04/05/2014 Sunday Politics London

Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Walls are being

re-painted in Belfast as Gerry Adams begins his fourth day in police

custody in connection with one of the most brutal and shocking murders

of the Troubles. That's our top story.

He may have got egg on his face this week but Nigel Farage is a serious

electoral threat in this month's elections. I'll ask the Conservative

Party Chairman Grant Shapps how worried he is.

And we're on the trail of Nick Clegg. You were voted the best

looking party leader and the most likely to be a good cook. But looks

aren't everything - we'll talk to the party's deputy leader as the

party faces oblivion in the European elections. In the capital this week,

questions of identity, immigration and independence. We have a table

full of Euro candidates here to debate what it means for London.

And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political panel in the

business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be

throwing metaphorical rotten eggs into the twittersphere.

First this morning - Gerry Adams, President of Sinn Fein, has spent a

fourth night in police custody after he was arrested in connection with

the killing of Jean McConville more than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has

claimed that the arrest is politically motivated coming, as it

does, during local and European election campaigns. Northern

Ireland's deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness, has indicated he

might review the party's support for policing in the province if Gerry

Adams is charged. The Jean McConville murder was one of the

most notorious cases of the Troubles.

The widowed mother of ten was kidnapped from her home in December

1972, never to be seen alive again. The IRA denied involvement but in

1999 admitted it had murdered her and several others, known as the

Disappeared. Before his death, the former IRA commander Brendan Hughes

pointed the finger at Gerry Adams, claiming:

In April this year, either Bell was charged with aiding and abetting the

murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams has always insisted he is innocent

of any part in the abduction and killing all burial of Mrs

McConville. We were hoping to speak to the

Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers, but having agreed to do an

interview with us this morning, she pulled out. But we are joined from

Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And

the police just doing their job by questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams

said publicly some time ago that he was available to speak to the

police, but that is not what this is about at the moment, because what we

have here is clearly evidence in our mind of political interference in

what should be due process. Gerry Adams made it clear some time ago he

wanted to speak to the police, it was available at any time, and yet

that request was not taken up until three weeks into an election and we

believe that was deliberately orchestrated by a small number of

people. What evidence can you present this morning that proves

that claim? The direct circumstances Gerry Adams finds himself in at the

moment, take that in stark contrast when they have dealt with members of

the British Army for instance... That is just circumstantial. The

PSNI know that the soldiers involved in that and a number of other

high-profile killings of citizens here, and not one of those people

has been arrested. In fact any of the people who were interviewed were

interviewed by request. There was a stark contrast, in terms of how they

have dealt with the British military involving state killings. We haven't

got too much time. Sinn Fein said it would review its support for the

PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That sounds like political interference

in the police process. It's not because we have a clear mandate from

the people who elect us. Policing has been an important part of the

peace process here for many years, Sinn Fein plays an important role in

local policing partnerships. We negotiate to make sure we have

powers transferred here to elected representatives in the north. It is

a long way to go before we have policing highly accountable, and

making sure they deliver a very impartial service. How will he react

if Gerry Adams is charged? I am still trying to get a clear answer.

If Gerry Adams is charged, will you withdraw support for the Northern

Ireland police service? We view this as a serious situation and a serious

ongoing situation and we will monitor how this pans out. We have a

very important role to play to support the police service here. We

have done consistently, worked with them on a daily basis, but we will

not accept political interference by a small number of people in the

police who are undermining the police. We will not accept political

policing. If there was evidence, and I emphasise the word if, because we

have seen none, but if there were evidence to justify Gerry Adams

being charged, why should he not be charged? It is my understanding from

the family of Gerry Adams that there has not been a single shred of

evidence put forward. I understand that, but if there was evidence, why

should he not be charged? You put that caveat yourself and then you

expect me to speculate, there is no way I will do that. The fact of the

matter is there hasn't been one single shred of evidence put to

Gerry Adams in the last few days, in fact what has been put to him is a

range of issues of newspaper cuttings, books, statements made

from people, including from people who didn't want their statements

released until they have died. who didn't want their statements

was charged, again I emphasise the word if, does the police process

fall apart? The police process is a fragile entity, it requires work and

we have been saying this publicly and privately with the Irish and

British and privately with the Irish and

process has to be nurtured and developed. We are not out of the

woods yet. From a Republican point of view we have been working flat

out. I just wanted a quick answer to my question, is a yes or no? What

question I asking me? Is the peace process in jeopardy? It is fragile

and I am not going to have words put into my mouth but I don't want to

use. It has to be worked out and nurtured. Thank you for joining us.

Nick Watt, you were a Northern Ireland correspondent like myself in

days gone by. Where is this going to go? It shows how challenging the

peace process is because on the one hand you have the unspeakable pain

of the McConville family, but you also have the danger of not having

mechanisms to deal with the past. South Africa is a good example, you

have to have some mechanism to deal with the past because if you don't,

you are going to have, as Sinn Fein have now, someone in a police cell

but you don't have the arrests of the Bloody Sunday soldiers.

Paramilitary prisoners were released after two years... We have seen no

action against somebody accused of the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a

one-way street. We have the decommissioning of IRA weapons by

the IRA, therefore destroying crucial evidence. You have these

inconsistencies because you don't have an mechanism for dealing with

the past, but doing that is really difficult because of the pain of

real people. Don't you get a feeling that here in London they are hoping

he will not be charged? Definitely because it would be nice if

everything went away, but the civil case of the family is taken out of

the hands of the police. You can see here a real failure in Westminster

to see this as anything other than settled. David Cameron we know sees

himself as a chairman. I was speaking to a friend in Northern

Ireland who said he has never met Gerry Adams and I think this is very

revealing. They consider this as a settled issue that will not trouble

Westminster again. It would be, but the relatives of the disappeared

don't want it to be settled. This points to the reality that the

Belfast agreement probably had to be done, but the moral price at which

it was purchased was far greater than we were willing to admit during

the euphoria. For a country that prides itself by the rule of law to

tolerate the early release of prisoners and former pal and

military -- paramilitaries, I think was a very serious matter. As for

the PSNI, it only exists because its predecessor failed to command the

confidence of the nationalist community. It is a very big deal if

even the PSNI ends up falling into the same trap. We have to is leave

it there I'm afraid. It was the Conservative's local election

campaign launch on Friday, and what did David Cameron focus on? Burning

local issues like the state of our roads, rubbish collection or care of

the elderly? No. It was Europe. The Prime Minister re-iterated again his

promise of an in-out referendum on our membership of the EU in 2017.

And it's being reported this morning that he will share a platform with

Nigel Farage in a pre-general election debate. Here's what the

UKIP leader had to say about the issue when he was on the Marr Show

this morning with Ed Miliband. David Cameron very often makes these vague

promises, then doesn't deliver afterwards. I don't think he has any

intention of allowing me into any of these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband

wants to debate? We have got to have the TV debates as we did join the

last general election. I think David Cameron is doing everything he can

to wriggle out of them. It is up to the broadcasters but whether they

invite Nigel. My main desire is that the debates go ahead. We are joined

now by Grant Shapps. Will he be included? The debates were not

without problems, they took place during the campaign period and

disrupted the flow of the campaign, taking it out of the regions, people

getting to speak to the leaders so a longer period for that would be

helpful. I think they are good idea and they should go ahead, but all of

the negotiation about who is involved is yet to happen. So it is

not a done deal that Nigel Farage will be included? That needs to be

negotiated with the TV companies. The Conservatives believe we should

have debates, but exactly the format and the timing, all of the -- that

will be debated in the autumn, but first we have European elections,

the Queen 's speech and a Scottish referendum. The local election

campaign was launched on Friday. Why did you talk more about Europe than

local councils? Both are important. The local elections are critically

important for people, their local services. It is easy to forget, for

example, that the council tax has been largely frozen since this

Government came to power, a big contrast to Dublin under the

previous Labour government. So why did you go on and on about Europe?

Let me show you the poster used to launch your local election campaign.

There it is, and in-out referendum on Europe, the day of the local

elections, where is the word local? Is it in small print? I hear what

you're saying, I am happy to be here to talk about the local elections.

But you are right, they are on the same day, and not many people know

that only by voting conservative can you get an in-out referendum. --

Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver, we can, it is the same date, so

people... This was the launch of the local election campaign. Why does

the Prime Minister have to keep on promising something he has already

promised? The actual referendum would be in 2017. He promised it

before, he keeps repeating it because he knows people don't really

trust him. I think it is a question of the fact that, actually, unless

you remind people that the pledges there, that the only way to get an

in-out referendum is to vote for it, this is a critical moment at

which we need people to vote for that referendum if they want it. It

is not the case, as I saw this morning, being said by Nigel Farage,

that a referendum was promised before and not delivered. There was

no referendum in the last manifesto. There will be in the next one. There

was a cast-iron guarantee, in the Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that

up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In the Sun article, he said, we will

have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty

had been passed before the general election, it is difficult to have a

referendum on something in the past. We joined Europe in the 1970s,

having a referendum on that! Look, that is about the future. Our

relationship with Europe is absolutely critical. Most people in

this country feel, I was not old enough to vote in that referendum,

most of those who voted, they voted for a Common Market, that is not

what we have got. We want to continue the work we have been doing

in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do? They voted against it. We want more

of those powers brought home, and we will put it to a referendum, and

people will have to vote Conservative to get it. We have been

looking at new research, almost two thirds of Conservative members are

considering voting for UKIP, almost two thirds. I have a simple message

here, which is this. If you vote for UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are

likely, 30% are possible. That is why it is important we are making

these arguments. If you vote for UKIP, you are voting to take us

further away from returning powers to this country, further from a

referendum. It is support for Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister,

and he will do exactly what Labour have always done - hand away powers,

and away the rebate for nothing in return, giving Europe even more so

over the day-to-day affairs in Britain. Why are so many people

considering voting UKIP? It is to hold your feet to the fire, they do

not trust you on a referendum, so they will vote UKIP to force you to

tap in your line. We have a very tough line. If I had said four years

ago that this government would manage to cut the overall EU

budget, would take us out of the bailout fund that Labour got us

into, passing a law that no more powers can go to Europe without a

referendum, if I had said that, people would say, I do not believe

it will happen. Not only have we done these things, we are promising

and in-out referendum, and the only way to get it is to vote

Conservative. Nigel Farage has said, we can't change anything in

Europe, and it is no wonder that the president of the European Commission

has said, we love having these UKIP MEPs, because they don't turn up and

vote, apart from when they vote against the cut in the budget. It

goes beyond UKIP in your party, because this research also showed

that those Conservative members most likely to vote for UKIP, they said

they do not feel valued or respected by their own leadership, and they

regard David Cameron as ideological eat more remote from them than UKIP.

What I would say is look at that list... Let me take that step

further. What people need our series solutions to serious problems. When

people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will say, which one of the 40% of the

MEPs who got in for UKIP last time are you voting for, the ones above

left or defected, the ones have gone to jail? 40% have ended up not

delivering. People have a right to know what to expect when they vote

in these elections. They can look at our record at home, and this goes to

the point you have raised about what we have done in Britain to get this

economy back on track, recover from Labour's recession. We are prepared

to take those decisions in Europe as well. Presumably, active

Conservative members, they know that, so why do they not feel valued

by the leadership? I spend time going up and down the country

meeting Conservative members, and they are on the doorstep, last

weekend 150 out in Enfield campaigning for the European and

local elections... Why are they keen on UKIP? When I meet somebody who

says that, not necessarily a member... Have you met members of

say they will vote UKIP? No, but a vote for UKIP is... Do not do it,

you will end up with Labour having more control, handing away powers to

Europe. 51-year-old meeting members who say they will vote UKIP, you

must be out of touch. -- if you are not meeting members. Some of your

members are thinking of voting UKIP. I spend huge amount of time

travelling around, I just told you about this action day in Enfield,

where we had an enormous turnout. Those members were on the doorsteps

pointing out that you can only get reform in Europe by voting

Conservative. Labour and the Lib Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't,

Conservatives will. You have not got that message across, because a

YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who has the best policies? Tories 18%,

Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP

4. Why don't you shut up about Europe and talk about the economy?

Look, on the 27th of May, we have European elections, as well as local

elections. If I don't talk about the European elections, you would say

what you said at the beginning about not talking about the local

elections! These are serious elections, and the point I am tried

to make is that the issues at stake are not peripheral, they are not

unimportant. Our MEPs have been battling to cut red tape from a

European level on small businesses, the same thing this government has

been doing for small businesses domestic league, where for example

every small business owner watching this show knows they have got ?2000

back in employment announced on national insurance contributions. We

are doing it at home, we are doing it in Europe, and it is important to

tie that together. Ireland that Mr Cameron saying, you should stop

banging on about Europe... -- I remember. This is before the last

general election, as in days for the Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't

win the election, and now you are only three or four points ahead, it

doesn't look good for you, does it? Even then, the poll did not turn out

to be what it was on the day. No, that is what happens, that is the

voting intentions now! You are in a worse position than a year before

the last election, which you didn't win. We are almost proving the point

that you can take a clip at any moment in time, not sounding like a

politician, but the only poll that matters is on the day. In just over

a year's time, people will have a completely different picture to look

at than these opinion polls. We have an economy from being a basket

case, the great Labour recession knocking 7% of this economy, hurting

every family, to a point where we the fastest-growing economy in the

developed world. In a year's time, I hope people will see that we are the

people who've taken the difficult decisions, got the economy to the

right place, more security for you and your family. Do not give the car

keys back to the people who crashed it in the first place. If I had a

pound for every time I have heard that! It is clearly not getting

through. On the Pfizer attempted of AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this

morning for a tougher public interest test such big takeovers. Do

you agree with that or not? Let me be absolutely clear, if there is any

kind of joining, we are in favour of British jobs, British aren't deep,

expanding our pharmaceutical sector. -- R But what Mr Mallon and wants

to do with rent caps, he is anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He

wants to take us back to the bad old those. -- bad old days. Should there

be a bigger public interest test? We have seen some takeovers that people

have criticised, but others, like Bentley, Land Rover, which have been

very successful. Should there be a tougher test?! We will have tests

that ensured this get-together becomes a great Anglo-American

project, or it doesn't happen, but the Miliband approach is simply to

be anti-business, anti-jobs and anti-job security. Grant Shapps,

thank you. A challenging week for the Liberal

Democrats with a local election campaign overshadowed by another row

with the Conservatives about knife crime. Adam has spent the day with

Nick Clegg on the campaign trail. How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on

a political mini break to the Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the

train. He wants to highlight what his party is doing in local

government, and a personal passion of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the

Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has been running a campaign to have

prunes recognised as a laxative. Is that Lib Dems battling for Britain

in Europe? It is not our front page manifesto commitment! It is one of

many things that Graham does, he does many other things. In fact, he

is a good example of an MEP who took a pioneering role, for instance, in

making sure... There is the proven world, but also the crime-fighting

role. -- prune. He has done work to make sure that when British

criminals flee justice, we can bring them back. And he has promoted

prunes! First stop, a gorgeous country pub, but it turns out

everyone is a journalist or a very on message activist. Dark days,

being a Lib Dem in the last few years? Strangely not. If you find

you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do not get that disheartened, because

you know that, locally, you are doing so well for the people that

you live next door to that, actually, I find I am almost

impervious to what happens on a national level. I am mayor of

Cirencester. Have you taken any leadership lessons from Nick Clegg,

inspiring new in your leadership of Cirencester? I think what he has

demonstrated his patience. It has been a tough time, he has taken a

lot of flak, and as the mayor of a town, lots of people agree with you

and a fair few don't. You are a full on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime

Minister, do you outrank him? I don't think so, he is in government,

I am not. So our there any normal people in here? We are from

Swindon, you cannot get more abnormal. Are you a big fan of his?

No! What has he done wrong? I don't believe in his views at all. Where

has he got to? Nigel Farage would have had a pint! At this time in the

morning a copy was more appropriate. I have no time for a drink of any

kind, because now we are off to look at a local traffic blackspot. This

is amazing, like a Lib Dem election leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems

pointing at a road. High-vis jackets! Next we had to giggle full

bath, but there will be no Regency sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is

taking us to an abandoned wilderness. We have just had a

health and safety briefing, we have been told to look out for

dive-bombing seagulls and an angry fox. That is the sort of thing Nick

Clegg has to put up with. He wants to talk about the economy but he has

to dodge the day's beat new story, letters leaked by a Tory suggesting

that Lib Dems are soft on knife crime. Isn't that a new kind of

warfare? I just think it is silly. They may think they are clever by

catching some headlines but they are not helping people who worry about

knife crime, like I do. We work together... Just like the

Coalition! This is a co-working space where different businesses

share the same office. My time with the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing

to a close. We haven't talked about the most important story of the

week, that you were voted the best looking party leader and the most

likely to be a good cook. Right, this is news to me and I can

guarantee you that my scepticism of opinion polls has just been

confirmed. Just as well because the more serious polls don't look great

for him or his party. Goodbye, and thanks for the offer of a ride

home! He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce

joins us now. According to Lib Dem briefing documents, you are likely

to choose -- lose a big chunk of your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what

would that say about a party that boasts of its pro-Europe

credentials? It would be disappointing because we have the

most hard-working MEPs. The worry that we have is that people think

the European Parliament is not important but it takes decisions

that affect us. They would be disappointing for Britain as well as

the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the problem that the more you bang on

about your pro-European credentials, the more you slip in the polls? I do

think so, we have two weeks to go and we are campaigning extremely

hard. You are forced in the polls. I can tell you there are people out

there who do believe Britain should stay in the EU and they are worried

that other parties will take us out. The Liberal Democrats are clear, we

want to stay in, we will work for reform and do it effectively. If you

lose the Liberal Democrats, Britain's influence in Europe will

be weakened. Your track record in Europe shows you have been

spectacularly wrong again and again. In your 2009 manifesto you said the

European Central Bank and the euro have been tried and tested over ten

years providing a clear picture of the benefits of Eurozone membership

and that proved to be nonsense. It was nonsense everywhere. Every

developed bank in the world was tried and tested and failed. Europe

may not be perfect, but the question people have to decide is if we are

going to leave Europe and be isolated on RM, or use our influence

to reform it from inside. We have allies, you work with them, that is

something the Lib Dems do better than any other parties. Your 2004

manifesto, you claim that being outside the euro would lead to job

losses and reduced prosperity. You were just plain wrong, weren't you?

Yes, but the reason is that to some extent the euro did not observe any

rules and regulations when it was set up. That is why we never

recommended Britain should join at the outset because the criteria had

not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was writing to the Financial Times...

Your track record is important. He wrote that the Tisch monetary policy

is not all it is cracked up to be. Britain would gain greater control

over its affairs by joining the euro. How wrong can he be? We have

always argued that the currency had to abide by strict criteria. It

hasn't done so and that is one of the reasons it has failed. We

recognise there is no future for Britain joining the euro and we are

not advocating it. Lets put your 2010 manifesto on the screen. I

didn't say it was not our long-term interest. If Europe succeeds as an

entity, if the euro becomes one of the world leading currencies, there

will come a point when it may be justified. In the circumstances we

are in the moment, there is no recommended timescale. Let's get

this right. Despite the Eurozone crisis which has cost millions of

jobs, countries that were teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, the

Eurozone now facing stagnation and some countries on the brink of

deflation, you still won't rule out Britain joining? We are ruling it

out in the foreseeable future. You can miss the point that we are

working as a coalition partner in government that has secured recovery

for the UK, and working as Liberal Democrats in the parliament that

have cut back the European budget in cooperation with others. What would

the world look like if it were right for Britain to join the euro? You

have 27 states at the moment, with too many countries still struggling

to meet the criteria so until you have a strong and cohesive enough

single Eurozone in which all the countries can meet that criteria,

Britain is better off out. So a more centralised Eurozone, that is what

you would like Britain to join? No, because it can only happen by

consent. Any circumstances in which any further powers would be

transferred from the UK to the EU, we would support a referendum. You

have just said that for the Eurozone to work, it has to be more

centralised and you said if that happens, that is what Britain would

join. I didn't say that, I said it would require the consent of all

member states to agree to the criteria. We certainly do not

envisage joining in the foreseeable future. Since you are the proud

party of in, why weren't you just give us a referendum on in or out?

Because it has to have a context. What David Cameron is doing is

dangerous because I think the major players like Britain and France are

not keen on the idea of being bullied into reforms on the

instigation of just one member state which is threatening possibility to

withdraw. They will have to agree to rules... Just have it now. Do you

want in or out? To have a referendum against no background is to put it

out of context. We are in the middle of a crisis, a year away from the

general election. We have made it clear... You said we are in the

middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we are not in the middle of it? What's

the middle? The reality is that the Western world has gone through a

deep crisis. The UK is coming out of it, the Eurozone is coming out of

it. Greece have been able to borrow on the markets in recent weeks which

is a sign of success. It is in our interest is the Eurozone succeeds

and recovers and we should be part of it but not necessarily on the

same conditions as everyone else. The Liberal Democrats work with

others to deliver Britain's interests and if they are not there,

their interests will be undermined. You are watching Sunday Politics. We

say goodbye to viewers in Scotland now. Coming up in 20 minutes, the

week ahead but first the Sunday Politics where you are.

Welcome to the show where this week we are focusing on the European

elections. We have five candidates standing in the capital this time,

Baroness Sarah Ludford for the Liberal Democrats, Mary Harney ball

for Labour, Jean Lambert for the Greens, and Miss Batten for UKIP. We

will hear from you in a moment after this. There is no election quite

like it in the world. 751 MEPs are elected, it makes the European

election the largest on earth. We spent 90 minutes in Oxford Circus

trying to find someone who could name their local MEP. I don't know.

I'm not sure. I don't even know what an MEP is. To be fair I don't think

Londoners are given enough information. When it comes to

Europe, it is an unnecessary distraction. In fact, Londoners

don't have an MEP, they have eight. The capital is one giant

constituency at the moment represented by eight, but what they

do? They governed the rules of the free movement of goods, services,

capital and labour. Regulations on the free movement of people, people

who come here from the rest of the EU is governed by EU law. With much

of the population unsure about how the European elections work or what

the European Parliament does, the job of parties to convince you why

you should vote for them might be tougher than any other election.

None of you will be a stranger to that sense of cynicism by members of

the public or the media indeed, but how do you address it? How helpful

as it when Boris Johnson is saying these elections are sham? Whatever

people think of the EU, the European Parliament has equal power so when

people are affected by any issues where Europe initiates the laws,

they come to us. Is he right when he calls it a sham, pointless

elections? These people sit in Parliament with equal powers... In

fact Boris who himself has been to Brussels and recognises the power of

the European Parliament. So he is wrong to describe it as a sham and

bloated and drawing attention to the fact that no one knows the name of

their MEPs? Boris has come to talk to us about financial regulation.

Mary, what do you do about this continuing sense of cynicism? I

think it is more that people don't know enough about the European

Parliament and how the institutions work. I think that is the fault of

all of us. I think what we do is very underreported. Programmes like

this one are quite rare and I very much welcome the opportunity to talk

about it. We don't see much in the news and I don't think we do was

much as record to tell people about what we do. I would like to make

another point. You go out on the streets of London and you ask them

who their MEP is and they don't know, if you have done that same

exercise with the House of Commons they probably wouldn't know. Lets

continue this stream of thought. What have you done to justify, if

you had to pick out a single achievement and justify it as you

being re-elected? One of the single biggest achievements we did as a

group was to push the European budget towards cuts, we cut 30

billion off the long-term budget and we focused it much more on things

that would create jobs like investment in research and so on,

away from the old baggage. Personally I do a lot of work on

cross-border police co-operation and I desperately want the UK to stay

plugged into that. I am also investing in the European arrest

warrant. Let's concentrate on your own position for the time being.

Jean Lambert, we know the Greens focus on environmental issues and no

one will dispute that. You have been elected on that basis in the past,

but when people seek air-quality not improving in the capital, they begin

to wonder whether it is not very effective. If you are not looking at

air-quality in the capital, it is certainly a big problem here. The

only reason in the sense people are where it needs fixing is because you

have European Union legislation on it. It is the very fact that the

Mayor of London is dragging his feet about meeting the targets that have

been agreed, cooperation of the Parliament and the national

governments, that is the Porsche and that is what gives people of London

the tools to also begin to push in terms of, you are not meeting your

targets, you are not meeting your legislation. What is your biggest

achievement? Can I come back to... Answer that one first. With the aid

of my colleagues in UKIP, we have put the idea of leaving Europe on

the map. I have spent the last five years concentrating on opposing the

kind of stuff that Sarah Ludford likes, the European arrest warrant,

because any British person can be taken to a foreign prison on the

strength of a piece of paper and a British court cannot protect them

and happy as corpus does not apply. I was going to ask you about that,

the Conservative Mayor of London calls it a sham, what do you say to

that? We don't want to be in the EU at all, but Boris wants to replace

it with delegates from the national parliament, and that is because they

know what will happen when UKIP gets more votes, so it was a self

interested policy. Let's move on to the question of immigration, when

new address the question of Romanians, body Aryans, the future

couple of years, how hard would it be for you to win voters' trust? --

Bulgarians. Boaters do recognise that, and so do we. -- voters. Ed

Miliband has admitted we made mistakes and we will not make them

in the future, and that is clear in the Labour Party manifesto for the

European elections. We are clear on that. So you would agree with and

support what the Conservatives are doing in terms of controlling access

to benefits and so on? We are saying that we will make sure that people

cannot claim unemployment benefit here until after six months, whereas

it is three months at the moment, and we don't think child benefit and

tax credits should be paid to families abroad. I would also say

that, in London, we have a very diverse community, as you can see

from us sitting around a table here, and it is important to recognise

that and how necessary it has become to London to be diverse, and how

advantageous it is for us. We wouldn't have won the Olympics had

we not had the diverse community that we do have. Your party is

supporting an amnesty, I imagine, believing in the value of

immigration and among the group here most supportive of it. Is that going

to... You are talking about non-EU migration, and we have a new policy,

and we want to make sure that highly skilled people come here. In terms

of EU migration, it is a two-way street. 2 million Brits live in

other EU countries, the vast majority in work, not pensioners,

and they are only able to do that because of EU writes. London benefit

hugely from EU migrants, and they contribute one third more than they

take out in benefits. So certainly the Lib Dems and the Tories in

government have made sure we are applying EU law on the right to

benefits, because it is a right to work, not to collect benefits, and

Labour had perhaps not properly applied that. But let's remember all

the jobs that have been created by migrants, Canary Wharf employs

100,000 people and is run by a Romanian. Do you agree? Yes, and the

fact that it is a two-way street, a reciprocal arrangement that we

have, health care rights when we travel, writes to social security in

another member state, that is regulated. You know, it... And in

terms of a lot of the rhetoric which is around about so-called benefit

fraud, the government has not been able to come up with figures to make

that stand up, the commission's own research has not been able to

justify that. There is a hell of a lot of scaremongering going on

around the election. Who would you hold responsible for that? It is not

just one party, but one party is very clearly there in terms of the

advertising, the rhetoric... UKIP, I wanted to use you to segue to

Gerald, you have made is quite controversial. The whole of the

European population has a right to come here if they want to, and a

great many have. The other parties did not get this wrong. This exactly

what they intended, what Labour intended. They are only worried

about it now because of the UKIP electoral thread. All my colleagues

here are now in favour of Turkish entry to the European Union, which

would give another 72 million people the right to come here. Our policy

is that we are not against immigration, but it should be of a

degree, and on criteria set by the British Government. Not to have an

open borders country 327 other countries. How do you answer that?

The issues we have to look at our very real concerns, over numbers,

over benefits tourism, no matter how large or small, and numbers. What I

find fascinating is that you can talk about this all the time, stick

it on your posters, but you can't do a thing about it. You have not got a

single Member of Parliament, you can't deliver this sort of change.

We have been building a political party for 20 years, and we intend to

have an influence in the only parliament that can take as... This

is a long-term fight. Your government, sorry, your party in the

coalition government has no intention of doing anything about

these things at all. It is all false promises because you are frightened

of the UKIP electoral thread. You can't deliver. Gerald, you can't

deliver. Then why have democracy? Why have other political parties? Do

you have a divine right to be there? No-one else can do it, why bother

having elections? We are in a process... You talk about changing

something, you have criticised the European arrest warrant. I have

worked to get a cross-party coalition in the European Parliament

to call for reform, you were the only UKIP MEP who turned up and you

voted against. Because we want it abolished and a proper international

extradition treaty... So how would you have got Hussain Osman back in

six weeks from Italy? What about the people being carted off to foreign

prisons and being kept in inhumane conditions?! On that note, they's

poll could be the last time we get to vote in the European election. --

Me. Britain has much to contribute to

the universal nature of Europe's responsibilities. Britain joined the

European economic community, as it was known back then, in 1973. Two

years later, voters got a chance to say whether they wanted in or out

and chose overwhelmingly to stay in. But the Europe which Britain voted

to be part of would soon change. In 1989, the Berlin Wall came down,

opening the way for Eastern Europe to join the EU, and in 1992 black

Wednesday. The Government has concluded Britain's best interests

are concerned by suspending membership of the exchange rate

mechanism. Britain set itself on a different path to other European

member states, meaning that when the euro launched, Britain stayed out.

And come the peak of the eurozone crisis in 2012, David Cameron

effectively vetoed new Europe-wide institutions aimed at solving the

crisis. Then, the following year, he had this to say. We will give the

British people a referendum with a very simple in or out choice. And

should the Conservatives be true to their word and win the general

election, the UK will once again vote on whether to leave, meaning

that at the next European elections in 2019, Britain may not be a

member. If we had a referendum, and in that referendum we voted to

leave, this could well be the lest European Parliament elections that

we vote in. When you ask voters whether they think we should be in

or out, it is close, typically around 45-55%, so 45 staying in, 55

staying out. But when you frame it as a question of national interest,

David Cameron says it is in your interest to stay in, actually

support for staying in goes up to 65-70%. Should that come to pass,

opinions vary greatly as to whether Britain would be better off in or

out. What would London lose if we came

out of the EU? Well, I think London would lose a lot of the vibrancy and

diversity. It would lose a lot of the legislation which actually makes

it a pleasant place to live, whether that is a quality, water quality,

whatever. I think it also loses part of its role within the world. I

think for us, we have an influence within the country, within a union

of 28 which, as a single country, we don't have. It would function on its

own, wouldn't it? With its financial records and history? The financial

aspect is very important. As we know, the City of London is crucial

to the whole country, and actually the City of London wants to stay in

the EU. They recognise the huge benefits they get from being part of

the single market, and the CBI has actually carried out surveys which

show that the overwhelming majority, nearly 80% of their companies, wants

to stay in the EU. I had a meeting only a few days ago with several

organisations from the City of London, all in the financial

services sector, and every single one of them not only wants to stay

in the EU, they are very pro-. And they are actually very concerned at

the moment, because they see increasing instability because they

are not sure, the world is not sure about whether Britain will stay in

or not. Do you feel we will wait and see what the British public thinks?

If you look at the situation in Europe, the eurozone, high-level is

unemployment, look at growth compared to other economies, Europe

has to change. Europe cannot go on as it is, and Britain's relationship

with the EU has to change. Only the Conservatives are offering people

that Joyce - reform, renegotiation, referendum. -- choice. What would

London lose? In other European countries we are seeing we have got

two or three years to get significant reform. No ifs or buts,

there will be a referendum by 2017. What would London gain if it came

out? I talk to people in financial services, and you get a range of

views. The big organisations with many lobbyists, public affairs

people who like going to Brussels every week, of course they are in

favour of it, but I speak to small companies who are really worried.

What most people want, looking at opinion polls, is not in out now,

they want the chance to reform Europe. In this diverse city,

absolutely integral, some would argue, to not just the country's, me

but Europe as well, and given UKIP's relatively poor showing in a

metropolitan city, what do you think London would gain from coming out of

the EU? We would control our own lawmaking processes, we would get a

tremendous boost to the economy, because we wouldn't be paying all of

these billions in every year to European Union membership. The

economy would get a boost by getting rid of a lot of regulation, the

Common Agricultural Policy, fisheries policy. My colleague has

calculated that the direct and indirect costs on the British

economy from membership of the EU is about ?170 billion per annum, and

this idea that we can't exist outside of the EU is nonsense.

London has existed for about 2000 years, and we have only been in the

EU for the last 40. We would not have a problem surviving. A majority

of firms want to stay in the EU, and if we want to trade with Europe,

which we do, we would have to accept the rules and regulations. We would

have to be like Norway, but having no say in how those rules are made.

I do not think that is a role that is fit for Britain. I wanted to stay

in and reform from the inside. I do not be David Cameron's position of

holding a gun to the head Europe, can I finish? He says, if you do not

agree with us, we will leave. Unfortunately, that tactic is not

going to work, it will be by influencing and winning allies, and

making reform from the inside. And we would lose a lot of the trade

access that we have with the rest of the world as well. If we get a

transatlantic trade deal, that would benefit the London economy by ?2

billion. Do you think we would lose a lot? We gain massively... We gain

massively by being in the single market. We actually have tax and

trade with the rest of the EU, the largest market in the world. If we

weren't in the single market, we would lose hugely. I think everyone

access that, and that is one of the reasons we want to stay in the EU.

As we have seen this rise of UKIP, this squeezes the Greens. I think it

is squeezing every party and when we are looking towards the future of

the European Union and what we want out of it, I think there are risks

at the moment with the trade agreement with the US. This is

something where my party is very clear. We think there are really big

risks in that in terms of democratic decision-making, which I'm pleased

to hear you say that because in the past that has not been the case. How

worried are you by the progress they appear to have been making, UKIP? I

think what's is that when I am on the doorstep, and opinion polls show

this, most people don't want the choice of in or out, they want the

choice of reform. When opinion polls say, if you were given the choice to

go in or out of a reformed Europe most people choose to stay in. Do

you want Britain to be a region of the United States of Europe, or do

you want Britain to be an independent self-governing nation?

The arguments now are the same as they were 40 years ago about the

democratic issue. We could have a referendum now this Parliament

passed the bill. Labour Lib Dems won't offer it, UKIP can't. On that

note, thank you very much indeed for being here today. A list of all the

parties and candidates standing in the European elections can be found

on our website. That is all we have got time for this week. Next week,

London's local elections. Welcome back. Now, the Government is

not very good at predicting the future. That's according to a report

from a committee of MPs this morning who say that its Horizon Scanning

programme that's supposed to identify potential threats, risks,

emerging issues and opportunities isn't much good at reading the tea

leaves. But can it really be any worse than our panel? Here they are

predicting the future of then culture secretary Maria Miller

before Easter. Can she survive? I'm getting out of

the prediction game after I said Nick Clegg would win the debates.

But I almost think she might. If there is a big event that moves this

off the front pages. David Cameron will want to keep Maria Miller until

at least his summary shuffle. I think they will get rid of her. I

think they will do the decent thing after exhausting all other options.

Maria Miller resigned a few days later of course! The best and the

brightest, when did that slip in? This week it will be exactly a year

until the General Election, so what better time to get our panel to gaze

into their crystal balls again. What's the outcome of the election

in 2015? I'm going to go with the polls and say Ed Miliband as the

Prime Minister. But the polls are only a snapshot of opinion now, you

think they will be the same in a year? No, I think they will narrow.

I think UKIP's vote share will fall. I think they are currently coasting

on a high and that will tailor way so they won't take as many votes off

the Tories. Labour with a majority or is the largest party. Another

liberal Conservative coalition, and I say that because he is already in

touching distance of Labour. I don't think UKIP will get 15, maybe half

of that, and most of the votes they lose will either not vote at all go

to the Tories and that should be enough to be the biggest party in a

hung parliament I don't envisage a Tory majority. I am also going to go

with the polls. For Ed Miliband to be hoping to win at this stage, he

has got to be way ahead in the polls. Labour needs to be much

further ahead if he is going to win so David Cameron, probably the

leader of the largest party. Last time after the election David

Cameron went to the 1922 committee and announced he was Prime Minister

as head of the Coalition. He has agreed this time he will consult

them and it will be much more difficult for him to get a

coalition. People at home have now concluded there will be a Liberal

Democrat landslide! Are we going to have debates? Yes, probably further

away from polling day then last time. That is the Liberal Democrat

point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all the life out of the campaign, so the

last six weeks will be left to traditional campaigning. What did

you make of this in the Sunday Times this morning, this two, three, five

formula. There should be a Cameron, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then

there should be another one with them and UKIP and the Greens. It

might be testing the patience of the nation to tune into all of those. If

you're going to say Nigel Farage should be there, the Green party

should be too. They know that as soon as you put them on a podium

next to them, he looks like he has equal stature and that is a problem.

David Cameron does not want the debates to happen on the way they

happened last time. It is generally regarded, Lynton Crosby believes

they were a disaster for David Cameron because they allowed Nick

Clegg to be the fresh person. He knows he cannot say no to them so

the moment you see David Cameron suggesting that Caroline Lucas

should be in the debate, you know he is not serious. What he will try to

do is have more debates, have them outside the main part of the general

election so that it doesn't dominate. The problem the David

Cameron is that the campaign will be much longer. It is a five-week

campaign so it is quite difficult for him to say we will only have one

debate in that campaign. I think smother it with love, hopefully it

will go to the courts for him and hopefully they will never happen and

he will be delighted. The European election and the local elections are

coming up. The three mainstream parties are saying it is a flash in

the pan, they don't really matter and so on, but if UKIP comes a

strong first, if Labour comes a poor second and the Tories come a poor

third, it will have consequences for all three, and the Lib Dems come

forth or even fish. It will have consequences and not just in the

media but on the ground. One of the big stories is what will happen to

the Lib Dems, they face losing all of their MEPs. A good result for

them is lit -- in the local elections is losing 250 councillors.

These are the most interesting elections we have had for some

time. Are we heading for a Nick Clegg summer leadership crisis? I

think we are heading towards reversing the clock back to where we

were before the Eastleigh by-election. That quiet and things

down for Nick Clegg. If they lose all their MEPs, and there is a real

chance they will, Vince Cable will be out on manoeuvres because age is

not on his side. If he can say Nick Clegg is a loser and a failure, he

will be back. Will the Tories go into headless chicken mode if they

come third? Yes, if UKIP come first there will not be as much panic as

if Labour come first. Is Labour comes a poor second, will there be

some pressure on Ed Miliband to reopen his attitude to the

referendum? I don't think so and my colleague was talking to Labour

sources who said he is absolutely not going to. That is something you

can say definitely about him, he decides on a course and he sticks to

it. There is one potential upside for David Cameron in a really bad

Conservative results, it could strengthen his hand in the

renegotiations of Britain's EU membership because he doesn't even

need to say to Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande it is there. David

Cameron hasn't just been fighting for his party into the local

elections. He also got his knuckles wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow,

at Prime Minister's Question Time, for talking for too long. Take a

look at this. There is a better future ahead of us but we must not

go backward to the policies that put us in this mess in the first place.

I don't know what they are paying him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I

haven't finished! In response to that question, the Prime Minister

has finished and he can take it from me that he has finished. I can't

remember a speaker ever speaking to a Prime Minister like that. Clearly

in that case, John Bercow crossed a line. It is Prime Minister 's

questions, he is entitled to answer the questions. There is really bad

blood between those two, going back a long way. They hate each other and

the worrying thing about that was the look of triumphalism on the

speaker's face afterwards. He is a remarkable, revolutionary speaker

who has made the House of Commons more relevant, he is holding the

executive to account, but that look on his face showed he had crossed

the line. Does he survive after the next election? He has improved the

importance of the Commons, is that enough to keep him in the Speaker 's

chair? The most public bit of the Commons is still the Prime Minister

's questions, and we can conclude that John Bercow's interventions

take more time than any delays he complains about so I wouldn't be

surprised if, in a few years' time, someone else replaces him. He is

quite popular with Labour, is he not? Yes, he is married to a Labour

activist and is notably sympathetic to Labour but I think this is a

difficult situation. David Cameron also overstepped the line. As soon

as the speaker says order, the idea is that the House was to order and

David Cameron pushed him. They are both trying to score points off each

other. We cover Prime Minister 's questions every week on the daily

politics, and there is a danger that he sees it as an opportunity to do

some grandstanding. You slightly sends his vanity gets the better of

him. It is supposed to be Prime Minister 's questions. At the end of

that session, the Speaker read out a statement from the Chief clerk, and

immensely respected figure, saying he is taking early retirement. It is

pretty clear that the reason he has decided to go early is because he is

finding it tricky to maintain a cordial relationship with the

speaker, and the speaker might want to think about his man management

skills. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will be back on BBC

Two at lunchtime from Tuesday onwards. Remember, it is a bank

holiday tomorrow. I'll be back here at 11am next week. Remember - if

it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.