30/03/2014 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria

Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

Can Ed Davey keep the lights on Can he ever deliver cheaper power? Or

the investment our energy market badly needs? We'll be asking the

Energy Secretary. Why has the anti-independence Better

Together campaign suddenly got the jitters? We'll be quizzing Scottish

Secretary Alistair Carmichael. And whatever happened to the BNP?

in the north`east and Cumbrha we as They could be

in the north`east and Cumbrha we as the Scottish Nationalists if

independence as a threat or an opportunity to

which runs the capital's Fire Service. The Mayor has a political

move designed to silence his critics.

And with me, as always, the most useless political panel in the

business, who we're contractually obliged to insult on a weekly basis.

But not today, because they are our chosen ones. They are the brightest

and the best, we've even hired a plane to prove it: Helen Lewis,

Janan Ganesh and Nick Watt who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

Right, left and centre of the Westminster Establishment have been

unanimous in saying there would be no chance of monetary union with the

rest of the UK for an independent Scotland. Then an unnamed minister

spoke to our Nick saying that wasn't necessarily so, and that made the

Guardian's front page. The SNP were delighted and the anti-independence

campaign rushed to limit the damage. The faux pas has come at a time when

the Better Together side was already beginning to worry that things were

going the Nationalists' way. Let's speak to a leading light in that

campaign, Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael, who's in

Aberdeen at the Scottish Liberal Democrat spring conference.

Alistair Carmichael, why is there a sense of crisis now engulfing the no

campaign? I think that is something of an overstatement. What you have

got is, I am getting my own voice played back in my ear. What you have

got here is one story from an unnamed source, a minister who we

are told, we do not know for certain, who has speculated on the

possibility of a currency union actually happening. I do not think

that is helpful but it is not any big deal. You have to measure it

against what we have got publicly named on the record. We have got a

detailed intervention of the Governor of the Bank of England

Mark Carney, outlining all the reasons why a currency union would

not be a good idea. And then you have got independent advice from the

permanent Secretary of the Treasury himself saying actually, this is

such a bad idea, that I would never advise a chancellor to go ahead with

it. You set one against the other and you see that pretty much the

force of argument is very much against those of us who want to

remain in the United Kingdom. All the minister was saying is come the

day, if Westminster is negotiating with a new independent Scotland a

deal is to be done, Faslane where the nuclear deterrent is, there is

nowhere else in the UK to put that is, certainly not for the next 0

years, a deal would be done, the nuclear weapons would stay in

Faslane and Scotland would get a monetary union with the rest of the

UK. That is perfectly plausible isn't it? No, I'm sorry, it is

simply not plausible. The economy is more important than anything else.

What you have had here is very clear advice from the treasury officials

saying it is not in the economic best interests of the people of

England Wales, Northern Ireland any more than it is in the interests of

people in Scotland. Where do you put the nukes? The outcome will not

change. Where do you put the nukes when the Nationalists kick you out?

I do not believe that will be a problem because I do not believe

Scotland will vote for independence. But you might be asking the Scottish

Nationalists, who are apparently promoting this, are they then not

sincere when they say they want to remove nuclear weapons from

Scotland? It seems to be a curious mixed message. As you know, I have

not got the Nationalists, I have got you, so let me ask you the

questions. You are widely seen as running a campaign which is too

negative. The Nationalists are narrowing the gap in the poll found

you are squabbling among yourselves. This campaign is going pear shaped,

isn't it? No, let's deal with the polls. All the polls show that the

people of Scotland want to stay as part of the United Kingdom. Yes

there were a couple of polls last week that said the gap was narrowing

a little. The most recent poll of all, the poll on Wednesday which

actually polled people's voting intentions on the question come

September showed that only 28% of people in Scotland were prepared to

say they were voting yes, as opposed to the 42% who were on our side of

the argument saying they wish to remain part of the UK. That poll

said women were skewing towards a yes vote and it showed that the

don't knows were beginning to skew towards a yes vote. That is why you

yourself wrote this morning that if your campaign does not get its act

together, you would be sleepwalking into a split to quote yourself. No,

to quote myself I said it was not impossible that the Nationalists

could win that. That is absolutely the case. The biggest danger for the

United Kingdom camp in this whole argument is people will look at the

polls. They show us with a healthy lead consistently. As a consequence,

they think this will not happen It can happen. I have got to tell

everybody that it could, not least because the Nationalists have an

enormous advantage in terms of the amount of money they have at their

disposal to buy momentum. They will be advertising in cinemas, in

football matches and on social media. We have got to realise what

is coming and as a consequence, we have got to get our arguments in

place and our campaign as sharp as theirs. Thank you for joining us.

Nick, this unnamed minister who gave you the story, did he or she know

what they were doing? I do not think they were sitting there wanting to

blast this out there, because the agreed government position was there

will not be a currency union, if there is a vote for independence.

But what I was managing to get hold of whether thoughts that are in the

deeper recesses of people's minds, when they are looking at the polls

which have been narrowing, or there was Alistair Carmichael quite

rightly says, the pro-UK vote is still ahead. People are looking down

the line, what would happen after the 18th of September this year not

just the next day but the next year, in those very lengthy

negotiations that would take place, when there would be a lot of moving

places on the table. You talked about Faslane, what would happen

then and that is what I managed to get hold of, that there are thoughts

about all those pieces that would be on the table. It is not surprising

that some in Westminster think that. Let's take the Shadow

Chancellor Danny Alexander at his word, they do not want a monetary

union. But if they are faced with giving the Scots a monetary union in

a post-independent Scotland, or having to remove the nuclear

submarines from Faslane, where they have nowhere else to put them,

probably except North America, there is a deal to be done. I think

whatever minister gave Nick his story is probably onto something. If

the Scots vote for independence of course a deal will be done about the

currency because it is not in London's interests to have a

rancorous relationship with Edinburgh. Even if the deal is not

done, how does one country stop another country using its. That is

different. All London can really do is prevent Scottish intervention on

the monetary policy committee. The interest rate would be set without

any regard to the Scottish interest. Even that is only a fatal problem if

the Scottish economy becomes so out of sync with the UK economy. Except

it is a problem for Scotland's financial system because if you go

down that route there is no means of injecting liquidity into the

financial system in the financial crisis. That is why they would

rather have a monetary union. Is it not remarkable to hear the Secretary

of State for Scotland here that the Nationalists are spending too much

money, when he represents a campaign which brings together all the major

parties in the UK and all the resources of the UK and he is

bleating about the Nationalists having more to spend? I did think

that was a funny line and it was in the Observer. It lays into Alex

Salmond's plucky upstart idea that he's taking on this big

establishment. I thought it was a bizarre open goal, I am losing my

football metaphors, forgive me. The polls are so in favour of a no

vote. But the trend has been going their way. We have six months left

which is not enough to close the gap. They always tell you Alex

Salmond is a strong finisher. The plucky upstarts have this funding

from a millionaire. The Better Together campaign are being

incredibly cautious about where they get their money from. They do not

want to go to the City of London Police say, give us a couple of

million. Being Energy Secretary used to be a

bit of a dawdle, especially when North Sea oil was flowing. Now it's

very much a hot potato as Ed Davey has been finding out the hard way.

High household energy bills have been top of his inbox. The big six

energy companies account for 95 of the market. Off Johnson -- Ofgem

said there had been possible tacit coordination in the timing of price

rises and ordered an investigation by the competition and markets

authorities which will look at whether the big six should be broken

up. Where does that leave investment? The boss of Centrica

made the point that you would not spend money building an extension if

you knew in two years time your home might be bulldozed. The spare

margin, that is what is left in the generating system to cope with a

surge in demand on a cold winter's night, is due to drop to

historically low levels in 2016 according to Ofgem. Normally at

around 15%, capacity could drop to 2% after the next election and that

could lead to a surge in the sale of candles. Now where is that light

switch? Energy Secretary Ed Davey, joins me

now. Oh, we have found the light switch! The gap between a peak

winter demand and generating capacity could possibly reach 2

next winter or the winter after We will keep the lights on, that is for

clear. When we came to power, energy investment had been relatively low.

The Labour Party had failed to deal with the energy deficit. From day

one we have been pushing up massively. Investment has been

billion a year. Last year was a record. Spare capacity is now

heading to 2%. Why are you allowing it to get that no? Because we have

been increasing investment massively, last was a record level,

we will be able to keep the lights on. Some of the figures you are

showing suggests we are not doing anything. We have not only done

enough in our last three years, we have put in measures to stimulate

huge amounts of extra investment. We have the healthiest pipeline

investment in our history. We will come onto investment in a minute.

None of that change is the fact that we will be close to 2% next winter

or the winter after that. We have one major power station shut down,

or a cold winter away from having major problems with energy supply.

It is still 2%. Let me explain. The figures assume we are not doing

anything but we are doing something. Look at the National Grid. They are

able to bring in energy from interconnector is because we are

connected up to Europe. They are able to create a reserve so if we

get to problems, they will have a mothballed plant they can bring on.

You have not agreed with anybody on that. The decision was taken last

July. But no supplier has agreed to under mothball its plant. We would

not expect them to do that yet. Our plan is in place. On time, on

schedule, as we already thought it would be. But you have not got a

single agreement with a power supply who has mothballed plant to on the

ball it. We did not expect to. Our plan is in me National Grid will do

an election to allow those plants to come on. There is a huge amount of

interest. There are gigawatts of power that can come in to come on.

There is a huge amount of interest. There are gigawatts of power that

can come into that auction and we are not other measures we can take

and that is just in the short term. We have a plan for the medium-term.

We will be running the first auction for new capacity. The final decision

will be taken and we have learned lessons from what they do in North

America and other European countries so we can stay minute mothballed

plants and new plants to be built. I am absolutely clear there is not a

problem. You only build 9000 megawatts of new capacity from

2011-13. You have closed almost 22,000 megawatts. Why would you be

so cavalier with a nation's power supply? The last Government was

cavalier because we knew those figures are happening because we've

known for a long time a lot of power plants were coming to the end of

their life, coal power plants, nuclear power plants, and we had to

increase the rate of investment but we... That shows clearly you are

closing twice as much, you have to date, closed twice as much as you

have opened, hence the lack of spare capacity. We knew a lot of them are

coming back for the last Labour Government knew. We have increased

the new so that's increasing significantly, far faster than under

the last Government but also remember, you were very wrong at the

beginning of your clip, margins at 15% are very own usual. They are

historically high. The average margin was 25%. That was wasting a

huge amount of money. But since privatisation, we've had margins

between 5% and 10%. Normally, high margins historically, which is

costly. Now we will have historically low margins. People

have to pay for that, so we make sure the lights stay on, we have a

short-term policy I have described to you, and medium-term policy and a

long-term policy. The long-term policy comes huge investment between

nuclear and optional, policy comes huge investment between

on. Ofgem, Independent, says the chance of blackouts by 2016 has

increased fourfold under your watch. What they say, if you read the

report, if we did nothing, they would be problems. But we have been

working with Ofgem. We have been working with National Grid, and we

have agreed that there will be a reserve capacity which can come on

if we get to the peak for the Best not just on the supply side but

demand and into connectors. You talk about industry having to move to

off-peak times. We say, they are prepared to that you paid for it,

and it makes commercial sense for them, it's a sensible thing for the

Wii will pay them to move to off-peak. You have huge diesel parks

for the you talk as if that something new but it's been around

for a long time for the 200 these contracts out there. We want to

expand that. You have hundreds of diesel generators to click into

haven't you? There's a whole range of generators. Diesel generation,

dirty fuel. There's a of mothballed gas which can come. If you look at

the increase of the independent generators, many companies, a range

of power companies who are building a new power station and want to

build new ones. This is a healthy situation. You say you made over 100

billion new investment between now and the end of the decade to restore

capacity and meet renewable targets. Now you have referred the

Big Six to the competition commission, how much of that to

expect to come from them? We will see what the market delivers. We

have always expected independent generators to do a lot more than is

happening in the past. How much from the Big Six? It's not for me to say

it's going to be best from that company. The real interest is we

have huge amounts of companies wanting to invest. If you look at

independent analysis, they say Britain is one of the best places to

invest in energy in the world. We are the worldly do in offshore

wind, one of the best for renewables, one of the only

countries getting nuclear power stations. Rather than the bleaker

picture you're painting, the reverse is the case. We are seeing an

investment renaissance. You say that. Let me give you some facts.

Under this Government, only one gas plant has been under construction,

only one started under your watch for the others were done under

Labour. You have none in the pipeline. The Big Six has pulled

back from further investment including new offshore wind

investment and none of what you re talking about will come before 020

anyway. That's simply not true. The balance reserves I've talked about,

the reserve planned: Making sure the mothballed plant could come on, I

capacity market incentivising new power, will happen way before 2 20,

so that's not true. But doesn't answer the extra capacity. You have

no answer between now and the end of this decade. We have three answers.

Let me repeat them for you. I said permanent, not the short-term ones

you are putting in place to try to do with spare capacity. We have a

short-term plan, of course, that's very sensible. Medium-term plan

auctioning for new power stations. That can lead to both mothballed

plant and when you plant, permanent plant being built, and the long term

plan, to stimulator long-term investment, some of which will be

built and come online way before the end of the decade. I'm afraid, it's

a far rosier picture than your painting. It's also far more

expensive, too. Let's look at how you are replacing relatively cheap

energy with much more expensive sources of energy. Wholesale prices

is ?50 per megawatt. You have done a deal with EDF, nuclear, ?92 50. You

have indexed it for 30 years at 2012 prices.

All of that puts up our bills. First of all, the support of the low

Carbon is just 4% on bills. What has been driving peoples bills over the

last decade has been wholesale gas prices. No one knows what guys

prices are going to be in the future -- gas prices. When you look at the

Ukraine and other market indicators, many people are worried that by the

time nuclear power stations come online for example, the price of gas

could be significantly higher. You have indexed linked that for them by

the time you get any power from this, it'll be up to ?125 per

megawatt hour. The price of gas been going up far higher. Not recently.

Despite Iran, Ukraine, Libya, not recently. The long-term forecast,

Andrew, it's going to go higher but more importantly than that, this is

an area we could disagree on but it's very important that power

plants pay the cost of pollution. In those prizes, all of those prices

except the wholesale out a steep price, you have those power stations

paying the cost of air pollution. If gas and coal where paying the proper

carbon price, you would see nuclear and renewables as competitive. It's

very important that we ensure that power plants pay the cost of the

pollution. When you were last on this programme to talk about this in

May 2012, you said that the price of offshore wind was coming down fast.

You told me it would be down by 30% in the next few years. That figure

is 155, and for the deeper stuff, it's going to be ?165. That's the

first year of a limit control framework which had it coming down.

If you talk to many companies, Siemens had invested with their

partners, ?310 million with two new factories. They are talking about

lower prices because what they are saying to me is that, rather than

the 30% cost reductions I talked about, I was wrong, they are

targeting 40%. You said prices would come down 30% in two years for that

that was 2012 and they have gone higher. I absolutely did not say

that. Your exact quote was 30% in the next few years. Your exact few

years. You said two years, I sell a few years. I haven't changed a

single moment that you said two years, I said a few years. That s

what we are projecting. They will come down. You have to invest in

technology. Let me give you this example. When people invest in

mobile phones to start off with they were expensive, and they were

clunky and the costs were going down for the one final question. You put

the Big Six into investigation because they made a 5% return on

investment and you're done a deal with EDF, nuclear power, which will

guarantee them a return of 10% 15% every year for 30 years. Doesn't

that underline the shambles of your energy policy? You have mixed up two

separate things. The 5% Ofgem are talking about is on the supply

retail side. The percentage you quoted for EDF is in the wholesale

side of two different markets. It's the same return. It's not. You are

comparing apples and pears, dangerous thing to do. You have to

do have a high return but in the retail market, with a 5% stake,

there is less risk, says a low return. Ed Davey, I'm sorry we

haven't got more time. Thank you. Have me back. We will. Whatever

happened to the BNP? The far right party looked as if it was on the

verge of a major breakthrough not so long ago. Now it seems to be going

nowhere. In a moment we'll be speaking to the party's press

officer, Simon Derby. But first here's Giles. His report contains

some flash photography. For a moment in 2009 Nick Griffin and the BNP had

a spring in their step, smiling at their success of winning two seats

in the European Parliament. They already were the second largest

party in a London council and had a London Assembly seat. Despite

concerns from mainstream parties their vote was up. Our vote

increased up to 943,000. Savouring success was brief that morning as

anti-far right protestors invaded and egged the press conference and

forced the BNP MEPs into a hasty retreat. What is more significant is

that, in the years since, that retreat has been matched internally,

electorally and in the minds of those who had given them that vote.

For a number of years they were performing better than the UK

Independence Party and other smaller parties like the Greens and respect.

The problem for the BNP if they didn't make any inroads into other

groups, they didn't go into the middle class, the young, they didn't

go into women and ethnic minorities for obvious reasons. So the party

was quickly handicapped from the outset. Not that you would have

known that at the outset. In 20 6 in Barking and Dagenham, the party won

12 council seats against a back drop of discontent with the ruling Labour

council and Government and picking up on immigration and housing

concerns in the borough. It's because of all the different

nationality people moving in the area, they are taking over

everything. My Nan and grandad lived there all their lives. I thought I

would vote for BNP. Hopefully, yeah, they will get elected over here

When I came to Barking, Dagenham and Redbridge in 2006, the BNP with a

second largest party in one of the local councils. You can even find

non-white people who voted BNP. Now they have no counsellors, and even

though can when you talk to people, you will find among the older white

working-class population concerned that the BNP claim to represent

everyone says they are nowhere. So what happened to that about? On

behalf of all the people in Britain, we in Barking have not just beaten,

that we have smashed the attempt of extremist outsiders. The local

Labour MP was as clear in 2010 as she is now. I always knew if we

could manage to ensure that wasn't a single BNP councillor left on the

council and I won my seat, it would stop the process of disintegration.

But what beat the BNP here in 2 10 was a mobilisation of the Labour

vote. And today it is not hard to find the same discontent over the

same issues. It's just finding a new political home. A couple of years

ago, I used to vote Labour. Obviously, they haven't done nothing

around here as much now, with jobs and unemployment, and housing and

stuff like that about, basically, BNP ain't around here no more. Now

it's more about UKIP and I believe that these UKIP are saying are true.

If I thought BNP would make the difference, I would vote but is not

in the people behind them. They all get bandaged with the same brush.

I'm going to vote UKIP because BNP didn't get anywhere. What they say

in UKIP, with a bit of luck, they will get somewhere. It's not racist

but it's just that our kids haven't got jobs. Nick Griffin's dislike of

UKIP is mutual but his once fellow MEP Andrew Brons who's now left the

party issued a statement to this programme saying BNP failure is

closer to home post 2010. It was after that election discontent arose

amongst sections of the membership. Those members who left or were

thrown out by Nick Griffin had already felt let down by his

appearance on Question Time. It was a national platform for the BNP

something they felt they had the right to through electoral success.

This was no big breakthrough moment for Griffin, unlike it was for John

Marina pen when he appeared on national television in France. He

went on to mobilise a national force. Despite there being some

voters tuned to their message, for the BNP, becoming such a force here

has never looked quite so difficult. And Simon Derby from the BNP joins

me now. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It was not long ago you

had 55 councillors up and down the land, you now have two. You are on

the brink of extinction. That is not true. I have watched the film. It is

very negative as I would expect The party has faced a few problems. The

main thing to bear in mind is that the issues, the problems the country

faces have gone away. We won nearly a million votes in the European

elections. We brought that mandate to the establishment and we were

denied. Let's face it, we would -- were denied any opportunity to take

place in the political apparatus. You have been destroyed by a pincer

movement. UKIP has taken away or more respectable voters and the EDL

is better at anti-Muslim protests and street thuggery. The EDL is not

a political party. I take your point about UKIP. The power structure took

a look at us and so we were a threat to power. We were not making this

stuff up, we meant it and they have co-opted our message. This shameless

promotion of UKIP, you have evenly had him presenting the weather on

this programme. That is unbelievable. That was a joke.

Across Europe, in France, your sister party the National front will

probably do very well. You can see the rise of the far right across

Western Europe so why are you in decline? We are not far right, I

reject that label. How would you describe yourselves nationalists and

Patriots. Why are you in decline and other similar parties to yours are

on the rise? You mentioned Barking and it is very interesting because I

was involved in that campaign. What Margaret Hodge and her Labour Party

did, they replaced the white indigenous population in Barking and

Dagenham with Africans, that is how they won that election. For that was

true, you would be doing well elsewhere. You have now got a leader

who is declared bankrupt and your party is heading for bankruptcy

No, it is not. It is over. You would like that. What I would like is

irrelevant. Your membership is in deep decline. All parties have highs

and lows. In 2009 they said it is no way you will win any seats in the

European election. We did. And then you lost them. Parties win and lose

seats. The Lib Dems will be annihilated. You deny you are far

right. People used to say the BNP were neo-Nazis. Then Nick Griffin

appeared with Golden Dawn. They are not neo-Nazis, they are Nazis. It is

part and parcel of being in politics. You have to appear with

them? Of course we do, we have to speak to ordinary people. I am

perfectly happy speaking to you at the BBC, the BBC have a terrible

reputation but I am happy to be here. Mr Griffin has asked me, when

will the BBC apologised for trying to put him in prison twice, merely

for exposing a Muslim scandal. Why can't Nick Griffin appear on TV and

self? He would not appear. He was in Syria. He literally flew out to

Damascus and prevented a war. We decided we would not interfere in

Syria. The BBC never covered that. Please do not make out we are just

an ordinary political party you cover like everybody else. It is

completely different. All the signs are, membership, performance at the

polls, performance at elections the problem with your leadership is you

are now going the way of the National front, heading for

oblivion. As I said to you before, that may be the case, if all the

problems we had not highlighted and how we got a huge vote so many years

ago, six years ago now, five years ago, in 2009, if they were not

around. These things are only going to get worse. We are looking at a

prototype Islamic republic that is going to be set up in this country.

That will lead to huge problems Only the British National Party are

prepared to say that and deal with it. Word leaked out that I was doing

this interview with you before the weekend. Isn't it a sign of how

irrelevant you now are that not a single person has turned up at New

Broadcasting House this morning to protest? Used to be hundreds would

turn up when we said the BNP were on. That is the left for you, they

put the clocks forward and they could not be bothered to get out of

bed. I think they are still in bed. Thank you.

You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in

Scotland who leave us now for Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up here

Hello and the warmest of welcomes. Coming up fear deep's work for every

day's they. Is a living wagd of ?7 65 an hour something the businesses

in the region afford? I will ask their wrecked some MP. Would an

independent Scotland be a threat or an opportunity? The SNP spe`k to us

from Edinburgh. First, how luch does Labour agree with the coalition

off`line on welfare? The region s MP did vote to put a cap on well first

bending. `` welfare spending. There were some rebels who disagrde on

putting a limit on welfare spending. Graham Morris, yot were

there not for the vote, but she would have joined Labour rebels You

said voting for this dude `` showed that you could be trusted whth

public money. The idea of their benefit cap is built on a ntmber of

myths. It is extremely divisive The idea that somehow people on benefits

are being demonised by the present government, a suggestion solehow

they are immune from what is happening, is not the case. Benefits

have been capped at 1% incrdase When you take into account hnflation

at two x 7% and lost of livhng rises and fuel, people on benefits are

struggling to make ends meet. `` 2.7%. There is a number of ways we

could balance the budget. In relation to housing benefit, which I

think we should call the Lord benefit. The housing benefit bill

has been increasing dramatically. `` landlord benefit. That is bdcause

there are not any rent controls or rent caps. Rents in the private

sector are growing dramatic`lly Those in receipt of housing

benefit, the majority of whom are in work, are calling on greater support

from public funds. A few rebels apart, Labour MPs did vote for a

cap. They have opposed everx cut to spending throughout the Parliament

from 2010 to 2014. You have got to be frank here as Graham said, he

does not agree with his own party leader. The bottom line is theirs,

they would like to keep spending more and more money. The public can

have no trust and anybody who is saying that they would keep spending

on welfare, keep spending on benefits and circumstances when we

are to balance the books. Wd will have to move on in that state. We

will have to disagree. There is a little under six months

ago on whether Scotland dechde on whether to become an independent

country or not. MPs in the region put their arguments against the case

on whether they should becole independent or not. They met the

late `` Labour leadership in the Scottish Parliament. Labour is

offering the Scottish Parli`ment more powers over taxation if they

stay within the UK. Some fe`r greater devolution will put the

North East and Cumbria at a disadvantage when it comes to

attracting jobs. Bridget rejects and says risks come from an inddpendent

Scotland. My concern is what Scotland would become separ`te from

the rest of the United Kingdom. That could have an impact on jobs in the

North East. I think it is ilportant that we recognise the benefhts in

the north eased of Scotland as being part of the United Kingdom, the

shared industry and history that we have, and look on that relationship

and build on it than separate it. Christine Grahame is an SNP member

of the Scottish Parliament `nd she is in Edinburgh for us now. MPs in

the North East say we should be scared of an independent Scotland.

We will be your best friend. First of all, I am sure your listdners

will appreciate, it is a matter for the people of Scotland to ddcide

whether they want to be inddpendent or otherwise. I think that `n

independent Scotland is takhng full control over its affairs, bdcause we

have taken control of our domestic affairs for 15 years, will be an

ally of the North of England, because many of the problems of the

North of England are reflected in the problems in Scotland. I think we

will liberate the North of Dngland to making sure that they thdmselves

will be set about having more power, perhaps in the North of England

assembly. A Scottish governlent would be delighted if they topped ``

took jobs that could have gone to the North East of Scotland. That is

your aim? Scotland has suffdred from this union for a very long time as

has a lot of England. The dhfference for us is that we are a nathon, we

have our own Parliament, we are in a position to do something about it

and becoming independent as a way to do something about it. Therd is also

competition there. Scotland would be delighted if it got jobs th`t could

have gone to the North eased. `` North East. I think the North

East's problems out with thd size of England. `` the South of England. It

is not with problem, it is with the South. That is where there `re

problems come from. You would like to cut corporation tax, cut airport

duty. You want to make yourselves more competitive than the North of

England? There is nothing to stop the rest of the UK doing wh`t an

independent Scotland wants to do. That would be a matter for the

government. In your view, the North of England and Scotland can make

Common Cause? Even now I know that people in Berwick which is close to

the edges of my constituencx and look to the benefits that ddvolution

has brought Scotland. We have no prescription charges, we have no

tuition fees, we have free personal care for the elderly, these are

things that the Scottish Parliament have done that I think are socially

just. I know that people close to the Scottish border can see that.

The challenge for the North of England is to make sure that the

North of England people get what Scotland as an they could ghve

themselves the power to do that Thank you very much for that.

SNP voters `` will hope that voters will plump for independence. What

will the borders look like? The government has hinted there might be

border checkpoints to control immigration, claimed as

scaremongering by nationalists. There could be two sets of

currencies and two different nationalities.

I am driving into another country, there is no passport control,

nothing. This is the intern`tional border between the United Khngdom

that way and the Republic of Ireland just down there. Only the road signs

give you a clue that you have crossed into the Republic of

Ireland. With less than six months to Scotland's referendum, wd could

have one too. What lessons can we win from here? This family shopping

in a town close to the borddr. The shirts give you a clue of their

mixed roots. The closeness of the border means he carries a collection

of different currencies. Yot come into a shop like this, what you see

is that you will get the Sthrling prize and the euro price on the

goods. You can pay for that in sterling or euros. Supporters of

Scotland yesterday and say they would keep the pound. The government

say they cannot. If Scotland does Gratz Durling, he says therd are

lessons here for our governlent ` `` scrap sterling. You could do the

same thing if we had an inddpendent Scotland? If the adapt themselves

and when the exchange rate hs the right way round, they have ` great

of virginity. We are back in Newcastle. We are Northern Hreland,

just up the road from the Rdpublic, but this man does most of hhs

business elsewhere. He does not like dealing into currencies. Thdre is

trouble with getting euros converted everyday if you were going to do the

trade that way. It is easier to deal with UK`based companies on `

sterling basis. They did no business south of the border ten years ago.

In terms of currency fluctu`tions, if we put in for some busindss, we

can end up cheaper across`the`board. That helps us win

new business. When we are btying materials and from across the

border, it can be cheaper for us to buy. This creates a thousand jobs a

year. Business leaders say `n independent Scotland could be

Stourbridge and in the same way My advice is not to fear this border.

Very often we take things for ranted. It could present an

virginity itself. `` and opportunity itself.

A new international border light not mean border guards as well. It could

provide a virginity is for some and extra costs for others.

There is free movement, no guards. There would be a significant change.

Clearly it is a matter for the Scots people to decide. I believe we have

done everything from beating our common foes together. There is no

need for a press of border controls. Your government is scaring people

into believing that is true. There is looser immigration controls. They

would need to negotiate with all youth team `` 28 European

countries. Are you going to insist on there being border guards? An

independent Scotland is different from an Irish country which is part

of the EU. There is a different arrangement and they would have to

negotiate that arrangement. That is no done deal. Other leaders have

made it clear they would not be so welcome. That is to be disptted

Here you have MPs saying we are fine with devolution for Scotland. If

Scotland decides to vote no in this referendum. Would businesses be

worried about it? I have a lot in common politically, his str`w

industrially with Scotland than with other parts of England. ``

historically, industrially. My concern is that particularlx in

terms of what the economic hmpact will be for my region and the people

I represent. Does it matter if it is independence or devolution? Yes it

does. If it is the intention of the independent Scotland to abolish the

airport duty, if it is their intention to reduce corporation tax,

we could find ourselves at ` race to the bottom. I think that wotld be

nine interests. That is up to the North of England to sort out and

lobby London for that power up year. Labour have not made any proposals

to devolve the North East of England. We would be disadv`ntaged

if an independent Scotland dmbarked upon a policy of trying to `ttract

in word investment at her expense. In terms of what we could do to

counter that there is the formation of a strategic association of seven

local authorities. The hope is that they will have more power and

resources to address some of the historic deficiencies about the lack

of transport infrastructure in the North East of England. The reality

is if you are not admitted hnto the EU as was said, there may h`ve to be

border controls because your immigration policy may be dhfferent.

I appreciate, I hope I am not insulting MPs south of the border,

but we have heard this for xears. I know some are joining the ddbate on

independence. It is a nonsense that Scotland would not be part of the

European Union. We have been citizens of it for decades. Much of

it is absorbed into our law. We are a huge producer of oil and gas. I do

believe Europe does not want to turn its back on these assets. I think,

this is another part of the scaremongering which we havd heard

for months. Frankly it has been counter`productive. What yot have is

practical, the same thing whll happen between England and

Scotland, it is all scaremongering. As I say, keep doing it bec`use more

and more Scots are determindd to vote yes the more this is s`id. You

are driving Scots towards independence. I hope not. I hope it

is very much the case that ht is a matter of the heart and head. The

problem is for the North of England. Whatever happens in this

referendum, more powers will head to Scotland independently. You offer

nothing as a counter. Companies in the North East, just as thex showed

in the film, they are perfectly able to compete. They could do bdtter

than the Scottish companies who will be struggling with a more dhfficult

financial situation after bdcoming independent. There is an impact and

it would have potential problems to start with. I believe that the North

East could compete well with Scotland if we were in compdtition.

Thank you very much. Christhne Grahame, thank you very much.

We have heard a lot about cost of living. If you are in work, how much

do you need to make ends medt? The living wage is higher than the

minimum wage which is currently ?6.31. A growing number of

businesses in the North East of violence are decided to pay a higher

rate. `` have voluntarily ddcided. Paying people a living wage means

that people are putting out a better product of product. It is the right

thing to do. Personally and morally, but it is the right thing to do for

business. Several councils `lso support a living wage for their

staff. But not everyone welcomes it. Some say they cannot afford it. My

margin is not big enough to cover those wages at the moment. Ht is

probably less than what I al getting an eye to 80 hours a week. What

about the calls for other elployers to adopt this? I could not `fford to

keep paying it. The money h`s got to come from somewhere.

You support the living wage. You organise that conference. The market

trader is right? On Friday we had this fantastic coming together of

the living wage foundation, myself and various businesses coming

together and celebrating and supporting and selling the living

wage. There are no 20 companies who have registered. These stretch all

across from housing as soon as the agents to significant big companies.

Also third sector organisathons Can any company do this? Any colpany can

do this. We have a tea shop that has signed up to it. Can I and so the

point from the traders point of view. Productivity goes up. Your

staff retention goes up. Yotr 6 s go down if you pay the living wage and

the quality of the output from your staff goes up. Use weak to people

like Barclays `` you speak to people like Barclays, people competed for

those jobs and they enjoyed it. Is it not embarrassing that he has

organised this conference and not yourself? We have had massive

support across the Labour P`rty and across the trade unions that Britain

needs a pay rise. I agree ddal to does. `` that it does. I do think

that with the current cost`of`living crisis, that people are fachng

everyday with energy bills... Private companies can make their own

decisions, when it comes to public bodies, it will be the taxp`yer that

funds the fees. Does the taxpayer not meet the shortfall anyw`y? How

many people in work on low wages are having to claim housing bendfit or

subsidised taxes? Should it be compulsory? I think we should move

towards that. The question of where does the subsidy come from? Are we

content as a nation to subshdise wages, because we do that as well,

we do that through tax credhts, housing benefits. Some of the larger

companies, the compulsion should be amongst larger enterprises who are

well able to be a living wage who don't. Do people when the government

`` argument or does it need compulsion? You do when the

argument. There are more colpanies up and down the country comhng to

believe there should be a lhving wage. Our conference was very small,

there were only 20 accreditdd employers. They have built tp to 600

across the country. Local authorities who have not opted have

seen their sick rebates go down they have seen staff retenthon go up

and people commit more to the business. George Osborne topped

about raising the living wage, but did not raise it as much as he said

he would. `` George Osborne spoke about. It was set by the low pay

commission. Time to look at the other stories making the news.

All in one minute tour. `` this one minute tour.

Dozens of rural doctors surgeries and Cumbria are facing clostre

according to one MP. He used a debate to provide ministers to

provide extra help and warr`nt patient's safety was at risk.

Staying with railways, Jennx Chapman has asked for guarantees th`t

building HS2 will not mean put services on the these `` North East

train line. They are delighted that people in Leeds will soon bd able to

enjoy a good service, too. But they do not want it to happen at the

expense of the North East m`inline. Can he commit that it will not be

the case? We have new rolling stock for the North East mainline.

There is a fire engine to bd lost at this fire station.

That is about it from us. Wd have a special report looking for `

Hillsborough style enquiry to the miners strike 30 years ago. For now,

back to Andrew boundaries. Sorry, run out of time.

Thanks very much indeed. Andrew back to you.

Now let's get more from our political panel. If the BNP

finished? They were never spectacularly successful to begin

with but one of my childhood memories was a huge fuss in London

about the fact that they won a few council seat on the Isle of dogs

back in 1993. That was enough to cause a panic. As if they are

falling from a great tit and I think the big difference with the National

front in France is that they are building on decades of successful

that they finished second in the presence of elections in 2002, I

think. And, even in the 60s, they were versions of their politics So

they are building on a lot whereas the BNP are working with incredibly

few raw materials in this country. It is interesting that the BNP does

seem to be in decline in terms of its membership and financially, but

in France, the far right party, not as far right as the BNP, but pretty

far right, will probably do well in the second round of the French local

elections. You could say the same about Golden Dawn in Greece. Parties

prosper when the picture is pre-rolled for them. If mainstream

parties talk endlessly about immigration, saying you cannot get a

council house because it has gone to an immigrant instead of saying it is

because there are not enough council houses, that creates the conditions

in which the far right can thrive. We are lucky that all the members of

the BNP fell out with each other. As extreme members of the far right and

left do. You can see that with the comedian in France, he has got a lot

of support from people on the left as well. I asked Simon Derby was

here victim of a pincer movement that UKIP were taken away voters and

EDL has captured the Street protest. Yes, and Giles still not mention

that the Labour Party has got its act together. They got the act

together in Dagenham. Margaret Hodge and Jon Cruddas did a very good job.

I think UKIP would say, not a racist party but they are picking up votes

from people who would once have voted BNP. But it is interesting the

difference between Britain and France. Why is it that the Front

Nationale came second in 2002 when they are not far right? I think they

were on a five-year cycle because the next election was 2007. 200

they came second when Jean-Marie Le Pen came second. They are not as far

right as the BNP. Marine has put them -- cleaned them up a bit.

Diplomatically there is a much harder vote which spreads further

across the electorate in France than there is in this country. This is a

much more tolerant country. If Marine Le Pen does well today, she

will not win that many because the centre-right and centre-left will

always gang up against terror in the second round, but it sets the tone

for the European elections. It does and for the next French presidential

election as well. I think what she's doing masterfully is combining a far

right politics with what you might call a far left economic politics.

She's not just picking up votes from xenophobes, she is picking up votes

from who feel victimised from globalisation. They are people who

would be voting for socialists but are put off by the current

president. That is what I do not think the British far right parties

have been able to do. You sort Simon Derby try to tell you that the BNP

are not far right party. I think he was going to say if you look at

issues of protectionism, standing up against globalisation, they are

quite statist. That is where the phrase National Socialist comes

from. That is why a little bit of electoral success is often a killer

for far right parties. They get a few council seats and then they are

rubbish. They are not getting people's bins collected so they

become part of the system that people were voting against in the

first place. Lets go on to the Labour Party. If you are a Labour

Party supporter and you want to be cheered up, you pick up the Sunday

Times where you see a poll where the leader is up to seven points. If you

are Tory Lib Dem and you want to be cheered up, you pick up the

Observer, the left-wing paper, where the Labour leader is still 1%. I

have read in the paper that there is quite a lot of of the record

briefings going on at the top of the Labour Party. Give us a sense of the

mood. Clearly, they are unsettled. One pol looks OK but there has been

a run of polls where there is a lead over the Tories which is closing.

There are worrying number of people who are what are called the 35s and

they are people who thought all the Labour Party needs to do is sit

still because there are a number of Liberal Democrat voters who hate the

coalition. Because the Conservatives did not get through the boundary

changes they needed to win, we can sit tight and it will all be fine.

What a few wise old heads are concerned about is they feel this

has a feel of 1987 about it when the Labour Party was united. They had a

very good leader. The leader was impressive, the party was united and

then what happened? They met the British people and an election. The

British people said, terribly sorry, you are not occupying the party

political territory where we will vote for you. There are some people

from the Blair era who say it feels a bit complacent and there may be a

bit of a shock when they meet the voters. We talk about people being

unsettled but Ed Miliband is not unsettled. His defining

characteristic is you might call it steadiness or you might call it a

lack of agility. He could not respond to the pension stuff in the

budget which was thrown at him. But he's very good at separating the

signal from the noise. They may think this will all change in me.

The Tories may be on the back foot after the European elections. He has

the ability to set the political weather. He did it with the price

freeze. There is no doubt that Mr Davey would not be referring these

energy companies to the competition authorities if it had not been for

that speech by the Labour leader. And we read today he has come up

with another policy which will be attention grabbing to cut student

tuition fees. It is easy to forget that before he announced the price

freeze he was in as much vertical trouble as he is now. I think the

Labour poll lead will expand up to five or 6% by the summer, assuming

the Tories do badly. The question is, is five or 6% enough? Nick

through the analogy with 1987. This reminds me of the Conservatives in

2009/10. You have a steadily sinking poll lead, differences in what

campaign they should be running and personal animosity behind the

scenes. It led to them throwing away an election which seemed to be

winnable. There is an important difference with the 1980s which was

because you did not know when the election would be. Will it be in 87

or 88? They do not need to make up their mind until next year. What

they are telling the pollsters now, we do not like this government

because of course, you do not like the government. But next January or

February they will be making up their minds. Is there a lot of

animosity among the leading Labour figures behind-the-scenes? It must

be personal or tactical because there are not big ideological

differences between them, is there? Yes and no. What is striking is how

little support Miliband gets from the shadow cabinet. He does not have

outriders. That has been a continuous theme. Said he feels he

is on his own? That they feel they do not get support from him. There

was a column by Jenni Russell saying he is distant and detached. And

Andrew Walmsley touched on this in the Observer. One of the divisions

is Ed versus Ed. There is a terrible structural problem between those

two. It is a real problem. Ed Miliband believes Ed Balls has not

done enough to get economic red ability. Ed Balls believes Ed

Miliband is making airy fairy speeches and it will not cut with

the electorate. Neither Mr Cameron nor Mr Miller band took part in the

debate which happened earlier this week between the Lib Dems and UKIP.

We have got another one coming up on the BBC on Wednesday night. Let s

remind ourselves of what happened in last week's debate.

I will ask Nick to open the batting. We are better off in Europe...

Frankly not working any more. A referendum on Europe. I agree with

you. I agree with you. If you can read the small print. Pull up the

drawbridge, pool drawbridge up. . We have 485 million people... It is

simply not true! Not true. Not true. Not true. Identical with Nick. I

don't agree with Nick. Based on facts, facts, the facts, facts, the

facts... Thank God we did not listen to you. The food is getting better

here. Jobs, jobs, jobs, jobs. You have never had a proper job. Great

not little England. Good night. I think it is seven o'clock BBC Two.

Helen, what was the outcome of that and how do we mark our card for this

week? It was not a great time for pundits. Everybody called the debate

for Nick and then they said actually, we think it has gone the

other way. Consensus emerged later on that Nick Clegg made a difficult

argument. I think the most important thing Nigel Farage said was he

distinguished out the immigration policy by saying we're not just

closing day over, we want people to come, we just do not want mass EU

immigration. That is an important thing for him to say to get away

from the echoes of the far right. I suspect Nick Clegg will not ask us

to read the small print. That was 11 turn he took. It compounded his

reputation for being sneaky. I slightly disagree about the pundits.

I say this as someone who thought far it would win. -- Nigel Farage

would win. The fact that the public disagree with you and the public

favoured Nigel Farage does not mean the public were wrong. The question

is, who is going to tune in for the second one? What is the answer to

that? Phil Collins argument is a man who is on 8% is fantastic. It is a

binary choice in this debate. Clearly they need to brush up on

opposite areas. Nigel Farage needs to brush up on facts and Nick Clegg

needs to brush up on the motions because he did not connect very

well. Where Nick Clegg may go after Nigel Farage is when the -- when he

said the EU has blood on its hands with Ukraine. He then came back to

talk about the vanity of EU foreign policy and said European Union had

made what was going on in Syria worse. It is one thing to say I do

not think the UK should be part of the joint European foreign policy,

it is part of another thing to say that Europe which will act with or

without the UK is responsible for blood on the streets of Kiev and

also responsible for exacerbating the Civil War in Syria. Maybe an

hour is too long for Nigel Farage's shtick? That may be the case but

Nick Clegg has precedence. He does that show and he has had to deal

with the worst thing with dealing with what is thrown at him so he has

honed his view consistently. We will see what happens in part two.

That's all for this week. The Daily Politics is on BBC Two at lunchtime

every day this week. I'll be here next week at the usual time of 1

o'clock. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.