25/05/2014 Sunday Politics London

Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats

say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go

after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a

catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the

UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the

UKIP Fox is in the Westminster henhouse. And should politicians

wait until the cameras are switched off to eat?

In London, Labour pound to the town hall spread, the Liberal Democrats

disappeared, UKIP failed to show. More analysis in just over half an

hour. Cooped up in the Sunday Politics

henhouse, our own boot should -- bunch of headless chickens. Nick

Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The Liberal Democrats lost over 300

councillors on Thursday, on top of the losses in previous years, the

local government base has been whittled away in many parts of the

country. Members of the European Parliament will face a similar

comment when the results are announced tonight. A small but

growing chorus of Liberal Democrats have called on Nick Clegg to go.

This is what the candidate in West Dorset had to say.

People know that locally we worked incredibly hard on their councils

and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is perceived to have not been

and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is trustworthy in leadership. Do you

trust him? He has lacked bone on significant issues that are the core

values of our party. This is how the party president

responded. At this time, it would be foolish

for us as a party to turn in on ourselves. What has separated us

from the Conservatives is, while they have been like cats in a sack,

we have stood united, and that is what we will continue to do. The

major reason why is because we consented to the coalition, unlike

the Conservatives. We had a vote, and a full conference.

Is there a growing question over Nick Clegg's leadership? Different

people have different views. My own view is I need to consult my own

activists and members before coming to a conclusion. I am looking at

holding a meeting for us to discuss the issue. I have been told by some

people they do not think a meeting is required, they think he should

stay, and other people have decided he should go. As a responsible

Democrat, I should consult the members here before coming to my

conclusions. What is your view at the moment? I have got to listen to

my members. But you must have some kind of you. Because I have an open

mind, I do not think he must stay, I am willing to say I have not made my

mind up. From a news point of view, that is my official position. I can

assure you there is not much news in that! I said earlier I am not going

to say he must go must stay, I am consulting my members. But you must

have some kind of view of your own before you have listened to your

members. There are people who are wrongfully sanctioned and end up

using food banks, I am upset about that, because we should not

allow... I do not mind having a sanctioning system, that I get

constituents who are put in this position, we should not accept that.

I rebel on the issue of a referendum on membership of the EU. I am also

concerned about the way the rules have been changed in terms of how

parents are treated in their ability to take children to funerals out of

school time. There are questions about the leader's responsible T for

those policies. Nick Clegg has made it clear he is a staunch

pro-European, he wants the Liberal Democrats to be in, he does not want

a referendum, if you lose a chunk of your MEPs tonight, what does that

say about how in June you are with written public opinion? There are

issues with how you publish your policies. I do not agree 100% with

what the government is doing or with what Nick Clegg says. I do think we

should stay within the EU, because the alternative means we have less

control over our borders. There is a presentational issue, because what

UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse in terms of control of borders,

which is their main reason for wanting to leave, which is strange.

There are debate issues, but I have got personal concerns, I do worry

about the impact on my constituents when they face wrongful sanctions.

You have said that. A fellow Liberal Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg

to a general at the Somme, causing carnage amongst the troops. I am

more interested in the policy issues, are we doing the right

things? I do think the coalition was essential, we had to rescue the

country from financial problems. My own view on the issue of student

finance, we did the right thing, in accordance with the pledge, which

was to get a better system, more students are going to university,

and more from disadvantaged backgrounds. But there are issues.

But Nick Clegg survive as leader through till the next election? It

depends what odds you will give me! If you are not going to give me is,

I am not going to get! If you listen to John hemming, he has got nothing

to worry about. He does have something to worry about, they lost

300 seats, on the uniform swing, you would see people like Vince cable

and Simon Hughes lose their seats. But nobody wants to be the one to

we'll be nice, they would rather wait until after the next election,

and then rebuild the party. Yes, there is no chance of him walking

away. Somebody like Tim Farron or Vince Cable, whoever the successor

is, though have to close the dagger ten months before an election, do

they want that spectacle? If I were Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is

reasonably obvious that the left-wing voters who defect had

towards the Labour Party in 2010 will not return while he is leader.

And anything he was going to achieve historically, the already has done.

Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed Miliband or David Cameron, he has

transformed the identity of the party, they are in government. Had

it not been for him, they would have continued to be the main protest

party, rather than a party of government. So he has got to take it

all the way through until the election. If he left now, he would

look like he was a tenant in the conservative house. What we are

seeing is an operation to destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a

Liberal Democrat one, so it is chaotic. There are people who have

never really been reconciled to the coalition and to Nick Clegg, they

are pushing for this. What is Nick Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron?

-- what is Vince Cable going to do? Vince Cable is in China, on a

business trip. It is like John Major's toothache in 1990. What is

Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick Clegg, because he knows that his

best chances of being leader are as the Westland candidate, the person

who picks up the mess in a year. Vince Cable's only opportunity is on

this side of the election. But you say they are not a party of

government, but what looks more likely is overall the -- is no

overall control. You might find a common mission looking appealing.

They could still hold the balance of power. A lot of people in the Labour

Party might say, let's just have a minority government. 30 odds and

sods who will not turn up to vote. If they want to be up until 3am

every morning, be like that! When you were in short trousers, it was

like that every night, it was great fun! The Liberal Democrats will not

provide confidence to a minority government, they will pull the plug

and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg lead the Liberal Democrats into the

next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am sorry, Nick Clegg, you are

finished! We will speak to Paddy Ashdown in the second part of the

show to speak about the Liberal Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could

not deliver the promised earthquake, but it produced enough shock waves

to discombobulated the established parties. They are struggling to work

out how to deal with them. We watched it all unfold.

Behind the scenes of any election night is intensely busy. Those in

charge of party strategy and logistics want their people focused,

working with purpose and rehearsed to make sure their spin on the

results is what viewers remember and take on board. A bit of a buzz of

activity inside the BBC's studio, kept and primed for the results.

What this does not show due is the exterior doubles up for hospital

dramas like Holby City, there are doorways that are mock-ups of

accident and emergency, but the electorate will discover which of

the parties they have put into intensive care, which ones are

coming out of recovery and which ones are in rude health. We joined

David Dimbleby. Good evening, welcome to the BBC's new election

centre. When three big beasts become for on the political field, things

have changed. Eric Pickles says we will be seen off next year, we will

see you at Westminster! This party is going to break through next year,

and you never know, we might even hold the balance of power. Old

messages that gave voters in excuses to go elsewhere on the ballot paper

exposed the older players to questions from within their ranks.

In the hen house of the House of Commons, the fox that wants to get

in has ruffled feathers. The reason they have had amazing success, a

rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna says about being a repository, but

they have also managed to sound like human beings, and that his Nigel

Farage's eight victory. For some conservatives, a pact was the best

form of defence. It would be preferable if all members of UKIP

and voters became Tories overnight. That seems to be an ambitious

proposition. Therefore, we need to do something that welcomes them on

board in a slightly different way. Labour had successes, but nobody but

they're wizards of Spain was completely buying a big success

story. Gaffes behind the scenes and strategic errors were levelled at

those who have managed the campaign. They have played a clever game, you

shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP does quite well but not well enough,

that helps Labour get in. That kind of mindset will not win the general

election, and we saw that in the tap ticks and strategy, and that is why,

on our leaflets for the European elections, we chose deliberately not

to attack UKIP, that was a bad error. Not so, so somebody who has

been in that spotlight. If you look at the electoral maths, UKIP will

still be aiming at the Tories in a general election. They are the

second party in Rotherham, Labour will always hold what the room, it

is safe, there is no point being second in a safe seat. UKIP have

taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they will target. The question for the

next election, can they make a challenge? The Tories will be under

the gun from UKIP. The substance of these results is UKIP not in

government, they do not have any MPs, they do not run a single

Council, at dismissing them ceased to be an option. The question is,

who will they heard most and how do you smoke the keeper's threat?

Joining me now, day about and Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not

enough was done for the elections? No, we have very good results around

Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon, Redbridge, and we picked off council

wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked

on. The Ashcroft polling shows that in key marginals, we are well ahead

and on course to win in 2015. I will be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to

Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis of the local elections your national

share of the vote would be just 31%, only two points ahead of the Tories,

only two points ahead of Gordon Brown's disastrous performance in

2010. Why so low? National share is one thing but I am talking about

what we are doing in the key marginals. Clearly some were taken

away from others like Rotherham but we have got many voters back. You

are only two points better than you were in 2010 and use of your worst

defeat in living memory. That is the totality. What matters

is seat by seat, that is what the Republicans found in the

presidential elections. Patrick O'Flynn, you performed well in the

local election but it wasn't an earthquake. It is definitely true

that Labour did well in London but that is a double-edged sword because

you have an increasing disconnect between the metropolis and the rest

of the country. Our vote share was somewhat depressed not just because

London is one of our weakest part of the country but because most of the

warts in London were 3-member wards and we were typically only putting

up one candidate. Even when they fared well, it still tracked down

the projected national share. I think we did well, and what was

particularly good was getting the target seat list becoming clear

before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said that basically smart folk don't vote

for UKIP. I think that is a tiny fragment of what she said. She said

London is its own entity and is increasingly different from the rest

of the country. One of the things that is different from London as

opposed to Rotherham is that we have very big parties. I have a few

thousand people in mind, Rotherham has a few hundred. People don't go

and knock on doors and talk to people, in London we have always had

to do that. London is full of young voters, full of ethnically diverse

voters, that is why you are not doing well, you don't appeal to live

there. I think London in general has a very different attitude to mass

uncontrolled immigration. Londoners know that if an immigrant moves in

next door to you, to use Nigel Farage's phrase, the world doesn't

end tomorrow. People in the big cities know that, that is the point.

What Diane Abbott is doing is try to convince London of its moral

superiority so I am delighted... It is a simple fact that immigrants do

not end the world if they move in next door. The economic recovery is

getting more robust by the month, you have a seriously to ship problem

according to many people on your own site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote

is as good as it gets. Those who go round bitching about Ed Miliband

have been doing that before the result. We have all polled very

well. Ed Miliband does not polled very well. He has actually fashioned

some really effective policies. Unemployment is tumbling, inflation

is falling, growth is strengthening, and you have a leader who claims

there is a cost of living crisis and he doesn't have a clue about his own

cost of living. I think that was poor staff work. That he doesn't

know what goes in his own shopping basket? I think his own staff could

have prepared him for that. My point is that the numbers are looking

better, we know that, but people don't feel better off. Then why are

all consumer index polls better? They are feeling confident. They may

be saying that, but people are worried about their future, their

children's future. That is not what you buy today or tomorrow. If you

ask people about their future and their children's future and

prospects, they feel frightened. What will be a good result for you

in the general election? We need to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP

and he mustn't go there on his own. How many people do you think will be

with him? Who knows, but we will have 20 to 30 target seat and if you

put together the clusters we got in last year's County elections with

the one we got this year, you can have a good guess at where they

are. A number of people who voted for you and Thursday say they are

going to back to the three main parties in general election. It

would be foolish of me to say that they are going to stay. Some have

said they have just lent their votes but voters hate being taken for

granted. It is up to us to broaden our agenda, and build on our

strengths, work on our weaknesses. Ed Miliband may have to do a deal

with him. We have been here before, but the UKIP bubble is going to

burst and that may happen around the time of Newark. Are you going to win

Newark now? We are going to give it a really good crack. We love being

the underdog, we don't see it as being the big goal -- the be all and

end all. If you're going to get a big bounce off the elections, not to

go and win your shows people who govern in Parliament, they don't

vote for you. It is Labour who have given up the campaign already so we

need a really big swing in our favour and we will give it a great

crack. The bubble will burst at the Newark by-election, trust me. Have

you been to Newark? Newark will see from local people... Where is it? It

is outside the M25, I can tell you that. My point is that we are set

for victory in 2015. I want to run this clip and get your take on it,

an interview that Nigel Farage did with LBC. What they do is they have

an auditor to make sure they spend their money in accordance with their

rules. You say that is if there is something wrong with it. Hang on,

hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is this a friend in the media or a

member of the political class? Do you regret doing that now? What were

you doing? No, I was trying to get Nigel Farage to a more important

interview with Sunday Times that had painstakingly organised. He was on

there? I have told the LBC people next door that he was running over.

So you interrupted a live interview and you don't regret that? No,

because just between us I wasn't a massive enthusiast for that

interview taking place at all. I know what James O'Brien is like and

I knew it wouldn't be particularly edifying. But your boss wasn't happy

with the intervention. Sometimes the boss gets shirty. We all upset our

boss every now and again, but anyway you could be an MEP by this time

tomorrow and you won't have to do this job any more. You can then just

count your salary and your expenses. I will make the contribution my

party leader asked me to, to restore Britain to being a self-governing

country. Are you going to stay in the job or not? I would not be able

to do the job in the same way but I would maybe have some kind of

overview. We will leave it there. Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former

deputy chairman, produced a mammoth opinion poll of more than 26,000

voters in 26 marginal constituencies, crucial seat that

will decide the outcome of the general election next year. In 26

constituencies people were asked which party's candidate they would

support, and Labour took a healthy 12 point lead, implying a swing of

6.5% from Conservatives to Labour from the last general election. That

implies Labour would topple 83 Tory MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in

second place in four seats, and three of them are Labour seats.

Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP

supported the Tories at the last election. As many as have switched

from Labour and the Lib Dems combined.

The communities Secretary Eric Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft

Paul that gives Labour a massive 12 point lead in the crucial marginal

constituencies, you would lose 83 MPs if this was repeated in an

election. It doesn't get worse than that, does it? Yesterday I went

through that Paul in great detail, and what it shows is that in a

number of key seats we are ahead, and somewhere behind, and I think is

Michael rightly shows... You are behind in most of them. This is

Michael rightly shows... You are snapshot and we have a year in which

the economy is going to be improving, and we have a year to say

to those candidates that are fighting those key seats, look, just

around the corner people are ahead in the same kind of seat as you and

we need to redouble our efforts. The Tory brand is dying in major parts

of the country, you are the walking dead in Scotland, and now London,

huge chunks of London are becoming a no-go zone for you. That's not true

with regard to the northern seats. Tell me what seats you have? In

terms of councillors we are the largest party in local government.

After four years in power... You are smiling but no political party has

ever done that. You haven't got a single councillor in the great city

of Manchester. We have councillors in Bradford and Leeds, we have

more... You haven't got an MP in any of the big cities? We have more

councillors in the north of England than Labour. A quarter of those who

say they would vote UKIP and did vote UKIP supported the Tories at

the last election. Why are so many of your 2010 voters now so

disillusioned? Any election will bring a degree of churning, and we

hope to get as many back as we can, but we also want to get Liberal

Democrats, people who voted for the Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we

concentrate on one part of the electorate, then we won't take power

and I believe we will because I believe we represent a wide spectrum

of opinion in this country and I believe that delivering a long-term

economic plan, delivering prosperity into people 's pockets will be felt.

On the basis of the local election results, you would not pick up a

single Labour seat in the general election. You make the point that it

is about local elections. Seats that Labour should have taken from us

they didn't, which is important... I am asking what possible Labour seat

you would hope to win after the results on Thursday. Local elections

are local elections. The national election will have a much bigger

turnout, it will be one year from now, we will be able to demonstrate

to the population that the trends we are seeing already in terms of the

success of our long-term economic plan, they will be feeling that in

their pockets. People need to feel secure about their jobs and feel

that their children have a future. Maybe so many of your people are

defecting to UKIP because on issues that they really care about like

mass immigration, you don't keep your promises.

We have reduced immigration and the amount of pull factors. Let me give

you the figures. You have said a couple of things are not true. You

promised to cut net immigration to under 100,000 by 2015, last year it

rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have broken your promise. We still intend

to reduce the amount from non-EU countries. I want to be clear, I

have no problem with people coming here who want to work and pay their

national insurance and tax, to help fund the health service. What I have

objection to our people coming here to get the additional benefits. You

made the promise. It is our intention to deliver it. People

defect to UKIP because mainstream politicians to -- like yourself do

not give straight answers. Can you be straight, you will not hit your

immigration target by the election, correct? We will announce measures

that. People factor. Will you hit your target? It is a year from now,

it is our intention to move towards the target. Is it your intention, do

you say you will hit your target of under 100,000 net migration by the

election? We will do our damnedest. But you will not make it. I do not

know that to be fact. They also vote UKIP cos they do not trust you and

Europe, David Cameron has promised a referendum, he has vowed to resign

if he does not deliver one, but still your voters vote for UKIP.

There were reasons why people voted for UKIP. A great deal of anger

about the political system, about the Metropolitan elite that they see

running programmes like this and the political programmes. We need to

listen to their concerns and address them. David Cameron has got a better

record on delivery. He vetoed a treaty, he stopped us having to bail

out the currency. Why are you likely to convert a night in the European

elections? If you do come third, it will show they do not trust you on

Europe. Next year, we will face a general election, about having money

in people's pockets, about who will run the country. David Davis wants

to China and get the voters to trust the Tories on the referendum, he was

the pledge to be brought forward to 2016. He is a clever guy. But if you

are going to try to negotiate a better deal to give the population a

better choice, you cannot do that in a year, you will require two years.

You are an Essex MP, you know about Essex people, it must be depressing

that they are now voting for UKIP. I do not have any UKIP in my

constituency. I felt bad to see Basildon go down and to see the

leader go down. Do you know why that is? The Tory party does not resonate

with the Essex people in the way that the Margaret Thatcher party

did. That is why you did not get a majority in 2010 and why you will

not win in 2015. We need to connect better. They will want to know about

their children's future, will they have a job, a good education? When

it comes to electing a national government, they do not want to see

Ed Miliband in office. They are voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of

what government you get, do you want to see David Cameron in number ten

or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to see David Cameron. You only got 36%

of the vote four years ago, your party, occurs you did not get the

Essex people in the same numbers, like John Major or Margaret Thatcher

did. You need more than 36% in 2015 to win the election. On Thursday,

your share was 29%. We were 2% behind Labour. They did not do very

well either. A year before, -- a year before the election in 1997,

they were on 43%. It is highly deliver the votes. We have a

campaign looking at the marginals. We know exactly where we are not

doing as well as we should be. I am a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do

you think he does this to be helpful? He is a great man and a

good conservative, I am a good friend of his. I think that his

publication was one of the best things that happened to the party.

You got 36% of the vote last time, you are down to 29, you need 38 or

39, you would get that if you had a pact with UKIP. There will be no

pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a market stall, you should put your

policies out there and you should not try to fix the market. Would you

stop a local pact? There will be no pact with UKIP. None.

It has just gone 11:35am. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland and

Northern Ireland. Coming up here, we will speak to the

Liberal Democrat election coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,

more details of your local results in the Sunday Politics where you

are. Yes, welcome from us. He to dissect

the events of the last few days, Simon Hughes and Harriet Harman.

Neighbours in Southwark, so we cannot let the borough dominate too

much, so we have gone north of the river, Bob Blackman. A bit later, we

will look at what it is about UKIP that Londoners do not appear to

like. Before that, this. This is how London looked a week

ago, and this is how it looks this morning. Labour turning the map

read, with five cancelled victories. Croydon was a direct take from the

Conservatives, and Redbridge became Labour for the first time in its

history. I want you to give the biggest round of applause for the

new leader of Redbridge Council. But the surprise victory was Hammersmith

and Fulham. They cancel that was sometimes described as David

Cameron's favourite. I am humbled, people voting for us but do not

normally vote for us. But they were disappointed for the Labour Party as

well, they had hoped to win back our ham it. Tower Hamlets is the last

borough to call, and it is also possibly the most tense atmosphere.

The police are here in high number, they have penned off an area around

the count. I declare that he is duly elected as the mayor of Tower

Hamlets. Ladies and gentlemen, the people of this borough have spoken

again. Back out on the streets, huge excitement as he greeted the crowd.

Can I just say this... There was disappointment for Labour after

another long night in Barnet. The Conservative council had made a name

for themselves with an outsourcing projects, they had given a private

company money to run the council. It was hugely controversial, it made

national headlines and was opposed here locally by the Labour Party and

the trade unions. On a night when the Conservative party is not in the

ascendancy, we have done well, and I am pleased. It shows that doing

something is worthwhile. It is a victory for the Conservatives in

Barnet, but only by the closest of margins. The Conservatives will be

celebrating, but across London, there is not much for them to be

happy about. The greatest consolation was taking Kingston. The

Liberal Democrats had a difficult campaign defending the highest

council tax in London and for the former leader being jailed for

possessing child pornography. But the Conservatives are proud of the

work they put in. We are winning boroughs we have not held since

1982. Losing Kingston left the Liberal Democrats with just one

cancel in London, Sutton. In boroughs where they faced the Labour

Party, they have been wiped out. Islington, Southwark, Lambeth, they

have been reduced to few, if any, councillors. That'll make it more

difficult for them in future to win parliamentary seats or to build

their way back in local government. The strong showing for Labour was

not replicated in the rest of the country, reading many to ask why the

capital is now so different politically.

Where to start? Haro was one back by Labour, a pretty bad night for the

good 70s, why did it happen? Taking my borough, the same result happened

in 2010, the symbol of seats for the two major parties, and what we have

to look at across London is, we had two elections the same day, people

voted for the European elections, in large part of London, there were no

ticket candidates. We will see the European results later, but the

voters have the choice about the local council elections. We do not

know what they did. For us, the local level, in large parts of

London, we did extremely well, we held our share, and in many parts of

London, we moved forward. You are not on the marginal list, but you

Labour need a 3% swing to beat you in the next election? Don't you feel

you are looking a lot less safe? My seat, we help all of our council

seats and we won the popular vote by quite a long way. In the wards in

your constituency, there were somewhere there was a swing towards

Labour, three or 4%. No. None at all? You can look at individual

results. You feel the same as you felt a week ago about what your

position was? What we have, the Liberal Democrat vote went away in

large parts of London, and it was a straight vote between us and the

Labour Party. The choice that we are going to put is simple, you want Ed

Miliband in number ten or David Cameron? Diane Abbott said that

people like Vince Cable and yourself, despite the incumbency and

the fact you have had in Southwark, you are goners. Anybody who predicts

a year out is foolish. Labour had a good night in London, much better in

London than elsewhere in the country, UKIP did not make a

breakthrough in London, I am pleased about that, which says something

about the cosmopolitan nature of London. We did best in Southwark

against any Labour facing seat in London. We still retained a majority

of the seats we retained. If you years back, you run the council. We

have never had a majority in Southwark, Labour have had it

historically. We would have liked to have held all of our seats, but we

defended the majority of the seats we were fighting, both in the

borough and my patch. The number of councillors... When you need foot

soldiers, people fighting these campaigns, you have been known to

fight this battle is well, you have not got the platform any more. We

held sodden with an increased majority, we lost Kingston, and in

other places, we did well, Haringey retained it together can present.

There were places where we were sadly eliminated, but this was not

against Labour. I gave the Tories, we have done much better, and with a

year to go, we will concentrate on the places where we can win. Is this

really good for Labour, but if you bury down, you take the point about

not much difference in some of the share, a lot of the seats you need

to win next year, when you see it is Liberal Democrat voters that have

not gone for them, which has allowed you to win control of the councils,

it is not really an optimistic position today? We are very pleased

with what happened as a result of her people voted. We have 200 more

councillors across London, the Liberal Democrats and Tories have

fewer councillors, and we hold five more councils. I think people have

heard our arguments about trying to control rent, so people do not find

they cannot afford their rent, Labour councils have been promising

and building more homes, helping with childcare costs. There is a

question of what the label -- the Labour council manifesto has been

offering people. Also, we have got a lot of Labour members who have been

knocking on doors, talking to people. There is a lot of

disaffection with politics, people feel politicians do not understand

their lives, so the fact we have had a big campaign means that people

have seen the political people on their doorstep. Might it not be

really frustrating that all that work might be happening in London

but because of the leadership of the party perhaps, and how that is

working on the doorstep, it might come to nothing next year. On this I

agree with Simon, it is slightly invidious to predict from here what

will happen in 2015 because we are in an unprecedented situation with

the Lib Dems in coalition... For you it could get worse, couldn't

it? In the marginal constituencies, there are senses that we are making

progress there. We did exceptionally well in London but in the rest of

the country as well. It could only get worse if you are speaking as a

London MP that wants to get re-elected. The reason why we have a

discussion about the cost of living and about people not being able to

make ends meet and be an affordability of rent and childcare

and transport, that is because of Ed Miliband saying that the cost of

living is an issue, can we discuss it. Do you think they hear that from

him, rather than deciding... They know it is Labour and Ed Miliband --

under Ed Miliband that has been saying your fuel bill is a problem.

The truth is that even from opposition, Ed Miliband has set the

agenda. Even though people say the streets of London are paved with

gold there is a real affordability issue there. Hammersmith and Fulham,

you will be familiar, you have a good knowledge, what happened there?

It is a massive defeat. Hammersmith and Fulham was a long-time Labour

borough, a surprise gain for us... 2002 you first took it, 12 years you

have had it. We can forget ancient history then. The key is that they

did a really good job of reducing the burden of taxation, improving

services, but on the day, and I think we have all analysed these

results to death, but on the day people went out and decided, OK, one

of the issues is that the success of the Coalition government in enabling

councils to freeze council tax means that a lot of people feel it is not

such a big issue any more. Really? This shows... Are you saying Labour

authorities reducing and council tax shouldn't matter so much? There is

less risk to voters of having a council that is high spending

because they know it is frozen thanks to a government grant. At a

localised level, what are you competing on? What are you selling

to people? So we end up with a lot of people voting on national issues.

Presumably you would argue your party is not delivering on the local

list agenda? Lots of power is being transferred to local authorities and

two cities, we need to move faster and one of the things I want to see

is more power pop in the hands of local politicians. The last words on

this section, we have just identified the problem but what do

you do now about getting back in this short time? The party must feel

so demoralised. It is issues that matter at the end of the day, we

have done well on lots of things like income tax and

apprenticeships, the two big issues people feel angry about are the

widening gap between the rich and the rest, and the fact that people

on normal wages cannot afford houses in London. Two proposals could be

getting rid of bedroom tax... The big talking point has been the big

gains made by UKIP throughout the country. Nigel Farage said the fox

had got into the Westminster henhouse but here in London it felt

like the fox getting in through a hole in the perimeter fence.

Last week UKIP had 24 councillors in London, they now found themselves

with half but London picking up just 12 seats out of more than 1800

available in the capital. Pave ring had been their number one

target. -- Havering. Our voluntary structure in London is behind, 12,

18 months behind where it is in other parts of the country. Others

will tell you UKIP had a more profound effect than the results

might suggest. What has happened is that UKIP of taking votes from us.

In this area, the seat has been turned from Labour to an area with

no overall control. The fear of immigration perhaps in Europe is

greater where the numbers of migrants

determine the outcome of the general election. The Mayor of London said

he thinks the Conservatives need to argue for new restrictions on EU

migration. We should support a sinus -- support a society that is willing

to allow people to make their lives, if and only if they are willing to

work. But we cannot do that with our current structure, anyone can come

over and that is what Nigel Farage is picking up on. What are your

thoughts on that? I think you need to have a system that allows you to

insist that when people come here, they do so because they are highly

qualified and they have a job to do. So we need to renegotiate the

current rules? It has been my view for a long time. The mayor will be

hoping this is a message that resonates not just with the voter

but the leadership of his party. Lawrence Webb, the UKIP councillor

elected in Havering again, is here with us.

You got elected, but what on earth happened? Bear in mind that in 2010

we didn't have any councillors elected in London. This time we have

450 in places we have never stood before. You had a presence... Where

we haven't got elected, we are very much the runner-up. If you look at

results in Havering, in all but that we have been a runner-up in all the

places we haven't won. You went in with 12, defectors from

Conservatives or whatever. One or two of those were in very strong

safe Tory seat. One of the safest Conservative seat is now marginal.

Clearly you are probably disappointed you didn't get quite

what you hoped. We all want to win more. I want to explore the issue

about why it is, why is there a limit to the appeal of UKIP in

London? I don't think there is. I think it is more to do with the fact

we don't have a history of fighting in these seats. We put up 400

candidates... No one can be unaware UKIP were standing and hoping to

make progress in these elections. They don't need to have seen you

before, do they? Of course, people need to have seen you in the area.

UKIP have stolen a leaf from your book... When you hear about Suzanne

Evans saying it is because people are more intelligent or because they

read the newspapers, that is why they don't go to UKIP, do you agree

with that? Not necessarily, London is a very diverse area. So you don't

agree with what she says? Not particularly. I wonder why she might

have said it. That is what you might have felt in her particular ward,

but it is different across London. Naturally you would want to talk

about Havering, but in London you haven't got one councillor. You said

you don't accept there is any particular limit to your appeal in

London. It is to do with where we have been working the ground. In

2010 we put up less than 100 candidates, we put up more than 450

this time. In the key areas we have often come as runner-up. Is that

where they have been most devastating, that they have split

your vote in places, as the leader of Croydon Council said? What we

should be concentrating on is why voters are voting for a political

party, what is it about the message? What do we, as all politicians? --

as all politicians, have to learn from that? What do you feel it is

about the UKIP threat? There is a concern from many people about the

levels of immigration. In my London -- in my borough there is an

enormous influx of people. One of the most important things is that

almost all of those people who have come to our area have work, they are

contributing to the economy and they have made it their choice. What a

lot of people fear is people who come here to take a lifetime of

benefits. We hear today, Harriet Harman, that Theresa May was

thinking of deporting people if they don't have a job, would you go along

with that? As far as deportation is concerned, I do think we should

toughen the limits, toughen the situation if people come here and

commit a crime. The free movement of labour, yes, but the other thing, it

is about what happens when you come to somebody else's country. If you

come and you work and contribute, after a while it is fair enough... I

think the question is how soon you can take out of the system by way of

benefits if you haven't been working here and putting into the system. I

think people want a bit of fairness put into the system. People won't

come here if they cannot get jobs or get benefits. I think people want

fairness in the system, and if people are coming and working hard,

people will accept that but they don't like the idea they come here,

drive without insurance, run people over and still don't get deported.

The Mayor of London is saying we have got to look again, only

allowing high skilled European workers coming here. The rules are

that we are common market, lots of Brits go to live in Spain. The way

we deal with that is to make sure more people are skilled, and that is

why we -- why the apprenticeships are so important. I agree with

Harriet that for those who abuse this country, then clearly different

rules have to apply. Why not renegotiate those rules so you

wouldn't let these people in in the first place? The fundamental

principle of the European Union is that there is free movement. You

cannot rewrite retrospectively the conditions on which we entered. We

have always said we should toughen up controls so that we should

toughen up controls so that recounts people out as well as count people

in. I think actually there is more of a consensus. London didn't vote

UKIP because London is not a right-wing place, and most people in

London who come from other parts of the EU come and work and they are

well respected and therefore it is a mark integrated city. We have seen

what the Ashcroft poll says, concerns about marginals, so what

should your party do between now and next year? Obviously we will look at

the issues around immigration, and my personal view is that if people

commit crime here they should be deported. We should also review the

benefits system to make it contributory. Thank you. With that,

back to you, Andrew. Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib

Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships, as we reported at the top of the

show, and tonight it could get even worse when we get the results of the

European elections. Paddy Ashdown, former Lib Dem leader, joins me now

from our Westminster studio. Something has to change for the Lib

Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change what will it be? The messages we

have about reducing tax on the poorest, they now have traction. We

have been on many programmes of this sort before, this idea that has been

put about by these people who are calling for a leadership election is

the silliest idea I have heard in my political career. It is not serious

politics. This is the moment when we need to get out with a really good

message and campaign through the summer in the context of the general

election. Spending it on a divisive leadership contest is ridiculous. At

the very moment when our sacrifices are beginning to gain traction, we

turn in on ourselves. The question is, can the Liberal Democrats hack

being in government? If we were to take this step, the anther would be

no, and that would damage the party forever. It is clearly a problem,

you have had to come out and defend Nick Clegg, we have not even had the

European election results yet. It could get even worse by midnight. I

have been up here anyway, to argue the party's case in the context of

tonight. Let me try to put this in scale. We have a website which

people can join to show their ascent to the fact that they like cake, it

is called Liberal Democrats like cake, it has more people signed up

than this website that is calling for a leadership election. Something

like 200, of course this happens from time to time, the wonder is you

are talking -- you are taking it seriously. Your colleagues are

taking it seriously, including sitting MPs. People trot out a list

of achievements that the party would like to be associated with, he began

doing just that, but you have been doing that for months, if not for

over a year, your ratings in the polls are terrible, you had a

terrible local election, and you will probably have a terrible

European election. It will cut through much better in the context

of an election, we have been talking about the European elections. We

have been here a long time, let me take you back, we have had tough

times, in 1989, we came last in every constituency in Britain, save

one, behind the Green party. One or two voices said, you have got to

ditch the leader, me, you had one of them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I

recall. One or two said we had to change course, but we stood our

ground, and in the general election we not only re-established our

position from a base of almost nothing, we laid the basis and

foundation for doubling our seats in 1997. That is what the party can do,

they have a great message, and insert of wasting the summer and

autumn on a leadership contest, we should be doing that. Nick Clegg had

two opportunities to put part of that message across in the debate

over Europe, but the party poll ratings fell after that. What Nick

elected us to try to fill a vacuum of antique European rhetoric. And he

lost. He could not change the best part of a generation of

anti-European propaganda in a couple of performances? He lost the second

debate more than the first. It is a long-term programme. Nick Clegg had

the courage to take us into government. He took that decision

before the party and gained 75, 80% support in a democratic vote. He has

led the party with outstanding judgement. He has showed almost

incredible grace under fire, being attacked from all sides, because

some people hate the coalition, and he has the courage to do what no

other Liberal Democrat leader has done, to stand up before the British

people and say unequivocally, we are in favour of Europe. He is a man of

courage, integrity, decency, he is one of the best prime ministers

Britain has not got. In the context of a general election, that will go

through. I am devoted to the man, he can do amazingly well in the general

election. But he is losing local elections again and again, the

European elections, and he is on track to lose the general election.

European elections are not easy for us. Whatever happens tomorrow

morning, it will not be bad -- as bad as 1989. We have had that line.

In the context of a general election, we fought our way back,

this time, we have been in government, we start from a higher

base, we have a message to tell about how we alone have taken the

tough decisions to get this country out of the worst economic mess it

has ever seen, left to us by the Labour Party. We can go out in the

context of a general election and fight for that. My guess is that the

resurgence of the party in the context of a general election will

be far greater than you are suggesting.

We have done the Liberal Democrats, that move onto the other parties.

How bad a leadership problem does Ed Miliband have? He has a continuation

of a problem he has had for a long time. The Labour Party thought they

had a soft lead, and they have the same situation, everybody is hanging

on. They have to make a breakthrough. The big thing is that

lots of people at Shadow Cabinet wish they had taken on UKIP, why was

Labour turning its fire on the Liberal Democrats? They should have

been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken seats from them, such as in

Rotherham. They have finally woken up. I think there is a class war

breaking out, the northerners have taken against Ed Miliband and the

Metropolitan sophisticates around them... One Labour MP has said, we

do not want these guacamole eating people from North London! A number

doing that. They wanted to take the fight to UKIP, because UKIP is

getting working-class, Northern Labour votes. John Mann said it was

ridiculous that the Labour Party did not put posters in the North of

England to say that Nigel Farage regarded Margaret Thatcher as his

heroine. But in a funny way, those Northern Labour MPs are speaking for

the South, because the Labour Party will only win the general election

if it takes back those seats in the south, the south-east, a couple of

seats in the south-west that Tony Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge

that. It is important to say they did win the local elections, they

got 31%, but that was only to bustle -- two points hang-up the

Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38% in 1991, the year before John Major

got the largest in of votes ever. There is unease in the shadow

cabinet about why Ed Miliband did not take on UKIP on immigration

earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we should not be calling UKIP names, we

should be calling them out, and he would say he did call them out. The

unease in the party has made the results worse for them than they

should have been, they did pretty well on Thursday. Although UKIP took

votes from them in safe seats, in the end, it will not make much

difference. UKIP is taking votes from Tories in marginals. It made it

appear that Labour have not done well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot

of the Labour MPs who came out on Friday morning had been practising

their lines in expectation of a disappointing result. In the north,

I do not think UKIP's status of the main nonlabour right-wing party will

damage Labour. If you have a majority of 25,000... But in the

South and Midlands, UKIP could break the non-Tory vote in such a way as

to cost Labour marginal seats that they would otherwise win. As for the

Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116 or 17% of the popular vote in the

European elections and fell to 3% in the general election. You mentioned

Europe, the Tories are anticipating finishing third, they did not do

well on Thursday, they seem to be putting everything on Europe, we

will beat UKIP in Newark. That is the line I am getting from them. The

Liberal Democrats and Labour are nowhere there, they both got 20% of

the vote, the Tories got 53%, a majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need

to do well to have an enormous increase on last time. This seed is

a referendum on Tories against UKIP, which we have not seen so far. I was

there for the rocky road packed. David Cameron gave a piece of rocky

road to Boris Johnson, saying, you know you want it, Boris. The Tories

must be a head, because at the bakery stores, the blue buns outsold

the UKIP buns. Ed Miliband bit off more than he

could chew when he turned launch into a budgeted last week, but he is

not the first politician to make a meal of it.

I love a hot pasty, the choice was to have a small one or a large one,

and I opted for the large one, and very good it was, too.

The significance of the Ed Miliband business is more about the media, we

can amplify nothingness, but because the narrative is that Ed Miliband is

accident prone, even eating a big concern which becomes an accident.

He is deemed to be weird, so we find pictures that support the

conclusion. It is a class issue, you reveal your social class by what you

eat, what supermarket you go to. You can play somebody accurately.

Politicians are largely of a different class from the voters, and

as soon as you ask them about food, it becomes apparent. To thine own

self be true, David Cameron pretending he was interested in

Cornish pasties, he does the cooking at the weekend, lots of posh food,

do not pretend to be something you are not. The problem for Ed Miliband

with that picture, he has some abnormal people working for him, but

what he does not have is a broadcast person who can spot those pictures.

George Osborne hired Theo Rogers from the BBC, she has

transformed... She may have been guilty of the burger, but she has

transformed his image on TV. That is what Ed Miliband needs. You are

correct, it Ed Miliband was 15 points ahead in the polls, screwing

up the eating of a bacon sandwich would be seen as an endearing trait.

We might not have even noticed it. That is all this week, you can get

those European election results with David Dimbleby on vote went to 14

from 9pm on the BBC News Channel, and from 11pm on BBC One. No

programme next week, but we are back in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is

the Sunday Politics. This week, Britain has voted for its

Members of the European Parliament. What will the result tell us about

the political mood here in Britain of the results

both here and across Europe.