07/01/2016 Scotland 2016

The Chancellor warns there may be trouble ahead for the economy.

The Chancellor says the UK must prepare for rises in interest rates.

He warns 2016 will be a "mission critical" year for the UK economy.

A year on from the Charlie Hebdo massacre, MSPs defend

And the social entrepreneur who brought George Clooney

to Edinburgh talks about feeding refugees in Europe.

It's less than two months since George Osborne told us

Today he delivered a much gloomier message.

We're facing a "dangerous cocktail" of economic risks and must guard

Events today seemed to back up the Chancellor's worst fears -

global turmoil on the markets as oil prices continued

With Scotland's economy lagging behind the UK as a whole,

Laura Maxwell's been looking at the prospects for the year ahead.

A flicker of hope in a gloomy economy. Made in Glasgow, sales of

these candles continue to rise. This shop opened in October with plans

for further expansion this year. Well, I make no bones about it, we

have been in a recession for, well, 80 years, shall we say? There have

been tough times and some companies have not survived. We have been

lucky to survive. Consumers have money in their pocket and confidence

is returning. It has been slow, but things are looking good. Not

everyone is as confident. Especially the Chancellor who has decided that

who has been decidedly Quini in fact. Last year was the worst for

global growth since the crash and that she opens with a dangerous

cocktail of new threats from around the world. For Britain, the only

antidote to that is confronting complacency, delivering the plan

that we have set out. Anyone who thinks it is mission accomplished

for the British economy is making a grave mistake. At just one point --

0.1% growth in the last quarter, the economy of Scotland underperforms

the rest of the UK and it is experiencing some difficulties. The

unseasonably warm and wet weather over the last few months has

certainly dampened spirits here on the high street. This morning, Marks

Spencer announced their pre-Christmas sales were down almost

6%. Next have described their Christmas figures as disappointing.

That is not great news for those retailers, but more importantly

perhaps, is what those figures tell us about consumer confidence.

Business confidence as well is shaky. Especially with other

uncertainties on the horizon. Looking at 2016, obviously be half

the Scottish Parliament elections, the results of that I suppose are

uncertain and we are looking at a parliament with significant

tax-raising powers for the first time and the use of those powers by

the next Scottish Government could have material effect on doing

business in Scotland. We want to make sure that has continued to be

applied in a way that will make Scottish businesses competitive. It

is not just the Scottish election that could impact on business. There

is the small matter of a possible referendum on Europe. Perhaps the

first interest rate rise in almost a decade. So how do we overcome the

certainties? We have low productivity in the UK, we have

lower productivity in Scotland. The only way that we will get back to

2.5% growth on a continual basis is by raising productivity and have it

like a sharp focus on that point for three or four months and to come up

with policies which business and governments approved of and can

support. The global economy is far from

stable. How Scotland fares will depend on a raft of new fiscal

powers and whether or not a future Scottish Government is prepared to

use them. is Scottish Labour's

spokeswoman on the economy, Jackie Baillie, and from

the SNP, Kenneth Gibson, who's convener of Holyrood's

Finance Committee. Good evening. Kenneth Gibson, rather

gloomy words from the Chancellor today, quite a different tone from

the Autumn Statement, is he trying to prepare us for bad news to come?

I thought not, but it looks like it might be. The Finance Committee

which Jackie Baillie also sits on looked at evidence and one of the

great concerns that came across to me was the fact that they were .5%

increase in the interest rate which is possible this year would cost the

UK ?20 billion each year, that would have to be raised through tax or

spending cuts, so clearly has serious implications if it was to

take place. One Scotland, what with the implication be? The economy is

more sluggish year. Yes, it has grown steadily over the last few

years but obviously it is slightly less than that of the UK because of

the impact of the oil prices at this time and I noticed Jeremy talking

about productivity, the UK productivity has stayed the same

over the last few years but since 2007 the Scottish one has grown.

People have important concerns about this.

Jackie Baillie, is the Chancellor correct to warn of creeping

complacency and that we have to keep a tight rein on spending? I think he

is correct to one of the consequences that could lie ahead,

but his Autumn Statement was only in November and some of the things he

is now warning us about he knew then. I am concerned about the

impact on the Scottish economy. It is the case that our economy is

operating at a slower level than the rest of the UK. Why do you think

that is the case? There are a number of factors and I think that Jeremy

peat is correct. We need to do better at productivity and at jobs.

Compared to the rest of the duty in percentage terms we have fewer

people employed and more people unemployed and so we are not

performing as well against a range of measures. Kenneth Gibson is

correct to tell you that with oil at a staggering 32 Doreen -- $32

billion per barrel of oil, and the cost it takes to get it out of the

oil, then we have to look at the figures in the future. The Scottish

Government has indicated that growth has gone from in 2015 2.2% to 1.9%,

the expected to be 1.8% this year. I actually think when the GDP figures

come out we will see it as lower stomach and that really plays badly

for our economy and for consumer confidence. There are a host of new

powers coming down the track for the Scottish Parliament. What is the SNP

going to do? How will it use these powers to stomach the economy? Many

of these Ms Towers will not be available to us until April next

year. -- new powers. But we are doing quite a lot. We have eight

innovation centres that we are establishing. We are spending more

on research and development than many other countries in the world.

We have from the Chamber of Commerce and business that we have the most

competitive rates and profile in the entire duty, so it is a good place

to do business. We are the second best place in the UK for attracting

inward investment. It is not all doom and gloom, we have increased

exports and even have our cross shrinks, it is still growth.

Remember we had a 6% fall under the last Labour government in output. We

are not in that doom and gloom situation, but things could be

better. We must invest more in infrastructure and that is what we

will do. All of the indications are that things will get worse. I do not

want complacency from any government because if we act now, we can maybe

stabilise things. The disappointing thing is that despite the innovation

centres, all of the list of things that Kenny has outlined, growth is

declining. We are heading in the wrong direction in so many of these

indicators... What would Scottish Labour do? There has been talk about

making the wealthiest pay more. In things like tax, for example, but it

cannot be like that to stomach the economy. The experts will tell you

that if you want to crawl your economy you must invest in your

people and that is about education from the early stages right the way

through colleges and universities. Which will take time. Of course, it

is these goals of the nation that feed into the nation that feed into

housing Cecil and economy you have. We must look ahead to the industries

of the future, making sure we identified what they are because in

20 years' time, the type of jobs we work and will have completely

changed. We must look ahead and invest in our people to take care of

those opportunities. But as Kenny said, we must attract inward

investment. But that has led to fewer jobs. We want to see it work

in a way that increases the number of jobs available in Scotland. 3500

additional jobs in Scotland regarding inward investment last

year. The number of apprenticeships under the SNP has almost doubled

from 15,000 to some 20 7000. We are investing in skills. Would we not

expect the Scottish economy to perform better if the Scottish

Government had been still awaiting the economy? It is performing better

than would otherwise be the case. Because oil and gas is such a huge

sector, it has been having an impact. If you look at the gap in

terms of productivity and per capita and jobs and output in any since the

SNP has been in power between Scotland and England, all of these

gaps have shrunk. We have the second highest number of women employed in

the whole of the European Union. Our youth unemployed level is 9%

higher... Sorry, I should say my employment level. We are performing

better than the rest of the UK. We are out of time, I will have to be

that there at the moment. Thank you both for coming in this evening.

Thank you. Thank you. Today marks the anniversary

of the terrorist attack at the French satirical

magazine Charlie Hebdo. French President Francois

Hollande unveiled one of several new plaques that have

appeared across Paris to commemorate all 17 of those killed in a series

of attacks last January. Charlie Hebdo magazine is marking

the anniversary with it's aimed straight

at God, headlined, In Edinburgh, MSPs urged cartoonists

and satirists to continue to mock those who try

to limit freedom of speech. French-born MSP Christian Allard led

a debate in Holyrood earlier today Mr Allard called for the 7th

of January to be celebrated as Cartoonists' Day, and he joins me

now from our Aberdeen studio. Good evening to you. Good evening,

Shelley Jofre. Why do you think it is important to

defend the rate of cartoonists are publish satirical work?

What is important is when you see an attack like that of last year, it is

to stand shoulder to shoulder with the people of France and we did that

last year in the Scottish Parliament and then the French communities

around Scotland, Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh, and we have to do

that one year on. We want to change the way that we do things. To a

certain extent, it is great that sister Nicole magazine Charlie Hebdo

kept on doing exactly the same thing that they were doing before. --

satirical magazine. They have not kept doing the exact

same thing, I know that two of the chief cartoonist of the magazine

will no longer draw the Prophet Muhammad, but we saw God on the

front cover this week, so have lots to a certain extent the terrorists

achieved some of what they were looking for?

I am not somebody who buys Charlie Hebdo regularly, so I can not tell

you exactly what they have done. But it is important to make sure that

all of the cartoonists, not only in France, but here in Britain and

across the world are not afraid to drop what they want to draw. It is

important to remember those who perished last year, maybe to make

sure that cartoonists across the world get the backing from us and

understand that they are supported. We saw more terror in Paris today,

French police shooting dead a man trying to attack a police station,

apparently timed to coincide with the first anniversary of Charlie

Hebdo, does that make you feel at all uneasy when you are calling

essentially for the right to offend? I think it is very important that we

do not change the things that we do. What a terrorist wants to do is for

us to talk about them and teams to be that we do things, we must not do

this. Most importantly, on a day like today, one year on, we have to

remember the victims that I think President Hollande did just that.

Unveiling plaques across Paris. To remember those who died in the

offices of Charlie Hebdo and those who died in the Jewish supermarket.

It is so important that we do that, that we do not poetry and speak too

much of the terrorists, but talk about the victims instead and the

coming together of the people of France and the people across the

world. It was so emotional to see the responses here in Scotland when

it happened as the parliament came together again today and to show our

appreciation and making sure that we pass our solidarity with the

cartoonists across the world. It would not be a bad idea to have a

car to mistake on that particular day.

Christian Allard, thank you for joining us this evening.

Christian Allard, thank you for sandwich shop. They run a period

forward at work customers sandwich shop. They run a period

to a few people. The mood there was definitely very downbeat. How did

that contrast was Lesbos when you got to there? Lesbos was our end

destination. That is where a lot of the wreckage is first arrived,

coming on books and the from Turkey. -- the refugees first arrive. The

atmosphere was hopeful, people at the start of their journey. People

had a sense of the future that could lie ahead for them. I suppose that

was one of the sad things about it, seeing that will diminish over the

course of the journey that we did in reverse. Lots of families there? In

Lesbos, lots of kids, yeah. We brought a lot of practical things

but also Tories and things for kids, and is uplifting to see -- Tories

and things. About one third of your donations were for aid for refugees.

Your surprise at the level of the board? I didn't know what to expect.

The plan was to do a big Christmas dinner for homeless people on

Christmas Day, and that was really successful. This year we decided to

expand it and do it for the homeless again but also for refugees. A few

people said, charity begins at home, and all of that kind of thing. But

my view is, we are all one who monetary, and especially going there

and meeting all of these refugees individually in person, they are

just like you and me, they just come from a different place. -- we are

all one humanity. We are not gorgeous of the problem with some

food and warm clothing, but it was about trying to express our humanity

and reach out. So I was really delighted with the response and

delighted that such a large proportion was for refugees as well

the ball for -- as well as people on our own doorstep. However leisure

was George Clooney do you think? -- how influential? It was a bit of a

miracle in some ways. Our small family shop on broad Street, which

only three years ago I was making sound use and serving customers,

suddenly the global media descended. -- making sandwiches. It put us in a

great position to make a success of the Christmas campaign. We got

George recording a message saying he is the handing over the first ?5

which really kick-started it. I think it give it a big test for

sure. There are already a lot of big charities supporting refugees. What

made you think it was important that Social Bite sent their own, by? --

of their own convoy. The thing people liked about what we did is we

raise the money in week before Christmas and did the arrangement

with trespassed, loaded the bands Christmas Eve, and as everybody gets

back from the Christmas break the supplies are deliverers. It was very

immediate. Is this a one-off or more you be continuing at? We have a big

platform. So you know, there is a platform there, and if the refugee

issue is still prevalent next year we may do the same thing again, we

can use it to try and address any issue that we see fit. Christmas is

a time where people are very conscious that they are indulging

with families in Sudan of gifts, it is the time that people are

typically prepared to support these cans of things. -- with student and

lots of gifts. Joining me now to talk about some

of the day's other news are former Labour

MSP Pauline McNeill and the Observer's Scotland editor,

Kevin McKenna. Welcome to you both. The foreign

affairs select committee today published transcripts of phone calls

from 2011 showing that Tony Boyer told Colonel Gaddafi to step aside

and accept a peaceful change of Government to prevent violent

protest. -- Tony Blair. As we can see, the two were allies. Only

offered to help the dictator work with the US and EU to resolve

crisis. The chair of the Middle East and North Africa for, what do you

make of these transcripts? They are fascinating. The dialogue between

Gaddafi and Tony Blair, Gaddafi is trying to tell Tony Blair at that

you think the violence is cause by me, but there are other forces at

play here. What has been happening across Europe with the rise of

Al-Qaeda and now Isis, that is what he was seeing. I am not sure that

Tony Blair really picked up on what he was trying to achieve, peace in

Libya. The present think that is talked about, the Arab Spring, there

was something much more deadly going on underneath that. I think it is

really important to study them and get some idea of where it all

started. And the chair of the select committee said today that perhaps

Gaddafi's warning was wrongly ignored. Do you think he has got a

point to there? No, I don't think he does. Remember at this time we have

already seen the attacks in London. We had seen the attacks of 911 that

would beggar belief that our intelligence agencies, even though

they have not had a great track record recently, would not have

known by then that of course there was going to be an escalation of the

war by certain sects and militants as one -- is lamb, which we like to

call it, to the European mainland. If you're seeing this to save that

we have -- if he is saying this to say we have missed an opportunity

five or six years ago, if you read Aston in 2011 did he think there

would be an escalation of exercises, militarism by certain groups and

factions committed to militant Islam in mainland Europe, you would have

said, of course. He says the evidence suggests Western

policymakers were less perceptive than Gaddafi. Do you think that is a

fear comment? Yes. I see similarities to what happened at the

beginning of the Syrian war where whatever the responsibilities of

resident Assad wear at that time, he made the same claims as Gaddafi, and

there is truth in that. We are now in a situation is up where written

has switched sides -- Britain has switched sides. It does show the

importance of observing and monitoring correctly what is going

on in this part of the world. As George Osborne today is warning in

his view of serious threats to Britain resulting from that. Let's

move on, because Tony Blair is not the only former prime minister

making headlines today. Gordon Brown was in Edinburgh earlier calling on

Scots to go to remain in the European Union. The case for the EU

is about jobs, prospects for young people, security for the future, and

I believe the best role as Frost to be leading in Europe and not leaving

Europe. -- is for costs to be leading. The Scottish National Party

want to use co-operation in Europe as a basis for noncooperation in the

United Kingdom. They say they support the principle operations

will operate in, but they do not want to support the rest of the

United Kingdom. However learn shall do you think Gordon Brown will be

this issue? Not very. I still think his influence in the referendum was

exaggerated. Since then he has had plenty to say about Jeremy Corbyn

and what might happen to the Labour Party if Corbyn gets elected. He

strikes me as being somebody who has tried and failed to become a

statesman when he was in office, and now he is trying to be a statesman

with whatever main statesman-like issue is abroad these days. If it

going to be tricky, do you think, to have him and Nicola Sturgeon being

on the same side of this debate? It shouldn't be tricky, because there

is too much at stake for party politics to get in the road of that.

I personally thought it was a significant contribution,

particularly for Labour people who perhaps, looking back at the

referendum, want to make sure that Scottish Labour has its own campaign

around Europe. Some of the points he made about the importance of the

number of jobs dependent on Europe, I think somebody has got to

kick-start that debate pretty soon if there is any possibility there

will be a referendum this year. I certainly think labour movement, and

the language that Gordon Brown uses is the sort of language that gets

Labour Party people into the attic about these things. And briefly

before we go, I would like to briefly talk about Telegraph

journalist Dan Hodges, who almost a true to his word after he lost the

bet for the last election. In 2012 he said, if you get break the 6%

mark at the next election, I will streak naked down Whitehall. -- if

Ukip break the 6%. Today his moment came. Would you place a bet on what

Ukip are going to do at this election? You could be strategic. I

can think of some male journalists in the Scottish political lobby who

if they threatened to do that in the event of Ukip getting seven

percentage points would see a massive decimation of Ukip support

if they threatened to run naked anyway. They got 12% in the UK

election - I can see them getting anything like that in Scotland.

Andrew will be back on Monday, same time.