21/05/2017 Sunday Politics East Midlands


21/05/2017

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It's Sunday Morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:30.:00:33.

Labour attacks Conservative plans for social care and to means-test

:00:34.:00:36.

So can Jeremy Corbyn eat into the Tory lead

:00:37.:00:39.

Theresa May says her party's manifesto is all about fairness.

:00:40.:00:45.

We'll be speaking to a Conservative cabinet minister about the plans.

:00:46.:00:49.

The polls have always shown healthy leads for the Conservatives.

:00:50.:00:52.

But, now we've seen the manifestos, is Labour narrowing the gap?

:00:53.:00:57.

In the East Midlands, what's in it for us?

:00:58.:01:00.

We'll be looking at what the manifestos mean for our region.

:01:01.:01:02.

And is it time for an ethnic quota in Parliament to give more

:01:03.:01:13.

And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

:01:14.:01:17.

panel in the business: Sam Coates, Isabel Oakeshott

:01:18.:01:18.

and Steve Richards - they'll be tweeting throughout

:01:19.:01:20.

the programme, and you can get involved by using

:01:21.:01:23.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn says pensioners will be up to ?330 a year

:01:24.:01:31.

worse off under plans outlined in the Conservative manifesto.

:01:32.:01:43.

The Work Pensions Secretary Damian Green has said his party will not

:01:44.:01:49.

rethink their plans to fund social care in England. Under the plans in

:01:50.:01:53.

the Conservative manifesto, nobody with assets of less than ?100,000,

:01:54.:02:00.

would have to pay for care. Labour has attacked the proposal, and John

:02:01.:02:04.

McDonnell, Labour's Shadow Chancellor, said this morning that

:02:05.:02:07.

there needs to be more cross-party consensus.

:02:08.:02:11.

That's why we supported Dilnot, but we also supported

:02:12.:02:13.

Because we've got to have something sustainable over generations,

:02:14.:02:16.

so that's why we've said to the Conservative Party,

:02:17.:02:19.

Let's go back to that cross-party approach that actually

:02:20.:02:22.

I just feel we've all been let down by what's come

:02:23.:02:25.

Sam, is Labour beginning to get their argument across? What we had

:02:26.:02:36.

last week was bluntly what felt like not very Lynton Crosby approved

:02:37.:02:40.

Conservative manifesto. What I mean by that is that it looks like there

:02:41.:02:44.

are things that will cause political difficulties for the party over this

:02:45.:02:49.

campaign. I've been talking to MPs and ministers who acknowledge that

:02:50.:02:53.

the social care plan is coming up on the doorstep. It has cut through

:02:54.:02:59.

very quickly, and it is worrying and deterring some voters. Not just

:03:00.:03:03.

pensioners, that people who are looking to inherit in the future.

:03:04.:03:14.

They are all asking how much they could lose that they wouldn't have

:03:15.:03:16.

lost before. A difficult question for the party to answer, given that

:03:17.:03:19.

they don't want to give too much away now. Was this a mistake, or a

:03:20.:03:25.

sign of the Conservatives' confidence? It has the hallmarks of

:03:26.:03:32.

something that has been cobbled together in a very unnaturally short

:03:33.:03:36.

time frame for putting a manifesto together. We have had mixed messages

:03:37.:03:40.

from the Tory MPs who have been out on the airwaves this morning as to

:03:41.:03:44.

whether they will consult on it whether it is just a starting point.

:03:45.:03:49.

That said, there is still three weeks to go, and most of the Tory

:03:50.:03:56.

party this morning feel this is a little light turbulence rather than

:03:57.:03:59.

anything that leaves the destination of victory in doubt. It it flips the

:04:00.:04:03.

normal politics. The Tories are going to make people who have a

:04:04.:04:07.

reasonable amount of assets pay for their social care. What is wrong

:04:08.:04:14.

with that? First, total credit for them for not pretending that all

:04:15.:04:17.

this can be done by magic, which is what normally happens in an

:04:18.:04:21.

election. The party will say, we will review this for the 95th time

:04:22.:04:27.

in the following Parliament, so they have no mandate to do anything and

:04:28.:04:31.

so do not do anything. It is courageous to do it. It is

:04:32.:04:35.

electorally risky, for the reasons that you suggest, that they pass the

:04:36.:04:41.

target their own natural supporter. And there is a sense that this is

:04:42.:04:47.

rushed through, in the frenzy to get it done in time. I think the ending

:04:48.:04:52.

of the pooling of risk and putting the entire burden on in inverted

:04:53.:04:57.

commas the victim, because you cannot insure Fritz, is against the

:04:58.:05:06.

spirit of a lot of the rest of the manifesto, and will give them huge

:05:07.:05:09.

problems if they try to implement it in the next Parliament. Let's have a

:05:10.:05:18.

look at the polls. Nearly five weeks ago, on Tuesday the 18th of April,

:05:19.:05:23.

Theresa May called the election. At that point, this was the median

:05:24.:05:28.

average of the recent polls. The Conservatives had an 18 point lead

:05:29.:05:34.

over Labour on 25%. Ukip and the Liberal Democrats were both on 18%.

:05:35.:05:42.

A draft of Labour's manifesto was leaked to the press. In the

:05:43.:05:47.

intervening weeks, support for the Conservatives and Labour had

:05:48.:05:50.

increased, that it had decreased for the Lib Dems and Ukip. Last Tuesday

:05:51.:05:56.

came the launch of the official Labour manifesto. By that time,

:05:57.:06:01.

Labour support had gone up by another 2%. The Lib Dems and Ukip

:06:02.:06:07.

had slipped back slightly. Later in the week came the manifestos from

:06:08.:06:11.

the Lib Dems and the Conservatives. This morning, for more polls. This

:06:12.:06:16.

is how the parties currently stand on average. Labour are now on 34%,

:06:17.:06:24.

up 4% since the launch of their manifesto. The Conservatives are

:06:25.:06:28.

down two points since last Tuesday. Ukip and the Lib Dems are both

:06:29.:06:35.

unchanged on 8% and 5%. You can find this poll tracker on the BBC

:06:36.:06:40.

website, see how it was calculated, and see the results of national

:06:41.:06:45.

polls over the last two years. So Isabel, is this the Tories' wobbly

:06:46.:06:48.

weekend or the start of the narrowing? This is still an

:06:49.:06:53.

extremely healthy lead for the Tories. At the start of this

:06:54.:07:00.

campaign, most commentators expected to things to happen. First, the Lib

:07:01.:07:05.

Dems would have a significant surge. That hasn't happened. Second, Labour

:07:06.:07:11.

would crash and plummet. Instead they are in the health of the low

:07:12.:07:16.

30s. I wonder if that tells you something about the tribal nature of

:07:17.:07:22.

the Labour vote, and the continuing problems with the Tory brand. I

:07:23.:07:27.

would say that a lot of Tory MPs wouldn't be too unhappy if Labour's

:07:28.:07:32.

result isn't quite as bad as has been anticipated. They don't want

:07:33.:07:38.

Corbyn to go anywhere. If the latest polls were to be the result on June

:07:39.:07:45.

the 8th, Mr Corbyn may not be in a rush to go anywhere. I still think

:07:46.:07:50.

it depends on the number of seats. If there is a landslide win, I

:07:51.:07:55.

think, one way or another, he will not stay. If it is much narrower, he

:07:56.:08:00.

has grounds for arguing he has done better than anticipated. The polls

:08:01.:08:06.

are very interesting. People compare this with 83. In 83, the Tory lead

:08:07.:08:11.

widened consistently throughout the campaign. There was the SDP -

:08:12.:08:24.

Liberal Alliance doing well in the polls. Here, the Lib Dems don't seem

:08:25.:08:26.

to be doing that. So the parallels with 83 don't really stack up. But

:08:27.:08:29.

let's see what happens. Still early days for the a lot of people are

:08:30.:08:32.

saying this is the result of the social care policy. We don't really

:08:33.:08:37.

know that. How do you beat them? In the last week or so, there's been

:08:38.:08:40.

the decision by some to hold their nose and vote Labour, who haven't

:08:41.:08:46.

done so before. Probably the biggest thing in this election is how the

:08:47.:08:50.

Right has reunited behind Theresa May. That figure for Ukip is

:08:51.:08:57.

incredibly small. She has brought those Ukip voters behind her, and

:08:58.:09:03.

that could be the decisive factor in many seats, rather than the Labour

:09:04.:09:07.

share of the boat picking up a bit or down a bit, depending on how

:09:08.:09:12.

turbulent the Tory manifesto makes it. Thank you for that.

:09:13.:09:15.

We've finally got our hands on the manifestos of the two main

:09:16.:09:18.

parties and, for once, voters can hardly complain that

:09:19.:09:20.

So, just how big is the choice on offer to the public?

:09:21.:09:24.

Since the Liberal Democrats and SNP have ruled out

:09:25.:09:26.

coalitions after June 8th, Adam Fleming compares the Labour

:09:27.:09:28.

Welcome to the BBC's election centre.

:09:29.:09:31.

Four minutes from now, when Big Ben strikes 10.00,

:09:32.:09:35.

we can legally reveal the contents of this, our exit poll.

:09:36.:09:39.

18 days to go, and the BBC's election night studio

:09:40.:09:41.

This is where David Dimbleby will sit, although there is no chair yet.

:09:42.:09:51.

The parties' policies are now the finished product.

:09:52.:09:54.

In Bradford, Jeremy Corbyn vowed a bigger state,

:09:55.:09:57.

the end of austerity, no more tuition fees.

:09:58.:10:00.

The Tory campaign, by contrast, is built on one word - fear.

:10:01.:10:08.

Down the road in Halifax, Theresa May kept a promise to get

:10:09.:10:16.

immigration down to the tens of thousands, and talked

:10:17.:10:19.

of leadership and tough choices in uncertain times.

:10:20.:10:22.

Strengthen my hand as I fight for Britain, and stand with me

:10:23.:10:29.

And, with confidence in ourselves and a unity

:10:30.:10:34.

of purpose in our country, let us go forward together.

:10:35.:10:42.

Let's look at the Labour and Conservative

:10:43.:10:45.

On tax, Labour would introduce a 50p rate for top earners.

:10:46.:10:51.

The Conservatives ditched their triple lock, giving them

:10:52.:11:15.

freedom to put up income tax and national insurance,

:11:16.:11:17.

although they want to keep the overall tax burden the same.

:11:18.:11:20.

Labour offered a major overhaul of the country's wiring,

:11:21.:11:22.

with a pledge to renationalise infrastructure, like power,

:11:23.:11:24.

The Conservatives said that would cost a fortune,

:11:25.:11:27.

but provided few details for the cost of their policies.

:11:28.:11:29.

Labour have simply become a shambles, and, as yesterday's

:11:30.:11:31.

manifesto showed, their numbers simply do not add up.

:11:32.:11:33.

What have they got planned for health and social care?

:11:34.:11:36.

The Conservatives offered more cash for the NHS,

:11:37.:11:40.

reaching an extra ?8 billion a year by the end of the parliament.

:11:41.:11:43.

Labour promised an extra ?30 billion over the course of the same period,

:11:44.:11:47.

plus free hospital parking and more pay for staff.

:11:48.:11:53.

The Conservatives would increase the value of assets you could

:11:54.:12:00.

protect from the cost of social care to ?100,000, but your home would be

:12:01.:12:03.

added to the assessment of your wealth,

:12:04.:12:05.

There was a focus on one group of voters in particular

:12:06.:12:09.

Labour would keep the triple lock, which guarantees that pensions go up

:12:10.:12:15.

The Tories would keep the increase in line

:12:16.:12:20.

with inflation or earnings, a double lock.

:12:21.:12:24.

The Conservatives would end of winter fuel payments

:12:25.:12:26.

for the richest, although we don't know exactly who that would be,

:12:27.:12:30.

This is a savage attack on vulnerable pensioners,

:12:31.:12:38.

particularly those who are just about managing.

:12:39.:12:42.

It is disgraceful, and we are calling upon the Conservative Party

:12:43.:12:46.

When it comes to leaving the European Union, Labour say

:12:47.:12:52.

they'd sweep away the government's negotiating strategy,

:12:53.:12:56.

secure a better deal and straightaway guaranteed the rights

:12:57.:12:58.

The Tories say a big majority would remove political uncertainty

:12:59.:13:04.

Jeremy Vine's due here in two and a half weeks.

:13:05.:13:17.

I'm joined now by David Gauke, who is Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

:13:18.:13:23.

Welcome back to the programme. The Tories once promised a cap on social

:13:24.:13:29.

care costs. Why have you abandoned that? We've looked at it, and there

:13:30.:13:37.

are couple of proposals with the Dilnot proposal. Much of the benefit

:13:38.:13:42.

would go to those inheriting larger estates. The second point was it was

:13:43.:13:46.

hoped that a cap would stimulate the larger insurance products that would

:13:47.:13:52.

fill the gap, but there is no sign that those products are emerging.

:13:53.:13:57.

Without a cap, you will not get one. We have come forward with a new

:13:58.:14:02.

proposal which we think is fairer, provide more money for social care,

:14:03.:14:06.

which is very important and is one of the big issues we face as a

:14:07.:14:11.

country. It is right that we face those big issues. Social care is

:14:12.:14:16.

one, getting a good Brexit deal is another. This demonstrates that

:14:17.:14:24.

Theresa May has an ambition to lead a government that addresses those

:14:25.:14:26.

big long-term issues. Looking at social care. If you have assets,

:14:27.:14:32.

including your home, of over ?100,000, you have to pay for all

:14:33.:14:37.

your social care costs. Is that fair? It is right that for the

:14:38.:14:41.

services that are provided to you, that that is paid out of your

:14:42.:14:47.

assets, subject to two really important qualifications. First, you

:14:48.:14:51.

shouldn't have your entire estate wiped out. At the moment, if you are

:14:52.:14:58.

in residential care, it can be wiped out ?223,000. If you are in

:14:59.:15:03.

domiciliary care, it can be out to ?23,000, plus you're domiciliary.

:15:04.:15:10.

Nobody should be forced to sell their house in their lifetime if

:15:11.:15:14.

they or their spouse needs long-term care. Again, we have protected that

:15:15.:15:16.

in the proposals we set out. But the state will basically take a

:15:17.:15:26.

chunk of your house when you die and they sell. In an essence it is a

:15:27.:15:31.

stealth inheritance tax on everything above ?100,000. But we

:15:32.:15:34.

have those two important protections. I am including that. It

:15:35.:15:38.

is a stealth inheritance tax. We have to face up to the fact that

:15:39.:15:43.

there are significant costs that we face as a country in terms of health

:15:44.:15:47.

and social careful. Traditionally, politicians don't address those

:15:48.:15:52.

issues, particularly during election campaigns. I think it is too Theresa

:15:53.:15:58.

May's credit that we are being straightforward with the British

:15:59.:16:01.

people and saying that we face this long-term challenge. Our manifesto

:16:02.:16:04.

was about the big challenges that we face, one of which was

:16:05.:16:08.

intergenerational fairness and one of which was delivering a strong

:16:09.:16:12.

economy and making sure that we can do that. But in the end, someone is

:16:13.:16:19.

going to have to pay for this. It is going to have to be a balance

:16:20.:16:22.

between the general taxpayer and those receiving the services. We

:16:23.:16:25.

think we have struck the right balance with this proposal. But it

:16:26.:16:29.

is entirely on the individual. People watching this programme, if

:16:30.:16:33.

they have a fair amount of assets, not massive, including the home,

:16:34.:16:40.

they will need to pay for everything themselves until their assets are

:16:41.:16:44.

reduced to ?100,000. It is not a balance, you're putting everything

:16:45.:16:49.

on the original two individual. At the moment, for those in residential

:16:50.:16:55.

care, they have to pay everything until 20 3000. -- everything on the

:16:56.:16:59.

individual. But now they will face more. Those in individual care are

:17:00.:17:03.

seeing their protection going up by four times as much, so that is

:17:04.:17:07.

eliminating unfairness. Why should those in residential care be in a

:17:08.:17:11.

worse position than those receiving domiciliary care? But as I say, that

:17:12.:17:17.

money has to come from somewhere and we are sitting at a proper plan for

:17:18.:17:20.

it. While also made the point that we are more likely to be able to

:17:21.:17:24.

have a properly functioning social care market if we have a strong

:17:25.:17:28.

economy, and to have a strong economy we need to deliver a good

:17:29.:17:31.

deal on Brexit and I think Theresa May is capable of doing that. You

:17:32.:17:36.

have said that before. But if you have a heart attack in old age, the

:17:37.:17:40.

NHS will take care of you. If you have dementia, you now have to pay

:17:41.:17:44.

for the care of yourself. Is that they are? It is already the case

:17:45.:17:48.

that if you have long-term care costs come up as I say, if you are

:17:49.:17:53.

in residential care you pay for all of it until the last ?23,000, but if

:17:54.:17:58.

you are in domiciliary care, excluding your housing assets, but

:17:59.:18:02.

all of your other assets get used up until you are down to ?23,000 a

:18:03.:18:08.

year. And I think it is right at this point that a party that aspires

:18:09.:18:15.

to run this country for the long-term, to address the long-term

:18:16.:18:18.

challenges we have is a country, for us to be clear that we need to

:18:19.:18:23.

deliver this. Because if it is not paid for it this way, if it goes and

:18:24.:18:29.

falls on the general taxpayer, the people who feel hard pressed by the

:18:30.:18:33.

amount of income tax and VAT they pay, frankly we have to say to them,

:18:34.:18:37.

those taxes will go up if we do not address it. But they might go up

:18:38.:18:42.

anyway. The average house price in your part of the country is just shy

:18:43.:18:48.

of ?430,000, so if you told your own constituents that they might have to

:18:49.:18:52.

spend ?300,000 of their assets on social care before the state steps

:18:53.:18:57.

in to help...? As I said earlier, nobody will be forced to pay during

:18:58.:19:02.

their lifetime. Nobody will be forced to sell their houses. We are

:19:03.:19:08.

providing that protection because of the third premium. Which makes it a

:19:09.:19:12.

kind of death tax, doesn't it? Which is what you use to rail against.

:19:13.:19:18.

What it is people paying for the services they have paid out of their

:19:19.:19:22.

assets. But with that very important protection that nobody is going to

:19:23.:19:26.

be wiped out in the way that has happened up until now, down to the

:19:27.:19:31.

last three years. But when Labour propose this, George Osborne called

:19:32.:19:35.

it a death tax and you are now proposing a stealth death tax

:19:36.:19:39.

inheritance tax. Labour's proposals were very different. It is the same

:19:40.:19:45.

effect. Labour's were hitting everyone with an inheritance tax. We

:19:46.:19:52.

are saying that there are -- that there is a state contribution but

:19:53.:19:55.

the public receiving the services will have to pay for it out of

:19:56.:20:01.

assets, which have grown substantially. And which they might

:20:02.:20:05.

now lose to social care. But I would say that people in Hertfordshire pay

:20:06.:20:09.

a lot in income tracks, national insurance and VAT, and this is my

:20:10.:20:14.

bet is going to have to come from somewhere. Well, they are now going

:20:15.:20:18.

to pay a lot of tax and pay for social care. Turning to immigration,

:20:19.:20:23.

you promised to get net migration down to 100,020 ten. You failed. You

:20:24.:20:28.

promised again in 2015 and you are feeling again. Why should voters

:20:29.:20:32.

trust you a third time? It is very clear that only the Conservative

:20:33.:20:36.

Party has an ambition to control immigration and to bring it down. An

:20:37.:20:42.

ambition you have failed to deliver. There are, of course, factors that

:20:43.:20:45.

come into play. For example a couple of years ago we were going through a

:20:46.:20:49.

period when the UK was creating huge numbers of jobs but none of our

:20:50.:20:52.

European neighbours were doing anything like it. Not surprisingly,

:20:53.:20:56.

that feeds through into the immigration numbers that we see. But

:20:57.:21:03.

it is right that we have that ambition because I do not believe it

:21:04.:21:08.

is sustainable to have hundreds of thousands net migration, you're

:21:09.:21:12.

after year after year, and only Theresa May of the Conservative

:21:13.:21:16.

Party is willing to address that. It has gone from being a target to an

:21:17.:21:20.

ambition, and I am pretty sure in a couple of years it will become an

:21:21.:21:24.

untimed aspiration. Is net migration now higher or lower than when you

:21:25.:21:30.

came to power in 2010? I think it is higher at the moment. Let's look at

:21:31.:21:35.

the figures. And there they are. You are right, it is higher, so after

:21:36.:21:40.

six years in power, promising to get it down to 100,000, it is higher. So

:21:41.:21:47.

if that is an ambition and you have not succeeded. We have to accept

:21:48.:21:51.

that there are a number of factors. It continues to be the case that the

:21:52.:21:56.

UK economy is growing and creating a lot of jobs, which is undoubtedly

:21:57.:21:59.

drawing people. But you made the promise on the basis that would not

:22:00.:22:03.

happen? We are certainly outperforming other countries in a

:22:04.:22:06.

way that we could not have predicted in 2010. That is one of the factors.

:22:07.:22:11.

But if you look at a lot of the steps that we have taken over the

:22:12.:22:14.

course of the last seven years, dealing with bogus students, for

:22:15.:22:20.

example, tightening up a lot of the rules. You can say all that but it

:22:21.:22:24.

has made no difference to the headline figure. Clearly it would

:22:25.:22:27.

have gone up by much more and we not taken the steps. But as I say, we

:22:28.:22:32.

cannot for ever, it seems to me, have net migration numbers in the

:22:33.:22:38.

hundreds of thousands. If we get that good Brexit deal, one of the

:22:39.:22:42.

things we can do is tighten up in terms of access here. You say that

:22:43.:22:47.

but you have always had control of non-EU migration. You cannot blame

:22:48.:22:51.

the EU for that. You control immigration from outside the EU.

:22:52.:22:54.

Have you ever managed to get even that below 100,000? Well, no doubt

:22:55.:23:01.

you will present the numbers now. You haven't. You have got down a bit

:23:02.:23:06.

from 2010, I will give you that, but even non-EU migration is still a lot

:23:07.:23:11.

more than 100000 and that is the thing you control. It is 164,000 on

:23:12.:23:16.

the latest figures. There is no point in saying to the voters that

:23:17.:23:19.

when we get control of the EU migration you will get it down when

:23:20.:23:22.

the bit you have control over, you have failed to get that down into

:23:23.:23:28.

the tens of thousands. The general trend has gone up. Non-EU migration

:23:29.:23:32.

we have brought down over the last few years. Not by much, not by

:23:33.:23:38.

anywhere near your 100,000 target. But we clearly have more tools

:23:39.:23:43.

available to us, following Brexit. At this rate it will be around 2030

:23:44.:23:48.

before you get non-EU migration down to 100,000. We clearly have more

:23:49.:23:51.

tools available to us and I return to the point I made. In the last six

:23:52.:23:55.

or seven years, particularly the last four or five, we have seen the

:23:56.:23:59.

UK jobs market growing substantially. It is extraordinary

:24:00.:24:03.

how many more jobs we have. So you'll only promised the migration

:24:04.:24:06.

target because you did not think you were going to run the economy well?

:24:07.:24:11.

That is what you are telling me. I don't think anyone expected us to

:24:12.:24:14.

create quite a number of jobs that we have done over the last six or

:24:15.:24:18.

seven years. At the time when other European countries have not been.

:24:19.:24:21.

George Osborne says your target is economically illiterate. I disagree

:24:22.:24:27.

with George on that. He is my old boss but I disagree with him on that

:24:28.:24:34.

point. And the reason I say that is looking at the economics and the

:24:35.:24:37.

wider social impact, I don't think it is sustainable for us to have

:24:38.:24:43.

hundreds of thousands, year after year after year. Let me ask you one

:24:44.:24:46.

other thing because you are the chief secretary. Your promising that

:24:47.:24:50.

spending on health will be ?8 billion higher in five use time than

:24:51.:24:55.

it is now. How do you pay for that? From a strong economy, two years ago

:24:56.:24:58.

we had a similar conversation because at that point we said that

:24:59.:25:04.

we would increase spending by ?8 billion. And we are more than on

:25:05.:25:08.

track to deliver it, because it is a priority area for us. Where will the

:25:09.:25:12.

money come from? It will be a priority area for us. We will find

:25:13.:25:17.

the money. So you have not been able to show us a revenue line where this

:25:18.:25:22.

?8 billion will come from. We have a record of making promises to spend

:25:23.:25:26.

more on the NHS and delivering. One thing I would say is that the only

:25:27.:25:31.

way you can spend more money on the NHS is if you have a strong economy,

:25:32.:25:36.

and the biggest risk... But that is true of anything. I am trying to

:25:37.:25:39.

find out where the ?8 billion come from, where will it come from? Know

:25:40.:25:44.

you were saying that perhaps you might increase taxes, ticking off

:25:45.:25:47.

the lock, so people are right to be suspicious. But you will not tell us

:25:48.:25:54.

where the ?8 billion will come from. Andrew, a strong economy is key to

:25:55.:25:58.

delivering more NHS money. That does not tell us where the money is

:25:59.:26:02.

coming from. The biggest risk to a strong economy would be a bad

:26:03.:26:06.

Brexit, which Jeremy Corbyn would deliver. And we have a record of

:26:07.:26:11.

putting more money into the NHS. I think that past performance we can

:26:12.:26:14.

take forward. Thank you for joining us.

:26:15.:26:16.

So, the Conservatives have been taking a bit of flak

:26:17.:26:18.

But Conservative big guns have been out and about this morning taking

:26:19.:26:22.

Here's Boris Johnson on ITV's Peston programme earlier today:

:26:23.:26:26.

What we're trying to do is to address what I think

:26:27.:26:30.

everybody, all serious demographers acknowledge will be the massive

:26:31.:26:33.

problem of the cost of social care long-term.

:26:34.:26:37.

This is a responsible, grown-up, conservative approach,

:26:38.:26:40.

trying to deal with a long-term problem in a way that is equitable,

:26:41.:26:43.

allows people to pass on a very substantial sum,

:26:44.:26:46.

still, to their kids, and takes away the fear

:26:47.:26:48.

Joining me now from Liverpool is Labour's Shadow Chief Secretary

:26:49.:26:54.

Petered out, welcome to the programme. Let's start with social

:26:55.:27:06.

care. The Tories are saying that if you have ?100,000 or more in assets,

:27:07.:27:10.

you should pay for your own social care. What is wrong with that? Well,

:27:11.:27:15.

I think the issue at the end of the day is the question of fairness. Is

:27:16.:27:20.

it fair? And what we're trying to do is to get to a situation where we

:27:21.:27:24.

have, for example, the Dilnot report, which identified that you

:27:25.:27:30.

actually have cap on your spending on social care. We are trying to get

:27:31.:27:33.

to a position where it is a reasonable and fair approach to

:27:34.:27:39.

expenditure. But you will know that a lot of people, particularly in the

:27:40.:27:44.

south of country, London and the south-east, and the adjacent areas

:27:45.:27:48.

around it, they have benefited from huge house price inflation. They

:27:49.:27:51.

have seen their homes go up in value, if and when they sell, they

:27:52.:27:56.

are not taxed on that increase. Why should these people not pay for

:27:57.:28:02.

their own social care if they have the assets to do so? They will be

:28:03.:28:06.

paying for some of their social care but you cannot take social care and

:28:07.:28:11.

health care separately. It has to be an integrated approach. So for

:28:12.:28:14.

example if you do have dementia, you're more likely to be in an

:28:15.:28:18.

elderly person's home for longer and you most probably have been in care

:28:19.:28:22.

for a longer period of time. On the other hand, you might have, if you

:28:23.:28:26.

have had a stroke, there may be continuing care needs paid for by

:28:27.:28:29.

the NHS. So at the end of the date it is trying to get a reasonable

:28:30.:28:33.

balance and just to pluck a figure of ?100,000 out of thin air is not

:28:34.:28:42.

sensible. You will have heard me say about David Gold that the house

:28:43.:28:47.

prices in his area, about 450,000 or so, not quite that, and that people

:28:48.:28:51.

may have to spend quite a lot of that on social care to get down to

:28:52.:28:56.

?100,000. But in your area, the average house price is only

:28:57.:29:00.

?149,000, so your people would not have to pay anything like as much

:29:01.:29:06.

before they hit the ?100,000 minimum. I hesitate to say that but

:29:07.:29:12.

is that not almost a socialist approach to social care that if you

:29:13.:29:15.

are in the affluent Home Counties with a big asset, you pay more, and

:29:16.:29:20.

if you are in an area that is not so affluent and your house is not worth

:29:21.:29:23.

very much, you pay a lot less. What is wrong with that principle? I

:29:24.:29:28.

think the problem I am trying to get to is this issue about equity across

:29:29.:29:32.

the piece. At the end of the day, what we want is a system whereby it

:29:33.:29:38.

is capped at a particular level, and the Dilnot report, after much

:29:39.:29:42.

examination, said we should have a cap on care costs at ?72,000. The

:29:43.:29:46.

Conservatives decided to ditch that and come up with another policy

:29:47.:29:50.

which by all accounts seems to be even more Draconian. At the end of

:29:51.:29:54.

the day it is trying to get social care and an NHS care in a much more

:29:55.:30:03.

fluid way. We had offered the Conservatives to have a bipartisan

:30:04.:30:06.

approach to this. David just said that this is a long term. You do not

:30:07.:30:11.

pick a figure out of thin air and use that as a long-term strategy.

:30:12.:30:17.

The Conservatives are now saying they will increase health spending

:30:18.:30:22.

over the next five years in real terms. You will increase health

:30:23.:30:27.

spending. In what way is your approach to health spending better

:30:28.:30:33.

than the Tories' now? We are contributing an extra 7.2 billion to

:30:34.:30:39.

the NHS and social care over the next few years. But you just don't

:30:40.:30:44.

put money into the NHS or social care. It has to be an integrated

:30:45.:30:48.

approach to social and health care. What we've got is just more of the

:30:49.:30:53.

same. What we don't want to do is just say, we ring-fenced an out for

:30:54.:30:58.

here or there. What you have to do is try to get that... Let me ask you

:30:59.:31:07.

again. In terms of the amount of resource that is going to be devoted

:31:08.:31:11.

in the next five years, and resource does matter for the NHS, in what way

:31:12.:31:17.

are your plans different now from the Conservative plans? The key is

:31:18.:31:21.

how you use that resource. By just putting money in, you've got to say,

:31:22.:31:27.

if we are going to put that money on, how do we use it? As somebody

:31:28.:31:33.

who has worked in social care for 40 years, you have to have a different

:31:34.:31:37.

approach to how you use that money. The money we are putting in, 7.7,

:31:38.:31:43.

may be similar in cash terms to what the Tories claim they are putting

:31:44.:31:47.

in, but it's not how much you put in per se, it is how you use it. You

:31:48.:32:01.

are going to get rid of car parking charges in hospital, and you are

:32:02.:32:03.

going to increase pay by taking the cap on pay off. So it doesn't

:32:04.:32:06.

necessarily follow that the money, under your way of doing it, will

:32:07.:32:09.

follow the front line. What you need in the NHS is a system that is

:32:10.:32:13.

capable of dealing with the patience you have. What we have now is on at

:32:14.:32:20.

five Asian of the NHS. Staff leaving, not being paid properly. So

:32:21.:32:30.

pay and the NHS go hand in hand. Let's move onto another area of

:32:31.:32:33.

policy where there is some confusion. Who speaks for the Labour

:32:34.:32:39.

Party on nuclear weapons? Is it Emily Thornbury, or Nia Griffith,

:32:40.:32:46.

defence spokesperson? The Labour manifesto. It is clear. We are

:32:47.:32:50.

committed to the nuclear deterrent, and that is the definitive... Is it?

:32:51.:33:01.

Emily Thornbury said that Trident could be scrapped in the defence

:33:02.:33:05.

review you would have immediately after taking power. On LBC on Friday

:33:06.:33:10.

night. She didn't, actually. I listened to that. What she actually

:33:11.:33:16.

said is, as part of a Labour government coming in, a new

:33:17.:33:20.

government, there is always a defence review. But not the concept

:33:21.:33:25.

of Trident in its substance. She said there would be a review in

:33:26.:33:32.

terms of, and this is in our manifesto. When you reduce

:33:33.:33:36.

something, you review how it is operated. The review could scrap

:33:37.:33:42.

Trident. It won't scrap Trident. The review is in the context of how you

:33:43.:33:47.

protect it from cyber attacks. This will issue was seized upon that she

:33:48.:33:53.

was saying that we would have another review of Trident or Labour

:33:54.:33:58.

would ditch it. That is nonsense. You will have seen some reports that

:33:59.:34:05.

MI5 opened a file on Jeremy Corbyn in the early 90s because of his

:34:06.:34:09.

links to Irish republicanism. This has caused some people, his links to

:34:10.:34:17.

the IRA and Sinn Fein, it has caused some concern. Could you just listen

:34:18.:34:24.

to this clip and react. Do you condemn what the IRA did? I condemn

:34:25.:34:31.

all bombing. But do you condemn what the IRA did? I condemn what was done

:34:32.:34:35.

with the British Army as well as both sides as well. What happened in

:34:36.:34:40.

Derry in 1972 was pretty devastating as well. Do you distinguish between

:34:41.:34:46.

state forces, what the British Army did and the IRA? Well, in a sense,

:34:47.:34:53.

the treatment of IRA prisoners which made them into virtual political

:34:54.:34:58.

prisoners suggested that the British government and the state saw some

:34:59.:35:03.

kind of almost equivalent in it. My point is that the whole violence if

:35:04.:35:10.

you was terrible, was appalling, and came out of a process that had been

:35:11.:35:16.

allowed to fester in Northern Ireland for a very long time. That

:35:17.:35:21.

was from about two years ago. Can you explain why the Leader of the

:35:22.:35:26.

Labour Party, Her Majesty 's opposition, the man who would be our

:35:27.:35:30.

next Prime Minister, finds it so hard to condemn IRA arming? I think

:35:31.:35:36.

it has to be within the context that Jeremy Corbyn for many years trying

:35:37.:35:40.

to move the peace protest... Process along. So why wouldn't you condemn

:35:41.:35:49.

IRA bombing? Again, that was an issue, a traumatic event in Irish -

:35:50.:35:56.

British relations that went on for 30 years. It is a complicated

:35:57.:36:02.

matter. Bombing is not that complicated. If you are a man of

:36:03.:36:07.

peace, surely you would condemn the bomb and the bullet? Let me say

:36:08.:36:11.

this, I condemn the bomb and the bullet. Why can't your leader? You

:36:12.:36:17.

would have to ask Jeremy Corbyn, but that is in the context of what he

:36:18.:36:22.

was trying to do over a 25 year period to move the priest process

:36:23.:36:23.

along. Thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35,

:36:24.:36:27.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. In the East Midlands...

:36:28.:36:29.

in Scotland and Wales. The election hits top gear

:36:30.:36:43.

as the parties target those vital I think with Jeremy Corbyn, all we

:36:44.:36:45.

will get is a government of chaos. I actually think the nasty party

:36:46.:36:50.

is back, and I think that is the revelation of this week,

:36:51.:36:53.

the revelation of the And the frustrations of a young

:36:54.:36:56.

generation of black voters who want their voices heard

:36:57.:37:01.

in politics. There is a causal effect

:37:02.:37:05.

between the lack of black politicians and the lack

:37:06.:37:08.

of engagement of young They are looking to the political

:37:09.:37:10.

system and they cannot see anybody like them,

:37:11.:37:13.

so how can we expect them to involve My guests this week,

:37:14.:37:16.

Leon Spence is a Conservative Until very recently he was a Labour

:37:17.:37:21.

councillor, but left the party in protest over the direction

:37:22.:37:27.

it was taking under Jeremy Corbyn. And Professor Cecile Wright

:37:28.:37:29.

is a Labour activist and founder of the Black Labour Network,

:37:30.:37:32.

and a strong supporter We have a letter here that was sent

:37:33.:37:52.

to postal voters in Gedling, but on this letter, there is no mention of

:37:53.:37:58.

Conservative. It is from right operable, Theresa May, by Minister.

:37:59.:38:01.

It does not mention conservatives. It does not mention conservatives.

:38:02.:38:05.

Is this a toxic brand or something? I do not think so. What it is is a

:38:06.:38:09.

measure of how popular the Prime Minister is at the moment. Not how

:38:10.:38:14.

popular the party is? I think we have seen local election results

:38:15.:38:19.

recently throughout the country for recently throughout the country for

:38:20.:38:24.

the Conservative Party, but you go out knocking on doors, it certainly

:38:25.:38:27.

ain't huge swathes of the country, and you see Theresa May is popular.

:38:28.:38:34.

An example, I will quote my mother who has been a Labour voter all her

:38:35.:38:37.

life, and she says Theresa May is somebody that she likes, she trusts.

:38:38.:38:42.

What about the weekend wobble? You have seen the polls. It is a long

:38:43.:38:47.

election campaign, and when you see the polling at this period of time,

:38:48.:38:52.

you see a narrowing of the gap in polling as we approach for weeks

:38:53.:38:56.

out. I personally would suggest that you will see an increase as we move

:38:57.:39:01.

Conservatives. You think this move Conservatives. You think this move

:39:02.:39:11.

is happening across the board? I would like to cooperate the

:39:12.:39:20.

receiving of male with the not mincing... I have directed mail from

:39:21.:39:27.

Theresa May and had I not known she was leader of the Conservative

:39:28.:39:30.

Party, I would not known in this. I would say that what I'm getting on

:39:31.:39:34.

the ground, particularly in Derby is that people are impressed by the

:39:35.:39:42.

Labour Party's manifesto, impressed by the policies that are in there,

:39:43.:39:47.

impressed by the fact that we are focusing on providing policies that

:39:48.:39:54.

are there for the many and not the few. So I am seeing a shift, a

:39:55.:40:00.

positive shift to the Labour Party. We will talk more about this later.

:40:01.:40:05.

The pace of the election moved up a gear this week as the main parties

:40:06.:40:09.

And with our region containing some vital marginal seats,

:40:10.:40:12.

top politicians were despatched here to rustle up votes.

:40:13.:40:14.

But what do those manifestos have to offer us here

:40:15.:40:16.

Our political editor Tony Roe's been taking a closer look.

:40:17.:40:24.

On the campaign trail for a fourth week in weather fair and foul.

:40:25.:40:28.

Really foul for those Labour supporters in Derby,

:40:29.:40:34.

but they were upbeat. Confident the polls do them now,

:40:35.:40:36.

confident manifesto commitments will appeal.

:40:37.:40:41.

The renationalisation of the railways, where you then

:40:42.:40:44.

have a long-term investment programme in the railway industry.

:40:45.:40:47.

Places like Derby, not only will we increase their connectivity,

:40:48.:40:50.

but in addition to that, Bombardier will be one

:40:51.:40:53.

of the companies that will be providing a lot of the railway stock

:40:54.:40:56.

that we will need in that new system.

:40:57.:41:00.

So, for Derby, I think, this manifesto, you could almost have

:41:01.:41:03.

On the afternoon of his party's manifesto launch,

:41:04.:41:09.

the Conservative Party chairman was in Labour marginal Gedling

:41:10.:41:11.

We have got to find ways to spend money responsibly,

:41:12.:41:17.

and it is no good promising things if you can't do it...

:41:18.:41:20.

There is no specific mention of the electrification

:41:21.:41:24.

of Midland Mainline in the Tory manifesto this time, but a more

:41:25.:41:27.

general commitment to work through an existing programme.

:41:28.:41:30.

We are seeing vast investment in the East Midlands,

:41:31.:41:35.

so if we look at what has happened with the Nottingham station,

:41:36.:41:38.

the refurbishment of the Nottingham station,

:41:39.:41:39.

the work that is going to take place as far as Derby

:41:40.:41:42.

station is concerned, with the reconfiguration

:41:43.:41:44.

of the station, those are all very important things.

:41:45.:41:49.

It has been said that part of the Conservative manifesto has

:41:50.:41:52.

shifted so far to the middle ground that some of the ideas in it

:41:53.:41:56.

have come from this man, pounding the streets

:41:57.:41:57.

I think the real thing is always better than the invitation,

:41:58.:42:02.

and I think that it is true that Theresa May has taken

:42:03.:42:04.

a few of the ideas I had, but she has not copied them properly

:42:05.:42:08.

I think the mask has slipped this week, because I think when people

:42:09.:42:12.

see what the Tories are proposing for pensions, taking

:42:13.:42:15.

the winter fuel allowance from 10 million of our pensioners,

:42:16.:42:18.

Reducing the amount of care people get in their own homes,

:42:19.:42:23.

a tax on dementia, I actually think the nasty party is back,

:42:24.:42:26.

and I think that is the revelation of this week, the revelation

:42:27.:42:30.

What this manifesto is, it is addressing the problems

:42:31.:42:35.

for the United Kingdom in today's society.

:42:36.:42:37.

It is also talking about the very important issue of our leaving

:42:38.:42:41.

the European Union and making sure that Theresa May gets a strong

:42:42.:42:44.

mandate, because I think that is very important.

:42:45.:42:46.

In just over three weeks, there will be one of two people

:42:47.:42:49.

It will either be Theresa May, or it will be Jeremy Corbyn.

:42:50.:42:54.

I think with Jeremy Corbyn, all we will get is a Government of chaos.

:42:55.:42:58.

Manifestos have given all parties something to attack in the last

:42:59.:43:01.

Some politicians have even admitted they don't either.

:43:02.:43:08.

What's going to stick are the headlines, the slogans,

:43:09.:43:11.

but this time, we won't have anything carved in stone,

:43:12.:43:14.

Well, last week we heard from the Lib Dems and the Green

:43:15.:43:24.

Party in the studio, and we'll be hearing

:43:25.:43:26.

from all of the parties in the run up to the election.

:43:27.:43:29.

Margot Parker is an MEP for the party and she's with us now.

:43:30.:43:35.

Margot Parker, where's your manifesto?

:43:36.:43:40.

It is going to be delivered on Wednesday this week, so just a

:43:41.:43:45.

couple of days. Are you going to tell us what is in it? Of course

:43:46.:43:58.

not. Sandy Berger? Yes yes, but not indifference to France. Anything

:43:59.:44:05.

that helps society be more cohesive. That is our angle. We are hearing

:44:06.:44:09.

calls for an English parliament. Will that strike a chord in the East

:44:10.:44:14.

Midlands? I think it might. I think people are fed up with the SNP in

:44:15.:44:20.

Scotland and controlling Westminster with their questions instead of

:44:21.:44:22.

getting on with the business, so I think people are fed up and saying,

:44:23.:44:27.

well, let's have an English parliament that actually serves the

:44:28.:44:31.

people of England. When he manifesto comes out, do expect a ride in the

:44:32.:44:35.

opinion polls? At the moment you are pretty low down. I am hopeful,

:44:36.:44:40.

absolutely. It is interesting to see the Tory party have taken many

:44:41.:44:45.

policies from the 2050 manifesto of hours, so we have had some good

:44:46.:44:50.

influence and that is to be applauded.

:44:51.:44:55.

Leon Spence, John McDonnell in Tony's report saying

:44:56.:44:57.

that the Labour manifesto could have been written for Derby,

:44:58.:45:01.

which is very kind of them, but what he means is there'll be

:45:02.:45:05.

investment in rail projects which will be good for the city,

:45:06.:45:07.

This is a manifesto that could do well in parts of East Midlands. Ukip

:45:08.:45:17.

have done a remarkable job in delivering their purpose. We are a

:45:18.:45:25.

long-term party, my friend. They are very much achieving Brexit. We are

:45:26.:45:31.

pretty critical pathway of delivering a strong, stable Brexit

:45:32.:45:35.

for the Government. You have subsumed Ukip's policies. I do not

:45:36.:45:40.

think so, but we have taken a lot of their purpose, which is to take a

:45:41.:45:47.

stable Brexit/ that is rubbish. We have been made for the long haul. We

:45:48.:45:52.

have had built up slowly over the years. Brexit was very important to

:45:53.:45:57.

us to get something deliberate, it would free the country and allow us

:45:58.:46:01.

to prosper and grow. But that will continue. Many people will be voting

:46:02.:46:06.

Ukip. When they see our manifesto, they will more so. Cecile? Ukip was

:46:07.:46:14.

always a single issue party and has now served its purpose. Now let's

:46:15.:46:22.

focus on domestic policy. Our team is reporting that the Conservative

:46:23.:46:26.

manifesto has not gone down well, particularly with older people.

:46:27.:46:29.

Obviously all lot of talk this weekend is about social care and new

:46:30.:46:35.

arrangements for homeowners that need care in old age. Do think

:46:36.:46:39.

Labour will do well out of this? I hope so. Since 2010, the

:46:40.:46:46.

Conservative coalition, then the Conservative Party have cut social

:46:47.:46:52.

care by ?4.6 billion. So the situation we have with the crisis in

:46:53.:46:58.

social care is because of the major cuts in this area, the Labour

:46:59.:47:03.

manifesto has clearly stated how we will ensure that there is social

:47:04.:47:10.

care, to ensure our elderly population live in dignity. So our

:47:11.:47:16.

policy is not about dividing generations, not about pitting

:47:17.:47:19.

beyond against the old and taking from the old and expecting them,

:47:20.:47:25.

during a vulnerable time in their lives, to pay up. Does it not come

:47:26.:47:30.

down to as Patrick McLoughlin said, how people see as a leader? You

:47:31.:47:35.

would argue that Labour has a problem with Corbyn, whereas the

:47:36.:47:39.

opposite may be the case. One of the things you have heard many times on

:47:40.:47:45.

the doorstep is that we expect politicians to be more honest. I

:47:46.:47:49.

think what we have seen with Theresa May in this manifesto is saying

:47:50.:47:53.

there are challenges. We have a five-year period of time to deliver

:47:54.:47:56.

Brexit, deliver some of the huge issues around social care, and we

:47:57.:48:01.

need politicians to be honest. When it comes to things like the winter

:48:02.:48:04.

fuel allowance, not a popular policy to remove... Possibly very damaging.

:48:05.:48:12.

It is a nonsense to say in Scotland that they will be void of this. But

:48:13.:48:18.

and only England will be put in this direction for that I mean you cannot

:48:19.:48:21.

say it is colder in Scotland it was stupid. At least then time, lowering

:48:22.:48:33.

Corporation tax, white is it's the Tory manifesto to do this? This is a

:48:34.:48:42.

risky strategy. This, we need to grasp the nettle, people will suffer

:48:43.:48:44.

all, that for a good... We know all, that for a good... We know

:48:45.:48:51.

there are issues. Between 2014 and 2024, we know the number of

:48:52.:48:54.

85-year-old is going to have increased by one third. I think we

:48:55.:48:59.

do not know what is going to be happening in the next year, so we

:49:00.:49:03.

need a strong, stable Brexit that is going to deliver the very best

:49:04.:49:07.

possible. Not a coalition of chaos of all these minor Pollard bat

:49:08.:49:14.

parties. You got hammered in the local elections, what can you do as

:49:15.:49:21.

a party? But what can you do in the next 2.5 weeks to increase your

:49:22.:49:26.

share of the vote? Get out there, do what we are doing. Once we announce

:49:27.:49:30.

our manifesto, there are some good points in there, and from my own

:49:31.:49:35.

field which is about quality, gender equality, I am hopeful that we will

:49:36.:49:38.

see some sensible issues being discussed and hopefully that will

:49:39.:49:43.

raise is in the polls. We are certainly working very hard. We have

:49:44.:49:46.

great one in Leicestershire. Your great one in Leicestershire. Your

:49:47.:49:50.

manifesto will be costed like the other parties? It will be. The

:49:51.:49:56.

Labour Party manifesto has been costed. It is the Conservative Party

:49:57.:50:02.

won that has not been costed. I think the issue that we have is

:50:03.:50:07.

historically manifestos have not been costed because we have been

:50:08.:50:11.

looking at five-year terms. It was Ken Clarke who said he'd is not even

:50:12.:50:14.

never be costed. But you said never be costed. But you said

:50:15.:50:21.

Theresa is honest and it Tory party is honest, so why are they not

:50:22.:50:24.

costing the manifesto, why do they not cost what it is they are going

:50:25.:50:32.

to do? What we have in any manifesto is aspirations. We do not know the

:50:33.:50:38.

costs. Aspirations? All manifestos are aspirations? Thank you, mango,

:50:39.:50:43.

for talking to us today. Next, is it time to bring

:50:44.:50:45.

in quotas to make sure there are more politicians

:50:46.:50:48.

from our black communities? In the East Midlands

:50:49.:50:49.

there are no black MPs, One student at Nottingham

:50:50.:50:52.

Trent University has been researching the problem

:50:53.:50:55.

and the possible solutions. I've just finished my

:50:56.:50:57.

third year undergraduate degree at Nottingham Trent

:50:58.:51:04.

University studying politics and international relations,

:51:05.:51:06.

and I took a closer look into how the lack

:51:07.:51:08.

of Afro-Caribbean representation

:51:09.:51:09.

affects young Afro-Caribbean The lack of black

:51:10.:51:11.

politicians is having There are fewer black

:51:12.:51:15.

politicians, fewer black people involving themselves within politics

:51:16.:51:18.

and a general discontent The results from the last

:51:19.:51:20.

election are staggering. It was found that 18%

:51:21.:51:25.

of Afro-Caribbeans were not registered to vote, compared

:51:26.:51:28.

with 7% of white people. From my own research,

:51:29.:51:31.

it was found that 74% of people I interviewed

:51:32.:51:34.

stated representation their decision to participate

:51:35.:51:36.

within politics. This isn't just a matter

:51:37.:51:41.

for the elections. My generation have been

:51:42.:51:44.

talking about this for a Any issues that I have

:51:45.:51:47.

regarding anything in my community, it's the older

:51:48.:51:50.

generation of white gentlemen, privileged background that I have

:51:51.:51:55.

to communicate with. So there is a lack of understanding

:51:56.:51:59.

across the consensus of the issues that are really involved

:52:00.:52:03.

in our community. Even the Westminster election

:52:04.:52:09.

format, you find that not many of the black community

:52:10.:52:15.

do participate in voting,

:52:16.:52:16.

let alone wanting to take part in politics

:52:17.:52:21.

So yeah, I just think it starts with education.

:52:22.:52:27.

When you are a young age, obviously, you are

:52:28.:52:30.

always watching TV, always looking up,

:52:31.:52:31.

and if someone looks at you, for

:52:32.:52:33.

example, if they have the same colour as your skin, you are

:52:34.:52:36.

automatically you almost think you are kind of like them.

:52:37.:52:38.

And obviously if you don't see anyone in Parliament or in

:52:39.:52:41.

politics like that, who looks like you, then you kind of, you

:52:42.:52:43.

distinguish yourself and you say, "Oh, that can't

:52:44.:52:45.

One way that we can combat this is by having an

:52:46.:52:50.

ethnic quota within Parliament so ethnic minorities have a specific

:52:51.:52:53.

Political education needs to be on the agenda also, so young people

:52:54.:52:57.

know who represents them, why they are represented and how they

:52:58.:53:00.

Without this, we will have a generation of people

:53:01.:53:05.

Cecile Wright, I know you have done a lot of work on this, and it is

:53:06.:53:18.

almost the invisibility of black politicians. Why is that? It is a

:53:19.:53:24.

huge issue. It is a issue that all parties should be concerned about.

:53:25.:53:29.

The Labour Party is one of the most diverse parties in terms of

:53:30.:53:33.

representation, at Parliamentary level and local council level.

:53:34.:53:39.

Indeed, the party, within the party, we have policy to ensure this

:53:40.:53:43.

diversity. I think with the snap election, somehow those policies

:53:44.:53:46.

have been undermined in terms of the implementation. We have on the

:53:47.:53:53.

National laxatives, which is the governing body for the party, a

:53:54.:53:57.

representative for black and minority communities. The efficacy

:53:58.:54:02.

of that role in the sense that that position is held by an MP. One needs

:54:03.:54:08.

to be asking the question why they would hold a position on the

:54:09.:54:15.

executive. The issue is perhaps the stakeholders that are there to

:54:16.:54:20.

ensure there is diversity in some selection, it is not being

:54:21.:54:24.

effectively undertaken are implemented. Cecile has that Labour

:54:25.:54:28.

does wellingtons of diversity. Do think the Tory party has work to do

:54:29.:54:33.

on it? I think all do. We are in a position now where if the polls are

:54:34.:54:38.

to be believed, we could end up with more Conservative MPs than Labour

:54:39.:54:44.

will do, than is eight great move forwards. We have seen a molester of

:54:45.:54:49.

the three constituencies in Leicester, two of the constituencies

:54:50.:54:57.

are being fought. Two young candidates are taking on very

:54:58.:55:01.

difficulties to wing, but have a huge future in the party. Only 6% of

:55:02.:55:07.

MPs from any ethnic background at the moment. In local councils, 4% at

:55:08.:55:16.

background. Only 17% -- 17% from a background. Only 17% -- 17% from a

:55:17.:55:27.

motor background registered to vote. If you do not see yourself are

:55:28.:55:30.

presented in a political establishment. That is sending a

:55:31.:55:36.

message. That is worrying in the East Midlands because that is what

:55:37.:55:39.

we are focusing on. Across the East Midlands, we do not have a single

:55:40.:55:44.

black politician, of African Caribbean background, and when you

:55:45.:55:49.

think how many of the Parliamentary seats across East Midlands are

:55:50.:55:53.

located in areas where there are high ethnic minority communities

:55:54.:55:59.

constituencies, that is worrying. I think this should be a concern for

:56:00.:56:04.

all parties, and particularly the major parties. It is a big social

:56:05.:56:10.

issues sop to be better for society. Is it time for quotas? No,

:56:11.:56:19.

absolutely not. Yesterday I went to the Leicester Afro-Caribbean Centre

:56:20.:56:22.

where I spent most Saturday mornings, and I spoke to many people

:56:23.:56:27.

in that centre and they are not politically disengaged. I'm sure

:56:28.:56:31.

Cecile would say that they are absolutely fascinated and involved

:56:32.:56:35.

in the issues that affect their lives. Exit, work, making sure they

:56:36.:56:39.

have a decent life. I think there is a need for a structure which will

:56:40.:56:45.

reverse the crisis, and I think it is a crisis that we face, with

:56:46.:56:50.

respect to women and representations through the short lists... Introduce

:56:51.:56:57.

that as well. I think we need all-black short lists. Thank you

:56:58.:56:58.

very much indeed. With three weeks to go

:56:59.:57:00.

to the election, we'll be taking a closer look at some

:57:01.:57:02.

of our most important In the coming weeks we'll be

:57:03.:57:05.

focusing on some of the election hotspots in the East Midlands

:57:06.:57:08.

and hearing from all of the candidates, beginning

:57:09.:57:11.

with the marginal seat Rob Pittam reports now

:57:12.:57:12.

on the politicians looking There is a reason the big names have

:57:13.:57:16.

been hitting Gedling. It is a Midlands marginal

:57:17.:57:27.

that is a top target. Labour's Vernon Coaker has held

:57:28.:57:29.

the seat for 20 years, winning with a majority of just

:57:30.:57:32.

under 3000 in 2015. He is standing again,

:57:33.:57:36.

but he will be pushed hard Five candidates are

:57:37.:57:39.

standing here in total. I have taken up individual cases,

:57:40.:57:43.

campaigned on local issues. And the coice here will be

:57:44.:57:53.

that record of 20 years as against a Tory opportunist,

:57:54.:57:56.

somebody who has just come We are actually going to put

:57:57.:57:58.

more money into the NHS, We are looking after our

:57:59.:58:03.

long-term care for the elderly. And I really think that people

:58:04.:58:11.

are understanding that they do not want to risk the vote for anybody

:58:12.:58:14.

else when they know the economy and our country is going

:58:15.:58:17.

in the right direction. We are offering people in Gedling

:58:18.:58:19.

a chance which could be their last chance to vote against Corbyn

:58:20.:58:26.

and May's disastrous hard Brexit. A vote for the Liberal Democrats is

:58:27.:58:28.

a vote to change Britain's future. Do not crash out of the single

:58:29.:58:31.

market without a deal. We are your insurance policy

:58:32.:58:35.

to guarantee a full Brexit and hold We will have sensible

:58:36.:58:38.

controls on immigration, look for an English Parliament,

:58:39.:58:42.

proportional representation We will protect the environment,

:58:43.:58:44.

we will invest in clean, green energy, we will roll back

:58:45.:58:51.

privatisation on the NHS, Young people, education should be

:58:52.:58:54.

free, and protecting human rights, you will get the final

:58:55.:59:01.

vote on Brexit. election whereever you are,

:59:02.:59:11.

the deadline for registering And you can see a full list

:59:12.:59:13.

of candidates standing in every seat in the country on the BBC's

:59:14.:59:21.

online news pages. Just look for

:59:22.:59:23.

bbc.co.uk/news/elections. That's it for now

:59:24.:59:27.

from the East Midlands. My thanks to my guests,

:59:28.:59:29.

Leon Spence and Cecile Wright. Time now to hand you

:59:30.:59:32.

back to Andrew Neil. cancelled. And rent to own is still

:59:33.:59:34.

our policy. Thank you very much, Tom Brake. Andrew, back to you.

:59:35.:59:41.

So, two and half weeks to go till polling day,

:59:42.:59:44.

let's take stock of the campaign so far and look ahead

:59:45.:59:46.

Sam, Isabel and Steve are with me again.

:59:47.:59:55.

Sam, Mrs May had made a great thing about the just about managing. Not

:59:56.:00:03.

the poorest of the poor, but not really affluent people, who are

:00:04.:00:09.

maybe OK but it's a bit of a struggle. What is in the manifesto

:00:10.:00:13.

for them? There is something about the high profile items in the

:00:14.:00:17.

manifesto. She said she wants to help those just above the poorest

:00:18.:00:22.

level. But if you look at things like the winter fuel allowance,

:00:23.:00:27.

which is going to be given only to the poorest. If you look at free

:00:28.:00:31.

school meals for infants, those for the poorest are going to be kept,

:00:32.:00:36.

but the rest will go. The social care plan, those who are renting or

:00:37.:00:43.

in properties worth up to ?90,000, they are going to be treated, but

:00:44.:00:48.

those in properties worth above that, 250,000, for example, will

:00:49.:00:54.

have to pay. Which leads to the question - what is being done for

:00:55.:01:01.

the just about managings? There is something, the personal allowance

:01:02.:01:04.

that David Cameron promised in 2015, that they are not making a big deal

:01:05.:01:09.

of that, because they cannot say by how much. So you are looking in tax

:01:10.:01:15.

rises on the just about managings. Where will the tax rises come from.

:01:16.:01:23.

We do not know, that there is the 40 million pounds gap for the Tories to

:01:24.:01:30.

reach what they are pledging in their manifesto. We do not know how

:01:31.:01:35.

that is going to be made up, more tax, or more borrowing? So that is

:01:36.:01:41.

why the questions of the implications of removing the tax

:01:42.:01:45.

lock are so potentially difficult for Tory MPs. The Labour manifesto

:01:46.:01:49.

gives figures for the cost of certain policies and where the

:01:50.:01:52.

revenue will come from. You can argue about the figures, but at

:01:53.:01:58.

least we have the figures. The Tory manifesto is opaque on these

:01:59.:02:02.

matters. That applies to both the manifestos. Looking at the Labour

:02:03.:02:06.

manifesto on the way here this morning, when you look at the

:02:07.:02:10.

section on care for the elderly, they simply say, there are various

:02:11.:02:14.

ways in which the money for this can be raised. They are specific on

:02:15.:02:20.

other things. They are, and we heard John McDonnell this morning being

:02:21.:02:25.

very on that, and saying there is not a single ? in Tory manifesto. I

:02:26.:02:34.

have only got to page 66. It is quite broad brush and they are very

:02:35.:02:39.

open to challenge. For example, on the detail of a number of their

:02:40.:02:44.

flagship things. There is no detail on their immigration policy. They

:02:45.:02:49.

reiterate the ambition, but not how they are going to do that, without a

:02:50.:02:53.

massive increase in resource for Borders officials. We are at a time

:02:54.:03:01.

where average wages are lagging behind prices. And in work benefits

:03:02.:03:07.

remain frozen. I would have thought that the just-about-managings are

:03:08.:03:12.

people who are in work but they need some in work benefits to make life

:03:13.:03:15.

tolerable and be able to pay bills. Doesn't she has to do more for them?

:03:16.:03:24.

Maybe, but this whole manifesto was her inner circle saying, right, this

:03:25.:03:30.

is our chance to express our... It partly reads like a sort of

:03:31.:03:37.

philosophical essay at times. About the challenges, individualism

:03:38.:03:41.

against collectivism. Some of it reads quite well and is quite

:03:42.:03:47.

interesting, but in terms of its detail, Labour would never get away

:03:48.:03:52.

with it. They wouldn't be allowed to be so vague about where taxes are

:03:53.:03:56.

going to rise. We know there are going to be tax rises after the

:03:57.:04:00.

election, but we don't know where they will be. 100%, there will be

:04:01.:04:08.

tax rises. We know that they wanted a tax rise in the last budget, but

:04:09.:04:13.

they couldn't get it through because of the 2015 manifesto. Labour do

:04:14.:04:17.

offer a lot more detail. People could disagree with it, but there is

:04:18.:04:24.

a lot more detail. More to get your teeth into. About capital gains tax

:04:25.:04:29.

and the rises for better owners and so on. The SNP manifesto comes out

:04:30.:04:34.

this week, and the Greens and Sinn Fein. We think Ukip as well. There

:04:35.:04:41.

are more manifestos to come. The Lib Dems have already brought theirs

:04:42.:04:47.

out. Isn't the Liberal Democrat campaign in trouble? It doesn't seem

:04:48.:04:51.

to be doing particular the well in the polls, or at the local elections

:04:52.:04:56.

a few weeks ago. The Liberal Democrats are trying to fish in

:04:57.:05:01.

quite a small pool for votes. They are looking to get votes from those

:05:02.:05:07.

remainers who want to reverse the result, in effect. Tim Farron is

:05:08.:05:11.

promising a second referendum on the deal at the end of the negotiation

:05:12.:05:19.

process. And that is a hard sell. So those voting for remain on June 23

:05:20.:05:24.

are not low hanging fruit by any means? Polls suggesting that half of

:05:25.:05:30.

those want to reverse the result, so that is a feeling of about 20% on

:05:31.:05:35.

the Lib Dems, and they are getting slightly less than half at the

:05:36.:05:38.

moment, but there are not a huge amount of votes for them to get on

:05:39.:05:44.

that strategy. It doesn't feel like Tim Farron and the Lib Dems have

:05:45.:05:54.

promised enough. They are making a very serious case on cannabis use in

:05:55.:05:58.

a nightclub, but the optics of what they are discussing doesn't make

:05:59.:06:01.

them look like an anchor in a future coalition government that they would

:06:02.:06:05.

need to be. I wonder if we are seeing the re-emergence of the

:06:06.:06:09.

2-party system? And it is not the same two parties. In Scotland, the

:06:10.:06:14.

dynamics of this election seemed to be the Nationalists against the

:06:15.:06:18.

Conservatives. In England, if you look at what has happened to be Ukip

:06:19.:06:32.

vote, and what Sam was saying about the Lib Dems are struggling a bit to

:06:33.:06:36.

get some traction, it is overwhelmingly Labour and the

:06:37.:06:38.

Conservatives. A different 2-party system from Scotland, but a 2-party

:06:39.:06:40.

system. There are a number of different election is going on in

:06:41.:06:45.

parallel. In Scotland it is about whether you are unionist or not.

:06:46.:06:49.

Here, we have the collapse of the Ukip vote, which looks as though it

:06:50.:06:54.

is being redistributed in the Tories' favour. This is a unique

:06:55.:06:58.

election, and will not necessarily set the trend for elections to come.

:06:59.:07:05.

In the Tory manifesto, I spotted the fact that the fixed term Parliament

:07:06.:07:09.

act is going to be scrapped. That got almost no coverage! It turned

:07:10.:07:17.

out to be academic anyway, that it tells you something about how

:07:18.:07:21.

Theresa May is feeling, and she wants the control to call an

:07:22.:07:26.

election whenever it suits her. Re-emergence of the 2-party system,

:07:27.:07:30.

for this election or beyond? For this election, yes, but it shows the

:07:31.:07:39.

sort of robust strength of parties and their fragility. In other words,

:07:40.:07:43.

the Lib Dems haven't really recovered from the losses in the

:07:44.:07:47.

last general election, and are therefore not really seen as a

:07:48.:07:52.

robust vehicle to deliver Remain. If they were, they might be doing

:07:53.:07:57.

better. The Labour Party hasn't recovered in Scotland, and yet, if

:07:58.:08:02.

you look at the basic divide in England and Scotland and you see two

:08:03.:08:07.

parties battling it out, it is very, very hard for the smaller parties to

:08:08.:08:12.

break through and last. Many appear briefly on the political stage and

:08:13.:08:18.

then disappear again. The election had the ostensible goal of Brexit,

:08:19.:08:23.

but we haven't heard much about it in the campaign. Perhaps the Tories

:08:24.:08:28.

want to get back onto that. David Davis sounding quite tough this

:08:29.:08:32.

morning, the Brexit minister, saying there is no chance we will talk

:08:33.:08:38.

about 100 billion. And we have to have power in the negotiations on

:08:39.:08:41.

the free trade deal or what ever it is. I think they are keen to get the

:08:42.:08:46.

subject of the manifesto at this point, because it has not started

:08:47.:08:51.

too well. There is an irony that Theresa May ostensibly called the

:08:52.:08:56.

election because she needed a stronger hand in the Brexit

:08:57.:09:00.

negotiations, and there was an opportunity for the Lib Dems, with

:09:01.:09:03.

their unique offer of being the party that is absolutely against the

:09:04.:09:08.

outcome of the referendum, and offering another chance. There

:09:09.:09:14.

hasn't been much airtime on that particular pledge, because instead,

:09:15.:09:18.

this election has segued into being all about leadership. Theresa May's

:09:19.:09:24.

leadership, and looking again at the Tory manifesto, I was struck that

:09:25.:09:30.

she was saying that this is my plan for the future, not ABBA plan. Even

:09:31.:09:36.

when talking about social care, he manages to work in a bit about

:09:37.:09:43.

Theresa May and Brexit. And Boris Johnson this morning, an interview

:09:44.:09:47.

he gave on another political programme this morning, it was

:09:48.:09:51.

extraordinarily sycophantic for him. Isn't Theresa May wonderful. There

:09:52.:09:56.

is a man trying to secure his job in the Foreign Office! Will he succeed?

:09:57.:10:02.

I think she will leave him. Better in the tent than out. What did you

:10:03.:10:10.

make of David Davis' remarks? He was basically saying, we will walk away

:10:11.:10:15.

from the negotiating table if the Europeans slam a bill for 100

:10:16.:10:23.

billion euros. The point is that the Europeans will not slam a bill for

:10:24.:10:28.

100 billion euros on the negotiating table. That is the gross figure.

:10:29.:10:33.

There are all sorts of things that need to be taken into account. I

:10:34.:10:38.

imagine they will ask for something around the 50 or ?60 billion mark.

:10:39.:10:45.

It looks that they are trying to make it look like a concession when

:10:46.:10:49.

they do make their demands in order to soften the ground for what is

:10:50.:10:53.

going to happen just two weeks after general election day. He makes a

:10:54.:10:57.

reasonable point about having parallel talks. What they want to do

:10:58.:11:02.

straightaway is deal with the bill, Northern Ireland and citizens

:11:03.:11:07.

rights. All of those things are very complicated and interlinked issues,

:11:08.:11:10.

which cannot be dealt with in isolation. I wouldn't be surprised

:11:11.:11:14.

if we ended up with parallel talks, just to work out where we are going

:11:15.:11:18.

with Northern Ireland and the border. Steve, you can't work out

:11:19.:11:25.

what the Northern Ireland border will be, and EU citizens' writes

:11:26.:11:30.

here, until you work out what our relationship with the EU in the

:11:31.:11:34.

future will be. Indeed. The British government is under pressure to deal

:11:35.:11:39.

quickly with the border issue in Ireland, but feel they can't do so

:11:40.:11:44.

because when you have a tariff free arrangement outcome, or an

:11:45.:11:48.

arrangement that is much more protectionist, and that will

:11:49.:11:51.

determine partly the nature of the border. You cannot have a quick

:11:52.:11:55.

agreement on that front without knowing the rest of the deal. I

:11:56.:11:59.

think the negotiation will be complex. I am certain they want a

:12:00.:12:03.

deal rather than none, because this is no deal thing is part of the

:12:04.:12:09.

negotiation at this early stage. Sounding tough in the general

:12:10.:12:13.

election campaign also works electorally. But after the election,

:12:14.:12:18.

it will be a tough negotiation, beginning with this cost of Brexit.

:12:19.:12:24.

My understanding is that the government feels it's got to make

:12:25.:12:27.

the Europeans think they will not do a deal in order to get a deal. They

:12:28.:12:35.

don't want no deal. Absolutely not. And I'm sure it plays into the

:12:36.:12:39.

election. I'm sure the rhetoric will change when the election is over.

:12:40.:12:44.

That's all for today, thank you to all my guests.

:12:45.:12:46.

The Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at 12.00

:12:47.:12:49.

And tomorrow evening I will be starting my series of interviews

:12:50.:12:52.

with the party leaders - first up is the Prime

:12:53.:12:55.

Minister, Theresa May, that's at 7pm on BBC One.

:12:56.:12:57.

And I'll be back here at the same time on BBC One next Sunday.

:12:58.:13:00.

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:01.:13:49.

We've made great strides tackling HIV.

:13:50.:13:51.

Imagine if we could create a movement

:13:52.:13:54.

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