18/04/2017 Outside Source

I'm Ros Atkins. Welcome to Outside Source. The UK is heading to the

polls for the third time in three years. I have just chaired a meeting

of the Cabinet where we agreed that the Government should call a general

election to be held on the 8th of June. Theresa May says she wants a

new mandate before Brexit negotiations begin. Her opponents,

though, have other ideas. I welcome the opportunity for us to put the

case to the people of Britain. Now is the time for Scotland's voice to

be heard. We're prepared for an election that we thought was going

to happen. Donald Tusk is saying Brexit is now like a hitch cock

film, an earthquake followed by ever rising tension. We hear from other

EU big hitters too. We report from all over the UK. We know for some of

you it's not the news you wanted to hear. Not another one! Oh, for God's

sake. I can't honestly, I can't stand this. Those of you who can't

stand it and are going to carry on watching, if you have questions, we

know lots of you do, send them my way. We will get into them through

the hour. E-mail, find us on social media and the hashtag is BBC OS.

Ever since she became Prime Minister, Theresa May has said there

will be no early election. Well, she's changed her mind. Earlier she

explained her reasons why. I have just chaired a meeting of the

Cabinet, where we agreed that the Government should call a general

election to be held on the 8th of June. I want to explain the reasons

for that decision, what will happen next and the choice facing the

British people when you come to vote in this election. Last summer, after

the country voted to leave the European Union, Britain needed

certainty, stability and strong leadership. Since I became Prime

Minister, the Government has delivered precisely that. The Prime

Minister went on to address the issue of disunity in Westminster. At

this moment of enormous national significance, there should be unity

here in Westminster. But instead, there is division. The country is

coming together but Westminster is not. In recent weeks, Labour have

threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European

Union. The Liberal Democrats have said they want to grind the business

of Government to a stand still. The Scottish National Party say they

will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain's

membership of the European Union. And unelected members of the House

of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way. Our opponents

believe because the Government's majority is so small, that our

resolve will weaken and that they can force us to change course. They

are wrong. Not everyone would agree with the Prime Minister's analysis

that the country is coming together, nor that Westminster will be united

after this election. We shall have to wait for the election results. We

do know the next scheduled vote had been in 2020, but the new date, as

the Prime Minister told us is June 8th, under seven weeks away. For

that to happen, we need to see a two thirds vote in the House of Commons

tomorrow. As the Opposition Labour Party agrees with the plan, it's

going to happen. That issue and many other issues raised by the Prime

Minister's announcement can be found on the BBC News website, where

there's comprehensive coverage on the app as well. You can send us

questions through the hour, the e-mail, hashtag and our social media

contacts are on screen throughout. Let's go live to Westminster.

Christian Fraser is there. Christian, has it sunk in yet for

everyone at Westminster? They're all on their starter's blocks. I don't

think they can quite believe it, no. Most of them, particularly within

the Conservative ranks, suspected that she would look at it more

closely given the polls, still they had no word that she was going to

call an election this morning. Certainly they were saying the Prime

Minister has a poker face for us. -- poker face, Ros. It's been

interesting seeing how the different parties are fighting this election

on different platforms. They're focussing on different issues. Yes,

they are. That's going to be the really interesting thing. First off,

the Conservatives as you heard from Theresa May will campaign on

leadership and making Brexit work. Of course, the Liberal Democrats who

are opposed to Brexit, they will campaign the other way and looking

to target the Remain voters. The conundrum has been for the Labour

Party. We heard from Jeremy Corbyn, the Opposition Labour leader in

Birmingham today. He talked about housing and education, and the NHS

and those are key and very important issues for people on the doorstep,

of course. He didn't mention Brexit. All those things really could be

affected by Brexit. Brexit is very much the elephant in the room. He's

going to have to address the issue at some point. It's not that easy

for some of the Labour mpds. Because some of them voted Remain and some

of them are in Brexit constituencies. So it is Labour,

when you look at those three parties first in England, that are going to

have the biggest challenge on the doorstep. Then of course, you look

at the SNP? Scotland, who are very much the commanding voice in

Scotland with 59 seats. They will be campaigning on independence, you

would expect. Certainly the independence idea will come into the

campaign, perhaps the other parties will want to bring that into the

debate as well. Yes all the different parties voting on

different issues. We've got a question from Rohit in India, is the

fact the Prime Minister is calling this election evidence that she's

failed to build a good enough consensus for her programme? No, for

me, as you said, two weeks ago, before the recess, she was saying

she didn't want an election. Then she went walking in the Welsh hills

and somehow changed her mind. Three things will have played on her mind,

first of all, the polling. We can't trust polling, not absolutely. But

the polling at the moment is so overwhelmingly in her favour and she

will have taken that into account. As you heard from her there, she has

a small majority. When it comes to the Brexit negotiation, there will

have to be compromise, but some of her backbenchers within her own

party don't want her to compromise. She has a bigger majority. That sort

of problem goes away. The third thing, you will know this from your

time in brufrlz recently, is that when she goes to face up the other

27 European leaders, she is the only one that has not got the mandate

from the people. She was shoved in after the referendum vote, but she's

not had the green card from the British people. That will certainly

strengthen her hand if she has a majority and she puts what she wants

from Brexit in the Conservative Party manifesto, she can stand at

the dispatch box here across the road and say, this is what they

voted for and she can do the same thing when she goes to Brussels.

Christian, thank you for the moment. Mentioning Brussels, we are live

there later. Now let's look at some of the contenders in this election.

Theresa May, the Prime Minister, she leads the Conservatives. Jeremy

Corbyn leads the Opposition Labour Party. Tim Farron leads the Liberal

Democrats, another Opposition party. Then there's Nicola Sturgeon of the

Scottish National Party. We've got to think about the Green Party, who

say they welcome this announcement. Join us to fight for a fewer chore

to be proud of. We've heard from the UK Independence Party saying, "We

welcome this, but make no mistake, it's driven by Labour's weakness,

not the good of the country." Here's how it's standing in the BBC poll of

polls. You can see the Conservatives way out ahead on 43%. Labour on 25,

Ukip 11, the greens 4, the SNP 5 and the Lib Dems 10. We will speak to a

pollster in a little while. All the Opposition parties are saying they

welcome this election. Let's hear from Jeremy Corbyn. I welcome the

opportunity for us to put the case to the people of Britain, to stand

up against this Government and its failed economic agenda, which has

left our NHS in problems, which has left our schools underfunded, which

has left so many people uncertain. We want to put a case out there for

the people of Britain of a society that cares for all, an economy that

works for all and a Brexit that works for all. That's Labour, right

after the announcement, the Lib Dem leader took to Twitter to say, "This

is your chance to change the direction of your country." He went

straight into campaign mode in Truro in the south-west of England. It's

an opportunity for the people of this country to change the direction

of this country, to decide that they do not want a hard Brexit, they want

to keep Britain in the single market. And indeed, it's an

opportunity for us to have a decent, strong Opposition in this country

that we desperately need. Next Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of

Scotland. Here she is on Twitter, "The Tories see a chance to move the

UK to the right forced through a hard Brexit and impose deeper cuts.

Let's stand up for Scotland." And as all major politicians have been

today, she's been talking as well. Clearly, she sees the opportunity

given the total disarray in the ranks of the Labour Party to crush

all opposition to her, to get rid of people that disagree with her and to

give herself a free hand to take the country in the increasing right-wing

direction she wants to take it in. That would mean not just the hardest

possible Brexit but more austerity and deeper cuts. Now is the time for

Scotland's voice to be heard and for people in Scotland to stand up for

the kind of country we want Scotland to be and that's the campaign that I

look forward to leading in the weeks ahead. Now this is where we are at

the moment: The Conservatives have 101 more seats than Labour in the

House of Commons. When you factor in all the other parties, that adds up

to a 12-seat majority in the 2015 election. I should say the

Conservatives have got 6% more of the popular vote than Labour. These

are the results from at the time. Ukip performed well, over 12%. The

Liberal Democrats close to 8%, SNP under 5% and the Greens on 3%.

Looking ahead, here's the analysis of one of the top polling experts in

the UK, John Curtis and how he sees this race panning out. It is quite

difficult these days for either party to actually win a land slide

in the House of Commons, because not only is Northern Ireland now out of

the UK-wide political picture, so also is Scotland. I would be

surprised if the SNP don't hang onto most of the seats north of the

border that they won two years ago. Secondly, although the Labour Party

are in a dire position in the opinion polls, a lot of the seats

that they have are safe ones. The truth is therefore, if actually the

opinion polls were to narrow during the course of this campaign, I think

we should bear in mind in particular Theresa May is very much now going

for a vote Conservative for my vision of Brexit and that perhaps is

going to make some Conservative voters unhappy, if that lead were to

narrow, then we could discover that she's back with a rather smaller

majority than perhaps she is hoping for this morning. Let's speak to

Bobby Duffy from Ipsos MORI. Let's deep with the question you must be

asked a lot, why trust polls given the problems we've had? We had some

problems, some issues with particular polls. But if you look

around the world and look at the role of the polls, the results from

the polls in so many countries, they're more often right than wrong.

There's been really tricky contests, like Brexit, in particular and Trump

in the US. Where we're talking about 50/50 races where the expectations

of accuracy on those polls is incredibly high. What we have now is

a more healthy look at news polls, treat them with respect and treat

them with caution. I was saying that this is less about the popular vote,

more about how the vote breaks down in constituencies. Is that how you

approach polling? In the national polls that you see in the media,

they're just national. They don't take account of how it breaks down

into seats. We help conduct the exit poll that Professor Curtis runs and

that's about seat projections. The ones that you see in the paper, day

to day, don't tell you anything about how the seats break down, just

what the national vote is saying. But that is still a crucial

indicator. What you see right now is the Conservative Party polling on

around 45%, 46% in the most recent polls. That's even after the

announcement today. That is an incredible lead and it's similar to

Margaret Thatcher had in 1983, when she had a major victory. It's almost

exactly the same as Tony Blair ended up with in 1997, when he had

179-seat majority. As Professor Curtis says, it won't happen quite

like that. But you could see a three-figure majority. What are the

main issues in deciding which way people are going? It's leadership,

who people trust with the economy. And in particular, now, Brexit.

Brexit is tied up so much with economic success, the future of the

country, those three issues, leadership, economy and Brexit are

the things people are most focussed on. The Labour Party has its work

cut out if the polls are to be believed. That's a big if, but if we

take those polls at face value, why is Labour struggling? Can we pin

point particular issues it's facing? On leadership, you see Theresa May

polling at plus 33 in terms of views of her leadership. You see Jeremy

Corbyn polling at minus 40. That's a big issue. In terms of who you trust

on the economy, you have the Conservatives polling three or four

times the level you see with Labour. On clarity of what your position on

Brexit, Labour as we heard from the previous piece, has a real issue

there, particularly in the types of seats that they represent, where the

population is often very split. Have you cancelled your holidays? Luckily

I've just been on holiday. I'm so pleased. Good to see you. Thank you

very much. We will have more on Theresa May's

decision to hold an election coming up here on Outside Source.

The UK Independence Party faces a major test in the general election

happens as planned in June. It's almost certain to. Its only member

of Parliament Douglas Carswell quit the party earlier this month. The

leader described the Prime Minister's decision to soak a snap

general election as the mother of all U-turns. I actually don't think

it's very good for the country. It creates instability and strange

isn't it that she was saying that Nicola Sturgeon can't have a

referendum on independence before 2020 because it would create

uncertainty. A general election creates more uncertainty than

anything else. However, Ukip will fight it and fight it hard. OK she's

invoked Article 50, but the negotiations haven't even begun yet.

We know that she's already back tracking over immigration. When

people voted on June 23, they voted not to control immigration but cut

immigration. They are saying immigration figures will continue to

be the same for ten years. That isn't what people voted for.

I'm Ros Atkins with Outside Source. The British Prime Minister has

announced that she will ask Parliament to vote for holding a

snap general election on June 8. Let's bring you some of the main

stories from BBC World Service. First of all, the US president,

Donald Trump, has just signed an executive order to review a

temporary visa programme placing foreign workers in US jobs. He's

signed the so-called buy America hire America order on a visit to a

tool factory in Wisconsin. BBC Chinese is reporting that America

and Japan have agreed to increase diplomatic and economic pressure on

North Korea to abandon its nuclear programme.

French security forces in Marseille have arrested two suspected Islamist

militants, thought to have been planning a terrorist attack, before

the first round of the presidential election on Sunday.

This on Facebook, police say a man suspected of shooting a man in Ohio,

posting a video of the killing onto Facebook, has taken his own life.

Steve Stephens shot himself in his car after a police chase in

Pennsylvania. That's on the BBC News website.

Theresa May would almost certainly not be Prime Minister right now if

it weren't for Brexit. Her decision to call this election is also

connected to it. She says she wants a clear mandate before the Brexit

negotiations begin and the EU is already busy preparing for that

moment. We know the 27 EU leaders meet next weekend to adopt their

negotiating guidelines. European Council president, Donald Tusk, one

of the most senior figures in the EU, has been feeling descriptive

today. He says: The European Parliament's chief Brexit

negotiating says, "The UK election is an internal affair. But clearly

Brexit will be the key element of it." That's certainly how the Lib

Dems would like it to be. They're emphasising Brexit. If you listen to

Labour today, the family I has not been there, it's on health,

education and a fair society. So the different parties are putting their

emphasis is different areas. This has come through from the German

Foreign Minister. "Uncertainty is certainly not good for relations

between the EU and the UK. Hopefully new elections will lead to more

clarity and more predictability." I wonder if Jackie Davis thinks that's

going to happen. She's a well known EU analyst. Good to have you back.

Is it overly optimistic to think an election can deliver a clearer and

more stable situation? Well, I think there is a feeling here that it may

increase the room for manoeuvre. That at the moment, Theresa May is

having to always talk a very tough line with the EU, if there is to be

a deal at the end of these negotiations, it's going to take

compromise on both sides. There has been a concern that because she

didn't have her own mandate, because she had to keep her own political

party happy, that was driving her to take a very tough line, go for hard

Brexit. There are people saying tonight, if she wins and she wins

big, then she'll have the room for manoeuvre, and we may get a better

deal for both sides. Others say, actually this raises the stakes.

Because if she doesn't get the deal she wants, she may be more willing

to walk away from the talks, arguing she has a mandate to do that as

well. Most people here saying yes, could bring more clarity and

predictability. But it is quite a risky strategy. It doesn't sound

like anyone isn't expecting her not to be the Prime Minister in a couple

of months? I think they look at the opinion polls, the way everybody

does, and with that lead, the feeling is that she is taking a

gamble, she believes she can win and the polls suggest she can. Indeed,

one of the question marks here is if it wasn't her, if it was for

example, Jeremy Corbyn, what do we know about him? We know that the

Labour Party is very divided. We know he was very lukewarm during the

referendum campaign, so he would be very much an unknown quantity were

that to happen, then the whole thing would be thrown into doubt and a big

question mark here because the time table for these negotiations is very

tight. It's only two years. The clock has already been ticking since

Article 50 was triggered, those divorce proceedings began. Now for

the moment, it doesn't matter. The EU is busy getting its own ducks in

a row. They won't be ready until towards the end of May any way to

start detailed negotiations. So this timing doesn't delay that process.

If it were to lead to a political upheaval, and there was a lot of

calculating to do after the election domestically, taking people's eye on

the Brexit ball, that time table could also come under immense

pressure. So on balance, people feeling this doesn't need to be too

disruptive. It could be a good thing. But it is a gamble and people

will be watching very nervously from Brussels. I know you're going to be

watching carefully, this summit with the 27 leaders, not this weekend,

but next. Might this uncertainty over who they're going to be

negotiating with affect the position that the EU adopts? I don't think

so. The EU is very clear about what its red lines are. Its fundamental

principles that you cannot cherry-pick, you cannot have the

rights and benefits of membership without the responsibilities. They

are going to be drawing pretty clear lines. What they will be hoping

though is up until now they've not really been sure where the UK's real

red lines are. They will be watching because as Theresa May and other

leaders set out their visions of the Brexit world, what they really want,

there's not been a lot of clarity on that till now. They'll be looking

for clues and signs and hoping to get more of an idea. When it comes

to the fundamentals of their negotiating stance, that there is a

divorce bill to be paid, that we talk money first, later we will talk

trade, but only later, on those basic principles I think they're

going to be pretty clear and pretty tough, whoever wins the election.

Jackie, we always like having you, thank you very much.

Now, over the past few months, we have heard variations on this

statement from Theresa May many times. I'm not going to be calling a

snap election. I've been very clear that I think we need that period of

time, that stability to be able to deal with the issues that the

country is facing and have that election in 2020. Now that's

changed. Theresa May needs to find a way to hold this election. This is a

tweet from the FT's law and policy commentator, saying, oh, God now

everyone will become an expert on the fixed term parliaments act 2011.

This is the worst possible outcome." What he's referring to is the law

put in place by David Cameron that fixed UK general elections to the

first Thursday of May every five years. Under this law, the next

election is to 2020. Let's do a BBC reality check on how Theresa May

might get around that commitment. The first way to do that would be to

overturn the entire act, something that the Government would be very

unlikely to be able to do quickly, if at all. Instead, Theresa May's

going to seek cross-party support for an early election. We know there

are 650 seats in the House of Commons. If an early election is

going to be allowed and there'll be vote on this tomorrow, Wednesday,

434 MPs need to back the idea. Bear in mind, all of the parties have

indicated they're going to support this, importantly the Labour Party,

which has a great many MPs to put behind the Government's position,

has said it will support the idea. So it's very hard to think of

anything but the most far fetched scenarios where this vote doesn't go

through. Let's bring in the BBC's Christian

Fraser, live with us from Westminster. Christian, a few of our

viewers have raised the point of - why do we have the fixed term bill

if whenever you need to bypass it you can? It's interesting looking at

your reality check there. I had the former Culture Secretary with me

about an hour ago. He's very much feeling his way through the dark on

this. He doesn't understand how it works. Maybe some other people more

familiar with this act could confirm to me. He seemed to suggest that the

Conservative side and of course they stand full square behind their

Government, but the Conservative side to trigger this would have vote

a no confidence vote in the Government or at least that is what

they thought. Which tells you, even a former senior member of Government

doesn't really understand how it works and doesn't particularly like

the legislation. It was introduced in 2011, incidentally, when David

Cameron was leading a coalition Government. We'd come out of the

financial crisis. What he wanted was more stability so that Prime

Ministers couldn't call snap elections. So he would have this

four or five year period with a coalition Government. Now it suits a

Conservative Prime Minister to rip it all up and say, actually let's

have the snap election because we need it. One minute left, here's a

question from Chris. Are we going to see the same constituencies as 2015

or with will the new proposed constituencies be used? That's a

very good question. I would think the same constituencies, I'm talking

here without knowing the full facts, I would think we'll see the same

constituencies. We only have six weeks. So I think it would be a bit

much to put all the new boundary changes and they are considerable

around the country, into play in that short space of time. I think

they were being geared towards 2020. I think they'll be for the next

general election down-the-line. Christian, thank you very much. We

leave it there for a moment. We're back with Christian in a few

minutes. Keep your questions coming. You can see the hashing it and the

e-mail on the screen throughout. We'll be back in a couple of minutes

with more on this election, which is coming on June 8.