14/05/2017 Sunday Politics East


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14/05/2017

Andrew Neil and Stewart White are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, housing minister Brandon Lewis and American political pollster Frank Luntz.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:37.:00:40.

Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes

:00:41.:00:43.

in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -

:00:44.:00:46.

Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax

:00:47.:00:53.

to fund public services, but will traders just

:00:54.:00:55.

Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,

:00:56.:00:59.

insists he can win this election - so which way will

:01:00.:01:01.

We'll hear from a focus group in Leeds.

:01:02.:01:07.

Here in the East, the thousands of nurses that are needed to fill

:01:08.:01:10.

And why some parties are standing aside this election.

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and here, what the parties are saying about tackling the air

:01:15.:01:17.

pollution problem in London. And with me, our own scientifically

:01:18.:01:25.

selected focus group of political pundits -

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they're not so much undecided as clueless -

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Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott They'll be tweeting

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throughout the programme. So, we've got two new

:01:34.:01:40.

policies this morning. Labour say they will introduce

:01:41.:01:42.

a financial transaction tax if they win the general election

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and what they're calling "the biggest crackdown on tax

:01:45.:01:46.

avoidance in the country's history". The Conservatives say they'll work

:01:47.:01:49.

with local authorities in England to build council houses

:01:50.:01:51.

with the right to buy. Theresa May says the policy

:01:52.:01:53.

"will help thousands of people get on the first rung

:01:54.:01:56.

of the housing ladder". Steve, what do you make of them? I

:01:57.:02:08.

have been conditioned after doing tax and spend debates in

:02:09.:02:13.

pre-election periods for many decades to treat policy is not as

:02:14.:02:17.

literal but as arguments. In other words if you look back to 2015 the

:02:18.:02:21.

Tory plan to wipe out the deficit was never going to happen and yet it

:02:22.:02:26.

framed and large event. In that sense the Robin Hood tax is a

:02:27.:02:30.

sensible move for Labour to make at this point because it is part of a

:02:31.:02:35.

narrative of reconfiguring taxation to be fair. Treating it as an

:02:36.:02:38.

argument rather than something that would happen in day one of Labour

:02:39.:02:45.

government is sensible. In terms of building houses Theresa May said

:02:46.:02:48.

right from the beginning when she was in Number Ten that there is a

:02:49.:02:51.

housing deficit in this country rather than the economic deficit

:02:52.:02:55.

George Osborne was focusing on, and this is an example of trying to get

:02:56.:03:00.

house-building going. It seems entirely sensible, not sure how it

:03:01.:03:03.

works with right to buy but again as framing of a 90 minute it makes

:03:04.:03:09.

sense. I disagree with Steve on one front which is how sensible Theresa

:03:10.:03:16.

May's policy is on the housing announcement. I think more broadly

:03:17.:03:21.

these two announcements have something in common which is that

:03:22.:03:24.

over the next 24 hours both will probably unravel in different ways.

:03:25.:03:30.

Ye of little faith! The Mayor of London has already said he doesn't

:03:31.:03:34.

agree with this, and when people see the actual impact of what looks like

:03:35.:03:41.

a populist tax will very potentially affect people's pensions, it might

:03:42.:03:46.

become a lot less popular. On the Tory housing plans, I think it is

:03:47.:03:50.

difficult to imagine how they are going to implement this huge, what

:03:51.:03:55.

looks like a huge land and property grab. Through compulsory purchase

:03:56.:04:00.

orders, which are not a simple instrument. They say they will

:04:01.:04:04.

change the law but really the idea of paying people below the market

:04:05.:04:07.

value for their assets is not something I can see sitting easily

:04:08.:04:12.

with Tory backbenchers or the Tories in the House of Lords. Tom. Both

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would appear superficially to be appealing to traditional left and

:04:20.:04:23.

traditional right bases. What is more Tory than right to buy, then

:04:24.:04:30.

councils sell on these houses, and Labour slapping a massive tax on the

:04:31.:04:38.

city. The Tories' plan, I would say look a bit deeper and all of the

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Tory narrative from the last six years which hasn't worked well is

:04:42.:04:45.

talking about the private sector increasing supply in the market. Now

:04:46.:04:50.

Mrs May is talking about the role for the state after all so this is

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the shift creeping in. On the Labour transaction tax, one of the most

:04:58.:05:02.

interesting things I heard in days was from Paul Mason, former BBC

:05:03.:05:09.

correspondent, now a cog in Easter extreme. On Newsnight he said don't

:05:10.:05:12.

worry about whether the Labour manifesto will add up, I'm promising

:05:13.:05:17.

it will, the bigger Tory attack line should be what on earth will be the

:05:18.:05:24.

macroeconomic effect of taking so much tax out of the system. Very

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well, we shall see. At least we have some policies to talk about.

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Now, on Tuesday Labour will launch its manifesto.

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But we've already got a pretty good idea of what's in it -

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that's because most of its contents were leaked to the media

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Labour has a variety of spending pledges including an extra

:05:40.:05:48.

?6 billion a year for the NHS, an additional ?8 billion for social

:05:49.:05:51.

care over the lifetime of the next parliament,

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as well as a ?250 billion in infrastructure over

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The party will support the renewal of the Trident submarine system,

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although any Prime Minister should be extremely cautious

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about its use, and the party will hold a strategic defence

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and security review immediately after the election.

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In terms of immigration, Labour will seek "reasonable

:06:11.:06:12.

management of migration", but it will not make "false

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Elsewhere, university tuition fees will be abolished,

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and the public sector pay cap, which limits pay rises

:06:21.:06:23.

for public sector workers to 1%, will be scrapped.

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The party also aims to renationalise the railways, the Royal Mail

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and the National Grid, as well as creating at least one

:06:30.:06:36.

A senior Labour backbencher described it to the Sunday Politics

:06:37.:06:42.

as a manifesto for a leadership who don't "give a toss

:06:43.:06:44.

about the wider public", and several other Labour candidates

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told us they thought it had been deliberately

:06:48.:06:48.

leaked by the leadership, with one suggesting

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the leak was intended to "bounce the National Executive"

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And we're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Business Secretary,

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Welcome to the programme. The draft manifesto proposed to renationalise

:06:59.:07:07.

the number of industry. You will wait for the franchises to run out

:07:08.:07:11.

rather than buy them out at the moment so can you confirm the

:07:12.:07:16.

railways will not be wholly nationalised until 2030, after three

:07:17.:07:20.

Labour governments, and Jeremy Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to

:07:21.:07:26.

comment on leaks, you will just have to be patient and wait to see what

:07:27.:07:33.

is in our manifesto. But you have already announced you will

:07:34.:07:37.

nationalise the railways, so tell me about it. We have discussed taking

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the franchises into public ownership as they expire, however the detail

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will be set out in the manifesto so I'm not prepared to go into detail

:07:46.:07:51.

until that policy is formally laid out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound

:07:52.:07:55.

very hopeful but let's carry on. You will also nationalise the National

:07:56.:08:01.

Grid, it has a market capitalisation of ?40 billion, why do you want to

:08:02.:08:07.

nationalise that? Again, I'm not going to speculate on leaks, you

:08:08.:08:11.

will just have to be patient. But you said you will nationalise the

:08:12.:08:18.

National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks have suggested but you will just

:08:19.:08:22.

have to wait and see what the final manifesto states on that one. So is

:08:23.:08:26.

it a waste of time me asking you how you will pay for something that

:08:27.:08:31.

costs 40 billion? Be patient, just couple of days to go, but what I

:08:32.:08:36.

would say is there is growing pressure from the public to reform

:08:37.:08:41.

the utilities sector. The Competition and Markets Authority

:08:42.:08:44.

stated in 2015 that bill payers were paying over till debt -- ?2 billion

:08:45.:08:49.

in excess of what they should be paying so there is a clear need for

:08:50.:08:56.

reform. The bills we get are from the energy companies, you are not

:08:57.:08:59.

going to nationalise them, you are going to nationalise the

:09:00.:09:03.

distribution company and I wondered what is the case for nationalising

:09:04.:09:08.

the distribution company? As I said, our full plans will be set out on

:09:09.:09:13.

Tuesday. In relation to the big six energy companies, we know in recent

:09:14.:09:16.

years they have been overcharging customers... There's no point in

:09:17.:09:23.

answering questions I am not asking. I am asking what is the case for

:09:24.:09:29.

nationalising the National Grid? There is a case for reforming the

:09:30.:09:33.

energy sector as a whole and that looks at the activities of the big

:09:34.:09:37.

six companies and it will look at other aspects too. You will have to

:09:38.:09:42.

be patient and wait until Tuesday. What about the Royal Mail? Again,

:09:43.:09:49.

you will have to wait until Tuesday. Why can't you just be honest with

:09:50.:09:53.

the British voter? We know you are going to do this and you have a duty

:09:54.:10:00.

to explain. I'm not even arguing whether it is right or wrong. The

:10:01.:10:06.

Royal Mail was sold off and we know it was sold under value and British

:10:07.:10:10.

taxpayers have a reason to feel aggrieved about that. There is a

:10:11.:10:14.

long-term strategy that would ensure the Royal Mail was classified as a

:10:15.:10:18.

key piece of infrastructure but the details of that will be set out in

:10:19.:10:24.

our manifesto because we want to ensure businesses and households

:10:25.:10:26.

ensure the best quality of service when it comes to their postal

:10:27.:10:32.

providers. You plan to borrow an extra 25 billion per year, John

:10:33.:10:37.

McDonnell has already announced this, on public investment, on top

:10:38.:10:41.

of the around 50 billion already being planned for investment. You

:10:42.:10:46.

will borrow it all so that means, if you can confirm, that many years

:10:47.:10:54.

after the crash by 2021, Labour government would still be borrowing

:10:55.:11:00.

75 billion a year. Is that correct? We have set out ?250 billion of

:11:01.:11:07.

capital investment, and ?250 billion for a national investment bank. Our

:11:08.:11:10.

financial and fiscal rules dictate we will leave the Government in a

:11:11.:11:15.

state of less debt than we found it at the start of the parliament so we

:11:16.:11:18.

won't increase the national debt at the end of our Parliamentary term.

:11:19.:11:25.

How can you do that if by 2021 you will still be borrowing around 75

:11:26.:11:29.

billion a year, which is more than we borrow at the moment? The 500

:11:30.:11:35.

billion figure is set out over a period of ten years, it's a figure

:11:36.:11:39.

that has been suggested by Peter Helm from Oxford University as a

:11:40.:11:43.

figure that is necessary to bring us in line with other industrial

:11:44.:11:47.

competitors. Similar figures have been suggested by groups such as the

:11:48.:11:55.

CBI. By the way I have not included all 500 billion, just the 250

:11:56.:11:59.

billion on public spending, not the extra money. You talk about the

:12:00.:12:04.

fiscal rules. The draft manifesto said you will leave debt as a

:12:05.:12:09.

proportion of trend GDP law at the end of each parliament, you have

:12:10.:12:16.

just said a version of that. What is trend GDP? In clear terms we will

:12:17.:12:19.

ensure the debt we acquire will be reduced by the end of the

:12:20.:12:24.

parliament. We won't leave the Government finances in a worse state

:12:25.:12:31.

than we found them. OK, but what is trend GDP? Our rule is we will

:12:32.:12:35.

ensure public sector net debt is less than we found it when we came

:12:36.:12:39.

to power in Government on June the 8th. But that is not what your draft

:12:40.:12:47.

manifesto says. I'm not going to comment on leaks, you are just going

:12:48.:12:51.

to have to wait until Tuesday to look at the fine detail and perhaps

:12:52.:12:56.

we will have another chat then. You have published your plans for

:12:57.:13:00.

corporation tax and you will increase it by a third and your

:13:01.:13:04.

predictions assumed that will get an extra 20 billion a year by the end

:13:05.:13:09.

of the parliament. But that assumes the companies don't change their

:13:10.:13:13.

behaviour, that they move money around, they leave the country or

:13:14.:13:18.

they generate smaller profits. Is that realistic? You are right to

:13:19.:13:23.

make that point and you will see when we set out our policies and

:13:24.:13:26.

costings in the manifesto that we haven't spent all of the tax take.

:13:27.:13:32.

We have allowed for different differentials and potential changes

:13:33.:13:35.

in market activity because that would be approved and direction to

:13:36.:13:40.

take. But corporation tax is allowed to be cut in France and the United

:13:41.:13:48.

States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin. Many companies based in Britain are

:13:49.:13:51.

already wondering whether they should relocate because of Brexit,

:13:52.:13:56.

if you increase this tax by a third couldn't that clinch it for a number

:13:57.:14:01.

of them? No, we will still be one of the lowest corporation tax rate in

:14:02.:14:06.

the G7. Let's look at what's important for business. Cutting

:14:07.:14:11.

corporation tax in itself doesn't improve productivity, or business

:14:12.:14:15.

investment and there's no suggestion cutting corporation tax in recent

:14:16.:14:18.

years has achieved that. Businesses need an investment in tools in

:14:19.:14:24.

things they need to thrive and prosper, they also need to reduce

:14:25.:14:28.

the burden at the lower end of the tax scale, before we get to the

:14:29.:14:34.

Prophet stage. One key example is business rates. We have made the

:14:35.:14:41.

proposal to government to in -- exclude machinery so businesses can

:14:42.:14:44.

invest and grow operations in the future but the Government refused.

:14:45.:14:51.

Corporation tax has been cut since 2010. When it was 28% it brought in

:14:52.:15:01.

?43 billion a year. Now it is down to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a

:15:02.:15:07.

year. By cutting it in the last year, it brought in 21% more, so

:15:08.:15:14.

what is the problem? It might have brought in more money, but has it

:15:15.:15:18.

increased business investment in the long term. It is not just about

:15:19.:15:24.

cutting corporation tax, but it is on the ability of businesses to

:15:25.:15:28.

thrive and prosper. Business investment in the UK is below are

:15:29.:15:34.

industrial competitors. Wages are stagnating which doesn't indicate

:15:35.:15:40.

businesses are not doing well. Let me get it right, you are arguing if

:15:41.:15:45.

we increase business tax by a third, that will increase investment? I am

:15:46.:15:52.

not saying that. You just did. Know I didn't, I said reducing business

:15:53.:16:00.

tax isn't enough, you have to invest in the things businesses need to

:16:01.:16:03.

thrive and prosper. You have also got to lessen the burden on

:16:04.:16:15.

business. You have announced a financial transaction tax. Your own

:16:16.:16:19.

labour Mayor of London said he has vowed to fight it. He said I do not

:16:20.:16:24.

want a unilateral tax on business in our city, so why are you proceeding

:16:25.:16:30.

with it? This isn't a new initiative, there is a growing

:16:31.:16:33.

global pressure to make sure we have fairness in the financial sector.

:16:34.:16:38.

Ordinary British people are paying for our banking crisis they didn't

:16:39.:16:44.

cause. Another important point, stamp duty reserve tax was brought

:16:45.:16:49.

in in the 1600 and there have been little reforms. The sector has

:16:50.:16:53.

changed and we have do provide changes to the system for that

:16:54.:16:58.

change. High-frequency trading where we have a state of affairs where a

:16:59.:17:02.

lot of shares are traded on computers within milliseconds. We

:17:03.:17:07.

need a tax system that keeps up with that. What happens if they move the

:17:08.:17:14.

computers to another country? Emily Thornaby said this morning, other

:17:15.:17:19.

countries had already introduced a financial transaction tax, what

:17:20.:17:21.

other countries have done that? There are ten countries looking at

:17:22.:17:30.

introducing a transaction tax. Which ones have done it so far? They will

:17:31.:17:37.

be later announcing a final package, going through the finer detail at

:17:38.:17:41.

the moment. But the European Commission tried to get this done in

:17:42.:17:46.

2011 and it still hasn't happened in any of these countries. But you are

:17:47.:17:51.

going to go ahead unilaterally and risk these businesses, which

:17:52.:17:55.

generate a lot of money, moving to other jurisdictions. There is not a

:17:56.:18:00.

significant risk of that happening. The stamp duty reserve tax is levied

:18:01.:18:11.

at either where the person or company is domiciled or where the

:18:12.:18:15.

instrument is issued rather than worth the transaction takes place.

:18:16.:18:20.

This tax in itself is not enough to make people leave this country in

:18:21.:18:24.

terms of financial services because there is more to keep these

:18:25.:18:28.

businesses here in terms of the investment we are making, the

:18:29.:18:33.

economy that Labour will build, in terms of productivity improvement we

:18:34.:18:37.

will see. Thank you very much, Rebecca Long-Bailey.

:18:38.:18:41.

And listening to that was the Home Office Minister, Brandon Lewis.

:18:42.:18:47.

Over the years, you have got corporation tax by 20%, it is lower

:18:48.:18:53.

than international standards, so why are so many global companies who

:18:54.:19:00.

make money out of Great Britain, still not paying 20%? It is one of

:19:01.:19:05.

the problems with the point Labour were making and Rebecca could not

:19:06.:19:07.

answer, these companies can move around the world. One of the

:19:08.:19:14.

important things is having a low tax economy but these businesses, it

:19:15.:19:18.

encourages them to come at a rate they are prepared to pay. People may

:19:19.:19:23.

say they are right, if they were paying 19, 20% incorporation tax.

:19:24.:19:29.

But they are not. Google runs a multi-million pound corporation and

:19:30.:19:38.

did not pay anywhere near 20%. There are companies that are trading

:19:39.:19:41.

internationally and that is why we have to get this work done with our

:19:42.:19:50.

partners around the world. Has there been an improvement? It is more than

:19:51.:19:54.

they were paying before. Whether it is Google or any other company,

:19:55.:19:58.

alongside them being here, apart from the tax they pay, it is the

:19:59.:20:04.

people they employ. The deal was, if you cut the business tax, the

:20:05.:20:08.

corporation tax on profits, we would get more companies coming here and

:20:09.:20:12.

more companies paying their tax. It seems it doesn't matter how low, a

:20:13.:20:17.

number of companies just pay a derisory amount and you haven't been

:20:18.:20:23.

able to change that. As you outlined, the income taken from the

:20:24.:20:26.

changing corporation tax has gone up. That is from established British

:20:27.:20:33.

companies, not from these international companies. It is

:20:34.:20:37.

because more companies are coming here and paying tax. That is a good

:20:38.:20:41.

thing. There is always more to do and that is why we want to crack

:20:42.:20:47.

down. In the last few weeks in the Finnish Parliament, Labour refused

:20:48.:20:51.

to put to another ?8.7 billion of tax take we could have got by

:20:52.:20:56.

cracking down further. You claim to have made great progress on cracking

:20:57.:21:01.

down on people and companies to pay the tax they should. But the tax gap

:21:02.:21:07.

is the difference between what HMRC takes in and what it should take in.

:21:08.:21:12.

It has barely moved in five years, so where is the progress? He have

:21:13.:21:19.

brought in 150 billion more where we have cracked down on those tax

:21:20.:21:22.

schemes. The gap is still the same as it was five years ago. It's gone

:21:23.:21:33.

from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down. The Prime Minister and the

:21:34.:21:35.

Chancellor said they want to continue work on to get more money

:21:36.:21:39.

on these companies while still having a competitive rate to

:21:40.:21:46.

encourage these companies. While big business and the wealthy continue to

:21:47.:21:51.

prosper, the Office for Budget Responsibility tell us those on

:21:52.:21:54.

average earnings in this country will be earning less in real terms

:21:55.:21:59.

by 2021 than they did in 2008. How can that be fair? I don't see it

:22:00.:22:05.

that way. I haven't seen the figures you have got. What I can say to you,

:22:06.:22:10.

Andrew, we have made sure the minimum wage has gone up, the actual

:22:11.:22:15.

income tax people pay has gone down. So in their pocket, real terms,

:22:16.:22:24.

people have more money. You are the self-styled party of work. We keep

:22:25.:22:26.

emphasising work. Under your government you can work for 13 years

:22:27.:22:31.

and still not earn any more at the end of it, and you did at the start.

:22:32.:22:37.

Where is the reward for effort in that? I have not seen those figures.

:22:38.:22:43.

There are 2.8 million more people, more jobs in economy than there was.

:22:44.:22:49.

1000 jobs every day and people are working and developing through their

:22:50.:22:53.

careers. This is what I thought was odd in what Rebecca was saying,

:22:54.:22:57.

investing in people is what the apprenticeship levy is about,

:22:58.:23:01.

companies are investing their works force to take more opportunities

:23:02.:23:07.

that there. We are talking about fairness, politicians talk about

:23:08.:23:10.

hard-working people and we know the average earnings are no higher than

:23:11.:23:15.

they were in 2008. We know the pay and bonuses of senior executives

:23:16.:23:20.

have continued to grow and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has

:23:21.:23:23.

shown 3 million of the poorest households will lose an average of

:23:24.:23:28.

?2500 a year in the next Parliament, benefits frozen, further sanctions

:23:29.:23:34.

kick in. 3 million of the poorest losing 2500. Under the Tories, one

:23:35.:23:39.

law for the rich and another for the poor. It is quite wrong. First of

:23:40.:23:45.

all, we have got to be fair to the taxpayer who is funding the welfare

:23:46.:23:49.

and benefit system. Which is why the welfare was right. Get more people

:23:50.:23:55.

in work and then it is important to get more people upscaling. As that

:23:56.:24:03.

allowance rises, people have more of the money they earn in their pocket

:24:04.:24:08.

to be able to use in the economy. People will be worse off. 2500,

:24:09.:24:14.

among the poorest already. They will have more money in their pocket as

:24:15.:24:19.

we increase the allowance before people pay tax. We have seen

:24:20.:24:26.

millions of people coming out of tax altogether. The reason I ask these

:24:27.:24:30.

questions, you and the Prime Minister go on and on about the just

:24:31.:24:34.

about managing classes. I am talking about the just about managing and

:24:35.:24:39.

below that. It is all talk, you haven't done anything for them. We

:24:40.:24:43.

have made sure they have an increasing minimum wage, it has gone

:24:44.:24:47.

up more under us than any other previous government. Their wages

:24:48.:24:54.

will be still lower in real terms. Let me come on to this plan for

:24:55.:24:59.

housing. We have announced a new plan to increase affordable housing,

:25:00.:25:04.

social housing, some council housing and social housing built by the

:25:05.:25:08.

associations. How much money is behind this? It is part of the 1.4

:25:09.:25:12.

billion announced in the Autumn Statement. How many homes will you

:25:13.:25:20.

get for 1.4 billion? That depends on the negotiations with local

:25:21.:25:22.

authorities. It is local authorities, who know the area best.

:25:23.:25:30.

I will not put a number on that. 1.4 billion, if you price the house at

:25:31.:25:34.

100,000, which is very low, particularly for the South, back at

:25:35.:25:40.

you 14,000 new homes. That is it. What we have seen before, how the

:25:41.:25:45.

local government can leveraged to build thousands more homes. That is

:25:46.:25:48.

what we want to see across the country. It is not just about the

:25:49.:25:53.

money, for a lot of local authorities it is about the

:25:54.:25:56.

expertise and knowledge on how to do this. That is why support from the

:25:57.:26:02.

housing communities minister will help. What is the timescale, how

:26:03.:26:07.

many more affordable homes will be built? I will not put a number on

:26:08.:26:13.

it. You announced it today, so you cannot tell me how many more or what

:26:14.:26:18.

the target is? It is a matter of working with the local authorities

:26:19.:26:21.

who know what their local needs are, what land they have got available.

:26:22.:26:25.

What we saw through the local elections with the Metro mayors,

:26:26.:26:29.

they want to deliver in their areas, whether it is the West of England,

:26:30.:26:33.

the north-east, Liverpool, Manchester and we want to work with

:26:34.:26:38.

them. You have said variations of this for the past seven years and I

:26:39.:26:42.

want some credibility. When you cannot tell us how much money, what

:26:43.:26:48.

the target and timescale is, and this government, under which

:26:49.:26:51.

affordable house building has fallen to a 24 year low. 1.2 million

:26:52.:26:57.

families are on waiting lists for social housing to rent. That is your

:26:58.:27:03.

record. Why should we believe a word you say? This is different to what

:27:04.:27:07.

we have been doing over the last two years. We want to develop and have a

:27:08.:27:12.

strong and stable economy that can sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This

:27:13.:27:19.

is important. In 2010, we inherited the lowest level of house building,

:27:20.:27:25.

75,000 new homes. That is about 189,000 over the last four years.

:27:26.:27:30.

That is a big step forward after the crash, getting people back into the

:27:31.:27:34.

industry. More first-time buyers onto the market. Final question, in

:27:35.:27:45.

2010, 2011, your first year in government, there were 60,000

:27:46.:27:50.

affordable homes built. May not be enough, but last day it was 30 2000.

:27:51.:27:58.

So why should we trust anything you say about this? On housing, we have

:27:59.:28:05.

delivered. We have delivered more social housing. Double what Labour

:28:06.:28:11.

did in 13 years, in just five years. This is what this policy is about,

:28:12.:28:15.

working with local authorities to deliver more homes to people in

:28:16.:28:16.

their local areas. Thank you. Now, they have a deficit

:28:17.:28:20.

of between 15 and 20% in the polls, but Jeremy Corbyn and those

:28:21.:28:23.

around him insist Labour can win. If the polls are right they've got

:28:24.:28:26.

three and half weeks to change voters' minds and persuade those

:28:27.:28:29.

fabled undecided voters We enlisted the polling organisation

:28:30.:28:31.

YouGov to help us find out how the performance of party leaders

:28:32.:28:36.

will affect behaviour Leeds, a city of three quarters

:28:37.:28:38.

of a million people, eight Parliamentary seats and home

:28:39.:28:47.

to our very own focus group. Our panel was recruited

:28:48.:28:52.

from a variety of backgrounds and the majority say they haven't

:28:53.:28:55.

decided who to vote for yet. Watching behind the glass,

:28:56.:28:59.

two experts on different sides Giles Cunningham, who headed up

:29:00.:29:01.

political press at Downing Street under David Cameron

:29:02.:29:08.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter, under David Cameron

:29:09.:29:14.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter, I think Theresa May sees herself

:29:15.:29:16.

as a pound shop Thatcher. Milliband's policies but when it

:29:17.:29:21.

came about who you want,

:29:22.:29:41.

if you wake up on maybe a 2015, We found in a couple of focus

:29:42.:29:45.

groups, people saying we'd be quite relieved,

:29:46.:29:48.

even though some of those same people have been saying we quite

:29:49.:29:51.

like the Labour policies. I think the fact that Corbyn's

:29:52.:29:53.

going so hard on his values, this is a really progressive

:29:54.:29:57.

manifesto, they live But I think that's a new challenge,

:29:58.:29:59.

that wasn't there in 2015. Is there anyone here that

:30:00.:30:04.

you don't recognise? After a little warm up,

:30:05.:30:06.

the first exercise, recognising I think it's nice to have a strong

:30:07.:30:08.

woman in politics, I do. But I've got to say,

:30:09.:30:14.

when she comes on the news, I kind of do think,

:30:15.:30:17.

here we go again. Tell me about Tim Farron, what

:30:18.:30:19.

are your impressions of Tim Farron? It isn't going to do anything,

:30:20.:30:22.

it isn't going to change anything. You'll be surprised to hear it's

:30:23.:30:26.

actually the Greens. Strong and stable leadership

:30:27.:30:35.

in the national interest. Yes, Team May, it's

:30:36.:30:48.

the British equivalent of make What do we think about this one

:30:49.:30:52.

for the many and not the few? It's not quite as bad

:30:53.:31:02.

as strong and stable, but it will probably get

:31:03.:31:04.

on our nerves after a while. We must seize that chance today

:31:05.:31:07.

and every day until June the 8th. But that's not quite my

:31:08.:31:18.

question, my question is, if you are Prime Minister,

:31:19.:31:25.

we will leave, come hell or high water, whatever is on the table

:31:26.:31:28.

at the end of the negotiations? If we win the election,

:31:29.:31:31.

we'll get a good deal with Europe. Assertive and in control

:31:32.:31:34.

and he felt comfortable But the second one, I thought

:31:35.:31:36.

he was very hesitant. I thought he was kind of,

:31:37.:31:41.

hovering around, skirting around and that's the second

:31:42.:31:50.

time I've seen a similar interview with the question

:31:51.:31:52.

being asked regarding Brexit. I don't think I'd have

:31:53.:31:54.

any confidence with him You think you are going up

:31:55.:31:56.

against some quite strong people, how are you going to stand

:31:57.:32:00.

up for us? When you are in negotiations,

:32:01.:32:02.

you need to be tough. And actually is right

:32:03.:32:07.

to be tough sometimes, particularly when you are doing

:32:08.:32:09.

something for the country. There's a reason for talking

:32:10.:32:11.

about strong and stable leadership. It's about the future

:32:12.:32:14.

of the country, it's It's just that people kind of listen

:32:15.:32:16.

to that kind of thing and think Both on The One Show

:32:17.:32:20.

and in the news. She attracts the public better

:32:21.:32:26.

than what Corbyn does. She didn't answer the question

:32:27.:32:32.

in a more articular way than Corbyn Imagine that Theresa

:32:33.:32:35.

May is an animal. So, in your minds,

:32:36.:32:41.

what animal is coming to mind I've done a Pekinese because I think

:32:42.:32:44.

she's all bark and no bite. Alpaca because she's

:32:45.:32:58.

superior looking and woolly I don't think his policies

:32:59.:33:04.

are for the modern, real world. A mouse because they are weak

:33:05.:33:20.

and they can be easily bullied, but also they can catch

:33:21.:33:23.

you by surprise if you're What do you take away

:33:24.:33:26.

from what you saw then, and what message would you send back

:33:27.:33:34.

to the Tories now? I think what came over is people see

:33:35.:33:36.

Theresa May as a strong politician, not everyone likes her,

:33:37.:33:40.

but you don't need to be liked to be elected,

:33:41.:33:42.

because ultimately it's about who do you trust with your future

:33:43.:33:45.

and your security. I think what I also take out

:33:46.:33:47.

of that focus group, was it was a group of floating

:33:48.:33:49.

voters, there was no huge appetite for the Lib Dems and there was no

:33:50.:33:52.

huge appetite for Ukip. So my messaged back to CCHQ

:33:53.:33:55.

would be stick to the plan. I thought the response

:33:56.:33:58.

to the manifesto was excellent. It's clear that people aren't

:33:59.:34:01.

particularly keen on Theresa May, There are some associations with her

:34:02.:34:04.

about strength and stability, which is exactly what the Tory party

:34:05.:34:09.

want of course, but they are not positive and nobody thinks

:34:10.:34:12.

that she has a vision So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn,

:34:13.:34:14.

what I'd say to the Labour Party is, they need to really emphasise

:34:15.:34:21.

the manifesto in Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform

:34:22.:34:22.

out of his skin and I think he has to reemphasise those

:34:23.:34:29.

characteristics which may be have come to the fore may be

:34:30.:34:31.

over the last 12 months, resilience, strength and the fact

:34:32.:34:34.

that he's come this far, why not take that final step and go

:34:35.:34:37.

into ten Downing Street? We're joined now by the American

:34:38.:34:39.

political consultant For the sake of this discussion,

:34:40.:34:47.

assume the polls at the moment are broadly right, is there any hope for

:34:48.:34:54.

Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters? Know, and this is a very serious

:34:55.:35:00.

collection with serious consequences to who wins. Nobody cares whether

:35:01.:35:03.

you can draw and what animal they represent, they want to know where

:35:04.:35:08.

they stand, and I felt that was frivolous. I come to Britain to

:35:09.:35:12.

watch elections because I learned from here. Your elections are more

:35:13.:35:17.

substantial, more serious, more policy and less about personality

:35:18.:35:21.

and that peace was only about personality. That's partly because

:35:22.:35:26.

Mrs May has decided to make this a presidential election. You can see

:35:27.:35:35.

on the posters it is all Team May. I agree with that, and in her language

:35:36.:35:43.

she says not everyone benefits from a Conservative government, I don't

:35:44.:35:47.

see how using anything Republicans have used in the past. In fact her

:35:48.:35:52.

campaign is more of a centrist Democrats but it is a smart strategy

:35:53.:35:56.

because it pushes Corbyn further to the left. Of course you said Hillary

:35:57.:36:02.

Clinton have won. On election night the polling was so bad in America,

:36:03.:36:06.

the exit polls that were done, the BBC told America she had won. No, I

:36:07.:36:12.

was anchoring the programme that night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC

:36:13.:36:20.

had the same numbers. Yes, but we did not say she had won, I can

:36:21.:36:25.

assure you of that. Because of people like you we thought she had

:36:26.:36:31.

but we didn't broadcast it. That was a smart approach. My point is other

:36:32.:36:38.

than teasing you, maybe there is hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you

:36:39.:36:43.

will have one of the lowest turnout in modern history and I think Labour

:36:44.:36:48.

will fall to one of the lowest percentages, not percentage of

:36:49.:36:51.

number of seats they have had, and this will be a matter of

:36:52.:36:55.

soul-searching for both political parties. What you do with a sizeable

:36:56.:37:01.

majority, and she has a responsibility to tell the British

:37:02.:37:04.

people exactly what happens as she moves forward. He and Labour will

:37:05.:37:10.

have to take a look at whether they still represent a significant slice

:37:11.:37:15.

of the British population. Do you see a realignment in British

:37:16.:37:20.

politics taking place? I see a crumbling of the left and yet there

:37:21.:37:24.

is still a significant percentage of the British population that once

:37:25.:37:28.

someone who is centre-left. And they like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies.

:37:29.:37:37.

I'm listening to Michael foot. I went to school here in the 1980s and

:37:38.:37:40.

I feel like I'm watching the Labour Party of 35 years ago, in a

:37:41.:37:42.

population that wants to focus on the future, not the past. Thank you.

:37:43.:37:49.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:50.:37:51.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:52.:37:54.

Hello. Welcome to Sunday Politics East.

:37:55.:38:05.

Later in the programme why, in some places,

:38:06.:38:08.

you will not be able to vote for parties like these,

:38:09.:38:11.

But first, new figures show just how much pressure the health service

:38:12.:38:18.

The latest survey for cancelled operations shows that, between

:38:19.:38:21.

surgery in our hospitals was delayed on 2,745 occasions.

:38:22.:38:27.

Parts of Essex and Norfolk have already cut IVF for women

:38:28.:38:33.

And these are the latest numbers for NHS staff shortages.

:38:34.:38:43.

3,400 nurses are needed to fill vacancies here.

:38:44.:38:49.

according to the latest figures from the Royal College of Nursing.

:38:50.:38:56.

So, how are the political parties pledging to help?

:38:57.:38:58.

As political footballs go, the NHS is used to getting a good kicking.

:38:59.:39:07.

Last year, it was a carrot to court Brexit votes.

:39:08.:39:09.

Now, it has being fought over by the main parties.

:39:10.:39:12.

I have come here to Great Yarmouth, to meet a lady

:39:13.:39:20.

who is recuperating here after a knee operation -

:39:21.:39:23.

a knee operation which was cancelled four times.

:39:24.:39:27.

Lesley Joseph does like a stroll along the prom,

:39:28.:39:30.

but getting a new knee was no stroll, when her routine operation

:39:31.:39:33.

At the fourth time, she was already actually prepped for surgery.

:39:34.:39:42.

I also heard that they were cancelling people's cancer

:39:43.:39:44.

treatment, which I thought was shocking, because you need to have

:39:45.:39:46.

that treatment, more so than a knee or hip operation.

:39:47.:39:56.

We worked hard to help keep the National Health

:39:57.:39:58.

Service running and it has ended up running down.

:39:59.:40:02.

In many ways, Lesley is one of the lucky ones,

:40:03.:40:13.

because at least, in the end, she did get her surgery.

:40:14.:40:16.

But many routine operations are being cancelled or delayed

:40:17.:40:18.

to save money. It is called health rationing.

:40:19.:40:22.

People like smokers and the overweight are being told they

:40:23.:40:24.

One-fifth of clinical commissioning groups are already doing this.

:40:25.:40:30.

Tony Durkin speaks for the RCN Essex, where the

:40:31.:40:36.

health rationing for the likes of smokers and overweight people is one

:40:37.:40:38.

The NHS has always had to prioritise, but he says

:40:39.:40:43.

Every day, doctors, nurses and others are having to

:40:44.:40:49.

make choices about who needs an operation, who can wait for an

:40:50.:40:51.

operation, and who can come into the hospital and who cannot.

:40:52.:40:54.

If you require urgent care, you require urgent care.

:40:55.:40:59.

If you need routine care, how long can we wait until that

:41:00.:41:02.

operation or treatment needs to occur?

:41:03.:41:03.

It should not be about obesity and it should not be about smoking,

:41:04.:41:07.

but about how could we keep that person reasonably fit and well

:41:08.:41:10.

before they actually do need that operation?

:41:11.:41:18.

So, what are the parties promising, to keep the wheels turning?

:41:19.:41:20.

No manifesto yet from the Conservatives, but they have

:41:21.:41:22.

already been talking about an extra 10,000 mental health staff.

:41:23.:41:28.

Labour's leaked draft manifesto pledged ?6 billion,

:41:29.:41:31.

although how they would pay for it is not manifest.

:41:32.:41:35.

And the Liberal Democrats would put on 1p in the ?1 on tax.

:41:36.:41:38.

I would be prepared to pay more, but I cannot afford it.

:41:39.:41:42.

I think they do a good job. I lost my husband last year

:41:43.:41:45.

and they were marvellous. I would be prepared to pay more.

:41:46.:41:50.

I do not think we should have to do that.

:41:51.:41:53.

I think enough money should be brought forward for the NHS

:41:54.:41:55.

The pressing problem is staffing, which we suffer from in the East

:41:56.:42:03.

particularly the rapid growth of over-85s, who need more care.

:42:04.:42:07.

According to the latest figures from the RCN,

:42:08.:42:10.

there are at least 3,400 nursing vacancies in the East alone.

:42:11.:42:14.

These trainee nurses, soon to graduate at the

:42:15.:42:18.

University of Northampton, will fill some of these gaps.

:42:19.:42:23.

They have been celebrating International Nurses Day,

:42:24.:42:25.

as they think about joining an NHS widely believed to be in crisis.

:42:26.:42:30.

When A is blocked when I walk into work, I can tell what type

:42:31.:42:35.

of day it is going to be by just looking in the corridors.

:42:36.:42:39.

The NHS is understaffed, so I thought I could make

:42:40.:42:42.

a difference if I train as an adult nurse, so that I could make

:42:43.:42:45.

We are running out of money, I think.

:42:46.:42:50.

But I love it, so we have got to keep it going.

:42:51.:42:53.

If we do not have nurses, where are we going to go?

:42:54.:42:57.

The Green Party, amongst others, say the

:42:58.:42:59.

funding gap for the NHS is actually around ?30 billion.

:43:00.:43:03.

But whatever it is, the service is a supermassive black

:43:04.:43:06.

hole, a money pit, and whatever it gets, it will always be

:43:07.:43:09.

It will eat it up and still come back for more.

:43:10.:43:16.

Well, Jeremy Hunt was at the Princess Alexandra Hospital

:43:17.:43:18.

in Harlow this week and we asked him about nurse shortages.

:43:19.:43:23.

Well, if you look at this hospital, there are 35 more

:43:24.:43:26.

We are seeing more doctors and nurses across the NHS,

:43:27.:43:30.

But there are thousands of vacancies.

:43:31.:43:33.

Yes, but the trick is, we need to train more and

:43:34.:43:36.

that is why we are seeing record numbers of nurses

:43:37.:43:39.

being trained, record numbers of doctors being trained.

:43:40.:43:40.

And that, in the end, for the people of Harlow,

:43:41.:43:47.

Here with me are Councillor Peter Reeve for Ukip,

:43:48.:43:49.

Rupert Read for the Green Party and Sir Bob Russell, who is standing

:43:50.:43:52.

All these vacancies be filled? The reality is, that is a funding

:43:53.:44:15.

problem which has to be addressed. We are the only party with joined up

:44:16.:44:21.

the NHS I tackling the likes of air the NHS I tackling the likes of air

:44:22.:44:30.

quality pollution. To tackle stress problems. Only by having that joined

:44:31.:44:35.

up approach on prevention which we do, can you get the long-term

:44:36.:44:37.

funding of the NHS fireball. Colchester Hospital has

:44:38.:44:43.

faced huge challenges. And it is not going

:44:44.:44:44.

to get any better. Nurse numbers going down,

:44:45.:44:48.

population increasing, Colchester had the ?21 million

:44:49.:45:03.

deficit. That is the picture across the region. If it was not for all

:45:04.:45:13.

these medical people from the European Union, without that stuff

:45:14.:45:22.

whose future know is very uncertain, the situation in the NHS would be

:45:23.:45:27.

even worse. We are promising to put that 1p on income tax cuts we need

:45:28.:45:31.

to raise the money. Under the to raise the money. Under the

:45:32.:45:36.

Conservative Party, the NHS is not safe. We will look at the European

:45:37.:45:50.

Union Sabre. No one is arguing that we will not let people and with the

:45:51.:45:57.

rate skill and ability into the country after we leave the

:45:58.:45:58.

Union. But many of these workers are Union. But many of these workers are

:45:59.:46:04.

not from the European Union. They are from oak with the. But how is

:46:05.:46:12.

this going to be paid for? We are the only party being truthful about

:46:13.:46:21.

this. People are being fleeced by another policy announcement by

:46:22.:46:27.

taxation rises. We are fairly clear. We will reduce foreign need in order

:46:28.:46:34.

to pay for the NHS. We are the only party who are honest about putting

:46:35.:46:41.

British people first. But what about the Green party? We will reasoning

:46:42.:46:49.

billion pounds by reducing foreign aid. We want a proper NHS. All of

:46:50.:47:02.

the other parties are not supporting properly the NHS. If we get a

:47:03.:47:13.

landslide conservative government, privatisation will be speeded up.

:47:14.:47:17.

They are floating the idea that people will have to pay for doctors.

:47:18.:47:23.

The only solution is better clear and preventative measures. These two

:47:24.:47:33.

go hand-in-hand. Before the last Conservative government, they were

:47:34.:47:38.

less privatisations. Privatisation started under the Labour Party and.

:47:39.:47:43.

We need to stop the be Dover. At one point, Ukip was talking about

:47:44.:47:50.

an American-style insurance system. We are talking figures on the sides

:47:51.:47:53.

of buses again, are we? No, we have been said that foreign

:47:54.:48:03.

residents should not be allowed to come in here and use the NHS is a

:48:04.:48:11.

tourism venue. Health tourism needs to be stopped. Everybody coming into

:48:12.:48:18.

this country needs to have health insurance so that they pay the way.

:48:19.:48:25.

It is not just about finance. It is about training. The shortage in

:48:26.:48:30.

nursing staff has been there for a long time. When we are talking about

:48:31.:48:37.

nurses may be having to pay their own tuition fees, we are harking

:48:38.:48:43.

back to previous claims. But he were agree it is a huge challenge?

:48:44.:48:46.

Undoubtedly. Now, it seems this snap election

:48:47.:48:49.

is proving to be unusual in more It has emerged that some parties

:48:50.:48:52.

are making calculations Although Ukip may struggle

:48:53.:48:55.

to get any of its own MPs into Parliament this election,

:48:56.:48:59.

it could still have a big impact And the Green Party has stood down

:49:00.:49:01.

in North Norfolk, to support The move follows Ukip's

:49:02.:49:06.

announcement that it would not field a candidate

:49:07.:49:15.

in North Norfolk, in Mr Lamb, who is anti-Brexit,

:49:16.:49:17.

anti-Brexit, has more than 8,000 people

:49:18.:49:20.

voted for Ukip. So, Ukip is calling on its

:49:21.:49:25.

supporters to vote Conservative. The people who voted

:49:26.:49:28.

Ukip in 2015, I do not think they will naturally

:49:29.:49:30.

gravitate to the Conservatives. I think many of them will have

:49:31.:49:32.

supported Norman and the Liberal Democrats in the past

:49:33.:49:35.

and we will be working hard to Ukip has also decided not

:49:36.:49:38.

to stand in Peterborough, where Conservative Stuart Jackson

:49:39.:49:47.

has a majority of just under 2,000 Ukip hopes the 7,000 people

:49:48.:49:49.

who voted for them two years ago will now back Mr Jackson,

:49:50.:49:54.

to ensure a pro-Brexit is elected. I guess it will be helpful,

:49:55.:50:01.

because a lot of these Ukip voters were formerly Conservative

:50:02.:50:04.

voters and I think people now realise that there is really not

:50:05.:50:06.

much point in voting Ukip. Theresa May is going to take

:50:07.:50:09.

us out and we need all Labour, which is standing in both

:50:10.:50:13.

North Norfolk and Peterborough, is dismissive of the move

:50:14.:50:22.

and believes many Ukip voters People have voted Ukip

:50:23.:50:25.

for many reasons, not least, to leave the European Union,

:50:26.:50:29.

which has happened. But they also voted Ukip because

:50:30.:50:31.

they were worried about housing, affordable housing, public

:50:32.:50:33.

services, the NHS the NHS. And those are the things Labour

:50:34.:50:35.

are now promising to deliver on. And you can see a full list

:50:36.:50:44.

of who is standing in North Norfolk Ukip has also announced that it

:50:45.:50:47.

will not be standing against keen Tory Brexiteers,

:50:48.:50:51.

like Philip Hollobone or, more surprisingly,

:50:52.:50:53.

Labour's Kelvin Hopkins. In fact, Ukip is not fielding any

:50:54.:50:57.

candidate across Bedfordshire, It is taking on

:50:58.:51:00.

Labour's Gavin Shuker who both supported Remain

:51:01.:51:09.

in the referendum. I am joined by Professor

:51:10.:51:12.

Paul Whiteley, from Is this a new phenomenon -

:51:13.:51:14.

parties deciding not to To some extent. But I do not think

:51:15.:51:35.

Ukip are being totally honest when they are talking about these

:51:36.:51:46.

strategic reasons. They are not fighting at a number of seats where

:51:47.:51:53.

they are incumbent Eurosceptics. A local level, it looks like a number

:51:54.:51:58.

of the candidates have dropped out. They were badly hit by the local

:51:59.:52:03.

elections and they are concerned about losing deposits in the

:52:04.:52:09.

election. I think the performance has been pure.

:52:10.:52:12.

Is what we are seeing a political move or is it practical -

:52:13.:52:15.

down to a lack of resources, money and candidates?

:52:16.:52:21.

They are trying to pit eat good course on a bad situation after what

:52:22.:52:28.

amounted to a disaster at the local elections.

:52:29.:52:30.

And in your experience, do voters mind being told

:52:31.:52:32.

to "lend their vote" to another party?

:52:33.:52:38.

There are a number of organisations planning to do this. But when we do

:52:39.:52:47.

any surveys of individual members of the public, whether they will vote

:52:48.:52:54.

tactically, only about 5% ever see that the will. There could be

:52:55.:52:58.

important in some constituencies, but overall in the country as a

:52:59.:53:04.

whole, it is not that important. In the case of Ukip, they are

:53:05.:53:08.

perpetually feuding fewer candidates across the country than the Green

:53:09.:53:10.

party. -- feuding. The After last week's local election

:53:11.:53:19.

defeats, is it the end for Ukip? eight do not. In the elections in

:53:20.:53:34.

France, the National front, which is similar, got 11 million votes in

:53:35.:53:44.

France. They represent a constituency which still exists in

:53:45.:53:48.

Britain and in the rest of Europe. People who feel left behind. They

:53:49.:53:53.

feel the government does not work for them. That will continue. If

:53:54.:54:01.

Brexit it proves to be a huge problem and create economic problems

:54:02.:54:07.

in this region, then I think support for the year will come back. But at

:54:08.:54:11.

the moment, the other at the low point. You are putting a positive

:54:12.:54:22.

gloss on this. It is all about resources. The last thing for your

:54:23.:54:33.

speaker said was true, but I was rather sceptical about the rest of

:54:34.:54:44.

it. It is not just about Brexit. For many people who voted for us and we

:54:45.:54:50.

saw this play out in the local elections, the Prime Minister

:54:51.:55:01.

basically said Brexit was in danger because the Liberal Democrats and

:55:02.:55:04.

the Labour Party will gang up. You will not get what you democratically

:55:05.:55:10.

opted for. Many people are believing the Prime Minister. They were very

:55:11.:55:18.

worried about the Liberal Democrats and Labour policy on Brexit. That

:55:19.:55:25.

puts us in a difficult position. We do not want Brexit to be

:55:26.:55:35.

compromised. We guarantee she will start backtracking like you have

:55:36.:55:37.

never seen before and after the selection. How do you feel about the

:55:38.:55:47.

situation in North Norfolk? We have got people via whom 812 fought for

:55:48.:55:53.

the Green party but they are being denied that. There's a tiny handful

:55:54.:56:04.

of seats which may be contentious, with the result is not certain. But

:56:05.:56:10.

we think it is important they are to have cooperation with other parties.

:56:11.:56:16.

In the vast majority of seats, there will be a party from the Green

:56:17.:56:20.

party. But one consequence of the stupid election system is that

:56:21.:56:25.

people can vote for whoever they want. Many of the seats are already

:56:26.:56:37.

predetermined, which is another reason that we need proportional

:56:38.:56:44.

representation. Norman Lamb has been terrific. You are grateful for the

:56:45.:56:56.

support of Green party voters? I am happy for the support of anyone who

:56:57.:57:01.

recognises the work that Norman Lamb has done there. The last thing this

:57:02.:57:05.

country wants is a landslide for the country wants is a landslide for the

:57:06.:57:07.

Conservative government. Now, sealed with a kiss,

:57:08.:57:14.

in our our 60 Second round-up of the week,

:57:15.:57:16.

with Deborah McGurran. On the first day of proper

:57:17.:57:18.

campaigning for the general election,

:57:19.:57:20.

Theresa May came to Norwich, with a promise that Brexit

:57:21.:57:21.

will open up new job for the region. The enthusiasm of

:57:22.:57:34.

the young people shows that I think this is going to be

:57:35.:57:36.

great, in ensuring they have got the skills needed for the jobs

:57:37.:57:39.

of the future, but also in developing

:57:40.:57:41.

the economy of the future. School funding in Cambridgeshire

:57:42.:57:43.

came under the spotlight this week, where there are long-running

:57:44.:57:46.

concerns about per-pupil We can get that, partly by scrapping

:57:47.:57:47.

some of the Tory vanity projects there are, like the huge

:57:48.:57:54.

amounts of money being put towards new free schools,

:57:55.:57:57.

school which are undersubscribed, which do not have

:57:58.:57:59.

enough people coming in. The important thing about this is,

:58:00.:58:05.

what employers tell me they need is skilled workers.

:58:06.:58:08.

And it is our education system which will provide

:58:09.:58:10.

these skills in the future. And Paul Nuttall took

:58:11.:58:12.

the fight to Basildon, in the wake of Ukip's county council

:58:13.:58:14.

defeats last week. It has been a difficult

:58:15.:58:17.

time for the party. What Ukip needs to do is stay

:58:18.:58:19.

on the pitch, because if it does, our positive policies will come

:58:20.:58:22.

back onto the table. And the party leader was happy

:58:23.:58:25.

to demonstrate that his enthusiasm Education.

:58:26.:58:28.

The fair funding formula. Would the Lib Dems re

:58:29.:58:39.

calculate the fair funding We believe in additional funding.

:58:40.:58:53.

?400 million across the east of England. I am supporting the union

:58:54.:58:58.

campaign to stop the privatisation of education. Never mind the NHS

:58:59.:59:06.

being privatised, we are also seeing education being privatised.

:59:07.:59:13.

Remember, Margaret Thatcher did away with more grammar schools than any

:59:14.:59:15.

previous Education Secretary. You want to get rid of academies,

:59:16.:59:18.

but their track record on raising standards in failing

:59:19.:59:21.

schools is a good one. Academies do not act as easy a

:59:22.:59:35.

school which takes and everyone in the local area, so that is a sense

:59:36.:59:41.

of bias. We have other key priorities for education. We want

:59:42.:59:45.

children out into the natural world, rather than being stuck behind a

:59:46.:59:50.

desk. That is proven to be better for the health. And we want to stop

:59:51.:59:57.

all you shouldn't. Not just pollution from the atmosphere but

:59:58.:00:02.

the likes of pollution from advertising. The likes of

:00:03.:00:04.

Scandinavian countries have done that.

:00:05.:00:06.

You want to bring back grammar schools, yet scrap GCSEs

:00:07.:00:08.

for those who decided to go down the technical qualifications route.

:00:09.:00:11.

Doesn't that feel like the old grammar versus secondary moderns?

:00:12.:00:15.

More than technical colleges are nothing like the old comprehensives.

:00:16.:00:24.

But the real issue is how we fund education properly. Smoke and

:00:25.:00:28.

mirrors from the traditional parties. We have seen an 8% cut in

:00:29.:00:37.

education funding. Teachers cannot do their job properly. It is not

:00:38.:00:42.

often you see people in public service standing out scene, our

:00:43.:00:48.

industry is terribly underfunded. We will be back next

:00:49.:00:52.

week with the latest Tories are saying. It is a very

:00:53.:00:57.

emotive subject and we have run out of time.

:00:58.:01:04.

On Thursday nominations closed in the 650 parliamentary

:01:05.:01:09.

seats across the country, so now we know exactly who's

:01:10.:01:11.

We've been analysing the parties' candidates to find out

:01:12.:01:19.

what they might tell us about the make-up of the House

:01:20.:01:21.

Well, we know Theresa May is committed to delivering Brexit and

:01:22.:01:26.

analysis of Conservative candidates has shown that

:01:27.:01:31.

in their top 100 target seats, 37 candidates supported leave

:01:32.:01:33.

during last year's referendum campaign

:01:34.:01:41.

and 20 supported remain; 43 have not made public

:01:42.:01:43.

In the last parliament, the vast majority of Labour MPs

:01:44.:01:49.

were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how supportive are Labour

:01:50.:01:52.

Well, of 50 of Labour's top 100 target seats

:01:53.:01:58.

17 candidates have expressed support for Mr Corbyn.

:01:59.:02:01.

20 candidates supported Owen Smith in last year's leadership contest

:02:02.:02:05.

or have expressed anti-Corbyn sentiment, and

:02:06.:02:09.

If they won those, the Labour benches would be

:02:10.:02:15.

marginally more sympathetic to Mr Corbyn than they are now.

:02:16.:02:18.

What do the figures tell us about where the other

:02:19.:02:20.

Well, the Lib Dems have decided not to stand against the Greens

:02:21.:02:24.

in Brighton Pavilion, and are fielding 629

:02:25.:02:26.

candidates this year - that's two fewer than 2015.

:02:27.:02:28.

The number of Ukip candidates has fallen dramatically.

:02:29.:02:32.

They are standing in 247 fewer constituencies than 2015,

:02:33.:02:38.

throwing their support behind solidly pro-Brexit Tories

:02:39.:02:41.

in some areas such as Lewes and Norfolk North.

:02:42.:02:45.

The Greens are fielding 103 fewer candidates

:02:46.:02:49.

than at the last election, standing down to help

:02:50.:02:59.

other progressive candidates in some places.

:03:00.:03:06.

The most liking statistic is the demise in Ukip candidates, is this

:03:07.:03:18.

their swansong? And I think so. It is remarkable how few Ukip

:03:19.:03:25.

candidates are standing. It is hard to see they will suddenly revive in

:03:26.:03:28.

the next couple of years. I think this is probably the end. Frank

:03:29.:03:38.

Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of the left was a feature of this

:03:39.:03:43.

election, but also there is the consolidation of the right, and if

:03:44.:03:45.

you take the things together that could explain why the polls are

:03:46.:03:50.

where they are. Absolutely, that's precisely what happened at the start

:03:51.:03:55.

of the 1980s, the right was incredibly united and that's when we

:03:56.:04:00.

started talking about majorities of over 100 or so. No matter what the

:04:01.:04:08.

size of Theresa May's majority, it will be the total collapse of Ukip,

:04:09.:04:12.

but not just because we are now leaving the EU and that was their

:04:13.:04:18.

only reason for being, but a whole lot of people voted for Ukip because

:04:19.:04:22.

they felt the Tories were no longer listening. Theresa May has given the

:04:23.:04:30.

impression that she is listening, and that is the biggest possible

:04:31.:04:33.

thing that could happen to the Tory vote. Fragmentation of the left,

:04:34.:04:41.

consolidation of the right? It's one of the lessons that is never learnt,

:04:42.:04:47.

it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't take much for the whole thing to

:04:48.:04:52.

fracture so now you have on the centre-left the SNP, the Labour

:04:53.:04:58.

Party, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats all competing for the same

:04:59.:05:03.

votes and when you have, fleetingly perhaps, large numbers coalescing on

:05:04.:05:06.

the right in one party, there is only going to be one outcome. It

:05:07.:05:12.

happens regularly. It doesn't mean the Tories haven't got their own

:05:13.:05:18.

fragility. Two years ago, David Cameron and George Osborne the

:05:19.:05:21.

dominant figures, neither are in Parliament now which is a symptom of

:05:22.:05:26.

the fragility this election is disguising. Mrs May's position in a

:05:27.:05:31.

way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on

:05:32.:05:36.

the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in France, I won't be outflanked on the

:05:37.:05:40.

right, so the National Front didn't get through either timed he ran to

:05:41.:05:44.

the second round on like this time, and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be

:05:45.:05:51.

outflanked Iver and as a result has seen off right flank. And also she

:05:52.:05:55.

is looking to the left as well with some of the state interventions.

:05:56.:05:58.

What was interesting about the analysis you showed a few minutes

:05:59.:06:01.

ago was the number of Tory candidates who have apparently not

:06:02.:06:07.

declared which way they voted in the referendum, and you would have

:06:08.:06:11.

thought if this election was all about Brexit, as some would claim,

:06:12.:06:15.

that would become an unsustainable position, and actually more it's

:06:16.:06:20.

about leadership. But the point that I'm now hearing from a number of

:06:21.:06:25.

Labour candidates that they are seeing Tory leaflets that don't even

:06:26.:06:31.

have the Tory candidate's name on them, it is just about Theresa May.

:06:32.:06:36.

I am glad they are keeping to the law because by law they have to put

:06:37.:06:40.

it on. It has been harder for some of the smaller parties too because

:06:41.:06:46.

of the speed of the election being called. We have the manifesto is

:06:47.:06:53.

coming out this week. I think Labour Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet

:06:54.:06:57.

sure when the Tories will bring bears out. I suggest one thing, it

:06:58.:07:01.

will at least for people like me bring an end to the question you

:07:02.:07:08.

will have to wait for the manifesto. And Rebecca Long baby will never

:07:09.:07:12.

have that excuse again, isn't it wonderful! She is not the only one.

:07:13.:07:22.

When you are trying to take the north and Midlands from Labour, I

:07:23.:07:27.

would go to one or the other. For me, I can barely hold back my

:07:28.:07:32.

excitement over the Tory manifesto. This will be, I think, the most

:07:33.:07:36.

important day for the British government for the next five years.

:07:37.:07:44.

That wasn't irony there? You actually meant that? I'm not even

:07:45.:07:50.

being cynical at all on Sunday Politics! This is a huge day and

:07:51.:07:57.

it's because I think we will see... I don't think Mrs May will play it

:07:58.:08:01.

safe and I don't think we will get the broadbrush stuff that she might

:08:02.:08:06.

be advised to do. I think she will lay out precisely what you want to

:08:07.:08:11.

do over the next five years and take some big risks. Then finally after a

:08:12.:08:16.

year of this guessing and theorising, we will finally work out

:08:17.:08:20.

what Mrs May is all about. She will say she doesn't want the next

:08:21.:08:23.

parliament to be all about Brexit, though she knows that's the next

:08:24.:08:26.

important thing she has to deliver in some way, so she gets a mandate

:08:27.:08:31.

for that if the polls are right but she

:08:32.:08:42.

does have very different ideas from Mr Cameron about how to run a

:08:43.:08:46.

country. She will I assume one to mandate for what these different

:08:47.:08:48.

ideas are. Otherwise there is no point in holding an early election.

:08:49.:08:51.

You will get a majority, but if you get a mandate to carry on

:08:52.:08:54.

implementing the Cameron and Osborne manifesto it would be utterly

:08:55.:08:58.

pointless. I agree, it is the pivotal event of the election and it

:08:59.:09:01.

will be interesting to see the degree to which she expands on the

:09:02.:09:05.

line which interests me about its time to look at the good that

:09:06.:09:10.

government can do. Because in a way this moves the debate on in UK

:09:11.:09:17.

politics from, from 97 the Blair Brown governments were insecure

:09:18.:09:20.

about arguing about the role of government. Cameron Osborne

:09:21.:09:24.

government similarly so, so here you have a Labour Party talking about

:09:25.:09:29.

the role of government and the state, and Tory leader apparently

:09:30.:09:33.

doing so was well. I think that will be really interesting to see whether

:09:34.:09:37.

it is fleshed out in any significant way. And it is not a natural Tory

:09:38.:09:42.

message. Harold Macmillan talked about the role of the state, Ted

:09:43.:09:50.

Heath Mark two was pretty big on the state, the industrial policy and so

:09:51.:09:55.

on, and even if it is not thought to be that Tory, does she get away with

:09:56.:09:59.

it because she deliver such a big victory if that's what she does

:10:00.:10:04.

deliver? Just inject a little note of scepticism, I wonder how much of

:10:05.:10:09.

this is authentically Theresa May. I was interested to and talk to

:10:10.:10:18.

someone who used to sit in cabinet meetings during which Theresa May

:10:19.:10:20.

never expressed an opinion on anything outside the Home Office

:10:21.:10:24.

briefs. Other ministers were roving all over their colleagues' briefs.

:10:25.:10:32.

So where are the ideas coming from? I think we can point to Nick

:10:33.:10:40.

Timothy. One of her closest advisers in Downing Street. It will be

:10:41.:10:45.

interesting to see how that evolves. On Thursday I think we will all be

:10:46.:10:51.

talking about something called Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the

:10:52.:11:00.

suburb of Birmingham where Nick Timothy comes from, who is very much

:11:01.:11:05.

Theresa May's policy brain and leading inspiration. Urdington

:11:06.:11:11.

Toryism is about connecting the party with traditional working class

:11:12.:11:15.

voters, and their belief to do that is not just taking away government

:11:16.:11:20.

out of their lives but showing them that government can actually help

:11:21.:11:24.

their lives. It can be a force for good to rebuild the trust. A lot of

:11:25.:11:36.

what Mrs May talks about is all... It is talk and then a lot of it

:11:37.:11:39.

suddenly goes by the wayside. What happened to worker directors on the

:11:40.:11:48.

boards. It is designed to appeal to that constituency and then nothing

:11:49.:11:53.

happens. She had an excuse before in the sense that it wasn't in the 2015

:11:54.:11:58.

manifesto and she had a small majority so therefore she arguably

:11:59.:12:01.

had to water down some of the stuff for example in her Tory conference

:12:02.:12:06.

speech, which had a lot of this active government material in it. If

:12:07.:12:11.

she puts it in the manifesto, it is a sign she plans to do it and will

:12:12.:12:15.

have no excuse if she then gets nervous afterwards because it will

:12:16.:12:19.

be in there. If it wasn't for Brexit, this great overwhelming

:12:20.:12:25.

issue, I think this election will be seen as quite a significant

:12:26.:12:28.

development in terms of an argument around the role of government,

:12:29.:12:33.

much-needed. But Brexit unfortunately overshadows it all. As

:12:34.:12:38.

much as we like our arguments over the role of government we will hear

:12:39.:12:42.

strong and stable, stable and strong ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely,

:12:43.:12:50.

and we heard the same old lines from the Labour Party as well so they are

:12:51.:12:55.

all at it. It will be a fascinating week, stop talking it down! Thanks

:12:56.:12:59.

to our panel. The Daily Politics will be

:13:00.:13:01.

back on BBC Two at noon I'll be back here at the same time

:13:02.:13:04.

on BBC One next Sunday. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:05.:13:08.

it's the Sunday Politics. When it came to my TV habits,

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I'd watch anything... But now I can sign in online

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Andrew Neil and Stewart White are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and Home Office minister Brandon Lewis to discuss the party manifestos for the forthcoming general election. Plus American political pollster Frank Luntz, and a chat with undecided voters in Leeds. Journalists Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards review the papers.