30/06/2016 Scotland 2016

The blond bombshell knifed in the back by his

Boris Johnson's ambitions to lead the country tonight lie in tatters.

Michael Gove is to run for Tory party leader

after declaring his fellow Leave campaigner unfit for the job.

If we're to have a second independence referendum,

it should be held by next summer, one expert tells MSPs.

What's to become of the people who've made Scotland their home?

He led the country to Brexit, now he's walking away.

Boris Johnson dramatically dropped out of the Tory leadership race

The support he thought he could depend on, from his close

Leave campaign ally Michael Gove, had suddenly evaporated.

Mr Gove said that Boris Johnson wasn't up to the job

and threw his own hat in the ring instead.

As acts of treachery go, it doesn't get more brutal.

Our Westminster correspondent Nick Eardley has been following

A day at Westminster, fit for even the most improbable of political

dramas. The closest of allies on the referendum campaign trail just a

week ago. Now, one has turned on the other and decided that he is best

traced to assume the highest political office. Michael Gove had

been expected to run Boris Johnson's campaign to be the next Prime

Minister. But doubts were first raised after a leaked e-mail from Mr

Gove's wife. Very important that we now focus on the individual

obstacles... Then a political move even with Frank Underwood would have

been proud of. Boris has great attributes. He was not capable of

uniting that team and leading the party and the country in the way

that I would have hoped. That left his close ally's campaign in

terminal decline. Having consulted colleagues, and in view of the

circumstances in Parliament, I have concluded that person cannot be me.

So who is standing in this political soap opera? Mr Gove, raised in

Aberdeen, was a divisive figure as Education Secretary. But a

passionate advocate of Brexit. The other favourite is Theresa May, the

longest serving Home Secretary since the 19th-century. A soft kept a low

profile during the referendum campaign. Another Scot in the frame

is Liam Fox, the former Defence Secretary. He was a keen advocate of

leaving the EU. There is also Inverness born Stephen Crabb. Ruth

Davidson is a fan, though she is yet to back anyone. And Andrea Leadsom,

the Economic Secretary to the Treasury and a staunch backer of

leaving. The lines between political friends and enemies, increasingly

blurred in Westminster's new political reality. The race for

power still has plenty of twists and turns to come.

Joining me now in our London studio is Isabel Hardman

from the Spectator and, in Edinburgh, Simon Johnson,

the political editor for the Daily Telegraph.

Welcome to both of you this evening. Quite an extraordinary turn of

events today. Talk us through it, what is the story between Boris

Johnson and Michael Gove, how did this happen? This was such a

surprise to so many people in Westminster, including Boris

Johnson, who Michael Gove did not speak to before he made his

extraordinary announcement this morning, that he did not think Boris

was fit to be Conservative Party leader, and that he, Michael Gove,

who has said so many times that he does not think he is the right

person to be Tory leader and does not want the job, was going to stand

instead. This left the Boris camp with such little time to work out

what to do. The deadline for nominations was noon. And so Boris

ended up conceding that he could not stand, minutes before that deadline.

Well, Simon, we saw earlier this week Boris Johnson in your

newspaper, actually, setting out his stall. But some are suggesting he

had been backpedalling - is that what this is all about? Well, I

think he has some seeds of his destruction, and what happened

today, in that column. He seemed to row back quite heavily on

restricting freedom of movement. The column was also very much in favour

of the single market. I think a lot of Brexiteers will have read that

and got extremely concerned, including it seems Michael Gove. It

just seems such as a Kabul around, in such a short space of time. A lot

of people are finding it hard to believe this was not planned a long

time in advance? There are lots of conspiracy theories going around the

Tory party. Some suggest that this isn't something to do with the

Murdoch press. Others suggest it is something to do with George Osborne.

Often what happens in Westminster is down to mistakes rather than

conspiracies. But this does seem very sad and indeed. I suspect there

are a lot of people around Boris Johnson who are quite keen to go to

war with Michael Gove on this. It makes the Conservative leadership

contest a very bitter one indeed, when the party is trying to come

back together after the referendum. A lot of people not hands of Boris

Johnson anyway. He tends to be a little bit of Marmite. Ruth

Davidson, no secret that she was no firm. She must eat pretty delighted

he has dropped out? Yes, I think she is very pleased indeed. Along with

several of the figures at the top of the Scottish Tories, I think they

were appalled at the way Boris conducted himself and the manner in

way which he came out for the league side and in which he treated David

Cameron. Also I think they thought he would be toxic in terms of their

parties status in Scotland. They did not think he would be able to unite

the country after an extremely divisive Brexit folk. They thought

that a Johnson premiership would basically push Scots towards

independence. But of course, this is pretty disastrous for them, straight

off the back of the strong showing in the May elections - they cannot

be pleased only absolutely. I interviewed Ruth Davidson the day

after those elections, and she said the Tories are on probation in

Scotland. I don't know what happens now. I think a lot of unionist

voters who gave them another chance in that election will be absolutely

furious. Basically a Tory civil war, putting the United Kingdom at risk.

They will be hopping mad. Ruth Davidson has got a hell of a job to

repair that trust with them. Isobel Hulsmann, you are nodding. In the

midst of all of the economic uncertainty, among the five

candidates, how large will Scotland be looming in their mind, preserving

the union? -- Isabel Hardman. I think it is a big worry for all of

them. The one who has articulated this the most strongly is Stephen

Crabb, who we suspect Ruth Davidson will back at some point. When he

launched his leadership campaign guessed that they, and spoke about

the fact that he was born in Scotland, but also is worried about

the United Kingdom fracturing after the referendum. It is something he

has long been interested in, how to bring the United Kingdom back

together and preserve the union. Feels he is the person qualified to

understand how to do that. Are you getting any indication down there

that anybody is really thinking seriously moment, talking about

post-Brexit negotiations, about Scotland's interests? I think the

party is in such torn oil at the moment that it is difficult for

anyone to think seriously. -- such turmoil. I think they have focused

more on the detail of the Brexit negotiations down on the really,

really important task of keeping the union together and dealing with the

fact that Nicola Sturgeon is really seizing the opportunity which is

coming following the referendum result. Simon, now we know who the

five candidates are, David Mundell has already declared for Theresa May

- any indication of who Ruth Davidson might be supporting? Roof

has said that she is not going to declare who she is supporting until

the field has been narrowed down to two. You can understand that,

because she will have to work with whoever the victorious candidate is.

She is known to be close to Stephen Crabb, and his approach would

dovetail with hers, in trying to reach out to blue-collar voters.

Stephen Crabb, born in Inverness, raised in Wales, had a difficult

upbringing. He is very keen to branch out Tory support to the

working classes are in the same way that we have seen Ruth Davidson

succeed in doing up here. Isabel Hardman, I'm sure after the week we

have had, you might be wary of making predictions, but who do you

think will emerge with Tories? Well, really I don't want to make any

protections at all, but I have a hunch, and lots of Conservatives

have been saying this to me today, that there is a chance we may end up

with an all-female final round. When the two candidates who go out to the

membership go out, it could be Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom.

There are a number of former Boris supporters who are considering

switching to Andrea Leadsom, because they cannot quite stomach trusting

Michael Gove after what he has done to Boris. They want to support

someone, however, who campaigned for Leave. And Simon? I think Theresa

May, probably. I think there is too much blood on Michael Gove's hands

were so my money would be on Theresa May.

Now to Holyrood, and the First Minister has accused

the Conservatives of bringing Scotland and the UK to the brink

The Tory leader Ruth Davidson said Scottish trade with the rest

of the UK was more important than EU links.

Scottish Conservatives do not want Brexit to lead to a second

referendum on Scottish independence. Their leader wants the First

Minister to work with the UK Government on getting a deal with

the EU. A cursory acknowledgement of the importance of the UK market to

Scotland, because she should recognise it. Our exports to the EU

are worth ?11 billion. Our exports to the UK are worth ?48 billion. The

UK single market is four times more important to our firms here in

Scotland, and it is underpinned by our shared currency and our free

Borders. If Ruth Davidson and her Conservative colleagues had thought

it was so vitally important to protect what we have now, the

question for her and her Conservative colleagues is, why did

they propose a referendum which put all of that on the line? Why have

they brought not just Scotland but the UK to the brink of economic

disaster? Meanwhile, Scottish Labour say they back the Government's

efforts to protect Scotland's interests but they called on Nicola

Sturgeon to publish any legal advice in negotiations. People deserve to

know, they need to know, what's going happen next. This is not about

dragging up the arguments of the past. It is about our country's

future. So, will the First Minister publish the legal advice she

receives? I am determined to be as open and as frank not just with this

Parliament but with the people of Scotland, as I can be. The decisions

we might be confronted I want to be decisions we face up to and take in

a unified way. Transparency and openness is absolutely paramount to

that. I stopped short, as I will do again today, in saying that the

Government will publish every single piece of advice which we ever get.

Particularly when negotiations are at stake, I don't think that would

be a sensible thing for any government to do. Adam Tomkins

sought clarity from the First Minister on whether or not Holyrood

can block Brexit. The impression was given over the weekend that this

Parliament has the power to block or veto the United Kingdom's departure

from the European Union. Does the First Minister agree with me that as

a matter of law, we have no such power? My view is clear. Legislative

consent to take us out of Europe would be required. I have never

suggested that the impact of that would be more than it actually is.

But I do believe that a UK Government which was seeking to act

in devolved areas against the express we love this Parliament

would in an even further way be taking itself into constitutional

uncharted territory. Two they might have mark the end of the

Parliamentary session, because when it comes to negotiating Scotland's

place in Europe, clearly, it is just the beginning.

Well, this morning MSPs on the European and External

Relations Committee heard evidence from a range of experts

about Scotland's position following the Brexit vote.

One of them is a former senior adviser to the European Commission,

Dr Kirsty Hughes, and she joins me now from Edinburgh.

Good evening. Lots of talk over the last few days about exploring

options. Can you see any option for Scotland staying in the EU, short of

independence? I think the simplest and easiest way to stay fully in the

EU is if we are an independent state. The question whether there

are other options, which Nicola Sturgeon has said she wants to

explore, she has set up a committee to advise her, I think is

interesting and tricky. I think if it is a question of, could Scotland

stay in the single market while England maybe has a lighter, free

trade deal with the EU? That's worth exploring. It might be tricky.

Scotland would have to have free movement with the EU if it was in

the single market. But if England was doing a Canada-style trade deal,

it wouldn't. What would that do for the border between England and

Scotland? What about if the goods and industry and services are done

on a different basis? It may be possible to come up with options,

but it might be that you will come up with a number of problems which

might make it quite tricky to operate or not feasible. Is there

any reason that Scotland couldn't simply be the successor state? So

that when the rest of the UK leaves, Scotland stays? Think that is

something some people have talked about - could there be some kind of

legal fix, so that even though the rest of the UK would presumably be

the successor state in the United Nations or the IMF, say, that

Scotland could do that in the EU. That might mean you don't have to

have accession negotiations. I think that's probably very difficult.

Certainly I do not really see how Scotland could be the successor

state unless it had gone independent in the first place. So it is not

like the Greenland option or the east Germany example. It would have

to have gone independent, but it would have to have the agreement of

the rest of the UK and Brussels as well, for that. And also some people

think that if it was the successor state, it would keep all the UK's

current opt-outs, which I think is highly unlikely. The 27 will not

want to see a publication of all the opt-outs, the semidetached nature of

the current EU, sorry, the current UK relationship with the EU.

Obviously, the timing in all of this would be important - if it would be

important for Scotland to be independent, if there was any

possibility of being the successor state, that would all have to be in

train, presumably, before the UK left?

I think if and when Scotland decided in the referendum to be independent

and negotiated that with the UK, at that point the rest of the EU would

be perfectly ready to consider it becoming a member state. The problem

is that that is where Stott and months ago it doesn't want to go

through all the years are problems of coming out of the EE with the UK

and then negotiate to go back in. If you look at the muddle in the last

week over how the UK will exit, when it will trigger article 50, what

sort of deal and how long it will take, that is difficult enough but

why would Scotland go through that if it was sure it wanted to stay in?

There will be some sort of transitional deal done as long has

Scotland had shown it was independent before the UK left so

there will be a lot of focus on timing and ways that Scotland could

stay in but some people may decide that that is too risky, you need to

wait longer before you have a second independence referendum. What would

your advice be in terms of getting a move on? If the First Minister was

to decide a second independence referendum was the only option, when

do you think we could have it? I think in terms of the EU side of

this I can't recommend when the best moment in terms of the politics and

public opinion in Scotland but in terms of the EU side, once we have a

new Tory Prime Minister out of the leadership campaign in the

Conservative Party, we will have a much better idea of when the article

15 negotiations for the UK to leave the EU will start. My guess is they

will start by the end of the year, they have a two-year deadline, so

the working assumption could be that the UK will be out of the EU by the

start of January 20 19. If Scotland wanted to not just have held an

independence referendum but have had the subsequent negotiations with the

UK to become independent, the SNP said in the last referendum that

would be 18 months, that means a referendum next year. That would be

the best approach in terms of staying seamlessly in the EU. There

is still a problem there in the sense that even if it had done all

that it would need an accession treaty with the EU member states,

they would take a couple of years to ratify. There will have to be a

transitional fudge potentially at some point but with goodwill which

it has the moment from the EU, it is often very good at that sort of

fudge. Just briefly,... I just lost my inner peace. Right. Thanks very

much. And sorry about that. We'll have to leave it there.

Well, the question of what will happen to EU citizens living

here when Britain leaves was raised by the Greens' Patrick

He urged the Scottish Government to do more to help those worried

Our reporter John McManus has been talking to people from across

the European Union who have chosen to settle in Scotland

The Spitfire, one of the iconic aircraft of all World War II. This

model hanging in Kelvingrove art gallery didn't see action during the

conflict though but rather in the years immediately afterwards. The

idea is that European nations might come together to trade and move

really across the continent were still on the drawing board. Much as

changes then, of course, but the question is has Friday referendum

vote brought that chapter on free European move on to an end? It's not

just a theoretical worry for the 60,000 EU nationals who live in

Scotland. Sylvia is one of those. She has lived in Glasgow for 12

years, time she is Ben sets setting up a business and raising a family.

It was easy in some respects because of free movement. So how does she

feel when she woke up to the result of the youth vote? I was thinking

what is good at them, will I have two pack my stuff and leave? I

can't. I have a house, two kids, a job, a business, I can't just pack

might suitcase and go like I arrived 12 years ago. I am in a different

situation. Can you understand as a German living in Scotland for 12

years why some people might be concerned about immigration which

was one of the big themes of this referendum campaign? No. No. No.

British people have the right to go where ever they feel fit and within

Europe and other European people have the same right. No, this

mindset I don't understand. At all. Sylvia searches disappointed in the

referendum results and friends have approached her to say how sorry they

are. Other German acquaintances and nervous now too. They wonder if and

when they might have to say our leaders aim to Scotland. Younger

Europeans have now acquired a taste for living and working across

several different countries. Something they won't want to give

up. I was there that are more European than Polish because of the

fact that I been living abroad before coming to the UK. I think

that made me more European and that made me appreciate the fact that we

are an eclectic collective of nationalities and together we can

achieve greater things. Free movement of people is one thing but

EU membership also allows free movement of goods. Full Scots who

have gotten used to a more diverse Mediterranean diet perhaps perhaps

they will be about the joke and a food accorded this Greek restaurant.

I have a family business back home with my brothers and my dad so we

bring a lot of herbs, olive oil, now if we have to pay tax is increase

the cost. We buy a lot of fresh for instance vegetables from Holland,

Spain, it will increase the price as well. All that has the reflect on

the menu. George does believe that the UK will still keep supping at

the EU table. Others are worried it could be last orders.

Joining me now to discuss all of this and more is David Leask

from the Herald and Professor of Social Policy at the University

Just sticking with that story, when you hear the reflections and from

the Brexit vote of EU citizens actually living here, what you think

about the situation they been left in? They must be feeling it in the

gut. People are chosen to live here and feel passionate about this place

than some of us who have been born here. They feel passionate about

being in Scotland and the UK, they've made a choice and suddenly

that choice is negated. Do you think things have naturally become more

difficult for them? Both anecdotal evidence and some of the stats that

were seeing on the rise of hate crime to indicate that. I have my

e-mail full of EU students worried about them being asked to leave

before their funding runs out or wouldn't be able to take up

positions here. Colleagues as well who are working at the university

sector are worried about having to leave. These are possibly not real

fears and nothing could realistically happen within two or

three years but the mood has changed and how welcome they feel has

changed significantly. And presumably this concern about

research funding as well. There is absolutely certain about research

funding and this is one reason amongst many why academics are very

much opposed to the Brexit idea. The free movement of people but also

ideas and funding is what keeps our universities in the world league.

The idea that that might stop is not just about money but about ideas and

the way in which Scottish universities have this outward focus

and strong winds within Europe and there's a lot of uncertainty about

what will happen to those now. Seeing the runners and riders

shaping up today for the Tory leadership contest whether EU

citizens can feel any Moret assured about the place here. In the UK. I

agree with the professor. The likelihood is they will be able to

stay but they must tell the aware of the sentiment surrounding them. In

Scotland we often think because we haven't got a big anti-immigration

party or they won't do well that we don't have racist xenophobic

sentiment in our country. They will begin catching people who say things

like I'm not racist but... Them gypsies. People here that and that

must make you nervous regardless of who's in Holyrood and Westminster.

We saw some and raising in the chamber today the issue of

anti-immigrant leaflets appearing around Glasgow. Do you think this is

something to be worried about? It's part of that mood that's been

created, the forces of xenophobia that have been unleashed by the

referendum which may prove to be more powerful than the referendum

itself. Setting the United Kingdom and the course towards a kind of

politics that is really unattractive. Identity redoes

reflects the broad consensus of opinion but it doesn't need to

reflect the broad consensus. To create a toxic atmosphere and create

an atmosphere of fear. Now that the dust has settled, it's hard to

believe it was only a week ago. We were sitting there being told that

remain had just picked it and people went to bed thinking that was the

result and woke up to a leave vote the next morning. Now that the dust

has settled, it's all starting to sink in, what you think about the

situation particularly in Scotland? I don't think the dust has settled

and identity will forever long time. I'm a journalist and journalist with

the things with a strange way, at the cab last Thursday and they were

saying we will won't remain but Brexit is a big story. It's a bigger

story of our careers. That's no good thing but the dust has unsettled and

I think that looking at the way in which the rest of Europe is reacting

I think suddenly Scotland is seen as a different sort of a players. I was

in Rome in the aftermath of the vote, I watched the England verbal

game and a big screen in the centre of Rome and there were locals

shouting that for Brexit! Sentiment has changed in Europe and the role

of Scotland in Europe has changed. The people no longer see the UK as a

monolithic lump and realise it is a family of nations and a family that

isn't getting on very well just now. Changing politics here again when

you thought it was all settled down. It is interesting times to be a

sociable as the academic. But Chinese curse! It is also an

interesting watching direction of Europe because that's an indication

of what the reaction to the wrecked west of the UK might be like if a

second referendum was one. Somebody I expected things have come up. The

this one is that the person who is being left is not very happy about

being left. This idea that if you left the UK that you would still

have very good trading relationships and political and economic

relationships with the rest of the UK is thrown into question by that.

I think also Alan Smith standing ovation in the European Parliament

shows there is a strong feeling of goodwill towards Scotland and

towards those possibly Northern Ireland and London as well. Those

parts of the UK voters strongly to in the EU. There is no precedent for

this. There is nothing to say that Scotland can't become the part of

the negotiations, nothing to say that the we will even end up leaving

the EU. We may well remain in the EU but when we see it on a political

turbulence at a time for really good leaders to step up.

That's it for tonight and for this week.

As the Scottish Parliament goes into recess, so we too are taking

With the political landscape changing by the hour,

who knows how things will look when we come back?

Until then, thanks very much for watching.

MUSIC: What A Wonderful World by Joey Ramone

# I see trees of green... # Just look at that.

The world we live in is beautiful to look at