18/05/2014 Sunday Politics London

Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until

election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader

on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections

on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls

are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a

difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

campaign trail, he has been asking all the big questions. Where are you

going to go for lunch? In London this week, a last look at the euro

elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's

32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got

all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it

is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local

elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are

the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some

say that these European and local elections will not be much of a

pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political

commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is

at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European

Parliament elections. These local results should be known

by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the

European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let

it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced

until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member

states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this

morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,

and the general election is still wide open - we really are in

uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,

because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst

those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times

showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know

that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the

major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP

success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has

been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party

is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next

week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders

who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick

Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or

four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he

should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral

force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a

couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one

who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr

Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.

The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his

own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the

Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly

at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England

has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England

now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what

the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,

it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections

began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they

finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish

runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on

something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,

France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first

past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a

situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the

largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of

seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two

parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's

speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP

claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on

Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become

a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a

grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are

going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this

earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we

will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election

manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and

putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring

Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of

power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a

referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up

party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies

created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them

this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more

robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other

three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got

nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this

week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or

Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on

all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been

involved in some kind of racist, sexist or homophobic incident. I am

not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably

needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any

worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we

do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they

know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to

far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a

one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the

headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a

huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople

across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably

the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic

leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get

our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many

more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. We

are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by

Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between

television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how

much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like

the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in

conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a

joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote

UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party

line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...

On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is

obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a

manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have

put forward a lot of positive -- a lot of policies at local government

level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,

local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a

school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best

interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any

party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.

People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their

party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote

to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a

road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road

map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.

Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but

there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There

is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that

detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.

We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong

position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade

deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What

would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for

back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade

agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the

European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975

involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do

not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply

concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it

sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is

better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds

like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all

manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our

sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if

a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am

surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in

next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different

from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they

being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being

trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I

do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian

approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were

learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British

economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out

how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24

hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours

in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make

up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in

Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local

and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at

eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and

producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm

welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.

One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got

Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and

that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but

it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members

for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top

Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in

traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in

time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to

Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not

even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We

will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the

Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the

Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses

upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a

referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.

I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about

elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at

our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in

Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from

chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was

boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just

hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft

their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who

live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed

Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls

lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who

is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're

flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right

place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning

as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said

the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If

he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not

forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40

minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for

something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home

for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy

elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack

Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens

used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went

wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs

and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these

elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party

calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making

poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have

made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the

left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative

vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I

met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane

exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond

issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned

about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the

Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price

bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the

same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline

greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs

and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our

economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has

sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one

planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by

renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on

days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It

is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a

smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to

supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to

work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and

we are losing opportunities. 50% of German renewable electricity is

owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the

big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French

nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,

going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government

proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two

plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.

We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more

seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined

strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's

throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise

council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by

other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at

the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor

numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in

Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are

the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of

Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a

debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have

that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city

should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be

brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride

in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the

people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in

Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do

most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.

Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,

the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a

European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and

only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP

party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions

usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on

to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it

suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well

either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation

has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will

not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to

hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come

out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we

want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child

tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but

Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to

halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to

the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done

to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in

the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be

lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never

knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support

because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit

like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now

we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make

together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that

only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been

shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out

of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the

jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives

comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't

really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been

there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite

being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on

Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we

wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal

Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.

But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have

taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We

are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our

relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why

has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your

own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we

have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will

decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is

that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon

and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband

said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy

prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower

than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general

election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this

question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David

Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in

the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties

that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who

say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has

given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing

something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader

bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of

the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who

think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak

to people about it, people understand that we are better in

them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs

Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have

battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to

take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been

delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.

-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,

people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's

antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable

housing they need. We as a government have delivered more

affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties

earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out

that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in

2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly

half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher

or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions

of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I

would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the

deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now

have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people

employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say

that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We

need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.

Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are

the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any

change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think

like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree

with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply

would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the

workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now

privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the

coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level

since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got

a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies

which directly address the problems which people face. I think the

public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for

the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum? We

are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next

time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the

relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.

We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.

We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying

in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall

transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for

this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to

leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but

we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the

future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built

our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want

artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out

of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being

positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep

absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said

that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British

withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a

successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am

very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with

confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he

said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the

party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you

agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and

then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a

line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with

Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay

in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am

not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every

question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!

I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at

our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn,

what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems

towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at

sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,

we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the

Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.

It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of

powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we

believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for

economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our

relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday

will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything

you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I

am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the

dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that

Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth

is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of

a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one

more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection

with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should

vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just

that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot

more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at

Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not

been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that

is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible

of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of

the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.

We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -

he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday

Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for

Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up in 20 minutes, more from our

political panel. First, The Sunday Politics where you are. Welcome from

us. Ahead of this big election week, we have got no politicians here in

the studio. But we have got Tony Travers from the London School of

Economics and two journalist, the editor of the London Evening

Standard and the commentator Yasmine alibi Brown. Before we hear from

them, we have got a brief history lesson on London's municipal

politics. The Beatles, in one meteoric year, they have gone from

the cellars of Liverpool to the national limelight. 1963, the

Beatles released their first LP and an act of Parliament creates better

London as we know it today. The first elections were held the

following year, meaning that this spring is the 50th anniversary of

the first-ever elections to London's boroughs. Behind me you can see five

of the 33. You have got Lambeth, Southwark, Tower Hamlets, the City

and the West End and Westminster. Most London boroughs are about

quarter of a million people in size, very big. So, each London borough is

about the same size as a city like Brighton. These five boroughs alone

have a collective economy which is much larger than most countries on

earth. Running a London council is a serious business. In the 1980s, the

local authorities of the capital got a bad reputation. Many Labour

councils tried to follow what they saw as a radical socialist pogrom.

We represent the working class community which has already been

ravaged by the Tory economic policies. Others dubbed them the

loony left. The Conservatives were also touched by scandal. A council

run by Shirley Porter was found to be selling council houses to

Conservative voters for electoral advantage of the party. Robert

Gordon Clark is one of London's leading PR men. Over the years he

has worked for every London borough. When I first got involved in the

1980s, it was more tribal. It was more split. Since the 1980s, partly

due to loss of powers, councils are much more minded about not getting

into serious debt, we have not seen the loony Lambeth headlines in the

same way as we saw in the 1980s. And that is a good thing. Working

together, I know we can take the country through those difficult

times to the better times which I believe lie ahead. The last set of

council elections on London were held on the same day as the general

election which brought the coalition to power. The new government went

about cutting the budget of local councils by a quarter. According to

one expert, the next four years will be very different. So far I think

the public has not noticed a lot of the cuts. They cannot keep on hiding

them. So we will see some big questions asked about the future of

things like parks. If businesses cannot take them on, the public

cannot look after them, should councils let them become wild

meadows in places? Should councils start sharing services, does every

borough need to have its own social services department and we have seen

evidence that sharing those can give big savings. In the 1960s, central

government created a new map of London, a new administrative map. I

think over the next four or five years, it will be read one again. If

this does happen, it will be hugely important. -- redrawn again. So,

what is happening to local government in the capital? Sarah,

are council is good in London or is it just because they are kept on a

shortly she? It might be the two. But it is certainly true that

councils used to be very ideological, but now it is about

efficiency. They have managed. Islington, for instance, has been

terrific about keeping up all its services, free school meals and so

on, while keeping to the limit. A lot of those are Labour councils as

well. It is not just a Tory thing that you can be efficient. So, can

we deduce from that that possibly, they can manage better than we

thought, without hurting services unduly? I think one of the people on

the programme is right, it has gone as far as it can go. I live in a

borough which is at the moment under Labour, it has also been under the

Tories. They have kept the council tax the same for a number of years.

But I see the effect already on what is now happening, and I do not think

it can be stretched any further without the whole concept of what we

expect our councils to do collapsing, and I do not know what

happens. Our relationship as citizens is with the council much

more I think them with Westminster politics. Tony Travers, services

have not collapsed, have they, but is local government regarded as good

as long as it just keeps quiet and has not got much to play with? There

has been an extraordinary change, which was picked up by that film. It

is the fact that councils have managed with far lower resources

than they used to have and kept the service is going, and although there

have been some pinch points which most of us would not see, the truth

is, the streets are clean and now than at any time in recent history.

Mm is also correct, it cannot go on forever, you cannot keep cutting by

20% and assume there is not a point where something would snap. Voters

would be looking at these elections and thinking, which party locally is

going to manage the next four years of big financial pressure the best?

And why is there going to be such pressure on local authorities, why

are we only halfway through the cuts? Because the present government

has decided, and I suspect any imaginary Labour government would

also do the same, to protect the NHS, to protect schools, the welfare

budget has gone up, and if you allow those things to rise, then if you

are trying to cut overall public spending, everything else including

local government has to be cut much more, and that is what has happened.

The government has decided to protect the NHS but not the

councils, not only in London. I don't think it is something

abstract. My mother got very good council care. Someone else who

didn't die Burn, unlucky woman, didn't -- doesn't get anything. I do

want to question this idea that not being ideological as a good thing.

Sometimes I think ideology needs to return to counsel politics. Are we

really treating them so poorly, so much like children that we don't

give them financial freedoms to maintain the sense of localism? I

think what you have is an extreme sense of realism everywhere.

Everyone knows that in their own lives and in the public and private

sector there is very little expectation. You cannot argue for

spending a lot of money, there is no stomach for it. But what they have

is this great asset of land, never more valuable. Haringey is one

council that can just flog the land. They are not at their limit. They

are at property fares flogging of land. They have got too much even

now? Not too much but they have got something in reserve. Day-to-day

spending is heavily constrained, but it is the case that London boroughs

sit on very large assets and of course they could further use them,

particularly if central government's portfolio were also

available. There is great opportunity to take these assets and

regenerate areas, to allow more housing to be built. Do you think

your readers would like to see more tax-raising powers restored, more

control over their own budgets, less dependence on central government,

and then perhaps we don't get so much uniformity. I think people are

thinking about what they need, and by far the biggest issue amongst our

readers in London is housing, it is all about housing. That is probably

why you Labour is ahead in the polls. If they can find a way of

building more houses, planning permission or... May be just

borrowing more. You are thinking in old-fashioned terms, they can get

foreign investors like everyone else. In terms of who has access to

the housing, renting and so on, they just want housing. Either you really

mean decentralisation or you mean centralisation. This is a halfway

house and I do feel for councils. All people vote for is what the

council did or didn't do for me, that includes me, and there is only

a limited amount they can do. If they sold off these assets, in ten

years there would be nothing. It is only a finite resource.

Interestingly, as this is a 50 year celebration, it is worth remembering

that when Mr McMillan's government pushed through the law that created

the London boroughs, councils did have greater freedom to be

different. I think the lack of difference is not unique to the

London boroughs, it is true across politics. They haven't been changed

in 50 years, do you think there is any argument there will be a further

rationalisation that you cease to have this identity? Almost any

institution can be reformed by the Government and the health service is

endlessly reformed, and there is always a risk that the London

boroughs would be reduced in number. The questions over whether

reorganisation would really improve anything, particularly as he said in

the film they are rather big in comparison with international

municipalities. People don't tend to vote in these elections in big

numbers. What could you do to get people more attached to the local

authority providing their services? I think if political parties at

local level actually had identities, were recognisable. They

are all much of the same now. Maybe not in this election, but certainly

in the next round, people are tired of not knowing what the differences.

Would you agree with that? I am pleased it is less political. I want

people knocking on the door talking about roadworks, or other proper

issues that matter to people. The turnout, although it won't be great

in these elections, will be higher than when there are only Euro

elections and that shows people know that local government matters in the

end. Thank you. Next to those European elections and

however hard anyone tries to project something more positive it has

seemed hard to escape the three words, in or out, so we asked that

question to businesses in Croydon. Croydon in south London, a key

battle ground in this month 's election. According to some, the

biggest issue facing recovering economies is whether we stay in only

the European Union. It would define who business can employ, how much

they are taxed, how long staff can work and even potentially the

currency changing hands. Given the importance politicians are putting

on this issue, we sent researchers out onto the streets to find out

whether businesses thought they would be better off in or out. I

think we should stay because it is good for the UK. However, across the

town centre this accountant thought otherwise. Most of my clients are

running businesses and their businesses are going down so they

are not happy about staying in the EU because so many people come from

different countries and they are working the same, or trading the

same businesses. By far the most common reaction was that out of the

20 businesses we spoke to, two thought we would be better off in,

four said better off out, but 14 didn't have a view either way. That

means it is not the biggest issue for many of London's businesses.

With me now, Ruth Lea, an economist, and the journalist and broadcaster

Benedict Savio. If something isn't negotiated that is worthwhile, I say

there is nothing to fear when it comes to leaving. Then you can

actually start thinking about having trade relations and trade agreements

that you cannot do at the moment. Businesses may find it burdensome

but they also say we get such benefit from trade fair. I have no

doubt, the European Union is an important trading bloc, I think 45%

now of our goods and services go to the EU, but let's be honest about

this. Trade wouldn't stop if we left. We would negotiate some sort

of agreement and I would bet that our European colleagues would not

want trade wars. Have you ever seen a German car on a British road? What

would you say when you observe this? London is constantly telling people

it is better than Paris and New York or whatever, if it came out of the

EU what would the effect be? As we speak in 2014, London is one of the

financial centres of the world, certainly Europe. The prospect of it

leaving EU is about one because there is a lot of European

investment and if you look at an MP like Markfield, he recognises

himself that it is crucial that London remains within the EU. The

prospect and the uncertainty that is being cultivated, we don't know if

there will be a referendum, it depends on whether there will be a

Conservative government after the next election and we don't know

obviously what David Cameron could or could not renegotiate so that is

irritating other EU allies. As for this myth that somehow some sort of

fantastic trade deals like Norway or Switzerland could be negotiated de

facto, it is quite unlikely. 54% of British people today want to stay in

the EU so I think the business community is making a strong case.

Let's be honest, we are major market for the other European countries,

they would want an agreement with us and they would not want trade was. I

take your point the city is a very important part of the economy. The

EU is changing, Britain's relationship with the EU is

changing. As the EU integrates we are being more and more

marginalised. In the meantime, because of the problems of the

financial crisis, a lot of that was blamed on the Anglo-Saxon like

regulation. Even in the preoccupation there will be over the

next couple of years, do you see this as itself damaging the status

of the capital economically? Yes, it is, because what other states don't

like is that uncertainty. I think as the British business community

has... I think what is happening is there is such an emotional

relationship with the EU. I mean just look at language, people in

Britain often say I am going to Europe. No, you are in Europe. There

is this conflation with immigration. Even the French and Germans

recognise there needs to be root and branch reform within the EU and that

is the message that pro-European people in this country need to make

very clearly. Hold that thought. If it pulls out, British people will

not have a very easy time working in France. Hold on! Scaremongering.

There are no fewer than ten other parties fielding a full slate of

candidates in the European elections and Kate Ford can fill us in on

their main platforms. British people should have a vote

and we should leave the European Union and build socialist policies

in Britain to ensure jobs and public services for our people. We are

saying that if people go for a referendum, it will be rigged like

it was the last time so we are saying no referendum, just get

people out. It is the only way we can see would solve the fundamental

issues. We believe there should be a referendum on the European Union,

and if there was one tomorrow we would support leaving the European

Union. The Liberal Democrats have talked about fighting for British

interests -- the English Democrats. Everything could change, we might

not have the union. London is voting for freedoms have an absolute

guarantee they are voting for a positive voice with London as

Europe's leading city. Communities united party is campaigning for

reforming council tax and business rates. We want to protect the right

of the London and British people all over the UK and we want to make a

change. The National health action party is fighting to stop the

alleged privatisation of the NHS. I think if I got elected it would send

a powerful message to Westminster and Brussels that people are

saying, no more running down of the NHS. The National Liberal party

is... The animal welfare party is talking about plant -based lifestyle

initiatives. The key policy is to redirect EU subsidies away from

livestock and fisheries farming into plant -based agriculture. For a full

list of all the parties standing in the elections, visit the website.

A range of platforms we can see there. Ten parties and so on but do

you think this election, the debate has become so crystallised, the in

or out, that people will really focus on no central issues? I think

Nigel Farage has very successfully become the emblem for the protest

vote. If indeed it is UKIP which comes out on top, this is good for

Nigel Farage. If it doesn't, it is bad for Nigel Farage. If Labour come

second, that is bad for the Labour Party and bad for Ed Miliband. If

the Conservatives come third, that is bad for David Cameron, because it

is the first time the Conservative will have come in that position. But

there is a rise in population, whether it is in France... On that

note, does London sometimes get immune from that, so that a party

like UKIP finds it more difficult to break through, Eggers London does

not embrace those extremes? That is probably true. Remember the last

European elections, UKIP did exceptionally well, so, interesting

though this is, I think it does not tell us where we are going to be in

12 months' time. To both of you, thank you very much indeed. Back to

Andrew. Welcome back. Politicians always

insist in public that opinion polls do not matter. Even though their own

parties each spend a small fortune on private polling. If they take

them seriously, so do we! Let's take a closer look. First up, how the

votes might fall for the European Parliament. Back in January, Labour

looked set to finish first. By April, UKIP had edged into the lead.

According to today's poles, Nigel Farage's party is either down into

place, or has soared ahead. Both cannot be right. It is a similar

picture for the general election. Labour's lead has been cut back by

the Tories. This is the most unpredictable general election in a

long time. It keeps us in a job! We are joined now by the managing

director of the pollsters, ComRes. Welcome to the programme. While the

polls all over the place on the European election? We are trying to

do two things, figure out who is going to be voting, and how they are

going to be voting. I think a lot of the polls are predicting quite high

turnout. They are looking at more than 50% turnout, which is simply

not can be the case. So, what we are doing is predicting it based on

those who are ten out of ten, certain to vote, and it really

benefits UKIP, it benefits them democratically, demographically,

with the older age profile, who are going to vote. Another poll gives

them only a one-point lead, so, come the results coming out, you are

either going to look away ahead of your time or very stupid?

Absolutely. That is the job of pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong.

Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009, and we are hoping to be spot on on

Thursday. So you were spot on on voting intention in 2009? Yes. What

does the indications of what is now a four party system mean, does it

change the nature of your methods? It changes how we look at the polls,

how we look at what is going to happen as a result of the vote.

Predicting the number of seats is becoming more and more important and

more difficult to do, because distribution is becoming

fundamentally important. Because it is for parties? That's right. . Does

the polling give us any evidence to try to settle the matter of whether

UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We know that over 50% of the UKIP vote

share is coming from the Conservatives come people who did

vote Conservative in 2010. But actually, the other 50% is coming

from a wide range of different sources. And what we are seeing is

that ultimately, every single establishment party should be

worried, because the people voting for UKIP are the people that really

do not like politics at the moment. They are wanting people to speak on

their behalf, so it affects all of them. There is evidence that there

is now a move of some working-class Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's

right. That is what I mean about the establishment vote, the people that

they can really reach out to, who are really interested in things like

immigration, in those single issues, where they do not feel the political

parties of the mainstream are representing them. I would suggest

that for the European elections, where turnout is low, ComRes may be

right or wrong, but likely to vote would seem to be the yardstick. I

would say that is true in almost any European election apart from this

one. Because there has been so much attention on this election, because

of UKIP and the probably do that they will win second, I wonder

whether it is now such a big topic of conversation, the subject of

Nigel Farage, that people who would otherwise talk a good game about

voting UKIP but do not show up on the day are this time around likely

to show up on the day? I am not entirely convinced by that. We

underestimate how many people are completely disengaged by politics. I

think it is very easy for us to think, and I agree that by any other

standards, this is the most coverage a European election has ever had in

Britain, but still, most people don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you

would think, if you are a UKIP photo, if you have made that choice,

then you would probably be more motivated to go and vote on

Thursday? I am sure that is right. Also, the publicity that Nigel

Farage has had. And also, as Catherine says, people are attracted

to UKIP because they are annoyed with the established parties. If you

have made that big decision to do it, then you will probably do it.

The really big question which we want to take out of these elections

is, how many people who have left the established parties, left the

Conservative Party, in these elections on Thursday, how many of

them will stick with UKIP and how many of them will go back? Nigel

Farage is very confident, he is saying that 60% of those certain to

vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If that happens, it is a real problem

for Downing Street. Downing Street are basically saying that many

Tories will have a fling with UKIP but they will return to the marital

home next year. You do two sorts of polling, for the European elections,

and for the general election, which may be more relevant to the local

election voters, but what is the answer to his question? We do not

know at the moment. We when you ask people how likely they are to vote

in the same way, they are thinking that actually, I am going to vote in

exactly the same way at the general election, they are not going to say,

I am going to split my vote. I think the key point is, what happens in

the Euros. We have a fixed term parliament, which means momentum is

crucial. What comes out of the Euros will be a statement about how well

UKIP can last for the next year, or indeed, if it comes second, it is

about momentum and feeling about the parties. I do not think we can tell

yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will

have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the

screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could

be in some trouble. The Labour MP for Rochdale talking about the

mantra of misery which is Labour's policy is not going down well. And

there are also rumbles about, if Mr Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in

the European elections, that there will be a plot to remove him. There

are not many names behind that plot yet, but Vince Cable does get an

honourable mention! Not that he is plotting, but he could take over! If

Labour comes a poor second, and the Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is

nowhere, there is a Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't

there? It will be very different for each man. The worst thing that could

happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg loses his job, because he will be

replaced by somebody substantially to the left of him, you would have

to assume, someone like Tim Farron. I think it is unlikely that David

Laws Danny Alexander, the two prominent figures who are to the

right of him, would win the leadership. If it is someone who is

quite a way to the left of Nick Clegg, then some voters might find

the party a more attractive proposition. Which is why the Tories

want to hold on to Nick Clegg. Absolutely. But I think you are

right, there is a really big bubble for Ed Miliband here. The second big

thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris

Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the

chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But

where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called

Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently.

And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not

lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And

some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves,

Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression

that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed

Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this

rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although

that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in

the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the

economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on

your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference

between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was

elected in 2008 after the crash, so everything he did was about rescue.

The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls is that they were in power

when the crash happened, so it is difficult to make that comparison.

Labour is nip and tuck with the Tories, or ahead by a small amount -

Mr Miliband's personal ratings are much worse than what David

Cameron's were at the same stage in the political cycle, does that

matter? I think personal ratings do matter, particularly if things like

Ukraine gained more prominence in the media. It is a question of who

you want as your statesman. But on the economy specifically, actually,

the economic ratings in terms of confidence in the leader has not

changed. That has not changed for years now. It is pretty stable.

Actually, the narrowing of the polls could be due to the usual narrowing

about 12 months out from the election, and Labour really need to

use the momentum. Thank you for that. Plenty to talk about after you

all go to the polls on Thursday. There will be tonnes of election

coverage and results on the BBC, Thursday night, Friday, and of

course, Sunday night, when the European results come out. Daily

Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow lunchtime. I will be back here next

Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it

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