04/10/2016 Scotland 2016

The International Monetary Fund cuts its forecast for UK

economic growth next year, and the pound hits a 31-year

But the Prime Minister insists the economy is fundamentally strong.

At the Conservative Party Conference, Theresa May

acknowledges there will be "bumps in the road" for the UK economy

In Syria, the failure of a ceasefire has led to renewed

suffering for the country's children.

And it's World Ballet Day - a classical art form

In Birmingham today, Theresa May responded to that IMF forecast by

reasserting that the UK economy remains in good shape, despite

Brexit induced jitters. The prospect of a second referendum

has been described as a Sword of Damocles hanging over

the Scottish economy. Here's our Westminster

Correspondent, Nick Eardley. It's a topic which has left some

confused. Mark my word, we will make breakfast... Brexit a success. He

might have been left with egg on his face, but the Conservatives argued

the UK could make more of a success of Brexit fan of the Welsh leader

did of sound bite this morning. At a session celebrating the UK union,

David Mundell used his speech to see Scotland's relationship with the

rest of the UK would be crucial. It would be that strong, stable broad

shoulders of the UK that carry our country through the coming years.

But one thing I want to be absolutely clear on. We will

negotiate as United Kingdom. Leave as the United Kingdom. And face the

future together as the United Kingdom. The UK Government admits

Brexit would be risk-free. But he thinks there's a threat. As we look

to EU exit, remember that Scotland's trades over four times more with the

rest of the EU than with the EU. This is a bedrock of support that

can only come from being part of the UK. Some things have been made clear

him in Bellingham. The UK Government intends to bleed on all Brexit

talks, and it fully expect Scotland to leave the EU at the same time as

the rest of the UK. So, what happens next? Is David Mundell right, or

does got the need to rethink its relationship with the UK to maintain

its relationship with Europe? Likely to influence that debate is the

economic influence of Brexit. Some warnings and that French today. The

pound fell to a 31 year low against the dollar, and the IMF has cut its

growth forecast for the UK next year. The Prime Minister thinks

Brexit is an opportunity. She has pledged to make a success of it. But

she also admits it won't all be plain sailing. The process of

leaving the European Union is going to be one which will take complex

negotiations with the EU. I'm very clear that we want to get the radio

for the UK. As I said, it's not going to be plain sailing and there

will be some bumps in the road. We should always remember that the

fundamentals of the UK economy are strong. We have the fifth largest

economy in the world. Employment is a record high and we have been one

of the fastest-growing economies over recent years. As we look ahead

to the deal will have with European Union, and claim we want the best

deal for British business and here in the UK. Many of the Conservative

faithful think the future is bright outside the EU. But questions and

many of them still remain on the road to Brexit.

The International Monetary Fund has given its latest forecast

It's warned that overall economic recovery remains

"weak and precarious" but predicts growth this year of 3.1%,

The IMF has raised its prediction for UK GDP growth this

year to 1.8%, but cuts the figure for 2017 to 1.1%.

It forecasts weaker growth in the USA and says the Brexit vote

I've been speaking to Fabien Zuleeg, Chief Executive

of the European Policy Centre, and the economist Vicky Pryce.

It is obvious they are still very worried. Leros are some factors

which are keeping growth down in the world economy. One of the most

important things is well trained. Which has simply not been picking up

as it should do at this point of the cycle. That is happening mainly

because of geopolitical tensions and commodity price declines. A number

of companies are really not growing very fast at all. Normally, trader

should be growing faster, considerably faster, than world

growth. The fact that it isn't is keeping world growth itself quite

subdued. I think that makes the whole environment in which any of

those events which could unsettle it could upset it much more risky for

the future. Fabien, the IMF looks different countries and different

projections. For the UK, the forecast for this year was OK. But

for next year, they are predicting a slight dip. Was not something you

would have expected in the post Brexit environment? I think we are

going to see the impact of the Brexit process. At the moment, we

are still talking about a process. We haven't had Brexit yet. The full

impact is not going to, not even next year, but beyond that. Vicky,

the IMF mentioned the difficulties of being anti-immigration and

anti-trade, and raising those big political issues. Are those really

going to be the decider is, do you think, of economic, particularly in

the next year? Those points are very important that they are making. What

we have seen is that the world is becoming a bit more protectionist.

When economies are not doing very well done everyone becomes more

nationalistic they see what is going on right now in the US with the

presidential elections. Of course, you get that protectionist sentiment

coming through. It's quite worrying, if you at the meeting that took

place in September by the G20 when they raised protectionism as one of

the areas they wanted to combat. They in fact argued that they are

doing a lot to reduce it. In reality, as we know from various

reports, 70% of all the recent protectionist measures came from G20

countries. One of the things the IMF is worried about is also the UK and

Brexit and the way in which trade relationships with Europe will take

quite some time to unravel and to lead to a conclusion where we get to

beat again. But certainly worries them. If the developed countries to

form protection policies, what is the impact on the developing

countries who are trying to trade and increase their trade? That is

the real concern. That trade is simply not going to pick up as fast

as it should if everybody is just trying to look after themselves.

There is an added issue which is that the financial sector itself has

also reach wrenched considerably following big financial choices. --

has also curtailed following the big financial trenches. It is one of the

reasons we have seen trade growth nothing like what it should be

because finance has simply not been forthcoming. The effort of the

central banks all around the world, particularly the European Central

Bank, has been to put in -- to ensure the finance actually

materialises. Without that, we are going to be finding very low growth

in the world economy as a whole. Those protectionist measures, if

anything, will increase. Fabien, you are currently advising the Scottish

Government on Brexit. How was that process going and how different is

the situation for Scotland within the UK? At the moment, we're looking

at different options, how Scotland's interest in the EU can be protected.

Of course, Scotland have some specific concerns with its

relationship to the EU, but also with regards to the global trade

situation. WTO rules are being affected by Brexit as well. We are

looking at all of these implications and advising the government

accordingly. The fall in sterling that we saw today, how much is that

adding to the uncertainty looking forward? I think what we are seeing

now is exactly what was expected. There would be quite a significant

devaluation of sterling, but even more so that we are actually seeing

volatility in the market because of the uncertainty to do with the

political process, which is unfolding. I would expect that we

are going to continue to see quite a bit of change in the sterling

exchange rate to the euro, depending on how markets judge the likelihood

of a hard Brexit Borisov Brexit. What kind of a deal do you think

Scotland could end up getting, and how much are you considering the

difference that it could make if Scotland was independent? Firstly,

this is about determining what the UK negotiation position is going to

be. There are some interests which ought to be protected for the UK as

a whole. Which is also in the interest of Scotland. If that is the

route the UK Government is going to go down, I think then the prospect

of a Scottish independence referendum is probably not on the

horizon. However, if the UK Government goes for a very hard

Brexit, I think it will be one of the things which will be considered.

Vicky, you were at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, you

have been attending some of the fringe events. Theresa May was very

firm today that she wasn't overly concerned about the fall in sterling

in particular. She seems to be giving a very confident face going

forward. What were you picking up in the mood of the events you have been

at? I think there is certainly confusion about what sort of exit

we're going to have. Whether it will be a hard Brexit or some people call

it a clean Brexit. Or whether we will still be trying to negotiate

after we repeal the act which tied us to the European community. In

fact, what it means in terms of negotiating which rules we keep and

which rules we get rid of, that would be a long process. People

realise that would be the case. What we know is that the economy is

likely to slow down next year and we know that interest rates are going

to stay low. What this means is that sterling will still be leak. --

still be weak. There will be costs people eventually, inflation going

up. What we have seen is the boss had taken Philip Hammond's quite

seriously when he talked himself about to march was times coming

ahead. And needing, in fact, to ensure that the economy continues to

survive all that and offering to do more in terms of infrastructure and

also housing. We've seen in the mood being one that says, yes, good so

far. Sterling has been helpful. For the moment. But there is a lot to

watch out for. Not everyone has understood it, there is still a lot

of positive talk about everything being absolutely fine. I think that

is forgetting the realities of what is happening in the markets and how

people would react in terms of investment and so on. But I think it

will eventually get through to people that we are going to have

some difficult times and the institutions that we've got, the

Bank of England, the Treasury and so on, going to the ones that have to

do things to ensure that the economies of the entire British

Islands do reasonably well in the next year. Fabien, what do you think

will be the utmost priority for Scotland? Do you think you will be

access to the single market? I think it goes further than access. The

real priority of membership of the single market. That looks very

unlikely given the stance on freedom of movement, which has taken us up.

And also abiding by the rules. Membership of the single market is

the optimal situation. Negotiating at is on a sector by sector basis.

It is far more difficult and far more costly. Fabien and Vicky, thank

you both very much for joining us. In the Syrian city of Aleppo,

heavy bombardment has resumed following the collapse

of the recent ceasefire. The United Nations has called

for an immediate end to the bombing of eastern Aleppo

by Syrian Government The latest official figures show

that 106 children have been killed in the rebel-held areas

in just over a week. The BBC's special correspondent

Fergal Keane reports on the growing His report does contain

some distressing images Tenderness from a father who must

watch the slow wasting of his child's body. His son, aged 11, was

wounded in an air strike. His stomach was ripped open.

He is trapped by the siege. A child starving because of the damage to

his bowel and the absence of proper intrusion. And constantly wary of

new bombing. -- absence of proper nutrition. Hospitals have come under

sustained attack with only basic facilities doctors struggle. This

seven-year-old suffers will stop -- this seven-year-old suffers. "Good

Boy, were almost finished", the doctor says.

He is taken home. His grandmother wants to get into Turkey. Listen to

the sound of rockets landing before she speaks.

There is an irrepressible longing for normality. Risking the walk to

school with friends. The children are taught in the basement in the

hope they might be safer from falling bombs. But really, nowhere

in eastern Aleppo is safe. He has already lost a close friend.

Aleppo's agony began four years ago. But it has escalated dramatically.

The city's East is a claustrophobic hell from which there is now no

escape. Before the latest encirclement, many fled. Children

losing their homes and country. We met some of them in the valley.

The siege represents just the first problem, because even if they manage

to escape, the children face a new trap. They crossed the mountains

behind me and arrived in Lebanon on. A trauma of war in a world where

they are hemmed in. This child arrives in Aleppo three days ago,

crossing on a mule with a severe heart condition. She has joined her

grandchildren. This cousin's father was killed by a sniper in Aleppo.

This is the paradox of memory. It offers comfort and Spain. -- and

pain. Abdul cannot work because of injury. So his 14-year-old daughter

works in the field all day everyday to support the family.

Cluster bombs, bunker busters, barrel bombs, phosphorus bombs. They

had all been dropped hair. The Syrian Government and its Russian

allies have dropped them. 106 children have been killed in just

over a week. The Kremlin says rebels are deliberately using populated

area and rejects claims of war crimes. We are taking most streets

precautions so that we don't hit civilians by any chance. If this

happens, we are very sorry, but we need to investigate each and every

accusation. I'd never seen anything so blatant as these heightened

attacks upon children. Everybody knows that as long as these kind of

attacks with these massive explosive weapons take place children will be

killed. It cannot be denied that this will be the result. Though

these attacks should stop immediately.

There are enough treaties, Lars and promises to protect the children. --

treble. The problem is, those with power do not care to enforce the

laws. That is the tragedy of the children of Aleppo.

Fergal Keane reporting on the plight of Aleppo's children.

Ballet is revered by those who follow it,

and perhaps misunderstood by those who don't.

In an attempt to gain the appreciation of a wider

audience, ballet companies from around the world today took

to the internet to stream rehearsals and performances live.

But can such high-tech actions boost this most graceful of art-forms

Ballet in all its current colourful glory. The Nutcracker looks

effortless. Companies have been streaming their performances live on

Facebook. Filmed live here in the company's Glasgow studios. They are

here training and rehearsing for several hours every day. Commitment

is 100%. Unfortunately, ballet is not a mass participation art home.

Can World Ballet Day change that? Social media is one way dancers can

reach out to new audiences. We did a live webcast from this chilling. It

tells us connect to the audiences and for our audiences to know the

dancers. As the repertoire we are promoting, the younger boys, the

variety of repertoire. It allows us to get instant feedback as well. --

the younger voice. Otherwise we wouldn't be able to get to these

people. Ballet companies continue to diversify into contemporary dance

and traditional ballet can be old hat, it said. What about those

dancers starving themselves traditionally? This instructor says

it is changing. More classical, the classical domain, it is about

everybody, perfect lines. Now, we are doing so much more I feel.

Different types of dancing that they should maybe, maybe I am naive, but

maybe it is less and less. A place in Scotland's National

Ballet is a price for many young dancers. The company is able to

attract talented individuals from around the world. There are several

companies in France, but the UK dance scene is greater. I think it

is amazing that European dancers and people from all around the world are

coming. The stamina is clear in the autumn season. Why aren't these

dancers lauded like athletes? I used to play as Joe and rules football

industry while I was training for a fair few years -- Australia. I chose

ballet because it is more difficult because you have to make it look

easy. That is the difference between us and footballers, that is 90

minutes on a pitch breathing heavily the entire time. You have to be

cleaned with the ball. Latin dance you have to make it look as if it is

effortless. -- in ballet. They need to marry stamina with elegance this

autumn. And perhaps inspire a whole new audience.

Now, joining me to discuss the day's big stories are Marianne Taylor

from The Herald and Peter Geoghegan, who's a journalist and author.

A few things. But we were talking about the IMF forecast for global

and UK growth that we heard about today. The ink to Brexit. Any

surprise, Marianne, that in the news next year we could see growth in the

UK dipping slightly as a result of uncertainty. This IMF latest info

had something for everybody. If you are prone wrecks since it is clear

that it over at its initial focus. That would happen immediately after,

an immediate recession. -- pro Brexit. On the other hand, I am not

shocked about the forecast for 2017. It is dependent on whether or not

the UK is able to go into the single market. That is very key. That will

be what the IMF are thinking about. Paul, hard to predict anything

increasingly because of the certainty? I guess for anyone

looking at it. As Marianne said, if you are prone Brexit, you would say

that. Before the Brexit vote they said that and now the has not in.

Now it shows it, it is a terrible decision, they say. The economic

shots bull sharks take a long time to hit. Make banking bust hasn't

changed my life will stop it years down the line, a spirited ice,

people lost their houses, financial collapse, business concerns. Most of

the signs are ready negative really. Rebound because predictions were so

poor, the pound has sunk to a 31 year low. The stock market has

boomed. Of course it is booming because it is in that tells you

nothing. Chinese companies, minor British companies they are investing

in because it is so cheap. We have lost control because it is so cheap.

If you are going on holiday or exploit the pounds... It is a hard

one. It is hard for anyone. There are so many things that you cannot

know. It is hard to know how your hopes and fears and future plans

will be impacted. If there is no entry into the single market we will

see, I think, confidence Trainer way. We might see wage cuts, job

losses. -- drain away. These things will hit people very very badly. How

this will impact on their thoughts as for England as opposed to

Scotland and what that will mean for each of the nations, that is an

interesting factor too. In Scotland today we had a fiery debate in the

Scottish Parliament about finance and the finance secretary, Derek

Mackay, coming under pressure for showing contempt of Parliament. The

timing of the budget because of the Autumn Statement coming so late on

the 23rd of December is only getting three weeks for the opposition to

scrutinise. Is this a problem that you think? I think it is an issue.

But what I would also say it, I am quite pleased to see some real

actual, fiery talk around this. Often Holyrood over the years has

been accused of being weak on scrutiny. There is no second chamber

as an example of the committee system has been a bit weak. I like,

I have enjoyed, the demands of more time for scrutiny. They are right to

do so. I can see we are in a high position, they are in a higher

position. They are waiting for the Autumn Statement. On the other hand,

MSPs needs time to scrutinise this hard. Holyrood and I have thought

for some time it needs more measures. More time, is that

something to look at seeing as the Autumn Statement is later? Tying

into Brexit, a professor from Dundee appearing in front of Hollywood's,

more power is coming to Holyrood she was saying if that is how it turned

out. They might be the need for more scrutiny down the line. Tonight,

another debate on US television. The vice president candidates. Do we

know much about them? I am not going to lie, I have never heard of either

of them. I did see a report where most Americans that they interviewed

haven't heard of them either. Unless you are Sarah Payne, as a vice

presidential candidate you will not be on the radar. Especially when it

is Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Taking up a lot of the

oxygen. Tim Kaine, here's ancestors are many Irish Americans. Many

politicians have claimed Irish ancestry. But he has a proper link.

His great-grandfather is near my home town. I did a feature, his

fourth and fifth cousin, I was shown the cattle shed in which is great

great-grandfather was born. I spoke to his dad. He was a lovely man. It

was interesting, he remembers growing up in Kansas. A real

straight businessman, his grandfather. It was fascinating to

go back and see where he came from. He described himself as boring, so

maybe boring is good in this context. Trump's running mate is

described as a the rest Republican. Given the stature of their running

mates, the people they are behind, in this election being stale and now

is not a bad thing. Two suburban dads. Will you stay up or watch the

highlights? Highlights, I think. Even the political anoraks will not

stay up all night for this one! The debates will be on the BBC from 2am.

Shelly will be here tomorrow night at the usual time so do

JOHNNY CASH: # You can run on for a long time

# Sooner or later God'll cut you down

# Tell the rambler, the gambler, the backbiter

# Tell 'em that God's gonna cut 'em down... #