19/11/2013 Spotlight

It has been a bleak economic winter. But now, six years on, are things in

Northern Ireland finally brightening up? It is brilliant. In employment

is down and exports are rising. We have got biscuits in Las Vegas.

Northern Ireland companies can export. If the recession is over,

why doesn't it feel like it? The disposable income has been disposed

of. It is a fragile recovery that can be spoiled by our problems. The

issue with political instability and the flags is the biggest problem I

have. Welcome to Belfast. Belfast City

Hall gets ready to switch on the Christmas lights. I think it will be

wonderful. The Christmas shopping period is the most important is

wonderful. The Christmas shopping of the year for many businesses. We

consider this very much to be a community... Inside City Hall, the

lord mayor is hosting an informal meeting with conference organisers.

I believe we are coming out of recession and we have to build

confidence. These people create buzz and when one group comes, they say

to another group that they have been here. Outside of these Christmas

shoppers a sign of a tentative recovery? Yes, it is only

mid-November, but I want to know if people are planning to spend more

over this festive period? I did not spend much last year, but I have a

job now. About the same. A little bit more, I think. I was made

redundant there, so it will be tight coming up to Christmas.

This week, Belfast City Council announced a 275,000 Christmas

promotional campaign. The hope is that it will boost trade in the city

and capitalise on the feel-good factor.

After six years of decline, this Christmas may mark the beginning of

the recovery. But what will it feel like as we see welcome to the new

economy? Property prices have fallen by more than half since their peak.

By some measure, ours is the worst property crash in the world. But

every cloud has a silver lining. This woman is getting keys to her

new home. A house that was beyond her reach a few years ago is now

affordable. What are your plans for in here? We are going to pull this

out. We could never have afforded to buy

a property back then. You could extend out the back. This

is about ?100,000. At the height, it must have been ?200,000 at least.

Across the road, one house was valued at over ?230,000. It would

not have been affordable even if banks gave a mortgage without a

deposit. Is the market finally bouncing back? I last visited this

estate agent in the midst of our property crash. Do you still have

the bill that the guys bring when they cut a deal? -- ring. Yes, and

it is run more frequently than it was a few years ago, but not as

often as I would like to hear it. Towards 2006 and 2007, it was

incredibly difficult for first-time buyers to get on the housing

ladder. Housing prices have readjusted and it is more

straightforward now. In commercial property, even refinancing your

property can be extremely difficult. This modest upturn in activity is

limited to certain sectors and places. I am on my way to Dromore.

This house was on the market for several years. If we had put it on

earlier, it might have gone quite quickly. But our timing was wrong.

They had reduced the asking price by almost half, down from almost ?1

million. It has been two years since we have met the owners here. But now

we are back to meet the people who live here now. Hello. Since my last

visit, they have dropped the asking price by even more. You are still

here? Yes, two years on, still trying to sell the house. It is

still on the market. We have dropped it a couple of times since we last

spoke. We have had a couple of offers as well, one of which we

accepted, but that fell through. They are still looking for that

elusive buyer. The couple are aware that they are playing a long game.

If we had bought this house in 2006, we probably would not be doing

this interview because we would have been so depressed. Luckily, we

bought this in 2004, so the price has gone up and come back down

again. We have tried to stay realistic all the way through and,

hopefully, things have turned the corner and we are hopeful of selling

soon. I sense they have taken a philosophical approach to their

experiences in the property crash. But they can afford to wait. Others

are not so lucky. Auctions, which include many repossessed

properties, are now commonplace. Behind the bargain offers our

individual stories of misery. This man advises people from all walks of

life on managing their debt. He negotiates on their behalf with the

banks. His firm is currently handling cases totalling a quarter

of ?1 billion of debt. There are three sets of people. Those who are

doing quite well, but most people in the country would fall into the next

two categories, those that are running out of money and those that

have run out of money. If you look at that analysis, that does not mean

we are running out of research -- that does not mean we are moving out

of recession. Court orders threatening repossession are up on

the same period last year. This personal debt mountain may be our

guest economic -- our biggest economic hurdle. Through the good

years, Northern Ireland was no different from anywhere else in

terms of personal debt, credit. That is having a significant effect on R4

salts and their ability to spend. -- on our households. But we had such a

big boom here, surely that must have a negative effect? I do not know

whether it is worse or better in Northern Ireland. We are seeing

unemployment fall, this is a cavity and business activity increasing, we

are not seeing the improvement in people's pockets.

The trend we are seeing, once people have done and bought all they need,

there is nothing left. Disposable income is disposed of. For the last

few years, the cost of living has been going up faster than wages.

This feedback was set up recently. The organisation that runs it now

has 11 in Northern Ireland. This woman and her volunteers have been

gathering food parcels for those in need. We anticipate Christmas and

the winter period, that will still continue. Many attending are reliant

on benefits which have faced cuts. Others do have jobs, but do not have

enough to buy the basics. A month later a man I had seen in a

supermarket turned up. later a man I had seen in a

case that people are coming to you because the confidence is there? In

some ways, yes. The recovery is not enough to raise living standards.

The recovery here is expected to be slower than in any other part of the

UK. Everything in economic is relative. If our economy is moving

forwards slowly and everywhere else is moving faster, we are getting

relatively poorer. Recession was bad, recovery may not be merry.

Those green shoots of recovery are sometimes hard to spot. It is a cold

Thursday morning on this community allotment. Darren works part-time as

an assistant here. I am an my wage and it is low. You have to budget

your money properly. The garden is a funded initiative in an area

considered to be among the top 10% most deprived in Northern Ireland.

Darren is now known as the working poor. The minimum wage is shocking.

Anybody on the minimum wage will tell you that they are working to

survive full stop the minimum wage is diabolical. You are going to

struggle. What about friends of yours who may be an benefit. Do they

appear to be the ones making the sensible choice? They get their rent

paid for them. They do get more money. That is their perspective in

life. I would rather go out and crashed. At least then you know you

can go home at the end of the day and you have done a good bit of

work. Continued funding for Darren 's position is not guaranteed. You

may lose his job after Christmas was up the is keen to see what a job

market supposedly on the up may hold for him.

That is a flop plan inside. -- a floor plan inside. Employers have

come to Belfast. Those looking for work have followed was at the big

surprise of the recession was that unemployment did not rise even

further. Many people took pay cuts and to ours rather than lose their

jobs. Unemployment when measured against the dollar Q is falling. But

not as fast as elsewhere for that we have the highest rate in the UK. The

picture is especially bleak if you are part of the younger generation

full stop a quarter of 18 to 24-year-olds are unemployed and that

is up over the last year. Someone at the age of 16 is not going to have

the experience. That is so much to do. I recently finished a Masters

degree. I find there are few opportunities have there. But there

are jobs to be found even in difficult times. This is the iconic

route master bus, a success story built in Ballymena. It has attracted

admirers as for its innovation to grow in difficult times. We have

been fortunate to be awarded a contract to build 600 of these.

been fortunate to be awarded a workers will be busy link these over

the next few years. Overall, employment within our group of

companies is at words of 1700 people now. At the main Assembly hall,

about 600 of those putting the buses together in the final stages. This

firm added another 700 people to the workforce during the recession. The

key to growth was targeting overseas markets. We cannot take this model

everywhere in the world. We know that. Others, we have to adapt the

business from. We are shipping buses out in kit form and assembling them

locally in places like Hong Kong. The route master has become

something of an emblem for Northern Ireland and UK exports. You do not

have to be a big player to do this. For some exporters, small is

beautiful. This man spotted a gap in the market for a Luton three

escapes. He's cells more in America than at home. The Internet has made

the world a smaller place. You can speak to some of the N America just

as handy as speaking to someone in Northern Ireland. The assumption is

explored is for the big guys. You have the market in mainland Europe.

I have biscuits in Las Vegas. It is no big deal. Northern Ireland can

export. It is about tenacity and entered an airship. -- in the

premiership. Sales growth like this is driving our recovery. Back at the

jobs there, Darren is looking at some of the 1100 positions

organisers say are on offer. Both the Westminster and Stormont

government hope a recovering job market will help take people off

benefits. Any sort of work. I am working at the minute. Others were

also hoping to improve their wages. He may have 30 hours when weak and

ten the next. It is not very dependable. Some experts are worried

that so many find themselves in work but still struggling to make ends

meet. That is concern about people at the sharp end of the wage scheme.

One in four people are getting less than what is deemed to be the living

wage. Going out to work means you do not have guaranteed

wage. Going out to work means you do got up if the hours and less than

what you need to have a big -- decent standard of living, then that

is not making work pay. Neil Gibson argues that wages need to be

competitive with risk doing more harm than good. We need to be

realistic about what we think is a living wage for people here in

Northern Ireland. If we look at people around the world who I can --

producing goods, the living wage we are looking at is many multiples of

what they can hope to achieve full stop the focus needs to be an

driving down the costs of the things be at insurance, energy and

property. There are people who will compete for as that for our jobs. --

for our jobs. Political and business leaders came to a new tourist

exhibition, Titanic Belfast. They both here for a conference on the

direction of our economy. Investment is a priority for a Westminster

government that intends to produce its public spending and Northern

Ireland and lessen some of the burden on the UK taxpayer will stop

David Cameron is banging the drum for tourism and investment here.

This is a stunning exhibition, the biggest of its kind anywhere in the

world and it added ?27 million to the Northern Ireland economy in its

first year alone. Tourism brings outside money into the economy and

Northern Ireland needs to attract as much as it can weather. This is a

significant outpost for one of the largest law firms in the world. They

have been hiding people in recent years. It is home town for many but

others are just arriving. Our law firm is working all the time on an

operation here in Belfast as well as elsewhere. We are in the middle of

the night shift here this white-collar shift work is a glimpse

of what the economy can look like here. With less public money around,

the Giants are needed to drive the economy. A new Northern Ireland open

for business, strengthening the foundations for peace and stability

and prosperity. A new Northern Ireland determined to be defined not

by its divided past by -- but by its shared future. Multi-million pound

initiatives to boost tourism and the economy was suggest the future can

be bright. But standing in its way, there's no doubt Northern Ireland

can survive its path. This was the image of Northern Ireland broadcast

to the world last year. Belfast city centre brought to a standstill by

violent protests over a flag. Try explaining that the foreign

investors. Open for business customer you have got to be joking.

We have the" about the message we send to the world. This is where we

make the software. He built and says software is to retailers. He has

global customers and investors. They do not care that he is in Belfast

and less Belfast becomes the story. We had investors from all over the

world on a conference call and they could hear silence in the

background. I tried not to mention it. -- sirens in the background.

They will only take so much before they say it cannot work and it will

go elsewhere. The flag protests are estimated to have cost the city in

last trade. There was widespread disruption.

This year, many are hoping to make up for lost earnings. Restaurant

owner in the Dean has big plans. The business next door has moved out and

he has spotted an opportunity for expansion. He has a string of

restaurants in the first and implies 130 people. What the plan is is to

cut a hole somewhere in this wall. He has raised the stakes on his

Belfast death. His latest expansion will take place in the shadow of the

first City Hall, the scene of last Christmas 's mayhem. It was a brutal

time for business was up everybody will want it to go out to

time for business was up everybody including the two black Christmases

but we lost out on that. We cannot control the security situation. That

is the biggest nightmare. Next month sees the first anniversary of the

council vote on the flag. Those behind the protests have organised a

major demonstration for the nurse leaders have pleaded for them to

reconsider and have called for political leadership will stop I

will not tell anybody if they have something that they are angry about

that they should not notice. But about avoided altogether better Mac

-- altogether? I would never say to anybody they should not protest.

They have a right to protest. But to reflect on the time and place and

nature of the protest because we cannot and do another Christmas in

the centre of Belfast the way we had last year. At the leading political

parties, if you are in the business community, you may understand there

are precious but mean you cannot change the rate automatically. You

cannot influence interest rates or inflation or the minimum wage and

you cannot change most taxes but one thing they think you can influence

it political stability was up on that measure, the leading parties in

government here have failed? I do not accept that we have failed on

political stability but we are now well into devolution. Many

businesses that may have gone to the wall are still operating in Northern

Ireland today. The flag issue is still a cause for concern. What

about the role of politicians. The issue of political stability and

what we had last year. We need to look to the future and be optimistic

and positive. It is a challenge. The statistics tell us recovery is

underway but will we all share the fruits of this new economy? You have

to deal with things. Fingers crossed and then positive. Something

positive may come out in the end. Hopefully, at some point soon,

somebody will come along with the right money at the right time. We

are through the worst of it. ABF is not moving as fast as we would like

that it is better to be where we are today than we were a couple of years

ago. We need to be careful. Try and look at things like spend and tax

and do things more responsibly. This recovery will be more than just the

fears about the crash and the future. We feel poorer because we

are poorer. A feel-good factor may return but it will depend on

hard-fought economic growth. The Christmas many others spent this

year will be a first glimpse of the shape of things to come, not just

for next year but for many more after that.