16/02/2014 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria

Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be

extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent

Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the

European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant

debate. It's our top story. He has debate. It's our top story. He has

the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow

joined us for the Sunday interview. Another

close to expectant mums. And cupid's arrow hits Carlisle as the Cumbrian

close to expectant mums. And cupid's look at his decisions and priorities

with the help of his chief of staff. With me, the best and brightest

political panel in the business The twits will be as incessant and

probably as welcome as the recent rain. A significant new development

in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the

President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel

Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that

an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union

as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28

member states and that would be in his words, extremely difficult, if

not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out

of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very

important, the application to the union would have to be approved by

all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the

secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your

democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely

difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have

a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that

Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is

a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be

externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't

want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive

into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex

Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to

the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with

England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last

week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically

get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that

they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get

the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more

significant than the application? The reference to Spain is

interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active

area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other

countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no

reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by

letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it

does get in, it solves the currency problem because all new members have

to accept the Euro? At the moment, the SNP are rejecting that quite

strongly. What an interesting intervention today. However, I know

that those arguing that Scotland should stay in the union are worried

that the polls are tightening. A lot of these interventions, parents care

arguments, they don't look like they are convincing the Scottish people.

We haven't had any polls yet? We haven't, but we have since the

currency debate was reignited in the last few weeks and it shows the

polls tightening slightly. I think Alistair Darling's campaign would

prefer to be much further ahead at the stage. They are worried that

these technical commandments are not having much sway. Are the polls

tightening slightly? They could be within the statistical margin for

error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of

reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in

the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a

member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both

of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already

told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is

playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister,

John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the

constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was

also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A

second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last

minute. The leader of the biggest

underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members

into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the

national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership

has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when

union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has

seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to

close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the

beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100

million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has

threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes.

Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview.

Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the

moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of

all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it

quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices

would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone

wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep

them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not

the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking

offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a

booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less

than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness.

Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV

that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time

people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed.

People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit

behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent,

however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they

were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out

of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket

offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind

and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the

underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They

are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers?

Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got

some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a

whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in

decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million

people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per

day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We

are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more

people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming

home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people

drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of

the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I

want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I

think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because

you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what

that has got to do with it. Let s get every editor of the daily

newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to

know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that...

You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and

follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were

taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they

go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on

holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They

sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be

?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never

mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what

you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning I

see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next

four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot

of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do

anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be

doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not

strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good

terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is all

of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they

have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to

do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for

your members and why union membership has been rising, people

want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost

for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone

believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are

going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on

the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at

some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The

starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary

for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a

teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had

to live through 24 strikes in 1 years to push up your members

wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by

conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the

teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the

end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up

the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are

fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all

support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars

around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members

pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if

we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who

travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care Of

course they care, I've said before that I apologise to the troubling

public for the dispute that took place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It

two to tango. If the boy never imposed terms and conditions on us

against our will... But you've got great terms and conditions! But it's

a constant battle, they are trying to change them. Drivers are having

their pay going up to ?50,000. You said they are making it worse, it is

going up. They are trying to make things worse for workers. You said

at the start of the interview that the tube strike cost ?100 million in

two days. It means that when members go to work for two days it is worth

?100 million. That demonstrates what they are worth. Only a fighting

trade union can defend workers out there. Your members should enjoy

what you have got for them, because it's not going to last, is it?

Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx

says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and

the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of

it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out

for new technology. But for who To put people on the dole, so they

can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so

everybody benefits, lower fares better service and better terms and

conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the

underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute

technology for Labour. And that s what it's going to do, it is closing

the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless

trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this

because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming

in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it

is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it

breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be

stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who

cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality

is simple, it is a nonsense. It s not going to happen because it is a

Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless

but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small

section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me

about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over

their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created

all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many

people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the

stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and

greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better

service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the

ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single

ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes

of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long

transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket.

The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is

that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people

having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use

the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the

offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I

struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages.

They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is

press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being

and what makes the London Underground so precious is that

people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out

on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the

concourse and they will have machines. The fact is that London

Underground did a risk assessment of closing down their booking offices

and it is clear that if you are disabled, if you are partially

sighted, London Underground becomes more dangerous. You are posing the

closing of ticket offices, opposing driverless trains, when you opposed

to the Oyster card when it came in? No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal

with it. It is not the only way They should supplement the staff and

the job. If more people used the London Underground system, you want

more staff to deal with them. Let's look at your mandate to strike. Of

your members who work on the Tube, only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30%

voted for the strike, so 70% actually didn't vote to strike of

your members, but the strike went ahead. Isn't it right to have a

higher threshold before you can cause this disruption? It would be

lovely if everyone voted but the Tories took that away. We used to

have ballots at the workplace. What I'm trying to say to you is that we

used to have a ballot box at the workplace and the turnouts were

higher. The Tories believe that if they can have a secret ballot where

ballot papers went to people's home addresses, where they could be

persuaded by the bosses, votes would be different. Let's go back to the

workplace ballot because you get a bigger turnout. Will the RMT

re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I have no intention to. We got

expelled from the Labour Party. But you will give some money to the

Labour councils? Those that support our basic policies get money, we

don't give money directly to MPs, we give it to constituencies. Are you

going to stand for re-election in 2016? I might do, I might not. You

haven't decided yet? No, but more than likely I will do. And will you

stand again as an anti-EU candidate? Yes, I am standing in London, and

right across, completely different to UKIP's policies. They are

anti-European, they believe all of the faults of Europe are down to the

immigrants. We are anti-European Union. If London Underground is as

badly run as you think, why don t you run for mayor? That is down the

road, it has not come up yet. I m not ruling anything out. I'm not

ruling out getting your job on the Sunday Politics. You have got to

retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to

renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have

your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if

you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later

in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel

Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish

Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now

heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I

think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He

compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member,

Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to

reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are

compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been

part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work

about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership

of the European Union and that position has now been explained and

debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are

talking about the president of the European commission and we have

spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning,

it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that

Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they

will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it

if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state

of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish

membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if

there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an

independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue.

That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no

stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union

because it is important that Scotland is already part of the

European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union

and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation

in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that

David Cameron wants to have in 017. It has not been a great week for

you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has

been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel

Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it

has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the

Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within

Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is

Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect

comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence

and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves

your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We

have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be

to establish the currency union You would have to adopt the euro. That's

not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for

two years before you can apply for membership and an independent

Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or

the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our

arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests

of Scotland and the UK. Thank you for joining us this morning.

This week's least surprising news was that Labour won the safe seat of

Wythenshawe and Sale East in a by-election, following the death of

the MP Paul Goggins. With the result so predictable, all eyes were on

whether this would be the sixth time this parliament that UKIP would come

second. And whether they'd chip away at Labour's vote, not just the

Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed up all night to find out what it all

meant. Forget the hype. Forget the theorising. And yes - everyone has a

theory. UKIP are learning from us. What have they picked up from you?

To be silly. Thanks to this week's by-election we've got some hard

evidence in paper form that helps answer the question: How are UKIP

doing? Turns out the answer is well, but not well enough to beat Labour.

I'm therefore claim -- declare that Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have

come second and increased their share of the vote quite

significantly. But their performance isn't as good as their performances

in some of the other by-elections this parliament. Just don't suggest

to them that their bandwagon has ground to a halt. A week ago you'd

told me you were going to win, what happened? No, I didn't, I said I

wanted to win. My mistake. How are you feeling? It is a Labour

stronghold, we always knew it was going to be a fight. Labour were

running scared of letting us present our arguments. UKIP's campaign in

Wythenshawe didn't point to the right but to the left, with leaflets

that branded Labour as a party of millionaires who didn't care about

the working class. It wasn't a winning strategy but it did help

them beat the Tories who focused on dog mess and potholes instead.

Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford from Manchester Uni thinks they

could be on the right track. He s analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP

voters for a new book, which could confound the received wisdom about

the party. The common media image of the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy

faced golf club and -- member from the south-east of the UK and many

UKIP activists do resemble that stereotype to some extent, they do

pick up a lot of activists from the Conservative party, but UKIP voters

are older, more working class, more likely to live in Northern, urban

areas, and they are much more anti-system than anti-EU. And

they're precisely the voters that the Tory MP David Mowat needs if

he's to hold on to his narrow majority in the constituency just

down the road. Do you have a UKIP strategy in your seat? Our UKIP

strategy is to point out that if they want a referendum on if they

want to be in the EU or not, there is one way to get it, for the

Conservatives to form their next government and for me to be their

MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy what they want? I'm not sure it will

be accidental. People need to realise that if Ed Miliband is the

Prime Minister, there will be no referendum on the EU and UKIP may

have made their point but they would not have got their referendum. Over

at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up time. Not helping, Nigel? I had

major surgery on the 19th of November and I am still weak as a

kitten. I can barely lift a pint with my right hand, it is as serious

as that. The answer is, Carreon chaps, you're all doing a very good

job. There will be carrying on to the European elections in May, which

will provide more evidence of if the UKIP and wagon is powering on or if

it is just parked. -- bandwagon With me now is the Conservative MEP

Vicky fraud and UKIP director of medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He

will also be a candidate in the upcoming European elections. You

came second in Manchester, but it was not a close second. -- Vicky

Ford. There is nothing that is a game changer? I think it is very

unusual for any insurgent party like the liberals used to be, to

actually win a safe seat of the opposition. Those shocks, going back

to Walkington etc, it tended to be winning seats against an unpopular

government. We did extraordinarily well in Wythenshawe. Labour

compressed the campaign down to the shortest possible time and maxed out

the postal vote. Whatever we think about Labour, they do have an

efficient machine, lots of union activists signed a lot of people

with a lot of know-how. It pushed you into third place and showed the

increasing irrelevance of the Tories in the North? Tory minded voters in

the North Sea more inclined to vote for UKIP than you? I think

by-elections are by-elections. The same day, we took a seat from Labour

in Birmingham. Well, that was a by-election as well, so we should

discount that as well. You should learn from them, and we need to look

forward to the elections in 201 . That is in May this year, when we

have a chance to really grab this change in Europe, grab this change

that we were talking about just now. You don't worry, particularly in the

north, if people want to vote against Labour your supporters are

drifting to UKIP? I think people vote UKIP in a European election and

they have done that for many years. They vote that because they want

change. The problem is, Patrick s party have had MEPs since 1999 and

they cannot deliver that change They can't because they don't have

seats in Westminster. It was on that video, the only way we are going to

get the change we want in Europe is to have that referendum and have the

renegotiation, and that means vote Tory. What do you say to that? Let's

get real, the Conservative Party has not won a Parliamentary majority in

22 years. But the only way you will get a referendum, if that is what

motivates you, and with UKIP it is, motivates you, and with UKIP it is,

the only way it will be a referendum on Europe in this country as if

there is a majority Conservative government at the next election And

there is a majority Conservative you could well stop that from

happening? I don't accept that. I believe, just as we forced David

happening? I don't accept that. I Cameron and into a referendum pledge

before through our success, and I before through our success, and I

was there in PMQs, when his MPs asked him and he said it would not

be in the national interest because he didn't want to leave, our

electoral success forced that pledge. I believe by winning the

European action this May we can force Ed Miliband, again, against

his will, to match that pledge. Then, whatever formulation varies in

the next Parliament, we will get a referendum. Labour MPs have just had

the chance to say we want a referendum. They refused to do it.

The only way you are going to get a The only way you are going to get a

renegotiation, a change in our relationship with Europe and an in

renegotiation, a change in our or out referendum is to have a

renegotiation, a change in our Conservative Government. Please

UKIP, stop pretending that you can deliver, because you don't deliver

and you don't... We have delivered, we forced David Cameron to give a

pledge for a referendum he didn t want to make. We will know if you

are right about Ed Miliband or not, you will have to tell us going into

the campaign. If you are wrong, what do you do then? There are still

loads of reasons for people to vote UKIP. A referendum is one thing

loads of reasons for people to vote David Cameron, and I asked him

directly, thermally wants to stay in. He wants to be the Edward Heath

of the 21st century. The Tories are going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed

Miliband. What would you say to that? I would say we have probably

maxed out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has

been incredibly helpful in sending them in our direction. Our potential

for growth now, would we are concentrating on, his those

disenchanted former Labour voters and more and more of them are coming

towards us on things like immigration and law and order. We

want to renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need to have people

who are going to turn up to negotiate with people like Barroso.

That meant a Prime Minister that is not Ed Miliband but David Cameron.

That meant a Prime Minister that is UKIP MEPs do not turn up to

defenders. If President Hollande is as good as his word and says there

will be no substantial renegotiation, certainly no treaty

change this side of 2017 when he is up for the election, what do you do

then? He is a French Socialist Prime Minister, I don't expect him to

agree. But you can't bring anything of substance back with these

negotiations. Then people will vote to leave. The Prime Minister has

been very clear that British public to leave. The Prime Minister has

opinion is on a knife edge and unless we get what we want from a

renegotiation, we will leave. You would vote to leave? Let's see what

we get with the deal on the table in would vote to leave? Let's see what

2017. If the status quo was what we have today, I would vote to leave.

But I want to renegotiate. We will have to move on. For those viewers

lucky enough to live in the East of England, they will be seeing more of

Patrick in a moment. You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up

talking about, what else, the talking about, what else, the

Welcome to your local part of the show for Cumbria and the north`east.

2000 jobs are going at Durham county council. Do such councils have any

sort of future? We ask the leader. And we report on the campaign is

trying to save their local maternity services. I am joined by Labour MP

Andy McDonald and lived them European MP, fearing bottle.

We start with the fire station closures in Sunderland and Wallsend.

On Teeside, another debate, whether they mutually business owned and run

by its own employers should be set up, a John Lewis of firefighting, if

you like. You were in the meeting. Was anything said or change your

mind? I'm not sure I need to change my

mind. It seems that the authority are not wedded to the idea. They

have excluded as an option yet continue to look at it, I can quite

understand. And there was government money to look at this? Significant

funds. So I unclear if it is still an option. Does the chief fire

officer wanted? `` want it? There is no guarantee it would remain a

mutual. The opposite is true, within a few years it would have to be open

to tender and the likely option is privatisation. I am vehemently

opposed to that. There are, was it right to explore the idea `` Fiona.

All innovative possibilities are worth exploring. We know that the

John Lewis model works. It would need careful consideration to avoid

unforeseen hazards, but it is definitely worth exploring.

It has been a story of relentless cuts for local councils. This week,

Cumbria county council's term. `` turn. Three more years of savings

ahead, is it inevitable that councils will continue to shrink in

size and influence? Ed Miliband says there is another way.

Labour is talking about budgets lasting up to five years to offer

financial certainty. People would get more of a say on how councils

spend their money in communities. But they have not yet gone as far as

song, the think tank IPPR has called for a massive handover of power from

Whitehall to councils. But it warned that politicians often make promises

only to renege on them. It is harder to translate commitment into

reality. There are serious practical issues. The civil service is

reluctant to link was control of resources. It is hard to get the

public on side. `` reluctant to relinquish control. I don't think

that Londoners would want to see the discrepancies they are reversed. ``

there. You considered your own budget cuts

in Durham this week. Despite reductions in funding, many would

say the council is still doing a good job. Were you inefficient

before? Everything was done for a reason. We

need to live within our means. We have had to reduce the budget by 120

million already. We think there is another 100 million to come in the

next three years. After recent statements by George Osborne, it may

be longer than that. But clearly all councils, not just ours, will reduce

in size. How far can it keep going before you

are in a situation when you cannot provide the their minimum services

for vulnerable people, and children? Some councils are already moving to

that unfortunate decision. We are not one. We became a unitary

authority which made us the largest in the region, about 500 thousand

people. A critical mass which means we don't have to make difficult

decisions, possibly giving a slightly longer before we do have to

make those decisions. But in the next couple of years we will have to

look at everything we do and inevitably there will be another

reduction in size. The north`east councils working

together, with no more money, does it make any difference? It is a

difficult part in this country, that there is no level in between local

councils and the national government. That is not tenable. It

is interesting that the move to combined authorities have then

prompted by the national government. `` have been. As a conduit between

government and local government, people are bound to ask, will this

cost more money? The first thing is that it is important we work

together. It makes no sense for councils to work on their own,

particularly on strategic issues like skills and economic

development, transport... But will it cost more money? I have on a

number of occasions said that I don't believe we should look at new

expensive offices, buildings, and so on. We are trying to use councils

working together to save resources, if anything, to strategically land

better than at the moment. And to be able to advocate stronger than we

would do individually. Will this not be a distraction? What is being

talked about is a change at the centre. I very much support that.

You cannot have a period of austerity like this without looking

at the centre of government as well. Arguably, England is over governed

by the centre. There should be devolution of power away from the

centre to areas such as the north`east. Would you need a mayor

at the head of a combined authority? The government model is one of

combined authority and... How can you be democratically accountable?

You are from Durham and making decisions about Sunderland and

Newcastle. We are elected. Clearly, the issue with the previous body,

and I have to say I thought they did a good job, but democratically they

were unaccountable at the ballot box. That has been rectified.

Fiona, given that councils must manage with less, what is the vision

for the future? There is great advantages in devolving powers. The

Liberal Democrats support it. And with a combined authority going

forward we have the chance to do things that any single council on

its own cannot do all alone. But politicians talk a good game, and

when they deliver, it is weak. We see the need to do more. Like and

skills, for instance, where we have a European structural investment

fund that was not spent on a regional level beforehand and will

be now. I think it is a good thing but my only concern is that this

must not be another lot of meetings behind closed doors. It is important

everybody knows what is going on. Labour are saying they will hand

lots of powers over, being vague, when you get into power, will you

not say, we don't want to do that now? Ed Miliband set out a

commitment to a radical approach to local government and services. I

hope we're not going to too cynical. We were on a downward spiral to the

irreducible minimum of the basic discharge of statutory services.

This is a refreshing take on reversing the trend. The Labour

party have told us they will not be able to spend any more than the

Conservatives. Individual councils are in decline, and they? `` aren't

they? Where on earth is the equity in the distribution of the nation's

resources? We need to have our own sake, and that should be via a

direct body in this region. `` our own say. Some would say this is the

biggest crisis, there is so little left that some councils will be left

in a situation where they cannot abide the legal minimum. But as we

were saying, and Labour also acknowledge the severe cuts ahead,

not just the current government, but... You must talk to friends who

are counsellors and say that they cannot take any more of this. Also,

schools have been taken away from councils left right and centre. You

talk a good game about councils, but when it comes to it, we can then

financially, and weaken their powers. `` weaken them financially.

We have the potential to control the resources we have in difficult

circumstances in a way that is more focused on what we need. Talk of a

combined authority in Teeside. Should there be an elected mayor? It

is a possibility. But many people think that the break`up of Cleveland

county council was not the right step. Relatively small unitary

authorities with the expense incurred is questionable. We need to

work in a more collaborative way. That is across local authorities and

public utilities and services. Thank you very much. What does

William Hague have in common with a North Tyneside Labour in? Both have

campaigned to save maternity services. North `` a North Tyneside

Labour MP. Mother of four, Rebecca, discovered

she had epilepsy after her eldest child was born. That meant that to

deliver her next three children she could not go to her local hospital.

It only has midwives on duty, no doctors on hand to deal with

complications. But now North Tyneside Hospital may close it

maternity unit altogether. It is not necessary to have a doctoral lead

service, a midwife led unit is fine, I had Ellen one spec recently, `` in

Wansbeck, and they were absolutely brilliant. At the moment only around

four children a week are being delivered by North Tyneside. 90%

give birth outside of the area. The strongest message we heard was, we

want to deliver our babies where we get good midwife care, but in the

same building, there is a full team if we need it. That is just not the

case at North Tyneside. If somebody needs a doctor or operating theatre,

they have to get into an ambulance and be taken to a different

hospital. Planned changes have also been a big issue elsewhere in the

region. Opposition in North Yorkshire. The possibility of a

hospital being downgraded their to a midwife led department. That led to

the intervention of William Hague. A decision is imminent. The NHS closed

a unit in Northumberland due to concerns that they were so few

earths midwifes were not getting enough practice. `` so few briths. A

local Labour MP believes there have been too many changes in his

constituency. We were told at North Tyneside would retain the unit and

it was safe. And that it would be a good thing if consultant led

services went elsewhere. Now we're being told that the latest thinking

is that midwife led units should be in the same building as them. I want

to know why it is that thinking has changed so dramatically within a

decade to contradict what we were told last time. The last public

meeting about the future of the North Tyneside unit took place this

week and the consultation closes next month.

What distance is reasonable, do you think, to ask women to travel? One

thing that is difficult is that the situation in urban areas is

different to the situation in rural parts. You are looking at travelling

40 of the nine miles. `` 40 or 50. It is difficult, because for

complications, you want specialist services. But then on the other side

of the occasion, there is the anxiety about being away from your

family, the difficulty of travelling that distance. We need new ways of

addressing this. Bringing services remotely, improving training. In a

world of limited resources, not every service can be on your

doorstep, can it? None of us can expect that, but in this situation

we should listen to the people who matter, who use the service, and

that film pointed out clearly that we should start the process much

earlier. People need a say in the planning. Have people not already

voted with their feet? They are not giving birth at this hospital. You

make a very good point. If people are part of the discussion, we had

that in my neighbouring constituency, decisions were on

track. And people decided they wanted to be in a centre where there

was a consultant and midwife service in one. But I still maintain you

should listen to people at the outset before reaching crisis point.

One advantage of being all that is you get to travel free on the buses.

`` being older. But that is no consolation if bus services are cut.

More on that, and the rest of the weeks news, in 60 seconds. Ofsted

has voiced serious concerns about the quality of secondary education

in Cumbria is five more schools are placed under special measures. `` as

five more schools. One MP has argued that pensioners should be able to

pay subsidised fares to keep bus services going. I believe that the

way forward is to put concessionary travel by bus on the same legal

footing as for rail. The Chancellor visited Cumbria on Thursday and

warned about the impact of an independent Scotland. David Cameron

has promised what money it takes to help flood victims in the South.

They local MP has written to demand that victims in Cumbria get the same

government support. `` A local MP. However useful it is to have a free

bus pass, and I'm sure pensioners he stated, but the system is stretched,

and they are travelling for nothing. What you run the risk of doing is

bus companies saying, we will go where people pay, and not bother

elsewhere. People who cannot afford a contribution are denied access to

a public transport system. Is there any solution? Not unless you turn

the clock back a long way. But I applaud bus companies, be a little

bit more consistent in providing services. `` I implore. They need to

look at their responsibilities. There has to be a better solution

than just more public subsidy. If you opt for means testing you spend

more money on the administration. And across the board class is a very

simple way of helping pensioners. `` across the board pass. If people

want to pay there is nothing to stop them playing. `` paying. But the

individual who gets on next, he might not pay, someone else has? And

efficient way to get revenue is to tax wealthy pensioners at the same

way you with tax wealthy people in general. There is no by having a

really expensive and student body. That is about that. Thanks to my

guests. No Sunday Baltics next week. `` Politics. In a fortnight we will

ask if rural areas direction? No, in real terms now the

rent is falling in London. Andrew, back to you.

Welcome back. Let's start by talking about the weather. What could be

more British? It has been practically the only topic of

conversation for the past few weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has

made the direct link, declaims, between this exceptionally wet and

windy weather and climate change. That's an interesting development,

taking place. Ed Miliband is the author of the 2008 Climate Change

Act, so he has to stick to that line or his life 's work goes up in

smoke. When he passed it, there was Westminster consensus. Now the

Tories are beginning to appeal off. UKIP has definitely peeled off.

Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to their guns, there is now a debate?

It has moved from consensus to very fragile consensus. It's an

interesting tactic for Ed Miliband to take. He could either approach

the floods talking about government failures and handling, instead he

has gone for the intellectual argument, try and turn this into a

debate about ideology and climate change. I think he will find that

quite difficult. Partly, I don't think the public I get listening to

an argument like that. Partly because only one in three of the

public totally agree with him. The polls for The Times think that about

one in three think that man-made I'm a change is responsible for these

floods, the rest do not. I'm not sure that the interventions will be

particularly well picked up. It puts David Cameron in a difficult

position. He was hugging those huskies, it was going to be the

greenest Government ever, and now he has an Environment secretary that

doesn't really believe in climate change. Well, we don't know where he

stands. That is not where he was in 2010. It has always been sold to us

that he is statesman-like and pragmatic, but that drifts into he

doesn't really believe anything This is a worldwide phenomenon now.

You've got the Canadian government, they are pretty sceptical these

days. The new Australian government is pretty sceptical. The Obama

administration has been attacked by the green movement across the United

States, he is probably about to approve the keystone pipeline that

will take over the Texas refineries. What was a huge consensus across the

globe is a guinea to break down Probably started to break down about

the time of the financial crisis, the age of austerity, when suddenly

people had more to worry about than green issues. Even at home it is a

slightly risky tactic for Ed Miliband. The idea there is a

scientific consensus on this, there isn't. You look at Professor Collins

this morning, climate systems expert, saying, actually, the jet

stream is not operating further south because of climate change Or

if it is, it is beyond our knowledge. He flies in the face of

what Ed Miliband as saying. He's saying the wet weather is caused by

global warming, the head of science at Exeter University says the IPCC

originally looked at whether climate change could affect what happens to

the jet stream and, because it had no evidence it had any effect, it

decided not to include it at all in the IPCC report. The problem we have

got is that any individual phenomenon is difficult to attribute

to climate change. But the Labour Leader just have? And The Met Office

have done the same thing. It's a fragile in, but overall we can say

we are getting more extreme weather than ever. The most extreme weather,

hurricanes and tropical storm is, they have been in decline. Equally,

we have had ten of the hottest summers in the last ten years since

1998. Overall, there is a case that can be made that we are getting

more. Each individual thing is difficult to say. Until recently,

almost everyone agreed with that case. Now the parties are reflecting

differences. I wanted to move on, what did you make of two interesting

things that happened with the interview with UKIP and the Tories,

one Cory saying I am voting to come out, and the UKIP chap saying we are

maxed out on Tory defectors, we can't get any more? I think that was

a dangerous admission from Patrick O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially

saying that their vote has peaked. Looking at the by-elections, I'm not

sure that was a particularly wise reflection on that. They got 18 ,

23% last year. The case he is making is that there are more votes to be

gained by attracting former Labour voters than former Tories. I'm not

sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP that tries to make benefit

protection and some other kind of social issues at the heart really

sits comfortably with their insurgent, anti-state message. I

don't think it will do particularly well. This is why they are pushing

the message, it is their response to the idea and suggestion of a Tory

rallying cry that they vote for Nigel Farage, and it is really a

vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a very good journalist, a very good

commentator. He answered almost as a commentator rather than head of

communications for a political party. The Government are still

trying to rid itself of troublesome priests, an attack on welfare

reforms from the Catholic Archbishop of Westminster. Let's have a look

and see what he said. The basic safety net that was there to

guarantee that people would not be left in hunger or in destitution has

actually been torn apart. It no longer exists. And it is a real

real, dramatic crisis. The second is that, in this context, the

administration of social assistance, I am told, has become more and more

punitive. If applicants do not get it right, they have to wait and they

have to wait for ten days, two weeks, with nothing. Has the basic

safety net disappeared? I don't see how it is possible to argue that. It

is certainly the case that there have been reductions in various

benefits, some benefits have been scrapped and there is a welfare

reform programme. But this country is still spending ?94 billion a year

on working age benefits. Excluding pensions? The idea that this equates

to some sort of wiping out of the safety net is... He has gone on a

full frontal assault on the Tory reforms, not the kind of attack that

Labour would be prepared to make? No, they know that it doesn't play

very well in the country. He's not up for election. Whether or not you

agree about the safety net, I think the welfare reforms have been poorly

managed and I don't think that is a full dispute. Universal credit, it

is in some very long grass. It had some stupid ideas, like the idea

that it would be paid monthly, instead of weekly, meaning that

people are more likely to run out of money by the end of the month. It's

interesting, in the past, when members of the cloth have attacked

the government for welfare reforms, the Government have responded by

trying to paint them as lefties ideological driven. I think that is

hard in this case, an assault made deliberately in the Telegraph from

somebody who feels they come from a centre-right position. I think there

will be a bit of awkwardness about this intervention. It is not the

kind of thing they wanted to see. Is it politically damaging for the

Government? It is if it makes them look mean-spirited. But that is the

problem with welfare reforms. You can say all sorts of things about

Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But the whole thing springs from a moral

mission, as he sees it, to liberate the poor and extend opportunity One

of the worst moments for the Tories was blaming the low level of voting

in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact that the constituency had, in the

words of one senior Tory, the largest council estate in Europe

inside its constituency boundary. The point being what? Because you

live in a council estate you don't vote? That they don't see people

living in council estate as one of them, not an impulse that Margaret

Thatcher would have had. I think it's dangerous if they are painting

is people as opponents rather than trying to win them over. When they

do vote, they determine elections! The idea that there is no such thing

as a working-class Tory is toxic. I want to show you a picture. There we

go. It is behind me, on the 5th of February, it is all men. And then,

on the next, look at that, the 2th, there are a few women. Not exactly

many, but some. It is an improvement. But it is so

transparent, isn't it? We phoned up one of the women that sat behind

David Cameron to ask, why the sudden change? They said, I don't know why

you are bothering to ask, it is completely natural, we didn't do

anything to stage manage it. Did his nose gets longer? It is something

that is very transparent and depressing about the way politicians

choose to react to these moments. Every week they put two women behind

David Cameron, so that a tight shot shows them. It is called the

doughnut. They don't have many women to shuffle around, there are only

four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet. Also, the fact that women, younger

women in particular, are much less likely to vote Tory than five or ten

years ago. David Cameron, it drives and furious, he is obviously aware

this is one of the biggest potential demographic problem is that they

have. It also reminds us of how the public can actually see the wiring

behind a lot of the stuff. Do they really think your blog so stupid

that they will not notice that the following week the front bench is

packed with women? I think it just increases contempt for the entire

rocket. It is an issue where Labour seem to have pulled ahead of the

other parties. We are being told that 50% of candidates in their 100

target seats will be female. It looks like the composition of Labour

continues to go towards a kind of rough 50-50 split, eventually.

Although that is true, I think the faces we see on the telly, Ed

Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie, they are almost always men. There is

a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female face that goes up a lot. But really,

the number of e-mails they put up is proportionally a lot smaller. Is the

Miliband team still a men's club? Behind the scenes, it is very

blokey. It's been described as a kind of seminar room at a

university. I think that is true. The Observer did the cutout and keep

of the people behind Mr Miliband. As opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with

lots of women in it, it was very male. The one reason Labour have all

of these women to put up in constituencies is all women short

lists is. If Tories want to change things, I know they can be prone to

minute -- and in relation, but they work. In ten years time, I think it

will give Labour an immense advantage. By then, I think they

will have a woman leader. Who will that be? Potentially somebody not

even yet in the Commons. You can see how quickly people can rise to the

top, but the Labour Party is going to be increasingly donated by women.

Do you think there will be a Labour Leader before Theresa May becomes

leader of the Conservatives? I think it is ultimately about Osborne

trying to stop Boris. I think I would be astonished if she managed

it. The first female Labour Leader? I would pick Rachel Reeves the way

it is currently going, she knows her stuff and does well on TV. That is

all for this week. We have a week off now. I'll be back in the week

after next. Remember, if it is Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics,

unless it's a Parliamentary recess.