15/06/2014 Sunday Politics East Midlands


15/06/2014

With Andrew Neil and Marie Ashby. James Rubin, Mark Malloch-Brown and Bayan Rahman debate the Iraq crisis and Jackie Baillie and Blair Jenkins discuss Scottish independence.


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Transcript


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Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:00:37.:00:43.

The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.

:00:44.:00:48.

The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

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But the country now faces a de facto partition.

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What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

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It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

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But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

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Both sides join us to go head to head.

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I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

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that? In East Midlands, what you think

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even Westminster, we'll be asking In East Midlands, what you think

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about immigration? Who cares In London, why the minority vote one

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recent elections Labour, but recent support amongst people is bigger

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than assumed. The Sunni Islamist army known

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as ISIS is now in control of huge swathes of northern

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and western Iraq, including Until the weekend they looked

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like advancing relentlessly on Baghdad but that offensive has

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now been slowed or even halted The Iraqi army

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and its Shia milita allies vow that Baghdad will not be taken and that

:01:55.:01:59.

a counter-attack will soon begin. Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri

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al-Maliki has to do something to reverse the humiliation

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of recent days, which saw his US-trained and equipped Iraqi

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army, which outnumbered the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or

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surrender when confronted by ISIS. The conflict has already created a

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humanitarian crisis, with hundreds The Kurds have used the conflict to

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consolidate their hold on their autonomous area in the north, parts

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of the west and the north are in the grip of ISIS control and the Shias

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are hunkering down in the east. All of which makes a three-way

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partition a real possibility with The US is moving another

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of its massive aircraft carrier battlefleets to the Gulf,

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though the White House shows no While Iran says it's ready to help

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its Shia allies and there are unconfoirmed reports

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that its revolutionary guard has Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's

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diplomatic editor Mark Urban. Let's start with some basics. Who

:02:56.:03:14.

are ISIS and why are they controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS

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is an extremist militant jihad organisation and they have a pure

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Islamic concept based on 14th century history and jurisprudence.

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What they want to do is correct -- create this caliphate that do not

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recognise colonial boundaries so it involves Syria and Iraq, and they

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could go down to Lebanon and Palestine, that is all fair game as

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far as they are concerned. And they have this strict interpretation of

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Islam. The more interesting question is why have semi-Sunni Muslims,

:03:48.:03:53.

along with them, these are precisely the sort of people who in 2006,

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2007, tribal leaders in the west of the country rose up against. It was

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called the Awakening and the Americans in power did and

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bankrolled it. These people turned against them and admired them in

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large numbers, so why do they have so many Sunni Muslims on their

:04:13.:04:15.

side? We hear about people going back to Mosul. I think the answer is

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a perception back to Mosul. I think the answer

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that the current government is ruling in sectarian interests, Shia

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Muslim interest, and the Sunni Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their best bet. Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their Let me put up this map to find out where we are going. We

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can see Mosul in the north, they took that, and then they started,

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South, reports that the crit was involved -- to grit -- to grit. What

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is the situation on the ground now? We are in what you might call a

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consolidation or strategic pause as American called it in 2003. ISIS are

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trying to consolidate their power in Mosul, and now they have this major

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city and they are trying to show they can run the city and get the

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power going, etc. Their southernmost forces, that is a gorilla army, guys

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in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal with serious opposition. They would

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like to get the tanks and other things into action but that could

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take weeks for them to be able to do it. The government side is that they

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have counter-attacked, but it will take a little while before these

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newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will can

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effectively counter-attacked. But that is what will happen in the next

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week or two. We will see increasingly large and serious

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government counter-attacked trying to retake those places, and I fear a

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really difficult, bloody Syrian style street by street battle for

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some of these urban centres. I would like to have a look at this map

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because the Kurds, as I mentioned, they are consolidating their

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position in the autonomous region in the north. The Islamist are taking

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over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim West. And of course the Shia Muslim

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are still dominant in control of Baghdad and in parts of the south

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and east. Back to me looks like the beginnings of the partition of Iraq.

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-- back to me. Well, it is, but we have to caveat it in a few ways

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Firstly, there are millions of people in Iraq, so-called sushi

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combined families, who do not fit easily into the pattern. Do we see

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millions of people becoming refugees under this scheme? There would be a

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lot of human tragedies if people really did try to enforce this type

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partition. Secondly, there are Sunni Muslim communities in the south of

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Baghdad, those places, once again, a lot of misery and fighting will

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occur if people try to enforce a de facto partition. There are still an

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awakening of forces. They are on the side of the government. We heard

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about one group in Samarra of Sunni Muslims fighting on the same side.

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It's a complex picture. They factor, it does look like a partition, and

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if it goes further in that direction it will. And partition will always

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be messy because people end up on the wrong side of the lies.

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Finally, the big thing on that map, Iran, a huge place, a huge border

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with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now becomes a key factor. It is becoming

:07:49.:07:55.

a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I was in Baghdad a few months ago I

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did actually see Iranians revolutionary guards in uniform

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They were protecting a senior Iranians official, so some numbers

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have been never some time and they are also said to protect the

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political leaders and -- in his compound. They are there. We think

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more of them are trying to organise the defence of Baghdad to galvanise

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the Iraqi army, and they will not allow the Iraqi government to fall.

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Mark, thank you for marking archive this morning. -- marking our card.

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Tony Blair took Britain into the Iraq conflict in 2003.

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He's now, among other things, envoy to the Middle East representing

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That's the UN, the EU, the US and Russia.

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This morning he entered the debate about what should be

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My point is simple. If you left Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11

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happened and you have the Arab revolutions going through Tunisia,

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Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and Syria, you would still have had a

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major problem in Iraq. You can see what happens when you leave the

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dictator in place, as has happened with Bashar al-Assad. The problem

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doesn't go away. What I'm trying to say is, we can rerun the debates

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about 2003, and there are perfectly legitimate points on either side,

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but where we are in 2014, we have do understand that this is a regional

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problem, but a problem that will affect us.

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And I'm joined by the former Foreign Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown,

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Here in London are James Rubin, he was chief spokesman

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for the State Department under Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman,

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she represents the Kurdistan Regional government in the UK.

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Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles, we don't intervene in Syria, it s a

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shambles. What lessons should we draw? That is a well framed

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question, because that is the problem. Tony Blair is half right.

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Iraq, like Syria, would probably have been a problem even without an

:10:02.:10:06.

intervention. But one wishes someone would tell him to stay quiet during

:10:07.:10:11.

moments like this, because it does drive a great surge of people in the

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other direction. The fact is, what has been missing in western politics

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towards the Middle East throughout both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a

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drive to build an inclusive, democratic centre which is secular

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and nonsectarian. That has been missing amongst the threats of

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invasion Manon invasion, we have just constantly neglected the

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diplomatic nation-building dimensional this. I want to come

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onto what is happening on the ground. I want to begin with what

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the Western response by me, and by that we mean the United States,

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because of it doesn't do anything, nobody will do anything. All of the

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signals I see coming out of the White is that Barack Obama has no

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appetite for intervention -- out of the White House. I don't think he

:10:59.:11:02.

does have an appetite. He would be very unlikely to do anything very

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large. He might feel pressured to act because of the fact that this

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particular group, this Al-Qaeda inspired group, fits into the

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strategy he has pursued in Yemen and Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use

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drone strikes against individual terrorists. So it is possible that

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the threat of ISIS in the region and the West in general might inspire

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him to act, but the idea he will do enough, militarily, to transform

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Iraq from its current state of civil War into something along the lines

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that Mark was talking about, nation-building diplomacy, a big

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operation, I don't see President Obama sees his historic mission as

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having got the United States as out of it. Leave it to the Pacific,

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perhaps. What would the Kurds like the West to do? First of all, in

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Kurdistan we face a huge humanitarian crisis. We already have

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had bought a quarter of a million Syrian refugees and we were

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struggling to cope with that. And now we have at least double that

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number of refugees coming from Mosul. First and foremost, we are

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calling on the international community to help us with that. So

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we need humanitarian aid? Let's assume we do that in some way, maybe

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not enough, but what else if anything? I think it is an incumbent

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on the west and other powers to assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I

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think the Sunni Arab community, some of whom have joined ISIS and may be

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supported the uprising, have justified complaints against the

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federal government. But we need the terrorists out of Iraq. That is

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first and foremost. And what the West can do is not necessarily

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intervene with boots on the ground, but provide technical assistance,

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provide intelligence and help the Iraqi army and air force to be more

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targeted. Can you defend yourselves? In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the

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disciplined troops. In this situation, I hope they won't be

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abandoning their post, that is for sure. It is a national cause fires.

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But we are not armed in the way that the Iraqi army is -- cause for us.

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We are not armed in the way that ISIS seems to be now they have

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seized some of the American kit We are not asking for weapons, but we

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ask for assistance for all of Iraq to deal with the situation. Mark,

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this is not just an Iraqi problem. This is a regional conflict, and

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from the Levant on the shores of the Mediterranean, all the way through

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to the Gulf, the region is gripped with what is essentially a Sunni and

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Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with the caveats that Mark bourbon made

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earlier, it's not quite that straightforward, but the basic

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divide is exactly that -- Mark Urban. People have been looking for

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this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan and have been taken by surprise

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although with hindsight I'm not sure why, that it has begun in Iraq

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instead. At its most extreme, it risks redrawing the 20th century

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boundaries of the region in a way which would be highly unstable

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because it would pit a Shia Muslim bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc

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and would undo all of the sort of social and economic advance of the

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last century, so the stakes are suddenly very, very high indeed Are

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we seeing the redrawing? The lines were drawn secretly, not far from

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here, about a mile away, and may have survived through thick and

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thin. They now look pretty fragile. The map is being redrawn. I think it

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is true that there is a key factor partition going on -- des facto

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Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit of a hand to the promotion of the

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idea of self-determination, and in a way, there is a self determination

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going on, particularly in the Kurdish region, and perhaps they may

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end up the big winners in all of this, because they have proceeded

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with a relatively moderate, reconcilable government. The key

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thing that the Kurdish region has done. They used to fight the two

:15:33.:15:43.

groups, and now they fight together. What the Sunni Muslims have not done

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is figure out how to let politics let the side things instead of guns.

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We need to look clearly and in Syria and Iraq, if there is a Sunni

:15:57.:16:03.

extremist with ISIS that carves out a place for itself, it will be the

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great irony of the modern era. President Bush said he wanted to go

:16:09.:16:13.

into Iraq to fight terrorism. There was no terrorist. There are now If

:16:14.:16:20.

in Iraq and Syria together thereat a thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability

:16:21.:16:27.

that threatens the region, the West, the world, we are all going to

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have to do something about it. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. You would not want it on your

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southern border. Absolutely, we would not. The point we are all

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making indirectly is that things have changed in Iraq and will never

:17:06.:17:11.

be the same again. Whether Iraq completely disintegrates into three

:17:12.:17:13.

countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but a

:17:14.:17:15.

countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but loose

:17:16.:17:19.

federation, either way, Iraq has changed. It will not go back to what

:17:20.:17:25.

it was. I hope it will change for the better. I think we're at the

:17:26.:17:29.

make or break point for Iraq. Either the political readers -- the

:17:30.:17:37.

political leaders of a right wake up and smell the coffee and put aside

:17:38.:17:41.

their differences or there will be problems. This provides that

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opportunity, in a very nasty way. If we take it? Yes, and if not, I

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opportunity, in a very nasty way. If this is the end of a rack as we know

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it. If anything resembling a caliphate emerges,

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it. If anything resembling a autonomous federal-state. Any

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support for the government must be premised on that. There is no

:18:44.:18:46.

military solution for this which is in

:18:47.:19:46.

military solution for this which is big issues. When Britain and France

:19:47.:19:50.

carved up the Middle East, they were world powers, operating as global

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powers, and without that global leadership by somebody, this is just

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going to get worse and worse. I think we will leave it there, thank

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you very much. The danger is that power will

:20:01.:20:05.

spread. This could grow in power. It is just under 100 days until the

:20:06.:20:10.

referendum on Scottish independence. So, for once,

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it'll be a long hot-summer But the campaign isn't

:20:14.:20:15.

just getting heated. In places it's also

:20:16.:20:20.

down-right nasty. When Scotland's best-selling author

:20:21.:20:22.

announced she was giving the unionist cause a million pounds

:20:23.:20:24.

this week, she received Independence supporters online,

:20:25.:20:26.

so-called cybernats, called JK Rowling a traitor

:20:27.:20:34.

and much worse, using a variety of For its part, the Better Together

:20:35.:20:37.

campaign has been accused Even Gordon Brown seems to think so,

:20:38.:20:40.

and this week he criticised Conservative ministers

:20:41.:20:44.

for relying on "threats With the Edinburgh Festival

:20:45.:20:46.

approaching, reports suggest even comedians are now reluctant to

:20:47.:20:51.

engage in the subject because I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from

:20:52.:20:53.

Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie They're both in our Glasgow studio,

:20:54.:21:00.

and they're going head to head. Blair Jenkins, let me come to you

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first. Why have you and the Better Together campaign and Alex Salmond

:21:21.:21:24.

not done more to slap down the cyber nationalists who are poisoning the

:21:25.:21:28.

debate? Good morning. I think both sides tried to stop the tiny number

:21:29.:21:34.

of people on both sides who are incapable of controlling

:21:35.:21:38.

themselves. We should not get this out of proportion. We are having a

:21:39.:21:42.

fantastic, decent and democratic debate. The people who probably

:21:43.:21:46.

total no more than 100 on both sides who post offensive material or not

:21:47.:21:50.

to be allowed to deflect from that fact. Of course there are nasty

:21:51.:21:55.

people on the Better Together side as well, but are you saying there

:21:56.:21:59.

are as many of those as the cyber nationalists? I have not done the

:22:00.:22:05.

Kent. Lots of people are certainly posting nasty in defensive things to

:22:06.:22:10.

people in the yes campaigners well. I imagine that people do what I do,

:22:11.:22:15.

and block them. You stop them from sending anything further. There is a

:22:16.:22:22.

democratic and in gauging progress going on throughout Scotland. It is

:22:23.:22:26.

characterised by good humour and good debate. We should not get out

:22:27.:22:29.

of proportion and the activities of the number of people. I want to get

:22:30.:22:36.

to Jackie Baillie. The debate is actually pretty good-humoured and

:22:37.:22:38.

you should be doing more about the nasties on your side as well? I

:22:39.:22:43.

think we have reached a new low this week. Despite many people engaging

:22:44.:22:48.

in the politics of the decision and the debate about that, whether we

:22:49.:22:54.

want to retain the best of both worlds are separate from the United

:22:55.:22:58.

Kingdom, what we have seen is the most abusive and vitriolic attack,

:22:59.:23:05.

particularly on women, JK Rowling and a Labour supporter who dared to

:23:06.:23:10.

support the no campaign. When you look at the number of people on

:23:11.:23:15.

social media, there are more from the yes campaign than the no site.

:23:16.:23:20.

We should all be condemning attacks, from whatever quarter they come

:23:21.:23:28.

This seemed to be connected to the office of the First Minister. What

:23:29.:23:32.

is the evidence for that? There was an e-mail from one of the... I

:23:33.:23:37.

understand about that, but it did not use vile words. It did not, but

:23:38.:23:46.

it repeated the same mistake as on the website. We should be clear that

:23:47.:23:51.

we need to condemn these attacks, but it is not just the water works,

:23:52.:23:56.

it is taking action. There was an IpsosMORI poll this week which was

:23:57.:24:01.

varying testing. It showed the population as a whole, farmer people

:24:02.:24:05.

think that Yes Scotland is running an effective campaign as against

:24:06.:24:10.

Better Together. It is a undecided voters think this by a majority of

:24:11.:24:19.

four 21. Some people are worried about of the campaign. JK Rowling,

:24:20.:24:23.

Scotland's most successful author of all time. She gives ?1 million to

:24:24.:24:29.

the Better Together campaign. She then faces some of the most

:24:30.:24:33.

incredible abuse. I know what it is like because I have had some myself.

:24:34.:24:41.

Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some of the words, it is Sunday morning.

:24:42.:24:46.

Why does Scottish Nationalists culture have such a revolting

:24:47.:24:50.

fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to our views and it is unacceptable if

:24:51.:24:54.

people say offensive things about her or anyone else who voices and

:24:55.:24:59.

opinion in this debate. Who are obese people? When you look at the

:25:00.:25:03.

accounts of some of the people who were posting these things about JK

:25:04.:25:07.

Rowling, they were using the same sort of language about film stars

:25:08.:25:11.

and football stars. This was just part of their language on Twitter.

:25:12.:25:18.

How often has Alex Salmond condemned the cyber nationalists? Very often.

:25:19.:25:26.

Everyone in the campaign hands. By common consent, Yes Scotland is

:25:27.:25:29.

running a thoroughly positive campaign, much more positive than

:25:30.:25:35.

Better Together. Jackie Baillie it hardly helps matters when Alistair

:25:36.:25:40.

Darling, who runs your campaign compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il

:25:41.:25:43.

and North Korea. That hardly elevates the debate? I think we need

:25:44.:25:49.

to elevate the debate. There are less than a hundred days to go. It

:25:50.:25:56.

is a massive decision. We need to elevate the debate beyond attacks. I

:25:57.:26:02.

think there is much more that Yes Scotland and the SNP can do. You

:26:03.:26:08.

have made that point. Why are you running a campaign based on fear?

:26:09.:26:14.

The codename of your campaign is even project fear. It is threats.

:26:15.:26:21.

You cannot have the pound, there will be no shipbuilding. You will be

:26:22.:26:25.

flooded by immigrants. Why are you so negative? I am not negative at

:26:26.:26:31.

all and neither is the campaign The campaign has asked questions and I

:26:32.:26:35.

think it is legitimate to ask questions of the people proposing

:26:36.:26:39.

such a fundamental change. People care about the economy, their jobs,

:26:40.:26:44.

their families. What would happen to them if they leave the rest of the

:26:45.:26:50.

United Kingdom. I think it is legitimate to ask questions. I

:26:51.:26:52.

refuse to be asked of scaremongering. People deserve

:26:53.:27:00.

answers. The yes campaign is equally guilty of some of the most

:27:01.:27:07.

outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you are both scaremongering. Blair

:27:08.:27:13.

Jenkins, the First Minister said of the cyber nationalists, that they

:27:14.:27:17.

are just Daft folk, as if they were mischievous little children. It is

:27:18.:27:23.

worse than that. When you look at what they say, they are twisted

:27:24.:27:29.

perhaps even evil minds. I would not disagree with his comments, but they

:27:30.:27:33.

are directed at just a small number of people. The story of this

:27:34.:27:38.

campaign is not the story of what people are saying on Twitter. Around

:27:39.:27:43.

Scotland, lots of people are getting engaged in debate to have been tuned

:27:44.:27:49.

out of the political process. Today, we have 47% support for the yes

:27:50.:27:53.

campaign. The movement in the campaign is towards yes. People know

:27:54.:27:58.

we have a better campaign, a vision for Scotland. The latest poll of

:27:59.:28:05.

polls does not show that. Both sides, you always take the opinion

:28:06.:28:09.

polls that show you in the best light. All politicians do that.

:28:10.:28:14.

Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not just negative, it is patronising.

:28:15.:28:20.

You make dubious claims that Scots would be ?1400 better off by staying

:28:21.:28:26.

in the union, and then you say that the kids use the money to scoff 280

:28:27.:28:33.

hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival. The fate of the nation is in your

:28:34.:28:36.

hands and that is the best you can do? I think you will find that the

:28:37.:28:42.

campaign is something that we are taking the message to people. Then

:28:43.:28:48.

why are you talking about hotdogs? I do not. The campaign did. We are

:28:49.:28:56.

taking a positive message to people across Scotland about the benefits

:28:57.:28:59.

of the United Kingdom. We believe we are stronger and more secure and

:29:00.:29:04.

more stable, being part of that family of nations that is the United

:29:05.:29:08.

Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things

:29:09.:29:13.

like education and transport. I understand that. I am not doing the

:29:14.:29:19.

issues today, I am talking about the tone of the campaign. I have one

:29:20.:29:24.

very important question. Who would you supporting last night in the

:29:25.:29:30.

England-Italy match? I was not watching the game. I would be

:29:31.:29:35.

delighted to see England do well in this tournament. I have Argentina in

:29:36.:29:39.

the office sweepstake. I have to keep some attention on them, but I

:29:40.:29:43.

would be delighted to seeing Clint do well. That is because you think

:29:44.:29:49.

it will help your campaign. It will annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I

:29:50.:29:55.

was supporting England. I was also supporting Portugal.

:29:56.:30:01.

Now most of you probably missed last night's football match

:30:02.:30:04.

between England and Italy because you wanted to get an early night and

:30:05.:30:07.

England lost despite a plucky effort, I'm told.

:30:08.:30:11.

But even Westminster is in the grip of World Cup fever

:30:12.:30:14.

and with speculation about the fitness of each political

:30:15.:30:16.

party's team we sent Adam out to tackle some of the big players.

:30:17.:30:23.

Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:30:24.:30:25.

This year everybody seems to have gone a bit mad Belize, football

:30:26.:30:38.

stickers. Let's see who I will get. Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for

:30:39.:30:45.

these. George Osborne? That is because we leapt on the bandwagon

:30:46.:30:47.

and made Alan political stickers. They're hotter than a Brazilian

:30:48.:30:50.

barbecue. And at Westminster they're

:30:51.:30:52.

turning into collector?s items. Sunday politics political stickers.

:30:53.:31:01.

We have one of you, Norman. Would you like it? Do you want to start

:31:02.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a packet?

:31:07.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I'm afraid

:31:07.:31:14.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I've got

:31:15.:31:17.

Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and two of the Prime Minister. -- next

:31:18.:31:25.

to Theresa. I am sure Michael has Theresa in her stick around, and

:31:26.:31:26.

vice versa. These Tory ones are proving very

:31:27.:31:28.

popular since she fell out with him out how

:31:29.:31:30.

to handle extremism in schools. And there's been open speculation

:31:31.:31:33.

about him taking on him in Then there are rumours of a

:31:34.:31:36.

reshuffle of the whole Tory album. Do you think there will be any

:31:37.:31:47.

swapping in the Tory leadership soon? Who knows? David Cameron has

:31:48.:31:56.

also got to replace the EU commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is

:31:57.:31:57.

standing down. Does he go with the favourite

:31:58.:31:58.

the former health secretary Or the grassroots choice,

:31:59.:32:01.

Martin Callanan, the Tories old Or does he rehabilitate

:32:02.:32:04.

Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate? Do you fancy being European

:32:05.:32:21.

Commissioner? I would rather be spending the money on the world s

:32:22.:32:25.

poor and spending it well. Glad to hear it. Happy collecting.

:32:26.:32:27.

Right, there must be some Labour stickers out there.

:32:28.:32:30.

You don't want to swap Ed Balls any of the others? Can't I keep them

:32:31.:32:38.

all? This is almost the perfect team.

:32:39.:32:39.

There have been grumblings about the fitness of the Shadow

:32:40.:32:42.

And Ed Miliband's got a kicking in Liverpool after posing

:32:43.:32:46.

I'm told grown men are meeting up in pubs for sticker swaps -

:32:47.:32:57.

With Danny Finkelstein - Tory peer and Times columnist,

:32:58.:33:02.

He would be the card I would not want to trade. Do people want to

:33:03.:33:14.

trade him in? I don't think anybody wants to trade him in at the moment.

:33:15.:33:17.

He is the best person to lead the Labour party and will lead us into

:33:18.:33:21.

the next election. There's been a lot about Michael Gove, and he's

:33:22.:33:25.

very combative. That's been a huge strength as an education Secretary,

:33:26.:33:27.

despite the fact it's brought in trouble. I would think the prime

:33:28.:33:31.

minister would tell him not to get himself into peripheral battles at

:33:32.:33:35.

the moment but stick to what has been successful. I haven't got Nick

:33:36.:33:41.

Clegg, but I got me. Controversy amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I

:33:42.:33:47.

need to give away me in return for Nick Clegg. That would be far

:33:48.:33:48.

better. There you are. Some local parties are holding

:33:49.:33:52.

meetings about his leadership, but at one in Cambridge this week

:33:53.:33:55.

they voted to stick with him. You have got a Euro Commissioner.

:33:56.:34:07.

Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do

:34:08.:34:11.

that? What is the significance of that? Very significant. Happy

:34:12.:34:14.

collecting. These beauties are popping up

:34:15.:34:17.

everywhere, but sadly they won't Adam is still doing the samba around

:34:18.:34:20.

Westminster as I speak. I'm joined

:34:21.:34:30.

by three journalists who've been furiously swapping stickers

:34:31.:34:32.

throughout the show, they certainly weren't allowed to stay up to watch

:34:33.:34:34.

the football, it's Nick Watt, We will talk about Labour after the

:34:35.:34:44.

break, and I want to concentrate on the Tories, but the moment, Nick,

:34:45.:34:46.

senior Tories are saying privately that they might win next May. They

:34:47.:34:56.

are beginning to dream the dream. So why are they doing all this

:34:57.:35:01.

jockeying? I think the jockeying for the leadership is about a year old.

:35:02.:35:07.

What stoped it up was when Theresa gave a speech to the conference and

:35:08.:35:13.

people said she was doing it just in case, when things were not looking

:35:14.:35:16.

too good. She is not on manoeuvres. I think it was a policy row that

:35:17.:35:21.

drove the differences with Michael Gove. But Michael Gove is on

:35:22.:35:25.

manoeuvres, and he is trying to protect George Osborne from, he

:35:26.:35:28.

believes, a serious threat from Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa.

:35:29.:35:34.

It is quite self-indulgent when you are a couple of points behind, the

:35:35.:35:38.

economy is going your way, to be involved in this sort of stuff.

:35:39.:35:48.

Extraordinary. It shows the toxic disease that gnaws at the entrails

:35:49.:35:54.

of the Tory party, and Cameron is their great asset. He is more

:35:55.:35:56.

popular than the party, he bridges the gap is, and he has an

:35:57.:36:01.

extraordinary dissemble and some pretending to be this moderate while

:36:02.:36:05.

never the lens -- nevertheless leading the most far right wing

:36:06.:36:08.

government we have had since the war, and that has been a brilliant

:36:09.:36:12.

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

:36:13.:36:14.

political Charente. piece of political Charente and they

:36:15.:36:17.

would be crazy to get rid of it -- charades. Does this rumble on? I

:36:18.:36:22.

have an unfashionable view as there aren't half as many leadership plots

:36:23.:36:26.

taking place in Westminster as we assume, and the willingness to read

:36:27.:36:30.

strategic calculation into anything that takes place comes from people

:36:31.:36:34.

watching I Claudius or house of cards. That hasn't been off -- on

:36:35.:36:40.

for years. I needed a reference from your time. I needed something. Maybe

:36:41.:36:47.

brief encounter? It's a stylised view of how politics works, and so

:36:48.:36:51.

much more in life is about randomness and mistakes. Boris

:36:52.:36:57.

Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove as George Osborne's man on earth,

:36:58.:37:03.

they are positioning themselves -- Janan wrote an eloquent comment this

:37:04.:37:06.

week about this, but there are certain realities that. Michael Gove

:37:07.:37:12.

had that famous dinner with Rupert Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he

:37:13.:37:15.

said that you must not make Boris Johnson leader of the Conservative

:37:16.:37:20.

party, George Osborne is my man Theresa May set out her credo two

:37:21.:37:24.

years ago and people on her team were saying that she was doing it

:37:25.:37:28.

just in case. People are out there and are thinking of the future, but

:37:29.:37:32.

I do think Janan is right. In the village, in the thick of it mindset,

:37:33.:37:36.

you can get a bit carried away and you can be a bit in the famous. That

:37:37.:37:45.

is before your era. He died. What did he mean by it. You can get a bit

:37:46.:37:52.

carried away by it. I will have words with you during the break

:37:53.:37:55.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:56.:37:57.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:58.:38:00.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking about Ed Miliband's

:38:01.:38:11.

In the East Midlands, is immigration boosting our economy

:38:12.:38:13.

MPs and councils hold a special meeting.

:38:14.:38:16.

I would say it's good for Ldicester, and good for the UK.

:38:17.:38:22.

It's politically incorrect but I do feel we've been sw`mped,

:38:23.:38:27.

Who cares for the children who care for their families?

:38:28.:38:35.

My friends don't have to care for their siblings or their mum

:38:36.:38:40.

They just go out and play on the park and do what thex want

:38:41.:38:46.

Hello, I'm Marie Ashby and my guests today, Heather

:38:47.:38:52.

Wheeler, the Conservative MP for South Derbyshire and Liz Kendall,

:38:53.:38:58.

Labour's MP for Leicester Wdst. So what price the recession?

:38:59.:39:01.

Well, the Labour leader Ed Liliband thinks he knows how much it's cost

:39:02.:39:04.

us here in the East Midlands. He was addressing the

:39:05.:39:07.

Annual Conference of the GMB trade union at the Nottingham Arena.

:39:08.:39:12.

And, in a speech dominated by the cost of living, he put a figure on

:39:13.:39:16.

how much Labour claims we'vd lost in lower earnings and higher prices.

:39:17.:39:20.

People are on average according to the figures published yesterday two

:39:21.:39:22.

and a half thousand pounds ` year worse off than they were in 201 .

:39:23.:39:28.

That means wages are behind prices and we're still seeing

:39:29.:39:30.

We've got a tackle that because while the government says

:39:31.:39:35.

the economy is fixed, the truth is people are getting worse off

:39:36.:39:38.

and that's why we need to r`ise the minimum wage, deal with insdcurity,

:39:39.:39:42.

zero hours contracts, build houses again

:39:43.:39:57.

Do you accept those figures? Absolutely not. If you look at

:39:58.:40:05.

things we've introduced by having zero council tax increases when it

:40:06.:40:08.

under Conservative council, and then as soon as Labour get enabldd the

:40:09.:40:13.

council tax up. Things like the fuel duty escalator also be rid of it and

:40:14.:40:18.

taking 2p off a pint of beer. We have really brought in meastres

:40:19.:40:22.

which curb excessive price hncreases through mechanisms that the

:40:23.:40:26.

government are in control of soy don't accept that at all. The

:40:27.:40:30.

government will say their policies are working for the we have been

:40:31.:40:34.

through the most hideous recession. I think people are struggling to

:40:35.:40:36.

make ends meet. Many people in this around here where wages are low The

:40:37.:41:30.

difficulty is, I don't want to see a low`wage

:41:31.:42:28.

The report also said there was evidence that overall immigration

:42:29.:42:30.

had economic benefits for the region, but was putting

:42:31.:42:33.

a strain on many services which were not getting the dxtra

:42:34.:42:38.

Well, we mentioned that Leicester has the most people in the Dast

:42:39.:42:43.

Do you think immigration is a good or bad thing?

:42:44.:42:53.

Not only is it taking jobs from people, it's taking all

:42:54.:43:01.

People that live here and born here, generations, can't get housds, can't

:43:02.:43:05.

Then the people can actuallx live together cohesively

:43:06.:43:15.

Excuse me, sir, sorry to interrupt you.

:43:16.:43:20.

Do you think immigration is a good or bad thing?

:43:21.:43:25.

I think we should all learn to live in peace, one love.

:43:26.:43:31.

It's been a very good thing for Leicester.

:43:32.:43:42.

Particularly in the last ten or so years.

:43:43.:43:45.

It's brought a lot of vibrancy to the city.

:43:46.:43:49.

It's politically incorrect but I do feel we've been sw`mped,

:43:50.:43:53.

What would you say if I said a third of the people in Lehcester

:43:54.:43:58.

I would say it's good for Ldicester, and good for the UK.

:43:59.:44:02.

Some interesting and varied views there.

:44:03.:44:18.

And we're joined by Stuart Xoung, the Executive Director of

:44:19.:44:20.

??PREVSUB ??NEWSUB why were cancelled so keen to have this

:44:21.:44:34.

meeting with MPs? This is an important issue. Given the

:44:35.:44:39.

importance of the issue, cotncil leaders are very keen to properly

:44:40.:44:42.

understand the issue of migration. Its effects on the region and its

:44:43.:44:45.

effects on the delivery of public services. It is the service of the

:44:46.:44:50.

councils are worried about because clearly they've had funding cut and

:44:51.:44:55.

still have to these services? It is the delivery of public servhces most

:44:56.:45:01.

focused on. Immigration is `n issue national government is lookhng at

:45:02.:45:04.

but in terms of local government, doing practical solutions, to the

:45:05.:45:10.

challenges I have in supporting local committees, and making sure

:45:11.:45:12.

their public services are both effectively paid for and delivered.

:45:13.:45:19.

You have figures that show has been an the number of supported `sylum

:45:20.:45:23.

seekers in the East Midlands, up 76% in one year. That will put pressure

:45:24.:45:27.

on in other areas, too, too, isn't it? We need to get a context in

:45:28.:45:33.

these figures. If 76% up from last year, in East Midlands, 2000

:45:34.:45:37.

supported asylum seekers, btt it's not just about the numbers of about

:45:38.:45:42.

a dispersal. What councils `re saying is, if you are going to have

:45:43.:45:47.

asylum seekers in communitids, what we need to do is effectivelx plan

:45:48.:45:53.

for that and to make sure that the Home Office and the private

:45:54.:45:55.

contractors work with counchls in terms of determining where `nd how

:45:56.:46:01.

they are. It's a massive subject and one which is very tricky for you as

:46:02.:46:07.

politicians to deal with. No one wants to be politically incorrect on

:46:08.:46:09.

this but you can't ignore this issue. It's massive, isn't ht? This

:46:10.:46:16.

is a fallacy any politician is ignoring immigration. You s`w in

:46:17.:46:23.

less a wide range of views. I share a lot of concerns about immhgration.

:46:24.:46:28.

But I also see some real benefits in the diversity in Leicester `nd new

:46:29.:46:33.

businesses and trade brings to many people and many people are worried

:46:34.:46:37.

about the impact on jobs, the impact on public services and what is

:46:38.:46:40.

happening in their communithes. I think it is a fallacy to sax don't

:46:41.:46:43.

want to talk about it. I talk about it all the time on the doorstep and

:46:44.:46:48.

in Parliament. Immigration, good or bad in your view? I think it's got

:46:49.:46:54.

many downsides and I think that the plans we have got to stop

:46:55.:46:59.

immigration where we can, is absolutely the right thing. It isn't

:47:00.:47:07.

just... What are the downsides? Changing communities vastly. We

:47:08.:47:10.

don't recognise certain parts of our communities any more. Because you

:47:11.:47:16.

will go into the post officd and you will be in a queue of 15 people and

:47:17.:47:19.

there will be many of them who are dealing with money transfers back to

:47:20.:47:23.

their own countries. Of course, that's fantastic, but if thd money

:47:24.:47:26.

is going back to their country, it's not staying in our economy. If they

:47:27.:47:32.

are earning in paying their taxes, they will be. It's important people

:47:33.:47:36.

come here to work and pay their taxes. Is there something you're

:47:37.:47:41.

hearing from the council, their concerns? There is a clear need for

:47:42.:47:45.

a debate in terms of migrathon, what is it, economic migration, supported

:47:46.:47:50.

asylum seekers, and the effdct of it on public services. It's not

:47:51.:47:53.

understand the effect but stggesting how we can improve the situ`tion.

:47:54.:47:58.

For the work we've done, we have identified four issues in of lack of

:47:59.:48:01.

language provision, dispers`l of asylum seekers, the cost of moving

:48:02.:48:07.

from central to local government. They are three key issues. The fact

:48:08.:48:12.

you have gone to politicians like Heather,

:48:13.:48:47.

now we have put in particul`r measures to bring the points system

:48:48.:48:50.

Australia has. Every body understands the immigration in

:48:51.:48:53.

Australia thinks it's fair. That's what people want in this cotntry. I

:48:54.:48:59.

think we need tough border controls to make sure people don't come here

:49:00.:49:02.

illegally. If you come to this country, it should be to cut work

:49:03.:49:08.

and not claim benefits. You should speak the language. What applies in

:49:09.:49:11.

this country should apply to British people go abroad, too. What's

:49:12.:49:15.

important is, the way that we give people confidence that they are

:49:16.:49:19.

going to get jobs, get homes, is to give them the skills they nded and

:49:20.:49:23.

have good quality jobs in this country, not by suggesting xou will

:49:24.:49:27.

be OK so long as we shut evdrybody out. What is next to them? What s

:49:28.:49:34.

the next step? The report whll be available in mid July so thd next

:49:35.:49:37.

step is to continue to work with the councils, voluntary community

:49:38.:49:43.

sector, the business sector, we are keen to highlight the econolic

:49:44.:49:46.

benefits, for example, an estimation that there is a 10% contribttion to

:49:47.:49:53.

the output to the region market was economy. Some areas do less well. We

:49:54.:49:58.

want to identify those challenges. It's good to talk about it but

:49:59.:50:02.

actions is needed as well. The action is around inadequate language

:50:03.:50:10.

provision. What areas do less well? In Northamptonshire for exalple

:50:11.:50:15.

there's a big pressure on school places and the council is rdsponding

:50:16.:50:19.

in terms of expanding the ntmber of schools, to increase the nulber of

:50:20.:50:23.

places. In Boston, there's been a huge increase. We have to m`ke sure

:50:24.:50:28.

they focus on housing and elployment to support the population. Thank you

:50:29.:50:31.

so much for joining us todax. The number of children caring

:50:32.:50:34.

for their parents or their brothers and sisters hs rising

:50:35.:50:36.

in the East Midlands. It's up by 14%

:50:37.:50:38.

in the last ten years. The government has brought

:50:39.:50:40.

in new guidelines to force councils to offer more help to young people

:50:41.:50:43.

but critics say the continuhng cuts facing local authorities me`n it

:50:44.:50:46.

will stay a low priority. Patcee Francis has been to

:50:47.:50:48.

Derby to meet two children It's a rare break for two young

:50:49.:50:51.

carers with heavy responsibhlities. Alannah and Malika are school

:50:52.:51:02.

children who have to mix sttdies I care for my twin brothers,

:51:03.:51:05.

Liam and Ryan, who have authsm No, my mum helps,

:51:06.:51:15.

but sometimes she's a bit poorly because she dodsn't get

:51:16.:51:23.

a lot of rest and sleep and things. So I need to help her as well

:51:24.:51:30.

as my brothers. Malika lives alone with her mother

:51:31.:51:35.

who suffers from chronic pahn An elder sister comes home to help,

:51:36.:51:38.

but much I'll get up in the morning `round

:51:39.:51:43.

6.30`7.00, and I'll make brdakfast And if there is laundry,

:51:44.:51:54.

I'll put it in and wash Derby City Council is working

:51:55.:52:06.

with 66 young carers. Nottingham has 200 and in Ldicester,

:52:07.:52:10.

the figure is 249. We are seeing an increase

:52:11.:52:15.

in mental health issues. We are also seeing an incre`se in

:52:16.:52:21.

young carers, or young people, that Also for some children I thhnk

:52:22.:52:24.

the difficulties around maybe caring for parents where there are

:52:25.:52:34.

life`limiting illnesses. Do you think your life is vdry

:52:35.:52:37.

different to your friends? Yes, because

:52:38.:52:41.

my friends don't have to care And they can just go out and play

:52:42.:52:43.

on the park. And do what they want,

:52:44.:52:53.

when I have to think twice when I They have more freedom to do stuff

:52:54.:52:56.

they want, do more activitids. And, like,

:52:57.:53:05.

if they ask you for a sleepover you say no because you've got to

:53:06.:53:07.

care for someone in the house. Sometimes they don't

:53:08.:53:10.

understand what you mean. More and more children are taking

:53:11.:53:14.

on the burden of looking New guidelines mean councils have

:53:15.:53:16.

to consider their needs, but many fear cuts in local authoritx

:53:17.:53:22.

funding means that won't happen And thousands of children

:53:23.:53:24.

in the region could miss out I like school, because at school,

:53:25.:53:27.

you feel like a child because you don't have a lot

:53:28.:53:39.

of responsibilities that ard huge. But when you come home,

:53:40.:53:42.

you really feel different. You feel almost like an adult

:53:43.:53:46.

and it's hard. And with us to talk

:53:47.:53:50.

about this is Lily Caprani, Director of Strategy and Policy

:53:51.:53:57.

from the Children's Society. Isn't this the point that pdople

:53:58.:54:08.

like we just saw there are lissing out on their childhood?

:54:09.:54:13.

Unfortunately, in some cases, that's true and The Children's Sochety

:54:14.:54:16.

works with thousands of young carers and for most of them they would say

:54:17.:54:20.

they are very proud of the brilliant job they do and they do it because

:54:21.:54:24.

they love the person they are looking after. Where it gets

:54:25.:54:27.

concerning is where that burden and responsibility becomes so great it

:54:28.:54:31.

starts to take its toll on their education, their health, and it can

:54:32.:54:35.

have devastating on that. Wd have just heard it can be isolathng. You

:54:36.:54:40.

could miss out on friendships. And young carers say to us they don t

:54:41.:54:43.

want to stop caring but the do want more support and a break from time

:54:44.:54:46.

to time and for it to not affect their education. Why the nulbers of

:54:47.:54:51.

young carers on the rise thd East Midlands? When we looked at the

:54:52.:54:57.

census figures, nationally, there's about 166,000 children who `re

:54:58.:55:01.

officially young carers and that's just officially so in all

:55:02.:55:05.

likelihood, if the tip of the iceberg. Over 8000 in the E`st

:55:06.:55:10.

Midlands. They are the ones have been identified. It's awkward to

:55:11.:55:14.

talk about, so we expect thd numbers to be greater. I have gone tp. Quite

:55:15.:55:18.

worryingly, in the younger `ge group in particular, five`year`olds to

:55:19.:55:22.

nine`year`olds, it's gone up steeply. Liz Campbell, the

:55:23.:55:28.

government has issued new gtidelines to make this a priority. Thhs got to

:55:29.:55:31.

be a step forward, surely, the government has done this crhtter

:55:32.:55:35.

mucked I want to come back to the point about identifying young

:55:36.:55:41.

carers. I met a young familx, the father had MS. They helped out and

:55:42.:55:46.

would not think of themselvds as caring. They were just getthng on

:55:47.:55:49.

with it basically, so I think the very first step is got to bd to

:55:50.:55:56.

identify young carers. We ptshed for a duty on schools, colleges and

:55:57.:56:00.

universities to have a duty to identify young carers when the Care

:56:01.:56:04.

Bill was going through. Unfortunately, the government didn't

:56:05.:56:08.

accept that. There has been a step forward in the way assessments

:56:09.:56:13.

should work. Why isn't enough being done here to help these young

:56:14.:56:16.

people? Clearly they need more support. Indeed, and you do on a

:56:17.:56:24.

case`by`case basis, constittency by Council basis and that's ex`ctly

:56:25.:56:28.

what we did in South Derbyshire I got hold of head teachers so they

:56:29.:56:32.

identify these children and also through the GPs, and we havd part of

:56:33.:56:37.

our big society in South Derbyshire, huge church groups look aftdr the

:56:38.:56:43.

carers children, give them respite. There's a sense he also these young

:56:44.:56:47.

people are basically picking up the slack because councils don't have

:56:48.:56:52.

the money. No, no, I won't `ccept that at all. For starters, because

:56:53.:56:56.

of the Care Bill, and what Jeremy Hunt has been doing, there's 2.

:56:57.:57:00.

billion more money coming into this area. It's not you. It's public

:57:01.:57:12.

health areas. It's not your money, Heather. It's definitely not. It's

:57:13.:57:16.

money from the NHS. What I want people to do is roll their sleeves

:57:17.:57:23.

up, go to their GPs in schools and ask how to deal with this bdcause

:57:24.:57:27.

the great respite care which goes on with charities in South Derbyshire

:57:28.:57:31.

is hugely welcome. It's a step in the right direction and I w`nt to

:57:32.:57:34.

see that working all across the country. Labour have said they would

:57:35.:57:42.

repeal the health and social bill. We want to get rid of the

:57:43.:57:45.

fragmentation the government is caused. The Care Bill, we wdre

:57:46.:57:48.

constructive trying to put ht through. You are talking about two

:57:49.:57:54.

different bits of legislation. There's more we could do. That's

:57:55.:57:57.

what we could do. That's wh`t we're pressing for. It arouses a lot of

:57:58.:58:04.

passion in the studio today. Our politicians taking this serhously

:58:05.:58:06.

enough because there's been a for decades? The care act as a welcome

:58:07.:58:12.

step forward and this cross`party consensus that something nedds to

:58:13.:58:16.

improve the young carers and it transcends politics in many ways. We

:58:17.:58:19.

don't want to see children suffering because of the great work they do

:58:20.:58:23.

look and after their familids. It's a long overdue change and it's not

:58:24.:58:27.

yet enforced. If it works, ht will mean when an adult who is dhsabled

:58:28.:58:31.

get assessed and it's worked out whether or not they get card, they

:58:32.:58:34.

have to look at the whole f`mily and that didn't used to happen.

:58:35.:58:40.

Sometimes, young people work... Is the money there? Can you ring fence

:58:41.:58:45.

that money? It is for the ptblic health budget is no huge and I

:58:46.:58:48.

believe actually councils are much better at spending it because they

:58:49.:58:52.

are so much closer to the pdople. You are disagreeing? I think that

:58:53.:58:59.

there's been a lot of talk `bout integrating health and care services

:59:00.:59:06.

and it using budgets togethdr, but anybody who claims that what

:59:07.:59:10.

happened at a social care btdget isn't having a big impact on

:59:11.:59:15.

families and carers and adults with disabilities in children with needs,

:59:16.:59:19.

is living in cloud cuckoo l`nd. What are the consequences if nothing is

:59:20.:59:25.

done? It must improve. If young carers continue to take on too much

:59:26.:59:30.

of a burden of care, 30 hours a week, their education are stffering

:59:31.:59:34.

and we know they can fall bdhind in their GCSEs by nine grades. They end

:59:35.:59:38.

up not getting into employmdnt for soft thank you for coming from

:59:39.:59:40.

London to talk to us. Time for a round`up of some

:59:41.:59:42.

of the other political storhes Here's our Political Editor,

:59:43.:59:45.

John Hess, with 60 seconds. Problems for Leicestershire

:59:46.:59:50.

and Rutland's Police Commissioner His call for an enquiry into a new

:59:51.:59:52.

housing development at Blabx was rejected by the High Court `nd now

:59:53.:59:57.

the panel which oversees his actions has said it regrets the dam`ge

:59:58.:00:01.

his move has done to relationships East Midlands UKIP MEP Roger Helmer

:00:02.:00:05.

may have lost out on a Westlinster seat after the Newark by`eldction,

:00:06.:00:12.

but he is ruling the roost He is now the leader of

:00:13.:00:15.

UKIP's Parliamentary group. It's a role that I hadn't

:00:16.:00:20.

anticipated until just recently when it was mentioned to me, but

:00:21.:00:22.

it's a very exciting role bdcause, as I say, we now have this very

:00:23.:00:26.

large delegation of 24 MEPs, and we We want to be as effective

:00:27.:00:30.

as we can be. And the region's newest

:00:31.:00:36.

MP Robert Jenrick has taken his seat in parliament much to

:00:37.:00:38.

the delight and relief of the Prime Minister who was obviously

:00:39.:00:41.

more than happy to give New`rk's MP And that's the Sunday Polithcs

:00:42.:00:44.

in the East Midlands. Thanks to our guests Heather Wheeler

:00:45.:00:56.

and Liz Kendall now back to Andrew There are big changes afoot

:00:57.:00:59.

in the EU following last month's European elections,

:01:00.:01:15.

not least who'll get the top job But

:01:16.:01:17.

behind the scenes the parties have also been jockeying for position as

:01:18.:01:21.

they try to form the big groups that And UKIP seems to have been

:01:22.:01:24.

struggling to keep its influence Here's Adam to explain

:01:25.:01:28.

how it all works. If you want your party to be a big

:01:29.:01:41.

cheese in the European Parliament, you need to form a political group.

:01:42.:01:45.

By doing this, the party gets more money, more positions on committees

:01:46.:01:49.

and even more speaking rights in the chamber. But the parliament's rules

:01:50.:01:56.

are strict. And to form a group you need a group of 25 MPs from at least

:01:57.:02:00.

seven different countries. For UKIP, the number of MEPs will not be a

:02:01.:02:04.

problem because they already have 24 of their own, but the different

:02:05.:02:09.

nationalities are more of a challenge. Nigel Farage was not

:02:10.:02:13.

helped by the Tories stealing - stealing his former Danish and

:02:14.:02:17.

Finnish allies, and the pen pinching his Italian charms. Nigel needs a

:02:18.:02:26.

new charm and fast. He has already signed up Lithuania's order and

:02:27.:02:29.

justice, a free citizen from Prague, and the Dutchman from the reformed

:02:30.:02:35.

political party. The big signing was the 17 members of the Italian Beppe

:02:36.:02:43.

Griego's 5-star movement, but it leaves UKIP short of two more

:02:44.:02:46.

international powers, and with the clock ticking, it looks like his

:02:47.:02:50.

hopes resting on the Swedish Democrats and the Polish new right

:02:51.:02:53.

Congress. They both make their decisions next week.

:02:54.:03:00.

What is the latest? UKIP have enough MEPs with their pals, but they need

:03:01.:03:06.

seven countries, as I understand it. They are not there yet. They are

:03:07.:03:11.

wrapped five countries and need another two. UKIP are being quite

:03:12.:03:15.

buoyant and say they will be meeting MEPs from five countries next week

:03:16.:03:19.

and are pretty confident they will get those countries, but as Adam was

:03:20.:03:21.

saying, the exposed himself in public, and if he

:03:22.:05:07.

doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he

:05:08.:05:11.

has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.

:05:12.:05:14.

That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't

:05:15.:05:21.

think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of

:05:22.:05:26.

the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming

:05:27.:05:29.

head of the European commission what chance do you have of

:05:30.:05:32.

repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs

:05:33.:05:40.

dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are

:05:41.:05:45.

too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country

:05:46.:05:47.

notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.

:05:48.:05:53.

Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side

:05:54.:05:59.

once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she

:06:00.:06:07.

tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got

:06:08.:06:11.

such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she

:06:12.:06:18.

had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but

:06:19.:06:26.

as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,

:06:27.:06:31.

he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks

:06:32.:06:38.

Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a

:06:39.:06:41.

power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron

:06:42.:06:44.

went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave

:06:45.:06:49.

the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in

:06:50.:06:55.

Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument

:06:56.:07:00.

that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural

:07:01.:07:02.

allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough

:07:03.:07:07.

Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.

:07:08.:07:16.

When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to

:07:17.:07:22.

have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,

:07:23.:07:26.

looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His

:07:27.:07:31.

strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of

:07:32.:07:37.

that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and

:07:38.:07:42.

dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's

:07:43.:07:47.

son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are

:07:48.:07:50.

particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and

:07:51.:07:56.

understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error

:07:57.:08:02.

and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to

:08:03.:08:05.

himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His

:08:06.:08:12.

advisers or himself? In the end himself. Nobody forced him to do it.

:08:13.:08:21.

On this one, he called it wrong It's a sign of the rather the bridal

:08:22.:08:29.

state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in

:08:30.:08:32.

attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is

:08:33.:08:39.

at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.

:08:40.:08:45.

The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The

:08:46.:08:53.

mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying

:08:54.:08:59.

the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking

:09:00.:09:01.

and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the

:09:02.:09:07.

rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the

:09:08.:09:10.

juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.

:09:11.:09:17.

Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he

:09:18.:09:18.

doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he

:09:19.:09:22.

has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg

:09:23.:09:29.

posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread

:09:30.:09:33.

carefully. That was the mistake You get the impression from the picture

:09:34.:09:36.

that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full

:09:37.:09:39.

process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within

:09:40.:09:44.

his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen

:09:45.:09:46.

question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the

:09:47.:09:50.

day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as

:09:51.:09:56.

well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and

:09:57.:10:00.

you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be

:10:01.:10:04.

yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never

:10:05.:10:08.

works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed

:10:09.:10:13.

Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get

:10:14.:10:17.

involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than

:10:18.:10:21.

counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which

:10:22.:10:25.

was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by

:10:26.:10:31.

telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred

:10:32.:10:38.

because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all

:10:39.:10:41.

the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,

:10:42.:10:46.

and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular

:10:47.:10:51.

brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet

:10:52.:10:55.

their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts

:10:56.:11:00.

like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to

:11:01.:11:05.

get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next

:11:06.:11:07.

week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing

:11:08.:11:11.

that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the

:11:12.:11:17.

European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is

:11:18.:11:21.

becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think

:11:22.:11:26.

entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.

:11:27.:11:30.

Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a

:11:31.:11:35.

big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to

:11:36.:11:39.

think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a

:11:40.:11:42.

convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love

:11:43.:11:50.

him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow

:11:51.:11:54.

chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends

:11:55.:11:57.

in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose I

:11:58.:12:02.

don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an

:12:03.:12:04.

admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the

:12:05.:12:07.

preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine

:12:08.:12:11.

months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations

:12:12.:12:16.

between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed

:12:17.:12:20.

Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in

:12:21.:12:23.

between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say

:12:24.:12:29.

that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed

:12:30.:12:32.

him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things

:12:33.:12:37.

obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue

:12:38.:12:43.

Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new

:12:44.:12:48.

Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the

:12:49.:12:51.

attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will

:12:52.:12:56.

get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on

:12:57.:13:01.

business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.

:13:02.:13:04.

On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,

:13:05.:13:09.

we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush

:13:10.:13:10.

you. We are running out of time The Daily Politics will be back

:13:11.:13:12.

every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday

:13:13.:13:16.

when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions

:13:17.:13:19.

secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:20.:13:21.

it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base

:13:22.:13:53.

of medieval England. Charles' ceiling was a piece

:13:54.:13:59.

of breathtaking arrogance. You get a sense of the people

:14:00.:14:05.

who made the palaces. as I unlock the secrets

:14:06.:14:13.

of Britain's great palaces.

:14:14.:14:17.

Andrew Neil and Marie Ashby with the latest political news, interviews and debate. James Rubin, Mark Malloch-Brown and Bayan Rahman discuss the crisis in Iraq. Jackie Baillie from Better Together and Blair Jenkins from Yes Scotland debate the nature of the Scottish independence campaign.


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