16/02/2014 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria


16/02/2014

Andrew Neil and Richard Moss with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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Transcript


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Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be

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extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent

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Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the

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European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant

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debate. It's our top story. He has debate. It's our top story. He has

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the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow

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joined us for the Sunday interview. Another

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close to expectant mums. And cupid's arrow hits Carlisle as the Cumbrian

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close to expectant mums. And cupid's look at his decisions and priorities

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with the help of his chief of staff. With me, the best and brightest

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political panel in the business The twits will be as incessant and

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probably as welcome as the recent rain. A significant new development

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in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the

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President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel

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Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that

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an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union

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as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28

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member states and that would be in his words, extremely difficult, if

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not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out

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of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very

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important, the application to the union would have to be approved by

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all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the

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secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your

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democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely

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difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have

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a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that

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Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is

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a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be

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externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't

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want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive

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into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex

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Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to

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the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with

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England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last

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week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically

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get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that

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they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get

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the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more

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significant than the application? The reference to Spain is

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interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active

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area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other

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countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no

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reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by

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letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it

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does get in, it solves the currency problem because all new members have

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to accept the Euro? At the moment, the SNP are rejecting that quite

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strongly. What an interesting intervention today. However, I know

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that those arguing that Scotland should stay in the union are worried

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that the polls are tightening. A lot of these interventions, parents care

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arguments, they don't look like they are convincing the Scottish people.

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We haven't had any polls yet? We haven't, but we have since the

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currency debate was reignited in the last few weeks and it shows the

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polls tightening slightly. I think Alistair Darling's campaign would

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prefer to be much further ahead at the stage. They are worried that

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these technical commandments are not having much sway. Are the polls

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tightening slightly? They could be within the statistical margin for

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error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of

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reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in

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the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a

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member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both

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of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already

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told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is

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playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister,

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John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the

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constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was

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also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A

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second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last

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minute. The leader of the biggest

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underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members

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into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the

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national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership

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has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when

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union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has

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seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to

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close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the

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beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100

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million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has

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threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes.

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Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the

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moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of

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all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it

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quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices

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would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone

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wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep

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them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not

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the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking

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offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a

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booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less

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than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness.

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Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV

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that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time

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people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed.

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People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit

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behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent,

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however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they

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were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out

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of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket

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offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind

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and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the

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underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They

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are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers?

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Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got

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some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a

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whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in

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decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million

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people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per

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day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We

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are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more

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people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming

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home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people

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drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of

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the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I

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want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I

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think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because

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you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what

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that has got to do with it. Let s get every editor of the daily

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newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to

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know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that...

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You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and

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follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were

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taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they

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go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on

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holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They

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sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be

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?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never

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mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what

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you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning I

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see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next

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four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot

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of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do

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anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be

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doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not

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strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good

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terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is all

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of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they

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have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to

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do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for

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your members and why union membership has been rising, people

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want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost

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for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone

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believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are

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going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on

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the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at

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some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The

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starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary

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for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a

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teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had

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to live through 24 strikes in 1 years to push up your members

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wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by

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conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the

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teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the

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end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up

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the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are

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fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all

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support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars

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around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members

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pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if

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we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who

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travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care Of

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course they care, I've said before that I apologise to the troubling

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public for the dispute that took place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It

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two to tango. If the boy never imposed terms and conditions on us

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against our will... But you've got great terms and conditions! But it's

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a constant battle, they are trying to change them. Drivers are having

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their pay going up to ?50,000. You said they are making it worse, it is

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going up. They are trying to make things worse for workers. You said

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at the start of the interview that the tube strike cost ?100 million in

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two days. It means that when members go to work for two days it is worth

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?100 million. That demonstrates what they are worth. Only a fighting

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trade union can defend workers out there. Your members should enjoy

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what you have got for them, because it's not going to last, is it?

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Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx

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says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and

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the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of

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it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out

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for new technology. But for who To put people on the dole, so they

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can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so

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everybody benefits, lower fares better service and better terms and

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conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the

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underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute

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technology for Labour. And that s what it's going to do, it is closing

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the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless

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trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this

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because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming

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in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it

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is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it

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breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be

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stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who

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cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality

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is simple, it is a nonsense. It s not going to happen because it is a

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Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless

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but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small

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section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me

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about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over

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their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created

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all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many

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people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the

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stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and

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greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better

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service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the

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ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single

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ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes

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of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long

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transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket.

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The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is

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that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people

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having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use

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the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the

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offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I

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struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages.

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They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is

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press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being

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and what makes the London Underground so precious is that

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people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out

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on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the

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concourse and they will have machines. The fact is that London

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Underground did a risk assessment of closing down their booking offices

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and it is clear that if you are disabled, if you are partially

:18:32.:18:35.

sighted, London Underground becomes more dangerous. You are posing the

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closing of ticket offices, opposing driverless trains, when you opposed

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to the Oyster card when it came in? No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal

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with it. It is not the only way They should supplement the staff and

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the job. If more people used the London Underground system, you want

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more staff to deal with them. Let's look at your mandate to strike. Of

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your members who work on the Tube, only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30%

:19:25.:19:33.

voted for the strike, so 70% actually didn't vote to strike of

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your members, but the strike went ahead. Isn't it right to have a

:19:39.:19:44.

higher threshold before you can cause this disruption? It would be

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lovely if everyone voted but the Tories took that away. We used to

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have ballots at the workplace. What I'm trying to say to you is that we

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used to have a ballot box at the workplace and the turnouts were

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higher. The Tories believe that if they can have a secret ballot where

:20:08.:20:13.

ballot papers went to people's home addresses, where they could be

:20:14.:20:18.

persuaded by the bosses, votes would be different. Let's go back to the

:20:19.:20:22.

workplace ballot because you get a bigger turnout. Will the RMT

:20:23.:20:30.

re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I have no intention to. We got

:20:31.:20:35.

expelled from the Labour Party. But you will give some money to the

:20:36.:20:43.

Labour councils? Those that support our basic policies get money, we

:20:44.:20:53.

don't give money directly to MPs, we give it to constituencies. Are you

:20:54.:20:57.

going to stand for re-election in 2016? I might do, I might not. You

:20:58.:21:07.

haven't decided yet? No, but more than likely I will do. And will you

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stand again as an anti-EU candidate? Yes, I am standing in London, and

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right across, completely different to UKIP's policies. They are

:21:22.:21:27.

anti-European, they believe all of the faults of Europe are down to the

:21:28.:21:33.

immigrants. We are anti-European Union. If London Underground is as

:21:34.:21:39.

badly run as you think, why don t you run for mayor? That is down the

:21:40.:21:46.

road, it has not come up yet. I m not ruling anything out. I'm not

:21:47.:21:51.

ruling out getting your job on the Sunday Politics. You have got to

:21:52.:21:57.

retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to

:21:58.:22:04.

renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have

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your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if

:22:10.:22:20.

you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later

:22:21.:22:27.

in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel

:22:28.:22:33.

Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish

:22:34.:22:39.

Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now

:22:40.:22:45.

heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I

:22:46.:22:51.

think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He

:22:52.:22:59.

compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member,

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Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to

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reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are

:23:12.:23:15.

compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been

:23:16.:23:19.

part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work

:23:20.:23:26.

about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership

:23:27.:23:29.

of the European Union and that position has now been explained and

:23:30.:23:35.

debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are

:23:36.:23:48.

talking about the president of the European commission and we have

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spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning,

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it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that

:23:57.:24:05.

Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they

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will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it

:24:14.:24:17.

if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state

:24:18.:24:22.

of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish

:24:23.:24:28.

membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if

:24:29.:24:34.

there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an

:24:35.:24:37.

independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue.

:24:38.:24:42.

That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no

:24:43.:24:47.

stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union

:24:48.:24:51.

because it is important that Scotland is already part of the

:24:52.:24:55.

European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union

:24:56.:25:01.

and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation

:25:02.:25:05.

in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that

:25:06.:25:16.

David Cameron wants to have in 017. It has not been a great week for

:25:17.:25:21.

you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has

:25:22.:25:27.

been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel

:25:28.:25:31.

Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it

:25:32.:25:38.

has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the

:25:39.:25:44.

Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within

:25:45.:25:48.

Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is

:25:49.:25:57.

Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect

:25:58.:26:00.

comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence

:26:01.:26:08.

and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves

:26:09.:26:14.

your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We

:26:15.:26:20.

have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be

:26:21.:26:28.

to establish the currency union You would have to adopt the euro. That's

:26:29.:26:35.

not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for

:26:36.:26:39.

two years before you can apply for membership and an independent

:26:40.:26:42.

Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or

:26:43.:26:48.

the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our

:26:49.:26:52.

arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests

:26:53.:26:58.

of Scotland and the UK. Thank you for joining us this morning.

:26:59.:27:04.

This week's least surprising news was that Labour won the safe seat of

:27:05.:27:07.

Wythenshawe and Sale East in a by-election, following the death of

:27:08.:27:10.

the MP Paul Goggins. With the result so predictable, all eyes were on

:27:11.:27:14.

whether this would be the sixth time this parliament that UKIP would come

:27:15.:27:17.

second. And whether they'd chip away at Labour's vote, not just the

:27:18.:27:20.

Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed up all night to find out what it all

:27:21.:27:31.

meant. Forget the hype. Forget the theorising. And yes - everyone has a

:27:32.:27:41.

theory. UKIP are learning from us. What have they picked up from you?

:27:42.:27:48.

To be silly. Thanks to this week's by-election we've got some hard

:27:49.:27:51.

evidence in paper form that helps answer the question: How are UKIP

:27:52.:27:54.

doing? Turns out the answer is well, but not well enough to beat Labour.

:27:55.:28:04.

I'm therefore claim -- declare that Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have

:28:05.:28:10.

come second and increased their share of the vote quite

:28:11.:28:13.

significantly. But their performance isn't as good as their performances

:28:14.:28:16.

in some of the other by-elections this parliament. Just don't suggest

:28:17.:28:18.

to them that their bandwagon has ground to a halt. A week ago you'd

:28:19.:28:29.

told me you were going to win, what happened? No, I didn't, I said I

:28:30.:28:38.

wanted to win. My mistake. How are you feeling? It is a Labour

:28:39.:28:42.

stronghold, we always knew it was going to be a fight. Labour were

:28:43.:28:49.

running scared of letting us present our arguments. UKIP's campaign in

:28:50.:28:53.

Wythenshawe didn't point to the right but to the left, with leaflets

:28:54.:28:56.

that branded Labour as a party of millionaires who didn't care about

:28:57.:29:00.

the working class. It wasn't a winning strategy but it did help

:29:01.:29:03.

them beat the Tories who focused on dog mess and potholes instead.

:29:04.:29:08.

Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford from Manchester Uni thinks they

:29:09.:29:14.

could be on the right track. He s analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP

:29:15.:29:17.

voters for a new book, which could confound the received wisdom about

:29:18.:29:29.

the party. The common media image of the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy

:29:30.:29:36.

faced golf club and -- member from the south-east of the UK and many

:29:37.:29:41.

UKIP activists do resemble that stereotype to some extent, they do

:29:42.:29:46.

pick up a lot of activists from the Conservative party, but UKIP voters

:29:47.:29:50.

are older, more working class, more likely to live in Northern, urban

:29:51.:29:56.

areas, and they are much more anti-system than anti-EU. And

:29:57.:30:00.

they're precisely the voters that the Tory MP David Mowat needs if

:30:01.:30:03.

he's to hold on to his narrow majority in the constituency just

:30:04.:30:16.

down the road. Do you have a UKIP strategy in your seat? Our UKIP

:30:17.:30:20.

strategy is to point out that if they want a referendum on if they

:30:21.:30:23.

want to be in the EU or not, there is one way to get it, for the

:30:24.:30:26.

Conservatives to form their next government and for me to be their

:30:27.:30:32.

MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy what they want? I'm not sure it will

:30:33.:30:39.

be accidental. People need to realise that if Ed Miliband is the

:30:40.:30:42.

Prime Minister, there will be no referendum on the EU and UKIP may

:30:43.:30:47.

have made their point but they would not have got their referendum. Over

:30:48.:30:55.

at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up time. Not helping, Nigel? I had

:30:56.:31:02.

major surgery on the 19th of November and I am still weak as a

:31:03.:31:06.

kitten. I can barely lift a pint with my right hand, it is as serious

:31:07.:31:10.

as that. The answer is, Carreon chaps, you're all doing a very good

:31:11.:31:15.

job. There will be carrying on to the European elections in May, which

:31:16.:31:19.

will provide more evidence of if the UKIP and wagon is powering on or if

:31:20.:31:25.

it is just parked. -- bandwagon With me now is the Conservative MEP

:31:26.:31:30.

Vicky fraud and UKIP director of medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He

:31:31.:31:34.

will also be a candidate in the upcoming European elections. You

:31:35.:31:37.

came second in Manchester, but it was not a close second. -- Vicky

:31:38.:31:44.

Ford. There is nothing that is a game changer? I think it is very

:31:45.:31:49.

unusual for any insurgent party like the liberals used to be, to

:31:50.:31:53.

actually win a safe seat of the opposition. Those shocks, going back

:31:54.:32:04.

to Walkington etc, it tended to be winning seats against an unpopular

:32:05.:32:09.

government. We did extraordinarily well in Wythenshawe. Labour

:32:10.:32:12.

compressed the campaign down to the shortest possible time and maxed out

:32:13.:32:15.

the postal vote. Whatever we think about Labour, they do have an

:32:16.:32:20.

efficient machine, lots of union activists signed a lot of people

:32:21.:32:25.

with a lot of know-how. It pushed you into third place and showed the

:32:26.:32:29.

increasing irrelevance of the Tories in the North? Tory minded voters in

:32:30.:32:34.

the North Sea more inclined to vote for UKIP than you? I think

:32:35.:32:38.

by-elections are by-elections. The same day, we took a seat from Labour

:32:39.:32:43.

in Birmingham. Well, that was a by-election as well, so we should

:32:44.:32:48.

discount that as well. You should learn from them, and we need to look

:32:49.:32:52.

forward to the elections in 201 . That is in May this year, when we

:32:53.:32:56.

have a chance to really grab this change in Europe, grab this change

:32:57.:33:04.

that we were talking about just now. You don't worry, particularly in the

:33:05.:33:08.

north, if people want to vote against Labour your supporters are

:33:09.:33:13.

drifting to UKIP? I think people vote UKIP in a European election and

:33:14.:33:16.

they have done that for many years. They vote that because they want

:33:17.:33:21.

change. The problem is, Patrick s party have had MEPs since 1999 and

:33:22.:33:25.

they cannot deliver that change They can't because they don't have

:33:26.:33:30.

seats in Westminster. It was on that video, the only way we are going to

:33:31.:33:35.

get the change we want in Europe is to have that referendum and have the

:33:36.:33:39.

renegotiation, and that means vote Tory. What do you say to that? Let's

:33:40.:33:48.

get real, the Conservative Party has not won a Parliamentary majority in

:33:49.:33:53.

22 years. But the only way you will get a referendum, if that is what

:33:54.:33:55.

motivates you, and with UKIP it is, motivates you, and with UKIP it is,

:33:56.:33:59.

the only way it will be a referendum on Europe in this country as if

:34:00.:34:02.

there is a majority Conservative government at the next election And

:34:03.:34:04.

there is a majority Conservative you could well stop that from

:34:05.:34:09.

happening? I don't accept that. I believe, just as we forced David

:34:10.:34:11.

happening? I don't accept that. I Cameron and into a referendum pledge

:34:12.:34:14.

before through our success, and I before through our success, and I

:34:15.:34:18.

was there in PMQs, when his MPs asked him and he said it would not

:34:19.:34:21.

be in the national interest because he didn't want to leave, our

:34:22.:34:24.

electoral success forced that pledge. I believe by winning the

:34:25.:34:29.

European action this May we can force Ed Miliband, again, against

:34:30.:34:33.

his will, to match that pledge. Then, whatever formulation varies in

:34:34.:34:36.

the next Parliament, we will get a referendum. Labour MPs have just had

:34:37.:34:43.

the chance to say we want a referendum. They refused to do it.

:34:44.:34:45.

The only way you are going to get a The only way you are going to get a

:34:46.:34:50.

renegotiation, a change in our relationship with Europe and an in

:34:51.:34:53.

renegotiation, a change in our or out referendum is to have a

:34:54.:34:54.

renegotiation, a change in our Conservative Government. Please

:34:55.:34:57.

UKIP, stop pretending that you can deliver, because you don't deliver

:34:58.:35:04.

and you don't... We have delivered, we forced David Cameron to give a

:35:05.:35:07.

pledge for a referendum he didn t want to make. We will know if you

:35:08.:35:13.

are right about Ed Miliband or not, you will have to tell us going into

:35:14.:35:17.

the campaign. If you are wrong, what do you do then? There are still

:35:18.:35:22.

loads of reasons for people to vote UKIP. A referendum is one thing

:35:23.:35:24.

loads of reasons for people to vote David Cameron, and I asked him

:35:25.:35:30.

directly, thermally wants to stay in. He wants to be the Edward Heath

:35:31.:35:36.

of the 21st century. The Tories are going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed

:35:37.:35:40.

Miliband. What would you say to that? I would say we have probably

:35:41.:35:44.

maxed out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has

:35:45.:35:48.

been incredibly helpful in sending them in our direction. Our potential

:35:49.:35:53.

for growth now, would we are concentrating on, his those

:35:54.:35:58.

disenchanted former Labour voters and more and more of them are coming

:35:59.:36:01.

towards us on things like immigration and law and order. We

:36:02.:36:07.

want to renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need to have people

:36:08.:36:11.

who are going to turn up to negotiate with people like Barroso.

:36:12.:36:14.

That meant a Prime Minister that is not Ed Miliband but David Cameron.

:36:15.:36:21.

That meant a Prime Minister that is UKIP MEPs do not turn up to

:36:22.:36:26.

defenders. If President Hollande is as good as his word and says there

:36:27.:36:31.

will be no substantial renegotiation, certainly no treaty

:36:32.:36:35.

change this side of 2017 when he is up for the election, what do you do

:36:36.:36:41.

then? He is a French Socialist Prime Minister, I don't expect him to

:36:42.:36:46.

agree. But you can't bring anything of substance back with these

:36:47.:36:54.

negotiations. Then people will vote to leave. The Prime Minister has

:36:55.:36:56.

been very clear that British public to leave. The Prime Minister has

:36:57.:37:02.

opinion is on a knife edge and unless we get what we want from a

:37:03.:37:06.

renegotiation, we will leave. You would vote to leave? Let's see what

:37:07.:37:09.

we get with the deal on the table in would vote to leave? Let's see what

:37:10.:37:13.

2017. If the status quo was what we have today, I would vote to leave.

:37:14.:37:18.

But I want to renegotiate. We will have to move on. For those viewers

:37:19.:37:24.

lucky enough to live in the East of England, they will be seeing more of

:37:25.:37:27.

Patrick in a moment. You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up

:37:28.:37:32.

talking about, what else, the talking about, what else, the

:37:33.:37:48.

Welcome to your local part of the show for Cumbria and the north`east.

:37:49.:37:56.

2000 jobs are going at Durham county council. Do such councils have any

:37:57.:38:04.

sort of future? We ask the leader. And we report on the campaign is

:38:05.:38:09.

trying to save their local maternity services. I am joined by Labour MP

:38:10.:38:17.

Andy McDonald and lived them European MP, fearing bottle.

:38:18.:38:26.

We start with the fire station closures in Sunderland and Wallsend.

:38:27.:38:34.

On Teeside, another debate, whether they mutually business owned and run

:38:35.:38:37.

by its own employers should be set up, a John Lewis of firefighting, if

:38:38.:38:46.

you like. You were in the meeting. Was anything said or change your

:38:47.:38:52.

mind? I'm not sure I need to change my

:38:53.:38:56.

mind. It seems that the authority are not wedded to the idea. They

:38:57.:39:04.

have excluded as an option yet continue to look at it, I can quite

:39:05.:39:10.

understand. And there was government money to look at this? Significant

:39:11.:39:17.

funds. So I unclear if it is still an option. Does the chief fire

:39:18.:39:34.

officer wanted? `` want it? There is no guarantee it would remain a

:39:35.:39:39.

mutual. The opposite is true, within a few years it would have to be open

:39:40.:39:43.

to tender and the likely option is privatisation. I am vehemently

:39:44.:39:52.

opposed to that. There are, was it right to explore the idea `` Fiona.

:39:53.:40:03.

All innovative possibilities are worth exploring. We know that the

:40:04.:40:12.

John Lewis model works. It would need careful consideration to avoid

:40:13.:40:16.

unforeseen hazards, but it is definitely worth exploring.

:40:17.:40:27.

It has been a story of relentless cuts for local councils. This week,

:40:28.:40:36.

Cumbria county council's term. `` turn. Three more years of savings

:40:37.:40:45.

ahead, is it inevitable that councils will continue to shrink in

:40:46.:40:51.

size and influence? Ed Miliband says there is another way.

:40:52.:40:59.

Labour is talking about budgets lasting up to five years to offer

:41:00.:41:08.

financial certainty. People would get more of a say on how councils

:41:09.:41:11.

spend their money in communities. But they have not yet gone as far as

:41:12.:41:18.

song, the think tank IPPR has called for a massive handover of power from

:41:19.:41:29.

Whitehall to councils. But it warned that politicians often make promises

:41:30.:41:38.

only to renege on them. It is harder to translate commitment into

:41:39.:41:43.

reality. There are serious practical issues. The civil service is

:41:44.:41:49.

reluctant to link was control of resources. It is hard to get the

:41:50.:41:58.

public on side. `` reluctant to relinquish control. I don't think

:41:59.:42:12.

that Londoners would want to see the discrepancies they are reversed. ``

:42:13.:42:21.

there. You considered your own budget cuts

:42:22.:42:28.

in Durham this week. Despite reductions in funding, many would

:42:29.:42:30.

say the council is still doing a good job. Were you inefficient

:42:31.:42:36.

before? Everything was done for a reason. We

:42:37.:42:43.

need to live within our means. We have had to reduce the budget by 120

:42:44.:42:49.

million already. We think there is another 100 million to come in the

:42:50.:42:54.

next three years. After recent statements by George Osborne, it may

:42:55.:42:59.

be longer than that. But clearly all councils, not just ours, will reduce

:43:00.:43:03.

in size. How far can it keep going before you

:43:04.:43:10.

are in a situation when you cannot provide the their minimum services

:43:11.:43:17.

for vulnerable people, and children? Some councils are already moving to

:43:18.:43:21.

that unfortunate decision. We are not one. We became a unitary

:43:22.:43:28.

authority which made us the largest in the region, about 500 thousand

:43:29.:43:35.

people. A critical mass which means we don't have to make difficult

:43:36.:43:40.

decisions, possibly giving a slightly longer before we do have to

:43:41.:43:47.

make those decisions. But in the next couple of years we will have to

:43:48.:43:50.

look at everything we do and inevitably there will be another

:43:51.:43:56.

reduction in size. The north`east councils working

:43:57.:43:59.

together, with no more money, does it make any difference? It is a

:44:00.:44:06.

difficult part in this country, that there is no level in between local

:44:07.:44:09.

councils and the national government. That is not tenable. It

:44:10.:44:18.

is interesting that the move to combined authorities have then

:44:19.:44:22.

prompted by the national government. `` have been. As a conduit between

:44:23.:44:30.

government and local government, people are bound to ask, will this

:44:31.:44:40.

cost more money? The first thing is that it is important we work

:44:41.:44:43.

together. It makes no sense for councils to work on their own,

:44:44.:44:48.

particularly on strategic issues like skills and economic

:44:49.:44:53.

development, transport... But will it cost more money? I have on a

:44:54.:44:59.

number of occasions said that I don't believe we should look at new

:45:00.:45:03.

expensive offices, buildings, and so on. We are trying to use councils

:45:04.:45:10.

working together to save resources, if anything, to strategically land

:45:11.:45:21.

better than at the moment. And to be able to advocate stronger than we

:45:22.:45:28.

would do individually. Will this not be a distraction? What is being

:45:29.:45:34.

talked about is a change at the centre. I very much support that.

:45:35.:45:41.

You cannot have a period of austerity like this without looking

:45:42.:45:47.

at the centre of government as well. Arguably, England is over governed

:45:48.:45:55.

by the centre. There should be devolution of power away from the

:45:56.:45:58.

centre to areas such as the north`east. Would you need a mayor

:45:59.:46:10.

at the head of a combined authority? The government model is one of

:46:11.:46:16.

combined authority and... How can you be democratically accountable?

:46:17.:46:22.

You are from Durham and making decisions about Sunderland and

:46:23.:46:29.

Newcastle. We are elected. Clearly, the issue with the previous body,

:46:30.:46:34.

and I have to say I thought they did a good job, but democratically they

:46:35.:46:38.

were unaccountable at the ballot box. That has been rectified.

:46:39.:46:50.

Fiona, given that councils must manage with less, what is the vision

:46:51.:46:57.

for the future? There is great advantages in devolving powers. The

:46:58.:47:06.

Liberal Democrats support it. And with a combined authority going

:47:07.:47:09.

forward we have the chance to do things that any single council on

:47:10.:47:24.

its own cannot do all alone. But politicians talk a good game, and

:47:25.:47:35.

when they deliver, it is weak. We see the need to do more. Like and

:47:36.:47:42.

skills, for instance, where we have a European structural investment

:47:43.:47:46.

fund that was not spent on a regional level beforehand and will

:47:47.:47:52.

be now. I think it is a good thing but my only concern is that this

:47:53.:47:55.

must not be another lot of meetings behind closed doors. It is important

:47:56.:48:05.

everybody knows what is going on. Labour are saying they will hand

:48:06.:48:09.

lots of powers over, being vague, when you get into power, will you

:48:10.:48:13.

not say, we don't want to do that now? Ed Miliband set out a

:48:14.:48:20.

commitment to a radical approach to local government and services. I

:48:21.:48:26.

hope we're not going to too cynical. We were on a downward spiral to the

:48:27.:48:31.

irreducible minimum of the basic discharge of statutory services.

:48:32.:48:36.

This is a refreshing take on reversing the trend. The Labour

:48:37.:48:46.

party have told us they will not be able to spend any more than the

:48:47.:48:50.

Conservatives. Individual councils are in decline, and they? `` aren't

:48:51.:49:08.

they? Where on earth is the equity in the distribution of the nation's

:49:09.:49:12.

resources? We need to have our own sake, and that should be via a

:49:13.:49:19.

direct body in this region. `` our own say. Some would say this is the

:49:20.:49:28.

biggest crisis, there is so little left that some councils will be left

:49:29.:49:31.

in a situation where they cannot abide the legal minimum. But as we

:49:32.:49:39.

were saying, and Labour also acknowledge the severe cuts ahead,

:49:40.:49:41.

not just the current government, but... You must talk to friends who

:49:42.:49:49.

are counsellors and say that they cannot take any more of this. Also,

:49:50.:49:57.

schools have been taken away from councils left right and centre. You

:49:58.:50:02.

talk a good game about councils, but when it comes to it, we can then

:50:03.:50:06.

financially, and weaken their powers. `` weaken them financially.

:50:07.:50:18.

We have the potential to control the resources we have in difficult

:50:19.:50:21.

circumstances in a way that is more focused on what we need. Talk of a

:50:22.:50:28.

combined authority in Teeside. Should there be an elected mayor? It

:50:29.:50:38.

is a possibility. But many people think that the break`up of Cleveland

:50:39.:50:41.

county council was not the right step. Relatively small unitary

:50:42.:50:48.

authorities with the expense incurred is questionable. We need to

:50:49.:50:56.

work in a more collaborative way. That is across local authorities and

:50:57.:51:02.

public utilities and services. Thank you very much. What does

:51:03.:51:07.

William Hague have in common with a North Tyneside Labour in? Both have

:51:08.:51:13.

campaigned to save maternity services. North `` a North Tyneside

:51:14.:51:32.

Labour MP. Mother of four, Rebecca, discovered

:51:33.:51:35.

she had epilepsy after her eldest child was born. That meant that to

:51:36.:51:41.

deliver her next three children she could not go to her local hospital.

:51:42.:51:47.

It only has midwives on duty, no doctors on hand to deal with

:51:48.:51:54.

complications. But now North Tyneside Hospital may close it

:51:55.:52:01.

maternity unit altogether. It is not necessary to have a doctoral lead

:52:02.:52:09.

service, a midwife led unit is fine, I had Ellen one spec recently, `` in

:52:10.:52:19.

Wansbeck, and they were absolutely brilliant. At the moment only around

:52:20.:52:27.

four children a week are being delivered by North Tyneside. 90%

:52:28.:52:38.

give birth outside of the area. The strongest message we heard was, we

:52:39.:52:42.

want to deliver our babies where we get good midwife care, but in the

:52:43.:52:47.

same building, there is a full team if we need it. That is just not the

:52:48.:52:55.

case at North Tyneside. If somebody needs a doctor or operating theatre,

:52:56.:53:00.

they have to get into an ambulance and be taken to a different

:53:01.:53:06.

hospital. Planned changes have also been a big issue elsewhere in the

:53:07.:53:11.

region. Opposition in North Yorkshire. The possibility of a

:53:12.:53:20.

hospital being downgraded their to a midwife led department. That led to

:53:21.:53:26.

the intervention of William Hague. A decision is imminent. The NHS closed

:53:27.:53:33.

a unit in Northumberland due to concerns that they were so few

:53:34.:53:37.

earths midwifes were not getting enough practice. `` so few briths. A

:53:38.:53:48.

local Labour MP believes there have been too many changes in his

:53:49.:54:00.

constituency. We were told at North Tyneside would retain the unit and

:54:01.:54:04.

it was safe. And that it would be a good thing if consultant led

:54:05.:54:09.

services went elsewhere. Now we're being told that the latest thinking

:54:10.:54:13.

is that midwife led units should be in the same building as them. I want

:54:14.:54:20.

to know why it is that thinking has changed so dramatically within a

:54:21.:54:23.

decade to contradict what we were told last time. The last public

:54:24.:54:29.

meeting about the future of the North Tyneside unit took place this

:54:30.:54:33.

week and the consultation closes next month.

:54:34.:54:39.

What distance is reasonable, do you think, to ask women to travel? One

:54:40.:54:46.

thing that is difficult is that the situation in urban areas is

:54:47.:54:51.

different to the situation in rural parts. You are looking at travelling

:54:52.:55:06.

40 of the nine miles. `` 40 or 50. It is difficult, because for

:55:07.:55:08.

complications, you want specialist services. But then on the other side

:55:09.:55:15.

of the occasion, there is the anxiety about being away from your

:55:16.:55:21.

family, the difficulty of travelling that distance. We need new ways of

:55:22.:55:29.

addressing this. Bringing services remotely, improving training. In a

:55:30.:55:36.

world of limited resources, not every service can be on your

:55:37.:55:42.

doorstep, can it? None of us can expect that, but in this situation

:55:43.:55:47.

we should listen to the people who matter, who use the service, and

:55:48.:55:52.

that film pointed out clearly that we should start the process much

:55:53.:55:57.

earlier. People need a say in the planning. Have people not already

:55:58.:56:04.

voted with their feet? They are not giving birth at this hospital. You

:56:05.:56:11.

make a very good point. If people are part of the discussion, we had

:56:12.:56:14.

that in my neighbouring constituency, decisions were on

:56:15.:56:23.

track. And people decided they wanted to be in a centre where there

:56:24.:56:27.

was a consultant and midwife service in one. But I still maintain you

:56:28.:56:34.

should listen to people at the outset before reaching crisis point.

:56:35.:56:40.

One advantage of being all that is you get to travel free on the buses.

:56:41.:56:48.

`` being older. But that is no consolation if bus services are cut.

:56:49.:57:02.

More on that, and the rest of the weeks news, in 60 seconds. Ofsted

:57:03.:57:09.

has voiced serious concerns about the quality of secondary education

:57:10.:57:13.

in Cumbria is five more schools are placed under special measures. `` as

:57:14.:57:24.

five more schools. One MP has argued that pensioners should be able to

:57:25.:57:28.

pay subsidised fares to keep bus services going. I believe that the

:57:29.:57:35.

way forward is to put concessionary travel by bus on the same legal

:57:36.:57:45.

footing as for rail. The Chancellor visited Cumbria on Thursday and

:57:46.:57:48.

warned about the impact of an independent Scotland. David Cameron

:57:49.:57:55.

has promised what money it takes to help flood victims in the South.

:57:56.:58:03.

They local MP has written to demand that victims in Cumbria get the same

:58:04.:58:13.

government support. `` A local MP. However useful it is to have a free

:58:14.:58:17.

bus pass, and I'm sure pensioners he stated, but the system is stretched,

:58:18.:58:27.

and they are travelling for nothing. What you run the risk of doing is

:58:28.:58:33.

bus companies saying, we will go where people pay, and not bother

:58:34.:58:40.

elsewhere. People who cannot afford a contribution are denied access to

:58:41.:58:45.

a public transport system. Is there any solution? Not unless you turn

:58:46.:58:54.

the clock back a long way. But I applaud bus companies, be a little

:58:55.:58:57.

bit more consistent in providing services. `` I implore. They need to

:58:58.:59:13.

look at their responsibilities. There has to be a better solution

:59:14.:59:20.

than just more public subsidy. If you opt for means testing you spend

:59:21.:59:25.

more money on the administration. And across the board class is a very

:59:26.:59:35.

simple way of helping pensioners. `` across the board pass. If people

:59:36.:59:45.

want to pay there is nothing to stop them playing. `` paying. But the

:59:46.:59:58.

individual who gets on next, he might not pay, someone else has? And

:59:59.:00:09.

efficient way to get revenue is to tax wealthy pensioners at the same

:00:10.:00:12.

way you with tax wealthy people in general. There is no by having a

:00:13.:00:22.

really expensive and student body. That is about that. Thanks to my

:00:23.:00:31.

guests. No Sunday Baltics next week. `` Politics. In a fortnight we will

:00:32.:00:35.

ask if rural areas direction? No, in real terms now the

:00:36.:00:44.

rent is falling in London. Andrew, back to you.

:00:45.:00:49.

Welcome back. Let's start by talking about the weather. What could be

:00:50.:00:53.

more British? It has been practically the only topic of

:00:54.:00:56.

conversation for the past few weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has

:00:57.:00:59.

made the direct link, declaims, between this exceptionally wet and

:01:00.:01:07.

windy weather and climate change. That's an interesting development,

:01:08.:01:10.

taking place. Ed Miliband is the author of the 2008 Climate Change

:01:11.:01:21.

Act, so he has to stick to that line or his life 's work goes up in

:01:22.:01:27.

smoke. When he passed it, there was Westminster consensus. Now the

:01:28.:01:30.

Tories are beginning to appeal off. UKIP has definitely peeled off.

:01:31.:01:35.

Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to their guns, there is now a debate?

:01:36.:01:40.

It has moved from consensus to very fragile consensus. It's an

:01:41.:01:43.

interesting tactic for Ed Miliband to take. He could either approach

:01:44.:01:46.

the floods talking about government failures and handling, instead he

:01:47.:01:50.

has gone for the intellectual argument, try and turn this into a

:01:51.:01:54.

debate about ideology and climate change. I think he will find that

:01:55.:01:57.

quite difficult. Partly, I don't think the public I get listening to

:01:58.:02:03.

an argument like that. Partly because only one in three of the

:02:04.:02:07.

public totally agree with him. The polls for The Times think that about

:02:08.:02:10.

one in three think that man-made I'm a change is responsible for these

:02:11.:02:15.

floods, the rest do not. I'm not sure that the interventions will be

:02:16.:02:21.

particularly well picked up. It puts David Cameron in a difficult

:02:22.:02:24.

position. He was hugging those huskies, it was going to be the

:02:25.:02:27.

greenest Government ever, and now he has an Environment secretary that

:02:28.:02:33.

doesn't really believe in climate change. Well, we don't know where he

:02:34.:02:38.

stands. That is not where he was in 2010. It has always been sold to us

:02:39.:02:42.

that he is statesman-like and pragmatic, but that drifts into he

:02:43.:02:46.

doesn't really believe anything This is a worldwide phenomenon now.

:02:47.:02:52.

You've got the Canadian government, they are pretty sceptical these

:02:53.:02:55.

days. The new Australian government is pretty sceptical. The Obama

:02:56.:02:59.

administration has been attacked by the green movement across the United

:03:00.:03:04.

States, he is probably about to approve the keystone pipeline that

:03:05.:03:13.

will take over the Texas refineries. What was a huge consensus across the

:03:14.:03:18.

globe is a guinea to break down Probably started to break down about

:03:19.:03:21.

the time of the financial crisis, the age of austerity, when suddenly

:03:22.:03:25.

people had more to worry about than green issues. Even at home it is a

:03:26.:03:29.

slightly risky tactic for Ed Miliband. The idea there is a

:03:30.:03:32.

scientific consensus on this, there isn't. You look at Professor Collins

:03:33.:03:37.

this morning, climate systems expert, saying, actually, the jet

:03:38.:03:42.

stream is not operating further south because of climate change Or

:03:43.:03:46.

if it is, it is beyond our knowledge. He flies in the face of

:03:47.:03:49.

what Ed Miliband as saying. He's saying the wet weather is caused by

:03:50.:03:56.

global warming, the head of science at Exeter University says the IPCC

:03:57.:04:00.

originally looked at whether climate change could affect what happens to

:04:01.:04:04.

the jet stream and, because it had no evidence it had any effect, it

:04:05.:04:08.

decided not to include it at all in the IPCC report. The problem we have

:04:09.:04:14.

got is that any individual phenomenon is difficult to attribute

:04:15.:04:18.

to climate change. But the Labour Leader just have? And The Met Office

:04:19.:04:21.

have done the same thing. It's a fragile in, but overall we can say

:04:22.:04:25.

we are getting more extreme weather than ever. The most extreme weather,

:04:26.:04:29.

hurricanes and tropical storm is, they have been in decline. Equally,

:04:30.:04:35.

we have had ten of the hottest summers in the last ten years since

:04:36.:04:41.

1998. Overall, there is a case that can be made that we are getting

:04:42.:04:46.

more. Each individual thing is difficult to say. Until recently,

:04:47.:04:49.

almost everyone agreed with that case. Now the parties are reflecting

:04:50.:04:55.

differences. I wanted to move on, what did you make of two interesting

:04:56.:04:57.

things that happened with the interview with UKIP and the Tories,

:04:58.:05:05.

one Cory saying I am voting to come out, and the UKIP chap saying we are

:05:06.:05:10.

maxed out on Tory defectors, we can't get any more? I think that was

:05:11.:05:14.

a dangerous admission from Patrick O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially

:05:15.:05:19.

saying that their vote has peaked. Looking at the by-elections, I'm not

:05:20.:05:23.

sure that was a particularly wise reflection on that. They got 18 ,

:05:24.:05:27.

23% last year. The case he is making is that there are more votes to be

:05:28.:05:32.

gained by attracting former Labour voters than former Tories. I'm not

:05:33.:05:36.

sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP that tries to make benefit

:05:37.:05:40.

protection and some other kind of social issues at the heart really

:05:41.:05:45.

sits comfortably with their insurgent, anti-state message. I

:05:46.:05:47.

don't think it will do particularly well. This is why they are pushing

:05:48.:05:54.

the message, it is their response to the idea and suggestion of a Tory

:05:55.:05:57.

rallying cry that they vote for Nigel Farage, and it is really a

:05:58.:06:03.

vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a very good journalist, a very good

:06:04.:06:08.

commentator. He answered almost as a commentator rather than head of

:06:09.:06:10.

communications for a political party. The Government are still

:06:11.:06:17.

trying to rid itself of troublesome priests, an attack on welfare

:06:18.:06:22.

reforms from the Catholic Archbishop of Westminster. Let's have a look

:06:23.:06:29.

and see what he said. The basic safety net that was there to

:06:30.:06:34.

guarantee that people would not be left in hunger or in destitution has

:06:35.:06:37.

actually been torn apart. It no longer exists. And it is a real

:06:38.:06:45.

real, dramatic crisis. The second is that, in this context, the

:06:46.:06:51.

administration of social assistance, I am told, has become more and more

:06:52.:06:55.

punitive. If applicants do not get it right, they have to wait and they

:06:56.:06:59.

have to wait for ten days, two weeks, with nothing. Has the basic

:07:00.:07:06.

safety net disappeared? I don't see how it is possible to argue that. It

:07:07.:07:10.

is certainly the case that there have been reductions in various

:07:11.:07:12.

benefits, some benefits have been scrapped and there is a welfare

:07:13.:07:16.

reform programme. But this country is still spending ?94 billion a year

:07:17.:07:21.

on working age benefits. Excluding pensions? The idea that this equates

:07:22.:07:29.

to some sort of wiping out of the safety net is... He has gone on a

:07:30.:07:34.

full frontal assault on the Tory reforms, not the kind of attack that

:07:35.:07:40.

Labour would be prepared to make? No, they know that it doesn't play

:07:41.:07:45.

very well in the country. He's not up for election. Whether or not you

:07:46.:07:51.

agree about the safety net, I think the welfare reforms have been poorly

:07:52.:07:54.

managed and I don't think that is a full dispute. Universal credit, it

:07:55.:07:59.

is in some very long grass. It had some stupid ideas, like the idea

:08:00.:08:02.

that it would be paid monthly, instead of weekly, meaning that

:08:03.:08:05.

people are more likely to run out of money by the end of the month. It's

:08:06.:08:10.

interesting, in the past, when members of the cloth have attacked

:08:11.:08:14.

the government for welfare reforms, the Government have responded by

:08:15.:08:19.

trying to paint them as lefties ideological driven. I think that is

:08:20.:08:24.

hard in this case, an assault made deliberately in the Telegraph from

:08:25.:08:27.

somebody who feels they come from a centre-right position. I think there

:08:28.:08:31.

will be a bit of awkwardness about this intervention. It is not the

:08:32.:08:35.

kind of thing they wanted to see. Is it politically damaging for the

:08:36.:08:39.

Government? It is if it makes them look mean-spirited. But that is the

:08:40.:08:43.

problem with welfare reforms. You can say all sorts of things about

:08:44.:08:46.

Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But the whole thing springs from a moral

:08:47.:08:53.

mission, as he sees it, to liberate the poor and extend opportunity One

:08:54.:08:56.

of the worst moments for the Tories was blaming the low level of voting

:08:57.:09:01.

in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact that the constituency had, in the

:09:02.:09:05.

words of one senior Tory, the largest council estate in Europe

:09:06.:09:09.

inside its constituency boundary. The point being what? Because you

:09:10.:09:13.

live in a council estate you don't vote? That they don't see people

:09:14.:09:17.

living in council estate as one of them, not an impulse that Margaret

:09:18.:09:21.

Thatcher would have had. I think it's dangerous if they are painting

:09:22.:09:24.

is people as opponents rather than trying to win them over. When they

:09:25.:09:30.

do vote, they determine elections! The idea that there is no such thing

:09:31.:09:36.

as a working-class Tory is toxic. I want to show you a picture. There we

:09:37.:09:42.

go. It is behind me, on the 5th of February, it is all men. And then,

:09:43.:09:49.

on the next, look at that, the 2th, there are a few women. Not exactly

:09:50.:09:54.

many, but some. It is an improvement. But it is so

:09:55.:09:59.

transparent, isn't it? We phoned up one of the women that sat behind

:10:00.:10:04.

David Cameron to ask, why the sudden change? They said, I don't know why

:10:05.:10:08.

you are bothering to ask, it is completely natural, we didn't do

:10:09.:10:12.

anything to stage manage it. Did his nose gets longer? It is something

:10:13.:10:16.

that is very transparent and depressing about the way politicians

:10:17.:10:21.

choose to react to these moments. Every week they put two women behind

:10:22.:10:28.

David Cameron, so that a tight shot shows them. It is called the

:10:29.:10:32.

doughnut. They don't have many women to shuffle around, there are only

:10:33.:10:37.

four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet. Also, the fact that women, younger

:10:38.:10:42.

women in particular, are much less likely to vote Tory than five or ten

:10:43.:10:48.

years ago. David Cameron, it drives and furious, he is obviously aware

:10:49.:10:54.

this is one of the biggest potential demographic problem is that they

:10:55.:10:58.

have. It also reminds us of how the public can actually see the wiring

:10:59.:11:02.

behind a lot of the stuff. Do they really think your blog so stupid

:11:03.:11:04.

that they will not notice that the following week the front bench is

:11:05.:11:11.

packed with women? I think it just increases contempt for the entire

:11:12.:11:16.

rocket. It is an issue where Labour seem to have pulled ahead of the

:11:17.:11:19.

other parties. We are being told that 50% of candidates in their 100

:11:20.:11:25.

target seats will be female. It looks like the composition of Labour

:11:26.:11:29.

continues to go towards a kind of rough 50-50 split, eventually.

:11:30.:11:35.

Although that is true, I think the faces we see on the telly, Ed

:11:36.:11:40.

Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie, they are almost always men. There is

:11:41.:11:44.

a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female face that goes up a lot. But really,

:11:45.:11:49.

the number of e-mails they put up is proportionally a lot smaller. Is the

:11:50.:11:55.

Miliband team still a men's club? Behind the scenes, it is very

:11:56.:12:01.

blokey. It's been described as a kind of seminar room at a

:12:02.:12:04.

university. I think that is true. The Observer did the cutout and keep

:12:05.:12:11.

of the people behind Mr Miliband. As opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with

:12:12.:12:16.

lots of women in it, it was very male. The one reason Labour have all

:12:17.:12:20.

of these women to put up in constituencies is all women short

:12:21.:12:24.

lists is. If Tories want to change things, I know they can be prone to

:12:25.:12:32.

minute -- and in relation, but they work. In ten years time, I think it

:12:33.:12:41.

will give Labour an immense advantage. By then, I think they

:12:42.:12:48.

will have a woman leader. Who will that be? Potentially somebody not

:12:49.:12:53.

even yet in the Commons. You can see how quickly people can rise to the

:12:54.:12:57.

top, but the Labour Party is going to be increasingly donated by women.

:12:58.:13:05.

Do you think there will be a Labour Leader before Theresa May becomes

:13:06.:13:11.

leader of the Conservatives? I think it is ultimately about Osborne

:13:12.:13:15.

trying to stop Boris. I think I would be astonished if she managed

:13:16.:13:21.

it. The first female Labour Leader? I would pick Rachel Reeves the way

:13:22.:13:25.

it is currently going, she knows her stuff and does well on TV. That is

:13:26.:13:33.

all for this week. We have a week off now. I'll be back in the week

:13:34.:13:38.

after next. Remember, if it is Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics,

:13:39.:13:41.

unless it's a Parliamentary recess.

:13:42.:13:44.

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