14/05/2017 Sunday Politics East Midlands


14/05/2017

Andrew Neil and Marie Ashby are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, housing minister Brandon Lewis and American political pollster Frank Luntz.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:38.:00:41.

Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes

:00:42.:00:45.

in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -

:00:46.:00:48.

Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax

:00:49.:00:55.

to fund public services, but will traders just

:00:56.:00:56.

Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,

:00:57.:01:00.

insists he can win this election - so which way will

:01:01.:01:03.

And in the East Midlands: group in Leeds.

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Will Jeremy Corbyn's policies prove a vote winner or vote loser

:01:10.:01:12.

And are young voters getting a raw deal from politicians?

:01:13.:01:16.

and here, what the parties are saying about tackling the air

:01:17.:01:19.

pollution problem in London. And with me, our own scientifically

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selected focus group of political pundits -

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they're not so much undecided as clueless -

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Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott They'll be tweeting

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throughout the programme. So, we've got two new

:01:35.:01:41.

policies this morning. Labour say they will introduce

:01:42.:01:43.

a financial transaction tax if they win the general election

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and what they're calling "the biggest crackdown on tax

:01:47.:01:48.

avoidance in the country's history". The Conservatives say they'll work

:01:49.:01:50.

with local authorities in England to build council houses

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with the right to buy. Theresa May says the policy

:01:54.:01:55.

"will help thousands of people get on the first rung

:01:56.:01:57.

of the housing ladder". Steve, what do you make of them? I

:01:58.:02:10.

have been conditioned after doing tax and spend debates in

:02:11.:02:14.

pre-election periods for many decades to treat policy is not as

:02:15.:02:18.

literal but as arguments. In other words if you look back to 2015 the

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Tory plan to wipe out the deficit was never going to happen and yet it

:02:24.:02:28.

framed and large event. In that sense the Robin Hood tax is a

:02:29.:02:31.

sensible move for Labour to make at this point because it is part of a

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narrative of reconfiguring taxation to be fair. Treating it as an

:02:37.:02:40.

argument rather than something that would happen in day one of Labour

:02:41.:02:47.

government is sensible. In terms of building houses Theresa May said

:02:48.:02:49.

right from the beginning when she was in Number Ten that there is a

:02:50.:02:53.

housing deficit in this country rather than the economic deficit

:02:54.:02:57.

George Osborne was focusing on, and this is an example of trying to get

:02:58.:03:01.

house-building going. It seems entirely sensible, not sure how it

:03:02.:03:05.

works with right to buy but again as framing of a 90 minute it makes

:03:06.:03:10.

sense. I disagree with Steve on one front which is how sensible Theresa

:03:11.:03:18.

May's policy is on the housing announcement. I think more broadly

:03:19.:03:22.

these two announcements have something in common which is that

:03:23.:03:26.

over the next 24 hours both will probably unravel in different ways.

:03:27.:03:32.

Ye of little faith! The Mayor of London has already said he doesn't

:03:33.:03:36.

agree with this, and when people see the actual impact of what looks like

:03:37.:03:42.

a populist tax will very potentially affect people's pensions, it might

:03:43.:03:48.

become a lot less popular. On the Tory housing plans, I think it is

:03:49.:03:52.

difficult to imagine how they are going to implement this huge, what

:03:53.:03:56.

looks like a huge land and property grab. Through compulsory purchase

:03:57.:04:02.

orders, which are not a simple instrument. They say they will

:04:03.:04:06.

change the law but really the idea of paying people below the market

:04:07.:04:09.

value for their assets is not something I can see sitting easily

:04:10.:04:14.

with Tory backbenchers or the Tories in the House of Lords. Tom. Both

:04:15.:04:21.

would appear superficially to be appealing to traditional left and

:04:22.:04:25.

traditional right bases. What is more Tory than right to buy, then

:04:26.:04:32.

councils sell on these houses, and Labour slapping a massive tax on the

:04:33.:04:40.

city. The Tories' plan, I would say look a bit deeper and all of the

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Tory narrative from the last six years which hasn't worked well is

:04:44.:04:47.

talking about the private sector increasing supply in the market. Now

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Mrs May is talking about the role for the state after all so this is

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the shift creeping in. On the Labour transaction tax, one of the most

:05:00.:05:04.

interesting things I heard in days was from Paul Mason, former BBC

:05:05.:05:10.

correspondent, now a cog in Easter extreme. On Newsnight he said don't

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worry about whether the Labour manifesto will add up, I'm promising

:05:15.:05:19.

it will, the bigger Tory attack line should be what on earth will be the

:05:20.:05:25.

macroeconomic effect of taking so much tax out of the system. Very

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well, we shall see. At least we have some policies to talk about.

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Now, on Tuesday Labour will launch its manifesto.

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But we've already got a pretty good idea of what's in it -

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that's because most of its contents were leaked to the media

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Labour has a variety of spending pledges including an extra

:05:42.:05:49.

?6 billion a year for the NHS, an additional ?8 billion for social

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care over the lifetime of the next parliament,

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as well as a ?250 billion in infrastructure over

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The party will support the renewal of the Trident submarine system,

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although any Prime Minister should be extremely cautious

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about its use, and the party will hold a strategic defence

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and security review immediately after the election.

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In terms of immigration, Labour will seek "reasonable

:06:12.:06:13.

management of migration", but it will not make "false

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Elsewhere, university tuition fees will be abolished,

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and the public sector pay cap, which limits pay rises

:06:23.:06:25.

for public sector workers to 1%, will be scrapped.

:06:26.:06:28.

The party also aims to renationalise the railways, the Royal Mail

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and the National Grid, as well as creating at least one

:06:32.:06:38.

A senior Labour backbencher described it to the Sunday Politics

:06:39.:06:43.

as a manifesto for a leadership who don't "give a toss

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about the wider public", and several other Labour candidates

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told us they thought it had been deliberately

:06:49.:06:50.

leaked by the leadership, with one suggesting

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the leak was intended to "bounce the National Executive"

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And we're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Business Secretary,

:06:57.:07:00.

Welcome to the programme. The draft manifesto proposed to renationalise

:07:01.:07:08.

the number of industry. You will wait for the franchises to run out

:07:09.:07:13.

rather than buy them out at the moment so can you confirm the

:07:14.:07:17.

railways will not be wholly nationalised until 2030, after three

:07:18.:07:22.

Labour governments, and Jeremy Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to

:07:23.:07:28.

comment on leaks, you will just have to be patient and wait to see what

:07:29.:07:35.

is in our manifesto. But you have already announced you will

:07:36.:07:38.

nationalise the railways, so tell me about it. We have discussed taking

:07:39.:07:43.

the franchises into public ownership as they expire, however the detail

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will be set out in the manifesto so I'm not prepared to go into detail

:07:48.:07:52.

until that policy is formally laid out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound

:07:53.:07:56.

very hopeful but let's carry on. You will also nationalise the National

:07:57.:08:03.

Grid, it has a market capitalisation of ?40 billion, why do you want to

:08:04.:08:09.

nationalise that? Again, I'm not going to speculate on leaks, you

:08:10.:08:13.

will just have to be patient. But you said you will nationalise the

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National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks have suggested but you will just

:08:21.:08:23.

have to wait and see what the final manifesto states on that one. So is

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it a waste of time me asking you how you will pay for something that

:08:29.:08:32.

costs 40 billion? Be patient, just couple of days to go, but what I

:08:33.:08:38.

would say is there is growing pressure from the public to reform

:08:39.:08:43.

the utilities sector. The Competition and Markets Authority

:08:44.:08:46.

stated in 2015 that bill payers were paying over till debt -- ?2 billion

:08:47.:08:51.

in excess of what they should be paying so there is a clear need for

:08:52.:08:57.

reform. The bills we get are from the energy companies, you are not

:08:58.:09:01.

going to nationalise them, you are going to nationalise the

:09:02.:09:04.

distribution company and I wondered what is the case for nationalising

:09:05.:09:10.

the distribution company? As I said, our full plans will be set out on

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Tuesday. In relation to the big six energy companies, we know in recent

:09:16.:09:18.

years they have been overcharging customers... There's no point in

:09:19.:09:25.

answering questions I am not asking. I am asking what is the case for

:09:26.:09:31.

nationalising the National Grid? There is a case for reforming the

:09:32.:09:34.

energy sector as a whole and that looks at the activities of the big

:09:35.:09:39.

six companies and it will look at other aspects too. You will have to

:09:40.:09:44.

be patient and wait until Tuesday. What about the Royal Mail? Again,

:09:45.:09:51.

you will have to wait until Tuesday. Why can't you just be honest with

:09:52.:09:55.

the British voter? We know you are going to do this and you have a duty

:09:56.:10:02.

to explain. I'm not even arguing whether it is right or wrong. The

:10:03.:10:08.

Royal Mail was sold off and we know it was sold under value and British

:10:09.:10:12.

taxpayers have a reason to feel aggrieved about that. There is a

:10:13.:10:16.

long-term strategy that would ensure the Royal Mail was classified as a

:10:17.:10:20.

key piece of infrastructure but the details of that will be set out in

:10:21.:10:26.

our manifesto because we want to ensure businesses and households

:10:27.:10:28.

ensure the best quality of service when it comes to their postal

:10:29.:10:34.

providers. You plan to borrow an extra 25 billion per year, John

:10:35.:10:38.

McDonnell has already announced this, on public investment, on top

:10:39.:10:43.

of the around 50 billion already being planned for investment. You

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will borrow it all so that means, if you can confirm, that many years

:10:49.:10:56.

after the crash by 2021, Labour government would still be borrowing

:10:57.:11:02.

75 billion a year. Is that correct? We have set out ?250 billion of

:11:03.:11:09.

capital investment, and ?250 billion for a national investment bank. Our

:11:10.:11:12.

financial and fiscal rules dictate we will leave the Government in a

:11:13.:11:16.

state of less debt than we found it at the start of the parliament so we

:11:17.:11:19.

won't increase the national debt at the end of our Parliamentary term.

:11:20.:11:26.

How can you do that if by 2021 you will still be borrowing around 75

:11:27.:11:31.

billion a year, which is more than we borrow at the moment? The 500

:11:32.:11:37.

billion figure is set out over a period of ten years, it's a figure

:11:38.:11:41.

that has been suggested by Peter Helm from Oxford University as a

:11:42.:11:45.

figure that is necessary to bring us in line with other industrial

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competitors. Similar figures have been suggested by groups such as the

:11:50.:11:57.

CBI. By the way I have not included all 500 billion, just the 250

:11:58.:12:01.

billion on public spending, not the extra money. You talk about the

:12:02.:12:06.

fiscal rules. The draft manifesto said you will leave debt as a

:12:07.:12:11.

proportion of trend GDP law at the end of each parliament, you have

:12:12.:12:17.

just said a version of that. What is trend GDP? In clear terms we will

:12:18.:12:21.

ensure the debt we acquire will be reduced by the end of the

:12:22.:12:25.

parliament. We won't leave the Government finances in a worse state

:12:26.:12:33.

than we found them. OK, but what is trend GDP? Our rule is we will

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ensure public sector net debt is less than we found it when we came

:12:38.:12:41.

to power in Government on June the 8th. But that is not what your draft

:12:42.:12:49.

manifesto says. I'm not going to comment on leaks, you are just going

:12:50.:12:53.

to have to wait until Tuesday to look at the fine detail and perhaps

:12:54.:12:58.

we will have another chat then. You have published your plans for

:12:59.:13:01.

corporation tax and you will increase it by a third and your

:13:02.:13:06.

predictions assumed that will get an extra 20 billion a year by the end

:13:07.:13:10.

of the parliament. But that assumes the companies don't change their

:13:11.:13:15.

behaviour, that they move money around, they leave the country or

:13:16.:13:19.

they generate smaller profits. Is that realistic? You are right to

:13:20.:13:25.

make that point and you will see when we set out our policies and

:13:26.:13:28.

costings in the manifesto that we haven't spent all of the tax take.

:13:29.:13:34.

We have allowed for different differentials and potential changes

:13:35.:13:37.

in market activity because that would be approved and direction to

:13:38.:13:41.

take. But corporation tax is allowed to be cut in France and the United

:13:42.:13:49.

States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin. Many companies based in Britain are

:13:50.:13:52.

already wondering whether they should relocate because of Brexit,

:13:53.:13:58.

if you increase this tax by a third couldn't that clinch it for a number

:13:59.:14:03.

of them? No, we will still be one of the lowest corporation tax rate in

:14:04.:14:08.

the G7. Let's look at what's important for business. Cutting

:14:09.:14:12.

corporation tax in itself doesn't improve productivity, or business

:14:13.:14:17.

investment and there's no suggestion cutting corporation tax in recent

:14:18.:14:20.

years has achieved that. Businesses need an investment in tools in

:14:21.:14:26.

things they need to thrive and prosper, they also need to reduce

:14:27.:14:30.

the burden at the lower end of the tax scale, before we get to the

:14:31.:14:35.

Prophet stage. One key example is business rates. We have made the

:14:36.:14:42.

proposal to government to in -- exclude machinery so businesses can

:14:43.:14:46.

invest and grow operations in the future but the Government refused.

:14:47.:14:52.

Corporation tax has been cut since 2010. When it was 28% it brought in

:14:53.:15:03.

?43 billion a year. Now it is down to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a

:15:04.:15:09.

year. By cutting it in the last year, it brought in 21% more, so

:15:10.:15:16.

what is the problem? It might have brought in more money, but has it

:15:17.:15:20.

increased business investment in the long term. It is not just about

:15:21.:15:25.

cutting corporation tax, but it is on the ability of businesses to

:15:26.:15:29.

thrive and prosper. Business investment in the UK is below are

:15:30.:15:35.

industrial competitors. Wages are stagnating which doesn't indicate

:15:36.:15:42.

businesses are not doing well. Let me get it right, you are arguing if

:15:43.:15:47.

we increase business tax by a third, that will increase investment? I am

:15:48.:15:54.

not saying that. You just did. Know I didn't, I said reducing business

:15:55.:16:01.

tax isn't enough, you have to invest in the things businesses need to

:16:02.:16:05.

thrive and prosper. You have also got to lessen the burden on

:16:06.:16:17.

business. You have announced a financial transaction tax. Your own

:16:18.:16:21.

labour Mayor of London said he has vowed to fight it. He said I do not

:16:22.:16:26.

want a unilateral tax on business in our city, so why are you proceeding

:16:27.:16:32.

with it? This isn't a new initiative, there is a growing

:16:33.:16:35.

global pressure to make sure we have fairness in the financial sector.

:16:36.:16:39.

Ordinary British people are paying for our banking crisis they didn't

:16:40.:16:45.

cause. Another important point, stamp duty reserve tax was brought

:16:46.:16:51.

in in the 1600 and there have been little reforms. The sector has

:16:52.:16:54.

changed and we have do provide changes to the system for that

:16:55.:16:59.

change. High-frequency trading where we have a state of affairs where a

:17:00.:17:04.

lot of shares are traded on computers within milliseconds. We

:17:05.:17:08.

need a tax system that keeps up with that. What happens if they move the

:17:09.:17:15.

computers to another country? Emily Thornaby said this morning, other

:17:16.:17:20.

countries had already introduced a financial transaction tax, what

:17:21.:17:23.

other countries have done that? There are ten countries looking at

:17:24.:17:31.

introducing a transaction tax. Which ones have done it so far? They will

:17:32.:17:39.

be later announcing a final package, going through the finer detail at

:17:40.:17:43.

the moment. But the European Commission tried to get this done in

:17:44.:17:47.

2011 and it still hasn't happened in any of these countries. But you are

:17:48.:17:52.

going to go ahead unilaterally and risk these businesses, which

:17:53.:17:57.

generate a lot of money, moving to other jurisdictions. There is not a

:17:58.:18:01.

significant risk of that happening. The stamp duty reserve tax is levied

:18:02.:18:13.

at either where the person or company is domiciled or where the

:18:14.:18:17.

instrument is issued rather than worth the transaction takes place.

:18:18.:18:22.

This tax in itself is not enough to make people leave this country in

:18:23.:18:26.

terms of financial services because there is more to keep these

:18:27.:18:30.

businesses here in terms of the investment we are making, the

:18:31.:18:34.

economy that Labour will build, in terms of productivity improvement we

:18:35.:18:38.

will see. Thank you very much, Rebecca Long-Bailey.

:18:39.:18:43.

And listening to that was the Home Office Minister, Brandon Lewis.

:18:44.:18:48.

Over the years, you have got corporation tax by 20%, it is lower

:18:49.:18:54.

than international standards, so why are so many global companies who

:18:55.:19:02.

make money out of Great Britain, still not paying 20%? It is one of

:19:03.:19:06.

the problems with the point Labour were making and Rebecca could not

:19:07.:19:09.

answer, these companies can move around the world. One of the

:19:10.:19:16.

important things is having a low tax economy but these businesses, it

:19:17.:19:19.

encourages them to come at a rate they are prepared to pay. People may

:19:20.:19:25.

say they are right, if they were paying 19, 20% incorporation tax.

:19:26.:19:30.

But they are not. Google runs a multi-million pound corporation and

:19:31.:19:39.

did not pay anywhere near 20%. There are companies that are trading

:19:40.:19:43.

internationally and that is why we have to get this work done with our

:19:44.:19:52.

partners around the world. Has there been an improvement? It is more than

:19:53.:19:55.

they were paying before. Whether it is Google or any other company,

:19:56.:20:00.

alongside them being here, apart from the tax they pay, it is the

:20:01.:20:05.

people they employ. The deal was, if you cut the business tax, the

:20:06.:20:09.

corporation tax on profits, we would get more companies coming here and

:20:10.:20:14.

more companies paying their tax. It seems it doesn't matter how low, a

:20:15.:20:19.

number of companies just pay a derisory amount and you haven't been

:20:20.:20:25.

able to change that. As you outlined, the income taken from the

:20:26.:20:27.

changing corporation tax has gone up. That is from established British

:20:28.:20:35.

companies, not from these international companies. It is

:20:36.:20:38.

because more companies are coming here and paying tax. That is a good

:20:39.:20:43.

thing. There is always more to do and that is why we want to crack

:20:44.:20:48.

down. In the last few weeks in the Finnish Parliament, Labour refused

:20:49.:20:52.

to put to another ?8.7 billion of tax take we could have got by

:20:53.:20:58.

cracking down further. You claim to have made great progress on cracking

:20:59.:21:03.

down on people and companies to pay the tax they should. But the tax gap

:21:04.:21:08.

is the difference between what HMRC takes in and what it should take in.

:21:09.:21:14.

It has barely moved in five years, so where is the progress? He have

:21:15.:21:20.

brought in 150 billion more where we have cracked down on those tax

:21:21.:21:24.

schemes. The gap is still the same as it was five years ago. It's gone

:21:25.:21:34.

from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down. The Prime Minister and the

:21:35.:21:37.

Chancellor said they want to continue work on to get more money

:21:38.:21:41.

on these companies while still having a competitive rate to

:21:42.:21:47.

encourage these companies. While big business and the wealthy continue to

:21:48.:21:53.

prosper, the Office for Budget Responsibility tell us those on

:21:54.:21:55.

average earnings in this country will be earning less in real terms

:21:56.:22:01.

by 2021 than they did in 2008. How can that be fair? I don't see it

:22:02.:22:07.

that way. I haven't seen the figures you have got. What I can say to you,

:22:08.:22:12.

Andrew, we have made sure the minimum wage has gone up, the actual

:22:13.:22:17.

income tax people pay has gone down. So in their pocket, real terms,

:22:18.:22:26.

people have more money. You are the self-styled party of work. We keep

:22:27.:22:28.

emphasising work. Under your government you can work for 13 years

:22:29.:22:32.

and still not earn any more at the end of it, and you did at the start.

:22:33.:22:39.

Where is the reward for effort in that? I have not seen those figures.

:22:40.:22:45.

There are 2.8 million more people, more jobs in economy than there was.

:22:46.:22:51.

1000 jobs every day and people are working and developing through their

:22:52.:22:55.

careers. This is what I thought was odd in what Rebecca was saying,

:22:56.:22:58.

investing in people is what the apprenticeship levy is about,

:22:59.:23:03.

companies are investing their works force to take more opportunities

:23:04.:23:08.

that there. We are talking about fairness, politicians talk about

:23:09.:23:12.

hard-working people and we know the average earnings are no higher than

:23:13.:23:16.

they were in 2008. We know the pay and bonuses of senior executives

:23:17.:23:21.

have continued to grow and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has

:23:22.:23:25.

shown 3 million of the poorest households will lose an average of

:23:26.:23:30.

?2500 a year in the next Parliament, benefits frozen, further sanctions

:23:31.:23:36.

kick in. 3 million of the poorest losing 2500. Under the Tories, one

:23:37.:23:41.

law for the rich and another for the poor. It is quite wrong. First of

:23:42.:23:47.

all, we have got to be fair to the taxpayer who is funding the welfare

:23:48.:23:51.

and benefit system. Which is why the welfare was right. Get more people

:23:52.:23:57.

in work and then it is important to get more people upscaling. As that

:23:58.:24:04.

allowance rises, people have more of the money they earn in their pocket

:24:05.:24:09.

to be able to use in the economy. People will be worse off. 2500,

:24:10.:24:15.

among the poorest already. They will have more money in their pocket as

:24:16.:24:21.

we increase the allowance before people pay tax. We have seen

:24:22.:24:28.

millions of people coming out of tax altogether. The reason I ask these

:24:29.:24:31.

questions, you and the Prime Minister go on and on about the just

:24:32.:24:36.

about managing classes. I am talking about the just about managing and

:24:37.:24:40.

below that. It is all talk, you haven't done anything for them. We

:24:41.:24:45.

have made sure they have an increasing minimum wage, it has gone

:24:46.:24:49.

up more under us than any other previous government. Their wages

:24:50.:24:56.

will be still lower in real terms. Let me come on to this plan for

:24:57.:25:00.

housing. We have announced a new plan to increase affordable housing,

:25:01.:25:05.

social housing, some council housing and social housing built by the

:25:06.:25:10.

associations. How much money is behind this? It is part of the 1.4

:25:11.:25:14.

billion announced in the Autumn Statement. How many homes will you

:25:15.:25:21.

get for 1.4 billion? That depends on the negotiations with local

:25:22.:25:24.

authorities. It is local authorities, who know the area best.

:25:25.:25:32.

I will not put a number on that. 1.4 billion, if you price the house at

:25:33.:25:35.

100,000, which is very low, particularly for the South, back at

:25:36.:25:41.

you 14,000 new homes. That is it. What we have seen before, how the

:25:42.:25:46.

local government can leveraged to build thousands more homes. That is

:25:47.:25:50.

what we want to see across the country. It is not just about the

:25:51.:25:54.

money, for a lot of local authorities it is about the

:25:55.:25:57.

expertise and knowledge on how to do this. That is why support from the

:25:58.:26:03.

housing communities minister will help. What is the timescale, how

:26:04.:26:09.

many more affordable homes will be built? I will not put a number on

:26:10.:26:15.

it. You announced it today, so you cannot tell me how many more or what

:26:16.:26:20.

the target is? It is a matter of working with the local authorities

:26:21.:26:23.

who know what their local needs are, what land they have got available.

:26:24.:26:27.

What we saw through the local elections with the Metro mayors,

:26:28.:26:31.

they want to deliver in their areas, whether it is the West of England,

:26:32.:26:35.

the north-east, Liverpool, Manchester and we want to work with

:26:36.:26:40.

them. You have said variations of this for the past seven years and I

:26:41.:26:44.

want some credibility. When you cannot tell us how much money, what

:26:45.:26:49.

the target and timescale is, and this government, under which

:26:50.:26:53.

affordable house building has fallen to a 24 year low. 1.2 million

:26:54.:26:58.

families are on waiting lists for social housing to rent. That is your

:26:59.:27:04.

record. Why should we believe a word you say? This is different to what

:27:05.:27:08.

we have been doing over the last two years. We want to develop and have a

:27:09.:27:13.

strong and stable economy that can sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This

:27:14.:27:20.

is important. In 2010, we inherited the lowest level of house building,

:27:21.:27:27.

75,000 new homes. That is about 189,000 over the last four years.

:27:28.:27:32.

That is a big step forward after the crash, getting people back into the

:27:33.:27:35.

industry. More first-time buyers onto the market. Final question, in

:27:36.:27:47.

2010, 2011, your first year in government, there were 60,000

:27:48.:27:51.

affordable homes built. May not be enough, but last day it was 30 2000.

:27:52.:27:59.

So why should we trust anything you say about this? On housing, we have

:28:00.:28:07.

delivered. We have delivered more social housing. Double what Labour

:28:08.:28:12.

did in 13 years, in just five years. This is what this policy is about,

:28:13.:28:16.

working with local authorities to deliver more homes to people in

:28:17.:28:17.

their local areas. Thank you. Now, they have a deficit

:28:18.:28:21.

of between 15 and 20% in the polls, but Jeremy Corbyn and those

:28:22.:28:25.

around him insist Labour can win. If the polls are right they've got

:28:26.:28:27.

three and half weeks to change voters' minds and persuade those

:28:28.:28:31.

fabled undecided voters We enlisted the polling organisation

:28:32.:28:32.

YouGov to help us find out how the performance of party leaders

:28:33.:28:37.

will affect behaviour Leeds, a city of three quarters

:28:38.:28:39.

of a million people, eight Parliamentary seats and home

:28:40.:28:49.

to our very own focus group. Our panel was recruited

:28:50.:28:54.

from a variety of backgrounds and the majority say they haven't

:28:55.:28:57.

decided who to vote for yet. Watching behind the glass,

:28:58.:29:00.

two experts on different sides Giles Cunningham, who headed up

:29:01.:29:03.

political press at Downing Street under David Cameron

:29:04.:29:10.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter, under David Cameron

:29:11.:29:16.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter, I think Theresa May sees herself

:29:17.:29:18.

as a pound shop Thatcher. Milliband's policies but when it

:29:19.:29:22.

came about who you want,

:29:23.:29:42.

if you wake up on maybe a 2015, We found in a couple of focus

:29:43.:29:46.

groups, people saying we'd be quite relieved,

:29:47.:29:50.

even though some of those same people have been saying we quite

:29:51.:29:52.

like the Labour policies. I think the fact that Corbyn's

:29:53.:29:55.

going so hard on his values, this is a really progressive

:29:56.:29:59.

manifesto, they live But I think that's a new challenge,

:30:00.:30:01.

that wasn't there in 2015. Is there anyone here that

:30:02.:30:05.

you don't recognise? After a little warm up,

:30:06.:30:07.

the first exercise, recognising I think it's nice to have a strong

:30:08.:30:09.

woman in politics, I do. But I've got to say,

:30:10.:30:16.

when she comes on the news, I kind of do think,

:30:17.:30:19.

here we go again. Tell me about Tim Farron, what

:30:20.:30:21.

are your impressions of Tim Farron? It isn't going to do anything,

:30:22.:30:24.

it isn't going to change anything. You'll be surprised to hear it's

:30:25.:30:28.

actually the Greens. Strong and stable leadership

:30:29.:30:37.

in the national interest. Yes, Team May, it's

:30:38.:30:50.

the British equivalent of make What do we think about this one

:30:51.:30:54.

for the many and not the few? It's not quite as bad

:30:55.:31:04.

as strong and stable, but it will probably get

:31:05.:31:06.

on our nerves after a while. We must seize that chance today

:31:07.:31:09.

and every day until June the 8th. But that's not quite my

:31:10.:31:19.

question, my question is, if you are Prime Minister,

:31:20.:31:27.

we will leave, come hell or high water, whatever is on the table

:31:28.:31:30.

at the end of the negotiations? If we win the election,

:31:31.:31:33.

we'll get a good deal with Europe. Assertive and in control

:31:34.:31:36.

and he felt comfortable But the second one, I thought

:31:37.:31:38.

he was very hesitant. I thought he was kind of,

:31:39.:31:43.

hovering around, skirting around and that's the second

:31:44.:31:52.

time I've seen a similar interview with the question

:31:53.:31:54.

being asked regarding Brexit. I don't think I'd have

:31:55.:31:56.

any confidence with him You think you are going up

:31:57.:31:58.

against some quite strong people, how are you going to stand

:31:59.:32:02.

up for us? When you are in negotiations,

:32:03.:32:04.

you need to be tough. And actually is right

:32:05.:32:09.

to be tough sometimes, particularly when you are doing

:32:10.:32:11.

something for the country. There's a reason for talking

:32:12.:32:13.

about strong and stable leadership. It's about the future

:32:14.:32:15.

of the country, it's It's just that people kind of listen

:32:16.:32:17.

to that kind of thing and think Both on The One Show

:32:18.:32:22.

and in the news. She attracts the public better

:32:23.:32:27.

than what Corbyn does. She didn't answer the question

:32:28.:32:34.

in a more articular way than Corbyn Imagine that Theresa

:32:35.:32:36.

May is an animal. So, in your minds,

:32:37.:32:43.

what animal is coming to mind I've done a Pekinese because I think

:32:44.:32:46.

she's all bark and no bite. Alpaca because she's

:32:47.:33:00.

superior looking and woolly I don't think his policies

:33:01.:33:06.

are for the modern, real world. A mouse because they are weak

:33:07.:33:22.

and they can be easily bullied, but also they can catch

:33:23.:33:25.

you by surprise if you're What do you take away

:33:26.:33:27.

from what you saw then, and what message would you send back

:33:28.:33:35.

to the Tories now? I think what came over is people see

:33:36.:33:38.

Theresa May as a strong politician, not everyone likes her,

:33:39.:33:41.

but you don't need to be liked to be elected,

:33:42.:33:44.

because ultimately it's about who do you trust with your future

:33:45.:33:46.

and your security. I think what I also take out

:33:47.:33:48.

of that focus group, was it was a group of floating

:33:49.:33:51.

voters, there was no huge appetite for the Lib Dems and there was no

:33:52.:33:54.

huge appetite for Ukip. So my messaged back to CCHQ

:33:55.:33:57.

would be stick to the plan. I thought the response

:33:58.:34:00.

to the manifesto was excellent. It's clear that people aren't

:34:01.:34:03.

particularly keen on Theresa May, There are some associations with her

:34:04.:34:05.

about strength and stability, which is exactly what the Tory party

:34:06.:34:10.

want of course, but they are not positive and nobody thinks

:34:11.:34:14.

that she has a vision So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn,

:34:15.:34:16.

what I'd say to the Labour Party is, they need to really emphasise

:34:17.:34:22.

the manifesto in Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform

:34:23.:34:24.

out of his skin and I think he has to reemphasise those

:34:25.:34:31.

characteristics which may be have come to the fore may be

:34:32.:34:33.

over the last 12 months, resilience, strength and the fact

:34:34.:34:36.

that he's come this far, why not take that final step and go

:34:37.:34:38.

into ten Downing Street? We're joined now by the American

:34:39.:34:41.

political consultant For the sake of this discussion,

:34:42.:34:48.

assume the polls at the moment are broadly right, is there any hope for

:34:49.:34:55.

Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters? Know, and this is a very serious

:34:56.:35:01.

collection with serious consequences to who wins. Nobody cares whether

:35:02.:35:05.

you can draw and what animal they represent, they want to know where

:35:06.:35:09.

they stand, and I felt that was frivolous. I come to Britain to

:35:10.:35:14.

watch elections because I learned from here. Your elections are more

:35:15.:35:18.

substantial, more serious, more policy and less about personality

:35:19.:35:22.

and that peace was only about personality. That's partly because

:35:23.:35:27.

Mrs May has decided to make this a presidential election. You can see

:35:28.:35:37.

on the posters it is all Team May. I agree with that, and in her language

:35:38.:35:45.

she says not everyone benefits from a Conservative government, I don't

:35:46.:35:49.

see how using anything Republicans have used in the past. In fact her

:35:50.:35:53.

campaign is more of a centrist Democrats but it is a smart strategy

:35:54.:35:58.

because it pushes Corbyn further to the left. Of course you said Hillary

:35:59.:36:03.

Clinton have won. On election night the polling was so bad in America,

:36:04.:36:08.

the exit polls that were done, the BBC told America she had won. No, I

:36:09.:36:14.

was anchoring the programme that night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC

:36:15.:36:22.

had the same numbers. Yes, but we did not say she had won, I can

:36:23.:36:27.

assure you of that. Because of people like you we thought she had

:36:28.:36:32.

but we didn't broadcast it. That was a smart approach. My point is other

:36:33.:36:39.

than teasing you, maybe there is hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you

:36:40.:36:44.

will have one of the lowest turnout in modern history and I think Labour

:36:45.:36:50.

will fall to one of the lowest percentages, not percentage of

:36:51.:36:53.

number of seats they have had, and this will be a matter of

:36:54.:36:57.

soul-searching for both political parties. What you do with a sizeable

:36:58.:37:03.

majority, and she has a responsibility to tell the British

:37:04.:37:06.

people exactly what happens as she moves forward. He and Labour will

:37:07.:37:12.

have to take a look at whether they still represent a significant slice

:37:13.:37:17.

of the British population. Do you see a realignment in British

:37:18.:37:21.

politics taking place? I see a crumbling of the left and yet there

:37:22.:37:25.

is still a significant percentage of the British population that once

:37:26.:37:29.

someone who is centre-left. And they like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies.

:37:30.:37:38.

I'm listening to Michael foot. I went to school here in the 1980s and

:37:39.:37:41.

I feel like I'm watching the Labour Party of 35 years ago, in a

:37:42.:37:44.

population that wants to focus on the future, not the past. Thank you.

:37:45.:37:51.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:52.:37:53.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:54.:37:55.

Do young people hold the key to the election

:37:56.:38:10.

You've got to realise that the young people are the ones that are at very

:38:11.:38:16.

rarely represented by the political parties.

:38:17.:38:19.

And it will be eyes down in this East Midlands

:38:20.:38:25.

constituency come polling day, with a difference of just 41 votes

:38:26.:38:28.

Derby North has the smallest majority in the country.

:38:29.:38:33.

My guests this week, Jessica Lee, was a Conservative MP for Erewash

:38:34.:38:37.

for five years before standing down in 2015 and Graham Allen,

:38:38.:38:41.

has been a Labour MP for Nottingham North for 30

:38:42.:38:45.

years, but is stepping down at this election.

:38:46.:38:47.

We'll also be joined by the Lib Dems and the Greens.

:38:48.:38:50.

Welcome to you both and first let's get your reaction to some of this

:38:51.:38:53.

The Conservative's big announcement is the promise

:38:54.:38:59.

With hundreds of millions of pounds invested,

:39:00.:39:04.

but we need 20,000 homes a year in the East Midlands alone.

:39:05.:39:15.

I think it's a fantastic headline this morning. I'm glad it's come up

:39:16.:39:21.

this early in the election campaign as well, because it has to be a

:39:22.:39:26.

priority. It's not just the homes that are needed and going to bring

:39:27.:39:30.

so much future for people, but it's the job and opportunities that go

:39:31.:39:33.

with that. In the East Midlands, we have a proud history of building

:39:34.:39:38.

apprenticeships in Syria. Think there will be opportunities in

:39:39.:39:44.

wholesale, not just for the families and people moving in, but for

:39:45.:39:51.

businesses. Michael Farren was being very big about whether that would

:39:52.:39:54.

actually be extra cash for this policy. You'll know more than I do

:39:55.:40:03.

at this stage. People are interested in costings. We have seen when

:40:04.:40:06.

Labour got into difficulty with Diane Abbott. I think people do want

:40:07.:40:12.

to know. I think the emphasis will be on the Conservatives to explain

:40:13.:40:15.

how this is going to be funded and I hope they are able to set that as

:40:16.:40:20.

possible. The manifestos will be out next week.

:40:21.:40:23.

It's another example though of the Conservatives moving

:40:24.:40:29.

You think they'd have the numbers and know what they're doing on

:40:30.:40:35.

council housing after seven years in Government. They're making something

:40:36.:40:39.

up, probably because Labour was very clear in its announcement that there

:40:40.:40:45.

would be 100,000 extra new councils. Frankly, central Government, whether

:40:46.:40:48.

it's Labour or Conservative telling us what we have to do locally, you

:40:49.:40:52.

have to listen to people locally. There are places where we can

:40:53.:40:54.

council housing. They're clearly targeting Labour

:40:55.:40:56.

voters and that could cause Labourer boaters are not stupid,

:40:57.:41:06.

they can see through this. I think what Labour reporters while we think

:41:07.:41:10.

that the country is that they should leave it to the localities. My

:41:11.:41:15.

constituency that I am now leaving doesn't need any more housing. It's

:41:16.:41:20.

90% more housing already. We need more balanced community. Other areas

:41:21.:41:24.

can take more housing. We've had to be localities and not have Labour or

:41:25.:41:28.

Conservative telling us what to do from Whitehall.

:41:29.:41:29.

One big question that could have a major influence on this

:41:30.:41:32.

election is how many young people will turn out to vote.

:41:33.:41:34.

There's been growing concern at their lack

:41:35.:41:36.

of engagement in politics, but tens of thousands have

:41:37.:41:38.

rushed to register in time for the general election.

:41:39.:41:40.

Here's our political editor, Tony Roe.

:41:41.:41:42.

On Friday morning, know that you are to blame for what happened.

:41:43.:41:45.

A year ago, this student was in Ashby

:41:46.:41:47.

telling Boris Johnson what he thought about Brexit.

:41:48.:41:49.

At 17, Will Taylor had no other say than that.

:41:50.:41:52.

But now he's old enough to vote in his first general election.

:41:53.:41:58.

I'm lucky I've been brought up in a background where politics

:41:59.:42:01.

But I don't think in everyone's house...

:42:02.:42:04.

I think in-school current affairs maybe should be on

:42:05.:42:09.

There is concern from the Electoral Commission that

:42:10.:42:12.

three out of ten 18 to 24-year-olds are not

:42:13.:42:14.

yet registered to vote and

:42:15.:42:15.

many may have fallen off the electoral rolls

:42:16.:42:18.

since the system was changed to meet each individual register.

:42:19.:42:23.

Since last summer's EU referendum, three quarters of a

:42:24.:42:26.

There is concern not enough of them have

:42:27.:42:31.

And they've only got one week left to do it.

:42:32.:42:40.

What we'll do is we'll head up into the polling

:42:41.:42:42.

There have always been young political activists.

:42:43.:42:45.

These University of Leicester students are

:42:46.:42:46.

giving up their spare time to campaign for the Conservatives.

:42:47.:42:49.

Whether it's just reading the news occasionally,

:42:50.:42:51.

or seeing the news on Twitter in the morning,

:42:52.:42:53.

it's vital that young people get involved in politics.

:42:54.:42:55.

It's just important to young people as it is to all age

:42:56.:42:58.

Them being the youngest, they are going to love the most.

:42:59.:43:02.

So they need to be involved in politics,

:43:03.:43:05.

Out on the streets of Nottingham, it's young Labour activists and

:43:06.:43:09.

the polls show new voters are more likely to vote Labour.

:43:10.:43:12.

The party see getting that support as a way of

:43:13.:43:14.

Even if you're not going to vote for a party

:43:15.:43:17.

that I would support, it still critical that

:43:18.:43:19.

And actually, you know, the more young people are involved, all

:43:20.:43:23.

parties, not just Labour, all parties will have to listen to them

:43:24.:43:26.

and maybe reconsider some of their policies and target some

:43:27.:43:30.

of those policies to win those younger voters over.

:43:31.:43:33.

You know you're getting old when politicians look younger.

:43:34.:43:35.

In Mansfield, Katie Atherton is the director of the growing media

:43:36.:43:38.

She's been a Labour district councillor since early 20s,

:43:39.:43:41.

Politicians, she says, get too much of use.

:43:42.:43:50.

People don't want to say anything wrong or

:43:51.:43:53.

And if you kind of mail your colours to the flag and the, "Well, do you

:43:54.:43:58.

know what, I'm from this party, I'm from this party and that's me."

:43:59.:44:02.

You are 100% going to get people that

:44:03.:44:03.

So, what about those who don't engage with politics

:44:04.:44:07.

We asked the Prime Minister, who was campaigning this

:44:08.:44:10.

Opportunities that they've got for the future, our

:44:11.:44:13.

future prosperity, depend on what happens over

:44:14.:44:14.

That is about getting Brexit right, it's also about taking the country

:44:15.:44:18.

So, I would say this is an important election, because it

:44:19.:44:22.

It matters for them because it's about

:44:23.:44:25.

The priorities for each generation are likely to be

:44:26.:44:28.

different and will affect how they vote.

:44:29.:44:33.

Labour offer things for young people.

:44:34.:44:35.

They don't offer much and people do see it the lesser of

:44:36.:44:37.

two evils, but I struggle to find, and I have looked, I struggle to

:44:38.:44:42.

find what Conservatives do offer for young people.

:44:43.:44:44.

Well, it's the party of aspiration, the party of bettering

:44:45.:44:47.

yourself, the party of low tax and the

:44:48.:44:49.

Of course, being registered to vote is one

:44:50.:44:55.

thing, another is connecting with young people enough to get them out

:44:56.:44:58.

of their homes to the polling stations.

:44:59.:45:02.

We're joined now by Mathew Hulbert a Liberal Democrat in

:45:03.:45:04.

Leicestershire, who's the chair of the party's Friends

:45:05.:45:06.

We've spoken to young people who voted Lib Dem

:45:07.:45:15.

in 2010 and wouldn't vote again due to your infamous U-turn on tuition

:45:16.:45:19.

fees when you were part of the coalition Government.

:45:20.:45:20.

That's still your biggest problem in getting them

:45:21.:45:22.

It is and it wasn't our finest hour. I voted against the rising in

:45:23.:45:34.

the other way and the party did that the other way and the party did that

:45:35.:45:38.

in Coalition. All we can do now is try and say to young people, yes,

:45:39.:45:44.

that was a mistake, I admit it was a mistake, but the future now is all

:45:45.:45:49.

about Brexit and many young people are against Brexit and the Liberal

:45:50.:45:52.

Democrats are the only mainstream party that are fundamentally against

:45:53.:45:56.

Brexit, that the we accept the original result, but that set us off

:45:57.:46:01.

on a direction of travel, we don't know from the Prime Minister rarely

:46:02.:46:05.

any details in terms of this negotiation that she's going to do

:46:06.:46:10.

with the European leaders. The older generations that predominately

:46:11.:46:13.

bloated for Brexit, I'm afraid will be those that have to live with it

:46:14.:46:18.

for the shortest amount of time. Those that have to live with it are

:46:19.:46:21.

those young people and I would say to them whatever mistakes by party

:46:22.:46:25.

app made in the past, if you're against Brexit, your only option is

:46:26.:46:30.

to vote for the Liberal Democrats. Labour are abolishing tuition fees

:46:31.:46:34.

and of their manifesto is to be believed, they're hoping to cash in

:46:35.:46:36.

believed, they're hoping to cash in on that.

:46:37.:46:38.

Katie Atherton, who was in Tony's piece went

:46:39.:46:40.

into politics and is now stepping down because of the abuse,

:46:41.:46:42.

not just on social media, she found the whole process

:46:43.:46:45.

of politics in Mansfield very gladitorial.

:46:46.:46:47.

Politics is a tough old game. I was a councillor for four years. When

:46:48.:46:57.

you're a politician, an elected representative, an MP or a

:46:58.:47:00.

counsellor, you have to make decisions on popular agree with them

:47:01.:47:04.

and some people don't. Some people are a tad rude in their opposition

:47:05.:47:09.

to what you do. To a certain extent, you had to dig on the chin, because

:47:10.:47:12.

get if you stand for election. But get if you stand for election. But

:47:13.:47:18.

by the same token, I think social media, you know, I'm on Twitter,

:47:19.:47:23.

most of us are. You are. It's very easy to be angry about something and

:47:24.:47:27.

type it in and it sent away. Instead, you should have a breath,

:47:28.:47:31.

have a thought, think about whether it I would say that the person to

:47:32.:47:34.

their face, if not, don't type it. Don't be know of those who media. --

:47:35.:47:41.

Maybe it's not in the interests of Conservatives

:47:42.:47:44.

to encourage young people to vote - the younger you are, the more likely

:47:45.:47:48.

That might be right, but I've always been consistent on this. I feel very

:47:49.:47:54.

committed about encouraging people to register to vote from the

:47:55.:47:56.

earliest opportunity, from the earliest possible age and to make

:47:57.:48:00.

sure that people do take an interest in vote. I would say that the

:48:01.:48:04.

earlier you take an interest, I would like to think that the

:48:05.:48:07.

Conservative policies would appeal. Obviously that the policy of the

:48:08.:48:13.

Conservative politicians. Be that as it may, this country is about the

:48:14.:48:16.

future. You're voting for the next five years. Anyone coming to the

:48:17.:48:22.

voting age now, there is such an important five years coming up. I

:48:23.:48:26.

don't just mean Brexit, but domestic policy as well. This is their

:48:27.:48:27.

You stood down after just one term, in a way you've walked away

:48:28.:48:32.

from a career in politics too, were you disillusioned?

:48:33.:48:36.

I hope not, no. I think public service is a brilliant thing to do.

:48:37.:48:42.

It's a real privilege and pleasure. I also don't think that anyone

:48:43.:48:46.

should be compelled to do it for whatever reason. It is about choice.

:48:47.:48:50.

I think that's a really important message as well. For me it was about

:48:51.:48:54.

serving my community, doing the best I possibly could and also for my

:48:55.:48:58.

party and my country by the time I was there. I would say make sure you

:48:59.:49:02.

vote and if you want to, make sure you stand. How do we make this

:49:03.:49:05.

In the 1992 election, 63% of 18-24-year-olds voted.

:49:06.:49:08.

In the last election it had dropped to 43%.

:49:09.:49:11.

We all know how important this boat is, how are you going to bring it

:49:12.:49:17.

home? And standing down whilst I still have some of my youth left. We

:49:18.:49:21.

need to make politics more user-friendly generally. Above all

:49:22.:49:26.

for women and also for young people. That includes things like getting

:49:27.:49:31.

people involved, let's be a bit tough on this. Let's say that if we

:49:32.:49:35.

can drop the voting age to 16, which I'm in favour of, then they should

:49:36.:49:41.

be mandated. You are going to go and vote even if used by all your ballot

:49:42.:49:46.

paper. That's something I have campaigned for for a long time,

:49:47.:49:49.

online voting, is a young people don't have to take a day of college

:49:50.:49:56.

or work. That also is that this idea that somehow young people are

:49:57.:50:00.

different to everyone else in the issues they care about, whether it's

:50:01.:50:04.

the environment, global warming, the state of our food, the state of

:50:05.:50:09.

globe you multinationals evading tax. The idea that young people

:50:10.:50:14.

don't have a job to go to, that we just throw people out of school at

:50:15.:50:17.

the end of the day to fend for themselves. These are issues that

:50:18.:50:21.

are of real concern to everyone, above all young people. We need to

:50:22.:50:25.

respect that by making sure that we also give them the right mechanics

:50:26.:50:32.

allow them to use the voting system. Do you support mandatory voting? As

:50:33.:50:36.

long as it was an option of none of the above. You would have to have

:50:37.:50:40.

that for mandatory voting. I think Graham is absolutely right, that

:50:41.:50:44.

young people care about a range of issues. Youth clubs, run by councils

:50:45.:50:50.

have been cut up and down the country. By local councils. But also

:50:51.:50:55.

when you say to local councils, why have you felt you need to do this,

:50:56.:51:02.

they blame the Budget from central Government. It's a vulnerable young

:51:03.:51:06.

people that suffer when these services go. It's shameful. There is

:51:07.:51:12.

some hope. Almost 60,000 young people registered foot to vote. That

:51:13.:51:18.

is phenomenal and there's still time to do that before this election. The

:51:19.:51:21.

fact that some young people in Scotland can vote in some elections

:51:22.:51:26.

but not in others, giving people the mandate, the franchise and then

:51:27.:51:29.

taking it away from them, shameful again. Thank you very much.

:51:30.:51:33.

It's the most marginal constituency in England.

:51:34.:51:35.

Just a few dozen votes separated the Conservatives and Labour

:51:36.:51:37.

in 2015 in Derby North, with the Tories coming out

:51:38.:51:40.

Now the Labour candidate is back, convinced that a full-blooded

:51:41.:51:44.

backing of Jeremy Corbyn's policies will win the seat.

:51:45.:51:46.

Not even a general election gets in the way of

:51:47.:52:04.

bingo at the Jubilee Club in Chadderton.

:52:05.:52:06.

But what will the voters be focusing on when they decide who

:52:07.:52:08.

It's only going to get worse, isn't it?

:52:09.:52:17.

The NHS is stretched, schools are stretched,

:52:18.:52:18.

Derby North is a tricky constituency to predict.

:52:19.:52:30.

It's gone back and forth between the Conservatives and Labour.

:52:31.:52:32.

Throughout the 1980s, it was held by the

:52:33.:52:34.

And under Tony Blair, Labour won it back and clung on here until

:52:35.:52:38.

At the last election, it was the only seat

:52:39.:52:41.

in the East Midlands to change, swinging back to the

:52:42.:52:44.

It's all about celebrating what is great in

:52:45.:52:47.

the city of Derby, but also recognising what it is that we need

:52:48.:52:50.

And two years just hasn't been enough.

:52:51.:52:53.

I've been doing lots and lots of things, but I would just

:52:54.:52:57.

like to have more time to do even more.

:52:58.:52:59.

You would expect that, but there are other

:53:00.:53:02.

things as well around education, mental health.

:53:03.:53:03.

Very, very close to my heart and I'm just hoping to be

:53:04.:53:06.

part of a Government that does so much for mental health.

:53:07.:53:18.

So, what will happen this time around?

:53:19.:53:20.

Well, it certainly won't be victory for

:53:21.:53:22.

Instead choosing to support the Labour candidate, who they say

:53:23.:53:26.

It's probably the best manifesto we've

:53:27.:53:28.

As you look back at the 1970s, working-class people as I

:53:29.:53:32.

was then as a 19-year-old bricklayer, I was earning enough

:53:33.:53:35.

money to buy a brand-new three bedroomed house in a desirable

:53:36.:53:37.

That's impossible in this day and age.

:53:38.:53:48.

We've got people sleeping on the street, we've got

:53:49.:53:51.

over 1 million people reliant on food banks, zero our contracts,

:53:52.:53:53.

A Labour victory here would be a pathway to a Labour

:53:54.:53:59.

Government which would transform the lives of people in this city.

:54:00.:54:01.

Ukip say they need to be in Parliament so

:54:02.:54:03.

We have got to be there to make sure we get

:54:04.:54:10.

the right result in the

:54:11.:54:11.

She's already changed her mind about when there was going

:54:12.:54:15.

to be an election, she's already changed her mind about whether or

:54:16.:54:18.

not going to increase national insurance contributions.

:54:19.:54:19.

So, what's to stop her now changing her mind on

:54:20.:54:22.

There are many people here who know how important

:54:23.:54:25.

it is for businesses like Rolls-Royce, Bombardier, like

:54:26.:54:27.

Toyota locally to have access into the single market.

:54:28.:54:29.

People have to consider what is most important to

:54:30.:54:31.

them and whether it's the NHS or whether it

:54:32.:54:33.

is her relationship with

:54:34.:54:34.

Europe or whether it's funding for education.

:54:35.:54:36.

It's eyes down for the general election in this marginal

:54:37.:54:40.

If history is anything to go by, whoever wins here can look

:54:41.:54:43.

forward to a full house in Parliament.

:54:44.:54:49.

We're joined by Sue Mallender from the Green Party.

:54:50.:54:51.

Sue Mallender, it's interesting that in Derby North you're not

:54:52.:54:53.

standing to boost the chances of the Labour candidate.

:54:54.:54:55.

And in Mansfield you're stepping aside to let Labour hoover up

:54:56.:54:58.

We think we are giving them the chance to have their say, but

:54:59.:55:19.

unfortunately it is a green vote in those particular constituencies is

:55:20.:55:23.

not going to be successful. There are obviously constituencies in the

:55:24.:55:27.

country where a green vote will be more successful and what we would

:55:28.:55:30.

like to see as those other parties cooperating with us so that they

:55:31.:55:34.

stand down, because I understand we stood down in 22 different

:55:35.:55:38.

constituencies over across the country. That is because we want to

:55:39.:55:43.

give people a chance to vote for those policies, because we think it

:55:44.:55:48.

is policies not personalities that are important in elections we know

:55:49.:55:59.

that there is more sharing in the latest Labour manifesto. There are

:56:00.:56:02.

things we feel are important. With fracking and other aspects of the

:56:03.:56:06.

environment, although a green vote is the only one if you are concerned

:56:07.:56:12.

that the environment. Would Labour it stands down in favour of the

:56:13.:56:17.

Green candidate? What we are hearing is this noise that politics,

:56:18.:56:23.

Parliament isn't fit for purpose and above all our electoral system isn't

:56:24.:56:27.

fit for purpose. All of those nonconservative parties will have to

:56:28.:56:31.

consider proper alliances very, very seriously. The way to do that is not

:56:32.:56:35.

just moments before the general election, which incidentally, we

:56:36.:56:40.

promise was fixed term and that was done away with by Theresa May. That

:56:41.:56:48.

was to create a platform, an anti-conservative platform that

:56:49.:56:51.

Labour, liberals, the Greens and others agreed to support each

:56:52.:56:56.

other's that we get a majority. When you got the majority, only then are

:56:57.:56:59.

you going to be able to change the electoral system to a fear one so

:57:00.:57:03.

that we hear the voices of the Greens, we hear the voices of Ukip

:57:04.:57:07.

and the Lib Dems properly and we form alliances then to not have a

:57:08.:57:11.

winner takes all system which is bad for all.

:57:12.:57:17.

Jessica Lee, Theresa May famously described the idea

:57:18.:57:18.

of the anti-Conservative parties aligning as a

:57:19.:57:20.

"coalition of chaos" but an alliance of all the opposition parties

:57:21.:57:23.

manipulate voters are not giving manipulate voters are not giving

:57:24.:57:30.

them toys like this. You were in an them toys like this. You were in an

:57:31.:57:36.

alliance for five years. You were in an alliance with the Liberal

:57:37.:57:42.

Democrats. No, that was not. If I could just finished. Knee-high days

:57:43.:57:48.

of the Labour Government with Prime Minister Blair, I don't remember

:57:49.:57:51.

then that Labour suggesting they have alliances. The British people

:57:52.:57:53.

don't like being told what to do and don't like being told what to do and

:57:54.:57:56.

the like choice. I think there's going to be quite a bit of

:57:57.:57:59.

scepticism and disappointment by people that do support a little

:58:00.:58:03.

parties if they're not given a choice. I think political parties

:58:04.:58:07.

should field as many political parties as possible. I agree with

:58:08.:58:16.

that. What we don't want is that. We were the opposite. Our party voted

:58:17.:58:19.

at conference because all our policies are voted at conference by

:58:20.:58:24.

the people who are members. The only reason we want form alliances is so

:58:25.:58:30.

that we can then have another election on proportional

:58:31.:58:32.

representation is about people's voices are actually heard, because

:58:33.:58:37.

no people that vote, their voices are interred. 48% of people voted

:58:38.:58:45.

against coming out of the European Union. Their voices are into being

:58:46.:58:50.

handed the moment. Under the Coalition Government, there was a

:58:51.:58:54.

referendum about changing our voting patterns and people don't want to do

:58:55.:58:58.

that. I do think it's better to be consistent about this and I hope the

:58:59.:59:02.

Conservative Party do remain consistent about this, which is to

:59:03.:59:05.

give every constituency as many different political parties as

:59:06.:59:08.

possible and give people choice instead of trying to manipulate

:59:09.:59:13.

voters. Whether you win under any system, it's a good system. That is

:59:14.:59:17.

needed. We all know there is a better way of doing our politics

:59:18.:59:21.

than winner takes all and shouting at each other at Prime Minister's

:59:22.:59:26.

Questions and having an all powerful Prime Minister who isn't directly

:59:27.:59:31.

elected. They should Alexa locally and not have some sort of surrogate

:59:32.:59:35.

for the Prime Minister. That way you have a strong Parliament that will

:59:36.:59:39.

hold to account a properly elected Government. To get to that position

:59:40.:59:42.

you have to do is the electoral position. You will not change under

:59:43.:59:46.

the current system. That will require everybody getting together

:59:47.:59:49.

and putting our country and our politics ahead of pure policies and

:59:50.:59:56.

party games. Are you worried that green edges will not be heard in all

:59:57.:59:59.

of this? We know that we have some of the worst air pollution in our

:00:00.:00:02.

countries and fracking is looming on the horizon. Lots of applications

:00:03.:00:05.

you in the East Midlands. Early stages. The vote on proportional

:00:06.:00:12.

representation was not a vote on that. AV is not in anybody's

:00:13.:00:16.

proportional representation which they have in virtually all other

:00:17.:00:20.

countries in the world. Onto the green issues, people have been

:00:21.:00:23.

talking a lot young people and certainly this is something that's

:00:24.:00:27.

important for young people. We are the only party that believes that we

:00:28.:00:32.

have one planet which is a centre in fact, where the other parties in to

:00:33.:00:35.

think that we have three or four to live on and saw the environment is a

:00:36.:00:41.

vital important fact. We need to have that discussed and sadly it is

:00:42.:00:45.

not discussed very much in the selection.

:00:46.:00:47.

That's the Sunday Politics in the East Midlands.

:00:48.:00:49.

Thanks to all our guests, Jessica Lee, Graham Allen,

:00:50.:00:51.

Tories are saying. It is a very emotive subject and we have run out

:00:52.:00:59.

of time. On Thursday nominations closed

:01:00.:01:06.

in the 650 parliamentary seats across the country,

:01:07.:01:11.

so now we know exactly who's We've been analysing the parties'

:01:12.:01:13.

candidates to find out what they might tell us

:01:14.:01:20.

about the make-up of the House Well, we know Theresa May is

:01:21.:01:23.

committed to delivering Brexit and analysis of Conservative

:01:24.:01:28.

candidates has shown that in their top 100 target seats,

:01:29.:01:33.

37 candidates supported leave during last year's referendum

:01:34.:01:35.

campaign and 20 supported remain; 43

:01:36.:01:43.

have not made public In the last parliament,

:01:44.:01:45.

the vast majority of Labour MPs were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how

:01:46.:01:51.

supportive are Labour Well, of 50 of Labour's

:01:52.:01:53.

top 100 target seats 17 candidates have expressed

:01:54.:02:00.

support for Mr Corbyn. 20 candidates supported Owen Smith

:02:01.:02:02.

in last year's leadership contest or have expressed

:02:03.:02:07.

anti-Corbyn sentiment, and If they won those,

:02:08.:02:11.

the Labour benches would be marginally more sympathetic

:02:12.:02:17.

to Mr Corbyn than they are now. What do the figures tell us

:02:18.:02:19.

about where the other Well, the Lib Dems have decided not

:02:20.:02:22.

to stand against the Greens in Brighton Pavilion,

:02:23.:02:26.

and are fielding 629 candidates this year -

:02:27.:02:27.

that's two fewer than 2015. The number of Ukip candidates has

:02:28.:02:30.

fallen dramatically. They are standing in 247 fewer

:02:31.:02:34.

constituencies than 2015, throwing their support behind

:02:35.:02:40.

solidly pro-Brexit Tories in some areas such as Lewes

:02:41.:02:42.

and Norfolk North. The Greens are fielding

:02:43.:02:47.

103 fewer candidates than at the last election,

:02:48.:02:50.

standing down to help other progressive candidates

:02:51.:03:01.

in some places. The most liking statistic is the

:03:02.:03:15.

demise in Ukip candidates, is this their swansong? And I think so. It

:03:16.:03:21.

is remarkable how few Ukip candidates are standing. It is hard

:03:22.:03:28.

to see they will suddenly revive in the next couple of years. I think

:03:29.:03:38.

this is probably the end. Frank Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of

:03:39.:03:43.

the left was a feature of this election, but also there is the

:03:44.:03:45.

consolidation of the right, and if you take the things together that

:03:46.:03:49.

could explain why the polls are where they are. Absolutely, that's

:03:50.:03:53.

precisely what happened at the start of the 1980s, the right was

:03:54.:03:59.

incredibly united and that's when we started talking about majorities of

:04:00.:04:05.

over 100 or so. No matter what the size of Theresa May's majority, it

:04:06.:04:12.

will be the total collapse of Ukip, but not just because we are now

:04:13.:04:17.

leaving the EU and that was their only reason for being, but a whole

:04:18.:04:21.

lot of people voted for Ukip because they felt the Tories were no longer

:04:22.:04:30.

listening. Theresa May has given the impression that she is listening,

:04:31.:04:33.

and that is the biggest possible thing that could happen to the Tory

:04:34.:04:42.

vote. Fragmentation of the left, consolidation of the right? It's one

:04:43.:04:46.

of the lessons that is never learnt, it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't

:04:47.:04:51.

take much for the whole thing to fracture so now you have on the

:04:52.:04:55.

centre-left the SNP, the Labour Party, the Greens, the Liberal

:04:56.:05:01.

Democrats all competing for the same votes and when you have, fleetingly

:05:02.:05:06.

perhaps, large numbers coalescing on the right in one party, there is

:05:07.:05:12.

only going to be one outcome. It happens regularly. It doesn't mean

:05:13.:05:16.

the Tories haven't got their own fragility. Two years ago, David

:05:17.:05:21.

Cameron and George Osborne the dominant figures, neither are in

:05:22.:05:25.

Parliament now which is a symptom of the fragility this election is

:05:26.:05:30.

disguising. Mrs May's position in a way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in

:05:31.:05:35.

the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in

:05:36.:05:40.

France, I won't be outflanked on the right, so the National Front didn't

:05:41.:05:43.

get through either timed he ran to the second round on like this time,

:05:44.:05:48.

and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be outflanked Iver and as a result has

:05:49.:05:54.

seen off right flank. And also she is looking to the left as well with

:05:55.:05:58.

some of the state interventions. What was interesting about the

:05:59.:06:01.

analysis you showed a few minutes ago was the number of Tory

:06:02.:06:05.

candidates who have apparently not declared which way they voted in the

:06:06.:06:10.

referendum, and you would have thought if this election was all

:06:11.:06:14.

about Brexit, as some would claim, that would become an unsustainable

:06:15.:06:18.

position, and actually more it's about leadership. But the point that

:06:19.:06:23.

I'm now hearing from a number of Labour candidates that they are

:06:24.:06:29.

seeing Tory leaflets that don't even have the Tory candidate's name on

:06:30.:06:35.

them, it is just about Theresa May. I am glad they are keeping to the

:06:36.:06:39.

law because by law they have to put it on. It has been harder for some

:06:40.:06:43.

of the smaller parties too because of the speed of the election being

:06:44.:06:51.

called. We have the manifesto is coming out this week. I think Labour

:06:52.:06:56.

Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet sure when the Tories will bring

:06:57.:07:01.

bears out. I suggest one thing, it will at least for people like me

:07:02.:07:06.

bring an end to the question you will have to wait for the manifesto.

:07:07.:07:13.

And Rebecca Long baby will never have that excuse again, isn't it

:07:14.:07:22.

wonderful! She is not the only one. When you are trying to take the

:07:23.:07:26.

north and Midlands from Labour, I would go to one or the other. For

:07:27.:07:32.

me, I can barely hold back my excitement over the Tory manifesto.

:07:33.:07:37.

This will be, I think, the most important day for the British

:07:38.:07:40.

government for the next five years. That wasn't irony there? You

:07:41.:07:48.

actually meant that? I'm not even being cynical at all on Sunday

:07:49.:07:53.

Politics! This is a huge day and it's because I think we will see...

:07:54.:08:01.

I don't think Mrs May will play it safe and I don't think we will get

:08:02.:08:06.

the broadbrush stuff that she might be advised to do. I think she will

:08:07.:08:10.

lay out precisely what you want to do over the next five years and take

:08:11.:08:15.

some big risks. Then finally after a year of this guessing and

:08:16.:08:19.

theorising, we will finally work out what Mrs May is all about. She will

:08:20.:08:23.

say she doesn't want the next parliament to be all about Brexit,

:08:24.:08:26.

though she knows that's the next important thing she has to deliver

:08:27.:08:30.

in some way, so she gets a mandate for that if the polls are right but

:08:31.:08:32.

she does have very different ideas from

:08:33.:08:46.

Mr Cameron about how to run a country. She will I assume one to

:08:47.:08:49.

mandate for what these different ideas are. Otherwise there is no

:08:50.:08:51.

point in holding an early election. You will get a majority, but if you

:08:52.:08:55.

get a mandate to carry on implementing the Cameron and Osborne

:08:56.:08:57.

manifesto it would be utterly pointless. I agree, it is the

:08:58.:09:01.

pivotal event of the election and it will be interesting to see the

:09:02.:09:04.

degree to which she expands on the line which interests me about its

:09:05.:09:10.

time to look at the good that government can do. Because in a way

:09:11.:09:15.

this moves the debate on in UK politics from, from 97 the Blair

:09:16.:09:19.

Brown governments were insecure about arguing about the role of

:09:20.:09:24.

government. Cameron Osborne government similarly so, so here you

:09:25.:09:27.

have a Labour Party talking about the role of government and the

:09:28.:09:32.

state, and Tory leader apparently doing so was well. I think that will

:09:33.:09:36.

be really interesting to see whether it is fleshed out in any significant

:09:37.:09:42.

way. And it is not a natural Tory message. Harold Macmillan talked

:09:43.:09:46.

about the role of the state, Ted Heath Mark two was pretty big on the

:09:47.:09:54.

state, the industrial policy and so on, and even if it is not thought to

:09:55.:09:59.

be that Tory, does she get away with it because she deliver such a big

:10:00.:10:03.

victory if that's what she does deliver? Just inject a little note

:10:04.:10:09.

of scepticism, I wonder how much of this is authentically Theresa May. I

:10:10.:10:16.

was interested to and talk to someone who used to sit in cabinet

:10:17.:10:20.

meetings during which Theresa May never expressed an opinion on

:10:21.:10:24.

anything outside the Home Office briefs. Other ministers were roving

:10:25.:10:31.

all over their colleagues' briefs. So where are the ideas coming from?

:10:32.:10:37.

I think we can point to Nick Timothy. One of her closest advisers

:10:38.:10:43.

in Downing Street. It will be interesting to see how that evolves.

:10:44.:10:50.

On Thursday I think we will all be talking about something called

:10:51.:11:01.

Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the suburb of Birmingham where Nick

:11:02.:11:05.

Timothy comes from, who is very much Theresa May's policy brain and

:11:06.:11:11.

leading inspiration. Urdington Toryism is about connecting the

:11:12.:11:15.

party with traditional working class voters, and their belief to do that

:11:16.:11:19.

is not just taking away government out of their lives but showing them

:11:20.:11:24.

that government can actually help their lives. It can be a force for

:11:25.:11:32.

good to rebuild the trust. A lot of what Mrs May talks about is all...

:11:33.:11:39.

It is talk and then a lot of it suddenly goes by the wayside. What

:11:40.:11:47.

happened to worker directors on the boards. It is designed to appeal to

:11:48.:11:52.

that constituency and then nothing happens. She had an excuse before in

:11:53.:11:57.

the sense that it wasn't in the 2015 manifesto and she had a small

:11:58.:12:01.

majority so therefore she arguably had to water down some of the stuff

:12:02.:12:05.

for example in her Tory conference speech, which had a lot of this

:12:06.:12:09.

active government material in it. If she puts it in the manifesto, it is

:12:10.:12:14.

a sign she plans to do it and will have no excuse if she then gets

:12:15.:12:19.

nervous afterwards because it will be in there. If it wasn't for

:12:20.:12:23.

Brexit, this great overwhelming issue, I think this election will be

:12:24.:12:28.

seen as quite a significant development in terms of an argument

:12:29.:12:32.

around the role of government, much-needed. But Brexit

:12:33.:12:37.

unfortunately overshadows it all. As much as we like our arguments over

:12:38.:12:41.

the role of government we will hear strong and stable, stable and strong

:12:42.:12:49.

ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely, and we heard the same old lines from

:12:50.:12:53.

the Labour Party as well so they are all at it. It will be a fascinating

:12:54.:13:00.

week, stop talking it down! Thanks to our panel.

:13:01.:13:03.

The Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at noon

:13:04.:13:06.

I'll be back here at the same time on BBC One next Sunday.

:13:07.:13:10.

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:11.:13:14.

Andrew Neil and Marie Ashby are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and Home Office minister Brandon Lewis to discuss the party manifestos for the forthcoming general election. Plus American political pollster Frank Luntz, and a chat with undecided voters in Leeds. Journalists Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards review the papers.