27/11/2016 Sunday Politics London


27/11/2016

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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

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Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?

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After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.

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Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency

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The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.

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Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms

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of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?

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Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet

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minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head.

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In London this week, how did the capital fare

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And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme

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Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news

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of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came

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to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.

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Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader

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as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked

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Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social

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justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"

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President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader

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as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death

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would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people

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finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".

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Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,

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Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader

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was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged

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I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the

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reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I

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noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to

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Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he

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was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,

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agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many

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people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been

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inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream

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consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this

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respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would

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be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.

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Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have

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looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection

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for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error

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dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?

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He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He

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wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually

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look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other

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countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a

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champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been

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utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have

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thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic

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failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when

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Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the

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debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any

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criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There

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were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would

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have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban

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solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It

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existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,

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who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday

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saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the

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world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He

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never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks

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ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The

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lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated

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stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was

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working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there

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will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet

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and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say

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it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism

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that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime

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Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to

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open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing

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brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.

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When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying

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the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as

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all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a

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leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either

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decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it

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was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure

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worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.

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There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they

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sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris

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Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to

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deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.

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And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr

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Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.

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That was what made it so fascinating.

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Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS

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in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020

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on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth

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Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling

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"Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,

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but some of the proposals are already running into local

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opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.

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Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.

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But east of England ambulance call operators

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they're sending an early intervention vehicle

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with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.

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It's being piloted here for over 65s with

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When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be

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treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.

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Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,

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taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,

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So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided

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The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able

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to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,

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to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand

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where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how

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best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems

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that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.

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This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how

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You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.

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The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.

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What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.

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Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went

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through after broad public and political consultation

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with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.

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It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS

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trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.

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It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide

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The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS

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in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion

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worth of efficiencies across the country.

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In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health

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and care partnerships, and each one will provide

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a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,

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provide better services and save money.

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So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people

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in the health service and local government,

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The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending

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growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.

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STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way

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But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number

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of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle

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ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed

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This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his

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I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close

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all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out

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of the acute sector who are elderly and looking

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That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,

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All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,

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But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.

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The Government's sustainability and transformation plans

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for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.

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The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings

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within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.

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There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.

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Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week

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about the importance of community hospitals in general,

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These are proposals out to consultation.

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What could happen if these plans get blocked?

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If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come

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to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned

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deterioration and services becoming unstable and service

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The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement

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but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs

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are in the interests of local people.

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Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England

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to push through these controversial regional plans,

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which will soon face public scrutiny.

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We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,

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I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,

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Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of

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efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of

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independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22

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billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you

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drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have

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been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that

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some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community

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pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000

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pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and

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GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,

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which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a

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local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these

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efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from

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Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve

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health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable

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transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical

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health, mental health and social care, for those services to

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collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented

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system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground

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has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,

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the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By

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2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to

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redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the

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money in. So of course, getting these services working better

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together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would

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have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the

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last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is

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an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?

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Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22

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billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.

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But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they

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said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have

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changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by

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2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by

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20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually

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transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the

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commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been

:16:29.:16:33.

cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year

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project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the

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Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week

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there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the

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efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by

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2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now

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for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with

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everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers

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and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I

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had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they

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expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by

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now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?

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To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The

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budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like

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co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a

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plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in

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2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is

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committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently

:18:09.:18:13.

John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are

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talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current

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spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the

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money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If

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you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from

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the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?

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That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for

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Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to

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give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the

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Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do

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it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give

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the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like

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any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what

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the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.

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I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election

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with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has

:19:33.:19:34.

been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.

:19:35.:19:40.

You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not

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a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment

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to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting

:19:51.:19:54.

a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about

:19:55.:19:59.

4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that

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substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have

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access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to

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be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap

:20:17.:20:20.

in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what

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this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an

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efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we

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agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see

:20:38.:20:41.

productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through

:20:42.:20:48.

investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.

:20:49.:20:55.

One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They

:20:56.:21:02.

are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe

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that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that

:21:07.:21:09.

contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking

:21:10.:21:13.

about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30

:21:14.:21:20.

billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend

:21:21.:21:26.

more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper

:21:27.:21:30.

care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40

:21:31.:21:34.

billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the

:21:35.:21:39.

account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that

:21:40.:21:44.

and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with

:21:45.:21:47.

that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we

:21:48.:21:51.

are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the

:21:52.:21:55.

investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.

:21:56.:22:03.

The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in

:22:04.:22:08.

A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in

:22:09.:22:12.

hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save

:22:13.:22:16.

the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the

:22:17.:22:19.

Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What

:22:20.:22:24.

I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your

:22:25.:22:27.

reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi

:22:28.:22:32.

Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger

:22:33.:22:38.

of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree

:22:39.:22:45.

with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a

:22:46.:22:52.

result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just

:22:53.:22:55.

going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of

:22:56.:23:00.

these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see

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if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they

:23:05.:23:08.

have the support of local authorities because they now have a

:23:09.:23:10.

role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the

:23:11.:23:15.

right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.

:23:16.:23:19.

We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they

:23:20.:23:23.

don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,

:23:24.:23:28.

you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with

:23:29.:23:32.

finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are

:23:33.:23:38.

cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like

:23:39.:23:44.

5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector

:23:45.:23:48.

in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long

:23:49.:23:53.

term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very

:23:54.:23:58.

sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the

:23:59.:24:01.

sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,

:24:02.:24:06.

which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy

:24:07.:24:12.

nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of

:24:13.:24:18.

the other countries, European countries included, we need to put

:24:19.:24:23.

up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the

:24:24.:24:28.

Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me

:24:29.:24:34.

down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up

:24:35.:24:39.

with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European

:24:40.:24:42.

average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,

:24:43.:24:46.

but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need

:24:47.:24:52.

substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was

:24:53.:24:55.

extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the

:24:56.:24:59.

Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,

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whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to

:25:05.:25:08.

us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.

:25:09.:25:11.

Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations

:25:12.:25:13.

before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait

:25:14.:25:16.

for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote

:25:17.:25:18.

If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats

:25:19.:25:22.

and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU

:25:23.:25:24.

referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before

:25:25.:25:27.

And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested

:25:28.:25:30.

that the referendum result could be reversed.

:25:31.:25:33.

In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,

:25:34.:25:36.

Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,

:25:37.:25:39.

having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis

:25:40.:25:42.

John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting

:25:43.:25:48.

of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit

:25:49.:25:51.

were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".

:25:52.:25:53.

He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"

:25:54.:25:55.

That prompted the former Conservative leader

:25:56.:25:59.

Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.

:26:00.:26:02.

He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply

:26:03.:26:05.

because they disagree with the original result does

:26:06.:26:07.

seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."

:26:08.:26:12.

So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms

:26:13.:26:15.

of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?

:26:16.:26:20.

Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect

:26:21.:26:23.

the will of the people and that means they must have their say

:26:24.:26:27.

in a referendum on the terms of the deal."

:26:28.:26:30.

But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support

:26:31.:26:33.

One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.

:26:34.:26:39.

He backs the idea of a second referendum.

:26:40.:26:42.

But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,

:26:43.:26:45.

"Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting

:26:46.:26:48.

To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum

:26:49.:26:56.

on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two

:26:57.:26:59.

In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,

:27:00.:27:02.

and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister

:27:03.:27:04.

Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have

:27:05.:27:16.

spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or

:27:17.:27:22.

you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the

:27:23.:27:28.

referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I

:27:29.:27:32.

said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we

:27:33.:27:36.

will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but

:27:37.:27:43.

we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the

:27:44.:27:49.

British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would

:27:50.:27:57.

then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's

:27:58.:28:01.

lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,

:28:02.:28:05.

you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on

:28:06.:28:10.

immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many

:28:11.:28:18.

fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be

:28:19.:28:23.

a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many

:28:24.:28:28.

occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different

:28:29.:28:33.

thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be

:28:34.:28:37.

true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the

:28:38.:28:40.

destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about

:28:41.:28:45.

the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be

:28:46.:28:50.

appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft

:28:51.:28:54.

Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more

:28:55.:28:59.

difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign

:29:00.:29:05.

but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on

:29:06.:29:09.

the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on

:29:10.:29:13.

what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and

:29:14.:29:16.

putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous

:29:17.:29:24.

idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an

:29:25.:29:28.

impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make

:29:29.:29:33.

sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard

:29:34.:29:38.

Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum

:29:39.:29:42.

campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means

:29:43.:29:47.

making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected

:29:48.:29:51.

politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting

:29:52.:29:55.

control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was

:29:56.:29:59.

clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million

:30:00.:30:05.

votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more

:30:06.:30:10.

than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14

:30:11.:30:15.

million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very

:30:16.:30:19.

clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we

:30:20.:30:24.

going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to

:30:25.:30:27.

trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better

:30:28.:30:30.

place. OK, I need to get a debate going.

:30:31.:30:40.

Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was

:30:41.:30:43.

going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a

:30:44.:30:46.

second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the

:30:47.:30:48.

worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a

:30:49.:30:53.

ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could

:30:54.:30:57.

go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the

:30:58.:31:00.

European Union is less important than the opinion of the British

:31:01.:31:04.

people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me

:31:05.:31:09.

precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain

:31:10.:31:15.

voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson

:31:16.:31:18.

and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the

:31:19.:31:23.

range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.

:31:24.:31:26.

There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,

:31:27.:31:30.

getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,

:31:31.:31:35.

this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.

:31:36.:31:43.

The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our

:31:44.:31:50.

laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of

:31:51.:31:53.

what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would

:31:54.:32:00.

be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the

:32:01.:32:05.

hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The

:32:06.:32:09.

biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British

:32:10.:32:16.

history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally

:32:17.:32:19.

proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a

:32:20.:32:25.

strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks

:32:26.:32:31.

like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.

:32:32.:32:42.

He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct

:32:43.:32:50.

possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a

:32:51.:32:54.

second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on

:32:55.:32:58.

ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British

:32:59.:33:02.

people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and

:33:03.:33:09.

keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to

:33:10.:33:18.

that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying

:33:19.:33:21.

attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have

:33:22.:33:32.

to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said

:33:33.:33:35.

that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,

:33:36.:33:41.

they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European

:33:42.:33:45.

Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the

:33:46.:33:51.

process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why

:33:52.:34:03.

Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to

:34:04.:34:06.

ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote

:34:07.:34:15.

by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it

:34:16.:34:26.

best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would

:34:27.:34:31.

have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because

:34:32.:34:36.

I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.

:34:37.:34:44.

Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The

:34:45.:34:50.

central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a

:34:51.:34:55.

destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if

:34:56.:35:00.

it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be

:35:01.:35:05.

undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on

:35:06.:35:08.

the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain

:35:09.:35:12.

members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs

:35:13.:35:18.

union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude

:35:19.:35:23.

towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the

:35:24.:35:26.

government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have

:35:27.:35:30.

no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental

:35:31.:35:35.

case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a

:35:36.:35:42.

clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment

:35:43.:35:49.

figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do

:35:50.:35:52.

to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not

:35:53.:35:59.

delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,

:36:00.:36:03.

wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people

:36:04.:36:08.

who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it

:36:09.:36:13.

will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the

:36:14.:36:17.

whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is

:36:18.:36:25.

very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the

:36:26.:36:29.

answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and

:36:30.:36:38.

French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it

:36:39.:36:44.

not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it

:36:45.:36:48.

would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I

:36:49.:36:51.

think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't

:36:52.:36:55.

been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in

:36:56.:36:58.

Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.

:36:59.:37:01.

They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic

:37:02.:37:06.

process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen

:37:07.:37:10.

suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the

:37:11.:37:18.

government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to

:37:19.:37:22.

listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,

:37:23.:37:31.

as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second

:37:32.:37:36.

referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it

:37:37.:37:39.

there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have

:37:40.:37:47.

eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!

:37:48.:37:50.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:51.:37:52.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:53.:37:55.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

:37:56.:37:58.

First, though, the Sunday Politics where you are.

:37:59.:38:06.

This week, it's a little over six months since Sadiq Khan won

:38:07.:38:12.

Given his background, growing up on an estate in south

:38:13.:38:16.

London, some have seen it as a story of ambition and aspiration

:38:17.:38:18.

Abroad, too, it's generated plenty of interest -

:38:19.:38:23.

he is of course the first Muslim mayor of a major western city.

:38:24.:38:27.

And well into his stride now, he's with us today.

:38:28.:38:29.

Well, it's tough, but I'm loving it. Being the mayor of the city you were

:38:30.:38:41.

born and raised in is a privilege and an honour. Each day, I meet some

:38:42.:38:45.

of the Londoners who help make our city the greatest city in the world,

:38:46.:38:48.

from police officers to the Fire Service to the Ambulance Service to

:38:49.:38:51.

actors and journalists and others who worked their socks off to make

:38:52.:38:55.

London the global city that we are. Have you got highlights and low

:38:56.:39:07.

lights yet? Lots of highlights. Meeting the police officers who keep

:39:08.:39:09.

us safe or doctors and Ambulance Service has been a joy. The staff at

:39:10.:39:12.

City Hall work their socks off. And also getting the first night tube

:39:13.:39:15.

was a village. I was on the Victoria Line from Brixton. That was good

:39:16.:39:17.

fun. Putting the whup affair was fun. Visiting building sites, where

:39:18.:39:22.

we are starting to get affordable homes. What about the downside?

:39:23.:39:29.

Safety and security. That is what keeps me awake at night. Being in

:39:30.:39:35.

Russell Square, I came back from holiday because I was worried it

:39:36.:39:39.

could have been a terrorist incident. The Croydon tram was the

:39:40.:39:42.

worst day since I have been mayor. My thoughts and prayers are still

:39:43.:39:44.

with those who lost their loved ones. But as tough as the job is, I

:39:45.:39:49.

am loving it. You have certainly been busy.

:39:50.:39:51.

Let's get on to the Autumn Statement first.

:39:52.:39:53.

And what did it all say about Theresa May's attitude

:39:54.:39:58.

Theresa May says her Government is all about those

:39:59.:40:02.

She cares about the Jams, people who are Just About Managing,

:40:03.:40:06.

many of whom live outside our prosperous capital and resent

:40:07.:40:08.

We see division and unfairness all around, between a more

:40:09.:40:13.

prosperous older generation and a struggling younger generation,

:40:14.:40:18.

between the wealth of London and the rest of the country.

:40:19.:40:22.

So who stood to gain from this week's Autumn Statement?

:40:23.:40:26.

The English regions - north of England - the Midlands

:40:27.:40:28.

- Northern Ireland executive - Welsh government -

:40:29.:40:30.

For too long, economic growth in our country has been too

:40:31.:40:35.

concentrated in London and the south-east.

:40:36.:40:38.

But the Chancellor still had some goodies for the capital,

:40:39.:40:41.

where London is only just about managing too.

:40:42.:40:48.

London will receive ?3.15 billion as its share of national affordable

:40:49.:40:50.

housing funding to deliver a commitment of over

:40:51.:40:53.

We are also devolving to London the adult education budget

:40:54.:41:01.

and giving London greater control over the delivery

:41:02.:41:04.

of employment support services for the hardest to help.

:41:05.:41:08.

There was a mixed reception from London councils.

:41:09.:41:12.

There was recognition in the Autumn Statement that London

:41:13.:41:14.

faces a housing crisis, and money to address that.

:41:15.:41:16.

But London also faces, along with the rest of the country,

:41:17.:41:19.

a social care crisis, and there wasn't a single

:41:20.:41:21.

mention of social care in today's Autumn Statement.

:41:22.:41:24.

And that concerns me greatly as we go into the winter period.

:41:25.:41:30.

Conspicuously absent from the Autumn Statement

:41:31.:41:33.

were a number of items from City Hall's wish list.

:41:34.:41:36.

Sadiq Khan will be disappointed that he hasn't got any

:41:37.:41:38.

Indeed, City Hall has already said that.

:41:39.:41:44.

There could have been a far more radical version of devolution

:41:45.:41:48.

offered to London by Philip Hammond, or there could have

:41:49.:41:52.

been significantly more about the possibility

:41:53.:41:54.

So what did the minister for London have to say to the Mayor of London

:41:55.:41:59.

In relation to rail, I am an MP for Croydon.

:42:00.:42:05.

I know what it's like on the Southern route at the moment.

:42:06.:42:09.

My colleague Chris Grayling, the Secretary of State

:42:10.:42:11.

for Transport, his view is that he wants to work

:42:12.:42:13.

with the mayor and TfL to work with services.

:42:14.:42:16.

But he's nervous about a complete reorganisation, because that

:42:17.:42:18.

A standout win for the mayor on housing, but what

:42:19.:42:22.

the Government to grant London more power over its own affairs?

:42:23.:42:30.

What can you do? This Budget didn't seem very London centred. It depends

:42:31.:42:42.

whether you are a glass half full or a glass half empty person. We have

:42:43.:42:46.

seen the firsts that is towards greater devolution. I am pleased

:42:47.:42:49.

about the record amounts we have been given for affordable housing.

:42:50.:42:52.

Skills devolution for those above 19. I am disappointed that the

:42:53.:43:01.

government has not matched my fares freeze with TfL. I am disappointed

:43:02.:43:04.

that we have not got devolution of the suburban lines with their

:43:05.:43:12.

cancellations and huge delays. What do you think about the signals

:43:13.:43:16.

there? It seems to be that you may not get it. They are more concerned

:43:17.:43:21.

about the operators of the track and the people responsible for the track

:43:22.:43:26.

working better together. My job is to address the concerns that the

:43:27.:43:29.

Transport Secretary has. We have a new government and I don't think it

:43:30.:43:33.

is unreasonable for them to ask these tough questions for me to

:43:34.:43:37.

answer. The good news is, across London, MPs from all parties,

:43:38.:43:42.

councils from all sides and Team London are united and we can do a

:43:43.:43:46.

better job bringing in revenues for the government. Chris Grayling

:43:47.:43:53.

doesn't see it that way. The challenge for me is to persuade him

:43:54.:43:59.

to give us more devolution. Let me tell you why it is important.

:44:00.:44:02.

Crossrail one have accepted the case that people outside London will

:44:03.:44:06.

benefit from us being in charge of that. We have already seen with the

:44:07.:44:09.

London Overground what a difference we can make running a train service

:44:10.:44:12.

for people inside and outside London. And we have recently seen

:44:13.:44:18.

the Liverpool Street are line given over to us. I have to persuade Chris

:44:19.:44:23.

Grayling, I can reassure him that if we take over Southern, we can do a

:44:24.:44:30.

good job for both Londoners and those outside London. Do you get on

:44:31.:44:35.

with Chris Grayling? We have had differences outside the chamber as

:44:36.:44:38.

you would expect from a Conservative and Labour politician, but I get on

:44:39.:44:42.

with most politicians. I am seeing Chris next week. It is important

:44:43.:44:50.

that I meet the Prime Minister, the Chancellor and members of the

:44:51.:44:54.

government, whether it is Liam Fox, David Davis, Boris Johnson, Philip

:44:55.:44:58.

Hammond, the Prime Minister. And you hope to get something out of this

:44:59.:45:02.

meeting that you can tell Londoners about? I hope so. When a new

:45:03.:45:06.

government was formed in August, you will remember that the concern we

:45:07.:45:09.

had was that the door would be shut to any further devolution to London.

:45:10.:45:13.

The good news is that the door is still a jar. We have had the first

:45:14.:45:19.

steps towards a major devolution package for London. What has not

:45:20.:45:21.

happened is that the government has sacrificed London's prosperity for

:45:22.:45:25.

the rest of the country. I am a firm believer in London doing well, but

:45:26.:45:29.

also the rest of the country doing well. Some people did not feel like

:45:30.:45:35.

the focus was on London. The focus might be shifting away. Do you

:45:36.:45:38.

accept that that might be the case and for political reasons, the

:45:39.:45:39.

government may want to do that? It's definitely been the perception

:45:40.:45:53.

among experts. I think we have made huge progress, and councils from all

:45:54.:45:58.

sides deserve credit. MPs deserve credit. If you care about the

:45:59.:46:04.

northern Powerhouse, about Scotland and Wales, you have got to make sure

:46:05.:46:10.

London does well. If you compare London to Wales, Scotland and

:46:11.:46:13.

Northern Ireland, those three countries combined have fewer people

:46:14.:46:18.

than London and yet we have less say over our destiny. Is Jeremy Corbyn

:46:19.:46:25.

making that case together? Team London, MPs from all sides, from the

:46:26.:46:30.

Lib Dems, Conservatives and Labour as well, and the councils under

:46:31.:46:40.

close leadership, businesses as well, team London has got to

:46:41.:46:43.

persuade the Government that it is in the interests of the country to

:46:44.:46:50.

have more say over our destiny. How many times have you met Jeremy

:46:51.:46:55.

Corbyn is you became mayor? We have met a couple of times, we are due to

:46:56.:47:04.

meet shortly as well. My job as the mayor is different, I have to make

:47:05.:47:09.

sure I am a champion and fight for what I think is the greatest city in

:47:10.:47:12.

the world. But he would be seen as an asset to you in trying to make

:47:13.:47:17.

this case to secure London's economic future post Brexit. Of

:47:18.:47:21.

course, Jeremy is a London MP but also the leader of the Labour Party.

:47:22.:47:30.

It is important I speak to politicians of all sides, of course

:47:31.:47:36.

that includes my side as well. You say you have held more before 2

:47:37.:47:41.

billion for housing, are you going to build those 90,000 homes, 50,000

:47:42.:47:47.

affordable homes every year? We are going to make a start, it will be a

:47:48.:47:52.

hard slog, and marathon, not a sprint. We are getting a team of

:47:53.:47:58.

experts, housing associations, developers and experts, working on

:47:59.:48:03.

viability. We are recruiting for viability experts in City Hall. It

:48:04.:48:07.

is crucial we start building homes that are genuinely affordable for

:48:08.:48:10.

Londoners, including the relaxation from the Government that I welcome

:48:11.:48:16.

in saying firstly they are obsessed now by these homes costing up to

:48:17.:48:22.

?450 million, they agree they are not necessarily affordable for

:48:23.:48:29.

Londoners. We have got to make sure the right source of homes are built

:48:30.:48:34.

for Londoners. We heard from Shelter that you have vowed that 50% of the

:48:35.:48:39.

homes you deliver our affordable, here you have the money the

:48:40.:48:43.

Government has given you specifically to build those homes

:48:44.:48:47.

each year so presumably you can fully sign up to that. The

:48:48.:48:54.

Government and I have come up with a deal that by 2021 we will build

:48:55.:49:00.

90,000 homes and I intend to do that. Any more than that though, is

:49:01.:49:06.

that it? This is the crucial point, we mustn't allow this to be the

:49:07.:49:11.

height of our aspiration. Last year the fewest number of affordable

:49:12.:49:13.

homes built under the previous mayor, roughly speaking 5000. Look

:49:14.:49:20.

at the pipe line of homes coming through, only 30% of homes being

:49:21.:49:24.

given permission to be built, it takes a couple of years from that

:49:25.:49:29.

permission to being built, so we have a crisis here. There are

:49:30.:49:33.

complex and challenging issues and I'm determined to get on top of

:49:34.:49:35.

them. OK. But what can we glean so far

:49:36.:49:37.

about this mayoralty? Dan Freedman's been scaling

:49:38.:49:40.

the heights of the 02 building, or the Dome, as some of us

:49:41.:49:43.

still like to call it, Climbing to the summit of London's

:49:44.:49:46.

political scene has been a hard slog for Sadiq Khan,

:49:47.:49:50.

who is famously from humble At times too, no doubt,

:49:51.:49:52.

it's been a lonely journey. Now he's reached the summit,

:49:53.:50:00.

no time to look around and observe the view,

:50:01.:50:03.

as nice as it may be. He made a lot of promises to

:50:04.:50:05.

Londoners to get him into City Hall. Now he's there, six months in,

:50:06.:50:09.

has he delivered on His big four pledges

:50:10.:50:11.

were on housing, transport, So as we reach the end

:50:12.:50:15.

of term, how has he done? His housing policy promise

:50:16.:50:21.

was to ensure that 50% of new homes The mayor needs to deliver this

:50:22.:50:24.

target, because we are talking about over half of Londoners not

:50:25.:50:30.

being able to afford their rent, 88,000 children this

:50:31.:50:33.

Christmas being homeless. There are areas where we think

:50:34.:50:38.

the mayor could be bolder. And he will need to be

:50:39.:50:41.

if he is to meet his ambitious So we would be looking

:50:42.:50:44.

at a bit more flexibility Perhaps the most eye-catching

:50:45.:50:48.

promise, which he has already implemented,

:50:49.:50:54.

was a pledge to freeze TfL transport and introduce a one-hour bus

:50:55.:50:56.

hopper ticket, meaning, in the mayor's words,

:50:57.:51:01.

"Londoners will not pay a penny more The so-called fares freeze

:51:02.:51:04.

is nothing of the sort. Over 1 million people

:51:05.:51:09.

will not benefit from it. He said Londoners would not pay

:51:10.:51:12.

a penny more in fares in 2020, He is now hiding behind the fact

:51:13.:51:15.

that as the chairman of TfL, he can only set TfL fares,

:51:16.:51:22.

which is true, but he didn't make that distinction once

:51:23.:51:26.

in a six-month mayoral campaign. And this wasn't a backroom policy,

:51:27.:51:28.

it was the marquee policy for the campaign, and he never

:51:29.:51:32.

made that distinction. On crime, his promise to make London

:51:33.:51:35.

safer and tackle knife crime flies in the face of 11 fatal teenage

:51:36.:51:38.

stabbings this year so far. He definitely understands the issues

:51:39.:51:42.

of knife crime in London and understands how

:51:43.:51:45.

they affect young Londoners Where I think we could see some

:51:46.:51:46.

improvement is in terms of action. This has been a tragic year

:51:47.:51:57.

for Londoners in terms And finally on pollution,

:51:58.:52:00.

the mayor has promised to restore London's air quality to legal

:52:01.:52:09.

and safe levels. There is no sign of that

:52:10.:52:14.

being achieved before But to give him his due,

:52:15.:52:16.

the mayor has got off to a good start, but I think he's just

:52:17.:52:22.

realising the scale of the problem that Boris left behind him,

:52:23.:52:25.

which is three times the legal limit in Putney High Street

:52:26.:52:28.

and Brixton Road. Diesel vehicles are responsible

:52:29.:52:33.

for over 90% of the most There is only one thing

:52:34.:52:35.

which will make London comply with these standards,

:52:36.:52:41.

and that is to ban diesel vehicles Sadiq is proposing to issue them

:52:42.:52:43.

with a modest charge That is not good enough

:52:44.:52:50.

in his first term. Sadiq is good on incentivising

:52:51.:52:58.

affordable housing, but we would like to see more

:52:59.:53:00.

on direct action to build homes. Mayor Khan, for your first

:53:01.:53:03.

six months in charge, Mayor Khan, I know you understand

:53:04.:53:08.

the issues involved in youth violence and I know that you care,

:53:09.:53:14.

but we need to see action now to stop more young people

:53:15.:53:17.

being murdered. Sadiq, you've got off

:53:18.:53:19.

to a good start, but please So not bad, but could do better

:53:20.:53:24.

seems to be the verdict Sadiq Khan has only been

:53:25.:53:31.

in the job six months. He has three and a half

:53:32.:53:40.

years left at City Hall, plenty of time to make his mark,

:53:41.:53:43.

and plenty to build on too. Is that fair? Yes, we have a big job

:53:44.:54:10.

to do. All of the points made by the experts were good point. As for the

:54:11.:54:19.

Tory chap... ! Let's look at the one Gareth Baker made because Londoners

:54:20.:54:22.

won't pay a penny more, do you regret phrasing it like that? No, I

:54:23.:54:29.

was quite clear in my manifesto and the BBC came along when I unveiled

:54:30.:54:33.

this massive poster which had a good-looking Labour candidate and

:54:34.:54:37.

above me were the words tear fell fares frozen... It didn't specify,

:54:38.:54:44.

do you feel you should have made the distinction clearly? I was clear,

:54:45.:54:49.

transport for London fares to be frozen. In the last eight years they

:54:50.:54:54.

have gone up by more than 42%, we have the most expensive fares in all

:54:55.:54:58.

of Europe. I have frozen them over the next four years. If I can do it,

:54:59.:55:03.

why can't the Government, and that's why am disappointed by the Autumn

:55:04.:55:07.

Statement. The previous mayor who said it wasn't possible to have a

:55:08.:55:14.

two for one hopper, I have done it, unlimited bus travel within one

:55:15.:55:22.

hour. The previous three mayors promised on the night you, I have

:55:23.:55:28.

got it running. Those people paying on travelcards are going to be

:55:29.:55:31.

paying more every year, do you regret they were given the

:55:32.:55:34.

impression by you they were going to? I understand the Government have

:55:35.:55:42.

not managed to do with train companies what I have done with

:55:43.:55:47.

Transport for London. You never went back to the rail companies when you

:55:48.:56:00.

are asked about it. We have frozen them for the next four years,

:56:01.:56:05.

Transport for London fares. My point to the Conservative is that he

:56:06.:56:09.

should be lobbying his government to say that if the Mayor of London Ken

:56:10.:56:12.

freeze Transport for London fares, how can you does the Government not

:56:13.:56:19.

persuade the private companies, which make a huge amount of profits

:56:20.:56:25.

by the way, to freeze their fares? It is supposed to cost at the moment

:56:26.:56:29.

?640 million, the cost of your fares freeze, now that we know inflation

:56:30.:56:34.

is jumping up so high, it is going much closer to what Transport for

:56:35.:56:37.

London was Saints would lead to it costing much more, 1.9 billion. Do

:56:38.:56:44.

you accept how your estimate will inevitably now be much higher

:56:45.:56:49.

because of inflation? No, we have published the Transport for London

:56:50.:56:52.

commissioner how we are going to pay for the first two years of Transport

:56:53.:56:57.

for London freezes. When the business plan is published shortly,

:56:58.:57:00.

we will be setting out how the freeze will be paid for. And

:57:01.:57:05.

Transport for London was good but floppy. That is why we have brought

:57:06.:57:11.

in efficiencies, to make sure we bid for work overseas and get people to

:57:12.:57:16.

pay for it. To make sure we haven't got people earning huge salaries

:57:17.:57:20.

which are not justifiable, to reduce the number of consultants, but also

:57:21.:57:24.

encourage more people to use public transport. Can I ask about policing.

:57:25.:57:29.

We heard about knife crime, but what you say about the Metropolitan

:57:30.:57:32.

Police after we have had operation Midland which has been the cause of

:57:33.:57:40.

some controversy, we have at the -- we have had the conviction of a

:57:41.:57:45.

paedophile, we have had the report from Her Majesty 's Inspectorate

:57:46.:57:48.

about child protection safeguarding, one of the worst ever produced, is

:57:49.:57:54.

the Met in crisis? I want to start by saying each day we should

:57:55.:57:57.

recognise tens of thousands of police officers go to work and risk

:57:58.:58:01.

their lives to keep's save so one of the first things I did was to order

:58:02.:58:07.

a review into whether we are safe in relation to a terror incident. Can

:58:08.:58:13.

we focus on this whole issue... If you are police officer, you are

:58:14.:58:17.

responsible for also ensuring children are safe, victims are safe,

:58:18.:58:21.

and the other things you talked about. We have gone through a

:58:22.:58:30.

difficult time in relation to be Enriques report, the HMIC report on

:58:31.:58:39.

Friday... Is there a big need to restore confidence here? And how

:58:40.:58:44.

will you do that? That's one of the reasons I've already spoken to the

:58:45.:58:47.

Home Secretary. We've published an action plan to address the

:58:48.:58:54.

inefficiencies identified, addressing the issues recognised by

:58:55.:59:00.

Henriques. The easiest thing for me to do is blame the previous mayor,

:59:01.:59:09.

and forget about it but I have an action plan to address it and that's

:59:10.:59:12.

why it's important the Home Secretary and I appoint a new

:59:13.:59:16.

commissioner, in March hopefully, who will understand the challenges

:59:17.:59:19.

of being the Met Police Commissioner but also recognises what a privilege

:59:20.:59:23.

it is to be the commissioner of the best police service in the world,

:59:24.:59:26.

leading police officers who worked their socks off every day. Air

:59:27.:59:30.

quality, banned diesel cars, that's the answer. Thanks for the B from

:59:31.:59:39.

Simon by the way. I'm going to make sure airing London isn't a killer in

:59:40.:59:51.

-- any more. That is why I have got bold and ambitious plans which are

:59:52.:59:54.

the envy of cities around the world in relation to the ultralow

:59:55.:59:58.

emissions zone, bringing it in in the New Year, widening it. From next

:59:59.:00:04.

year, the most polluting vehicle pay an extra ?10 on the congestion

:00:05.:00:11.

charge. Only buying electric, hybrid or hydrogen buses from 2018 but I

:00:12.:00:15.

cannot do it by myself and the Government needs to help me in

:00:16.:00:19.

relation to a national diesel strategy. We need to make sure the

:00:20.:00:26.

Government does more in relation to the judgment from the court. You

:00:27.:00:32.

have got 30 seconds to say, in one year's time what will have mattered

:00:33.:00:38.

what you have achieved? Progress on building genuinely affordable homes.

:00:39.:00:41.

I'm hoping by next year the budget will be even more generous in

:00:42.:00:46.

relation to devolution. We want more devolution next year, but also

:00:47.:00:50.

Brexit. We have got to make sure Londoners don't lose out when the

:00:51.:00:55.

article 15 noticed this served. We have got to make sure London is

:00:56.:00:59.

open. Thank you. Andrew, back to you.

:01:00.:01:05.

Is Theresa May serious about curbing executive pay?

:01:06.:01:07.

Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's successor as Ukip leader?

:01:08.:01:11.

And can the Lib Dems pull off a by-election upset in Richmond?

:01:12.:01:16.

So,,, on pay talk about the executive of what executives get

:01:17.:01:41.

compared to the average worker in the company, giving shareholders

:01:42.:01:43.

real power to vote down pay rises if they don't like them, which is

:01:44.:01:47.

pretty much what Ed Miliband proposed in the general election in

:01:48.:01:56.

2015. Is she serious about this? She is very serious, and the Tory party

:01:57.:02:00.

probably does owe Ed Miliband an apology for trashing his ideas and

:02:01.:02:03.

2015 and then putting them all up for votes in November 20 16. She is

:02:04.:02:08.

very serious, and this all comes back to her desperate fear that

:02:09.:02:11.

unless capitalism reforms itself and becomes more acceptable to the just

:02:12.:02:18.

about managing or even 78% of the country who are not earning vast

:02:19.:02:21.

wealth at anywhere near the figures you see in the City, serious things

:02:22.:02:26.

will happen and the political sense of trust will implode. She has

:02:27.:02:30.

already been bartered down by her own Cabinet on this. She wanted to

:02:31.:02:34.

go further and make workers on the board mandatory. They have managed

:02:35.:02:41.

to stop that. What will her fallback position be on workers on the board

:02:42.:02:45.

if she is not able to get it into some claw? We would like to have

:02:46.:02:52.

workers on the board, but whatever they do on the board there will have

:02:53.:02:57.

no voting powers on the board. When you look at what was leaked out over

:02:58.:03:01.

the weekend, that we should know the ratio of the top to the average and

:03:02.:03:06.

that shareholders who own the company should determine, in the

:03:07.:03:11.

end, the highest-paid salaries, you kind of think, what could the

:03:12.:03:16.

possible objection be to any of that? Two things. One, I agree with

:03:17.:03:22.

Tom that she is deadly serious about this agenda and it comes under the

:03:23.:03:28.

banner, that sentence in the party conference speech about "It's time

:03:29.:03:31.

to focus on the good that government can do". She is by instinct more of

:03:32.:03:37.

an interventionist than Cameron and Osborne. But she is incredibly

:03:38.:03:41.

cautious, whether it is through the internal constraints of opposition

:03:42.:03:45.

within Cabinet, or her own small C Conservative caution in implementing

:03:46.:03:52.

this stuff. Part of the problem is the practicalities. George Osborne

:03:53.:03:55.

commission will Hutton to do a report which came out with similar

:03:56.:03:58.

proposals, which were never implemented. It is quite hard to

:03:59.:04:03.

enforce. It will antagonise business leaders when she's to woo them again

:04:04.:04:08.

in this Brexit furore. So there are problems with it. And judging by

:04:09.:04:13.

what has happened so far, my guess is that the aim will be genuinely

:04:14.:04:17.

bold and interesting, and the implementation incredibly cautious.

:04:18.:04:20.

Does it matter if she annoys some business leaders? Isn't that part of

:04:21.:04:27.

her brand? Will there be problems on the Tory backbenches with it? I

:04:28.:04:31.

think there will be and I think it does matter at this sensitive time

:04:32.:04:34.

for when we are positioning ourselves as a country and whether

:04:35.:04:40.

we are going to brand ourselves as a great city of business, implementing

:04:41.:04:42.

quite interventionist policies. Any suggestion that the government can

:04:43.:04:47.

control how much the top earners get, I think would be received in a

:04:48.:04:51.

hostile way. What would be wrong with the shareholders, who own the

:04:52.:04:54.

company, determining the pay of the higher hands, the executives?

:04:55.:04:59.

Morally, you can absolutely make that argument but to business

:05:00.:05:02.

leaders, they will not like it. Ultimately, this will not come down

:05:03.:05:08.

to more than a row of beans. There was a huge debate about whether

:05:09.:05:11.

there should be quotas of women on boards. In the end, that never

:05:12.:05:17.

happened. All we get is figures. But quotas of women, for which there is

:05:18.:05:22.

a case and a case against too, that was a government mandate. This is

:05:23.:05:26.

not, this is simply empowering shareholders who own the company to

:05:27.:05:29.

determine the pay of the people they hire. There is a strong moral

:05:30.:05:38.

argument for it. Strong economic argument. But the Tory backbenchers

:05:39.:05:43.

will not like this. The downside is that this is a world where companies

:05:44.:05:46.

are thinking about upping sticks to Europe. No, they say they are

:05:47.:05:50.

thinking of that. Not one has done it yet. Others have made massive

:05:51.:05:58.

investments in this country. But is it not an incentive for those making

:05:59.:06:03.

these threats to actually do it? In Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated

:06:04.:06:10.

by Brussels. It is a vivid way of showing you are addressing the issue

:06:11.:06:14.

of inequality. I think she will go with it, but let's move on to Ukip.

:06:15.:06:23.

I think we will get the result tomorrow. There are the top three

:06:24.:06:27.

candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne Evans and on my right, John Reid

:06:28.:06:33.

Evans. One of them will be the next leader. Who is going to win? It is

:06:34.:06:39.

widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall and is probably the outcome that the

:06:40.:06:43.

Labour Party fears most. Paul Nuttall is a very effective

:06:44.:06:46.

communicator. He is not a household name, far from it, but people will

:06:47.:06:52.

begin to learn more about him and find that he is actually quite a

:06:53.:06:57.

strong leader. Can people Ukip together again after this shambolic

:06:58.:07:03.

period since the referendum? If anyone can, he can. And his brand of

:07:04.:07:09.

working collar, Northern Ukip is the thing that will work for them. Do

:07:10.:07:15.

you think he is the favourite? It would be amazing if he doesn't win.

:07:16.:07:19.

His greatest problem will be getting Nigel Farage off his back. He is

:07:20.:07:24.

going on a speaking tour of North America. A long speaking tour. Ukip

:07:25.:07:31.

won this EU referendum. They had the chance to hoover up these

:07:32.:07:35.

discontented Labour voters in the north, and all he has done is

:07:36.:07:39.

associated with Ukip with Farage. But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip

:07:40.:07:43.

and will be glad to be hands of it. The bigger problem is money. If it

:07:44.:07:49.

is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know the results yet, but he is the

:07:50.:07:54.

favourite, if it is him, I would suggest that that is the result

:07:55.:07:58.

Labour is frightened of most. To be honest, I think they are frightened

:07:59.:08:02.

of Ukip whatever the result. Possibly with good cause. The reason

:08:03.:08:07.

I qualify that is that what you call a shambles over the summer has been

:08:08.:08:11.

something that goes beyond Monty Python in its absurdity and madness.

:08:12.:08:17.

That calls into question whether it can function as a political party

:08:18.:08:23.

when you have what has gone on. The number of leaders itself has been an

:08:24.:08:29.

act of madness. In a context which should be fantastic for them. They

:08:30.:08:34.

have won a referendum. There is a debate about what form Brexit should

:08:35.:08:38.

take, it is a dream for them, and they have gone bonkers. If he can

:08:39.:08:43.

turn it around, I agree that he is a powerful media communicator, and

:08:44.:08:45.

then it is a threat to Labour. But he has got to show that first.

:08:46.:08:51.

Indeed. The by-election in Richmond in south-west London, called by Zac

:08:52.:08:56.

Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it turned out to be a by-election about

:08:57.:09:00.

Heathrow, or has it turned into a by-election, which is what the Lib

:09:01.:09:05.

Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems

:09:06.:09:09.

win, they will turn it into an EU referendum. It seems incredibly

:09:10.:09:13.

close now. The Lib Dems are swamping Richmond. They had 1000 activists

:09:14.:09:18.

there yesterday. That is getting on for 100th of the population of the

:09:19.:09:22.

place! If the Lib Dems don't manage to win on Thursday and don't manage

:09:23.:09:27.

to turn it into an EU referendum despite all their efforts, it will

:09:28.:09:30.

probably be a disaster for the party. What do you hear, Isabel? I

:09:31.:09:39.

hear that the Lib Dems have absolutely swamped the constituency,

:09:40.:09:43.

but this may backfire. I saw a bit of this myself, living in Witney,

:09:44.:09:48.

when the Lib Dems also swamped and people began to get fed up of their

:09:49.:09:54.

aggressive tactics. I understand that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously

:09:55.:09:57.

optimistic that he will pull this one off. Quick stab at the result? I

:09:58.:10:06.

don't know. But we are entering a period when by-elections are

:10:07.:10:11.

acquiring significant again. If the Lib Dems were to make a game, it

:10:12.:10:15.

would breathe life into that near moribund party like nothing else.

:10:16.:10:21.

Similarly, other by-elections in this shapeless political world we

:10:22.:10:26.

are in are going to become significant. We don't know if we are

:10:27.:10:29.

covering it live on Thursday night yet because we have to find at the

:10:30.:10:32.

time they are going to declare. Richmond are quite late in

:10:33.:10:39.

declaring, but if it is in the early hours, that is fine. If it is on

:10:40.:10:44.

breakfast television, they be not. I want to show you this. Michael Gove

:10:45.:10:47.

was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning. In the now notorious

:10:48.:10:53.

comment that I made, I was actually cut off in midstream, as politicians

:10:54.:10:57.

often. The point I made was not that all experts are that is nonsense.

:10:58.:11:02.

Expert engineers, doctors and physicists are not wrong. But there

:11:03.:11:10.

is a subclass of experts, particularly social scientists, who

:11:11.:11:12.

have to reflect on some of the mistakes they have made. And the

:11:13.:11:17.

recession, which was predicted that we would have if we voted to leave,

:11:18.:11:21.

has gone like a puff of smoke. So economic experts, he talks about.

:11:22.:11:27.

The Chancellor has based all of his forward predictions in this Autumn

:11:28.:11:31.

Statement on the economic expert forecasters. The Office for Budget

:11:32.:11:38.

Responsibility has said it is 50-50, which is the toss of a coin. But

:11:39.:11:43.

what was he supposed to do? You would ideally have to have a Budget

:11:44.:11:49.

that had several sets of scenarios, and that is impossible. Crystal ball

:11:50.:11:57.

territory. But you do wonder if governments are right to do so much

:11:58.:12:00.

of their fiscal projections on the basis of forecasts which turn out to

:12:01.:12:05.

be wrong. They have nothing else to go on. The Treasury forecast is to

:12:06.:12:09.

be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast will prove not to be exact. As you

:12:10.:12:14.

say, they admitted that they are navigating through fog at the

:12:15.:12:18.

moment. But he also added that it was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit,

:12:19.:12:22.

even if you accept that these forecasts might be wrong, is causing

:12:23.:12:30.

such a level of uncertainty. He put the figure at 60 billion. That could

:12:31.:12:36.

come to haunt him. He hasn't got a clue. He admitted it. He said,

:12:37.:12:44.

Parliament mandates me to come up with something, so I am going to

:12:45.:12:47.

give you a number. But I wouldn't trust it if I were you, he basically

:12:48.:12:53.

said. I agree with you. The man who borrowed 122 billion more off the

:12:54.:12:56.

back of a coin toss was Philip Hammond. It begs the question, what

:12:57.:12:59.

does that say about the confidence Philip Hammond has in his own

:13:00.:13:03.

government's renegotiation? Not a huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond

:13:04.:13:10.

quoted the OBR figures. He basically said, this is uncertain and it looks

:13:11.:13:14.

bad, and on we go with it. It is a very interesting situation, he said.

:13:15.:13:21.

He was for Remain and he works in a department which regards it as a

:13:22.:13:24.

disaster, whatever everyone else thinks. I have just been told we are

:13:25.:13:31.

covering the by-election. We are part of the constitution.

:13:32.:13:33.

Jo Coburn will have more Daily Politics tomorrow

:13:34.:13:35.

And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday at 11.

:13:36.:13:39.

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:40.:14:13.

to signify the Africans who were here.

:14:14.:14:16.

The story of Henry VIII and his six wives

:14:17.:14:44.

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