May supports

:24:38.:24:42.

Brexit, she is making the case, but Jeremy Corbyn too is interested in

:24:43.:24:47.

talking about the nature of Brexit, not reversing it. This is very much

:24:48.:24:51.

about the form it takes, not about whether it happens or not. Thank you

:24:52.:24:54.

very much indeed for watching, we will have much more tomorrow, I'm

:24:55.:24:57.

sure. Until then, bye-bye.

:24:58.:25:01.

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