27/06/2016 Scotland 2016

Tonight on Scotland 2016, we've got lots of questions.

A collective meltdown at Westminster following the Brexit vote,

The defeated Prime Minister is back in the Commons

as his successor will make the break.

I will be seeking to reach out and talk to European institutions and

other member states. But here, Nicola Sturgeon

is already pursuing It's being described

as the worst political crisis Even then though, we

were a united country At the despatch box where

Churchill once stood, the crestfallen Prime Minister told

MPs the vote to withdraw from the EU A new team of civil servants

is being set up to deal Here's our political correspondent,

Nick Eardley. The decision taken in 1975 by this

country to join in the Common Market has been reversed by this

referendum to leave the EU. It is hard to think of a more

extraordinary weekend in Following the referendum

result, the Prime think the country requires fresh

leadership to take it The Leader of the

Opposition is facing an open revolt and sterling has

fallen to a 31-year low. The referendum result

has sparked a range Delight for those who supported

Brexit, despair for those Britain's future has

been mulled over for all weekend here in

the But today was a chance

for the Government and MPs to say what they think should

happen now. The cabinet met this morning

and agreed the creation of a new EU unit in Whitehall

which will bring together officials on policy expertise from across the

Cabinet Office, Treasury, Foreign Clearly, this will be the most

complete and most important task that the British civil service has

undertaken in decades. But he wouldn't take

all the decisions All of the key decisions will have

to await the arrival of However, there is a lot

of work that can be For instance, the British and Irish

governments meet this week to work through the challenges relating to

the common border area. The SNP's Angus Robertson was defiant. He

echoed many of Nicola Sturgeon's arguments about what it would mean

for Scotland. We are a European country and we will stay a European

country. If that means we have to have an independence referendum is

to protect Scotland, then so be it. Jeremy Corbyn is facing the most

serious crisis of his leadership. He accused Leave campaigners of making

promises they couldn't keep, but also hit out at his own critics. Our

country is divided and the country will thank neither adventures in

front of me nor those behind for indulging in internal manoeuvring at

this time. A show of support for Mr Corbyn outside parliament to night.

The battle for control of the Labour Party. Doubtless other political

battles to follow. The First Minister has told BBC's Colin she'll

be speaking to the Boulter to find coming grad in their efforts to

maintain the links with the European Union. A short time ago I spoke to

the Scottish minister for Europe. You have been meeting members of

European nations in Scotland today. What have they told you? I have the

chance today to meet with mems of the Polish committee in Scotland and

also people from the Portuguese community. In both cases, the main

theme arising was uncertainty. People were uncertain about their

future, their right of residency, their ability to hire staff, about

what would happen to the freedom of movement of people. Would I

continue? Would access to a free European market continue? These are

all questions they were and sink and unfortunately, there are questions

the UK Government has not offered answers to. And we died of racist

incidents down south. Any similar thing happening here in Scotland? --

we heard of racist incidents. No. I think it is fair to say that members

of the EU nation communities within Scotland feel hurt and distressed in

some cases by what has been going on and by the tone of the debate. I do

not see any evidence at the moment of outbreaks of real unpleasant

behaviour, but we are not complacent about that, we don't imagine

Scotland is immune from this in any way. Certainly, it is not something

we want to tolerate in a way. We know Scotland wants to try to

maintain its links with the European Union and there's been an

interesting approach from brought and they want to maintain some kind

of link with the EU. What has been happening there? What exactly could

be planned? It is too early to anticipate. The approach was made I

their chief minister to the Scottish Government and that is something I

know they will respond to. But there is no formal Scottish response to

that situation. What I understand from the point of view of the

residents there, but difficult stash might be the vote has been

difficult. I think the theme that was coming through today though was

that people were volunteering information to me that they wanted

to stay in the European Union, that they wanted Scotland to stay in the

European Union for their businesses, families and their future. To that

end, Nicola Sturgeon says she wants to maintain those links. Will she

have some with. Tour of European capitals like David Cameron did when

he was trying to have that renegotiation? , Certainly engaging

at all levels. Today, I met the consular call in Edinburgh and had a

frank discussion with them about some of the issues we were talking

about. I am sure there will be a Government engagement with

representatives of European countries in Scotland. I am sure

there will be a programme of events. We are in early days, but this is

all being planned. So you are proactively seeking these types of

talks? The Government has made it clear we want to keep up every

possible channel of medication whether consular, diplomatic or

Government to Government. We want to make sure that in the coming months,

all channels of communication are kept up with our European partners

and with the European Union. D within the First Minister will want

to meet with the president of the commission as well? I can't

speculate what will go in her diary, but I do note that the First

Minister herself is committed to this process, this conversation. As

part of the conversation, the Cabinet Secretary for the rural

economy was meeting ministers in Luxembourg today. He named their

money was speaking to Reuters. He says that over the past 24-hour,

senior officials in Europe have said they'd like to see Scotland as the

28th member states. Is that they are planning to give names. Would you

like to give us some names of these officials who may want to see an

independent Scotland in the EU? You won't be surprised to know I'm not

going to speculate and named names of individuals further than has been

talked about so far. I'm not into position to do that. But the

Scottish Government has shown leadership in this matter and the

situation in which the UK Parliament is in disarray with pretty much

everything, but the Scottish Government has, I think, been

praised for the fact we have a clear stands on Europe which is that we

value the contribution of people from other countries who have made

Scotland at their home and we want Scotland to remain in the EU and

that the Government will keep open every option to discuss ways to find

a solution that will ensure that happens. The people I've been

speaking to today, people are running businesses in Scotland,

people who've made Scotland their home are unambiguous that they see

the solution to their problems as being Scotland remaining within the

European Union. But the outlook for this diplomatic mission is maybe not

terribly good in a way and I suppose you've got the referendum as the

last resort as the First Minister was saying yesterday. And I suppose

that is maybe what you are looking at, a referendum, at the end of the

day? The First Minister has made plain that we need to defend

Scotland's interest and everything we do will be based around that. We

recognise the skull and's interests are being served by the European

Union and therefore as the First Minister said, everything is on the

course of this week with Parliament meetings to reach out across as

miniature additional political divide in Scotland as we can to make

clear everything is on the table and up for discussion. The aim and hope

we all share is that Scotland remains entering the connection and

benefits from a connection we have with Europe. You mention Parliament

and that emotion on Europe will be debated tomorrow and you're looking

at support from Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens. Does that add to

your case? I think it strengthens the argument we are making, that

Scotland has clearly voted to remain in the EU. That is not some position

that has just been arrived at by one political party. It is a cross-party

consensus. I hope it is building around the position that Scotland

has a voice, they have expressed their view, not only did 62% of

people in Scotland vote to remain in the European Union, but

impressively, every single region in Scotland voted to Remain. I hope

that is reflected in the tone of what we debate in Parliament this

week. Speaking of tone and away you go about this, the First Minister

gave an interview yesterday and there were differing views about

what she was trying to say. Perhaps the clearest thing was she was

looking to frustrate Brexit legislation in the Scottish

parliament is coming from Westminster. Do you think you are

looking maybe at those delaying tactics? Some of the questions asked

at the weekend were around specific things to do with letters of consent

Motion is to use the jargon... But addition that the Scottish

Parliament has to have its consent sought when legislation is put

through by Westminster that affect the rights and responsibilities of

the Scottish parliament and affect areas that are under devolved

combatants. There's a whole legal and constitutional debate to be had

around that. It is right that we raise the issue, that the Scottish

parliament will have a view in this and even the Prime Minister has

access to the Scottish Government and other devolved governments will

have a view in this and they have a right to be heard and they will be

heard this week. So many questions

following the vote. David Bell, professor of economics

at the University of Stirling. Good evening. Thank you for joining

me. Have you ever seen a shot like this? No, this is unprecedented. In

my reasonably long lifetime I've seen nothing like this. We have had

a big hit on domestic stocks which hits People's pension funds. We have

had the US dollar pound at the exchange rate and drop by 11%. We've

also lost our triple-A rating as far as bonds and Government that is

concerned. We've seen Boris Johnson trying to make light of what has

been happening on the stock markets. Should he be listened to in that

sense? Not particularly. The stock market is a mixture of companies

which work mostly overseas and some of which do quite well when the

pound falls. But the domestic companies, their valuations have

been falling and that affects peoples pensions. If you had one

before, it is likely it is worth less now. You mention premonitions,

what about mortgages and general prices in the shops, petrol prices

and so on? The foreign exchange rate will come

through quite quickly. More slowly into food prices. We will see a rise

in the rate of inflation compared with where it has been the past few

years. That may be an opportunity for businesses in Scotland and

elsewhere, because British, Scottish goods will be cheaper relative to

those from overseas. You were watching Alasdair Allan from the

Scottish Government, trying to maintain link with the European

Union, the Scottish Government, maybe keeping trade links if there

is Brexit, how possible do you think that is? It will be tricky, I am not

an expert in constitutional law, but my reading is it will be difficult.

There is a precedent, the Greenland, Denmark case and so on. But quite

different from the Scottish case. It remains to be seen but my guess is

it will be difficult. I said to Alasdair Allan, last resort, if the

attempt does not work, another referendum on independence, which

was clear in the manifesto. Looking at the economy of Scotland, how

might an independent Scotland fare under Brexit, but being able to stay

in the EU if possible? It would be tricky. We are in a difficult fiscal

situation because of the fall in the oil price. Last year the deficit was

14.9 billion. 9.7% of Scottish GDP. If you go into the EU, the rules say

generally that you have to commit to joining the euro and if you commit

to joining the euro, you have to pay what is called the Maastricht

criteria -- ovate. The deficit must be no more than 3% of GDP. It would

mean Scotland has to find a ground ?10 billion worth less public

spending it currently has. Some of the imputed stuff like defence,

which is not really happening in Scotland, 3 billion of that.

Scotland by not have defence forces. It is not a real cost at the minute.

We might refuse to take any debt, which would have consequences. It

would save another 2.7 billion. If you are looking for ?10 billion in

total, in terms of a cut, to put it in perspective, that is worth 70% of

the welfare budget, all spending on state pensions, unemployment

benefits, these issues. I suppose it depends on timing whether Scotland

could be independent in the EU or whether it would have to reapply but

if Scotland was independent in the EU, there could be benefits in terms

of financial services. One thing to say is the oil price might recover

which would make the finances of Scotland look better but it is true

if Scotland was part of the EU, it might, and England not, there might

be an opportunity to attract business from south of the border

into a comparable business climate in Scotland. That is the key for

Scotland, the oil price. If this had been three years ago we would have

looked at a positive scenario? Yes, and the fall in the exchange rate

should help the North Sea because its costs are mainly in Stirling and

they have fallen relative to output price. Oil is always priced in

dollars. The fall in sterling should give encouragement to the Grampian

area and North Sea in general. I suppose nobody knows what will

happen but what are the future prospects for the UK and the rest of

the EU? How much of an impact will Brexit have on the rest of the EU? I

suspect it will have a negative impact. Erecting barriers to trade,

even to movement of people, will tend to make economies less

efficient and over the long run, I would expect, and a lot of other

commentators have seen, or forecast, is diminished prospects, both for

the EU as a whole, maybe not that much of the change, but a small

change, and some reduction in the UK's economic prospects. Professor

David Bell, we will have to leave it there. Thanks.

As we've been hearing, it's been another turbulent day,

to put it mildly, for Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

He faces a vote on a motion of no confidence by his MPs tomorrow.

More than two thirds of his Shadow Cabinet have

now resigned, including the Shadow Business Secretary Angela Eagle.

She explained her decision to the BBC. By ink Jeremy in the best

interests of the party needs to stand down. We don't serve our party

or the interests of some of the poorest in our communities by being

a Labour Party that cannot win an election. You are finding this very

difficult? Yes. I feel I have served in the best way I can and today I

had to go. If there are members of Parliament,

or members of the party, who disagree with Jeremy and his

policies upon which he was elected, it is open to them under our

Constitution to seek another election. But let me make it clear.

If there is another leadership election, Jeremy Corbyn will be

standing again and I will be supporting him.

The Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell there, defending Jeremy Corbyn

at a rally in support of the leader earlier this evening.

Joining me are Stewart Paterson, who's political correspondent

And the political commentator David Torrance.

Good evening. A lot to talk about after a busy weekend. Labour, let's

pick up on that. What on earth is happening, why is Jeremy Corbyn may

be thinking he can stay on still? He had a huge majority of members when

elected, over 60%. No one came near him in the last election and he is

thinking he can win it again. He knew this day was coming, maybe a

year or two down the line, but with the prospect of a general election

sooner that is why people have gone against him. He will let the members

make the decision again. Looking at the seams. Fire Brigade 's union

fire engine outside Westminster, utterly defiant. John McDonnell was

perhaps mortified. He said today in the House of Commons, which was

quite remarkable and strange, at the same time trying to attack the

Tories, having a go at the people behind him were plotting against him

when at that point you should keeping his fire for the

Conservatives. He knew it was coming and he is ready, whether he can

survive is another matter. I can't see him stepping down soon.

Backbenchers shook their heads when he made the comment alluded to. Some

wonder whether he would be allowed to stand. I think there is little

argument. It has come to a pretty pass when the Leader of the

Opposition has to consult lawyers about his position. There seems to

be a dispute between whether he would be automatically on the ballot

and Labour has a similar system to the Conservatives with the

Parliamentary party selecting candidates and it is put to the

membership. Remember he only got on the ballot last time because some

Labour MPs who did not support him thought it a good idea to have a

debate, it was an accident. If he does not end up on again, he cannot

be elected and grassroots support becomes irrelevant. If people think

they have been deprived of the leader they like you have an issue.

One was saying to Corbyn's supporters, if you don't like it you

should look elsewhere. There will be the vote of no confidence. That is a

sign the Parliamentary Labour Party don't get what is happening in the

wider country. A small band of MPs think they can overturn the

democratic result of the grassroots party membership. They want to hold

a secret ballot to force Jeremy Corbyn out, this is what is

happening in the past years in politics the way the public are not

happy. They do not seem to be listening. The Conservatives having

their problems stop when it comes to leadership. Briefly on that. A

similar situation. Boris Johnson does not have strong support in the

Parliamentary party but clearly potentially large support in the

grassroots. The Stop Boris movement coordinated one suspects by the

Prime Minister and possibly the Chancellor. Again that a similar

situation if the membership in the country feel their preferred

candidate is taken away, they won't be happy. And there could be added

election, the new leader, the 1922 Committee decided a timetable, new

leader by September. Could there be an October election? I think it is a

bit quick to have an election. If not October, probably into the New

Year and looking at the spring. They would have to call it straightaway

as soon as a new leader was announced. That would probably the

right thing to do if there is a new Conservative leader and you are

Prime Minister, especially after the EU referendum, you should get a

mandate for what proposals you want to take forward to take Britain out

of the EU, or even if they want to keep Britain in the EU. Nicola

Sturgeon, as we spoke to Alasdair Allan about, maybe she will have

that charm offensive around the constant looking for support for

Scotland to maintain links with the EU. How likely is that on the road

perhaps to a referendum? This is the $1 million question. There is no

model as the First Minister said, it is uncharted territory. I do not

think it is a runner, the Scottish Parliament and a veto of Brexit. She

did not use that word. We will only know where we speak to the

commission president and president of the Council in Brussels and that

will happen. I don't think these fringe noises from the former

Belgian Prime Minister, an Irish politician, making positive noises,

are significant. It is what the member states think. Fergus Ewing

was in Luxembourg and was hearing positive things from some officials

he was speaking to. They were even saying they would welcome Scotland

as the 28 state. You can probably pick and choose who you speak to who

will give favourable noises but they have to get the agreement of all 27

members for Scotland to either remain or come back in if we are

independent. You may get one or two. You need 100%. Catalonia is now more

of a live constitutional situation in Spain and Spain is reluctant to

create a precedent, might be greater than two years ago. Back to

Westminster, when it comes to whether there is Brexit or not, what

kind of a model do you think we might end up with. It is difficult

to predict. It is uncharted waters. Nobody knows what will happen. There

is no plan for Brexit. There is no plan for how the UK will look once

we have these negotiations. Nobody seems to know what country we will

have stop that is the problem. There was anger among pro-Brexit

people there was no plan if they vote went for Leave. They are

catastrophically unprepared. Rolling back on unrealistic promises made.

Boris Johnson in a newspaper column, it is remarkable, floating the idea

or most of the European economic area, which is a group that includes

Iceland and Norway so you retain access to the single market. But

there might be a quid pro quo in terms of freedom of movement. Most

people who voted Leave rather suspected they were getting away

from that, I think. Do you think that people may be new the impact.

Project Fear, the campaign, some people called it. Has it come to

pass? Do you think some people are thinking, maybe things are not quite

as bad as was said by the Chancellor. There is no emergency

Brexit budget? We are also hearing that some people on the Leave side

did not expect this. They did not expect the country would vote to

leave. It has all been about the Conservative Party leadership.

Nobody expected to be in this situation. Nobody anticipated the

mess that could be created. Which is grossly irresponsible politics! We

will have to wait and see what happens. Thank you both very much.

Shelly will be here tomorrow night, at the usual time.

Oh, God! Argh! HE COUGHS AND SCREAMS

BBC Four unmasks Britain's controversial

I genuinely thought it was going to be...quite mild.