04/12/2017 Outside Source

Welcome to Outside Source. A wig and

a half ago the European Union it

said today was a deadline for the UK

to suggest the Lilley -- a week and

a half ago today the European Union

said today was a deadline for the UK

to reach progress with Brexit talks.

But then today we have this.

Sufficient progress was not made.

There are differences which require

further consultation and

negotiation.

It looks like getting a

deal done, with Northern Ireland

effectively remaining within the

customs union but that was scuppered

by Theresa May's Parliamentary

partners from Northern Ireland.

Northern Ireland must leave the

European Union on the same terms as

the rest of the UK.

This is likely

to add pressure to Theresa May from

within her own party, and we will be

to Westminster to discuss that. We

will spend the whole of this edition

concentrating on the many aspects is

the Brexit story, and if you are

confused by it, you are not the only

one. -- many aspects of the Brexit

story. We will be joined by Chris

Morris from the BBC's reality check.

Get in touch with us through Twitter

and e-mail.

We will spend the whole hour of

Outside Source looking at the issue

of Brexit, send in questions on any

part of it. These Brexit talks come

in two phases, the first one is all

about the nature of the UK's

departure and the second is all

about the nature of the UK's future

relationship with the EU, and for

the second phase to start there

needs to be sufficient progress in

the first phase and we thought we

might hear about that today, this is

Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker,

they met earlier we thought they

might emerge to say they had reached

that point. We were wondering, could

they make enough progress on

citizens rights and the divorce Bill

and the Irish border and the answer

was no.

I'm still confident that we

can reach sufficient progress before

the European Council on the 15th of

December, this is not a failure,

this is the start of the very last

part and I'm very confident.

We have

had a constructive meeting today,

both sides have been working hard in

good faith, we have been negotiating

hard and progress has been made, on

many of the issues there is a common

understanding, but it is clear

crucially that we want to move

forward together, but on a couple of

issues some differences remain which

require further negotiation and

consultation. And those will

continue but we will reconvene

before the end of the week and I'm

also confident that we will conclude

this positively.

Our Europe editor

said before these talks, that

Ireland remains the toughest issue

and she was proved completely right.

The crux of the issue is the border

between Northern Ireland and the

Republic of Ireland, the only land

border with the EU with the UK.

There was a draft EU on this issue,

it would have meant Northern Ireland

remaining in the EU's customs union

and single market, while the rest of

the UK would leave those two, that

was the plan, but he did not last

long. Remember this? -- but it did

not last long. The Prime Minister

had to cut a deal after the last

election with Arlene Foster the

leader of the DUP, in Northern

Ireland. This was Arlene Foster's

statement.

We were not accept any

form of regulatory diverges which

separates Northern Ireland

economically or politically from the

rest of the UK.

And because of

Theresa May's reliance on the DUP

Diack legislation to the House of

Commons, when they dig in, she needs

to listen. And this is how it panned

out.

All of which left the Irish leader

little bit amused. He gave this

statement.

Following the meeting

this morning at the Irish

negotiating team received

confirmation from the British

government and the Michel Barnier

task force that the UK had agreed a

text on the border that met our

concerns but this text would form

part of the broader EU UK agreement

on the first phase and would allow

us to move on to the second phase. I

was contacted by the president of

the European Commission Jean-Claude

Juncker and the president of the

European Council Donald Tusk night

confirmed to them both the Irish

agreement that text of. -- to that

text. I'm surprised and disappointed

that the British government appears

to not be in a position to conclude

what was agreed earlier today.

Christian Fraser has been digestive

all of this.

The objective this week

is to find a form of words that both

sides can agree, and what has

happened, the British government

spent a lot of time speaking to the

Irish government to make sure that

they are happy with the form of

words and maybe they did not talk

enough to the DUP and the other

issue is that the European side,

having got agreement with Dublin,

did lots of briefing, saying we are

positive, lots of positive optimism,

but there was no counter briefing on

the opposite side, so the media beat

it up only to be left disappointed

at the end. With Theresa May looking

as if she had egg on her face, but

I'm not sure that she would not have

known the concerns of the DUP. Maybe

the DUP talked about it to the cause

of the morning and they could not

sell it to their constituents -- the

course. Arlene Foster came out with

a firm statement that she was not

going to accept it. One last thing,

when it comes to politics in

Northern Ireland, she has to look

tough, so maybe this is part of the

sequencing.

That also applies to

European politics in Brussels, as

well. There are three issues there,

citizens rights and the divorce Bill

as well, have those two been

mentioned as much?

Yes, they have.

About a week ago, we would have said

the financial settlement was the

sticking point, but we now know a

formula has be arrived at, and that

seems to have been put to bed.

The

European Parliament had a meeting

ahead of Theresa May this morning

and they are still not happy with

some issues, like the role of the

European Court of human justice,

that is a red line for some of the

Brexiteers in the UK, some of them

said that was a red line for them

and they don't like the fact that

the ECJ would be consulted through

the transition and they don't want

that have any role when the UK has

left the EU. But right now, it is

the issue of Ireland, can they find

a formula that all sides are happy

with before that meeting of 27 EU

leaders in ten days' time?

I've been

speaking to Paddy Smith, the Europe

editor for the Irish Times. This is

his take on the Irish political

dimension to this story.

It was a

surprise to everybody because most

of us thought that the deal was

done. The Irish cabinet thought the

deal was done, as well. The

turnabout from Theresa May, it

appears to have been at the behest

of Arlene Foster, and that was a

shock. No one would expect her not

to know what Arlene Foster's views

were on the subject.

Given that

Arlene Foster is saying the status

of Northern Ireland when it comes to

Brexit needs to match the rest of

the UK, how do you think we go from

here in terms of finding something

that works for her and the Irish

government?

What is interesting, the

position that the British government

signed up to was much more subtle

than she is giving them credit for,

and it wasn't the same thing as

being part of the customs union and

the single market, it was talking

about regulatory alignment apart

from the EU, so the Northern Ireland

regime would have been set up

separately and it basically would

have copied some of the laws but

administered them themselves, so

there was an element of independence

in the proposals. It is arguable,

the British can argue this is not

creating a new regime in Northern

Ireland apart from the rest of the

UK, and it is actually handing

powers to Northern Ireland executive

which is in abeyance at the moment,

unfortunately.

Brexit is applying

extra ordinary pressure to British

politics and the same could be said

of Irish politics, as well.

Yes, it

is a very serious salient in Irish

politics, and we have had a

political crisis in Ireland recently

where it looked as if the government

might have to throw in the towel and

call an election but that has

passed. There is a degree of

agreement amongst political parties

about the position that the

government is taking on Brexit. In

these negotiations, and in

particular the emphasis on the board

and what has to be done on the

border.

In terms of Arlene Foster's

approach from now on, she has

scuppered today's deal, she was

important, what does Gmail seek to

take from that place from Theresa

May? -- what does she now sick.

They

will be frantic discussions between

her and Theresa May in the next 24

hours, by problem is, I don't see

what other formula the British

government could come up with to

meet the concerns that Ireland have

and the rest of the European Union.

-- my problem is. 27 member states

have been united around this

particular position. I can't see

what other position the British

government could take and formulate

in the next two days that will have

the same result. It is a question of

the Tories persuading the DUP that

it isn't worth the candle.

Sarah

says, when is the mainstream media

going to talk about the possibility

that a Brexit deal might not be

possible at all. On the BBC, we have

discussed this possibility many many

times, the possibility of no deal,

which all sides have said could come

to pass but most have said they

would rather you didn't. John is

very critical of Brexit and says,

can we tear up the Article 50

letter. He says, if the UK wanted to

change its mind, that it's possible,

but there has been known sign from

the UK Government that that will

happen. Liam is asking what is the

DUP statement mean, well, it means

they have a significant amount of

leverage and that is because Theresa

May and the Conservatives have an

agreement with the DUP and without

that deal it would be almost

impossible for the Conservatives to

get legislation through the House of

Commons and so the DUP has a lot of

sway which is why any plan for

Northern Ireland and the Irish

border that Theresa May proposes

evidently is going to need the

support of Arlene Foster and her

colleagues in the DUP. Keep the

questions coming. When it comes to

Brexit there's no doubt Theresa May

is under pressure not just in

Brussels and not just from her

political opponents but also from

within her own party. We will talk

about the Brexiteers who want her to

do more. We will be live in

Westminster.

There has been reaction to the

suggestion that Northern Ireland

might be able to leave the EU on

different terms to the rest of the

UK from the Mehrabad London. -- from

the Mayor of London.

What I've been

arguing for some time now is for us

to be a member of the single market

and for us to have membership of the

customs union but also if there is

to be a cast iron guarantee feet EU

citizens who contribute to our

country -- for our EU citizens. The

government has accepted the

principle that if it is not the

entire country being members of the

customs union and the single market,

part of the country can, and bearing

in mind the importance to protecting

tens of thousands of jobs, the

government should also said to

London, membership of the single

market and the customs union and the

cast-iron guarantee, that the entire

country has the same deal. If that

is the case.

We are alive in the

lesion with Outside Source. Asch

live.

The UK has failed to reach an

agreement with the EU to move to the

next stage of Brexit negotiations.

We are devoting the programme to

Brexit. BBC Arabic is reporting the

killing of the former president of

Yemen. He had been allied with the

who

it was the first president after it

united in 1990. Yemen's military had

been loyal to him. It is not clear

where they will shift their

loyalties do now. In Malta, eight

people have been charged with the

death of a journalist. An Australian

MP proposed to his partner during a

same-sex marriage debate in

Parliament. You will be pleased to

know that when he asked the

question, the answer was yes. We

have discussed the issue of the

Irish border and now we can get the

divorce Bill. This is the amount of

money the UK will pay the EU to free

itself of its ongoing financial

commitments and liabilities. If you

are watching last week we were

reporting that the UK had indicated

that it would make an offer of up to

50 billion Euros, which is up on

what the British Foreign Secretary

has suggested would be paid.

The

sums I've seen that they are

demanding from this country seem to

be extortionate and to go whistle is

an entirely appropriate expression.

The figure was also dismissed by the

Brexit secretary David Davis.

All

sorts of stories flying around in

the papers this morning. It was

nonsense, the story is completely

wrong.

Chris Morris, the reality

check correspondent, it did not

prove to be entirely inaccurate,

that story, so where are we now?

Who

would have thought, women get close

to the endgame of sufficient

progress that money might be the

easy bit -- when we get close. It is

easier to hide it, Frankie, some of

the money might not be paid out four

years and echoed stash -- frankly,

some of the money might not be paid

out for years or decades, and it

will be hard for someone to come up

with an exact figure. The Irish

border is harder to phage, and that

is why the money at the moment, and

we might come back to problems,

haggling over technical details, but

at the moment that it pays to be

sorted.

We talk about the financial

commitments but less about the

liabilities, can you explain why the

UK has two by its way out of certain

liabilities?

There are two things,

the money it has committed, for

development projects, and also

assets which the EU has and the UK

says we should have a share of

those. It probably won't get a share

of assets when it comes to buildings

because it is difficult to break off

a bit of building and legally the

buildings and many of the assets

belong to the EU as a whole rather

than individual member states, and

there are also cash assets like

fines on companies, and that an area

where the UK says, we would like

some of that cash back, and some of

those tentacled details will be

haggled over behind the scenes in

the months to come -- technical

details.

We will come back to you

shortly, Chris, we have questions

for you. Citizens rights now in more

detail, there are 3.2 million EU

citizens in the UK, and around a

million UK citizens living in the

EU, and this issue is complex

because on the British side concern

about levels of immigration drive

the Brexit vote and on the EU side

freedom of movement is the

foundation of the single market. In

October Theresa May made proposals

which she said helped both groups of

people, she said their rights will

not diverged over time, but there

has been divergences of a different

type if you ask Michel Barnier. He

has claimed there is agreement on

how the rights of EU citizens in the

UK will be guaranteed. A reference

to the European Court of Justice.

Just explain the role of the ECJ at

the moment in deciding the rights of

these EU citizens here and how the

UK imagines this working.

If you are

a citizen of the European Union, any

European member state, on anything

to do with European law, that issue

ultimate place of recourse, when the

UK leaves, EU says it's citizens who

are living in this country should

also have some form of recourse to

the ECJ, but Brexit supporters here

say that is one of the reasons why

we left, to rid ourselves of the

overview of the ECJ, so that is a

problem. Again, this is something

which is difficult to phage, legal

jurisdictions are black-and-white,

but many of these other areas are

searching for the grey areas and

jurisdictions don't have many grey

areas.

In terms of what might be

acceptable to both sides, I'll we

talking about a third entity? -- are

we.

It is whether you could have

indirect recourse to the ECJ, you

could have a legal agreement on

citizens rights which is written

directly into UK law so much more

difficult to change, and then if

there are elements of European law

within that agreement British courts

might have to pay some heed to the

European Court of Justice, but how

much heed, that is a tricky issue,

and there are people within the

European Parliament who are very

firm on this. The European

Parliament gets a vote on the final

withdrawal agreement and they are

determined that the rights that the

citizens of other EU countries have

now in the UK, but they should not

lose after Brexit.

Chris, thanks.

We're looking at Brexit from all of

the different angles on Outside

Source. And now the pressure on

Theresa May's government, it comes

in many forms. The government only

functions because of a deal between

the Conservative Party and the DUP

in Northern Ireland, we have all you

heard about the DUP's displeasure

about the proposed plan for the

Irish border and that plan would

have allowed Northern Ireland to in

effect stay in the EU's single

market and customs union while the

rest of the UK left, but

unsurprisingly that immediately got

a lot of attention in Scotland, this

is Nicola Sturgeon saying this.

Next, the Welsh First Minister

Carwyn Jones.

Both of them making the same point.

Yet more evidence of the pressure

that Brexit is applying to the UK's

structure of devolved political

power. These are live pictures

coming from the House of Commons.

MPs are debating the EU withdrawal

bill. The issues on raising and many

others are likely be coming up

there, as well. -- I'm raising.

Chris Mason is in Westminster. I

have a stack of questions, but

before I get to those, what

precisely are the MPs debating at

the moment?

This is the giant piece

of legislation that is working its

way to the House of Commons and then

we'll go to the other chamber of the

British Parliament, the House of

Lords -- will. It allows what will

effectively be the cutting and

pasting of the big EU rule book of

laws and regulations into UK law, so

on the day the UK leaves the EU

there isn't a gap where things are

not counted for in law. It is a

colossal piece of work that

Parliament is working on, taking up

the entire bandwidth of the British

Parliament. Not just in terms of the

mental energy that Brexit is

consuming at the moment, from the

Prime Minister down, but also the

legislative energy, very little else

that the British government can do

at the moment, given the vast

challenge of delivering Brexit. What

is happening on the floor of the

House of Commons this evening is the

latest illustration of that.

Don't

go anywhere. There is pressure of a

different kind coming from a

pro-campaign group, pro-Brexit group

which has sent a letter to the Prime

Minister asking that the EU agrees

to certain demands before finalising

that divorce Bill and these include

ending free movement of EU citizens

and ending the rule of the European

Court of Justice in the UK as soon

as Brexit happens. This is the

Conservative MP Jacob Rees Mogg who

is one of the signatories.

It is

very important that we don't hand

over a great deal of money unless we

have an agreement. The risk is we

paid the money from the day we leave

and that reduces our negotiating

clout to get the trade deal

finalised if it hasn't been done

before the 29th of March 2019 and

that seems an obvious point.

We have

seen pressure from the DUP, but

presumably within the Conservative

Party the Prime Minister is walking

a delicate line.

Incredibly

delicate. If the last couple of

minutes of our conversation has led

you to conclude that whichever way

the British Prime Minister looks

there is potential trouble over

compromises around Brexit, then in

essence you have understood what

today announced it. It is incredibly

difficult. The simple reality for

Theresa May is that she can't please

everyone all the time, she can't

even please some people all of the

time, the whole nature of the

politics of delivering Brexit is to

encourage as many people to remain

close to her argument as often as is

possible and it is inevitable as she

goes to the process that they will

be some people all the time wanting

to complain.

Is the DUP getting all

the money it was promised in the

deal it made with the Prime

Minister?

It hasn't yet, but you can

see the power they have got today.

That was Chris, answer your

questions, and I will be back in a

couple of minutes. -- answering.

Another winter storm moved into the

western side of the United States at

the end of last week and has

continued its journey to the east,

across central and northern parts of

the US into the great Lakes as we

Richmond AMG say, Gale force winds

and heavy rain -- as we reach.

Across the West, it is looking fine

after the weather system has moved

through but it will be cold despite

the sunshine, looking at a frosty

start to the day on Monday and

Tuesday for Vancouver, Seattle and

Portland. Into the south-eastern

Asia, heavy rain in places,

especially around the Philippines.

Southern areas of Thailand and

Indonesia and there could be the

risk of flooding and landslides.

Keeping a close eye on this cluster

of heavy rain and thunderstorms in

the Bay of Bengal, this could

develop into a tropical cyclone as

it moves north into the North East

of India and southern Bangladesh.

The big story in the last few days

over South Asia is the severe

cyclone in the Arabian Sea, causing

problems in open waters to the

Marine transport fatalities, and

this system is weakening

considerably as it pushes into the

North East of India, bringing heavy

rain into Mumbai as we head into

Tuesday and Wednesday. Things then

come down, it looks like the

sunshine will make a return to this

part of the world. It is the dry

season across the north of India but

more storms in the South. Into South

East Asia, very heavy rain across

parts of north-west Greece, into

Albania, as well, fields have been

inundated with waters and the rivers

have burst their banks. These

intense and storms have been

affecting this portion of Europe but

they will slowly eased down as the

area of low pressure weakens and

booziest, this mass of cloud has had

snow -- weakens and moves East. It

will fizzle out through Tuesday and

Wednesday, as high pressure becomes

the dominant feature, but it stays

quite windy, you will notice the

tight isobars for the high pressure

will keep things fine as we head

into Tuesday, slightly milder air

pushing in off the Atlantic, as the

area of high pressure moves in, but

it will turn very wet and windy and

very mild on Wednesday. Away from

the far north, another fairly benign

day, variable cloud, some sunshine,

and it will feel quite mild in the

sunshine, but quite cool further

north. Much milder on Wednesday.

Welcome back. It was the day that

the EU set has a deadline for the UK

to demonstrate sufficient progress

in Brecht negotiations. But they

haven't quite got there. This is

what we heard earlier.

It wasn't

possible to reach a complete

agreement today.

On a couple of

issues, some differences remain

which require further negotiation

and consultation.

The deal that

appears to have been on the table

involve more than Ireland

effectively remaining inside the

EU's customs union. That idea was

scuppered by Theresa May's

Parliamentary partners. .

Northern

Ireland must leave the European

Union on the same terms as the rest

of the UK.

The people have spoken

and the answer is we are out.

18

months on from the Brexit vote we

speak to a pollster about why people

voted them and whether they have

been changing their minds. Keep

sending your Brexit questions. Chris

Morris is standing by.

Chris is still here. There's a lot

of interest in the Northern Ireland

's suggestion that was scuppered and

may yet reappear. Peter Parker would

like to ask if Northern Ireland was

to effectively remain in the single

market does that mean the rest of

the UK could use it as a back door

to access it?

This is a real problem

in a couple of ways. If anyone

thought Northern Ireland was fully

in the UK and filly in the single

market at the same time after the

rest of the UK has left, if I ran a

Chinese semiconductor company the

first place I would want to set up

his Belfast. Before I've measured up

my shelves, rest assured the French

will be saying hang on, you cannot

use Northern Ireland as a back door

into the single market. That will be

the same for the rest of the UK.

It's a point worth emphasising,

there is no members -- membership

liked.

Darren asks, is there still a

possibility the UK as a whole could

remain in the single market?

Theoretically yes. Take the example

of Norway, it's in the single market

and EEC but not in the European

Union. It seems to me that parts of

the Labour Party are moving towards

an idea that may be staying in the

single market and the customs union

should be an option. Of course the

Labour Party and in power.

Practically under the current

government, which we have to admit

is fragile and the braille, no. But

politics can change.

-- fragile and

febrile. Steve wants to ask, how

much weight should we give to Sadiq

Khan's idea that Lund of special

status as well? -- London should

have special status as well.

There's

a lot of politics going on here.

Practically the idea that London

could be in the single market and

not the rest of England doesn't make

sense to me. Politically, if you

have Scotland saying we want a piece

of this and England saying we want a

piece of this, the idea of saying

maybe the most sensible solution is

staying in the single market in some

form takes a deeper root. That's

what a lot of supporters of staying

in the EU would like as a

second-best option but it's not

what's on offer at the moment from

this government.

You. We are going

to go through a couple of things. If

we go back 18 months, these scenes

were familiar. There was ten weeks

of campaigning running up to the

referendum on the 23rd of June 20

16. In the end, it was Brexit. The

vote to leave one pretty

comfortably, 51.9%. Compare those

details with this survey from YouGov

today. They've been asking if the UK

was right or wrong to leave the

union. There's a lot to die just

here but if we look at this, this is

interesting. People who said it was

the right decision to leave, 42%.

People who said it was wrong, 44%.

That shift but not much. This is one

of the recurring themes of your work

which is the regret that some people

predicted Brexiteers would

experience just hasn't materialised.

What we've been measuring is that

there has been little change in the

overall level. The country remains

divided down the middle on whether

it is right or wrong to leave the EU

but inevitably it is more

complicated. Small numbers of people

are changing their minds but in both

directions. More importantly, around

about seven out of ten people

believe it's right Brexit should go

ahead either because they supported

it in the first place or because

they believe the results of the

referendum should be respected and

democracy should have its day.

The

fact it's costing more than some

Brexiteers suggested, the fact it

may involve leaving the single

market, that doesn't seem to be

denting peoples attitudes?

Because

for most people they aren't paying

that much attention to the minute

detail and it's not really affecting

them. It's a bit like having a large

war in a far off country. Yes, it

has its presence in the news, you

hear about it but it doesn't affect

you. It's only when these things

start coming to our home shores and

making differences to people's

economic situation that we will see

a difference. I think that will only

be after decisions are made and

perhaps then even years down the

line.

You say some people have

changed their mind but not many, is

possible to say who those people

are?

There isn't one group that has

changed. It tends to be across

different age groups. We are talking

about tiny numbers. What hasn't

emerged yet is a major Bregret

group. My sense is it could be

Labour supporters in industrial

towns if they feel they aren't

getting the deal they expected. It

could also be the case that when a

final decision is reached, huge

numbers of people if they believe

that decision goes too far and

another huge number believe it

doesn't go far enough, and what's

left in the middle is a fairly small

number of people that support the

final analysis.

A number of viewers

are asking about the possibility of

a second referendum which neither of

the two big parties are offering. Is

their interest in that or is that a

Remain fantasy?

It's not large

numbers of people that believe a

second referendum is appropriate,

but that's how things stand at the

moment. The reason we are tracking

this so regularly is because as the

situation changes, so does public

opinion. It may be the Conservatives

or Labour offer a second referendum

on a final deal before we go into

the next election.

Does the

perception that perhaps the

negotiations haven't gone as

smoothly as promised, is that

something people factor in when they

talk to you?

It appears to because

people expected the negotiations to

go badly. Although the government is

saying it's not going as well as

expected, most people expected it to

go badly and they have failed to be

disappointed with their

expectations.

Anything you would

pick out but we should pay attention

to? Particularly in the press, we

have newspapers keen for this to be

a success and others with concerns.

It's difficult to gauge the finer

points but is there a story we are

missing?

The crucial question is

when people start to think it

affects their own economic

circumstances. It's fine for people

to think the country is taking a hit

but what about them. It's the

equivalent of the draft being

introduced. When that starts to

affect people at home, then we may

see an impact and it's that we

should be looking out for.

Thank

you. We've had a question from

Jeffrey wants to ask about the World

Trade Organisation. If these

negotiations don't go to plan, where

does the WTO fit into how the UK and

the EU may have to trade?

If we have

no deal with the EU, so no

withdrawal agreement and therefore

no transition, suddenly when we

leave the EU we have to trade and

sometimes. If you like to default to

the basic rules of the World Trade

Organisation. It's not impossible

but it would be a big shock to many

sectors of the economy. Tariffs

would be introduced in both

directions. The trouble is that only

accounts for trading goods. The vast

majority now of the British economy

is a service economy. If we fall out

of the EU without any deal of any

kind, the service sector would be

badly hit and I think that's the

real concern for many businesses.

Thank you. If you want more

information on Brexit head to the

BBC website.

If sufficient progress is made in

phase one of the Brexit talks, then

phase two can start. This will look

at a new trade deal between the UK

and the EU. We've just been

discussing it with Chris. For Brexit

supporters this is a huge deal

because traders an opportunity in

their eyes. Not just with the EU but

beyond as well. Here is the Brexit

Secretary David Davis in July 2016.

Within two years...

Let's be clear, the timescale Mr

Davies describes is looking

impossible now. In time, of course,

those deals may follow. Next, this

is Britain's trade Secretary Liam

Fox. He is also optimistic. He said

this about trading with the EU 's.

If you think about it, the free

trade agreement we will have to come

to with the European Union should be

one of the easiest in human history.

We are already beginning with zero

tariffs, we are already beginning at

the point of maximal regulatory

equivalents, in other words our

rules and laws are exactly the same.

Britain says the transition to this

new deal will last around two years.

Perhaps it will, but in October the

EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier

gave an interview in which he said

it could take several years to

negotiate. He also talked about this

new trade deal between the UK and EU

being... We should note, that deal

between the EU and Canada is limited

in areas such as banking. Banking is

crucial to the British economy so

you would imagine the UK would want

something different. Another

perspective comes from the head of

the World Trade Organisation.

Clearly, this is not going to be a

situation where all trade stops.

There is a lapse in terms of the

economy as a whole. That is the end

of the world, but it's not going to

be a walk in the park. There will be

an impact. The tendency is that

prices will go up, of course. You

have to absorb the cost of that

disruption.

That is the head of the

WTO. Chris, we talk about moving on

to phase two about trade talks

between the UK and the EU. What does

that mean in practice?

They aren't

going to be trade talks as

international trade negotiators

define where you get down to the

nitty-gritty of the legal text. Most

people say it will take longer than

we had under the Article 50 process,

the two-year period until Brexit

day. What the EU side is saying, and

it's not what David Davis is hoping

for as we heard in the clip, but

what they are saying is what we are

looking for is by October next year

we want a broad statement of

political principle about how the

future relationship looks. Not just

on trade but on Security and other

issues as well. That gives a few

months until Brexit for a withdrawal

agreement and some of those broad

principles to be ratified by the

European Parliament and the UK

Parliament and others. Most experts

to look at this say, most of the

detailed technical negotiation will

have to be done after Brexit, not

before, which is why it's so

important for many businesses to

have this transition period. Theresa

May likes to call it an

implementation period, to smooth the

path.

There are these major

ambitions for new deals with India,

China, the US and others. When can

the UK get on with that?

Part of the

problem is most of those countries

won't really finalise a deal with

the UK until they know what its

relationship with the EU looks like.

You have countries like Japan, a lot

of Japanese investment in the UK is

because for them it's a bridgehead

into the single market. If that is

going to change dramatically,

countries are going to want to know.

They can start to scope out those

agreements but I don't think these

final agreements will really happen

until the relationship between the

UK and the EU becomes clear. We are

looking... Britain is not going to

sink beneath the waves but to get

back to some sort of equilibrium

where we know what all our trading

nation chips look like could take

several years to achieve.

We have

phase one going on at the moment, at

some stage phase two will start. If

the idea they come together into one

deal which is agreed six months out

from Brexit?

If we get the fabled

sufficient progress in December that

kind of marks the start of phase

two. In phase two they will have

three things. Number one, the

finalisation of what we've been

discussing already. The Irish

border, citizens' rights and the

financial settlement. Then you'll

have a discussion about transition.

There is a hope that can be wrapped

up relatively quickly to give

business some confidence there will

be continuity, although there are

some very tricky issues surrounding

transition not least the future of

third country deals. Hundreds of

deals which the UK is only part

because at the moment it's part of

the EU. Those won't necessarily

simply roll over when the UK leaves.

Can it not copy and paste them in

the way it has with some European

law into UK law?

They have to get

the permission and agreement of

dozens of countries around the

world. You can't just have an

agreement between the UK and the EU

and tell third countries to sign up

for it. It's a complex process. The

third part of what happens is this

broad discussion of what the future

relationship looks like. The idea is

you need to leave a few months at

the end for ratification. It needs

to be ratified by the European

Parliament, the UK Parliament is

going to get a substantial vote and

other capitals need to look at it.

It's still a tight timetable and

there's a lot to do.

Thank you. We

are trying to get through every

aspect of the situation with Brexit

across this edition. We can't really

say this enough, nothing is agreed

in these Brexit talks without the UK

Government and the governments of

the other 27 members of the EU

agreeing. You'll hear me talking

about Michel Barnier a lot the chief

Brexit negotiator. There is

Jean-Claude Juncker, president of

the European Commission. They are

hugely important in this process.

But in the end, it will be those 27

members of the European Union who

have to get the final sign.

Arguably, while we've been

concentrating on Westminster and

Brussels, Germany is the most

important of those EU members. This

is one view of the German attitude

towards Brexit. Certainly when I was

covering the German elections in

September, Brexit wasn't coming up a

great deal. That election gave

Angela Merkel a difficult hand. Her

party was the biggest but she had a

disappointing election and is trying

to form a coalition government

still. That a destruction. -- that

is a distraction.

There's no

official reaction from the German

government but today's developments

won't help to ease what is now a

profound and all-encompassing sense

of concern in Germany that this is

not going to end well. I'm not

talking so much politically but

among industrial voices. Business

voices, there is a fear that Britain

is going to crash out of the EU

without a deal which could have

profound implications for German

export businesses. But something

that the business world is very

concerned about. They are also

worried about what happens in the

meantime. The instability this

brings, their inability to plan for

the future. On the political front

Angela Merkel of course is busy

herself trying to fix a new

government. In a sense, nothing in

Germany has changed in the last year

or so. Angela Merkel has always been

keen to emphasise in particular to

things. First of all the remaining

EU 27 member states have to stick

together, have to present a united

front. Secondly, she will save there

are principles to which the EU

simply have to stick and one of

those is freedom of movement. It's

not something from which Germany is

prepared to budge. What's really

striking in Germany is whoever you

speak to, whether it's the public,

politicians, businesses, pop and

large they will say the same thing.

They really sad, they didn't want to

see Britain leave the EU.

Next we go

to Spain and we are going to hear

from our report in Barcelona.

Also we need to bear in mind

Gibraltar. It hasn't come to the

boil as an issue yet but it could

still do between the EU and the UK.

Here are more details.

Spain and the

UK have a close relationship in many

economic areas, not least of all in

tourism. Last year 17 million

British people visited Spain on

holiday. But also there are around

300,000 British people who live in

Spain. Many of them are pensioners

who live on the Costa Del Sol. The

Spanish authorities are concerned

about those British people. They

don't want them to return back to

Britain. Also the Spanish

authorities are watching closely the

status of their own nationals, tens

of thousands of them, who live and

work in Britain. Beyond that, there

is also the issue of Gibraltar. The

territory on the southern tip of the

Iberian peninsular which belongs to

Britain, but that ownership is

disputed by Spain. Spain has said it

wants to have a veto over any Brexit

deal that has any kind of impact on

Gibraltar. Those are some of the

issues that the Spanish authorities

are watching very closely when it

comes to the Brexit negotiations.

Well, Spain and Germany are among

the older members of the EU. If you

go further east, while many Eastern

European countries joined the EU

within the last 15 years, one of

them is Poland.

Here in Warsaw there

are two main Brexit issues. By far

the biggest is securing the rights

of the 900,000 polls already living

in the UK. At the moment their

status is unclear and that has

caused great uncertainty both for

them and their families back here.

Secondly, money. Poland gets more

than any other country under the

current EU budget and Britain is a

big contributor to that budget. With

the UK leaving, there is some

concern there could be a shortfall

in cash and that could mean fewer EU

funds for Poland. Survey after

survey shows that Poles probe

overwhelmingly support being in the

EU. Brexit doesn't appear to have

changed that. What might be

beginning to influence opinion is

the ongoing dispute between Warsaw

and Brussels over the rule of law.

Some Poles are beginning to think it

might be better to follow Britain's

lead.

Before we finish this special

edition, we are going to speak to

Chris Morris again. I want to run

you through the Brexit timetable for

the next couple of weeks. On the 6th

of December Jean-Claude Juncker

hosts a session of the European

Council. The chief EU Brexit

negotiator Michel Barnier is

expected to give an update on

whether sufficient progress has been

made to go ahead to phase two. But

will be decided by how those

top-level negotiations are going on

citizens' rights, the divorce Bill

and the Irish border. On December

14, EU leaders including Theresa

will gather for a summit in

Brussels. These happen on a Thursday

and a Friday and on the Friday

December 15, Theresa May will leave

the leaders of the remaining 27 will

decide if phase two can begin.

Chris, we know these things tend to

get thrashed out before the summit

begins.

They do. You mentioned the

sixth which is only two days' time,

there is some suggestion Theresa May

baby back in Brussels -- may be back

in Brussels. There will be a lot of

chat tomorrow between the

Conservatives, her Cabinet and the

DUP. They realise if you can't sort

this out in the next couple of days

it's probably going to be too late

to achieve what they want to do at

the summit week later. The danger

then is if sufficient progress is

announced, is for agreed to be

reached on the broad outlines of the

other 27 saying we can move on and

here are our guidelines. If that

doesn't happen on the 14th, you've

got the Christmas holiday, New Year

and suddenly it's January. The clock

starts ticking even further. I think

they need to get it done in the next

72 hours to prepare for that summit

at the end of next week.

Gordon says

what happens if there is no deal on

the Irish border? Isn't that an

thinkable?

If there is no deal on

the Irish border, if you got to the

stage of Brexit and nothing had been

agreed and Northern Ireland left the

single market and the customs union

along with the rest of the UK, there

would have to be border checks on

that border. A hard border would

re-emerge. The problem is the

British government appears to have

red lines which slightly contradict

each other. We want Northern Ireland

and the UK to leave the single

market and the customs union but we

want no evidence of any border, an

invisible border if you like,

between Northern Ireland and the

republic. It is difficult to marry

them together. You can have certain

fudges. Maybe there is this

regulatory alignment between the

Republic and Northern Ireland on

certain key issues like agriculture,

energy. There's a lot of the detail

which gets very difficult and

technical. They aren't there yet.

I'm not expecting you to answer a

detailed question about the cruise

industry but is one save, how will

this affect how the cruise industry

works? I guess it highlights how

there are lots of questions for

businesses about how, if they reach

across from the UK into the EU, how

it's just going to work in practical

terms.

Presumably you mean big ocean

liners? A cruise liner based out of

Southampton at the moment, there

will be a regulation which the

Maritime safety agency, and EU

safety which all EU countries are

part of. If the UK going to stay

part of that, is it going to mirror

the regulations? We talk about

things like regulations but that is

how the world operates, and rules

and regulations. At the moment we

have the same as the rest of the EU

and that is going to change.

I'll

find a question you can't answer at

some point but I haven't managed it

today! You can get more from the

team not just an Brexit but an lots

of news stories, search for BBC

reality check. Thank you for

watching this special and Brexit. We

are back tomorrow at the same time

covering a range of stories.