Browse content similar to 26/02/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:41. | :00:46. | |
Theresa May still has plenty on her plate, | :00:47. | :00:47. | |
not least a battle over Brexit in the Lords. | :00:48. | :00:49. | |
But after Thursday's by-election win in Copeland, | :00:50. | :00:51. | |
the Prime Minister looks stronger than ever. | :00:52. | :00:52. | |
Jeremy Corbyn's Labour saw off Ukip in this week's other by-election, | :00:53. | :00:55. | |
but losing to the Tories in a heartland seat leaves the party | :00:56. | :00:58. | |
The leader of Scottish Labour joins me live. | :00:59. | :01:08. | |
You look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Sweden! | :01:09. | :01:13. | |
And Donald Trump may have been mocked for talking about the impact | :01:14. | :01:16. | |
of migration on Sweden, but after riots in Stockholm this | :01:17. | :01:18. | |
week, did the US president have the last laugh? | :01:19. | :01:26. | |
In London, will the rise in council tax in all but four local | :01:27. | :01:31. | |
authorities be enough to alleviate the crisis in social care? | :01:32. | :01:38. | |
And joining me for all of that, three journalists who I'm pleased | :01:39. | :01:41. | |
to say have so far not been banned from the White House. | :01:42. | :01:49. | |
I've tried banning them from this show repeatedly, | :01:50. | :01:53. | |
but somehow they just keep getting past BBC security - it's Sam Coates, | :01:54. | :01:56. | |
We have had two crucial by-elections, the results last | :01:57. | :02:06. | |
Thursday night. It's now Sunday morning, where do they believe | :02:07. | :02:11. | |
British politics? I think it leaves British politics looking as if it | :02:12. | :02:15. | |
may go ahead without Ukip is a strong and robust force. It is | :02:16. | :02:19. | |
difficult to see from where we are now how Ukip rebuilds into a | :02:20. | :02:25. | |
credible vote winning operation. I think it looks unprofessional, the | :02:26. | :02:30. | |
campaign they fought in Stoke was clearly winnable because the margin | :02:31. | :02:34. | |
with which Labour held onto that seat was not an impressive one but | :02:35. | :02:38. | |
they put forward arguably the wrong candidate, it was messy and it's | :02:39. | :02:42. | |
hard to see where they go from here, particularly with the money problems | :02:43. | :02:46. | |
they have and even Nigel Farage saying he's fed up of the party. If | :02:47. | :02:52. | |
Isabel is right, if Ukip is no longer a major factor, you look at | :02:53. | :02:58. | |
the state of Labour and the Lib Dems coming from a long way behind | :02:59. | :03:03. | |
despite their local government by-election successes, Tories never | :03:04. | :03:08. | |
more dominant. I think Theresa May is in a fascinating situation. She's | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
the most powerful Prime Minister of modern times for now because she | :03:13. | :03:18. | |
faces no confident, formidable opposition. Unlike Margaret Thatcher | :03:19. | :03:22. | |
who in the 1980s, although she won landslides in the end, often looked | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
like she was in trouble. She was inferred quite often in the build-up | :03:28. | :03:33. | |
to the election. David Owen, Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams. And quite | :03:34. | :03:40. | |
often she was worried. At the moment Theresa May faces no formidable UK | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
opposition. However, she is both strong and fragile because her | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
agenda is Brexit, which I still think many have not got to grips | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
with in terms of how complex and training and difficult it will be | :03:54. | :03:58. | |
for her. Thatcher faced no equivalent to Brexit so she is both | :03:59. | :04:04. | |
strong, formidably strong because of the wider UK political context, and | :04:05. | :04:08. | |
very fragile. It is just when you think you have never been more | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
dominant you are actually at the most dangerous, what can possibly go | :04:13. | :04:17. | |
wrong? I think that the money of her MPs they haven't begun to think | :04:18. | :04:20. | |
through the practicalities of Brexit and she does have a working majority | :04:21. | :04:26. | |
of about 17 in the House of Commons so at any point she could be put | :04:27. | :04:29. | |
under pressure from really opposition these days is done by the | :04:30. | :04:33. | |
two wins inside the Conservative Party, either the 15 Europhiles or | :04:34. | :04:40. | |
the bigger group of about 60 Brexiteers who have continued to | :04:41. | :04:42. | |
operate as a united and disciplined force within the Conservative Party | :04:43. | :04:47. | |
to get their agenda on the table. Either of those wings could be | :04:48. | :04:51. | |
disappointed at any point in the next three and a half years and that | :04:52. | :04:55. | |
would put her under pressure. I wouldn't completely rule out Ukip | :04:56. | :05:01. | |
coming back. The reason Ukip lost in Stoke I think it's because at the | :05:02. | :05:05. | |
moment Theresa May is delivering pretty much everything Ukip figures | :05:06. | :05:11. | |
might want to see. We might find the phrase Brexit means Brexit quite | :05:12. | :05:14. | |
anodyne but I think she is convincing people she will press | :05:15. | :05:17. | |
ahead with their agenda and deliver the leave vote that people buy a | :05:18. | :05:24. | |
slim majority voted for. Should that change, should there be talk of | :05:25. | :05:28. | |
transition periods, shut the migration settlement not make people | :05:29. | :05:32. | |
happy, then I think Ukip risks charging back up the centre ground | :05:33. | :05:36. | |
and causing more problems in future. That could be a two year gap in | :05:37. | :05:41. | |
which Ukip would have to survive. As I said, Ukip is on our agenda for | :05:42. | :05:44. | |
today. Thursday was a big night | :05:45. | :05:45. | |
for political obsessives like us, with not one but two | :05:46. | :05:47. | |
significant by-elections, Ellie braved the wind and rain | :05:48. | :05:52. | |
to bring you this report. The clouds had gathered, | :05:53. | :05:59. | |
the winds blew at gale force. Was a change in the air, or just | :06:00. | :06:04. | |
a weather system called Doris? Voters in Stoke-on-Trent | :06:05. | :06:09. | |
were about to find out. It's here, a sports hall | :06:10. | :06:12. | |
on a Thursday night that the country's media reckon | :06:13. | :06:16. | |
is the true eye of the storm. Would Labour suffer a lightning | :06:17. | :06:22. | |
strike to its very heart, or would the Ukip threat proved | :06:23. | :06:24. | |
to be a damp squib? Everybody seems to think the result | :06:25. | :06:27. | |
in Stoke-on-Trent would be close, just as they did 150-odd miles away | :06:28. | :06:30. | |
in Copeland, where the Tories are counting on stealing another | :06:31. | :06:33. | |
Labour heartland seat. Areas of high pressure in both | :06:34. | :06:38. | |
places, and some strange sights. We knew this wasn't a normal | :06:39. | :06:46. | |
by-election, and to prove it there is the rapper, | :06:47. | :06:48. | |
Professor Green. Chart-toppers aside, | :06:49. | :06:50. | |
winner of Stoke-on-Trent hit parade was announced first, | :06:51. | :06:53. | |
where everyone was so excited the candidates didn't even make it | :06:54. | :06:56. | |
onto the stage for the result. And I do hereby declare | :06:57. | :07:00. | |
that the said Gareth Snell Nigel Farage has said that victory | :07:01. | :07:03. | |
here in Stoke-on-Trent But Ukip's newish leader | :07:04. | :07:11. | |
played down the defeat, insisting his party's | :07:12. | :07:17. | |
time would come. Are you going to stand again | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
as an MP or has this No doubt I will stand again, | :07:22. | :07:27. | |
don't worry about that. The politics of hope beat | :07:28. | :07:30. | |
the politics of fear. I think Ukip are the ones this | :07:31. | :07:39. | |
weekend who have got But a few minutes later, | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
it turned out Labour had Harrison, Trudy Lynn, | :07:43. | :07:47. | |
the Conservative Party That was more than 2,000 | :07:48. | :07:51. | |
votes ahead of Labour. What has happened here tonight | :07:52. | :08:02. | |
is a truly historic event. Labour were disappointed, | :08:03. | :08:07. | |
but determined to be optimistic At a point when we're 15 to 18 | :08:08. | :08:08. | |
points behind in the polls... The Conservatives within 2000 votes | :08:09. | :08:20. | |
I think is an incredible The morning after the night | :08:21. | :08:24. | |
before, the losing parties were licking their wounds | :08:25. | :08:29. | |
and their lips over breakfast. For years and years, | :08:30. | :08:33. | |
Ukip was Nigel Farage, That has now changed, | :08:34. | :08:36. | |
that era has gone. It's a new era, it is | :08:37. | :08:43. | |
a second age for us. So that needs to be | :08:44. | :08:45. | |
more fully embedded, it needs to be more defined, | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
you know, and that will We have to continue to improve | :08:51. | :08:53. | |
in seats where we have stood. As we have done here, | :08:54. | :09:02. | |
we've improved on our 2015 result, that's what important, | :09:03. | :09:04. | |
is that we are taking steps Can I be the first to come | :09:05. | :09:07. | |
here today to congratulate you on being elected the new MP | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
for Stoke on Trent Central. Jeremy Corbyn has just arrived | :09:13. | :09:14. | |
in Stoke to welcome his newest MP. Not sure he's going to | :09:15. | :09:18. | |
Copeland later though. Earlier in the day, the Labour | :09:19. | :09:23. | |
leader had made clear he'd considered and discounted some | :09:24. | :09:26. | |
theories about the party's Since you found out that you'd lost | :09:27. | :09:28. | |
a seat to a governing party for the first time | :09:29. | :09:34. | |
since the Falklands War, have you at any point this morning | :09:35. | :09:38. | |
looked in the mirror and asked yourself this question - | :09:39. | :09:41. | |
could the problem actually be me? In the end it was the Conservatives | :09:42. | :09:46. | |
who came out on top. No governing party has made | :09:47. | :09:53. | |
a gain at a by-election With the self-styled people's army | :09:54. | :09:56. | |
of Ukip halted in Stoke, and Labour's wash-out | :09:57. | :10:02. | |
here in Copeland... There's little chance of rain | :10:03. | :10:06. | |
on Theresa May's parade. In the wake of that loss in | :10:07. | :10:18. | |
Copeland, the Scottish Labour Party has been meeting for its spring | :10:19. | :10:21. | |
conference in the Yesterday, deputy leader Tom Watson | :10:22. | :10:23. | |
warned delegates that unless Labour took the by-election defeat | :10:24. | :10:28. | |
seriously, the party's devastation in Scotland could be repeated | :10:29. | :10:30. | |
south of the border. Well, I'm joined now | :10:31. | :10:33. | |
by the leader of Scottish Labour, Even after your party had lost | :10:34. | :10:49. | |
Copeland to the Tories and with Labour now trailing 16 points in the | :10:50. | :10:52. | |
UK polls, you claim to have every faith that Jeremy Corbyn would | :10:53. | :10:57. | |
absolutely win the general election. What evidence can you bring to | :10:58. | :11:05. | |
support that? There is no doubt the result in Copeland was disappointing | :11:06. | :11:07. | |
for the Labour Party and I think it's a collective feeling for | :11:08. | :11:11. | |
everyone within the Labour Party and I want to do what I can to turn | :11:12. | :11:14. | |
around the fortunes of our party. That's what I've committed to do | :11:15. | :11:18. | |
while I have been the Scottish Labour leader. This two years ago we | :11:19. | :11:24. | |
were down the mines so to speak in terms of losing the faith of working | :11:25. | :11:28. | |
class communities across the country, but we listened very hard | :11:29. | :11:32. | |
to the message voters are sending and responded to it. That's what I'm | :11:33. | :11:36. | |
committed to doing in Scotland and that's what Jeremy Corbyn is | :11:37. | :11:42. | |
committed to doing UK wide. The latest polls put Labour at 14% in | :11:43. | :11:48. | |
Scotland, the Tories at ten points ahead of you in Scotland, even | :11:49. | :11:54. | |
Theresa May is more popular than Jeremy Corbyn in Scotland. So I will | :11:55. | :11:59. | |
try again - why are you so sure Jeremy Corbyn could win a general | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
election? What I said when you are talking about Scotland is that I'm | :12:05. | :12:07. | |
the leader of the Scottish Labour Party and I take responsibility for | :12:08. | :12:12. | |
our policies here. Voters said very clearly after the Scottish | :12:13. | :12:14. | |
Parliament election that they didn't have a clear enough sense of what we | :12:15. | :12:18. | |
stood for so I have been advocating a very strong anti-austerity | :12:19. | :12:22. | |
platform, coming up with ideas of how we can oppose the cuts and | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
invest in our future. That is something Jeremy Corbyn also | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
supports but I've also made it clear this weekend that we are opposed to | :12:31. | :12:37. | |
a second independence referendum. I want to bring Scotland back together | :12:38. | :12:40. | |
by focusing on the future and that's why I have been speaking about the | :12:41. | :12:45. | |
federal solution for the UK. I know that Jeremy Corbyn shares that | :12:46. | :12:48. | |
ambition because he is backing the plans for a people's Constitutional | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
Convention. Yes, these are difficult times for the Scottish Labour Party | :12:53. | :13:00. | |
and UK family, but I have a plan in place to turn things around. It will | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
take time though. I'm still not sure why you are so sure the Labour party | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
can win but let me come onto your plan. You want a UK wide | :13:11. | :13:15. | |
Constitutional Convention and that lead to a new Federalist settlement. | :13:16. | :13:21. | |
Is it the policy of the Labour Shadow Cabinet in Westminster to | :13:22. | :13:27. | |
carve England into federal regions? What we support at a UK wide level | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
is the people's constitutional convention. I have been careful to | :13:32. | :13:35. | |
prescribe what I think is in the best interests of Scotland but not | :13:36. | :13:38. | |
to dictate to other parts of the UK what is good for them, that's the | :13:39. | :13:44. | |
point of the people's constitutional convention. You heard Tom Watson say | :13:45. | :13:48. | |
there has to be a UK wide conversation about power, who has it | :13:49. | :13:52. | |
and how it is exercised across England. England hasn't been part of | :13:53. | :13:56. | |
this devolution story over the last 20 years, it is something that | :13:57. | :14:01. | |
happened between Scotland and London or Wales and London. No wonder | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
people in England feel disenfranchised from that. What | :14:07. | :14:08. | |
evidence can you bring to show there is any appetite in England for an | :14:09. | :14:15. | |
English federal solution to England, to carve England into federal | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
regions? Have you spoken to John Prescott about this? He might tell | :14:20. | :14:23. | |
you some of the difficulties. There's not even a debate about that | :14:24. | :14:28. | |
here, Kezia Dugdale, it is fantasy. I speak to John Prescott regularly. | :14:29. | :14:33. | |
What there is a debate about is the idea the world is changing so fast | :14:34. | :14:37. | |
that globalisation is taking jobs away from communities in the | :14:38. | :14:40. | |
north-east, that many working class communities feel left behind, that | :14:41. | :14:45. | |
Westminster feels very far away and the politicians within it feel | :14:46. | :14:48. | |
remote in part of the establishment. People are fed up with power being | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
exercised somewhere else, that's where I think federalism comes in | :14:53. | :14:55. | |
because it's about bringing power closer to people and in many ways | :14:56. | :14:59. | |
it's forced on us because of Brexit. We know the United Kingdom is | :15:00. | :15:08. | |
leaving the European Union so we have to talk about the repatriation | :15:09. | :15:10. | |
of those powers from Brussels to Britain. I want many of those powers | :15:11. | :15:13. | |
to go to the Scottish parliament but where should they go in the English | :15:14. | :15:16. | |
context? It is not as things currently stand the policy of the | :15:17. | :15:20. | |
English Labour Party to carve England into federal regions, | :15:21. | :15:21. | |
correct? It is absolutely the policy of the | :15:22. | :15:30. | |
UK Labour Party to support the people's Constitutional convention | :15:31. | :15:35. | |
to examining these questions. I think it is really important. You're | :15:36. | :15:39. | |
promising the Scottish people a federal solution, and you have not | :15:40. | :15:43. | |
even squared your own party for a federal solution in England. That is | :15:44. | :15:48. | |
not true. The UK Labour Party is united on this. I am going to | :15:49. | :15:52. | |
Cardiff next month to meet with Carwyn Jones and various leaders. | :15:53. | :15:57. | |
United on a federal solution? You know as well as I know it is not | :15:58. | :16:01. | |
united on a federal solution. We will have a conversation about power | :16:02. | :16:05. | |
in this country. It is not united on that | :16:06. | :16:29. | |
issue? This is the direction of travel. It is what you heard | :16:30. | :16:33. | |
yesterday from Sadiq Khan, from Tom Watson, when you hear from people | :16:34. | :16:35. | |
like Nick Forbes who lead Newcastle City Council and Labour's Local | :16:36. | :16:37. | |
Government Association. There is an appetite for talking about power. | :16:38. | :16:39. | |
Talking is one thing. We need to have this conversation across the | :16:40. | :16:42. | |
whole of the United Kingdom, to have a reformed United Kingdom. It is a | :16:43. | :16:44. | |
conversation you're offering Scotland, not the policy. Let's come | :16:45. | :16:46. | |
onto the labour made of London. He was in power for your conference. He | :16:47. | :16:49. | |
wrote in the record yesterday, there is no difference between Scottish | :16:50. | :16:51. | |
nationalism and racism. Would you like this opportunity to distance | :16:52. | :16:55. | |
yourself from that absurd claim? I think that Sadiq Khan was very clear | :16:56. | :16:59. | |
yesterday that he was not accusing the SNP of racism. What he was | :17:00. | :17:04. | |
saying clearly is that nationalism by its very nature divides people | :17:05. | :17:08. | |
and communities. That is what I said in my speech yesterday. I am fed up | :17:09. | :17:13. | |
living in a divided and fractured country and society. Our politics is | :17:14. | :17:17. | |
forcing is constantly to pick sides, whether you're a no, leave a remain, | :17:18. | :17:23. | |
it brings out the worst in our politicians and politics. All the | :17:24. | :17:26. | |
consensus we find in the grey areas is lost. That is why am standing | :17:27. | :17:31. | |
under a banner that together we are stronger. We have to come up with | :17:32. | :17:45. | |
ideas and focus on the future. That is why I agree with Sadiq Khan. He | :17:46. | :17:50. | |
said quite clearly in the Daily Record yesterday, and that the last | :17:51. | :17:52. | |
minute he adapted his speech to your conference yesterday, to try and | :17:53. | :17:55. | |
reduce the impact, that there was no difference between Scottish | :17:56. | :17:57. | |
nationalism and racism. Your colleague, and Sarwar, said that | :17:58. | :18:01. | |
even after he had tried to introduce the caveats, all forms of | :18:02. | :18:05. | |
nationalism rely on creating eyes and them. Let's call it for what it | :18:06. | :18:13. | |
is. So you are implying that the Scottish Nationalists are racist. | :18:14. | :18:17. | |
Would you care to distance yourself from that absurd claim? I utterly | :18:18. | :18:21. | |
refute that that is what Sadiq Khan said. I would never suggest that the | :18:22. | :18:27. | |
SNP are an inherently racist party. That does is a disservice. He did | :18:28. | :18:32. | |
not see it. What he did say, however, is that nationalism is | :18:33. | :18:36. | |
divisive. You know that better than anyone. I see your Twitter account. | :18:37. | :18:41. | |
Regularly your attack for the job you do as a journalist. Politics in | :18:42. | :18:46. | |
Scotland is divided on. I do not want to revisit that independence | :18:47. | :18:52. | |
question again for that reason. As leader of the Labour Party, I want | :18:53. | :18:54. | |
to bring our country back together, appeal to people who voted yes and | :18:55. | :19:01. | |
no. That banner, together we are stronger, that is where the answers | :19:02. | :19:04. | |
lie in defaulters can be found. If in response to the Mayor of London, | :19:05. | :19:09. | |
your colleague says, let's call it out for what it is, what is he | :19:10. | :19:13. | |
referring to if he is not implying that national symbol is racist? -- | :19:14. | :19:21. | |
and that nationalism is racist? He is saying that it leads to divisive | :19:22. | :19:26. | |
politics. The Labour Party has always advocated that together we | :19:27. | :19:29. | |
are stronger. Saying something is divisive is very different from | :19:30. | :19:34. | |
saying something is racist. That is what the Mayor of London said. That | :19:35. | :19:38. | |
is what your colleague was referring to. He did not. You would really | :19:39. | :19:43. | |
struggle to quote that from the Mayor of London. He talked about | :19:44. | :19:48. | |
being divided by race. What does that mean? I think he was very clear | :19:49. | :19:54. | |
that he was talking about divided politics. There is an appetite the | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
length and breadth of the country to end that divisive politics. That is | :19:59. | :20:03. | |
what I stand for, focusing on the future, bringing people back | :20:04. | :20:07. | |
together, concentrating on what the economy might look like in 20 years' | :20:08. | :20:11. | |
time in coming up with ideas to tackle it today. Thank you for | :20:12. | :20:12. | |
joining us. Thursday's win for Labour | :20:13. | :20:14. | |
in Stoke-on-Trent Central gave some relief to Jeremy Corbyn, | :20:15. | :20:16. | |
but for Ukip leader and defeated Stoke candidate Paul Nuttall | :20:17. | :20:18. | |
there were no consolation prizes. I'm joined now by Mr Nuttall's | :20:19. | :20:21. | |
principal political Welcome to the programme. Good | :20:22. | :20:31. | |
morning. How long will Paul Nuttall survivors Ukip leader, days, weeks, | :20:32. | :20:35. | |
months? You are in danger of not seeing the wood for the trees. Ukip | :20:36. | :20:41. | |
was formed in 1993 with the express purpose, much mocked, of getting | :20:42. | :20:45. | |
Britain out of the European Union. Under the brilliant leadership of | :20:46. | :20:49. | |
Nigel Farage, we were crucial in forcing a vacuous Prime Minister to | :20:50. | :20:53. | |
make a referendum promise he did not want to give. With our friends in | :20:54. | :20:59. | |
Fort leave and other organisations. Mac we know that. Get to the answer. | :21:00. | :21:05. | |
We helped to win that referendum. The iteration of Ukip at the moment | :21:06. | :21:10. | |
that we're in, the primary purpose, we are the guard dog of Brexit. | :21:11. | :21:15. | |
Viewed through that prism, the Stoke by-election was a brilliant success. | :21:16. | :21:20. | |
A brilliant success? We had the Tory candidate that had pumped out | :21:21. | :21:25. | |
publicity for Remain, for Cameron Bradley, preaching the gospel of | :21:26. | :21:29. | |
Brexit. We had a Labour candidate and we know what he really felt | :21:30. | :21:34. | |
about Brexit, preaching the Gospel according to Brexit. You lost. Well | :21:35. | :21:36. | |
the by-election was going on, we had the Labour Party in the House of | :21:37. | :21:53. | |
Commons pass the idea of trickling Article 50 by a landslide. Are | :21:54. | :21:55. | |
passionate thing, the thing that 35,000 Ukip members care about the | :21:56. | :21:57. | |
most, it is an extraordinary achievement. I am very proud. What | :21:58. | :22:00. | |
would you have described as victory as? If we could have got Paul | :22:01. | :22:02. | |
Nuttall into the House of Commons, that would have been a fantastic | :22:03. | :22:06. | |
cherry on the top. Losing was an extraordinary achievement? Many Ukip | :22:07. | :22:12. | |
supporters the Stoke was winnable, but Paul Nuttall's campaign was | :22:13. | :22:18. | |
marred by controversy, Tory voters refuse to vote tactically for Ukip | :22:19. | :22:25. | |
to beat Labour, his campaign, Mr Nuttall is to blame for not winning | :22:26. | :22:29. | |
what was a winnable seat? I do not see that at all. This is | :22:30. | :22:33. | |
counterintuitive, but Jeremy Corbyn did do one thing that made it more | :22:34. | :22:38. | |
difficult for us to win. Fantasy. That was to take Labour into a | :22:39. | :22:43. | |
Brexit position formerly. Just over 50 Labour MPs had voted against | :22:44. | :22:49. | |
triggering Article 50. In political terms, we have intimidated the | :22:50. | :22:52. | |
Labour Party into backing Brexit. How much good is it doing you? It | :22:53. | :22:55. | |
comes to the heart of the problem your party faces. | :22:56. | :23:12. | |
You're struggling to win Tory Eurosceptic voters. For the moment, | :23:13. | :23:14. | |
they seem happy with Theresa May. Stoke shows you're not winning | :23:15. | :23:16. | |
Labour Brexit voters either. If you cannot get the solution Tolisso | :23:17. | :23:18. | |
labour, where does your Broad come from? In terms of the by-election, | :23:19. | :23:21. | |
it came very early for Paul. I'm talking about the future. We have a | :23:22. | :23:24. | |
future agenda, and ideological argument with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour | :23:25. | :23:28. | |
Party, which is wedded to the notion of global citizenship and does not | :23:29. | :23:33. | |
recognise the nation state. We know he spent Christmas sitting around | :23:34. | :23:37. | |
campfires with Mexican Marxist dreaming of global government. We | :23:38. | :23:41. | |
believe in the nation state. We believe that the patriotic working | :23:42. | :23:44. | |
class vote will be receptive to that. Your Broad went down by 9% in | :23:45. | :23:50. | |
Cortland. In Copeland we were squeezed. In Stoke, we were unable | :23:51. | :23:55. | |
to squeeze the Tories, who are on a high. Our agenda is that social | :23:56. | :24:01. | |
solidarity is important but we arrange it in this country by nation | :24:02. | :24:05. | |
and community. We want an immigration system that is not only | :24:06. | :24:10. | |
reducing... We know what you want. I do not think people do. You had a | :24:11. | :24:14. | |
whole by-election to tell people and they did not vote for you and. When | :24:15. | :24:19. | |
Nigel Farage said it was fundamental that you were winner in Stoke, he | :24:20. | :24:24. | |
was wrong? Nigel chooses his own words. I would not rewrite them. It | :24:25. | :24:32. | |
would be a massive advantage to Ukip to have a leader in the House of | :24:33. | :24:35. | |
Commons in time to reply to the budget, Prime Minister's questions | :24:36. | :24:38. | |
and all of that. But we have taken the strategic view that we will | :24:39. | :24:41. | |
fight the Labour Party for the working class vote. It is also true | :24:42. | :24:46. | |
that the Conservatives will make a pitch for the working class vote | :24:47. | :24:50. | |
might as well. All three parties have certain advantages and | :24:51. | :24:54. | |
disadvantages. As part of that page, Nigel Farage said that your leader, | :24:55. | :24:59. | |
Paul Nuttall, should have taken a clear, by which I assume he meant | :25:00. | :25:03. | |
tough, line on immigration. Do you agree? He took a tough line on | :25:04. | :25:09. | |
immigration. He developed that idea at our party conference in the | :25:10. | :25:13. | |
spring. Nigel Farage did not think so? Nigel Farage made his speech | :25:14. | :25:17. | |
before Paul Nuttall made his speech. He said this in the aftermath of the | :25:18. | :25:23. | |
result. Once we have freedom to control and Borders, Paul wants to | :25:24. | :25:30. | |
set up an immigration system that includes an aptitude test, do you | :25:31. | :25:33. | |
have skills that the British economy needs, but also, and attitudes test, | :25:34. | :25:39. | |
do you subscribe to core British values such as gender equality and | :25:40. | :25:44. | |
freedom of expression? We will be making these arguments. It is | :25:45. | :25:48. | |
certainly true that Paul's campaign was thrown off course by, | :25:49. | :25:52. | |
particularly something that we knew the Labour Party had been preparing | :25:53. | :25:58. | |
to run, the smear on the untruths, the implications about Hillsborough. | :25:59. | :26:01. | |
If you knew you should have anticipated it. Alan Banks, he helps | :26:02. | :26:07. | |
to bankroll your party, he said that Mr Nuttall needs to toss out the | :26:08. | :26:12. | |
Tory cabal in Europe, by which he means Douglas Carswell, Neil | :26:13. | :26:15. | |
Hamilton. Should they be stripped of their membership? Of course not. As | :26:16. | :26:21. | |
far as I knew, Alan Banks was a member of the Conservative Party | :26:22. | :26:24. | |
formally. I do not know who this Tory cabal is supposed to be. He | :26:25. | :26:29. | |
says that your party is more like a jumble sale than a political party. | :26:30. | :26:33. | |
He says that the party should make him chairman or they will work. What | :26:34. | :26:39. | |
do you see to that? He has made that statement several times over many | :26:40. | :26:42. | |
months, including if you do not throw out your only MP. Douglas | :26:43. | :26:47. | |
Carswell has managed to win twice under Ukip colours. Should Tibi | :26:48. | :26:51. | |
chairman? I think we have an excellent young chairman at the | :26:52. | :26:58. | |
moment. He is doing a good job. The idea that Leave.EU was as smooth | :26:59. | :27:03. | |
running brilliant machine, that does not sit with the facts as I | :27:04. | :27:06. | |
understand them. Suzanne Evans says it would be no great loss for Ukip | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
if Mr Banks walked out, severed his ties and took his money elsewhere. | :27:11. | :27:16. | |
Is she right. I am always happy people who want to give money and | :27:17. | :27:19. | |
support your party want to stay in the party. The best donors donate | :27:20. | :27:24. | |
and do not seek to dictate. If they are experts in certain fields, | :27:25. | :27:28. | |
people should listen to their views but to have a daughter telling the | :27:29. | :27:31. | |
party leader who should be party chairman, that is a nonstarter. You | :27:32. | :27:37. | |
have described your existing party chairman is excellent. He said it | :27:38. | :27:42. | |
could be 20 years before Ukip wins by-election. Is he being too | :27:43. | :27:47. | |
optimistic? There is a general election coming up in the years' | :27:48. | :27:51. | |
time. We will be aiming to win seats in that. Before that, we will be the | :27:52. | :27:56. | |
guard dog for Brexit, to make sure this extraordinary achievement of a | :27:57. | :28:01. | |
little party... You are guard dog without a kennel, you cannot get | :28:02. | :28:05. | |
seat? We're keeping the big establishment parties to do the will | :28:06. | :28:09. | |
of the people. If we achieve nothing else at all, that will be a | :28:10. | :28:13. | |
magnificent achievement. Thank you very much. | :28:14. | :28:14. | |
Sweden isn't somewhere we talk about often | :28:15. | :28:16. | |
should because this week it was pulled into | :28:17. | :28:20. | |
the global spotlight, thanks | :28:21. | :28:20. | |
Last weekend, Mr Trump was mocked for referring to an incident that | :28:21. | :28:30. | |
had occurred last night in Sweden as a result of the country's open | :28:31. | :28:33. | |
Critics were quick to point out that no such incident had occurred | :28:34. | :28:37. | |
and Mr Trump later clarified on Twitter and he was talking | :28:38. | :28:39. | |
about a report he had watched on Fox News. | :28:40. | :28:43. | |
But as if to prove he was onto something, | :28:44. | :28:45. | |
next day a riot broke out in a Stockholm suburb | :28:46. | :28:47. | |
with a large migrant population, following unrest in such areas | :28:48. | :28:50. | |
So what has been Sweden's experience of migration? | :28:51. | :29:00. | |
In 2015, a record 162,000 people claimed asylum there, the second | :29:01. | :29:02. | |
That number dropped to 29,000 in 2016 after the country introduced | :29:03. | :29:09. | |
border restrictions and stopped offering permanent | :29:10. | :29:11. | |
Tensions have risen, along with claims of links to crime, | :29:12. | :29:19. | |
although official statistics do not provide evidence of a refugee driven | :29:20. | :29:21. | |
Nigel Farage defended Mr Trump, claiming this week that migrants | :29:22. | :29:30. | |
have led to a dramatic rise in sexual offences. | :29:31. | :29:33. | |
Although the country does have the highest reported | :29:34. | :29:35. | |
rate of rape in Europe, Swedish authorities say recent rises | :29:36. | :29:37. | |
were due to changes to how rape and sex crimes are recorded. | :29:38. | :29:42. | |
Aside from the issue of crime, Sweden has struggled | :29:43. | :29:45. | |
Levels of inequality between natives and migrants when it comes | :29:46. | :29:50. | |
Unemployment rates are three times higher for foreign-born workers | :29:51. | :29:54. | |
We're joined now by Laila Naraghi, she's a Swedish MP from the | :29:55. | :30:06. | |
governing Social Democratic Party, and by the author and | :30:07. | :30:09. | |
The Swedish political establishment was outraged by Mr Trump's remarks, | :30:10. | :30:24. | |
pointing to a riot that hadn't taken place, then a few nights later | :30:25. | :30:29. | |
serious riots did break out in a largely migrant suburb of Stockholm | :30:30. | :30:33. | |
so he wasn't far out, was he? I think he was far out because he is | :30:34. | :30:38. | |
misleading the public with how he uses these statistics. I think it is | :30:39. | :30:43. | |
important to remember that the violence has decreased in Sweden for | :30:44. | :30:47. | |
the past 20 years and research shows there is no evidence that indicate | :30:48. | :30:50. | |
that immigration leads to crime and so I think it is far out. The social | :30:51. | :30:59. | |
unrest in these different areas is not because of their ethical | :31:00. | :31:03. | |
backgrounds of these people living there but more about social economic | :31:04. | :31:09. | |
reasons. OK, no evidence migrants are responsible for any kind of | :31:10. | :31:13. | |
crime? This story reminds me after what happened to the Charlie Hebdo | :31:14. | :31:21. | |
attacks in Paris when also a Fox News commentator said something that | :31:22. | :31:26. | |
was outlandish about Paris and the Mayor of Paris threatened to sue Fox | :31:27. | :31:30. | |
News, saying you are making our city look bad. It's a bit like that | :31:31. | :31:34. | |
because the truth on this lies between Donald Trump on the Swedish | :31:35. | :31:39. | |
authorities on this. Sweden and Swedish government is very reluctant | :31:40. | :31:45. | |
to admit any downsides of its own migration policy and particularly | :31:46. | :31:48. | |
the migration it hard in 2015 but there are very obvious downsides | :31:49. | :31:54. | |
because Sweden is not a country that needs a non-skilled labour force | :31:55. | :32:00. | |
which doesn't speak Swedish. What was raised as the matter of | :32:01. | :32:05. | |
evidence, what is the evidence? First of all if I can say so the | :32:06. | :32:09. | |
rape statistics in Sweden that have been cited are familiar with the | :32:10. | :32:12. | |
rape statistics across other countries that have seen similar | :32:13. | :32:17. | |
forms of migration. Danish authorities and the Norwegian | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
authorities have recorded a similar thing. It is not done by ethnicity | :32:22. | :32:26. | |
so we don't know. And this is part of the problem. It is again a lot of | :32:27. | :32:32. | |
lies and rumours going about. When it is about for example rape, it is | :32:33. | :32:38. | |
difficult to compare the statistics because in Sweden for example many | :32:39. | :32:43. | |
crimes that in other countries are labelled as bodily harm or assault | :32:44. | :32:48. | |
are in Sweden labelled as rape. Also how it is counted because if a woman | :32:49. | :32:53. | |
goes to the police and reports that her husband or boyfriend has raped | :32:54. | :33:01. | |
her, and done it every night for one year, in Sweden that is counted as | :33:02. | :33:06. | |
365 offences. Something is going wrong, I look at the recent news | :33:07. | :33:11. | |
from Sweden. Six Afghan child refugees committed suicide in the | :33:12. | :33:14. | |
last six months, unemployment among recent migrants now five times | :33:15. | :33:20. | |
higher than among non-migrants. We have seen gang violence in Malmo | :33:21. | :33:26. | |
where a British child was killed by a grenade, rioting in Stockholm. | :33:27. | :33:30. | |
Police in Sweden say there are 53 areas of the country where it is now | :33:31. | :33:34. | |
dangerous to patrol. Something has gone wrong. Let me get back to what | :33:35. | :33:41. | |
I think is the core of this debate if I may and that is the right for | :33:42. | :33:46. | |
people fleeing war and political persecution to seek asylum, that is | :33:47. | :33:50. | |
a human right. In Sweden we don't think we can do everything, but we | :33:51. | :33:55. | |
want to live up to our obligation, every country has an obligation to | :33:56. | :33:59. | |
receive asylum seekers. But you have changed your policy on that because | :34:00. | :34:04. | |
having taken 163,001 year alone, you have then closed your borders, I | :34:05. | :34:08. | |
think very wisely, closed the border which means 10,000 people per day at | :34:09. | :34:14. | |
one point were walking from Denmark in to Malmo, you rightly changed | :34:15. | :34:18. | |
that so he realised whatever ones aspirations in terms of asylum, it | :34:19. | :34:22. | |
sometimes meets reality and Sweden is meeting the reality of this. | :34:23. | :34:29. | |
Let's respond to that. We are not naive, we know we cannot do | :34:30. | :34:32. | |
everything but we want to try to do our share as we think other | :34:33. | :34:36. | |
countries also need to do their share. But let me say that, if you | :34:37. | :34:40. | |
look at what the World Economic Forum is saying about our country | :34:41. | :34:43. | |
they show we are in the top of many rankings, the best country to live | :34:44. | :34:48. | |
in, to age in, to have children in, to start into -- to start | :34:49. | :34:56. | |
enterprise. Why have you not been so good at integrating migrants? The | :34:57. | :35:03. | |
unemployment rate is five times higher among migrants than | :35:04. | :35:07. | |
non-migrants and that's the highest ratio of any country in the EU and | :35:08. | :35:12. | |
the OECD, why have you not been able to integrate the people you have | :35:13. | :35:17. | |
brought in for humanitarian reasons? I'm sure there are things we can do | :35:18. | :35:22. | |
much better of course but if you look for example at the immigration | :35:23. | :35:25. | |
that came in the 90s from the Balkans, they are well integrated | :35:26. | :35:30. | |
and contributing to our society. They are starting enterprises and | :35:31. | :35:32. | |
working in different fields of society, and they help our country. | :35:33. | :35:41. | |
Why have they not got jobs, the migrants that have come in? It takes | :35:42. | :35:47. | |
time. In the 90s we managed it and I'm sure we can do it again. Can I | :35:48. | :35:52. | |
put this into some context, it is clear Sweden has got problems as a | :35:53. | :35:56. | |
result of the number of migrants that come in, whether it is as bad | :35:57. | :36:01. | |
as Mr Trump and others make out is another matter, but perhaps I can | :36:02. | :36:04. | |
put it into context. Malmo, which has been at the centre of many of | :36:05. | :36:09. | |
these migrant problems, its homicide rate is three per hundred thousand. | :36:10. | :36:16. | |
Chicago, 28 per 100,000. It may have problems but they are not huge. No, | :36:17. | :36:22. | |
they are pretty huge and I think they will grow. The Balkan refugees | :36:23. | :36:27. | |
into Sweden in the 90s did bring a lot of problems and Sweden did for | :36:28. | :36:31. | |
the first time see serious ethnic gang rivalries. There was an upsurge | :36:32. | :36:35. | |
in gang-related violence that has gone on since. The situation in | :36:36. | :36:41. | |
Malmo in particular is exaggerated by some people, there's no doubt | :36:42. | :36:45. | |
about that, I have been there many times and it is undoubtedly | :36:46. | :36:48. | |
exaggerated by some, it is also vastly unpersuaded by the Swedish | :36:49. | :36:54. | |
authorities. -- understated. In 2010, one in ten Jews in Malmo | :36:55. | :37:04. | |
registered some form of attack on them. It got so bad that in 2010 | :37:05. | :37:14. | |
people offered to escort Jews... You have had a good say and I have got | :37:15. | :37:18. | |
to be fair here, what do you say to that, Laila Naraghi? There are | :37:19. | :37:24. | |
people trying to frame our country in a certain way to push their own | :37:25. | :37:28. | |
agenda. I regret that President Trump is trying to slander our | :37:29. | :37:35. | |
country. But what about the specific point on Malmo? If you speak to | :37:36. | :37:38. | |
people in Malmo and also to different congregations, they say | :37:39. | :37:43. | |
they are working together with the authorities to improve this. I say | :37:44. | :37:47. | |
again, there are a lot of people trying to spread rumours and lies. | :37:48. | :37:52. | |
Your situation is very like the situation we had in Britain when we | :37:53. | :37:57. | |
have these situations in Rotherham and elsewhere. 1400 girls were raped | :37:58. | :38:01. | |
in Rotherham before police even admitted it was going on. That | :38:02. | :38:06. | |
happened in Britain in the last decade, a similar phenomenon. An | :38:07. | :38:09. | |
upsurge in particularly sexual and other forms of violence and then | :38:10. | :38:13. | |
total denial by an entire political class is now something that is | :38:14. | :38:18. | |
happening in Sweden. I see it in Swedish authorities and the denial | :38:19. | :38:21. | |
that comes up and the desire to laugh and dismiss Trump but he's not | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
answer nothing and that's a painful thing for any society to want to | :38:27. | :38:33. | |
admit to. There are number of Swedes who think the establishment is | :38:34. | :38:40. | |
covering up the true statistics, that you don't break crime down by | :38:41. | :38:45. | |
ethnic crimes, people are suspicious of the centre-left and centre-right | :38:46. | :38:50. | |
parties now in Sweden. There is no denial and no cover-up. This is what | :38:51. | :38:54. | |
I'm speaking about when I say people are trying to frame it in a certain | :38:55. | :38:58. | |
way. The social unrest is not because of the ethnical background | :38:59. | :39:02. | |
of the people living there but rather because of different | :39:03. | :39:06. | |
socioeconomics conditions. There is no research that shows | :39:07. | :39:11. | |
immigration... But you don't do the research into it. Swedish | :39:12. | :39:14. | |
authorities deliberately ensure you cannot carry out such research and | :39:15. | :39:18. | |
after the attacks in Cologne in 2015 it was the first time then that the | :39:19. | :39:22. | |
Swedish authorities and press admitted that similar sexual | :39:23. | :39:26. | |
molestation have been going on for years in Sweden. Is it right to | :39:27. | :39:33. | |
think, given the problem is maybe not as bad as many people make out | :39:34. | :39:38. | |
but clearly problems, given these problems, is the age of mass asylum | :39:39. | :39:43. | |
seeking for Sweden over? You have cut the numbers by 80% coming in | :39:44. | :39:48. | |
last year compared with 2015, is it over while you concentrate on | :39:49. | :39:52. | |
getting right the people that you have there already? We want to do | :39:53. | :39:57. | |
our share, we have done a lot and now we are concentrating of course | :39:58. | :40:00. | |
on integration and making sure people get a job, and also | :40:01. | :40:13. | |
on big welfare investments because it's important to remember that for | :40:14. | :40:17. | |
eight years Sweden were governed by a government that prioritised big | :40:18. | :40:19. | |
tax cuts instead of investment in welfare. It may just not work. I am | :40:20. | :40:22. | |
grateful to you both, we have to leave it there. | :40:23. | :40:24. | |
It's coming up to 11:40am, you're watching the Sunday Politics. | :40:25. | :40:26. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :40:27. | :40:29. | |
the Week Ahead, when we'll be asking if the Government is facing defeat | :40:30. | :40:34. | |
First though, the Sunday Politics where you are. | :40:35. | :40:45. | |
We'll be putting social care under the spotlight this week. | :40:46. | :40:50. | |
All but four of London's councils are putting up their council tax, | :40:51. | :40:54. | |
but are the amounts enough for what the task entails? | :40:55. | :40:58. | |
with me this week, Mike Gapes, Labour MP for Ilford South, | :40:59. | :41:00. | |
and Iain Duncan Smith, Conservative MP for Chingford | :41:01. | :41:03. | |
Let's start not with council tax, but with business rates, | :41:04. | :41:09. | |
going up on average by 11% in London, we're told | :41:10. | :41:11. | |
Though business organisations are claiming thousands of businesses | :41:12. | :41:14. | |
will be pushed to the edge by increases nearer 50%. | :41:15. | :41:17. | |
Iain Duncan Smith, what would you do? | :41:18. | :41:22. | |
Would you do anything more than what has been proposed so far? | :41:23. | :41:25. | |
Well, I think we're going to have to wait for the Budget, | :41:26. | :41:28. | |
but I think the government has got a strong message that there needs | :41:29. | :41:32. | |
to be more done to at least ameliorative the cliff edge, | :41:33. | :41:35. | |
as it were, this sudden leap up of the rates | :41:36. | :41:37. | |
Bear in mind they are based on property prices, | :41:38. | :41:42. | |
particularly in London, where some of the property prices | :41:43. | :41:45. | |
have gone up quite fast in the last few years. | :41:46. | :41:47. | |
It has meant that some of the businesses were not actually | :41:48. | :41:50. | |
The other thing that concerns many of us on both sides of the fence, | :41:51. | :41:56. | |
the high street has been under the cosh, particularly | :41:57. | :41:58. | |
Just ensuring that the small businesses in there do not suffer | :41:59. | :42:04. | |
an immediate problem with business rates is really important. | :42:05. | :42:08. | |
On one side, the Redbridge area, the rise is lower, | :42:09. | :42:13. | |
but in the Waltham Forest area, it is on average around 13%. | :42:14. | :42:17. | |
Mike Gapes, no secret that premises were going to be revalued and that | :42:18. | :42:20. | |
rents have gone up a lot over the last few years. | :42:21. | :42:23. | |
The problem is that the revaluation should have been after five years, | :42:24. | :42:28. | |
but for political reasons, the coalition put it off, | :42:29. | :42:34. | |
And secondly, as Iain says, property prices have gone up, | :42:35. | :42:39. | |
The average in Redbridge is actually going to be 15%, I think. | :42:40. | :42:46. | |
And in Barking and Dagenham, it is about eight. | :42:47. | :42:51. | |
What would you do that was different? | :42:52. | :42:55. | |
You were not going to get the money from these businesses? | :42:56. | :43:01. | |
I support the Federation Of Small Businesses in London who said | :43:02. | :43:04. | |
that there should be a threshold raise so that it is 15,000 | :43:05. | :43:07. | |
At the moment a 12,000 rate applies to the whole of the country. | :43:08. | :43:17. | |
You're nodding your head, you agree with that. | :43:18. | :43:19. | |
You say we have got to wait for the Budget, | :43:20. | :43:21. | |
but you have a chance here to say what you'd like to | :43:22. | :43:24. | |
I have always had concerns about the nature of the structure of | :43:25. | :43:28. | |
It seems too often to be very difficult for the small businesses, | :43:29. | :43:33. | |
In London, we are struggling to keep our high streets alive. | :43:34. | :43:38. | |
My concern is that there needs to be, I am with the federation | :43:39. | :43:41. | |
in the sense that there needs to be some flexibility on this. | :43:42. | :43:44. | |
I'm not quite certain the best way to do this, | :43:45. | :43:46. | |
but it does seem to me, and I hope the Chancellor will take | :43:47. | :43:49. | |
There is definitely a case for relief for London. | :43:50. | :43:52. | |
Not just because I'm a London MP, but I do think London | :43:53. | :43:55. | |
It is the fact that so much money has travelled into London which has | :43:56. | :43:59. | |
forced property prices to rise, rents have gone up, | :44:00. | :44:02. | |
therefore we face a problem beyond our own control. | :44:03. | :44:06. | |
I do not say there are not problems in other cities, | :44:07. | :44:09. | |
but London is peculiar, it is such an international | :44:10. | :44:11. | |
city, it is forced by pressure from outside. | :44:12. | :44:14. | |
Pressure is mounting over the scale of the capital's social | :44:15. | :44:16. | |
care responsibilities, with London Councils, | :44:17. | :44:17. | |
which represents the boroughs, saying the care of thousands | :44:18. | :44:19. | |
of aging and ill Londoners is at risk. | :44:20. | :44:22. | |
It is predicting a funding shortfall of ?600 million at least by 2020. | :44:23. | :44:26. | |
Well, all but four of the capital's authorities are set | :44:27. | :44:32. | |
Dan Freedman's been finding out what difference that might make. | :44:33. | :44:39. | |
It has been an arduous journey for Gerald to be | :44:40. | :44:42. | |
able to move his legs, even like this. | :44:43. | :44:44. | |
In November last year, after struggling for some time | :44:45. | :44:46. | |
with a throat infection, and feeling short of breath, | :44:47. | :44:48. | |
A day later, he was in a coma which lasted for two weeks. | :44:49. | :44:56. | |
Back at home now since Christmas, he is still recovering. | :44:57. | :45:06. | |
Which makes up close to seven weeks in hospital. | :45:07. | :45:09. | |
And that time, especially the time when I was ill, | :45:10. | :45:17. | |
I have lost pretty much, yes, my ability to walk around. | :45:18. | :45:25. | |
Greenwich Council provided free daily care for Gerald at home, | :45:26. | :45:28. | |
including physiotherapy, occupational therapy and help with | :45:29. | :45:29. | |
He has done very well, he was one of our success stories. | :45:30. | :45:34. | |
I went back to the office and I told everyone about how wonderful he had | :45:35. | :45:41. | |
recovered and improved, from no mobility to walking unaided. | :45:42. | :45:49. | |
But to pay for care like this, Greenwich are now putting | :45:50. | :45:51. | |
up their council tax by 4.99%, the maximum amount allowed. | :45:52. | :45:54. | |
The councils generally should be allowed to raise more money, | :45:55. | :45:57. | |
to raise more funding, and to distribute | :45:58. | :46:01. | |
For an average band D taxpayer, it is about an extra pound a week | :46:02. | :46:19. | |
at the moment but the whole problem with this debate is why should it be | :46:20. | :46:23. | |
right that people like Gerald, people from the wartime generation, | :46:24. | :46:26. | |
who have helped create this country, now have to pay for this locally. | :46:27. | :46:29. | |
That has enabled him to get back and have an independent | :46:30. | :46:44. | |
life, but not everybody is in that position. | :46:45. | :46:46. | |
What we see is we know there are people who cannot pay. | :46:47. | :46:49. | |
Across town in Hammersmith, where they are one of only four | :46:50. | :46:52. | |
authorities to freeze council tax this year, their leader says | :46:53. | :46:54. | |
it is all about councils doing more with less. | :46:55. | :46:56. | |
I cannot comment on other councils, but what I can tell you is we have | :46:57. | :47:00. | |
taken an absolute rigourous approach to stripping out waste | :47:01. | :47:02. | |
If you came here three years ago, you would have seen pictures | :47:03. | :47:10. | |
of our predecessors hanging from lampposts with propaganda | :47:11. | :47:12. | |
messages on them, you would have had seven council magazines, | :47:13. | :47:14. | |
talking about how good the local government was. | :47:15. | :47:16. | |
The argument about how to fund social care will no doubt continue. | :47:17. | :47:19. | |
It costs some councils two thirds of their budget | :47:20. | :47:21. | |
and with an ageing population, well, ageing, there are some | :47:22. | :47:26. | |
people who say a truly radical solution is needed. | :47:27. | :47:29. | |
What kind of configuration could we be looking at as a solution? | :47:30. | :47:31. | |
What people have done successfully in other places | :47:32. | :47:36. | |
is group people together, in urban settings, where instead | :47:37. | :47:41. | |
of creating these quasi-villages, you actually use all the amenities | :47:42. | :47:48. | |
in your local town, the hairdresser, the shops, | :47:49. | :47:50. | |
What we are doing is creating that household community | :47:51. | :47:54. | |
Within that community, you can age in place | :47:55. | :47:57. | |
because all the care can be brought to you. | :47:58. | :47:59. | |
He may not feel like it, but Gerald is one of the lucky ones. | :48:00. | :48:02. | |
His social care needs are short-term, he is young, | :48:03. | :48:05. | |
and with a bit of luck he can hopefully return to full health. | :48:06. | :48:08. | |
Most of the people Winnie sees will not be so lucky. | :48:09. | :48:14. | |
As they are living longer, they are living by themselves | :48:15. | :48:16. | |
They have absolutely no-one but someone from the council to go | :48:17. | :48:25. | |
in and help them and if that budget is cut or taken away, | :48:26. | :48:27. | |
Government needs to step up to the plate, really, | :48:28. | :48:31. | |
Care worker Winnie Barrett there, ending Dan's piece. | :48:32. | :48:37. | |
Mike Gapes, how would you fund it, what would you do? | :48:38. | :48:41. | |
There have been attempts in the past, all-party discussions, | :48:42. | :48:50. | |
several years ago, and we need to really deal with this now. | :48:51. | :48:56. | |
The ageing population, in my borough, the over 65s | :48:57. | :49:00. | |
are going to go up by about 30% over a period of ten years. | :49:01. | :49:03. | |
A hypothecated National Insurance, income tax? | :49:04. | :49:07. | |
You could do it through National Insurance, or you could do | :49:08. | :49:15. | |
it by some kind of charge against properties, but that, | :49:16. | :49:18. | |
That was denounced by George Osborne as a death tax, you will remember. | :49:19. | :49:27. | |
Actually, there are people who could be cared for in a very good way, | :49:28. | :49:31. | |
Have we gone far enough in the short term with these | :49:32. | :49:39. | |
I think there is a real problem here which requires | :49:40. | :49:42. | |
For example, the massive scale now of family breakdown puts us | :49:43. | :49:50. | |
A recent study I saw shows that there are fewer people | :49:51. | :49:57. | |
being helped and assisted by families, which in the past might | :49:58. | :50:00. | |
have done a bit more of that, such is the level of family breakdown. | :50:01. | :50:03. | |
Beyond that, you have problems around the way in which the social | :50:04. | :50:06. | |
care in the community is disjointed from that of healthcare. | :50:07. | :50:09. | |
Can we assume on that first point, before we get on to the second, | :50:10. | :50:13. | |
Do you imagine a world where we will reverse that? | :50:14. | :50:17. | |
Over a longer period of time, we have to have a clear look | :50:18. | :50:21. | |
at what is going wrong with family stability in the UK. | :50:22. | :50:24. | |
It is a really big issue, it is right at the top | :50:25. | :50:26. | |
In the short term, the real problem lies between the disconnect | :50:27. | :50:34. | |
between the health services and social care. | :50:35. | :50:36. | |
I see the government has agreed to a further 3% allowance on top | :50:37. | :50:44. | |
They have only just brought that forward? | :50:45. | :50:51. | |
At the end of the day, I suspect that will not be enough. | :50:52. | :50:57. | |
In Oxford, Oxford has brought the healthcare and the social care | :50:58. | :51:00. | |
They have seen a 40% fall in bed blocking. | :51:01. | :51:08. | |
The speed at which we can introduce these reforms in is key? | :51:09. | :51:11. | |
That has to happen, or do you accept that more money has to go in? | :51:12. | :51:15. | |
Ultimately more money does have to go in because we're | :51:16. | :51:17. | |
At Whipps Cross Hospital, they had a CQC report from two years | :51:18. | :51:25. | |
ago which said they were failing and it was a problem | :51:26. | :51:28. | |
because they were part of the London and that was a bit of a disaster. | :51:29. | :51:32. | |
When they have had their recent CQC, one of the issues what was raised | :51:33. | :51:35. | |
in the middle of the first report and again in the second report | :51:36. | :51:38. | |
was that actually they were not discharging patients out | :51:39. | :51:40. | |
of their wards because the administration of that process | :51:41. | :51:43. | |
That was not a problem because they could not get | :51:44. | :51:47. | |
When that is reported, that is reported as a problem | :51:48. | :51:50. | |
Yes, they could have discharged them, but the efficiency of getting | :51:51. | :51:56. | |
that right seemed to be a very low priority. | :51:57. | :51:58. | |
That is one of your local hospitals too, Mike, | :51:59. | :52:00. | |
that is what needs to happen instead of extra taxation? | :52:01. | :52:03. | |
We have got a plan that is coming out at the moment for the so-called | :52:04. | :52:06. | |
stability and transformation plan for the NHS in north-east London. | :52:07. | :52:09. | |
It includes issues of social care, local authorities, | :52:10. | :52:11. | |
as well as hospitals, but the essence of the problem | :52:12. | :52:13. | |
is there is bed blocking, there is delayed discharge. | :52:14. | :52:19. | |
My local authority, Redbridge, is very efficient compared | :52:20. | :52:21. | |
It is lower cost, but we have had ?75 million taken out | :52:22. | :52:29. | |
of our budget over the last six years and we've got to take | :52:30. | :52:32. | |
more than 30 million out in the next five years. | :52:33. | :52:38. | |
Can the local authority tolerate that? | :52:39. | :52:41. | |
I think the key problem here is I would be quite | :52:42. | :52:43. | |
The days are gone when we can have a body that runs social | :52:44. | :52:47. | |
care in the community, and a body that does the healthcare. | :52:48. | :52:50. | |
They should be completely integrated. | :52:51. | :52:52. | |
The money that is saved by the healthcare system, | :52:53. | :52:54. | |
we agree about this, by keeping people out of those beds | :52:55. | :52:57. | |
and moving into communities is so great that it has | :52:58. | :52:59. | |
If you do not have the social workers and the people that | :53:00. | :53:03. | |
can do the assessments, then you have people who are delayed | :53:04. | :53:06. | |
If you have poor GP services, because of reductions, | :53:07. | :53:12. | |
you have people presenting at the accident and emergency, | :53:13. | :53:15. | |
Are you surprised or do you think your government has been | :53:16. | :53:23. | |
caught on the hop by this issue, and whether it has been | :53:24. | :53:26. | |
the publicity around Surrey, wanting to raise its council tax | :53:27. | :53:28. | |
by 15% temporarily or whatever, suddenly there seems to be a lot | :53:29. | :53:31. | |
I do not think this is a sudden issue. | :53:32. | :53:38. | |
I can remember discussing this when Labour was in power. | :53:39. | :53:41. | |
In which case it has been an issue that has been ignored | :53:42. | :53:44. | |
There was an agreement virtually between Norman Lamb and Andy Burnham | :53:45. | :53:47. | |
In terms of the measures and the reforms needed, | :53:48. | :53:55. | |
your government has been slow out of the traps? | :53:56. | :54:00. | |
There is no magic wand you can wave to resolve this. | :54:01. | :54:02. | |
I think the present government is prepared to think very carefully | :54:03. | :54:05. | |
about how best to bring these two areas together. | :54:06. | :54:09. | |
The biggest single effort they could make to make this better | :54:10. | :54:15. | |
is to integrate those services and ensure that from point | :54:16. | :54:17. | |
A to point B is actually as smooth as possible, | :54:18. | :54:22. | |
which allows you to identify where the shortfalls are, | :54:23. | :54:24. | |
A process that may take several years. | :54:25. | :54:27. | |
The Metropolitan Police service has been around for almost 200 years, | :54:28. | :54:32. | |
Now there's a woman in charge, Cressida Dick. | :54:33. | :54:37. | |
What do we need to know about her as she takes | :54:38. | :54:39. | |
The Metropolitan Police recently got a new home, | :54:40. | :54:46. | |
Cressida Dick was this week appointed the new Met Commissioner, | :54:47. | :54:55. | |
the first woman to head the largest police force in the country. | :54:56. | :54:57. | |
It is beyond my wildest dreams, an extraordinary privilege, | :54:58. | :55:00. | |
It is the huge experience she has got within the Met Police service, | :55:01. | :55:10. | |
most recently at the Foreign Office, and also the previous | :55:11. | :55:12. | |
She has experience around security issues, she played a massive role | :55:13. | :55:16. | |
around the Olympics, and celebrating the Diamond Jubilee. | :55:17. | :55:18. | |
One blemish on her record is the death of Jean | :55:19. | :55:20. | |
She was in charge when the Brazilian electrician was mistaken | :55:21. | :55:27. | |
Cressida Dick was cleared of any blame, but the family have | :55:28. | :55:32. | |
In a statement, they had this to stay. | :55:33. | :55:46. | |
Looking ahead, she faces a number of challenges, | :55:47. | :55:53. | |
from London knife crime at a four-year high to the ongoing | :55:54. | :55:56. | |
And she will have to do all of this with fewer officers. | :55:57. | :56:00. | |
I cannot see how we can protect the streets in the same way | :56:01. | :56:03. | |
that we do now with 2,500 to 3,000 less cops. | :56:04. | :56:06. | |
That is a massive number and it will have a massive effect | :56:07. | :56:13. | |
on all the departments within the metropolitan area. | :56:14. | :56:14. | |
With the Met Police facing ?400 million of funding | :56:15. | :56:17. | |
cuts, it is just as well the new commissioner is a qualified | :56:18. | :56:21. | |
accountant who spent the last two years working in Whitehall. | :56:22. | :56:24. | |
Have either of you or both of you met her? | :56:25. | :56:30. | |
I have not met her, but I know Mike has. | :56:31. | :56:32. | |
I met her about two or three years ago. | :56:33. | :56:34. | |
I think she could be a real moderniser in the police in London. | :56:35. | :56:44. | |
It is very important we have got a woman in the most important | :56:45. | :56:47. | |
This is the counterterrorism and the major crime areas that | :56:48. | :56:53. | |
I hope she can do it well, because I really think we need | :56:54. | :57:04. | |
I will be honest with you, I did have slight concerns, | :57:05. | :57:15. | |
when she was appointed, in the sense that I was not sure | :57:16. | :57:17. | |
just how good she would be in operational circumstances but I'm | :57:18. | :57:20. | |
Because you're focusing on what you learned from | :57:21. | :57:24. | |
Not so much the end point of it, but the management of it. | :57:25. | :57:32. | |
We're not going to do the details in the time we've got, | :57:33. | :57:36. | |
I wonder if there is something about that, not just that a woman | :57:37. | :57:41. | |
can rise in this male environment, but to come back from the publicity | :57:42. | :57:44. | |
around something like that, that shooting, it must say | :57:45. | :57:46. | |
I think it is very important that we give her the scope | :57:47. | :57:52. | |
I want to, where possible, cooperate and help. | :57:53. | :58:00. | |
The biggest challenge she faces right now, | :58:01. | :58:03. | |
which the previous commissioner faced, is this whole issue in London | :58:04. | :58:07. | |
of this aggravated street crime, gang warfare that is going on, | :58:08. | :58:09. | |
linked heavily with drug trading, drug addiction. | :58:10. | :58:11. | |
You have got these various national gangs coming in, Somalis moving | :58:12. | :58:15. | |
It is a problem UK wide, not just in London, but dealing | :58:16. | :58:26. | |
with it is not just police operations, councils and local | :58:27. | :58:28. | |
authorities have got to work with the charitable voluntary groups | :58:29. | :58:32. | |
to get the kids out of those gangs, where the police have | :58:33. | :58:35. | |
to go in and decapitate, as they call it, | :58:36. | :58:37. | |
We wrote a report on this at the CSJ. | :58:38. | :58:40. | |
I would love her to make that the priority because the outer | :58:41. | :58:45. | |
Pie Jesu Kamara been a senior partner in a multi-agency approach? | :58:46. | :59:02. | |
We have had a very successful operation in Ilford recently, | :59:03. | :59:06. | |
Local authority and police intelligence were gathered together | :59:07. | :59:11. | |
and a number of very bad people have been taken off the streets. | :59:12. | :59:14. | |
I cannot say more, because there are court cases going on. | :59:15. | :59:17. | |
Nevertheless, as Iain says, to get the evidence, | :59:18. | :59:22. | |
and to make it stack up so that people do not get acquitted, | :59:23. | :59:25. | |
or the case is dismissed, you have really got to spend a lot | :59:26. | :59:28. | |
My fear is that policing, as you commented earlier, | :59:29. | :59:34. | |
has got big financial pressures in London. | :59:35. | :59:37. | |
Outer borough MPs like us often feel, and we will hear | :59:38. | :59:46. | |
from our own police forces, that so much of the attention | :59:47. | :59:49. | |
is Central London, partly because of the terrorism, | :59:50. | :59:52. | |
but everything else, but when the real pressure arrives, | :59:53. | :59:56. | |
people from our communities, the police are dragged down | :59:57. | :59:58. | |
into the centre, and it leaves our communities often quite... | :59:59. | :00:02. | |
They have lots of distractions to deal with. | :00:03. | :00:05. | |
You cannot get guarantees as local MPs? | :00:06. | :00:12. | |
No, my local authority has extra resources from the Mayor for ward | :00:13. | :00:17. | |
-based work. They have lots of | :00:18. | :00:35. | |
distractions to deal with. You cannot get | :00:36. | :00:37. | |
guarantees as local MPs? My local authority has just got | :00:38. | :00:39. | |
extra resources from the mayor The community wants reassurance | :00:40. | :00:41. | |
by seeing, visibly, police officers. Yes, the biggest problem is that | :00:42. | :00:44. | |
people think the outer boroughs has nothing | :00:45. | :00:51. | |
like what is going on in inner London, but areas of my | :00:52. | :00:53. | |
local authority have I take my hat off to them | :00:54. | :00:55. | |
for dealing with them, Not every local authority is locked | :00:56. | :00:59. | |
to the idea of getting rid of gang And now for the rest | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
of the political news in 60 Seconds. Guards on Southern trains walked out | :01:04. | :01:08. | |
on strike again this week Talks between the RMT Union | :01:09. | :01:11. | |
and Southern broke down last week The row centres on Southern's | :01:12. | :01:15. | |
plans to make conductors on board supervisors, | :01:16. | :01:18. | |
giving drivers control The main approach tunnel | :01:19. | :01:20. | |
at Heathrow airport was blocked by protesters objecting to plans | :01:21. | :01:23. | |
for a third runway. Three cars were parked | :01:24. | :01:25. | |
across the road with protesters chaining themselves to one | :01:26. | :01:27. | |
of the vehicles. The tunnel was shut | :01:28. | :01:30. | |
for more than two hours French presidential candidate | :01:31. | :01:32. | |
Emmanuel Macron has said he would like UK banks and workers | :01:33. | :01:38. | |
to relocate to his country following Speaking in Downing Street, | :01:39. | :01:41. | |
the centrist politician called his own country | :01:42. | :01:47. | |
a very attractive space. Mr Macron called for a fair | :01:48. | :01:52. | |
execution of Brexit. Iain Duncan Smith saying | :01:53. | :02:06. | |
during that that you bumped He is going to take all our bankers | :02:07. | :02:08. | |
and set up in Paris. To earn a pound in Paris, | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
to actually hold a pound that you have earned, | :02:13. | :02:17. | |
you have to earn about six pounds, whereas in the UK, to earn a pound, | :02:18. | :02:19. | |
you have to earn about ?2.50. Some of the banks are already | :02:20. | :02:24. | |
indicating they will move. There are moves all the time, | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
but the head of financial services in Germany and the finance minister | :02:28. | :02:30. | |
of Germany said that we need London to be a global success after Brexit, | :02:31. | :02:33. | |
because London is our global marketplace, it is not coming | :02:34. | :02:36. | |
to Frankfurt or Paris, it will go to New York | :02:37. | :02:39. | |
if it leaves anywhere. No Brexit question | :02:40. | :02:44. | |
for you, Mike Gapes. A question about a fellow | :02:45. | :02:46. | |
London Labour MP, Jeremy Corbyn. I am delighted that | :02:47. | :02:48. | |
Gareth Snell was elected. The truth is, Labour should not be | :02:49. | :03:03. | |
losing by-elections under Iain Duncan Smith, were you leader | :03:04. | :03:08. | |
of the Conservative party, or Prime Minister, would you go | :03:09. | :03:15. | |
to the country? Here is the reason, the public | :03:16. | :03:18. | |
is tired of the idea of politicians jumping at the key moment | :03:19. | :03:23. | |
when they think they are ahead. What she has to do is | :03:24. | :03:29. | |
deliver the Brexit point, and after that she can go | :03:30. | :03:32. | |
to the country when she has Welcome back. Article 50, which | :03:33. | :03:54. | |
triggers the beginning of Britain leaving the European Union and start | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
negotiations, is winding its way through the Lords in this coming | :03:59. | :04:04. | |
week. Tarzan has made an intervention, let's just see the | :04:05. | :04:10. | |
headline from the Mail on Sunday. Lord Heseltine, Michael Heseltine, | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
my fightback starts here, he is going to defy Theresa May. I divide | :04:15. | :04:18. | |
one Prime Minister over the poll tax, I'm ready to defy this one in | :04:19. | :04:22. | |
the Lords over Brexit. There we go, that's going to happen this week. We | :04:23. | :04:28. | |
will see how far he gets. I don't think he will get very far, I don't | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
think Loyalist Tory MPs and Brexiteers are quaking in their | :04:34. | :04:37. | |
boots at the prospect of a rebellion led by Michael Heseltine. I sense | :04:38. | :04:41. | |
that many Tory MPs are already moving on to the next question about | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
Brexit, and the discussion over how much it will cost us to come out. | :04:46. | :04:50. | |
The fact they are already debating that suggests to me they feel things | :04:51. | :04:57. | |
will go fairly smoothly in terms of the legislation. When I spoke to the | :04:58. | :05:01. | |
Labour leader in the Lords last week on the daily politics, she said she | :05:02. | :05:05. | |
was going to push hard for the kind of amendments Lord has all-time is | :05:06. | :05:13. | |
talking about and they would bring that back to the Commons. But if the | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
Commons pinged it back to the Lords with the amendments taken out, she | :05:19. | :05:21. | |
made it clear that was the end of it. Is that right? That's about | :05:22. | :05:29. | |
right. This is probably really a large destruction. There will be to | :05:30. | :05:32. | |
micro issues that come up in the Lords, one is on the future of EU | :05:33. | :05:39. | |
nationals, that could be voted on as soon as this Wednesday, and then the | :05:40. | :05:43. | |
main vote in the Lords on a week on Tuesday, when there is this question | :05:44. | :05:47. | |
of what sort of vote will MPs and peers get at the end of the Brexit | :05:48. | :05:52. | |
process and that is what has all-time is talking about. He wants | :05:53. | :05:55. | |
to make sure there are guarantees in place. The kind of things peers are | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
looking for are pretty moderate and the Government have hinted they | :06:02. | :06:03. | |
could deliver on both of them already. But they are still not | :06:04. | :06:09. | |
prepared... Amber Rudd said they were not prepared... They may say | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
yes we are going to do that but they won't allow whatever that is to be | :06:15. | :06:20. | |
enshrined in the legislation. The question is whether we think this is | :06:21. | :06:24. | |
dancing on the head of a pin. The Government have already promised | :06:25. | :06:27. | |
something in the House of Commons, but will they write it down, I don't | :06:28. | :06:30. | |
think that's the biggest problem in the world. In a sense this is a | :06:31. | :06:34. | |
great magicians trick by Theresa May because it is not the most important | :06:35. | :06:41. | |
thing. The most important thing in Brexit is going on in those | :06:42. | :06:44. | |
committees behind closed doors when they are trying to work out what the | :06:45. | :06:47. | |
next migration system is for Britain and there are some interesting, | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
indeed toxic proposals, but at the moment Downing Street are happy to | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
let us talk about the constitutional propriety of what MPs are doing over | :06:57. | :07:02. | |
the next eight days. It seems to me the irony is that if we had a second | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
chamber that can claim some kind of democratic legitimacy, which the one | :07:07. | :07:11. | |
we have cannot, it would be able to cause the Government more trouble on | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
this, it would be more robust. Absolutely. I saw the interview we | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
did with the Labour Leader of the Lords, they are very conscious, of | :07:20. | :07:28. | |
the fact they are not elected and have limited powers. She was clear | :07:29. | :07:32. | |
to you they would not impede the timetable for triggering Article 50 | :07:33. | :07:36. | |
so we might get a bit of theatre, Michael Heseltine might deliver a | :07:37. | :07:41. | |
brilliant speech. It is interesting that Euroscepticism gun under | :07:42. | :07:46. | |
Margaret Thatcher in the Tory party but two offer senior ministers Ken | :07:47. | :07:52. | |
Clarke and Michael Heseltine are the most prominent opponents now but | :07:53. | :07:55. | |
they will change nothing at this point. She will have the space to | :07:56. | :07:59. | |
trigger Article 50 within her timetable. Let's move on. Let me | :08:00. | :08:04. | |
show you a picture tweeted by Nigel Farage. | :08:05. | :08:10. | |
That is Nigel Farage and a small group of people having dinner, and | :08:11. | :08:17. | |
within that small group of people is the president of the United States, | :08:18. | :08:21. | |
and it was taken in the last couple of days. This would suggest that if | :08:22. | :08:27. | |
he can command that amount of the President's time in a small group of | :08:28. | :08:31. | |
people, then he's actually rather close to the president. Make no | :08:32. | :08:37. | |
mistake about it, Nigel Farage is now to and fro Washington more | :08:38. | :08:40. | |
regularly than perhaps he is here. Hopefully that LBC programme is | :08:41. | :08:47. | |
recorded over in the state. He's not only close to the president but to a | :08:48. | :08:53. | |
series of people within the administration. That relationship | :08:54. | :08:56. | |
there is a remarkable one and one to keep an eye on. Will the main | :08:57. | :09:01. | |
government be tempted to tap into that relationship at any time or is | :09:02. | :09:07. | |
it just seething with anger? You can feel a ripple of discontentment over | :09:08. | :09:14. | |
this. We are in the middle of negotiating the state visit and the | :09:15. | :09:18. | |
sort of pomp and circumstance and what kind of greeting Britain should | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
give Donald Trump when he comes over later in the year. There is a great | :09:23. | :09:26. | |
deal of neurotic thought going into what that should look like, but one | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
of the most interesting things about our relationship with Donald Trump | :09:31. | :09:33. | |
is that there is a nervousness among some Cabinet ministers that we are | :09:34. | :09:37. | |
being seen to go too far, too fast with the prospect of a trade deal. | :09:38. | :09:42. | |
Even amongst some Brexiteer cabinet ministers, they worry we won't get a | :09:43. | :09:46. | |
very good trade deal with the US and we are tolerably placing a lot of | :09:47. | :09:49. | |
stalled by it. When we see the kind of deal they want to pitch with us | :09:50. | :09:54. | |
there might be some pulling back and that could be an awkward moment in | :09:55. | :10:02. | |
terms of our relationship, and no doubt Nigel at that term -- at that | :10:03. | :10:05. | |
point will accuse the UK of doing the dirty on Donald Trump. If there | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
was a deal, would they get it through the House of Commons? Nigel | :10:12. | :10:18. | |
Farage is having dinner with the president, not bad as a kind of | :10:19. | :10:23. | |
lifestyle but he's politically rootless, he won't be an MEP much | :10:24. | :10:27. | |
longer so if you look at where is his political base to build on this | :10:28. | :10:31. | |
great time he's having, there is one. Given that there is one I think | :10:32. | :10:35. | |
he's just having a great time and it isn't much more significant than | :10:36. | :10:40. | |
that. No? There's a lot to be said for having a great time. You are | :10:41. | :10:51. | |
having a great time. Let's just look, because of the dominance of | :10:52. | :10:57. | |
the Government we kind of it nor there are problems piling up, only | :10:58. | :11:03. | |
what, ten days with the Budget to go, piling up for Mrs May and her | :11:04. | :11:08. | |
government. The business rates which has alarmed a lot of Tories, this | :11:09. | :11:13. | |
disability cuts which are really a serious problem for the Government, | :11:14. | :11:18. | |
and the desperate need for more money for social care. There are | :11:19. | :11:22. | |
other issues, there are problems there and they involve spending | :11:23. | :11:26. | |
money. Absolutely and some people argue Theresa May has only one | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
Monday and that is to deliver Brexit but it is impossible as a Prime | :11:31. | :11:35. | |
Minister to ignore everything else. And she doesn't want to either. The | :11:36. | :11:41. | |
bubbling issue of social care and the NHS is the biggest single | :11:42. | :11:44. | |
problem for her in the weeks and months ahead, she has got to come up | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
with something. And Mr Hammond will have to loosen his belt a little | :11:49. | :11:53. | |
bit. I think he will in relation to the NHS, he didn't mention it in the | :11:54. | :11:57. | |
Autumn Statement, which was remarkable, and he cannot get away | :11:58. | :12:01. | |
with not mentioning it this time. If he mentions it, it has to be in a | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
positive context in some way or another and it is one example of | :12:06. | :12:09. | |
many. She is both strong because she is so far ahead in the opinion | :12:10. | :12:14. | |
polls, but this in tray is one of the most daunting a Prime Minister | :12:15. | :12:18. | |
has faced in recent times I think. Here is what will happen on Budget | :12:19. | :12:24. | |
day, money will be more money, magically found down the back of the | :12:25. | :12:31. | |
Treasury sofa. The projections are that he has wiggle room of about 12 | :12:32. | :12:35. | |
billion. But look at the bills, rebels involved in business rates | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
suggest the Chancellor will have to throw up ?2 billion at that problem. | :12:40. | :12:45. | |
3.7 billion is the potential cost of this judgment about disability | :12:46. | :12:48. | |
benefits. The Government will try to find different ways of satisfying it | :12:49. | :12:53. | |
but who knows. It will not popular. I'm not sure they will throw money | :12:54. | :12:58. | |
at the NHS, they want an interim settlement on social care which will | :12:59. | :13:00. | |
alleviate pressure on the NHS but they feel... That's another couple | :13:01. | :13:07. | |
of billion by the way. They feel in the Treasury that the NHS has not | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
delivered on what Simon Stevens promised them. But here is the | :13:12. | :13:18. | |
bigger problem for Philip Hammond, he has two This year and he thinks | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
the second one in the autumn is more important because that is when | :13:23. | :13:25. | |
people will feel the cost living squeeze. | :13:26. | :13:27. | |
The Daily Politics is back at noon on BBC Two tomorrow. | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
We'll be back here at the same time next week. | :13:32. | :13:33. | |
Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics. | :13:34. | :13:40. |