Browse content similar to 23/03/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely | :00:35. | :00:42. | |
settled on George Osborne's Budget and, amazingly, for once it hasn't | :00:43. | :00:45. | |
all gone horribly wrong by the weekend. So, is this the election | :00:46. | :00:47. | |
springboard the Tories needed, and where does it leave Labour? Turns | :00:48. | :00:50. | |
out the big Budget surprise was a where does it leave Labour? Turns | :00:51. | :00:54. | |
revolution in how we pay for old age. The Pensions Minister says he's | :00:55. | :00:58. | |
relaxed if you want to spend it all on a Lamborghini. He'll join us | :00:59. | :01:04. | |
later. And could the man with the maracas be on his way to | :01:05. | :01:06. | |
later. And could the man with the Westminster? Bez from the Happy | :01:07. | :01:09. | |
Here: Will the budget kick`start the plan | :01:10. | :01:17. | |
Here: Will the budget kick`start the region's recovery or leave ts | :01:18. | :01:20. | |
lagging further behind? A c`mpaign to | :01:21. | :01:21. | |
stay in Axbridge. Are there ways of making the European arrest warrant | :01:22. | :01:35. | |
work better? -- Uxbridge. And who better to help guide you through all | :01:36. | :01:38. | |
of that than three journalists, who dispense wisdom faster than Grant | :01:39. | :01:41. | |
Shapps calls out the numbers in his local bingo hall over a pint of | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
beer. Yes, they're hard-working and they're doing the things they enjoy. | :01:45. | :01:51. | |
Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan | :01:52. | :01:52. | |
Ganesh. So, George Osborne delivered his | :01:53. | :02:01. | |
fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so many glowing front pages the day | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
afterwards he must be running out of room to pin them up in on his | :02:05. | :02:08. | |
bedroom wall. Although it's probably a pretty big wall. For those of you | :02:09. | :02:11. | |
who didn't have time to watch 3 5 hours of Budget coverage on the BBC, | :02:12. | :02:15. | |
here's Giles with the whole thing in three minutes. | :02:16. | :02:43. | |
Budget days have a rhythm of their own, driven partly by tradition | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
like that photocall at 11 Downing Street and part logistics, how to | :02:48. | :02:50. | |
get this important statement out and explain to those whom it affects - | :02:51. | :02:58. | |
us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget Day is much the same. This ritual | :02:59. | :03:06. | |
red boxery may be the beginning of the end of weeks of work behind the | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
scenes in the Treasury and sets the clock ticking on the process of | :03:11. | :03:13. | |
finding out the answer to one question. You got any rabbits in the | :03:14. | :03:16. | |
box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be something in the Budget we don't | :03:17. | :03:19. | |
know about. Time marches steadily towards the statement and already | :03:20. | :03:22. | |
commentators are hovering over what those potential surprises are. As | :03:23. | :03:28. | |
Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to the Commons, where there is Prime | :03:29. | :03:31. | |
Minister's questions and the Chancellor gets up and does his | :03:32. | :03:37. | |
thing. Once he's on his feet and remembering there is still no copy | :03:38. | :03:40. | |
of the details, the major measures are rapidly highlighted as they come | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
and then put up on screen. A cap on Government welfare spending set for | :03:46. | :03:52. | |
2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax personal allowance raised to | :03:53. | :03:57. | |
?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which ticked boxes for some but was | :03:58. | :04:00. | |
unlikely to make anyone a poster boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p or | :04:01. | :04:06. | |
the froth on the top. And changes to pensions allowing people to take | :04:07. | :04:09. | |
their money out in one lump sum rather than being forced to accept a | :04:10. | :04:18. | |
fixed annual pay-out, or annuity. This is a Budget for the makers the | :04:19. | :04:21. | |
doers and the savers and I commend it to the House. Not everyone can | :04:22. | :04:25. | |
focus on the Budget by listening to what the Chancellor says. We need to | :04:26. | :04:29. | |
get a copy of the script. We do not get that till he sits down. I'm | :04:30. | :04:33. | |
going to go into the House of Commons to get that right now. There | :04:34. | :04:40. | |
will be a response on that and all the other things from Mr Miliband. | :04:41. | :04:43. | |
The Chancellor spoke for nearly an hour but he did not mention one | :04:44. | :04:46. | |
essential fact, the working people of Britain are worse off under the | :04:47. | :04:51. | |
Tories. It is a tricky job answering the Budget at the best of times | :04:52. | :04:54. | |
though some, including Labour MPs, think it is better to mention the | :04:55. | :04:56. | |
Budget when you do. Here we are. I am going to go. I am | :04:57. | :05:05. | |
not the only journalist missing Ed Miliband's speech. Many others leave | :05:06. | :05:08. | |
the Chamber as the Chancellor sits down to attend a special briefing | :05:09. | :05:13. | |
from the Chancellor's advisory team. I am hotfoot to the studio. There is | :05:14. | :05:19. | |
a little more detail to the Budget than the Budget Speech. That detail | :05:20. | :05:22. | |
can be whether words unravel and other interpretations emerge. By now | :05:23. | :05:25. | |
the gaggle of supporters and detractors are taking the debate | :05:26. | :05:33. | |
onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC? Have the Daily Politics packed up? | :05:34. | :05:37. | |
No, we're still standing and, days later, still trying to assess | :05:38. | :05:39. | |
whether the measures announced still seem fresh and appetising or have | :05:40. | :05:43. | |
already gone stale in the minds of voters? | :05:44. | :05:54. | |
How significant are these two poles this morning putting Labour and Tory | :05:55. | :06:05. | |
nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party a good bounce. It was an | :06:06. | :06:11. | |
astonishingly theatrical coup. At first glance, it seems like a huge | :06:12. | :06:15. | |
gift to all people. That is where all of the money has been channelled | :06:16. | :06:20. | |
by this government. They have been ultra-protected, triple locked. | :06:21. | :06:24. | |
Pensioners have done very well and others less well. It is not | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
surprising. Normally a budget which is well received on the day and the | :06:30. | :06:32. | |
day after has unravelled by the weekend. This time, it has not, so | :06:33. | :06:40. | |
far. The dangerous thing for the Labour Party now, George Osborne is | :06:41. | :06:43. | |
the assessment this thing called the baseline. He says, in government, | :06:44. | :06:48. | |
you must control the baseline. The Labour party controlled in 2001 and | :06:49. | :06:54. | |
2005 and he needs to control it next time. He is controlling it on fiscal | :06:55. | :06:57. | |
policy because labour is matching them on everything. The danger for | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
Labour on the big, headline grabbing issue, which was freeing up | :07:03. | :07:07. | |
annuities on pensions, that again Labour was pretty much saying it was | :07:08. | :07:11. | |
going to support it though it were saying it has to be fair and | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
cost-effective. On a big, policy issue, they are following on behind | :07:16. | :07:21. | |
George Osborne. George Osborne is controlling the crucial baseline. | :07:22. | :07:25. | |
Are we in danger of reading too much into the political implications of | :07:26. | :07:33. | |
the budget? The good thing about the pensions policy is, if it does | :07:34. | :07:38. | |
unravel, it will not happen for ten years and, by that time, George | :07:39. | :07:44. | |
Osborne will have left office. Towards the end of his speech, I | :07:45. | :07:48. | |
thought, that is not enough. There is not an idea in your budget which | :07:49. | :07:52. | |
is politically very vivid a year before an election. What I | :07:53. | :07:57. | |
underestimated was, how many frustrated savers that are in the | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
country. There are a lot of people who are frustrated by low interest | :08:02. | :08:06. | |
rates and tax rates on pension pots. This was an explicit gesture for | :08:07. | :08:11. | |
them. That is what has paid off in the polls in the past few days. You | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
spend all of your money on your wardrobe, is that right? The bingo | :08:17. | :08:23. | |
poster was a kind of get out of jail card for Labour. It gave them | :08:24. | :08:28. | |
something to zoom in on. Everyone beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory | :08:29. | :08:32. | |
chairman. We read in the daily Telegraph that the fingerprints of | :08:33. | :08:37. | |
the Chancellor were all over this poster. The Chancellor signed off it | :08:38. | :08:43. | |
-- off on it and so did Lynton Crosby. They referred to working | :08:44. | :08:53. | |
class people as, they are. How did it get into the Telegraph? We can | :08:54. | :08:58. | |
only presume but grant Shapps made it clear that it was not him. We had | :08:59. | :09:04. | |
a time when Labour politicians, we saw from the response of Ed Miliband | :09:05. | :09:07. | |
onwards, they were not quite sure how to react to this budget. A lot | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
of detail had to be absorbed. Suddenly, here is something we can | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
talk about. You can see the thinking behind the poster was very sensible. | :09:18. | :09:27. | |
We are not Tory toffs, we are interested in helping people who do | :09:28. | :09:29. | |
not come from our backgrounds. The wording was awful and played into | :09:30. | :09:36. | |
every cliche. It was all his fault. It shows how unsophisticated he | :09:37. | :09:42. | |
was. There were people from Tory HQ who agreed the budget. A month down | :09:43. | :09:52. | |
the line will the budget look as good? Probably. Once people look at | :09:53. | :09:59. | |
it, pensions are fiendishly conjugated. Once they look and see | :10:00. | :10:02. | |
what it will do with people having to pay for their own care because | :10:03. | :10:06. | |
they can now take capital at their pension, that will come as a shock | :10:07. | :10:09. | |
to a lot of people with small savings. It all be gone on their | :10:10. | :10:18. | |
care. The polling will be neck and neck all the way. In the past, | :10:19. | :10:22. | |
George Osborne has been accused of using his Budgets to tinker at the | :10:23. | :10:26. | |
margins or pull cheap tricks on his political opponents. Perish the | :10:27. | :10:28. | |
thought. But the big surprise in this year's statement was a | :10:29. | :10:31. | |
genuinely radical shake-up of the pensions system that will affect | :10:32. | :10:41. | |
most people who've yet to retire. At the moment, everyone is saving money | :10:42. | :10:45. | |
into a defined contribution pension, that is the type most common in the | :10:46. | :10:51. | |
private sector. They can take 2 % of the pot is a tax-free lump sum when | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
they retire. The rest of the money, for most people, they are forced to | :10:56. | :11:00. | |
buy an annuity, a form of insurance which provide a guaranteed monthly | :11:01. | :11:03. | |
income until they die. Annuities have hardly been a bargain since | :11:04. | :11:09. | |
interest rates were flat slashed following the financial crash. Even | :11:10. | :11:16. | |
with a ?100,000 pension pot would only get an income of ?5,800 a year | :11:17. | :11:21. | |
at current rates. From 2018, pensioners will not be forced to buy | :11:22. | :11:26. | |
an annuity. They can do what they like with their money, even taking | :11:27. | :11:32. | |
the entire pot as a lump some but paying tax on 75% of it. | :11:33. | :11:39. | |
With an average pension pot closer to around ?30,000, pensioners would | :11:40. | :11:47. | |
be more likely to buy a Skoda instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly | :11:48. | :11:53. | |
retired people who take the cash are more likely to spend the money | :11:54. | :11:58. | |
paying off their mortgage, helping a family member to buy a property or | :11:59. | :12:02. | |
investing the money elsewhere. Well, earlier I spoke to the Pensions | :12:03. | :12:05. | |
Minister. He's a Lib Dem called Steve Webb. I began by asking him if | :12:06. | :12:08. | |
he still thought the reforms might lead to pensioners splurging all | :12:09. | :12:15. | |
their savings on supercars. What this reform is about is treating | :12:16. | :12:19. | |
people as adults. For far too long, we have said, we will make sure you | :12:20. | :12:23. | |
save for your old age and then we will control each year how much is | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
spent on what you spend it on. What we are saying is because we have | :12:28. | :12:32. | |
formed -- reformed the state pension, we will be much more | :12:33. | :12:35. | |
relaxed about what people do with their own money. The evidence is | :12:36. | :12:39. | |
that people who have been frugal and saved hard for retirement do not | :12:40. | :12:44. | |
generally blows a lot. They will spin it out. It is treating people | :12:45. | :12:48. | |
as adults and giving them choices they should have had all along. It | :12:49. | :12:54. | |
is a red herring, isn't it? The average pension pot is between 5000 | :12:55. | :13:00. | |
and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an option, correct? I gather only about | :13:01. | :13:08. | |
5000 people a year retiring can buy a flashy Italian sports car. It | :13:09. | :13:11. | |
might be about paying off a mortgage, paying off outstanding | :13:12. | :13:15. | |
debts. Maybe spending more money earlier in retirement when they are | :13:16. | :13:19. | |
fit and able and can enjoy it more. We will give people guidance. We | :13:20. | :13:24. | |
will make sure when they retire there is someone to have a | :13:25. | :13:27. | |
conversation with talking through the implications of spending the | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
money early and options of investing it. This will be a real step | :13:32. | :13:39. | |
forward. Even if you have a much bigger pension pot, say half ?1 | :13:40. | :13:41. | |
million, which is way bigger than the average, even then the marginal | :13:42. | :13:46. | |
rates of tax will be a disincentive to take it all out at once. You will | :13:47. | :13:52. | |
lose huge chunks of it at the 4 % band and then the 45% band. The tax | :13:53. | :13:58. | |
system gives you the incentive to spread it out if the tax threshold | :13:59. | :14:03. | |
is a bit over 10000 and the state pension is a bit over 7000, the | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
first 3000 you draw out in a given year is tax-free. The next band is | :14:09. | :14:17. | |
at 20%. Spreading your money will mean you pay less tax. That is why, | :14:18. | :14:20. | |
in general, people will not blow the lot up front. They will spread it | :14:21. | :14:25. | |
out over their retirement. You have kept this policy quiet. Not even a | :14:26. | :14:30. | |
hint. How did you test it? How did you make sure it would be robust? | :14:31. | :14:36. | |
You did not do a consultation. I have been talking about freeing up | :14:37. | :14:41. | |
the annuity market for a decade The idea of giving people more choice. | :14:42. | :14:45. | |
The government has relaxed rules over this Parliament. It was not a | :14:46. | :14:48. | |
completely new idea. We know in places like Australia and America, | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
people have these freedoms. We already have something to judge it | :14:53. | :15:01. | |
by. We will spend the next year talking to people, working it | :15:02. | :15:03. | |
through. There will be a three-month consultation. I want people to have | :15:04. | :15:06. | |
choices about their own money. There is detail still to be worked out and | :15:07. | :15:11. | |
we are in listening mode about how we implement it. When you announce | :15:12. | :15:15. | |
something you cannot do widespread consultation, for the reasons I have | :15:16. | :15:20. | |
given, you do run the risk of unforeseen consequences? Pension | :15:21. | :15:23. | |
companies this morning are indicating, you, the government can | :15:24. | :15:26. | |
write you are looking for ?25 billion of infrastructure investment | :15:27. | :15:34. | |
from us. You hold our shell below the water line. That may not happen. | :15:35. | :15:41. | |
We spoke internally about the implications for instruction -- | :15:42. | :15:57. | |
infrastructure. It seems to me there will still be long-term investments. | :15:58. | :16:05. | |
Many people want to turn their whole pot into an income. I understand the | :16:06. | :16:10. | |
insurance companies are lobbying, but I'm convinced there will still | :16:11. | :16:13. | |
be plenty of money for investment and infrastructure. If the | :16:14. | :16:18. | |
Chancellor's pro-savings measures work, that will generate more | :16:19. | :16:26. | |
savings. With no requirement now to buy an annuity, surely it is the | :16:27. | :16:30. | |
case that pension pots are another ordinary savings fund, so why should | :16:31. | :16:38. | |
they continue to get favourable tax treatment? Bear in mind that a lot | :16:39. | :16:44. | |
of the tax treatment of pensioners is tax deferred so most people pay | :16:45. | :16:48. | |
tax at the standard rate. If they put money into a pension, they don't | :16:49. | :16:54. | |
pay tax when they earn it, but they do at retirement. We do want, we | :16:55. | :17:02. | |
will still have automatic enrolment into workplace pensions, we do want | :17:03. | :17:08. | |
people to build up, because at age 20 and 30 nobody thinks about | :17:09. | :17:14. | |
retirement. It is still vital that people do reach retirement to have | :17:15. | :17:18. | |
these new choices with a decent sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax | :17:19. | :17:25. | |
breaks because they were supposed to provide an income in retirement | :17:26. | :17:29. | |
that is how it was structured, but that is no longer a requirement | :17:30. | :17:35. | |
surely that undermines the case that if they get tax breaks, other forms | :17:36. | :17:42. | |
of savings should get tax breaks. Other forms do get tax breaks, of | :17:43. | :17:53. | |
course. The return with ISAs is tax free. The point with pensions is | :17:54. | :17:59. | |
that you are simply deferring your earnings. There is a bit when high | :18:00. | :18:08. | |
tax rate payers get a kick when they are working and then retire on | :18:09. | :18:13. | |
standard rate, so there is the issue of the top getting too many tax | :18:14. | :18:18. | |
breaks, but the basic principle that you pay tax when you get the income | :18:19. | :18:24. | |
seems right to me and isn't affected by these changes. You have announced | :18:25. | :18:29. | |
save friendly measures, are we right to look at them as a consolation | :18:30. | :18:34. | |
prize because savers have suffered from the Government's policy of | :18:35. | :18:38. | |
keeping interest rates abnormally low? It is certainly the case that | :18:39. | :18:43. | |
very low interest rates have been a huge boon to people of working age | :18:44. | :18:50. | |
with mortgages, and people who have retired said they thought they could | :18:51. | :18:53. | |
have got a better deal on their savings. I think there is a | :18:54. | :18:58. | |
recognition that whilst we have done the right thing with pensioners on | :18:59. | :19:03. | |
the state pension, we have brought in the triple lock, and many will | :19:04. | :19:15. | |
bent on -- benefit from these changes. Why don't savers who are | :19:16. | :19:20. | |
not pensioners get the same help? They have been hit by low interest | :19:21. | :19:26. | |
rates as well. Those of working age, many of them say they have | :19:27. | :19:31. | |
benefited from low interest rates was predominantly people in | :19:32. | :19:38. | |
retirement have not had the benefit. Obviously people of working age will | :19:39. | :19:45. | |
have benefited from the tax allowance so it is a myth to say the | :19:46. | :19:54. | |
Budget was all about pensioners And yet even when the Office for Budget | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
Responsibility takes into account your new measures, it still shows | :19:59. | :20:01. | |
that over the next five years households will save less and less, | :20:02. | :20:08. | |
indeed the savings ratio falls by 50%. You haven't done enough. One of | :20:09. | :20:14. | |
the things we know is that the economy is picking up strongly, and | :20:15. | :20:19. | |
as we have more confidence about the future they will be more willing to | :20:20. | :20:22. | |
consume now, so without these measures it may be that the saving | :20:23. | :20:27. | |
rate would have fallen further. We want people to save and spend, it is | :20:28. | :20:35. | |
about getting the right balance As the economy picks up, people will | :20:36. | :20:38. | |
want to spend more of their money and it is about getting the balance | :20:39. | :20:44. | |
right. You make the point that if people are little profligate with | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
their private pensions, they will have the state pension to fall back | :20:49. | :20:52. | |
on and it will be higher than it has been, but it is also the case that | :20:53. | :20:57. | |
in these circumstances they will still be entitled to housing benefit | :20:58. | :21:03. | |
and even to perhaps some council tax benefit as well. Do you know by how | :21:04. | :21:09. | |
much this could put the welfare bill up? We think the impact will be | :21:10. | :21:14. | |
relatively modest because the sort of people who save for a pension and | :21:15. | :21:18. | |
make sacrifices while they are at work are not the sort of people who | :21:19. | :21:25. | |
get to 65 and decide to blow the lot for the great privilege of receiving | :21:26. | :21:29. | |
council tax benefit or housing benefit. There will be people on the | :21:30. | :21:31. | |
margins and benefit. There will be people on the | :21:32. | :21:43. | |
who retire with some capital want to put some money away for their | :21:44. | :21:46. | |
funeral. People like to save even into retirement so the myth of the | :21:47. | :21:51. | |
spendthrift pensioner I don't believe. I think this has been | :21:52. | :22:00. | |
rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a Lamborghini yourself? If you turned | :22:01. | :22:06. | |
the camera around you would see my 2-door Corsa! | :22:07. | :22:19. | |
What's your favourite thing about an election? Could it be the candidates | :22:20. | :22:22. | |
ringing on your door while you're having dinner? The leaflets piling | :22:23. | :22:25. | |
up on your doormat? Or the endless adverts aimed at hardworking | :22:26. | :22:27. | |
families? Well, if you thought that was bad enough, then you might want | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
to consider going overseas for the 2015 election because the parties | :22:32. | :22:34. | |
are going to be aiming their message at you like never before. Adam's | :22:35. | :22:39. | |
been to Worcester to find out more. One of the most famous political | :22:40. | :22:44. | |
figures in history lived here, she is called Worcester woman. She was | :22:45. | :22:48. | |
in her 30s, working class with a couple of kids, aspirational yet | :22:49. | :22:53. | |
worried about quality of life. But she wasn't a real person, she was a | :22:54. | :22:58. | |
label for the kind of voter new Labour were trying to reach and she | :22:59. | :23:02. | |
was later joined by Mondeo man and several others. Doesn't that all | :23:03. | :23:09. | |
seem a bit 90s? The technique, called segmentation, was used by | :23:10. | :23:16. | |
George Bush in 2004. Then refined by Barack Obama. Rather than focusing | :23:17. | :23:20. | |
on crude measures like cars and hometowns, they delved into the | :23:21. | :23:26. | |
minds of voters. It is not just women, not just people who live in | :23:27. | :23:30. | |
cities, but if you start to put together these groups of people you | :23:31. | :23:36. | |
can even in an anecdote or way imagine who they are, what types of | :23:37. | :23:45. | |
language and imagery might relate to them. We have been given access to a | :23:46. | :23:50. | |
new polling model being used here by this firm, which is pretty close to | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
the one we are told is being used by the Tories. It carves the country | :23:57. | :24:00. | |
into six personality types, and we are trying it out on Worcester woman | :24:01. | :24:05. | |
and wast of man. We are using an online quiz to work out who is in | :24:06. | :24:12. | |
which segment. Meet new monk, Susie. She feels well represented. I | :24:13. | :24:21. | |
know the Budget and the increases to childcare, I think at the moment I | :24:22. | :24:27. | |
am fairly represented. This puts her in the category of optimistic | :24:28. | :24:31. | |
contentment, people who feel they are doing OK. Terry, on the other | :24:32. | :24:37. | |
hand, isn't happy about Britain today. Health and safety and all | :24:38. | :24:45. | |
that! I hardly recognise the country a living in any more? Yes. Are you | :24:46. | :24:55. | |
ready for the result? He is Mr comfortable nostalgia, they tend to | :24:56. | :25:00. | |
favour the Tories and UKIP. They dislike the cultural changes they | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
see as altering Britain for the worst. That sums me up. Tony is | :25:06. | :25:10. | |
worried as well but feels much less secure. I look forward to the future | :25:11. | :25:22. | |
with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety. Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist. | :25:23. | :25:32. | |
His category is... You feel a bit insecure, you think the Government | :25:33. | :25:38. | |
could probably help you more? Yes. Labour picks up a lot of these | :25:39. | :25:43. | |
voters. This man is being asked to do more and more at work, but he is | :25:44. | :25:52. | |
getting less and less. I am getting more towards the despair side. | :25:53. | :25:57. | |
Things are getting tougher, generally? It puts him into the | :25:58. | :26:02. | |
segment called long-term despair, people who feel left out. Finally, | :26:03. | :26:11. | |
this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am a bit of an idealist. Her idealism | :26:12. | :26:20. | |
makes her a cosmopolitan critic I am a liberal person. Apparently a | :26:21. | :26:25. | |
lot of the media fit into this category as well. There is one group | :26:26. | :26:31. | |
of voters we have not come across, people who show calm persistence. | :26:32. | :26:34. | |
They hope things will get better but don't expect them to. They are | :26:35. | :26:39. | |
coping, rather than comfortable Presumably they are all out of work. | :26:40. | :26:44. | |
Which group are you win? You can take the poll on the BBC website, | :26:45. | :26:49. | |
and in the coming weeks we will be doing our own polling using the six | :26:50. | :26:54. | |
segments to see of the politicians really have worked out how we think. | :26:55. | :27:01. | |
And as Adam said, if you want to try the survey for yourself, you can go | :27:02. | :27:05. | |
to the BBC website and click on the link. | :27:06. | :27:07. | |
And we're joined now by the pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to | :27:08. | :27:17. | |
Sunday Politics. We have had Worcester woman, Worcester man, is | :27:18. | :27:23. | |
this any different? It is a recognition that or politician - | :27:24. | :27:39. | |
all politics these days is like this. It enables them to cut them | :27:40. | :27:47. | |
more finally. You think all politics is coalition politics, you think | :27:48. | :27:51. | |
they have to put together these groups of people, not that the Lib | :27:52. | :27:58. | |
Dems will always be in power? No, and if you listen to the coverage | :27:59. | :28:03. | |
these days you might think it is about grumpy old men on the one hand | :28:04. | :28:09. | |
with Guardian readers on the other. It is far more complicated than | :28:10. | :28:13. | |
that, there is a lot of churning going on underneath which is driven | :28:14. | :28:20. | |
by people's value systems. A lot of this has been pioneered in the | :28:21. | :28:24. | |
United States, very sophisticated on their election techniques, and in | :28:25. | :28:28. | |
Britain we are always the first to grab whatever the New Year will is | :28:29. | :28:34. | |
from America. How do you think this will translate to this country? I | :28:35. | :28:39. | |
think it means that if you are target photo you will still get the | :28:40. | :28:44. | |
same of leaflets and people calling, but you will probably have different | :28:45. | :28:47. | |
kinds of conversations because people on the other side, the party | :28:48. | :28:54. | |
campaigners, will think they know more about you. Will I know who you | :28:55. | :29:00. | |
are? If I am a party campaigner will I know, looking down the | :29:01. | :29:05. | |
street, who fits into which category? You will be able to | :29:06. | :29:09. | |
approximate that with all of the other data that you have gathered | :29:10. | :29:14. | |
through polling, or doing local campaigning, that is the idea to | :29:15. | :29:18. | |
make sense of this vast quantity of data people have about voters. We | :29:19. | :29:25. | |
asked our panel to fill in your survey. Nick is optimistic | :29:26. | :29:31. | |
contentment, 99%. He was 1% cosmopolitan critic, which is how he | :29:32. | :29:36. | |
keeps his job at the Guardian. Polly's job could not be more | :29:37. | :29:41. | |
secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics, and Janan Ganesh, optimistic | :29:42. | :29:45. | |
contentment, which is what you would contentment, which is what you would | :29:46. | :29:48. | |
expect from a financial Times columnist. What do you make of this | :29:49. | :30:05. | |
technique? Why are you only 99? It sounds really clever. 95% of the | :30:06. | :30:15. | |
population five years ago voted Labour or the Conservatives. We have | :30:16. | :30:19. | |
got away from that. It is coalition politics. You need sophisticated | :30:20. | :30:25. | |
methods. Presumably you must not lose touch with basic points. You | :30:26. | :30:32. | |
said it was used in the US presidential elections. Wasn't there | :30:33. | :30:37. | |
them moment emit Romney 's sweet when the initial response was, we | :30:38. | :30:42. | |
did not know the sort of people voted. His next response was, we did | :30:43. | :30:45. | |
did not know the sort of people not know these people existed. | :30:46. | :30:50. | |
Unless you know about certain key demographics, you are wasting your | :30:51. | :30:56. | |
time. Is it important in modern campaigning? I think it is useful | :30:57. | :31:03. | |
because it is about attitude. We have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn. | :31:04. | :31:13. | |
It does not tell us very much. What people think and feel may be | :31:14. | :31:17. | |
different to their income. You can be quite a high earner and anxious. | :31:18. | :31:22. | |
You can be quite a low earner and feeling aspirational and optimistic | :31:23. | :31:25. | |
about the future. I think this does get something else. In days gone by, | :31:26. | :31:33. | |
particularly in America, overwhelmingly, if you are in the | :31:34. | :31:38. | |
better of segment, you would be Republican and the blue-collar | :31:39. | :31:41. | |
workers and some academics and Liberals voted Democrat. In the last | :31:42. | :31:46. | |
election, the richest 200 counties in America voted Democrat. That is | :31:47. | :31:50. | |
an attitude thing. Income does not tell you how people will vote. There | :31:51. | :31:56. | |
support for the Republicans. It is support for the Republicans. It is | :31:57. | :32:01. | |
unavoidable. Add a time when people no longer identify with ideologies | :32:02. | :32:05. | |
or class blocks, you have to go the temperament and lifestyle and | :32:06. | :32:19. | |
manageable. In America there were 128 segments according to lifestyle | :32:20. | :32:21. | |
manageable. In America there were and Outlook. Once you get to that | :32:22. | :32:26. | |
stage, it becomes close to useless. We were talking about the budget | :32:27. | :32:31. | |
earlier. What other polls saying about the budget? The lead of labour | :32:32. | :32:39. | |
has been narrowed over the Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne | :32:40. | :32:47. | |
and Cameron as an academic team have always had a lead over Miller band | :32:48. | :32:53. | |
and Balls. This week it is about economic management. -- over Mr | :32:54. | :32:55. | |
Miller band. Thank you for being with us | :32:56. | :33:11. | |
It's just gone 11:30am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say | :33:12. | :33:15. | |
goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now for Sunday Politics | :33:16. | :33:16. | |
The economic recovery is helping all Scotland. Coming up here in | :33:17. | :34:09. | |
The economic recovery is helping all regions of the UK. Not just the | :34:10. | :34:14. | |
south`east. That is according to the Conservative party chairman, Grant | :34:15. | :34:18. | |
Shapps. He's a man who causdd storm this week by Tweeting this `dvert | :34:19. | :34:31. | |
about bingo and the attacks, That was criticised as "condescending" ` | :34:32. | :34:34. | |
even by his own coalition p`rtners ` among them Redcar MP Ian Sw`les As | :34:35. | :34:38. | |
for Mr Shapps, he was on a visit to Carlisle on Friday, and was | :34:39. | :34:41. | |
unrepentant about his comments. We can all argue about whether the | :34:42. | :34:44. | |
words are "they", "us", or whatever. Personally, I drink beer and I love | :34:45. | :34:48. | |
a game of bingo. I just don't see why they think this is more | :34:49. | :34:51. | |
important than talking about the long`term economic future of our | :34:52. | :34:54. | |
country. Supporting sectors like bingo, by halving the tax, local | :34:55. | :34:57. | |
pubs, where we are helping them to stay open. That is more important | :34:58. | :35:01. | |
and we have had heard nothing about it from Labour at all. All they want | :35:02. | :35:05. | |
to do is talk about the trivia, rather than the real issues. There | :35:06. | :35:14. | |
has been criticism of this because the perception is that the lask | :35:15. | :35:18. | |
slipped. It is what they, the proles, as in the north`east, | :35:19. | :35:25. | |
perhaps, won. This is a storm in a teacup generated by the Labour | :35:26. | :35:29. | |
Party. As we saw on Wednesd`y we had Ed Miliband who had nothing to say | :35:30. | :35:32. | |
about the substance of the budget, and this is a distraction t`ctic to | :35:33. | :35:40. | |
try and get away from the f`ct that they do not have a response to the | :35:41. | :35:43. | |
budget. On the other hand, we saw George Osborne, the Conserv`tive | :35:44. | :35:49. | |
Chancellor, give a good budget for savers, doers and makers. And they | :35:50. | :35:57. | |
can see what he has done about the long`term economic prospects. You | :35:58. | :36:02. | |
are completely relaxed about the bingo and beer? If you look at the | :36:03. | :36:07. | |
substance, there was nothing wrong with halving the tax on bingo halls | :36:08. | :36:10. | |
full stop they are under vast pressure. Some have come out and | :36:11. | :36:13. | |
said that they will be able to remain open and with regard to the | :36:14. | :36:18. | |
beer industry, it is not just 1p off pint, the loss of jobs dependent on | :36:19. | :36:26. | |
it. The headlines have been pretty good on this, apart from th`t, on | :36:27. | :36:31. | |
the budget, but not for Ed Liliband, for instance. It is churlish not to | :36:32. | :36:39. | |
welcome some help for bingo and for the beer industry, but the Labour | :36:40. | :36:44. | |
criticism has been more fundamental. This is a budget delivering for a | :36:45. | :36:47. | |
certain section of the population, not benefit of the country, and in | :36:48. | :36:53. | |
particular, it did not give us the investment that we need to see in | :36:54. | :36:56. | |
the North East, if the economy is to grow. Well, let's look at the | :36:57. | :37:04. | |
economic impact of the Budgdt in a bit more detail. The steel `nd | :37:05. | :37:07. | |
chemical industries on Teesside will benefit, thanks to tax relidf on | :37:08. | :37:10. | |
heavy energy users. But what about smaller manufacturers? Mich`el | :37:11. | :37:13. | |
Tuddenham runs a business m`king kitchen and bathroom units hn | :37:14. | :37:15. | |
Longtown near Carlisle. He believes the Budget will help create more | :37:16. | :37:18. | |
opportunities for young people. We took a 16`year`old on just `fter the | :37:19. | :37:26. | |
summer holidays last year. From a local high school. And with the | :37:27. | :37:36. | |
national insurance being taken out forunder 21s, that is very positive | :37:37. | :37:39. | |
for the younger generation, basically. And I think employers | :37:40. | :37:42. | |
will react to that and bringing down the unemployment among the xounger | :37:43. | :37:45. | |
generation will be a positive step. Energy costs, there has been a cut | :37:46. | :37:49. | |
on the carbon tax. This feeds into the electricity costs, etc. | :37:50. | :37:59. | |
Obviously, energy use, lighting edge banding, power units, ht is | :38:00. | :38:02. | |
something that we look at closely. So, all in all, I was very positive | :38:03. | :38:06. | |
towards the budget. So at ldast one business in Cumbria thinks the | :38:07. | :38:09. | |
Chancellor's on the right lhnes But let's talk now to the regional | :38:10. | :38:13. | |
secretary of the TUC, Beth Farhat. Many business organisations have | :38:14. | :38:17. | |
welcomed this. Is this delivering for businesses and for young people | :38:18. | :38:22. | |
looking for jobs? That is good, the work that they are doing to support | :38:23. | :38:27. | |
small businesses are taking on more apprenticeships, but the budget put | :38:28. | :38:31. | |
forward a couple of measures that we would support, more investmdnt and | :38:32. | :38:37. | |
support for manufacturing. That comes at a time when we havd got | :38:38. | :38:43. | |
3000 fewer managed `` manuf`cturing jobs in the north`east and the dead, | :38:44. | :38:48. | |
in 2010. We have a little bht of time to wait for that because it is | :38:49. | :38:55. | |
in the next Parliament. Raising of the personal allowance, this was | :38:56. | :38:57. | |
tabled as a policy that is going to help low`paid workers, but the | :38:58. | :39:01. | |
reality is that it will be liddle income and high income earndrs that | :39:02. | :39:05. | |
will benefit from it most. The fundamental thing that the budget | :39:06. | :39:10. | |
did not tackle was the living standards crisis. When I talk to | :39:11. | :39:13. | |
workers, that is the real issue for them. It did not talk about the | :39:14. | :39:18. | |
living wage and Fairplay. It talked about bingo and beer. `` fahrer pay. | :39:19. | :39:30. | |
The lifting of the tax threshold has been significant and will lhft a lot | :39:31. | :39:37. | |
of people out of tax. You c`nnot be churlish about that, even if it | :39:38. | :39:40. | |
helps people further up the chain as well. It will give low incole | :39:41. | :39:46. | |
earners to hundred pounds annually. And it will increase the VAT | :39:47. | :39:53. | |
anthrax, so the devil is in the detail. Can I tell you something | :39:54. | :39:57. | |
about north`east workers? They are ?1300 a year worse off in rdal | :39:58. | :40:04. | |
terms. That is the equivalent to 23 average weekly shops, one ydar's | :40:05. | :40:09. | |
worth of energy bills for the average household. But they are | :40:10. | :40:13. | |
getting back to work, the fhgures suggest this week. No. Unemployment | :40:14. | :40:21. | |
fell? Yes, but the quality of the jobs, zero hours contracts, eight | :40:22. | :40:26. | |
out of ten private sector jobs are created in the cell. The jobs that | :40:27. | :40:30. | |
we see created are predomin`ntly in low`paid sectors. We have got | :40:31. | :40:35. | |
families on low`paid incomes with more money going out than they can | :40:36. | :40:39. | |
coming in, relying on zero hours contracts and payday loans | :40:40. | :40:52. | |
companies, so that is a problem There was a difference in the | :40:53. | :40:55. | |
recovery. It is more accents rated in the South than in the North. Is | :40:56. | :41:01. | |
anything being done to addrdss that? You referred to the unemploxment | :41:02. | :41:06. | |
statistics. It fell in the north`east at the highest r`te | :41:07. | :41:08. | |
compared to anywhere else in the country. It is important th`t we are | :41:09. | :41:12. | |
seeing things moving in the right direction. We have got plenty more | :41:13. | :41:20. | |
to do. What was in the budgdt specifically to help the north`east? | :41:21. | :41:25. | |
The increase in the personal allowance takes 14,000 people in the | :41:26. | :41:27. | |
north`east out of paying income tax altogether. It has delivered 1 | :41:28. | :41:32. | |
million people a tax cut. This will help relieve the pressure is on | :41:33. | :41:37. | |
budgets. And freezing the ftel duty escalator, if Labour had bedn in | :41:38. | :41:42. | |
government, the fuel duty would be 20p higher per litre. If we look at | :41:43. | :41:48. | |
jobs as well, this is where the Labour Party does not appreciate, | :41:49. | :41:51. | |
but people are better in work than out of work. We have seen 1.4 | :41:52. | :42:00. | |
million more jobs created. The point is, the cost of living and frozen | :42:01. | :42:06. | |
fuel duty, you make beer and fuel duty, you bring people out of tax, | :42:07. | :42:10. | |
surely that is the way to t`ckle it. Labour is proposing to freeze energy | :42:11. | :42:16. | |
bills until 2017 and reduce business rates for small businesses, and give | :42:17. | :42:20. | |
all young people are job through the jobs guarantee. We would be doing | :42:21. | :42:24. | |
much more to support the economy. There were no measures in this | :42:25. | :42:29. | |
budget to help the North East. No specific understanding... W`s of | :42:30. | :42:36. | |
chemical industries and stedl industries on these side will | :42:37. | :42:44. | |
benefit massively. `` lots of industries on Teesside. We still | :42:45. | :42:49. | |
need specific measures to rdbalance the economy and support trahning. We | :42:50. | :42:55. | |
are seeing support pouring `cross the piece. We are saying th`t some | :42:56. | :42:59. | |
areas need more assistance to get the economy fully buoyant, than | :43:00. | :43:03. | |
others, and we need to see lore investment in the North East. At the | :43:04. | :43:08. | |
moment 3% of investment frol this government is coming into the | :43:09. | :43:14. | |
north`east. Some businesses wanted investment in infrastructurd in the | :43:15. | :43:20. | |
north`east. There was none. The manufacturing organisations have | :43:21. | :43:24. | |
welcomed the ?7 million worth of investment. They have already said | :43:25. | :43:29. | |
that that is when to generate both and potentially lots more jobs. So | :43:30. | :43:35. | |
it doesn't matter about the infrastructure investment? What we | :43:36. | :43:39. | |
saw the day after the budget, we have seen a touchy moving their | :43:40. | :43:44. | |
headquarters to London, gendrating 750 jobs in the north`east. That | :43:45. | :43:48. | |
could see the North East become a world centre for building Hhgh Speed | :43:49. | :43:51. |