18/05/2014 Sunday Politics East Midlands


18/05/2014

Andrew Neil and Marie Ashby with the latest political news. Ahead of the local and European elections, Andrew Neil talks to Sajid Javid, Simon Hughes and Hilary Benn.


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difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

:01:55.:01:58.

an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

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campaign trail, he has been asking all

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In the East Midlands, it's `n election special. We're on a

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regional road trip to find out what our MEPs are up against, and taking

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a closer this week, a last look at the euro

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elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's

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32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got

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all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it

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is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local

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elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are

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the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some

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say that these European and local elections will not be much of a

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pointer to how the big one goes But pointer to how the big one goes. But

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that will not stop political commentators and party gurus from

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examining them closely. So, what is at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is

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local elections and European Parliament elections.

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These local results should be known by Friday. In the European

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elections, all 751 members of the European Parliament will be elected

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across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let it by people living in the UK. But

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the results will not be announced until Sunday night, after voting has

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closed throughout the 28 member states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are

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in a position where the polls this morning cannot tell us what the

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outcome is going to be on Thursday, and the general election is still

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wide open - we really are in uncharted territory? Also it is

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difficult to know where we are, because there is that ComRes poll

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which shows an 11 point lead amongst those certain to vote for UKIP, and

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another poll in the Sunday Times showing that it is a much more

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slender lead for UKIP. But we know that will they win? We do not know,

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but clearly they will unsettle the major parties. Fall or five months

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ago, we assumed that the UKIP success would create panic in the

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Conservative Party, but that has been factored into David Cameron's

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share price. The Conservative Party is remarkably relaxed at the moment,

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and I wonder whether this time next week, when we have the results,

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whether the two political leaders who will be under pressure will be

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Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg, because they could go down

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from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or four. And Ed Miliband, because, one

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year before a general election, he should be showing that he is a

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significant, potent electoral force. So, they should all be

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worried about UKIP, but whereas a couple of months ago, we would all

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have said David Cameron was the one who should be worried, now, we are

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saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr Clegg? And of the two, I think it is

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Ed Miliband who should be worried. The Lib Dems are an incredibly

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resilient party. He described his own party as cockroaches, and

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incredible resilience! I think the Lib Dems are ready to take this one,

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but I think Labour are really wobbly at the moment. What UKIP has done,

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to England, it means that England has caught up with Scotland,

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Northern Ireland and Wales, England now has a four party system, which

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makes it all the more uncertain what the outcome will be? Yes, but

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whether UKIP finish first or second, it will be the biggest insurgent

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event since the European elections began in 1979. People talk about the

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Greens in 1989, but I think they finished third. Were UKIP to win a

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national election or even finish runner-up, it would be truly

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historic. It is reflecting on something which is happening across

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Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, France and in this country. --

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populist parties. And it makes first past the post look absolutely

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ridiculous. You could be in a situation after the next general

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election where Labour do not get the largest percentage of the vote but

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they get the largest number of seats. First past the post works

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fairly if there are only two parties, but when there are four...

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We will talk more about that. Let's speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP.

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She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP claims that there is going to be an

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earthquake in British politics on Thursday. Suppose there is, what

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does UKIP then need to do to become a more grown-up, proper party? I

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think UKIP has very much become a grown-up, proper party. We have been

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around for 20 years. What we are going to be doing after the European

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elections, if we do cause this earthquake, and the polls are

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looking like we are going to, is we will be firmly looking towards 2015,

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getting our general election manifesto out, to keep those votes

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on board from the euro elections and putting forward common-sense

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policies which really will bring Britain back to the people. We want

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to be able to hold the balance of power come the general election. If

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we can do that then there will be a referendum. That will be our aim.

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You say you are a more grown-up party, but when you look at the

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stream of gaffes and controversies created by your candidates and

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members, I will not go into them this morning, at the very least, I

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would suggest you are needing a more robust system of selection? You

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could say the same for the other three parties, who have been around

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for a lot longer. They have got nothing like the embarrassments you

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had. I am afraid they had. Just this week, since Monday, we have had 17

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Liberal Democrat, labour or Conservative councillors either

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arrested, charged or convicted on all manner of offences. In addition

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we have had 13 who have been involved in some kind of racist

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sexist or homophobic incident. I am not saying I am proud of any of

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that. The whole of politics probably needs to be cleaned up, but I

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certainly do not think we are any worse than the other parties, who

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have much greater resources than we do. Those other parties are even

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putting people in power who they know have got criminal convictions

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or who have previously belonged to far right, fascist parties like the

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BNP. Can you continue to be a one-man band? The only time any

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other UKIP petition makes the headlines is when they say something

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loony or objectionable? We have a huge amount of talent in this party.

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We have fantastic spokespeople across the patch, the huge amount of

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expertise in the party. Inevitably the media focuses on Nigel Farage,

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who is a fantastic, charismatic leader. But believe me, there is a

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huge amount of talent. When we get our MEPs into power after the

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European elections, we will see many more of them I think on television

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and radio and in the newspapers. more of them I think on television

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and radio and in the newspapers We are not a one-man band. Who runs

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your party? The party is run by Nigel Farage, our leader. But he

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spends all his time running between television studios and in and out of

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the pub! You would be amazed how much he does, and of course we have

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a National Executive Committee, like the other parties. So who runs it?

:10:14.:10:19.

The National Executive Committee, in conjunction with Nigel Farage, the

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MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a joint effort. Your Local Government

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Minister Stosur is, if you vote UKIP, you go on to pledge that your

:10:28.:10:32.

councillors will not toe the party line, how does that work? -- your

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local government manifesto says... On the main policies, they will toe

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the party line, because that is obviously what people will be voting

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for. It is no good putting forward a manifesto like the Lib Dems did on

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2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive --

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2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive - a

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lot of policies at local government level, and those we will stick to.

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But when it comes to individual, But when it comes to individual

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local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a

:11:10.:11:13.

school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best

:11:14.:11:18.

interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any

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party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.

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People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their

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party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote

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to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a

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road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road

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map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.

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Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but

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there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There

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is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that

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detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.

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We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong

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position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade

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deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What

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would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for

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back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade

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agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the

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European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975

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involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do

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not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply

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concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew,

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concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew it

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would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it sounds like you are complaining that

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we might have something which is better than 1975. I am just trying

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to find out what it is! That sounds like positive to me. We will

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negotiate a trade deal and all manner of issues, whatever is best

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for the British people. We want our sovereignty back, we want our

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country back. Would you be upset if a bunch of Rumanian men moved in

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next door to you? Where I live, I am surrounded by one and two-bedroom

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flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in next door to me, I would want to ask

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questions. That is very different from say a Robinho family moving in

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next door. I would think, are they being ripped off, are they up to no

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good or are they perhaps being trafficked by a gang master? So I

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think it would be of concern, and I do not think there is anything wrong

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with that, it is a humanitarian approach. That would be different

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from a family moving in who were learning to speak English, who

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wanted to contribute to the British economy. Maybe if your boss is

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watching, he will now have found out how to answer that question.

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Now, what is more glamorous, 24 hours in the life of a

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counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours in the life of Adam Fleming, on the

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campaign trail? I will let you make up your own mind. So, it is eight

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o'clock in the morning here in Westminster. Today's challenge is,

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how much campaigning for the local and European elections can we fit

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into 12 hours? See you back here at eight o'clock tonight. Wish me

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luck. With my cameraman and producer, we went to Thurrock in

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Essex first. I got a very, very warm welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They

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have never had this much attention. One candidate's misdemeanour ends up

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on the front page. But you have got Lib Dem candidates being convicted

:15:19.:15:20.

of racially aggravated assault, and that was not on the front pages of

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the newspapers. Houdini is fine but it must be applied evenly. Have you

:15:25.:15:31.

had to sack Thurrock UKIP members for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh,

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God, no. Next we head to meet a top Tory in a different area. We are

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heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in traffic. We are going to miss

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William Hague. We got there, just in time, to ask the really big

:15:50.:15:53.

questions. David Cameron went to Nando De Colo last week, where are

:15:54.:15:58.

you going to go for lunch? I do not even get time for lunch. I think

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something in the back of the car. We will go down the street and see what

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people have got to say. Even the Foreign Secretary has depressed the

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flesh at election time? Even the Foreign Secretary meets real people.

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The message William Hague impresses upon everyone he meets is that the

:16:27.:16:31.

Tories are the only party offering a referendum on our membership of the

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EU. He's off for lunch in the limo. I've got five minutes by the beach.

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This is the best thing about elections, lunch. Do you want one?

:16:45.:16:52.

And chips are weirdly relevant at our next stop - the Green Party

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battle bus which is parked in Ashford in Kent. What is special

:16:56.:16:59.

about this vehicle? It runs from chip fat oil so it is more friendly

:17:00.:17:08.

to the environment. But boss was boiling. The next stop is Gillingham

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to see Labour. Labour have just hired Barack Obama's election guru

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David Axelrod to help them craft their message. What does David

:17:20.:17:26.

Axelrod know about the people who live on the street? I know the local

:17:27.:17:37.

details but you handle those. Ed Miliband and his party have had to

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handle a few dodgy opinion polls lately, prompting some leadership

:17:41.:17:43.

speculation from one activist. Who is your favourite Labour politician?

:17:44.:17:52.

Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're flagging. Final stop, Southwark in

:17:53.:18:00.

south London. We are in the right place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem

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taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning as the party of in. But are they in

:18:09.:18:14.

trouble? Your party president said the party would be wiped out and

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lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If he did say that, then no, that's not

:18:21.:18:28.

terribly helpful. And let's not forget, every London council is

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having elections too. I have 40 minutes to get back to the office in

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Westminster, which calls for something drastic, like this. After

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212 miles, but will be make it home for eight? We have made it, aided,

:18:42.:18:50.

12 hours of pure politics. Happy elections, everyone.

:18:51.:19:02.

Adam Fleming impersonating Jack Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our

:19:03.:19:10.

studio, welcome back. The Greens used to be the upcoming party in

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Britain, now it is UKIP. What went wrong? We are in a very good place,

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looking towards travelling our MEPs and we could be the fourth largest

:19:26.:19:30.

group in Parliament after these elections. More and more people are

:19:31.:19:35.

recognising we are the only party calling for real change, the only

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party saying we have two stop making poor, disadvantaged young people

:19:41.:19:46.

over the mistakes bankers. You have made a strong pro-environment stands

:19:47.:19:52.

synonymous with the politics of the left, why have you done that? Why

:19:53.:19:57.

should an equal minded Conservative vote for you? I think one of the

:19:58.:20:02.

reasons why many Conservatives, I met them in Chester where they are

:20:03.:20:09.

stopping coalbed methane exploration, lots of Conservatives

:20:10.:20:15.

are looking to vote for us beyond issues like fracking and the Green

:20:16.:20:19.

belt, and many of them are concerned about the fact we haven't reformed

:20:20.:20:24.

the banks. This morning we had the Bank of England chief coming out and

:20:25.:20:28.

saying we have a huge house price bubble and people recognise that

:20:29.:20:34.

many of the parties offering the same are not working. And yet the

:20:35.:20:46.

polls show that the hardline greenery is not winning. We are

:20:47.:20:51.

looking to travel our number of MEPs and we have people recognising that

:20:52.:20:56.

we have to change the way our economic 's, politics and society

:20:57.:21:00.

works so that everyone has sufficient resources within the

:21:01.:21:03.

limits of the one planet because one planet is all we have got. You want

:21:04.:21:11.

all electricity to be generated by renewables, is that right? So where

:21:12.:21:16.

would the electricity come from on days when the wind is not blowing?

:21:17.:21:21.

Most of the electricity is there. It is mature. We need to be hooked into

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a European wide grid, we need a smart grid that will allow for

:21:29.:21:33.

demand to be adjusted according to supply. So we would take French

:21:34.:21:40.

nuclear power, would we? We need to work with a partnership across

:21:41.:21:48.

Europe. We are being left behind and we are losing opportunities. 50% of

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we are losing opportunities. 50 of German renewable electricity is

:21:52.:21:55.

owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the

:21:56.:22:06.

big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French

:22:07.:22:16.

nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,

:22:17.:22:23.

going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government

:22:24.:22:25.

proposes the At the moment the Government

:22:26.:24:38.

joined now by the Conservative MP, the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and

:24:39.:25:08.

Sajid Javid. We want to see a European Union resolutely focused on

:25:09.:25:12.

the single market, free trade, and only we can bring about that change.

:25:13.:25:17.

Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, in fact they would

:25:18.:25:22.

like more integration, and a UKIP party can not deliver the change.

:25:23.:25:29.

Hilary Benn, at this stage positions usually romp home in European

:25:30.:25:33.

elections and no party has gone on to form a government without winning

:25:34.:25:38.

the European elections first. Now it suggests you could become second,

:25:39.:25:45.

you haven't handled UKIP very well either. There is a lot of alienation

:25:46.:25:50.

from politics around, globalisation has left some behind and people are

:25:51.:25:54.

concerned about that but UKIP will not provide the answer. Nigel Farage

:25:55.:26:00.

only talks about Europe. We are to hear it would not be in the

:26:01.:26:04.

interests of British people to come out of Europe. We do want a season

:26:05.:26:09.

change in Europe, for example we want longer periods when new member

:26:10.:26:15.

states come in. We don't think child tax credits should be paid to

:26:16.:26:19.

children not living in the UK, but Nigel Farage is also proposing to

:26:20.:26:26.

charge us when we see the GP, to halve maternity pay, and he wants a

:26:27.:26:32.

flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to the problems we face and we will

:26:33.:26:36.

continue to campaign as we have done to show that we are putting forward

:26:37.:26:46.

policies on energy prices, and in the end that is what people will

:26:47.:26:51.

look for. Simon Hughes, you will be lucky to come forth. The voters

:26:52.:26:58.

decide these things. Really? I never knew that. My response to the UKIP

:26:59.:27:03.

question is that they get support because they have never been in

:27:04.:27:09.

power, they are never likely. A bit like the way you used to never get

:27:10.:27:14.

into power. I accept that, but now we are in government. The reality is

:27:15.:27:23.

that laws made in Brussels, we make together by agreement, and it is the

:27:24.:27:28.

case from the Commons figures that only seven out of 100 laws are made

:27:29.:27:37.

in Brussels. Actually they have been shown not to be the only ones. 14

:27:38.:27:43.

out of 100. If we were to come out of Europe, we would seriously

:27:44.:27:52.

disadvantage our economics and the jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the

:27:53.:27:58.

European Union. If the Conservatives comes third or even a poor second,

:27:59.:28:02.

it will show that people don't really trust your promise about

:28:03.:28:07.

European referendum. They have been there before, they don't trust you.

:28:08.:28:12.

What we have already shown, despite being in coalition with Liberal

:28:13.:28:17.

Democrats, we have shown progress on Europe, we have vetoed a European

:28:18.:28:21.

treaty when people said we wouldn't, we have cut the European

:28:22.:28:26.

budget which is something Liberal Democrats and Labour MEPs voted

:28:27.:28:31.

against, we cut it by ?8 billion. But overall we are still paying

:28:32.:28:40.

more. We have still cut it. We have taken Britain out of the bailout

:28:41.:28:45.

fund that Labour signed us up to. We are now going to take that same

:28:46.:28:50.

energy to Europe and renegotiate our relationship and let the British

:28:51.:28:56.

people decide in a referendum. Why has Ed Miliband become such a

:28:57.:29:04.

liability for your party? Even your own MPs are speaking out against

:29:05.:29:10.

him. If you look at the polls, we have been in the lead almost

:29:11.:29:15.

consistently. The voters will decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man,

:29:16.:29:19.

but what really marks him out is that he is thinking about the

:29:20.:29:25.

problems the country faces. Simon and Sajid both support the bedroom

:29:26.:29:38.

tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband said the energy market doesn't work

:29:39.:29:41.

for consumers, we will freeze energy prices while we change the system.

:29:42.:29:50.

So why are his ratings even lower than Nick Clegg's? They will be

:29:51.:29:59.

voted for next year in the general election, and if I were David

:30:00.:30:03.

Cameron I would ask myself this question - the economy is

:30:04.:30:09.

recovering, why is it that David Cameron and the Conservatives have

:30:10.:30:12.

been behind in the polls? Because in the end the big choice in British

:30:13.:30:17.

politics is between the two parties that say, if we sought the deficit

:30:18.:30:23.

everything is fine, and Labour who say that there are things about this

:30:24.:30:27.

country, the insecurity that has given rise for support for UKIP, and

:30:28.:30:34.

we are the ones talking about doing something about zero hours

:30:35.:30:38.

contracts. The more your leader bangs on about Europe, the worse

:30:39.:30:43.

your poll ratings get. He is out of the kilter with British people. It

:30:44.:30:53.

may not be a majority of people who think that we ought to stay in the

:30:54.:30:56.

European Union, but when you speak to people about it, people

:30:57.:31:01.

understand that we are better in them out. In the elections on

:31:02.:31:06.

Thursday, that is not about who runs Britain, that is for next year. In

:31:07.:31:10.

terms of the local councils, we have battles on the ground, like in my

:31:11.:31:14.

community, where we are trying to take it back from the Labour Party.

:31:15.:31:18.

Affordable housing has just not been delivered. We have delivered that in

:31:19.:31:25.

office and we had admitted to that. -- we are committed to that. Labour

:31:26.:31:30.

have actually demolished homes. So, people want more affordable homes.

:31:31.:31:36.

One issue which is behind people's antipathy towards immigrants is that

:31:37.:31:40.

they cannot get the affordable housing they need. We as a

:31:41.:31:43.

government have delivered more affordable housing in this

:31:44.:31:48.

Parliament -170,000 new properties earning and more, over the next

:31:49.:31:54.

three years. That does not work out that very many per year. Overall

:31:55.:32:03.

housing is a lot less than it was in 2006. Let me tell you, under the

:32:04.:32:10.

Labour government, we lost nearly half a million affordable homes.

:32:11.:32:13.

Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher or under the coalition. What is your

:32:14.:32:20.

last ditch message to the millions of Tory voters thinking of voting

:32:21.:32:26.

UKIP on Thursday? First, what I would say is, Ed Miliband also said

:32:27.:32:31.

that we should not tackle the deficit, it was not a priority. As a

:32:32.:32:37.

result of our resolute focus, we now have the fastest growing economy in

:32:38.:32:40.

the developed world, and more people employed than ever before. I am sure

:32:41.:32:44.

you will have more chance to say that at the general election, what

:32:45.:32:49.

is the answer to my question? We need a Europe which is focused on

:32:50.:32:53.

free trade and the single market. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

:32:54.:32:57.

the status quo, we are not. We are the only party which can bring about

:32:58.:33:01.

change, UKIP cannot bring about any change. Hilary Benn, why not have a

:33:02.:33:11.

referendum on Europe? If you think like Nigel Farage that you should

:33:12.:33:15.

get out of Europe, I do not agree with him, because Britain's future

:33:16.:33:19.

lies in Europe. My message simply would be, vote for a party which

:33:20.:33:23.

wants to tackle insecurity in the workplace, to give more security to

:33:24.:33:27.

the 9 million people who are now privately renting, build more homes.

:33:28.:33:34.

What Simon has just said about the coalition's housing record, it has

:33:35.:33:38.

been appalling, the lowest level since Stanley Baldwin was Prime

:33:39.:33:42.

Minister. With Labour, you have got a party which will freeze energy

:33:43.:33:46.

prices, more childcare, policies which directly address the problems

:33:47.:33:51.

which people face. I think the public will realise that. UKIP

:33:52.:33:55.

offers absolutely nothing at all for the future of the country. You used

:33:56.:34:00.

to be in favour of a referendum? We are in favour, we voted for one, we

:34:01.:34:04.

have legislated for one. The next time there is a change between

:34:05.:34:08.

Britain and Europe, in the relationship, there will be a

:34:09.:34:14.

referendum. We have supported that. We voted for it. You would obviously

:34:15.:34:19.

want to vote yes in any referendum. We would. But if you had one now, it

:34:20.:34:27.

would be for coming out or staying in, and you are going to wait until

:34:28.:34:30.

there is another step son shall transfer of powers to Brussels, and

:34:31.:34:36.

then say to people, either vote for this substantial transfer or vote to

:34:37.:34:43.

leave! Of course they will vote to leave! Yes, we are not natural

:34:44.:34:50.

partners with the Conservatives, but we do not want to be distracted at

:34:51.:34:55.

the moment by a referendum in the future in relation to Europe.

:34:56.:34:58.

Because what we have done is built our own economy back. That has been

:34:59.:35:06.

the priority. We do not want artificial priorities. The Tories

:35:07.:35:09.

want an artificial date plucked out of the air for their own advantage.

:35:10.:35:14.

We say, let's get on with being positive about being in Europe, and

:35:15.:35:17.

many people on the doorstep absolutely understand that.

:35:18.:35:21.

Yesterday, the Energy Minister said that he thought the party would be

:35:22.:35:25.

willing to campaign for a British withdrawal from the EU if there was

:35:26.:35:32.

not a successful negotiation, a successful repatriation, do you

:35:33.:35:38.

agree with that? First of all, I am very optimistic... I got that I am

:35:39.:35:48.

going into these negotiations with confidence but Michael Fallon is one

:35:49.:35:51.

of your ministerial colleagues, he said that if we cannot get a deal on

:35:52.:35:56.

substantial repatriation, then the party should be willing to campaign

:35:57.:36:01.

for a British withdrawal - do you agree? My view is that I am

:36:02.:36:05.

confident we will get a deal, and then we will put it to the British

:36:06.:36:10.

people. But you will have to take a line. If you do not get substantial

:36:11.:36:14.

repatriations, will you side with Michael Fallon all with the Prime

:36:15.:36:17.

Minister, who seems to want to stay in regardless? I may only have been

:36:18.:36:23.

in politics for four years, but I am not going to ask that kind of

:36:24.:36:26.

hypothetical question. Every question I ask is hypothetical, that

:36:27.:36:33.

is the fascination of the programme! I go into these negotiations with

:36:34.:36:36.

complete confidence. If you look at our track record, it suggests we

:36:37.:36:43.

will be successful. Hilary Benn, what is the difference between your

:36:44.:36:47.

attitude and that of the Lib Dems towards a referendum? We have been

:36:48.:36:53.

very clear that if it is proposed at sometime in the future, further

:36:54.:36:58.

powers would be transferred, then, we would put that to the British

:36:59.:37:01.

people in a referendum. That is the Lib Dem position. This is our

:37:02.:37:07.

position, which I am planing to you. It would be an in-out referendum. We

:37:08.:37:12.

would only agree to a transfer of powers if we thought that it was in

:37:13.:37:18.

the interest of Britain. But we believe that Britain's place remains

:37:19.:37:20.

and should remain in Europe, for economic reasons. But we also want

:37:21.:37:28.

to see some changes in our relationship with Europe, and

:37:29.:37:34.

electing Labour MEPs on Thursday will be a way of boosting that

:37:35.:37:41.

argument. In what way is everything you have just said not entirely sell

:37:42.:37:45.

my must with the Lib Dem position? I am not worried about that. --

:37:46.:37:53.

entirely synonymous. It is the dividing line between us and UKIP,

:37:54.:37:56.

because they somehow believe that Britain leaving the European Union

:37:57.:38:00.

would be good for our economy. Truth is, it would be really bad, because

:38:01.:38:05.

so many jobs depend on being part of a large market in an increasingly

:38:06.:38:17.

globalised world. I have got one more question for you on the locals.

:38:18.:38:19.

We seem to have lost our connection more question for you on the locals.

:38:20.:38:24.

with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should

:38:25.:38:28.

vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just

:38:29.:38:31.

that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot

:38:32.:38:35.

more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at

:38:36.:38:38.

Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not

:38:39.:38:42.

been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that

:38:43.:38:48.

is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible

:38:49.:38:51.

of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of

:38:52.:38:54.

the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.

:38:55.:39:01.

We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -

:39:02.:39:08.

he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday

:39:09.:39:13.

Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for

:39:14.:39:16.

Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming In the East Midlands, it's election

:39:17.:39:26.

week and we're out on the c`mpaign week and we're out on the c`mpaign

:39:27.:39:31.

trail as the parties fight for your vote.

:39:32.:39:32.

Hello, sir. Would you like ` Hello, sir. Would you like `

:39:33.:39:35.

handful? Do you live local? I do, yes. That's a Labour candid`te. Are

:39:36.:39:37.

yes. That's a Labour candidate. Are you voting next week in the local

:39:38.:39:42.

elections? I shall be, yes. We'll be taking a close look at this

:39:43.:39:46.

week's vote for our local councils, and trying to work out how our

:39:47.:39:49.

European candidates get round such a sprawling patch.

:39:50.:39:52.

I've been out on the road to discover the vast Euro constituency

:39:53.:39:55.

that makes up the East Midl`nds Think of it as a road movie but with

:39:56.:40:04.

votes. Hello, I'm Marie Ashby and this week

:40:05.:40:07.

we have a full house, with representatives from four p`rties

:40:08.:40:08.

we have a full house, with representatives from four parties in

:40:09.:40:09.

representatives from four p`rties in the studio and we'll also be

:40:10.:40:10.

representatives from four parties in the studio and we'll also bd hearing

:40:11.:40:11.

the studio and we'll also be hearing from the Greens as we gear tp for

:40:12.:40:13.

the studio and we'll also bd hearing from the Greens as we gear up for a

:40:14.:40:13.

from the Greens as we gear tp for a vital election week. Sir Edward

:40:14.:40:16.

Garnier is the Conservative MP for Harborough, Chris Williamson is

:40:17.:40:19.

Labour's MP for Derby North. Also here ` Stuart Bray, the Lib Dem

:40:20.:40:22.

leader of Hinckley and Bosworth Borough Council, and David Parsons,

:40:23.:40:25.

a former Tory leader of Leicestershire County Counchl and

:40:26.:40:28.

now a UKIP candidate for North West Leicestershire. Welcome to you all.

:40:29.:40:32.

Leicestershire. Welcome to xou all. So, first of all, we're going to

:40:33.:40:34.

take a look at the local elections take a look at the local elections

:40:35.:40:36.

in our patch. In three of otr take a look at the local eldctions

:40:37.:40:38.

in our patch. In three of otr local authorities, a third of the council

:40:39.:40:42.

is up for election ` at Derby City Council and Bassetlaw in

:40:43.:40:43.

Nottinghamshire, but most eyes Council and Bassetlaw in

:40:44.:40:44.

Nottinghamshire, but most exes will Nottinghamshire, but most exes will

:40:45.:40:44.

be on the voting in a council that's be on the voting in a counchl that's

:40:45.:40:48.

also a vital Parliamentary larginal. Helen McCulloch reports from Amber

:40:49.:40:52.

Valley. Hello, sir. Would you like a

:40:53.:40:54.

Hello, sir. Would you like ` handful? Do you live local? I do,

:40:55.:40:57.

yes. Well, that's a Labour candidate. Are you voting next

:40:58.:40:59.

yes. Well, that's a Labour candidate. Are you voting ndxt week

:41:00.:40:59.

candidate. Are you voting next week in the local elections? I shall be,

:41:00.:41:04.

yes. I'd like to think you can support us. Will you be voting

:41:05.:41:06.

yes. I'd like to think you can support us. Will you be vothng the

:41:07.:41:08.

next week? Not Labour, no. Fair enough. Last`minute leaflethng

:41:09.:41:10.

next week? Not Labour, no. Fair enough. Last`minute leafleting in

:41:11.:41:14.

Ripley. Despite a majority of just three, the Conservative leader is

:41:15.:41:17.

ready for the fight. Thanks very much. Thank you. We have coped very

:41:18.:41:22.

well with all the cuts that have been passed up from Westminster. We

:41:23.:41:24.

have a council which is verx have a council which is very

:41:25.:41:28.

efficient, very effective. We have had to make some changes, cuts and

:41:29.:41:29.

had to make some changes, ctts and costs, but at the end of the day the

:41:30.:41:34.

front line services have not been reduced at all. In fact, they

:41:35.:41:38.

front line services have not been reduced at all. In fact, thdy have

:41:39.:41:39.

been improved. The key issues, reduced at all. In fact, they have

:41:40.:41:41.

been improved. The key issuds, the main issues are around housing,

:41:42.:41:44.

cleanliness of the streets, regeneration of the town centres. I

:41:45.:41:46.

think the council at the moment regeneration of the town centres. I

:41:47.:41:48.

think the council at the molent just think the council at the molent just

:41:49.:41:52.

seem to lack a direction. There are 16 seats up for grabs across Amber

:41:53.:41:56.

Valley. The council has been held by Conservatives for the past 04

:41:57.:41:57.

Valley. The council has been held by Conservatives for the past 14 years.

:41:58.:42:00.

This is by no means a two`horse race. UKIP is out in force, fielding

:42:01.:42:05.

candidates in every ward. The reality is the Conservatives have to

:42:06.:42:07.

look to UKIP. UKIP will take reality is the Conservatives have to

:42:08.:42:08.

look to UKIP. UKIP will takd some look to UKIP. UKIP will takd some

:42:09.:42:12.

votes off them. It depends on local issues. Labour tend to suffer

:42:13.:42:15.

votes off them. It depends on local issues. Labour tend to suffdr more

:42:16.:42:16.

issues. Labour tend to suffer more at the hands of the BNP. Whdther it

:42:17.:42:18.

at the hands of the BNP. Whether it is going to be Conservative or

:42:19.:42:21.

Labour doing very well, it depends again on local issues. It is all

:42:22.:42:26.

about the local matters as far as we are concerned. I think the TKIP vote

:42:27.:42:30.

will do more damage to the Conservatives although it does

:42:31.:42:32.

actually have an impact on the Labour vote. But you just h`ve to

:42:33.:42:34.

Labour vote. But you just have to look at what their policies are A

:42:35.:42:38.

party that wants to come out of Europe ` what credible policies have

:42:39.:42:41.

they for local government and dealing with community issuds like

:42:42.:42:42.

dog dirt, messy streets? They dealing with community issues like

:42:43.:42:45.

dog dirt, messy streets? Thdy don't have policies on that. How worried

:42:46.:42:49.

are you about the UKIP factor? I'm not worried. I'm concerned. Because

:42:50.:42:55.

it will dilute the vote. And it will dilute the vote for everyone,

:42:56.:42:56.

dilute the vote for everyond, actually.

:42:57.:43:03.

Diluting the vote for everyone, David? Hardly. If you look `t

:43:04.:43:06.

Diluting the vote for everyone, David? Hardly. If you look at our

:43:07.:43:08.

poll ratings nationally, in the Euro elections and in other elections, we

:43:09.:43:11.

are actually heading those polls in some instances. So all people can do

:43:12.:43:15.

in a local election is to stand for what they believe. UKIP candidates

:43:16.:43:19.

will do that. We have 150 councillors nationwide and we expect

:43:20.:43:20.

to get quite a few more. Edward, to get quite a few more. Edward,

:43:21.:43:25.

everyone is expecting UKIP, in reality, to take some Conservative

:43:26.:43:28.

votes. Will that let Labour through the door? Who knows? We will find

:43:29.:43:33.

out. Over 50% of the BNP now support UKIP so they have an interesting

:43:34.:43:37.

collection of people who want to support them. It is up to the public

:43:38.:43:43.

how they want to vote. I suggest it is a mistake to vote for UKIP,

:43:44.:43:45.

how they want to vote. I suggest it is a mistake to vote for UKHP, more

:43:46.:43:48.

than a mistake. It is a pitx because it will let in Labour candidates in

:43:49.:43:51.

where there are sitting Conservatives, which will lead

:43:52.:43:52.

where there are sitting Conservatives, which will ldad to

:43:53.:43:52.

Conservatives, which will lead to precisely the object that m`ny

:43:53.:43:53.

Conservatives, which will ldad to precisely the object that many UKIP

:43:54.:43:54.

supporters don't want to sed. supporters don't want to sed.

:43:55.:43:58.

Talking of the UKIP threat, David Cameron has ordered Tory MPs to

:43:59.:44:01.

visit Newark at least three times during the by`election to stop that

:44:02.:44:08.

UKIP advance. Have you been? I went there yesterday, Saturday, `nd

:44:09.:44:09.

UKIP advance. Have you been? I went there yesterday, Saturday, and I

:44:10.:44:11.

shall be going there tomorrow, on Monday. Chris, shouldn't Labour be

:44:12.:44:16.

way ahead in the polls right now? I think we are doing pretty wdll,

:44:17.:44:17.

actually. We are not complacent. think we are doing pretty well,

:44:18.:44:19.

actually. We are not complacent We actually. We are not complacent. We

:44:20.:44:20.

will fight for every possible vote. I think we are in uncharted

:44:21.:44:24.

territory at the moment. Thd advent of the UKIP reminds me a little bit

:44:25.:44:29.

of the early 1980s when the SDP came on the scene and you saw re`l

:44:30.:44:32.

turmoil in the polls. All three parties, as it was then, were neck

:44:33.:44:38.

and neck. The difference thhs time, of course, is that the centre`left

:44:39.:44:42.

vote tended to be more split. I think this time it is the

:44:43.:44:45.

centre`right vote. We are not being complacent. I think we have a very

:44:46.:44:49.

exciting offer. We will be campaigning for people to vote on a

:44:50.:44:52.

very positive prospectus whhch Labour will put forward. Stuart,

:44:53.:44:54.

Labour will put forward. Sttart everyone seems to be writing off the

:44:55.:44:58.

Lib Dems' opportunities. Wh`t about you? Absolutely not. We always hear

:44:59.:45:03.

people writing off Lib Dem chances and I have defended my council since

:45:04.:45:05.

the Coalition, my County Cotncil the Coalition, my County Council

:45:06.:45:09.

seat. We are still winning elections. We have a full slate of

:45:10.:45:12.

candidates across Amber he says. But I just go back. People

:45:13.:47:04.

are in the mood to not support the old parties. I am absolutelx

:47:05.:47:06.

are in the mood to not support the old parties. I am absolutely amazed

:47:07.:47:10.

at the number of people, as I say. I was in Newark yesterday and in

:47:11.:47:13.

Bingham. Everyone is going to Newark. And Bingham. And thd number

:47:14.:47:18.

of people who came up and said Newark. And Bingham. And the number

:47:19.:47:20.

of people who came up and s`id they of people who came up and said they

:47:21.:47:22.

were fed up with the old politics and liked what we are saying. We are

:47:23.:47:27.

allowing them to discuss the and liked what we are saying. We are

:47:28.:47:28.

allowing them to discuss thd issues. allowing them to discuss the issues.

:47:29.:47:32.

I had a smile when he talked about them being the antiestablishment

:47:33.:47:39.

party. The truth of it is that their leader has been a professional

:47:40.:47:42.

politician for the last 15 years. Their policies represent thd very

:47:43.:47:46.

worst of the old politics when you actually look at what they really

:47:47.:47:49.

stand for. They are turbo`charged Tories. Thatcherite Tories. They

:47:50.:47:53.

want to have a flat rate tax, which would mean a big reduction in

:47:54.:47:55.

want to have a flat rate tax, which would mean a big reduction hn taxes

:47:56.:47:55.

would mean a big reduction in taxes for millionaires. Even more than

:47:56.:48:01.

this lot did with the reduction .. You're quite enjoying sitting in

:48:02.:48:02.

that position, aren't you? Actually, that position, aren't you? @ctually,

:48:03.:48:05.

it would mean ordinary workhng people, who they claim to appeal to,

:48:06.:48:07.

would actually pay more. They would would actually pay more. Thdy would

:48:08.:48:12.

be quite content with privatisation of the NHS. They want to take away

:48:13.:48:17.

workers' rights, maternity rights. When people actually understand what

:48:18.:48:20.

UKIP stand for, people that associate with the left of centre

:48:21.:48:22.

and the Labour Party and are and the Labour Party and ard

:48:23.:48:25.

thinking about voting UKIP, when they realise what UKIP really stand

:48:26.:48:32.

for... Are you going to let him carry on like this? Describing

:48:33.:48:33.

for... Are you going to let him carry on like this? Describhng you

:48:34.:48:33.

carry on like this? Describing you as turbo Tories? I have news for

:48:34.:48:38.

Chris. Lots of Labour supporters are coming up to us in the stredt

:48:39.:48:40.

Chris. Lots of Labour supporters are coming up to us in the street and

:48:41.:48:42.

saying they are not going to vote Labour any more. But you want to

:48:43.:48:44.

privatise the NHS. Tell them you privatise the NHS. Tell thel you

:48:45.:48:46.

want to increase their tax rate. privatise the NHS. Tell them you

:48:47.:48:47.

want to increase their tax rate And want to increase their tax rate. And

:48:48.:48:50.

take away their workers' rights What I am in favour of is a good NHS

:48:51.:48:55.

where it is publicly provided or privately provided, as you have done

:48:56.:49:00.

when you were in office. Let's have a good NHS for the patients. You're

:49:01.:49:05.

not being honest. The questhon not being honest. The question

:49:06.:49:09.

people need to ask themselvds before the European elections is which is

:49:10.:49:13.

the party which will give the people a referendum on the in/out puestion?

:49:14.:49:16.

a referendum on the in/out question? It is only the Conservatives that

:49:17.:49:20.

can do that. They can do a lot of talking. They don't want ond, they

:49:21.:49:24.

don't want one, they can't do it. I recognise the benefits of being in

:49:25.:49:25.

recognise the benefits of bding in the European Union. Well, let's

:49:26.:49:27.

recognise the benefits of being in the European Union. Well, ldt's get

:49:28.:49:27.

the European Union. Well, let's get a referendum. I've got nothhng to

:49:28.:49:31.

fear from a referendum. I think when the arguments are out there, I am

:49:32.:49:35.

certain, as the British people did 40`odd years ago, they voted to

:49:36.:49:39.

remain in the European Union. When you look at the East Midlands, for

:49:40.:49:42.

example, the biggest inward investment that Western Europe has

:49:43.:49:47.

ever seen is Toyota. They only came here because of our membership of

:49:48.:49:59.

the EU. They promised one before and they haven't delivered. Why should

:50:00.:50:03.

we believe the Conservatives on their referendum now? The thing

:50:04.:50:06.

people are interested in is the cost of living, being able to pay their

:50:07.:50:08.

of living, being able to pax their mortgage, how much wages are they

:50:09.:50:10.

mortgage, how much wages ard they taking home each week? HMRC

:50:11.:50:17.

figures, last week, came out. They will no doubt say what a great job

:50:18.:50:19.

will no doubt say what a grdat job they are doing repairing the economy

:50:20.:50:21.

and getting growth back. Thd they are doing repairing thd economy

:50:22.:50:23.

and getting growth back. The reality and getting growth back. The reality

:50:24.:50:28.

is... It is only 300,000, the top 300,000 wealthiest people in the

:50:29.:50:34.

country who have seen an increase. 27 million taxpayers in this period

:50:35.:50:37.

of growth have seen a reduction in their... We will carry this on in a

:50:38.:50:41.

minute. You can get more information on who is standing in each wards by

:50:42.:50:47.

going to each council's website Let's move onto the other election

:50:48.:50:50.

that's taking place on Thursday for the European Parliament. Despite the

:50:51.:50:55.

fierce rows that Europe evokes, it's not a campaign that seems to have

:50:56.:50:58.

caught the public imagination. But could that be because the East

:50:59.:51:00.

could that be because the E`st Midlands is so big the parties find

:51:01.:51:02.

Midlands is so big the parthes find it hard to connect with voters?

:51:03.:51:04.

Midlands is so big the parties find it hard to connect with votdrs? Our

:51:05.:51:05.

it hard to connect with voters? Our political editor, John Hess, has

:51:06.:51:06.

been on an East Midlands ro`d political editor, John Hess, has

:51:07.:51:09.

been on an East Midlands ro`d trip. This is a car journey with a

:51:10.:51:11.

This is a car journey with ` difference. I am setting off to find

:51:12.:51:16.

out how big the East Midlands Euro constituency actually is and whether

:51:17.:51:19.

that is a factor for the low voter interest. First stop, Nottingham,

:51:20.:51:22.

and an expert on how the political wind is blowing. Generally, I think

:51:23.:51:26.

the European Union and the Europe the European Union and the Europe

:51:27.:51:28.

project has failed to reallx make project has failed to really make

:51:29.:51:31.

the case to voters, particularly in Britain, who have long been more

:51:32.:51:34.

Eurosceptic, as to why thesd elections really matter. Voters

:51:35.:51:41.

struggle to name their MEPs. And they struggle to understand how the

:51:42.:51:43.

system of proportional representation works, because we

:51:44.:51:47.

have a different system in Britain. Back on the road. Destination,

:51:48.:51:53.

north. This is the town of Glossop. Just over the hill a few miles away

:51:54.:51:55.

is Manchester City centre. Xet the is Manchester City centre. Xet the

:51:56.:52:00.

people here, despite the proximity to Greater Manchester, will be

:52:01.:52:01.

voting for their five East Lidlands voting for their five East Lidlands

:52:02.:52:05.

MEPs and that is because we are on the very north`western edge of

:52:06.:52:11.

Derbyshire. The East Midlands Euro constituency covers five counties

:52:12.:52:12.

constituency covers five cotnties and includes 3.2 million voters.

:52:13.:52:15.

and includes 3.2 million voters That is a lot of votes to count.

:52:16.:52:17.

That is a lot of votes to count Probably 10`15,000 staff, 3000

:52:18.:52:21.

polling stations. Bringing that together, coordinating it and coming

:52:22.:52:24.

to some sensible result that everyone has confidence in hs quite

:52:25.:52:32.

an operation. From Derbyshire's high peak, I am heading east to the Fens.

:52:33.:52:36.

I've arrived in Boston in Lincolnshire and it has takdn

:52:37.:52:37.

I've arrived in Boston in Lincolnshire and it has taken me

:52:38.:52:37.

I've arrived in Boston in Lincolnshire and it has takdn me 2.5

:52:38.:52:38.

hours to drive here and made Lincolnshire and it has taken me 2.5

:52:39.:52:39.

hours to drive here and madd me hours to drive here and made me

:52:40.:52:42.

realise how difficult it is for the parties and their candidates in this

:52:43.:52:45.

election to get around such a vast regional constituency.

:52:46.:52:50.

Have you had all the leaflets of the parties? We have had some. Two so

:52:51.:52:57.

far. That's about it. I think we had got more leaflets it would be easier

:52:58.:53:01.

for me to get the information and to decide. No, I've only had one. Who's

:53:02.:53:07.

that from? UKIP. And he's not getting my vote. Voters oftdn use

:53:08.:53:11.

getting my vote. Voters often use European elections as a way of

:53:12.:53:14.

kicking incumbent governments in the mouth. It is often seen as ` form of

:53:15.:53:17.

mouth. It is often seen as a form of elections that encourage a protest

:53:18.:53:18.

vote. Likely because voters don't vote. Likely because voters don't

:53:19.:53:21.

treat them as important as general elections. Back on the road and I've

:53:22.:53:30.

already clocked up 250 miles. This is where our journey across the Euro

:53:31.:53:33.

constituency of the East Midlands ends, at the Kettering Conference

:53:34.:53:37.

Centre in Northamptonshire. The count will be held inside the

:53:38.:53:40.

centre's sports hall, three days after we have voted. Why the delay?

:53:41.:53:44.

after we have voted. Why thd delay? No votes can be counted in any

:53:45.:53:47.

election whilst anyone can still be voting. You can't announce results

:53:48.:53:54.

while the voting is still going on. The voting will still be going on in

:53:55.:53:56.

Italy up to ten o'clock UK time By Italy up to ten o'clock UK time. By

:53:57.:54:00.

next Sunday evening, after the rest of Europe has voted, we will find

:54:01.:54:04.

out the five MEPs who will represent us in the European Parliament.

:54:05.:54:10.

John clocked up 320 miles on that road trip! Isn't campaigning in this

:54:11.:54:15.

election mission impossible for local candidates? By the European

:54:16.:54:20.

constituency, yes. This is ` local candidates? By the European

:54:21.:54:23.

constituency, yes. This is a vast geographical area with 3.2 lillion

:54:24.:54:27.

people in it. It is not easx. Personally, I would prefer to go

:54:28.:54:30.

back to the one member, one constituency system we used to have

:54:31.:54:33.

20 years ago. That seems to have gone. I would also like to get rid

:54:34.:54:39.

of the PR system but, again, the European rules suggest otherwise. It

:54:40.:54:41.

is a vast area. Is it too bhg? It is a vast area. Is it too big? It

:54:42.:54:47.

is, in my view. This is the third Euro election I have been in for the

:54:48.:54:51.

Liberal Democrats. It is 1.8 million houses. Trying to get a campaign

:54:52.:54:55.

across that area is just... It is very tricky. We have to do what we

:54:56.:54:58.

can. We have the advantage in very tricky. We have to do what we

:54:59.:55:00.

can. We have the advantage hn this can. We have the advantage in this

:55:01.:55:02.

election of Royal Mail election address, which major parties use to

:55:03.:55:05.

make sure they get the message out. But it is difficult. What you need

:55:06.:55:11.

is to get the message to voters and they need to get one back to you.

:55:12.:55:16.

The one thing coming over to us is that we cannot control our borders

:55:17.:55:20.

and immigration. Whenever I go and campaign in this massive

:55:21.:55:23.

constituency, which I agree is too big, those messages come over

:55:24.:55:24.

constituency, which I agree is too big, those messages come ovdr and

:55:25.:55:26.

politicians ignore them at their peril. The people missing out here

:55:27.:55:33.

are the voters because they don t are the voters because they don't

:55:34.:55:36.

get to see their European candidates. How can they know what

:55:37.:55:38.

they're voting for what thex stand they're voting for what thex stand

:55:39.:55:44.

for? I agree with Edward in relation to the size of the constituency. And

:55:45.:55:48.

to the size of the constitudncy And unhappiness with proportional

:55:49.:55:53.

representation. I think going back to the single member, singld

:55:54.:55:55.

constituency would be something people can understand more easily.

:55:56.:55:58.

people can understand more dasily. But are you just saving your pennies

:55:59.:56:02.

for next year and don't want to blow the budget on these elections? The

:56:03.:56:04.

Labour candidates have cert`inly Labour candidates have certainly

:56:05.:56:05.

been pretty visible. They h`ve got been pretty visible. They h`ve got

:56:06.:56:11.

round a lot of areas in Derby. They have the advantage in Derby as well

:56:12.:56:13.

of having local elections, `nd have the advantage in Derby as well

:56:14.:56:15.

of having local elections, `nd in some other areas. That helps to

:56:16.:56:20.

garner the troops and get local activists out getting the message

:56:21.:56:22.

garner the troops and get local activists out getting the mdssage to

:56:23.:56:27.

the local electorate. But it is definitely a major challenge.

:56:28.:56:30.

the local electorate. But it is definitely a major challengd. Even

:56:31.:56:32.

in the old days when we had the whole of Derbyshire and part of

:56:33.:56:40.

Nottinghamshire. That was also a major challenge. The Lib Dems

:56:41.:56:43.

Nottinghamshire. That was also a major challenge. The Lib Dels are

:56:44.:56:43.

major challenge. The Lib Dems are targeting the Polish vote. We are

:56:44.:56:47.

targeting every vote. There is clearly a section of the colmunity

:56:48.:56:49.

clearly a section of the community which is pro`European. One of our

:56:50.:56:53.

messages is about jobs and the future of jobs by being in Durope.

:56:54.:56:56.

We also have a message about the record of our MEP, the longdst

:56:57.:56:58.

record of our MEP, the longest serving and most experienced one in

:56:59.:57:02.

the whole of Europe. He also has the best voting record of any MDPs in

:57:03.:57:09.

the region. We are taking that message positively to as many people

:57:10.:57:14.

as we can. David? As I say, it is a huge challenge to get to these

:57:15.:57:20.

people. It is all about the message. Actually, our candidates have been

:57:21.:57:21.

getting all the way over thhs getting all the way over thhs

:57:22.:57:27.

massive constituency. They `re being told immigration is the number one

:57:28.:57:33.

issue. And we really do need to tackle our borders. They have been

:57:34.:57:36.

left porous by the Coalition Government. This is one thing which

:57:37.:57:44.

we have really got to take on. He's a one`trick pony that can only talk

:57:45.:57:47.

about immigration. He can't talk about positive aspects are the

:57:48.:57:52.

benefits of... I recall he said how marvellous the coalition was. I

:57:53.:58:03.

never said that. As you well know. We have heard from all of you in the

:58:04.:58:07.

studio at the moment. But the Green Party is hoping to make headway in

:58:08.:58:09.

the European elections. Herd's what the European elections. Here's what

:58:10.:58:12.

East Midlands Green Tony Clarke makes of their prospects.

:58:13.:58:15.

The Greens are now polling `nd as our vote grows, the Lib Dem vote

:58:16.:58:20.

shrinks. I think also UKIP stole the lead because they were shouting. But

:58:21.:58:25.

lead because they were shouting But once you get behind the shouting,

:58:26.:58:27.

once you get behind the shotting, you realise they are pretty nasty.

:58:28.:58:30.

They want to privatise the NHS and take maternity leave away and all

:58:31.:58:34.

those issues. Those looking for an alternative from the tradithonal

:58:35.:58:36.

parties want something more positive that can be delivered. We are

:58:37.:58:42.

gaining votes from both ends of the spectrum. From Lib Dems who can t

:58:43.:58:45.

gaining votes from both ends of the spectrum. From Lib Dems who can't be

:58:46.:58:47.

trusted anymore but also from those who went to UKIP for an alternative

:58:48.:58:49.

who went to UKIP for an altdrnative but didn't like what they found.

:58:50.:58:54.

The Greens have clearly got you in their sights and some polls have

:58:55.:58:57.

them neck and neck. I don't believe it, to be honest. Chris mentioned

:58:58.:59:01.

local elections in Derby. I helped in the last ones. The Greens had

:59:02.:59:05.

candidates standing in quitd a lot of wards and they have none this

:59:06.:59:08.

time. They have hardly any councillors in the region at all. I

:59:09.:59:12.

do not think they are threat in this election. Could they pick up protest

:59:13.:59:15.

votes like UKIP, people who perhaps don't want to vote for them will

:59:16.:59:19.

turn to the Greens instead? They might do. Obviously with

:59:20.:59:21.

proportional representation it plays to the advantage of smaller parties

:59:22.:59:24.

like the Greens. My message to anybody concerned about the

:59:25.:59:26.

environment and sustainabilhty anybody concerned about the

:59:27.:59:26.

environment and sustainability is anybody concerned about the

:59:27.:59:27.

environment and sustainability is to vote for Labour because thex are

:59:28.:59:29.

environment and sustainabilhty is to vote for Labour because they are the

:59:30.:59:29.

vote for Labour because thex are the party which introduced the Climate

:59:30.:59:32.

Change Act and they are the party of the green movement which can

:59:33.:59:34.

actually deliver positive bdnefits actually deliver positive benefits

:59:35.:59:44.

on the environment. I would hope that anybody thinking of dallying

:59:45.:59:47.

with the Greens will actually look at Labour's programme and recognise

:59:48.:59:48.

at Labour's programme and rdcognise the should cast their vote for us.

:59:49.:59:56.

Edward. We have the advantage in Leicestershire that our teal

:59:57.:59:57.

Edward. We have the advantage in Leicestershire that our team can

:59:58.:59:57.

Leicestershire that our teal can concentrate on the European

:59:58.:59:58.

elections, not distracted by concentrate on the European

:59:59.:59:59.

elections, not distracted bx no elections, not distracted by no

:00:00.:00:01.

doubt very important local elections in other parts of the region. But we

:00:02.:00:08.

have a good story to tell on immigration, law and order, criminal

:00:09.:00:10.

justice, foreign affairs. Wd immigration, law and order, criminal

:00:11.:00:12.

justice, foreign affairs. We have immigration, law and order, criminal

:00:13.:00:13.

justice, foreign affairs. Wd have a justice, foreign affairs. We have a

:00:14.:00:15.

strong team led by Emma McClarkin. Stuart, you will be hoping to cling

:00:16.:00:20.

on. Five years ago, people were saying that Bill Newton Dunn would

:00:21.:00:22.

lose his seat because of the lose his seat because of the

:00:23.:00:25.

enlargement. He won and I expect his positive message and campaign to win

:00:26.:00:29.

again. Full details on all the candidates standing are on the BBC

:00:30.:00:32.

website. Just go to bbc.co.uk/vote2014. Time for a

:00:33.:00:38.

round`up of some of the othdr round`up of some of the othdr

:00:39.:00:41.

political stories in the East Midlands this week ` here's John

:00:42.:00:42.

with 60 seconds. Some of our council`owned tourist

:00:43.:00:49.

attractions could find themselves in new hands as Nottinghamshire County

:00:50.:00:55.

Council grapples with budget cuts. Labour leader Alan Rhodes s`id

:00:56.:00:56.

Labour leader Alan Rhodes said handing over the Holme Pierrepont

:00:57.:00:59.

Watersports Centre to a trust had been a success. Sherwood Forest

:01:00.:01:05.

Visitor Centre could be next. Protesters in Leicester are

:01:06.:01:07.

celebrating a partial victory to stop Tesco opening a store hn

:01:08.:01:11.

Clarendon Park. The supermarket need permission to make alterations to

:01:12.:01:13.

the former Barclays Bank buhlding on the former Barclays Bank buhlding on

:01:14.:01:17.

Queens Road. The Loughborough MP Nicky Morgan is

:01:18.:01:19.

pointing out a tip to constituents pointing out a tip to constituents

:01:20.:01:22.

that could save them ?140 on their energy bills this winter. She is

:01:23.:01:27.

urging them to sign up to a British Gas Warm Home scheme.

:01:28.:01:31.

More police stations will close to save ?12.7 million under pl`ns being

:01:32.:01:34.

considered by Nottinghamshire's Police Commissioner Paddy Thpping.

:01:35.:01:40.

Labour MPs Graham Allen and Chris Leslie have voiced concerns,

:01:41.:01:50.

claiming Government austerity cuts. `` blaming.

:01:51.:01:53.

Polling begins at 7am on Thtrsday and next Sunday we'll have all

:01:54.:01:55.

Polling begins at 7am on Thursday and next Sunday we'll have `ll the

:01:56.:01:57.

results from the council elections and the latest on those European

:01:58.:01:58.

elections too. Join politic`l editor elections too. Join political editor

:01:59.:02:02.

John Hess for the European dlection John Hess for the European dlection

:02:03.:02:06.

debate on your BBC local radio station from seven o'clock tomorrow

:02:07.:02:13.

evening. Thanks to all our guests. Time to hand you back to Andrew

:02:14.:02:15.

Neil. thank you very much indeed. Back to

:02:16.:02:20.

Andrew. Welcome back. Politicians always

:02:21.:02:34.

insist in public that opinion polls do not matter. Even though their own

:02:35.:02:39.

parties each spend a small fortune on private polling. If they take

:02:40.:02:45.

them seriously, so do we! Let's take a closer look. First up, how the

:02:46.:02:50.

votes might fall for the European Parliament. Back in January, Labour

:02:51.:02:55.

looked set to finish first. By April, UKIP had edged into the lead.

:02:56.:03:01.

According to today's poles, Nigel Farage's party is either down into

:03:02.:03:04.

place, or has soared ahead. Both cannot be right. It is a similar

:03:05.:03:10.

picture for the general election. Labour's lead has been cut back by

:03:11.:03:26.

the Tories. This is the most unpredictable general election in a

:03:27.:03:28.

long time. It keeps us in a job! We long time. It keeps us in a job We

:03:29.:03:34.

are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.

:03:35.:03:38.

Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the

:03:39.:03:43.

European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is

:03:44.:03:46.

going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of

:03:47.:03:51.

the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more

:03:52.:03:56.

than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are

:03:57.:04:01.

doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,

:04:02.:04:05.

certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them

:04:06.:04:07.

democratically, demographically, democratically, demographically

:04:08.:04:13.

with the older age profile, who are going to vote. Another poll gives

:04:14.:04:24.

them only a one-point lead, so, come the results coming out, you are

:04:25.:04:27.

either going to look away ahead of your time or very stupid?

:04:28.:04:31.

Absolutely. That is the job of pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong.

:04:32.:04:38.

Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009, and we are hoping to be spot on on

:04:39.:04:45.

Thursday. So you were spot on on voting intention in 2009? Yes. What

:04:46.:04:56.

does the indications of what is now a four party system mean, does it

:04:57.:05:05.

change the nature of your methods? It changes how we look at the polls,

:05:06.:05:11.

how we look at what is going to happen as a result of the vote.

:05:12.:05:16.

Predicting the number of seats is becoming more and more important and

:05:17.:05:21.

more difficult to do, because distribution is becoming

:05:22.:05:22.

fundamentally important. Because it is for parties? That's right. . Does

:05:23.:05:31.

the polling give us any evidence to try to settle the matter of whether

:05:32.:05:33.

UKIP votes are coming from? Yes We UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We

:05:34.:05:39.

know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the

:05:40.:05:43.

Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But

:05:44.:05:46.

actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different

:05:47.:05:52.

sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single

:05:53.:05:55.

establishment party should be worried, because the people voting

:05:56.:05:59.

for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.

:06:00.:06:04.

They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of

:06:05.:06:10.

them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class

:06:11.:06:13.

Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the

:06:14.:06:19.

establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who

:06:20.:06:24.

are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,

:06:25.:06:30.

where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are

:06:31.:06:34.

representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,

:06:35.:06:39.

where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote

:06:40.:06:47.

would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any

:06:48.:06:51.

European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much

:06:52.:06:55.

attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that

:06:56.:06:59.

they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic

:07:00.:07:04.

of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would

:07:05.:07:07.

otherwise talk a good game about Nigel Farage, that people who would

:07:08.:07:20.

underestimate how many people are completely disengaged by politics. I

:07:21.:07:28.

think it is very easy for us to think, and I agree that by any other

:07:29.:07:33.

standards, this is the most coverage a European election has ever had in

:07:34.:07:36.

Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick,

:07:37.:07:40.

Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick you

:07:41.:07:40.

don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP

:07:41.:07:46.

photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more

:07:47.:07:49.

motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.

:07:50.:07:53.

Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as

:07:54.:07:57.

Catherine says, Farage has had. And also, as

:07:58.:09:41.

yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will

:09:42.:09:46.

have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the

:09:47.:09:59.

screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could

:10:00.:10:05.

be in some trouble. The Labour MP for Rochdale talking about the

:10:06.:10:10.

mantra of misery which is Labour's policy is not going down well. And

:10:11.:10:14.

there are also rumbles about, if Mr Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in

:10:15.:10:18.

the European elections, that there will be a plot to remove him. There

:10:19.:10:22.

are not many names behind that plot yet, but Vince Cable does get an

:10:23.:10:30.

honourable mention! Not that he is plotting, but he could take over! If

:10:31.:10:38.

Labour comes a poor second, and the Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is

:10:39.:10:43.

nowhere, there is a Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't

:10:44.:10:47.

there? It will be very different for each man. The worst thing that could

:10:48.:10:56.

happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg loses his job, because he will be

:10:57.:11:00.

replaced by somebody substantially to the left of him, you would have

:11:01.:11:04.

to assume, someone like Tim Farron. I think it is unlikely that David

:11:05.:11:09.

Laws Danny Alexander, the two prominent figures who are to the

:11:10.:11:13.

right of him, would win the leadership. If it is someone who is

:11:14.:11:18.

quite a way to the left of Nick Clegg, then some voters might find

:11:19.:11:23.

the party a more attractive proposition. Which is why the Tories

:11:24.:11:28.

want to hold on to Nick Clegg. Absolutely. But I think you are

:11:29.:11:31.

right, there is a really big bubble for Ed Miliband here. The second big

:11:32.:11:37.

thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris

:11:38.:11:40.

Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the

:11:41.:11:45.

chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But

:11:46.:11:53.

where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called

:11:54.:11:56.

Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently.

:11:57.:12:00.

And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not

:12:01.:12:04.

lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And

:12:05.:12:10.

some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves,

:12:11.:12:13.

Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression

:12:14.:12:16.

that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed

:12:17.:12:22.

Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this

:12:23.:12:26.

rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although

:12:27.:12:30.

that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in

:12:31.:12:37.

the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the

:12:38.:12:41.

economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on

:12:42.:12:45.

your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference

:12:46.:12:50.

between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was

:12:51.:12:52.

elected in 2008 after the crash, so elected in 2008 after the crash so

:12:53.:12:56.

everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed

:12:57.:13:02.

Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is

:13:03.:13:05.

difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the

:13:06.:13:10.

Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are

:13:11.:13:15.

much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in

:13:16.:13:18.

the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do

:13:19.:13:25.

matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in

:13:26.:13:31.

the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on

:13:32.:13:36.

the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of

:13:37.:13:39.

confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for

:13:40.:13:46.

years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls

:13:47.:13:53.

could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the

:13:54.:13:58.

election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for

:13:59.:14:02.

that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday

:14:03.:14:06.

There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC

:14:07.:14:10.

Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the

:14:11.:14:14.

European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow

:14:15.:14:18.

lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for

:14:19.:14:22.

The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday

:14:23.:14:25.

The Sunday before we go to the polls in local and European elections, Andrew Neil talks to the culture secretary Sajid Javid, Liberal Democrat Simon Hughes and Labour's Hilary Benn.


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