Amlwch - Thu, 19 Jan 2012 Pawb a'i Farn


Amlwch - Thu, 19 Jan 2012

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On today's panel in Amlwch -

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The General Secretary of the Union of Welsh Independents,

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the Reverend Dr Geraint Tudur.

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Two MPs. From Aberconwy, the Conservative, Guto Bebb.

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From Dwyfor Meirionydd, Elfyn Llwyd from Plaid Cymru.

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Completing the panel, the clinical psychologist, Dr Mair Edwards.

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Please give them a warm welcome.

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Good evening. It's Thursday night and time for another hour of discussion.

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Welcome to the first edition of Pawb a'i Farn in 2012.

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We start the year in the north of Anglesey, in the town of Amlwch.

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We haven't been here for many years

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but I'm sure one of our topics was discussed the last time as well.

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A handful of questions have already been chosen.

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I'm grateful to our audience for offering so many of them.

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We have people here from all over the island and some have travelled

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over the Menai knowing they'll be part of the same constituency soon.

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If you want to join us in the next few weeks,

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we'll be in Newcastle Emlyn, Ruthin and Cardiff.

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You're welcome to contribute to the discussion as usual on Twitter

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or by send us an e-mail.

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The addresses are on the screen.

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That's enough from me, let's have our first question asked by Dylan Morgan.

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What's your question?

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The International Journal of Cancer has published results

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by three scientific bodies in France which show an increase

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in child leukaemia near nuclear power stations.

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Similar results have been published in Germany.

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Is it morally right to carry on with plans to build

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new nuclear power stations?

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Dylan talking about research work done in France and Germany

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that shows an increase in child leukaemia

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near nuclear power stations.

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Is it morally right to carry on with plans to build new nuclear stations?

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Let's start with Guto Bebb.

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I think the world 'moral' is interesting here.

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If every report that's been published about the connection

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between cancer and nuclear power stations,

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if every one of them said there was a definite connection

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then I would say it immoral.

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But while some people can name studies from France and Germany

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I can sit here and mention reports from Switzerland.

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The Swiss held research on 1. 3 million children

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that were born in the last 20 years.

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There are five nuclear stations in Switzerland,

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and the report concluded there was no connection.

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In the same way there's a committee in Britain

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that's been looking at the situation here since 1969

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have come to the conclusion there is no statistical connection...

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But what Dylan has said seems to be sound evidence.

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The International Journal of Cancer.

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I hope you're not suggesting that Berne University

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is likely to be misleading people with their studies.

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We have different evidence from different sources.

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In those circumstances, using the word 'moral' is unfortunate.

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Or too strong a word?

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It's too strong in the fact that the evidence isn't consistent.

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The climate change committee in the Commons

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has conducted a study on nuclear power station safety

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following what happened in Japan.

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They have come to the conclusion the Government needs to move on

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with nuclear power stations.

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Can I jump in and ask, do you accept there is uncertainty,

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there is evidence on the one hand and on the other.

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There is uncertainty.

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I haven't read the report from France

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but when you look at Switzerland who has looked at every child

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born in the last 20 years, the population is 10 million,

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1.3 million children have been part of the study.

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-I think the study...

-So in your opinion there is no uncertainty.

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I am suspicious. As a father of five who lives near Anglesey

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I wouldn't want a station that endangers my children's health.

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I don't think there is that danger.

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There is a basic question here.

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In Anglesey, we are losing our young people.

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We see it in my constituency of Conwy, in Anglesey and Gwynedd,

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we see this high unemployment in young people.

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We need to consider the economic contribution

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a new station would make. We have to take this into consideration.

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Elfyn Llwyd, where do you stand on this?

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Well, for once I agree with Guto, the majority of what he's said.

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There is a committee called the COMARE Committee

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which has been dealing with this work for some years.

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They have conducted research around the 13 nuclear stations

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in the British Isles.

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They haven't found any evidence to justify what's being said

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in this study.

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I'd like to know the sample size of this study,

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where it was done. We can all throw figures about.

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But if I thought there was a definite danger

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I wouldn't be sitting here saying anything but close them.

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-I don't see it like that.

-You don't see any uncertainty?

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I don't...

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It's not definite one way or the other...

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But isn't that uncertainty?

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Well, you can't... Dylan's laughing, he's the one calling it immoral.

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He can't prove his figures more than I can prove mine.

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Dylan, you can respond in a second.

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I'd rather depend on a study that's been done over several years

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in 13 stations by a completely independent committee.

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So, you're 100% in favour of a new station in Anglesey?

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I'm not saying that this moral justification to close them,

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that that stacks up. In my opinion, it doesn't.

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If it did, I'd agree with him.

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-Mair Edwards.

-I've read the paper.

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What it says there is that within five kilometres

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of the nuclear stations in France, there's twice the number

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of child leukaemia cases in those areas

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compared with the general population.

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What it also says is they can't prove it's a direct connection

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but they need to do more research.

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Part of the problem with this type of research is

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only a small number has leukaemia.

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But, of course, for those individual it is a terrible experience.

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From having all the data, collecting all the date together,

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studies are needed across the world to look at all the figures.

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But what would you say?

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As a mother, I think it would be very difficult

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to live close to a power station if I thought there was any risk,

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that my child would suffer as a result of this.

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Until we have more information,

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we should use the research work carefully

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in order to make very different decisions

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considering that we need energy.

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We can't be totally dependable on renewable energy now.

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I know the audience are dying to respond.

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Let's have the last panellist. Geraint, what do you think?

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I haven't been completely opposed to nuclear energy

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and neither have I been enthusiastic for it.

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The industry isn't without its problems.

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We know accidents can happen.

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We know the power stations are targets for terrorists.

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We know there are big problems around getting rid of the waste

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that comes from them.

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But if there's a collection of scientists, and they're talking about three inquiries here,

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in France, and one in Germany, if a collection of scientists express the opinion

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that there is reason to believe that there is a connection between leukaemia,

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personally, let me just differentiate, the fact that it's in children doesn't...

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The fact that it could be harmful to any person is enough of a cause.

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-But more emotional, perhaps, when you talk about that.

-It's more emotional.

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That's the point. We often use children's health for emotional effect.

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But it's generally true - if there is reason to believe,

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and we can't think that all these studies are done in the same way with the same experiments done,

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perhaps the latest scientists are finding different ways ...

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What about this word, moral? Would it be moral?

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If there is reason to believe that harm is being caused, of course it's immoral.

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We need to wait and get to grips with the matter,

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-and bring these people together to...

-Right.

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We'll come back to you panellists. Let's turn to the audience.

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Dylan, you come in, since you asked the question first.

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There's evidence from every direction. Why should we depend on this evidence?

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Just to put this report in context, it was prepared between 2002 and 2007.

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They found 2,753 cases of leukaemia around 19 stations in France.

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I'll also refer to the report from Germany which was published some two years ago.

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Now, that report, it was prepared on the orders of the government,

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so the German government has accepted that report,

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and as a result of that and the Fukushima disaster, of course,

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the German government is closing every nuclear station on German soil by 2022.

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And that report not only referred to leukaemia in children,

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but other types of cancer in adults.

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Yes. Why don't other scientists agree and believe this evidence is the kind of question Guto's sure to ask.

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Come in at the back there.

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We wouldn't expect any better from Guto Bebb, because he's the voice of the British establishment in Wales.

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-But having said that...

-Well, Elfyn Llwyd's comments weren't dissimilar.

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But I've been shocked by what Elfyn Llwyd has said here today.

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Elfyn Llwyd is a Plaid Cymru politician.

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Elfyn Llwyd's job is to look after the interests of Welsh communities.

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What he's done tonight is look after the interests of a large global capitalist company...

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-No.

-..which is completely obsessed with making money,

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which is completely obsessed with building a nuclear power station

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which will be dangerous, not only to our children's health,

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but to culture and the language in the north west.

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-Shall we give Elfyn a chance to...

-And it's very unfortunate, Elfyn,

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-that you don't show more backbone on this matter...

-Right. I've...

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..and follow politicians like Jill Evans and Gwynfor Evans

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who have showed nothing but backbone.

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But your standpoint is unfounded, weak and spineless.

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-Those are serious accusations. Elfyn Llwyd.

-If I can answer just a couple of points,

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I have lived within some 12 miles as the crow flies of Trawsfynydd for most of my life,

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and I've made sure that if I thought any harm was being caused in Montgomeryshire,

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I'd have a strong opinion otherwise.

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What I said was that I wouldn't campaign against it.

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I didn't say I'd campaign in favour.

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Can I just say this to you. You talk about the interests of children and young people.

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Do you want to see £42 million leaving the economy of one of the poorest areas in the British Isles?

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-APPLAUSE

-If that's what you want, fine.

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What about spending that money on creating sensible, sustainable jobs

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which will be jobs for life, here on Anglesey,

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not jobs for a few years, as building jobs in Wylfa will be.

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1,500 people would work in the station once it was built, I understand.

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But it's a matter for you and the people of... And it's not just for Anglesey, either.

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Remember that this decision will be made in London,

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and I won't play a part in that.

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It's fine for you voice your opinion, but consider...

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..the population of Anglesey - if you want to see depopulation...

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..and the language suffering, remove those millions from the economy.

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Right. I'm going up to the back row.

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You're a member of the Caerdegog family.

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You can explain your situation as well as contribute to the debate.

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You may have heard of us. We live right next to the site...

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..where they want to build Wylfa B.

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They're trying to take half of the farm.

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It's a farm where the family has lived for over 300 years.

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What I wanted to ask the panel is wouldn't it be better...

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...for us to concentrate on what we'll lose...

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..rather than what we can gain from this development?

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-Losing what, specifically?

-Losing our culture, our language.

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Cemmaes has already lost a lot. I've heard Dad talk about it.

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Cemmaes as a village in the north west of Anglesey...

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..and Welsh was the spoken language years ago.

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When I was at school, English was spoken.

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-That shows the effect of Wylfa A.

-You blame Wylfa for that?

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-Hasn't it kept young people on Anglesey?

-I don't think so.

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I live in Cemmaes, but I work in Caernarfon.

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I've chosen to live in Cemmaes, but if Wylfa B comes...

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-..I will consider leaving Cemmaes.

-Right. Gareth Jones.

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As someone who lives in the village, we've been to Switzerland...

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..and France, everywhere, I choose to live in Cemmaes.

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Friends of mine who work at Wylfa, no-one in the village has leukaemia.

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I don't know if you have the figures for Cemmaes, Dylan?

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None whatsoever. That's the truth. There are none.

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And if you want to save jobs and the language...

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..keep young people in the village, give them jobs and a future.

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My daughter works in Guildford. She's already left.

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She said before Christmas, "I'm not coming back."

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-That's the truth and we hear this rubbish!

-Emlyn Richards.

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I think it's about time... I've lived here for 50 years...

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..when the Wylfa power station was built.

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And we're still playing around.

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We have a fantastic panel. I've never heard such answers.

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It's about time...

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It's about time we got somewhere.

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Germany has turned them down.

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Guto Bebb is shaking his head. That is the truth!

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Finish your sentence.

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Other countries... Japan, they've refused.

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it's time we reached a decision. We're caught between two ideas.

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People's health is at stake.

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Yes, we need to safeguard our young people today.

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-Let's keep them alive and healthy.

-You can come back in on that.

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In the first place, I think the audience response shows...

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..what most people on Anglesey think regarding this matter.

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Secondly, I hope the gentleman is referring that other gentleman...

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..someone from Cemmaes who is worried about the language...

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and the future of young people in this

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They do not have comfortable jobs in the public sector...

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..and cannot afford to protest regularly.

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The truth is in my constituency, there are Welsh areas...

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..losing the younger generation and the opportunity for jobs...

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..and all we hear is this bunch wanting to turn down opportunities.

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Elfyn said he was with Dafydd Elis-Thomas on this matter.

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What we need is jobs and a chance to develop within those jobs.

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If Wylfa goes and it is not replaced, we don't just lose jobs...

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..on Anglesey, we lose those jobs at Trawsfynydd.

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It's shameful from people who claim to be worried about the language...

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..that someone defending the need for jobs in rural Wales...

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..is the voice of a British institution.

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I'd rather be that than the voice of the comfortable middle classes.

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We won't have a language or culture if we have 6,000 workers...

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..coming here from Europe and everywhere else.

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Where do the young people of Anglesey live today?

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They live in Guildford and in London and in Manchester.

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How many people attend your chapel these days?

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Not many, I'd guess. We're losing our young people.

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It's a disgrace we're not moving forward and discussing this.

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Thank you, Guto Bebb.

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I'm surprised that you politicians are blinded...

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..by these potential jobs.

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We know that most of these jobs are not jobs for local people.

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The first Wylfa proved that, as there was so much in migration.

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What makes you so certain they are not jobs for local people?

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We know there aren't that many unemployed on Anglesey.

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And there are far better ways and safer ways...

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..to create jobs. The politicians have known about the closure...

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..of Wylfa for years.

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There are 500 decommissioning jobs, in the first place.

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-There are other ways to create jobs.

-Right, up to the back row.

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Let's get the microphone over to you.

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If we return to the original question...

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..recently Y Byd Ar Bedwar covered similar allegations...

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..to the question being asked tonight.

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Straightaway, Public Health Wales disassociated itself...

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..from that statement and said it is not correct...

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..for the reasons given by the two politicians here tonight.

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They are correct. These facts do not show the dangers...

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-But there is uncertainty.

-You can say that about all industries.

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But if there is uncertainty, isn't that a reason to wait...

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..slow down and postpone?

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You know the situation regarding energy in Britain right now.

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We need power stations in the near future.

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We know what will happen otherwise.

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We have a representative here from Horizon, Richard Foxhall.

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What do you make of the contributions made here tonight?

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As a Welsh speaker, I have raised three sons...

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..and I don't want to see them move away from the area.

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We made a decision to bring them up in a Welsh speaking community.

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I live in a Communities First area and there is despair...

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..among young people regarding the future.

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As far as the company, we have already invested £80 million...

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..in the Anglesey apprenticeship scheme, along with Coleg Menai...

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..and other businesses to train local young people...

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..for the next generation of engineers.

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As far as the jobs, we make this clear...

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..we foresee that at our busiest, there will be 5,000 jobs.

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-How many will go to local people?

-We cannot say yet.

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We haven't chosen the technology. There are two kinds.

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-We are in talks.

-But will there be 5,000 coming in?

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No. What we are saying is times have changed since Wylfa was built.

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There is a greater emphasis on corporate responsibility.

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We are already in talks with Anglesey Council...

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..and officials from the Welsh Government...

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..and the local supply chain and we are determined...

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..to provide as many jobs as we can for local people.

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Once the place is built, there will be 800 permanent jobs...

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-..to run the place for 60 years.

-Thank you. Where were those hands?

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Well, I returned to Anglesey around 40 years ago.

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I did my degree at Bangor University.

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It has given me a good opportunity to raise my children...

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..in a Welsh speaking area.

0:21:220:21:24

I have grandchildren on Anglesey and I hope they will have jobs.

0:21:240:21:29

You have mentioned 6,000 people coming in.

0:21:290:21:32

It is maybe half, and we are maybe talking about 5,000.

0:21:320:21:36

What we must do on Anglesey is to make sure everyone on Anglesey...

0:21:360:21:42

..who wants a job at Wylfa gets a job.

0:21:420:21:45

Can I just finish? Coleg Menai has invested millions...

0:21:450:21:51

..in educating young people so they have the resources to get a job.

0:21:510:21:56

-I hope that they do.

-Right. John Lee.

0:21:560:21:59

I've been lucky and unlucky with cancer.

0:21:590:22:03

I am 100% against it and the reason is...

0:22:030:22:09

..I'm involved with Ysbyty Gwynedd Radio on a Tuesday night...

0:22:090:22:13

..and I go to the Alaw Ward to visit the patients.

0:22:130:22:19

Most of them are from Anglesey and the Lleyn Peninsula.

0:22:190:22:24

And at the moment, in the paper, even in Amlwch...

0:22:240:22:29

..you will see people spending money on children with cancer.

0:22:290:22:33

Do you see a direct link between the power station and your situation?

0:22:330:22:38

-I would give that a tick, yes.

-That's your opinion.

0:22:380:22:43

Let's hear from this corner. Yes.

0:22:430:22:46

I just wanted to say following on from what that person said...

0:22:460:22:52

..that Wylfa provided my husband with a job for over 40 years...

0:22:520:22:58

..41 years, to be honest.

0:22:580:23:00

We wouldn't have half the things we have without Wylfa.

0:23:000:23:04

-The events in Fukushima don't worry you.

-No.

0:23:040:23:08

Imagine something like that happening here.

0:23:080:23:12

there wouldn't be anyone living in Amlwch and Llangefni.

0:23:120:23:16

No, but there was another factory in Amlwch that was also dangerous.

0:23:160:23:22

-Doesn't it make you think again?

-No, and the reason is...

0:23:220:23:27

..things have happened in Russia and we've seen it come across the water.

0:23:270:23:31

It doesn't matter where it is. If it blows up, it will affect us.

0:23:310:23:35

We might as well have it here because we know the standards.

0:23:350:23:41

I never thought I'd agree with Guto Bebb.

0:23:410:23:44

-I'm 100% in agreement.

-Right. What about you?

0:23:440:23:49

Let's get the microphone over here.

0:23:490:23:51

Everyone is talking about the young people and as one of them...

0:23:510:23:55

..there are a number of us here tonight, we want jobs on Anglesey.

0:23:550:23:59

Dylan's research may suggest there are problems arising from nuclear...

0:23:590:24:03

..but there is other research and there will be more next year too.

0:24:030:24:08

We need jobs and we need clean energy.

0:24:080:24:11

Nuclear isn't entirely clean, but it is an option.

0:24:110:24:15

Briefly, the final contribution.

0:24:150:24:17

I noticed what was being said about certainty and uncertainty.

0:24:170:24:23

He said recently that if there was an accident at Wylfa...

0:24:230:24:27

..the wisest thing would be to move towards Wylfa.

0:24:270:24:33

Right, and behind you. Hold on a minute.

0:24:330:24:37

As someone who will lose their livelihood if we get Wylfa B...

0:24:370:24:42

..I feel that Caerdegog has sustained my family...

0:24:440:24:49

..for centuries, along with many other families.

0:24:490:24:52

-Will Wylfa B sustain these families?

-You can answer that.

0:24:520:24:59

-Richard Foxhall.

-Briefly, we have taken into consideration...

0:24:590:25:04

..the concerns of Mr Jones' family and we have written to him.

0:25:040:25:08

We're keen to sit down with him because we've returned...

0:25:080:25:11

..to the original plan and there may be an option not to buy the land.

0:25:110:25:15

-We want to discuss the options.

-I don't want to be entirely scientific.

0:25:150:25:20

But we might as well have a vote.

0:25:200:25:23

Who wants to see a new power station at Wylfa?

0:25:230:25:27

Hands up.

0:25:270:25:29

Who is against?

0:25:310:25:33

Well, it's pretty close. I can see two hands up over there!

0:25:340:25:38

I think it may be slightly in favour, but not by much.

0:25:390:25:43

Thank you and thank you to the panel for your contributions.

0:25:430:25:46

Join us again in Amlwch after the break.

0:25:460:25:50

Welcome back to this week's Pawb a'i Farn. We're in Amlwch.

0:26:060:26:10

We're enjoying another lively debate.

0:26:100:26:14

Let's move on to our second question. It comes from Brian Owen.

0:26:140:26:18

Is it acceptable that Wales is likely to lose...

0:26:180:26:24

..a quarter of our MPs and that the constituency of Anglesey...

0:26:240:26:29

..will become part of the mainland?

0:26:290:26:31

Brian asking if it is acceptable for Wales to lose a quarter of its MPs...

0:26:310:26:36

..along with Anglesey becoming part of the mainland. Elfyn Llwyd?

0:26:360:26:40

Not in my opinion.

0:26:400:26:42

The process is not a process I would approve.

0:26:420:26:46

Years ago, when the Borders Commission was looking...

0:26:460:26:49

..at making changes, they looked at the community, the language...

0:26:490:26:53

..in which way people are looking within a community.

0:26:530:26:58

Anglesey is an unique community. It's an island.

0:26:580:27:01

We argued that Anglesey needs to stand alone...

0:27:010:27:05

..as the Scottish islands do.

0:27:050:27:08

They are liberals and get to do so. They're with Guto's people.

0:27:080:27:13

-So they're fine.

-They're SNP. They're more like you.

0:27:130:27:16

Most of these changes, it is the Liberals who have benefited...

0:27:160:27:20

-..in Scotland.

-No, it's one SNP and one Liberal seat.

0:27:200:27:24

-Let someone else speak.

-Get your facts right.

0:27:240:27:28

Give someone else a chance. You might learn something.

0:27:280:27:31

-Well, stick to the facts.

-And in the long term, I think the island...

0:27:310:27:37

..should stand alone, but the reality is I don't think it will...

0:27:370:27:42

..because I don't think the Commission will listen to anyone.

0:27:420:27:45

They will have their figures and if you reach 75,000, that's it.

0:27:450:27:49

For example, I represent Dwyfor Meirionnydd.

0:27:490:27:53

They're talking about bringing in part of Powys...

0:27:530:27:56

..Machynlleth and the Dyfi Valley and Caernarfon and the Conwy Valley.

0:27:560:28:00

I think they are lovely areas but it will be 12,000 square miles.

0:28:000:28:05

Let's be fair - why should someone like you or Guto...

0:28:050:28:09

..represent possibly 40,000 people and other constituencies...

0:28:090:28:13

..in England with 80-90,000?

0:28:130:28:16

Quite simply, Dewi, it would have been considered in the past...

0:28:160:28:21

..because when I go to a meeting, it takes me an hour and a half...

0:28:210:28:26

..to travel there, another hour and a half to travel back...

0:28:260:28:30

..and I know people representing areas in Cardiff, Liverpool...

0:28:300:28:33

..Birmingham, London, they get through there in three minutes.

0:28:330:28:37

They have a larger population, I have longer distances to travel.

0:28:370:28:41

I know you're dying to contribute, Guto, but I'd like to speak...

0:28:410:28:45

..to the other two first of all.

0:28:450:28:47

As someone born and brought up in Bangor and who still lives there...

0:28:470:28:51

..I have no opposition to my part of the country being linked...

0:28:510:28:56

..with Anglesey, but I'm not sure that the people of Anglesey...

0:28:560:29:01

..want us from the mainland.

0:29:010:29:04

No? No! There we are.

0:29:050:29:08

I thought as much. But I agree with Elfyn.

0:29:080:29:12

There is something strange about this idea.

0:29:120:29:16

Anglesey is a unit in itself, of course, as it is an island.

0:29:160:29:21

And it has its community and its people.

0:29:210:29:26

It seems to me that bureaucracy and hitting targets...

0:29:260:29:33

..is taking over from commonsense.

0:29:330:29:36

But what about this idea of losing 10 MPs?

0:29:360:29:39

You could say that is an inevitable result of devolution.

0:29:390:29:45

We need fewer representatives in London.

0:29:450:29:49

Having fewer representatives in number doesn't worry me.

0:29:490:29:54

What we need is high quality representatives...

0:29:540:29:57

..to speak up for us, to represent us.

0:29:570:30:00

Are we short of them?

0:30:000:30:02

Well, most of us were furious...

0:30:020:30:07

..when we realised what was going on regarding MPs' expenses.

0:30:070:30:11

And that's when the people of Britain realised...

0:30:110:30:14

-..things weren't as they should be.

-Geraint, thank you. Mair Edwards.

0:30:140:30:19

Of all the constituencies, I think Anglesey is the tidiest...

0:30:190:30:23

..and it's the one that should remain by itself...

0:30:230:30:27

-..and not join us.

-But if it doesn't reach the right amount...?

0:30:270:30:31

Well, it's still a constituency that is together...

0:30:310:30:37

..and is far easier to administer in that way.

0:30:370:30:41

I think it's a problem when an MP is going to have to work...

0:30:410:30:45

..across a number of local authorities.

0:30:450:30:50

That is going to make it complicated.

0:30:500:30:54

And as far as some of the other constituencies...

0:30:540:30:58

..they are so big, it wouldn't be possible to be democratic.

0:30:580:31:02

I think Wales' situation is slightly different to the situation...

0:31:020:31:06

-..in more populated areas in England.

-Brian, what do you think?

0:31:060:31:10

The Menai is a natural border between Anglesey and the mainland.

0:31:100:31:16

What's wrong with the people of Bangor?

0:31:160:31:19

I don't think they want us any more than we want them!

0:31:190:31:23

But it is so much easier to administer 1,500 people...

0:31:250:31:31

..in a town than it is in a rural area.

0:31:310:31:34

And I think the people will lose out, not the MPs.

0:31:340:31:41

Anyone else to contribute on this from the audience?

0:31:410:31:44

No, you're pretty quiet on this subject. Dylan Jones.

0:31:440:31:47

I'm happy Anglesey has been red for ten years...

0:31:470:31:51

-..and I hope...

-Are you worried it won't be if the borders change?

0:31:510:31:55

-No. I'm sure we could keep Bangor too.

-Confident words.

0:31:550:32:00

-Yes?

-Everyone is worried about in migration...

0:32:000:32:06

..but maybe it would raise those numbers on Anglesey!

0:32:060:32:09

We're back to the previous question. Guto, what about these changes?

0:32:090:32:15

It would help if Elfyn was factually correct.

0:32:150:32:18

-Where was he incorrect?

-There are two seats safeguarded in Scotland.

0:32:180:32:22

Shetland, with the Liberals, and Western Isles, the SNP.

0:32:220:32:25

If Elfyn is suggesting the Conservative Government...

0:32:250:32:29

..is making a decision to safeguard the SNP, then fine.

0:32:290:32:32

It is a simple situation. I represent 46,000 people.

0:32:320:32:36

Elfyn represents 45,000 people.

0:32:360:32:39

In England, on average, MPs represent around 75,000 people.

0:32:390:32:43

There are seats in the north of England that are bigger.

0:32:430:32:47

Charles Kennedy's seat in Scotland is bigger than Belgium.

0:32:470:32:52

I haven't heard complaints he is ineffective in his patch.

0:32:520:32:55

The situation is all MPs will have a similar amount of people.

0:32:550:33:02

Something around 75,000. And to be honest, we in Wales...

0:33:020:33:07

..we also have AMs working in all these constituencies...

0:33:070:33:11

..with 20 policy matters devolved.

0:33:110:33:14

This change means we'll have the same amount of MPs per head...

0:33:140:33:19

..as in England, but we will also have an Assembly...

0:33:190:33:23

..which will legislate in 20 policy fields.

0:33:230:33:27

I can't see a sensible argument against it.

0:33:270:33:30

-Does it matter we'll lose ten?

-I could be one of the ten.

0:33:300:33:34

-My seat, Aberconwy, is likely to go.

-So what does it matter?

0:33:340:33:40

I think it's difficult to argue that Wales deserves...

0:33:400:33:44

..more MPs per head, especially as we have an Assembly.

0:33:440:33:49

We need a radical change. England needs its own parliament...

0:33:490:33:55

..and then the other countries come together...

0:33:550:33:59

..so there representation from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

0:33:590:34:04

That will then deal with the policies that affect everyone.

0:34:040:34:09

Just two quick points. 7.5% cuts in England...

0:34:090:34:14

-..25% in Wales - that's not right.

-That doesn't seem fair.

0:34:140:34:17

Let me finish my point. The second point...

0:34:170:34:22

..is we can cut the number of seats in London...

0:34:220:34:27

..when we have a full parliament.

0:34:270:34:29

The most important point is there was a speaker's conference...

0:34:290:34:34

..during the '40s which said Wales should never have fewer...

0:34:340:34:37

..than 38 seats. They're talking about 30.

0:34:370:34:40

The situation has changed. We have had devolution.

0:34:400:34:45

And we will need cuts further on down the line.

0:34:450:34:48

We could have five now and five later.

0:34:480:34:51

Elfyn's wrong on the speaker's conference too. It was 35.

0:34:510:34:57

We've already seen Scotland cutting from 72 to 59.

0:34:570:35:02

I would have agreed with Elfyn...

0:35:020:35:05

..had we not voted in favour of further devolution in May.

0:35:050:35:11

But we as a people have chosen to have a parliament in Cardiff...

0:35:110:35:15

..which can legislate. I think this is entirely reasonable.

0:35:150:35:18

There are elements of process in this.

0:35:180:35:21

As the National Assembly in Cardiff is strengthened...

0:35:210:35:25

..the need for so much representation in London...

0:35:250:35:29

..is sure to diminish.

0:35:290:35:32

And if the process means five now and maybe five later...

0:35:340:35:39

..people like Elfyn and Guto are in a better place to decide...

0:35:390:35:45

..on that process than someone like me.

0:35:450:35:48

But I'm looking forward to the day, I hope I will see it...

0:35:480:35:54

..when we do not have any MPs and it will all go to the Assembly.

0:35:540:36:00

Right. I think we'll bring that topic to an end for now.

0:36:060:36:10

We're going for a break before closing with two more questions.

0:36:100:36:14

Join us again in Amlwch after the break.

0:36:140:36:16

Welcome back. You're watching this week's Pawb a'i Farn.

0:36:300:36:35

We're at Amlwch leisure centre. Let's go to our next question...

0:36:350:36:39

..from Cerian Gruffydd.

0:36:390:36:41

Doesn't the fate of Peacocks this week prove...

0:36:410:36:47

..the Westminster Government's economic policy isn't working?

0:36:470:36:51

Doesn't the fate of Peacocks prove the Westminster Government's...

0:36:510:36:56

..economic policy is not working? Geraint Tudur, I'll begin with you.

0:36:560:37:02

To be honest, I wasn't aware we needed to hear about Peacocks...

0:37:020:37:07

..to know that the Government's economic policy doesn't work.

0:37:070:37:13

It's obvious there are major problems.

0:37:150:37:21

There is a debt that needs to be repaid.

0:37:210:37:24

But it seems to me there are double standards.

0:37:240:37:28

There are two pots of money at the Treasury.

0:37:280:37:31

They can nine billion from one to host an Olympics for a fortnight.

0:37:310:37:37

They can also fund the war in Afghanistan from one pot.

0:37:370:37:43

When it comes to care for our people and our communities...

0:37:430:37:50

..services, the NHS and so on, we're suddenly hit by poverty.

0:37:500:37:56

And these double standards causes people to be angry.

0:37:560:38:03

I think that Peacocks' problems stand outside...

0:38:040:38:08

..of the Government's economic policy.

0:38:080:38:13

We have a business culture and according to that culture...

0:38:130:38:20

..a company must constantly expand and improve on the previous year.

0:38:200:38:25

And do better than the year before that.

0:38:250:38:29

These companies are urged to expand and to grow and increase...

0:38:290:38:35

Isn't that what how we're supposed to succeed?

0:38:350:38:39

That is the capitalism David Cameron is talking about.

0:38:390:38:43

You see TV reports saying a company made 5% less profit this year.

0:38:430:38:48

The suggestion is made that this is a sign of failure.

0:38:480:38:53

The company may have still made £10 million in profit.

0:38:530:38:58

-Thank you. Mair?

-The sad thing about Peacocks' situation...

0:38:580:39:02

..is that it is a profitable company.

0:39:020:39:05

But the debt from trying to expand and the debts from the RBS bank...

0:39:050:39:12

..and that they have called in the debt...

0:39:120:39:16

..that has put them in this situation.

0:39:160:39:19

That is the sad thing, that the bailout provided for the banks...

0:39:190:39:24

..cannot be provided for a company like Peacocks.

0:39:240:39:27

It will be a great loss for communities in south Wales...

0:39:270:39:32

-..especially at the distribution centres.

-This is a regular complaint

0:39:320:39:36

The Government can help the banks, but no-one else.

0:39:360:39:40

-Yes...

-And why can't the banks help a company like Peacocks?

0:39:400:39:45

Yes. It's interesting.

0:39:450:39:47

I've met with RBS over recent months...

0:39:470:39:50

..at my office to try and persuade them to change their attitude.

0:39:500:39:54

Regarding Peacocks, we have to be careful how we look at it.

0:39:540:39:58

Peacocks is an example of failure...

0:39:580:40:00

..under the model developed by Gordon Brown.

0:40:000:40:03

They haven't failed because they have failed to grow...

0:40:030:40:09

..the reason they've failed is they were bought by venture capitalists.

0:40:090:40:13

They borrowed £240 million, which was affordable at the time...

0:40:130:40:18

..but is maybe no longer affordable.

0:40:180:40:20

The reason why they did that is Gordon Brown created a situation...

0:40:200:40:24

..where as a company you were paying 18% tax.

0:40:240:40:29

If you were cleaning the offices of such a company, you paid 20% tax.

0:40:290:40:33

He also promoted a situation where lending companies money paid off.

0:40:330:40:39

What is happening with Peacocks is that a business model...

0:40:390:40:43

..that worked in 2006 has failed in 2012.

0:40:430:40:46

It has nothing to do with any policy from the present Government.

0:40:460:40:50

You don't think the banks should have offered...?

0:40:500:40:53

As regards RBS, we need to consider what we want RBS to do.

0:40:530:40:57

If we want the taxpayers' investment repaid...

0:40:570:41:02

..we must decide if that is what we want.

0:41:020:41:05

If we want RBS to be responsible for safeguarding failing businesses...

0:41:050:41:10

-..that is another matter.

-And unemployment continues to rise.

0:41:100:41:14

Unemployment is continuing to rise, but it is worse on the Continent.

0:41:140:41:18

-That proves our policies are succeeding.

-It's disgraceful...

0:41:180:41:22

..RBS are pulling the plug on a company like Peacocks.

0:41:220:41:25

9,000 jobs down the drain.

0:41:250:41:27

Regardless, venture capitalists were succeeding until now...

0:41:270:41:32

27 million operating profits last year.

0:41:320:41:37

-I said that.

-Well, we agree on that. That's profit they made last year.

0:41:370:41:42

They tried to restructure the debt and RBS said no.

0:41:420:41:46

At the same time, they're offering a £1.2 million bonus...

0:41:460:41:50

..to the chairman of RBS and we own 80% of the company.

0:41:500:41:54

This government is happy because their City mates are making money.

0:41:540:41:59

It doesn't matter about the jobs. Thatcher didn't care either!

0:41:590:42:04

9,000 people going as a result of this. Pulling the plug.

0:42:040:42:08

-It's disgraceful.

-What would you have done?

0:42:080:42:11

The government owns 80% of the bank.

0:42:110:42:16

Surely there's a minister somewhere who can have a word and say...

0:42:160:42:20

"We're not happy with 9, 000 redundancies!"

0:42:200:42:24

If Elfyn had listened to my answer, the simple answer is...

0:42:240:42:28

..do we want the taxpayers' money repaid...

0:42:280:42:31

..or do we want to use RBS as a bank that goes round saving businesses?

0:42:310:42:35

That is a governmental decision.

0:42:350:42:38

As regards the bonus, the Prime Minister has announced today...

0:42:380:42:43

..that no-one at RBS will receive a bonus over £2,000.

0:42:430:42:46

It's important that Elfyn sticks to the facts.

0:42:460:42:49

He received £2,000 last year and it is going up this year.

0:42:490:42:54

You're wrong there. Guto's talking about repaying the taxpayer...

0:42:540:42:59

..as soon as possible, that reminds me of the Tories years ago...

0:42:590:43:04

..redundancies - a price worth paying.

0:43:040:43:08

they haven't changed at all.

0:43:080:43:10

If we live in an economy where Elfyn thinks money grows on trees...

0:43:100:43:14

..as Gordon Brown believed, fair enough.

0:43:140:43:17

The reason we have problems on the high street is over half the debt...

0:43:170:43:21

..of Europe's credit cards is in Britain.

0:43:210:43:24

We based our economic development on debt.

0:43:240:43:27

-If that's the way forward, fine.

-So people are to blame?

0:43:270:43:31

-We're too greedy.

-We're just as much to blame as the government.

0:43:310:43:35

-It's a greedy society.

-Economic development was based on debt...

0:43:350:43:40

..personal debt, business debt and governmental debt.

0:43:400:43:44

Elfyn can try and give us a fair story...

0:43:440:43:47

..but he's not living in the real world.

0:43:470:43:51

The economy's on the floor, confidence is down...

0:43:510:43:54

-..people are not shopping.

-They are repaying their debts.

0:43:540:43:59

If you're going to talk about greed, that started in the '80s.

0:43:590:44:03

That's when this feeling began that we had a right to everything.

0:44:030:44:09

And to turn round now, Guto, and say it is our fault...

0:44:090:44:14

..when society was urged to spend like crazy...

0:44:140:44:20

But the crazy spending comes from the Labour years, doesn't it?

0:44:200:44:24

-Labour were in power for 13 years.

-But it started in the '80s.

0:44:240:44:29

let's hear from Geraint.

0:44:290:44:32

As Mair said, there was a change in atmosphere during the Thatcher era.

0:44:320:44:37

People were being urged to live beyond their means.

0:44:370:44:41

-And there was a culture of debt...

-Have we become too greedy?

0:44:410:44:48

Well, we live.. A lot of people live beyond their means.

0:44:480:44:54

And that puts them in debt.

0:44:540:44:57

You have a situation as we have with Peacocks...

0:44:570:45:00

..where they have been urged to go with this debt...

0:45:000:45:07

..and suddenly the rug is pulled from beneath them...

0:45:070:45:10

-..and 9,000 people lose their jobs.

-Let's hear from the audience.

0:45:100:45:15

Where were those hands? Yes, what about you?

0:45:150:45:18

I'd say Peacocks is an example of the failure of capitalism...

0:45:180:45:22

..when it is not regulated.

0:45:220:45:25

Sometimes we need to step back and take a look at the problems.

0:45:250:45:29

If we look at energy for example, what is the problem?

0:45:290:45:34

Why do we need these huge companies for everything?

0:45:340:45:37

Why can't we have local producers?

0:45:370:45:39

There is plenty of work like that for young people.

0:45:390:45:42

Insulating homes - local craftsmen could be doing that.

0:45:420:45:47

We don't need to import skills from abroad.

0:45:470:45:51

I think it's important we start at our feet.

0:45:510:45:54

We'd need the world to be three times the size...

0:45:540:45:57

..for everyone to live in the way we live in this country.

0:45:570:46:01

-You asked the question.

-Unemployment is once again the issue.

0:46:010:46:06

We've talked about Wylfa B, but for those who are not interested...

0:46:060:46:10

..in that industry, what else is on offer?

0:46:100:46:13

At the moment, we're sat here... I'm lucky, I have a job...

0:46:130:46:18

..but it's an hour and a half away in Wrexham.

0:46:180:46:21

I travel there to make a living.

0:46:210:46:23

Personally, I'd love to stay on the island and have a family...

0:46:230:46:28

..but at the moment, there's no work. Where do I go?

0:46:280:46:32

-Nothing's being offered.

-Do you travel every day?

0:46:320:46:36

No. I travel at least twice a week...

0:46:360:46:41

..and I'm also there now and again too.

0:46:410:46:44

Right, where were we, over here?

0:46:440:46:47

What's the point of saving that money if we have to pay it out...

0:46:470:46:51

..to people on the dole? That doesn't work.

0:46:510:46:54

Going back to the '80s, what we're suffering was started by Thatcher.

0:46:540:46:59

She wanted everyone to buy a house.

0:46:590:47:02

You can't blame the events of 30 years ago.

0:47:020:47:05

He's blaming Gordon Brown, so we'll blame Thatcher!

0:47:050:47:08

I think that's where this feeling came from...

0:47:080:47:15

..that we had a right to all kinds of things...

0:47:150:47:18

..and we lost the roots of society.

0:47:180:47:22

And that does go back 30 years.

0:47:220:47:24

You look back and see things deteriorating back then.

0:47:240:47:28

In a way, this RBS business shows the failure...

0:47:280:47:32

..of the Government's economic policy.

0:47:320:47:35

They're trying to cut back too quickly.

0:47:350:47:38

RBS should consider unemployment as something to avoid.

0:47:380:47:44

Postponing the repayment should be an option to maintain balance.

0:47:440:47:48

The more you have unemployed, the more you pay out in benefit.

0:47:480:47:53

Guto, are you awake worrying at night about the failure of this policy?

0:47:530:47:57

No. If you look at the statistics, compared with the rest of Europe...

0:47:570:48:01

..performance is extremely good.

0:48:010:48:03

The situation is poor across Europe. Half our foreign market is European.

0:48:030:48:07

But as regards Thatcherism, I know we're obsessed with her in Wales...

0:48:070:48:12

..but throughout John Major's time, personal debt fell...

0:48:120:48:17

..banking regulations were changed under Gordon Brown...

0:48:170:48:20

..and personal debt grew. That is the truth.

0:48:200:48:23

Right. Sorry, but that is the end of the programme.

0:48:230:48:27

It's flown by. Thank you to the audience here in Amlwch...

0:48:270:48:31

..and to the panel. Next week we're in Newcastle Emlyn.

0:48:310:48:35

Until then, thank for watching and good night.

0:48:350:48:38

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