20/06/2016 Scotland 2016

With just days to go till the referendum,

claim and counter claim on what would happen

if England votes to leave, but Scotland votes to remain?

In a heated TV debate, deeply divided opinion

on whether a Scottish vote to stay would lead to a second

Out on the campaign trail, the health service

Would a Remain vote benefit the NHS or cost it millions?

And missing from the green benches, but her memory lives on.

We're in the final countdown to the vote that will decide

whether we stay or whether we go from the European Union.

We've heard a lot in recent weeks from south of the border

about the issues that matter, but tonight, for the first time,

there was a live TV debate here in Scotland.

And yes, the big issues of immigration and the economy

But there was also an opportunity to discuss what might happen

in the event that Scotland votes to Remain and England

Listening to it all was our very own Nick Eardly.

Hello. We heard Kezia Dugdale and Joanna Chery united on the case for

Remain but when it came to the question of a second independence

referendum, opposing views? It has been an interesting characteristic

of the campaign especially in Scotland but more widely across the

UK at certain times. The people are on the same side, but disagree

fundamentally on aspects of what their case actually means. Tonight

it was what would happen if the UK as a whole votes to leave but

Scotland votes to remain? Castor mind back to the Scottish election,

we saw the interview from Kezia Dugdale were she said she might

consider her opposition to Scottish independence if there was a vote to

leave the EU against Scotland's well. Tonight however she was not as

ambiguous, she has clearly made up her mind and here is what she had to

say. I believe very strongly, just as I did during the independence

referendum that Scotland's future is better in the UK and especially if

we were to leave the EU and I do hope that we do not, that

relationship becomes even more important and I will be even more

drawn to campaigning to remain in the UK. Unsurprisingly, Joanna Chery

disagreed and she said her party had said that it would be a change in

circumstance, but she also was asked about whether or not the currency

question would have to be revisited, whether or not Scotland if they

wanted to stay in the EU but outside the UK, would have to change its

mind on whether it used the pound or the euro and here is what she had to

say. It is simply ridiculous to think that an independent Scotland

would not be welcome in the European Union. We would have to look at the

situation. You cannot expect me to make a decision about that now. We

are about to make a major decision. We would need to look at the

economic conditions. We might not want to be tied to the pound if it

nosedives after a Brexit. Perhaps not all SNP politicians would

support keeping the pound, the currency argument that was used in

2014. There was also the former Deputy Leader of the SNP, someone

who wants to leave the EU arguing that the case he has made all his

life, for Scottish independence, there is no guarantee that it would

come about because there is no commitment to it in the SNP

manifesto. He basically said that the mandate is not there and will

not be there until at least 2021 and only then if the SNP win a majority.

Inevitably the economy and immigration both featured

heavily in the debate...again former SNP deputy leader Jim Sillars

and Conservative Lord Forsyth on the same side for Leave

but taking a different position from others who want a Brexit?

Yes. The key thing that Jim Sellers and Lord Forsyth wanted to do was do

what they number of people have tried to do on believe side, they

wanted to distance themselves, from Nigel France, specifically distance

themselves from that controversial Breaking Point poster. Let us listen

to what they had to say -- Nigel Farage. I thought it was

particularly stupid, it confused to things, refugees and economic

migrants. I would like to see us being able to do more on refugees

and that means being able to control the numbers coming into our country

which we need to do if we leave the European Union. People have

different reasons for wanting to leave, we are not all Nigel Farage,

Levy tell you. APPLAUSE. And I think, if the Leave

side loses on Thursday, he will be primarily responsible for the

disgraceful way he has conducted the argument on immigration. Lord

Forsyth also said in the debate tonight that he is pro-immigration,

he wants to see the UK taking more refugees but he argued that it would

only be by controlling what you do in the EU that you could balance

that out and allow more immigrants from outside the EU and more

refugees in the long term. For the Remain side, both Kezia Dugdale and

Joanne Cherry arguing that immigration is good for Scotland and

that in some parts of Scotland, you need more people, so immigration

might not be a bad thing. One thing that Vote Leave have picked up one

is Kezia Dugdale being asked whether not she agreed with Jeremy Corbyn

that there could be an upper cap on immigration as long as the UK was in

the EU and she said she did agree and I expect you will hear more of

that in the coming days. Thank you. Well, out on the campaign

trail both sides stepped up their efforts to win over those

who are still undecided how The First Minister told nurses that

leaving the EU would end up But UKIP's Scottish leader said

Nicola Sturgeon couldn't be trusted. Here's our political

editor Brian Taylor. Tried yet true, this referendum

really matters and so it has divided opinion across Scotland and the UK,

although perhaps in different silos. Nicola Sturgeon. The referendum is

dominant and so addressing the Royal College of Nursing congress in

Glasgow, the First Minister took care to make own position playing. I

will be voting to remain in the EU on Thursday and I hope others will

do so as well. She told the nurses that British exit would damage the

NHS as economic decline would result in spending cuts and she her case. I

think it is still looking clothes across the UK which is why it is

important that everyone who wants to remain part of the world's biggest

thing, it am protect our own freedom of travel, to protect the rights of

workers and to protect the notion that independent contraries of the

modern world come together to work together for the greater good, that

is important to vote Remain. In Edinburgh, Leave supporters seek

backing from the public. Give us that wink. Ever obliging, David

Cockburn follows photographic advice and says that Nicola Sturgeon cannot

be trusted on the NHS as her own record is poor. For him this

referendum is about choice and about the UK regaining control. My message

is vote to leave the European Union, it is in the interest of Scotland,

we get our fishing limits back, decides who runs our country, not

run by an unelected bureaucracy in Brussels but by our own Parliament

in Hollywood. In Westminster as well, make sure that we make our own

decisions and we can throw people out once every five years. There has

been talk that Scotland could be driven from the EU against the

wishes of the people, how about the other way around? Is a possible that

Scotland could the England? It looks like it is a close run thing, that

is why our message is to make sure you exercise your vote. I hope that

scenario does not arise, just as I hope that the scenario of Scotland

being taken out against her will does not arise. Then there is

Baroness Warsi, she has switched from Leave to Remain accusing Ukip

of peddling hate with its Breaking Point poster. David Cockburn asks

who she is? She does not seem to like the ballot box, she seems to

levitate without any reference to a ballot box. I heard she had left the

Spice Girls. Snubbing spice said she was never in the Spice Girls in the

first place. Who am I to say? He is entitled to say and so are they all,

primarily so are you, the voters, this Thursday.

So with just three full days of campaigning left,

is the likely result still too close to call?

As ever, Professor John Curtice has been crunching the latest

numbers and joins me now from our London studio.

Hello, John. Two new polls out, is still too close to call? If you

believe those opinion polls it certainly is. We have one poll from

you got done over the internet which last Sunday put Remain slightly

ahead and now they put Leave slightly ahead by just two points.

Meanwhile we have another phone poll for the Telegraph, that and months

all responders, the figures that the pollsters prefer to quote, that just

has the Remain side two points ahead. Given that phone polls

usually get better figures for Remain, that two point lead looks a

bit too narrow and fragile for the comfort of David Cameron. The

average of the two, 50-50, that is pretty much what the polls were

saying at the weekend. In fairness to the Remain side, things do not

look quite so bad as they did last time last week, when we had a whole

slew of polls, even telephone polls suggesting that Leave had pulled

ahead and that seems to have moved back, but some of the more

optimistic interpretations remain, especially the polls at the weekend

that the public were moving back towards Remain, that the fear of the

status quo is kicking in and maybe what ever affect the murder of Joel

Cox had, this has boosted Remain. It does not seem to have gone any

further. If the polls are to be believed, it looks as though it

could be tight -- Jo Cox. Scotland stronger than Europe could see that

Scots could swing the vote towards Remain, is that backed up by the

polls? If we are looking at the UK wide result, that is conceivably

close to 50 slash 50, certainly Remain might win with them no more

than 52% of the vote, we are in the territory where it is quite possible

that a majority of people in England would have voted to leave, maybe

also in Wales, but that the UK as a whole not will vote to stay because

Scotland probably together with Northern Ireland, have voted to

remain. If the polls are right, in that territory where that outcome is

certainly a possibility. What other -- what other polls telling us

between the difference of how young people might vote and older people?

One of the persistent differences in this referendum, younger people wish

to remain for the most part, old people wish to leave. There is

another big division, graduates wished to remain, people with little

educational qualifications wish to leave. This is not just about

whether or not we want to remain part of an intergovernmental

government called the European Union, it is playing at a major

still sold division and for the most part on the one hand,

stereotypically young graduates, the kind of people who are comfortable

with and sometimes profit from that process of globalisation, that

increasingly interconnected world of which the EU is part and at the

other end of the spectrum, older people, with little education

finding the immigration rather uncomfortable and are not sure that

they themselves profit from it economically, this is a referendum

about a big social and economic division in our society, not just

about the European Union. With three days to go, it is still all to play

for. If any of the campaigners on either side are thinking, I could

take a couple of days off and put my feet up, I think the advice has to

be, do not. It looks as though this is a referendum that could go down

to the wire and that means that both sides are pretty close, both in with

a serious chance and that we may, all of us, have quite a long night

on June the 23rd if we do stay up to watch it, because on these kind of

figures, it could be quite a while before we know the eventual outcome.

Now, if you believe the opinion polls, young people are twice

as likely as pensioners to back the case to Remain.

But, and it s a pretty big but, they're almost half as likely

Well, joining me hopefully to shed some light are two 18-year olds

who definitely are planning to vote on Thursday.

For Remain, here in the studio is Erin McAuley and for Leave

from our Edinburgh studio, Duncan Wilson.

Welcome to both of you this evening. Ereen, why do you think young people

are far less likely to vote? It is untrue because if you look at these

statistics and the registration to vote, we are championing it. Young

people are championing register to vote so I think there will be a good

turnout. Do you feel like your friends, the people you talk to are

engaged in this campaign? There is a different atmosphere compared to the

independence referendum. In the UK widely, young people are definitely

going to turn out and vote and championed this because it is our

future. It is asked who will be affected the most. It is my

generation, generations below us. It is a massive vote because we will

have to deal with the consequences. Duncan, have you found excitement

amongst your friends regarding this poll? Not particularly. It has been

immediate friends in the Leave campaign. But if there is any

disengagement the young people it is that we don't have a firm connection

with the European Union. Hardly anyone can name their European

member of Parliament and many people feel it does not affect them. That

is one of the worrying thing about this. The European Union has a

tremendous effect on the people of this country and some people don't

realise it. You are engaged, you are a student. What is it that makes you

want to vote for Britain to stay? There is a variety of reasons. As a

young woman, remaining in the European Union will give me the

protection at work for equal pay. That is not guaranteed if we come

out of the European Union. Secondly, in a world that needs to tackle

climate change on terrorism, we are stronger and safer being part of the

European Union. There is so much it gives us, especially the young

people, we need to protect our working rights. Duncan, stronger and

safer together? No. Workers' rights, women's rights can be decided on a

national level. As for terrorism and climate change, we don't need to be

part of the European Union. We celebrated the signing of Magna

Carta and it said we should set our own laws and taxes. We have

surrendered that to the European Union. There are five main

presidents of the European Union. All of them are white and

middle-aged. We can promote gender equality, we don't need the European

Union about. We definitely do need it for gender diversity. Britain is

undemocratic. We have a House of Lords and a monarchy that is

undemocratic. To say we don't have elected representatives in the

European Union is nonsense. Do you have confidence that a UK government

would protect all the rights? No, I do not have confidence. The UK

government wants to scrap young people's working rights and working

rights in general. We have been working to protect the trade union

Bill. Briefly, Duncan? If you want to protect the rights from this

government, vote them out. You cannot do that with the European

Union. The European Council and European commission are wholly

unelected and we need to take control of our country's destiny.

Thank you both very much. MPs and peers earlier today paid

tribute to Labour MP Jo Cox, who was killed in her constituency

in West Yorkshire on Thursday. Parliament had been in recess

for the EU referendum but was recalled for a packed

session to remember Mrs Cox. Her husband Brendan

and their two children were in the public gallery to hear

MPs' speak and her parents visited the floral tributes

in Parliament Square. A day of dignity and reflection.

Tears, affection and humour as MPs remembered one of their own, taken

from them so suddenly last week. The chamber of the Commons packed.

Nearly every MP wore a white rose in tribute to Jo Cox's Yorkshire

heritage. On the Labour benches where Mrs Cox used to sit was an

empty space filled only with a white and red rose. Jo was murdered in the

course of her duty. Serving constituents in need. She fought for

them, just as she fought for others. At home and abroad. Her community

and the whole country have been united in grief, and is united in

rejecting the well of hatred that killed her. We pay tribute to a

loving, determined, passionate and progressive politician who epitomise

the best of humanity and he proved so often the power of politics to

make our world a better place. We invited ourselves 40 with the

Russian ambassador in his London residence. With clever charm, but

steely determination, this five foot bundle of old-fashioned Yorkshire

common-sense dressed him down for his country's 40 and cynicism in

Syria. Jo was an inspired and inspiring colleague. At the time we

first met, Jo, only in her 20s, was heading up Oxfam advocacy office in

Brussels. She was a joy to work with. But last, let me say this, and

you MP will be elected, but no one can replace a mother. The question

is that this house has considered the tributes to Jo Cox. At the end,

spontaneous applause. MPs lining up behind the speaker to walk to a

church near Parliament to further remember Jo Cox. As they left the

Commons, eyes turning up to the public gallery where her family were

sitting. And the many, a friendly wave. It seemed aimed to draw and

appropriate thing for adults to do the two young children who have lost

their mum. Joining me now to discuss today's

news we have Stephen Naysmith, the social affairs

correspondent of The Herald, Nice to see you both this evening.

Just sticking with Jo Cox for a moment and the recall of Parliament,

do you think that her death has actually changed the tone of debate

this week? I think it is hard to tell, it will be hard to tell and we

won't know if it influences the outcome, but it has changed the

tone. It has crystallised what a lot of people were feeling. I have heard

from friends and relatives in England and Wales about a

nationalistic feeling that was making some people feel uneasy about

the debate, but from the other side of aggressive campaigning. It has

allowed people to focus on that a bit. It certainly has changed at the

turn of the debate. People who I have been speaking to you who have

been horrified by the nasty nurse, the vitriol that has been directed

from one side to the other backwards and forwards through this debate and

people really hoping for a more respectful conversation about the EU

referendum. -- Knost in us. I think we are seeing that. Thankfully a

more muted response. Nigel Farage a bit miffed today. He thinks there

has been attempts to link their campaign with the killing just for

political ends. He has directly accused David Cameron. I don't think

people have seen that, I don't think that is what has happened. Nigel

Farage has said that the poster with a queue of migrants, that would not

have been an issue if it had not been for the death of Jo Cox. That

is not true, not least that Jo Cox's husband tweeted it was vile the

morning before she was attacked. It was always going to be a

controversial image. Tonight, the debate on BBC Scotland, it was said

that we are not all Nigel Farage. It seemed they wanted to distance

themselves from Ukip. He said if it went all the way, he would blame

Nigel Farage. Already people are taking up positions for what might

happen on the might of the 23rd. The first big TV debate in Scotland

about the EU referendum. Inevitably, a second Scottish referendum came up

as an issue. Do you think that some, especially SNP voters are confused

about which way to vote to get the result they want? It did come up in

the debate, this idea that if you you want to see Scottish

independence, you should be voting Leave, despite the fact it is not

the SNP's position. It is a little confused. I don't think in the end

it will have a big bearing on how people will vote. And it was

suggested by Lord Forsyth that if you did not want a referendum then

you ought to be voting Leave. I think it is intensely confusing for

people and I just hope people are voting on the issue on the table,

answering the question that is asked of them. The other issue about that

is it will be hard to tell what will happen in the final days of the

campaign. In the Independent referendum there was a surge back

towards the status quo, despite what the earlier polls had said. With the

EU it is different. I then think there is a passionate attachment to

it. We have another big TV debate tomorrow. Boris Johnson going

head-to-head with Ruth Davidson. How do you think that will go? The

Telegraph is reporting if Boris becomes prime minister, she will

move to make the Scottish Tories more separate from Westminster. It

is interesting, isn't it? Still three days to go before the vote and

people are anticipating what will happen after the vote. It's almost

as if the outcome doesn't matter, it is what positions people will take

and certainly, I would think, in the Conservative party south of the

border very definitely you are going to be looking at feathers really

flying. There will be quite a lot of arm healed wounds. And we heard

Nicola Sturgeon Saint Brexit could have consequences for the NHS. Tom

Harris, director of Scottish Vote Leave, said she was ignoring the

needs of the health service. The NHS mean so much to people on both sides

of the border that it is not a surprise to me that it gets drawn in

with a view to one side or the other trying to claim it as their own. I

think, however, these issues probably resonate more south of the

border than they do north of the border, would be my very strong

impression of it. And, of course, as usual with the EU referendum debate,

you have one side making a claim, that other side saying it is wrong

and people are still undecided. There are still a great many of

them. I met someone today he was explaining that they are still

undecided and they did not know what it would take to make them choose

one way or the other. The NHS is a good example of that because the

Leave campaign will say that the money we give to Europe we can save

and spend on the NHS and migrants will put pressure on the NHS. But

the Remain campaign will say we get workers from the EU. So it is

difficult. I'm afraid there we must leave it. I will be back tomorrow at

the usual time. Join me then if you can. Until then, goodbye.

After months of campaigning and debating,