25/05/2014 Sunday Politics North East and Cumbria

Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats

say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go

after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a

catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the

UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the

In the North East and Cumbria: We're henhouse.

In the North East and Cumbria: We're live with reaction to all the local

election results. And the market town where residents

are voting on whether to break away from Teesside and join

hall spread, the Liberal Democrats disappeared, UKIP failed to show.

More analysis in just over half an hour.

Cooped up in the Sunday Politics henhouse, our own boot should --

bunch of headless chickens. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The

Liberal Democrats lost over 300 councillors on Thursday, on top of

the losses in previous years, the local government base has been

whittled away in many parts of the country. Members of the European

Parliament will face a similar comment when the results are

announced tonight. A small but growing chorus of Liberal Democrats

have called on Nick Clegg to go. This is what the candidate in West

Dorset had to say. People know that locally we worked

incredibly hard on their councils and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is

perceived to have not been trustworthy in leadership. Do you

trust him? He has lacked bone on significant issues that are the core

values of our party. This is how the party president

responded. At this time, it would be foolish

for us as a party to turn in on ourselves. What has separated us

from the Conservatives is, while they have been like cats in a sack,

we have stood united, and that is what we will continue to do. The

major reason why is because we consented to the coalition, unlike

the Conservatives. We had a vote, and a full conference.

Is there a growing question over Nick Clegg's leadership? Different

people have different views. My own view is I need to consult my own

activists and members before coming to a conclusion. I am looking at

holding a meeting for us to discuss the issue. I have been told by some

people they do not think a meeting is required, they think he should

stay, and other people have decided he should go. As a responsible

Democrat, I should consult the members here before coming to my

conclusions. What is your view at the moment? I have got to listen to

my members. But you must have some kind of you. Because I have an open

mind, I do not think he must stay, I am willing to say I have not made my

mind up. From a news point of view, that is my official position. I can

assure you there is not much news in that! I said earlier I am not going

to say he must go must stay, I am consulting my members. But you must

have some kind of view of your own before you have listened to your

members. There are people who are wrongfully sanctioned and end up

using food banks, I am upset about that, because we should not

allow... I do not mind having a sanctioning system, that I get

constituents who are put in this position, we should not accept that.

I rebel on the issue of a referendum on membership of the EU. I am also

concerned about the way the rules have been changed in terms of how

parents are treated in their ability to take children to funerals out of

school time. There are questions about the leader's responsible T for

those policies. Nick Clegg has made it clear he is a staunch

pro-European, he wants the Liberal Democrats to be in, he does not want

a referendum, if you lose a chunk of your MEPs tonight, what does that

say about how in June you are with written public opinion? There are

issues with how you publish your policies. I do not agree 100% with

what the government is doing or with what Nick Clegg says. I do think we

should stay within the EU, because the alternative means we have less

control over our borders. There is a presentational issue, because what

UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse in terms of control of borders,

which is their main reason for wanting to leave, which is strange.

There are debate issues, but I have got personal concerns, I do worry

about the impact on my constituents when they face wrongful sanctions.

You have said that. A fellow Liberal Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg

to a general at the Somme, causing carnage amongst the troops. I am

more interested in the policy issues, are we doing the right

things? I do think the coalition was essential, we had to rescue the

country from financial problems. My own view on the issue of student

finance, we did the right thing, in accordance with the pledge, which

was to get a better system, more students are going to university,

and more from disadvantaged backgrounds. But there are issues.

But Nick Clegg survive as leader through till the next election? It

depends what odds you will give me! If you are not going to give me is,

I am not going to get! If you listen to John hemming, he has got nothing

to worry about. He does have something to worry about, they lost

300 seats, on the uniform swing, you would see people like Vince cable

and Simon Hughes lose their seats. But nobody wants to be the one to

we'll be nice, they would rather wait until after the next election,

and then rebuild the party. Yes, there is no chance of him walking

away. Somebody like Tim Farron or Vince Cable, whoever the successor

is, though have to close the dagger ten months before an election, do

they want that spectacle? If I were Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is

reasonably obvious that the left-wing voters who defect had

towards the Labour Party in 2010 will not return while he is leader.

And anything he was going to achieve historically, the already has done.

Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed Miliband or David Cameron, he has

transformed the identity of the party, they are in government. Had

it not been for him, they would have continued to be the main protest

party, rather than a party of government. So he has got to take it

all the way through until the election. If he left now, he would

look like he was a tenant in the conservative house. What we are

seeing is an operation to destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a

Liberal Democrat one, so it is chaotic. There are people who have

never really been reconciled to the coalition and to Nick Clegg, they

are pushing for this. What is Nick Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron?

-- what is Vince Cable going to do? Vince Cable is in China, on a

business trip. It is like John Major's toothache in 1990. What is

Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick Clegg, because he knows that his

best chances of being leader are as the Westland candidate, the person

who picks up the mess in a year. Vince Cable's only opportunity is on

this side of the election. But you say they are not a party of

government, but what looks more likely is overall the -- is no

overall control. You might find a common mission looking appealing.

They could still hold the balance of power. A lot of people in the Labour

Party might say, let's just have a minority government. 30 odds and

sods who will not turn up to vote. If they want to be up until 3am

every morning, be like that! When you were in short trousers, it was

like that every night, it was great fun! The Liberal Democrats will not

provide confidence to a minority government, they will pull the plug

and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg lead the Liberal Democrats into the

next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am sorry, Nick Clegg, you are

finished! We will speak to Paddy Ashdown in the second part of the

show to speak about the Liberal Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could

not deliver the promised earthquake, but it produced enough shock waves

to discombobulated the established parties. They are struggling to work

out how to deal with them. We watched it all unfold.

out how to deal with them. We Behind the scenes of any election

night is intensely busy. Those in charge of party strategy and

logistics want their people focused, working with purpose and rehearsed

to make sure their spin on the results is what viewers remember and

take on board. A bit of a buzz of activity inside the BBC's studio,

kept and primed for the results. What this does not show due is the

exterior doubles up for hospital dramas like Holby City, there are

doorways that are mock-ups of accident and emergency, but the

electorate will discover which of the parties they have put into

intensive care, which ones are coming out of recovery and which

ones are in rude health. We joined David Dimbleby. Good evening,

welcome to the BBC's new election centre. When three big beasts become

for on the political field, things have changed. Eric Pickles says we

will be seen off next year, we will see you at Westminster! This party

is going to break through next year, and you never know, we might even

hold the balance of power. Old messages that gave voters in excuses

to go elsewhere on the ballot paper exposed the older players to

questions from within their ranks. In the hen house of the House of

Commons, the fox that wants to get in has ruffled feathers. The reason

they have had amazing success, a rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna

says about being a repository, but they have also managed to sound like

human beings, and that his Nigel Farage's eight victory. For some

conservatives, a pact was the best form of defence. It would be

preferable if all members of UKIP and voters became Tories overnight.

That seems to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we need to

do something that welcomes them on board in a slightly different way.

Labour had successes, but nobody but they're wizards of Spain was

completely buying a big success story. Gaffes behind the scenes and

strategic errors were levelled at those who have managed the campaign.

They have played a clever game, you shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP

does quite well but not well enough, that helps Labour get in. That kind

of mindset will not win the general election, and we saw that in the tap

ticks and strategy, and that is why, on our leaflets for the European

elections, we chose deliberately not to attack UKIP, that was a bad

error. Not so, so somebody who has been in that spotlight. If you look

at the electoral maths, UKIP will still be aiming at the Tories in a

general election. They are the second party in Rotherham, Labour

will always hold what the room, it is safe, there is no point being

second in a safe seat. UKIP have taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they

will target. The question for the next election, can they make a

challenge? The Tories will be under the gun from UKIP. The substance of

these results is UKIP not in government, they do not have any

MPs, they do not run a single Council, at dismissing them ceased

to be an option. The question is, who will they heard most and how do

you smoke the keeper's threat? Joining me now, day about and

Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not enough was done for the elections?

No, we have very good results around Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon,

Redbridge, and we picked off council wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne

Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked on. The Ashcroft polling shows that

in key marginals, we are well ahead and on course to win in 2015. I will

be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis

of the local elections your national share of the vote would be just 31%,

only two points ahead of the Tories, only two points ahead of Gordon

Brown's disastrous performance in 2010. Why so low? National share is

one thing but I am talking about what we are doing in the key

marginals. Clearly some were taken away from others like Rotherham but

we have got many voters back. You are only two points better than you

were in 2010 and use of your worst defeat in living memory.

That is the totality. What matters is seat by seat, that is what the

Republicans found in the presidential elections. Patrick

O'Flynn, you performed well in the local election but it wasn't an

earthquake. It is definitely true that Labour did well in London but

that is a double-edged sword because you have an increasing disconnect

between the metropolis and the rest of the country. Our vote share was

somewhat depressed not just because London is one of our weakest part of

the country but because most of the warts in London were 3-member wards

and we were typically only putting up one candidate. Even when they

fared well, it still tracked down the projected national share. I

think we did well, and what was particularly good was getting the

target seat list becoming clear before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said

that basically smart folk don't vote for UKIP. I think that is a tiny

fragment of what she said. She said London is its own entity and is

increasingly different from the rest of the country. One of the things

that is different from London as opposed to Rotherham is that we have

very big parties. I have a few thousand people in mind, Rotherham

has a few hundred. People don't go and knock on doors and talk to

people, in London we have always had to do that. London is full of young

voters, full of ethnically diverse voters, that is why you are not

doing well, you don't appeal to live there. I think London in general has

a very different attitude to mass uncontrolled immigration. Londoners

know that if an immigrant moves in next door to you, to use Nigel

Farage's phrase, the world doesn't end tomorrow. People in the big

cities know that, that is the point. What Diane Abbott is doing is try to

convince London of its moral superiority so I am delighted... It

is a simple fact that immigrants do not end the world if they move in

next door. The economic recovery is getting more robust by the month,

you have a seriously to ship problem according to many people on your own

site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote is as good as it gets. Those who go

round bitching about Ed Miliband have been doing that before the

result. We have all polled very well. Ed Miliband does not polled

very well. He has actually fashioned some really effective policies.

Unemployment is tumbling, inflation is falling, growth is strengthening,

and you have a leader who claims there is a cost of living crisis and

he doesn't have a clue about his own cost of living. I think that was

poor staff work. That he doesn't know what goes in his own shopping

basket? I think his own staff could have prepared him for that. My point

is that the numbers are looking better, we know that, but people

don't feel better off. Then why are all consumer index polls better?

They are feeling confident. They may be saying that, but people are

worried about their future, their children's future. That is not what

you buy today or tomorrow. If you ask people about their future and

their children's future and prospects, they feel frightened.

What will be a good result for you in the general election? We need to

see Nigel Farage elected as an MP and he mustn't go there on his own.

How many people do you think will be with him? Who knows, but we will

have 20 to 30 target seat and if you put together the clusters we got in

last year's County elections with the one we got this year, you can

have a good guess at where they are. A number of people who voted

for you and Thursday say they are going to back to the three main

parties in general election. It would be foolish of me to say that

they are going to stay. Some have said they have just lent their votes

but voters hate being taken for granted. It is up to us to broaden

our agenda, and build on our strengths, work on our weaknesses.

Ed Miliband may have to do a deal with him. We have been here before,

but the UKIP bubble is going to burst and that may happen around the

time of Newark. Are you going to win Newark now? We are going to give it

a really good crack. We love being the underdog, we don't see it as

being the big goal -- the be all and end all. If you're going to get a

big bounce off the elections, not to go and win your shows people who

govern in Parliament, they don't vote for you. It is Labour who have

given up the campaign already so we need a really big swing in our

favour and we will give it a great crack. The bubble will burst at the

Newark by-election, trust me. Have you been to Newark? Newark will see

from local people... Where is it? It is outside the M25, I can tell you

that. My point is that we are set for victory in 2015. I want to run

this clip and get your take on it, an interview that Nigel Farage did

with LBC. What they do is they have an auditor to make sure they spend

their money in accordance with their rules. You say that is if there is

something wrong with it. Hang on, hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is

this a friend in the media or a member of the political class? Do

you regret doing that now? What were you doing? No, I was trying to get

Nigel Farage to a more important interview with Sunday Times that had

painstakingly organised. He was on there? I have told the LBC people

next door that he was running over. So you interrupted a live interview

and you don't regret that? No, because just between us I wasn't a

massive enthusiast for that interview taking place at all. I

know what James O'Brien is like and I knew it wouldn't be particularly

edifying. But your boss wasn't happy with the intervention. Sometimes the

boss gets shirty. We all upset our boss every now and again, but anyway

you could be an MEP by this time tomorrow and you won't have to do

this job any more. You can then just count your salary and your expenses.

I will make the contribution my party leader asked me to, to restore

Britain to being a self-governing country. Are you going to stay in

the job or not? I would not be able to do the job in the same way but I

would maybe have some kind of overview. We will leave it there.

Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former deputy chairman, produced a mammoth

opinion poll of more than 26,000 voters in 26 marginal

constituencies, crucial seat that will decide the outcome of the

general election next year. In 26 constituencies people were asked

which party's candidate they would support, and Labour took a healthy

12 point lead, implying a swing of 6.5% from Conservatives to Labour

from the last general election. That implies Labour would topple 83 Tory

MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in second place in four seats, and

three of them are Labour seats. Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of

those who say they would vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last

election. As many as have switched from Labour and the Lib Dems

combined. The communities Secretary Eric

Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft Paul that gives Labour a massive 12

point lead in the crucial marginal constituencies, you would lose 83

MPs if this was repeated in an election. It doesn't get worse than

that, does it? Yesterday I went through that Paul in great detail,

and what it shows is that in a number of key seats we are ahead,

and somewhere behind, and I think is Michael rightly shows... You are

behind in most of them. This is a snapshot and we have a year in which

the economy is going to be improving, and we have a year to say

to those candidates that are fighting those key seats, look, just

around the corner people are ahead in the same kind of seat as you and

we need to redouble our efforts. The Tory brand is dying in major parts

of the country, you are the walking dead in Scotland, and now London,

huge chunks of London are becoming a no-go zone for you. That's not true

with regard to the northern seats. Tell me what seats you have? In

terms of councillors we are the largest party in local government.

After four years in power... You are smiling but no political party has

ever done that. You haven't got a single councillor in the great city

of Manchester. We have councillors in Bradford and Leeds, we have

more... You haven't got an MP in any of the big cities? We have more

councillors in the north of England than Labour. A quarter of those who

say they would vote UKIP and did vote UKIP supported the Tories at

the last election. Why are so many of your 2010 voters now so

disillusioned? Any election will bring a degree of churning, and we

hope to get as many back as we can, but we also want to get Liberal

Democrats, people who voted for the Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we

concentrate on one part of the electorate, then we won't take power

and I believe we will because I believe we represent a wide spectrum

of opinion in this country and I believe that delivering a long-term

economic plan, delivering prosperity into people 's pockets will be felt.

On the basis of the local election results, you would not pick up a

single Labour seat in the general election. You make the point that it

is about local elections. Seats that Labour should have taken from us

they didn't, which is important... I am asking what possible Labour seat

you would hope to win after the results on Thursday. Local elections

are local elections. The national election will have a much bigger

turnout, it will be one year from now, we will be able to demonstrate

to the population that the trends we are seeing already in terms of the

success of our long-term economic plan, they will be feeling that in

their pockets. People need to feel secure about their jobs and feel

that their children have a future. Maybe so many of your people are

defecting to UKIP because on issues that they really care about like

mass immigration, you don't keep your promises.

We have reduced immigration and the amount of pull factors. Let me give

you the figures. You have said a couple of things are not true. You

promised to cut net immigration to under 100,000 by 2015, last year it

rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have broken your promise. We still intend

to reduce the amount from non-EU countries. I want to be clear, I

have no problem with people coming here who want to work and pay their

national insurance and tax, to help fund the health service. What I have

objection to our people coming here to get the additional benefits. You

made the promise. It is our intention to deliver it. People

defect to UKIP because mainstream politicians to -- like yourself do

not give straight answers. Can you be straight, you will not hit your

immigration target by the election, correct? We will announce measures

that. People factor. Will you hit your target? It is a year from now,

it is our intention to move towards the target. Is it your intention, do

you say you will hit your target of under 100,000 net migration by the

election? We will do our damnedest. But you will not make it. I do not

know that to be fact. They also vote UKIP cos they do not trust you and

Europe, David Cameron has promised a referendum, he has vowed to resign

if he does not deliver one, but still your voters vote for UKIP.

There were reasons why people voted for UKIP. A great deal of anger

about the political system, about the Metropolitan elite that they see

running programmes like this and the political programmes. We need to

listen to their concerns and address them. David Cameron has got a better

record on delivery. He vetoed a treaty, he stopped us having to bail

out the currency. Why are you likely to convert a night in the European

elections? If you do come third, it will show they do not trust you on

Europe. Next year, we will face a general election, about having money

in people's pockets, about who will run the country. David Davis wants

to China and get the voters to trust the Tories on the referendum, he was

the pledge to be brought forward to 2016. He is a clever guy. But if you

are going to try to negotiate a better deal to give the population a

better choice, you cannot do that in a year, you will require two years.

You are an Essex MP, you know about Essex people, it must be depressing

that they are now voting for UKIP. I do not have any UKIP in my

constituency. I felt bad to see Basildon go down and to see the

leader go down. Do you know why that is? The Tory party does not resonate

with the Essex people in the way that the Margaret Thatcher party

did. That is why you did not get a majority in 2010 and why you will

not win in 2015. We need to connect better. They will want to know about

their children's future, will they have a job, a good education? When

it comes to electing a national government, they do not want to see

Ed Miliband in office. They are voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of

what government you get, do you want to see David Cameron in number ten

or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to see David Cameron. You only got 36%

of the vote four years ago, your party, occurs you did not get the

Essex people in the same numbers, like John Major or Margaret Thatcher

did. You need more than 36% in 2015 to win the election. On Thursday,

your share was 29%. We were 2% behind Labour. They did not do very

well either. A year before, -- a year before the election in 1997,

they were on 43%. It is highly deliver the votes. We have a

campaign looking at the marginals. We know exactly where we are not

doing as well as we should be. I am a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do

you think he does this to be helpful? He is a great man and a

good conservative, I am a good friend of his. I think that his

publication was one of the best things that happened to the party.

You got 36% of the vote last time, you are down to 29, you need 38 or

39, you would get that if you had a pact with UKIP. There will be no

pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a market stall, you should put your

policies out there and you should not try to fix the market. Would you

stop a local pact? There will be no pact with UKIP. None.

It has just gone 11:35am. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland and

Northern Ireland. Coming up here, we will speak to the

Hello, and after a hectic week of coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,

Hello, and after a hectic week of elections, we're here to see where

it leaves the political landscape in the North East and Cumbria. With me

live in the studio, Gateshead's Labour MP Ian Mearns, Berwick

Conservative candidate Anne`Marie Trevelyan, and Newcastle Lib Dem

councillor David Faulkner. Also coming up: Should this market town

in Teesside become part of North Yorkshire? The people who live there

get THEIR say. And I'm in Sunderland, where the

European election results are under lock and key ready for tonight's

count. Will UKIP make the breakthrough they promised in the

North East? More from Mark shortly. Well,

there's no doubt that Labour is still the big force in North East

politics, and nothing that happened in the polling stations on Thursday

changed that. These were the scenes of jubilation in Sunderland. And

they were repeated at other town halls in the north, including

Newcastle, Gateshead, and South Tyneside, where Labour easily

retained control. But it's only part of the story. UKIP may have only won

two council seats ` both of them in Hartlepool ` but they piled up the

votes, winning a fifth of all votes across the region and coming second

to Labour in many contests. That performance should put them on

course to win their first ever European Parliamentary seat in the

North East. This was the verdict from voters in Eaglescliffe.

UKIP of course. Nigel Farage. Why is that? I don't like the way the

Conservatives are messing things around. They are saying they will do

one thing and then they do something else. UKIP. Why is that? Because I

just think they are the best party at the moment. I don't trust any of

the others. I might as well have something new. I agree with some of

his policies. I voted Labour. Why was that? Because I think they will

represent us well in Europe. UKIP. We voted UKIP. Fed up with the rest

of them. Labour. Why is that? Because I'm working class, always

voted Labour all my life. Voters in Eaglescliffe. Support like

that for UKIP was enough to deliver them two councillors in Hartlepool.

Tom Hind was one them. People are voting for UKIP this time

around simply because they are a national party with a lot of new and

positive ideas for the way the country needs to be run, and we're

beginning to resonate with the local population at large.

Well, the local Labour MP in Hartlepool, Iain Wright, said HE

believed voters had turned to UKIP as a protest against all the

established political parties. I think it probably means there is

an anti`politics feeling out there that UKIP can capitalise on. But

we've had UKIP councillors in Hartlepool before. They tend to

implode. They will probably do that again. In many respects, I think

tonight shows that Hartlepool stays on a steady course with Labour still

in control. Labour's Iain Wright. As for the

Conservatives, they kept control of Harrogate ` no surprise there ` and

held onto their seats in North Tyneside. But it was in Carlisle

where their performance arguably mattered most. It's a key battle

ground at next year's general election, and the sitting Tory MP

believes the result offered him hope of retaining his seat.

I think it's been very positive. We held the seats we hoped to hold, and

our vote has held up as well. It's a good base going forward to the

general election next year. Clearly there has been the protest vote to

the UKIP party, so we will have to see how that unravels. If I was in

the Labour camp, I'd be deeply disappointed because if the

opposition party want to be the next government, clearly they aren't

making the advances they should. John Stevenson. For the Lib Dems,

there wasn't much to shout about. They lost eight seats across the

region ` that's not as bad as it might have been. But overall, it was

a predictably disappointing set of results, which local party

candidates blamed on the national mood.

At the end of the day, we have fought this election against a

background of dismal polls, but that's politics, isn't it? I think

it will turn around. Have you got confidence in the national

leadership in Nick Clegg? He's honest. I think he's more honest

than most. I think sometimes...sometimes he might be

better saying nothing. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Let's see what our panel make of it all. According to the headlines,

another difficult night for your party. You confident Nick Clegg is

the right man? The damage to our vote caused by our association with

the Kurds server to use and the coalition has not gone down well. ``

the Conservatives. As the general election comes closer, we have to

put the case for what the Liberal Democrats have achieved in

government and what we would like to do beyond the general election in

whatever capacity that we have. But does not strike me as a ringing

endorsement. But you say stick with Nick Clegg. You lack that is what

I'm saying. The only obvious leader who can make any difference is Vince

Cable, and he does not want to do the job. If you will have him what

to do the job, would you prefer that? I have always been a Vince

Cable man. But neat clip will be written up as somebody who has been

more substantial and important than currently presented. `` Nick Clegg.

Small gains, but does this put you in the position to be the next

government? Compared to 2012 when you score 80%, it more like 60% this

time. Still dominant, but a bit of a problem. I think the UKIP effect has

had an impact on the parties. There has not been a general drift away,

there has been a real volatility in the political mix in the area with

people voting many different ways. Some Labour 's gone to UKIP and so

on. From that perspective, the UKIP impact has been volatility in the

area. York party were confident the stop `` your party were confident.

Note Ashcroft shows that over half of UKIP's voters come from the

Conservatives. Only one in seven have come from Labour. What I would

say is that this whole Thursday has been painted as a disaster for

Labour, and having won more than 2000 seats and gained 338, I don't

see how anybody could paint that is a disaster given the losses by the

Lib Dems and the Conservatives. Why is your own party criticising the

campaign and will lead our? I am bemused by that. I think the results

were robust on Thursday. You have no doubts? Witham I don't. I think Ed

Miliband is pulling together a better offer. No longer can we offer

ordinary working`class voters crimes of the table. We have to beef up our

attitude something tangible to work for an something tangible to hope

for. `` crimes of the table. On the popular vote, UKIP outpolled you.

You disappointed? Not surprising. We were aware their target was to

really pull in that disaffected Labour vote, and judging by the

numbers, I think that is what we have seen. But I suspect many people

you would have hoped vote Conservatives. What we saw in

Northumberland will begin have local elections that were running European

elections, most of the Conservative vote hasn't moved to UKIP. We lost a

group of our most right wing and your septic voters last time around,

but we haven't seen a shift since then. `` Eurosceptic. We have seen

an aggressive campaign by UKIP. Then there is that section of the

electorate that have not voted for years. Is UKIP getting levels of

voting in Northumberland that Conservatives couldn't even dream

of? Why would they will do the Conservatives and not UKIP? People

voting UKIP because they Eurosceptic have felt the Conservative Party

have not been aggressive enough, and that is the challenge of the

coalition. The Lib Dems are clearly in favour of Europe and do not want

a referendum. We have driven at a gender aggressively. Would you be

confident of holding onto Berwick? The Lib Dems are resilient. Look at

Emory is the candidate. They have been trying to win it back for

years. We were told they would be a meltdown. `` Anne`Marie. We won back

many seats in difficult circumstances. Where we are built

into the community and work hard and Sheppey in our communities, our MPs

are well known, we will do well to stop `` champions. We still do not

know the outcome of the European elections, which ` to fit in with

the rest of the continent ` aren't counted until tonight. Mark Denten

is at Sunderland, where all the North East action will be. When can

we expect to find out? Richard, hopefully, possibly, maybe before

midnight. There is reputation here in Sunderland for getting the votes

in early. We are here at a tennis centre. There is not a lot of tennis

here. I have my doubts about the wellness as well because if you look

around, there are some picky politicians biting their nails since

Thursday's European elections. Why are we waiting? Because the rest of

Europe is still in the process of voting. In the meantime, those

ballot boxes are under lock and key until we get to ten o'clock tonight

when all of the votes have been collated. The chief returning

officer will do a competent at some dreamt up by a Belgian, and we

should hopefully by midnight have the names of the three MEPs to

represent the North East. You were looking blog yourself despite tough

days. `` you are looking well. Can UKIP win in the North East?

the low `` local. Eight seat for grabs. We will be watching to see if

the BNP managed to retain their seat. Six in Yorkshire. By the end

of the night in the three regions, we will have 70 MEPs. Spare a

thought for the 165 people who will have a disappointing bank holiday

Monday because they did not get in. We have 10.5 hours until we get the

declaration. I will stay around here and keep an eye on this. The

elections would work the same without you.

And if you want to find out all the Euro election results, why not join

Mark ` and a chap called David Dimbleby ` on BBC One from 11

o'clock tonight? And last ` but certainly not least `

on the election front. Dramatic events in Copeland. Residents there

were voting in a referendum to decide if they wanted to scrap the

existing system of council leadership in favour of an elected

mayor of the sort that Middlesbrough and North Tyneside have. And mayoral

campaigners were celebrating success by a majority of more than two to

one. We are so overjoyed. We are ecstatic

at tonight's result. All we can do is say thank you again and again and

again to the people of Copeland. We will talk more about that later.

Let's talk about the European elections. Given the results in the

locals, on a scale of one to ten how sure are you that we will still have

a Conservative MEP in the North East? A seven or eight. I figured

large chunk of the Labour vote having gone to UKIP, Labour have to

get a high percentage, 35% to put the seat at risk, but I'm not a

gambling man and I would say one Labour, one UKIP and one Tory. What

would that say about Conservative support in the region? I figure

would be a great loss to the region to lose Martin as our MEP. He has

fought hard on key issues. It would be a loss for the Conservatives. He

has led the party in Europe in an incredibly determined way. He has

put forward they Eurosceptic agenda is the leader of the group

incredibly effectively. He would be a great loss. I am hopeful he will

come through and still be there tomorrow. On a scale of one to ten,

would you like a minus figure on how likely you are to keep your seat?

What are you laughing at? It ironic that it will be hard for. We are the

party that actually made an election about Europe, where is the other

parties and party leaders were spineless and decided to pretend it

was not a European election. I am proud of our party's commitment. And

strategy hasn't worked. I'm OK. I think it is important somebody

stands up for international is, working with Europe. It is not

uncritical of the EU. Any change and reform. But I'm proud that my party

and leader have stood up to Europe. You have lost the argument. But if

we have lost the argument this time, so be it. There will be a bigger

argument coming if there is a future referendum, and we will put the case

just as enthusiastically then. Would be good enough for you to retain

your one MEP you have, or do you need more? We were talking about

volatility earlier. There will be volatility in this. I am hopeful

Labour will have to sit in the European Parliament from the North

East of England. As far as the European argument, I can't give

another region to which European Union is more important. That

Sinatra and we have to have. `` that is an argument. They went on about

the cost of living crisis. David Faulkner said they would worry

people would migrate to UKIP because they were concerned about

migration. But I would say is that after European candidates have

worked hard and argued about Europe across the whole of the region, and

I think they have been trying to get across to people how important

European Union is to this region. Six of the half`dozen jobs, `` 6500

jobs, but... You think we need to have a referendum? HS2 I am not

frightened of a referendum. I'm not convinced we need to have one. You

have seats like Stockton South. Might be a good idea to talk to UKIP

so James stays in Parliament. Polls showed there was a surprisingly

strong hold in the Conservative vote their way James was working hard on

the ground. He has led the argument for putting a referendum out there

for the people, and if Labour could get off the fence and agree that

whether you vote in or out, we had it, you would see a much of the

view. Well, October has been proposed as

the date for the mayoral vote, although local MP Jamie Reed said

this weekend he wants it to be held on the same day as next year's

general election. We'll talk a bit more about that shortly, but you

might think after all the elections of recent days, people would have

had enough of voting. Not so, it seems, if you live in the market

town of Yarm on the banks of the River Tees. A local referendum will

be held next week to ask residents if they want their community to

leave Stockton and rejoin North Yorkshire. Luke Walton went to find

out more. With its magnificent Victorian

viaduct and genteel Georgian high Street, Yarm doesn't look like an

obvious hotbed of protest. But despite appearances, there is a mood

here of rebellion, with much of the anger focused on the local Stockton

council. And this is one of the reasons for the uproar. The

introduction of pay and display car parking here in the town centre. On

top of that, there's been fury about plans to remove old cobbles from the

high street and to approve hundreds of new homes. Of course grumbles

about your local council are common wherever you live, but what is

different here in Yarm is a truly radical proposal to break away from

the local authority altogether. Step forward the Yarm For Yorkshire

campaign. You don't mind if I put a poster up your window, do you? 40

years after it left the county in a reorganisation of local government,

its supporters think it is high time for its return. We don't feel

represented by Stockton Borough Council. They've mismanaged Yarm in

the past. They have done for a lot of years now. They don't know how to

manage a market town effectively. We feel our historical roots are in the

north rather than in Yorkshire. On Tuesday, the idea of swapping

Stockton Council for the Hambleton district of North Yorkshire will be

put to a vote of local residents. The owner of one of the town's

oldest family businesses is positive about the change. Yorkshire is known

in Australia, New Zealand, all over. People come to visit Yorkshire, look

at the guidebooks, and Yarm doesn't occur. It is outside Yorkshire. This

is very difficult for local businesses. Others criticised the

?4,000 cost of a referendum that is not legally binding, and question

whether change would really be for the better. It's certainly not going

to deliver the result that people want, and I'm not even convinced

Hambleton District Council is the panacea it has been painted out to

be. We will be much further away from the administrative centre,

which could potentially restrict residents' access to social

services, certainly the council services. Out on the high street, in

opinion is divided. I think we should come out of Stockton.

Stockton doesn't do anything for us. I don't know whether it would be any

better. You don't think Hambleton Distrct Council will be any better?

We're right on the end of it. North Yorkshire would be nice, but it's

more of a snobby thing, I think. OK, so you don't think there'll be much

material difference in joining it? I don't know much about it, to be

honest, but I think it's fine as it is. As far as people are concerned,

it's Yorkshire. Do you think it would be good to leave Stockton? Oh,

yeah. There's nothing good about Stockton. Just have a drive down

there and find out. Stockton Council turned down our request for an

interview. But in a statement, the Labour leader Councillor Bob Cook

said the council services were valued by most residents. He added

that all local authorities have to ensure they have proper parking

arrangements, and that they handle planning applications in line with

the national policy framework. The local Conservative MP is not

impressed. The truth is that a lot of people I speak to are frustrated

with Stockton Council. They feel they are not listening to local

communities, whether that is Yarm or elsewhere in the south of the

borough. For some, Yarm has never stopped being a white rose town. The

question now, whether it needs a vocal authority to match the symbol.

Something about local identity going on, but they could be a lot of

non`Labour voters disgruntled at the Labour council does not do much for

them. You will see that disgruntlement in most councils.

They have had disproportionate things thrust on them by the

government. It is difficult. So it is central government's fault? I

think we have to try to make the best job we can, but in those

situations where we have had huge cuts in finances, it makes

resourcing anything for any neighbourhood difficult. It is a

curious Case of democracy. Instead of fighting to win seats, you say we

will dump that council and get one more suited to us. It is a sad

reflection. It is a sad reflection that one big town is choosing this.

We see that with Berwick in hours. Northumberland council is a huge

area, and Berwick are write`up in the northern regions and feel the

council is not hearing what they are saying. I think the challenge is for

councillors to really develop a better relationship with the

community. Parking charges is clearly a driving force behind this

campaign. Talking about the elected mayor vote in Copeland, you are

against having one in Newcastle. Is there a bit of traction for this? I

am still against this. I think there is a strong feeling about the move

towards cities, regions, neighbourhoods, localities. Localism

agenda has a lot more traction. It is interesting that the Liberal

party are saying they were running the country into much of a top`down

way. I think we will see much more of this. Take you to all of our

guests. And that's about it from us. We're

not here next weekend, but rest assured we're back in a fortnight's

time with the results of an exclusive BBC survey finding out

what business in the North East and Cumbria thinks

deported. We should also review the benefits system to make it

contributory. Thank you. With that, back to you, Andrew.

Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships,

as we reported at the top of the show, and tonight it could get even

worse when we get the results of the European elections. Paddy Ashdown,

former Lib Dem leader, joins me now from our Westminster studio.

Something has to change for the Lib Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change

what will it be? The messages we have about reducing tax on the

poorest, they now have traction. We have been on many programmes of this

sort before, this idea that has been put about by these people who are

calling for a leadership election is the silliest idea I have heard in my

political career. It is not serious politics. This is the moment when we

need to get out with a really good message and campaign through the

summer in the context of the general election. Spending it on a divisive

leadership contest is ridiculous. At the very moment when our sacrifices

are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question

is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to

take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party

forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend

Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It

could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue

the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in

scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent

to the fact that they like cake, it is called Liberal Democrats like

cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling

for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens

from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it

seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including

sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would

like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been

doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the

polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you

will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut

through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking

about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me

take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in

every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or

two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of

them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to

change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election

we not only re-established our position from a base of almost

nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in

1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and

insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we

should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of

that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll

ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum

of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best

part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple

of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a

long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into

government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%

support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding

judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being

attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and

he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has

done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are

in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is

one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context

of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he

can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local

elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on

track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for

us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as

bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general

election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in

government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell

about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country

out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the

Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and

fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the

context of a general election will be far greater than you are

suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,

that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed

Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long

time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the

same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a

breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet

wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the

Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken

seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken

up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have

taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around

them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating

people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the

fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern

Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did

not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage

regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those

Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party

will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the

south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony

Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they

did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle

-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%

in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.

There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did

not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we

should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he

would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the

results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty

well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in

the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes

from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done

well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on

Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a

disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the

main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a

majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break

the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that

they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116

or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to 3% in

the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating

finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be

putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is

the line I am getting from them. The Liberal Democrats and Labour are

nowhere there, they both got 20% of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a

majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous

increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,

which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed.

David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you

know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the

bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.

Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch

into a budgeted last week, but he is not the first politician to make a

meal of it. I love a hot pasty, the choice was

to have a small one or a large one, and I opted for the large one, and

very good it was, too. The significance of the Ed Miliband

business is more about the media, we can amplify nothingness, but because

the narrative is that Ed Miliband is accident prone, even eating a big

concern which becomes an accident. He is deemed to be weird, so we find

pictures that support the conclusion. It is a class issue, you

reveal your social class by what you eat, what supermarket you go to. You

can play somebody accurately. Politicians are largely of a

different class from the voters, and as soon as you ask them about food,

it becomes apparent. To thine own self be true, David Cameron

pretending he was interested in Cornish pasties, he does the cooking

at the weekend, lots of posh food, do not pretend to be something you

are not. The problem for Ed Miliband with that picture, he has some

abnormal people working for him, but what he does not have is a broadcast

person who can spot those pictures. George Osborne hired Theo Rogers

from the BBC, she has transformed... She may have been

guilty of the burger, but she has transformed his image on TV. That is

what Ed Miliband needs. You are correct, it Ed Miliband was 15

points ahead in the polls, screwing up the eating of a bacon sandwich

would be seen as an endearing trait. We might not have even noticed it.

That is all this week, you can get those European election results with

David Dimbleby on vote went to 14 from 9pm on the BBC News Channel,

and from 11pm on BBC One. No programme next week, but we are back

in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.

This week, Britain has voted for its Members of the European Parliament.

What will the result tell us about the political mood here in Britain